Clara+Bates+and+Alana+Levin

NEG
contact clarabatess@gmail.com

da - appeasement da - dipcap da - steel da - elections (warming impact) da - elections vs k affs da - Japan da - TPP (TPP good scenario, hotspots impact) da - state department tradeoff da - space leadership da - Xi good cp - abandon taiwan (repeal TRA) cp - HR conditions cp - increase arms sales cp - pic out of glang (vs bataille aff) cp - reform existing MDB's and ratify TPP (vs AIIB) cp - low level coop (vs ISS) k - fem IR k - cap t-must be sustained t-military t-resnick t-usfg t-unconditional t-qpq case turns - abandonment bad vs taiwan arms sales case turns - allied prolif vs taiwan arms sales
 * included in past 1ncs --**

t-qpq cap k CP repeal taiwan relations act w/ dipcap net benefit  t-Resnick t-military  CP repeal taiwan relations w state department net benefit HR conditions CP  t-usfg elections da Japan DA vs aiib w/ elections nb
 * 2NRs ---**

**AFF --- AFGHANISTAN (OBOR) **

 * Alana Levin --- alanadlevin@gmail.com **

The plan aligns interests in Central Asia --- that stabilizes the region and facilitates broader US-China __peripheral cooperation__
Lin 15 - Research Associate, China and the World Program, Princeton University (Dalton, "“One Belt, One Road” and China’s International Relations", Princeton University, 9/15, [|www.uscnpm.org/blog/2016/03/21/one-belt-one-road-and-chinas-international-relations/)//NY] The OBOR project faces the biggest challenges in Pakistan on the security front. Even  AND  but also the broader international community’s acceptance of a China-centric system.

And, moderates are maintaining power now, but engagement is key to beating Chinese nationalists – cooperation undermines the //__motives__// for competition and change Chinese calculus
Can US engagement moderate China’s strategic competition with America? This study indicates the answer AND is a foremost necessary condition for balancing or confrontational behavior (Schweller 2004).
 * Li, 15 – ** professor, East China Normal University, School of International Relations and Area Studies (Xiaoting, “Dealing with the Ambivalent Dragon: Can Engagement Moderate China’s Strategic Competition with America?” International Interactions: Empirical and Theoretical Research in International Relations Volume 41, Issue 3, 2015, DOI:10.1080/03050629.2015.1006728

Xi offsets domestic nationalism by lashing out abroad and heightening cyberconflicts
// Economics is just part of the story of peak China. Years of promoting the // // AND // at home//, or possibly //adventurism abroad to deflect attention away from failure//.
 * Auslin, 15** – resident scholar and the director of Japan Studies at the American Enterprise Institute where he specializes in Asian regional security and political issues (Michael, American Enterprise Institute, “The risks of a falling China”, 7/13/15, [], //11)//

Cyberwar causes extinction
Gady 15 (Franz Stefan, Associate Editor of The Diplomat, Senior Fellow with the EastWest Institute. Article quotes: James Cartwright, retired US Marine Corps General and eighth Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Greg Austin of the EastWest Institute in New York, and Pavel Sharikov of the Russian Academy of Sciences, “Could Cyber Attacks Lead to Nuclear War?”, http://thediplomat.com/2015/05/could-cyber-attacks-lead-to-nuclear-war/) Short fuses on U.S. and Russian strategic forces have particularly //increased the// //AND// a 2014 paper titled “Prompt Global Strike: China and the Spear”.

Absent decreased competition, war and miscalc are inevitable
Christensen 15 6/5/ 15 – Thomas J., Boswell professor of world politics and director of the China and the World Program at Princeton University, is a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, “China's Rising Military: Now for the Hard Part” http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-06-05/china-s-rising-military-now-for-the-hard-part One reason for this is that no consensus exists in East Asia on the territorial AND conditions in which a technologically superior foe attacks crucial targets with conventional weapons.

Aggressiveness towards Taiwan goes nuclear
A crisis over Taiwan could fairly //easily////escalate to nuclear war//, because each step AND military efforts and a general poisoning of U.S.-Chinese relations.
 * Glaser, 11** - Charles L Glaser is a professor in the Elliott School of International Affairs and the Department of Political Science at George Washington University. He is also a fellow in the Kissinger Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (“Will China's Rise Lead to War?” Foreign Affairs, March/April, []

OBOR cooperation facilitates peaceful rise
Ferchen 16’ - Resident scholar at the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, where he runs the China and the Developing World Program, Associate professor in the Department of International Relations at Tsinghua University, Truman and Fulbright-Hays fellow (Matt, “China Keeps the Peace”, March 8, 2016. Carnegie Center for Global Policy, http://carnegietsinghua.org/publications/?fa=63009//AK) According to conventional wisdom, Chinese president Xi Jinping has launched a more ambitious and AND development and a key element in China’s own rapid growth in previous decades.

Coordination serves as a catalyst for maintaining Chinese legitimacy
Caragliano and Coburn 15 – David, international development professional currently managing programs in Asia and Noah, professor of political anthropology at Bennington College, served as an election monitor in Afghanistan in 2014, The Diplomat 15, 4-21-2015, "Could Afghanistan Be a Model for US-China Cooperation?," Diplomat, [] China’s role as a major player in the field of foreign aid and investment will AND similarly bleak assessments on the misuse of U.S. project funds.

Instability paves the way for a massive Uighur rebellion --- military withdrawals make stabilization now crucial
Clarke 15, Clarke is Associate Professor at the National Security College, ANU. He is the author of Xinjiang and China’s Rise in Central Asia – A History (Michael, “Afghanistan: An Opportunity for U.S.–China Cooperation?” The National Interest, 10/12/15, []) //eb Michael Auslin has called for a “new realism” in U.S. AND as Andrew Small has noted, has been dictated by a conflicted mindset:

Rebellion collapses the CCP --- it __fragments__ China
Devary 14 - a contracted researcher at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Center for Global Security and Brookhaven National Laboratory (Scott, "The Approaching Xinjiang Crisis Point", The Diplomat, 10/2/14, thediplomat.com/2014/10/the-approaching-xinjiang-crisis-point/)//NY “China Executes 8 Convicted on Terrorism Charges,” the headline reads. It is AND significant in characterizing the internal function and estimating political costs within the CCP.

__Internal disintegration__ causes extinction
The fourth factor contributing to the perception of __ a China threat is the fear of __ __ AND __ disintegrating China would also pose a threat to its neighbours and ** the world **.
 * Yee and Storey 02 ** [Herbert - Professor of Politics and International Relations at the Hong Kong Baptist University. Ian - Lecturer in Defence Studies at Deakin University, Geelong, Australia. “The China Threat: Perceptions, Myths, and Reality”, Taylor and Francis Group, pdf] bjs

And, switching from containment to balancing strategies prevents Indo-Pak conflict --- current strategies use India as an __intermediary__, risking regional conflict
Javaid 15 — Ph. D Quaid-i-Azam University Islamabad, M Phil, Political Science Islamia University Bahawalpur, Graduate Courses in Government Harvard University, USA. M. Sc Defence & Strategic Studies Quaid-i-Azam University Islamabad (Dr. Umbreen, Reviewing Security in South Asia, 5/7/15, [])//ET// //__ On the regional and international levels, __// __persistent aggression destabilizes Pakistan’s legitimate strategic interests by__ AND// __ effort to surround the nuclear arms race and fabricate a regional restraint regime __.

Goes nuclear
Kenny 16, Colonel Stuart Kenny graduated from the Royal Military College, Duntroon in 1991. Colonel Kenny is a graduate of the UK’s Joint Services Command and Staff College 2003/04. He attended the Defence and Strategic Studies Course at the Centre for Defence and Strategic Studies Course at the Australian Defence College, graduating with a Master of Arts (Strategic Studies) from Deakin University. (Suart, Australian Defense College April 2016 “Instability in Afghanistan: Why Afghanistan matters and what Australia can do to address the causes of instability” http://www.defence.gov.au/ADC/Publications/IndoPac/Kenny%20Afghanistan%20IPSP.pdf) //eb The longstanding rivalry between Pakistan and India, and their respective influence in Afghanistan, AND potential to spill-over into state-on-state conflict .42

China’s looking for investors --- US capital can resolve squo problems
Lucy Hornby, 5-25 - 2016, "China seeks foreign investors for One Belt, One Road push," Financial Times, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b04c0800-2246-11e6-aa98-db1e01fabc0c.html//)HBJ Beijing is encouraging foreign companies to co-invest with Chinese contractors in third countries  AND  owned engineering giants with which it partnered in the Middle East and elsewhere.

Currently, OBOR will destroy the environment --- transparency standards are necessary
Liu Qin, 1-7 - 2016, (Reporter and editor for China dialogue, focusing mostly on the environment in the Asia Pacific, "China needs to pave ‘One Belt One Road’ with green finance, say experts ,", https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/8532-China-needs-to-pave-One-Belt-One-Road-with-green-finance-say-experts-//)HBJ China’s One Belt, One Road initiative, which aims to further the country’s influence AND under increasing pressure to demonstrate that investments are sound, resilient and sustainable.

Environmentally-unfriendly infrastructure projects wreck key ecosystems --- collapses global biodiversity
Laurence 16 --- Research Professor and Australian Laureate at James Cook University (Bill, “Will New Mega-Banks Force A 'Race to The Bottom' For The Environment?”, ALERT Conservation, 4/4/2016, []), “LJH” PANDORA’S BOX The environmental impacts of the modern infrastructure tsunami could easily dwarf climate change AND habitat fragmentation, poaching, fires, illegal mining, and land speculation.

Biod loss causes extinction – tipping points mean every project counts
Smith 10 (Carol, Partner with United Nations University, “Biodiversity, the World’s Economic Backbone”, Our World, [|http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/biodiversity-the-worlds-economic-backbone //] PD) World leaders must get their priorities straight or risk global economic upheaval that will be AND we are gone, albeit minus innumerable other species thanks to our impact.

Now is key – cooperation with China gives the US a say
Zhou, 3-11 – Program Coordinator for the China, East Asia and United States Program, working out of the EastWest Institute’s New York Center (Andi, “Can China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ Save the US in Afghanistan?”, The Diplomat, 3-11-16, [|http://thediplomat.com/2016/03/can-chinas-one-belt-one-road-save-the-us-in-afghanistan/)//JH] It happens that the time is ripe for the United States to do just that  AND //the OBOR framework// to tie China more closely to Afghanistan’s rise or fall.

Coordination solves transparency
Caragliano and Coburn 15 – David, international development professional currently managing programs in Asia and Noah, professor of political anthropology at Bennington College, served as an election monitor in Afghanistan in 2014, The Diplomat 15, 4-21-2015, "Could Afghanistan Be a Model for US-China Cooperation?," Diplomat, [] //In the context of Afghanistan, the U.S. and China may more// //AND// , and provide a future model for U.S.-China cooperation.

The plan aligns interests in Central Asia --- that stabilizes the region and facilitates broader US-China __peripheral cooperation__
Lin 15 - Research Associate, China and the World Program, Princeton University (Dalton, "“One Belt, One Road” and China’s International Relations", Princeton University, 9/15, [|www.uscnpm.org/blog/2016/03/21/one-belt-one-road-and-chinas-international-relations/)//NY] The OBOR project faces the biggest challenges in Pakistan on the security front. Even  AND  but also the broader international community’s acceptance of a China-centric system.

And, moderates are maintaining power now, but engagement is key to beating Chinese nationalists – cooperation undermines the //__motives__// for competition and change Chinese calculus
Can US engagement moderate China’s strategic competition with America? This study indicates the answer AND is a foremost necessary condition for balancing or confrontational behavior (Schweller 2004).
 * Li, 15 – ** professor, East China Normal University, School of International Relations and Area Studies (Xiaoting, “Dealing with the Ambivalent Dragon: Can Engagement Moderate China’s Strategic Competition with America?” International Interactions: Empirical and Theoretical Research in International Relations Volume 41, Issue 3, 2015, DOI:10.1080/03050629.2015.1006728

Absent decreased competition, war and miscalc are inevitable
Christensen 15 6/5/ 15 – Thomas J., Boswell professor of world politics and director of the China and the World Program at Princeton University, is a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, “China's Rising Military: Now for the Hard Part” http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-06-05/china-s-rising-military-now-for-the-hard-part One reason for this is that no consensus exists in East Asia on the territorial AND conditions in which a technologically superior foe attacks crucial targets with conventional weapons.

Coordination serves as a catalyst for maintaining Chinese legitimacy
Caragliano and Coburn 15 – David, international development professional currently managing programs in Asia and Noah, professor of political anthropology at Bennington College, served as an election monitor in Afghanistan in 2014, The Diplomat 15, 4-21-2015, "Could Afghanistan Be a Model for US-China Cooperation?," Diplomat, [] China’s role as a major player in the field of foreign aid and investment will AND similarly bleak assessments on the misuse of U.S. project funds.

Instability paves the way for a massive Uighur rebellion --- military withdrawals make stabilization now crucial
Clarke 15, Clarke is Associate Professor at the National Security College, ANU. He is the author of Xinjiang and China’s Rise in Central Asia – A History (Michael, “Afghanistan: An Opportunity for U.S.–China Cooperation?” The National Interest, 10/12/15, []) //eb Michael Auslin has called for a “new realism” in U.S. AND as Andrew Small has noted, has been dictated by a conflicted mindset:

Rebellion collapses the CCP --- it __fragments__ China
Devary 14 - a contracted researcher at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Center for Global Security and Brookhaven National Laboratory (Scott, "The Approaching Xinjiang Crisis Point", The Diplomat, 10/2/14, thediplomat.com/2014/10/the-approaching-xinjiang-crisis-point/)//NY “China Executes 8 Convicted on Terrorism Charges,” the headline reads. It is AND significant in characterizing the internal function and estimating political costs within the CCP.

__Internal disintegration__ causes extinction
The fourth factor contributing to the perception of __ a China threat is the fear of __ __ AND __ disintegrating China would also pose a threat to its neighbours and ** the world **.
 * Yee and Storey 02 ** [Herbert - Professor of Politics and International Relations at the Hong Kong Baptist University. Ian - Lecturer in Defence Studies at Deakin University, Geelong, Australia. “The China Threat: Perceptions, Myths, and Reality”, Taylor and Francis Group, pdf] bjs

And, switching from containment to balancing strategies prevents Indo-Pak conflict --- current strategies use India as an __intermediary__, risking regional conflict
Javaid 15 — Ph. D Quaid-i-Azam University Islamabad, M Phil, Political Science Islamia University Bahawalpur, Graduate Courses in Government Harvard University, USA. M. Sc Defence & Strategic Studies Quaid-i-Azam University Islamabad (Dr. Umbreen, Reviewing Security in South Asia, 5/7/15, [])//ET// //__ On the regional and international levels, __// __persistent aggression destabilizes Pakistan’s legitimate strategic interests by__ AND// __ effort to surround the nuclear arms race and fabricate a regional restraint regime __.

Goes nuclear
Kenny 16, Colonel Stuart Kenny graduated from the Royal Military College, Duntroon in 1991. Colonel Kenny is a graduate of the UK’s Joint Services Command and Staff College 2003/04. He attended the Defence and Strategic Studies Course at the Centre for Defence and Strategic Studies Course at the Australian Defence College, graduating with a Master of Arts (Strategic Studies) from Deakin University. (Suart, Australian Defense College April 2016 “Instability in Afghanistan: Why Afghanistan matters and what Australia can do to address the causes of instability” http://www.defence.gov.au/ADC/Publications/IndoPac/Kenny%20Afghanistan%20IPSP.pdf) //eb The longstanding rivalry between Pakistan and India, and their respective influence in Afghanistan, AND potential to spill-over into state-on-state conflict .42

OBOR success creates interdependent linkages across Asia
Lee **Hill-choi**, 6-21-20**16**, (South China Morning Post, "China’s one belt, one road initiative set to transform economy by connecting with trading partners along ancient Silk Road," http://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/1978450/chinas-one-belt-one-road-initiative-set-transform-economy//)HBJ In more than 30 years, China has become an economic superpower, with its AND three financial institutions are at the forefront of investing in the infrastructure projects.

Interdependence mitigates war
Drezner 16 – professor of international politics @ Tufts (Daniel, “Five Known Unknowns about the Next Generation Global Political Economy,” http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2016/05/future-global-political-economy-drezner/ios-drezner-web.pdf) __Multiple scholars have observed a secular decline in____interstate violence in recent decades.__ 105 AND Cold War trends and choose to allocate more scarce resources towards their militaries.

Interdependence creates lock-in mechanisms that bind countries together and economically dampens conflict – robust studies
Dafoe & Kelsey, Political Science and International Economics, ’14 (Allan & Nina; assistant professor in political science at Yale & research associate in international economics at Berkeley; Journal of Peace Research, “Observing the capitalist peace: Examining market-mediated signaling and other mechanisms,” http://jpr.sagepub.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/content/51/5/619.full) Countries with liberal political and economic systems //rarely use military force// against each other. AND //capital costs from political risk, monetary coercion, and business sanctions.// T

And it improves vtl
Horwitz, PhD in econ, 6/9 (Steven, econ prof @ St. Lawrence University, PhD in econ @ George Mason University, Affiliated Senior Scholar @ Mercatus Center, Senior Fellow @ Fraser Institute Canada, distinguished scholar @ Foundation for Economic Education, citing **Deirdre McCloskey**, Distinguished Professor of Economics, History, English, and Communication @ University of Illinois at Chicago, “Capitalism Is Good for the Poor”, 6/9/16, Accessed 6/27/16, //Foundation for Economic Education//, https://fee.org/articles/capitalism-is-good-for-the-poor) srivats_narayanan Critics frequently accuse markets and capitalism of making life worse for the poor. This AND truth is clear: nothing has done more for the poor than capitalism.

China’s looking for investors --- US capital can resolve squo problems
Lucy Hornby, 5-25 - 2016, "China seeks foreign investors for One Belt, One Road push," Financial Times, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b04c0800-2246-11e6-aa98-db1e01fabc0c.html//)HBJ Beijing is encouraging foreign companies to co-invest with Chinese contractors in third countries  AND  owned engineering giants with which it partnered in the Middle East and elsewhere.

Currently, OBOR will destroy the environment --- transparency standards are necessary
Liu Qin, 1-7 - 2016, (Reporter and editor for China dialogue, focusing mostly on the environment in the Asia Pacific, "China needs to pave ‘One Belt One Road’ with green finance, say experts ,", https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/8532-China-needs-to-pave-One-Belt-One-Road-with-green-finance-say-experts-//)HBJ China’s One Belt, One Road initiative, which aims to further the country’s influence AND under increasing pressure to demonstrate that investments are sound, resilient and sustainable.

Environmentally-unfriendly infrastructure projects wreck key ecosystems --- collapses global biodiversity
Laurence 16 --- Research Professor and Australian Laureate at James Cook University (Bill, “Will New Mega-Banks Force A 'Race to The Bottom' For The Environment?”, ALERT Conservation, 4/4/2016, []), “LJH” PANDORA’S BOX The environmental impacts of the modern infrastructure tsunami could easily dwarf climate change AND habitat fragmentation, poaching, fires, illegal mining, and land speculation.

Biod loss causes extinction – tipping points mean every project counts
Smith 10 (Carol, Partner with United Nations University, “Biodiversity, the World’s Economic Backbone”, Our World, [|http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/biodiversity-the-worlds-economic-backbone //] PD) World leaders must get their priorities straight or risk global economic upheaval that will be AND we are gone, albeit minus innumerable other species thanks to our impact.

Now is key – cooperation with China gives the US a say
Zhou, 3-11 – Program Coordinator for the China, East Asia and United States Program, working out of the EastWest Institute’s New York Center (Andi, “Can China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ Save the US in Afghanistan?”, The Diplomat, 3-11-16, [|http://thediplomat.com/2016/03/can-chinas-one-belt-one-road-save-the-us-in-afghanistan/)//JH] It happens that the time is ripe for the United States to do just that  AND //the OBOR framework// to tie China more closely to Afghanistan’s rise or fall.

Coordination solves transparency
Caragliano and Coburn 15 – David, international development professional currently managing programs in Asia and Noah, professor of political anthropology at Bennington College, served as an election monitor in Afghanistan in 2014, The Diplomat 15, 4-21-2015, "Could Afghanistan Be a Model for US-China Cooperation?," Diplomat, [] //In the context of Afghanistan, the U.S. and China may more// //AND// , and provide a future model for U.S.-China cooperation.