Patrick-and-Kinens-wiki

Afghanistan Aff with Heg, afghan stability, and NATO relations.

The United States Federal Government should phase out its combat troops from Afghanistan starting July 2011.

1AC - Inherency Withdrawal is inevitable, but Obama signaled a shift from the original July 2011 timetable by replacing McChrystal Petraeus. Riedel, 6/28/10 - Former Obama Advisor (Bruce, Interview with Spiegel, “McChrystal has made a Fool of himself,” Spiegel, http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,703243,00.html CT) Riedel: If there is a silver … needs to succeed in Afghanistan.

1AC - Plan Text The United States Federal Government should phase out its combat troops from Afghanistan starting July 2011.

1AC - Hegemony Adv. Adv. ___ - U.S. Hegemony The United States merely needs to maintain its status as a global hegemon. Primary negative scenarios wrong for why military presence are wrong - staying in Afghanistan will only weaken U.S. hegemony.


 * Innocent, 09** – Foreign Policy Analyst Cato Institute (July 2009, CQ Researcher, “Afghanistan Dilemma” http://library.cqpress.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/cqresearcher/document.php?id=cqresrre2009080706&type=hitlist, IC)

No strategic, political or economic … and economically than would withdrawal __.__ Continuing to commit to larger military footprint in Afghanistan undermines U.S. hegemony in several ways: First, public support for counterinsurgency will only last for 3 years. While Obama taking ownership for the war reset this clock, the American public will demand improvement by the end of the year. Such improvement is empirically denied - parallels between Afghanistan and 1949 Communist China prove.

The **Obama administration is running … to Chiang than to Uribe**. Material preponderance not key – if public support for engagement collapses, then unipolarity will unravel Kupchan, ‘2 - Professor of International Relations, … of the Twenty-First Century, p. 63)
 * Gvosdev, 6/25/10** - former editor of the National Interest (Nikolas, “The Realist Prism: Knowing When to Walk Away from Afghanistan,” World Politics View, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/5891/the-realist-prism-knowing-when-to-walk-away-from-afghanistan CT)

The second trend that will … resources were to remain supreme.

Second, continuing counterinsurgency efforts in Afghanistan will overstretch the military.

Dorronsoro 10 - Visiting Scholar @ Carnegie (Gilles, “The Case for Negotiations,” May 24th, Carnegie, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=40863 )

The coalition's strategy in Afghanistan … province, would overstretch the U.S. military.


 * Empirically, hegemonic overreach is unsustainable because it destroys diplomatic negotiation as a political tool - it is critical to understanding recurrent global crises and flaws in U.S. hegemony. **

**Florig, 10 **- Hankuk University of Foreign Studies (Dennis, “Hegemonic Overreach vs. Imperial Overstretch,” 2/6, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID1548783_code1259934.pdf?abstractid=1548783&mirid=1 ) JB

The theory of hegemonic overreach … destroy your way of life.

Third, large military footprint in Afghanistan skewing spending in favor of defense spending. This unbalanced approach undermines U.S. primacy.


 * Norris and Sweets, 10— **Executive Director of Enough and a research associate at American Progress, (6/8/10, John and Andrew, Center for American Progress, “Less Is More: Sensible Defense Cuts to Boost Sustainable Security,” http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/06/less_is_more.html ) CS

Our current international posture is … in promoting our interests internationally .


 * American primacy is vital to accessing every major impact—the only threat to world peace is if we allow it to collapse.**
 * Thayer, 06 - ** Professor of security studies at Missouri State (November 2006, Bradley, The National Interest, “In Defense of Primacy”, November/December, p. 32-37)

A grand strategy based on … __ are the equivalent of a blitzkrieg __.

1AC - Afghan Stability Adv. Adv.____ - Afghan Stability
 * US can’t win – unclear objective, can’t replace opium, safe havens in Pakistan, killing increases terrorist recruitment.**


 * O’ Connor ’10 –** former executive director of the Australian Defense Council (6/23/2010, Michael, “Best We Can Do is to Pull Out of Afghanistan” http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/best-we-can-do-is-to-pull-out-of-afghanistan/story-e6frg6zo-1225882965439 ) HG

Prolonging military presence in Afghanistan will only allow Islamic extremist takeover of Pakistan Kristof, ‘9 - a columnist for The Times since 2001, is a two-time Pulitzer Prize winner (Nicholas D., 9/6, “The Afghanistan Abyss,” New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/06/opinion/06kristof.html?_r=1&pagewanted=print CT) President Obama has already dispatched … of American and Afghan blood. Islamic extremist takeover of Pakistan leads to nuclear war. The prospect of Pakistan being …, an expert on strategic games. Extinction The foreign policy of the … Fissile Material/Cut-off Convention.
 * __This is a war that will …__** protect Australia from terrorist attack.
 * Ricks, 01** – senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security and covers Iraq for the Washington Post Staff Writer (Thomas E., 10/21/01, “Some Fear Regional Destabilization, Retribution Against U.S” http://cndyorks.gn.apc.org/news/articles/warconsequences.htm, IC)
 * Fai 7/8/01** (Ghulam Nabi; Executive director - Kashmiri American Council) Washington Times l/n wbw)

Setting clear deadline solves Afghan stability two ways - (1) ensures credible negotiations between Taliban and Karzai and (2) mobilizes assistance for Kabul.


 * Schlesinger, 10— ** an Adjunct Fellow at the Century Foundation in New York City, former Director of the World Policy Institute at the New School University in New York City Governor Mario Cuomo’s speechwriter and foreign policy advisor for 12 years (3/10/10, Stephan, “The Only Way Out Of Afghanistan Is With A Withdrawal Deadline,” http://takingnote.tcf.org/2010/03/the-only-way-out-of-afghanistan-is-a-withdrawal-deadline.html ) CS

What else does a deadline accomplish? **__A … if the U.S. reduced its own__****__. __**

1AC - NATO Adv. Adv. _____ - NATO Alliance NATO alliance is crumbling now due to U.S. bullying of NATO allies in Afghanistan- Afghanistan is decisive moment for alliance. Only way to save NATO is to allow it to withdraw from Afghanistan. Bacevich, ’10 - a professor of history and international relations at Boston University (Andrew J., March/April, “Let Europe be Europe: Why the United States Must Withdraw from NATO,” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/02/22/let_europe_be_europe?page=0,1 CT) Over the course of the … to manage its own affairs. Rossiyskaya Gazeta 10** Russian newspaper featured on a British paper “June 22, 2010, Rossiyskaya Gazeta Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov on relations with Nato, Georgia, and the WTO, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sponsored/russianow/politics/7847648/Russias-foreign-minister-Sergei-Lavrov-on-relations-with-Nato-Georgia-and-the-WTO.html )
 * NATO competence to engage in bilateral communication with Russia key to preventing aggression


 * You said that Nato partners … ** **, which would be very dangerous.**

BBC ’09** (December 16, 2009, British Broadcasting Channel, ITAR-TASS “ Russia may face large-scale military attack, says Strategic Missile Troops chief,” Lexis Nexus, BD) __"As regards military threats … missile strikes__ ," the commander explained.
 * Russia will launch preemptive nuclear strikes with follow-up nuclear attacks to ensure its own safety

Schneider 06 -** analyst for US Nuclear Strategy Forum (2006, Mark, “The Nuclear Forces and Doctrine of the Russian Federation,” http://www.nipp.org/National%20Institute%20Press/Current%20Publications/PDF/Russian%20nuclear%20doctrine%20--%20NSF%20for%20print.pdf ) BD
 * War with Russia would result in use of enhanced radiation, EMP, and improved nuclear weapon designs

__In Russia, today, we see a …, want to fight the Americans__

1AC - Solvency Gen. Stanley McChrystal's talent … **finish withdrawing soon after.**
 * Obama should follow deadline established in December 2009. Five reasons: (1) Karzai government corrupt, (2) presence increases Taliban’s funding, (3) U.S. won’t support drug lords, (4) Pakistan undermining US by funding Taliban, and (5) NATO is withdrawing in July 2011 and U.S. cannot fight alone. **
 * Sarro ’10 ** - studied International Relations and Peace and Conflict Studies at the University of Toronto. (6/23/2010, Doug, “Five Reasons to Withdraw from Afghanistan Sooner Rather Than Later” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/doug-sarro/five-reasons-to-withdraw_b_621903.html ) HG

**Innocent & Carpenter, 09** - *Foreign Policy Analyst at Cato Institute, AND ** Vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at Cato Institute (9/14/09, Cato Institute, “Escaping the ‘Graveyard of Empires’: A Strategy to Exit Afghanistan”, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=10533, IC) Given the nature of …chronic, but manageable, problem. LASTLY, continuing a large military footprint without a clear deadline causes the worst case scenario - fast, complete military and political withdrawal, triggering all the negative’s turns. Withdrawing troops critical to prevent the American public from burnout.
 * AND, combat troops unnecessary to stabilize Afghanistan– offshore balancing solves Afghanistan.**


 * Moselle 09 -** former Acting Executive Director of the Carr Center, former project manager for both the National Security and Human Rights and the Sate Building and Human Rights projects, Carr Center for Human Rights Policy (10/1 Tyler, “Responsible Withdrawal from Afghanistan, Homeland Security Today, ”http://www.hks.harvard.edu/cchrp/sbhrap/news/ _HSToday_20091001.pdf”, KK) CS

Thoughtful proponents of increasing ….against a foreign occupation.