Lucy+McDermott+and+Julia+Gyourko

Plan
Plan: The United States federal government should offer to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) a staged agreement consisting of restrictions on United States arms sales in return for verifiable limit on PRC military production and deployment relevant to the Republic of China (ROC) and a promise that the PRC will not use force against the ROC

Advantage
====Risk of war is growing in the Taiwan strait- The PRC is unsatisfied with Tsai's promises of sticking to the status quo on ambiguous relations—greater reassurances are necessary to preserve cross-strait relations==== Tsai Ing-wen's Policy toward China During the presidential campaign, Tsai Ing- AND the term "cross-Strait" instead of China-Taiwan.11
 * Glaser 2016** (Bonnie, Senior Adviser for Asia and Director, China Power Project, she is concomitantly a non-resident fellow with the Lowy Institute in Sydney, a senior associate with CSIS Pacific Forum and a consultant for the U.S. government on East Asia, prior she served as a consultant for various U.S. government offices, including the Departments of Defense and State, "Prospects for Cross-Strait Relations as Tsai Ing-wen Assumes the Presidency in Taiwan," April, 2016, A Report of the CSIS CHINA POWER PROJECT, Center for Strategic and International Studies, https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/160418_Glaser_ProspectsCrossStraitRelations_Web.pdf, silbs)

US Arms sales ensure regional instability, makes conflict inevitable, and destroys regional stability
Xiao, This article was first published in Chinese and translated by Chen Boyuan, US' arms sales to Taiwan impede Sino-US relationship, http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2013-01/17/content_27716480.htm, msm U.S. arms sales to Taiwan not only directly harm China's essential interest AND can the China-US relationship develop in a stable and smooth manner.
 * An 1-17-13**

Arms sales don't protect Taiwan- multiple warrants
Wu and Blanchard 15- J.R., staff writer, Ben, staff writer, Taiwan arms deal enough to give China bloody nose, but no more, (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-taiwan-arms-idUSKBN0U10ZY20151218) JB But Taiwan, which is expected to vote in a new government next month less AND the hundreds of missiles it is believed to have targeted at the island.

Offering to curb arms sales is the key internal link to resolving tensions over Taiwan and greater US-China cooperation – spills over to broader arms reductions in the region
There are some in the US and Chinese governments who exhibit symptoms that James C AND in the Taiwan Strait, but in the entire western Pacific, too.
 * Blanchard and Shen 15 (Jean-Marc F. Blanchard is an Assistant Dean for International Cooperation and Exchange at Shanghai Jiaotong University, Simon Shen is** the **Master of Global Political Studies at China University, Hong Kong, 1-31-15, Conflict and cooperation in Sino-US relations: change and continuity, causes and cures, pp. 102-104 // PD)**

Economic and cultural ties don't check – poor political relations outweigh
Taiwan and China have the most unique bilateral relationship in the world. The two AND conflict between the two sides threatens to spillback, negatively effecting economic relations.
 * Wen-cheng '5**
 * (Lin Wen-cheng, Dean of Social Sciences at National Sun Yat-sen University and Executive Director of the Institute for National Policy Research in Taiwan, December 2005, "Cross-strait Confidence Building Measures," p. 1, JH)**

====US CBMs with China and Taiwan over US arms sales and PLA military deployments would lead to greater stability in the region by getting rid of the ineffective status quo policies and increasing trust among nations which leads to effective and long-lasting cross-strait dialogue==== Swaine 11- Michael, expert in China and East Asian security studies and a Senior Associate in the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, America's Challenge: Engaging a Rising China in the Twenty-First Century, (Washington: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) JB Regarding Washington's political and security relations with Taiwan, as indicated in chapter 2 despite AND Washington or Beijing to give up its military deployments in other areas.32

The plan solves for all alt causes to effective cross-strait relations and confidence building measures
Swaine 11- Michael, expert in China and East Asian security studies and a AND the most advanced and "high-impact" technologies and weapons systems.
 * This card is also very good at answering the politics DA, Alliance DA, and Taiwan DA
 * This card also draws a distinction between reducing arms sales to the necessary materials needed for self-defense and getting rid of all arms sales

The aff is key – conditional limitations would be accepted by Beijing as a way to alter power structures to defuse tensions and ally concerned are exaggerated
In general, true balance-of-power environments can at least potentially increase AND , including any resort to nuclear weapons, would almost certainly be avoided.
 * Swaine 15**
 * (Michael, "Beyond American Predominance in the Western Pacific: The Need for a Stable U.S.-China Balance of Power," pg online @ http://carnegieendowment.org/2015/04/20/beyond-american-predominance-in-western-pacific-need-for-stable-u.s.-china-balance-of-power/i7gi //um-ef)**

China, Taiwan, and the US will say yes to CBMs regarding arms sales- everyone has a lot to gain from it
Hickey 13- Dennis, James F. Distinguished Professor and Director of the Graduate Program in Global Studies with a focus on the International Relations of East Asia, National Security and American Foreign Policy., Imbalance in the Taiwan Strait, (http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/parameters/issues/autumn_2013/4_hickey.pdf) JB Option 4: Negotiation, Compromise, and Arms Control If a US administration opted AND promotes stability and "would increase warning time and thus build confidence."56

US Strategic ambiguity risks miscalculation
Colby and Slocombe, 16 - Mr. Colby is a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. Mr. Slocombe was U.S. undersecretary of defense for policy from 1994 to 2001 (Elbridge and Walter, "U.S. 'Ambiguity' on Taiwan Is Dangerous" Wall Street Journal, 5/23, http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-ambiguity-on-taiwan-is-dangerous-1464022837 If China were to attack Taiwan, would American forces come to the island's defense AND not to fight hard enough to prevent Beijing from achieving its core goals.

Miscalculation in the strait is the most probable cause of nuclear war – strategic mistrust makes escalation likely
Lowther, 13 – citing a CSIS report (William, Tapei Times, 3/16, "Taiwan could spark nuclear war: report," http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2013/03/16/2003557211) Taiwan is the most likely potential crisis that could trigger a nuclear war between China AND arsenals, such a conflict would be tremendously dangerous and quite possibly devastating."

The aff solves miscalculation- a reduction in arms sales allows adverse impacts to be avoided
Lowther 15- William, staff writer, Beijing 'too passive' over Taiwan: Chinese analysts, (http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2015/04/25/2003616749) JB Swaine is described by Carnegie as "one of the most prominent American analysts in AND adverse outcomes, including a resort to nuclear weapons, could be avoided.

Miscalc causes U.S.-draw in – CBM's key to effective negotiations and reductions in military risk
Glaser and Cossa 10- Bonnie, senior adviser for Asia and the director of the China Power Project at CSIS, Ralph, president of the Pacific Forum CSIS, Building Trust Across the Taiwan Strait, (https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/legacy_files/files/publication/100107_Glaser_BuildingTrust_Web.pdf) JB A central reason that the United States has backed cross-strait CBMs is that AND between the two sides of the strait should be settled peacefully through negotiations.

US-China nuclear war over Taiwan likely now – mutually assured destruction isn't factored into PRC strategy
For the United States and its allies and partners in Asia, China's aggressive efforts AND unprepared for a situation that escalates beyond its ability to prevent a catastrophe.
 * Littlefield and Lowther 15**, Alex Littlefield is Senior Editor at Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, Adam Lowther is a Research Professor at the Air Force Research Institute (AFRI) at Maxwell Air Force Base, (8/11/15, Taiwan and the Prospects for War Between China and America, The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/taiwan-and-the-prospects-for-war-between-china-and-america/)//kap

Nationalism controls the CCP's response to foreign actions—the public will respond violently to attacks on their national identity – new arms sales risk CCP instability
Analysts differ about the extent to which autonomous (non-state-directed) AND ensured. Thus, the Politburo must pay close heed to PLA views.
 * Garver 2016** (John, is Emertius Professor in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology. He specializes in China's foreign relations. He served for many years on a the editorial boards of the journals China Quarterly, Journal of Contemporary China, Issues and Studies, and Asian Security. He is a member of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, has testified before the U.S. Congress, and is the author of twelve books and seventy–five refereed articles and book chapters dealing with China 's foreign relations, "China's Quest: the History of the Foreign Relations of the People's Republic of China," Chapter 28, "China's Quest for Modernity and the Tides of World History," Oxford University Press, 2016, silbs)

CCP instability triggers multiple scenarios for nuclear conflict
Regional Security There are a number of areas of concern among China's immediate regional neighbors AND investment (FDI) into developing countries, primarily on the African continent.
 * Perkinson 12**
 * (Jessica, MA International Affairs, American University, frmr Program Coordinator Center for Asian Studies, American University, "The Potential for Instability in the PRC: How the Doomsday Theory Misses the Mark," pg online @ http://aladinrc.wrlc.org/bitstream/handle/1961/10330/Perkinson_american_0008N_10238display.pdf?sequence=1 //um-ef)**

The plan decreases Chinese nationalist pressure and removes the primary source of Chinese insecurity
Simply put, the grand bargain proponents argue that there might be certain areas, AND , still appears to retain a considerable degree of desirability and feasibility.4
 * Chaudhary 15 –** Research Associate, National Maritime Foundation (NMF), New Delhi; Masters Degree of Conflict Analysis & Peace-building (Rana Divyank, "China-US 'Grand Bargain': India's Future Stakes in Great Power Peace," National Maritime Foundation, July 2015, reposted at https://inkandire.wordpress.com/2015/10/07/china-us-grand-bargain-indias-future-stakes-in-great-power-peace/)\\BPS


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