Taha+Fanaswala+and+Andrew+Liu

Andrew Liu: 19liuand@hawken.edu =Affirmative=

AIIB 1AC
====Plan: The United States federal government should substantially increase its diplomatic and economic engagement with the People's Republic of China over the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank with the purpose of joining the bank.====

Advantage 1
Scott Kennedy 15 —- Deputy Director of the Freeman Chair in China Studies and Director of the Project on Chinese Business and Political Economy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies(Scott; "What Went Wrong With U.S. Strategy on China's New Bank and What Should Washington Do Now?"; March 25^^th^^; https://www.chinafile.com/conversation/what-went-wrong-us-strategy-chinas-new-bank-and-what-should-washington-do-now)//pk In 2005, then United States Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick famously called on AND will be able to justly claim they are truly acting as responsible stakeholders.
 * ====AIIB is China's first signature contribution —- failure to engage it fuels perception of containment====**

U.S. has to play ball with the AIIB —- engagement on past institutions is no longer sufficient
In the meantime, China – a country whose say in the IMF is now AND world will have to come to terms with China's continued emergence and influence.
 * Soergel, 6/10/15** —- Economy Reporter at U.S. News (Andrew, "Amid U.S. Paralysis, China Cashing In; While Congress has failed to move forward with IMF reforms, Beijing is poised to boost its banking power," http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/06/10/asian-infrastructure-investment-bank-chinas-answer-to-western-marginalization, article downloaded on 6/7/16, JMP) ***Note —- Rajiv Biswas is Asia-Pacific chief economist at IHS Global Insight, an economic analysis firm

====Engaging on the AIIB is critical —- it's the focal point for China's expanded international role and cooperation will help resolve Myanmar conflict and spillover to cybersecurity and the South China Sea==== In 2011, U.S. president Barack Obama announced plans to "pivot AND . cooperation. Development lending could prove a minimally politically sensitive testing ground.
 * Noori, et. al, 15** —- Program Specialist, Middle East & North Africa Programs at United States Institute of Peace (8/24/15, Maral Noori, Daniel Jasper and Jason Tower, "Overcoming Barriers to U.S.-China Cooperation," http://www.usip.org/publications/2015/08/24/overcoming-barriers-us-china-cooperation, downloaded on 4/21/16, JMP)

South China Sea conflict goes nuclear.
Christensen 6/5/15 – Thomas J., Boswell professor of world politics and director of the China and the World Program at Princeton University, is a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, "China's Rising Military: Now for the Hard Part" http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-06-05/china-s-rising-military-now-for-the-hard-part One reason for this is that no consensus exists in East Asia on the territorial AND conditions in which a technologically superior foe attacks crucial targets with conventional weapons.

====The suspicious atmosphere allows military conflict to erupt at any time —- both sides must manage competition to prevent war and expand cooperation on global governance issues that represent existential risks==== The relationship between the United States and China has rightly been described as the most AND a marriage in which divorce is not an option. Divorce means war.
 * Shambaugh, 15** – professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, and a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution (David, "In a fundamental shift, China and the US are now engaged in all-out competition," South China Morning Post, 6/11/15, http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1819980/fundamental-shift-china-and-us-are-now-engaged-all-out?page=all //Red+JMP)

Expanding economic engagement key to maintain foundation for relations —- lowers risk of conflict
DR. DOLLAR: The leaders on the two sides, U.S. AND of the relationship. And then the risks of conflict become much greater.
 * Dollar, 15** —- Senior Fellow, John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings (9/30/15, David, "INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE AND CHINA'S RISE: HOW SHOULD THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN RESPOND?" http://www.brookings.edu//media/events/2015/09/30-international-economic-governance-chinas-rise/20150930_china_economic_governance_transcript.pdf, article downloaded 6/12/16, JMP)

Failure to recalibrate U.S. economic policy toward China risks miscalculation that triggers great power conflict
Nye suggests that the greatest threat to U.S. influence may not be AND world order." Here's to hoping that the United States heeds that judgment.
 * Wyne, 15** —- contributing analyst at Wikistrat and a global fellow at the Project for the Study of the 21st Century (6/1/15, Ali, "Is America's Mind-set the Greatest Threat to Its Future?" http://nationalinterest.org/feature/america%E2%80%99s-mind-set-the-greatest-threat-its-future-13004?page=show, article downloaded 5/3/16, JMP) ***Joseph Nye is a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School and one of the most esteemed analysts of world affairs

Ensuring peaceful rise is necessary to prevent World War 3 —- lack of engagement on AIIB has wrecked U.S. leadership
It is very worrying for the world that American policy makers should be capable of AND us hope the appropriate lessons are learned. Pax Americana is still needed.
 * Lehmann, 15** —- Emeritus Professor at IMD, Lausanne (Switzerland), currently Visiting Professor at Hong Kong University and at NIIT University in Neemrana, Rajasthan (India) (4/2/15, Jean-Pierre Lehmann, "China And The US: The AIIB Fiasco &amp; America's Colossal Loss Of Face," http://www.forbes.com/sites/jplehmann/2015/04/02/china-and-the-us-the-aiib-fiasco-americas-colossal-loss-of-face/print/, article downloaded 6/14/16, JMP)

Independently, the plan gives the U.S. critical influence to address a number of nuclear threats and propel cooperation to a new level
The founder of modern Singapore, Lee Kwan Yew, who passed away recently, AND the World Bank and others to work out how to play with it.
 * Chakravorti, 15** —- Senior Associate Dean of International Business & Finance at The Fletcher School at Tufts University and founding Executive Director of Fletcher's Institute for Business in the Global Context (4/20/15, Bhaskar, "China's New Development Bank Is a Wake-Up Call for Washington," https://hbr.org/2015/04/chinas-new-development-bank-is-a-wake-up-call-for-washington, article downloaded on 6/18/16, JMP)

Advantage 2
====The choices made in Asian infrastructure development now will determine the future of global warming – expanding renewable energy markets and building sustainable and climate resilient infrastructure through the AIIB are key to keep warming below 2 degrees==== //The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (the AIIB or the Bank) is poised// //AND// //with major long-term commercial benefits for many members of the AIIB.//
 * Nassiry and Nakhooda 16** – Darius Nassiry, head of the international cooperation department at the Global Green Growth Institute, investment manager with the Norwegian Investment Fund for Developing Countries (Norfund) Center for Global Development, Smita Nakhooda, international finance to support developing countries to respond to climate change, "The AIIB and the investment in action," 4/13/2016, https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/resource-documents/the_aiib_and_investment_in_action_final_20160413.pdf//TK//

//**====And AIIB success will kickstart global finance and lending institutions to increase sustainable development====**// //**Elgin-Cossart and Hart '15** - Senior Fellow and Director of China Policy at American Progress. She focuses on U.S. foreign policy toward China and works to identify new opportunities for bilateral cooperation, particularly on energy, climate change, and cross-border investment - Senior Fellow at American Progress, where she works on issues involving foreign policy, international development, and global conflict (Center for American Progress, "China's New International Financing Institutions Challenges and Opportunities for Sustainable Investment Standards," September 2015, https://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/21140703/RaceToTheTop-brief.pdf)// JB­­­ In recent years, China has moved into development finance in a very big way AND banks, and in the process, create a race to the top.

Now is key to prevent 2 degrees increase
The news is in: humans are totally failing in the global effort to stop AND goal will require dedication, international cooperation and a lot of hard work.
 * Harvey '14 ­- Chelsea Harvey is a science reporter for Business Insider. She is based in New York City (Chelsea Harvey, science reporter, "Here's How Little Time We Have Until Global Warming Is Out Of Control," September 2014, http://www.businessinsider.com/when-will-climate-change-be-out-of-control-2014-9 )// JB**

Consensus of global scientists agree – warming is real, anthropogenic and happening now
Human-caused climate change is happening and is accelerating; dangerous impacts are becoming AND to inform Americans about the scientific consensus regarding the realities of climate change.
 * Maibach et al '14** Distinguished Professor of Communication at George Mason University and Director of the Center for Climate Change Communication at GMU. (Edward Maibach, Teresa Myers, Anthony Leiserowitz, "Climate Scientists need to set the Record Straight: There is a scientific consensus that human caused climate change is happening," 5/7/14, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full)//NH

Climate change will be catastrophic and result in human extinction
In the Online Journal of Space Communication, Dr. Feng Hsu, a NASA AND our Sun" (Hsu 2010) (Fig. 2.1).
 * Flournoy Ph.D. 12** – Professor at the University of Ohio, Ph.D. and M.A. from the Univeristy of Texas, Postgraduate Associateship at the University of London, B.A. from Southern Methodist University, Editor of the Online Journal of Space Communications. Citing Dr. Feng Hsu, Senior Engineer and Manager at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (Don M., Ph.D., SpringerBriefs in Space Development, "Solar Power Satellites," 2012, Springer)//JSL

Loopholes and loose regulations in the AIIB now could cause backsliding – only U.S. involvement can correct course and ensure environmentally friendly regulations
Unfortunately, the AIIB's draft environmental and social framework, released last week, does AND as well as the comparative advantage of each institution in undertaking specific projects.
 * Elgin-Cossart and Hart '15** - Senior Fellow and Director of China Policy at American Progress. She focuses on U.S. foreign policy toward China and works to identify new opportunities for bilateral cooperation, particularly on energy, climate change, and cross-border investment - Senior Fellow at American Progress, where she works on issues involving foreign policy, international development, and global conflict (Center for American Progress, "China's New International Financing Institutions Challenges and Opportunities for Sustainable Investment Standards," September 2015, https://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/21140703/RaceToTheTop-brief.pdf)// VM

=**NEGATIVE**=
 * Round 1 Neg: Elections DA**
 * Round 4 Neg: Xi Good**

Polls show Clinton will win the election now
When Donald Trump wrapped up the Republicans' presidential nomination, 2016 polling showed him gaining AND % unfavorable) and Hispanics (11% favorable/89% unfavorable).
 * Benen 6/15** (Steve, MSNBC. "Latest polls show Clinton getting stronger, Trump falling." http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/latest-polls-show-clinton-getting-stronger-trump-falling)

Engagement with China causes an electoral backlash – ensures the plan gets spun negatively
In recent times China has become one of the most contentious issues regarding American foreign AND create some roadblocks for the rethink of US military bases in the Pacific.
 * Golan 15** (Shahar, University of Washington, The Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies, "Building a Pragmatic Coalition in American Politics", https://digital.lib.washington.edu/researchworks/bitstream/handle/1773/33275/Task%20Force%20E%202015.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y)

The political scientist V.O. Key once wrote that "latent" public AND no such luxury. Future public opinion is the least of their worries.
 * ====GOP candidates will rhetorically weaponize the plan====**
 * Harris 16** (Peter, Prof of political science @ Colorado State U, "President Obama's Partisan Foreign Policy," Jan 26, nationalinterest.org/feature/president-obamas-partisan-foreign-policy-15019?page=2)

Trump triggers global nuclear conflict
Goodbye to all that. Now we know that Donald Trump would rip up the AND very bad deal indeed, a real rip-off for all humanity.
 * Cohen 16** (Roger, The New York Times, "Trump's New World Disorder," Factiva, 3/29/16 JMP)

Consult Japan 1nc
====Text: The United States federal government should enter into prior, binding consultation with the government of Japan on whether or not the United States federal government should plan. The United States federal government will advocate the proposal during consultation and abide by the outcome of consultation.====

Japan says yes—they have a fundamental interest in enhanced US engagement with China
Hughes 16 Professor of International Politics and Japanese Studies in PAIS, Research Associate at Centre for the Study of Globalization and Regionalization, degrees from Universities of Oxford, Rochester, and Sheffield (Christopher, Japan's Resentful Realism and Balancing China's Rise, Chinese Journal of International Politics, Summer 2016, P. 109-150, http://cjip.oxfordjournals.org/content/9/2/109.full#sec-2)//SJ Might Japan's international strategy shift radically, or indeed is it already beginning a radical AND would appear to be a highly entrenched grand strategy for Japanese policymakers.15

Prior, binding consultation's key to the alliance, the collapse of which risks shreds global nonproliferation norms, risks Japan rearm, and sparks nuclear escalation across Asia
[David – Senior Fellow at the CSIS' Pacific Forum. And John – Fellow at the CSIS' Pacific Forum. "Assuring Japan and South Korea in the Second Nuclear Age" The Washington Quarterly, Vol 38 N. 1. 2015. ln] Dubbed the second nuclear age, 2 the current context has been widely discussed for AND assuring them that the United States has an enduring interest in their partnerships.
 * Santoro & Warden '15**

That incentivizes broader Asian prolif and causes nuclear war
[Associate Professor At the University of New South Wales. Andrew T.H., Security and Conflict in East Asia, p. 31] East Asia's arms race leads the classic problem of the security dilemma, in which AND , namely China, North Korea and the USA, possess nuclear weapons.
 * Tan '15**

China is pursuing a revisionist foreign policy risking war
(John Daniel, http://thefederalist.com/2016/04/12/china-expansionist-foreign-policy/ 4-12) For months, Americans have been riveted by headlines about Islamic State terrorist attacks across AND else. We can't change their policy, but we can change ours."
 * Davidson, senior fellow at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, 16**

Engagement is over- Pivot represents shift to containment strategy
(John, R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor University of Chicago Co-director, Program on International Security Policy University of Chicago, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-navarro-and-greg-autry/mearsheimer-on-strangling_b_9417476.html 3-10) Now, in the 1990s, the Clinton administration did pursue engagement. There was AND in much more liberal terms. So it's liberal ideology disguising realist behavior.
 * Mearsheimer, PhD, 16**

Engagement is appeasement- encourages Chinese aggression, HR violations, wrecks hegemony and ruins alliances
(Grant, Senior Research Fellow @ Japan Forum for Strategic Studies, Exec. Director Corporate Security @ Morgan Stanley Japan, Retired Marine Colonel, http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/china-america-the-appeasement-question-11226, 9-8) In February 2014, Philippine President Benigno Aquino warned that failure to challenge the People's AND and resolutely standing up for one's principles is more likely to preserve peace.
 * Newsham, JD, 14**

Loss of super power competition with China causes global war
In Mr. Obama's second term the limits of such withdrawal from conventional military commitments AND must, and those with an option hurry up and get nuclear weapons.
 * Cohen, PhD Harvard, 13**
 * (Eliot, Robert E. Osgood Professor of Strategic Studies at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) and the Carey Business School, both at the Johns Hopkins University,** http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887324196204578300262454939952 **3-19)**

Xi's built PC from his anti-western and nationalist stance —- will use pc to push and implement reforms, but reforms can be de-railed
Sheehan 15 —- covers China for The WorldPost and Huffington Post (Matt Sheehan, 9-20-2015, "What You Need To Know About China's Strongman President" Huffington Post, 6-20-2016, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/chinese-president-xi-jinping_us_55fed862e4b08820d918ff14)//jonah This week President Barack Obama will host one of the other serious contenders for most AND , these are the questions and currents that will be driving the conversation.

Caving into western pressure allows political opponents to take advantage of Xi and undermine his agenda
Xi holds China's three top positions, and is set to lead China for a AND ideals, when his international actions and assertions are so assured and decisive?
 * BBC Worldwide Monitoring, 13** ("China, US to benefit Chinese leader's nationalism - Hong Kong paper," pg lexis//um-ef)

Xi's economic reforms are critical to both the US's and China's economic stability
Paulson, 15 – [Henry M. Paulson Jr., was U.S. treasury secretary from 2006 to 2009, and is chairman of the Paulson Institute, The Washington Post, "Why China's economic reforms are critical to the United States", 9/18/15, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-chinas-economic-reforms-are-critical-to-the-united-states/2015/09/18/b2227c9c-5bc5-11e5-b38e-06883aacba64_story.html, 6/24/16]JRO How serious are China's economic problems, and how big an impact will they have AND and energy and regulatory protection shield state-owned firms from market discipline.

Chinese economic collapse leads to multiple scenarios for war – miscalculation and lash out
Carpenter, 15 – [Ted Galen, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and a contributing editor at The National Interest, The National Interest, "Could China's Economic Troubles Spark a War?", 9/6/15, http://nationalinterest.org/feature/could-chinas-economic-troubles-spark-war-13784?page=2, 6/24/16]JRO Global attention has focused on the plunge in the Shanghai stock market and mounting evidence AND miscalculation and escalation, and that would be a tragedy for all concerned.