Ellis+and+Daniel

Afghanistan aff --Advantages: hegemony, insurgency (Pakistan), dollar (econ) --Plan: The United States federal government should reduce its military presence in Afghanistan to a level consistent with counterterrorism


 * CONTENTION ONE IS HEGEMONY**

When General David Petraeus testifies today on Capitol … is exactly what they've been doing ."
 * We’re not leaving in 2011 but the deadline itself kills credibility**
 * Rogin, 10** - staff writer for Foreign Policy, Prior to that, Josh covered defense and foreign policy for Congressional Quarterly. Josh has also worked at the House International Relations Committee, and the Brookings Institution (Josh, “Petraeus: Withdrawal timeline does not mean "switching off the lights",” The Cable, 6/29, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/06/29/petraeus_withdrawal_timeline_does_not_mean_switching_off_the_lights )

Q1: General McChrystal is expected to request up to … of expenditure that any “all-in” approach would entail.
 * Counterinsurgency is impossible in Afghanistan and we’re losing**
 * Nelson, 9** – former director of a Joint Task Force in support of Operation Enduring Freedom, retired naval officer with assignments at the National Counterterrorism Center and National Security Council, and Senior Fellow at the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (Rick, “The Other Side of the COIN”, 10/1, http://csis.org/publication/other-side-coin )

The coalition's strategy in Afghanistan is at an impasse. The renewed … strategic defeat. Hence the need for a negotiated settlement. When it was launched in March, __the Marjah operation was billed as a …__ Afghan War commander General Stanley McChrystal.
 * Cross border sanctuaries, government corruption, tensions within the Afghan army and the utter failure of population protection all make this failure inevitable**
 * Dorronsoro, 10** - visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment, is an expert on Afghanistan, Turkey, and South Asia. Previously, Dorronsoro was a professor of political science at the Sorbonne, Paris and the Institute of Political Studies of Rennes (Gilles, “The Case for Negotiations,” In These Times, 5/24, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=40863
 * Security exists in only 5 of 116 areas in Afghanistan and the surge is failing – the problem is COIN itself**
 * Hallinan, 10** -columnist for foreign policy in focus (7/22/10, Conn, “The Great Myth: Counterinsurgency,” [] )

Obama's final decision in December offered something for … to execute any of his other initiatives. But this moderate tone gains Obama the … but a much greater focus on Kashmir .1
 * Failure will affect all of our foreign policy and keep Obama from exercising leadership**
 * Fernholz, 10** – writing fellow at the American Prospect and Research Fellow at the New America Foundation (Tim, The American Prospect, “The Ultimate Test Case,” March, 2010, lexis) Katulis = security policy analyst at the Center for American Progress
 * The plan restores credibility – ending COIN will salvage Afghanistan policy and allow sustainable presence **
 * Stewart, 10 ** - Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at Harvard, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (Rory, “   Afghanistan: What Could Work”, New York Review of Books, 1/14,  http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2010/jan/14/afghanistan-what-could-work/?page=3)

 Over the winter break I had an epiphany about the … from a rising power (China, a reinvigorated Russia  ).
 * Kretkowski, 10 ** – Frequently assists think tank in conferences and other work products that aid DoD's long-term thinking about threats that may not be addressable via weapons platforms. Spent six months in Afghanistan working with Army public affairs. (Paul, “Against COIN, for CT in Afghanistan and Elsewhere”, 1/7, Beacon (a blog), http://softpowerbeacon.blogspot.com/2010/01/against-coin-for-ct-in-afghanistan-and.html)

** Kuhner, 9 - ** the president of the Edmund Burke Institute for American Renewal (Jeffrey, Washington Times, “Obama’s quagmire; US should look to its own interests,” 9/7, Lexis Academic) __ America is losing the war in Afghanistan … __ welcoming __ arms of extremists. __
 * Afghanistan is a quagmire sapping our morale and readiness.**

Since we invaded Iraq six and a … invasion of US-ally Georgia  this past year.
 * This will obliterate primacy **
 * Pyne, 9** - Vice Chair of the Utah State Legislative Compensation Commission and Vice President of the Association of the United States Army's Utah chapter and a Vice President of the Salt Lake Total Force Chapter of the Military Officers Association of America (David, “  Obama failing our troops in Afghanistan,” 11/7, http://westernfrontamerica.com/2009/11/07/obama-failing-troops-afghanistan/)

A grand strategy based on American primacy means ensuring the United … primacy due to the economic prosperity it provides.  http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100628_30_year_war_afghanistan )
 * Heg is good**
 * Thayer, 6 - ** professor of security studies at Missouri State (Bradley, The National Interest, “In Defense of Primacy”, November/December, p. 32-37)
 * We solve—strategic withdrawal replenishes vital strategic reserves**
 * Friedman, 10** - American political scientist. He is the chief intelligence officer, and CEO of the private intelligence corporation Stratfor. Prior to Stratfor, Friedman spent almost twenty years in academia, teaching political science at Dickinson College. During this time, he regularly briefed senior commanders in the armed services as well as the U.S. Army War College (George, “The 30-Year War in Afghanistan,” Stratfor, 6/29,

There is an anomaly in this … and re-establish its ground reserves.


 * Shift to counterterrorism focus creates sustainable presence**
 * Stewart, 9 -** Ryan Family Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (9/16/09, Rory, “The Future of Afghanistan,” http://www.hks.harvard.edu/news-events/news/testimonies/rory-stewart-on-afghanistan )

__The best Afghan policy would be to reduce …__ in the long-term, less will be more. An effort to conduct " counterinsurgency" in Afghanistan …capable of applying overwhelming force.
 * The plan causes a doctrine shift to selective engagement **
 * Gventer, 9 ** - Senior Defense Analyst at the RAND Corporation and a former deputy assistant secretary of defense. She served two tours in Iraq, including a year as a senior adviser to General Peter Chiarelli, the operational commander in Iraq in 2006 (Celeste, “False Promise of 'Counterinsurgency'”, 12/1, http://www.rand.org/commentary/2009/12/01/NYT.html)
 * CONTENTION TWO IS INSURGENCY**

**Akhtar, 10-** professor of international relations, and a senior analyst & writer. He was the dean of faculty of management, Baluchistan university, and former chairman of International Relations Department, Karachi university (1/26/10, Shameem, “Pakistan’s Instability : The US War Factor,” http://www.islamonline.net/servlet/Satellite?c=Article_C&cid=1262372328640&pagename=Zone-English-Muslim_Affairs/MAELayout#**1 ) __If it is a war against extremists and … at any moment, thus destabilizing the state.__
 * COIN drives insurgents across the border and will collapse Pakistan**

||  || But a suicide bomber in Pakistan rammed a car packed with … addressing the situation. So should we all. **Chellany, 09** - professor of strategic studies at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi (9/14/09, Brahma, Japan Times, “An Advantagous U.S. Exit,” http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20090914bc.html ) When the administration's principal …deep-rooted military-mullah alliance.
 * Pakistan collapse causes nuclear war**
 * Pitt, 9**- //a New York Times and internationally bestselling author of two books: "War on Iraq: What Team Bush Doesn't Want You to Know" and "The Greatest Sedition Is Silence." (5/8/09, William, “Unstable Pakistan Threatens the World,” // http://www.arabamericannews.com/news/index.php?mod=article&cat=commentary&article=2183 )
 * We solve because CT allows more effective war on terror and credibility **


 * Withdrawal immediately turns the population against the Taliban, solving legitimacy**
 * Dorronsoro,9 - **Visiting Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (January 2009, Gilles, “Focus and Exit: An Alternative Strategy for the Afghan War,” http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/afghan_war-strategy.pdf )

This three-zone strategy is … __of Afghanistan’s peripheral regions.__

Bounding Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan,” Small Wars Journal, 10/21, http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2009/10/toward-a-kilcullenbiden-plan/ Just do the math - __with 63,000 troops …__ advocated by Vice-President Joe Biden.
 * CONTENTION THREE IS DOLLAR**
 * COIN will collapse the dollar and economic leadership **
 * Corn, 9 ** – Ph.D. from the University of Paris and is a graduate of the U.S. Naval War College, currently on leave from the US State Department (Tony, “Toward a Kilcullen-Biden Plan?


 * The impact is growth**
 * Mandelbaum** **2005** – Professor and Director of the American Foreign Policy Program at Johns Hopkins – 2005 [Michael, The Case for Goliath: How America Acts As the World’s Government in the Twenty-First Century, p. 192-195]

Although the spread of nuclear weapons, with the … __of cars without gasoline.__


 * That goes nuclear without economic leadership**
 * Mandelbaum 2005** – Professor and Director of the American Foreign Policy Program at Johns Hopkins – 2005 [Michael, The Case for Goliath: How America Acts As the World’s Government in the Twenty-First Century, p. 224]

At best, an American withdrawal …__ numbers, of nuclear weapons __.

This insoluble problem is why the counterterrorism option is important. If … other counterterrorism deployment.
 * Indicts of counterterrorism underestimate remaining presence – it’s sufficient for force protection, intel, army training and support of the local population **
 * Long, 10 ** - assistant professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs (Austin, “Small is Beautiful: The Counterterrorism Option in Afghanistan,” Orbis, Spring 2010, Science Direct)