Molly+and%20Tres

South Korea- Korean War and Regionalism

Plan: the United States federal government should implement a phased withdrawal of its ground troops from the Republic of Korea.


 * __Advantage One is Korean War __**


 * The chance of a major miscalculation and global escalation is possible now- five scenarios. **

**Sanger, 10** (5/28/10, David E. Sanger, NY Times,won the Pulitzer prize twice; graduated from harvard; member of the Council on Foreign Relations, “In the Koreas, Five Possible Ways to War,” [])

USUALLY, there is a familiar cycle. . . else North Korea found its customers.


 * Sinking of the Cheonan makes conflict inevitable—retaliation will draw in the U.S. and ignite a war of escalating proportions. **

**Bandow, 10 -**senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to Reagan (4/18/10, Doug, “Let the Koreans Take Care of the Koreas,” [])

It has been weeks since the. . . ill-prepared to defend its own personnel.


 * U.S. presence makes provocations inevitable and guarantees our draw in. **

**Bandow, 10** -senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to Reagan (5/3/10, Doug, “Taming Pyongyang,” [] )

Suspicions continue to mount that North. . . doing so in 2010 is bizarre.


 * This time, South Korea will fight back, ensuring escalation. **

**AFP, 6/15** (6/5/09, “S.Korea to re-enact naval battle amid tensions,” [|http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iJ7-I6CqAa2pFx4vjBHQZhN7jCQQ)]

A multinational investigation concluded last month. . . estimated 20 sailors aboard was sunk.


 * Nuclear attack on the U.S. is the inevitable consequence. **

**Layne, 6** – professor of government at Texas A & M University (Christopher, The Peace of Illusions: American Grand Strategy from 1940 to the Present, p. 169)

Rather than being instruments of regional. . . Eurasian conflicts by its alliance commitments.


 * <span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;">The natural U.S. response to bolster deterrence will just increase provocations and make disasters more likely. **

<span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;">**Armstrong, 10** – Professor of history and director of the Center for Korean Research at Columbia University.. (Charles, 5/26/10, CNN, “The Korean War never ended” [])

<span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;">On the other hand, there is. . . Korean War, not start it anew.


 * <span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;">North Korea might decide that it has nothing to lose in the status quo – making more miscalculations likely **

<span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;">**Righter, 10** – Worked for the Far Eastern Economic Review and Newsweek in Asia, as development and diplomatic correspondent of The Sunday Times. Has written 4 books on IR including The Undivided World, (Rosemary, 5/25/10, Times Online, “It’s risky, but this time North Korea must pay” [])

<span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;">It is the lack of obvious. . . never quite reached this danger point.


 * <span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;">Withdrawing ground troops solves – stops North Korea from probing U.S. weakness to draw our forces into a wider conflict. Air and naval installations will maintain power projection capabilities afterward. **

<span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;"> **Stanton, 10** – U.S. Army Judge Advocate in Korea from 98-02 and practicing attorney in Washington, D.C. (4/12/10, Joshua, The New Ledger, “It's Time for the U.S. Army to Leave Korea,” [|http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/04/11/opinion/main6386737.shtml)]

<span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;">Proceeding against the advice of my. . . clock, aligns with the correct result.


 * <span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;">Once we’re gone, RoK and PRC diplomacy will stabilize and denuclearize the peninsula. **

<span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;"> **Erickson, 10** – Executive Director of CenterMovement.org (5/6/10, Stephen, “End the Cold War in Korea: Bring American Troops Home Before it’s Too Late,” []

<span style="font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 8pt;">On the night of March 26 the. . . <span style="font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">brought home before it’s too late.


 * <span style="font-family: Georgia,serif;">Chinese involvement is key to stabilize Korea – prevents violent collapse, military response by South Korea, North Korea nuclearization and allied proliferation. **

<span style="font-family: Georgia,serif;">**Bandow, 10** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (5/3/10, Doug, “Taming Pyongyang,” [])

<span style="font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 8pt;">Second, the United States, South Korea. . . <span style="font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 8pt;">China in the North Korean issue.


 * <span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;">North Korean aggression and nuclearization will cause nuclear conflict –4 scenarios for rapid extinction. **

<span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;">**Hayes & Hamel-Green, 10** – *Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development, AND **Executive Dean of the Faculty of Arts, Education and Human Development act Victoria University (1/5/10, Executive Dean at Victoria, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia,” [])**

<span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;">The international community is increasingly aware. . . priority consideration from the international community.

<span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;">__Advantage Two is Regionalism.__

<span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;">U.S. alliance relationships are unsustainable – Asian powers should develop a regional security strategy that does not rely on the U.S. – solves WMD terrorism, tame China, prevents Sino-Japan conflict, Japan imperialism, solve resource conflicts and stop major power domination.

Francis, 6 **– former Australian Ambassador to Croatia and fellow at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University from 05-06 (Fall 2006, Neil, Harvard International Review, “For an East Asian Union: Rethinking Asia's Cold War Alliances,” []**


 * <span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;">At the conclusion of the Second . . .a strong, independent East Asian Union. **

<span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;">Regionalism is currently halfhearted – only a clear sign of U.S. withdrawal can motivate sustainable regional security cooperation

Carpenter and Bandow 4 **- * Vice President of Defense and Foreign Studies at the Cato Institute, AND** Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute (Ted Galen Carpenter, 12/2004, The Korean Conundrum: America’s Troubled Relations With North and South Korea, pg 160-161)

<span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;">The security treaties with the United. . . the central and west-central Pacific.


 * <span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;">Withdrawal will reduce Korea’s veto of multilateral security mechanisms – yielding a peace system on the peninsula that prevents great power war **

<span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;"> **Lee, 9** – Seoul National University (December 2009, Geun, “The Nexus between Korea’s Regional Security Options and Domestic Politics,” [|www.cfr.org)]

<span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;">Korea’s Option of Multilateral Security Cooperation. . . form of the U.S.-Korea alliance.


 * <span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;">Accelerating U.S. withdrawal is key to catalyze a multipolar balance of power in the region and pave the way for an off-shore balancing strategy. **

<span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;"> **Espiritu, 6** – Commander, U.S. Navy (3/15/06, Commander Emilson M. Espiritu, “The Eagle Heads Home: Rethinking National Security Policy for The Asia-Pacific Region,” [|http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA448817&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf)]

<span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;">Can the U.S. live with the. . . for the Eagle to head home.


 * <span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;">U.S. presence discourages a regional balance of power system that can effectively contain conflicts. **

<span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;"> **Bandow, 8** – Fellow at the American Conservative Defense Alliance and former special assistant to Reagan (6/9/2008, Doug, “Ending the U.S.-Korea Alliance,” [|http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=17812)]

<span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;">Still, does an American presence dampen. . . end today’s outmoded twentieth-century alliance.


 * <span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;">Strengthening the East Asian regional security architecture key to solve terrorism, territorial disputes, disease, environmental degradation, and maritime security **

<span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;">**Nanto, 8** – Specialist in Industry and Trade Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division for Congressional Research Services (1/4, “East Asian Regional Architecture: New Economic and Security Arrangements and U.S. Policy,” www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33653.pdf)

<span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;">A stronger regional security organization in. . . or will exist in the future.

<span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;"> **Bandow, 3** – senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (5/7/03, Doug, CATO Policy Analysis, “Bring the Troops Home: Ending the Obsolete Korean Commitment,” http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-474es.html
 * <span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;">Only withdrawal can motivate regional cooperation and prevent U.S. involvement in conflict **

<span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;">The growing North Korean nuclear crisis. . . America force other states to act.

<span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;"> **Synder 9** – Director, Center for U.S.-Korea Policy Senior Associate, International Relations (Scott, “China’s Rise and the Two Koreas: Politics, Economics, Security”, pg. 190)
 * <span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;">South Korea can’t push for multilateral organizations until it has relative independence from the U.S. **

<span style="display: block; font-family: Georgia,serif; text-align: left;">Although the South Korean National Security. . . people also share the same perception
 * Chinese involvement is key to stabilize Korea – prevents violent collapse, military response by South Korea, North Korea nuclearization and allied proliferation.**
 * Bandow, 10** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (5/3/10, Doug, “Taming Pyongyang,” [], JMP)
 * Chinese involvement is key to stabilize Korea – prevents violent collapse, military response by South Korea, North Korea nuclearization and allied proliferation.**
 * Bandow, 10** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (5/3/10, Doug, “Taming Pyongyang,” [], JMP)