Ajay+and+Dustin

AFGHANISTAN 1AC
Advantages: Hegemony (with an econ leadership impact as well) and Insurgency (Pakistan collapse and terrorism). It is pretty much identical to the wave 2 1AC. Plan:T**he United States federal government should substantially reduce military presence assigned to the counterinsurgency mission in Afghanistan.**

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 * CONTENTION ONE: HEGEMONY**


 * The war collapses hegemony– 3 internals:**


 * First is credibility –****Obama announced a July 2011 withdrawal date, but it is based on the conditional success of the counterinsurgency mission. This deadline is __perceived__ as unconditional withdrawal and has created global confusion**

When General David Petraeus testifies …. exactly what they've been doing .**"**
 * Rogin, 10 -** staff writer for Foreign Policy, Prior to that, Josh covered defense and foreign policy for Congressional Quarterly. Josh has also worked at the House International Relations Committee, and the Brookings Institution (Josh, “Petraeus: Withdrawal timeline does not mean "switching off the lights",” The Cable, 6/29**,[])**

**The announcement destroyed the perception of US commitment to Afghanistan - they see us as cutting and running** It is true, as Schlesinger … Pakistan, Iran, and even Russia.
 * Rubin, 10** //– resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute; senior lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School's Center for Civil-Military Relations; and a senior editor of the// Middle East Quarterly//. (Michael, Public Square, 3/8, “The Afghanistan Withdrawal: Why Obama Was Wrong to Insist on a Deadline,” http://www.michaelrubin.org/7033/afghanistan-withdrawal-deadline)//

Over the winter break I … a rising power (China, a reinvigorated Russia ).
 * Second is overstretch – COIN exhausts our forces and kills leadership – switching to counterterrorism prevents great power challengers**
 * Kretkowski, 10** – Frequently assists think tank in conferences and other work products that aid DoD's long-term thinking about threats that may not be addressable via weapons platforms. Spent six months in Afghanistan working with Army public affairs. (Paul, “Against COIN, for CT in Afghanistan and Elsewhere”, 1/7, Beacon (a blog), http://softpowerbeacon.blogspot.com/2010/01/against-coin-for-ct-in-afghanistan-and.html)

**Kuhner, 9** // **-** the president of the Edmund Burke Institute for American Renewal (Jeffrey, Washington Times, “Obama’s quagmire; US should look to its own interests,” 9/7, Lexis Academic) // __America is losing the war …__ evil, welcoming __arms of extremists.__
 * Afghanistan is a quagmire of attrition warfare that is destroying US morale and readiness.**

Since we invaded Iraq six … US-ally Georgia this past year.
 * This will obliterate American primacy**
 * Pyne, 9** **-** Vice Chair of the Utah State Legislative Compensation Commission and Vice President of the Association of the United States Army's Utah chapter and a Vice President of the Salt Lake Total Force Chapter of the Military Officers Association of America (David, “ Obama failing our troops in Afghanistan,” 11/7, http://westernfrontamerica.com/2009/11/07/obama-failing-troops-afghanistan/)

A grand strategy based on … the economic prosperity it provides.
 * All your impact are belong to us – American primacy vital to accessing every major impact – the only threat is if we allow it to collapse**
 * Thayer, 6 -** professor of security studies at Missouri State (Bradley, The National Interest, “In Defense of Primacy”, November/December, p. 32-37)

http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2009/10/toward-a-kilcullenbiden-plan/ Just do the math - __with 63,000 …__ by Vice-President Joe Biden.
 * Third is the dollar –** **Maintaining COIN kills the dollar and our financial influence**
 * Corn, 9** – Ph.D. from the University of Paris and is a graduate of the U.S. Naval War College, currently on leave from the US State Department (Tony, “Toward a Kilcullen-Biden Plan? Bounding Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan,” Small Wars Journal, 10/21,

Although the spread of nuclear … __a fleet of cars without gasoline.__
 * Economic leadership key to checking economic collapse**
 * Mandelbaum** **2005** – Professor and Director of the American Foreign Policy Program at Johns Hopkins – 2005 [Michael, The Case for Goliath: How America Acts As the World’s Government in the Twenty-First Century, p. 192-195]

At best, an American withdrawal … __large numbers, of nuclear weapons__.
 * That goes nuclear without economic leadership**
 * Mandelbaum 2005** – Professor and Director of the American Foreign Policy Program at Johns Hopkins – 2005 [Michael, The Case for Goliath: How America Acts As the World’s Government in the Twenty-First Century, p. 224]

__The best Afghan policy would …__ -term, less will be more.
 * Counterterrorism solves – presence becomes sustainable and solidifies our strategy – reduces financial stress**
 * Stewart, 9-** Ryan Family Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (9/16/09, Rory, “The Future of Afghanistan,” http://www.hks.harvard.edu/news-events/news/testimonies/rory-stewart-on-afghanistan)

But this moderate tone gains … a much greater focus on Kashmir.
 * Obama will sell the plan as a drawdown to a lighter but permanent commitment to Afghanistan – solves confusion and restores our credibility**
 * Stewart, 10** - Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at Harvard, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (Rory, “ Afghanistan: What Could Work”, New York Review of Books, 1/14, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2010/jan/14/afghanistan-what-could-work/?page=3)


 * Abandoning COIN allows us to shift our overall strategy to selective engagement – spills over and makes global presence sustainable**

An effort to conduct "counterinsurgency" … capable of applying overwhelming force.
 * Gventer, 9** - Senior Defense Analyst at the RAND Corporation and a former deputy assistant secretary of defense. She served two tours in Iraq, including a year as a senior adviser to General Peter Chiarelli, the operational commander in Iraq in 2006 (Celeste, “False Promise of 'Counterinsurgency'”, 12/1, http://www.rand.org/commentary/2009/12/01/NYT.html)

Pulling the bulk of U.S. … sway those in the middle.
 * Switching to counterterrorism frees up resources to pay down debt**
 * Kretkowski, 10** – Frequently assists think tank in conferences and other work products that aid DoD's long-term thinking about threats that may not be addressable via weapons platforms. Spent six months in Afghanistan working with Army public affairs. (Paul, “Against COIN, for CT in Afghanistan and Elsewhere”, 1/7, Beacon (a blog), http://softpowerbeacon.blogspot.com/2010/01/against-coin-for-ct-in-afghanistan-and.html)


 * CONTENTION TWO: THE WAR**

The counterinsurgency strategy and surge … country and its political structures.
 * COIN failure inevitable – terrain and impossible troop requirements mean the Taliban can hide forever**
 * Stewart, 10** - Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at Harvard, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (Rory, “ Afghanistan: What Could Work”, New York Review of Books, 1/14)

**Galston 10** - Senior Fellow of Governance Studies @ Brookings (William, Senior Fellow of Governance Studies @ Brookings, “A Question of Life and Death: U.S. Policy in Afghanistan,” Brookings, June 15th, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2010/0615_afghanistan_galston.aspx) __Are the basic premises of … and political force in Afghanistan.__
 * A large military footprint combined with the perception of an illegitimate government make crushing the Taliban impossible – it can recruit faster than we can kill**

**Pashtun nationalism means foreign presence breeds resentment and instability – kills the ability to train troops** **Dorronsoro, 09** - visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (9/23/09, Gilles, The National Interest, “Afghanization,” http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=22218) In addition, __there is no__ … of the discredited Karzai regime //. //

**Nationalism means that even if the US won every battle it couldn’t beat the insurgency** **Dorronsoro, 09** - visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (2/9/09, Gilles, The National Interest, “Going South in Afghanistan,” http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=20794) Afghanistan may be the right … __any foreign forces ever could.__

WASHINGTON — President Obama is asking … used in a terrorist attack" by 2013.
 * Ris****k of nuclear terrorism is high – al Qaeda attacks by 2013**
 * Hall, 10** (Mimi, USA Today, “Obama seeks front against nuclear terror”, 4/12, http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2010-04-11-nukesummit_N.htm

__I spent five years as a__ … __physical space it can access__ __.__
 * Afghanistan is a vital safe haven for al Qaeda – terrorism is inevitable but nuclear risks can be reduced if the US drives them out**
 * Arkedis, 9** - director of the National Security Project at the Progressive Policy Institute. He was a counterterrorism analyst with the Naval Criminal Investigative Service from 2002 to 2007 (Jim, “Why Al Qaeda Wants a Safe Haven”, 10/23, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/10/23/got_safe_haven)

In a remarkable website on nuclear … and suffering in a nuclear winter.
 * Nuclear terrorism causes extinction**
 * Morgan, 9** - Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin Campus - South Korea (Dennis, Futures, November, “World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race,” Science Direct)

**Gradual withdrawal while maintaining a counterterrorism strategy allows more effective US leadership in the war on terror and maximizes US credibility** **Chellany, 09** - professor of strategic studies at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi (9/14/09, Brahma, Japan Times, “An Advantagous U.S. Exit,” http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20090914bc.html) When the administration's principal war … __deep-rooted military-mullah alliance.'__

It will therefore take about … alternative for the U nited S tates.
 * A counterterrorism posture empirically works – it reduces the threat of terrorism and can provide actionable intelligence without undermining US credibility**
 * Long, 10 -** assistant professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs (Austin, “Small is Beautiful: The Counterterrorism Option in Afghanistan,” Orbis, Spring 2010, Science Direct)

This three-zone strategy is … __independence of Afghanistan’s peripheral regions.__
 * Withdrawal of combat troops will immediately turn the population against the Taliban and shore up Afghan government legitimacy**
 * Dorronsoro,9** -**Visiting Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (January 2009, Gilles, “Focus and Exit: An Alternative Strategy for the Afghan War,” http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/afghan_war-strategy.pdf)