DW+Charles+Karl

Plan:
The United States federal government should normalize its economic relations with Cuba.

Plan:
The United States federal government should normalize its economic relations with Cuba.

Cuban reforms are inevitable but the loss of external investment risks economic and social collapse – offering normal trade relations is vital
Ashby 13, Senior Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs. He served in the U.S. Commerce Department~’s International Trade Administration as Director of the Office of Mexico and the Caribbean and acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of Commerce for the Western Hemisphere(Timothy, "Preserving Stability in Cuba After Normalizing Relations with the United States – The Importance of Trading with State-Owned Enterprises" 3/29/13, Council on Hemispheric Affairs, http://www.coha.org/preserving-stability-in-cuba-timothy-ashby/)//AD

Cuba under Raúl Castro has entered a new period of economic, social, and AND tottering economy could seismically impact the United States and neighboring countries. It cert ainly did during the Mariel Boatlift of 1980, precipitated by a downturn in the AND -way trade must include both Cuba~’s private sector as well as SOEs.

Cuban collapse destroys the global war on terror and makes conflicts in hotspots around the globe more likely
Gorrell, 5 - Lieutenant Colonel, US Army, paper submitted for the USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT (Tim, "CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS?" [] GWOT=Global War on Terrorism

Regardless of the succession, under the current U.S. policy, Cuba~’s AND in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro Cuba?

Hotspots all risk escalation to global nuclear war
David **Bosco** (a senior editor at Foreign Policy magazine) July **2006** "Forum: Keeping an eye peeled for World War III" []

The understanding that small but violent acts can spark global conflagration is etched into the AND not even a hint that France, Russia or China would respond militarily.

Independently, enforcing the embargo itself undermines the war on terror
Johnson, et al, 10 – Andy Johnson is a director in the national security program at The Third Way ("End the Embargo of Cuba", The National Security Program, 9/6/10, []

Keeping the embargo in place requires that the US government devote time and resources to AND in the Western Hemisphere bureau to initiate a new path for engaging Cuba.

Greater focus and resources to counter-terrorism is vital – WMD terrorism risks are increasing
Clark, 13 - Bruce Clarke is a retired Army Colonel with extensive strategic, operational and tactical experience. He is widely published on a myriad of strategic and operational subjects. Immediately prior to his retirement from the Army, Colonel Clarke was the Director of US National Security Studies at the US Army War College (Bruce, The Examiner, " The end to the war on terrorism—really?" 5/28, [])

I have been struck by the response to what my liberal friends call President Obama~’s AND , Hezbollah or Iran~’s Revolutionary Guards will use them when they get them.

This risks extinction
(Robert, "After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects," Studies in Conflict %26 Terrorism, 33.7, InformaWorld)//BB
 * Ayson 10** - Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington

But these two nuclear worlds—a non-state actor nuclear attack and a AND be admitted that any preemption would probably still meet with a devastating response.

The unconditional offer of normal trade relations boosts US-Cuban relations and fosters a stable transition
Koenig, 10 – US Army Colonel, paper submitted for a Masters in Strategic Studies at the US Army War College (Lance, "Time for a New Cuba Policy" [])

The option with the greatest possibility of success and reward for the United States is AND her onto a path that will benefit the nations of the Americas. ¶

Russia and China are competing for business and geopolitical influence in Latin America—weapons deals, strategic alliances and economic ties
**Llana and Downie 10, Sara Miller Llana is the Monitor~’s European Bureau Chief based in Paris., She covered Latin America for the paper, from Mexico City, for seven years. She has a masters in journalism from Columbia University and a BA in history from the University of Michigan. Andrew Downie is a correspondent for the Christian Science Monitor(Sara/Andrew, "Iran, Russia, China beat a path to Latin America~’s door" 4/23/10, Christian Science Monitor, http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/2010/0423/Iran-Russia-China-beat-a-path-to-Latin-America-s-door)//AD** Latin America suddenly finds itself with many suitors. In the same week, Chinese AND market," Mr. Maciel says. "We need to learn more."

Cuba is ground zero for expansionism—economic and military ties are setting the groundwork for future spheres of influence
Llana 12, Sara Miller Llana is the Monitor~’s European Bureau Chief based in Paris. She covered Latin America for the paper, from Mexico City, for seven years. She has a masters in journalism from Columbia University and a BA in history from the University of Michigan(Sara, "50 years after Cuba missile crisis, US influence in hemisphere waning" 10/14/12, The Christian Science Monitor, http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas /2012/1014/50-years-after-Cuba-missile-crisis-US-influence-in-hemisphere-waning)//AD

Investment from emerging economies like China and Russia are diminishing Latin America~’s reliance on the AND pariah state; it is now a linchpin for all the other countries."

Extinction—Chinese and Russian expansionism spurs development of opposing alliances, military deals and arms races.
Nyquist 06, Independent journalist and policy analyst. Jeffrey Nyquist is a writer for Financial Sense and an expert in Chinese and Russian military and foreign policy strategies. He was formerly a Contractor for the Defense Intelligence Agency(Jeffrey, "MORE TRICKS," 3/24/06, Financial Sense, http://www.financialsensearchive.com/stormwatch/geo/pastanalysis /2006/0324.html)//AD

The strategic alliance of Russia and China continues to develop, embracing an ever AND something the Russians have encouraged for many years. Everything here is interconnected.

United States sphere of influence key to check back instability—promotion of regional institutes and reforms
Wood 06, Sgt. Sara Wood is a sergeant in the United States Armed Forces, a writer and photographer who specializes in military affairs(Sara, "U.S. Support Critical to Latin American Stability, Commander Says," 3/14/06, United States Department of Defense/American Forces Press Service, http://www.defense.gov/News/newsarticle.aspx?id=15175)//AD

WASHINGTON, March 14, 2006 – Latin America faces security problems and threats to AND influences recede and internal democratic processes are strengthened and mature, Craddock said.

Trade embargo isolates Cuba and is the underpinning factor that threatens relations—continuation of this policy risks loss of American influence and loss of regional legitimacy
**Huddleston and Pascual 09, **Vicki Huddleston is a visiting fellow at Brookings and co-director of the Brookings Project on U.S. Policy Toward a Cuba in Transition. Carlos Pascual is vice president and director of Foreign Policy at Brookings(Vicki/Carlos, "REFRAME U.S. – CUBA RELATIONS" No Specific Date 2009, The Brookings Institute, http://www.brookings.edu//media/Research/Files/Reports/2009/4/13%20summit%20americas /0413_summit_americas_huddleston_pascual.PDF)//AD Cuba policy should be a pressing issue for the Obama administration because it offers a AND he has ample executive authority to put in place a policy of engagement.

US engagement helps push against Chinese and Russian influence—developing economic and political relationships is key
Villarreal 09, Policy analyst and writer for Global Security and the Voice of America(Alex, "Clinton Says US to Counter Chinese, Iranian and Russian Influence in Latin America"5/2/09, http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2009/05/mil-090502-voa08.htm)//AD

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton says the Obama administration is working AND have different views, but that pursuing better relationships is worth a try.

The plan boosts the Cuban sugar ethanol industry which will displace U.S. corn ethanol
Holmes, 10– B.A. from Georgetown, Master~’s Thesis (Michael G., June 21, 2010, "Seizing the Moment", [], pg. 74-78)//NG

Creating a new market for U.S. goods and services creates a strong AND Cuba~’s technology sector and potentially increase the ease and volume of ethanol production.

High corn ethanol demand will deplete the Ogallala Aquifer
Specht, 13 – Legal Advisor, Pearlmaker Holsteins, Inc., B.A., LSU (Jonathan, "Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol~’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States", UC Davis, 4-24-13, http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf-http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf )//NG

In addition to habitat destruction, water consumption is another environmental consequence resulting from AND as another detrimental environmental effect of the domestic corn-based ethanol industry.

Threatens peak water which leads to food shortage and water wars
Brown ~’13 - president of the Earth Policy Institute and author of Full Planet, Empty Plates: The New Geopolitics of Food Scarcity (Lester, "~’The real threat to our future is peak water~’", the guardian, July 10 2013, http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/2013/jul/06/water-supplies-shrinking-threat-to-food) //CW

In the US, farmers are over-pumping in the Great Plains, including AND are pumped dry, but also a shrinking share of that shrinking supply.

Water wars cause global nuclear conflict
NASCA 2006 – the National Association for Scientific %26 Cultural Appreciation ("Water Shortages – Only A Matter Of Time." http://www.nasca.org.uk/Strange_relics_/water/water.html)

Water is one of the prime essentials for life as we know it. The AND ourselves with a nightmare situation for which there will be no obvious answer.

Collapsing global water supply causes extinction
Marlow, 01 – National Chairperson of the Council of Canadians and IFG Committee on the Globalization of Water. (Maude, "BLUE GOLD: The Global Water Crisis and the Commodification of the World~’s Water Supply," http://www.ratical.org/co-globalize/BlueGold.pdf.

Perhaps the most devastating analysis of the global water crisis comes from hydrological engineer Michal AND vast territories, massive continental desertification and, eventually, "global collapse."

Food insecurity due to shortage will redraw the geopolitical map and cause a huge wave of food wars
Ikerd 2002 – Professor Emeritus of Agricultural Economics @ University of Missouri (John E. Ikerd, "Small Farms: The Foundation for Long-Run Food Security," Presented at "A Time to Act: Providing Educators with Resources to Address Small Farm Issues," sponsored by University of Illinois, Agroecology/Sustainable Agriculture Program, Effingham and Peoria, IL, Nov. 13-14, 2002, pg. http://web.missouri.edu/ikerdj/papers/IllSmall.html) Economists argue we need not be concerned about becoming dependent upon the rest of the AND will we have to fight, and how many people will be killed. Many consumers, members of the public, seem to agree with the economists. AND free market" economy to ensure that the needs of society are met. However, a growing number of people are concerned about the corporate industrialization of agriculture AND as we are today. They are concerned about the sustainability of agriculture. This growing concern for agricultural sustainability is raising some "common sense" questions about AND, and ethically – both for ourselves and for those of future generations? Sustainable farming systems must be ecologically sound, economically viable, and socially responsible. AND , economic viability, or social responsibility, quite simply is not sustainable. There is growing evidence that current concerns for the sustainability of agriculture are well founded AND -renewable fossil energy than it captures in solar energy from the sun. The long run food security of America ultimately depends on the sustainability of its agriculture AND willingness and ability to ensure the sustainability of its food and farming systems.

The plan~’s reform plank spurs greater investment in Cuban sugar ethanol
Soligo %26 Jaffe, 10– Rice Scholar at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, Rice University AND Wallace S. Wilson Fellow in Energy Studies at Rice University (Ronald AND Amy Myers, Cuba~’s Energy Future Strategic Approaches to Cooperation, p. )//NG

The Structure of an Ethanol Industry If Cuba decides to develop an ethanol industry it AND not be subject to state control, and could lead to income inequalities.

For the 2NR, we have gone for neolib k and topicality.