Daniel+Joseph+and+Chase+Elsner

=Any questions email elsnercm@gmail.com (neg) or danielej2k@gmail.com (aff)= = = =2NR's= T - Engagement must be QPQ T - Should/USFG/With T - Engagement must be unconditional Diamond Dust Cp and case turns Appeasement DA Neolib K Balancing Cp and Xi bad Allied prolif DA and No First Use Cp

=1NC's= T - non military T - With T - engagement must be a QPQ T - engagement must be unconditional T - Should/USFG/.With Neolib K Cap K Spanos K Sustainibility K Japan DA Appeasement DA Xi good DA Xi Bad DA Elections DA Rust belt elections DA India Relations DA Russia Nationalism DA IMF Cp balancing and diamond dust Cp balancing and bilateral warming cooperation Cp Balancing Cp - Won't read No First Use Cp Diamond Dust Cp

=1AC S&ED=

Plan
====The United States federal government should diplomatically engage the People's Republic of China by offering to indefinitely extend an include higher-level officials and incorporate the issue of joint African health assistance into discussions at the Strategic And Economic Dialogue.====

Scheduling the next round now signals commitment and allows for changes making for more effective discussions

 * Reade 2016** - Senior Associate with the Freeman chair in China Studies @ CSIS

Claire, "The U.S.-China S&ED: Time to Tinker, Not to Toss," Jun 27, https://www.csis.org/analysis/us-china-sed-time-tinker-not-toss The last U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED AND impressive S&ED gathering, while increasing the effectiveness of the effort.

Upgrading the SED to include presidential dialogue sets a clear agenda and builds crisis management mechanisms

 * Rudd 2015** - Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs & Former Prime Minister, Australia

Kevin, "US-China 21: The Future of US-China Relations Under Xi Jinping," belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Summary%20Report%20US-China%2021.pdf Beyond the two countries' embassies, the principal mechanism for managing the breadth and depth AND 周恩来). This is now necessary because the stakes today are even higher.

The eighth and final round of Strategic and Economic Dialogue concluded in June, opening channels for communication and cooperation on a litany of issues

 * Shen 2016** - professor and Vice Dean at the Institute of International Studies, Fudan University

Dingli, "Strategic Dialogue Advances Partnership, with a Limit," Jun 14, www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/strategic-dialogue-advances-partnership-with-a-limit/ China and the US have just conducted their eighth round of Strategic and Economic Dialogue AND was rich in ideological confrontation but lacked economic and people-based cooperation.

Diplomacy is the only explanatory force behind the global order – multiple theoretical perspectives and empirics confirm that we control the internal link to all global crises
Because it rests on open, nondiscriminatory debate, and the routine exchange of viewpoints AND that further strengthen the impetus for multilateral dialog. Pg. 21-23
 * Pouliot 11**—Professor of Poli Sci @ McGill University [Vincent Pouliot, "Multilateralism as an End in Itself," International Studies Perspectives (2011) 12, 18–26]

Only having open channels of communication can prevent this version of the Thucydides Trap from going nuclear

 * Lam Peng Er 2016** - Senior Research Fellow, East Asian Institute

"China, the United States, Alliances, and War: Avoiding the Thucydides Trap?," Asian Affairs: An American Review Volume 43, Issue 2, 2016, p. 36-36 That the intelligentsia in the United States and China openly ponder and hold a conversation AND will place tremendous stress on crisis management between the United States and China.


 * ====An extension of S&ED that includes higher level officials ensures that mistrust stays in check ====**
 * Dai 2016** - Former State Councilor of China

Bingguo, "On Building a New Model of Major-Country Relations Between China and the United States," Jun 20, www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjb_663304/zzjg_663340/bmdyzs_664814/xwlb_664816/t1350752.shtml For the past decades, China and the US have basically sticked to the path AND The path will be bumpy, but it leads to a bright future.

Expanding the S&ED to include global health improves coordination in Africa and builds a platform for additional cooperation opportunities
(Matthew; Bryan Liang, Professor of Anesthesiology and Director of the San Diego Center for Patient Safety at the University of California San Diego School of Medicine and Medical Director with the Program on Health Policy & Law at the University of California San Diego; Braden Hale, Program Director at the Department of Defense HIV/AIDS Prevention Program, Naval Health Research Center; Thomas Novotny, Professor of Epidemiology and Biostatistics and Co-Director at the SDSU/UCSD Joint Doctorate in Public Health, "China's Role in Global Health Diplomacy: Designing Expanded U.S. Partnership for Health System Strengthening in Africa," 8/17/13, http://blogs.shu.edu/ghg/files/2014/02/GHGJ_62_149-166_BROWN_ET_AL.pdf)//RP The U.S.-China Strategic Economic Dialogue (S&ED) is AND nation's response and help improve coordination with African nations around public health issues.
 * Brown et al. 13 –** Senior Advisor at the Department of Health and Human Services, Office of Global Affairs

Strategic mistrust is fueling multiple flashpoints within the region – high level talks are necessary to avoid escalation

 * Zhao 2015** - Professor and Director of the Center for China–US Cooperation at Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver

Suisheng, "A New Model of Big Power Relations? China–US strategic rivalry and balance of power in the Asia–Pacific," Journal of Contemporary China Volume 24, Issue 93, 2015, p 377-397 The Asia–Pacific region has become a test ground to determine whether China and AND become one of the most dangerous flashpoints in the twenty-first century.

S&ED creates the channels necessary to ensure cooperation in moments tension

 * Garrison 2016** – Director of International Studies @ University of Wyoming

Jean and Marc Wall, "The Rise of Hedging and Regionalism: An Explanation and Evaluation of President Obama's China Policy," Asian Affairs: An American Review Volume 43, Issue 2, 2016, p 47-63 With each flare-up in tensions, cooler heads in both capitals stepped in AND , no-nonsense approach to maintain overall stability and manage ongoing tensions.

Top level dialogue is necessary to execute a strategy of shame against salami slicing

 * Lundy 2016** - policy engagement advisor at the ANU's National Security College

Derek, "How to respond to China's 'salami tactics' in South China Sea," Jul 11, www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2016/07/11/How-to-respond-to-Chinas-salami-tactics-in-South-China-Sea.aspx The other tricky problem in the South China Sea has been China's use of 'salami AND crises with the idea of pushing conflict back towards a lessening of tensions.

Absent better relations, risk of U.S.-Sino war in a peripheral, resource-rich region like Africa or other hotspots is high
Because the economies of both the United States and China depend heavily on imported energy AND security dilemma, wherein reciprocation of antagonistic actions may lead to war.30
 * Hatemi 07 - Professor at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln (Peter, "Oil and Conflict in Sino-American Relations," China Security, Summer, Volume 3, Number 3)**

U.S.-Sino cooperation on public health spills over and creates a strategic buffer that solves political tensions
Concerning the second question, it should be noted that in certain sensitive and vital AND make use of cooperation to strengthen their strategic buffering rather than fierce rivalry.
 * Chenghao and Wang 15**- Sun, Lei Assistant Research Fellow, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations ("Intensifying U.S.-China Rivalry in Africa Calls for Sensible Solutions," 12/10/15, http://www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/strengthened-china-africa-cooperation-a-possible-escalation-of-china-u-s-competition/)//MU

Now is a unique moment – China is likely to use force post the Hague ruling in fishing disputes

 * Johnson 2016** - senior reporter covering energy for Foreign Policy

Keith, "Can Indonesia Afford a Fish War with China?," Jul 8, foreignpolicy.com/2016/07/08/can-indonesia-afford-a-fish-war-with-china/ In recent years, Indonesia has tried to stay above the fray as other countries AND to push back," Medeiros said, "that affects China's strategic calculation."

This Maritime Militia will spark a war that escalates

 * Chao 2016** - international relations doctoral student (Mellon Ethnopolitics Fellow) in Political Science @ UPenn

Brian C, "Coast Guards Could Accidentally Spark War in the South China S," Jun 28, nationalinterest.org/feature/coast-guards-could-accidentally-spark-war-the-south-china-16766?page=show Chinese activities in the China Seas over the past few years have caused growing consternation AND regardless of whether the hulls are battleship grey or coast-guard white.

Containment drives China to fracture US alliances and risks nuclear war – only cooperation can solve

 * Ilamn 2016** - Currently works in Pacivis (Global Civil Society Research Center) of U of Indonesia

Zidy, "Is the South China Sea the Stage for the Next World War?," Jul 3, nationalinterest.org/feature/the-south-china-sea-the-stage-the-next-world-war-16833?page=show What is happening today is that China has gathered enough power and is becoming powerful AND States to reverse the negative trend, she surely has much to do.

U.S.-Sino Cold War is on the verge of becoming a hot war in Africa
Juba, South Sudan - Is this country the first hot battlefield in a new AND , nowhere as stark as in the world's newest nation, South Sudan.
 * Turse 15**- is the managing editor of TomDispatch.com and a fellow at the Nation Institute (Nick "Foreign Policy in Focus" Aug 5, 2014 http://search.proquest.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/docview/1553699443/4033AD74B1EC44E3PQ/1?accountid=14667\)//MU

Conventional war goes nuclear
Conventional Counterforce as a Pathway to Nuclear Escalation Conventional War between the United States AND Similarly, the United States may cross Chinese nuclear tripwires without realizing it.
 * Talmadge 16 – Assistant Professor George Washington University Political Science and International Affairs** (Caitlin, February, Institute for Security and Conflict Studies, "Preventing Nuclear Escalation in U.S.–China Conflict," https://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/ default/files/ china_policy_brief_talmadge_0.pdf, accessed 7/3/16)//GE

The global economy is weak – and central banks are running out of tricks to keep it from collapsing

 * Bartholomeusz 7/11** - Business Spectator Columnist for The Australian Business Review

Stephen, "A trap for the global economy?," www.theaustralian.com.au/business/a-trap-for-the-global-economy/news-story/6e438ea2280cc55328742f8bfe5fe001 The challenges facing Bank of England Governor Mark Carney as he responds to the Brexit AND discernible positive effects, the central banks would have little capacity to respond.

Brexit causes uncertainty the global economy, especially for China – US-China S&ED is key to solve
US-China Business Council President John Frisbie made the following statements on Brexit's impact AND the S&ED and other engagement pay off at times like these."
 * Frisbie 16** (John, USCBC president, press release, The US-China Business Council (USCBC) is a private, nonpartisan, nonprofit organization of roughly 220 American companies that do business with China. For over four decades, USCBC has provided unmatched information, advisory, advocacy, and program services to its membership. Through its offices in Washington, DC; Beijing; and Shanghai, USCBC is uniquely positioned to serve its members' interests in the United States and China, 6/7/16, https://www.uschina.org/media/press/us-china-business-council-president-john-frisbie-released-following-comments-upon-close)//ml

S&ED is the only forum for officials from both countries to work on stabilizing the global economy while maintaining US economic leadership

 * Lew 2016** - U.S. Secretary of the Treasury

Jack, "America and the Global Economy: The Case for US Leadership," Foreign Affairs, May/June Issue The relationship between the United States and China, the world's two largest economies, AND even stronger platform for navigating the economic and financial landscape of the future.

Second, Even if progress isn't made, it sends a perception that calms economic turmoil

 * Hormats 2015** - is vice chairman at Kissinger Associates and former U.S. under secretary of state for economic growth, energy, and the environment

Robert D, "On Economic Fronts, the U.S. and China Are Stronger Together," Sep 21, foreignpolicy.com/2015/09/21/on-economic-fronts-the-u-s-and-china-are-stronger-together-xi-jinping-visit/ The broader point here is not to suggest that the leaders dissect or debate the AND avoid one country reacting to a misreading of the other's policies or intentions.

S&ED key to high-level dialogues implement structural reforms that allow for sustained Chinese growth and grow the global economy
Continued high-level engagement between the two economies on economic affairs should be an AND China itself but also the U.S. and the world economy.
 * Prasad 9** (Eswar, holds the New Century Chair in International Trade and Economics, Tolani Senior Professor of Trade Policy at Cornell University and a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, previously head of the Financial Studies Division and the China Division at the IMF, "The Effect of the Crisis on the U.S.-China Economic Relationship", Brookings Institute, 2/17/2009, http://www.brookings.edu/research/testimony/2009/02/17-chinas-economy-prasad)//ml

A strong economy solves a host of structural issues, like food security and climate change

 * Lew 2016** - U.S. Secretary of the Treasury

Jack, "America and the Global Economy: The Case for US Leadership," Foreign Affairs, May/June Issue But the difficulty in securing approval should not have been a complete surprise. The AND in the IMF, the World Bank, and the G-20.

And it prevents war from breaking out
Leading American financial analyst Warren Pollock has warned that the US will slip into the AND They have their heads in their asses in the Pentagon," he added.
 * Kumar '15** (Kalyan Kumar is a staff writer for the Australian branch of the International Business Times, 11/17/15, "Economic collapse of big economies like US and China may trigger war, says financial analyst Warren Pollock" http://www.ibtimes.com.au/economic-collapse-big-economies-us-china-may-trigger-war-says-financial-analyst-warren-pollock Poetic Justice)

A collapsed Chinese economy is one that invites belligerence and causes war

 * Dobell 2016** - Journalism Fellow at the Lowy Institute

Graeme, "The Biggest China 'Threat': War in the South China Sea or Economic Meltdown?," Jul 5, nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-biggest-china-threat-war-the-south-china-sea-or-economic-16843?page=show If China's future course is the vital question, the answers in economy-world AND the South China Sea stays closer to the teacup end of the scale.

1AC Arctic
====The United States federal government should offer to fully support and pursue full member status in the Arctic Council for China if China agrees to participate in bilateral cooperative agreements regarding Arctic scientific research and environmental policy issues.====

The Advantage is co-op –
Britain leaving the EU could signal a new shift away from multilateralism as leaders around AND does not play a constructive role in multilateral institutions, including the EU.
 * ====Brexit was just the "tip of the iceberg" – multilateralism is collapsing, but demonstrated political will can revive it ====**
 * Wurf, 16**—Hannah, Research Associate working in the G20 Studies Centre at the Lowy Institute. Her research interests are global governance and multilateralism, June 9, Online: "http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2016/06/09/What-the-UK-needs-now-is-more-multilateralism-not-less.aspx", Article: "What the UK needs now is more multilateralism, not less" Accessed on: 06-24-16//AWW

China won't back Arctic warming initiatives, decking US-China warming cooperation – supporting Beijing's Arctic status is key
On Sunday and Monday, foreign ministers and other international leaders met in Anchorage, AND Paris summit, and for U.S.-China cooperation in general.
 * Tiezzi, 15**—Shannon, Editor at The Diplomat, previously served as a research associate at the U.S.-China Policy Foundation, MA @ Harvard, also studied at Tsinghua University in Beijing. "Why Did China Opt Out of the Arctic Climate Change Statement?" The Diplomat, Sept 1, http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/why-did-china-opt-out-of-the-arctic-climate-change-statement/ —br

Cooperation is on the brink – China's carefully assessing US signals of commitment
The Supreme Court's surprise decision Tuesday to halt the carrying out of President Obama's climate AND States has long been the chief obstacle to meaningful global climate change agreements.
 * Davenport, 16**—Coral, covers energy and climate change policy at The New York Times, previously a fellow with the Metcalf Institute for Marine and Environmental Reporting and covered energy and the environment for National Journal, Politico, and Congressional Quarterly. "Supreme Court's Blow to Emissions Efforts May Imperil Paris Climate Accord," New York Times (NYT), Feb 10, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/11/us/politics/carbon-emissions-paris-climate-accord.html —br

US-China climate cooperation facilitates mitigation and adaptation strategies globally – solves extinction
(Xiaoyu, "China-US Cooperation: Key to the Global Future," China Institute of International Studies, http://www.ciis.org.cn/english/2014-01/13/content_6606656.htm) • Cooperation on climate change mitigation, adaptation, and consequence management. China- AND US businesses as well as lower costs and widely disseminate clean energy technologies.
 * Li 14** – MA in Global Studies @ U Denver, Int'l Affairs Coordinator @ UN

US-China cooperation is key – they're the two largest emitters and drive multilateral action
The Paris Summit in December 2015 is being seen as the "last chance" AND government retreats from efforts to curb emissions in favor of stabilizing economic growth.
 * Hongzhou, 15**—Zhang, Associate Research Fellow with the China Programme @ S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) at Nanyang Technological University (Singapore). "China-US Climate Change Cooperation: Beyond Energy," The Diplomat, Oct 13, http://thediplomat.com/2015/10/china-us-climate-change-cooperation-beyond-energy/ —br

The plan revives US-China cooperation by spurring highly-visible, lasting changes
Fifth, joint Arctic marine research is an arena with much promise. Joint oceanographic AND within their already existing dialogue and in international organizations including the Arctic Council.
 * Slayton and Brigham, 15**—David Slayton is research fellow, co-chair and executive director of the Arctic Security Initiative at Stanford University's Hoover Institution. Lawson W. Brigham is distinguished professor of geography and Arctic policy at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, a fellow at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy's Center for Arctic Study & Policy, and a member of Hoover's Arctic Security Initiative. "Strengthen Arctic cooperation between the US and China," Aug 27, Alaska Dispatch News (ADN), http://www.adn.com/article/20150827/strengthen-arctic-cooperation-between-us-and-china —br

US – China Cooperation is able to resolve proliferation of WMDs
(Chu, with dozens of other members of The Atlantic Council, "China-US Cooperation: Key to the Global Future," http://globaltrends.thedialogue.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/China-US-cooperation-Key-to-the-Global-future.pdf) Recognizing the importance of such cooperation is the first step. The next is devising AND successful global efforts to address climate change and prepare to manage its consequences.
 * Shulong 14** - Deputy Director, Institute of International Strategic and Development Studies, Tsinghua University

Cooperation with China is vital to fisheries enforcement
Five key areas of cooperation can enhance Arctic cooperation between the U.S. AND the Arctic five, can be an effective strategy to minimize future disagreements.
 * Slayton and Brigham, 15**—David Slayton is research fellow, co-chair and executive director of the Arctic Security Initiative at Stanford University's Hoover Institution. Lawson W. Brigham is distinguished professor of geography and Arctic policy at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, a fellow at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy's Center for Arctic Study & Policy, and a member of Hoover's Arctic Security Initiative. "Strengthen Arctic cooperation between the US and China," Aug 27, Alaska Dispatch News (ADN), http://www.adn.com/article/20150827/strengthen-arctic-cooperation-between-us-and-china —br

Cooperation in the arctic empirically leads to increases in science diplomacy
Scientific and environmental cooperation – avenues for a peaceful future? As the coastal states AND proceeds far more rapidly than traditional methods of governance can adjust to it.
 * Numminen 10** (Lotta Numminen at the The Finnish Institute of International Affairs, Environmental Programme, "Breaking the Ice: Can environmental and scientific cooperation be the way forward in the Arctic" Political Geography Volume 29, Issue 2, February 2010, Pages 85–87 http://www.sciencedirect.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/science/article/pii/S0962629810000363

Science Diplomacy increases multilateralism
Edwina **Hollander**, Researcher for Marine and Estuarine Ecology at the University Of Tasmania, **15**, Online: "http://www.e-ir.info/2015/08/30/how-does-science-diplomacy-cope-with-challenges-facing-diplomacy-more-broadly/", Article: "How Does Science Diplomacy Cope with Challenges Facing Diplomacy More Broadly?" Accessed on: 06-23-16//AWW Contemporary diplomacy is characterised by change. In the modern globally interconnected world, a AND for diplomacy: using science cooperation to improve relations between countries.[5]

Science diplomacy solves climate change
The Obama Administration has embraced the concept of science diplomacy as a way to bridge AND exchange of information – would be more receptive to American overtures more generally.
 * Wolfe 13 – Audra J Wolfe is a writer, editor, and historian at The Guardian with a BS in chemistry from Purdue University and a historian of science (PhD from UPenn) and author of an award-winning Cold War science book, "Science diplomacy works, but only when it's genuine",** https://www.theguardian.com/science/political-science/2013/aug/23/obama-science-foreign-policy**, The Guardian, Aug 23, dz**

Science diplomacy is essential for coalition building and conflict resolution – solves nuclear proliferation
Science is a source of what Joseph Nye, the former dean of the Kennedy AND important that scientific and diplomatic goals remain clearly defined, to avoid the undue
 * The Royal Society '10**; The President, Council, and Fellows of the Royal Society of London for Improving Natural Knowledge, is a learned society for science and is possibly the oldest such society still in existence. Founded in November 1660, it was granted a royal charter by King Charles II as "The Royal Society". It's a Fellowship of many of the world's most eminent scientists and is the oldest scientific academy in continuous existence;; Online: "https://royalsociety.org//media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2010/4294969468.pdf", Article: "New frontiers in science diplomacy" Accessed on: 06-23-16//AWW

Chinese overfishing is catastrophic and irreversible – science diplomacy is able to resolve it
Waste disposal has also become an issue of greater environmental significance in China. Indeed AND but to work with China to mitigate the environmental impact of its rise.
 * Goldstein, 15**—Lyle J., associate professor at, and former founding director of, the China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) of the U.S. Naval War College. PhD (Princeton), MA (Johns Hopkins). Meeting China Halfway: How to Defuse the Emerging US-China Rivalry, Chapter 5: Toxic Embrace, The Environment and US-China Relations, p. 113-7 —br

We have 4 impact scenarios Scenario 1 is climate change
CLIMATE change puts humanity at risk. The Pope's celebrated encyclical letter on the subject AND be very effective in overcoming the current inertia that climate negotiations suffer from.
 * ====Expert consensus that warming is real and existential – melting glaciers ignite a cascade that exceeds cost-benefit analysis ====**
 * Treich and Rheinberger, 15**—Christoph Rheinberger (Professor of Health Policy and Management @ Harvard) and Nicolas Treich (Professor at the Toulouse School of Economics). Citing Weitzman (economist @ Harvard) and Bostrom (prof @ Oxford). "On the economics of the end of the world as we know it," The Economist, http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2015/07/climate-change — br

The Arctic is thawing even faster than lawmakers can formulate new rules to prevent the AND damage caused by physical hazards encountered in the Arctic, and navigating restrictions."
 * ====The timeframe and Probability are a major key – the Arctic will be ice free by 2100, driving 2/3 of all global trade through the Arctic without regulation ====**
 * Saul and Chestney, 16**—Jonathan and Nina, Reuters reporters citing Whit Sheard of the Circumpolar Conservation Union, Julie Gourley, senior Arctic official at the U.S. State Department and multiple studies. "Arctic thaw opens shipping waterways, risks to environment," Feb 25, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-shipping-arctic-idUSKCN0VY1N9 —br

Unilateralism is dead, but multilateralism is declining now
Andrés **Malamud**, Malamud, PhD, is a senior research fellow at the Institute of Social Sciences of the University of Lisbon, where he chairs the PhD program in Comparative Politics, **06-06**-16, Online: "http://latinamericagoesglobal.org/2016/06/3589/", Article: "It's a multipolar world after all! (It's just not a multilateral one.)" Accessed on: 06-24-16//AWW Rising multipolarity was once thought to lead to multilateralism. The more numerous the great AND short of expectations, as states keep negotiating mostly on an individual basis.

China and America share a common interest of freedom of navigation in the Arctic. AND current state of liberalism fostered through the Arctic Council to a realist view.
 * ====Pursuing Chinese full member status in exchange for environmental cooperation locks in multilateral peace – that's key to defuse inevitable proxy conflicts that wreck stability ====**
 * Dwyer, 15**— Commander William G. Dwyer III, United States Coast Guard, "China's Strategic Interests in the Arctic," NDU Press 3rd Place Paper, United States Army War College, Joint Force Quarterly, NDU Press, http://uscga.edu/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=65722, p. 15-17

Graeme P. **Herd 10**, Head of the International Security Programme, Co-Director of the International Training Course in Security Policy, Geneva Centre for Security Policy, 2010, "Great Powers: Towards a "cooperative competitive" future world order paradigm?," in Great Powers and Strategic Stability in the 21^^st^^ Century, p. 197-198 Given the absence of immediate hegemonic challengers to the US (or a global strategic AND contributed to the crisis; all will be involved in the solution.24
 * ====Independently, successful management of proxy conflicts through regional multilateral institutions prevents existential threats ====**

Scenario 3 is overfishing
====We're on the brink of an overfishing crisis, with devastating consequences for oceanic health and global food security – only immediate, cooperative action to rebuild major fish stocks can avert global catastrophe==== The state of the world's fish stocks may be in worse shape than official reports AND before. Basically, the oceans are more productive than we thought before."
 * Harvey, 16**—Jessica, writer @ WaPo citing researchers Daniel Pauly and Dirk Zeller of the University of British Columbia. "Why we've been hugely underestimating the overfishing of the oceans," Washington Post, Jan 19, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/01/19/why-weve-been-hugely-underestimating-the-overfishing-of-the-oceans/ —br

Global food shortages make several scenarios for massive global instability inevitable
The world must increase its food production by 60 per cent by mid-century AND people's access to food, while high crude oil prices inflate production costs.
 * Reuters 14** – citing the UN Food and Agriculture Organization "Food Shortage a risk to world security—UN," 11/3, http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/9811953/Food-shortage-a-risk-to-world-security-UN, DOA: 12-29-14, y2k

Overfishing is the root cause of ocean decline —- undermines resilience
Last week, a CBS news story highlighting a 2006 study on the decline of AND . Furthermore, poor management costs the world's fisheries $50 billion annually.
 * Rader, 14** —- Environmental Defense Fund's chief ocean scientist (2/26/2014, Douglas, "Trending: Concern for ocean health and the resources to help," http://www.edf.org/blog/2014/02/26/trending-concern-ocean-health-and-resources-help, JMP)

Ocean biodiversity solves extinction and prevents food insecurity
Science fiction author Arthur C Clarke once observed, "How inappropriate to call this AND same time the oceans also remain largely (95 per cent) unexplored.
 * Schofield, 14** —- Director of Research at the Australian Centre for Ocean Resource and Security University of Wollongong (3/10/2014, Clive, "Why our precious oceans are under threat," http://uowblogs.com/globalchallenges/2014/03/10/the-threats-facing-our-precious-oceans/, JMP)

Prolif increases the likelihood of a nuclear war

 * Haddick 2014** -an independent contractor at U.S. Special Operations Command

Robert, Fire on the Water, Naval Institute Press, p. 41-2 Of the ten known, suspected, and impending nuclear weapon states (the United AND Under the Hobbesian pathway, the odds of nuclear disaster would rise substantially.

Deterrence doesn't check prolif
Mark **Fitzpatrick '16**, Executive Director, IISS–Americas, and director of the IISS Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy Programme, 02-02-16, Online: "https://www.iiss.org/en/publications/adelphi/by%20year/2015-9b13/asias-latent-nuclear-powers-7b8a", Article: "Asia's Latent Nuclear Powers: Japan, South Korea and Taiwan" Accessed on: 06-29-16//AWW Under what conditions would the democracies in Northeast Asia seek to join the nuclear weapons AND . Nuclear hedging by its Northeast Asian partners will challenge Washington's nuclear diplomacy.

A miscalcated response via "use-it-or-lose-it" is inevitable in a world of an arms race

 * Cimbala 2015** – Distinguished Professor of Political Science, Penn State Brandywine

Stephen J, "The New Nuclear Disorder: Challenges to Deterrence and Strategy," Ashgate Publishing, p. 154-160 What would a nuclear arms race in Asia look like, after the second decade AND line that permits neither reflection nor appropriate vetting of the information at hand.

Kills the NPT

 * Santoro and Warden, 15**—senior fellow at the Pacific Forum CSIS AND used to debate

David and John, "Assuring Japan and South Korea in the Second Nuclear Age", The Washington Quarterly 38:1 U.S. assurance of allies exists along a spectrum, and Washington must AND revealed that 66 percent of people in South Korea wanted nuclear weapons.11