Timothy+Yen+&+Alexis+Mungioli+(and+Andy+Hou)

Aff 1: AIIB

==== ==== ====China's rise is inevitable —- U.S. failure to seek membership in the AIIB sends the signal that it doesn't want to integrate China into global economic governance and crushes America's ability to shape the global order==== The United States has sensibly declared its intention to rebalance towards the Asia-Pacific AND writ large—than, respectively, excluding China and shunning its efforts.
 * Wyne, 15** —- contributing analyst at Wikistrat, and a global fellow with the Project for the Study of the 21st Century (4/7/15, Ali, "The American World Order and China's New Bank," http://warontherocks.com/2015/04/the-american-world-order-and-chinas-new-bank/, article downloaded on 5/3/16, JMP)

U.S. concerns over Chinese governance prevents efforts to positively reform the AIIB and facilitate multilateral diplomacy and deep cooperation with China
China's growing economic clout is complicating US efforts to maintain its grip on the world's AND route for deepening cooperation between the US and the People's Republic of China.
 * Edwards & Qahir, 15** —- *Associate Professor of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University, AND **Diplomacy graduate student at Seton Hall (4/6/15, Martin & Katayon, "US should stop blocking China's AIIB and join allies in new club," https://theconversation.com/us-should-stop-blocking-chinas-aiib-and-join-allies-in-new-club-39406, article downloaded 4/23/16, JMP)

====Engaging on the AIIB is critical —- it's the focal point for China's expanded international role and cooperation will help resolve Myanmar conflict and spillover to cybersecurity and the South China Sea ==== In 2011, U.S. president Barack Obama announced plans to "pivot AND . cooperation. Development lending could prove a minimally politically sensitive testing ground.
 * Noori, et. al, 15** —- Program Specialist, Middle East & North Africa Programs at United States Institute of Peace (8/24/15, Maral Noori, Daniel Jasper and Jason Tower, "Overcoming Barriers to U.S.-China Cooperation," http://www.usip.org/publications/2015/08/24/overcoming-barriers-us-china-cooperation, downloaded on 4/21/16, JMP)

Escalates into a major war with China
Editor's note: The following is a translation of Chapter 14 of the book If AND The Sino-U.S. War has begun. . ..
 * Chen, 5/28/16** —- veteran of the Tiananmen Square democracy movement; he has authored over ten books, writes a regular column for Radio Free Asia, and is regularly invited to speak on Voice of America Chinese, Pokong, was translated by Stacy Mosher, a translator and editor based in New York City, "This is How a Bloody U.S.-China War Could Start," http://nationalinterest.org/feature/how-bloody-us-china-war-could-start-16383, article downloaded on 6/13/16, JMP)

Cyber attacks cause nuclear war – accidents
Short fuses on U.S. and Russian strategic forces have particularly increased the AND a 2014 paper titled "Prompt Global Strike: China and the Spear".
 * Gady 15** (Franz Stefan, Associate Editor of The Diplomat, Senior Fellow with the EastWest Institute. Article quotes: James Cartwright, retired US Marine Corps General and eighth Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Greg Austin of the EastWest Institute in New York, and Pavel Sharikov of the Russian Academy of Sciences, "Could Cyber Attacks Lead to Nuclear War?", http://thediplomat.com/2015/05/could-cyber-attacks-lead-to-nuclear-war/)

South China Sea conflict goes nuclear.
Christensen 6/5/15 – Thomas J., Boswell professor of world politics and director of the China and the World Program at Princeton University, is a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, "China's Rising Military: Now for the Hard Part" http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-06-05/china-s-rising-military-now-for-the-hard-part One reason for this is that no consensus exists in East Asia on the territorial AND conditions in which a technologically superior foe attacks crucial targets with conventional weapons.

====The suspicious atmosphere allows military conflict to erupt at any time —- both sides must manage competition to prevent war and expand cooperation on global governance issues that represent existential risks==== The relationship between the United States and China has rightly been described as the most AND a marriage in which divorce is not an option. Divorce means war.
 * Shambaugh, 15** – professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, and a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution (David, "In a fundamental shift, China and the US are now engaged in all-out competition," South China Morning Post, 6/11/15, http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1819980/fundamental-shift-china-and-us-are-now-engaged-all-out?page=all //Red+JMP)

Failure to recalibrate U.S. economic policy toward China risks miscalculation that triggers great power conflict
Nye suggests that the greatest threat to U.S. influence may be not AND world order." Here's to hoping that the United States heeds that judgment.
 * Wyne, 15** —- contributing analyst at Wikistrat and a global fellow at the Project for the Study of the 21st Century (6/1/15, Ali, "Is America's Mind-set the Greatest Threat to Its Future?" http://nationalinterest.org/feature/america%E2%80%99s-mind-set-the-greatest-threat-its-future-13004?page=show, article downloaded 5/3/16, JMP) ***Joseph Nye is a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School and one of the most esteemed analysts of world affairs

Ensuring peaceful rise is necessary to prevent World War 3 —- lack of engagement on AIIB has wrecked U.S. leadership
It is very worrying for the world that American policy makers should be capable of AND us hope the appropriate lessons are learned. Pax Americana is still needed.
 * Lehmann, 15** —- Emeritus Professor at IMD, Lausanne (Switzerland), currently Visiting Professor at Hong Kong University and at NIIT University in Neemrana, Rajasthan (India) (4/2/15, Jean-Pierre Lehmann, "China And The US: The AIIB Fiasco &amp; America's Colossal Loss Of Face," http://www.forbes.com/sites/jplehmann/2015/04/02/china-and-the-us-the-aiib-fiasco-americas-colossal-loss-of-face/print/, article downloaded 6/14/16, JMP)

1ac Plan + Solvency —- Join AIIB
==== Plan: The United States federal government should substantially increase its diplomatic and economic engagement with the People's Republic of China over the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank with the purpose of joining the bank. ====

==== U.S. should engage China to join the AIIB —- allows it to exert net more influence ==== A growing number of countries are joining the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank AND best, working quietly with China, to ensure that it actually does.
 * Knight, 15 ** —- Faculty Director of the SIS Honors Program and Assistant Professor at American University's School of International Service and expert on international political economy (4/3/15, Sarah Cleeland Knight, "The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank – Three Questions for Sarah Cleeland Knight," [], article downloaded 5/11/16, JMP)

==== The plan will rebalance the relationship with China —- preventing a collision between the rising powers ==== LEE: And at the same time, you know, there is interesting AIIB AND which does come back to leadership. MABRY: Mmm hmm. Excellent.
 * Lee & Fullilove, 5/17/16 ** —- *President, East Asia Institute (South Korea), AND **Executive Director, Lowy Institute for International Policy (Australia) (Michael, "Crisis in Global Governance: A Conversation with Richard N. Haass and the Council of Councils,"[], article downloaded 5/30/16, JMP)

==== U.S. involvement will allow AIIB to safeguard its independence from China, develop higher standards and transparency, reverse perception of containment and boost the credibility of its Asia rebalance ==== China's new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has been the source of considerable AND improve the AIIB as a member, instead of opposing the bank altogether.
 * Lazarus, 3/2/16 ** —- MA candidate at The Fletcher School, Tufts University (Leland, "Why the U.S. Should Embrace the AIIB; There are compelling reasons for the U.S. to join China's new development bank," [], article downloaded 4/24/16, JMP)

==== U.S. participation in the AIIB ensures that China exercises constructive global leadership —- SQ sends the signal of containment ==== China's decision to create a new development bank for Asia is proving a highly divisive AND world economy and capitalise on China's growing willingness to exercise constructive global leadership.
 * Bergsten, 15 ** —- director emeritus and senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (3/15/15, Fred, "US should work with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank; Washington should sign up and bless the desire of its friends to join, writes Fred Bergsten," [], article downloaded 5/2/16, JMP)

The plan reverses the perception of hostility
Downplay the Current Mindset of Rivalry The great challenge of the century for future AND determine U.S. standing in the world in the Asian century.
 * Marston, 16 ** —- Southeast Asia analyst at a Washington, D.C., think tank (2/28/16, Hunter, "A Four-Point Plan for Reviving the U.S. Role in Asia," [], article downloaded 5/3/16, JMP)


 * Aff 2: SSA **

= SSA aff =

1ac ssa – plan
==== The United States federal government should substantially increase space transparency and confidence-building measures with the People's Republic of China, including information exchange for space activities, advanced notification for space policies, and enhanced space situational awareness capabilities and data exchange. ====

1ac ssa solvency
==== TCBMs solve—info sharing clarifies benign intentions of both parties in space and unseats the culture of secrecy embedded within both national space programs —- this posture shift underpins eventual political agreements that produce restraint and produce international SSA collaboration ==== Weeden and He 16. (Brian, former U.S. Air Force space and missile operations officer and currently technical adviser for Secure World Foundation, a non-profit organization dedicated to the long-term sustainable use of outer space. Xiao, Assistant Research Fellow, Division of International Strategy, U.S. Diplomacy and Politics @ Chinese Academy of Social Science, Institute of World Economic and Politics. "U.S.-China Strategic Relations in Space," US-China Relations in Strategic Domains. The National Bureau of Asian Research, Report #57, April 2016. [])//CB Transparency and confidence-building mechanisms for managing tensions and crises. The prospects of AND and improving them will result in positive externalities that will benefit all countries.

==== SSA collaboration is key to fill data gaps and prevent offensive behavior in space. ==== Weeden and Chow 12. (Brian, Secure World Foundation. Tiffany, Co-Lead @ Space Safety and Sustainability Working Group. "Taking a common-pool resources approach to space sustainability: A framework and potential policies," Space Policy. Accessed via ScienceDirect. July 2012.)//CB In any CPR the ability of resource appropriators to determine whether or not others are AND or rules of behavior without requiring traditional arms control measures or formal treaties.

1ac ssa – miscalc adv
==== Official US space posture demonstrates Sinophobic suspicions—rendezvous and proximity operations are seen as a cover for ASAT testing, destroying any support for Chinese space security proposals ==== Weeden and He 16. (Brian, former U.S. Air Force space and missile operations officer and currently technical adviser for Secure World Foundation, a non-profit organization dedicated to the long-term sustainable use of outer space. Xiao, Assistant Research Fellow, Division of International Strategy, U.S. Diplomacy and Politics @ Chinese Academy of Social Science, Institute of World Economic and Politics. "U.S.-China Strategic Relations in Space," US-China Relations in Strategic Domains. The National Bureau of Asian Research, Report #57, April 2016 [])//CB U.S. perceptions of China's development of space capabilities can best be described AND significant efforts at bilateral civil space cooperation between the United States and China.

==== Tensions are mounting —- the dual-use nature of space technology produces first-strike incentives and risks rapid escalation and miscalculation ==== Weeden and He 16. (Brian, former U.S. Air Force space and missile operations officer and currently technical adviser for Secure World Foundation, a non-profit organization dedicated to the long-term sustainable use of outer space. Xiao, Assistant Research Fellow, Division of International Strategy, U.S. Diplomacy and Politics @ Chinese Academy of Social Science, Institute of World Economic and Politics. "U.S.-China Strategic Relations in Space," US-China Relations in Strategic Domains. The National Bureau of Asian Research, Report #57, April 2016. [])//CB The development, testing, and employment of dual-use capabilities. One of AND space assets, which could cause the situation to escalate out of control.

==== Increased cooperation between the US and China over space is necessary to stop a space arms race ==== Weeden and He 16- Brian, Technical Advisor for Secure World Foundation and a former U.S. Air Force Officer, Xiao, writer, USE OUTER SPACE TO STRENGTHEN U.S.-CHINA TIES, ([]) JB With the end of the Cold War, outer space activities lost much of their AND capabilities, and increasing data sharing with each other and the spacefaring community.

==== Better SSA will resolve the inevitable space arms race between the US and China — co-operation is key ==== Moore 11 (Gregory J. Moore is associate professor in the Political Science Department of Zhejiang University's College of Public Administration, Hangzhou, China. He is the editor of (and author of chapters in) North Korean Nuclear Operationality: Implications for Northeast Asian Regional Security and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime (forthcoming), and numerous articles and chapters on Chinese foreign policy, "East Asian security, and international relations theory, An International Relations Perspective on the Science, Politics, and Potential of an Extraterrestrial Sino-US Arms Race", available online via ProQuest, TMP)

A space arms race is somewhat different than a terrestrial one for several AND would help address some of China's concerns about India's space aspirations as well.

Now is key – tensions are simmering to a boiling point
Billings 15 – editor of Scientific American, featured in The New York Times, The Washington Post, Scientific American, Popular Mechanics and many other publications. From 2006 to 2011, he was an editor at Seed Magazine, where he covered science and technology topics including astrophysics, space exploration, paleontology and robotics. He graduated in 2003 from the University of Minnesota with a degree in journalism. (Lee, "War in Space May Be Closer Than Ever", Scientific American, August 10, 2015,[]//dmeth) The world's most worrisome military flashpoint is arguably not in the Strait of Taiwan, AND a series of Chinese anti-satellite missile tests that began in 2007.

High risk of space war – space debris – goes nuclear
Billings 15 – editor of Scientific American, featured in The New York Times, The Washington Post, Scientific American, Popular Mechanics and many other publications. From 2006 to 2011, he was an editor at Seed Magazine, where he covered science and technology topics including astrophysics, space exploration, paleontology and robotics. He graduated in 2003 from the University of Minnesota with a degree in journalism. (Lee, "War in Space May Be Closer Than Ever", Scientific American, August 10, 2015,[]//dmeth) The prospect of war in space is not new. Fearing Soviet nuclear weapons launched AND Weeden says, though they could also be meant for more sinister intentions.

US-China cooperation is key to effective space debris mitigation measures
Pekkanen 15 - Lob and Gertrud Tamaki professor at the Jackson School of International Studies, in the University of Washington Seattle, works on the international relations of Japan and Asia, with a special interest in outer space governance, security, and policy, co-chairs the U.S.-Japan Space Forum (Saadia, "Frenemies In Space; China Needs To Protect Its Assets, Too", Forbes, August 26, 2015, [|http://www.forbes.com/sites/saadiampekkanen/2015/08/26/frenemies-in-space-china-needs-to-protect-its-assets-too/#727d36512959]//dmeth) It is common to equate Space Situational Awareness (SSA) only with U. AND be naïve, just responsible behavior for the U.S. too.

Cooperation over SSA leads to more effective space weather predictions
Weeden, Cefola, and Sankaran 2010-Brian, Technical Advisor for Secure World Foundation and a former U.S. Air Force Officer, Paul, PhD in engineering, Jaganath, Research Scholar at the Center for International and Security Studies, GLOBAL SPACE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS SENSORS, ([]) JB SSA can broadly be defined as characterizing the space environment and its effects on activities AND can make more efficient use of limited budgets and long spacecraft design times.

==== Increased cooperation between the US and China avoids miscalculation and reduces the possibility of space accidents ==== Hayes 09- Tracey, former commander of the 90th Missile Wing and former member of the Headquarters Air Force Space Command staff, PROPOSAL FOR A COOPERATIVE SPACE STRATEGY WITH CHINA, (file:///C:/Users/Josh%20Baime/Downloads/ADA530117.pdf) JB Prevent Crisis Escalation. Communication between the U.S. and China on space AND number of accidents and increase the safety of operating in the space environment.

==== Hazardous space weather coming now – causes grid blackouts, satellite collapse, trillion dollars in damages and – extinction ==== Hines, 15 (Nico, London editor of The Daily Beast; 07/29/15; "You'll Have 12 Hours to Get Ready for the Solar Storm That Could Paralyze the World"; [])//JPM LONDON — Last time it happened, in 1859, the world's telegraph machines sparked AND to $2 trillion, and the effects could be felt for years."

Grid collapse causes extinction
Rifkin '02 (Jeremy, the founder and president of the Foundation on Economic Trends, Fellow at the Wharton School's Executive Education Program The Hydrogen Economy: The Creation of the World-Wide Energy Web and the Redistribution of Power on Earth, p.163-164) It is understandable that we would be unmindful of the critical role that oil plays AND wired overhead, it is an invisible but indispensible presence in our lives.

SSA is critical to broader Space Weather readings
Sankaran 2010 (Dr. Paul Cefola is also an Adjunct Professor in the Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Department at the University at Buffalo, State University of New York.Brian Weeden is Technical Advisor for Secure World Foundation, and has fourteen years of professional experience in the national and international space operations, Jaganath Sankaran is a postdoctoral fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, "GLOBAL SPACE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS SENSORS", accessed through University of Michigan Library, TMP) 3. SSA TO SUPPORT CIVIL AND COMMERCIAL SAFETY SSA can broadly be defined as AND can make more efficient use of limited budgets and long spacecraft design times.

Current space weather predictions only give 12 hours of warning
Khomani and Watt 15- Nadia, staff writer, Holly, investigations correspondent, Earth could get just 12 hours' warning of damaging solar storm, ([]) JB Humanity would only have a 12-hour warning about the arrival of a "  AND  worst case scenario would only allow us 12 hours from observation to impact."

Space Weather events wreck global GPS
Met Office 16, (Met Office (Meteorological Office) is the United Kingdom's official national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills and a member of the Public Data Group,[], TMP) Low level space weather events occur on a regular basis and whilst they can be AND weather. Access to this service can be requested - Request Space Weather Account

GPS is CRITICAL to the economy – disruption wrecks every sector
Leveson 2015, (Irv Leveson is a Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University and economic and strategy consultant and founder of Leveson Consulting. He has done extensive work on GNSS markets and issues for more than 10 years. He is a member of the Institute of Navigation, and the American Economic Association and the National Association for Business Economics, "The Economic Benefits of GPS", [], TMP) Critical to many civilian applications and innovations, GPS brings great economic benefits. These AND and assistance. Responsibility for the content and findings rests with the author.

Economic collapse would destroy institutions and incites escalatory conflicts
Duncan 12 [Richard Duncan, chief economist at Singapore-based Blackhorse Asset Management, former financial sector specialist at the World Bank and global head of investment strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management and worked as a consultant for the IMF in Thailand during the Asia Crisis, author of three books on the global economic crisis, studied literature and economics at Vanderbilt University and international finance at Babson College, February 24, 2012, "The New Depression: The Breakdown of the Paper Money Economy"] The consequences of a New Great Depression would extend far beyond the realm of economics AND by an even more calamitous global war that killed approximately 60 million people.

SSA solves asteroids – the impact is extinction
Pelton 13, (Dr. Joseph N. Pelton is emeritus Director of the Space and Advanced Communications Research Institute (SACRI) at George Washington University, "Space Debris and Other Threats from Outer Space", Available online via SpringerLink, TMP) What is often not mentioned is that these natural debris and natural phenomena could actually AND can presumably be applied to help protect people here on Earth as well.


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