Ethan+&+Nina

Past 2NRs

 * -Iran ptx + case**
 * -T-curtail**

US-Mexico border enforcement drives immigrants to smugglers—-this generates significant profit for violent cartels
(Alex, "Immigration Enforcement Aids Smugglers – Unaccompanied Children Edition," http://www.cato.org/blog/immigration-enforcement-aids-smugglers-unaccompanied-children-edition)//BB The increase of human smugglers transporting unauthorized immigrants to the United States is likely a AND demand for smuggling is the result of larger and more effective border enforcement.
 * Nowraseteh 14** – MS @ London School of Economics, immigration policy analyst at the Cato Institute's Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity

Limiting smuggling revenue solves cartel violence
(Colby, "Re: FORCOMMENT- Cartels and Human Smuggling/Trafficking," published on wikileaks, https://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/49/4971351_re-forcomment-cartels-and-human-smuggling-trafficking-.html)//BB The cartel war currently underway in Mexico has forced Mexican cartels∂ to look for AND , cartels will be willing to take them, for a∂ price.
 * Martin 11** – Technical Analyst @ Stratfor

Independently, US border surveillance causes cartel competition over trafficking routes—-the impact is escalating violence
(Tom, "Policy on the Edge: Failures of Border Security and New Directions for Border Control," Center for Int'l Policy, http://www.ciponline.org/research/html/failures-of-border-security-and-new-directions-for-border-control)//BB The exact correlation and configuration of forces responsible for the drug-related and organized AND organizations and gangs as they both struggle to maintain markets and trafficking corridors.
 * Barry 11** – Senior Policy Analyst @ CIP, authored or co-authored more than twenty books on Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, food aid, the United Nations, free trade and U.S. foreign policy

Reductions in cartel violence are key to energy reform
(Drug Cartels Will Challenge Energy Investors, JUAN MONTES and DUDLEY ALTHAUS, Dec. 18, 2014, http://www.wsj.com/articles/mexican-drug-cartels-pose-challenge-to-energy-investors-1418936709) As Mexico opens its energy sector to private investors after 76 years of government monopoly AND . The loss was close to $1 billion, the company said.
 * Montes and Althaus 14**

Cartels are increasingly attacking oil which is scaring off investors—-reducing cartel strength makes energy reform succeed
(Felix, Production at PEMEX "Drug Cartels Seriously Imperil Mexican Energy Reform", 2014, http://oilpro.com/post/7309/drug-cartels-seriously-imperil-mexican-energy-reform) Mexico's drug cartels are stealing billions of dollars' worth of oil from pipelines, threatening AND we Mexicans have, and I say it without shame, is Tamaulipas."
 * Sullivan 14** – Staff Engineer

Mexican energy reform's key to heg
(Joel, America's True Power In The NAFTA Century, 9/13/2013, http://www.forbes.com/sites/joelkotkin/2013/09/13/americas-true-power-in-the-nafta-century/) OK, I get it. Between George W. Bush and Barack Obama we AND .2 billion in 1993 to $291.8 billion in 2012.
 * Kotkin 13** - Professor of Urban Studies at Chapman University in California and executive editor of newgeography.com

Mexico is on the brink of a failed state
(Ted, "Watch Out, America: Mexico May Be the Next Failed State," http://nationalinterest.org/feature/watch-out-america-mexico-may-be-the-next-failed-state-12142?page=2)//BB Early in his presidency, Peña Nieto de-emphasized the confrontational strategy, returning AND in some areas of the country verge on constituting a "parallel government."
 * Carpenter 15** - senior fellow at the Cato Institute and a contributing editor at The National Interest, is the author of nine books, including The Fire Next Door: Mexico's Drug Violence and the Danger to America (2012).

Cartel violence causes Mexican collapse and US military response
(Stephen, "Strategic Horizons: All Options Bad If Mexico's Drug Violence Expands to U.S.," February 19, www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/13576/strategic-horizons-all-options-bad-if-mexico-s-drug-violence-expands-to-u-s) Over the past few decades, violence in Mexico has reached horrific levels, claiming AND the world. Quite simply, every available strategic option would be disastrous.
 * Metz 14** - Defense Analyst and author of "Iraq and the Evolution of American Strategy"

That undermines US power projection
(Robert, This Week at War: If Mexico Is at War, Does America Have to Win It?, Sept 10, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/09/10/this_week_at_war_if_mexico_is_at_war_does_america_have_to_win_it) While answering a question on Mexico this week at the Council on Foreign Relations, AND recently learned about insurgencies to stop this one from getting out of control.
 * Haddick 10** – Managing Editor of the Small Wars Journal

Heg prevents great-power war
(Zach, "America's Relative Decline: Should We Panic? The end of the unipolar era will create new dangers that the world mustn't overlook," 1-24-14, http://thediplomat.com/2014/01/americas-relative-decline-should-we-panic/) Still, China's relative rise and the United States' relative decline carries significant risks, AND powers, this will only further dampen the prospects for effective global governance.
 * Keck 14** – the Assistant Editor at The Diplomat, a researcher at the Middle East Desk at Wikistrat, and an M.A. candidate in the Department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University. Former Deputy Editor at e-International Relations; a foreign policy reporter at the Washington, D.C. edition of Examiner.com, a Joseph S. Nye, Jr. National Security Research Intern at the Center for a New American Security, a Research Assistant at the Center for Research, Regional Education and Outreach,

American Primacy de-escalates South China Sea Tensions
The United States has good reason to push back more forcefully against China's grab for AND Chinese counterparts must avoid any miscalculation that could lead to a direct confrontation.
 * NYT, 5-29** – [ New York Times: Editorial Board, 5-29-2015, The New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/30/opinion/pushback-in-the-south-china-sea.html] Jeong

Tensions escalate and go nuclear – Noko and Chinese Aggression
WASHINGTON— Will South China Sea issues trigger a third world war? While American AND the South China Sea are counterproductive and a threat to Southeast Asian prosperity.
 * Hua, 6-2** – [Shen Hua, Correspondent with VOA News, 6-2-15, Will South China Sea Dispute Lead to World War?, http://www.voanews.com/content/will-south-china-sea-dispute-lead-to-world-war/2806950.html] Jeong

Cartels are cooperating with Hezbollah to infiltrate the US
Hezbollah's expanding criminal networks have led to closer cooperation with organized crime networks, especially AND adopt Latino-sounding surnames and more easily enter the United States.21
 * Levitt 13** Matthew Levitt is the Director of the Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence, Spring 2013, "South of the Border, a Threat from Hezbollah", http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/uploads/Documents/opeds/Levitt20130515-JISA.pdf

Hezbollah has access to every Iranian conventional weapon along with WMD's
We contacted noted Bio-Warfare (BW) expert, Dr. Jill Bellamy AND provocative today, could readily become reality tomorrow if not stopped in time.
 * Gordon 14** [ Jeff - Sr. Vice President of World Encounter Institute and Sr. Editor for the New English Review. He is a former Army Intelligence officer who served during the Vietnam era. "ISIS Poses Potential Bio-Threat — But Not Equal to al Qaeda or Hezbollah", Drrichswier.com, 9/04/14, http://drrichswier.com/2014/09/04/isis-poses-potential-bio-threat-equal-al-qaeda-hezbollah/] Schuler 16

Extinction
Nathan **Myhrvold 13**, PhD in theoretical and mathematical physics from Princeton, and founded Intellectual Ventures after retiring as chief strategist and chief technology officer of Microsoft Corporation, July 2013, "Strategic Terrorism: A Call to Action," The Lawfare Research Paper Series No.2, http://www.lawfareblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Strategic-Terrorism-Myhrvold-7-3-2013.pdf A virus genetically engineered to infect its host quickly, to generate symptoms slowly— AND such weapons within the next 20 years seems to be a virtual certainty.

Border surveillance is increasing—-it's the heart of immigration enforcement
(Anil, "IMMIGRATION SURVEILLANCE," 74 Md. L. Rev. 1)//BB B. Immigration Enforcement as Immigration Surveillance These four sets of migration and mobility AND immigration reform proposals in Congress would significantly build upon these recent expansions. 168
 * Kalhan 14** – Associate Professor of Law, Drexel University. A.B., Brown University; M.P.P.M., Yale School of Management; J.D., Yale Law School

The plan doesn't link to circumvention and solves terror
(Tom, "Policy on the Edge: Failures of Border Security and New Directions for Border Control," Center for Int'l Policy, http://www.ciponline.org/research/html/failures-of-border-security-and-new-directions-for-border-control)//BB MUDDLING OF IMMIGRANTS AND TERRORISTS In his book The Closing of the American Border AND also avoid the harsh conditions and the pervasive crime of the southwestern border.
 * Barry 11** – Senior Policy Analyst @ CIP, authored or co-authored more than twenty books on Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, food aid, the United Nations, free trade and U.S. foreign policy

Plan solves— Immigration enforcement drives cartel violence
(Chloe, "BORDERLINE DEPRAVITY: THE IMPACT OF U.S. IMMIGRATION POLICY ON HUMAN SMUGGLING AT THE MEXICAN BORDER," http://digitalcommons.colby.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1740&context=honorstheses)//BB By systematically dehumanizing migrants through the implementation of∂ draconian immigration enforcement measures that encourage AND unintentionally drawn criminal cartels into∂ human smuggling at the border with Mexico.
 * Gilroy 14** – Colby College Honors Thesis, Latin American Studies

Smuggling drives cartel violence
(Chloe, "BORDERLINE DEPRAVITY: THE IMPACT OF U.S. IMMIGRATION POLICY ON HUMAN SMUGGLING AT THE MEXICAN BORDER," http://digitalcommons.colby.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1740&context=honorstheses)//BB What will become of the market for human smuggling if immigration reforms that∂ stipulate AND human cost of our current policy has become too high to do otherwise.
 * Gilroy 14** – Colby College Honors Thesis, Latin American Studies

US-Mexico border enforcement drives immigrants to smugglers—-this generates significant profit for violent cartels
(Alex, "Immigration Enforcement Aids Smugglers – Unaccompanied Children Edition," http://www.cato.org/blog/immigration-enforcement-aids-smugglers-unaccompanied-children-edition)//BB The increase of human smugglers transporting unauthorized immigrants to the United States is likely a AND demand for smuggling is the result of larger and more effective border enforcement.
 * Nowraseteh 14** – MS @ London School of Economics, immigration policy analyst at the Cato Institute's Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity

Limiting smuggling revenue solves cartel violence
(Colby, "Re: FORCOMMENT- Cartels and Human Smuggling/Trafficking," published on wikileaks, https://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/49/4971351_re-forcomment-cartels-and-human-smuggling-trafficking-.html)//BB The cartel war currently underway in Mexico has forced Mexican cartels∂ to look for AND , cartels will be willing to take them, for a∂ price.
 * Martin 11** – Technical Analyst @ Stratfor

Independently, US border surveillance causes cartel competition over trafficking routes—-the impact is escalating violence
(Tom, "Policy on the Edge: Failures of Border Security and New Directions for Border Control," Center for Int'l Policy, http://www.ciponline.org/research/html/failures-of-border-security-and-new-directions-for-border-control)//BB The exact correlation and configuration of forces responsible for the drug-related and organized AND organizations and gangs as they both struggle to maintain markets and trafficking corridors.
 * Barry 11** – Senior Policy Analyst @ CIP, authored or co-authored more than twenty books on Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, food aid, the United Nations, free trade and U.S. foreign policy

Reductions in cartel violence are key to energy reform
(Drug Cartels Will Challenge Energy Investors, JUAN MONTES and DUDLEY ALTHAUS, Dec. 18, 2014, http://www.wsj.com/articles/mexican-drug-cartels-pose-challenge-to-energy-investors-1418936709) As Mexico opens its energy sector to private investors after 76 years of government monopoly AND . The loss was close to $1 billion, the company said.
 * Montes and Althaus 14**

Cartels are increasingly attacking oil which is scaring off investors—-reducing cartel strength makes energy reform succeed
(Felix, Production at PEMEX "Drug Cartels Seriously Imperil Mexican Energy Reform", 2014, http://oilpro.com/post/7309/drug-cartels-seriously-imperil-mexican-energy-reform) Mexico's drug cartels are stealing billions of dollars' worth of oil from pipelines, threatening AND we Mexicans have, and I say it without shame, is Tamaulipas."
 * Sullivan 14** – Staff Engineer

Mexican energy reform's key to heg
(Joel, America's True Power In The NAFTA Century, 9/13/2013, http://www.forbes.com/sites/joelkotkin/2013/09/13/americas-true-power-in-the-nafta-century/) OK, I get it. Between George W. Bush and Barack Obama we AND .2 billion in 1993 to $291.8 billion in 2012.
 * Kotkin 13** - Professor of Urban Studies at Chapman University in California and executive editor of newgeography.com

Mexico is on the brink of a failed state
(Ted, "Watch Out, America: Mexico May Be the Next Failed State," http://nationalinterest.org/feature/watch-out-america-mexico-may-be-the-next-failed-state-12142?page=2)//BB Early in his presidency, Peña Nieto de-emphasized the confrontational strategy, returning AND in some areas of the country verge on constituting a "parallel government."
 * Carpenter 15** - senior fellow at the Cato Institute and a contributing editor at The National Interest, is the author of nine books, including The Fire Next Door: Mexico's Drug Violence and the Danger to America (2012).

Cartel violence causes Mexican collapse and US military response
(Stephen, "Strategic Horizons: All Options Bad If Mexico's Drug Violence Expands to U.S.," February 19, www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/13576/strategic-horizons-all-options-bad-if-mexico-s-drug-violence-expands-to-u-s) Over the past few decades, violence in Mexico has reached horrific levels, claiming AND the world. Quite simply, every available strategic option would be disastrous.
 * Metz 14** - Defense Analyst and author of "Iraq and the Evolution of American Strategy"

That undermines US power projection
(Robert, This Week at War: If Mexico Is at War, Does America Have to Win It?, Sept 10, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/09/10/this_week_at_war_if_mexico_is_at_war_does_america_have_to_win_it) While answering a question on Mexico this week at the Council on Foreign Relations, AND recently learned about insurgencies to stop this one from getting out of control.
 * Haddick 10** – Managing Editor of the Small Wars Journal

Heg prevents great-power war
(Zach, "America's Relative Decline: Should We Panic? The end of the unipolar era will create new dangers that the world mustn't overlook," 1-24-14, http://thediplomat.com/2014/01/americas-relative-decline-should-we-panic/) Still, China's relative rise and the United States' relative decline carries significant risks, AND powers, this will only further dampen the prospects for effective global governance.
 * Keck 14** – the Assistant Editor at The Diplomat, a researcher at the Middle East Desk at Wikistrat, and an M.A. candidate in the Department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University. Former Deputy Editor at e-International Relations; a foreign policy reporter at the Washington, D.C. edition of Examiner.com, a Joseph S. Nye, Jr. National Security Research Intern at the Center for a New American Security, a Research Assistant at the Center for Research, Regional Education and Outreach,

Cartels are cooperating with Hezbollah to infiltrate the US
Hezbollah's expanding criminal networks have led to closer cooperation with organized crime networks, especially AND adopt Latino-sounding surnames and more easily enter the United States.21
 * Levitt 13** Matthew Levitt is the Director of the Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence, Spring 2013, "South of the Border, a Threat from Hezbollah", http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/uploads/Documents/opeds/Levitt20130515-JISA.pdf

Hezbollah has access to every Iranian conventional weapon along with WMD's
We contacted noted Bio-Warfare (BW) expert, Dr. Jill Bellamy AND provocative today, could readily become reality tomorrow if not stopped in time.
 * Gordon 14** [ Jeff - Sr. Vice President of World Encounter Institute and Sr. Editor for the New English Review. He is a former Army Intelligence officer who served during the Vietnam era. "ISIS Poses Potential Bio-Threat — But Not Equal to al Qaeda or Hezbollah", Drrichswier.com, 9/04/14, http://drrichswier.com/2014/09/04/isis-poses-potential-bio-threat-equal-al-qaeda-hezbollah/] Schuler 16

Extinction
Nathan **Myhrvold 13**, PhD in theoretical and mathematical physics from Princeton, and founded Intellectual Ventures after retiring as chief strategist and chief technology officer of Microsoft Corporation, July 2013, "Strategic Terrorism: A Call to Action," The Lawfare Research Paper Series No.2, http://www.lawfareblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Strategic-Terrorism-Myhrvold-7-3-2013.pdf A virus genetically engineered to infect its host quickly, to generate symptoms slowly— AND such weapons within the next 20 years seems to be a virtual certainty.

Domestic armed drones in U.S. Mexico-Border is setting an international precedent- legislation key to establish a framework for modeling
Drones are proliferating at home and abroad. A new high-tech realm is AND of unverifiable CBP statistics about drone-related drug seizures and immigrant arrests.
 * Barry 2013** (Tom Barry, senior policy analyst and director of CIP's TransBorder Project, Barry specializes in immigration policy, homeland security, border security, and the outsourcing of national security. He co-founded the International Relations Center (IRC), and joined CIP in 2007. He has authored or co-authored more than twenty books on Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, food aid, the United Nations, free trade and U.S. foreign policy. These include The Great Divide: Challenge of U.S.-Mexico Relations in the 1990s (Grove Press), Feeding the Crisis: U.S. Food Aid and Farm Policy in Central America (University of Nebraska), The Next Fifty Years: The United Nations and the United States, and the award-winning Zapata's Revenge: Free Trade and the Farm Crisis in Mexico (South End Press). He has also edited volumes on foreign policy such as Global Focus: U.S. Foreign policy at the Turn of the Millennium (St. Martin's Press), Center for International Policy, "Drones Over the Homeland", http://stratrisks.com/geostrat/16739, April 23, 2013)

Those norms set a dangerous precedent – leads to global conflict escalation – especially in Asia
Taylor 2013 [Guy, "U.S. intelligence warily watches for threats to U.S. now that 87 nations possess drones", http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/nov/10/skys-the-limit-for-wide-wild-world-of-drones/?page=all] The age of the drone is here, and U.S. intelligence agencies AND . Singer. "That's not the broader norm we want out there."

Tensions escalate and go nuclear – Noko and Chinese Aggression
WASHINGTON— Will South China Sea issues trigger a third world war? While American AND the South China Sea are counterproductive and a threat to Southeast Asian prosperity.
 * Hua, 6-2** – [Shen Hua, Correspondent with VOA News, 6-2-15, Will South China Sea Dispute Lead to World War?, http://www.voanews.com/content/will-south-china-sea-dispute-lead-to-world-war/2806950.html] Jeong

Border surveillance is increasing—-it's the heart of immigration enforcement
(Anil, "IMMIGRATION SURVEILLANCE," 74 Md. L. Rev. 1)//BB B. Immigration Enforcement as Immigration Surveillance These four sets of migration and mobility AND immigration reform proposals in Congress would significantly build upon these recent expansions. 168
 * Kalhan 14** – Associate Professor of Law, Drexel University. A.B., Brown University; M.P.P.M., Yale School of Management; J.D., Yale Law School

The plan doesn't link to circumvention and solves terror
(Tom, "Policy on the Edge: Failures of Border Security and New Directions for Border Control," Center for Int'l Policy, http://www.ciponline.org/research/html/failures-of-border-security-and-new-directions-for-border-control)//BB MUDDLING OF IMMIGRANTS AND TERRORISTS In his book The Closing of the American Border AND also avoid the harsh conditions and the pervasive crime of the southwestern border.
 * Barry 11** – Senior Policy Analyst @ CIP, authored or co-authored more than twenty books on Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, food aid, the United Nations, free trade and U.S. foreign policy

Plan solves— Immigration enforcement drives cartel violence
(Chloe, "BORDERLINE DEPRAVITY: THE IMPACT OF U.S. IMMIGRATION POLICY ON HUMAN SMUGGLING AT THE MEXICAN BORDER," http://digitalcommons.colby.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1740&context=honorstheses)//BB By systematically dehumanizing migrants through the implementation of∂ draconian immigration enforcement measures that encourage AND unintentionally drawn criminal cartels into∂ human smuggling at the border with Mexico.
 * Gilroy 14** – Colby College Honors Thesis, Latin American Studies

Smuggling drives cartel violence
(Chloe, "BORDERLINE DEPRAVITY: THE IMPACT OF U.S. IMMIGRATION POLICY ON HUMAN SMUGGLING AT THE MEXICAN BORDER," http://digitalcommons.colby.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1740&context=honorstheses)//BB What will become of the market for human smuggling if immigration reforms that∂ stipulate AND human cost of our current policy has become too high to do otherwise.
 * Gilroy 14** – Colby College Honors Thesis, Latin American Studies