Priyanka+and%20Steven

=FIRST VERSION= =Inherency=


 * Observation One Inherency - Obama is committed to maintaining the Status Quo on our policy toward Japanese bases**


 * Bandow, 2009, senior fellow at the Cato Institute** [Doug, November 29, “Policy Change for East Asia,” available at http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11015, accessed on 7/14/2010]

U.S. President Barack __Obama made his first official trip to Asia in November__. The results were thin. Unfortunately, __his agenda focused on reinforcing the status quo and "strengthening" the usual ties with the usual allies__. Worse, __the administration is dedicated to maintaining and even expanding Washington's Cold War-era security ties.__ The U.S. achieved its dominant position in East Asia after defeating Japan in World War II. Washington created a network of alliances to both prevent any imperial Japanese renaissance and contain Soviet and, later, Chinese expansion. But that world has largely disappeared. Japan has recovered and created the world's No. 2 economy. The Soviet Union is gone. Maoist China lives on only in propaganda images. President Obama needs to promote a changed attitude as much as offer new policies. Vietnam has joined the global economy. South Korea has raced past the decrepit Democratic People's Republic of Korea. Other countries, ranging from Australia to India, are expanding their regional roles. The potential for conflict remains. However, without any link to a global hegemonic competitor like the Soviet Union, such instability would pose little threat to the U.S. Yet __Washington's Cold War alliance structure remains essentially unchanged. The U.S. maintains one-sided "mutual" defense treaties with Japan and South Korea.__ __That the U.S. must remain militarily dominant is taken for granted__. In Washington, the People's Republic of China's apparent determination to create a military capable of deterring U.S. intervention along its border is treated as a threat to American security. What has ever been must ever be appears to be the basis of U.S. foreign policy.

GlobalSecurity.org, Updated //(, Military, , ) __The United States and Japan agreed in 2006 to move __ Marine Corps Air Station Futenma to another part of the island __in five years__. __But the new Japanese administration wants that plan put on hold. In 2006, Japan and the United States agreed to close Futenma and move its facilities to another Marine base with a heliport built on reclaimed land offshore__. __That agreement also called for 8,000 marines to be moved off Okinawa, to the US territory of Guam__. The plan came after 15 years of negotiations but __Japan's new government now wants to reconsider it__. Prime Minister Yukio __Hatoyama and his Democratic Party of Japan won a historic election in August, in part by calling for a review of that 2006 agreement. Four DPJ members from Okinawa won parliamentary seats with promises of reducing the US troop presence on the island. __ The Department of Defense believes that Marine Corps forces along with other US forces on Okinawa satisfy the US national security strategy by visably demonstrating the US commitment to security in the region. These forces are thought to deter aggression, provide a crisis response capability should deterrence fail, and avoid the risk that US allies may interpret the withdrawal of forces as a lessening of US commitment to peace and stability in the region. __By 2003 the US was considering moving most of the 20,000 Marines on Okinawa to new bases__ that would be established in Australia; increasing the presence of US troops in Singapore and Malaysia; and seeking agreements to base Navy ships in Vietnamese waters and ground troops in the Philippines. __For the Marines based on Okinawa__, most for months without their families, __the US is considering a major shift. Under plans on the table, all but about 5,000 of the Marines would move, possibly to Australia__. __During 2004 Japan and the United States continued discussions on plans to scale back the US military presence in the country. Tokyo will ask Washington to move some Marines now on the southern island of Okinawa outside the country. There is no doubt some changes will be made to the Okinawa forces__. __The US Marines are a tremendous burden in Okinawa, particularly the infantry and the training needs of the infantry in Okinawa can't really be met on the island, given the sensitivities there. Okinawa accounts for less than one percent of Japan's land, but hosts about two-thirds of the 40,000 American forces in the country. In recent years, Okinawans have grown increasingly angry about the military presence, because of land disputes and highly publicized violent crimes committed by a few U.S. troops. __ In return for moving troops outside the country, Japan would provide pre-positioning facilities for weapons, fuel and other equipment for the US military.
 * Okinawans hate the military presence on the island: they want the bases removed**
 * Global Security.ORG 9** – Staff writer (16 11, “Okinawa, Japan”, http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/facility/okinawa.htm)


 * Thus the plan – The United States federal government should remove all military personnel in Okinawa from Japan.**

=Japan US alliance=

Inherency
(Doug, Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute, “Japan Can Defend Itself,” Cato Institute, pg online @ **[]** //ag) __Making fewer promises to intervene would allow the United States to reduce the number of military personnel and overseas bases. A good place to start in cutting international installations would be Okinawa__. America's post-Cold War dominance is coming to an end. Michael Schuman argued in Time: "__Anyone who thinks the balance of power in Asia is not changing — and with it, the strength of the U.__S., even among its old allies — __hasn't been there lately."__ Many analysts nevertheless want the United States to attempt to maintain its unnatural dominance. Rather than accommodate a more powerful China, they want America to contain a wealthier and more influential Beijing. Rather than expect its allies to defend themselves and promote regional stability, they want Washington to keep its friends dependent. To coin a phrase, **__it's time for a change. U.S. intransigence over Okinawa has badly roiled the bilateral relationship. But even a more flexible basing policy would not be enough__**. __Washington is risking the lives and wasting the money of the American people to defend other populous and prosperous states. Washington should close Futenma — as a start to refashioning the alliance with Japan. Rather than a unilateral promise by the United States to defend Japan, the relationship should become one of equals working together on issues of mutual interest. Responsibility for protecting Japan should become that of Japan. Both Okinawans and Americans deserve justice. It's time for Washington to deliver. __ our Scenarios- stability, joint missile defense, economic warfare, and prolif
 * US presence in Okinawa is damaging US Japan relations**
 * Bandow, 5/12/10**

Joint Missile Defense

 * First is Missile Defense**
 * US Japan cooperation is necessary for Joint Missile defense – it is key for ongoing tests**


 * Payne, 10, Member of the Defense Science Board, the DoD Threat Reduction Advisory Committee,** [Keith Co-chairman of the Nuclear Strategy Forum, Thomas Scheber, Principal Associate Director for Nuclear Weapons Program; March “U.S. Extended Deterrence and Assurance for Allies in Northeast Asia”; []; Accessed 7/16/10]

In recent years, __joint cooperation on ballistic missile defense has been growing in importance and activity. Japan-U.S. Security Consultative Committee (2+2) meetings typically included discussion of cooperative measures for BMD__. In November 2007, __the defense ministers from both countries met and agreed to advance joint efforts to cooperate on operational aspects.__ 154 In December 2007, a joint BMD test used a SM-3 interceptor fired from a Japanese destroyer, Kongo. __This successful joint live-fire test marked a major milestone in missile defense cooperation with the United States__. In November 2008, a subsequent BMD test involving an interceptor fired by a ship in the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force was partially successful. On October 28, 2009, a Japanese destroyer, JS Myoko, fired an SM-3 interceptor missile which successfully impacted a medium-range ballistic missile about 100 miles above the Pacific Ocean.155 __The United States and Japan are continuing to work together to increase the range and lethality of the SM-3 Block IIA interceptor.156 Japan hosts an X-band radar which is an integral part of the U.S. Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS). Japanese and U.S. forces cooperate in missile defense exercises and are continuing to improve interoperability between elements of each other’s defensive systems. The most recent Japan Defense White Paper calls for continued cooperation with the United States to further strengthen security arrangements on “defense operations.” Specifically, it calls for joint exercises and training to be enhanced, continued stationing of U.S. forces in Japan (but a “realignment of those forces”), cooperation on ballistic missile defense, and close collaboration with the United States in international security efforts. Consistent with this goal, the United States and Japan recently expanded the size and complexity of the annual exercise, Yama Sakura__ (Mountain Cherry Blossom). The exercise, conducted in December 2009 on the northern island of Hokkaido, included over 5,000 troops and involved ballistic missile defense training.157


 * Joint missile defense is key – North Korean missile threat destabilizes Asia causing war**


 * Klingner 2009-Senior Research Fellow for Northeast Asia in the Asian Studies** Center at The Heritage Foundation [Bruce, “North Korea's Missile Gambit” February 17, 2009 WebMemo #2295, accessed July 17, http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2009/02/North-Koreas-Missile-Gambit]

What the U.S. Should Do Emphasize that North Korea's actions are provocative, counterproductive, and call into question Pyongyang's viability as a negotiating partner. Highlight that __North Korea____'s threatening belligerence, not U.S. "hostile policy" as Pyongyang claims, has hindered negotiations. Affirm U.S. commitment to defend our allies against any North Korean provocation, including missile launches or naval confrontation in the West Sea__. Underscore Secretary of Defense Robert Gates' pledge to shoot down the North Korean missile if it approaches U.S. territory. Emphasize that __North Korea____'s missile threat demonstrates the continuing need for the U.S., Japan, and South Korea to develop and deploy missile defense systems. It is ironic that President Obama's Secretary of Defense has suggested using missile defenses that Obama would likely not have funded had he been in office during their development. Declare that the U.S. is willing to resume negotiations to eliminate North Korea's missile threats to its neighbors. Such negotiations, however, must comprehensively constrain missile development, deployment, and proliferation rather than simply seeking a quid pro quo agreement-__-cash payments in exchange for not exporting missile technology. Nor should such negotiations deflect attention from Pyongyang's denuclearization requirements in the Six Party Talks.

Economic Warfare

 * Second– Economic warfare - US Japan relations key to the US economy – Japan owns a significant portion of US debt in Treasury bills and could dispose of those assets**


 * Curits 10** – **Professor of political science at Columbia University** (Gerald, “Getting the Triangle Straight: China, Japan, and the United States in An Era of Change,” form the publication Getting the Triangle Straight: Managing China-Japan-US Relations, p. 9, accessed 7/18/10, pub. JCIE, ed. Gerald Curtis, Ryosei Kokubun, and Wang Jisi, http://www.jcie.org/researchpdfs/Triangle/1_curtis.pdf) Red

__Many of the exports from other Asian countries to China, it needs to be pointed out, consist of components for products that are assembled in China for export to the United States__ and to other countries. __The US market will remain critically important for all Asian economies,__ but its relative importance will continue to decline, especially as the Asian middle class grows larger and consumes a larger share of the products produced by Asia’s cross-border production networks. T__he United States, for its part, will have to adopt policies that reassure foreign holders of American treasury bonds—particularly China and Japan, which are the largest holders of those bonds—that the value of their holdings is secure. Leverage, of course, is not all on one side. China’s huge holdings of US Treasury bills creates something of an economic equivalent to the theory of mutually assured destruction__ that is applied to the balance of nuclear terror: __China could impose devastating damage on the US economy by disposing of these assets, but not without creating substantial distress to its own economy. Japan is in a similar situation, though its heavy dependence on the United States for its security makes it more unlikely than in China’s case that it would take actions that the United States would perceive as hostile.__ Nonetheless, __the reality that the United States depends on foreign financing of its government deficit changes the dynamic between the United States and the countries whose willingness to buy that debt is crucial to America’s economic wellbeing.__

Multilateralism

 * Third – East Asian Multilateralism - The US Japan Alliance is crucial for Japan to expand its Multilateral leadership in East Asia – our cooperation on security issues will expand Japan’s international role**


 * Chanlett-Avery, 09 Specialist in Asian Affairs Congressional Research** Service [Emma Chanlett-Avery, William H. Cooper, Specialist in International Trade and Finance Congressional Research Service; 11/25/09; “Japan-U.S. Relations: Issues for Congress”; [|http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-in/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA511942& Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf]; accessed: 7/14/10]

__As the DPJ settles into its new role as the main ruling party, it may over time show greater confidence in following through on its long-promised vision of a more assertive foreign policy for Japan__. Among some of the measures called for by the DPJ are expanding Japan’s role in U.N.sanctioned peacekeeping operations, deepening ties with Asia, taking greater responsibility for defending the Japanese homeland, expanding regional and bilateral free trade agreements (FTA), and promoting an ambitious new set of global climate change standards. __Although the move toward a U.N. and Asia-centered diplomacy may be perceived as a less U.S.-centric approach, such a trend may not necessarily signify a divergence from broader U.S. goals and interests. The DPJ’s vision of a “proactive” foreign policy that would enhance Japan’s international contributions is one that is likely to be broadly supported by Washington__. Indeed, there are several areas where the new government in Tokyo may cooperate closely with Obama Administration initiatives, from setting new global warming standards to nuclear nonproliferation efforts. Several upcoming high-level events, including a planned bilateral summit in Tokyo in November 2009, will provide opportunities for President Obama to discuss issues of mutual interest with newly elected Prime Minister Hatoyama.


 * Engagement in multilateralism prevents East Asian nationalistic conflict – better public opinion, and understanding.**


 * Tanaka, 08** – **Senior Fellow at the Japan Centre for International Exchange** (Hitoshi, “The Strategic Rationale for East Asia Community Building,” from the publication East Asia at a Crossroads, pp. 99-100, ed. Jusuf Wanandi and Tadashi Yamamoto, published by JCIE, accessed 7/15/10, http://www.jcie.org/researchpdfs/crossroads/chp6_tanaka.pdf) Red

__Whenever one looks for the origins of nationalistic sentiment in Northeast Asia,__ be it anti-Japanese sentiment in China, anti-Japanese/ Chinese sentiment in South Korea, or anti-Chinese/North Korean sentiment in Japan, the __answer often lies at least partially in domestic politics.7 Leaders in any number of political systems sometimes see the pursuit of a populist or nationalistic foreign policy as a means of garnering popular support. Although such tactics may succeed in reaping short-term gains for the party in power, they can have dangerous consequences in the long run. In contrast, the leaders of a nation that is a member of a community that has adopted a norm of seeking multilateral solutions to intraregional issues depend on their neighbors for help in addressing problems outside national borders.__ __Since regional stability is central to the national interest, the state’s leaders will show an increased sensitivity to views and expectations of community partners rather than depending solely on the popular support of domestic constituencies. As domestic constituencies come to see the benefits of a more constructive and cooperative foreign policy, popular opinion will become increasingly supportive. The end result would be a more rational (or, at the very least, less provocative) foreign policy and mutually beneficial (as opposed to zero-sum) calculations of national interest.__ In short, __as states become socialized to these norms of interaction, multilateralism may become a means to transcend national egoism and ambition and minimize the deleterious effects of traditional power politics.__ __This process would reduce confrontational nationalistic sentiment and could potentially, one day in the distant future, render concerns about the emergence of a militarist or expansionist power in the region obsolete.__ Any process that is able to remove or at least partially attenuate these concerns, which arguably pose the single largest obstacle to community-building efforts, would make an invaluable contribution to long-term peace and stability in East Asia.


 * Indo-Pak nuclear war will escalate globally and destroy the planet**
 * Caldicott 02,** Founder of Physicians for Social Responsibility [Helen, The New Nuclear Danger: George W. Bush’s Military-Industrial Complex, p. X]
 * __The use of Pakistani nuclear weapons could trigger a chain reaction.__** __Nuclear-armed India, an ancient enemy, could respond in kind. China, India's hated foe, could react if India used her nuclear weapons, **triggering a nuclear holocaust**__ on the subcontinent. __If any of either Russia or America's__ 2,__250 strategic weapons on hair-trigger alert were launched__ either accidentally or purposefully in response, __nuclear winter would ensue, meaning the end of most life on earth .__

Starting with a proposal to integrate it with the U.S. Kadena Air Base, Japan and the United States have discussed, both formally and informally, various options on where to relocate the U.S. Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station in Ginowan, Okinawa Prefecture. __The biggest issue has been how to simultaneously achieve the goals of reducing Okinawa Prefecture's burden of hosting bases while maintain ing the national deterrence against foreign threats. T__o move the Futenma facility out of the prefecture, two problems must be addressed: Managing the burden on the local government that accepts relocation and determining who has the right to manage air traffic control at and around the relocated base. First, if the Futenma facility is moved out of the prefecture, the marine corps' helicopter unit based at the facility also should be moved. If the helicopter unit is the only unit that is moved out of the prefecture, the rest of the marines in the prefecture would be cut off from their means of transportation and their day-to-day training would be disrupted. Additionally, it would take longer to mobilize them in an emergency as they would have to wait for helicopters that would have to come from far away. This means a local government that would accept the Futenma facility also would have to accept the 1,000-strong infantry combat force at Camp Schwab in Nago, Okinawa Prefecture, and facilities for its day-to-day training operations, such as landing drills and urban-area combat drills. The burden is too big for a local government to bear. Former Nago mayor Yoshikazu Shimabukuro, who lost the recent local election, told me: "There will be no local government that would accept it. I want you to understand that it's a miracle that Nago would accept it." Second, there is a problem of air traffic control for the facility. The U.S. military in Japan holds air traffic control rights for six air bases, including Yokota in Tokyo, Misawa in Aomori Prefecture and Futenma and Kadena in Okinawa Prefecture. A Defense Ministry official says, "[The rights are] to make sure planes will fly freely in emergencies, and they'll never let them go." Currently, air traffic controllers of the Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Ministry control air traffic at most regional airports and surrounding areas. But realistically speaking, it is not easy for the government's air traffic control officials to control U.S. military planes that make repeated takeoffs and landings in training. If the government lets the marines control the air traffic at and around a relocated base, depending on the frequency of training, operation of commercial planes still may be affected. The previous government led by the Liberal Democratic Party could not solve the two problems, and it decided to relocate the Futenma facility within Okinawa Prefecture. Among several possible locations, Japan and the United States picked a feasible one--the coastal area of the Henoko district of Nago. That is why the United States insists the current plan is the best option. But the current government led by Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama has been a reed shaken by the wind. His Democratic Party of Japan promised in the campaign for the last House of Representatives election it would move the Futenma facility out of the prefecture, possibly out of the country, if it won the election. But as soon as it saw this was unlikely to happen, the DPJ checked out Iejima island in the prefecture, an option that had been dismissed in the bilateral discussions. It also has shown interest in seeking a new candidate site on the east coast of Okinawa Island. The surprised Okinawa Gov. Hirokazu Nakaima said, "I'd thought [people in the government] were seeking somewhere out of the prefecture and out of the country, but they're visiting various places in the prefecture." It is a grim reality that the nightmarish worst scenario is that the Futenma functions will not be relocated and will remain where they are. As of out-of-Okinawa options, the government has approached Saga and Shizuoka airports as well as the Maritime Self-Defense Force's Omura Air Base in Nagasaki Prefecture. Before referring to a new option whenever it pops up in mind, the __Hatoyama administration should examine the process of past Japan-U.S. talks and work on the two problems that the previous government could not solve. At the same time, it should seek to restore the Japan-U.S. relationship, which has hit a sour note, and ask the United States to sit down and discuss the Futenma issue once again. It will not produce a good result if Japan picks a relocation site on its own and simply informs the United States of its decision. **Relocating Futenma accomplishes the goal of reducing the burden on a local government of hosting bases and is supposed to be on par with maintaining deterrence from foreign threats.** **The biggest deterrent that Japan can present is to show its ties with the United States are close and firm.** **Without such ties, it is impossible to deter threats from North Korea and China**. Few ways are left to remove the burden imposed by the Futenma base as soon as possible while filling the gap between Japan and the United States.__
 * Plan is a prerequisite to the relations needed to deter North Korea and China and create peace in the region**
 * Katsumata and Shimbun 2/5** Senior writers for Daily Yomiuri ( Hidemichi and Yomiuri, 2/5/10, “ Deterrence part of Futenma issue”, [])


 * Expanding the US – Japan relations to include other regional players is key to address multilateral threats –prolif, and disease**


 * Tanaka 09 –** **Senior Fellow at the Japan Center for International Exchange** [Hitoshi, “A New Vision for the US-Japan Alliance,” vol. 4 no. 1, pub JCIE, April 2009, accessed 7/14/10, http://www.jcie.or.jp/insights/4-1.html] Red

A New Approach to East Asia __Threats to regional stability increasingly come from nontraditional areas such as WMD proliferation, human and drug trafficking, natural disasters, energy security, environmental degradation, maritime piracy, and infectious disease. All of these challenges will require multilateral and cooperative solutions. The scope of the US-Japan alliance must expand beyond bilateral military deterrence. It must become more inclusive and place greater emphasis on functioning more as a public good.__ Although __Japan__ __and the United States should lead this initiative, efforts will not make much progress without the support of other advanced democracies in the region__ such as South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. The two allies should move to strengthen and expand existing trilateral strategic consultations (e.g. US-Japan-South Korea and US-Japan-Australia). __It should be stressed__, however, that the objective is neither to unilaterally impose western values upon East Asian nations nor to exclude non-democratic nations from reaping the benefits of regional stability and economic prosperity. Rather, __the objective is for Japan and the United States to engage states in the region in rules-based communities through inclusive multilateralism. As states adopt standardized rules and norms of behavior, the transaction costs of interaction will decrease, which will in turn deepen trust, interdependence, and stability throughout East Asia.__ At the same time that __Japan and the United States actively engage China in regional and global rules-based communities and bring it into multilateral dialogue on issues ranging from macroeconomic policy to talks on energy and the environment, they must also work with other US allies to hedge against the uncertainty surrounding China's future. Concerns abound about several aspects of China's foreign policy—including issues related to rapidly rising defense expenditures, military transparency, and its aggressive approach to energy security—and domestic policy—such as CO2 emissions and environmental damage, treatment of minorities, and income disparities. Japan and the United States should place priority on encouraging China to pursue economic policies that will make a constructive contribution to efforts to address the global economic crisis, make its military affairs more transparent, and agree to fully participate in the successor to the Kyoto Protocol. With respect to security issues, Japan and the United States should initiate and institutionalize regular trilateral security dialogue with China__ involving civilian and military personnel. __This would provide a forum through which to advocate increased transparency, reduce mutual suspicions, and consolidate trust between the region's three great powers__. __Stable security ties among these three nations are a prerequisite for long-term peace and stability in the region__. In recent years, the Six-Party Talks format has emerged as an effective sub-regional security forum for addressing the North Korean nuclear issue, but we still have, unfortunately, a lengthy and bumpy ride ahead of us before the nuclear issue is resolved. This forum, which has succeeded in bringing together the five most powerful states in the region to openly discuss and cooperate in resolving a security issue of common concern, should remain active even after the nuclear issue is settled and be used to address remaining issues on the Korean Peninsula. __Emerging nontraditional security issues pose an increasingly serious threat to regional stability. Building on the existing network of US security partners in the region, Japan and the United States should work with states in the region to establish an East Asia Security Forum to proactively address such security issues as human and drug trafficking, natural disasters, infectious disease, resource scarcity, maritime piracy, terrorism, and WMD proliferation.__ With ASEAN+6 member nations and the United States working in concert, this forum would adopt an action-oriented and functional approach to addressing these threats and carry out operations in a manner similar to the PSI.


 * Disease Pandemic leads to extinction**


 * Toolis, the director of a major television series on the history of plagues, 09** (Kevin, The Express, April 28, 2009 U.K. 1st Edition “Pandemic Pandemonium” lexis)

__It__ __destroyed the Roman Empire, wiped out most of the New World and killed millions in Europe.__ How __disease - not just Mexico's swine fever - has shaped the planet SCIENTISTS call it the Big Die Off, when a terrifying new virus rips through a species and kills up to a third of the entire population__. And __we all now could be facing a new apocalypse__, though no one yet knows how potent the new strain of Mexican swine fever will be, or how many millions could die. Yet __if history teaches us anything it tells us that the greatest danger the human race faces is not some crackpot North Korean dictator but a six-gene virus that could wipe out one third of the global population. Our real enemy, a new plague virus, is so small you can barely see it even with an advanced electron microscope____. It has no morality, no thought or no plan. All it wants to do is reproduce itself inside another human body. We are just another biological opportunity, a__ nice __warm place to feed and rep__licate. Viruses are as old as life itself. What is startling though is how vulnerable our globalised societies are to the threat of a new deadly plague. __Before W__orld __H__ealth __O__rganisation s__cientists could identify this new H1N1 virus it had travelled halfway across the world via international flights__.


 * Proliferation leads to extinction**


 * Utgoff, Deputy Director of Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division 02** of Institute for Defense Analysis (Victor A., Summer 2002, Survival, p.87-90 Victor A Utgoff, Deputy Director of Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division of Institute for Defense Analysis, Summer 2002, Survival, p.87-90)

In sum, widespread __proliferation is likely to lead to an occasional shoot-out with nuclear__ __weapons__, and that __such shoot outs will have a substantial probability of escalating to the maximum destruction possible__ with the weapons at hand. __Unless__ nuclear __proliferation is stopped, we are headed towards a world that will mirror the American__ Wild __West__ of the late 1800s. __With most, if not all, nations wearing nuclear “six shooters__” on their hips, the world may even be a more polite place than it is today, but every once in a while __we will all gather together on a hill to bury the bodies of dead cities or even whole nations.__

Offshore balancing

 * Internal link:**
 * Reinforcing deterrence just makes __miscalculation__ more likely**
 * Armstrong, 10 –** Professor of history and director of the Center for Korean Research at Columbia University (Charles, 5/26/10, CNN, “The Korean War never ended” [])

New York (CNN) -- The Korean War began 60 years ago on June 25, 1950, and it still hasn't ended. Fighting on the Korean Peninsula may have stopped with a cease-fire in July 1953, but North and South Korea have remained in a tense state of armed truce ever since, with open warfare just a hair-trigger away. The sinking of the South Korean navy vessel Cheonan on March 26 -- which an international investigation team concluded last week to be the result of a North Korean torpedo attack -- shows how volatile the situation remains between North and South. __There is a real danger of the current war of words escalating into a shooting war, which would be a catastrophe for Korea and the surrounding region. But if all sides, including the United States, pull back from the brink, this tragedy may also present an opportunity to defuse tensions with North Korea and resume talks that have been on hold for the last two years.__ The Cheonan disaster caused an outcry of grief and anger in South Korea. On May 24, South Korea's President Lee Myung-bak gave a forceful speech to his countrymen, asserting that South Korea would not tolerate any provocation from the North and would pursue "proactive deterrence." South Koreans, Lee vowed, "will immediately exercise our right of self-defense" if their territorial waters, airspace or territory are violated." Lee called the sinking of the Cheonan, in which 46 sailors died, a violation of the United Nations Charter and of the Korean War Armistice and said he would turn to the U.N. Security Council for international support in condemning North Korea. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has demanded North Korea face "consequences" for this attack. But North Korea denies involvement in the incident, claiming the whole investigation is a fabrication designed to undermine North-South Korean relations and ignite a war against the North. The North Koreans have said any retaliation against them for the incident would be met with a forceful and immediate response, up to and including all-out war. China has so far been neutral about the investigation's findings, calling the incident a "tragedy" but refusing to blame North Korea and calling for calm on all sides. Without China's support, no call for action against North Korea will make it through the U.N. Security Council. (China is one of the five nations that hold veto power on the Council.) China supported two rounds of U.N. sanctions against Pyongyang, after North Korea's nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009, but is unlikely to support sanctions this time. North Korea denies responsibility for the incident and China regards the evidence as inconclusive. Besides, __it's hard to see what further economic or diplomatic pressure can be put on North Korea, which already faces tough previous sanctions.__ Contrary to common belief, North Korea is not facing internal political disarray or economic decline. Kim Jong Il appears to be fully in charge, and harvests for the last two years have been relatively good. Chinese sources estimate a substantial increase in North Korean industrial production over the last year. Whatever may have motivated the attack on the Cheonan, it was not the act of a desperate or divided regime, and the strong sanctions called for by President Lee -- even if China would agree to support and enforce them -- are not likely to get North Korea to admit responsibility for the attack or to change its behavior. On the other hand, __there is a real danger of this war of words escalating into a shooting war.__ With well over a million Korean troops facing each other across the Demilitarized Zone separating North and South, along with 29,000 U.S. troops in the South, and North Korea now armed with nuclear weapons, the consequences of a renewed Korean War would be catastrophic for the Korean peninsula and the entire Northeast Asia region. __The Cheonan incident has reinforced U.S.-South Korean and U.S.-Japanese cooperation in deterring the North. But **deterrence can look like provocation from the other side, and in such a tense and volatile environment, a slight miscalculation can lead to disaster****.** Anger and outrage may be understandable, but cooler heads must prevail. Millions of lives are at stake. Rather than lead to deepening confrontation, this tragedy may be an opportunity to re-engage North Korea in talks__ to scale back and ultimately eliminate its nuclear program, and to promote security and economic cooperation with its neighbors. North Korea has never admitted to acts of terrorism in the past, and we cannot expect it to acknowledge responsibility and apologize for the sinking of the Cheonan as a precondition for such talks. Instead, the international community should take advantage of Kim Jong Il's stated willingness to return to multilateral negotiations, suspended since 2008, as a way of reducing tensions on the Korean peninsula. It is time to end the Korean War, not start it anew.


 * [ ] Off shore balancing solves better than Okinawan bases – it avoids nuclear entanglement in Deterrence failures – this outweighs the risk of prolif**


 * Bandow, 2009, senior fellow at the Cato Institute** [Doug, August 31, “Tokyo Drift,” available at http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=10496, accessed on 7/14/2010]

Particularly important is the future of so-called extended deterrence. Analysts like Harvard's Joseph Nye take the policy for granted, worrying only about whether or not it is credible. However, __as Beijing develops its own strategic nuclear deterrent against America, the question will arise: should the United States risk Los Angeles for Tokyo__? __The increasing unpredictability of North Korean behavior has led to more discussion in Japan about the possibility of developing a countervailing weapon__. __The potential for further proliferation in the region is worrisome, but no more so than the possibility of a confrontation between the United States and nuclear-armed China over the interests of other nations__. Deterrence can fail. And protecting other nations can lead them to be dangerously irresponsible. In any case, __the United States would be less likely to have to rely on nuclear deterrence for Japan if that nation possessed an adequate conventional defense__. With the rise of prosperous and/or populous allied states (Japan, South Korea, Australia, and several ASEAN nations) as well as friendly powers (India and Indonesia, most notably), Washington is in the position to act as an off-shore balancer, prepared to act against an aggressive hegemonic power should one arise, but not __entangled in daily geopolitical controversies __. America's overwhelming power and geographic isolation give Washington greater flexibility in defending its own security


 * [ ] A US strategy of off-shore balancing solves for Chinese aggression – It maximizes Japan’s deterrent role**


 * Bandow, 2009, senior fellow at the Cato Institute** [Doug, September 2, “Dealing with the New Japan: Washington Won't Take "No" for an Answer,” available at http://www.cato.org/pub_display.ph p?pub_id=10513, accessed on 7/14/2010]

Actually, Americans should be as interested as Japanese in transforming the U.S.-Japan alliance. The current relationship remains trapped in a world that no longer exists. The imperial Japanese navy has been rusting away on the bottom of the Pacific for more than six decades; Douglas MacArthur departed as American regent in Tokyo nearly a half century ago; __China buried Maoism__ with Mao Zedong __more than three decades ago__; the Cold War ended two decades ago; Japan retains the world's second (or third, based on purchasing power parity) largest economy despite "the lost decade." Yet __Japan remains dependent on America for its security__, a minor military player despite having global economic and political interests. There are historic reasons for Tokyo's stunted international role, but it is time for East Asian countries to work together to dispel the remaining ghosts of Japanese imperialism __past__ rather than to expect America to continue acting as the defender of last resort. __Since Japan and Asia have changed, so should America's defense strategy__. There should be no more troops based on Japanese soil. No more military units tasked for Japan's defense. No more security guarantee for Japan. __The U.S. should adopt a strategy of off-shore balancer __, expecting friendly states to defend themselves, while being ready to act if an overwhelming, hegemonic threat eventually arises. __China is the most, but still not very, plausible candidate for such a role — and even then not for many years__. __Washington's job is not to tell Japan, which devotes about one percent of its GDP, one-fourth the U.S level, to the military, to do more. Washington's job is to do less. Tokyo should spend whatever it believes to be necessary on its so-called "Self-Defense Force." Better relations with China would lower that number__. So would reform in North Korea. Of course, the former isn't certain while the latter isn't likely: let Japan assess the risks and act accordingly. In any case, the U.S. should indicate its respect for Japanese democracy and willingness to accommodate itself to Tokyo's changing priorities. Reverse the situation and Americans would expect the Japanese to do likewise.

Proliferation
[ ] Offshore balancing allows America to avoid getting involved on conflict and allows the United States to thwart nuclear proliferation

Newsweek 08- (December 31, [|John J. Mearsheimer], __http://www.newsweek.com/2008/12/30/pull-those-boots-off-the-ground.html__)

Offshore balancing has three particular virtues that would be especially appealing today. __It would significantly reduce__ (though not eliminate) __the chances that the United States would get involved in another bloody and costly war like Iraq. America doesn't need to control the Middle East with its own forces; it merely needs to ensure that no other country does.__ Toward that end, offshore balancing would reject the use of military force to reshape the politics of the region and would rely instead on local allies to contain their dangerous neighbors. __As an offshore balancer, the United States would husband its own resources and intervene only as a last resort. And when it did, it would finish quickly and then move back offshore. Offshore balancing would reduce fears in Iran and Syria that the United States aims to attack them and remove their regimes—a key reason these states are currently seeking weapons of mass destruction.__ Persuading Tehran to abandon its nuclear program will require Washington to address Iran's legitimate security concerns and to refrain from issuing overt threats. Removing U.S. troops from the neighborhood would be a good start. __The United States can't afford to completely disengage from the Middle East, but offshore balancing would make U.S. involvement there less threatening.__ Instead of lumping potential foes together and encouraging them to join forces against America, __this strategy would encourage contending regional powers to compete for the United States' favor, thereby facilitating a strategy of divide-and-conquer.__

Solvency

 * Changing the US Japan alliance makes it more stable – Japanese independence would raise public support**


 * Preble, 2006, director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute** [Christopher, April 18, “Rethinking the U.S.-Japan Strategic Relationship”, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=6335, accessed 7/14/10]

In each of the three crises discussed above, a Japanese prime minister less closely aligned with the United States might well have behaved in a different fashion. Indeed, the opposition DPJ has long advocated a more independent posture vis-à-vis the United States.90 __The key to understanding the evolution of the U.S.-Japan strategic relationship depends__, therefore, on more than the words and actions of a few individuals at the top; __one must consider broader Japanese and American interests and domestic public opinion in both countries. A U.S.-Japan strategic relationship that more closely resembles an alliance in the traditional sense of the term, as opposed to the current patron-client relationship, is likely to be an enduring model for U.S.-Japanese security cooperation in the future, especially if it is based on popular support__. __Fortunately, popular sentiment within Japan offers still more clues about how the three cases discussed above might play out in a future in which Japan behaves as a normal country__, that is, as a country responsible for defending its interests, and not dependent on the United States.

=Regime Stability=


 * [ ] Recent Upper House elections prove that Japan’s government is weak – the DPJ was given a resounding defeat.**


 * Klingner 2010 -senior research fellow for Northeast Asia at the Heritage Foundation's Asian Studies Center** [Bruce, “More political stalemate for Japan” July 15, 2010, accessed July 17, http://www.heritage.org/Research/Commentary/2010/07/More-political-stalemate-for-Japan]

__A year ago, the Democratic Party of Japan's (DPJ) landslide victory in the Lower House election ushered in euphoric predictions of bold new policies and even a transformation of the Japanese political system__. There were widespread hopes that the DPJ would break the streak of Japan's revolving door of short-lived leaders. Instead, Prime Minister Yukio __Hatoyama's tenure has proved to be a slow motion train wreck and "Hatoyama leadership" has became an oxymoron. Indeed, the DPJ quickly showed itself to be no more competent in governing Japan than its much-derided opponent, the Liberal Democratic Party __ (LDP). After shedding its twin albatrosses of Hatoyama and DPJ general secretary Ichiro Ozawa, as well as many of its earlier campaign pledges, __the DPJ hoped for a respectable showing in the July 11 Upper House election. Instead, the electorate delivered a painful thrashing to the DPJ that may prove fatal for Prime Minister Naoto Kan. The DPJ will now be even more focused on politics than policymaking, leaving the Japanese ship of state rudderless and adrift in the troubled waters of East Asia__.


 * cx-appy global security.org 9 here as well: public doesn’t like the bases**

Yet despite Japan's severe problems, its political system has given its people a string of short-lived, ineffective leaders. **__In the last four years it has gone through four prime ministers in rapid succession,__** __with Mr. Kan now the nation's fifth leader since 2006.__ His immediate predecessor, Yukio __Hatoyama__, __lasted just eight months__. He was driven out by plunging approval ratings after breaking campaign promises and seeming to fritter away the Democrats' historic election mandate to shake up this stagnant nation. Stretch the timeframe back to 1990, the approximate beginning of Japan's stubborn economic funk, and the ailing Asian economic giant has seen 13 prime ministers come and go before Mr. Kan. Even Japanese political scientists feel hard-pressed to name them all. We are competing with Italy to create forgettable leaders, said Mayumi Itoh, the author of The Hatoyama Dynasty: Japanese Political Leadership Through the Generations, a book about Mr. Hatoyama and his Kennedy-like political family. **__Mr. Kan's ability to fare better than his predecessors will depend largely on how well he grasps the reasons that drove them from office,__** __say Ms. Itoh and other political experts. And while experts cite a host of factors - from outmoded political parties to the emergence of an ingrown leadership class - most agree that the underlying problem seems to be a growing gap in expectations between Japan's public and its political leaders. What voters want, say political experts, is a leader who seems to understand their concerns, and who also seems to offer the vision and courage to point a way out. But all Japan's unresponsive political system has seemed capable of producing is prime ministers who only worry about internal party politics, consensus-building and not stepping on the toes of the nation's many interest groups, experts say .__ Japan has gone through 20 years of economic stagnation, and there is a lot of pain out there, so voters are much more impatient for dramatic reform than politicians realize, said Jeff Kingston, a professor of Japanese politics at Temple University in Tokyo. Voters feel a lot more urgency than their leaders do.
 * Kan needs** **remove the bases in order to appease the Okinwa public**
 * Fackler, 6/15** (6/15/10, Martin, The International Herald Tribune, “Japanese Leader’s Most Daunting Task? Staying in Office”, http://www.lexisnexis.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T9621965671&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T9621965678&cisb=22_T9621965677&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=8357&docNo=2)

Economy

 * The Impact is the Economy**


 * __Political instability causes a Greece-like meltdown in Japan__** **__– the brink is NOW__**
 * __Jakarta Post, ’10__** __(6/14/10, The Jakarta Post, “East Asia needs a strong Japan,” [])__

__Protracted uncertainties in Japanese politics have further undermined the country’s efforts to regain its status as a significant player in East Asia. As the region is being transformed by the rise of China and the arrival of India as two new major powers, Japan has struggled to prove its relevance in the regional strategic equation. It is true that Japan remains an important economic power in the region and beyond. Yet, East Asia has now become a region shaped by countries with both economic and strategic significance. Even as an economic power, Japan is being challenged by China as the second largest economy in the world, and **the prospect for Japan to revitalize its economy remains uncertain.** In fact, Prime Minister Kan even warned that Japan could face a similar fate as Greece if it did not resolve its mounting national debt, which has reached 218.6 percent of its gross domestic product in 2009. Aware of the danger, as a new leader, Prime Minister Kan has promised to restore Japan’s economic vitality and aimed for more than 2 percent of annual growth by 2020. The challenge for Japan in achieving that target is enormous. In addition to economic problems, **the dynamic of Japan’s internal politics often renders it difficult for any government to push for necessary reforms.** For example, it is not immediately clear how long Prime Minister Kan would survive. One cannot be sure whether the DPJ would be able to maintain its grip on power in the next election.__


 * Japan’s debt problem risks global economic collapse—need strong leadership for reform**
 * The Economist, 6/5** (6/5/10, “Leaderless Japan; Yukio Hatoyama Resigns”, http://www.lexisnexis.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T9621498533&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T9621498537&cisb=22_T9621498536&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=7955&docNo=3)

__It **used to be the envy of the world; now the hope is that things have got so bad that reform is finally possible SINCE 2006 Japan has had no fewer than five prime ministers.** Three of them lasted just a year. The feckless Yukio Hatoyama, who stepped down on June 2nd, managed a grand total of 259 days.__ Particularly dispiriting about Mr Hatoyama's sudden departure is that his election last August looked as if it marked the start of something new in Japanese politics after decades of rule by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). His government has turned out to be as incompetent, aimless and tainted by scandal as its predecessors. Much of the responsibility for the mess belongs with Mr Hatoyama. The man known as "the alien", who says the sight of a little bird last weekend gave him the idea to resign, has shown breathtaking lack of leadership. Although support for his Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has slumped in opinion polls and the government relied on minor parties, the most glaring liabilities have been over Mr Hatoyama's own murky financial affairs and his dithering about where to put an American military base. The question for the next prime minister, to be picked in a DPJ vote on June 4th, is whether Mr Hatoyama's failure means that Japan's nine-month experiment with two-party democracy has been a misconceived disaster. The answer is of interest not just within Japan. __Such is the recent merry-go-round of prime ministers that it is easy to assume that whoever runs the show makes no difference to the performance of the world's second-largest economy. Now Japan's prominence in Asia has so clearly been eclipsed by China, its flimsy politicians are all the easier to dismiss. But that dangerously underestimates Japan's importance to the world and the troubles it faces. **With the largest amount of debt relative to the size of its economy among the rich countries, and a stubborn deflation problem to boot, Japan has an economic time-bomb ticking beneath it**. It may be able to service its debt comfortably for the time being, but the euro zone serves as a reminder that Japan needs strong leadership to stop the bomb from exploding.__


 * Japanese economy is key to the global economy and to check back Chinese nuclear conflict**

(“Defenseless Japan Awaits Typhoon,” pg online @ lexis //ag) Even so, __the west cannot afford to be complacent about what is happening in Japan, unless it intends to use the country as a test case to explore whether a full-scale depression is less painful now than it was 70 years ago.__ __Action is needed,__ and quickly because __this is an economy that could soak up some of the world's excess capacity if functioning properly__. **__A strong Japan is not only essential for the long-term health of the global economy, it is also needed as a counter-weight to the growing power of China.__** __A__ collapse in the Japanese economy, which looks ever more likely, __would__ have profound ramifications __; some experts believe it could even unleash a wave of extreme nationalism that would push the country into conflict with its bigger (and nuclear) neighbour.__
 * The Guardian, 2/11/02**


 * Economic decline causes a nuclear war**
 * Mead, ‘92**( Walter Russell, NPQ’S Board of advisors, New perspectives quarterly, summer 1992, page 30 )

Hundreds of millions - billions - of people have pinned their hopes on the international market economy. They and their leaders have embraced market principles -- and drawn closer to the west – because they believe that our system can work for them. But what if it can't? What if the global economy stagnates - or even shrinks? In that case, **__we will face a new period of international conflict__**: South against North, rich against poor. Russia, China, India - These countries with their billions of people and their nuclear weapons will pose a much greater danger to world order than Germany and Japan did in the 30s.

2ND VERSION 1AC


 * __Contention 1 is Inherency__**

GlobalSecurity.org, Updated //(, Military, , ) __The__ United States and Japan agreed __in 2006__ to move Marine Corps Air Station Futenma to another part of the island __in five years__. __But the__ new Japanese administration wants that plan put on hold __. In 2006, Japan and the United States agreed to close Futenma and move its facilities to another Marine base with a heliport built on reclaimed land offshore__. __That agreement also called for 8,000 marines to be moved off Okinawa, to the US territory of Guam__. The plan came after 15 years of negotiations but __Japan's new government now wants to reconsider it__. Prime Minister Yukio __Hatoyama and his Democratic Party of Japan won a historic election in August, in part by calling for a review of that 2006 agreement. Four__ DPJ members __from Okinawa__ won parliamentary seats with promises of reducing the US troop presence on the island. The Department of Defense believes that Marine Corps forces along with other US forces on Okinawa satisfy the US national security strategy by visably demonstrating the US commitment to security in the region. These forces are thought to deter aggression, provide a crisis response capability should deterrence fail, and avoid the risk that US allies may interpret the withdrawal of forces as a lessening of US commitment to peace and stability in the region. __By 2003 the US was considering moving most of the 20,000 Marines on Okinawa to new bases__ that would be established in Australia; increasing the presence of US troops in Singapore and Malaysia; and seeking agreements to base Navy ships in Vietnamese waters and ground troops in the Philippines. __For the Marines based on Okinawa__, most for months without their families, __the US is considering a major shift. Under plans on the table, all but about 5,000 of the Marines would move, possibly to Australia__. __During 2004 Japan and the United States continued discussions on plans to scale back the US military presence in the country.__ Tokyo will ask Washington to move some Marines now on the southern island of Okinawa outside the country. __There is no doubt some changes will be made to the Okinawa forces__. __The__ US Marines are a tremendous burden in Okinawa, particularly the infantry and the training needs of the infantry in Okinawa can't really be met on the island, given the sensitivities there. Okinawa accounts for less than one percent of Japan's land, but hosts about two-thirds of the 40,000 American forces in the country. In recent years, Okinawans have grown increasingly angry about the military presence, because of land disputes and highly publicized violent crimes committed by a few U.S. troops. In return for moving troops outside the country, Japan would provide pre-positioning facilities for weapons, fuel and other equipment for the US military.
 * The U.S. and Japan agreed to relocate the Futenma Base to Nago – Prime Minister Hatoyama promised Japan closing of the base in Futenma with no relocation – U.S. plans a dramatic withdrawal of presence now, but continues plans for relocation to Nago**
 * Global Security.ORG 9** – Staff writer (16 11, “Okinawa, Japan”, http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/facility/okinawa.htm)


 * The Democratic Party of Japan promised to kick Futenma off the island and to preven the relocation of the base, but they have failed to deliver their promise. The U.S. must initiate withdrawal.**
 * Bandow 6/2** senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to Reagan J.D [Doug, June,2010 . from Stanford University http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/2010/06/02/needed-a-new-u-s-defense-policy-for-japan/; WBTR]

Okinawans __long ago__ tired, understandably, of __the burden and **have been**__ pressing for the removal of at least some bases __. The__ DPJ __campaigned to create a more equal alliance__ with America __and__ promised __to revisit plans__ by the previous government to relocate America’s Futenma facility elsewhere on the island. __However, under__ strong U.S. pressure Hatoyama reversed course __.__ __He said the rising tensions on the Korean peninsula reminded him about the value of America’s military presence.__ Japan’s military dependency is precisely the problem. American taxpayers have paid to defend Japan for 65 years. Doing so made sense in the aftermath of World War II, when Japan was recovering from war and Tokyo’s neighbors feared a revived Japanese military. But long ago it became ridiculous for Americans to defend the world’s second-ranking power and its region. __Of course, having turned its defense over to Washington, Tokyo could do no more than beg the U.S. to move its base.__ After all__,__ if Americans are going to do Japan’s dirty defense work, Americans are entitled to have convenient base access __. Irrespective of what the Okinawans desire. Unfortunately, Hatoyama’s resignation isn’t likely to change anything. The new prime minister won’t be much different from the old one. Or the ones before him__. If change is to come to the U.S.-Japan security relationship, it will have to come from America. And it should start with professed fiscal conservatives asking why the U.S. taxpayers, on the hook for a $1.6 trillion deficit this year alone, must forever subsidize the nation with the world’s second-largest economy?


 * Plan: The United States federal government should close the Futenma Air Base and withdraw those forces from Okinawa.**


 * __Contention 2 is Japan-US__** **__Alliance__**

(Doug, Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute, “Japan Can Defend Itself,” Cato Institute, pg online @ **[]** //ag) __Making fewer promises to intervene would allow the United States to reduce the number of military personnel and overseas bases. A good place to start in cutting international installations would be Okinawa__. America's post-Cold War dominance is coming to an end. Michael Schuman argued in Time: "__Anyone who thinks the balance of power in Asia is not changing — and with it, the strength of the U.__S., even among its old allies — __hasn't been there lately."__ Many analysts nevertheless want the United States to attempt to maintain its unnatural dominance. Rather than accommodate a more powerful China, they want America to contain a wealthier and more influential Beijing. Rather than expect its allies to defend themselves and promote regional stability, they want Washington to keep its friends dependent. To coin a phrase, **__it's time for a change. U.S. intransigence over Okinawa has badly roiled the bilateral relationship. But even a more flexible basing policy would not be enough__**. __Washington is risking the lives and wasting the money of the American people to defend other populous and prosperous states.__ Washington should close Futenma — as a start to refashioning the alliance with Japan. __Rather than a unilateral promise by the United States to defend Japan, the relationship should become one of equals working together on issues of mutual interest. Responsibility for protecting Japan should become that of Japan.__ Both Okinawans and Americans deserve justice. It's time for Washington to deliver.
 * US presence in Okinawa is damaging US Japan relations**
 * Bandow, 5/12/10**

[The Marine base at Futenma has been a sore point between the U.S. and Japan for years __. The noise__ of the base's aircraft __and the rowdy and drunken behavior of some__ Marines have made the base unpopular in Okinawa __and elsewhere in Japan__. Several times in recent years, __the U.S. offered a proposal to solve the problem, but it would still leave much of Futenma intact,__ says Koichi Nakano, a political analyst at Sophia University. " The U.S. government [has] repeatedly said that [it wants] to relocate to a place where [it] will be welcome. __That__ welcome __is simply__ not there in Okinawa __at the moment,__" Nakano says. __The__ U.S. says __it will transfer 8,000 Marines to Guam and__ move a portion of the base to another part of Okinawa __.__ Kan, __the new prime minister, has pledged to seek a solution that is in line with this offer, but he still faces overwhelming opposition__ on Okinawa, Honda says. "So far __mayors, governors and local politicians__ in Okinawa, everybody [is] against the proposal of the new government __. So he will be completely blocked by this__," he says.] Seeking A More Equal Relationship With U.S. Last month, 17,000 Okinawans formed a human chain around the base in protest. Part of the problem is the feeling on Okinawa that its people bear a disproportionate burden of the continued American military presence in Japan. The small island represents less than 1 percent of Japan's population, but it maintains some three-quarters of the U.S. military forces in Japan.
 * Futenma Air Base is the sorest point between the US and Japan; must be removed, not relocated**
 * Shuster, 10** (6/21/10, Mike, National Public Radio, “Japan's PM Faces Test Over U.S. Base On Okinawa,” [])


 * __Appeasing the Okinawans over Futenma key to Japan-US alliance__**
 * __Tanaka, ’10__** __– Senior Fellow at the Japan Center for International Exchange (2/10, Hitoshi, “The US-Japan Alliance: Beyond Futenma,” [])__

On the other hand, it is important to recognize that the burden of maintaining the US-Japan security alliance has been disproportionately shouldered by local citizens in a few areas in Japan, especially in Okinawa. In today’s world, it is natural for people in a place like Okinawa, which hosts 75 per cent of the US military facilities for the entire country of Japan, to be bothered by the presence of foreign bases and another country’s soldiers, with all the disruption they inevitably bring. If local relations cannot be managed skillfully, the entire US-Japan security alliance can be put at risk. The Japanese and US governments established the SACO [Special Action Committee on Okinawa] process in 1995 to work to reduce the US military footprint, but unfortunately they have not yet put in place a precise implementation plan for the reversion of the Marine Corps base, Futenma Air Station, which is in a heavily populated area and has become a prominent issue in bilateral relations. The relocation of the base to new facilities in Okinawa simply cannot be implemented without eventually gaining the acquiescence of local communities. Given all of the time and energy that has gone into pushing forward the current agreement, it is entirely understandable for the US government to claim that there is no alternative to the existing relocation agreement. Nevertheless, we cannot deny the fact that there has been a sea change in Japan. The Democratic Party of Japan came to power on the strength of a campaign that, in part, opposed the current agreement, and the local community of Nago voted on January 24 to repudiate the base move to their city in a mayoral election that was widely perceived as a referendum on the relocation plan. Democratic governments have to find some way to respond to the voices of their people, and the Japanese government cannot simply disregard these pressures.


 * Relations are key to Asian stability – prevents conflict in Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, and southeast asia – each can go nuclear – as relations wander the US MUST renew the alliance**
 * INSS 2k** (Institute for National Strategic Studies – National Defense University. //The United States and Japan: Advancing Toward a Mature Partnership//, October, http://www.ndu.edu/inss/strforum/SR_01/SR_Japan.htm)

Major war in Europe is inconceivable for at least a generation, but __the prospects for__ conflict in Asia are far from remote. __The region features some of the world’s largest__ and most modern armies, __nuclear-armed major powers__, and several nuclear-capable states. __Hostilities that could directly involve the U__nited __S__tates __in **a major conflict could occur at a moment’s notice** on the Korean peninsula and in the Taiwan Strait. The Indian subcontinent is a major flashpoint__. **In each area, __war has the potential of nuclear escalation__**__. In addition__, lingering turmoil in __Indonesia__, the world’s fourth-largest nation, __threatens stability in Southeast Asia. The U__nited __S__tates __is tied to the region by a series of bilateral security alliances that remain the region’s de facto security architecture.__ In this promising but also potentially dangerous setting**__, the U.S.-Japan bilateral relationship is more important than ever__**__. With the world’s second-largest economy and a well-equipped and competent military, and as our democratic ally, **Japan remains the keystone of the U.S. involvement in Asia**. The U.S.-Japan alliance is central to America’s global security strategy. Japan, too, is experiencing an important transition__. Driven in large part by the forces of globalization, Japan is __in the midst of its greatest social and economic transformation since the end of W__orld __W__ar __II.__ Japanese society, economy, national identity, and international role are undergoing change that is potentially as fundamental as that Japan experienced during the Meiji Restoration. The effects of this transformation are yet to be fully understood. Just as Western countries dramatically underestimated the potential of the modern nation that emerged from the Meiji Restoration, many are ignoring a similar transition the effects of which, while not immediately apparent, could be no less profound**__. For the U__**nited **__S__**tates, **__the key to sustaining and enhancing the alliance in the 21st century lies in reshaping our bilateral relationship__** in a way that anticipates the consequences of changes now underway in Japan. Since the end of World War II, **__Japan has played a positive role in Asia.__** __As a mature democracy with an educated and active electorate, Japan has demonstrated that changes in government can occur peacefully__. __Tokyo has helped to foster regional stability and build confidence through its proactive diplomacy and economic involvement throughout the region.__ Japan's participation in the United Nations peacekeeping mission in Cambodia in the early 1990s, its various defense exchanges and security dialogues, and its participation in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Regional Forum and the new “Plus Three” grouping are further testimony to Tokyo's increasing activism. Most significantly**__, Japan's alliance with the U__**nited **__S__**tates **__has served as the foundation for regional order.__** We have considered six key elements of the U.S.-Japan relationship and put forth a bipartisan action agenda aimed at creating an enduring alliance foundation for the 21st century. Post-Cold War Drift As partners in the broad Western alliance, the United States and Japan worked together to win __the Cold War__ and helped to usher in a new era of democracy and economic opportunity in Asia. __In the aftermath__ of our shared victory, however__, the course of U.S.-Japan relations has wandered__, losing its focus and coherence--notwithstanding the real threats and potential risks facing both partners. __Once freed from the strategic constraints of containing the Soviet Union, both Washington and Tokyo ignored the real, practical, and pressing needs of the bilateral alliance__. Well-intentioned efforts to find substitutes for concrete collaboration and clear goal-setting have produced a diffuse dialogue but no clear definition of a common purpose. __Efforts to experiment with new concepts of international security have proceeded fitfully, but without discernable results in redefining and reinvigorating bilateral security ties__.


 * Indo-Pak nuclear war will escalate globally and destroy the planet**
 * Caldicott 02,** Founder of Physicians for Social Responsibility [Helen, The New Nuclear Danger: George W. Bush’s Military-Industrial Complex, p. X]
 * __The use of Pakistani nuclear weapons could trigger a chain reaction.__** __Nuclear-armed India, an ancient enemy, could respond in kind. China, India's hated foe, could react if India used her nuclear weapons, **triggering a nuclear holocaust**__ on the subcontinent. __If any of either Russia or America's__ 2,__250 strategic weapons on hair-trigger alert were launched__ either accidentally or purposefully in response, __nuclear winter would ensue, meaning the__ end of most life on earth __.__

Strait Times 2k **(June 25, “Regional Fallout: No one gains in war over Taiwan”, Lexis)**
 * Taiwan conflict leads to nuclear armageddon**

THE DOOMSDAY SCENARIO THE high-intensity scenario postulates __a cross-strait__ war escalating into a full-scale war between the US and China. __If Washington were to conclude that splitting China would better serve its national interests, then **a full-scale war becomes unavoidable**__**. __Conflict on such a scale would embroil__** __other countries__ far and near __and__ -- horror of horrors -- __raise the possibility of a **nuclear war**.__ Beijing has already told the US and Japan privately that it considers any country providing bases and logistics support to a2 y US forces attacking China as belligerent parties open to its retaliation. In the region, this means South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and, to a lesser extent, Singapore. __If China were to retaliate,__ east Asia will be set on fire. And __the conflagration may not end there as opportunistic powers elsewhere may try to overturn the existing world order__. __With the US distracted, Russia may seek to redefine Europe's political landscape__. __The balance of power in the Middle East may be similarly upset__ by the likes of Iraq. In south Asia, __hostilities between India and Pakistan, each armed with its own nuclear arsenal, could enter a new and dangerous phase.__ Will a full-scale Sino-US war lead to a nuclear war? __According to General__ Matthew __Ridgeway, commander of the US Eighth Army which fought against the Chinese in the Korean War, the US had__ at the time __thought of using nuclear weapons against China__ to save the US from military defeat. In his book The Korean War, a personal account of the military and political aspects of the conflict and its implications on future US foreign policy, Gen Ridgeway said that US was confronted with two choices in Korea -- truce or a broadened war, which could have led to the use of nuclear weapons. __If the US had to resort to nuclear weaponry to defeat China long before the latter acquired a similar capability, there is little hope of winning a war against China 50 years later, short of using nuclear weapons.__ The US estimates that __China possesses about 20 nuclear warheads that can destroy major American cities__. __Beijing also seems prepared to go for the nuclear option__. A __Chinese military officer disclosed__ recently __that Beijing was considering a review of its "non first use" principle__ regarding nuclear weapons. Major-General Pan Zhangqiang, president of the military-funded Institute for Strategic Studies, told a gathering at the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars in Washington that although the government still abided by that principle, __there were strong pressures from the military to drop it.__ He said __military leaders considered the use of nuclear weapons mandatory if the country risked dismemberment as a result of foreign intervention.__ Gen Ridgeway said that should that come to pass, __we would see the destruction of civilization__. __There would be no victors in such a war. **While the prospect of a** **nuclear Armageddon** over Taiwan might seem inconceivable, **it cannot be ruled out** entirely, **for China puts sovereignty above everything else****.**__

Starting with a proposal to integrate it with the U.S. Kadena Air Base, Japan and the United States have discussed, both formally and informally, various options on where to relocate the U.S. Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station in Ginowan, Okinawa Prefecture. __The__ biggest issue __has been how to simultaneously achieve the goals of reducing Okinawa Prefecture's burden of hosting bases while__ maintain __ing the__ national deterrence against foreign threats __. T__o move the Futenma facility out of the prefecture, two problems must be addressed: Managing the burden on the local government that accepts relocation and determining who has the right to manage air traffic control at and around the relocated base. First, if the Futenma facility is moved out of the prefecture, the marine corps' helicopter unit based at the facility also should be moved. If the helicopter unit is the only unit that is moved out of the prefecture, the rest of the marines in the prefecture would be cut off from their means of transportation and their day-to-day training would be disrupted. Additionally, it would take longer to mobilize them in an emergency as they would have to wait for helicopters that would have to come from far away. This means a local government that would accept the Futenma facility also would have to accept the 1,000-strong infantry combat force at Camp Schwab in Nago, Okinawa Prefecture, and facilities for its day-to-day training operations, such as landing drills and urban-area combat drills. The burden is too big for a local government to bear. Former Nago mayor Yoshikazu Shimabukuro, who lost the recent local election, told me: "There will be no local government that would accept it. I want you to understand that it's a miracle that Nago would accept it." Second, there is a problem of air traffic control for the facility. The U.S. military in Japan holds air traffic control rights for six air bases, including Yokota in Tokyo, Misawa in Aomori Prefecture and Futenma and Kadena in Okinawa Prefecture. A Defense Ministry official says, "[The rights are] to make sure planes will fly freely in emergencies, and they'll never let them go." Currently, air traffic controllers of the Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Ministry control air traffic at most regional airports and surrounding areas. But realistically speaking, it is not easy for the government's air traffic control officials to control U.S. military planes that make repeated takeoffs and landings in training. If the government lets the marines control the air traffic at and around a relocated base, depending on the frequency of training, operation of commercial planes still may be affected. The previous government led by the Liberal Democratic Party could not solve the two problems, and it decided to relocate the Futenma facility within Okinawa Prefecture. Among several possible locations, Japan and the United States picked a feasible one--the coastal area of the Henoko district of Nago. That is why the United States insists the current plan is the best option. But the current government led by Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama has been a reed shaken by the wind. His Democratic Party of Japan promised in the campaign for the last House of Representatives election it would move the Futenma facility out of the prefecture, possibly out of the country, if it won the election. But as soon as it saw this was unlikely to happen, the DPJ checked out Iejima island in the prefecture, an option that had been dismissed in the bilateral discussions. It also has shown interest in seeking a new candidate site on the east coast of Okinawa Island. The surprised Okinawa Gov. Hirokazu Nakaima said, "I'd thought [people in the government] were seeking somewhere out of the prefecture and out of the country, but they're visiting various places in the prefecture." It is a grim reality that the nightmarish worst scenario is that the Futenma functions will not be relocated and will remain where they are. As of out-of-Okinawa options, the government has approached Saga and Shizuoka airports as well as the Maritime Self-Defense Force's Omura Air Base in Nagasaki Prefecture. Before referring to a new option whenever it pops up in mind, the __Hatoyama administration should examine the process of past Japan-U.S. talks and work on the two problems that the previous government could not solve. At the same time, it should seek to restore the Japan-U.S. relationship, which has hit a sour note, and ask the United States to sit down and discuss the Futenma issue once again. It will not produce a good result if Japan picks a relocation site on its own and simply informs the United States of its decision. **Relocating Futenma accomplishes the goal of reducing the burden on a local government of hosting bases and is supposed to be on par with maintaining deterrence from foreign threats.** **The biggest deterrent that Japan can present is to show its ties with the United States are close and firm.** **Without such ties, it is impossible to deter threats from North Korea and China**. Few ways are left to remove the burden imposed by the Futenma base as soon as possible while filling the gap between Japan and the United States.__
 * Plan is a prerequisite to the relations needed to deter North Korea and China and create peace in the region**
 * Katsumata and Shimbun 2/5** Senior writers for Daily Yomiuri ( Hidemichi and Yomiuri, 2/5/10, “ Deterrence part of Futenma issue”, [])


 * Solvency:**

Joint Missile Defense

 * First is Missile Defense**
 * US Japan cooperation is necessary for Joint Missile defense – it is key for ongoing tests**


 * Payne, 10,** **Member of the Defense Science Board, the DoD Threat Reduction Advisory Committee,** [Keith Co-chairman of the Nuclear Strategy Forum, Thomas Scheber, Principal Associate Director for Nuclear Weapons Program; March “U.S. Extended Deterrence and Assurance for Allies in Northeast Asia”;[]; Accessed 7/16/10]

In recent years, __joint cooperation on ballistic missile defense has been growing in importance and activity. Japan-U.S. Security Consultative Committee (2+2) meetings typically included discussion of cooperative measures for BMD__. In November 2007, __the defense ministers from both countries met and agreed to advance joint efforts to cooperate on operational aspects.__ 154 In December 2007, a joint BMD test used a SM-3 interceptor fired from a Japanese destroyer, Kongo. __This successful joint live-fire test marked a major milestone in missile defense cooperation with the United States__. In November 2008, a subsequent BMD test involving an interceptor fired by a ship in the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force was partially successful. On October 28, 2009, a Japanese destroyer, JS Myoko, fired an SM-3 interceptor missile which successfully impacted a medium-range ballistic missile about 100 miles above the Pacific Ocean.155 __The United States and Japan are continuing to work together to increase the range and lethality of the SM-3 Block IIA interceptor.156 Japan hosts an X-band radar which is an integral part of the U.S. Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS). Japanese and U.S. forces cooperate in missile defense exercises and are continuing to improve interoperability between elements of each other’s defensive systems. The most recent Japan Defense White Paper calls for continued cooperation with the United States to further strengthen security arrangements on “defense operations.” Specifically, it calls for joint exercises and training to be enhanced, continued stationing of U.S. forces in Japan (but a “realignment of those forces”), cooperation on ballistic missile defense, and close collaboration with the United States in international security efforts. Consistent with this goal, the United States and Japan recently expanded the size and complexity of the annual exercise, Yama Sakura__ (Mountain Cherry Blossom). The exercise, conducted in December 2009 on the northern island of Hokkaido, included over 5,000 troops and involved ballistic missile defense training.157


 * Joint missile defense is key – North Korean missile threat destabilizes Asia causing war**


 * Klingner 2009-Senior Research Fellow for Northeast Asia in the Asian Studies** Center at The Heritage Foundation [Bruce, “North Korea's Missile Gambit” February 17, 2009 WebMemo #2295, accessed July 17, http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2009/02/North-Koreas-Missile-Gambit]

What the U.S. Should Do Emphasize that North Korea's actions are provocative, counterproductive, and call into question Pyongyang's viability as a negotiating partner. Highlight that __North Korea's threatening belligerence, not U.S. "hostile policy" as Pyongyang claims, has hindered negotiations. Affirm U.S. commitment to defend our allies against any North Korean provocation, including missile launches or naval confrontation in the West Sea__. Underscore Secretary of Defense Robert Gates' pledge to shoot down the North Korean missile if it approaches U.S. territory. Emphasize that __North Korea's missile threat demonstrates the continuing need for the U.S., Japan, and South Korea to develop and deploy missile defense systems. It is ironic that President Obama's Secretary of Defense has suggested using missile defenses that Obama would likely not have funded had he been in office during their development. Declare that the U.S. is willing to resume negotiations to eliminate North Korea's missile threats to its neighbors. Such negotiations, however, must comprehensively constrain missile development, deployment, and proliferation rather than simply seeking a quid pro quo agreement-__-cash payments in exchange for not exporting missile technology. Nor should such negotiations deflect attention from Pyongyang's denuclearization requirements in the Six Party Talks.

Economic Warfare

 * Second– Economic warfare - US Japan relations key to the US economy – Japan owns a significant portion of US debt in Treasury bills and could dispose of those assets**


 * Curits 10** – **Professor of political science at Columbia University** (Gerald, “Getting the Triangle Straight: China, Japan, and the United States in An Era of Change,” form the publication Getting the Triangle Straight: Managing China-Japan-US Relations, p. 9, accessed 7/18/10, pub. JCIE, ed. Gerald Curtis, Ryosei Kokubun, and Wang Jisi, http://www.jcie.org/researchpdfs/Triangle/1_curtis.pdf) Red

__Many of the exports from other Asian countries to China, it needs to be pointed out, consist of components for products that are assembled in China for export to the United States__ and to other countries. __The US market will remain critically important for all Asian economies,__ but its relative importance will continue to decline, especially as the Asian middle class grows larger and consumes a larger share of the products produced by Asia’s cross-border production networks. T__he UnitedStates, for its part, will have to adopt policies that reassure foreign holders of American treasury bonds—particularly China and Japan, which are the largest holders of those bonds—that the value of their holdings is secure. Leverage, of course, is not all on one side. China’s huge holdings of US Treasury bills creates something of an economic equivalent to the theory of mutually assured destruction__ that is applied to the balance of nuclear terror: __China could impose devastating damage on the US economy by disposing of these assets, but not without creating substantial distress to its own economy. Japan is in a similar situation, though its heavy dependence on the United States for its security makes it more unlikely than in China’s case that it would take actions that the United States would perceive as hostile.__ Nonetheless,__the reality that the United States depends on foreign financing of its government deficit changes the dynamic between the United States and the countries whose willingness to buy that debt is crucial to America’s economic wellbeing.__

Multilateralism

 * Third – East Asian Multilateralism - The US Japan Alliance is crucial for Japan to expand its Multilateral leadership in East Asia – our cooperation on security issues will expand Japan’s international role**


 * Chanlett-Avery, 09 Specialist in Asian Affairs Congressional Research** Service [Emma Chanlett-Avery, William H. Cooper, Specialist in International Trade and Finance Congressional Research Service; 11/25/09; “Japan-U.S. Relations: Issues for Congress”; [|http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-in/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA511942& Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf]; accessed: 7/14/10]

__As the DPJ settles into its new role as the main ruling party, it may over time show greater confidence in following through on its long-promised vision of a more assertive foreign policy for Japan__. Among some of the measures called for by the DPJ are expanding Japan’s role in U.N.sanctioned peacekeeping operations, deepening ties with Asia, taking greater responsibility for defending the Japanese homeland, expanding regional and bilateral free trade agreements (FTA), and promoting an ambitious new set of global climate change standards. __Although the move toward a U.N. and Asia-centered diplomacy may be perceived as a less U.S.-centric approach, such a trend may not necessarily signify a divergence from broader U.S. goals and interests. The DPJ’s vision of a “proactive” foreign policy that would enhance Japan’s international contributions is one that is likely to be broadly supported by Washington__. Indeed, there are several areas where the new government in Tokyo may cooperate closely with Obama Administration initiatives, from setting new global warming standards to nuclear nonproliferation efforts. Several upcoming high-level events, including a planned bilateral summit in Tokyo in November 2009, will provide opportunities for President Obama to discuss issues of mutual interest with newly elected Prime Minister Hatoyama.


 * Engagement in multilateralism prevents East Asian nationalistic conflict – better public opinion, and understanding.**


 * Tanaka, 08** – **Senior Fellow at the Japan Centre for International Exchange** (Hitoshi, “The Strategic Rationale for East Asia Community Building,” from the publication East Asia at a Crossroads, pp. 99-100, ed. Jusuf Wanandi and Tadashi Yamamoto, published by JCIE, accessed 7/15/10, http://www.jcie.org/researchpdfs/crossroads/chp6_tanaka.pdf) Red

__Whenever one looks for the origins of nationalistic sentiment in Northeast Asia,__ be it anti-Japanese sentiment in China, anti-Japanese/ Chinese sentiment in South Korea, or anti-Chinese/North Korean sentiment in Japan, the __answer often lies at least partially in domestic politics.7 Leaders in any number of political systems sometimes see the pursuit of a populist or nationalistic foreign policy as a means of garnering popular support. Although such tactics may succeed in reaping short-term gains for the party in power, they can have dangerous consequences in the long run. In contrast, the leaders of a nation that is a member of a community that has adopted a norm of seeking multilateral solutions to intraregional issues depend on their neighbors for help in addressing problems outside national borders.__ __Since regional stability is central to the national interest, the state’s leaders will show an increased sensitivity to views and expectations of community partners rather than depending solely on the popular support of domestic constituencies. As domestic constituencies come to see the benefits of a more constructive and cooperative foreign policy, popular opinion will become increasingly supportive. The end result would be a more rational (or, at the very least, less provocative) foreign policy and mutually beneficial (as opposed to zero-sum) calculations of national interest.__ In short, __as states become socialized to these norms of interaction, multilateralism may become a means to transcend national egoism and ambition and minimize the deleterious effects of traditional power politics.__ __This process would reduce confrontational nationalistic sentiment and could potentially, one day in the distant future, render concerns about the emergence of a militarist or expansionist power in the region obsolete.__ Any process that is able to remove or at least partially attenuate these concerns, which arguably pose the single largest obstacle to community-building efforts, would make an invaluable contribution to long-term peace and stability in East Asia.


 * Indo-Pak nuclear war will escalate globally and destroy the planet**
 * Caldicott 02,** Founder of Physicians for Social Responsibility [Helen, The New Nuclear Danger: George W. Bush’s Military-Industrial Complex, p. X]
 * The use of Pakistani nuclear weapons could trigger a chain reaction.** __Nuclear-armed India, an ancient enemy, could respond in kind. China, India's hated foe, could react if India used her nuclear weapons,__ **triggering a nuclear holocaust** on the subcontinent. __If any of either Russia or America's__ 2,__250 strategic weapons on hair-trigger alert were launched__ either accidentally or purposefully in response, __nuclear winter would ensue, meaning the__ end of most life on earth __.__

Starting with a proposal to integrate it with the U.S. Kadena Air Base, Japan and the United States have discussed, both formally and informally, various options on where to relocate the U.S. Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station in Ginowan, Okinawa Prefecture. __The__ biggest issue __has been how to simultaneously achieve the goals of reducing Okinawa Prefecture's burden of hosting bases while__ maintain __ing the__ national deterrence against foreign threats __. T__o move the Futenma facility out of the prefecture, two problems must be addressed: Managing the burden on the local government that accepts relocation and determining who has the right to manage air traffic control at and around the relocated base. First, if the Futenma facility is moved out of the prefecture, the marine corps' helicopter unit based at the facility also should be moved. If the helicopter unit is the only unit that is moved out of the prefecture, the rest of the marines in the prefecture would be cut off from their means of transportation and their day-to-day training would be disrupted. Additionally, it would take longer to mobilize them in an emergency as they would have to wait for helicopters that would have to come from far away. This means a local government that would accept the Futenma facility also would have to accept the 1,000-strong infantry combat force at Camp Schwab in Nago, Okinawa Prefecture, and facilities for its day-to-day training operations, such as landing drills and urban-area combat drills. The burden is too big for a local government to bear. Former Nago mayor Yoshikazu Shimabukuro, who lost the recent local election, told me: "There will be no local government that would accept it. I want you to understand that it's a miracle that Nago would accept it." Second, there is a problem of air traffic control for the facility. The U.S. military in Japan holds air traffic control rights for six air bases, including Yokota in Tokyo, Misawa in Aomori Prefecture and Futenma and Kadena in Okinawa Prefecture. A Defense Ministry official says, "[The rights are] to make sure planes will fly freely in emergencies, and they'll never let them go." Currently, air traffic controllers of the Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Ministry control air traffic at most regional airports and surrounding areas. But realistically speaking, it is not easy for the government's air traffic control officials to control U.S. military planes that make repeated takeoffs and landings in training. If the government lets the marines control the air traffic at and around a relocated base, depending on the frequency of training, operation of commercial planes still may be affected. The previous government led by the Liberal Democratic Party could not solve the two problems, and it decided to relocate the Futenma facility within Okinawa Prefecture. Among several possible locations, Japan and the United States picked a feasible one--the coastal area of the Henoko district of Nago. That is why the United States insists the current plan is the best option. But the current government led by Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama has been a reed shaken by the wind. His Democratic Party of Japan promised in the campaign for the last House of Representatives election it would move the Futenma facility out of the prefecture, possibly out of the country, if it won the election. But as soon as it saw this was unlikely to happen, the DPJ checked out Iejima island in the prefecture, an option that had been dismissed in the bilateral discussions. It also has shown interest in seeking a new candidate site on the east coast of Okinawa Island. The surprised Okinawa Gov. Hirokazu Nakaima said, "I'd thought [people in the government] were seeking somewhere out of the prefecture and out of the country, but they're visiting various places in the prefecture." It is a grim reality that the nightmarish worst scenario is that the Futenma functions will not be relocated and will remain where they are. As of out-of-Okinawa options, the government has approached Saga and Shizuoka airports as well as the Maritime Self-Defense Force's Omura Air Base in Nagasaki Prefecture. Before referring to a new option whenever it pops up in mind, the __Hatoyama administration should examine the process of past Japan-U.S. talks and work on the two problems that the previous government could not solve. At the same time, it should seek to restore the Japan-U.S. relationship, which has hit a sour note, and ask the United States to sit down and discuss the Futenma issue once again. It will not produce a good result if Japan picks a relocation site on its own and simply informs the United States of its decision.__ **Relocating Futenma accomplishes the goal of reducing the burden on a local government of hosting bases and is supposed to be on par with maintaining deterrence from foreign threats.** **The biggest deterrent that Japan can present is to show its ties with the United States are close and firm.Without such ties, it is impossible to deter threats from North Korea and China**__. Few ways are left to remove the burden imposed by the Futenma base as soon as possible while filling the gap between Japan and the United States.__
 * Plan is a prerequisite to the relations needed to deter North Korea and China and create peace in the region**
 * Katsumata and Shimbun 2/5** Senior writers for Daily Yomiuri ( Hidemichi and Yomiuri, 2/5/10, “ Deterrence part of Futenma issue”,[])


 * Expanding the US – Japan relations to include other regional players is key to address multilateral threats –prolif, and disease**


 * Tanaka 09 –** **Senior Fellow at the Japan Center for International Exchange** [Hitoshi, “A New Vision for the US-Japan Alliance,” vol. 4 no. 1, pub JCIE, April 2009, accessed 7/14/10, http://www.jcie.or.jp/insights/4-1.html] Red

A New Approach to East Asia Threats to regional stability __increasingly come from nontraditional areas such as WMD proliferation, human and drug trafficking, natural disasters, energy security, environmental degradation, maritime piracy, and infectious disease. All of these challenges__ will require multilateral and cooperative solutions. __The scope of the__ US-Japan alliance must expand beyond bilateral military deterrence. __It must become more inclusive and place__ greater emphasis on functioning more as a public good. Although __Japan and the United States should lead this initiative, efforts will not make much progress without the support of other advanced democracies in the region__ such as South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. The two allies should move to strengthen and expand existing trilateral strategic consultations (e.g. US-Japan-South Korea and US-Japan-Australia). __It should be stressed__, however, that the objective is neither to unilaterally impose western values upon East Asian nations nor to exclude non-democratic nations from reaping the benefits of regional stability and economic prosperity. Rather, __the__ objective is for Japan and the United States to engage states in the region in rules-based communities through inclusive multilateralism __. As states adopt standardized rules and norms of behavior, the transaction costs of interaction will decrease, which will in turn deepen trust, interdependence, and stability throughout East Asia.__ At the same time that __Japan and the United States actively engage China in regional and global rules-based communities and bring it into multilateral dialogue on issues ranging from macroeconomic policy to talks on energy and the environment, they must also work with other US allies to hedge against the uncertainty surrounding China's future. Concerns abound about several aspects of China's foreign policy—including issues related to rapidly rising defense expenditures, military transparency, and its aggressive approach to energy security—and domestic policy—such as CO2 emissions and environmental damage, treatment of minorities, and income disparities. Japan and the United States should place priority on encouraging China to pursue economic policies that will make a constructive contribution to efforts to address the global economic crisis, make its military affairs more transparent, and agree to fully participate in the successor to the Kyoto Protocol. With respect to security issues, Japan and the United States should initiate and institutionalize regular trilateral security dialogue with China__ involving civilian and military personnel. __This would provide a forum through which to advocate increased transparency, reduce mutual suspicions, and consolidate trust between the region's three great powers__. Stable security ties among these three nations are a prerequisite for long-term peace and stability in the region. In recent years, the Six-Party Talks format has emerged as an effective sub-regional security forum for addressing the North Korean nuclear issue, but we still have, unfortunately, a lengthy and bumpy ride ahead of us before the nuclear issue is resolved. This forum, which has succeeded in bringing together the five most powerful states in the region to openly discuss and cooperate in resolving a security issue of common concern, should remain active even after the nuclear issue is settled and be used to address remaining issues on the Korean Peninsula. Emerging nontraditional security issues pose an increasingly serious threat to regional stability __. Building on the existing network of US security partners in the region, Japan and the United States should work with states in the region to establish an East Asia Security Forum to__ proactively address such security issues as human and drug trafficking, natural disasters, infectious disease, resource scarcity, maritime piracy, terrorism, and WMD proliferation __.__ With ASEAN+6 member nations and the United States working in concert, this forum would adopt an action-oriented and functional approach to addressing these threats and carry out operations in a manner similar to the PSI.


 * Disease Pandemic leads to extinction**


 * Toolis, the director of a major television series on the history of plagues, 09** (Kevin, The Express, April 28, 2009 U.K. 1st Edition “Pandemic Pandemonium” lexis)

__It__ __destroyed the Roman Empire, wiped out most of the New World and killed millions in Europe.__ How __disease - not just Mexico's swine fever - has shaped the planet SCIENTISTS call it the Big Die Off, when a terrifying new virus rips through a species and kills up to a third of the entire population__. And __we all now could be facing a new apocalypse__, though no one yet knows how potent the new strain of Mexican swine fever will be, or how many millions could die. Yet __if history teaches us anything it tells us that the greatest danger the human race faces is not some crackpot North Korean dictator but a six-gene virus that could wipe out one third of the global population. Our real enemy, a new plague virus, is so small you can barely see it even with an advanced electron microscope. It has no morality, no thought or no plan. All it wants to do is reproduce itself inside another human body. We are just another biological opportunity, a__ nice __warm place to feed and rep__licate. Viruses are as old as life itself. What is startling though is how vulnerable our globalised societies are to the threat of a new deadly plague. __Before W__orld __H__ealth __O__rganisation s__cientists could identify this new H1N1 virus it had travelled halfway across the world via international flights__.


 * Proliferation leads to extinction**


 * Utgoff, Deputy Director of Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division 02** of Institute for Defense Analysis (Victor A., Summer 2002, Survival, p.87-90 Victor A Utgoff, Deputy Director of Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division of Institute for Defense Analysis, Summer 2002, Survival, p.87-90)

In sum, widespread __proliferation is likely to lead to an occasional shoot-out with nuclear__ __weapons__, and that __such shoot outs will have a substantial probability of escalating to the maximum destruction possible__ with the weapons at hand. __Unless__ nuclear __proliferation is stopped, we are headed towards a world that will mirror the American__ Wild __West__ of the late 1800s. __With most, if not all, nations wearing nuclear “six shooters__” on their hips, the world may even be a more polite place than it is today, but every once in a while __we will all gather together on a hill to bury the bodies of dead cities or even whole nations.__


 * __Contention 3 is Regime Stability__**


 * After Hatoyama was forced to stepdown, new PM Kan’s leadership is in jeopardy with his recent announcement that he plans to keep the 2006 agreement with the U.S.**
 * Talmadge, ’10** (6/22/10, Eric, Associated Press, “US-Japan security pact turns 50, faces new strains,” http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5islkPj_84APsquFWNdqr2kuTwDQwD9GG68080)

But __while the alliance is one of the strongest Washington has anywhere in the world, it has come under intense pressure lately over a plan to make sweeping reforms that would pull back roughly 8,600 Marines from Okinawa__ to the U.S. Pacific territory of Guam. __The move was conceived in response to opposition on Okinawa to the large U.S. military presence there__ — more than half of the U.S. troops in Japan are on Okinawa, which was one of the bloodiest battlefields of World War II. __Though welcomed by many at first, the relocation plan has led to renewed Okinawan protests over the U.S. insistence it cannot be carried out unless a new base is built on Okinawa to replace one that has been set for closing for more than a decade.__ A widening rift between Washington and Tokyo over the future of the Futenma Marine Corps Air Station **__was a major factor in the resignation of Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama earlier this month.__** __It could well plague Kan as well.__ Kan has vowed to build a replacement facility on Okinawa, __as the U.S. demanded, but details are undecided.__ Implementing the agreement would need the support of the local governor, who has expressed opposition to it.


 * [ ] Recent Upper House elections prove that Japan’s government is weak – the DPJ was given a resounding defeat.**


 * Klingner 2010 -senior research fellow for Northeast Asia at the Heritage Foundation's Asian Studies Center** [Bruce, “More political stalemate for Japan” July 15, 2010, accessed July 17, http://www.heritage.org/Research/Commentary/2010/07/More-political-stalemate-for-Japan]

__A year ago, the Democratic Party of Japan's (DPJ) landslide victory in the Lower House election ushered in euphoric predictions of bold new policies and even a transformation of the Japanese political system__. There were widespread hopes that the DPJ would break the streak of Japan's revolving door of short-lived leaders. Instead, Prime Minister Yukio __Hatoyama's tenure has proved to be a slow motion train wreck and "Hatoyama leadership" has became an oxymoron. Indeed, the__ DPJ quickly showed itself to be no more competent in governing __Japan than its much-derided opponent,__ the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). After shedding its twin albatrosses of Hatoyama and DPJ general secretary Ichiro Ozawa, as well as many of its earlier campaign pledges, __the DPJ hoped for a respectable showing in the July 11 Upper House election. Instead, the__ electorate delivered a painful thrashing to the DPJ that may prove fatal for Prime Minister Naoto Kan __.__ The DPJ will now be even more focused on politics than policymaking __, leaving the Japanese ship of state rudderless and adrift in the troubled waters of East Asia__.

Yet despite Japan's severe problems, its political system has given its people a string of short-lived, ineffective leaders. **__In the last four years it has gone through four prime ministers in rapid succession,__** __with Mr. Kan now the nation's fifth leader since 2006.__ His immediate predecessor, Yukio __Hatoyama__, __lasted just eight months__. He was driven out by plunging approval ratings after breaking campaign promises and seeming to fritter away the Democrats' historic election mandate to shake up this stagnant nation. Stretch the timeframe back to 1990, the approximate beginning of Japan's stubborn economic funk, and the ailing Asian economic giant has seen 13 prime ministers come and go before Mr. Kan. Even Japanese political scientists feel hard-pressed to name them all. We are competing with Italy to create forgettable leaders, said Mayumi Itoh, the author of The Hatoyama Dynasty: Japanese Political Leadership Through the Generations, a book about Mr. Hatoyama and his Kennedy-like political family. **__Mr. Kan's ability to fare better than his predecessors will depend largely on how well he grasps the reasons that drove them from office,__** __say Ms. Itoh and other political experts. And while experts cite a host of factors - from outmoded political parties to the emergence of an ingrown leadership class - most agree that the underlying problem seems to be a growing gap in expectations between Japan's public and its political leaders. What__ voters want __, say political experts, is__ a leader who seems to understand their concerns, and who also seems to offer the vision and courage to point a way out. __But all Japan's unresponsive political system has seemed capable of producing is prime ministers who only worry about internal party politics, consensus-building and__ not stepping on the toes of the nation's many interest groups, experts say __.__ Japan has gone through 20 years of economic stagnation, and there is a lot of pain out there, so voters are much more impatient for dramatic reform than politicians realize, said Jeff Kingston, a professor of Japanese politics at Temple University in Tokyo. Voters feel a lot more urgency than their leaders do.
 * Kan needs to follow through on removing Futenma if he is to stay in office**
 * Fackler, 6/15** (6/15/10, Martin, The International Herald Tribune, “Japanese Leader’s Most Daunting Task? Staying in Office”, http://www.lexisnexis.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T9621965671&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T9621965678&cisb=22_T9621965677&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=8357&docNo=2)


 * The Impact is the Economy**


 * __Political instability causes a Greece-like meltdown in Japan__** **__– the brink is NOW__**
 * __Jakarta Post, ’10__** __(6/14/10, The Jakarta Post, “East Asia needs a strong Japan,” [])__

__Protracted uncertainties in Japanese politics have further undermined the country’s efforts to regain its status as a significant player in East Asia. As the region is being transformed by the rise of China and the arrival of India as two new major powers, Japan has struggled to prove its relevance in the regional strategic equation. It is true that__ Japan remains an important economic power in the region and beyond __. Yet, East Asia has now become a region shaped by countries with both economic and strategic significance. Even as an economic power, Japan is being challenged by China as the second largest economy in the world, and **the prospect for Japan to revitalize its economy remains uncertain.** In fact, Prime Minister Kan even warned that__ Japan could face a similar fate as Greece __if it did not resolve its mounting national debt, which has reached 218.6 percent of its gross domestic product in 2009. Aware of the danger, as a new leader, Prime Minister Kan has promised to restore Japan’s economic vitality and aimed for more than 2 percent of annual growth by 2020. The challenge for Japan in achieving that target is enormous. In addition to economic problems, **the dynamic of Japan’s internal politics often renders it difficult for any government to push for necessary reforms.** For example, it is not immediately clear how long Prime Minister Kan would survive. One cannot be sure whether the DPJ would be able to maintain its grip on power in the next election.__


 * Japan’s debt problem risks global economic collapse—need strong leadership for reform**
 * The Economist, 6/5** (6/5/10, “Leaderless Japan; Yukio Hatoyama Resigns”, http://www.lexisnexis.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T9621498533&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T9621498537&cisb=22_T9621498536&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=7955&docNo=3)

__It **used to be the envy of the world; now the hope is that things have got so bad that reform is finally possible SINCE 2006 Japan has had no fewer than five prime ministers.** Three of them lasted just a year. The feckless Yukio Hatoyama, who stepped down on June 2nd, managed a grand total of 259 days.__ Particularly dispiriting about Mr Hatoyama's sudden departure is that his election last August looked as if it marked the start of something new in Japanese politics after decades of rule by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). His government has turned out to be as incompetent, aimless and tainted by scandal as its predecessors. Much of the responsibility for the mess belongs with Mr Hatoyama. The man known as "the alien", who says the sight of a little bird last weekend gave him the idea to resign, has shown breathtaking lack of leadership. Although support for his Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has slumped in opinion polls and the government relied on minor parties, the most glaring liabilities have been over Mr Hatoyama's own murky financial affairs and his dithering about where to put an American military base. The question for the next prime minister, to be picked in a DPJ vote on June 4th, is whether Mr Hatoyama's failure means that Japan's nine-month experiment with two-party democracy has been a misconceived disaster. The answer is of interest not just within Japan. __Such is the recent merry-go-round of prime ministers that it is easy to assume that whoever runs the show makes no difference to the performance of the world's second-largest economy. Now__ Japan's prominence in Asia has so clearly been eclipsed by China __, its flimsy politicians are all the easier to dismiss. But that dangerously underestimates Japan's importance to the world and the troubles it faces. **With the largest amount of debt relative to the size of its economy among the rich countries, and a stubborn deflation problem to boot, Japan has an economic time-bomb ticking beneath it**. It may be able to service its debt comfortably for the time being, but the euro zone serves as a reminder that Japan needs strong leadership to stop the bomb from exploding.__


 * Japanese economy is key to the global economy and to check back Chinese nuclear conflict**

(“Defenseless Japan Awaits Typhoon,” pg online @ lexis //ag) Even so, __the west cannot afford to be complacent about what is happening in Japan, unless it intends to use the country as a test case to explore whether a full-scale depression is less painful now than it was 70 years ago.__ __Action is needed,__ and quickly because __this is an economy that could soak up some of the world's excess capacity if functioning properly__. **__A strong Japan is not only essential for the long-term health of the global economy, it is also needed as a counter-weight to the growing power of China.__** __A__ collapse in the Japanese economy, which looks ever more likely, __would__ have profound ramifications __; some experts believe it could even unleash a wave of extreme nationalism that would push the country into conflict with its bigger (and nuclear) neighbour.__
 * The Guardian, 2/11/02**


 * Economic decline causes a nuclear war**
 * Mead, ‘92**( Walter Russell, NPQ’S Board of advisors, New perspectives quarterly, summer 1992, page 30 )

Hundreds of millions - billions - of people have pinned their hopes on the international market economy. They and their leaders have embraced market principles -- and drawn closer to the west – because they believe that our system can work for them. But what if it can't? What if the global economy stagnates - or even shrinks? In that case, **__we will face a new period of international conflict__**: South against North, rich against poor. Russia, China, India - These countries with their billions of people and their nuclear weapons will pose a much greater danger to world order than Germany and Japan did in the 30s.