Katie+and%20Sydney


 * Plan: The United States federal government should close all U.S. military bases in the Okinawa prefecture and withdraw those forces.**


 * Advantages:** Japan-US relations, regime stability, ecology, economy

__**Contention 1 is Inherency**__

GlobalSecurity.org, Updated (, Military, , )
 * The U.S. and Japan agreed to relocate the Futenma Base to Nago – Prime Minister Hatoyama promised Japan closing of the base in Futenma with no relocation – U.S. plans a dramatic withdrawal of presence now, but continues plans for relocation to Nago**
 * Global Security.ORG 9** – Staff writer (16 11, “Okinawa, Japan”, http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/facility/okinawa.htm)

The United States and Japan ... other equipment for the US military.


 * The Democratic Party of Japan promised to kick Futenma off the island and to preven the relocation of the base, but they have failed to deliver their promise. The U.S. must initiate withdrawal.**
 * Bandow 6/2** senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to Reagan J.D [Doug, June,2010 . from Stanford University http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/2010/06/02/needed-a-new-u-s-defense-policy-for-japan/; WBTR]

Okinawans long ago tired, understandably ... the world’s second-largest economy?


 * Withdrawal happening now – non uniques your DA**
 * AFP, 6/27**/10 (AFP is a press agency that writes extensively about international affairs. “US drawdown from Iraq gathers pace” June 27, 2010. http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/1066018/1/.html)

The withdrawal of American combat ... is eminently feasible," O'Hanlon added.

__**Contention 2 is Japan-US Relations**__

(Doug, Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute, “Japan Can Defend Itself,” Cato Institute, pg online @ [] ag)
 * US presence in Okinawa is damaging US Japan relations**
 * Bandow, 5/12/10**

Making fewer promises to intervene ... time for Washington to deliver.


 * Futenma Air Base is the sorest point between the US and Japan; must be removed, not relocated**
 * Shuster, 10** (6/21/10, Mike, National Public Radio, “Japan's PM Faces Test Over U.S. Base On Okinawa,” http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=127932447)

The Marine base at Futenma ... U.S. military forces in Japan.


 * Appeasing the Okinawans over Futenma key to Japan-US alliance**
 * Tanaka, ’10** – Senior Fellow at the Japan Center for International Exchange (2/10, Hitoshi, “The US-Japan Alliance: Beyond Futenma,” http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:BrLWAbFxrrEJ:www.jcie.org/researchpdfs/EAI/5-1.pdf+japan+equal+negotiations+us&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESheENPuqbIG-8RbfWchijC7WxbtZKTDrU0wN8bzSwk_YulPh9htyz3amNMQWtMuAlJAkehw8leYo2IQZf7qMesvk_G-kemr_jkwP3XutsFN6dpV8YCmiR2i4Ns6zfseGSYONfkC&sig=AHIEtbQHXZpJVcMaBydKC8HT0kgaT2qngA)

On the other hand, it ... cannot simply disregard these pressures.


 * Relations are key to Asian stability – prevents conflict in Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, and southeast asia – each can go nuclear – as relations wander the US MUST renew the alliance**
 * INSS 2k** (Institute for National Strategic Studies – National Defense University. The United States and Japan: Advancing Toward a Mature Partnership, October, http://www.ndu.edu/inss/strforum/SR_01/SR_Japan.htm)

Major war in Europe is ... and reinvigorating bilateral security ties.


 * Indo-Pak nuclear war will escalate globally and destroy the planet**
 * Caldicott 02,** Founder of Physicians for Social Responsibility [Helen, The New Nuclear Danger: George W. Bush’s Military-Industrial Complex, p. X]

The use of Pakistani nuclear ... of most life on earth.

THE DOOMSDAY SCENARIO THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross-strait war escalating into a full-scale war between the US and China. If
 * Taiwan conflict leads to nuclear armageddon**
 * Strait Times 2k** (June 25, “Regional Fallout: No one gains in war over Taiwan”, Lexis)

Washington were to conclude that ... puts sovereignty above everything else.


 * Plan is a prerequisite to the relations needed to deter North Korea and China and create peace in the region**
 * Katsumata and Shimbun 2/5** Senior writers for Daily Yomiuri ( Hidemichi and Yomiuri, 2/5/10, “ Deterrence part of Futenma issue”, [])

Starting with a proposal to ... Japan and the United States.

__**Contention 3 is Regime Stability**__


 * After Hatoyama was forced to stepdown, new PM Kan’s leadership is in jeopardy with his recent announcement that he plans to keep the 2006 agreement with the U.S.**
 * Talmadge, ’10** (6/22/10, Eric, Associated Press, “US-Japan security pact turns 50, faces new strains,” http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5islkPj_84APsquFWNdqr2kuTwDQwD9GG68080)

But while the alliance is ... who has expressed opposition to it.


 * Kan’s support of the relocation of the Nago relocation plan will cause the DPJ to lose seats in the upper house in July- That kills Kan’s agenda**
 * Reuters, 6/14** (6/14/10, “Okinawa Governor Tells Japan PM U.S. Base Deal Hard”, http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE65E0KU20100615?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews)

Voter perceptions that Kan's predecessor ... an Asia-Pacific leaders summit.


 * Solving Futenma will boost DPJ credibility to win the election and create regime stability**
 * Clausen 6/20** **–** PhD Candidate in International Relations (6/20/10, Daniel, Electronic Journal of Contemporary Japanese Studies, “The Future of Japanese Defense Politics”, http://www.japanesestudies.org.uk/discussionpapers/2010/Clausen.html)

The victory of the Democratic ... the DPJ's mandate to rule.


 * Kan needs to follow through on removing Futenma if he is to stay in office**
 * Fackler, 6/15** (6/15/10, Martin, The International Herald Tribune, “Japanese Leader’s Most Daunting Task? Staying in Office”, http://www.lexisnexis.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T9621965671&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T9621965678&cisb=22_T9621965677&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=8357&docNo=2)

Yet despite Japan's severe problems... urgency than their leaders do.''


 * We’ll isolate two scenarios:**


 * First is the economy**


 * Political instability causes a Greece-like meltdown in Japan – the brink is NOW**
 * Jakarta Post, ’10** (6/14/10, The Jakarta Post, “East Asia needs a strong Japan,” [])

Protracted uncertainties in Japanese politics ... power in the next election.


 * Japan’s debt problem risks global economic collapse—need strong leadership for reform**
 * The Economist, 6/5** (6/5/10, “Leaderless Japan; Yukio Hatoyama Resigns”, http://www.lexisnexis.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T9621498533&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T9621498537&cisb=22_T9621498536&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=7955&docNo=3)

It used to be the ... stop the bomb from exploding.

(“Defenseless Japan Awaits Typhoon,” pg online @ lexis ag)
 * Japanese economy is key to the global economy and to check back Chinese nuclear conflict**
 * The Guardian, 2/11/02**

Even so, the west cannot afford ... its bigger (and nuclear) neighbour.


 * Economic decline causes a nuclear war**
 * Mead, ‘92**( Walter Russell, NPQ’S Board of advisors, New perspectives quarterly, summer 1992, page 30 )

Hundreds of millions - billions - of ... and Japan did in the 30s.


 * Scenario Two is Japan Prolif**


 * Regime stability key to Japan-China relations, which are key to prevent nuclear prolif**
 * Kapila, ’10** - an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst, and the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group (6/7/10, Subhash, South Asian Analysis, http://www.southasiaanalysis.orgpapers39/paper3848.html)

Simply put, to the Chinese ... on the United States too.

[Richard, Military correspondent for The New York Times for ten years, 5-24, “The Dangers of a Nuclear Japan,” Real Clear Politics, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/05/24/nuclear_japan_96638.html]
 * Japan prolif causes a chain reaction in Asia and collapses the NPT.**
 * Halloran, 2009**

That anxiety has reinvigorated a ... under the US nuclear umbrella.

[Stephen, Distinguished Prof. Pol. Sci. – Penn. State Brandywine, Comparative Strategy, “Anticipatory Attacks: Nuclear Crisis Stability in Future Asia”, 27, InformaWorld]
 * Nuclear war**
 * Cimbala, 2008**

If the possibility existed of ... marginalization of major interstate warfare.


 * And, now is key** - **the status quo kills relations and regime popularity**
 * The Daily Yomiuri (Tokyo), 6/20** (6/20/10, The Daily Yomiuri (Tokyo), “Talks Needed to Boost Japan-US Alliance”, http://www.lexisnexis.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T9604571746&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T9604571749&cisb=22_T9604571748&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=145202&docNo=1)

South Korea and Southeast Asian nations ... seek acceptance of the plan

__**Contention 4 is Ecology**__


 * The United States’ new military base will further deplete Okinawa’s coral reefs ecosystem as well as its fresh water supplies, creating irreversible ecological damage to the ecosystem**
 * Center for Biological Diversity, n.d.**- specialist center that works to create protection of species (n.d., Center for Biological Diversity, “Help Save Okinawa Dugong and Coral Reef Ecosystem,” [] )

Okinawa is home to ecologically ... government must abandon this plan.


 * Okinawa’s coral reef and island ecosystems are key to sustaining Pacific biodiversity.**
 * Davies et al, 7**- Gump South Pacific Research Station, UC-Berkeley (Richard B., July 2007, Makoto Tsuchiya, faculty of science, University of the Rukyus, Rene Galzin, Center of Insular Research and Observations of the Environment, “Biodiversity Research on Coral Reef and Island Ecosystem: Scientific Cooperation in the Pacific Region,” http://www.bioone.org/doi/full/10.2984/1534-6188%282008%2962%5B299%3ABROCRA%5D2.0.CO%3B2 )

Another worldwide trend that has ... region is an urgent priority.


 * The destruction of biodiversity leads to extinction- furthering the depletion of human resources, especially marine life, will destroy ecosystems.**
 * CIEL, n.d.**- Non-profit organization that provides environmental legal services in international and comparative environmental law (n.d., Center for International Environmental Law, “What is Biodiversity and Why is it Important?” [] )

Biodiversity is the variability of ... primary source of animal protein.


 * Extinction**
 * Diner ‘94**—Major David, Judge Advocate General’s Corps, United States Army, Military Law Review, Winter, 143 Mil. L. Rev. 161

Biologically diverse ecosystems are characterized ... edging closer to the abyss.

__**Contention 5 is Framework**__

Resolved: To express, as an ... (or, to appropriate no money).
 * Interpretation: the neg has to defend a competitive policy option or the status quo**
 * 1. Predictability: our interpretation is grounded in the resolution:**
 * Resolved means to express by formal vote—this is the only definition that’s in the context of the resolution**
 * Webster’s Revised Unabridged Dictionary**, 19**98** ([|dictionary.com])
 * 2. Education:** **We have to focus on the resolution, otherwise the neg guts topic specific education which comes first, we can learn about philosophy in a library, debate allows for in depth education of a yearly changing political question lasting us a life-time as civically engaged citizens.**
 * 3. Ground: our framework is key to predictable ground—the neg can get links off the mandates and actions of the plan, this is best because it encourages specific research skills.**

__**Contention 6 is the Economy**__


 * Military presence in Okinawa tanks their economy**
 * Bandow 98** **-** senior fellow at Cato Instituion and special assistant to Reagan (9/1/98, Doug, “Okinawa: Liberating Washington's East Asian Military Colony” Policy Analysis no. 314)

Finally, the Marines cite the ... to change U.S. government policy.


 * Okinawa’s economy key to Japan’s economy.**
 * Hook and Siddle, 3-** Ph.D. Professors at School of East Asian Studies at Sheffield University (Glenn D., Richard, “Japan and Okinawa: Structure and Subjectivity,” p.1-42)

Okinawa. It subordinate integration into ... to the pressures of globalization.


 * Japan’s debt problem risks global economic collapse—need strong leadership for reform**
 * The Economist, 6/5** (6/5/10, “Leaderless Japan; Yukio Hatoyama Resigns”, http://www.lexisnexis.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T9621498533&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T9621498537&cisb=22_T9621498536&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=7955&docNo=3)

It used to be the ... stop the bomb from exploding.


 * Continued economic decline will result in global war.**
 * Mead, 9** - senior fellow for [|U.S. foreign policy]at the Council on Foreign Relations (Walter Russell, 2/4/09, The New Republic, “Only Makes You Stronger,” [|http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=2] AD 6/30/09)

Frequently, the crisis has weakened ... may still have to fight.