Cal+and+Maddie

=Plan=


 * Plan: The United States federal government should accelerate the phased withdrawal of its military presence in the Republic of Iraq**

=1AC- US Credibilty Scenario=

Drawdown to 50,000 will happen inevitably – Obama has promised full withdrawal and the world is watching – he’ll back off of the commitment now
Michael ** Schwartz ** (Professor of Sociology and Faculty Director of the Undergraduate College of Global Studies at Stony Brook University) March **20 10 ** “Will US troops leave Iraq in 2011?” http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/05/26-1 I was asked recently by a … original 1000 projected US officials there.

Obama will delay withdrawal in response to violence
Walt, Professor of International Relations, associate of the Carnegie Endowment for Peace and a guest scholar at the Brookings Institution and presently serves on the editorial boards of Foreign Policy, Security Studies, International Relations, and the Journal of Cold War Studies ,  2K9  (Stephen, “Restoring Solvency”, December, http://americanreviewmag.com/articles/Restoring-solvency) During the presidential campaign, Obama …  be extremely difficult to solve.

Delaying withdrawal past the SOFA agreement creates policy tunnel vision – plan causes focus shift to the root causes of violence
Stephen M. ** Walt ** ( Robert and Renée … __ before Iraq is finally stable __.

Scenario _1_ is US Credibility:

Flip flopping on the withdrawal commitment will obliterate US credibility and global political capital
Raed ** Jarrar ** (senior fellow on the Middle East at Peace Action) and Erik Leaver (research fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies) March 20** 10 ** “ Sliding Backwards on Iraq?” [] Last week, President __Obama's__ out-of-… war into their own hands.

Sticking to the withdrawal plan is the lynchpin to US credibility - Delay undermines the government - plan sends a key signal that deter adversaries
William C. ** Martel ** (associate professor of international security studies at The Fletcher School at Tufts University) July **20 09 ** “Reprinted from USA Today” http://fletcher.tufts.edu/news/2009/op-eds/Martel_July1.shtml __ Sticking to deadlines boosts U.S. credibility __, … __catastrophe carries great strategic risks.__

This embolden insurgents, crush US credibility
Raed ** Jarrar ** (Iraqi-born political analyst, and a Senior Fellow with Peace Action based in Washington, DC.) May 26, **20 10 ** “ Don’t Reward Violence in Iraq by Extending US Troop Withdrawal Deadline” http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/05/26-1 __ If the Obama administration reneges … sent back to square one __.

__The invasion of Iraq has … don't forget. They strike back ."__
 * This signal of delay sparks balancing behavior that causes miscalc and nuclear war**
 * Arnove **, BA from Oberlin College, and a MA and Ph.D. from Brown University, Rhode Island, where he studied in the Modern Culture and Media Program, **20 06 ** (Anthony, “The Logic of Withdrawal The eight reasons why leaving Iraq now is the only sensible option”, http://www.alternet.org/world/34122/?page=entire)

Overstaying Iraq crushes credibility – opens multiple scenarios for extinction
Nye & Armitage, ‘7 Distinguished Service Professor at Harvard University and President of Armitage International (Joseph & Richard, *Note: Report was in collaboration with about 50 other congressmen, “CCIS Commission of Smart Power – A Smarter, more Secure America”, []) Today’s Challenges __The twenty-first …__. We must strike a balance between

No other missed deadline matters – the only ones that matter are the ones Obama will renege on now
Raed ** Jarrar ** (senior fellow on the Middle East at Peace Action)March **20 09 ** “ THANK YOU OBAMA!” online __Obama__ 's speech on friday was … +non-combat) __before decemeber 31st 2011__.

=1AC- Iraqi Escalation Scenario=

Delaying withdrawal creates the perception that we are trying to impose policies on the Iraqi government – causes instability
Cordesman, holds the Arleigh A. Burke … __is seek- ing to prevent__.

This perception spills over to the rest of the security relationship – collapses our bilateral defense arrangements
Raed Jarrar  (senior fellow on the Middle East at Peace Action)  and  Erik  Leaver  (research fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies) March 20 10  “ Sliding Backwards on Iraq?” [] The Iraqi media has been … in the bilateral security agreement ."

Iraqi violence is sustained because they think violence is the only way to get us out – sticking to the timetable is key
Juan Cole  (Richard P. Mitchell Collegiate Professor of History at the University of Michigan, specializes in the middle east and southeast asia) April 20 09  “Juan Cole: Obama's First Hundred Days in the Greater Middle East” [] The Obama administration has succeeded … a US departure from their country.

US occupation divides the population – ensures sectarian conflict
Arnove, BA from Oberlin College, and a MA and Ph.D. from Brown University, Rhode Island, where he studied in the Modern Culture and Media Program,  2K6  ( Anthony, “The Logic of Withdrawal The eight reasons why leaving Iraq now is the only sensible option”, http://www.alternet.org/world/34122/?page=entire) Perhaps the greatest fear of … __Iraq into the Iraqi government .__

No offense – Troops still deployed will not be performing military operations – just non-combat training and support missions
Peter Symonds  (writer for the Centre for Research on Globalization) June 20 10  “ US consolidates occupation of Iraq” http://www.a-w-i-p.com/index.php/2010/06/10/us-consolidates-occupation-of-iraq The reality is entirely different. … beyond 2011, most likely at Balad.”

Now is key – Iraq is stable but extremely fragile now
On the positive side of … the "window of highest risk
 * McGurk, 10 ** - International Affairs Fellow in Residence at the Council on Foreign Relations (Brett H. McGurk, April 2010, “Iraq: Struggling Through 'Highest Risk' Window” [])

Its try or die – even if withdrawal increases violence – that’s inevitable now
Stephen M. Walt  ( Robert and Renée Belfer Professor of International Affairs at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government) June 20 09  “ Bush's gift to Obama” [] It is of course … before Iraq is finally stable.

Iraqi instability spills over
Matthew Stannard 20 06   “Military's dilemma -- stay or leave; Iraq too complex to lend itself to easy solutions, experts say”, The San Francisco Chronicle, l/n 12/3 "If we just depart, … up right back" there again.

War goes nuclear Steinbach 20 02  [John, Israeli Nuclear weapons: a threat to piece, 3/3 http://www.converge.org.nz/pma/mat0036.htm] lp  Meanwhile, the existence of an …   conflict could trigger a world conflagration  ."

Even after withdrawal the US will still be able to exercise leverage over the Iraqi Security Force
Peter Symonds  (writer for the Centre for Research on Globalization) June 20 10  “ US consolidates occupation of Iraq” http://www.a-w-i-p.com/index.php/2010/06/10/us-consolidates-occupation-of-iraq Under the 2008 agreement, the US … beyond 2011, most likely at Balad.”

Sticking within the bounds of the timeline and withdrawing troops is key – troops cant maintain stability
Stephen M. Walt  ( Robert and Renée Belfer Professor of International Affairs at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government) June 20 09  “ Bush's gift to Obama” [] The dazzling incompetence of the … doing little to reduce them.

=1AC- Human Rights=

US use of collective punishment deliberately kills many innocent civilians
__The U.S. Army applied the method … members of the National Guard__
 * MHRI 5 ** [“First Periodical Report of Monitoring Net of Human Rights in Iraq”, http://www.brusselstribunal.org/survey111105.htm#6]

Human rights violations by the US military are perceived internationally.
__ US military forces will increasingly … as a protector of human rights .__
 * Washington Post**, July 23, **2000**

Loss of human rights credibility tanks US soft power.
Doug ** Cassel, ** Director of the [|Center for Civil and Human Rights] at the University of Notre Dame Law School. **“** Next President Must Restore America’s Human Rights Credibility  .” M ay 21, **20 08 .** []

What can the next President … __ weakens this nation’s voice abroad ____.”__

U.S. soft power prevents 30 regional conflicts from going nuclear
Joseph S. **__ Nye __** Jr., created the theory … the Cold War,” Washington Quarterly)

As a result of such disjunctions … and alliances, and global institutions.

Abuses by the US military spark anti-Americanism.
Vivienne ** Walt **, Globe Correspondent. “ Bitterness grows in Iraq over deaths of civilians.”  8/4/ **20 03 **. http://www.universalfriends.org/bitterness%20grows.html BAGHDAD -- It was 10:30 on a sweltering … .'' His brother was killed July 9.

Devin Hartman , Writer for the University Wire. 4/24/ 20 07 . “Ending terrorism involves more than fighting a war.” Terrorism prevention is instantly associated … sentiment would be strongly diminished.
 * That’s the root cause of terrorism – Plan is key to restore our global image **

Causes US retaliation and global nuclear war
Schwartz-Morgan 20 01 (Nicole- Asst. Prof., Politics and Economics, Royal Military College of Canada,” Wild Globalization and Terrorism: Three Scenarios,” World Future Society, @http://www.wfs.org/mmmorgan.htm) __The terrorist act can reactivate __ … __be themselves merchants or terrorists. __

US human rights credibility in Iraq is key to democracy promotion
[|Marina **Ottaway**], et al. , Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “ Democracy Promotion in the Middle East: Restoring Credibility.” June 12, **20 08 **. http://carnegieendowment.org/events/?fa=eventdetail&id=1144 On June 12, 2008, the Carnegie Endowment … clearly rejects human right violations.

Solves global nuclear war – Middle east is key
Joshua Muravchik (Resident Scholar at the AEI) 20 01   “Democracy and Nuclear Peace” July 14, http://www.npec-web.org/Syllabus/Muravchik.pdf, Date Accessed 7/29/2006)   That this momentum has slackened …  may be still more remote

US military withdrawal from Iraq is the vital internal link to solving for human rights abuses **.** Ghali ** Hassan **, // contributor to Global Research. “ // How the US Erase Women’s Rights in Iraq.” October 7, **20 05 **. http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=1054 The U.S. is not the __“guardian” …__ human rights for all Iraqis.