Angelo+Wong+and+Misha+Andra-Thomas

AFF: angelowong7 at gmail.com NEG: gunnarmisha at gmail.com 1NCs - T-QPQ, T-Bilat, Plan Flaw Theory-US≠USFG, Plan Flaw Theory - China ≠ PRC, Unification CP, Diamond Dust CP, Japan CP, Warming CO2 ag turns, Containment turn, Japan Prolif DA, Elections (both generic and rust belt shells), Nuclear Security K (alt is to establish DMZs to resist the normalization of violence), Pan k, appeasement da, xi good ptx, TPP, Dip Cap, Weeden CP, Nanotech DA (gray goo vs ISS), state department tradeoff, military to military counterplan 2NRs - Elections, Japan Prolif DA, Warming CO2 ag turns, Containment turn, appeasement, t qpq, TPP, and Diamond Dust CP, pan k, Japan DA

=Multilat 1AC - K=

Plan
====The United States federal government should offer to pursue full member status in the Arctic Council for the People’s Republic of China if they agree to bilateral cooperative agreements to coordinate Arctic scientific research and environmental monitoring. ====

THE ONLY ADVANTAGE…IS…MULTILAT
Britain leaving the EU could signal a new shift away from multilateralism as leaders around AND does not play a constructive role in multilateral institutions, including the EU.
 * ====Brexit is signaling a collapse of multilateralism due to the lack of political will, only the plan reverses this trend ====**
 * Wurf, 16**—Hannah, Research Associate working in the G20 Studies Centre at the Lowy Institute. Her research interests are global governance and multilateralism, June 9, Online: "http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2016/06/09/What-the-UK-needs-now-is-more-multilateralism-not-less.aspx", Article: "What the UK needs now is more multilateralism, not less" Accessed on: 06-24-16//AWW

More importantly, the international community is facing bigger and unpredicted challenges and serious irrational AND there are challenges, which go beyond state sovereignty and nationalistic security thinking.
 * ====Arctic environmental cooperation spills over to boost multilateral cooperation globally, but it’s on the brink – our impact is reverse causal – cooperation creates a paradigmatic governance shift that halts warfare and existential risks ====**
 * Heinenen, 16**—Lassi, Professor of Arctic Politics @ University of Lapland, Finland. author of more than 200 scientific publications and is the editor of The Arctic Yearbook. "High Arctic Stability as an Asset for Storms of International Politics," Future Security of the Global Arctic: State Policy, Economic Security and Climate, Palgrave Macmillan, p. 4-8 http://www.palgrave.com/us/book/9781137468246 —br

China is willing to cooperate to gain more arctic influence-our ev cites the Chinese vice foreign minister
Acknowledging the diversity of Arctic actors and their visions, the Arctic Resilience Assessment ( AND towards collaboration, creating new opportunities for local communities (English/Chinese).
 * Strambo 15 **—- (Claudia Strambo, Novermber 17, 2015, "China in a heterogeneous and complex Arctic", Arctic Resilience Report, http://arctic-council.org/arr/china-in-a-heterogeneous-and-complex-arctic/)//Jmoney

It’s reverse causal - We aren’t forcing China but allowing Chinese participation in the Arctic Council is key to upholding its legitimacy – China has the power to tank the Council
Emmi **Ikonen**, a Master of Science of International Relations at Norwegian University of Life Sciences, "Arctic Governance from Regional and International Perspectives: Addressing the Effectiveness of the Arctic Council as a Regional Regime" Faculty of Social SicialSciences and Department of Interntional Environment and Develo;pment Sciences, December of **2015**, https://brage.bibsys.no/xmlui/bitstream/handle/11250/2383458/Emmi'Ikonen'Master%27s'Thesis.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y This thesis sees that China contributes to the Arctic affairs mostly with soft balancing abilities AND trade relations in the Arctic would secure its position as a stakeholder anyway.

The plan gets modeled globally
(Qu, "China-US Cooperation: Key to the Global Future," http://globaltrends.thedialogue.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/China-US-cooperation-Key-to-the-Global-future.pdf) The global future is likely to be increasingly volatile and uncertain. The rate of AND challenges and threats is certain to increase as globalization continues and interdependence deepens.
 * Xing**, President & CEO @ China Institute for International Studies,** 13**

SCS escalating now – prefer most recent evidence
Paul **Gewirtz**, The Potter Stewart Professor of Constitutional Law at Yale Law School and is also the Director of Yale Law School’s China Center. Professor Gewirtz teaches and writes in various legal and policy fields, including constitutional law, federal courts, antidiscrimination law, law and literature, Chinese law, and American foreign policy, **05-08**-16, Online: "http://www.brookings.edu//media/research/files/papers/2016/05/09-limits-of-law-south-china-sea/limits-of-law-in-the-south-china-sea.pdf" PDF: "Limits of Law in the South China Sea - The Brookings Institution: Center For East Asia Policy Studies" Accessed on: 06-24-16//AWW The vast South China Sea has become one of the world’s most dangerous hotspots. AND and the rights of all nations, large and small—are upheld.

The Arctic will continue to be a strategically important region into the future as nations AND opportunity to reinforce strong maritime governance in the Arctic for their mutual benefit.
 * ====The plan’s signal drives cooperation – the US has a narrow window as Arctic Council leaders to lock in cooperation – it spills over to solve South China Sea conflict ====**
 * Dwyer, 15**— Commander William G. Dwyer III, United States Coast Guard, "China’s Strategic Interests in the Arctic," NDU Press 3rd Place Paper, United States Army War College, Joint Force Quarterly, NDU Press, http://uscga.edu/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=65722, p. 18-20

Prefer Empirics – Even small SCS conflict will escalate from region to region spilling over to global war
Peter van **Ham**, Francesco Saverio **Montesano**, and Frans Paul van der **Putten**, [Ham is Senior Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute in The Hague (the Netherlands) and Adjunct Professor at the College of Europe in Bruges (Belgium). Montesano is Research Project Assistant at the Clingendael Institute in The Hague. Putten is Senior Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute in The Hague], **03-03**-16, Online: "https://www.clingendael.nl/sites/default/files/Clingendael%20Report%20South%20China%20Sea.pdf", PDF: "A South China Sea Conflict: Implications for European Security: A Scenario Study" Accessed on: 06-24-16//AWW The general theme that forms the background to this report is the relationship between geopolitical AND a decade (such as the Russian strategic turn towards Europe after 1905).

China rise will lead to regional competition and instability in the Arctic if unchecked by the Arctic Council
Kevin **Xie**, Chair of the Features Board for the Harvard International Review, 05-22-**15**, Online: "http://hir.harvard.edu/some-brics-in-the-arctic-developing-powers-look-north/", Article: "Some BRICS in the Arctic – Developing Powers Look North" Accessed on: 06-23-16//AWW In an age of rising powers, there remain few purely regional affairs. With AND India with their own, in order to preserve the Arctic’s diplomatic model.

Existing Multilateral cooperation is low now – absent the plan Chinese presence raises the risk for great-power competition and conflict
Kevin **Xie**, Chair of the Features Board for the Harvard International Review, 05-22-**15**, Online: "http://hir.harvard.edu/some-brics-in-the-arctic-developing-powers-look-north/", Article: "Some BRICS in the Arctic – Developing Powers Look North" Accessed on: 06-23-16//AWW China and India have not expressed any desires to establish a military presence in the AND regional players in order to adapt to the changing geopolitics of the Arctic.

Cooperation’s key to avoid global wars that culminate in extinction
Chas W. **FREEMAN**, served in the United States Foreign Service, the State and Defense Departments in many different capacities over the course of thirty years, past president of the Middle East Policy Council, co-chair of the U.S. China Policy Foundation and a Lifetime Director of the Atlantic Council, **14** [September 13, 2014, "A New Set of Great Power Relationships," http://chasfreeman.net/a-new-set-of-great-power-relationships/] We live in a time of great strategic fluidity. Borders are shifting. Lines AND tensions inherent in military posturing, arms races, instability, and impoverishment.

Scenario 3: Russia
The U.S. envoy to Canada says the Arctic Council is a great AND is the main energy source for many remote northern communities, he said.
 * ====Arctic environmental cooperation is the only chance for US-Russia relations – the US is ducking a stance on looming Russia-China Arctic status conflicts ====**
 * Heyman*, 16**—*Canadian Ambassador Bruce Heyman, being quoted by The Canadian Press, "U.S. ambassador: Arctic Council a good venue to co-operate with Russia," CTV News transcript, May 29, http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/u-s-ambassador-arctic-council-a-good-venue-to-co-operate-with-russia-1.2922129 — br

The plan’s clarification of stance is key – inaction guarantees escalation
Holland 14 (Andrew, Senior Fellow for Climate and Energy at The American Security Project, "Conflict in Arctic more likely due to perceived U.S. policy weakness and leadership on Arctic affairs," From Testimony in front of US House Committee on Foreign Afairs,http://unclosdebate.org/evidence/2018/conflict-arctic-more-likely-due-perceived-us-policy-weakness-and-leadership-arctic, MJW) In 2015, the United States will assume the chair of the Arctic Council. AND United States is an Arctic nation: it should start acting like one.

We’re closer to US-Russia nuclear war than at any time in history – acting now is key
A nuclear war between Europe and Russia is coming closer to reality. Igor Ivanov AND training for a future war than any war games on home soil could.
 * Culbertson 16**—Alix, journalist, formerly with the BBC and Asia City Media Group, BA @ University of Leeds, "European NUCLEAR WAR IMMINENT as Russia relations break down", The Sunday Express, Mar 19, 2016, http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/653986/Europe-nuclear-war-imminent-Russia)//ml

Sophie Shevardnadze: Dr. Theodore Postol, former advisor to the U.S AND many warheads targeted on each of these great cities by the other side.
 * ====US-Russia nuclear war would end all life on Earth in half an hour – escalates uncontrollably ====**
 * Postol 16** (Theodore, former advisor to the U.S. Chief of Naval operations, professor of technology and international security at MIT, nuclear expert, interview with Sophie Shevardnadze, RT.com, 3/14/16, https://www.rt.com/shows/sophieco/324941-nuclear-cold-war-us/)//ml

Scenario 4: Proxy Conflict
China and America share a common interest of freedom of navigation in the Arctic. AND current state of liberalism fostered through the Arctic Council to a realist view.
 * ====Pursuing Chinese full member status in exchange for environmental cooperation locks in multilateral peace – that’s key to defuse inevitable proxy conflicts that wreck stability ====**
 * Dwyer, 15**— Commander William G. Dwyer III, United States Coast Guard, "China’s Strategic Interests in the Arctic," NDU Press 3rd Place Paper, United States Army War College, Joint Force Quarterly, NDU Press, http://uscga.edu/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=65722, p. 15-17

Graeme P. **Herd 10**, Head of the International Security Programme, Co-Director of the International Training Course in Security Policy, Geneva Centre for Security Policy, 2010, "Great Powers: Towards a "cooperative competitive" future world order paradigm?," in Great Powers and Strategic Stability in the 21^^st^^ Century, p. 197-198 Given the absence of immediate hegemonic challengers to the US (or a global strategic AND contributed to the crisis; all will be involved in the solution.24
 * ====Independently, successful management of proxy conflicts through regional multilateral institutions prevents existential threats ====**

Institutionalized cooperative norms check conflict escalation and it’s reverse causal
Because it rests on open, nondiscriminatory debate, and the routine exchange of viewpoints AND that further strengthen the impetus for multilateral dialog. Pg. 21-23
 * Pouliot 11**—Professor of Poli Sci @ McGill University [Vincent Pouliot, "Multilateralism as an End in Itself," International Studies Perspectives (2011) 12, 18–26]

Our epistemology is sound—I-law reduces the likelihood of conflict—-empirical longitudinal analysis
Beth **Simmons 10**, Professor of International Affairs at Harvard, "Treaty Compliance and Violation," Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci., vol. 13 The concept of audience costs has also been useful for understanding how formal agreements can AND strongest for polities that place the highest value on the rule of law.

International law is inevitable and part of the solution to violence even if it’s not a panacea —- the alt is impossible and allows the right to fill in
Emmanuelle **Jouannet 7**, Professor, Universite Paris I - Pantheon Sorbonne, "ESSAY: WHAT IS THE USE OF INTERNATIONAL LAW? INTERNATIONAL LAW AS A 21ST CENTURY GUARDIAN OF WELFARE", 28 Mich. J. Int'l L. 815, Michigan Journal of International Law, Lexis It now seems impossible to turn back from the present course. To deny the AND conduct of domestic and international actors, combats misery, and prevents risks.

Global governance norms are try or die for preventing human extinction
What is most to be feared is enhanced global disorder resulting from the combination of AND survival and security to their longer term agendas. Pg. 4-5
 * Masciulli 11**—Professor of Political Science @ St Thomas University [Joseph Masciulli, "The Governance Challenge for Global Political and Technoscientific Leaders in an Era of Globalization and Globalizing Technologies," Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society February 2011 vol. 31 no. 1 pg. 3-5]

Rejecting international legal frameworks and sovereignty leads to violence and power inequality
Tara **McCormack 10**, Lecturer in International Politics at the University of Leicester, PhD in IR from the University of Westminster, "Critique, Security and Power: The Political Limits to Emancipatory Approaches", pp. 136-139 In chapter 7 I engaged with the human security framework and some of the problematic AND quite clear in the human security framework, as discussed in chapter 7.


 * NEG STUFF:**

====** Th **** eir projections of nuclear violence rely on the instrumental logic of the Pax Americana --- this creates a perverse fascination with death that exports violence across the world and commits existence to total war resulting in extinction - the alt is to establish DMZs to resist the normalization of violence **==== Within modern political theory __ AND __
 * Nuclearism K:**
 * Masco 12 ** [Joseph Masco, “The End of Ends,” // Anthropological Quarterly //, Volume 85, Number 4, Fall 2012]

__ as well as on __**//__ machines __//**__, __**//__ threat projections __//**__ , and __**//__ fantasies __//**__ , as well as physics and engineering __.