saul-sam

**US leadership is unsustainable without a highly visible commitment to multilateralism**

 * Lake, 10–** Professor of Social Sciences, distinguished professor of political science at UC San Diego (David A., “Making America Safe for the World: Multilateralism and the Rehabilitation of US authority”, [])//NG

The safeguarding of... new world order.

**Lifting the embargo is a powerful commitment to multilat**

 * Burgsdorff, 9–** Ph. D in Political Science from Freiburg University, EU Fellow at the University of Miami (Sven Kühn von, “Problems and Opportunities for the Incoming Obama Administration”, [])//NG

6.3 How would the... // towards effective multilateralism. //

** The alternative to multilateralism is unilateral militarism – the plan establishes a model for hemispheric diplomacy that sustains US leadership **
Grandin 10 – teaches history at New York University and is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences (Greg, “Empire's Senescence: U.S. Policy in Latin America,” //New Labor Forum//, 19:1, Winter 2010, pg. 14-23)//SJF

__Washington’s relations with...__ the U.S.’s fall.

**__Only changing Cuba policy solves__ – it’s highly symbolic of the US attitude towards the entire region**
Sweig and Bustamante 13 - Nelson and David Rockefeller Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies and Director for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations; Ph.D. candidate in Latin American history at Yale University (Julia E. and Michael J, Cuba After Communism, Foreign Affairs, Jul/Aug2013, Vol. 92, Issue 4

The geopolitical context... as a result.

**Specifically Latin relations are key to effective leverage**
Speaking in Santiago, global strategic concerns.
 * Sabatini and Berger 12,** Christopher Sabatini is editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly and senior director of policy at Americas Society/Council of the Americas. Ryan Berger is a policy associate at the Americas Society/Council of the Americas(Christopher/Ryan, "Why the U.S. can't afford to ignore Latin America" 6/13/12, CNN/Global Public Square, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/06/13/why-the-u-s-cant-afford-to-ignore-latin-america/)//AD

The plan sends a clear signal to improve Latin American relations and reinvigorate the OAS

 * White, 13**-Senior fellow at the Center for International Policy and former U.S. ambassador to Paraguay and El Salvador (Robert, “After Chávez, a Chance to Rethink Relations With Cuba”, New York Times, 3/7/13, []

__FOR most of...__ a historical footnote.

**Reliance on unilateralism will collapse US leadership and cause global wars with weapons of mass destruction**

 * Montalván, 10** - a 17-year veteran of the U.S. Army including multiple combat tours in Iraq, master's of science from Columbia University's Graduate School of Journalism (Luis, “Multilateralism is Essential for Peace in the 21st Century” Huffington Post, 4/23, [])

Unilateralism is the... divide common ground.

**The plan specifically creates a credible model for multilateral conflict resolution**
Dickerson 10 – Lieutenant Colonel, US Army, paper submitted in fulfillment of a Master of Strategic Studies Degree at the US Army War College (Sergio M, “UNITED STATES SECURITY STRATEGY TOWARDS CUBA,” 1/14/10, http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a518053.pdf)//SJF

At the international... years to come.

**Multilat is also key to solve nuclear war with rising Asian powers**

 * Kugler, 6–** Professor of World Politics at Claremont Graduate University (Jacek, “The Asian Ascent: Opportunity for Peace or Precondition for War?”, [])//NG

Given the fundamental... a nuclear war

**Greatest scenario for escalation – nuclear states and trade lanes**
Landy ’2K, National Security Expert @ Knight Ridder, 3/10/ (Jonathan, Knight Ridder, lexis)

Few if any... the Commerce Department.

**Current Cuba policy wrecks OAS credibility – regional coalitions overtake it**
Reuters 12 (Brian Ellsworth, “Despite Obama charm, Americas summit boosts U.S. isolation,” 4/16/12, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/16/us-americas-summit-obama-idUSBRE83F0UD20120416)//SJF

(Reuters) - President Barack... on Latin America

**Cyber-attack coming in the Western Hemisphere – OAS legitimacy is key to coordination**
Caribbean News Now 6/25 (“OAS launches cyber security crisis management exercise,” 6/25/13, http://www.caribbeannewsnow.com/headline-OAS-launches-cyber-security-crisis-management-exercise-16500.html)//SJF

WASHINGTON, USA -- The... conclude on Tuesday.

**Cyberattacks cause extinction**
Andreasen 6/14 – national security consultant to the Nuclear Threat Initiative and its Nuclear Security Project (Steve, “Cyberwar’s Threat Does Not Justify a New Policy of Nuclear Deterrence,” 6/14/13, http://www.nti.org/analysis/opinions/cyberwars-threat-does-not-justify-new-policy-nuclear-deterrence/)//SJF

President Obama is... to limiting cyberwar.

**Cuban reforms are inevitable but the loss of external investment risks economic and social collapse – offering normal trade relations is vital**

 * Ashby, 13 -** Senior Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs. He served in the U.S. Commerce Department's International Trade Administration as Director of the Office of Mexico and the Caribbean and acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of Commerce for the Western Hemisphere (Timothy, "Preserving Stability in Cuba After Normalizing Relations with the United States – The Importance of Trading with State-Owned Enterprises" 3/29/13, Council on Hemispheric Affairs, http://www.coha.org/preserving-stability-in-cuba-timothy-ashby/)//AD

Cuba underRaúl... as SOEs.

**Cuban collapse destroys the global war on terror and makes conflicts in hotspots around the globe more likely**

 * Gorrell, 5 -** Lieutenant Colonel, US Army, paper submitted for the USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT (Tim, “CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS?” [] **GWOT=Global War on Terrorism**

Regardless of the... post-Castro Cuba?

**Terrorism risks extinction**
(Robert, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 33.7, InformaWorld)//BB
 * Ayson 10 ** - Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington

But these two... a devastating response

**Hotspots implicate Korea and the Middle East**
David Bosco (a senior editor at Foreign Policy magazine) July 2006 “Forum: Keeping an eye peeled for World War III” []

The understanding that... would respond militarily.

**North Korean war causes extinction**

 * Hayes and Hamel-Green, 10–** Professor of International Relations, RMIT University AND Professor of Arts, Education, and Human Development at Victoria University (Peter AND Michael, “"The Path Not Taken, The Way Still Open: Denuclearizing The Korean Peninsula And Northeast Asia,", http://www.japanfocus.org/-Michael-Hamel_Green/3267#sthash.AkKdViI5.dpuf)//NG

The consequences of... American nuclear hegemony.”8

**So does Middle East war**

 * Beck 5/28 **– Middle East Analyst at TheCommentator (Noah, “A nuclear Middle East is doomsday, 5/28/13, http://www.thecommentator.com/article/3633/a_nuclear_middle_east_is_doomsday)//SJF

As the Obama... is far worse.

**The unconditional offer of normal trade relations boosts US-Cuban relations and fosters a stable transition – prevents overstretch**

 * Koenig, 10** – US Army Colonel, paper submitted for a Masters in Strategic Studies at the US Army War College (Lance, “Time for a New Cuba Policy” [])

The option with of the Americas.

**The plan is key - Diaz-Canel won’t change relations**

 * Wilkinson, 13** – chair of the International Institute for the Study of Cuba (Stephen, “ What Will a New Generation of Leadership Mean for Cuba?” 3/6, [])

A: Stephen Wilkinson, chairman__...__ waste of time."

**Normal Trade Relations is vital – no trade occurs without it**

 * French, 9** – editor of and a frequent contributor to The Havana Note. She has led more than two dozen research trips to Cuba (Anya, “Options for Engagement A Resource Guide for Reforming U.S. Policy toward Cuba” [])

the path to... and regulatory changes.

**Unilateral lifting is vital - Cuba will use the condition to veto the plan**
http://www.independent.org/newsroom/article.asp?id=2496)
 * Ratliff, 9 -** Research Fellow at the Independent Institute and a member of the Board of Advisors of the Institute’s Center on Global Prosperity. He is also a Research Fellow and Curator of the Americas Collection at the Hoover Institution(William, “Why and How to Lift the U.S. Embargo on Cuba”, 5/7,

How has the... and counterproductive policy.

**Links are non-unique**
TheStateDepartment... with anti-Castro exiles.
 * Taylor, 13** (Guy Taylor, 7/4/13, “Private talks hint at change in U.S.-Cuba relationship”, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/jul/4/private-talks-hint-at-change-in-us-cuba-relationsh/print/)//EM