Fred+&+Nico

Aff - jason.2898.levin@gmail.com Neg - fr3d.wang@gmail.com

__**AFF - NATURAL GAS**__

=Natural Gas Affirmative=

The shale boom is unsustainable—US reserves and productivity are decreasing rapidly
Gopinath 13 —New Delhi economist writing for Yale Global Online (Deepak, “Shale Energy No Quick Solution,” Yale Global Online, http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/shale-energy-no-quick-solution)BC The speed and scope of the shale-led energy renaissance in the US has AND 345 billon barrels, equivalent to 10 percent of estimated global oil resources.

Natural gas prices will keep increasing despite flat consumption—that impacts sectors throughout the economy
Schwartzel, 13 [Erich Schwartzel, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Expert on Fracking, visited Pappas’ Public Policy Class and was part of a round table discussion that consisted of Barry Rabe, professor at UM and others, really funny too, “U.S. report predicts rising natural gas prices in 2013-14”, []] The average price of natural gas is expected to //increase// by almost a dollar in //AND// said suggests greater rig efficiency in extracting more gas from a single location.

The impact is price spikes
Maize 12 [“Is Shale Gas Shallow or the Real Deal?”, Kennedy, Veteran Journalist Kennedy Maize has spent the past 40 years working as a journalist, analyst, and manager in the private sector and federal government, with over 35 years of that focused on energy and environmental topics, http://www.powermag.com/gas/Is-Shale-Gas-Shallow-or-the-Real-Deal_5188.html] In an interview with POWER, Berman argued that the boom in drilling shale gas AND __be gas-coal switching if prices do go much higher than now.”__

Robust domestic production is key to manufacturing growth—that’s the basis for economic recovery
Duesterberg, 12 [Tom is Executive Director of the Manufacturing and Society in the 21st Century program at the Aspen Institute. He recently retired as President and CEO of The Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, an economic research and executive education organization based in Arlington, Virginia with more than 500 manufacturing firms as members. Previous positions include: Director of the Washington Office of The Hudson Institute, Assistant Secretary for International Economic Policy at the U.S. Department of Commerce, chief of staff to two members of Congress, and associate instructor at Stanford University. His commentary and analysis on manufacturing, economic performance, globalization, and related policy issues can be found in major news outlets. He holds a B.A. degree from Princeton and M. A. and Ph.D. degrees from Indiana University, “Impact of the Energy Boom on US Manufacturing”, []] The manufacturing sector has been leading the US economic recovery since the end of the AND renewable energy—manufacturing uses 90 percent more renewables than the transportation sector.

Maintaining low prices through adequate supply is key to lock in a massive economic benefit—that galvanizes key industries
Pirog and Ratner 12 - *Energy specialist in the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies International Economics Program, **specialist in energy policy for the Congressional Research Service (Robert and Michael, “Natural Gas in the U.S. Economy: Opportunities for Growth” Congressional News Service, http://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42814.pdf)//WK Expanded supply, coupled with low natural gas prices, has the potential to contribute AND , would need to be changed to a more market-oriented method.

Natural gas production directly correlates with growth and innovation—unique spillover effects
Carey 12 [Julie M, Julie M. Carey is an energy economist with Navigant Economics who provides consulting and testifying services Navigant’s unconventional oil and gas offerings include advisory services for strategic business decision analysis, construction risk management, economic and antitrust analyses, investment banking and restructuring advisory services, and expert services for disputes and investigations, “How Unconventional Oil And Gas Is Supercharging The U.S. Economy”, http://www.forbes.com/sites/energysource/2012/12/13/how-unconventional-oil-and-gas-is-transforming-the-u-s-economy/] It’s an exciting time to be in the energy industry in America. The impact AND __infrastructure build out and related opportunities__ (including both direct and indirect jobs).

Domestic manufacturing is key to overall resilience
Ettlinger, 11 [Michael, Vice President for Economic Policy at the Center forAmerican Progress Prior to joining the Center, he spent six years at the EconomicPolicy Institute directing the Economic Analysis and Research Network.Previously, he was tax policy director for Citizens for Tax Justice and the Instituteon Taxation and Economic Policy for 11 years. He has also served on the staff ofthe New York State Assembly. “The Importance and Promise of American Manufacturing Why It Matters if We Make It in America and Where We Stand Today”, http://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/issues/2011/04/pdf/manufacturing.pdf] __Manufacturing is //critically important// to the //American economy//__. For generations, the strength of AND __vulnerable to everything from exchange rate fluctuations to trade embargoes to natural disasters__.

Economic collapse causes competition for resources and instability that escalates and goes nuclear
Harris and Burrows, 9 – *counselor in the National Intelligence Council, the principal drafter of Global Trends 2025, **member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis”, Washington Quarterly, http://www.twq.com/09april/docs/09apr_burrows.pdf) Increased Potential for Global Conflict Of course, the report encompasses more than economics  AND  within and between states in __a more dog-eat-dog world.__

Our impact has a strong statistical basis – rally around the flag
Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises,” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-214 Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict __AND__ not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention.

Low natural gas prices key to domestic steel manufacturing
James 12 - Correspondent for Reuters (Steve, “Analysis: Steelmakers eye gas to cut costs, drive exports”, Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/16/us-steel-gas-idUSBRE82F12Y20120316)//WK America's steel industry, for decades a symbol of industrial decline, is betting on AND American industrial power, a competitive edge in the 21st Century.

Low steel prices are the vital internal link to primacy
AISI et al. 7 - (*American Iron and Steel Institute, **Specialty Steel Industry of North America,** *Steel Manufacturers Association, Steel Manufacturer’s Association, *United Steel Workers, “Steel and the National Defense”, http://www.ssina.com/news/releases/pdf_releases/steel_and_national_defense_0107.pdf)//WK This analysis presented by the U.S. steel industry addresses the importance of AND problems; • Inventory problems, long lead times and extended construction schedules.

Hegemony solves conflict escalation and great power war
Ikenberry, Brooks, Wohlforth 13 [Don't Come Home, America: The Case against Retrenchment Stephen G. Brooks (bio), [|G. John Ikenberry] (bio) and William C. Wohlforth (bio), Stephen G. Brooks; G. John Ikenberry and William C. Wohlforth STEPHEN G. BROOKS is Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College. G. JOHN IKENBERRY is Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University and Global Eminence Scholar at Kyung Hee University in Seoul. WILLIAM C. WOHLFORTH is Daniel Webster Professor of Government at Dartmouth College, [|International Security] Volume 37, Number 3, Winter 2012, p. Project Muse] Assessing the Security Benefits of Deep Engagement Even if deep engagement's costs are far less AND disengaged—even as it pushes cooperation toward U.S. preferences.

Natural gas acts as a bridge fuel—spurring broad renewable development
Ju 12 – Anne Ju (senior science writer for the Cornell Chronicle) July 17, 2012 “Study Proves Natural Gas Can Bridge the Gap to a Clean Energy Economy” [] Natural gas is a good //transition step// on the road to greener energy sources like AND fuels is equally beneficial in percentage terms no matter how fast the transition.”

CO2 emissions will run away in the status quo—natural gas is the only effective alternative to coal—U.S. development is modeled globally and prevents extinction
Riley 12 —BA, LL.M., PhD, professor of energy law at The City Law School at City University London (Alan, 8/13/12, “Shale Gas to the Climate Rescue,” http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/14/opinion/shale-gas-to-the-climate-rescue.html, RBatra) The battle against runaway climate change is being lost. The green movement and the AND of radical cuts in carbon dioxide emissions over the short and medium term.

The plan solves warming – most recent and comprehensive study
Levi, 1/3/13 [Climate consequences of natural gas as a bridge fuelMichael Levi, David M. Rubenstein Senior Fellow for Energy and the Environment and Director of the Program on Energy Security and Climate Change, Climate Consequences of Natural Gas As a Bridge Fuel, []] 5 Conclusions and discussion Beginning with well known stabilization scenarios that feature direct transitions from AND does it mean that other plausible scenarios might not have superior climate outcomes.

OCS expansion key to solve warming
Lamborn, 08 [Path of wisdom: Open up Outer Continental Shelf to gas drilling, House Representative Doug Republican Colorado, []] Many years ago that great philosopher Woody Allen wrote, “More than any other AND I see a bad moon rising / I see trouble on the way .”

GHG emissions are the proximate cause
Costello 11 – Anthony, Institute for Global Health, University College London, Mark Maslin, Department of Geography, University College London, Hugh Montgomery, Institute for Human Health and Performance, University College London, Anne M. Johnson, Institute for Global Health, University College London, Paul Ekins, Energy Institute, University College London [“Global health and climate change: moving from denial and catastrophic fatalism to positive action” May 2011 vol. 369 no. 1942 1866-1882 Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society] Advocacy about the health consequences will ensure that climate change is a high priority. AND __as dissipation of metabolic heat becomes impossible,__ therefore __making__ many __environments uninhabitable__.

Catastrophic warming risks extinction
Mazo 10 – PhD in Paleoclimatology from UCLA(Jeffrey Mazo, Managing Editor, Survival and Research Fellow for Environmental Security and Science Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, 3-2010, “Climate Conflict: How global warming threatens security and what to do about it,” pg. 122)//BB The best estimates for global warming to the end of the century range from 2 AND adaptation to these extremes would mean profound social, cultural and political changes.

Even if some warming is inevitable, keeping it below 4 degrees avoids the worst impacts
Kim 12 – PhD in Anthropology @ Harvard, former president of Dartmouth, Now President of the World Bank (Jim Yong, “Turn Down the Heat,” p. ix)//BB __ The 4°C scenarios are devastating __ : the inundation of coastal cities; __ increasing __ __ AND __ in mind. The World Bank Group will step up to the challenge.

Independently, emissions cause ocean acidification – extinction
Romm 12 – physicist and climate expert, Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress (Joseph J., “Science: Ocean Acidifying so fast that it threatens humanity’s ability to feed itself”, 3/2/12; http://earthlawcenter.org/news/headline/science-ocean-acidifying-so-fast-it-threatens-humanitys-ability-to-feed-itself/) The world’s oceans may be turning acidic faster today from human carbon emissions than they AND species goes extinct it’s gone forever. We’re playing a very dangerous game .”

OCS restrictions must be lifted but federal action is key – Congress has to fund DOI leasing projects
Lieberman 08 – senior policy analyst for Energy and Environment for the Heritage Foundation (Ben, “Listing the Offshore Drilling Ban: A Positive Step in the Fight against High Energy Prices”, The Heritage Foundation, 7/14/2008, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2008/07/lifting-the-offshore-drilling-ban-a-positive-step-in-the-fight-against-high-energy-prices)//BD Washington must do something about the increasing price of gasoline, now topping $4 AND them back. Thus far, none of these efforts has been successful.

85% of gas is off limits now
Luthi, 12 [Luthi is the president of the National Ocean Industry Association, representing more than 275 companies engaged in all aspects of the exploration and production of both traditional and renewable energy resources on the nation’s outer continental shelf, “Let's find agreement on new offshore access”, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/energy-a-environment/267089-lets-find-agreement-on-new-offshore-access] Now that the election is (finally) behind us, President Obama has an AND for us there, because we’re not allowed to go look.

And, the plan creates certainty for offshore production—balances supply
Griles 3 [Lisa, Deputy Secretary, Department of the Interior, “Energy Production on Federal Lands,” Hearing before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, United States Senate] Mr. GRILES. __America’s__ public __lands have an abundant opportunity for exploration and //development//__ __AND__ __from and buy, //so they can have certainty about where to go.//__

And, that sustains low prices and ensures adequate supply
Hastings, 12 [House Representative Doc, Republican Washington, President Obama's offshore drilling plan must be replaced, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/energy-a-environment/239529-president-obamas-offshore-drilling-plan-must-be-replaced] __Though__ President __Obama uses lofty rhetoric to claim support for__ American oil and __natural gas__ __AND__ or support using American energy to __create__ American __jobs and //strengthen America’s economy//__.

Nearly 100 new projects are capable of development
Paul Hillegeist et al 11 (President and COO at Quest Offshore Resources, Inc, Sean Shafer, Project Director, Andrew Jackson, Project Manager, Leslie Cook, Senior Research Consultant) December 2011 “The State of the Offshore U.S. Oil and Gas Industry” http://energytomorrow.org/images/uploads/Quest_2011_December_29_Final.pdf __If drilling permits going forward were to be issued at pre____‐ moratorium rates,__ __AND__ to the nation in terms of energy security, employment and government revenue.

Otherwise, restrictions crush predictability and timing of projects
Hagerty 10 Curry L. (Specialist in Energy and Natural Resources Policy at the Congressional Research Service) June 15, 2010 “Outer Continental Shelf Moratoria on Oil and Gas Development” http://crs.ncseonline.org/nle/crsreports/10Jul/R41132.pdf __One legacy of congressional moratoria is their impact on the //timing of possible OCS development//__ __AND__ restrictions were defensible in the absence of more permanent alternatives for similar leasing prohibitions

__**PAST NEGS**__

Security Politics States CP Heg Retrenchment
 * 1NC vs. Helen-Raneem (OSW)**


 * 2NR---Security**

T - Development Security Advantage CP (with 3 planks) Politics Heg Retrenchment Russia SOI Dedev
 * 1NC vs. Emily-June (Nuclear Shipping)**


 * 2NR---T**

Security Politics Advantage Counterplan (with too many planks) China Coal DA China Manufacturing DA
 * 1NC vs. Colin-Christina (Natural Gas)**


 * 2NR---China Coal, China Manu, Politics**

China Coal DA Politics Security
 * 1NC vs. Rahul-Ritt (Natural Gas)**


 * 2NR---Security**

Politics (Midterms-GOP Good) T - Its Courts CP Heg Turns (War, China) China Manufacturing DA China Coal DA
 * 1NC vs. Akshy-Emma (Natural Gas)**


 * 2NR---PTX, Heg Turns, Case**

Politics (Immigration-Cyber Terror) T - Its Death Cult Russia Exports DA Heg Turns China Coal DA
 * 1NC vs. Christina-Colin (Natural Gas)**


 * 2NR---PTX, Case**