Alex+and+Liam


 * __Case Overview__**
 * Contention one - no disads
 * Contention two - advantages
 * Russia
 * Regionalism
 * CBWs
 * Contention three - solvency


 * First, Cheonan sinking makes conflict inevitable**
 * Bandow, 10** – senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to Reagan (4/18/10, Doug, “Let the Koreans Take Care of the Koreas,” [], JMP)

[], JMP)
 * Second, North Korea’s declining economy makes more attacks inevitable**
 * Reuters, 10** (3/17/10, Jon Herskovitz, “North Korea may turn more menacing but options limited,”

**And, we control uniqueness- tensions are at the highest in 60 years** **AFP, 10** - (5/27/10, Agence France Presse, “Koreas On Collision Course, Big Powers Must Step In: Experts”, http://www.lexisnexis.com)


 * Additionally, troop withdrawal inevitable- it’s a question of before or after the war**
 * Printz and Doran** 0**6** (Scott A., Lieutenant Colonel, and George Doran, Project Adviser, USAWC Strategy Research Project, “A U.S Military Presence in a Post-Unified Korea: Is it Required?”, []) ZParks


 * The U.S. response to bolster deterrence will just increase provocations and make miscalculation more likely**
 * Armstrong, 10 –** Professor of history and director of the Center for Korean Research at Columbia University.. (Charles, 5/26/10, CNN, “The Korean War never ended” [])

**Finally, your takeouts don’t apply- risk of miscalc is astronomically high** **AFP, 10** (5/27/10, Agence France Presse, “Koreas On Collision Course, Big Powers Must Step In: Experts”, http://www.lexisnexis.com)

THUS THE PLAN: The United States federal government should implement a phased withdrawal of its ground troops in the Republic of Korea.


 * Advantage One is: in Soviet Russia…**
 * U.S. military concessions toward North Korea are critical to break the deadlock in the six party talks. This will provide a framework to re-establish US-Russian relations, stabilize the peninsula, and allow Russia to become a major economic player in the region.**
 * Toloraya, 08** – diplomat with the rank of Minister and Director of Korean Programs at IMEMO, the top Russian Foreign Ministry official in charge of the Korean peninsula, Doctor of Economy and a Full Professor degree in Oriental Studies (Georgy, //Asian Perspective,// “**THE SIX PARTY TALKS: A RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE”, ProQuest)**

**Relations key to solve accidental nuclear war** **Cohen 10**—prof, Russian Studies and History, NYU. Prof emeritus, Princeton (Stephen, US-Russian Relations in an Age of American Triumphalism: An Interview with Stephen F. Cohen, 25 May 2010, http://www.thenation.com/article/us-russian-relations-age-american-triumphalism-interview-stephen-f-cohen, AMiles)

**Independently, peaceful US overtures toward Korea is critical to break the deadlock in Russian-DPRK relations and pave the way for a massive expansion of renewed economic ties on the peninsula** **Joo, 09** – Professor of Political Science at the University of Michigan (April 09, Seung-Horris, “Moscow–Pyongyang Relations under Kim Jong-il: High Hopes and Sober Reality”)

Institute of State Governance and the Yonsei Leadership Center (Nov/Dec, Seung Ham Yang, Woosang Kim, and Yongho Kim, “RUSSO-NORTH KOREAN RELATIONS IN THE 2000S”, Proquest)
 * These increased ties are key to creating a trans-Siberian railroad that revitalizes the Asian and Russian economies**
 * Yang** **et al. 04**- Yang is Professor of Political Science at Yonsei University in Seoul, Korea, and Director of the


 * A Russian economic collapse will trigger nuclear strikes against the US, provoke a Russo-Sino war, and threaten the world with an accidental launch**
 * David 99 –** Professor of Political Science at John Hopkins University [Steven R., “Saving America from the Coming Civil Wars,” //Foreign Affairs,// Jan/Feb, LN]


 * Advantage Two is: group hug**
 * Bilateral policies fail – regionalism key to East Asian stability**
 * Francis, 06** – former Australian Ambassador to Croatia and fellow at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University from 05-06 (Fall 2006, Neil, Harvard International Review, “For an East Asian Union: Rethinking Asia's Cold War Alliances,” [], JMP)

**Regionalism is currently halfhearted – only a __clear sign__ of U.S. withdrawal can motivate __sustainable__ regional security cooperation** **Carpenter and Bandow 4** **-** * Vice President of Defense and Foreign Studies at the Cato Institute, AND **Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute** (**Ted Galen Carpenter, 12/2004, The Korean Conundrum: America’s Troubled Relations With North and South Korea, pg 160-161)DR**

Specially, withdrawal will reduce Korea’s veto of multilateral security mechanisms – yielding a peace system on the peninsula that prevents great power war Lee, 09 **– Seoul National University (December 2009, Geun, “The Nexus between Korea’s Regional Security Options and Domestic Politics,” [|www.cfr.org], JMP)**

Regionalism key to solve territorial disputes and a litany of other impacts Nanto, 08 **– Specialist in Industry and Trade Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division for Congressional Research Services (1/4, “East Asian Regional Architecture: New Economic and Security Arrangements and U.S. Policy,” www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33653.pdf)**

Territorial disputes cause World War three Waldron, 97 **– professor of strategy and policy at the U.S. Naval War College and an associate of the Fairbank Center for East Asian Research at Harvard (March 1997, Arthur, Commentary, “How Not to Deal with China,” EBSCO)**

__**Advantage Three is the uh-oh**__ US ground forces would force desperate CBW use in a war SCHNEIDER 1997 **(Barry, Director of the USAF Counterproliferation Center at Air University, Maxwell AFB, Alabama, and an Associate Professor of International Relations in the Department of Future Conflict Studies at the U.S. Air War College., Future War and Counterproliferation, 70-71) Calum**

North Korean bioweapon use would __spread globally__ within __six weeks__ – most likely scenario Levy, 07 **(6-8-07, Janet Ellen, The American Thinking, “The Threat of Bioweapons,” [], JMP)**

Impact is extinction Ochs 02 **– MA in Natural Resource Management from Rutgers University and Naturalist at Grand Teton National Park [Richard, “BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS MUST BE ABOLISHED IMMEDIATELY,” Jun 9, []]**

CBWs would force US nuclear retaliation SCHNEIDER 1997 **(Barry, Director of the USAF Counterproliferation Center at Air University, Maxwell AFB, Alabama, and an Associate Professor of International Relations in the Department of Future Conflict Studies at the U.S. Air War College., Future War and Counterproliferation, 72-73) Calum**

Retaliation causes global nuclear war GIZEWSKI 1996 **(Peter, Senior Associate, Peace and Conflict Studies Programme, University of Toronto, International Journal, Summer, p. 400) Calum**

This maintains deterrence TANNENWALD 2005 **(Nina, Director of the International Relations Program and Joukowsky Family Research Assistant Professor at the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University, International Security, Spring) Calum**

Independently, CBW use would draw in both the US and China into the war, and push Taiwan to declare independence Watcher, 10 (5/27/10, Paul Watcher, writer for aol. http://www.aolnews.com/world/article/south-korea-vs-north-korea-what-another-korean-war-would-look-like/19491485)

(Ching Cheong, The Straits Times, “No one gains in war over Taiwan,” 6-25-2000, Lexis-Nexis Universe)
 * Extinction**
 * Cheong, 2K** – East Asia Correspondent


 * Contention Three is solvency -**


 * Phased withdrawal solves**
 * Carpenter, 09** – vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute (Ted Galen, CATO Handbook for Congress, 7th Edition, “54. East Asian Security Commitments,” [], JMP)


 * Withdrawing __ground troops__ solves – stops North Korea from probing U.S. weakness to draw our forces into a wider conflict. Air and naval installations will maintain power projection capabilities. Stanton, 10** – U.S. Army Judge Advocate in Korea from 98-02 and practicing attorney in Washington, D.C. (4/12/10, Joshua, The New Ledger, “It's Time for the U.S. Army to Leave Korea,” [], JMP)


 * __Withdrawing Troops solves-__ presence guarantees involvement and North Korean provocations**
 * Hornberger, 09** – founder and president of The Future of Freedom Foundation (6/16/09, Jacob G., “Pull Out of Korea (and Everywhere Else)” [], JMP)