Jessi+&+Jacob

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Plan
The United States federal government should remove necessary restrictions on and substantially increase necessary leasing of offshore natural gas production in the United States.

Natural gas prices will keep increasing despite flat consumption—that impacts sectors throughout the economy
Schwartzel, 13 [Erich Schwartzel, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Expert on Fracking, visited Pappas’ Public Policy Class and was part of a round table discussion that consisted of Barry Rabe, professor at UM and others, really funny too, “U.S. report predicts rising natural gas prices in 2013-14”, []]

The average price of natural gas is expected to //increase// by almost a dollar in //2013// , AND almost half of the 811 rigs seen in the beginning of the year. But domestic gas production is expected to remain relatively steady despite the drop in rig count, which the EIA said suggests greater rig efficiency in extracting more gas from a single location.

The impact is price spikes
Maize, 12/1/12 [“Is Shale Gas Shallow or the Real Deal?”, Kennedy, Veteran Journalist¶ Kennedy Maize has spent the past 40 years working as a journalist, analyst, and manager in the private sector and federal government, with over 35 years of that focused on energy and environmental topics. Over that time, he has seen myriad examples of how group think, policy fads, and bad judgment can result in colossal failures, particularly in the field of atomic energy. Maize has seen, up close and personal, the demise of the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, the arrival of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the birth of the U.S. Department of Energy, the failures of nuclear flight, the hubris of atomic earthmoving, the boom and bust uranium market, the birth and death of breeder reactors, and the 60-year wandering in the wilderness of nuclear waste policy. After graduating from Penn State and graduate study at the University of Maryland, Kennedy Maize worked for newspapers in Pennsylvania, New York, and Virginia and the Associated Press in Baltimore. He then spent five years in management at the National Institute of Health and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission before taking a job covering energy, environment, and business topics for Editorial Research Reports, a division of Congressional Quarterly, where his work appeared in over 1,000 daily newspapers in the U.S. during the mid-to-late 1970s. Maize became a staff writer and editor at The Energy Daily, a preeminent energy trade paper, on March 28, 1979, the day the Three Mile Island accident began outside Harrisburg, Pa. Over more than 10 years at The Energy Daily, he covered the nuclear and coal industries, including stories involving the Clinch River Breeder Reactor, the U.S. Synthetic Fuels Corp., the Powder River Basin coal leasing scandal, and the Chernobyl explosion. In 1993, he founded The Electricity Daily, where he was the editor for 14 years, writing about changes in the electricity business, the rise and fall of Enron, the stagnation of the nuclear power business, and the arrival of market forces in the utility field. Since 2006, he has been an editor at POWER magazine, and the founder of MANAGING POWER magazine, where he has written about the Fukushima catastrophe, the emergence of shale gas and decline of coal, and the often ill-advised push for renewable electricity technologies¶ http://www.powermag.com/gas/Is-Shale-Gas-Shallow-or-the-Real-Deal_5188.html]

In an interview with POWER, Berman argued that the boom in drilling shale gas wells has obscured a long-term decline in conventional gas supply. But __a coming rapid decline in shale production__ AND __There will be gas-coal switching if prices do go much higher than now.”__

Robust __domestic__ production is key to __manufacturing__ growth—that’s the basis for economic recovery
Duesterberg, 12 [Tom is Executive Director of the Manufacturing and Society in the 21st Century program at the Aspen Institute. He recently retired as President and CEO of The Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, an economic research and executive education organization based in Arlington, Virginia with more than 500 manufacturing firms as members. Previous positions include: Director of the Washington Office of The Hudson Institute, Assistant Secretary for International Economic Policy at the U.S. Department of Commerce, chief of staff to two members of Congress, and associate instructor at Stanford University. His commentary and analysis on manufacturing, economic performance, globalization, and related policy issues can be found in major news outlets. He holds a B.A. degree from Princeton and M. A. and Ph.D. degrees from Indiana University, “Impact of the Energy Boom on US Manufacturing”, []]

The manufacturing //sector//has been leading the US economic recoverysince the end of the Great Recession in 2009. AND . This is due in part to the //substitution of natural gas//, in part due to productivity increases, and in part due to higher use of renewable energy—manufacturing uses 90 percent more renewables than the transportation sector.

__Maintaining low prices__ through adequate supply is key to lock in a massive economic benefit—that __galvanizes key industries__
Pirog and Ratner 12- *Energy specialist in the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies International Economics Program, **specialist in energy policy for the Congressional Research Service (Robert and Michael, “Natural Gas in the U.S. Economy: Opportunities for Growth” Congressional News Service, http://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42814.pdf)//WK Expanded supply, coupled with low natural gas prices, has the potential to contribute to a transformation of important sectors of the U.S. economy. AND However, for this to occur, traditional long-run contract terms, specifically linking natural gas prices to oil prices, would need to be changed to a more market-oriented method.

Natural gas production directly correlates with growth and innovation—unique spillover effects
Carey, 12/13/12 [Julie M, Julie M. Carey is an energy economist with Navigant Economics who provides consulting and testifying services Navigant’s unconventional oil and gas offerings include advisory services for strategic business decision analysis, construction risk management, economic and antitrust analyses, investment banking and restructuring advisory services, and expert services for disputes and investigations, “How Unconventional Oil And Gas Is Supercharging The U.S. Economy”, http://www.forbes.com/sites/energysource/2012/12/13/how-unconventional-oil-and-gas-is-transforming-the-u-s-economy/]

It’s an exciting time to be in the energy industry in America. The impact of unconventional oil and gas development__ on the ____U.S. economy is considerable, with potentially hundreds of billions__ of dollars in investments, millionsof __new jobs, and a renaissance of__ American //ingenuity//__and__innovation. AND As a result of the significant near term investments associated with unconventional oil and gas, it’s possible that up to __3.5 million jobs will be____created from the infrastructure build out and related opportunities__ (including both direct and indirect jobs).

Domestic manufacturing is key to overall __resilience__
Ettlinger, 11 [Michael, Vice President for Economic Policy at the Center for ¶ American Progress Prior to joining the Center, he spent six years at the Economic ¶ Policy Institute directing the Economic Analysis and Research Network. ¶ Previously, he was tax policy director for Citizens for Tax Justice and the Institute ¶ on Taxation and Economic Policy for 11 years. He has also served on the staff of ¶ the New York State Assembly. “The Importance and Promise¶ of American Manufacturing Why It Matters if We Make It in America and Where We Stand Today”, http://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/issues/2011/04/pdf/manufacturing.pdf]

__Manufacturing is //critically important// to the //American economy//__. AND But __overreliance on imports and substantial manufacturing¶ trade deficits weaken us in many ways, making us vulnerable to everything from¶ exchange rate fluctuations to trade embargoes to natural disasters__.

Economic collapse causes competition for resources and instability that escalates and goes nuclear
Harris and Burrows, 9 – *counselor in the National Intelligence Council, the principal drafter of Global Trends 2025, **member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis”, Washington Quarterly, http://www.twq.com/09april/docs/09apr_burrows.pdf)

Increased Potential for Global Conflict Of course, the report encompasses more than economics and indeed believes the future is likely to be the result of a number of intersecting and interlocking forces AND With water also becoming scarcer in Asia and the Middle East, cooperation to manage changing water resources is likely to be increasingly difficult both within and between states in __a more dog-eat-dog world.__

Our impact has a strong statistical basis – rally around the flag
Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises,” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-214

Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict__.__ AND This implied connection between integration, crises and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention.

Price Spikes—the shale boom is unsustainable—collapse causes energy price spikes
Ahmed 14  – Dr. Nafeez Ahmed is the Executive Director of the Institute for Policy Research & Development and Chief Research Officer at Unitas Communications where he leads on geopolitical risk. (“Former BP geologist: peak oil is here and it will 'break economies'”, The Guardian, January 2014) What happens when the shale boom... goes boom AND // those //// instabilities will collide, leaving //// us with //// an even bigger financial mess //, on a faster trajectory toward costly environmental destruction.

Price spikes destroy steel manufacturing – the aff solves – low gas prices key to decreasing domestic steel manufacturing costs
America's steel industry, for decades a symbol of industrial decline , is betting on natural gas to make it more competitive against foreign producers. AND Surma said t he shift to natural gas could give U.S. Steel, a 110-year-old symbol of American industrial power, a competitive edge in the 21st Century.
 * James 12** - Correspondent for Reut3ers (Steve, “Analysis: Steelmakers eye gas to cut costs, drive exports”, Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/16/us-steel-gas-idUSBRE82F12Y20120316)//WK

Low steel prices are the vital internal link to primacy
AISI et al. 7- (*American Iron and Steel Institute, **Specialty Steel Industry of North America,** *Steel Manufacturers Association, Steel Manufacturer’s Association, *United Steel Workers, “Steel and the National Defense”, http://www.ssina.com/news/releases/pdf_releases/steel_and_national_defense_0107.pdf)//WK This analysis presented by the U.S. steel industry addresses the importance of domestically-produced steel to our nation’s overall national defense objectives and the increased need for steel to bolster our economic and military security. AND Inventory problems, long lead times and extended construction schedules.

Hegemony solves conflict escalation and great power war
¶ Assessing the Security Benefits of Deep Engagement ¶ Even if **__deep engagement's__** costs are far less than retrenchment advocates claim, they are not worth bearing unless they yield greater benefits. AND
 * Brooks et al 13** [Don't Come Home, America: The Case against Retrenchment Stephen G. Brooks [|(bio)], G. John Ikenberry [|(bio)] and William C. Wohlforth [|(bio)], Stephen G. Brooks; G. John Ikenberry and William C. Wohlforth STEPHEN G. BROOKS is Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College. G. JOHN IKENBERRY is Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University and Global Eminence Scholar at Kyung Hee University in Seoul. WILLIAM C. WOHLFORTH is Daniel Webster Professor of Government at Dartmouth College, International Security ¶ [|Volume 37, Number 3, Winter 2012], p. Project Muse]
 * __Even as it pushes cooperation toward U.S. preferences.__**

Catastrophic warming risks extinction
Mazo 10 – PhD in Paleoclimatology from UCLA (Jeffrey Mazo, Managing Editor, Survival and Research Fellow for Environmental Security and Science Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, 3-2010, “Climate Conflict: How global warming threatens security and what to do about it,” pg. 122)//BB The best estimates for global warming to the end of the century range from 2.5-4.~C above pre-industrial levels, depending on the scenario. AND and even in the best case adaptation to these extremes would mean profound social, cultural and political changes.

Warming is anthropogenic – the most comprehensive data-sets are conclusive
Green 13 – Professor of Chemistry @ Michigan Tech *John Cook – Fellow @ Global Change Institute, produced climate communication resources adopted by organisations such as NOAA and the U.S. Navy **Dana Nuccitelli – MA in Physics @ UC-Davis** *Mark Richardson – PhD Candidate in Meteorology, et al., (“Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature,” Environmental Research Letters, 8.2)//BB An accurate perception of the degree of scientific consensus is an essential element to public support for climate policy (Ding et al 2011). AND
 * __A__** mong papers expressing a position on AGW, an overwhelming percentage (97.2% based on self-ratings, 97.1% based on abstract ratings) endorses the scientific consensus on AGW.

Keeping it below 4 degrees avoids the worst impacts
Kim 12 – PhD in Anthropology @ Harvard, former president of Dartmouth, Now President of the World Bank (Jim Yong, “Turn Down the Heat,” p. ix)//BB AND is designed with the threat of a 4°C degree world in mind. The World Bank Group will step up to the challenge.
 * __The 4°C scenarios are devastating__** : the inundation of coastal cities; **__increasing risks for food produc- tion__** potentially leading to **__higher malnutrition rates__**

CO2 emissions will run away in the status quo—natural gas is the only effective alternative to coal—U.S. development is modeled globally and prevents extinction
Riley 12 —BA, LL.M., PhD, professor of energy law at The City Law School at City University London (Alan, 8/13/12, “Shale Gas to the Climate Rescue,” http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/14/opinion/shale-gas-to-the-climate-rescue.html, RBatra)

The battle against runaway climate change is being lost. AND The U nited S tates could also lead the way in creating a credible, alternative climate change strategy in which the use of shale gas becomes the driver of radical cuts in carbon dioxide emissions over the short and medium term.

Natural gas is the bridge to renewables, CCS, and Nuclear power
Researchers at the M assachusetts I nstitute of T echnology are encouraging U.S. policymakersto consider the nation's growing supply of natural gas as a short-term substitute AND The substitution effect, mainly gas generation for coal generation, outweighs the demand reduction effect."
 * Kirkland 10** - Deputy editor for climate wire(Joel, “Natural Gas Could Serve as 'Bridge' Fuel to Low-Carbon Future”, Scientific American, http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/natural-gas-could-serve-as-bridge-fuel-to-low-carbon-future/)AM

OCS expansion key to solve warming – the impact is extinction
Lamborn, 08 [Path of wisdom: Open up Outer Continental Shelf to gas drilling, House Representative Doug Republican Colorado, []] Many years ago that great philosopher Woody Allen wrote, “More than any other time in history, mankind faces acrossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. AND I see a bad moon rising / I see trouble on the way.”

Restrictions cover 85% of the OCS and they must be lifted but federal action is key – Congress has to fund DOI leasing projects
Washington must do something about the increasing price of gasoline, AND Thus far, none of these efforts has been successful.
 * Lieberman 8** – senior policy analyst for Energy and Environment for the Heritage Foundation (Ben, “Listing the Offshore Drilling Ban: A Positive Step in the Fight against High Energy Prices”, The Heritage Foundation, 7/14/2008, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2008/07/lifting-the-offshore-drilling-ban-a-positive-step-in-the-fight-against-high-energy-prices)//BD

Otherwise, restrictions crush predictability and timing of projects
Curry L. Hagerty (Specialist in Energy and Natural Resources Policy at the Congressional Research Service) June 15, 2010 “Outer Continental Shelf Moratoria on Oil and Gas Development” http://crs.ncseonline.org/nle/crsreports/10Jul/R41132.pdf

__One legacy of congressional moratoria is their impact on the timing of possible OCS development.__ __AND__ proponents of annual congressional moratoria provisions countered that restrictions were defensible in the absence of more permanent alternatives for similar leasing prohibitions

And, that sustains low prices and ensures adequate supply
Hastings, 12 [House Representative Doc, Republican Washington, President Obama's offshore drilling plan must be replaced, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/energy-a-environment/239529-president-obamas-offshore-drilling-plan-must-be-replaced]

__Though__ President __Obama uses lofty rhetoric to claim support for__ American oil and __natural gas production__, __the administration chose____to bury the announcement of this plan__ under mountains of news coverage. AND , or support using American energy to __create__ American __jobs and //strengthen America’s////economy//__.

And, the plan creates certainty for offshore production—balances supply
Mr. GRILES. **__America’s__** public **__lands have an abundant opportunity for exploration and //development//__****__of__** renewable and nonrenewable **__energy resources__**.
 * Griles 3** [Lisa, Deputy Secretary, Department of the Interior, “Energy Production on Federal Lands,” Hearing before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, United States Senate]
 * __AND__**
 * __We need this authority in order to be able to truly give the private sector what are the rules to play from and buy, //so they can have// //certainty about where to go.//__**

Nearly 100 new projects are capable of development

 * Hillegeist et al 11** (President and COO at Quest Offshore Resources, Inc, Sean Shafer, Project Director, Andrew Jackson, Project Manager, Leslie Cook, Senior Research Consultant) December 2011 “The State of the Offshore U.S. Oil and Gas Industry” http://energytomorrow.org/images/uploads/Quest_2011_December_29_Final.pdf
 * __If drilling permits going forward were to be issued at pre__****__‐moratorium rates, the number of shallow water project s delayed could be significantly reduced__**
 * __AND__**
 * __Additional access to offshore areas currently off__****__‐limits remains a key missing component of U.S. energy policy, and would provide substantial additional gains__** to the nation in terms of energy security, employment and government revenue.

= PAST 2nr's = Round 2
 * 1) Ex- Im ptx, against desalination