John+and%20Akila


 * Advantages:**
 * Korean conflict: cbws scenario and Korean war**
 * Regionalism: regional security without US**
 * ROK Modernization: withdrawal allows SK to deter China**


 * Plan Text: The United States federal government should implement a phased withdrawal of its ground troops in the Republic of Korea.**


 * Advantage 1 is Korean Conflict**


 * U.S. presence makes North Korean provocations inevitable and guarantees our draw in**
 * Bandow, 10** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (5/3/10, Doug, “Taming Pyongyang,” [], JMP)

Suspicions continue to mount …To argue that America must continue doing so in 2010 is bizarre.


 * Even if a conflict won’t start __intentionally__, current high tensions risk __accidents__ that __escalate__ to global nuclear war**
 * STRATFOR, 10** (5/26/10, “North Korea, South Korea: The Military Balance on the Peninsula,” [], JMP)

Managing Escalation But no …situation escalates much further.


 * The status quo is fundamentally different – nuclear use is now likely and deterrence won’t solve**
 * Chung, 10** – Visiting Professor at the School of International Relations, Nanyang Technological University and former Professor of international relations at Seoul National University (6/1/10, Chung Chong Wook, “The Korean Crisis: Going Beyond the Cheonan Incident,” http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/Perspective/RSIS0352010.pdf)

The sinking of the Cheonan …pessimism is not advisable.


 * Reinforcing deterrence just makes __miscalculation__ more likely**
 * Armstrong, 10** – Professor of history and director of the Center for Korean Research at Columbia University (Charles, 5/26/10, CNN, “The Korean War never ended” [])

New York (CNN) -- The Korean War … War, not start it anew.


 * Deliberate, accidental or unauthorized CBW use is likely**
 * ICG, 09** (6/18/09, International Crisis Group, “North Korea’s Chemical and Biological Weapons Programs,” [], JMP)

This report examines North Korea’s … WMD attacks or incidents.


 * Will __spread globally__ within __six weeks__ – greater risk that nuclear weapons**
 * Levy, 07** (6-8-07, Janet Ellen, The American Thinking, “The Threat of Bioweapons,” [], JMP)

Immediately following 9-11, an anthrax … can be developed within days.


 * Impact is extinction**
 * Ochs 02** – MA in Natural Resource Management from Rutgers University and Naturalist at Grand Teton National Park [Richard, “BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS MUST BE ABOLISHED IMMEDIATELY,” Jun 9, http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html]

Of all the weapons of mass… the highest of all crimes.


 * And, North Korean aggression and nuclearization will cause intentional, miscalculated, or accidental nuclear conflict – even a limited nuclear war causes rapid cooling and ozone disruption, collapses the economy, and spills over to other hot spots**
 * Hayes & Hamel-Green, 10** – *Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development, AND ** Executive Dean of the Faculty of Arts, Education and Human Development act Victoria University (1/5/10, Executive Dean at Victoria, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia,” [])

The international community is increasingly …consideration from the international community.


 * Withdrawing troops is the best response to North Korea’s perception of U.S. weakness – stops it from drawing U.S. forces into a wider conflict**
 * Stanton, 10** – U.S. Army Judge Advocate in Korea from 98-02 and practicing attorney in Washington, D.C. (4/12/10, Joshua, The New Ledger, “It's Time for the U.S. Army to Leave Korea,” [], JMP)

Proceeding against the advice … aligns with the correct result.

**Independently,** **withdrawal will motivate South Korea and China to stabilize and de-nuclearize the peninsula**
 * Erickson, 10** – Executive Director of CenterMovement.org (5/6/10, Stephen, “End the Cold War in Korea: Bring American Troops Home Before it’s Too Late,” [], JMP

On the night of March 26 … before it’s too late.


 * Advantage 2 is Regionalism**


 * U.S. alliance relationships are unsustainable – Asian powers should develop a regional security strategy that __does not__ rely on the U.S. – solves WMD terrorism, tame China, prevents Sino-Japan conflict, Japan imperialism, solve resource conflicts and stop major power domination**
 * Francis, 06** – former Australian Ambassador to Croatia and fellow at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University from 05-06 (Fall 2006, Neil, Harvard International Review, “For an East Asian Union: Rethinking Asia's Cold War Alliances,” [], JMP)

At the conclusion of the Second World War, … independent East Asian Union.


 * Regionalism is currently halfhearted – only a __clear sign__ of U.S. withdrawal can motivate __sustainable__ regional security cooperation **
 * Carpenter and Bandow 4 - * ** Vice President of Defense and Foreign Studies at the Cato Institute, AND ** Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute ** ( ** Ted Galen Carpenter, 12/2004, The Korean Conundrum: America’s Troubled Relations With North and South Korea, pg 160-161)DR

The security treaties with the…central and west-central Pacific.


 * Specially, withdrawal will reduce Korea’s veto of multilateral security mechanisms – yielding a peace system on the peninsula that prevents great power war**
 * Lee, 09** – Seoul National University (December 2009, Geun, “The Nexus between Korea’s Regional Security Options and Domestic Politics,” [|www.cfr.org], JMP)

Korea’s Option of Multilateral Security Cooperation in Northeast Asia… a loose form of the U.S.-Korea alliance.


 * Accelerating U.S. withdrawal is key to catalyze a multipolar balance of power in the region and pave the way for an off-shore balancing strategy.**
 * Espiritu, 06** – Commander, U.S. Navy (3/15/06, Commander Emilson M. Espiritu, “The Eagle Heads Home: Rethinking National Security Policy for The Asia-Pacific Region,” [], JMP)

Can the U.S. live with the risk of…for the Eagle to head home


 * Independently, U.S. presence saps South Korea’s desire to develop its own independent defense and diplomatic strategy and boost morale to effectively deter North Korea**
 * Wook-Sik, 06** – representative of the Civil Network for a Peaceful Korea (Cheong, 4/4/06, “ROK-U.S. Alliance: More Harm Than Good” [])

Considering all these figures, ….strain of its alliance with America.


 * Strengthening the East Asian regional security architecture key to solve terrorism, territorial disputes, disease, environmental degradation, and maritime security**
 * Nanto, 08** – Specialist in Industry and Trade Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division for Congressional Research Services (1/4, “East Asian Regional Architecture: New Economic and Security Arrangements and U.S. Policy,” www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33653.pdf)

A stronger regional security …or will exist in the future.


 * Territorial disputes draw in great powers --- causes World War 3**
 * Waldron, 97** – professor of strategy and policy at the U.S. Naval War College and an associate of the Fairbank Center for East Asian Research at Harvard (March 1997, Arthur, Commentary, “How Not to Deal with China,” EBSCO

MAKING THESE flash-points …or India, or Japan--or the U nited S tates.

__catastrophic threats," he added__ An American academic says


 * Advantage three is South Korean Defense**

Bennett 10--- (Bruce, Senior Policy Analyst – RAND Corporation, “S. Korea’s Military Capability ‘Inadequate’”, Chosun Ilbo, 1-29, http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/01/29/2010012900705.html)
 * South Korea is free-riding – defense spending is tiny**

An American academic says…catastrophic threats," he added__.__


 * Plan prompts South Korean conventional force modernization which allows it to deter Chinese aggression**
 * Bandow, 09** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to Reagan (6/16/09, Doug, “A Tattered Umbrella,” http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=21606, JMP

South Korea’s foreign minister … dispute into an international crisis.

McDevitt 8 (Michael, Rear Admiral – US Navy (Ret.), Center for Naval Analyses, “Asian Military Modernization: Key Areas of Concern”, 6-4, http://www.iiss.org/conferences/global-strategic-challenges-as-played-out-in-asia/asias-strategic-challenges-in-search-of-a-common-agenda/conference-papers/fourth-session-an-asian-arms-race/asian-military-modernization-key-areas-of-concern-michael-mcdevitt/) __Military modernization __ goes on continuously …This will fuel the capabilities competition.
 * Chinese rise makes multiple regional conflicts inevitable – only ROK conventional deterrence solves**


 * Adams, 09** – reporter for global post and newsweek on China and Taiwan (3/31/09, Jonathon, Global Post, “The dragon sharpens its claws,” http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/china-and-its-neighbors/090331/the-dragon-sharpens-its-claws )

TAIPEI — It's the stuff of dark … and the rising Asian giant Chinese aggression against Taiwan will escalate and go nuclear


 * Escalation is likely – impact is full-scale US/China nuclear war**

Dodge 5 (Paul, Department of Defense and Strategic Studies – Missouri State University, “China’s Naval Strategy and Nuclear Weapons: The Risks of Intentional and Inadvertent Nuclear Escalation”, Comparative Strategy, 24(5), December, p. 415-416)

the summer of 2005, Chinese Major-General …warfighting strategy may be revealed.

(Ching Cheong, The Straits Times, “No one gains in war over Taiwan,” 6-25-2000, Lexis-Nexis Universe)
 * THE IMPACT IS Extinction**
 * Cheong, 2000** – East Asia Correspondent

A cross-strait conflict, even ….sovereignty above everything else.