Michael+Cerny+&+Ethan+Muse

Aff: S&ED


 * We intend on reading different disadvantages according to the team we are debating. We will disclose the advantages we are reading as soon as pairings are released. Sorry for any inconvenience.**
 * Strategic Mistrust will always be in the 1NC -** __either__ **Cyber** __or__ **Economy would be the alternative advantages**

=__**Aff cites:**__= = =

**Strategic mistrust is fueling multiple flashpoints within the region – high level talks are necessary to avoid they escalate**
Zhao 2015 - Professor and Director of the Center for China–US Cooperation at Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver Suisheng, "A New Model of Big Power Relations? China–US strategic rivalry and balance of power in the Asia–Pacific," Journal of Contemporary China Volume 24, Issue 93, 2015, p 377-397 The Asia–Pacific region has become a test ground to determine whether China and AND become one of the most dangerous flashpoints in the twenty-first century.

**Containment drives China to fracture US alliances and risks nuclear war – only cooperation can solve**
Ilamn 2016 - Currently works in Pacivis (Global Civil Society Research Center) of U of Indonesia Zidy, "Is the South China Sea the Stage for the Next World War?," Jul 3, nationalinterest.org/feature/the-south-china-sea-the-stage-the-next-world-war-16833?page=show What is happening today is that China has gathered enough power and is becoming powerful AND States to reverse the negative trend, she surely has much to do.

**Now is a unique moment – China is likely to use force post the Hague ruling in fishing disputes**
Johnson 2016 - senior reporter covering energy for Foreign Policy Keith, "Can Indonesia Afford a Fish War with China?," Jul 8, foreignpolicy.com/2016/07/08/can-indonesia-afford-a-fish-war-with-china/ In recent years, Indonesia has tried to stay above the fray as other countries AND to push back ,” Medeiros said, “ that affects China’s strategic calculation.”

**This //Maritime Militia// will spark a war that escalates**
Chao 2016 - international relations doctoral student (Mellon Ethnopolitics Fellow) in Political Science @ UPenn Brian C, "Coast Guards Could Accidentally Spark War in the South China S," Jun 28, nationalinterest.org/feature/coast-guards-could-accidentally-spark-war-the-south-china-16766?page=show Chinese activities in the China Seas over the past few years have caused growing consternation AND regardless of whether the hulls are battleship grey or coast-guard white.

**Only having open channels of communication can prevent this version of the Thucydides Trap from going nuclear**
Lam Peng Er 2016 - Senior Research Fellow, East Asian Institute "China, the United States, Alliances, and War: Avoiding the Thucydides Trap?," Asian Affairs: An American Review Volume 43, Issue 2, 2016, p. 36-36 That the intelligentsia in the United States and China openly ponder and hold a conversation AND will place tremendous stress on crisis management between the United States and China.

**S&ED creates the channels necessary to ensure cooperation in moments tension**
Garrison 2016 – Director of International Studies @ University of Wyoming Jean and Marc Wall, "The Rise of Hedging and Regionalism: An Explanation and Evaluation of President Obama's China Policy," Asian Affairs: An American Review Volume 43, Issue 2, 2016, p 47-63 With each flare-up in tensions, cooler heads in both capitals stepped in AND , no-nonsense approach to maintain overall stability and manage ongoing tensions.

**An extension of S&ED that includes higher level officials ensures that mistrust stays in check**
Dai 2016 - Former State Councilor of China Bingguo, "On Building a New Model of Major-Country Relations Between China and the United States," Jun 20, [|www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjb_663304/zzjg_663340/bmdyzs_664814/xwlb_664816/t1350752.shtml] For the past decades, China and the US have basically sticked to the path AND The path will be bumpy, but it leads to a bright future.

**By developing already existing mechanisms, the plan solves any alt causes**
Yung 2016 - Donald Bren Chair of Non-Western Strategic Thought at the U.S. Marine Corps University Christopher and Wang Dang, "THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA CAN GET ALONG IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA," Jul 6, warontherocks.com/2016/07/the-united-states-and-china-can-get-along-in-the-south-china-sea/ China and the United States have fundamentally different philosophies about the nature and meaning of AND maritime interests may vary, the joint interest in preserving stability remains paramount.

**S&ED is critical for a framework regarding cyber attacks**
Shen 2016 - professor and Vice Dean at the Institute of International Studies, Fudan University Dingli, "Strategic Dialogue Advances Partnership, with a Limit," Jun 14, www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/strategic-dialogue-advances-partnership-with-a-limit/ China-US **s**trategic **and e**conomic **d**ialogue has been a vehicle to advance bilateral collaboration AND efficiently. All these would boost the confidence of each in the other.

**Cyber-attacks are increasing in severity and frequency; current checks are insufficient**
Zheng 2016 Anjie, "Regulators to Tighten Cyberdefenses as Attacks in Asia Increase," Jun 14, www.wsj.com/articles/regulators-to-tighten-cyberdefenses-as-attacks-in-asia-increase-1465899792 Losses from such incidents are particularly steep in Asia because regulations on cybersecurity and disclosure AND with cyberattacks, and more are likely to be targeted, consultants say.

**And, Iran is developing asymmetric cyber capabilities to counter the US**
Harris 2014 - senior staff writer at Foreign Policy, covering intelligence and cyber security Shane, "Forget China: Iran’s Hackers Are America’s Newest Cyber Threat," Feb 18, foreignpolicy.com/2014/02/18/forget-china-irans-hackers-are-americas-newest-cyber-threat/ For several years, Iran was believed to possess the ambition to launch disruptive attacks AND of the armed forces’ general staff, according to Iran’s Tasnim news agency.

**And the hardliners are using those capabilities to attack US infrastructure**
Thompson 2016 Mark, "Iranian Cyber Attack on New York Dam Shows Future of War," time.com/4270728/iran-cyber-attack-dam-fbi/ The first nationstate warfare took place between soldiers on the ground, and then ships AND could cause severe harm to the U.S. economy and citizens.”

**Further development of asymmetric capabilities results in either a miscalculated Middle East war OR cybercriminals get the codes**
Runkle 2016 - served as in the Defense Department, as a Director on the National Security Council, as a Professional Staff Member on the House Armed Services Committee, and as a consultant in DHS’s Office of Cybersecurity and Communications Benjamin, "2016: THE YEAR OF THE GREAT MIDDLE EAST CYBERWAR?," Jan 28, warontherocks.com/2016/01/2016-the-year-of-the-great-middle-east-cyberwar/ However, it is unlikely that these tensions will escalate into a shooting war in AND event of a rapid escalation of the emerging Saudi–Iranian cold war.

**That’ll go nuclear**
Libicki 2014 – PhD, Senior Management Scientist; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School, participated in Track II diplomacy with China on cybersecurity issues Martin, “Dealing with Cyberattacks,” in //A Dangerous World?: Threat Perception and U.S. National Security//, p. 125-133 //The unalloyed bad news is that Iran is starting to see cyberwarfare as deniable terrorism// AND //attack makes the transition to nuclear warfare more//, not less, //likely//.

**The global economy is weak – and central banks are running out of tricks to keep it from collapsing**
Bartholomeusz 7/11 - Business Spectator Columnist for The Australian Business Review Stephen, "A trap for the global economy?," www.theaustralian.com.au/business/a-trap-for-the-global-economy/news-story/6e438ea2280cc55328742f8bfe5fe001 The challenges facing Bank of England Governor Mark Carney as he responds to the Brexit AND discernible positive effects, the central banks would have little capacity to respond. Frisbie 16 (John, USCBC president, press release, The US-China Business Council (USCBC) is a private, nonpartisan, nonprofit organization of roughly 220 American companies that do business with China. For over four decades, USCBC has provided unmatched information, advisory, advocacy, and program services to its membership. Through its offices in Washington, DC; Beijing; and Shanghai, USCBC is uniquely positioned to serve its members' interests in the United States and China, 6/7/16, https://www.uschina.org/media/press/us-china-business-council-president-john-frisbie-released-following-comments-upon-close)//ml US-C hina B usiness C ouncil President John Frisbie made the following statements on Brexit's impact AND the S&ED and other engagement pay off at times like these."
 * Brexit causes uncertainty the global economy, especially for China – US-China S&ED is key to solve **

**S&ED is the only forum for officials from both countries to work on stabilizing the global economy while maintaining US economic leadership**
Lew 2016 - U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Jack, "America and the Global Economy: The Case for US Leadership," Foreign Affairs, May/June Issue The relationship between the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies, AND even stronger platform for navigating the economic and financial landscape of the future.

**That solves a host of existential threats**
Lew 2016 - U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Jack, "America and the Global Economy: The Case for US Leadership," Foreign Affairs, May/June Issue But the difficulty in securing approval should not have been a complete surprise. The AND in the IMF, the World Bank, and the G-20.

**Second, Even if progress isn’t made, it __sends a perception__ that calms economic turmoil**
Hormats 2015 - is vice chairman at Kissinger Associates and former U.S. under secretary of state for economic growth, energy, and the environment Robert D, "On Economic Fronts, the U.S. and China Are Stronger Together," Sep 21, foreignpolicy.com/2015/09/21/on-economic-fronts-the-u-s-and-china-are-stronger-together-xi-jinping-visit/ The broader point here is not to suggest that the leaders dissect or debate the AND avoid one country reacting to a misreading of the other’s policies or intentions.

**That prevents war from breaking out**
Kumar ’15 (Kalyan Kumar is a staff writer for the Australian branch of the International Business Times, 11/17/15, “Economic collapse of big economies like US and China may trigger war, says financial analyst Warren Pollock” [] Poetic Justice) Leading American financial analyst Warren Pollock has warned that the US will slip into the AND They have their heads in their asses in the Pentagon," he added.

**The S&ED is essential for implementing structural reforms that allow for sustained Chinese growth**
Hong 6/8 (Zou Hong is a staff writer for China Daily, “China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue: Structural reforms to aim for stable growth” 6/8/16, [] Poetic Justice) China and the United States reached dozens of agreements in such fields as policy coordination AND is prepared for a possible U.S. Federal Reserve rate increase.

**A collapsed Chinese economy is one that invites belligerence and causes war**
Dobell 2016 - Journalism Fellow at the Lowy Institute Graeme, "The Biggest China 'Threat': War in the South China Sea or Economic Meltdown?," Jul 5, nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-biggest-china-threat-war-the-south-china-sea-or-economic-16843?page=show If China’s future course is the vital question, the answers in economy-world AND the South China Sea stays closer to the teacup end of the scale.

Plan
====**The United States federal government should diplomatically engage the People’s Republic of China by offering to indefinitely extend and include higher-level officials at the Strategic and Economic Dialogue including the President of the United States, the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, the President of the People's Republic of China, and the Chairman of China's Central Military Commission.**====

**The eighth and final round of Strategic and Economic Dialogue concluded in June, opening channels for communication and cooperation on a litany of issues**
Shen 2016 - professor and Vice Dean at the Institute of International Studies, Fudan University Dingli, "Strategic Dialogue Advances Partnership, with a Limit," Jun 14, www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/strategic-dialogue-advances-partnership-with-a-limit/ China and the US have just conducted their eighth round of Strategic and Economic Dialogue AND was rich in ideological confrontation but lacked economic and people-based cooperation.

**Scheduling the next round now signals commitment and allows for changes making for more effective discussions**
Reade 2016 - Senior Associate with the Freeman chair in China Studies @ CSIS Claire, "The U.S.-China S&ED: Time to Tinker, Not to Toss," Jun 27, https://www.csis.org/analysis/us-china-sed-time-tinker-not-toss The last U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED AND  impressive S&ED gathering, while increasing the effectiveness of the effort.

**Upgrading the SED to include presidential dialogue sets a clear agenda and builds crisis management mechanisms**
Rudd 2015 - Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs & Former Prime Minister, Australia Kevin, "US-China 21: The Future of US-China Relations Under Xi Jinping," belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Summary%20Report%20US-China%2021.pdf Beyond the two countries’ embassies, the principal mechanism for managing the breadth and depth AND

周恩来 ). This is now necessary because the stakes today are even higher.

-

= = __ Neg Cites: __ ( italicized arguments are not permitted in the tournament and will not be read)

**Versus Taiwan (Wave 1 style):**

**1NC - Xi Good, Appeasement (on case), Allied Prolif, Elections - 2NR - Allied Prolif (Appeasement on case)**

**Versus Arctic:**

**1NC - Xi Good, //Republic of India Space Cooperation Counterplan//, UNCLOS Counterplan, Elections, Appeasement - 2NR - Xi Good (x1) AND //India Counterplan// and Elections (x2)**

**Versus ISS:**

**1NC - Space Leadership DA, Prolif DA, Elections - 2NR - Space Leadership DA + Mars Col impact**    **2NRs - Elections, UNCLOS CP, Appeasement, Japan DA, Spanos K, Russia war case turn**



Strategic mistrust is fueling multiple flashpoints within the region – high level talks are necessary to avoid they escalate
Zhao 2015 - Professor and Director of the Center for China–US Cooperation at Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver Suisheng, "A New Model of Big Power Relations? China–US strategic rivalry and balance of power in the Asia–Pacific," Journal of Contemporary China Volume 24, Issue 93, 2015, p 377-397 The Asia–Pacific region has become a test ground to determine whether China and AND become one of the most dangerous flashpoints in the twenty-first century.

Containment drives China to fracture US alliances and risks nuclear war – only cooperation can solve
Ilamn 2016 - Currently works in Pacivis (Global Civil Society Research Center) of U of Indonesia Zidy, "Is the South China Sea the Stage for the Next World War?," Jul 3, nationalinterest.org/feature/the-south-china-sea-the-stage-the-next-world-war-16833?page=show What is happening today is that China has gathered enough power and is becoming powerful AND States to reverse the negative trend, she surely has much to do.

Now is a unique moment – China is likely to use force post the Hague ruling in fishing disputes
Johnson 2016 - senior reporter covering energy for Foreign Policy Keith, "Can Indonesia Afford a Fish War with China?," Jul 8, foreignpolicy.com/2016/07/08/can-indonesia-afford-a-fish-war-with-china/ In recent years, Indonesia has tried to stay above the fray as other countries AND to push back ,” Medeiros said, “ that affects China’s strategic calculation.”

This //Maritime Militia// will spark a war that escalates
Chao 2016 - international relations doctoral student (Mellon Ethnopolitics Fellow) in Political Science @ UPenn Brian C, "Coast Guards Could Accidentally Spark War in the South China S," Jun 28, nationalinterest.org/feature/coast-guards-could-accidentally-spark-war-the-south-china-16766?page=show Chinese activities in the China Seas over the past few years have caused growing consternation AND regardless of whether the hulls are battleship grey or coast-guard white.

Only having open channels of communication can prevent this version of the Thucydides Trap from going nuclear
Lam Peng Er 2016 - Senior Research Fellow, East Asian Institute "China, the United States, Alliances, and War: Avoiding the Thucydides Trap?," Asian Affairs: An American Review Volume 43, Issue 2, 2016, p. 36-36 That the intelligentsia in the United States and China openly ponder and hold a conversation AND will place tremendous stress on crisis management between the United States and China.

S&ED creates the channels necessary to ensure cooperation in moments tension
Garrison 2016 – Director of International Studies @ University of Wyoming Jean and Marc Wall, "The Rise of Hedging and Regionalism: An Explanation and Evaluation of President Obama's China Policy," Asian Affairs: An American Review Volume 43, Issue 2, 2016, p 47-63 With each flare-up in tensions, cooler heads in both capitals stepped in AND , no-nonsense approach to maintain overall stability and manage ongoing tensions.

An extension of S&ED that includes higher level officials ensures that mistrust stays in check
Dai 2016 - Former State Councilor of China Bingguo, "On Building a New Model of Major-Country Relations Between China and the United States," Jun 20, [|www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjb_663304/zzjg_663340/bmdyzs_664814/xwlb_664816/t1350752.shtml] For the past decades, China and the US have basically sticked to the path AND The path will be bumpy, but it leads to a bright future.

By developing already existing mechanisms, the plan solves any alt causes
Yung 2016 - Donald Bren Chair of Non-Western Strategic Thought at the U.S. Marine Corps University Christopher and Wang Dang, "THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA CAN GET ALONG IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA," Jul 6, warontherocks.com/2016/07/the-united-states-and-china-can-get-along-in-the-south-china-sea/ China and the United States have fundamentally different philosophies about the nature and meaning of AND maritime interests may vary, the joint interest in preserving stability remains paramount.

S&ED is critical for a framework regarding cyber attacks
Shen 2016 - professor and Vice Dean at the Institute of International Studies, Fudan University Dingli, "Strategic Dialogue Advances Partnership, with a Limit," Jun 14, www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/strategic-dialogue-advances-partnership-with-a-limit/ China-US **s**trategic **and e**conomic **d**ialogue has been a vehicle to advance bilateral collaboration AND efficiently. All these would boost the confidence of each in the other.

Cyber-attacks are increasing in severity and frequency; current checks are insufficient
Zheng 2016 Anjie, "Regulators to Tighten Cyberdefenses as Attacks in Asia Increase," Jun 14, www.wsj.com/articles/regulators-to-tighten-cyberdefenses-as-attacks-in-asia-increase-1465899792 Losses from such incidents are particularly steep in Asia because regulations on cybersecurity and disclosure AND with cyberattacks, and more are likely to be targeted, consultants say.

And, Iran is developing asymmetric cyber capabilities to counter the US
Harris 2014 - senior staff writer at Foreign Policy, covering intelligence and cyber security Shane, "Forget China: Iran’s Hackers Are America’s Newest Cyber Threat," Feb 18, foreignpolicy.com/2014/02/18/forget-china-irans-hackers-are-americas-newest-cyber-threat/ For several years, Iran was believed to possess the ambition to launch disruptive attacks AND of the armed forces’ general staff, according to Iran’s Tasnim news agency.

And the hardliners are using those capabilities to attack US infrastructure
Thompson 2016 Mark, "Iranian Cyber Attack on New York Dam Shows Future of War," time.com/4270728/iran-cyber-attack-dam-fbi/ The first nationstate warfare took place between soldiers on the ground, and then ships AND could cause severe harm to the U.S. economy and citizens.”

Further development of asymmetric capabilities results in either a miscalculated Middle East war OR cybercriminals get the codes
Runkle 2016 - served as in the Defense Department, as a Director on the National Security Council, as a Professional Staff Member on the House Armed Services Committee, and as a consultant in DHS’s Office of Cybersecurity and Communications Benjamin, "2016: THE YEAR OF THE GREAT MIDDLE EAST CYBERWAR?," Jan 28, warontherocks.com/2016/01/2016-the-year-of-the-great-middle-east-cyberwar/ However, it is unlikely that these tensions will escalate into a shooting war in AND event of a rapid escalation of the emerging Saudi–Iranian cold war.

That’ll go nuclear
Libicki 2014 – PhD, Senior Management Scientist; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School, participated in Track II diplomacy with China on cybersecurity issues Martin, “Dealing with Cyberattacks,” in //A Dangerous World?: Threat Perception and U.S. National Security//, p. 125-133 //The unalloyed bad news is that Iran is starting to see cyberwarfare as deniable terrorism// AND //attack makes the transition to nuclear warfare more//, not less, //likely//.

Plan
====The United States federal government should diplomatically engage the People’s Republic of China by offering to indefinitely extend and include higher-level officials at the Strategic and Economic Dialogue including the President of the United States, the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, the President of the People's Republic of China, and the Chairman of China's Central Military Commission.====

The eighth and final round of Strategic and Economic Dialogue concluded in June, opening channels for communication and cooperation on a litany of issues
Shen 2016 - professor and Vice Dean at the Institute of International Studies, Fudan University Dingli, "Strategic Dialogue Advances Partnership, with a Limit," Jun 14, www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/strategic-dialogue-advances-partnership-with-a-limit/ China and the US have just conducted their eighth round of Strategic and Economic Dialogue AND was rich in ideological confrontation but lacked economic and people-based cooperation.

Scheduling the next round now signals commitment and allows for changes making for more effective discussions
Reade 2016 - Senior Associate with the Freeman chair in China Studies @ CSIS Claire, "The U.S.-China S&ED: Time to Tinker, Not to Toss," Jun 27, https://www.csis.org/analysis/us-china-sed-time-tinker-not-toss The last U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED AND  impressive S&ED gathering, while increasing the effectiveness of the effort.

Upgrading the SED to include presidential dialogue sets a clear agenda and builds crisis management mechanisms
Rudd 2015 - Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs & Former Prime Minister, Australia Kevin, "US-China 21: The Future of US-China Relations Under Xi Jinping," belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Summary%20Report%20US-China%2021.pdf Beyond the two countries’ embassies, the principal mechanism for managing the breadth and depth AND 周恩来 ). This is now necessary because the stakes today are even higher.