Tracy+&+Dorothy

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The shale boom is unsustainable—US reserves and productivity are decreasing rapidly
The speed and scope AND of estimated global oil resources.
 * Gopinath 9-3-13**—New Dehli economist writing for YaleGlobal Online (Deepak, “Shale Energy No Quick Solution,” YaleGlobal Online, http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/shale-energy-no-quick-solution)BC

Natural gas prices will keep increasing despite flat consumption—that impacts sectors throughout the economy
Schwartzel, 13 [Erich Schwartzel, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Expert on Fracking, visited Pappas’ Public Policy Class and was part of a round table discussion that consisted of Barry Rabe, professor at UM and others, really funny too, “U.S. report predicts rising natural gas prices in 2013-14”, []] The average price of natural AND from a single location.

The impact is price spikes
Maize, 12/1/12 [“Is Shale Gas Shallow or the Real Deal?”, Kennedy, Veteran Journalist¶ Kennedy Maize has spent the past 40 years working as a journalist, analyst, and manager in the private sector and federal government, with over 35 years of that focused on energy and environmental topics. Over that time, he has seen myriad examples of how group think, policy fads, and bad judgment can result in colossal failures, particularly in the field of atomic energy. Maize has seen, up close and personal, the demise of the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, the arrival of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the birth of the U.S. Department of Energy, the failures of nuclear flight, the hubris of atomic earthmoving, the boom and bust uranium market, the birth and death of breeder reactors, and the 60-year wandering in the wilderness of nuclear waste policy. After graduating from Penn State and graduate study at the University of Maryland, Kennedy Maize worked for newspapers in Pennsylvania, New York, and Virginia and the Associated Press in Baltimore. He then spent five years in management at the National Institute of Health and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission before taking a job covering energy, environment, and business topics for Editorial Research Reports, a division of Congressional Quarterly, where his work appeared in over 1,000 daily newspapers in the U.S. during the mid-to-late 1970s. Maize became a staff writer and editor at The Energy Daily, a preeminent energy trade paper, on March 28, 1979, the day the Three Mile Island accident began outside Harrisburg, Pa. Over more than 10 years at The Energy Daily, he covered the nuclear and coal industries, including stories involving the Clinch River Breeder Reactor, the U.S. Synthetic Fuels Corp., the Powder River Basin coal leasing scandal, and the Chernobyl explosion. In 1993, he founded The Electricity Daily, where he was the editor for 14 years, writing about changes in the electricity business, the rise and fall of Enron, the stagnation of the nuclear power business, and the arrival of market forces in the utility field. Since 2006, he has been an editor at POWER magazine, and the founder of MANAGING POWER magazine, where he has written about the Fukushima catastrophe, the emergence of shale gas and decline of coal, and the often ill-advised push for renewable electricity technologies¶ http://www.powermag.com/gas/Is-Shale-Gas-Shallow-or-the-Real-Deal_5188.html] In an interview with POWER AND much higher than now.”

Robust __domestic__ production is key to __manufacturing__ growth—that’s the basis for economic recovery
Duesterberg, 12 [Tom is Executive Director of the Manufacturing and Society in the 21st Century program at the Aspen Institute. He recently retired as President and CEO of The Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, an economic research and executive education organization based in Arlington, Virginia with more than 500 manufacturing firms as members. Previous positions include: Director of the Washington Office of The Hudson Institute, Assistant Secretary for International Economic Policy at the U.S. Department of Commerce, chief of staff to two members of Congress, and associate instructor at Stanford University. His commentary and analysis on manufacturing, economic performance, globalization, and related policy issues can be found in major news outlets. He holds a B.A. degree from Princeton and M. A. and Ph.D. degrees from Indiana University, “Impact of the Energy Boom on US Manufacturing”, []] The manufacturing sector AND renewables than the transportation sector.

__Maintaining low prices__ through adequate supply is key to lock in a massive economic benefit—that __galvanizes key industries__
Pirog and Ratner 12- *Energy specialist in the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies International Economics Program, **specialist in energy policy for the Congressional Research Service (Robert and Michael, “Natural Gas in the U.S. Economy: Opportunities for Growth” Congressional News Service, http://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42814.pdf)//WK Expanded supply, coupled with AND more market-oriented method.

Natural gas production directly correlates with growth and innovation—unique spillover effects
Carey, 12/13/12 [Julie M, Julie M. Carey is an energy economist with Navigant Economics who provides consulting and testifying services Navigant’s unconventional oil and gas offerings include advisory services for strategic business decision analysis, construction risk management, economic and antitrust analyses, investment banking and restructuring advisory services, and expert services for disputes and investigations, “How Unconventional Oil And Gas Is Supercharging The U.S. Economy”, http://www.forbes.com/sites/energysource/2012/12/13/how-unconventional-oil-and-gas-is-transforming-the-u-s-economy/] It’s an exciting time to be in AND (including both direct and indirect jobs).

Domestic manufacturing is key to overall __resilience__
Ettlinger, 11 [Michael, Vice President for Economic Policy at the Center for ¶ American Progress Prior to joining the Center, he spent six years at the Economic ¶ Policy Institute directing the Economic Analysis and Research Network. ¶ Previously, he was tax policy director for Citizens for Tax Justice and the Institute ¶ on Taxation and Economic Policy for 11 years. He has also served on the staff of ¶ the New York State Assembly. “The Importance and Promise¶ of American Manufacturing Why It Matters if We Make It in America and Where We Stand Today”, http://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/issues/2011/04/pdf/manufacturing.pdf] Manufacturing is critically important AND embargoes to natural disasters.

Economic collapse causes competition for resources and instability that escalates and goes nuclear
Harris and Burrows, 9 – *counselor in the National Intelligence Council, the principal drafter of Global Trends 2025, **member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis”, Washington Quarterly, http://www.twq.com/09april/docs/09apr_burrows.pdf) Increased Potential for Global Conflict Of course, the report encompasses AND between states in a more dog-eat-dog world.

Our impact has a strong statistical basis – rally around the flag
Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises,” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-214 Less intuitive is how periods of economic AND economic-security debate and deserves more attention.

Low natural gas prices key to domestic steel manufacturing
James 12- Correspondent for Reuters (Steve, “Analysis: Steelmakers eye gas to cut costs, drive exports”, Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/16/us-steel-gas-idUSBRE82F12Y20120316)//WK America's steel industry, for decades AND a competitive edge in the 21st Century.

Low steel prices are the vital internal link to primacy
AISI et al. 7- (*American Iron and Steel Institute, **Specialty Steel Industry of North America,** *Steel Manufacturers Association, Steel Manufacturer’s Association, *United Steel Workers, “Steel and the National Defense”, http://www.ssina.com/news/releases/pdf_releases/steel_and_national_defense_0107.pdf)//WK This analysis presented by the U.S. AND times and extended construction schedules.

Hegemony solves conflict escalation and great power war
Brooks, et al, 13 [Don't Come Home, America: The Case against Retrenchment Stephen G. Brooks (bio), [|G. John Ikenberry] (bio) and William C. Wohlforth (bio), Stephen G. Brooks; G. John Ikenberry and William C. Wohlforth STEPHEN G. BROOKS is Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College. G. JOHN IKENBERRY is Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University and Global Eminence Scholar at Kyung Hee University in Seoul. WILLIAM C. WOHLFORTH is Daniel Webster Professor of Government at Dartmouth College, [|International Security] Volume 37, Number 3, Winter 2012, p. Project Muse] Assessing the Security Benefits AND pushes cooperation toward U.S. preferences.

CO2 emissions will run away in the status quo—natural gas is the only effective alternative to coal—U.S. development is modeled globally and prevents extinction
Riley 8/13 —BA, LL.M., PhD, professor of energy law at The City Law School at City University London (Alan, 8/13/12, “Shale Gas to the Climate Rescue,” http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/14/opinion/shale-gas-to-the-climate-rescue.html, RBatra) The battle against runaway climate AND over the short and medium term.

And, natural gas acts as a bridge fuel—spurring broad renewable development
Ju 12 – Anne Ju (senior science writer for the Cornell Chronicle) July 17, 2012 “Study Proves Natural Gas Can Bridge the Gap to a Clean Energy Economy” [] Natural gas is a good transition AND no matter how fast the transition.”

And, that means only the plan solves global emissions
Riley, 12 [August, Alan Riley is a professor of energy law at The City Law School at City University London, “Shale Gas to the Climate Rescue”, []] By developing shale gas as a AND and into a fully renewable economy.

The plan solves warming – most recent and comprehensive study
Levi, 1/3/13 [Climate consequences of natural gas as a bridge fuel ¶ Michael Levi, David M. Rubenstein Senior Fellow for Energy and the Environment and Director of the Program on Energy Security and Climate Change, Climate Consequences of Natural Gas As a Bridge Fuel, []] 5 Conclusions and discussion¶ Beginning with well known stabilization AND might not have superior¶ climate outcomes.¶

OCS expansion key to solve warming – the impact is extinction
Lamborn, 08 [Path of wisdom: Open up Outer Continental Shelf to gas drilling, House Representative Doug Republican Colorado, []] Many years ago that great philosopher Woody AND moon rising / I see trouble on the way.”

Extinction—GHG emissions are the proximate cause
Costello 11 –, Anthony, Institute for Global Health, University College London, Mark Maslin, Department of Geography, University College London, Hugh Montgomery, Institute for Human Health and Performance, University College London, Anne M. Johnson, Institute for Global Health, University College London, Paul Ekins, Energy Institute, University College London [“Global health and climate change: moving from denial and catastrophic fatalism to positive action” May 2011 vol. 369 no. 1942 1866-1882 Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society] Advocacy about the health consequences AND many environments uninhabitable.

OCS restrictions must be lifted but federal action is key – Congress has to fund DOI leasing projects
Lieberman 08 – senior policy analyst for Energy and Environment for the Heritage Foundation (Ben, “Listing the Offshore Drilling Ban: A Positive Step in the Fight against High Energy Prices”, The Heritage Foundation, 7/14/2008, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2008/07/lifting-the-offshore-drilling-ban-a-positive-step-in-the-fight-against-high-energy-prices)//BD Washington must do something AND Thus far, none of these efforts has been successful.

85% of gas is off limits now
Luthi, 11/9/12 [Luthi is the president of the National Ocean Industry Association, representing more than 275 companies engaged in all aspects of the exploration and production of both traditional and renewable energy resources on the nation’s outer continental shelf, “Let's find agreement on new offshore access”, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/energy-a-environment/267089-lets-find-agreement-on-new-offshore-access] Now that the election is (finally) behind us, AND because we’re not allowed to go look.

And, the plan creates certainty for offshore production—balances supply
Griles 3 [Lisa, Deputy Secretary, Department of the Interior, “Energy Production on Federal Lands,” Hearing before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, United States Senate] Mr. GRILES. America’s public lands AND so they can have certainty about where to go.

And, that sustains low prices and ensures adequate supply
Hastings, 12 [House Representative Doc, Republican Washington, President Obama's offshore drilling plan must be replaced, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/energy-a-environment/239529-president-obamas-offshore-drilling-plan-must-be-replaced] Though President Obama uses lofty AND strengthen America’s economy.

Nearly 100 new projects are capable of development
Paul Hillegeist et al (President and COO at Quest Offshore Resources, Inc, Sean Shafer, Project Director, Andrew Jackson, Project Manager, Leslie Cook, Senior Research Consultant) December 2011 “The State of the Offshore U.S. Oil and Gas Industry” http://energytomorrow.org/images/uploads/Quest_2011_December_29_Final.pdf If drilling permits going AND and government revenue.

Otherwise, restrictions crush predictability and timing of projects
Curry L. Hagerty (Specialist in Energy and Natural Resources Policy at the Congressional Research Service) June 15, 2010 “Outer Continental Shelf Moratoria on Oil and Gas Development” http://crs.ncseonline.org/nle/crsreports/10Jul/R41132.pdf One legacy of congressional AND leasing prohibitions

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Blocks: Russian SOI/Anthro K/Dedev Russian SOI/Ptx States CP/Ptx Courts CP/China DA/Ptx/Russian Energy Ptx/T-its Trade off DA/ T mil Framework/Binaries K/Anthro

2NRs: Ptx (ExIm and Midterms) T-its Russian SOI China Coal Anthro K Dedev Framework/Binaries Cutters DA