Caleb+Prost+and+Tahir+Shaikh

=1AC – AIIB v.2.0=

Plan Text
====Plan: The United States federal government should substantially increase its diplomatic and economic engagement with the People's Republic of China over the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank with the purpose of joining the bank.====

Advantage 1: China Rise
Scott Kennedy 15 —- Deputy Director of the Freeman Chair in China Studies and Director of the Project on Chinese Business and Political Economy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies(Scott; "What Went Wrong With U.S. Strategy on China's New Bank and What Should Washington Do Now?"; March 25^^th^^; https://www.chinafile.com/conversation/what-went-wrong-us-strategy-chinas-new-bank-and-what-should-washington-do-now)//pk In 2005, then United States Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick famously called on AND will be able to justly claim they are truly acting as responsible stakeholders.
 * ====AIIB is China's first signature contribution —- failure to engage it fuels perception of containment====**

U.S. has to play ball with the AIIB —- engagement on past institutions is no longer sufficient
In the meantime, China – a country whose say in the IMF is now AND world will have to come to terms with China's continued emergence and influence.
 * Soergel, 6/10/15** —- Economy Reporter at U.S. News (Andrew, "Amid U.S. Paralysis, China Cashing In; While Congress has failed to move forward with IMF reforms, Beijing is poised to boost its banking power," http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/06/10/asian-infrastructure-investment-bank-chinas-answer-to-western-marginalization, article downloaded on 6/7/16, JMP) ***Note —- Rajiv Biswas is Asia-Pacific chief economist at IHS Global Insight, an economic analysis firm

====Engaging on the AIIB is critical —- it's the focal point for China's expanded international role and cooperation will help resolve Myanmar conflict and spillover to cybersecurity and the South China Sea==== In 2011, U.S. president Barack Obama announced plans to "pivot AND . cooperation. Development lending could prove a minimally politically sensitive testing ground.
 * Noori, et. al, 15** —- Program Specialist, Middle East & North Africa Programs at United States Institute of Peace (8/24/15, Maral Noori, Daniel Jasper and Jason Tower, "Overcoming Barriers to U.S.-China Cooperation," http://www.usip.org/publications/2015/08/24/overcoming-barriers-us-china-cooperation, downloaded on 4/21/16, JMP)

South China Sea conflict goes nuclear.
Christensen 6/5/15 – Thomas J., Boswell professor of world politics and director of the China and the World Program at Princeton University, is a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, "China's Rising Military: Now for the Hard Part" http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-06-05/china-s-rising-military-now-for-the-hard-part One reason for this is that no consensus exists in East Asia on the territorial AND conditions in which a technologically superior foe attacks crucial targets with conventional weapons.

Expanding economic engagement key to maintain foundation for relations —- lowers risk of conflict
DR. DOLLAR: The leaders on the two sides, U.S. AND of the relationship. And then the risks of conflict become much greater.
 * Dollar, 15** —- Senior Fellow, John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings (9/30/15, David, "INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE AND CHINA'S RISE: HOW SHOULD THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN RESPOND?" http://www.brookings.edu//media/events/2015/09/30-international-economic-governance-chinas-rise/20150930_china_economic_governance_transcript.pdf, article downloaded 6/12/16, JMP)

Failure to recalibrate U.S. economic policy toward China risks miscalculation that triggers great power conflict
Nye suggests that the greatest threat to U.S. influence may not be AND world order." Here's to hoping that the United States heeds that judgment.
 * Wyne, 15** —- contributing analyst at Wikistrat and a global fellow at the Project for the Study of the 21st Century (6/1/15, Ali, "Is America's Mind-set the Greatest Threat to Its Future?" http://nationalinterest.org/feature/america%E2%80%99s-mind-set-the-greatest-threat-its-future-13004?page=show, article downloaded 5/3/16, JMP) ***Joseph Nye is a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School and one of the most esteemed analysts of world affairs

Ensuring peaceful rise is necessary to prevent World War 3 —- lack of engagement on AIIB has wrecked U.S. leadership
It is very worrying for the world that American policy makers should be capable of AND us hope the appropriate lessons are learned. Pax Americana is still needed.
 * Lehmann, 15** —- Emeritus Professor at IMD, Lausanne (Switzerland), currently Visiting Professor at Hong Kong University and at NIIT University in Neemrana, Rajasthan (India) (4/2/15, Jean-Pierre Lehmann, "China And The US: The AIIB Fiasco &amp; America's Colossal Loss Of Face," http://www.forbes.com/sites/jplehmann/2015/04/02/china-and-the-us-the-aiib-fiasco-americas-colossal-loss-of-face/print/, article downloaded 6/14/16, JMP)

Independently, the plan gives the U.S. critical influence to address a number of nuclear threats and propel cooperation to a new level
The founder of modern Singapore, Lee Kwan Yew, who passed away recently, AND the World Bank and others to work out how to play with it.
 * Chakravorti, 15** —- Senior Associate Dean of International Business & Finance at The Fletcher School at Tufts University and founding Executive Director of Fletcher's Institute for Business in the Global Context (4/20/15, Bhaskar, "China's New Development Bank Is a Wake-Up Call for Washington," https://hbr.org/2015/04/chinas-new-development-bank-is-a-wake-up-call-for-washington, article downloaded on 6/18/16, JMP)

Advantage 2: Climate Change
====The choices made in Asian infrastructure development now will determine the future of global warming – expanding renewable energy markets and building sustainable and climate resilient infrastructure through the AIIB are key to keep warming below 2 degrees==== The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (the AIIB or the Bank) is poised AND with major long-term commercial benefits for many members of the AIIB.
 * Nassiry and Nakhooda 16** – Darius Nassiry, head of the international cooperation department at the Global Green Growth Institute, investment manager with the Norwegian Investment Fund for Developing Countries (Norfund) Center for Global Development, Smita Nakhooda, international finance to support developing countries to respond to climate change, "The AIIB and the investment in action," 4/13/2016, https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/resource-documents/the_aiib_and_investment_in_action_final_20160413.pdf//TK

And the aff causes a global alt energy movement – spills over and creates a global model that solves climate change
//Can China's Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) fix climate change? Yes.// //AND// //to climate change replicable elsewhere. Deals like this don't occur every day.//
 * Taggart 15** - principal of Sydney, Australia-based Grenatec, a non-profit research organization studying the viability of a Pan-Asian Energy Infrastructure (Stewart Taggart, 3/31/2015, "Can China's Infrastructure Bank Solve Climate Change?," http://grenatec.com/can-chinas-infrastructure-bank-solve-climate-change)//TK//

//**====And AIIB success will kickstart global finance and lending institutions to increase sustainable development====**// //**Elgin-Cossart and Hart '15** - Senior Fellow and Director of China Policy at American Progress. She focuses on U.S. foreign policy toward China and works to identify new opportunities for bilateral cooperation, particularly on energy, climate change, and cross-border investment - Senior Fellow at American Progress, where she works on issues involving foreign policy, international development, and global conflict (Center for American Progress, "China's New International Financing Institutions Challenges and Opportunities for Sustainable Investment Standards," September 2015, https://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/21140703/RaceToTheTop-brief.pdf)// JB­­­ In recent years, China has moved into development finance in a very big way AND banks, and in the process, create a race to the top.

Now is key to prevent 2 degrees increase
The news is in: humans are totally failing in the global effort to stop AND goal will require dedication, international cooperation and a lot of hard work.
 * Harvey '14 ­- Chelsea Harvey is a science reporter for Business Insider. She is based in New York City (Chelsea Harvey, science reporter, "Here's How Little Time We Have Until Global Warming Is Out Of Control," September 2014, http://www.businessinsider.com/when-will-climate-change-be-out-of-control-2014-9 )// JB**

Consensus of global scientists agree – warming is real, anthropogenic and happening now
Human-caused climate change is happening and is accelerating; dangerous impacts are becoming AND to inform Americans about the scientific consensus regarding the realities of climate change.
 * Maibach et al '14** Distinguished Professor of Communication at George Mason University and Director of the Center for Climate Change Communication at GMU. (Edward Maibach, Teresa Myers, Anthony Leiserowitz, "Climate Scientists need to set the Record Straight: There is a scientific consensus that human caused climate change is happening," 5/7/14, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full)//NH

Climate change will be catastrophic and result in human extinction
In the Online Journal of Space Communication, Dr. Feng Hsu, a NASA AND our Sun" (Hsu 2010) (Fig. 2.1).
 * Flournoy Ph.D. 12** – Professor at the University of Ohio, Ph.D. and M.A. from the Univeristy of Texas, Postgraduate Associateship at the University of London, B.A. from Southern Methodist University, Editor of the Online Journal of Space Communications. Citing Dr. Feng Hsu, Senior Engineer and Manager at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (Don M., Ph.D., SpringerBriefs in Space Development, "Solar Power Satellites," 2012, Springer)//JSL

Loopholes and loose regulations in the AIIB now could cause backsliding – only U.S. involvement can correct course and ensure environmentally friendly regulations
Unfortunately, the AIIB's draft environmental and social framework, released last week, does AND as well as the comparative advantage of each institution in undertaking specific projects.
 * Elgin-Cossart and Hart '15** - Senior Fellow and Director of China Policy at American Progress. She focuses on U.S. foreign policy toward China and works to identify new opportunities for bilateral cooperation, particularly on energy, climate change, and cross-border investment - Senior Fellow at American Progress, where she works on issues involving foreign policy, international development, and global conflict (Center for American Progress, "China's New International Financing Institutions Challenges and Opportunities for Sustainable Investment Standards," September 2015, https://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/21140703/RaceToTheTop-brief.pdf)// VM

The plan solves – leverages empirically successful US-Chinese cooperation to cut GHG emissions
Continuing to maintain that stance would be a mistake. The United States has an AND United States is well placed to play a constructive role in that endeavor.
 * Mauro '15**- senior fellow at Peterson Institute for International Economics (Paolo Mauro, Peterson Institute for International Economics, "Why America Should Join the AIIB," 6/12/15, https://piie.com/commentary/op-eds/why-america-should-join-aiib)//NH

U.S. should engage China to join the AIIB —- allows it to exert net more influence
A growing number of countries are joining the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank AND best, working quietly with China, to ensure that it actually does.
 * Knight, 15** —- Faculty Director of the SIS Honors Program and Assistant Professor at American University's School of International Service and expert on international political economy (4/3/15, Sarah Cleeland Knight, "The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank – Three Questions for Sarah Cleeland Knight," http://www.american.edu/sis/news/20150403-3Q-Cleeland-Knight-Asian-Infrastructure-Investment-Bank.cfm, article downloaded 5/11/16, JMP)

The plan will rebalance the relationship with China —- preventing a collision between the rising powers
LEE: And at the same time, you know, there is interesting AIIB AND does come back to leadership. MABRY: Mmm hmm. Excellent.
 * Lee & Fullilove, 5/17/16** —- *President, East Asia Institute (South Korea), AND **Executive Director, Lowy Institute for International Policy (Australia) (Michael, "Crisis in Global Governance: A Conversation with Richard N. Haass and the Council of Councils," http://www.cfr.org/global-governance/crisis-global-governance-conversation-richard-n-haass-council-councils/p37852, article downloaded 5/30/16, JMP)

U.S. involvement will allow AIIB to safeguard its independence from China, develop higher standards and transparency, reverse perception of containment and boost the credibility of its Asia rebalance
China's new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has been the source of considerable AND improve the AIIB as a member, instead of opposing the bank altogether.
 * Lazarus, 3/2/16** —- MA candidate at The Fletcher School, Tufts University (Leland, "Why the U.S. Should Embrace the AIIB; There are compelling reasons for the U.S. to join China's new development bank," http://thediplomat.com/2016/03/why-the-u-s-should-embrace-the-aiib/, article downloaded 4/24/16, JMP)

U.S. participation in the AIIB ensures that China exercises constructive global leadership —- SQ sends the signal of containment
China's decision to create a new development bank for Asia is proving a highly divisive AND world economy and capitalise on China's growing willingness to exercise constructive global leadership.
 * Bergsten, 15** —- director emeritus and senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (3/15/15, Fred, "US should work with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank; Washington should sign up and bless the desire of its friends to join, writes Fred Bergsten," https://next.ft.com/content/4937bbde-c9a8-11e4-a2d9-00144feab7de, article downloaded 5/2/16, JMP)


 * Neg Strats**


 * =Elections DA=**

Polls show Clinton will win the election now
When Donald Trump wrapped up the Republicans' presidential nomination, 2016 polling showed him gaining AND % unfavorable) and Hispanics (11% favorable/89% unfavorable).
 * Benen 6/15** (Steve, MSNBC. "Latest polls show Clinton getting stronger, Trump falling." http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/latest-polls-show-clinton-getting-stronger-trump-falling)

Engagement with China causes an electoral backlash – ensures the plan gets spun negatively
In recent times China has become one of the most contentious issues regarding American foreign AND create some roadblocks for the rethink of US military bases in the Pacific.
 * Golan 15** (Shahar, University of Washington, The Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies, "Building a Pragmatic Coalition in American Politics", https://digital.lib.washington.edu/researchworks/bitstream/handle/1773/33275/Task%20Force%20E%202015.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y)

The political scientist V.O. Key once wrote that "latent" public AND no such luxury. Future public opinion is the least of their worries.
 * ====GOP candidates will rhetorically weaponize the plan====**
 * Harris 16** (Peter, Prof of political science @ Colorado State U, "President Obama's Partisan Foreign Policy," Jan 26, nationalinterest.org/feature/president-obamas-partisan-foreign-policy-15019?page=2)

Trump victory risks extinction via climate change and global war
Trump would deliver fatal blow to fight against climate change A Donald Trump presidency would AND . The stakes riding on a US presidential election have never been higher.
 * Nisbet 16** (Matthew, Associate Professor of Communication Studies and Affiliate Associate Professor of Public Policy and Urban Affairs at Northeastern University who studies the role of communication, media, and public opinion in debates over science, technology, and the environment, New Scientist, "Trump would deliver fatal blow to fight against climate change," 5/27/16 http://www.northeastern.edu/camd/commstudies/people/matthew-nisbet/#sthash.Zoq2zrjr.dpuf)


 * =1NC —- Rising Expectations=**

The engagement coalition is collapsing – Sino-US relations are dominated by competition, not cooperation
While Washington and Beijing cooperate where they can, there has also been steadily rising AND not challenge the American-dominant security architecture and order in East Asia.
 * Shambaugh 15 **– professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University (David, "In a Fundamental Shift, China and the US are Now Engaged in an All-Out Competition," South China Morning Post, June 11^^th^^, 2015, http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1819980/fundamental-shift-china-and-us-are-now-engaged-all-out) // EDP

Unconditional engagement means China pockets the plan but generates rising expectations of future concessions. This makes relations crises and war inevitable
Erikson, 14 - ANDREW S. ERICKSON is an Associate Professor at the U.S. Naval War College and an Associate-in-Research at Harvard University's Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies. ADAM P. LIFF is Assistant Professor of East Asian International Relations at Indiana University's School of Global and International Studies, Postdoctoral Fellow in the Princeton-Harvard China and the World Program, and Associate-in-Research at Harvard's Fairbank Center and Reischauer Institute of Japanese Studies ("Not-So-Empty Talk: The Danger of China's "New Type of Great-Power Relations" Slogan" 10/9, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2014-10-09/not-so-empty-talk In uncritically signing on to the "new type of great-power relations" AND of the other, worsening the consequences when those expectations are ultimately dashed.

Hostile rise is inevitable – offensive realism is the dominant Chinese IR paradigm and Xi embraced the prospect of an inevitable confrontation with the US
Topping 15-Military and Strategic Studies Scholar (Vincent, "Tracing a Line in the Water: China's Anti-Access/Area-Denial Strategy in the Asia Pacific Region and its Implications for the United States", August 2015, University of Calgary, http://theses.ucalgary.ca/bitstream/11023/2602/4/ucalgary_2015_topping_vincent.pdf)//SL For decades, China has kept the same discourse: it is seeking peaceful development AND ) to do so is mostly the exception, not the rule.47

Competitive Sino-US relations ensure stability by maintaining low expectations. Moving towards cooperation collapses the relationship and risks extinction
Yan, 10 - Professor and Dean of Institute of Modern International Relations, Tsinghua University (Xuetong, "The Instability of China–US Relations" The Chinese Journal of International Politics, Vol. 3, 2010, 263–292 doi:10.1093/cjip/poq009 Clarifying their political relationship as AND peoples of the world would benefit from the two countries' preventative security cooperation.


 * =1NC —- HR Conditions CP=**

Unconditional engagement triggers human rights violations—-explicit conditions solve—-even if China doesn't say yes, pressure creates political space needed for dissident gains
Roth 11 - executive director at the Human Rights Watch, served as a federal prosecutor in New York and for the Iran-Contra investigation in Washington, DC, graduate of Yale Law School and Brown University, has conducted numerous human rights investigations and missions around the world, has written extensively on a wide range of human rights abuses, devoting special attention to issues of international justice, counterterrorism, the foreign policies of the major powers, and the work of the United Nations (Kenneth, "World Report 2011: A Facade of Action," http://www.hrw.org/world-report-2011/world-report-2011-facade-action)//BB There is often a degree of rationality in a government's decision to violate human rights AND much like acquiescence and acceptance, domestic advocates sense indifference rather than solidarity.

Chinese respect for human rights is modeled globally—-solves extinction
The decision to de-link human rights and trade, made early in the AND . human rights mechanisms and the resolution of international crises stemming from injustice.
 * Schulz 9** - Senior Fellow in human rights policy at the Center for American Progress, served as Executive Director of Amnesty International USA from 1994 to 2006 (William F., January 2009, Strategic Persistence: How the United States Can Help Improve Human Rights in China, Center for American Progress, https://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/issues/2009/01/pdf/china_human_rights.pdf)//BB


 * =1NC —- T (QPQ)=**

Diplomatic and economic engagement is the offer of positive inducements in exchange for specific concessions
Hall, 14 - Senior Fellow in International Relations, Australian National University (Ian, The Engagement of India: Strategies and Responses, p. 3-4) This book explores the various modes of engagement employed in the Indian case, their AND forums and research networks, aid and development assistance, and so on.

Violation – the plan is an unconditional offer – it happens regardless of whether China changes its behavior
====Voting issue – to protect limits and ground. The number of solvency advocates defending a QPQ is narrow, and an affirmative that can't defend a QPQ would lose to an unconditional counterplan. We create a functional limit on the topic – the alternative is "resolved: China" which is not debatable====


 * =Japan DA=**

China is pushing the US-Japan alliance to the breaking point, how we react now is key

 * Tatsumi 2016** - Senior Associate of the East Asia Program at the Stimson Center

Yuki, "China: Pushing the Envelope in the East China Sea?," Jun 10, thediplomat.com/2016/06/china-pushing-the-envelope-in-the-east-china-sea/ There is no question that China is testing the resolve of Japan and the United AND Japan alliance, which both sides have spent the last several years strengthening.

U.S. and Japan are in lock step now over the AIIB and Abe's reforms are currently designed to strengthen the U.S.-Japan alliance —- mutual distrust runs deep between China and Japan
China and Japan More than four decades after the normalization of Sino-Japanese AND to China is very different, and tilted in much more adversarial directions.
 * Pollack, 16** (Jonathon D, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, John L. Thornton China Center, Center for East Asia Policy Studies, "Changes and prospects for the structure of regional stability in East Asia: A U.S. perspective," Jan 25, http://www.brookings.edu/research/presentations/2016/01/25-regional-stability-east-asia-pollack, CMR+JMP)

A weak alliance causes Japan to seek nuclear weapons and trigger an arms race

 * Hunt 2015** - postdoctoral Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the nonprofit, nonpartisan Rand Corp

Jonathan, "Out of the Mushroom Cloud's Shadow," Aug 5, foreignpolicy.com/2015/08/05/japans-nuclear-obsession-hiroshima-nagasaki/ The U.S. explosions that devastated Hiroshima and, three days later, AND
 * significance of the nuclear pacts struck decades ago will become ever more consequential.**


 * ====That escalates quickly into a global war====**
 * Tan 2015** - Associate Professor At the University of New South Wales

Andrew T.H., Security and Conflict in East Asia, p. 31 East Asia's arms race leads to the classic problem of the security dilemma, in AND , namely China, North Korea and the USA, possess nuclear weapons.