Kate+and+Mihir


 * Observation One Inherency - Obama is committed to maintaining the Status Quo on our policy toward Japanese bases**


 * Bandow, 2009, senior fellow at the Cato Institute** [Doug, November 29, “Policy Change for East Asia,” available at http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11015, accessed on 7/14/2010]

U.S. President ..... foreign policy.

**Thus the Plan: The United States federal government should remove its military presence from Japan.**

**Observation Two – Japanese Leadership**


 * Japan is not fulfilling its leadership role – it does not have the military resources to match its economic potential**


 * Klingner, 2010-is senior research fellow for Northeast Asia in the Asian Studies Center at the Heritage Foundation** [Bruce, “Japan Risks Irrelevancy In Asia” March 24, accessed July 14, http://www.heritage.org/Research/Commentary/2010/03/Japan-Risks-Irrelevancy-in-Asia]


 * __Japan's .......__**__**necessary reciprocal gestures**__**.**


 * Specifically, Japanese defense spending is insufficient now - US military presence in Japan undermines their incentive to increase military spending**


 * Preble, 2006, director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute** [Christopher, April 18, “Rethinking the U.S.-Japan Strategic Relationship”, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=6335, accessed 7/14/10]

Although __**Japan’s ......**____**indigenous military capabilities**__, capabilities that might prove useful to both countries in the future.


 * America’s Military Presence locks in an outdated security arrangement – it prevents Japan from rethinking its constitution and expanding their military responsibilities.**


 * Bandow, 2010, senior fellow at the Cato Institute** [Doug, May 12, “Japan Can Defend Itself,” available at http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11804, accessed on 7/14/2010]

World War II ended 65 years ago. ..... a rethink unnecessary.

**Two Scenarios – First, China**


 * Japanese leadership is necessary to prevent a Chinese attack on Taiwan – it solves better than US military presence because China would be more credibly deterred by a regional actor, and Japan would support Taiwan**


 * Preble, 2006, director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute** [Christopher, April 18, “Rethinking the U.S.-Japan Strategic Relationship”, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=6335, accessed 7/14/10]

The Japanese public appears to be ...... current ambiguous pledge originating with a **__United States that is struggling to sustain a host of commitments around the globe.__**


 * Expanding Japanese military power is necessary to balance Chinese expansion without destabilizing Asia – Japan is the only Asian nation that would be accepted as a counterweight**


 * Preble, 2006, director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute** [Christopher, April 18, “Rethinking the U.S.-Japan Strategic Relationship”, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=6335, accessed 7/14/10]

Meanwhile, **__Japan’s neighbors should welcome a potential .....__**open the door to Japanese militarism that has remained dormant for nearly 60 years.


 * Japanese leadership is key to a regional multipolar system to stabilize East Asia – it serves as a strategic counter weight to China**


 * Carpenter, 2010, vice president for defense and foreign-policy studies at the Cato Institute** [Ted, April 7, “Tokyo Rising”, available at http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11665, accessed on 7/14/2010]

One very clear fact emerged from my recent meetings with..... **__is the best outcome both for the United States and China's neighbors__**__.__


 * Asian Multipolarity is the best solution to Chinese expansion – Japan must play a leading role**


 * Carpenter, 2010, vice president for defense and foreign-policy studies at the Cato Institute** [Ted, April 7, “Tokyo Rising”, available at http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11665, accessed on 7/14/2010]

If **__China__** does not succumb to internal weaknesses (which are ..... embrace a similar view.


 * The impact is Global nuclear war**


 * Hunkovic, 09 - American Military University** [Lee J, 2009, “The Chinese-Taiwanese Conflict Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United States of America”, []]


 * __A war between China, Taiwan and the United States has the .....__** outcome, therefore, other countries will not be considered in this study.

**Second Scenario – North Korea**


 * A more independent Japan would resolve North Korean provocation and proliferation better than America’s military presence – it would be more credible than US pressure which has empirically failed**


 * Preble, 2006, director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute** [Christopher, April 18, “Rethinking the U.S.-Japan Strategic Relationship”, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=6335, accessed 7/14/10]

The North Korean crisis may have provided the catalyst for a ..... security order.


 * Aggressive North Korean behavior makes the accidental or intentional use of Weapons of Mass Destruction Likely**


 * The International Crisis Group, 09** (6/18/09, International Crisis Group, “North Korea’s Chemical and Biological Weapons Programs,” [], JMP)

This report examines North Korea’s chemical and ..... __**or incidents.**__


 * Even if a conflict won’t start intentionally, current high Korean tensions risk accidents that escalate to global nuclear war**


 * STRATFOR, 10** (5/26/10, “North Korea, South Korea: The Military Balance on the Peninsula,” [], JMP)

Managing Escalation But no one, of course, is..... much further.


 * Observation Three – American Leadership**


 * America’s Forward Deployed military presence relies on a strategy of Unipolarity – which will inevitably collapse due to overstretch. We must begin transitioning away from unipolar primacy soon so that we can control the shape of the transition**


 * Layne, 2006- Senior Research Fellow at the CATO Institute.** [Christopher, The Peace of Illusions: American Grand Strategy from 1940 to Present)

At the same time, .....**__United States can do this by adopting an__** **__offshore balancing grand strategy__**__.__


 * Overseas bases in Japan will collapse US military readiness due to imperial overstretch**


 * Johnson, 2010, president of Japan Policy Research Institute** [Chalmers, May 6, “The Downward Slope of EmpireTalking With Chalmers Johnson”, http://www.counterpunch.org/kreisler05062010 .html, accessed 7/17/10]

What interests me here .......around the country; it is not all located at Northrop in El Segundo, California.


 * Japanese bases make our leadership unsustainable – they cause interventionism because they are inherently offense oriented. This undermines US national security**


 * Bandow, 2009, senior fellow at the Cato Institute** [Doug, August 31, “Tokyo Drift,” available at http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=10496, accessed on 7/14/2010]

In fact, **__America's aggressive ......__** spending


 * Offshore balancing solves better for US leadership than a forward deployed military presence in Japanese bases – it avoids nuclear entanglement in Deterrence failures – this outweighs the risk of proliferation**


 * Bandow, 2009, senior fellow at the Cato Institute** [Doug, August 31, “Tokyo Drift,” available at http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=10496, accessed on 7/14/2010]

Particularly important is the fu.....__**own security.**__


 * Offshore balancing solves great power conflict – it is an effective alternative to US unipolar primacy**


 * Layne, 98 Visiting Associate Professor at the Naval Postgraduate School** (Christopher,, World Policy Journal, “Rethinking American grand strategy: Hegemony or balance of power in the twenty-first century?” Volume 15, Issue 2, Summer, Proquest)


 * __The United States__** is far better placed than.....of a prudent grand strategy.


 * It’s not a questions of “Hegemony Good” vs “Hegemony Bad” – it is a question of which Strategy best promotes and extends US Global Leadership – an Onshore Military Presence or an Offshore Balancing role.** **Offshore balancing solves All of their offense—multipolarity boxes in conflicts and allows the U.S. to maintain strategic flexibility**


 * Layne, 98 Visiting Associate Professor at the Naval Postgraduate School** (Christopher,, World Policy Journal, “Rethinking American grand strategy: Hegemony or balance of power in the twenty-first century?” Volume 15, Issue 2, Summer, Proquest)

Because of the interlocking effects of geography, ..... **__relative power decline__****.**


 * Observation Four - Solvency**


 * The US military presence deters Japan from developing its own military capabilities due to dependence – withdrawal will encourage Japan to assume an international leadership role**


 * Preble, 2006, director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute** [Christopher, April 18, “Rethinking the U.S.-Japan Strategic Relationship”, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=6335, accessed 7/14/10]

These numbers make clear that **__....__** of the current patron-client security relationship with the United States.


 * Withdrawing our presence encourages Japan to expand its military role in Asia – this is necessary for regional security arrangements**


 * Preble, 2006, director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute** [Christopher, April 18, “Rethinking the U.S.-Japan Strategic Relationship”, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=6335, accessed 7/14/10]

Under the terms of the current security treaty__, ....__**__Japanese will weigh such considerations very carefully.__**


 * Withdrawal allows Japan’s military to contain future threats by increasing flexibility and by allowing the US to act as an offshore balancer**


 * Bandow, 2010, senior fellow at the Cato Institute** [Doug, March 25, “Okinawa and the Problem of Empire,” available at http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11617, accessed on 7/14/2010]

The Japanese people may decide that the threats they ...... Okinawans finally might gain justice — after 65 long years.


 * Withdrawal from Okinawa causes the US to forge new relations with East Asia that encourage cooperation and diplomatic solutions**


 * Bandow, 2010, senior fellow at the Cato Institute** [Doug, March 25, “Okinawa and the Problem of Empire,” available at http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11617, accessed on 7/14/2010]

The Obama administration should pursue a different course, .... has any need to attempt to preserve regional military hegemony.


 * Japanese independence allows it to focus on its most important foreign policy issues, fostering responsible leadership. It also reduces the US’s exposure to entanglement**


 * Preble, 2006, director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute** [Christopher, April 18, “Rethinking the U.S.-Japan Strategic Relationship”, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=6335, accessed 7/14/10]

On the other hand, it seems more likely that, ....and confusion over Japan’s strategic interests; at worst, Japan has subordinated its own interests to those of its distant patron__.__


 * Forcing Japan to fund its own military will force it to act more responsibly – they will look for diplomatic solutions because they are cheaper.**


 * Bandow, 2009, senior fellow at the Cato Institute** [Doug, October 20, “Transforming Japan-US Alliance,” available at http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=10645, accessed on 7/14/2010]


 * __Tokyo should spend whatever it believes to be ....__****__an American defense guarantee. If they do feel at risk, there's no reason for them not to do more — a lot more.__**