Jake+Nolan+&+Cale+Zepernick

__**Affirmative:**__ __**1. North Korean Sanctions**__ __**Plan**__
 * The United States Federal Government should negotiate an agreement with the People’s Republic of China to not deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system in Northeast Asia if the People’s Republic of China agrees to fully enforce United Nations sanctions against the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. **

**__ Advantage 1- Nuclearization __**

McLennon, Garth. (Hudson Institute, his writing focuses primarily on American foreign policy) "Needle in a Haystack: How North Korea Could Fight a Nuclear War | 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea." 38 North Informed Analysis of North Korea RSS. Sponsored by The U.S.-Korea Institute at SAIS, The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, 13 June 2016. Web. 09 July 2016. . __Since____its__ January 6 __test____of__ what was claimed to be __a hydrogen bomb__ and AND __ through scenario-based analysis that is fully cognizant of the above factors ____.__
 * North Korea is developing warheads and delivery systems that destabilize the region escalate every conflict and risk nuclear miscalculation. Allowing development to continue ensures nuclear war. **
 * McLennon 6/13 **

Peter ** Hayes, & ** Michael Hamel-** Green, 2009 ** (Honorary Professor, Center for International Security Studies & professor in social sciences in the College of Arts at Victoria University Melbourne) The Path Not Taken, The Way Still Open: Denuclearizing The Korean Peninsula And Northeast Asia, Dec. 14, 2009. Retrieved Apr. 24, 2016 from http://apjjf.org/-Peter-Hayes/3267/article.html __The consequences of failing to address the proliferation threat posed by__ the __North Korea__ developments AND __threat but a global one__ that warrants priority consideration from the international community.
 * North Korean proliferation risks a Korean war which threatens the entire planet **

In addition to the nuclear program, other __weapons of mass destruction have been under__ __AND__ of the regime will overseas contacts as a source of funding and leverage.
 * North Korean nuclearization means sale of nuclear material on the global arms market – risks terrorist usage of a dirty bomb **
 * Maxwell 11 Col. David S. Maxwell, USA, is Chief, Strategic Initiatives Group, US Army Special Operatoins Command; a fellow at the Insititute of Korean-American Studies; sits on the board of advisors for //Small Wars Journal//, and is a member of the faulty at the National War College (Maxwell, David S. “Irregular Warfare on the Korean Peninsula.” **Confronting Security Challenges on the Korean Peninsula. Marine University Press; 2011. Print.) DD


 * Nuclear terror leads to extinction **
 * Myhrvold 14 ** - chief executive and founder of Intellectual Ventures and a former chief technology officer at Microsoft

Nathan P, Strategic Terrorism: A Call to Action, cco.dodlive.mil/files/2014/04/Strategic_Terrorism_corrected_II.pdf Technology contains no inherent moral directive—it empowers people, whatever their intent, AND , and bombings in major cities. Strategic objectives cannot be far behind.

Mitchel B. ** Wallerstein, ** 12/18/20** 15 **(deputy U.S. assistant secretary of defense for counterproliferation policy from 1993 to 1997 and the current President of Baruch College), WASHINGTON POST, Ignoring North Korea’s nuclear threat could prove to be a dangerous mistake, Dec. 18, 2015. from https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-price-of-inattention-to-north-korea/2015/12/18/a3eb5308-9d3b-11e5-8728-1af6af208198_story.html?tid=a_inl It is too easy to dismiss as bluster the near-constant stream of threats AND each weapon in the event that they needed to be secured or destroyed.
 * Nuclear development must be halted soon- delay makes it impossible to reverse **

Elizabeth ** Shim, ** 5/11/** 16 ** (Journalist focusing on global Asian cultures for United Press International), North Korea keeps importing banned components from China, analyst says UPI http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2016/05/11/North-Korea-keeps-importing-banned-components-from-China-analyst-says/3631462990916/?spt=sec&or=tn __North Korea continues to import components from China that could go toward nuclear weapons development__ AND __international sanctions__. __Trade appears to be growing despite new bans__.
 * China not fully enforcing sanctions- North Korea is still importing banned items **

Speaking earlier this year __, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that the X-__ __AND__ years, Pyongyang has shown recent signs of trying to improve bilateral ties.
 * THAAD deployment destroys Chinese support for sanctions enforcement. **
 * Panda 7/8 **/16 (Ankit Panda - editor at The Diplomat. He writes on security, politics, economics, and culture. – “It's Official: The United States and South Korea Agree to Deploy THAAD” – 7/8/16 - http://thediplomat.com/2016/07/its-official-the-united-states-and-south-korea-agree-to-deploy-thaad/)/TK

Julian ** Ryall, ** 4-13-20** 16 **, "Is North Korea finally close to collapse?," Deutsche Welle, http://www.dw.com/en/is-north-korea-finally-close-to-collapse/a-19183141 __If international sanctions are to work, much will depend on China, which has__ __AND__ member of the International Coalition to Stop Crimes Against Humanity in North Korea.
 * China is key to the success or failure of sanctions **

[Scott A Snyder, April 2016, National Committee On American Foreign Policy, A U.S.-ROK-China dialogue on North Korea’s Nuclear Stalemate: Update, Review, and Assessment, [], July 10 2016, KC] __Experts believe North Korea now has 10 to 20 nuclear weapons and Pyongyang has mastered __ __AND __ threaten, intimidate, or blackmail its neighbors and adversaries in a crisis.
 * Effective sanctions block North Korean nuclear and missile development programs. **
 * Snyder, 2016 ** Senior Fellow at Korea Studies

**__Advantage 2- South korea- Sino Relations__**

__China’s ambassador to South Korea__ recently __warned__ the opposition Minjoo Party of __Korea__ (MPK AND __will have a direct impact on China’s national security interests,” Hua added.__
 * THAAD deployment will destroy China-South Korea relations **
 * Tiezzi ** 2/25/** 16 **(Shannon Tiezzi - Editor at The Diplomat. Her main focus is on China, and she writes on China’s foreign relations, domestic politics, and economy. Shannon previously served as a research associate at the U.S.-China Policy Foundation, where she hosted the weekly television show China Forum. She received her A.M. from Harvard University and her B.A. from The College of William and Mary. Shannon has also studied at Tsinghua University in Beijing – “China Warns THAAD Deployment Could Destroy South Korea Ties 'in an Instant'” – 2/25/16 - http://thediplomat.com/2016/02/china-warns-thaad-deployment-could-destroy-south-korea-ties-in-an-instant/)/TK

__"China-South Korea relations are facing__ an opportunity of __great development__ . To AND __, but also **a stabilizer to regional and world peace**__ ," Xi said.
 * China-South Korea Relations key to South Korean trade exports and promoting economic stability **
 * BBC 14 ( **BBC Worldwide Monitoring – “Chinese president hopes to inject vitality into ties with South Korea” – 7/4/14 - http://www.lexisnexis.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/hottopics/lnacademic/)/TK

__NEW trade figures from South Korea__ on September 1st __surprised__ even the gloomiest of __economic__ __AND__ __components, which make up the bulk of South Korea’s exports to China.__
 * Exports, especially to China, are key to the South Korean economy **
 * The Economist 15 (The Economist - an English-language weekly newspaper owned by the Economist Group and edited in offices based in London – “Why a big slump in South Korea’s exports matters” – 9/1/15 - http://www.economist.com/news/business-and-finance/21662952-steepest-year-drop-trade-2009-mark-sagging-global-demand-why-big-slump)/TK **

__Korea’s approach to climate change falls under a broader set of policies known as “__ __AND__
 * As long as South Korea’s economy remains strong, it is key to solving climate change - has the stance to lead the world by promoting green growth **
 * O’Donnell 15 ** (Jill Kosch O’Donnell – an independent writer with a special interest in energy policy. She holds an M.A. in International Relations and Economics from the Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies – “How Korea Can Lead on Climate Change” – 11/24/15 - http://blogs.cfr.org/asia/2015/11/24/how-korea-can-lead-on-climate-change/)/TK
 * __there,__** __and will continue to be long after the diplomats leave Paris.__

__South Korea formally proposed that it will cut its emissions to 37 percent below business__ __AND__ __. Each of **these steps earned them praise as a global climate leader.**__
 * South Korea is prepared and wants to lead the process **
 * Schmidt 15 ** (Jake Schmidt - directs National Resources Defense Council’s International program with a team of experts and partners working on climate change, clean energy, biogems, and sustainable development in India, Latin America, Canada, and at the international level. Schmidt holds a bachelor's degree in economics from Muhlenberg College and a M.P.P. in environmental policy, with a certificate in ecological economics from the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland – “South Korea Announces Climate Target in Advance of Paris Climate Agreement” – 6/30/15 - https://www.nrdc.org/experts/jake-schmidt/south-korea-announces-climate-target-advance-paris-climate-agreement)/TK

__The Earth is warming so rapidly that unless humans can arrest the trend, **we**__ __for key sowing stages near or below 35 degrees____, the report said. __
 * Anthropogenic warming causes extinction – IPCC and scientist consensus **
 * Hannam and Snow 14 **(Peter Hannam - Environment Editor at The Sydney Morning Herald. He covers broad environmental issues ranging from climate change to renewable energy for Fairfax Media. Deborah Snow - senior writer with The Sydney Morning Herald and a former federal political reporter for the Australian Financial Review – *Article cites IPCC report* – “Climate change could make humans extinct, warns health expert” – 3/31/14 - http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-change-could-make-humans-extinct-warns-health-expert-20140330-35rus.html)/TK
 * __AND__**

**__ Advantage 3 US-China Relations __**

__CNN 7/13/__16 “Has South China Sea ruling set scene for next global conflict?” http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/13/asia/south-china-sea-global-conflict-risks/index.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+cnn%2FCVMu+(CNN+Top+Stories) Risk of miscalculation Ashley Townshend, research fellow at the U.S. Studies AND __the verdict and demonstrate that it had no intention of changing its position__.
 * Recent SCS ruling puts US-China miscalc on the brink, failure to de-escalate tensions result in US china war **

[Kim Gamel, July 10, 2016, Korean Penninsula Tensions Raise Stakes for Regional Security, Stars and Stripes, [], July 11, 2016 KC] SEOUL, South Korea — __Already-high tensions spiked on the Korean Peninsula__ as AND __China, Russia and North Korea are likely to be strengthened.”__
 * THAAD kills relations- prevents diplomatic resolution of SCS disputes. **
 * Gamel, 2016 a Senior Correspondent for Stars and Stripes**

Polina __Tikhonova 2015__ (is a writer, journalist and a certified translator Master's Degree in English Philology from the University of Oxford and a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism from the Saint Petersburg State University) [] “US Faces Nuclear War Threat Over South China Sea – Chinese Professor” __China is willing to start a__ [|nuclear war] __with the United States over the South__ __AND__ __reputation or human lives__, for the U.S.,” Baohui wrote.
 * Conflict in SCS goes nuclear **

__**2. Arctic (wave 2)**__

=1AC Arctic=

**__ Plan __**


 * The United States federal government should offer to fully support and pursue full member status in the Arctic Council for China if China agrees to participate in bilateral cooperative agreements regarding Arctic scientific research and environmental policy issues. **

**__ Warming __**

On Sunday and Monday, __foreign ministers and other international leaders met__ in Anchorage, AND Paris summit, and __for U.**S.-China cooperation in general**.__
 * China won’t back Arctic warming initiatives, __decking__ US-China warming cooperation and unraveling the entire partnership – supporting __Beijing’s Arctic status__ is key **
 * Tiezzi, 15 **—Shannon, Editor at The Diplomat, previously served as a research associate at the U.S.-China Policy Foundation, MA @ Harvard, also studied at Tsinghua University in Beijing. “Why Did China Opt Out of the Arctic Climate Change Statement?” The Diplomat, Sept 1, [] --br

The simple answer is that __these are two frightfully well-armed nuclear powers,__ __AND__ __two largest greenhouse gas emitters working together, I truly fear the worst.__
 * US-China warming cooperation is try or die for human extinction and global instability **
 * Kuo, 7-10 **—Mercy Kuo interviewing Kaiser Kuo – founder of Sinica Podcast, director of international communications @ Baidu (Chinese Google) and columnist at The Beijinger. Part of a series where M. Kuo engages with subject-matter experts, policy practitioners and strategic thinkers across the globe for their diverse insights into the U.S. rebalance to Asia. “New Potus Brief: Getting US-China Relations Right,” The Diplomat, -us-china-relations-right/ --br


 * Two internal links… **


 * __ **A – Arctic** __**

__The Arctic is thawing even **faster than lawmakers can formulate new rules** to prevent the__ __AND__ damage caused by physical hazards encountered in the Arctic, and navigating restrictions."
 * __ Try or die __**** – the Arctic will be __ice free__ by 2100, driving __2/3 of all global trade__ through the Arctic without regulation **
 * Saul and Chestney, 16 **—Jonathan and Nina, Reuters reporters citing Whit Sheard of the Circumpolar Conservation Union, Julie Gourley, senior Arctic official at the U.S. State Department and multiple studies. “Arctic thaw opens shipping waterways, risks to environment,” Feb 25, [] --br

Five key __areas of cooperation can enhance Arctic cooperation between the U.S.__ __AND__ __the linkages of the polar regions to global change is another **fruitful course** ahead__
 * __ Arctic cooperation __**** is __vital__ – it’s the __epicenter__ of __glacier research__ and __shipping__ emission regulation **
 * Slayton and Brigham, 15 **—David Slayton is research fellow, co-chair and executive director of the Arctic Security Initiative at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. Lawson W. Brigham is distinguished professor of geography and Arctic policy at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, a fellow at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy’s Center for Arctic Study & Policy, and a member of Hoover’s Arctic Security Initiative. “Strengthen Arctic cooperation between the US and China,” Aug 27, Alaska Dispatch News (ADN), [] --br


 * __ **B – US-China Cooperation** __**

__The Supreme Court’s surprise decision__ Tuesday __to halt__ the carrying out of President __Obama’s climate__ __AND__ __States has long been the **chief obstacle** to meaningful global climate change agreements.__
 * Cooperation is on the __brink__ – China’s carefully assessing US __signals of commitment__ **
 * Davenport, 16 **—Coral, covers energy and climate change policy at The New York Times, previously a fellow with the Metcalf Institute for Marine and Environmental Reporting and covered energy and the environment for National Journal, Politico, and Congressional Quarterly. “Supreme Court’s Blow to Emissions Efforts May Imperil Paris Climate Accord,” New York Times (NYT), Feb 10, [] --br

Fifth, __joint Arctic marine research is an arena with much promise. Joint oceanographic__ __AND__ __within their already existing dialogue and in international organizations including the Arctic Council.__
 * The plan revives US-China cooperation by spurring __highly-visible__, __lasting__ changes **
 * Slayton and Brigham, 15 **—David Slayton is research fellow, co-chair and executive director of the Arctic Security Initiative at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. Lawson W. Brigham is distinguished professor of geography and Arctic policy at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, a fellow at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy’s Center for Arctic Study & Policy, and a member of Hoover’s Arctic Security Initiative. “Strengthen Arctic cooperation between the US and China,” Aug 27, Alaska Dispatch News (ADN), [] --br

The Paris Summit in December 2015 is being seen as the “last chance” AND government retreats from efforts to curb emissions in favor of stabilizing economic growth.
 * __ US-China cooperation __**** is key – they’re the __two largest emitters__ and __drive multilateral action__ **
 * Hongzhou, 15 **—Zhang, Associate Research Fellow with the China Programme @ S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) at Nanyang Technological University (Singapore). “China-US Climate Change Cooperation: Beyond Energy,” The Diplomat, Oct 13, [] --br

__The China-U.S. relationship is a daily and recurring, sometimes__ __AND__ __, World Meteorological Organization, and International Hydrographic Organization, among other institutions.__
 * __ Acting now __**** is key to reviving US-China Arctic cooperation – it’s __try or die__ **
 * Slayton and Brigham, 15 **—David Slayton is research fellow, co-chair and executive director of the Arctic Security Initiative at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. Lawson W. Brigham is distinguished professor of geography and Arctic policy at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, a fellow at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy’s Center for Arctic Study & Policy, and a member of Hoover’s Arctic Security Initiative. “Strengthen Arctic cooperation between the US and China,” Aug 27, Alaska Dispatch News (ADN), [] --br

(Xiaoyu, “China-US Cooperation: Key to the Global Future,” China Institute of International Studies, http://www.ciis.org.cn/english/2014-01/13/content_6606656.htm) • Cooperation on climate change mitigation, adaptation, and consequence management. __China-__ __AND__ US businesses as well as __**lower costs and widely disseminate** clean energy **technologies**__.
 * US-China climate cooperation facilitates __mitigation and adaptation__ strategies globally – solves extinction **
 * Li 14 ** – MA in Global Studies @ U Denver, Int’l Affairs Coordinator @ UN

__CLIMATE change **puts humanity at risk**__. The Pope’s celebrated encyclical letter on the subject AND be very effective in overcoming the current inertia that climate negotiations suffer from.
 * __ Expert consensus __**** that warming is __real__ and __existential__ – melting glaciers ignite a __cascade__ that __exceeds cost-benefit analysis__ **
 * Treich and Rheinberger, 15 **—Christoph Rheinberger (Professor of Health Policy and Management @ Harvard) and Nicolas Treich (Professor at the Toulouse School of Economics). Citing Weitzman (economist @ Harvard) and Bostrom (prof @ Oxford). “On the economics of the end of the world as we know it,” The Economist, [] -- br

**__ Multilateralism __**

__AND__ does not play a constructive role in multilateral institutions, including the EU.
 * __ Brexit __**** was just the “tip of the iceberg” – __multilateralism is collapsing__, but __demonstrated political will__ can revive it **
 * Wurf, 16 **—Hannah, Research Associate working in the G20 Studies Centre at the Lowy Institute. Her research interests are global governance and multilateralism, June 9, Online: “http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2016/06/09/What-the-UK-needs-now-is-more-multilateralism-not-less.aspx”, Article: “What the UK needs now is more multilateralism, not less” Accessed on: 06-24-16//AWW
 * __Britain leaving the EU could signal a new shift away from multilateralism__** __as leaders around__

More importantly, __the international community is facing__ bigger and __unpredicted challenges__ and serious irrational AND there are challenges, which go beyond state sovereignty and nationalistic security thinking.
 * Arctic environmental cooperation spills over to __boost multilateral cooperation globally__, but it’s __on the brink__ – our impact is __reverse causal__ – cooperation creates a paradigmatic governance shift that __halts warfare__ and several other __immediate existential risks__ **
 * Heinenen, 16 **—Lassi, Professor of Arctic Politics @ University of Lapland, Finland. author of more than 200 scientific publications and is the editor of //The Arctic Yearbook//. “High Arctic Stability as an Asset for Storms of International Politics,” __Future Security of the Global Arctic: State Policy, Economic Security and Climate__, Palgrave Macmillan, p. 4-8 [] --br

__The Arctic will continue to be__ a __strategically important__ region into the future as nations AND __opportunity to reinforce strong maritime governance in the Arctic for their mutual benefit__.
 * The plan’s __signal__ drives cooperation – the US has a __narrow window__ as Arctic Council leaders to __lock in cooperation__ – it __spills over__ to solve __South China Sea__ conflict **
 * Dwyer, 15 **— Commander William G. Dwyer III, United States Coast Guard, “China’s Strategic Interests in the Arctic,” NDU Press 3rd Place Paper, United States Army War College, Joint Force Quarterly, NDU Press, [], p. 18-20

__China and America share a common interest__ of freedom of navigation __in the Arctic__. AND __current state of liberalism fostered through the Arctic Council to a realist view.__
 * Pursuing Chinese full member status in exchange for environmental cooperation locks in __multilateral peace__ – that’s key to defuse inevitable __proxy conflicts__ that __wreck stability__ **
 * Dwyer, 15 **— Commander William G. Dwyer III, United States Coast Guard, “China’s Strategic Interests in the Arctic,” NDU Press 3rd Place Paper, United States Army War College, Joint Force Quarterly, NDU Press, [], p. 15-17

Graeme P. ** Herd 10 **, Head of the International Security Programme, Co-Director of the International Training Course in Security Policy, Geneva Centre for Security Policy, 2010, “Great Powers: Towards a “cooperative competitive” future world order paradigm?,” in Great Powers and Strategic Stability in the 21st Century, p. 197-198 __Given the absence of immediate hegemonic challengers to the US__ (or a global strategic AND contributed to the crisis; all will be involved in the solution.24
 * Independently, successful management of __proxy conflicts__ through __regional multilateral institutions__ prevents __existential threats__ **

Because it rests on open, nondiscriminatory debate, and the routine exchange of viewpoints AND that further strengthen the impetus for multilateral dialog. Pg. 21-23
 * __ Institutionalized cooperative norms __**** check __conflict escalation__ and __it’s reverse causal__ **
 * Pouliot 11 **—Professor of Poli Sci @ McGill University [Vincent Pouliot, “Multilateralism as an End in Itself,” __International Studies Perspectives__ (2011) 12, 18–26]

__**Negative:**__

__**Japan DA**__ __**Russian Alliance DA**__ __**Russia DA**__ __**Neolib K**__