Maggie+Li+and+Michael+Cerny


 * neg:**
 * Spanos**
 * T-Unconditional**
 * T-QPQ**
 * Elections (China-bashing 1NC)**
 * Japan Disad**
 * Xi Good Politics**
 * Appeasement DA**
 * UNCLOS CP**

Chinese will retaliate to future U.S. arms sales with sanctions
China’s recent threat to impose sanctions on U.S. defense companies that sell AND business in China, according to data compiled last year by Factset Research.
 * Harrell 16 **- Peter, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security and former deputy assistant secretary of state for counter-threat finance and sanctions, China threatens sanctions against U.S. companies: Is this the future?, ([]) JB

Sanctions collapse US-China relations and escalates south china sea instability
CBN 2015 (China Business News, “US Arms Deal For Taiwan: A New Apple Of Discord Between China and US,” [], December 17, 2015, silbs) China has protested the US administration's go ahead of $1.83 billion arm AND China sea region and this deal is going //to spur up the tension.//

Taiwan policy is uniquely key to relations and outweighs all other US actions
Freeman, 11 - Co-chair of U.S China Policy Foundation. Served in the United States Foreign Service, State, and Defense Departments. Previous Ambassador to Saudi Arabia (Chas, "Beijing, Washington, and the Shifting Balance of Prestige," Middle East Policy Council, 5/10/2011, http://www.mepc.org/articles-commentary/speeches/beijing-washington-and-shifting-balance-prestige?print)//DK Antagonistic encounters in China’s near seas are a significant factor in worsening Sino-American AND or live with the increasingly adverse consequences of our failure to do so.

A staged Framework Agreement de-escalates US-China tensions and create a sustainable path towards relations and cooperation on global existential threats
To overcome the structural weaknesses in U.S.-China relations—which could AND conflict U.S. and Chinese military operations and avoid accidental confrontations.
 * Gross, 13** - adjunct fellow of Pacific Forum CSIS, former Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for International Security Affairs in the Department of State, former Counselor of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (Donald, __The China Fallacy: How the U.S. Can Benefit from China’s Rise and Avoid Another Cold War__, p. 152-155

Maintaining good relations is key to prevent war—cooperative efforts and risk of miscalculation
Ash 15 (Timothy Garton, October 16, Timothy Garton Ash is a historian, political writer and Guardian columnist., If US relations with China turn sour, there will probably be war, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/16/us-relations-china-war-america)//SLR What is the biggest challenge facing the next president of the United States? How AND and Britain, which will welcome Xi on a state visit next week.

US-China climate cooperation facilitates __mitigation and adaptation__ strategies globally – solves extinction
Li 14 – MA in Global Studies @ U Denver, Int’l Affairs Coordinator @ UN (Xiaoyu, “China-US Cooperation: Key to the Global Future,” China Institute of International Studies, http://www.ciis.org.cn/english/2014-01/13/content_6606656.htm) • Cooperation on climate change mitigation, adaptation, and consequence management. China- AND US businesses as well as//lower costs and widely disseminate// clean energy //technologies//.

Expert consensus that warming is real and existential – melting glaciers ignite a cascade that exceeds cost-benefit analysis
Treich and Rheinberger, 15 —Christoph Rheinberger (Professor of Health Policy and Management @ Harvard) and Nicolas Treich (Professor at the Toulouse School of Economics). Citing Weitzman (economist @ Harvard) and Bostrom (prof @ Oxford). “On the economics of the end of the world as we know it,” The Economist, [] -- br CLIMATE change //puts humanity at risk//. The Pope’s celebrated encyclical letter on the subject AND be very effective in overcoming the current inertia that climate negotiations suffer from.

Independently, new arms sales provoke nationalist backlash and CCP instability
Garver 2016 (John, is Emertius Professor in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology. He specializes in China’s foreign relations. He served for many years on a the editorial boards of the journals China Quarterly, Journal of Contemporary China, Issues and Studies, and Asian Security. He is a member of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, has testified before the U.S. Congress, and is the author of twelve books and seventy–five refereed articles and book chapters dealing with China 's foreign relations, “China’s Quest: the History of the Foreign Relations of the People’s Republic of China,” Chapter 28, “China’s Quest for Modernity and the Tides of World History,” Oxford University Press, 2016, silbs) Analysts differ about the extent to which autonomous (non-state-directed) AND ensured. Thus, the Politburo must pay close heed to PLA views.

That triggers nuclear conflict
Perkinson 12 (Jessica, MA International Affairs, American University, frmr Program Coordinator Center for Asian Studies, American University, “The Potential for Instability in the PRC: How the Doomsday Theory Misses the Mark,” pg online @ http://aladinrc.wrlc.org/bitstream/handle/1961/10330/Perkinson_american_0008N_10238display.pdf?sequence=1 //um-ef) Regional Security There are a number of areas of concern among China’s immediate regional neighbors AND investment (FDI) into developing countries, primarily on the African continent.

The Democratic Progressive Party election has put China-Taiwan relations on the brink
Hewitt, 5/19 (Duncan Hewitt, Shanghai correspondent for Newsweek/IBT Media, previously a BBC correspondent in Beijng and Shanghai, and also worked for the BBC World Service in London, focusing on East and Southeast Asia, studied Chinese at Edinburgh University, 5-19-2016, "Relations Between Mainland China And Taiwan On A Tightrope As New Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen Takes Office," International Business Times, [], accessed 7/2/16, JH) SHANGHAI — Experts are predicting a bumpy start to Tsai Ing-wen’s presidency , AND the heads of the two sides since the end of the civil war.

Recent accidental launch contributes to increasingly tense China-Taiwan relations
Guerrero 7/1, (Kay, Emmy Awards nominated producer for CNN, investigative segment producer and writer, 7/1/16, Taiwan accidentally launches missile toward China, kills fishing boat captain, CNN, http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/01/asia/taiwan-fires-missile-on-china/index.html)//kap (CNN) A Taiwan warship mistakenly launched a supersonic "aircraft carrier killer" AND , whose party has traditionally leaned in favor of formal independence from China.

Miscalculation in the strait is the __most probable__ cause of nuclear war – strategic mistrust makes escalation likely
Taiwan is the //most likely// potential crisis that could trigger a nuclear war between China AND arsenals, such a conflict would be tremendously dangerous and quite possibly devastating. ”
 * Lowther, 13** – citing a CSIS report (William, Tapei Times, 3/16, “Taiwan could spark nuclear war: report,” [])

Confidence building measures in return for reduction of arms sales solves for stability in the region
There has been interest among U.S. academic circles and think tanks for AND years to complete. They noted that the PLA’s missile buildup has continued.
 * Kan 14 **- Shirley, specialist in Asian Security, Taiwan: Major U.S. Arms Sales Since 1990, ([]) JB

Mutually assured destruction can’t check US-China nuclear war over Taiwan
Littlefield and Lowther 15, Alex Littlefield is Senior Editor at Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, Adam Lowther is a Research Professor at the Air Force Research Institute (AFRI) at Maxwell Air Force Base, (8/11/15, Taiwan and the Prospects for War Between China and America, The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/taiwan-and-the-prospects-for-war-between-china-and-america/)//kap For the United States and its allies and partners in Asia, China’s aggressive efforts AND unprepared for a situation that escalates beyond its ability to prevent a catastrophe.

Reduction in arms sales sets verifiable missile limits and solves miscalculation
Swaine is described by Carnegie as “one of the most prominent American analysts in AND //adverse outcomes//, including a resort to nuclear weapons , //could be avoided//.
 * Lowther 15 **- William, staff writer, Beijing ‘too passive’ over Taiwan: Chinese analysts, ([]) JB

1ac – plan
====The United States federal government should offer to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) a staged agreement consisting of restrictions on United States arms sales in return for verifiable limit on PRC military production and deployment relevant to the Republic of China (ROC) and a promise that the PRC will not use force against the ROC.====

The plan solves ineffective status quo policies and promotes mutual trust
Regarding Washington's political and security relations with Taiwan, as indicated in chapter 2 despite AND Washington or Beijing to give up its military deployments in other areas .32
 * Swaine 11 **- Michael, expert in China and East Asian security studies and a Senior Associate in the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, America's Challenge: Engaging a Rising China in the Twenty-First Century, ( Washington: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) JB

The plan solves all causes for tensions in the cross-strait relationship through confidence building measures
The feasibility and parameters of such an agreement could be initially explored via an authorized AND the most advanced and "high-impact" technologies and weapons systems.
 * Swaine 11 **- Michael, expert in China and East Asian security studies and a Senior Associate in the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, America's Challenge: Engaging a Rising China in the Twenty-First Century, ( Washington: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) JB

Beijing will accept symbolic reunification
Freeman, 11 - Co-chair of U.S China Policy Foundation. Served in the United States Foreign Service, State, and Defense Departments. Previous Ambassador to Saudi Arabia (Chas, "Beijing, Washington, and the Shifting Balance of Prestige," Middle East Policy Council, 5/10/2011, http://www.mepc.org/articles-commentary/speeches/beijing-washington-and-shifting-balance-prestige?print)//DK American priorities look all the more inverted when one considers that Beijing has offered to AND outcome? If not, why are we behaving as if it were?