Aaron+&+Jeremy

=When we Affirm the Rez= toc
 * 1ac **

**Plan**
Plan: The United States federal government should normalize trade relations with Cuba.

**Advantage 1 is transition**

 * Cuban reforms are inevitable but the loss of external investment risks economic and social collapse – offering normal trade relations is vital**
 * Ashby 13**, Senior Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs. He served in the U.S. Commerce Department's International Trade Administration as Director of the Office of Mexico and the Caribbean and acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of Commerce for the Western Hemisphere(Timothy, "Preserving Stability in Cuba After Normalizing Relations with the United States – The Importance of Trading with State-Owned Enterprises" 3/29/13, Council on Hemispheric Affairs, http://www.coha.org/preserving-stability-in-cuba-timothy-ashby/)//AD//

//Cuba under Raúl Castro has entered a new period of economic, social, and// //AND// //-way trade must include both Cuba’s private sector as well as SOEs.//

//**Cuban collapse destroys the global war on terror and makes conflicts in hotspots around the globe more likely**// //**Gorrell, 5 -** Lieutenant Colonel, US Army, paper submitted for the USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT (Tim, “CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS?” [] **GWOT=Global War on Terrorism**//

//Regardless of the succession, under the current U.S. policy, Cuba’s// //AND// //in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro Cuba?//

//**Hotspots all risk escalation to global nuclear war**// //** Bosco 2006 ** (a senior editor at Foreign Policy magazine, David, July 2006, “Forum: Keeping an eye peeled for World War III” [])//

//The understanding that small but violent acts can spark global conflagration is etched into the// //AND// //not even a hint that France, Russia or China would respond militarily.//

//**Korean war goes nuclear**// //** STRATFOR ‘10 ** (International Think Tank, “North Korea, South Korea: The Military Balance on the Peninsula,” http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100526_north_korea_south_korea_military_balance_peninsula, May 26, 2010)// //So the real issue is the potential for escalation — or an accident that could// //AND// //tested in the way they might be if the situation escalates much further.//

//**Africa war escalates**// //** Glick ‘7 **- Senior Middle East Fellow – Center for Security Policy (Caroline, “Condi’s African Holiday”, 12-12, [|http://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/home.aspx?sid=56&categoryid=56&subcategoryid=90&newsid=11568])//

//The Horn of Africa is a dangerous and strategically vital place. Small wars,// //AND// //states of Eritrea, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan and Kenya.//

//**Central Asia war would trigger WWIII**// //F. William ** Engdhal **, Global Research Associate, 10/11/** 08 **, “The Caucasus —Washington Risks nuclear war by miscalculation” http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=9790//

//So far, each step in the Caucasus drama has put the conflict on a// //AND// //insistence on pushing NATO and its missile defense right up to Russia’s door.//

//**Independently, enforcing the embargo itself undermines the war on terror**// //**Johnson, et al, 10** – Andy Johnson is a director in the national security program at The Third Way (“End the Embargo of Cuba”, The National Security Program, 9/6/10, [|http://content.thirdway.org/publications/326/Third_Way_Memo_-_End_the_Embargo_of_Cuba.pdf)//EX]//

//Keeping the embargo in place requires that the US government devote time and resources to// //AND// //in the Western Hemisphere bureau to initiate a new path for engaging Cuba.//

//**Greater focus and resources to counter-terrorism is vital – WMD terrorism risks are increasing**// //**Clark, 13 -** Bruce Clarke is a retired Army Colonel with extensive strategic, operational and tactical experience. He is widely published on a myriad of strategic and operational subjects. Immediately prior to his retirement from the Army, Colonel Clarke was the Director of US National Security Studies at the US Army War College(Bruce, The Examiner, “ The end to the war on terrorism--really?” 5/28, [])//

//I have been struck by the response to what my liberal friends call President Obama’s// //AND// //, Hezbollah or Iran's Revolutionary Guards will use them when they get them.//

//**This risks extinction**// // Ayson 10 - Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington// //(Robert, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 33.7, InformaWorld)//BB

But these two nuclear worlds—a non-state actor nuclear attack and a AND be admitted that any preemption would probably still meet with a devastating response.

**Advantage 2 is Multilateralism**

 * US leadership is unsustainable without a highly visible commitment to multilateralism**
 * Lake, 10–** Professor of Social Sciences, distinguished professor of political science at UC San Diego (David A., “Making America Safe for the World: Multilateralism and the Rehabilitation of US authority”, [|__http://dss.ucsd.edu/~dlake/documents/LakeMakingAmericaSafe.pdf__])//NG//

//The safeguarding of US authority requires multilateralism that is broader and certainly deeper than in// //AND// //last half-century and extend it to new areas of the globe.// //The advanced military capabilities of the United States will make it a key actor in// //AND// //political order so that they can provide a meaningful check on US authority.// //Americans are likely to resist the idea of tying their hands more tightly in a// //AND// //on US foreign policy may appear too high a price to bear. 49// //But if the United States is to remain the leader of the free world// //AND// //own self-interest, lead the way to a new world order.//

//**The plan is a powerful symbol of that commitment**// //**Burgsdorff, 9–** Ph. D in Political Science from Freiburg University, EU Fellow at the University of Miami (Sven Kühn von, “Problems and Opportunities for the Incoming Obama Administration”, [|__http://aei.pitt.edu.proxy.lib.umich.edu/11047/1/vonBurgsdorfUSvsCubalong09edi.pdf__])//NG

6.3 How would the international community react? At international level all major AND it would be interpreted by the international community as steps towards effective multilateralism.

//**The plan solves Latin America relations**// //**White, 13**// (Robert, Op-ed contributor to the New York Times, “After Chávez, a Chance to Rethink Relations with Cuba,” 3/7/13, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/08/opinion/after-chavez-hope-for-good-neighbors-in-latin-america.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0, MDM) FOR most of our history, the United States assumed that its security was inextricably AND cooperating in matters of common concern would be reduced to a historical footnote.

//**Latin America relations are vital to leadership in a multilateral context**// //**S****abatini and Berger 2012**// – editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly and senior director of policy at AS/COA, policy associate at the AS/COA [Christopher and Ryan, “Why the U.S. can't afford to ignore Latin America”, June 13th, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/06/13/why-the-u-s-cant-afford-to-ignore-latin-america //cc]// //Speaking in Santiago, Chile, in March of last year, President Obama called// //AND// //the use of their territory as a transit point for drugs heading north.//

//** The alternative to multilateralism is unilateral militarism – the plan establishes a model for hemispheric diplomacy that sustains US leadership **// //** Grandin 10 ** – teaches history at New York University and is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences (Greg, “Empire's Senescence: U.S. Policy in Latin America,”// New Labor Forum//, 19:1, Winter 2010, pg. 14-23)//SJF

Washington’s relations with Latin America—particularly in terms of the gap between what its AND would be meaningless without Brazil, South America’s largest and most dynamic economy. The U.S. would scale back its military operations in Colombia—including AND power, and political paralysis quicken the U.S.’s fall.

At the international political level, President Obama sees resuming relations with Cuba as a AND decline in the greater global order bringing true peace for years to come.
 * The plan creates a credible model for multilateral conflict resolution**
 * Dickerson 10 **– Lieutenant Colonel, US Army, paper submitted in fulfillment of a Master of Strategic Studies Degree at the US Army War College (Sergio M, “UNITED STATES SECURITY STRATEGY TOWARDS CUBA,” 1/14/10, http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a518053.pdf)//SJF

¶ Unilateralism is the wrong approach for American Diplomacy. There is nothing to suggest AND us. Now is the time to create rather than divide common ground.
 * Reliance on unilateralism will collapse US leadership and cause global wars with weapons of mass destruction**
 * Montalván, 10** - a 17-year veteran of the U.S. Army including multiple combat tours in Iraq, master's of science from Columbia University's Graduate School of Journalism (Luis, “Multilateralism is Essential for Peace in the 21st Century” Huffington Post, 4/23, [])

**Solvency**
¶ The option with the greatest possibility of success and reward for the United States AND guides her onto a path that will benefit the nations of the Americas.
 * The unconditional offer of normal trade relations boosts US-Cuban relations and fosters a stable transition**
 * Koenig, 10** – US Army Colonel, paper submitted for a Masters in Strategic Studies at the US Army War College (Lance, “Time for a New Cuba Policy” [])

Vivanco 6 - LLM from Harvard Law School, Americas director of Humans Rights Watch (Jose Miguel, “Restraint, not force, will bring change to Cuba”, humans rights watch, 12/22/06, [], google scholar)//KW// //This reluctance would be understandable but misguided. Most Cubans do want change. If// //AND// //when the US stops acting like Goliath will Cuba stop looking like David.//
 * Any step short of unconditional removal means won’t create the same symbol of multilateralism**


 * Diaz-Canel** **w****on’t** **change anything**
 * Wilkinson, 13** – chair of the International Institute for the Study of Cuba (Stephen, “ What Will a New Generation of Leadership Mean for Cuba?” 3/6, [])

//A: Stephen Wilkinson, chairman of the International Institute for the Study of Cuba// //AND// //fact that waiting for the Castros to die is a waste of time."//

//** CSG ’13 **(Cuba Study Group, Restoring Executive Authority Over U.S. Policy Toward Cuba February 2013, http://www.cubastudygroup.org/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=45d8f827-174c-4d43-aa2f-ef7794831032)//
 * Continued embargo empowers Cuban repression against its own people, promoting inequality and disposability**

//Helms-Burton has failed to advance the cause of freedom and prosperity for the// //AND// //countries and the success of their transitions to democracies and market economies.xi//


 * Lifting trade barriers doesn’t force neoliberalism on Cuban society – Latin American study proves that countries determine their own fates based on the shortcomings of past regimes**
 * Cato Institute ‘09** - public policy research organization — a think tank – dedicated to the principles of individual liberty, limited government, free markets and peace. Its scholars and analysts conduct independent, nonpartisan research on a wide range of policy issues. (Cato, “Cato Handbook for Policymakers: 7th Edition”, Cato, 2009, []) CW

Perhaps the biggest shortcoming of U.S. policy toward Cuba is its false AND depend entirely on Latin-American countries, not on the United States.

**The status quo is structurally improving** **Goklany** **9**— Worked with federal and state governments, think tanks, and the private sector for over 35 years. Worked with IPCC before its inception as an author, delegate and reviewer. Negotiated UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Managed the emissions trading program for the EPA. Julian Simon Fellow at the Property and Environment Research Center, visiting fellow at AEI, winner of the Julian Simon Prize and Award. PhD, MS, electrical engineering, MSU. B.Tech in electrical engineering, Indian Institute of Tech. (Indur, “Have increases in population, affluence and technology worsened human and environmental well-being?” 2009, []) 3. Trends in Human Well-being Although global population is no longer growing AND per capita, and the prevalence of malnutrition (Goklany 2007a, 2007b).

=When we Negate the Rez= -RVI on Sombreros -RVI because Ariana Grande is beautiful -Tropicality -Conditionality Good -Aspec-Ospec Double-Bind -Espec-Aspec-Ospec Triple-Bind -Presumption