BFJR+Lindsey+&+Olivia

// ** We will run a combination of relations + warming or relations + multilat/warming. ** // **//Possible relations scenarios: LA wars (Rochin), Border Terr (Ayson), Econ/Heg (Harris & Burrows, Khalilizad)//**

// ** Adv 1: Relations ** // // ** Energy cooperation is key to a SUSTAINABLE partnership – boosts regional economy, solves Mexican violence and reverses Latin anti-US sentiment ** // // ** Reyes 13 ** – JD, member of the USA Today Board of Contributors // // (Raul, April, “Opinion: President Obama has the chance to improve US/Mexico relations,” []) // BB __ Obama __ ... __ problems __. // SEQUENCING is vital – CLIMATE cooperation FIRST spills over to the rest of relations // // Donnelly 10 ** – Program Associate, Mexico Institute @ Wilson Center ** // // ** (Robert, “U.S.-Mexico Cooperation on Renewable Energy: Building a Green Agenda,” []) ** //** BB ** Only Obama solves – reverses Anti-US sentiment throughout Latin America Valencia 13 ** - New York-based political analyst and is a contributing writer for Global Voices Online ** // US-Mexico climate cooperation prevents Latin skirmishes from escalating to war // // Barry 13 ** – senior policy analyst at the Center for International Policy, where he directs the TransBorder project, he specializes in immigration policy, homeland security, border security and the outsourcing of national security, has authored or co-authored more than twenty books on Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, food aid, the United Nations, free trade and U.S. foreign policy ** // // ** (Tom, “Changing Perspectives on US-Mexico Relations,” []) ** //** BB **
 * Thinking BEYOND security is key – energy cooperation overcomes alternate impediments and creates a resilient partnership **
 * Miller and DeLeon 9 ** - *Stephanie, consultant on U.S.-Latin America relations and was formerly the Research Associate for the Americas Project on the National Security Team. Born in Venezuela with family from Colombia, Miller earned her degree from Duke University in International Comparative Studies with a focus on Latin America. She currently lives in Bogotá, Colombia, **Rudy, Senior Vice President of National Security and International Policy at American Progress**
 * (“Transcending the Rio Grande,” [])//BB// **
 * //__The ....__ __hemisphere__ . // **
 * Discussant Johanna Mendelson Forman stressed the linkages connecting climate change, energy, and economic development. __It i....__ **__ financing __** . **
 * (Robert, “U.S. and Latin America: Economic Cooperation without Militarization?,” [])//BB// **
 * // In ... __themselves__ . // **

** It’s ...responsibilities. ** Latin American wars go global Rochin 94 ** –Professor of Political Science ** // Relations solve border terrorism and drug networks // // Storrs 6 ** (K. Larry Storrs, Specialist in Latin American Affairs, Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of CRS, 1/18/2006 “Mexico’s Importance and Multiple Relationships with the United States”, []) ** //** JG ** The impact is an attack on US soil McCaul 12 ** – JD @ St. Mary’s, former federal prosecutor ** // Nuclear war // // Ayson 10 ** - Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington ** // // ** (Robert, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 33.7, InformaWorld) ** //** BB ** We solve the root cause of terorrism Relich 11 ** (Natalie Relich coordinated and oversaw the distribution of 835 solar-powered lights to rural communities and schools in the Central Plateau and Port au Prince region of Haiti. Created, distributed, and analyzed surveys to farmers in the Central Plateau in order to monitor and track the impact of solar powered lights for farmers and their families. “Solving the energy poverty problem” [])//BK ** __ These .... __ __ link __ **.
 * (James, Professor of Political Science at Okanagan University College, Discovering the Americas: the evolution of Canadian foreign policy towards Latin America, pp. 130-131)//BB// **
 * // While.... chapter. // **
 * __Sharing .i__ ssues. **
 * (Michael, “A LINE IN THE SAND: COUNTERING CRIME, VIOLENCE AND TERROR AT THE SOUTHWEST BORDER,” UNITED STATES HOUSE COMMITTEE ON HOMELAND SECURITY, Lexis)//BB// **
 * //Terrorism remains a __serious threat to the security of the United States__ . The Congressional ¶ Research Service reports that between September 2001 and September 2012, there have been 59 ¶ homegrown violent jihadist plots within the United States. __Of ....__// **// __ destruction __**__.__** //
 * But .....response. **

A recession’s coming – stats prove and consumer confidence means nothing
Pineros 8/1 (Brittany, programme manager of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, “The US is headed for 'another recession' in 2014”,[]) // lm // // Four...officials. //

// ** Latin energy connectivity is key to growth ** // // ** Noriega and Cardenas 12 ** – *Former US State Dept Official, **director with Vision Americas** // // ** (“An action plan for US policy in the Americas,” December, []) ** //** BB ** US growth solves great power war Khalilzad 11 ** – PhD, Former Professor of Political Science @ Columbia, Former ambassador to Iraq and Afghanistan ** // These wars go nuclear // // Harris and Burrows 9 ** - *Mathew, PhD European History @ Cambridge, counselor in the National Intelligence Council (NIC), **Jennifer, a member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit // // (“Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis” []) // BB Increased Potential for Global Conflict Of .... __ world. __
 * Key points in this Outlook: **
 * __America’s...__ __States__ . **
 * (Zalmay Khalilzad was the United States ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the United Nations during the presidency of George W. Bush and the director of policy planning at the Defense Department from 1990 to 1992. "The Economy and National Security" Feb 8 [])//BB// **
 * // Today, ... __ regions __ . // **

**Advantage 2: Warming**

(William, “Expert credibility in climate change,” National Academy of Sciences, p. 12107-12109)//BB Preliminary ...__change__.
 * Global warming is real and human induced – top climate scientists agree **
 * Anderegg et al 10 ** – PhD Candidate @ Stanford in Biology

Warming causes extinction
Deibel ‘7 [Terry L. Deibel, professor of IR @ National War College, 2007, Foreign Affairs Strategy, Conclusion: American Foreign Affairs Strategy Today] Droughts... planet.

(Jeffrey Mazo, Managing Editor, Survival and Research Fellow for Environmental Security and Science Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, 3-2010, “Climate Conflict: How global warming threatens security and what to do about it,” pg. 122)//BB// // The..... __changes__. // // ** Technical assistance for renewables significantly reduces greenhouse gases ** // // ** COCEF 12 ** - La Comisión de Cooperación Ecológica Fronteriza // // (“Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy and Transportation: Project Opportunities in the U.S. – Mexico Border Region,”[]) // BB __ This __ .... ** __ manager __ **. (Duncan, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, [])//BB The..... __ resources __
 * Warming is an existential risk – //__quickening__// reductions is key to avoiding extinction **
 * Mazo 10 ** – PhD in Paleoclimatology from UCLA
 * Mexico is key: **
 * First – production – they have ENORMOUS renewable energy potential **
 * Wood 10 ** – PhD in Political Studies @ Queen’s, Professor @ ITAM in Mexico City

Second – technology transfer – Mexico will spread the green tech globally
Huacuz 5 (Jorge M. Huacuz, PhD @ UC-San Diego in physics, specialist in unconventional energy sources, president of the national association of solar energy in Mexico November 2005 “The road to green power in Mexico – reflections on the prospects for the large-scale and sustainable implementation of renewable energy” Energy Policy 33.16 // JG) // // The..... // work. // ** Third – international cooperation – Mexican leadership leads to GLOBAL climate agreements ** // // ** O’Neill 13 ** – PhD in Government @ Harvard, senior fellow for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, a nonpartisan foreign-policy think tank and membership organization // // (Shannon, “Mexico Makes It: A Transformed Society, Economy, and Government,” Foreign Affairs, 92.2) // BB __ If .... __** __ accords __ **.


 * Adv 3: Multilat **

Warming is real – anthropogenic CO2 overwhelms natural causes
Hansen, environmental science professor, et al., ’13 [J. Hansen and Makiko Sato, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University adjunct professor of Earth and Environmental Science; and Reto Ruedy, Trinnovim – Goddard Center scientific support, 1/15/13, “Global Temperature Update Through 2012,”[], accessed 1/19/13, JTF] *Climate forcing – an imposed perturbation of the planet's energy balance that would tend to alter global temperature. *El Nino – oceanic oscillation that tends to increase surface temperature * El Nina – oceanic oscillation that decreases surface temperature

Top climate scientists agree – it’s the most likely risk
Anderegg et al 10 – PhD Candidate @ Stanford in Biology

(William, “Expert credibility in climate change,” National Academy of Sciences, p. 12107-12109) // BB //

Warming is reversible but the brink is now
Lemonick, Climate Central, ’12 [Michael D. Lemonick, senior staff writer at Climate Central, a non-profit climate reporting service, and a former senior science writer at Time magazine, 12/21/12, “It’s Not Too Late to Limit Global Temperatures - But Almost,” [], accessed 12/23/12, JTF]

==== Only the plan solves – climate cooperation must be sustainable – failing now ====

Mabey 9 (Nick Mabey, Founder of E3G, a foundation that wants to excel the sustainable future of the world, What does the Security Community need from a ¶ Global Climate Regime?, [], November 2009, 8/1/13, //CW)

==== Reliance on unilateralism will collapse US leadership and cause nuclear terrorism, disease, AIDS, poverty, and hunger - extinction ====


 * Montalván, 10 ** - a 17-year veteran of the U.S. Army including multiple combat tours in Iraq, master's of science from Columbia University's Graduate School of Journalism (Luis, “Multilateralism is Essential for Peace in the 21st Century” Huffington Post, 4/23, [])

==== All their impacts are inevitable in a world without multilateralism— multilat is key ====


 * Tharoor 3 ** ** ( ** Minister of State for Human Resources Development (Shashi, “Why America Still Needs the United Nations”, p. 67)

Mexico Leadership key to climate multilateralism
O’Neill 13 – PhD in Government @ Harvard, senior fellow for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, a nonpartisan foreign-policy think tank and membership organization

(Shannon, “Mexico Makes It: A Transformed Society, Economy, and Government,” Foreign Affairs, 92.2)//BB

Extinction outweighs – math is on our side
Bostrom, philosophy professor, ’11 [Nick Bostrom, Professor in the Faculty of Philosophy & Oxford Martin School, Director of the Future of Humanity Institute, and Director of the Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology at the University of Oxford, recipient of the 2009 Eugene R. Gannon Award for the Continued Pursuit of Human Advancement, holds a Ph.D. in Philosophy from the London School of Economics, 2011, “The Concept of Existential Risk,” Draft of a Paper published on ExistentialRisk.com, [], Accessed 07-04-2011]

[Might swap out with the Nearshoring advantage] **__ Solvency __** --aid is high now, but should be re-oriented towards renewables (Nancy, “A Sunny Future for Border Relations?,” [])//BB __ Amidst .... ____ cleaner future __.
 * Specifically – the US is key **
 * Hartsoch 11 ** – MA @ San Jose State, Senior Vice President of Marketing and Sales for SolFocus

Renewables solve:
(Felicity, “Mexico offers tantalising prospect of a dawning major market,” [])//BB Solar... Hanhausen.
 * 1) Quickly – outside expertise is key **
 * Carus 13 ** - UK journalist, regularly reporting on clean energy policy and finance from California for a global audience

2) They can overcome conventional energy sources
IPCC 11 (Intergovernmental panel on climate change, May 2011 “IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation: Summary for Policymakers” [|http://www.uncclearn.org/sites/www.uncclearn.org/files/inventory/ipcc_summary_for_pm.pdf,//] JG) The .. technologies.

3) They will catch on – the green energy revolution is at the tipping point.
__ Low... __ faster.
 * Maslin et al 11 ** – Professor at Department of Geography at University College of London (Mark, “Global health and climate change: moving from denial and catastrophic fatalism to positive action”, 2011; [])//Beddow