Matt+and+David

= = Korean War Adv – 1ac


 * Plan:** **The United States federal government should implement a phased withdrawal to remove nearly all Armed Forces in the Republic of Korea.**


 * Advantage 1 is Korean War**


 * U.S. presence makes provocations inevitable and guarantees our draw in**
 * Bandow, 10 ** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (5/3/10, Doug, “Taming Pyongyang,” [], JMP)

Suspicions continue to mount that North Korea … __ involvement in Washington’s war .__ Also involved is the ROK’s self-respect. In two years the U.S. plans on devolving operational control of the combined forces to South Korea. Yet some South Koreans fear their nation won’t be ready to lead its own defense. That Washington took military command in underdeveloped, impoverished South Korea in 1950 is understandable. To argue that America must continue doing so in 2010 is bizarre.


 * Even if a conflict won’t start __intentionally__, current high tensions risk __accidents__ that __escalate__ to global nuclear war**
 * STRATFOR, 10 ** (5/26/10, “North Korea, South Korea: The Military Balance on the Peninsula,” [], JMP)

Managing Escalation But __no one, of course, is … much further.__


 * The status quo is fundamentally different – nuclear use is now likely and deterrence won’t solve**
 * Chung, 10 ** – Visiting Professor at the School of International Relations, Nanyang Technological University and former Professor of international relations at Seoul National University (6/1/10, Chung Chong Wook, “The Korean Crisis: Going Beyond the Cheonan Incident,” http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/Perspective/RSIS0352010.pdf)

The sinking of the Cheonan, for which South Korea blames Pyongyang, has triggered a crisis in the Korean peninsula. Though there is every reason to be pessimistic about the future, there is also a need to look beyond the crisis for long-term regional stability. __ SHARPLY RISING military tensions ….__ ominous developments, however, premature pessimism is not advisable.


 * The U.S. response to bolster deterrence will just increase provocations and make miscalculation more likely**
 * Armstrong, 10 –** Professor of history and director of the Center for Korean Research at Columbia University.. (Charles, 5/26/10, CNN, “The Korean War never ended” [])

On the other hand, __there is a …__ War, not start it anew.


 * North Korea might decide that it has nothing to lose in the status quo – making more miscalculations likely**
 * Righter, 10 ** – Worked for the Far Eastern Economic Review and Newsweek in Asia, as development and diplomatic correspondent of The Sunday Times. (Rosemary, 5/25/10, Times Online, “It’s risky, but this time North Korea must pay” [])

It is __the lack of obvious motive for this unprovoked attack that has …__ never quite reached this danger point.


 * Also, North Korean aggression and nuclearization will cause intentional, miscalculated, or accidental nuclear conflict – even a limited nuclear war causes rapid cooling and ozone disruption, collapses the economy, and spills over to other hot spots**
 * Hayes & Hamel-Green, 10 ** – *Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development, AND **Executive Dean of the Faculty of Arts, Education and Human Development act Victoria University (1/5/10, Executive Dean at Victoria, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia,” [])**


 * The international community is … international community. **

U.S. presence is useless to deter North Korea – withdrawal will motivate South Korea and China to stabilize and de-nuclearize the peninsula Erickson, 10 ** – Executive Director of CenterMovement.org (5/6/10, Stephen, “End the Cold War in Korea: Bring American Troops Home Before it’s Too Late,” [], JMP) **


 * On the night of March 26 the … __it’s too late.__**

Withdrawal will spur peaceful negotiations and inter-Korean peace Feffer, 4 ** – contributor to Foreign Policy In Focus and the author of //North Korea, South Korea: U.S. Policy at a Time of Crisis// (6/23/04, John, “Bring Our Troops Home (from Korea),” [], JMP) **


 * The vortex of Korean politics can … policy victory. It needs to demonstrate that it isn't ignoring the Korean peninsula. And it needs to show the world that the United States, if only after 51 years, does eventually bring home its troops. **

Conventional weaknesses will force North Korea to resort to CBW use – either deliberate, accidental or unauthorized ICG 9 ** (6/18/09, International Crisis Group, “North Korea’s Chemical and Biological Weapons Programs,” [], JMP) **


 * This report examines North Korea’s chemical and biological weapons capabilities in the context of its military doctrine and national objectives. It is based on open source literature, interviews and unpublished documents made available to Crisis Group. Companion reports published simultaneously assess the DPRK’s nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities and what the policy response …. __significant danger because it risks __**__deliberate, accidental or unauthorised WMD attacks or incidents.__

North Korean bioweapon use would __spread globally__ within __six weeks__ – greater risk that nuclear weapons Levy 7 ** (6-8-07, Janet Ellen, The American Thinking, “The Threat of Bioweapons,” [], JMP) **


 * Immediately following 9-11, an anthrax attack originating … within days. **

Extinction Ochs 2 ** – MA in Natural Resource Management from Rutgers University and Naturalist at Grand Teton National Park [Richard, “BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS MUST BE ABOLISHED IMMEDIATELY,” Jun 9, http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html] **


 * __Of all the weapons of mass …__ crimes. **

=Regionalism Adv – 1ac= Advantage 2 is Regionalism We have 2 scenarios First is regional alliance U.S. alliance relationships are unsustainable – Asian powers should develop a regional security strategy that __does not__ rely on the U.S. – solves a litany of impacts Francis, 6 ** – former Australian Ambassador to Croatia and fellow at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University from 05-06 (Fall 2006, Neil, Harvard International Review, “For an East Asian Union: Rethinking Asia's Cold War Alliances,” [], JMP) **


 * At the conclusion of the Second World War, the United States established bilateral military alliances in the Asia-Pacific intended to contain Soviet and Chinese communist expansion in the region. __ US security strategy now focuses largely on combating … __**__power**.**__ **The determining factor will be ASEAN’s ability to provide the leadership necessary to create a strong, independent East Asian Union.**

Regionalism is currently halfhearted – only a __clear sign__ of U.S. withdrawal can motivate __sustainable__ regional security cooperation Carpenter and Bandow 4 – * ** Vice President of Defense and Foreign Studies at the Cato Institute, AND ** Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute ** ( ** Ted Galen Carpenter, 12/2004, The Korean Conundrum: America’s Troubled Relations With North and South Korea, pg 160-161)DR

The security treaties with the …** based in Guam and other U.S. territories in the central and west-central Pacific.**


 * Specially, withdrawal will reduce Korea’s veto of multilateral security mechanisms – yielding a peace system on the peninsula that prevents great power war**
 * Lee, 9 ** – Seoul National University (December 2009, Geun, “The Nexus between Korea’s Regional Security Options and Domestic Politics,” [|www.cfr.org], JMP)

The idea of multilateral se… **__ security mechanism in Northeast Asia__**__, particularly when such an option still maintains a loose form of the U.S.-Korea alliance__


 * Second is Russia**
 * U.S. military concessions toward North Korea are critical to break the deadlock in the six party talks. This will provide a framework to re-establish US-Russian relations, stabilize the peninsula, and allow Russia to become a major economic player in the region.**
 * Toloraya, 8 ** – diplomat with the rank of Minister and Director of Korean Programs at IMEMO, the top Russian Foreign Ministry official in charge of the Korean peninsula, Doctor of Economy and a Full Professor degree in Oriental Studies (Georgy, //Asian Perspective,// “ **THE SIX PARTY TALKS: A RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE”, ProQuest) **

__The ____ real root of the controversy, … increased need for Russia’s greater involvement in Northeast Asian regional energy and industrial projects.__

**Relations key to solve accidental nuclear war** ** Cohen 10 ** —prof, Russian Studies and History, NYU. Prof emeritus, Princeton (Stephen, US-Russian Relations in an Age of American Triumphalism: An Interview with Stephen F. Cohen, 25 May 2010, http://www.thenation.com/article/us-russian-relations-age-american-triumphalism-interview-stephen-f-cohen, AMiles)

Cohen: The real concern I have with this "we … connect these dots.


 * Extinction**
 * Bostrom ** ** 2 ** (Nick, Professor of Philosophy and Global Studies at Yale, "Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards," 38, www.transhumanist.com/volume9/risks.html)

A much greater existential risk emerged … __ destroy __ or thwart __ humankind __ ’s potential __ permanently __.

**Independently, peaceful US overtures toward Korea is critical to break the deadlock in Russian-DPRK relations and pave the way for a massive expansion of renewed economic ties on the peninsula** ** Joo, 9 ** – Professor of Political Science at the University of Michigan (April 09, Seung-Horris, “Moscow–Pyongyang Relations under Kim Jong-il: High Hopes and Sober Reality”)

Trade and Investment In the late...   on Moscow–Pyongyang relations will be anybody's guess. No matter what happens, Russia will have a long way to go before it is recognized as a major political–economic player in Korea and Northeast Asia.


 * Solves the Russian economy – now is key**
 * Kang 8 ** (Seonjou, Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, “Korea’s Pursuit of Energy Security”, [] )

__Among the__ energy-exporting… __ distribution channels away from China. This diversification would make it attractive for Russia to devise a cooperation strategy with Korea. __


 * A Russian economic collapse will trigger nuclear strikes against the US, provoke a Russo-Sino war, and threaten the world with an accidental launch**
 * David 99 –** Professor of Political Science at John Hopkins University [Steven R., “Saving America from the Coming Civil Wars,” //Foreign Affairs,// Jan/Feb, LN]

__ If internal war ____ does strike Russia, economic deterioration will be a prime cause __ __. __From 1989 to the present, the GDP has fallen by 50 percent. In a society … war. For __ Russia __ , America must reduce the chances that  __ civil __ __ conflict __ there __ will unleash nuclear weapons against the U ____ nited S tates. __

**Trans-Korean pipeline solves the environment and Asian wars** ** Asakura, 2k ** – Director of the Mitsubishi Research Insitute in Director of President Eco and Energy Corp (Kengo, 5/15/2000, Oil & Gas Journal, “Trans-Korean gas pipeline could help Asia energy security, environmental problems” l/n)

Trans-Korea line pluses Regarding advantages of Trans-Korean Peninsula Pipeline development, there are three aspects to focus… River area. It then follows that this project could afford opportunities to help make the greater concept of an "Asian energy community" come true.


 * Extinction**
 * Diner 94 ** (Military Law Review Winter 1994 143 Mil. L. Rev. 161 LENGTH: 30655 words ARTICLE: THE ARMY AND THE ENDANGERED SPECIES ACT: WHO'S ENDANGERING WHOM? NAME: MAJOR DAVID N. DINER BIO: Judge Advocate General's Corps, United States Army.)

[*173] Biologically diverse… removing, one by one, the rivets from an aircraft's wings, n80 [ hu]mankind may be edging closer to the abyss.

=Don’t go for Deterrence – 1AC=

**Contention 3: We dare you to go for deterrence**


 * Plan prompts South Korean conventional force modernization which allows it to deter Chinese aggression**
 * Bandow, 9 ** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to Reagan (6/16/09, Doug, “A Tattered Umbrella,” [], JMP)

South Korea’s foreign minister …spute into an international crisis.

**The plan makes China peaceful** ** Bandow, 9 ** – senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to Reagan (2/24/09, Doug, “Balancing Beijing,” EBSCO, JMP)

So Washington should exhibit … economic and geopolitical ambitions.


 * The Korean crisis is crushing U.S. global credibility and creating tensions with allies**
 * Bandow, 3 ** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (Summer 2003, Doug, Parameters, “Ending the Anachronistic Korea Commitment,” [], JMP)

Given the risks of war and problems... __well as to America, if Pyongyang does not desist .__