Miranda+&+Eigen


 * Plan: The United States federal government should substantially increase its regulated carbon backbone pipeline infrastructure investment in the United States. **

**__ 1AC Solvency __** Cyrus, “Note: Regulating Carbon Capture and Sequestration: A Federal Regulatory Regime to Promote the Construction of a National Carbon Dioxide Pipeline Network,” 80 Geo. Wash. L. Rev. 950, Lexis
 * Carbon regulation is coming and CCS technology is advancing – facilitating regulated transportation infrastructure is key to jump-starting the commercial industry **
 * Zarraby 12 ** ** - ** chemical engineer for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, JD expected from GWU in 2012

__ Rising food prices __, 1 __ mass migration __ , 2 __ new endangered species __ , 3 __ severe droughts __ 4 - __ scientists have linked each of these harms to __ increased emissions of __ greenhouse gases __ , and if such harms persist, they will fundamentally change the way human beings live their lives. 5 __ To combat these harms, the __ Environmental Protection Agency (" __ EPA __ ") recently __ announced that __, for the first time, __ the United States will regulate __ the emissions of __ greenhouse gases from power plants under the Clean Air Act. 6 One of the largest emitters of greenhouse gases is coal-fired electricity __. 7 Coal-fired power generation accounts for roughly one-third of all greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. 8 Despite its contribution to climate change, the United States' reliance on coal-fired power is increasing: the Energy Information Administration estimates that coal power will account for over forty percent of United States electricity generation in 2035. 9 Carbon Capture and Sequestration (" __ CCS") is one of the most promising technologies to curb greenhouse gas emissions from coal-fired electric generation __. 10 [*953] CCS is a process whereby carbon dioxide ("CO<2>") is separated from the power plant emissions and transported and stored in underground reservoirs. 11 __ CCS prevents the release of CO<2> into the atmosphere and effectively eliminates greenhouse gas emissions __ from the power plant operations. 12 __ Although the technology for capturing and storing CO<2> has been proven in operation __, 13 __ the United States does not have adequate infrastructure to implement CCS on a national scale. Specifically, tens of thousands of miles of CO<2> pipelines must be constructed to transport the CO<2> from the power plants to underground reservoirs. 14 Currently, there is no comprehensive federal regulation of CO<2> pipelines and existing state regulations are limited. __ 15 __ The uncertainty of this regulatory framework will prevent the development of much-needed CO<2> pipelines. 16 Given the harms that will arise because of greenhouse gas emissions and the continued reliance on coal __ as a source of electricity, __ it is imperative that Congress pass legislation that promotes the construction of new CO<2> pipelines __. 17

International Risk Governance Council, “Regulation of Carbon Capture and Storage,” []
 * The //__entire project__// depends on a national network for pipeline infrastructure **
 * I R G C 8 **

__ Large-scale CCS deployment cannot proceed until extensive pipeline infrastructure is in place. Large volumes of CO2 __ – a 1,000 MW coal-ﬁred power plant produces 5 to 8 million tonnes of CO2 annually – __ will need to be transported from source to sink. Linkages are complex, and the business model for pipeline operators includes signiﬁcant risk, as their operations are subject to uncertainties __ beyond their control at both ends of the pipe. __ This risk puts upward pressure on pipeline costs __, as do recent steel price increases. __ Transport infrastructure investment requires __ regional and __ sitespeciﬁc knowledge of __ geological __ storage __ prospects, as well as knowledge of current and future CO2 source __ locations, volumes, and characteristics __. Pipeline transport of CO2 is successfully regulated for enhanced oil recovery in the US, but with a framework that does not necessarily translate to the industrial organisation of CCS. Regulation of risks related to pipeline transport is straightforward, but more __ complicated regulatory decisions will relate to funding, siting and construction of pipeline networks off-shore, onshore, and through urban zones, natural monopoly concerns, and issues of eminent domain ____. __ Different __ regulatory models __ for CO2 pipeline ownership, a privately owned, common carrier approach or a public utility approach could stimulate different levels of investment, potentially __ inﬂuencing __ the ultimate organisational structure of __ the CCS industry. __

“Building Essential Infrastructure for Carbon Capture and Storage,” Report to the Global Carbon Capture and Storage Institute,[]
 * //__Significant__// and //__immediate__// government investment is key **
 * Insight Economics 11 **

This has ramifications for investment in CCS infrastructure. It is not clear, for example, that private investors are willing to provide storage facilities for CO2 in onshore locations because the nature and extent of contingent liabilities are insufficiently understood. __ There may be a concern over building CO2 pipelines __ near areas of high population density. __ If the construction of efficient CCS infrastructure is deemed to produce significant public benefits, government intervention __, perhaps in terms of assuming the liability at least for a period of time, __ may well be justified. __ A detailed study of the appetite of the private sector to invest in CCS facilities, undertaken by BCG for the Global CCS Institute, found that: “ __ Funding, finance and commercial models for full-scale, integrated CCS projects are at an early stage of development. High risks and uncertain returns for early projects mean __** __ significant __ **__ and __** __ immediate __ **__ government support through grants or equity investments are likely to be needed to engage the private sector __ .” 21 While this conclusion reflects the investment status of a technology that is still in the stage where it is being demonstrated at commercial scale, __ it may still be __** __ some time __ **__ before the market can be relied upon to deliver private investment in CCS, __ including the associated __ infrastructure. If investment is to take place, it is likely to be on the basis of __ the mixed funding model incorporating __ a __** __ substantial contribution __ **__ from the public sector __.

Rotterdam Climate Initiative, “Co2 capture, transport and storage in Rotterdam,” [] It is obvious that emitters, transportation companies and offshore operators will have to join forces to make the first investments. Allocation of European and national subsidies will play a crucial role. Once operational, the CCS chain will attract more users and investors, facilitating efforts to upscale it. Infrastructure subsidies are also necessary to make it possible to start with a degree of overcapacity in the first years of development and to optimise capital expenditures in the longer term. However, financing is not the only obstacle for a quick start. Relevant legislation and regulations regarding liability, planning permission and procedures should be developed and enacted. In order to stimulate decision making: operators and transportation companies should have a clear view of the conditions for the transport and storage of CO2. For this reason, __ we recommend that the __** __ government __ **__ take the following __ legislation and __ measures to further reduce the ____ investment risk for transport __ and storage: - __ the __** __ national government __ **__ subsidises investments in the pipeline network ____ infrastructure __ ; - __ the __** __ national government __ **__ ensures the development of a master plan with __ the associated __ legislation to ensure __ the timely __ availability of __ suitable reservoirs and __ pipelines __ in the Dutch continental shelf (with fields like Q8A, P18, P6, L10, K7 or suitable equivalents) to offer emitters the required storage capacity for their CO 2
 * Key to reduce investment risk – EU model proves **
 * RCI 9 **


 * Absent federal funding, companies will inevitably build point-to-point **
 * Chrysostomidis et al. 9 ** – Ioannis Chrysostomidis and Paul Zakkour, Environemtal Resources Management; Mark Bohm and Eric Beynon, Suncor Energy; Renato de Filippo, Eni SpA; Arthur Lee, Chevron Corporation (“Assessing issues of financing a CO2 transportation pipeline infrastructure” Energy Procedia Volume 1, Issue 1, Pages 1625–1632, February 2009, []) // MR //

// **__For carbon dioxide capture and geologic storage to be deployed commercially and in a widespread manner will require well__** ¶ **__thought out approaches for transporting the CO2 in a pipeline system__** from the capture facility to the injection site. **__Establishing a__** ¶ **__widespread CO2 transportation infrastructure will require strategic long-term planning, taking into account__** the potential ¶ magnitude of **__future deployment scenarios for CCS, up to a scale of infrastructure__** that could be **__comparable to__** the scale of **__oil &__** ¶ **__gas infrastructure__**. This paper outlines the results of **__a study__**, commissioned **__by the CO2 Capture Project__** (CCP) **__and__** completed by ¶ **__Environmental Resources Management__** (ERM) that **__evaluated__** the benefits and risks of two **__approaches to developing CO2__** ¶ **__pipeline systems. The two__** basic **__approaches are__** described in the paper as: ¶ 1. **__On a point-to-point basis, which matches a specific source to a specific storage location; or__** ¶ 2. Via the development of pipeline networks, including **__backbone pipeline systems,__** which allow for common carriage of CO2 ¶ from multiple sources to multiple sinks. ¶ **__An integrated approach__** to pipeline infrastructure approach **__offers the lowest average cost on a per ton basis for operators over the__** ¶ **__life of the projects__** if sufficient capacity utilization is achieved relatively early in the life of the pipeline. **__Integrated pipelines also__** ¶ **__reduce the barriers to entry and__** are more likely to **__lead to faster development and deployment of CCS. Without incentives to__** ¶ **__encourage the development of optimized networks project developers are likely to build point to point pipelines because they__** ¶ **__offer lower costs for the first movers and do not have the same capacity utilization risk.__** //

// **That drives up costs, delays the project, and doesn’t store enough CO2** // // **National Grid 12** – international electricity and gas company and one of the largest investor-owned energy companies in the world (“The benefits of a clustered carbon capture and storage system over point-to-point” National Grid, 2012,[|__http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/EnergyandServices/NonRegs/CCS/ClusteringBenefits/#header)//MR__] //

// **__A shared pipeline system can__** very **__effectively serve a cluster of emitters__** situated **__in a__** single **__geographic area. It also provides a more cost effective and reliable solution than individual emitters developing their own point-to-point CO2 pipelines.__** ¶ **__Clustering reduces costs as a given storage site can serve multiple emitters and only one backbone pipeline is needed. A clustered transport system could__** potentially **__save__** **__well over 25 per cent of expenditure compared to a point-to-point system__**, depending on the scale of the cluster. ¶ **__A cluster system allows extra capacity over point-to-point systems, reduces barriers to future investment and increases the speed of deployment. It__** also **__opens up the opportunity to connect small emitters for whom point-to-point solutions may be too expensive.__** //

// **Federal lands are key to accelerate deployment of CCS** // // **Grant 9** - Physical Scientist Office of Systems, Analyses, and Planning @ DoE // // Tim, “Storage of Captured Carbon Dioxide Beneath Federal Lands,” Dept of Energy, [] //

// A global effort is underway to assess storage potential for captured carbon dioxide (CO2). In North America, the Carbon Sequestration Atlas of the United States and Canada provided an initial assessment. The analysis presented in this report was done to assess the storage potential beneath Federal lands and further the effort undertaken in the atlas by defining a resource potential beneath a specific category of land. Also considered in this analysis was the location of potential CO2 point sources that might utilize Federal lands for storage, pipeline Right-Of-Way (ROW), and wells located on or near Federal land. Relevant laws, regulations, and legislation at the Federal and State level are also summarized. A significant portion of Federal land is unavailable for leasing due to administrative, statutory, and executive orders. Examples include national parks and lands owned by the Department of Defense (DOD), the Department of Justice (DOJ), and other agencies. These limitations render 44 percent of all Federal acreage unavailable for lease. Remaining __ Federal lands, totaling 400,730,534 acres, are available for lease __ (Figure ES-1). The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) controls 59 percent of this acreage and the U.S. Forest Service (FS) controls another 40 percent with the balance managed by the Department of Energy (DOE) and the Bureau of Reclamation (BOR). All of the BLM acreage and 80 percent of FS acreage is west of the Mississippi. __ The storage resource beneath Federal lands ranges between 126 and 375 billion metric tons __ (Table ES-1). Since the vast majority of Federal lands are west of the Mississippi, it follows that the majority of storage potential beneath these lands are also located in the western half of the Nation. Of the estimated storage potential beneath Federal land in the United States, 68 percent can be found in the stratigraphy of Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas. Conversely, the majority of CO2 point sources in the United States are found east of the Mississippi. Federal lands are not as contiguous in the east as they are in the west; however, there is some storage potential available for consideration, the majority of which is found in the stratigraphy of the Gulf Coast states and Arkansas. Saline formations account for between 71 and 90 percent of the total carbon storage potential beneath Federal lands. Oil and gas reservoirs provide between 9 and 25 percent of Federal land storage potential. Unmineable coal seams provide a further 1 to 3 percent. Whereas saline formations and unmineable coal seam resource estimates present a low and high range of potential, the storage potential estimate for oil and gas reservoirs is a single quantity: 32 billion metric tons. This reflects the higher level of knowledge operators have about these reservoirs due to oil and gas activity. It also represents a good opportunity for additional recovery of an important energy resource through Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) operations. In the interest of furthering Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) efforts, __ Federal lands present a __**__ unique advantage __** over those that are privately owned: single ownership of large, continuous acreage tracts. Negotiating with a single landowner to secure the rights to extensive continuous parcels of land can provide cost and project timeline advantages, __ not only for __ potential __ future operations but also __ for __ early large-scale demonstration projects that will help __**__ accelerate __**__ commercial deployment of CCS technology __. //

// ** Laundry list of legal checks on environmental impacts ** // // **Shortino 11** – journalist at the Philadelphia Inquirer (John, “Types of Coal Mining Restrictions” eHow.com, June 29 2011 [|__http://www.ehow.com/info_8665548_types-coal-mining-restrictions.html__]) MLR //

// __ Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act __ of 1977 The second major act that directly regulates coal mining is the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977. This act __ outlines environmental regulations for strip or open pit mining, and ultimately requires that land used for surface mining is restored to its original condition, or "reclaimed" after operations have ceased. __ This act also created the Office of Surface Mining, which oversees surface mines and ensures that the act is being enforced. __ Clean Water and Air Acts Other laws __ do not directly address coal mines, but they do __ affect how coal mines operate. The Clean Water Act __, passed in 1972, __ prohibits the discharge of pollutants into waterways, which effectively restricts how coal mines deal with slurry: liquid waste generated by the mining process __. The Clean Air Act, first passed in 1970, affects both the mining and burning of coal by restricting the amount of air pollution that industrial sources can create. Laws Tied to Location Other laws that affect the coal industry relate to the actual location of mines. These laws, which include the Antiquities Act and the National Historic Preservation Act, set aside pieces of land that cannot be used or developed by industry, including coal mining. In other areas, __ the Endangered Species Act restricts mining in locations where it could harm an endangered animal population __. //

**__ 1AC Economy __** // **Advantage 1 – economy** //

// **Carbon sequestration is key to averting negative economic consequences of carbon regulations** // // **EPA 10****–** US Environmental Protection Agency // // “Report of the Interagency Task Force on Carbon Capture and Storage,” [] //

// While __ CCS __ can be applied to a variety of stationary sources of CO2, its application to coal-fired power plant emissions __ offers the greatestpotential for GHG reductions. Coal has served as an important domestic source of reliable, affordable energy for decades, and the coal industry has provided stable and quality high-paying jobs for American workers __. At the same time, __ coal-fired power plants are the largest contributor to U.S. __ greenhouse gas ( __ GHG) emissions __, and coal combustion accounts for 40 percent of global carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions from the consumption of energy. EPA and Energy Information Administration (EIA) assessments of recent climate and energy legislative proposals show that, __ if available on a cost-effective basis, CCS can __ over time __ play a largerole in reducing the overall cost of meeting domestic emissions reduction targets. By playing a leadership role in efforts to __ develop and __ deploy CCS technologies __ to reduce GHG emissions, __ the United States can preserve the option of using an affordable, abundant, and domestic energy resource, help improve national security, __ help to maximize production from existing oil fields through enhanced oil recovery (EOR), __ and assist in the creation of new technologies for export. __ //

// **Having coal as a utility option is key – any alternative drastically increases consumer energy costs** // // **Zarraby 12** **-** chemical engineer for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, JD expected from GWU in 2012 // // Cyrus, “Note: Regulating Carbon Capture and Sequestration: A Federal Regulatory Regime to Promote the Construction of a National Carbon Dioxide Pipeline Network,” 80 Geo. Wash. L. Rev. 950, Lexis //

// In the United States, __ coal-fired power generation accounts for approximately forty-five percent of all electricity consumed __. 32 __ Coal-fired generation is the most prevalent form of electricity because coal is abundant and less expensive than alternative sources __ of energy. 33 Specifically, __ the United States' __ coal reserve accounts for approximately twenty-five percent of the total coal in the world. 34 This __ coal reserve represents more __ potential __ energy than the amount of oil worldwide __. 35 __ Because coal is readily available, the cost of producing electricity from coal is significantly less than other technologies __. For example, __ the fuel costs associated with coal-fired generation are approximately seventy-five percent less than natural gas electricity __. 36 Because of the low costs, the amount of electricity generated from coal rose by 5.4% between 2009 and 2010, even though the total increase in electricity generation was only 4.3%. 37 __ Coal-fired generation __ also serves __ the essential purpose of baseload generation. Baseload power is electricity that is generated at a constant rate to continuously supply a given demand __. 38 __ In contrast with solar and wind power, whose electricity generation varies depending on factors outside the control of the power plant, coal-fired generation produces electricity at a constant rate __. 39 As a result, __ regardless of how many solar panels or windmills are put in operation, the United States will continue to need baseload power from reliable energy sources to counter the varying supply of clean energy output. __ 40 __ Other fuel sources, such as natural gas and nuclear power, are also __ [*957] __ used in baseload generation, but have specific drawbacks that make coal a stronger alternative __. __ Fuel costs associated with natural gas-fired electricity are seventy-five percent higher than that of coal __, 41 __ and the United States must import natural gas __ from foreign sources to meet the current demand. 42 Therefore, __ creating an energy portfolio that relies heavily on natural gas would require the United States to further rely on foreign sources of energy and increase the costs associated with electricity generation __. //

// **Coal is key to all major sectors of the economy** // // **Rose and Wei 6** **-** * Professor of Energy, Environmental and Regional Economics, **Graduate Assistant in the Department of Geography at the Pennsylvania State University** // // ** Adam and Dan, “The Economic Impacts of Coal Utilization and Displacement in the Continental United States, 2015,”[] ** //

// ** We performed our analysis with the aid of an interindustry, or input-output, model. Specifically, __ we analyzed how coal-based electric generation affects __ production ( __ output __ ), household __ income, and employment in other sectors __ of each state and the continental U.S. as a whole under three alternative displacement scenarios. __ Our results indicate that the combination “multiplier” and “price-differential” effects are ____ sizeable __, amounting to $1.05 trillion ($2005) in total 48-state economic output for the “existence” of coal as a relatively inexpensive fuel for electricity generation. The results illustrate that __ government policies __ and private industry decisions __ affecting coal-based electric generation potentially can affect every major aspect of the American economy __. The methodology underlying the study is summarized in Section II below, as well as in Appendix A, which also presents major assumptions and some basic computations underlying the analysis. The results for the five regions analyzed are summarized in Section III, with tables of basic data presented in Appendix B and simulation results presented in Appendix C. We simulated cases where coal-based electricity generation is displaced at levels of 66% and 33% by alternative energy supplies, including natural gas, nuclear, and a 10% mix of renewables, reflecting potential Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) that could be in place by 2015. The results indicate that for the nation, and for nearly every state individually, this displacement -- even factoring in positive offsetting multiplier impacts of replacement fuels and technologies -- would have a net negative economic impact. We project that national gross output would decline by $371 billion for the 66% case, and by $166 billion for the 33% case. II. Methodology A. Measuring Economic Interdependence With a broad base and high level of technological advancement, the U.S. economy exhibits a great deal of interdependence. Each business enterprise relies on many others for inputs into its production process and provides inputs to them in return. This means that the coal and coal-based electric utility industries’ contributions to the nation's economy extend beyond their own production to include demand arising from a succession of "upstream" inputs from their suppliers and "downstream" deliveries to their customers. The economic value of these many rounds of derived demands and commodity allocations is some multiple of the value of direct production itself. Hence, the __ coal and coal-based electric utility industries generate "multiplier" effects throughout the U.S. economy __. ** //

// Nuclear war // // Harris and Burrows 9 **(Mathew, PhD European History at Cambridge, counselor in the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and Jennifer, member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis”[|__http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdf__], AM)** //

Increased Potential for Global Conflict Of course, the report encompasses more than economics and indeed believes the future is likely to be the result of a number of intersecting and interlocking forces. With so many possible permutations of outcomes, each with ample Revisiting the Future opportunity for unintended consequences, there is a growing sense of insecurity. Even so, __ history may be more instructive than ever __ . While we continue to believe that __ the Great Depression __ is not likely to be repeated, the __ lessons __ to be drawn from that period __ include the harmful effects on fledgling democracies and multiethnic societies __ (think Central Europe in 1920s and 1930s) __ and __ on the __ sustainability of multilateral institutions __ (think League of Nations in the same period). __ There is no reason to think that this would not be true in the twenty-first as much as in the twentieth century. __ For that reason, the ways in which __ the potential for greater conflict could grow __ would seem to be even more apt __ in a constantly volatile economic environment __ as they would be if change would be steadier. In surveying those risks, the report stressed the likelihood that terrorism and nonproliferation will remain priorities even as resource issues move up on the international agenda. __ Terrorism’s appeal will decline if economic growth continues in the Middle East and youth unemployment is reduced. __ For those terrorist groups that remain active in 2025, however, the diffusion of technologies and scientific knowledge will place some of the world’s most dangerous capabilities within their reach. __ Terrorist groups __ in 2025 __ will __ likely be a combination of descendants of long established groups_inheriting organizational structures, command and control processes, and training procedures necessary to conduct sophisticated attacks_and newly emergent collections of the angry and disenfranchised that __ become self-radicalized, particularly in the absence of economic outlets that would become narrower in an economic downturn. The most dangerous casualty of any economically-induced drawdown of U.S. military presence would __ almost certainly __ be the Middle East __ . Although Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons is not inevitable, __ worries __ about a nuclear-armed Iran __ could lead states in the region to develop new security arrangements with external powers, acquire additional weapons, and consider pursuing their own nuclear ambitions ____. __ <span style="background-color: #ffffff; display: block; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 10.67px; text-align: justify;">It is not clear that the type of stable deterrent relationship that existed between the great powers for most of the Cold War would emerge naturally in the Middle East with a nuclear Iran. Episodes of low intensity __ conflict __ <span style="background-color: #ffffff; display: block; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 10.67px; text-align: justify;">and terrorism taking place under a nuclear umbrella __ could lead to an unintended escalation and broader conflict __ <span style="background-color: #ffffff; display: block; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 10.67px; text-align: justify;">if clear red lines between those states involved are not well established. __ The close proximity of potential nuclear rivals __ <span style="background-color: #ffffff; display: block; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 10.67px; text-align: justify;">combined with underdeveloped surveillance capabilities and mobile dual-capable Iranian missile systems also __ will produce inherent difficulties ____ in achieving reliable indications and warning of an impending nuclear attack __ <span style="background-color: #ffffff; display: block; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 10.67px; text-align: justify;">. The lack of strategic depth in neighboring states like Israel, __ short warning and missile flight times, and uncertainty __ <span style="background-color: #ffffff; display: block; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 10.67px; text-align: justify;">of Iranian intentions __ may place more focus on preemption __ <span style="background-color: #ffffff; display: block; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 10.67px; text-align: justify;">rather than defense, potentially __ leading to escalating crises. __ <span style="background-color: #ffffff; display: block; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 10.67px; text-align: justify;">36 Types of __ conflict __ <span style="background-color: #ffffff; display: block; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 10.67px; text-align: justify;">that the world continues to experience, such as __ over resources, could reemerge __ <span style="background-color: #ffffff; display: block; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 10.67px; text-align: justify;">, __particularly if__ __ protectionism grows and there is a resort to neo-mercantilist practices. Perceptions ____ of __ <span style="background-color: #ffffff; display: block; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 10.67px; text-align: justify;">renewed energy __scarcity will__ drive countries to take actions to assure their future access to energy supplies. In the worst case, this __ could result in interstate conflicts if government leaders deem assured access to energy resources, __ <span style="background-color: #ffffff; display: block; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 10.67px; text-align: justify;">for example, to be __ essential for __ <span style="background-color: #ffffff; display: block; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 10.67px; text-align: justify;">maintaining domestic stability and the __ survival of their regime __ <span style="background-color: #ffffff; display: block; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 10.67px; text-align: justify;">. Even actions short of war, however, will have important geopolitical implications. Maritime security concerns are providing a rationale for naval buildups and modernization efforts, such as China’s and India’s development of blue water naval capabilities. __ If __ <span style="background-color: #ffffff; display: block; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 10.67px; text-align: justify;">the __ fiscal stimulus focus for __ <span style="background-color: #ffffff; display: block; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 10.67px; text-align: justify;">these __ countries indeed turns inward, one of the most obvious funding targets may be military. Buildup of regional __ <span style="background-color: #ffffff; display: block; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 10.67px; text-align: justify;">naval __ capabilities could lead to increased tensions, rivalries, and counterbalancing moves __ <span style="background-color: #ffffff; display: block; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 10.67px; text-align: justify;">, but it also will create opportunities for multinational cooperation in protecting critical sea lanes. __ With water __ <span style="background-color: #ffffff; display: block; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 10.67px; text-align: justify;">also __ becoming scarcer in Asia and the Middle East, cooperation to manage changing water resources is likely to be increasingly difficult both within and between states in a more dog-eat-dog world. __

// Independently, the plan is a key fiscal stimulus // // ACCCE 11 // // ** American Coalition for Clean Coal Energy, “American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity,” [] ** //

// **__ The United States continues to be a world leader in advanced coal technologies __ not only because of the investments we make. Our leaders also recognize that __ advanced coal technologies need to be developed in order to continue to use of one of the world’s most abundant resources with as small of an environmental impact as possible __. Just last week, Secretary of Energy Steven Chu said to the Senate Budget Committee: The world will continue to rely on coal-fired electrical generation to meet energy demand. It is imperative that the United States develop the technology to ensure that base-load electricity generation is as clean and reliable as possible. Plus, __ taxpayers reap the benefits of our investments into CCS projects __. In a 2009 ACCCE-commissioned study, __ American taxpayers see a quick and significant return on federal investments in advanced coal technologies, gaining $13 in benefits for every dollar the government invests __. ** //

// Domestic stimulus is key to manufacturing jobs and the economy // // Buffenbarger, 11 **(Tom Buffenbarger, president of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, 9/26/11, “Why ‘Buy America’ is integral to the jobs act”, [|__http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-buy-america-is-integral-to-the-jobs-act/2011/09/24/gIQArVpF0K_story.html)//EM__]** //

// __Without a strong “Buy America” provision__** in the American Jobs Act, **__the temptation for businesses to use the funds to purchase goods overseas will be too strong to resist__**. Despite The Post’s enduring support for free trade, one should remember that **__unrestricted outsourcing is one reason why we are in the midst of the most serious economic crisis since the____1930s__**__.__ [|__Personal Post__] For too long, **__too many companies have shipped U.S. jobs to countries that have no regard for fundamental human rights__. __The last thing we should____be doing__** now **__is enabling them to do so with money intended to create jobs here at home. Buy America provisions represent a basic and common-sense solution__** to the jobs crisis. If anything, they should be strengthened. In the past few years, more than 3 million manufacturing workers have lost their jobs. **__Requiring companies to use federal money to purchase domestic materials and manufactured goods will not harm American workers__**. Quite the contrary, **__it will provide much-needed jobs to the millions of manufacturing workers who have lost theirs__**. It **__will__** also help **__restore____our__** nation’s **__economy__**. ** //

// That’s key to faster growth // // Applebaum 12 - ***PhD, Professor @ Rutgers, senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research** // // ** Eileen, 4-27, “Blame Budget Austerity for Poor GDP Growth,” [] ** //

// **__ As the __ Obama administration's 2009 __ stimulus continues to wind down, the effects on the US economy are showing up __ in the economic data. Coming out of a steep recession, __ the economy should be experiencing robust output __, or GDP, growth. Output growth of 3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011 helped bring the unemployment rate down. __ However __, the government's announcement that output __ growth fell to 2.2 __ percent in the first quarter of 2012 should give policy makers pause. __ The economy needs to grow by at least 2.5 percent just to keep unemployment from rising __. Thus __ this latest figure __ on GDP growth __ does not auger well for the job market, __ which has seen a steady rise over the last few weeks in initial unemployment claims. In the face of weaker demand, Investment __ spending by business is slowing. Cutbacks in government spending __ at the federal as well as state and local levels __ are already hurting __ GDP __ growth __. In the absence of federal revenue sharing with the states--the first time the federal government has not had such a program when unemployment is above 7 percent--state and local government expenditures have fallen for seven consecutive quarters. [See a collection of political cartoons on the economy.] __ With the U.S. economy slowing and job growth still very weak, what should the government do? Continued calls for government belt tightening, fiscal consolidation, and austerity are out-of-step with economic realities. The argument for austerity is that drastic cuts in government spending will stave off inflation and provide businesses with __ the __ confidence __ to go out and invest. But __ these are empty arguments. ____ Oil prices fluctuate widely __, rising for reasons unrelated to government policy. Sustained __ inflation is only possible if wage and benefit costs are rising __. Thursday's report on employer costs, however, shows that the year-over-year increase in employment costs is a very modest 2 percent and the increase in the latest quarter is even smaller. As for business confidence taking up the economic slack, the UK provides a stark reminder of just how wrong this argument is. The United Kingdom, like the United States and unlike Greece, has its own currency. The U.K., like the United States and unlike Greece, has its own central bank and control over its own monetary policy. __ There is no chance that the United States __ (or the United Kingdom) __ can end up like Greece. There is, however, the distinct possibility that the United States can end up like the United Kingdom __. [Read: Government Economic Intervention Made America Great.] Almost two years ago the U.K. put in place a coalition government led by George Osborne that implemented an austerity program that cut government spending and public services and was supposed to give British businesses the confidence to invest and boost economic growth. The outcome has fallen far short of these expectations. The U.K. is experiencing the slowest growth in a century, with GDP still 4.3 percent below its peak reached four years ago. Output has grown just 0.4 percent in two years under the Osborne government, and now--with two back-to-back quarters of declining GDP--the British economy has officially slipped back into a double-dip recession. Confidence has not returned to U.K. businesses; indeed lending to businesses fell sharply in March despite the fact that banks had cash available to lend out. Meanwhile, the toll on the British people as government services are cut has become more severe. The charitable trust that operates a network of food banks in the United Kingdom reported that the number of people turning to food banks to feed themselves and their children doubled over the past 12 months. The __ wounds to the U.K. economy are self-imposed __. Unlike Greece or Spain, the United Kingdom did not come under pressure from the E.U. Neither was there pressure from the bond markets; interest rates and borrowing costs were quite low. __ British politicians chose to slash spending and impose austerity __ on the British economy. __ The lesson should not be lost on America's political leaders __. Like the United Kingdom, __ the United States has control over its economic policies. It should not choose austerity __. ** //

// Government spending solves every internal link employment and doesn’t cause inflation – it stimulates demand // // Harvey, 11** – Professor of Economics @ TCU (John, “How to Destroy the US Economy? Balance the Budget,” 6-5, [|__http://blogs.forbes.com/johntharvey/2011/06/05/how-to-destroy-the-us-economy/__]) ** //** AH **


 * Situations like the 1930s and today benefit no one. __Unemployed workers would like jobs, employed workers would like not to have to support (formally or informally) the unemployed, and entrepreneurs would like to sell more output__ . There is an obvious solution: the __federal government can supplement demand.__ Start off with a simple example: just imagine that they pay people $30,000/year to stand on a street corner and make nice comments about passers by to raise national morale: “My, don’t you look handsome today!” “Go get ‘em, tiger!” “You’re important and people like you!” While this may make the others feel uncomfortable and cause them to avoid these particular street corners,it is nevertheless a net addition to aggregate demand __. This is so because when these public greeters go home from work, they spend money from their incomes. This takes nothing from the mouths of existing workers because we already had the ability to produce more__ (again, compare the Roaring Twenties with the Great Depression). On top of that __, the formerly unemployed now have jobs plus the ability to purchase goods and services and entrepreneurs earn more income because their sales rise–everyone is better off__ . __Now let’s make the example a little more realistic and actually give the government employees something useful to do (but not necessarily profitable, since that’s what the private sector already does).__ Instead of street corner greeters, they could be soldiers, airmen, sailors, marines, librarians, teachers, police officers, firemen, social workers, national park rangers, et cetera. __This adds even more to the nation’s wealth because now even the formerly employed enjoy more goods and services__ (for example, protection from domestic and foreign aggression and a place to go camping). Remember __, the core economic problem is the private sector’s inability to generate sufficient demand to employ everyone. This solves it by supplementing demand. It creates more employment, higher wages, and greater profits.__ How the Government can Finance its Spending __Whence comes the money the government uses to pay__ the soldiers, airmen, sailors, marines, librarians, teachers, police officers, firemen, social workers, and national park rangers? __It could tax the private sector, but that’s not terribly effective since it raises demand in one place by lowering it in another__ . So, __they should deficit spend.__ To keep with my desire for simplicity in this entry, let’s say the manner in which this is accomplished is direct borrowing from the Federal Reserve (something that is illegal at the moment but can be, and is, done via a less direct route). __This means the Treasury sells its debt to another branch of the government, in exchange for which it receives the cash it needs to pay those workers. When the debt becomes due, they sell more. Because all US debt is owed in a currency we are legally permitted to print, it is impossible to face debt default. We can choose to default, but we are never forced to. Nor is this inflationary. This is true for a variety of reasons, the most critical of which being that it does not represent more money chasing fewer goods since the quantity of the latter rose–that was the whole point of the exercise. We wanted to lower unemployment and produce more output__ . I have, incidentally, two longer entries on how inflation really works: Money Growth Does Not Cause Inflation! What Actually Causes Inflation (and Who Gains from It) Conclusions That’s the essential story in as few words as I can tell it. For those who are more visual, several months ago a friend of mine used one of my blog posts to make this YouTube explanation of the core issues: [] __The bottom line is that the private sector does not generate sufficient demand to hire all those who are willing to work.__ The real irony is that we have plenty of capacity to produce output for them, they just can’t afford to buy it. But, __if we supplement this with public sector deficit spending–something we can finance forever since the debt is owed in our own currency–then this absolutely, totally unnecessary problem can be solved.__ To do the opposite, __to lower government spending (or raise taxes) in the midst of a period of high unemployment, is not only counterproductive, it’s cruel__ . __The federal government does not borrow in order to be able to afford something it could not otherwise buy.__ Rather, __the goal of deficit spending (at least when we are at less than full employment) is to stimulate demand.__ This is not analogous to how a household __budget works__ . **

Even absent a recession, slow growth leads to global wars Khalilzad 11 – PhD, Former Professor of Political Science @ Columbia, Former ambassador to Iraq and Afghanistan
 * Zalmay Khalilzad was the United States ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the United Nations during the presidency of George W. Bush and the director of policy planning at the Defense Department from 1990 to 1992. "The Economy and National Security" Feb 8 www.nationalreview.com/blogs/print/259024 **


 * Today, __ economic __ and fiscal __ trends pose the most severe long-term threat to the United States’ position as global leader. While the United States suffers from __ fiscal imbalances and __ low ____ economic growth, the economies of rival powers are developing rapidly. __ The __ continuation __ of these two trends __ could lead to a shift from American primacy toward a multi-polar global system, leading __ in turn __ to __ increased __ geopolitical rivalry and __ even __ war among the great powers ____ . __ The current recession is the result of a deep financial crisis, not a mere fluctuation in the business cycle. Recovery is likely to be protracted. The crisis was preceded by the buildup over two decades of enormous amounts of debt throughout the U.S. economy — ultimately totaling almost 350 percent of GDP — and the development of credit-fueled asset bubbles, particularly in the housing sector. When the bubbles burst, huge amounts of wealth were destroyed, and unemployment rose to over 10 percent. The decline of tax revenues and massive countercyclical spending put the U.S. government on an unsustainable fiscal path. Publicly held national debt rose from 38 to over 60 percent of GDP in three years. __ Without faster economicgrowth __ and actions to reduce deficits, publicly held national debt is projected to reach dangerous proportions. If __ interest rates __ were to rise significantly, annual interest payments — which already are larger than the defense budget — __ would crowd out other spending __ or require substantial tax increases that would undercut economic growth. Even worse, if unanticipated events trigger what economists call a “sudden stop” in credit markets for U.S. debt, the United States would be unable to roll over its outstanding obligations, precipitating a sovereign-debt crisis that would almost certainly compel a radical retrenchment of the United States internationally. Such scenarios would reshape the international order. __ It was the economic devastation of Britain and France __ during World War II, as well as the rise of other powers, __ that led both countries to relinquish their empires __ . In the late 1960s, British leaders concluded that they lacked the economic capacity to maintain a presence “east of Suez.” Soviet economic weakness, which crystallized under Gorbachev, contributed to their decisions to withdraw from Afghanistan, abandon Communist regimes in Eastern Europe, and allow the Soviet Union to fragment. If the U.S. debt problem goes critical, __ the United States would be compelled to retrench, __ reducing its military spending and __ shedding international commitments __ . We face this domestic challenge while other major powers are experiencing rapid economic growth. Even though countries such as China, India, and Brazil have profound political, social, demographic, and economic problems, their economies are growing faster than ours, and this could alter the global distribution of power. These trends could in the long term produce a multi-polar world. __ If U.S. policymakers fail to act __ and other powers continue to grow, it is not a question of whether but when a new international order will emerge. __ The closing of the gap __ between the United States and its rivals __ could intensify geopolitical competition among major powers, __ increase incentives for local powers to play major powers against one another, __ and __ undercut our will to preclude or respond to international crises because of the __ higher risk of escalation. __ The stakes are high. In modern history, __ the longest period of peace among the great powers has been the era of U.S. leadership __ . By contrast, __ multi-polar systems have been unstable, with __ their competitive dynamics resulting in frequent crises and __ major wars among the great powers. __ Failures of multi-polar international systems produced both world wars. __ American retrenchment could have devastating consequences __ . Without an American security blanket, regional powers could rearm in an attempt to balance against emerging threats. Under this scenario, __ there would be a heightened possibility of arms races, miscalculation, or other crises spiraling into all-out conflict __ . Alternatively, in seeking to accommodate the stronger powers, __ weaker powers may shift their geopolitical posture away from the United States. __ Either way, __ hostile states would be emboldened to make aggressive moves in their regions __ . **

__ 1AC Warming __ Advantage 2 – warming

Global warming is real and human induced – top climate scientists agree Anderegg et al 10 – PhD Candidate @ Stanford in Biology
 * William, “Expert credibility in climate change,” National Academy of Sciences, p. 12107-12109 **


 * Preliminary reviews of scientific literature and surveys of cli- mate scientists indicate striking agreement with the primary conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): __ anthropogenic greenhouse gases have been responsible for “most” of the “unequivocal” warming of the Earth’s average global temperature over the second half of the 20th century __ (1–3). __ Nonetheless __, substantial and __ growing __ public __ doubt remains __ about the anthropogenic cause and scientific agreement about the role of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in climate change (4, 5). __ A vocal minority of researchers __ and other critics __ contest __ the conclusions of __ the mainstream scientific assessment, frequently citing large numbers of scientists whom they believe support their claims __ (6–8). __ This group __ , often termed climate change skeptics, contrarians, or deniers, __ has received large amounts of media attention and wields significant influence in the societal debate __ about climate change impacts and policy (7, 9–14). An extensive literature examines what constitutes expertise or credibility in technical and policy-relevant scientific research (15). Though our aim is not to expand upon that literature here, we wish to draw upon several important observations from this literature in examining expert credibility in climate change. First, though the degree of contextual, political, epistemological, and cultural in- fluences in determining who counts as an expert and who is credible remains debated, many __ scholars ____ acknowledge the need to identify credible experts and account for expert opinion __ in tech- nical (e.g., science-based) decision-making (15–19). Furthermore, __ delineating expertise and __ the relative __ credibility of claims is critical, especially in areas where it may be difficult for the majority of decision-makers and the lay public to evaluate the full complexities of a technical issue __ (12, 15). Ultimately, however, societal decisions regarding response to ACC must necessarily include input from many diverse and nonexpert stakeholders. Because the timeline of decision-making is often more rapid than scientific consensus, __ examining the landscape of expert opinion can greatly inform such decision-making __ (15, 19). Here, __ we examine a metric of climate-specific expertise __ and a metric of overall sci- entific prominence as two dimensions of expert credibility in two groups of researchers. __ We provide a __ broad __ assessment of __ the rel- ative __ credibility of researchers convinced by the evidence (CE) of ACC and those unconvinced by the evidence (UE) of ACC __ . Our consideration of UE researchers differs from previous work on climate change skeptics and contrarians in that we primarily focus on researchers that have published extensively in the climate field, although we consider all skeptics/contrarians that have signed pro- minent statements concerning ACC (6–8). Such expert analysis can illuminate public and policy discussions about ACC and the extent of consensus in the expert scientific community. __ We compiled a database of 1,372 climate researchers __ based on authorship of scientific assessment reports and membership on multisignatory statements about ACC (SI Materials and Methods). We tallied the number of climate-relevant publications authored or coauthored by each researcher (defined here as expertise) and counted the number of citations for each of the researcher’s four highest-cited papers (defined here as prominence) using Google Scholar. __ We __ then __ imposed __ an a priori __ criterion __ that a researcher must have authored a minimum of 20 climate publications to be considered a climate researcher, thus reducing the database to 908 researchers. Varying this minimum publication cutoff did not ma- terially alter results (Materials and Methods). __ We ranked researchers __ based on the total number of climate publications authored. Though our compiled researcher list is not comprehensive nor designed to be representative of the entire cli- mate science community, we have drawn researchers from the most high-profile reports and public statements about ACC. Therefore, __ we have __ likely __ compiled the strongest and most credentialed re- searchers __ in CE and UE groups. Citation and publication analyses must be treated with caution in inferring scientific credibility, but we suggest that our methods and our expertise and prominence criteria provide conservative, robust, and relevant indicators of relative credibility of CE and UE groups of climate researchers (Materials and Methods). Results and Discussion __ The UE [unconvinced by evidence] group comprises only 2% of the top 50 climate researchers __ as ranked by expertise (number of climate publications), 3% of researchers of the top 100, and 2.5% of the top 200, excluding researchers present in both groups (Materials and Methods). __ This result closely agrees with expert surveys, indicating that ≈97% of __ self-identified __ actively publishing climate scientists agree with the tenets of ACC __ (2). Furthermore, this finding complements direct polling of the climate researcher community, which yields quali- tative and self-reported researcher expertise (2). __ Our findings capture the added dimension of __ the distribution of researcher __ expertise __ , quantify agreement among the highest expertise climate researchers, and provide an independent assessment of level of scientific consensus concerning ACC. In addition to the striking difference in number of expert researchers between CE and UE groups, __ the __ distribution of __ expertise of the UE group is far below that of the CE group __ (Fig. 1). Mean expertise of the UE group was around half (60 publications) that of the CE group (119 pub- lications; Mann–Whitney U test: W = 57,020; P < 10−14), as was median expertise (UE = 34 publications; CE = 84 publications). Furthermore, __ researchers with fewer than 20 climate publications comprise ≈80% the UE group, as opposed to less than 10% of the CE group __ . This indicates that the bulk of UE researchers on the most prominent multisignatory statements about climate change have not published extensively in the peer-reviewed climate literature. We examined a subsample of the 50 most-published (highest- expertise) researchers from each group. Such subsampling facili- tates comparison of relative expertise between groups (normalizing differences between absolute numbers). This method reveals large differences in relative expertise between CE and UE groups (Fig. 2). Though the top-published researchers in the CE group have an average of 408 climate publications (median = 344), the top UE re- searchers average only 89 publications (median = 68; Mann– Whitney U test: W = 2,455; P < 10−15). Thus, this suggests that not all experts are equal, and top CE researchers have much stronger expertise in climate science than those in the top UE group. Finally, __ our __ prominence __ criterion provides an independent and approximate estimate of the relative scientific significance of CE and UE publications __ . Citation analysis complements publication analysis because it can, in general terms, capture the quality and impact of a researcher’s contribution—a critical component to overall scientific credibility—as opposed to measuring a research- er’s involvement in a field, or expertise (Materials and Methods). The citation analysis conducted here further complements the publication analysis because it does not examine solely climate- relevant publications and thus captures highly prominent re- searchers who may not be directly involved with the climate field. We examined the top four most-cited papers for each CE and UE researcher with 20 or more climate publications and found immense disparity in scientific prominence between CE and UE communities (Mann–Whitney U test: W = 50,710; P < 10−6; Fig. 3). CE researchers’ top papers were cited an average of 172 times, compared with 105 times for UE researchers. Because a single, highly cited paper does not establish a highly credible reputation but might instead reflect the controversial nature of that paper (often called the single-paper effect), we also considered the av- erage the citation count of the second through fourth most-highly cited papers of each researcher. Results were robust when only these papers were considered (CE mean: 133; UE mean: 84; Mann–Whitney U test: W = 50,492; P < 10−6). Results were ro- bust when all 1,372 researchers, including those with fewer than 20 climate publications, were considered (CE mean: 126; UE mean: 59; Mann–Whitney U test: W = 3.5 × 105; P < 10−15). Number of citations is an imperfect but useful benchmark for a group’s scientific prominence (Materials and Methods), and we show here that even considering all (e.g., climate and nonclimate) publications, the UE researcher group has substantially lower prominence than the CE group. __ We provide a large-scale quantitative assessment of the relative level of agreement, expertise, and prominence in the climate re- searcher community __ . We show that the __ expertise and prominence, two integral components of __ overall expert __ credibility, of climate researchers convinced by the evidence of ACC vastly overshadows that of the climate change skeptics and contrarians. This divide is even starker when considering the top researchers __ in each group. __ Despite media tendencies to present both sides in ACC debates __ (9), which can contribute to continued public misunderstanding re- garding ACC (7, 11, 12, 14), __ not all climate researchers are equal in scientific credibility and expertise __ in the climate system. __ This __ extensive __ analysis __ of the mainstream versus skeptical/contrarian researchers __ suggests a strong role for considering expert credibi- lity in the relative weight of and attention to these groups of re- searchers in __ future discussions in media, policy, and public __ forums regarding anthropogenic climate change __ . **

Warming is an existential risk – // __quickening__ // reductions is key to avoiding extinction Mazo 10– PhD in Paleoclimatology from UCLA
 * Jeffrey Mazo, Managing Editor, Survival and Research Fellow for Environmental Security and Science Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, 3-2010, “Climate Conflict: How global warming threatens security and what to do about it,” pg. 122 **


 * The best estimates for global warming to the end of the century range from 2.5-4.~C above pre-industrial levels, depending on the scenario. Even in the best-case scenario, the low end of the likely range is 1.goC, and in the worst 'business as usual' projections, which actual emissions have been matching, the range of likely warming runs from 3.1--7.1°C. Even keeping emissions at constant 2000 levels (which have already been exceeded), global temperature would still be expected to reach 1.2°C (O'9""1.5°C)above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century." __ Without early and severe reductions ____ in emissions, the effects of climate change in the second half of the twenty-first century are likely to be catastrophic __ for the stability and security of countries in the developing world - not to mention the associated human tragedy. __ Climate change could __ even __ undermine __ the strength and stability of emerging and __ advanced economies, beyond the knock-on effects on security of widespread state failure and collapse in developing countries __ .' And although they have been condemned as melodramatic and alarmist, many informed observers believe that __ unmitigated climate change __ beyond the end of the century __ could pose an existential threat to civilisation __ ." What is certain is that __ there is no precedent in human experience for such rapid change or such climatic conditions __, and __ even in the best case adaptation __ to these extremes __ would mean profound social, cultural and political changes __ . **

Warming is an existential risk—even if there’s uncertainty, we must act Scorse 8 ** – Professor of International Studies **
 * Jason, Assistant Professor @ Monterey Institute of International Studies @ Middlebury College, What Environmentalists Need to Know About Economics, Online Book **


 * __ Even though the science now confirms that human activity is contributing to global warming and that this warming is likely to continue if we do not dramatically reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, we are still highly uncertain __ as to what the end results of this warming will be (Parry et al, 2007). __ We can be sure about a few things-less Arctic ice, more storms, sea level rise- __ but the range of possibilities still includes some not-so-catastrophic outcomes along with some potentially cataclysmic scenarios; e.g. major new storm activity, sever draught, major species extinction, and the major inundation of coastal areas. Weitzman argues that __ a __ **__ small probability **of catastrophic damage may be enough to force us to err on the side of action** __** over inaction, __ even if the most likely average future benefits of action do not merit such a response. Putting a high premium on worst-case scenarios tilts us in the direction of a zero discount rate __ not __ because __ we actually value benefits to people 100 years from now as much as we value benefits today (as many environmentalists and the authors of the Stern Review would like us to believe), but because __ when our actions pose a reasonably significant risk of making the __ **__ world much less livable **in the future then we have an obligation to go out of our way to reduce that risk. This rationale is not operative when assessing the benefits of most types of** __**  environmental __ investments because they do not pose such dire scenarios. For example, cleaning up a waterway __ or expanding open space, while perhaps in society's interests, __ will not greatly impact humanity's chance for survival __ or greatly affect overall living standards to anywhere __ near the degree that climate change might. When posed with these more common scenarios we should revert back to the basic arguments for choosing the proper discount rate __ .  **

Unmitigated carbon emissions cause extinction. Romm 12 ** – Joe Romm is a Fellow at American Progress and is the editor of Climate Progress, “Science: Ocean Acidifying So Fast It Threatens Humanity’s Ability to Feed Itself,” 3/2/2012, [] **


 * __The world’s oceans may be turning acidic faster__ today __from human carbon emissions__ than they did during four major extinctions in the last 300 million years, when natural pulses of carbon sent global temperatures soaring, says a new study in Science. The study is the first of its kind to survey the geologic record for evidence of ocean acidification over this vast time period. “What we’re doing today really stands out,” said lead author Bärbel Hönisch, a paleoceanographer at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. “We know that life during past ocean acidification events was not wiped out—new species evolved to replace those that died off. But __if industrial carbon emissions continue at the current pace, we may lose organisms we care about__ —coral reefs, oysters, salmon.” That’s the news release from a major 21-author Science paper, “The Geological Record of Ocean Acidification” (subs. req’d). We knew from a 2010 Nature Geoscience study that the oceans are now acidifying 10 times faster today than 55 million years ago when a mass extinction of marine species occurred. But this study looked back over 300 million and found that “ __the unprecedented rapidity of CO2 release currently taking place” has put marine life at risk in a frighteningly unique way: … the current rate of (mainly fossil fuel) CO2 release stands out as capable of driving a combination and magnitude of ocean geochemical changes potentially unparalleled in__ at least the last ~300 My of __Earth history__, raising the possibility that **__ we are entering an unknown territory __**  of marine ecosystem change. That is to say, it’s not just that acidifying oceans spell marine biological meltdown “by end of century” as a 2010 Geological Society study put it. __We are also warming the ocean and decreasing dissolved oxygen concentration.__ **__ That is a recipe for mass extinction**.** __**  A 2009 Nature Geoscience study found that __ocean dead zones__ “devoid of fish and seafood” __are poised to expand and “remain for thousands of years.“__ And remember, we just learned from a 2012 new Nature Climate Change study that __carbon dioxide is “driving fish crazy” and threatening their survival__ . Here’s more on the new study: The oceans act like a sponge to draw down excess carbon dioxide from the air; the gas reacts with seawater to form carbonic acid, which over time is neutralized by fossil carbonate shells on the seafloor. But __if CO2 goes into the oceans too quickly, it can deplete the carbonate ions that corals, mollusks and some plankton need for reef and shell-building.__ **

Carbon sequestration is key Mack and Endemann 10 - ** *partner in the Houston office and global Chair of the Environmental Transactional Support Practice, provides over 25 years of experience advising on the transactional, environmental and regulatory issues associated with all sectors of the oil and gas industry, power (including both fossil and renewable energy), mining and chemical industries in the United States and abroad, in addition to the development, financing and entitlements for telecommunications and other industrial and public infrastructure facilities in the United States and offshore, ** JD, Faculty @ USD Law, provides comprehensive environmental counseling on energy and infrastructure projects, and represents clients in related litigation Joel and Buck, “Making carbon dioxide sequestration feasible: Toward federal regulation of CO2 sequestration pipelines,” Energy Policy, []

__ At present, approximately 50% of the United States’ base load electrical energy requirements are met by coal __ -ﬁred resources (ASME, 2005). While substantial expansion of renewable energy resources will eventually diminish reliance on coal resources, 1 coal-ﬁred power plants provide base load energy resources twenty-four hours per day, seven days a week, all year long. Base load power plants provide energy even when the wind is not blowing or the sun is not shining. While all power plants have the ability to generate a ﬁxed amount of full output, or ‘‘capacity,’’ expressed in megawatts, technologies vary as to the amount of their capacity which can be delivered over time, such as over a calendar year; this is also known as their ‘‘capacity factor.’’ Base load plants, such as coal-ﬁred, nuclear and many natural gas-ﬁred power plants, achieve very high capacity factors (nearly all of their capacity can be delivered over time subject to normal maintenance, scheduled outages or equipment failures). Some plants, such as certain __ natural gas-ﬁred power plants __, can be ‘‘cycled’’ (i.e., turned on or off, or their output can be increased or decreased on short notice to match peaking loads), __ will have lower capacity __ factors but can be matched more precisely to the demands of energy consumers. __ Wind and solar plants __, on the other hand, typically __ have much lower capacity __ factors (even if they have the same overall total ‘‘capacity’’), because their output cannot be load-matched and their energy output is dependent on environmental factors. __ As a result, a utility serving a load __ must blend base load, peaking and renewable resources to meet load requirements, and __ cannot ____ meet its load requirements solely on the basis of current wind or solar technologies __. 2 In many regional markets, both energy (a plant’s actual, delivered product) and capacity are tradeable commodities with an economic value, with the renewable energy facilities providing less value in the capacity markets. Indeed, __ electric utilities are __ generally __ required to maintain substantial capacity reserves to serve expected load, and renewable resources do not __ generally __ qualify __ to meet these capacity requirements As a result, and without regard to the relative merits of coal ﬁred power versus other sources of base load power (e.g., nuclear or natural gas-ﬁred power plants), __ considering __ (1) the __ United States’ large native coal resources __, (2) __ the lower cost of coal fuel __ against other base load technologies, __ and __ (3) __ the substantial existing investment in coal-ﬁred power plants, it is likely that coal-ﬁred power plants will for many decades continue to comprise a substantial part of the United States’ energy generation portfolio __. Indeed, the United States will have to make policy choices regarding which base load resources to pursue, as oil, coal, nuclear and natural gas fuels each have their own economic and environmental beneﬁts and drawbacks. 3 Against this backdrop, both the private and public sectors have begun to look closely at various technologies to address the high carbon footprint of traditional coal combustion technologies. In the United States, the average emission rate of CO2 from coal-ﬁred power generation is 2.095 pounds per kilowatt hour, nearly double the 1.321 pounds per kilowatt hour for natural gas (DOE, 2000). 4 Among the technologies receiving the most such attention to reduce CO2’s impacts is CO2 sequestration. CO2 sequestration involves removing the CO2 from the fuel, either before, during, or after combustion, and then doing something with it to avoid its release to the atmosphere. While other greenhouse gases (e.g., methane) are more potent in terms of global warming effects per unit of mass, __ the CO2 emissions of industrialized economies are so great as to dwarf the contributions from other gases in terms of overall impact on global warming. Hence the focus on CO2 sequestration __ technologies. The size and impact of this challenge is daunting—while coal resources provide approximately half of the energy generated annually in the United States, coal-ﬁred power plants emit almost 80% (1.8 billion metric tons per year) of the total CO2 emissions from power plants in the United States (DOE, 2000). The magnitude of this challenge cannot be underestimated. Using the above production ﬁgures, coal-ﬁred power plants in the United States emit approximately 900 billion cubic meters of CO2 annually. 5 The current CO2 pipeline system, though, handles only 45 million metric tons of CO2 per year over 3500 miles of pipe (Nordhaus and Pitlick, 2009). 6 Thus, __ to the extent that the United States has a policy goal of sequestering and transporting any appreciable fraction of CO2 emissions __ from coal-ﬁred power plants, the required __ infrastructure investment will require at least a 40-fold increase __. 7 While such an undertaking presents obvious practical and economic challenges, it demonstrates that __ a new vision is required if the United States is going to develop a sequestration infrastructure to meet this challenge on any time frame that is reasonably coincident with reducing near- to medium-term impacts from global climate change __. 8

James, “SENATE ENVIRONMENT AND PUBLIC WORKS COMMITTEE,” []
 * CCS solves and immediate action is necessary **
 * Rogers 7 ** ** - *CEO of Duke Energy **

Carbon capture and storage ( __ CCS __ ) for coal-fired power plants __ is a critical technology if we are to achieve our environmental goals while continuing to use our abundant domestic coal resources. __ CCS captures the CO2 from the power plant and channels it underground for permanent storage in deep geological formations. However, this storage capacity is not available everywhere and, contrary to some statements I’ve seen recently, the technology itself is not fully developed and ready for deployment. We believe __ CCS __ ultimately __ will __ prove to __ be one of the least-cost ways to reduce CO2 __, and we are actively involved in projects to advance the research. Duke Energy is hosting a small-scale Phase II sequestration demonstration project at its East Bend power plant in Kentucky, which will involve injection of CO2 into deep saline reservoirs in the area, between 3,000 and 4,000 feet below the surface. If the site is determined to be suitable, about 10,000 tons of CO2 would be injected in 2008. The sequestration will be subject to monitoring, measurement and verification. Duke Energy’s commitment to CCS also includes membership in three DOE-funded carbon sequestration regional partnerships (the Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership, the Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium and the Southeast Regional Carbon Partnership) which are collecting, sharing and assessing data. DOE’s National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) manages a number of regional sequestration consortia, creating a nationwide network to help identify the best technologies, regulations and infrastructure needed for carbon capture and storage. These partnerships will support multiple small-scale projects that will provide invaluable information on siting, monitoring, evaluation and public acceptability of carbon sequestration. __ Expanded federal financial support will be necessary __ to continue the process of demonstrating geologic sequestration. USCAP has advocated that Congress fund at least three full-scale CO2 injection demonstration projects, each at a scale equivalent to the CO2 emissions produced by a large coal-fired power plant. 7 The MIT Future of Coal study calls for three to five demonstration projects at a projected cost of $500 million to $1 billion over eight years. 8 In addition to proving the technology and geology for sequestration, a number of critical regulatory and legal issues will need to be resolved. As USCAP has stated, “Congress should require the EPA to promulgate regulations promptly to permit long-term geologic sequestration of carbon dioxide from stationary sources.” 9 In addition to developing an appropriate regulatory system that will specify the ground rules for sequestration projects and enhance public acceptability, Congress should also provide appropriate protections against costly litigation and liability claims. The potential for significant liability claims and litigation defense costs, even when facility operators comply with all regulatory requirements, will be a significant damper on the commercial development of sequestration facilities. __ Given the speed with which we will need to put sequestration capacity into operation, we cannot __ simply __ wait __ to see if the common law in each state develops in a way that acceptably moderates these liability and litigation risks. Instead, I expect that the legal and liability issues must be settled before any company will feel comfortable moving forward with a large-scale CCS project. Finally, despite all the seeming activity described above, __ CCS development needs a __ much greater __ sense of urgency if we are truly to respond to the climate problem __. To paraphrase an MIT economist who has looked at this problem – __ if CCS doesn’t work, we are in big, big trouble __. I would characterize the current focus on __ CCS __ as something of a hobby. It __ should __ be an obsession, and __ receive a great deal more attention and resources __.

Interdisciplinary Study, The Future of Coal, []
 * Even if regulations aren’t likely now, the plan is key to convincing the world that emissions can be cut without economic cost **
 * MIT **** 7 **

Washington, DC – Leading __ academics from an interdisciplinary __ Massachusetts Institute of Technology ( __ MIT) panel issued a report today that examines how the world can continue to use coal, an abundant and inexpensive fuel, in a way that mitigates __, instead of worsens, __ the global warming crisis __. __ The study __, "The Future of Coal – Options for a Carbon Constrained World," __ advocates __ the __ U.S. __ assume global __ leadership on this issue __ through adoption of significant policy actions. Led by co-chairs Professor John Deutch, Institute Professor, Department of Chemistry, and Ernest J. Moniz, Cecil and Ida Green Professor of Physics and Engineering Systems, the report states that carbon capture and sequestration ( __ CCS) is the criticalenabling technology to help reduce CO2 emissions significantly while also allowing coal to meet the world's pressing energy needs __. According to Dr. Deutch, "As the world's leading energy user and greenhouse gas emitter, __ the U.S. must take the lead in showing the world CCS can work. Demonstration of __ technical, economic, and institutional features of __ CCS __ at commercial scale coal combustion and conversion plants __ will give policymakers and the public confidence that a practical carbon mitigation control option exists, will reduce cost of CCS should carbon emission controls be adopted, and will maintain the __ low-cost __ coal option __ in an environmentally acceptable manner." Dr. Moniz added, "There are many opportunities for enhancing the performance of coal plants in a carbon-constrained world – higher efficiency generation, perhaps through new materials; novel approaches to gasification, CO2 capture, and oxygen separation; and advanced system concepts, perhaps guided by a new generation of simulation tools. An aggressive R&D effort in the near term will yield significant dividends down the road, and should be undertaken immediately to help meet this urgent scientific challenge." Key findings in this study: __ Coal is __ a low-cost, per BTU, __ mainstay of both the developed and developing world, and its use is projected to increase __. Because of coal's high carbon content, __ increasing use will exacerbate the problem of climate change unless coal plants are deployed with __ very high efficiency and large scale __ CCS __ is implemented. __ CCS is the critical enabling technology because it allows significant reduction in CO2 emissions while allowing coal to meet future energy needs __. A significant charge on carbon emissions is needed in the relatively near term to increase the economic attractiveness of new technologies that avoid carbon emissions and specifically to lead to large-scale CCS in the coming decades. __ We need large-scale __ demonstration projects of the technical, economic and environmental performance of an integrated __ CCS __ system. __ We should proceed with carbon sequestration projects as soon as possible __. Several integrated large-scale demonstrations with appropriate measurement, monitoring and verification are needed in the United States over the next decade with government support. This is important for establishing public confidence for the very large-scale sequestration program anticipated in the future. __ The regulatory regime for __ large-scale commercial __ sequestration should be developed with __ a greater sense of __ urgency __, with the Executive Office of the President leading an interagency process. The U.S. government should provide assistance only to coal projects with CO2 capture in order to demonstrate technical, economic and environmental performance. Today, IGCC appears to be the economic choice for new coal plants with CCS. However, this could change with further RD&D, so it is not appropriate to pick a single technology winner at this time, especially in light of the variability in coal type, access to sequestration sites, and other factors. The government should provide assistance to several "first of a kind" coal utilization demonstration plants, but only with carbon capture. Congress should remove any expectation that construction of new coal plants without CO2 capture will be "grandfathered" and granted emission allowances in the event of future regulation. This is a perverse incentive to build coal plants without CO2 capture today. Emissions will be stabilized only through global adherence to CO2 emission constraints. __ China and India are unlikely to adopt carbon constraints unless the U.S. does so and leads the way in the development of CCS technology __. Key changes must be made to the current Department of Energy RD&D program to successfully promote CCS technologies. The program must provide for demonstration of CCS at scale; a wider range of technologies should be explored; and modeling and simulation of the comparative performance of integrated technology systems should be greatly enhanced.

Jay, “Incentives for Near-Term Carbon Dioxide Geological Sequestration,” Carnegie Mellon, []
 * Only the plan is modeled – BRIC countries won’t cut emissions unless they can avoid economic cost **
 * Apt et al 7 ** ** – PhD in Physics @ MIT, Professor of Technology, Tepper School of Business and Engineering and Public Policy **

__ The __ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( __ IPCC __ ) Fourth Assessment Report __ projects that if current greenhouse gas emissions trends continue, the average global temperatures in __ 2090- __ 2099 ____ will b __ e 3.6 – __ 10 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than average temperatures in 1980-1999 __. 20 When past emissions are factored in, __ the United States is responsible for just over a quarter of all anthropogenic CO2 __ from fossil fuels currently in the atmosphere. Europe, China, and India are responsible for 19%, 9%, and 3% respectively. __ The EU has agreed to reduce emissions __ to 8% below 1990 levels by 2012; __ the United States has made no such commitments __, although several states and groups of states have begun to make commitments. EU emissions are the same as in 1990; U.S. emissions have increased by 20%. And because a large fraction of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere for over a century, the largest single share of atmospheric CO2 will continue to belong to the United States for many decades, despite China’s growth. __ If no action is taken to reduce its emissions __, the Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook estimates that __ the US will emit approximately 8,000 million metric tonnes __ (8,800 million short tons) __ of CO2 by 2030 __ , an increase over 2005 emission levels of more than 33 percent. 21 27 __ Since the United States has put the largest single share of CO2 into the air, it is under intense pressure to begin to take the lead in reducing it. __ In a few decades, __ China, India, Brazil, and other developing countries also will have to undertake serious controls. But they will not do so until the U.S. takes the lead and shows how it can be done in an efficient and affordable way. __ By seizing the opportunity provided by industrial coal gasification, __ the nation can get the experience required to reduce the technical and commercial unknowns of carbon dioxide capture and sequestration at commercial scale __ within the next decade. Coal combustion is responsible for 30% of the total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions; coal and petcoke together account for 32% of the total U.S. GHG emissions. The sources and sector uses of greenhouse gases in the 2005 U.S. economy are shown in figure 28 below.

Past 2NRs -T-pipelines -Jackson Vanik -Oil DA -Competitiveness K -Expertism K -NEPA CP
 * NEG **

1NC Round 1 v. Policy Bering Strait: NEPA CP, Cap K, Cybersecurity Politics, and T-in; 2NR: Cybersecurity