Mary+Bryce+Brannen+and+Grace+Kuang

1NCs

2NRs

Aff Cites:

**1AC v5 AIIB**

**Contention 1**


 * Contention 1 is China Rise**

**Wyne, 15** --- contributing analyst at Wikistrat, and a global fellow with the Project for the Study of the 21st Century (4/7/15, Ali, “The American World Order and China’s New Bank,” [], article downloaded on 5/3/16, JMP) The United States has sensibly declared its intention to rebalance towards **the Asia-Pacific** AND **writ large**—than, respectively, excluding China and shunning its efforts.
 * China’s rise is inevitable --- U.S. failure to** **seek membership** **in the AIIB sends the signal that it doesn’t want to integrate China into global economic governance and crushes America’s ability to shape the global order**

**Wyne, 15** --- contributing analyst at Wikistrat and a global fellow at the Project for the Study of the 21st Century (6/1/15, Ali, “Is America’s Mind-set the Greatest Threat to Its Future?” [], article downloaded 5/3/16, JMP) *Joseph Nye is a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School and one of the most esteemed analysts of world affairs world order.” **Here’s to hoping that the**U** nited **S** tates heeds that judgment. **
 * Failure to recalibrate U.S.** **economic policy** **toward China risks miscalculation that triggers great power conflict**
 * Nye suggests that the greatest threat to U.S. influence may not be **
 * AND **

Lack of engagement on AIIB has wrecked U.S. leadership – ensuring peaceful rise is necessary to prevent World War 3 Lehmann, 15 **--- Emeritus Professor at IMD, Lausanne (Switzerland), currently Visiting Professor at Hong Kong University and at NIIT University in Neemrana, Rajasthan (India) (4/2/15, Jean-Pierre Lehmann, “China And The US: The AIIB Fiasco &amp; America's Colossal Loss Of Face,” http://www.forbes.com/sites/jplehmann/2015/04/02/china-and-the-us-the-aiib-fiasco-americas-colossal-loss-of-face/print/, article downloaded 6/14/16, JMP)**
 * It is very worrying for the world that American policy makers should be capable of**
 * AND**
 * us hope the appropriate lessons are learned. Pax Americana is still needed. **

Engaging on the AIIB is critical --- it’s the focal point for China’s expanded international role and broader US cooperation - spills over to cybersecurity and the South China Sea Noori, et. al, 15 **--- Program Specialist, Middle East & North Africa Programs at United States Institute of Peace (8/24/15, Maral Noori, Daniel Jasper and Jason Tower, “Overcoming Barriers to U.S.-China Cooperation,” [], downloaded on 4/21/16, JMP)** . cooperation. Development lending could prove a minimally politically sensitive testing ground.
 * In 2011, U.S. president Barack Obama announced plans to "pivot**
 * AND**

South China Sea conflict goes nuclear. Christensen **6/5/**15 **– Thomas J., Boswell professor of world politics and director of the China and the World Program at Princeton University, is a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, “China's Rising Military: Now for the Hard Part” http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-06-05/china-s-rising-military-now-for-the-hard-part**
 * One reason for this is that no consensus exists in East Asia on the territorial **
 * AND **
 * conditions in which a technologically superior foe attacks crucial targets with conventional weapons. **

Independently, China will be forced to turn toaggressive militaryactions if the U.S. doesn’t support its growing role in the global economy via the AIIB Lipscy, 15 **--- Assistant Professor of Political Science and the Thomas Rohlen Center Fellow, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University (5/7/15, Phillip Y., “Who's Afraid of the AIIB; Why the United States Should Support China's Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank,” [], downloaded 4/23/16, JMP)**
 * When China first proposed creating the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) in 2013**
 * AND**
 * encourage, not discourage, Chinese foreign policy initiatives such as the AIIB. **

Washington’s position on the AIIB makes the US look hypocritical and misguided --- joining solves this
 * Amitai** Etzioni 16 **--- Professor of International Affairs at George Wash**i**ngton University(Amitai; “The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank: A Case Study of Multifaceted Containment; Asian Perspective; https://icps.gwu.edu/sites/icps.gwu.edu/files/downloads/Etzioni_AIIB.pdf)//pk//**
 * //Although some analysts have emphasized the importance of China’s becoming a “responsible stakeholder” //**
 * //AND//**
 * // seems in effect to rule out any participation in international enterprises and institutions. //**

//Contention 2//

//Contention 2 is Warming//

//**Without a change to its procedures the AIIB will fuel mega infrastructure projects and a massive expansion of coal use**// //Bankwatch 15 **[CEE Bankwatch Network, international non-governmental organisation with member organisations from countries across central and eastern Europe that monitors activities of IFIs to promote sustainable projects, “New Beijing-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank struggles to convince on environment and sustainability issues”, 12/17/15, []] MG**// //**The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the China-led financial institution,**// //**AND**// //see a return to the darkest, unregulated days of international development finance.//

//Infrastructure development in Asia key to global climate change --- ensuring strong AIIB standards is critical// //Nassiry and Nakhooda, 16 **[Darius, head of international cooperation department at Global Green Growth Institute, Director at Millennium Challenge Corporation where he led teams for development of investment programs in Asia, Smita, Climate finance fellow at World Resources Institute, “The AIIB and investment in action on climate change”, Working Paper 433, April 2016, []] MG**// //**The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (**the AIIB **or the Bank)** is poised to// //AND// //**to achieve its stated aim to be “lean, clean and green”.**//

//Warming is anthropogenic and causes extinction// //Adams 16 ** --- has a degree in agriculture and cites studies done by NASA and the IPCC**//

//**(Andrew, Prince George Citizen, 4/16/16, “There is no debating scientific facts,” http://www.princegeorgecitizen.com/opinion/columnists/there-is-no-debating-scientific-facts-1.2229437)**//**ernst**
 * Last week I wrote about the signs of early spring and put a few jabs**
 * AND**
 * watching conspiracy theories?" P.s. The Earth is not flat.**

Change now is key, lest we want extinction Klein 2014 **- Puffin Foundation Writing Fellow at The Nation Institute and a former Miliband Fellow at the London School of Economics**


 * Naomi, //This Changes Everything,// p 16-21**
 * The assertion that we have been held back by a lack of technological solutions is**
 * AND**
 * climate crisis: we either change now or we lose our chance.29**

Plan

Plan: The United States federal government should substantially increase its diplomatic and economic engagement with the People’s Republic of China over the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank with the purpose of joining the bank.

Contention 3

Contention 3 is Solvency

U.S. should engage China to join the AIIB --- allows it to exert net more influence Knight, 15 **--- Faculty Director of the SIS Honors Program and Assistant Professor at American University's School of International Service and expert on international political economy (4/3/15, Sarah Cleeland Knight, “The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank – Three Questions for Sarah Cleeland Knight,” [], article downloaded 5/11/16, JMP)**
 * A growing number of countries are joining the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank**
 * AND **
 * best, working quietly with China, to ensure that it actually does .**

US engagement with the AIIB is key to enforce compliance with international environmental standards and prevent China’s development model from wrecking global democracy Fukuyama 16(Francis, Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), January 12, 2016, Exporting the Chinese Model, Project Syndicate, **[|http://www.bresserpereira.org.br/terceiros/2016/janeiro/16.01-Exporting-Chinese-Model.pdf //]** PD) and other important parts of the world to China and its development model**. **
 * As 2016 begins, an historic contest is underway over competing development models – that **
 * AND**

U.S. involvement will allow AIIB tosafeguard its independencefrom China, develophigher standardsandtransparency, reverse perception of containment and boost the credibility of its Asia rebalance Lazarus, 3/2/16 **--- MA candidate at The Fletcher School, Tufts University (Leland, “Why the U.S. Should Embrace the AIIB; There are compelling reasons for the U.S. to join China’s new development bank,” [], article downloaded 4/24/16, JMP)** improve the AIIB as a member, instead of opposing the bank altogether.**
 * China’s new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has been the source of considerable **
 * AND **

**1AC V1 Taiwan Arms Sales**

**Contention 1**


 * Contention One is Relations**

**Glaser 2016** (Bonnie, Senior Adviser for Asia and Director, China Power Project AND the term “cross-Strait ” instead of China-Taiwan.11
 * Taiwan Strait tensions on the brink – greater reassurances are necessary to preserve cross-strait relations**
 * The PRC is unsatisfied with Tsai’s promises of sticking to the status quo on ambiguous relations

**Guerrero 7/1**, (Kay, 7/1/16, Taiwan accidentally launches missile toward China, kills fishing boat captain, CNN, http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/01/asia/taiwan-fires-missile-on-china/index.html)//kap (CNN) A Taiwan warship mistakenly launched a supersonic "aircraft carrier killer" AND , whose party has traditionally leaned in favor of formal independence from China.
 * The recent accidental launch only adds fuel to the fire in tense China-Taiwan relations**

**Littlefield and Lowther 15**, Alex Littlefield is Senior Editor at Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, Adam Lowther is a Research Professor at the Air Force Research Institute (AFRI) at Maxwell Air Force Base, (8/11/15, Taiwan and the Prospects for War Between China and America, The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/taiwan-and-the-prospects-for-war-between-china-and-america/)//kap For the United States and its allies and partners in Asia, China’s aggressive efforts AND unprepared for a situation that escalates beyond its ability to prevent a catastrophe.
 * US-China nuclear war over Taiwan likely now – mutually assured destruction isn’t factored into PRC strategy**

Taiwan is the **most likely** potential crisis that could trigger a nuclear war between China AND arsenals, such a conflict would be tremendously dangerous and quite possibly devastating. ”
 * Miscalculation in the strait is the** **most probable** **cause of nuclear war – strategic mistrust makes escalation likely**
 * Lowther, 13** – citing a CSIS report (William, Tapei Times, 3/16, “Taiwan could spark nuclear war: report,” [])

But what would that “victory” entail? An attack with these Chinese nuclear AND — destroying agriculture, creating worldwide famine, and generating chaos and destruction.
 * China attack causes extinction – nuclear winter**
 * Wittner, 12** - Professor of History emeritus, SUNY Albany (Lawrence, “Is a Nuclear War With China Possible?” Huffington Post, 1/30, []


 * The aff solves -**

**Lowther 15** - William, staff writer, Beijing ‘too passive’ over Taiwan: Chinese analysts, ([]) JB Swaine is described by Carnegie as “one of the most prominent American analysts in AND **adverse outcomes**, including a resort to nuclear weapons, **could be avoided**.
 * 1) **a) Prevents miscalc - a reduction in arms sales allows adverse impacts to be avoided**

**Swaine 03-** Michael, expert in China and East Asian security studies and a Senior Associate in the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, China, Reverse Course? The Fragile Turnaround in U.S.–China Relations, ([]) JB The Bush administration and Congress must recognize that, despite the current improvement in relations **AND** relations. This **potential opening should be fully explored** by the Bush administration.
 * 1) **b)Lowers the possibility of conflict - reducing arms sales to Taiwan facilitates dialogue between China, Taiwan, and the US**

**An 13 -** Xiao, 1/17/23 This article was first published in Chinese and translated by Chen Boyuan, US' arms sales to Taiwan impede Sino-US relationship, http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2013-01/17/content_27716480.htm, msm U.S. arms sales to Taiwan not only **directly harm China’s essential interest** AND **can the China-US relationship develop in a stable and smooth manner**.
 * Independently, arms sales ensure regional instability, makes conflict inevitable, and destroys regional stability**

Taiwan and China have the most unique bilateral relationship in the world. The two AND **conflict between the two sides threatens to spillback, negatively effecting economic relations.**
 * Economic and cultural ties can’t check – poor political relations outweigh**
 * Wen-cheng ‘5**
 * (Lin Wen-cheng, Dean of Social Sciences at National Sun Yat-sen University and Executive Director of the Institute for National Policy Research in Taiwan, December 2005, “Cross-strait Confidence Building Measures,” p. 1, JH)**

**Contention 2**


 * Contention 2 is Sanctions**

**Harrell 16** - Peter, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security and former deputy assistant secretary of state for counter-threat finance and sanctions, China threatens sanctions against U.S. companies: Is this the future?, ([]) JB China’s recent threat to impose sanctions on U.S. defense companies that sell AND business in China, according to data compiled last year by Factset Research.
 * Recent Chinese threats danger the US – they will retaliate to future U.S. arms sales with sanctions**

However the continuous sales to Taiwan by the US have been much to the chagrin AND wants to become the world’s third-largest aircraft manufacturer by 2015.
 * Future U.S arms sales are inevitable and result in Chinese sanctions against Boeing – Sanctions collapse Boeing’s civilian sector and take down the whole company – even if China doesn’t** **//SANCTION//** **Boeing, they’ll shift business which still triggers the impact**
 * Chesson 11**
 * (Roy David, currently a Foreign Area Officer in the US Navy. BS in Physics from the University of Wisconsin, and MA degree in Security Studies (East Asian) from the Naval Post Graduate School and an MA degree in Engineering Management from Old Dominion University, “How China could Affect the Future of US Defense Corporations,” pg online @ https://web.stanford.edu/group/sjeaa/journal111/China3.pdf //um-ef)**

The current wave of defense cuts is also different than past defense budget reductions in AND civilian and military export opportunities for the U nited S tates in a globalized marketplace.
 * Domestic manufacturing capabilities key to U.S. deterrence – prevents conflict**
 * O’Hanlon et al 2k12**
 * (Mackenzie Eaglen, American Enterprise Institute Rebecca Grant, IRIS Research Robert P. Haffa, Haffa Defense Consulting Michael O'Hanlon, The Brookings Institution Peter W. Singer, The Brookings Institution Martin Sullivan, Commonwealth Consulting Barry Watts, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments “The Arsenal of Democracy and How to Preserve It: Key Issues in Defense Industrial Policy January 2012,” pg online @** [|**http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2012/1/26%20defense%20industrial%20base/0126_defense_industrial_base_ohanlon**] **//um-ef)**

**Garver 2016** (John, is Emertius Professor in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology. He specializes in China’s foreign relations. He served for many years on a the editorial boards of the journals China Quarterly, Journal of Contemporary China, Issues and Studies, and Asian Security. He is a member of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, has testified before the U.S. Congress, and is the author of twelve books and seventy–five refereed articles and book chapters dealing with China 's foreign relations, “China’s Quest: the History of the Foreign Relations of the People’s Republic of China,” Chapter 28, “China’s Quest for Modernity and the Tides of World History,” Oxford University Press, 2016, silbs) Analysts differ about the extent to which autonomous (non-state-directed) AND ensured. Thus, the Politburo must pay close heed to PLA views.
 * Independently, nationalism controls the CCP’s response to foreign actions — the public will not tolerate signs of weakness and will respond violently to attacks on their national identity**

Regional Security There are a number of areas of concern among China’s immediate regional neighbors AND investment (FDI) into developing countries, primarily on the African continent.
 * That triggers multiple scenarios for nuclear conflict**
 * Perkinson 12**
 * (Jessica, MA International Affairs, American University, frmr Program Coordinator Center for Asian Studies, American University, “The Potential for Instability in the PRC: How the Doomsday Theory Misses the Mark,” pg online @ http://aladinrc.wrlc.org/bitstream/handle/1961/10330/Perkinson_american_0008N_10238display.pdf?sequence=1 //um-ef)**

**Mount 2015** - Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relation
 * Korean War goes nuclear - kills millions, involves massive amounts of fallout, and risks escalation**

Adam, The Strategic Logic of Nuclear Restraint, Survival: Global Politics and Strategy Volume 57, Issue 4, 2015, p. 53-76 As things stand today, the most plausible scenario for US nuclear use is in AND neighbouring countries. An invasion of North Korea would be all but impossible.

**Christensen** 6/5/ **15** – Thomas J., Boswell professor of world politics and director of the China and the World Program at Princeton University, is a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, “China's Rising Military: Now for the Hard Part” http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-06-05/china-s-rising-military-now-for-the-hard-part One reason for this is that no consensus exists in East Asia on the territorial AND conditions in which a technologically superior foe attacks crucial targets with conventional weapons.
 * Asian instability goes nuclear**

**Tønnesson 15** - Stein Tønnesson 15, Research Professor, Peace Research Institute Oslo; Leader of East Asia Peace program, Uppsala University, 2015, “Deterrence, interdependence and Sino–US peace,” International Area Studies Review, Vol. 18, No. 3, p. 297-311 Several recent works on China and Sino–US relations have made substantial contributions to AND each other, with a view to obliging Washington or Beijing to intervene.
 * Indian economic decline causes global nuclear war**

**Plan**


 * The United States federal government should offer to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) a staged agreement consisting of restrictions on United States arms sales in return for verifiable limit on PRC military production and deployment relevant to the Republic of China (ROC) and a promise that the PRC will not use force against the ROC.**

**Contention 3**


 * Contention 3 is Solvency**

**Swaine 11** - Michael, expert in China and East Asian security studies and a Senior Associate in the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, America's Challenge: Engaging a Rising China in the Twenty-First Century, ( Washington: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) JB Regarding Washington's political and security relations with Taiwan, as indicated in chapter 2 despite AND Washington or Beijing to give up its military deployments in other areas .32
 * US CBMs with China and Taiwan over US arms sales and PLA military deployments would lead to greater stability in the region by getting rid of the ineffective status quo policies and increasing trust among nations which leads to effective and long-lasting cross-strait dialogue**

**Swaine 11** - Michael, expert in China and East Asian security studies and a AND **, including any resort to nuclear weapons, would almost certainly be avoided**.
 * The plan solves for all possible alt causes to effective cross-strait relations and confidence building measures**
 * This card is also very good at answering the politics DA, Alliance DA, and Taiwan DA
 * This card also draws a distinction between reducing arms sales to the necessary materials needed for self-defense and getting rid of all arms sales

Third is **the possibility of a cross-Strait peace accord**. Washington and Taipei AND **are linked to the opening of a cross-Strait political dialogue**. 65
 * Taiwan will say yes and QPQ solves**
 * Bush 13 - (Richard, Ph.D. (1978), M.Phil. (1975), M.A. (1973), Columbia University, Dir for Center for East Asian Studies @ Brookings, Uncharted Strait: The Future of China-Taiwan Relations, pg 237-9//um-ef)**