Kelly+and%20David


 * Contention 1 is the status quo**

Peter Symonds (writer for the Centre for Research on Globalization) June 2010 “ US consolidates occupation of Iraq” http://www.a-w-i-p.com/index.php/2010/06/10/us-consolidates-occupation-of-iraq The reality is entirely different.... most likely at Balad.”
 * The US will retain 50,000 non-combat troops after the withdrawal deadline.**

Michael **Schwartz** (Professor of Sociology and Faculty Director of the Undergraduate College of Global Studies at Stony Brook University) March **2010** “Will US troops leave Iraq in 2011?” http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/05/26-1 I was asked recently by a friend....projected US officials there.
 * Obama will cancel 2011 drawdown plans**.

Plan: The United States federal government should, under Article 24 of the Status of Forces Agreement with the Republic of Iraq, reduce its military and police presence, which is active in the Republic of Iraq after August 31, 2010.

-kelly hadn't posted this online so I just went ahead and did it. I'm not sure if this is the final version but it is what we are currently planning to read.

**Contention 2- Middle East Instability**

**Plan solves Iraq instability- 3 internal links-**

**1. Shift in policy focus** Stephen M. **Walt** ( Robert and Renée Belfer Professor of International Affairs at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government) June **2009** “ Bush's gift to Obama” [] Although often touted as.... occur before Iraq is finally stable.

The most prominent human rights.... working there have mentioned.
 * 2. Refugee crisis**
 * MHRI 5** [“First Periodical Report of Monitoring Net of Human Rights in Iraq”, http://www.brusselstribunal.org/survey111105.htm#6]

rwarchive/rwb.nsf/db900sid/SJHG-76A43X?OpenDocument) Dear Secretary Rice: As.... over the last decade.
 * That independently causes instability**
 * Hastings,07** - (8/20/07, Alcee, Chairman of the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, a U.S. Government agency that monitors progress in the implementation of the provisions of the 1975 Helsinki Accords, “Hastings concerned over Iraqi refugee crisis” http://www.reliefweb.int/

So here we are.... **new surprises** here.
 * 3. Government formation- now is uniquely key**
 * Schneller, 10** - International Affairs Fellow in Residence at the Council on Foreign Relations (Rachel Schneller, April 29, 2010, “ Iraq: A Compromise PM?” [])

in the Context of International Relations”] The Middle East conflict.... out such a possibility.
 * Middle East instability escalates**
 * Primakov, 09** [September, Yevgeny, President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation; Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences; member of the Editorial Board of //Russia in Global Affairs//. This article is based on the scientific report for which the author was awarded the Lomonosov Gold Medal of the Russian Academy of Sciences in 2008, “The Middle East Problem

Steinbach 2002 [John, Israeli Nuclear weapons: a threat to piece, 3/3 http://www.converge.org.nz/pma/mat0036.htm] lp Meanwhile, the existence of.... trigger a world conflagration ." Meghan L. O'Sullivan (Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations) March, 2010 After the Elections: Iraq's Uncertain Future [] That's the Iraq National.... focused on the 2011 timeline.
 * Nuclear war**
 * Intact Iraq government makes instability impossible**

**Contention 3- Middle East Collapse**

Raed **Jarrar** (senior fellow on the Middle East at Peace Action) and Erik Leaver (research fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies) March 20**10** “ Sliding Backwards on Iraq?” [] Last week, President Obama's.... into their own hands.
 * Iraq flip flops guts international credibility**

William C. **Martel** (associate professor of international security studies at The Fletcher School at Tufts University) July **2009** “Reprinted from USA Today” http://fletcher.tufts.edu/news/2009/op-eds/Martel_July1.shtml Sticking to deadlines boosts.... carries great strategic risks.
 * Withdrawal sends a signal that boosts credibility**

Raed **Jarrar** (Iraqi-born political analyst, and a Senior Fellow with Peace Action based in Washington, DC.) May 26, **2010** “ Don’t Reward Violence in Iraq by Extending US Troop Withdrawal Deadline” http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/05/26-1 If the Obama administration.... back to square one.
 * Iraq is key to US credibility**


 * Scenario 1- terrorism**

The U.S. Army applied.... members of the National Guard
 * US presence results in collateral damage that kills innocent civilians**
 * MHRI 5** [“First Periodical Report of Monitoring Net of Human Rights in Iraq”, http://www.brusselstribunal.org/survey111105.htm#6]

Vivienne **Walt**, Globe Correspondent. “ Bitterness grows in Iraq over deaths of civilians.” 8/4/**2003**. [] BAGHDAD -- It was 10:30 on a sweltering.... brother was killed July 9.
 * Perception of indefinite presence creates Anti-Americanism**

Devin Hartman, Writer for the University Wire. 4/24/ 2007 . “Ending terrorism involves more than fighting a war.” Terrorism prevention is instantly.... be strongly diminished.
 * Leads to terrorism**

Schwartz-Morgan 2001 (Nicole- Asst. Prof., Politics and Economics, Royal Military College of Canada,” Wild Globalization and Terrorism: Three Scenarios,” World Future Society, @http://www.wfs.org/mmmorgan.htm) The terrorist act can.... themselves merchants or terrorists.
 * Nuclear war**


 * Scenario 2- Heg**

The invasion of Iraq.... They strike back."
 * Low credibility increases opposition- crushes US influence**
 * Arnove**, BA from Oberlin College, and a MA and Ph.D. from Brown University, Rhode Island, where he studied in the Modern Culture and Media Program, **2006** (Anthony, “The Logic of Withdrawal The eight reasons why leaving Iraq now is the only sensible option”, [])

Withdrawal from foreign commitments.... a few fortified enclaves.”23
 * Short term credibility collapse ensures US draw in and nuclear escalation**
 * Lieber 2005** – PhD from Harvard, Professor of Government and International Affairs at Georgetown, former consultant to the State Department and for National Intelligence Estimates (Robert, “The American Era”, pages 53-54, WEA)

**Transition away from Heg causes nuclear war** **Khanna, ’09** – Director of the Global Governance Initiative at the New America Foundation (Parag, //The second world: how emerging powers are redefining global competition in the twenty-first century//, p. 337-338) Even this scenario is optimistic....the next world war.67

**Even if decline’s inevitable maintaining Heg key to peaceful transition** **Khanna, ’09** – Director of the Global Governance Initiative at the New America Foundation (Parag, //The second world: how emerging powers are redefining global competition in the twenty-first century//, p. 337-338) Even this scenario is optimistic....before the next world war.67

Bradley A. Thayer, November/December, 2006 “In Defense of Primacy,” NATIONAL INTEREST Issue 86 THROUGHOUT HISTORY, peace and stability.... the equivalent of a blitzkrieg.
 * Heg makes war impossible**

William Wohlforth (professor of government at Dartmouth College) 2009 “ Unipolarity, Status Competition, and Great Power War”Project Muse The upshot is a near.... tend to be zero sum .9
 * A multipolar world makes conflict inevitable- prefer validated evidence**