Miguel+and+Navin

=Affirmative=

Cuban reforms are inevitable but the loss of external investment risks economic and social collapse – offering normal trade relations is vital
Cuba under RaúlCastro has … private sector as well as SOEs.
 * Ashby 13,** Senior Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs. He served in the U.S. Commerce Department's International Trade Administration as Director of the Office of Mexico and the Caribbean and acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of Commerce for the Western Hemisphere(Timothy, "Preserving Stability in Cuba After Normalizing Relations with the United States – The Importance of Trading with State-Owned Enterprises" 3/29/13, Council on Hemispheric Affairs, http://www.coha.org/preserving-stability-in-cuba-timothy-ashby/)//AD

Cuban collapse destroys the global war on terror and makes conflicts in hotspots around the globe more likely
Regardless of the succession, under …manageable transition to post-Castro Cuba?
 * Gorrell, 5 -** Lieutenant Colonel, US Army, paper submitted for the USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT (Tim, “CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS?” [] **GWOT=Global War on Terrorism**

Hotspots all risk escalation to global nuclear war
David Bosco (a senior editor at Foreign Policy magazine) July 2006 “Forum: Keeping an eye peeled for World War III” [] The understanding that … China would respond militarily.

Independently, enforcing the embargo itself undermines the war on terror
Keeping the embargo … a new path for engaging Cuba.
 * Johnson, et al, 10** – Andy Johnson is a director in the national security program at The Third Way (“End the Embargo of Cuba”, The National Security Program, 9/6/10, [|http://content.thirdway.org/publications/326/Third_Way_Memo_-_End_the_Embargo_of_Cuba.pdf)//EX]

Greater focus and resources to counter-terrorism is vital – WMD terrorism risks are increasing
I have been struck by the response to what my liberal friends call President Obama ’s most significant speeches since taking office. They claim that he not only did not simply declare an end to the post-9/11 era. He also offered a vision of America's role in the world that he hopes could be one of his lasting legacies. The vision is one based upon liberal thoughts of law and order and criminal proceedings not one that is based upon national interests. He argues, they claim…them when they get them.
 * Clark, 13 -** Bruce Clarke is a retired Army Colonel with extensive strategic, operational and tactical experience. He is widely published on a myriad of strategic and operational subjects. Immediately prior to his retirement from the Army, Colonel Clarke was the Director of US National Security Studies at the US Army War College(Bruce, The Examiner, “ The end to the war on terrorism--really?” 5/28, [])

This risks extinction
Ayson 10 - Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 33.7, InformaWorld)//BB But these two nuclear worlds—… still meet with a devastating response.

The unconditional offer of normal trade relations boosts US-Cuban relations and fosters a stable transition
The option with the greatest possibility … benefit the nations of the Americas.
 * Koenig, 10** – US Army Colonel, paper submitted for a Masters in Strategic Studies at the US Army War College (Lance, “Time for a New Cuba Policy” [])

Now is key to a Cuban democratic transition
__FOR most of our history, the United States … reduced to a historical footnote.__
 * White 13** (Robert, Op-ed contributor to the New York Times, “After Chávez, a Chance to Rethink Relations with Cuba,” 3/7/13, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/08/opinion/after-chavez-hope-for-good-neighbors-in-latin-america.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0, MDM)

The embargo has empirically failed to solve structural democracy problems in Cuba
February 2012 marked the 50th Anniversary … __its mistakes in foreign relations. The Cuban embargo, a holdover from the Cold War era, is a prime example of outdated and ineffective policy and should be ended.__
 * Kentwired 12** (Kentwired, Kent State University peer-reviewed journal, “Guest column: Cuban Embargo has been 50 years of failure,” 3/12/12, http://kentwired.com/guest-column-cuban-embargo-has-been-50-years-of-failure, MDM)

Lifting the embargo key to democratization—existing reforms prove that they are open to transition.
__In the last five years____, the Cuban … U.S. embargo against the island in jeopardy.__
 * Lopez-Levy, 13** http://www.fpif.org/articles/a_post-castro_era_looms_for_cuba A Post-Castro Era Looms for Cuba By Arturo Lopez-Levy, April 17, 2013 Arturo Lopez-Levy is a PhD Candidate at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies of the University of Denver.//JH

Cuban populous wants democracy
Some __three-quarters of the__ __… didn't report a margin of error.__
 * UPI,** 20**11** (“Poll: Cubans want democracy”, 11/23, [])//AB

But Castro won’t allow a democracy – he’s insistent on socialism
Miami Herald 13 (The Miami Herald, “Cuba’s Raúl Castro’s proclaimed changes are no more than lipstick on a zombie,” 2/26/13, http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/02/26/3255364/cubas-raul-castros-proclaimed.html, accessed 6/28/13, IS) In Juan of the Dead, …Like we said, lipstick on a zombie.

Economic openness is the best way to encourage democracy—empirics prove
This paper flows from the traditional notion … __hegemony of the Cuban Communist Party.__
 * Feinberg, 11** http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2011/11/18-cuba-feinberg November 2011 Reaching Out: Cuba’s New Economy and the International Response By: Richard Feinberg Richard Feinberg is professor of international political economy at the Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies, University of California, San Diego. Feinberg served as special assistant to President Clinton and senior director of the National Security Council’s Office of Inter-American Affairs. He has held positions on the State Department's policy planning staff and worked as an international economist in the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of International Affairs.//JH

Stronger regionalism is vital to effective democracy promotion
The democratic outlook in the Americas is on balance positive, particularly when compared with previous periods and to the rest of the world. Free, competitive elections are regularly held and, happily, the massive human rights violations associated with earlier periods of authoritarian rule have passed. Nonetheless, there are fundamental challenges … would be an important first step.
 * Inter-American Dialogue 12 -** the Inter-American Dialogue is the leading US center for policy analysis, exchange, and communication on issues in Western Hemisphere affairs(“Remaking the Relationship The United States and Latin America”, April 2012, http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf)

Removing the embargo creates more interaction between the US and Cuba necessary for democracy
It's good politics. __Supporters of … points for democracy actually exist.__ __U.S. policy toward Cuba is__ .. . It has in the past.
 * Lloyd 10** (Delia, Senior Policy Manager at the BBC's international development charity, BBC Media Action and political correspondent for Politics Daily, “Ten Reasons to Lift the Cuba Embargo,” 8/24/10, [], MDM)
 * Cuba is key to broader Latin American democracy promotion**
 * Santons, 8**– chairman of the Cuban American National Foundation (Jorge Mas, “How to Win the Cuban American Vote,” Washington Post, 25 October 2008, [|http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2008-10-25/opinions/36910345_1_cuban-dissidents-travel-and-remittances-cuban-americans)//BI]

Democracy prevents extinction
This hardly exhausts the lists of threats … and prosperity can bebuilt.
 * Diamond, 95** - Hoover Institute Senior Fellow (Larry, “Promoting Democracy in the 1990s,” http://wwics.si.edu/subsites/ccpdc/pubs/di/fr.htm)

Criticisms of democracy are wrong – history proves democracies are more peaceful and stable than any other governmental form and democracy promotion empirically succeeds
Karatnycky 97 president of Freedom House, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Program on Transatlantic Relations and managing partner of Myrmidon Group LLC, a New York based consultancy that works with investors and corporations seeking entry into the complex emerging markets of Ukraine and Eastern Europe, founder and co-director of the Ukrainian-Jewish Encounter, frequent contributor to Foreign Affairs, Newsweek, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, the International Herald Tribune, and many other periodicals. He is co-author of three books and co-editor of eight books on Soviet and post-Soviet themes [Adrian Karatnycky, “Still the Bedrock of a Better World”, The Washington Post, December 29 1997, accessed via LexisNexis June 29 2013] SM Kaplan has written that democracies … ahead the world will be better still.

Cuba will say yes – it needs desperately needs new capital to aid economic reforms
For Cuba, the destitute economy …Cuban economic engine. 24
 * Iglesias, 12** – Commander, US Navy; Paper submitted for the Master of Strategic Studies Degree at the the US Army War College (Carlos, “United States Security Policy Implications of a Post-Fidel Cuba” []) **GOC = Government of Cuba, FAR = Cuban military**

Raul wants economic engagement with the US
In Cuba, Raúl Castro's historic … U.S. trade and investment. =Negative=
 * LeoGrande, 13** - professor in the Department of Government, School of Public Affairs at American University in Washington, D.C. (William, “The Danger of Dependence: Cuba's Foreign Policy After Chavez” World Politics Review, 4/2, [])

Round 2 (Vs. CPFJV ET--Nanotech)
1NC-Shunning, T-Solely Economic, IAEA CP, Neoliberalism K, Politics DA, Oil DA, Case Block-IAEA CP, Oil DA, Politics DA, Case 2NR-IAEA CP, Politics, Case

Round 3 (Vs. Hybrid Rock/Bell--Cuban Embargo)
1NC-Diplomatic CP, Imperialism K, Politics DA, Oil DA, Case Block-Diplomatic CP, Imperialism K,