Eli+and+Maureen


 * South Korea 1AC**


 * Plan Text: The United States federal government should implement a phased withdrawal of its ground troops in South Korea.**


 * Advantage 1 - Korean Conflict.**


 * The sinking of the South Korea’s ship makes conflict inevitable – retaliation will spark an escalatory war and failure to respond will only cause more North Korean provocations.**
 * Bandow, 10** – senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to Reagan (4/18/10, Doug, “Let the Koreans Take Care of the Koreas,” [], JMP)


 * It has been weeks since... defend its own personnel.**

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 * The status quo is __fundamentally different__ than the past – the chance of a major miscalculation and global escalation is possible now in __five different ways__**
 * Sanger, 10** (5/28/10, David E. Sanger, NY Times, “In the Koreas, Five Possible Ways to War,”


 * Like a street gang showing off... North Korea found its customers.**


 * U.S. presence makes provocations inevitable and guarantees our draw in**
 * Bandow, 10** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (5/3/10, Doug, “Taming Pyongyang,” [], JMP)


 * Suspicions continued to mount... doing so in 2010 is bizarre.**


 * The U.S. response to bolster deterrence will just increase provocations and make miscalculation more likely**
 * Armstrong, 10 –** Professor of history and director of the Center for Korean Research at Columbia University.. (Charles, 5/26/10, CNN, “The Korean War never ended” [])


 * On the other hand, there is... Korean war, not start it anew.**


 * North Korea might decide that it has nothing to lose in the status quo – making more miscalculations likely**
 * Righter, 10** – Worked for the Far Eastern Economic Review and Newsweek in Asia, as development and diplomatic correspondent of The Sunday Times. (Rosemary, 5/25/10, Times Online, “It’s risky, but this time North Korea must pay” [])


 * It is the lack of obvious... reached this danger point.**


 * Also, North Korean aggression and nuclearization will cause intentional, miscalculated, or accidental nuclear conflict – even a limited nuclear war causes rapid cooling and ozone disruption, collapses the economy, and spills over to other hot spots**
 * Hayes & Hamel-Green, 10** – *Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development, AND **Executive Dean of the Faculty of Arts, Education and Human Development act Victoria University (1/5/10, Executive Dean at Victoria, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia,” [])**

The international community is increasingly... from the international community.

Conventional weaknesses will force North Korea to resort to CBW use – either deliberate, accidental or unathorized ICG, 09 **(6/18/09, International Crisis Group, “North Korea’s Chemical and Biological Weapons Programs,” [], JMP)**

This report examines North Korea's... WMD attacks or incidents.

North Korean bioweapon use would __spread globally__ within __six weeks__ – greater risk that nuclear weapons Levy, 07 **(6-8-07, Janet Ellen, The American Thinking, “The Threat of Bioweapons,” [], JMP)**


 * Intelligence analysts and academics... can be developed within days.**

Impact is extinction Ochs 02 **– MA in Natural Resource Management from Rutgers University and Naturalist at Grand Teton National Park [Richard, “BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS MUST BE ABOLISHED IMMEDIATELY,” Jun 9, http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html]**


 * Of all the weapons of mass... the highest of crimes.**

Withdrawing __ground troops__ solves – stops North Korea from probing U.S. weakness to draw our forces into a wider conflict. Air and naval installations will maintain power projection capabilities. Stanton, 10 **– U.S. Army Judge Advocate in Korea from 98-02 and practicing attorney in Washington, D.C. (4/12/10, Joshua, The New Ledger, “It's Time for the U.S. Army to Leave Korea,” [], JMP)**


 * Proceeding against the advice of... with the correct result.**

Advantage 2 is Succession Politics

A massive power struggle is underway in North Korea – warring factions will facilitate several avenues for conflict Bandow, 6/9 **– Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (6/9/10, Doug, The Daily Caller, “Confronting North Korea: Who’s in charge?”[], JMP)**


 * We see through a glass... far more than Washington's problem.**

Succession politics makes provocations __more likely and dangerous__ and crushes the chance of effective engagement to rollback North Korea’s nuclear program Bandow, 09 **– Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (7/29/09, Doug, “Kim’s Heir,”**
 * [], JMP)hb**


 * President George W. Bush famously... unsettled and dangerous future.**

Kim Jong Un needs to score some political victories to ensure a stable succession process – right now he is using military provocations to try and win support of the military Lee, 10 **(5/27/10, Jean H., writer for the Associated Press, The Associated Press, “Analysis: Attack May Be Tied to NKorean Succession”, http://www.lexisnexis.com)**


 * Young, inexperienced and virtually... make his political debut.**

Even if the succession process goes smoothly, regime collapse is still inevitable which will destabilize the region //Meyers, 10// **//– professor at Dongseo University in South Korea (3/26/10, B.R. Meyers, “ North Korea on the Edge; If the regime collapses, will the rest of the world be ready?” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704100604575145672974954144.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_RIGHTTopCarousel)//**


 * As for tensions with... the least of our worries.**

U.S. presence and continued Chinese intransigence on North Korea risks superpower conflict Emmott, 10 **– Independent writer and consultant on international affairs and former editor of The Economist (5/31/10, Bill, The Sunday Times, “China’s stance on North Korea could lead to war,” [], JMP)**


 * Try this quiz... it could really be war.**


 * Advantage 3 is Russia**


 * U.S. military concessions toward North Korea are critical to break the deadlock in the six party talks. This will provide a framework to re-establish US-Russian relations, stabilize the peninsula, and allow Russia to become a major economic player in the region.**
 * Toloraya, 08** – diplomat with the rank of Minister and Director of Korean Programs at IMEMO, the top Russian Foreign Ministry official in charge of the Korean peninsula, Doctor of Economy and a Full Professor degree in Oriental Studies (Georgy, //Asian Perspective,// “**THE SIX PARTY TALKS: A RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE”, ProQuest)**


 * The real root of the... energy and industrial products.**

**Relations key to solve accidental nuclear war** **Cohen 10**—prof, Russian Studies and History, NYU. Prof emeritus, Princeton (Stephen, US-Russian Relations in an Age of American Triumphalism: An Interview with Stephen F. Cohen, 25 May 2010, http://www.thenation.com/article/us-russian-relations-age-american-triumphalism-interview-stephen-f-cohen, AMiles)


 * Cohen: The real concern I have... can connect these dots.**

**Independently, peaceful US overtures toward Korea is critical to break the deadlock in Russian-DPRK relations and pave the way for a massive expansion of renewed economic ties on the peninsula** **Joo, 09** – Professor of Political Science at the University of Michigan (April 09, Seung-Horris, “Moscow–Pyongyang Relations under Kim Jong-il: High Hopes and Sober Reality”)


 * Trade and investment in the... in Korea and Northeast Asia.**

Institute of State Governance and the Yonsei Leadership Center (Nov/Dec, Seung Ham Yang, Woosang Kim, and Yongho Kim, “RUSSO-NORTH KOREAN RELATIONS IN THE 2000S”, Proquest)
 * These increased ties are key to creating a trans-Siberian railroad that revitalizes the Asian and Russian economies**
 * Yang et al. 04**- Yang is Professor of Political Science at Yonsei University in Seoul, Korea, and Director of the


 * Improved relations with North Korea... the Moscow-Pyongyang relationship.**


 * A Russian economic collapse will trigger nuclear strikes against the US, provoke a Russo-Sino war, and threaten the world with an accidental launch**
 * David 99 –** Professor of Political Science at John Hopkins University [Steven R., “Saving America from the Coming Civil Wars,” //Foreign Affairs,// Jan/Feb, LN]


 * If internal war does strike... weapons against the United States.**