Amanda+and+Jake


 * South Korea with Korean Conflict, Regionalism, and China War**


 * Plan: The United States federal government should implement a phased withdrawal of its ground troops from the Republic of Korea.**


 * U.S. presence makes North Korean provocations inevitable and guarantees our draw in**[J1]
 * Bandow, 10** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (5/3/10, Doug, “Taming Pyongyang,” [], JMP)

Suspicions continue to mount that … doing so in 2010 is bizarre.


 * Even if a conflict won’t start __… escalate__ to global nuclear war**[J2]
 * STRATFOR, 10** (5/26/10, “North Korea, South Korea: The Military Balance on the Peninsula,” [], JMP)

Managing Escalation But __no one, … the situation escalates much further.__


 * The status quo is fundamentally different – nuclear use is now likely and deterrence won’t solve**[J3]
 * Chung, 10** – Visiting Professor at the School of International Relations, Nanyang Technological University and former Professor of international relations at Seoul National University (6/1/10, Chung Chong Wook, “The Korean Crisis: Going Beyond the Cheonan Incident,” http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/Perspective/RSIS0352010.pdf)

The sinking of the Cheonan, …, premature pessimism is not advisable.


 * Reinforcing deterrence … just makes __miscalculation__ more likely**
 * Armstrong, 10 –** Professor of history and director of the Center for Korean Research at Columbia University (Charles, 5/26/10, CNN, “The Korean War never ended” [])

New York (CNN) -- The Korean … War, not start it anew.


 * And, North Korean aggression causes intentional, miscalculated, or accidental nuclear conflict – even a limited nuclear war causes rapid cooling and ozone disruption, collapses the economy, and spills over**
 * Hayes & Hamel-Green, 10** – *Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development, AND **Executive Dean of the Faculty of Arts, Education and Human Development act Victoria University (1/5/10, Executive Dean at Victoria, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia,” [])**


 * The international community is increasingly … consideration from the international community.**

Withdrawing troops is the best response to North Korea’s perception of U.S. weakness – stops it from drawing U.S. forces into a wider conflict Stanton, 10 **– U.S. Army Judge Advocate in Korea from 98-02 and practicing attorney in Washington, D.C. (4/12/10, Joshua, The New Ledger, “It's Time for the U.S. Army to Leave Korea,” [], JMP)**


 * Proceeding against the advice of …, aligns with the correct result.**

Independently, withdrawal will motivate South Korea and China to stabilize and de-nuclearize the peninsula Erickson, 10 **– Executive Director of CenterMovement.org (5/6/10, Stephen, “End the Cold War in Korea: Bring American Troops Home Before it’s Too Late,” [], JMP)**


 * On the night of March 26 … __home before it’s too late.__**

Advantage 2 is Regionalism

U.S. alliance relationships are unsustainable – …, and stop major power domination Francis, 06 **– former Australian Ambassador to Croatia and fellow at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University from 05-06 (Fall 2006, Neil, Harvard International Review, “For an East Asian Union: Rethinking Asia's Cold War Alliances,” http://hir.harvard.edu/index.php?page=article&id=1586, JMP)**


 * At the conclusion of the … a strong, independent East Asian Union.**

Regionalism is currently halfhearted – only full withdrawal solves Carpenter and Bandow 4 - *** Vice President of Defense and Foreign Studies at the Cato Institute, AND** Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute **(**Ted Galen Carpenter, 12/2004, The Korean Conundrum: America’s Troubled Relations With North and South Korea, pg 160-161)DR

The security treaties with the … **central and west-central Pacific.**


 * Regionalism solves great power wars**
 * Lee, 09** – Seoul National University (December 2009, Geun, “The Nexus between Korea’s Regional Security Options and Domestic Politics,” www.cfr.org, JMP)

Korea’s Option of Multilateral Security … __form of the U.S.-Korea alliance.__


 * Accelerating U.S. withdrawal is key to catalyze a multipolar balance of power in the region and an off-shore balancing strategy.**
 * Espiritu, 06** – Commander, U.S. Navy (3/15/06, Commander Emilson M. Espiritu, “The Eagle Heads Home: Rethinking National Security Policy for The Asia-Pacific Region,” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA448817&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf, JMP)

Can the U.S. live with the … the Eagle to head home.


 * Strengthening the East Asian regional security architecture key to solve terrorism and territorial disputes**
 * Nanto, 08** – Specialist in Industry and Trade Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division for Congressional Research Services (1/4, “East Asian Regional Architecture: New Economic and Security Arrangements and U.S. Policy,” www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33653.pdf)

__A stronger **regional security organization** …__ will exist in the future.


 * Territorial disputes draw in great powers --- causes World War 3**
 * Waldron, 97** – professor of strategy and policy at the U.S. Naval War College and an associate of the Fairbank Center for East Asian Research at Harvard (March 1997, Arthur, Commentary, “How Not to Deal with China,” EBSCO)

__MAKING THESE flash-points all … Japan--or the__ __U__nited __S__tates.


 * Advantage 3 is China**

“First Among Equals,” http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=20570, JMP)
 * The plan eases the transition to a more multipolar world –the status quo makes hegemonic decline and conflict with China inevitable**
 * Bandow, 09** – Fellow at the American Conservative Defense Alliance and Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (1/12/09, Doug,

It’s the job of military … **__smoother will be the transition.__**


 * Withdrawal solves accidental war with China and yields a nuclear free peninsula**
 * Garfinkle, 03** – taught American foreign policy and Middle East politics at the University of Pennsylvania and is editor of The National Interest (1/27/03, Adam, National Review, “Checking Kim,” http://article.nationalreview.com/267742/checking-kim/garfinkle, JMP)

NO NORMAL DIPLOMACY The U.S. finds … __it. We can help them do so.__

Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United States of America”, http://www.lamp-method.org/eCommons/Hunkovic.pdf]
 * Conflict with China will escalate to global nuclear war**
 * Hunkovic, 09 –** American Military University [Lee J, 2009, “The Chinese-Taiwanese Conflict

__A war between China, Taiwan …__ be considered in this study.

**Bandow, 09** – senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to Reagan (2/24/09, Doug, “Balancing Beijing,” EBSCO, JMP)
 * Motivating Beijing to take a greater regional role ensures its peaceful rise**

So Washington should exhibit humility … other’s economic and geopolitical ambitions.