Harry+and+Ryan+(GRAMS-HJPV)

=AFF=

Current reliance on non-US icebreakers puts the entire US commitment to Antarctica in jeopardy
Augustine, 12 - Report of the U.S. Antarctic Program Blue Ribbon Panel; Augustine was the chair of the Panel (Norman, “More and Better Science in Antarctica Through Increased Logistical Effectiveness” July, http://www.nsf.gov/od/opp/usap_special_review/usap_brp/rpt/antarctica_07232012.pdf)//DH **USAP = US Antarctic Program**// // The U.S. inventory of icebreakers relevant to McMurdo resupply operations is effectively // // AND // // S. government, preferably an icebreaker //owned and operated by the USCG//.

That threatens the stability of the Antarctic Treaty
Augustine, 12 - Report of the U.S. Antarctic Program Blue Ribbon Panel; Augustine was the chair of the Panel (Norman, “More and Better Science in Antarctica Through Increased Logistical Effectiveness” July, http://www.nsf.gov/od/opp/usap_special_review/usap_brp/rpt/antarctica_07232012.pdf Setting aside the ambiguities associated with the federal budgeting process, logistics planning in Antarctica AND  runway and ice pier construction and thereby impact both air and sea operations.

Collapse of the Antarctic treaty leads to war
Roura 11 (Ricardo, graduate in geology from University of Buenos Aires, M.Phil from Massey University - Advisor to the Antarctic Ocean Alliances Marine Protected Areas campaign - SOC representative to the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meetings - “Antarctica’s Wilderness Values”, 2011, []) As we continue to move towards more "advanced" forms of exploitation of the AND destroyed. Maybe the future of Antarctica will rely on this duel protection.

Most likely escalation scenario – modeled worldwide
Triggs 11 – Professor of Law @ Sydney Gillian, “The Antarctic Treaty System: A Model of Legal Creativity and Cooperation,” http://www.atsummit50.org/media/book-8.pdf As Antarctica and the Southern Ocean are vulnerable to increasing  threats from terrorism and conflict AND common interests and values that are more comprehensive those of traditional national sovereignty.

Antarctic science is the vital internal link to global science diplomacy
Collins 11 – Center for Global Sustainability Studies and major sponsor of the 22nd Pacific Science Congress (June 2011, “Founded on science, world cooperation in Antarctica a model for meeting climate, other challenges,” []) mj __The success of world co-operation based on science__ and practiced since the Cold AND __and people to work together in decision-making on shared global interests."__

Reliance on foreign icebreakers is undermining the credibility and quality of US polar science leadership
Conley, 12 - director and senior fellow of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).(Heather, “A New Security Architecture for the Arctic: an American perspective” January, csis.org)//DH Although the United States lacks an overarching Arctic economic development strategy and suffers from insufficient AND to miss the opportunities of the Arctic while watching other nations advance.”61

Icebreakers are crucial to revitalizing US polar sciences leadership – it’s key to understanding the environment
NRC 7 – working arm of the United States National Academies, which produces reports that shape policies, inform public opinion, and advance the pursuit of science, engineering, and medicine (National Research Council, “Polar Icebreakers in a Changing World: An Assessment of US Needs,” []) mj Fundamental advances resulting from polar research have directly benefited society. Polar research led to AND adequate icebreaking capabilities will be essential to advancing research in both polar regions.

Science diplomacy is an impact filter
Federoff 8 – professor of biology at Penn State University known for her research on biology and life sciences, president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) (April 2008, “International Science and Technology Cooperation: Hearing Before the Subcommittee on Research and Science Education,” Committee on Science and Technology, []) mj Chairman Baird, Ranking Member Ehlers, and distinguished members of the Subcommittee, thank AND a means to enhance security, increase global partnerships, and create sustainability. = = = =

Russian Arctic militarization is expanding rapidly – the lack of ice-capable ships prevents a US response
As the U.S. and E.U. keep a very close AND by entering into a military buildup simply to dominate Russia in the Arctic.
 * Mitchell 14** – Jon Mitchell is an independent author for Foreign Policy Journal, citing Naval Statements and Nicholas Cunningham, an expert in the field (“Russia’s Territorial Ambition and Increased Military Presence in the Arctic” April 23, 2014 []) zabd

Expanding militarization risks conflict among multiple rising Arctic powers
The Arctic, always before on the frigid edges of the international imagination, is AND exploitation of the Arctic “will become a future mission of the navy .”
 * Blank, 14** - Stephen J. Blank is a senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council; served as the Strategic Studies Institute’s expert on the Soviet bloc and the post-Soviet world since 1989. Prior to that he was Associate Professor of Soviet Studies at the Center for Aerospace Doctrine, Research, and Education, Maxwell Air Force Base (Stephen, “Enter Asia: The Arctic Heats Up” World Affairs Journal, March/April, [|http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/enter-asia-arctic-heats)//DH]

Claims of Arctic cooperation don’t account for the decline in U.S. leadership which makes great power war likely
The Arctic in the unipolar moment One of the cornerstones of America's unipolar moment has AND the structure are very likely to translate into changes to state security strategies.
 * Murray, 12** – Vice President of Research at the Frontier Centre for Public Policy and an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Alberta. He holds a senior fellowship at the Atlantic Institute for Market Studies, a research fellowship at the University of Calgary’s Centre for Military and Strategic Studies, and a research fellowship at the University of Alberta’s European Union Centre of Excellence.(Robert, “Arctic politics in the emerging multipolar system: challenges and consequences” The Polar Journal, June, Taylor & Francis)//DH

High tensions in the arctic will escalate due to competition absent the plan
Aerandir 12 (Mate Wesley Aerandir Lieutenant United States Navy B.A., “BREAKING THE ICE: POTENTIAL U.S.-RUSSIAN MARITIME CONFLICT IN THE ARCTIC” December 2012, http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a573497.pdf)//HA// // There is ample reason and precedent suggesting that countries will resort to armed conflict to // // AND // threat of a militarized conflict in the Arctic is therefore real as well.//

US-Russia war causes extinction
The ongoing crisis in Ukraine has made it clear that the danger of nuclear war AND of nuclear weapons, there is the danger of an accidental nuclear war.
 * Helfand 14** – Ira Helfand has an M.D and is the past president of Physicians for Social Responsibility. He is the co-president of the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War. (“Another View: Ukraine crisis puts focus on danger of nuclear war”, @http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/2014/05/04/another-view-ukraine-crisis-danger-nuclear-war/8665185/, May 3, 2014)

The plan would revitalize US presence in the Arctic that __spills over__ to international influence
Economic activity is predicted to increase and move northward as a result of sea- AND government polar icebreaking capability to ensure year-round access throughout the region.
 * NRC 7** – working arm of the United States National Academies, which produces reports that shape policies, inform public opinion, and advance the pursuit of science, engineering, and medicine (National Research Council, “Polar Icebreakers in a Changing World: An Assessment of US Needs,” []) mj

US Arctic leadership generates __allied cooperation__ sufficient to check Russia
(CNN) -- While much of the world is focused on the Russian AND a safe, secure and prosperous region in which to live and work.
 * Slayton and Rosen 3-14-14** -- research fellow at the Hoover Institution and co-chair of the Hoover Institution's Arctic Security Initiative AND an international and national security lawyer by training, is a senior legal adviser at CNA Corporation (David M.* and Mark E.**, “Another region where the Russian military threatens to dominate the U.S.,” CNN, [])BC

The perception of arctic counterbalancing induces Russian cooperation
The United States devotes much of its diplomatic and military energies to the Middle East AND Congress “to start building infrastructure up there” (Joling and Papp).
 * Dowd 11** – Senior Fellow of the Fraser Institute and Senior Editor of Fraser Insight. In addition to conducting research into defence and security, he has contributed to the Institute’s Economic Freedom of North America Annual Report. Dowd is an adjunct professor at Butler University; was as a founding member of the Sagamore Institute leadership team, where he continues to hold a senior fellow post; and was director of Hudson Institute’s corporate headquarters (Alan, “The Big Chill: Energy Needs Fueling Tensions in the Arctic,” []) zabd

The plan retrofits current icebreakers as a stopgap solution – solves timeframe issues
[])//DH// // WASHINGTON — The U.S. Coast Guard’s No. 2 commander said refurbishing // // AND // // needs to act quickly . //“That window is now// ,” he said.
 * Song, 14** (Kyung, The Seattle Times, “Coast Guard makes case to refurbish idled icebreaker” 6/18

Their cooperation defense doesn’t apply --- Crimea
T he [|Crimea crisis] has compelled many Western states to re-evaluate strategic cooperation with AND create conditions that encourage militarization and put stability at risk in the Arctic.
 * Norris 3-27-14** -- Intern at the Carnegie Moscow Center (Sarah, “Despite Crimea, Western-Russian Cooperation in the Arctic Should Continue,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, []

Russia is taking aggressive military actions in the Arctic --- proves its not cooperative
Today the world continues to focus on Moscow’s brazen aggression in Ukraine and its blatant AND act as a rogue actor in the Arctic, as it has elsewhere. = = = NEG =
 * Blank and Braun 7-29-14** is a senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington and visiting professor in the department of government at Harvard University (Stephen* and Aurel**, “BLANK & BRAUN: Russia’s dangerous Arctic adventurism,” Washington Times, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/jul/29/blank-braun-russias-dangerous-arctic-adventurism/#ixzz39GbcEmDE)BC

Past 2nr's
Round 1 1ac - AUV's - warming and sharks 1nc - TRIA ptx, T military, DoD CP, Cap K 2nc - CP, Case 1nr - ptx 2nr - ptx, cp, solvency