Amy+and+Ifrah

South Korea-

Regionalism & Korean Conflict


 * Plan:**


 * The United States federal government should implement a phased withdrawal of its ground troops in the Republic of Korea.**

=Korea War Adv – 1ac=


 * Advantage 1 is Korean Conflict**


 * U.S. presence makes North Korean provocations inevitable and guarantees our draw in**
 * Bandow, 10** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (5/3/10, Doug, “Taming Pyongyang,” [], JMP)

Suspicions continue to mount... so in 2010 is bizarre.

=Korea War Adv – 1ac=


 * Even if a conflict won’t start __intentionally__, current high tensions risk __accidents__ that __escalate__ to global nuclear war**
 * STRATFOR, 10** (5/26/10, “North Korea, South Korea: The Military Balance on the Peninsula,” [], JMP)

Managing Escalation But __no one,......__ situation escalates much further.

=Korea War Adv – 1ac=


 * The status quo is fundamentally different – nuclear use is now likely and deterrence won’t solve**
 * Chung, 10** – Visiting Professor at the School of International Relations, Nanyang Technological University and former Professor of international relations at Seoul National University (6/1/10, Chung Chong Wook, “The Korean Crisis: Going Beyond the Cheonan Incident,” http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/Perspective/RSIS0352010.pdf)

The sinking of the Cheonan,......... premature pessimism is not advisable.


 * Reinforcing deterrence just makes __miscalculation__ more likely**
 * Armstrong, 10 –** Professor of history and director of the Center for Korean Research at Columbia University (Charles, 5/26/10, CNN, “The Korean War never ended” [])

New York (CNN) -- The Korean War............ not start it anew.

=Korea War Adv – 1ac=

This report examines North ............ __**WMD attacks or incidents.**__
 * Deliberate, accidental or unauthorized CBW use is likely**
 * ICG, 09** (6/18/09, International Crisis Group, “North Korea’s Chemical and Biological Weapons Programs,” [], JMP)


 * Will __spread globally__ within __six weeks__ – greater risk that nuclear weapons**
 * Levy, 07** (6-8-07, Janet Ellen, The American Thinking, “The Threat of Bioweapons,” [], JMP)

Immediately following 9-11, an................ can be developed within days.

=Korea War Adv – 1ac=


 * Impact is extinction**
 * Ochs 02** – MA in Natural Resource Management from Rutgers University and Naturalist at Grand Teton National Park [Richard, “BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS MUST BE ABOLISHED IMMEDIATELY,” Jun 9, http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html]

__Of all the weapons of mass ............__ the highest of all crimes. =Korea War Adv – 1ac=


 * And, North Korean aggression and nuclearization will cause intentional, miscalculated, or accidental nuclear conflict – even a limited nuclear war causes rapid cooling and ozone disruption, collapses the economy, and spills over to other hot spots**
 * Hayes & Hamel-Green, 10** – *Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development, AND **Executive Dean of the Faculty of Arts, Education and Human Development act Victoria University (1/5/10, Executive Dean at Victoria, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia,” [])**


 * The international community is ........** **consideration from the international community.**

=**Korea War Adv – 1ac**=

Withdrawing troops is the best response to North Korea’s perception of U.S. weakness – stops it from drawing U.S. forces into a wider conflict Stanton, 10** – U.S. Army Judge Advocate in Korea from 98-02 and practicing attorney in Washington, D.C. (4/12/10, Joshua, The New Ledger, “It's Time for the U.S. Army to Leave Korea,” [], JMP) **


 * Proceeding against the advice ......aligns with the correct result. **

=**Korea War Adv – 1ac**=

Independently, withdrawal will motivate South Korea and China to stabilize and de-nuclearize the peninsula Erickson, 10** – Executive Director of CenterMovement.org (5/6/10, Stephen, “End the Cold War in Korea: Bring American Troops Home Before it’s Too Late,” [], JMP) **


 * On the night of March 26 .......**__ nuclear-free Korean peninsula .__
 * __Most crucially__, from an ..........__home before it’s too late.__**

=**Regionalism Adv – 1ac**=

Advantage 2 is Asian Regionalism

U.S. alliance relationships are unsustainable – Asian powers should develop a regional security strategy that __does not__ rely on the U.S. – solves WMD terrorism, tame China, prevents Sino-Japan conflict, Japan imperialism, solve resource conflicts and stop major power domination Francis, 06** – former Australian Ambassador to Croatia and fellow at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University from 05-06 (Fall 2006, Neil, Harvard International Review, “For an East Asian Union: Rethinking Asia's Cold War Alliances,” [], JMP) **


 * At the conclusion of the .........** **, independent East Asian Union.**

=**Regionalism Adv – 1ac**=

Specially, withdrawal will reduce Korea’s veto of multilateral security mechanisms – yielding a peace system on the peninsula that prevents great power war Lee, 09** – Seoul National University (December 2009, Geun, “The Nexus between Korea’s Regional Security Options and Domestic Politics,” [|www.cfr.org], JMP) **


 * Korea’s Option of Multilateral Security Cooperation in Northeast Asia **
 * The idea of multilateral ........__the U.S.-Korea alliance.__**

=Regionalism Adv – 1ac= Accelerating U.S. withdrawal is key to catalyze a multipolar balance of power in the region and pave the way for an off-shore balancing strategy. Espiritu, 06** – Commander, U.S. Navy (3/15/06, Commander Emilson M. Espiritu, “The Eagle Heads Home: Rethinking National Security Policy for The Asia-Pacific Region,” [], JMP) **


 * Can the U.S. live with .........the Eagle to head home. **

=**Regionalism Adv – 1ac**=

The plan eases the transition to a more multipolar world – trying to cling to the status quo makes hegemonic decline and conflict with China inevitable Bandow, 09** – Fellow at the American Conservative Defense Alliance and Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (1/12/09, Doug, **
 * “First Among Equals,” [], JMP) **


 * It’s the job of military ......** __smoother will be the transition.__

=**Regionalism Adv – 1ac**=

Strengthening the East Asian regional security architecture key to solve terrorism, territorial disputes, disease, environmental degradation, and maritime security Nanto, 08** – Specialist in Industry and Trade Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division for Congressional Research Services (1/4, “East Asian Regional Architecture: New Economic and Security Arrangements and U.S. Policy,” www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33653.pdf) **


 * __A stronger __**__regional security ..........**Russia, or India, or Japan--or the**__ **__U __ nited __S __ tates. **

=**Regionalism Adv – 1ac**=

Also, plan prompts South Korean conventional force modernization which allows it to deter Chinese aggression Bandow, 09** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to Reagan (6/16/09, Doug, “A Tattered Umbrella,” [], JMP) **


 * South Korea’s foreign minister .......**__and the rising Asian giant.__

=Regionalism Adv – 1ac= Extinction Cheong, 2000** – East Asia Correspondent **
 * (Ching Cheong, The Straits Times, “No one gains in war over Taiwan,” 6-25-2000, Lexis-Nexis Universe) **


 * __ A cross-strait conflict, .......sovereignty above everything else. __**

=**Regionalism Adv – 1ac**=

Only a commitment to withdrawal troops will motivate South Korea and China to stabilize and denuclearize the peninsula – this avoids accidental conflict with China, preserves larger U.S. deterrence and stops friction with Japan Garfinkle, 03** – taught American foreign policy and Middle East politics at the University of Pennsylvania and is editor of The National Interest (1/27/03, Adam, National Review, “Checking Kim,” [], JMP) **


 * NO NORMAL DIPLOMACY **
 * The U.S. finds itself in ......** __help them do so.__