Ali+Khambati+and+Sam+Grimsley

Appeasement DA, HR Condition CP, Consult Japan, Elections, Low Level Coop CP, Space Lead DA Appeasement, Elections, Space Lead DA, Low Level Coop
 * 1NC:**
 * 2NR:**
 * 1AC Cyber:**

US-Sino hacking activity is blocking __effective implementation__ of global cyber norms leading to __active calls__ for __sanctions__ against China
Maurer 16 - associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. member of the Research Advisory Network of the Global Commission on Internet Governance, the Freedom Online Coalition’s cybersecurity working group “An Internet Free and Secure,” and co-chaired the Civil Society Advisory Board of the Global Conference on CyberSpace. Developed the Global Cyber Definitions Database for the chair of the OSCE to support the implementation of the OSCE’s cyber confidence-building measures. In 2013 and 2014, Maurer spoke about cybersecurity at the United Nations in New York and Geneva and co-authored “Tipping the Scale: An Analysis of Global Swing States in the Internet Governance Debate,” published by the Global Commission on Internet Governance. His work has also been published by Jane’s Intelligence Review, TIME, Foreign Policy, CNN, Slate, and other academic and media venues. (Tim, “The New Norms: Global Cyber-Security Agreements Face Challenges”, February 5, 2016, Carnegie Endowment, http://carnegieendowment.org/2016/02/05/new-norms-global-cyber-security-agreements-face-challenges-pub-63031//dmeth) On 5 January 2016, the Kiev government accused Russia of being behind a major AND especially given that they lack a seat at the decision-making table.

Cyberattacks are increasing – china’s ignoring their pledge, spurring US backlash
AP 15 – Associated Press (“Chinese Cyberattacks on U.S. Companies Continue, Report Says”, October 19, 2015, NBC News, http://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/chinese-cyberattacks-u-s-companies-continue-report-says-n447016//dmeth)// // Chinese hacking attempts on American corporate intellectual property //have occurred with regularity over the past AND// to abide by all of its commitments, the official told the AP.

They’ll escalate
Segal and Lan 16 - Adam Segal is the Maurice R. Greenberg Senior Fellow for China Studies and Director of the Program on Digital and Cyberspace Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. Tang Lan is Deputy Director at the Institute of Information and Social Development, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. (Adam and Tang, “CAN THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA DE-CONFLICT IN CYBERSPACE?”, War on the Rocks, April 27, 2016, http://warontherocks.com/2016/04/can-the-united-states-and-china-de-conflict-in-cyberspace//dmeth) In spite of significant differences in views, Beijing and Washington appear committed to not AND agenda and threaten to undermine the U.S.-China relationship again.

Causes nuclear war
Nolan, 15 Andrew Nolan, Legislative Attorney at the Congressional Research Service, former Trial Attorney at the United States Department of Justice, holds a J.D. from George Washington University, 2015 (“Cybersecurity and Information Sharing: Legal Challenges and Solutions,” CRS Report to Congress, March 16th, Available Online at [], Accessed 07-05-2015, p. 1-3) The high profile cyberattacks of 2014 and early 2015 appear to be indicative of a AND the words of one prominent cybersecurity expert—“vulnerabilities of staggering proportions.” 26

** Second is sanctions – Sanctions will increase Chinese aggression and nationalism – supercharges the risk of miscalc and escalation **
Pickrell 15 – China political consultant, The Diplomat (Ryan, “A Dangerous Game: Responding to Chinese Cyber Activities”, September 29, 2015, The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/a-dangerous-game-responding-to-chinese-cyber-activities///dmeth) Prior to last week’s summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. AND it is, a major spark which could start a very serious fire.

Absent decreased competition, war and miscalc are inevitable
Christensen 15 6/5/ 15 – Thomas J., Boswell professor of world politics and director of the China and the World Program at Princeton University, is a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, “China's Rising Military: Now for the Hard Part” http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-06-05/china-s-rising-military-now-for-the-hard-part One reason for this is that no consensus exists in East Asia on the territorial AND conditions in which a technologically superior foe attacks crucial targets with conventional weapons.

Third is indo-pak conflict - absent cyber norms, India will __first strike__ a vulnerable Pakistan
Younus 16 - graduate of The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, consultant in the US. (Uzair, “The threat of cyberterrorism”, Dawn News, March 21, 2016, http://www.dawn.com/news/1246971/the-threat-of-cyberterrorism//dmeth)// // Starting with the Stuxnet attack on Iran in January 2009, //the scale and damage AND// region and allow India to conduct punitive strikes against Pakistan with relative ease.

The results is global nuclear famines
What could be worse than a nuclear war? __A nuclear famine following a nuclear__ __AND__ __temperature__, __altered rainfall__ patterns __and would not dissipate for about 10 years__.
 * Shifferd 14 ** – Director of Peace Studies @ Northland College [Kent Shifferd (Founder of the Wisconsin Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies and Ph.D. in history from Northern Illinois University), “Nuclear winter follows war,” __Battle Creek Enquirer__, Jan. 3, 2014, http://tinyurl.com/n7n5zp5]

// The plan allows the US and China to enforce international norms for a shared and harmonious cyberspace //
Qun 16 - Director-General, Department of Arms Control and Disarmament, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People’s Republic of China (Wang, “Shared Interests and Responsibility: The US and China Must Join to Promote a Rules-based Cyberspace”, The Huffington Post, May 11, 2016, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/wang-qun/shared-interests-and-resp_b_9873642.html//dmeth)// // Today, the US and China are to launch, in Washington DC, their // // AND // benefits people of all countries and safeguards international peace, security and stability.//

Increased US-China cyber cooperation is key to sustainable high relations
// During Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit to the United States, he reached an // // AND // an overarching cyber doctrine and define the limits of acceptable behavior in cyberspace//.
 * Chen and Lim 16** [Gang, Senior Research Fellow at the East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore, PhD contemporary international relations, Wen Xin, Research Associate at IPP Review, “Xi Jinping’s Economic Cybersecurity Agreement with Barack Obama”, 3/28/16, http://ippreview.com/index.php/Home/Blog/single/id/35.html]//DBI//

Specifically, cyber tensions derail cooperation on trade, the environment, and geostrategic matters
// Chinese interlocutors recognize that __the cyber issue is an__// __irritant in relations //between the two//__ //__AND__// //__medium could have a__// __knock-on effect// outside it__ and vice versa.
 * Harold et al 16** [Scott, an associate director of the RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy, a political scientist at the RAND Corporation, and a member of the Pardee RAND Graduate School faculty, specializes in Chinese foreign policy, East Asian security, and international affairs, PhD political science, Martin Libicki, a senior management scientist at the RAND Corporation, a professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School, and a Distinguished Visiting Professor at the U.S. Naval Academy, research focuses on the impacts of information technology on domestic and national security, PhD economics, Astrid Cevallos, Project Associate at the RAND Corporation, MPhil international relations, “Getting to Yes with China in Cyberspace”, 2016, http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1300/RR1335/RAND_RR1335.pdf]//DBI//

Relations solves prolif, US-china nuclear war, and broader US multilateralism
The foremost near-term security benefit to the United States of developing improved relations AND China could work alongside the United States in maintaining regional security and stability.
 * Gross, 13** - adjunct fellow of Pacific Forum CSIS, former Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for International Security Affairs in the Department of State, former Counselor of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (Donald, __The China Fallacy: How the U.S. Can Benefit from China’s Rise and Avoid Another Cold War__, p. 62

US-Sino regional cooperation solves mulitalt- specifically true for asia
A shared U.S.-China vision for regional security would serve to align AND a common vision, and implements agreed practices which strengthen regional stability.53
 * Gross, 13** - adjunct fellow of Pacific Forum CSIS, former Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for International Security Affairs in the Department of State, former Counselor of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (Donald, __The China Fallacy: How the U.S. Can Benefit from China’s Rise and Avoid Another Cold War__, p. 66

__Institutionalized cooperative norms__ check __conflict escalation__ and __it’s reverse causal__
Pouliot 11 —Professor of Poli Sci @ McGill University [Vincent Pouliot, “Multilateralism as an End in Itself,” International Studies Perspectives (2011) 12, 18–26] Because it rests on open, nondiscriminatory debate, and the routine exchange of viewpoints AND that further strengthen the impetus for multilateral dialog. Pg. 21-23

US-China economic cooperation is key to global economic stability
// Providing long-term perspective on US-China relations. The three scenarios explored // // AND // -China cooperation on the global economy as well as bilateral economic relations//.
 * Shulong et al 13** [Chu, Deputy Director, Institute of International Strategic and Development Studies, Tsinghua University, Da Wei, Director, Institute of American Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, Du Lan, Assistant Research Fellow, Department of American Studies, China Institute of International Studies, Huang Ping, Director General, Institute of American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Jin Canrong, Professor and Associate Dean, School of International Studies, Renmin University of China, Liu Qing, Associate Research Fellow, Department of American Studies, China Institute of International Studies, Qu Xing, President, China Institute of International Studies, Ruan Zongze, Vice President, China Institute of International Studies, Wang Fan, Director, Institute of International Relations, China Foreign Affairs University • Wang Yizhou, Associate Dean, School of International Studies, Peking University, Zhao Minghao, Research Fellow, China Center for Contemporary World Studies, Mathew Burrows, former Counselor, US National Intelligence Council; Director, Strategic Foresight Initiative, Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, Atlantic Council, Thomas Fingar, Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, Banning Garrett, Strategic Foresight Senior Fellow for Innovation and Global Trends, Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, Atlantic Council, Sherri Goodman, Senior Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary, CNA, Barry Hughes, Professor and Director, Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Robert Manning, Senior Fellow, Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, Atlantic Council, Paul Saffo, Consulting Professor, Stanford University; Senior Fellow, Strategic Foresight Initiative, Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, Atlantic Council, Jonathan Woetzel, Director, McKinsey & Company, Casimir Yost, former Director, Strategic Futures Group, US National Intelligence Council, all part of The Atlantic Council of the United States and China Institute of International Studies, “China-US Cooperation: Key to the Global Future”, September 2013, http://cusef.org.hk/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/05_eng.pdf]//DBI//

Economic decline causes global nuclear war
Tønnesson 15 - Stein Tønnesson 15, Research Professor, Peace Research Institute Oslo; Leader of East Asia Peace program, Uppsala University, 2015, “Deterrence, interdependence and Sino–US peace,” International Area Studies Review, Vol. 18, No. 3, p. 297-311 Several recent works on China and Sino–US relations have made substantial contributions to AND each other, with a view to obliging Washington or Beijing to intervene.

US-China environmental cooperation are critical to all warming mitigation efforts
Cooperation on climate change mitigation, adaptation, and consequence management. __China-US__ __AND__ __US businesses as well as lower costs and widely disseminate clean energy technologies__.
 * Shulong et al 13** [Chu, Deputy Director, Institute of International Strategic and Development Studies, Tsinghua University, Da Wei, Director, Institute of American Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, Du Lan, Assistant Research Fellow, Department of American Studies, China Institute of International Studies, Huang Ping, Director General, Institute of American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Jin Canrong, Professor and Associate Dean, School of International Studies, Renmin University of China, Liu Qing, Associate Research Fellow, Department of American Studies, China Institute of International Studies, Qu Xing, President, China Institute of International Studies, Ruan Zongze, Vice President, China Institute of International Studies, Wang Fan, Director, Institute of International Relations, China Foreign Affairs University • Wang Yizhou, Associate Dean, School of International Studies, Peking University, Zhao Minghao, Research Fellow, China Center for Contemporary World Studies, Mathew Burrows, former Counselor, US National Intelligence Council; Director, Strategic Foresight Initiative, Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, Atlantic Council, Thomas Fingar, Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, Banning Garrett, Strategic Foresight Senior Fellow for Innovation and Global Trends, Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, Atlantic Council, Sherri Goodman, Senior Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary, CNA, Barry Hughes, Professor and Director, Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Robert Manning, Senior Fellow, Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, Atlantic Council, Paul Saffo, Consulting Professor, Stanford University; Senior Fellow, Strategic Foresight Initiative, Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, Atlantic Council, Jonathan Woetzel, Director, McKinsey & Company, Casimir Yost, former Director, Strategic Futures Group, US National Intelligence Council, all part of The Atlantic Council of the United States and China Institute of International Studies, “China-US Cooperation: Key to the Global Future”, September 2013, http://cusef.org.hk/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/05_eng.pdf]//DBI

Warming is real, anthropogenic, and threatens extinction
Griffin, 15 – Professor of Philosophy at Claremont, David, “The climate is ruined. So can civilization even survive?”, 4-14, [] Although most of us worry about other things, climate scientists have become increasingly worried AND //the whole world to replace dirty energy with clean as soon as possible.//

The previous cyber-security agreement didn’t go __far enough__ – the aff is key to promote __sustainable__ cooperation
Summary I n September 2015 the United States and the Peoples’ Republic of China reached an AND data upon which cross-infrastructure cyber risk management decisions might be made.
 * Mussington ’15** --- Assistant Director, Information Technology and Systems Division at Institute for Defense Analyses. Ph.D [B. David A, “The Missing Compliance Framework in the 2015 U.S.-China Cybersecurity Agreement,” Institute for Defense Analysis, [], November 18th, 2015]//Mnush


 * 1AC Taiwan: **

The risk of a US-China war over Taiwan is high. Blocking independence is China’s __core__ national interest and outweighs economic ties
As Taiwan is important to both China and the United States, conflict of interests AND bonds of commerce, trade, and military ties between the two powers.
 * Kuntić, 15** – visiting fellow at European Union Centre in Taiwan, National Taiwan University; PhD candidate at the Faculty of Political Science, University of Zagreb (Dario, “The Ominous Triangle: China-Taiwan-the United States relationship” CIRR XXI (72) 2015, 239-280)

The DPP’s election means Taiwan is moving towards de jure independence with US backing
The pro-independence DPP has returned to power in Taiwan. Despite repeated warnings AND of the Taiwan Strait and for the benefit of the US itself too.
 * Yin, 6/8/16 -** Yin Chengde is a research fellow of China Foundation for International Studies (“Time for US to Change Its Taiwan Policy” http://www.chinausfocus.com/political-social-development/time-for-us-to-change-its-taiwan-policy/

This enraged China which just ended relations with Taiwan
Well before Taiwan held its elections on January 20, Beijing made it clear that AND more damage done to cross-strait relations than either side can fix.
 * Tiezzi, 6/26/16** - Shannon Tiezzi is Editor at The Diplomat. Her main focus is on China, and she writes on China’s foreign relations, domestic politics, and economy. Shannon previously served as a research associate at the U.S.-China Policy Foundation (“Did China Just Kill Cross-Strait Relations?” The Diplomat, []

Nationalist pressure and nuclear insecurity make the risk of war high and nuclear escalation probable
Although a number of regional sovereignty and maritime disputes have the potential to sour the AND Party] is finding it increasingly difficult to justify its weak responses .”67
 * Glaser, 15** - Charles L Glaser is a professor in the Elliott School of International Affairs and the Department of Political Science at George Washington University. He is also a fellow in the Kissinger Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (“A U.S.-China Grand Bargain?” International Security, Vol. 39, No. 4 (Spring 2015), pp. 49–90, doi:10.1162/ISEC_a_00199

Strategic ambiguity risks miscalculation
If China were to attack Taiwan, would American forces come to the island’s defense AND not to fight hard enough to prevent Beijing from achieving its core goals.
 * Colby and Slocombe, 16** - Mr. Colby is a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. Mr. Slocombe was U.S. undersecretary of defense for policy from 1994 to 2001 (Elbridge and Walter, “U.S. ‘Ambiguity’ on Taiwan Is Dangerous” Wall Street Journal, 5/23, []

It’s the __most probable__ cause of nuclear war – strategic mistrust makes escalation likely
Taiwan is the //most likely// potential crisis that could trigger a nuclear war between China AND arsenals, such a conflict would be tremendously dangerous and quite possibly devastating. ”
 * Lowther, 13** – citing a CSIS report (William, Tapei Times, 3/16, “Taiwan could spark nuclear war: report,” [])

It risks extinction
But what would that “victory” entail? An attack with these Chinese nuclear AND — destroying agriculture, creating worldwide famine, and generating chaos and destruction.
 * Wittner, 12** - Professor of History emeritus, SUNY Albany (Lawrence, “Is a Nuclear War With China Possible?” Huffington Post, 1/30, []

Contention 2 – relations
====The US and China are locked an action-reaction cycle of hostility. Negotiating a staged Framework Agreement will de-escalate tensions and create a sustainable path towards relations and cooperation on global existential threats==== To overcome the structural weaknesses in U.S.-China relations—which could AND conflict U.S. and Chinese military operations and avoid accidental confrontations.
 * Gross, 13** - adjunct fellow of Pacific Forum CSIS, former Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for International Security Affairs in the Department of State, former Counselor of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (Donald, __The China Fallacy: How the U.S. Can Benefit from China’s Rise and Avoid Another Cold War__, p. 152-155

Taiwan is the most important __starting point__ to address strategic distrust – plan is the vital internal link to broader, sustainable cooperation
More important, however, is that focusing on the quality of current crossstrait relations AND of //cooperation on other issues// and reduce the probability of competition and conflict.
 * Glaser, 15** - Charles L Glaser is a professor in the Elliott School of International Affairs and the Department of Political Science at George Washington University. He is also a fellow in the Kissinger Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (“A U.S.-China Grand Bargain?” International Security, Vol. 39, No. 4 (Spring 2015), pp. 49–90, doi:10.1162/ISEC_a_00199

Strategic distrust blocks Chinese support for Korean unification and undermines South Korean leadership
China’s support for North Korea at the United Nations as well as its opposition to AND that nonetheless occurs and has an adverse impact on South Korea’s international prospects.
 * Gross, 13** - adjunct fellow of Pacific Forum CSIS, former Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for International Security Affairs in the Department of State, former Counselor of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (Donald, __The China Fallacy: How the U.S. Can Benefit from China’s Rise and Avoid Another Cold War__, p. 218-219)

__China’s leverage is necessary__ to force out North Korean leadership and ensure a peaceful transition
Kydd 2015 – Prof of Political Science at UW Madison

Andrew H, “Pulling the Plug: Can There Be a Deal with China on Korean Unification?”, The Washington Quarterly Volume 38, Issue 2, 2015, p 63-77 Finally, what about North Korea itself? Pyongyang's leadership would definitely be opposed to AND , the United States and China must first address their legacy of mistrust.

A nuclear war on the peninsula would kill millions, involve massive amounts of fallout, and risk escalation
Mount 2015 - Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relation

Adam, The Strategic Logic of Nuclear Restraint, Survival: Global Politics and Strategy Volume 57, Issue 4, 2015, p. 53-76 As things stand today, the most plausible scenario for US nuclear use is in AND neighbouring countries. An invasion of North Korea would be all but impossible.

A staged Framework Agreement will create US-Sino cooperation for peaceful Korean unification and prevent the impact to collapse
Because the underlying security competition between the United States and China is a major cause AND legitimate, interim political structure leading to the formation of a new government.
 * Gross, 13** - adjunct fellow of Pacific Forum CSIS, former Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for International Security Affairs in the Department of State, former Counselor of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (Donald, __The China Fallacy: How the U.S. Can Benefit from China’s Rise and Avoid Another Cold War__, p. 222-223)

Plan:
====The United States federal government should diplomatically engage the People's Republic of China over the security measures of a staged Framework Agreement, beginning with an offer of reciprocal reductions in military commitments over Taiwan.====

1ac – solvency
====Plan begins negotiations over a Framework Agreement with staged, reciprocal reductions of forces over Taiwan. China will say yes and it will build a foundation for larger cooperation that reduces the overall risk of nuclear war in Asia==== Taiwan currently faces an overwhelming military threat from China, which uses its forces to AND be more than sufficient to deter and dissuade China from seeking regional dominance.
 * Gross, 13** - adjunct fellow of Pacific Forum CSIS, former Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for International Security Affairs in the Department of State, former Counselor of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (Donald, __The China Fallacy: How the U.S. Can Benefit from China’s Rise and Avoid Another Cold War__, p. 159-165)

China says yes to greater diplomatic engagement; it’s verifiable and won’t destabilize relations with Taiwan or Asia
Under such circumstances, avoiding future escalating Sino-American crises over People’s Liberation Army AND also not inconceivable that Beijing would permit or provide convincing levels of verification.
 * Swaine, 11 –** senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and one of the most prominent American analysts in Chinese security studies (Michael, __America’s Challenge: Engaging a Rising China in the Twenty-First Century__, p. 359-363

Negotiated reciprocal concessions are vital to rapprochement and de-securitizing the conflict
During the second phase of the onset of stable peace, the trading of individual AND second phase, each state becomes confident that the other has benign motivations.
 * Kupchan, 12 –** Professor of International Affairs in the School of Foreign Service and Government Department at Georgetown University (Charles, How Enemies Become Friends, p. 41-45