Jared+and+Conor

South Korea - China rise, Succession, Prolif (not BMD)

**Contention 1 is the Status Quo**
 * Plan: The United States federal government should implement a phased withdrawal of its ground troops in the Republic of Korea.**
 * No DAs – multiple factors make troop reductions inevitable - it’s only a question of when**
 * Printz and Doran** 0 **6** (Scott A., Lieutenant Colonel, and George Doran, Project Adviser, USAWC Strategy Research Project, “A U.S Military Presence in a Post-Unified Korea: Is it Required?”, []) ZParks


 * Ground troops useless for deterrence – naval and air power solves**
 * Niksch, 10** – Senior Associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and is the Senior Adviser for East Asia with the PRS (3/24, Larry, “The Opcon Military Command Issue Amidst a Changing Security Environment on the Korean Peninsula”, http://asiafoundation.org/resources/pdfs/NikschOPCON100324.pdf)


 * Contention 2 is Advantages**


 * Advantage 1 is Succession Politics**
 * A massive power struggle is underway in North Korea – warring factions will facilitate several avenues for conflict**
 * Bandow, 6/9** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (6/9/10, Doug, The Daily Caller, “Confronting North Korea: Who’s in charge?”[], JMP)

**Even if the succession process goes smoothly, regime collapse is still inevitable which will destabilize the region** //**Meyers, 10**// //– professor at Dongseo University in South Korea (3/26/10, B.R. Meyers, “ North Korea on the Edge; If the regime collapses, will the rest of the world be ready?” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704100604575145672974954144.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_RIGHTTopCarousel)//


 * U.S. presence and continued Chinese intransigence on North Korea risks superpower conflict**
 * Emmott, 10** – Independent writer and consultant on international affairs and former editor of The Economist (5/31/10, Bill, The Sunday Times, “China’s stance on North Korea could lead to war,” [], JMP)


 * The plan solves by motivating China and South Korea to effectively influence the leadership transition**
 * Bandow, 08** – Fellow at the American Conservative Defense Alliance and former special assistant to Reagan (9/15/08, Doug, “Dear Leader Goes South,” [], JMP)


 * Chinese involvement is key to stabilize Korea – prevents violent collapse, military response by South Korea, North Korea nuclearization and allied proliferation**
 * Bandow, 10** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (5/3/10, Doug, “Taming Pyongyang,” [], JMP)

“First Among Equals,” [], JMP)
 * Advantage 2 is China**
 * The plan eases the transition to a more multipolar world – trying to cling to the status quo makes hegemonic decline and conflict with China inevitable**
 * Bandow, 09** – Fellow at the American Conservative Defense Alliance and Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (1/12/09, Doug,

Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United States of America”, []]
 * Conflict with China will escalate to global nuclear war**
 * Hunkovic, 09 –** American Military University [Lee J, 2009, “The Chinese-Taiwanese Conflict

**Bandow, 09** – senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to Reagan (2/24/09, Doug, “Balancing Beijing,” EBSCO, JMP)
 * Motivating Beijing to take a greater regional role ensures peaceful rise**


 * Advantage 3 is Prolif.**
 * North Korea will proliferate – US micromanaging fails **
 * Carpenter 2009** – PhD in diplomatic history from Texas, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at Cato, contributing editor to the National Interest, editorial board of the Journal of Strategic Studies (Tad Galen, Cato Institute Handbook for Policymakers, 7th edition, “54. East Asian Security Commitments”, page 563, http://www.cato.org/pubs/handbook/hb111/hb111-54.pdf, WEA)


 * US withdrawal forces China to stop North Korean proliferation—this solves allied prolif**
 * BANDOW 2010** (Doug, senior fellow at the Cato Institute. A former special assistant to President Ronald Reagan, he is the author of Tripwire: Korea and U.S. Foreign Policy in a Changed World and co-author of The Korean Conundrum: America's Troubled Relations with North and South Korea, “Let the Koreans Take Care of the Koreas,” Huffington Post, May 21, []) Calum

 **Bandow and Carpenter 2004** – * JD from Stanford, senior fellow at Cato, former special assistant to Reagan, writes for Fortune, National Interest, WSJ, Washington Times, **PhD in diplomatic history from Texas, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at Cato, contributing editor to the National Interest, editorial board of the Journal of Strategic Studies (Ted Galen and Doug, “The Korean conundrum”, Google Books, pages 96-97, WEA) **

Terrorism causes global nuclear war. Speice, 2006 **(Patrick, J.D. Candidate 2006, Marshall-Wythe School of Law, College of William and Mary, “NEGLIGENCE AND NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION: ELIMINATING THE CURRENT LIABILITY BARRIER TO BILATERAL U.S.-RUSSIAN NONPROLIFERATION ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS,” William & Mary Law Review, Feb, l/n)**

Contention 3 is Framework Debate should only include discussions that are policy relevant - Ks marginalize themselves out of politics and are therefore useless
 * Joseph** Nye, prof**essor at** Harvard** University and former dean of the Harvard Kennedy School., BA suma cum laude Princeton, PhD Harvard, Former Chair National Intelligence Council, Former Asst. Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, you know who he is, [|http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/12/AR2009041202260_pf.html 4-13-0] [|**9**]


 * Empirical validity is enough to justify policy – emphasis on representations and epistemology makes responding to problems impossible **

David Owen,  Reader of Political Theory at the Univ. of Southampton, Millennium Vol 31 No 3 200 2   p. 655-7


 * Focus on representations overlooks agency and hinders policy understanding **


 * Tuathail, 96 ** (Gearoid, Department of Georgraphy at Virginia Polytechnic Institute, Political Geography, 15(6-7), p. 664, science direct)


 * A focus on representations destroys social change by ignoring political and material constraints **
 * Taft-Kaufman, 95 ** (Jill, professor, Department of Speech Communication And Dramatic Arts, at Central Michigan University, Southern Communication Journal, Spring, proquest)