Aaron+&+Josh

=__Affirmativo__= toc

** We control uniqueness of magnesium prices– the aff’s gradual approach of supplying magnesium is key to maintain a stable price and supply and the auto industry’s adoption **
(“Market Model Simulation: The Impact of Increased Automotive Interest in Magnesium,” August 2002 JOM, http://msl.mit.edu/publications/MktModelSimMg-UrbanceFRF-REK-RR-JPC.pdf)//ac __In the 1970s, when the Western world experienced oil shortages that greatly increased the__ __AND__ 2015 (from ~5 kg today) were shown as likely results.
 * Urbance et al 2 ** – Randall J. Urbance, Frank Field, Randy Kirchain, Richard Roth, and Joel P. Clark are with the Material Systems Laboratory at Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

**The plan resolves price volatility – extracting minerals from the ocean creates a sustainable supply chain for magnesium**
**Fattah et al 13** – Fattah received his Ph.D degree in civil engineering (Environmental Discipline); Sina Shabani earned his B.Sc degree in civil engineering, American University of Sharjah, UAE. 2011.; Ahmed earned his M.Tech degree in civil engineering (Geotechnical) (Kazi P. Fattah, Sina Shabani, and Aqeel Ahmed, “Use of Desalinated Reject Water as a Source of Magnesium for Phosphorus Recovery,” International Journal of Chemical Engineering and Applications, Vol. 4, No. 3, June 2013, http://www.ijcea.org/papers/286-I30007.pdf)//ac __Phosphorus and nitrogen are considered as nutrients which are needed for living organisms to metabolize__ __AND__ water of other desalination methods can be analyzed under the same experimental conditions.

** Magnesium usage is key to lightweight cars – it causes a “down-sizing spiral” that significantly increases fuel-efficiency **
**Waldraff 11** – Dr. Andreas Waldraff has Ph.D. (Systems Dynamics of Supply Chains), Universität Stuttgart Honorary Professorship for Management, Universität Stuttgart; CEO of UBF.B Management Consultancy, a service company with a focus on automotive industry and Indo-German business (Andreas, “Magnesium gives better mileage,” German Global Trade, 6/3/11, http://www.germanglobaltrade.de/downloads/green-cities-waldraff-better-mileage-2011-06-3.pdf)//ac Volkswagen’s beetle, produced more than 21 million times from 1938 until 2003, already AND and clearly offering better mileage on a large scale if made of magnesium.

**Auto industry and overall economy collapse coming now**
**White 7/1/14** – Staff Reporter for WSJ (Joseph, “Is U.S. Auto Sales Rebound Fading?,” Wall Street Journal, 7/1/14, http://online.wsj.com/articles/forecasters-say-u-s-auto-sales-rebound-ripe-for-swoon-1404187295)//ac __Car and truck sales in the U.S. surged in the years after__ __AND__ __the next [downturn] comes they are sitting with too much capacity."__

**First, fuel-efficiency is key to the auto industry – creates jobs and increases sales**
**Weiss and Weidman 12** – Daniel J. Weiss is a Senior Fellow and Director of Climate Strategy and Jackie Weidman is a Special Assistant with the Energy Team at the Center for American Progress. (“5 Ways the Obama Administration Revived the Auto Industry by Reducing Oil Use,” Center for American Progress, August 27, 2012, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2012/08/27/34054/5-ways-the-obama-administration-revived-the-auto-industry-by-reducing-oil-use/)//ac The Obama administration today promulgated fuel-economy and carbon-pollution limits for 2017 AND __, we must continue government support for fuel efficiency and for innovative vehicles.__

**Second is innovation – fuel efficiency creates new engineering opportunities**
**NRDC 12** – Natural Resource Defense Council (“How Fuel Efficiency is Driving Job Growth in the U.S. Auto Industry,” Driving Growth, October 2012, http://drivinggrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/How_Fuel_is_Driving_Growth_October_revise.pdf)//ac __Fuel-Efficiency Standards Provide Investment Certainty Setting strong fuel efficiency standards has given manufacturers__ __AND__ and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration in Detroit, January 17, 2012

**The auto industry must innovate or die – Detroit and GM prove**
**Cai 13** – Contributor to Business Spectator (Peter, “The decline and fall of a motoring empire,” Business Spectator, 12/23/13, http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/12/23/automotive/decline-and-fall-motoring-empire)//ac __General Motors__, the parent of the iconic Holden, __was once upon a time__ __AND__ __generous wages and conditions must be matched with a corresponding increase in productivity.__

**Auto industry collapse would devastate the economy and manufacturing sector – causes ripple effects through other industries**
**Harrison 9** – Staff Reporter for CNN Money (Sheena, “The auto collapse's ripple effects,” CNN Money, January 26, 2009, http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/23/smallbusiness/detroits_small_suppliers.smb/index.htm?postversion=2009012612)//ac DETROIT (CNNMoney.com) -- __As Detroit's Big Three automakers fight for survival__ __AND__ guys are being treated the way they've treated their suppliers," Mullen said.



**Collapse causes global nuclear war**
With the global financial system in serious trouble, is America's geostrategic dominance likely to AND disastrous effects of disengagement and the stiff price tag of continued American leadership.
 * Freidberg & Schonfeld, 8 ** --- *Professor of Politics and IR at Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson School, AND **senior editor of Commentary and a visiting scholar at the Witherspoon Institute in Princeton (10/21/2008, Aaron and Gabriel, “The Dangers of a Diminished America”, Wall Street Journal, [])

**Population growth, per capita demand, and climate change make water crises inevitable**
(Jane Kucera - chemical engineer with over 31 years’ experience in the area of membrane technology. M.S. in Chemical Engineering. As a research engineer, where she spent 7 years developing novel membrane materials and process designs, including serving as lead researcher for several NASA research contracts to develop membrane-based water-recovery and reuse systems for the International Space Station. She is currently a Senior Technical Consultant in the Engineering and Project Development Group at Nalco/an Ecolab Company where she is responsible for developing industrial desalination treatment equipment and system designs. “Introduction to Desalination” in “Desalination: Water from Water” WileyOnline, ISBN 9781118904855) While population growth and per capita increase in demand are two major water stressors, AND will be in regions under the threat of signifi cant drought [7].
 * Kucera 2014 **

**First, desalination allows countries to resolve conflicts among themselves**
**Wilder et al 12** – M. Wilder - University of Arizona, I. Aguilar Barajas - Tecnológico de Monterrey (ITESM), J. McEvoy - University of Arizona, R. Varady - University of Arizona, S. Megdal - University of Arizona, N. Pineda - El Colegio de Sonora, and C. Scott – University of Arizona (“Desalination Technology in a Binational Context: Systemic Implications for Water, Society, Energy, and Environment in the Arizona-Sonora portion of the U.S.-Mexico Border,” 2012 Puentes Consortium Paper, http://aquasec.org/wrpg/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Wilder-etal-2012-Desalination-US-Mex-border-Puentes.pdf)//ac Geopolitical Considerations In __addition to economic, social, and environmental dimensions of desalination,__ __AND__ (Varady, et al. 2010; Wilder et al., 2010).

**Second, the plan spurs US global water leadership – harnesses diplomatic leverage at key subnational actors**
(Marcus DuBois King, October 15,2013, “Water, U.S. Foreign Policy and American Leadership”, http://elliott.gwu.edu/sites/elliott.gwu.edu/files/downloads/faculty/king-water-policy-leadership.pdf) The USG has the opportunity to prioritize, develop and implement stronger water management policies AND S. water assistance could help national governments stabilize and regain their legitimacy.
 * King 13 **, John O. Rankin Associate Professor of International Affairs; Director, Master of Arts Program in International Affairs at George Washington University

**That’s key to diplomatic leveraging in a number of hotspots**
(Marcus DuBois King, October 15,2013, “Water, U.S. Foreign Policy and American Leadership”, http://elliott.gwu.edu/sites/elliott.gwu.edu/files/downloads/faculty/king-water-policy-leadership.pdf) Second, traditional diplomacy is … And Tigris-Euphrates river basins.
 * King 13 **, John O. Rankin Associate Professor of International Affairs; Director, Master of Arts Program in International Affairs at George Washington University

**Water wars risk instability, terrorism, and inhibit cooperation with America – multiple hotspots for escalation globally**
**Goldenberg 14** – US environment correspondent (Suzanne, “Why global water shortages pose threat of terror and war,” The Guardian, 2/8/14, http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/feb/09/global-water-shortages-threat-terror-war)//ac On 17 January, scientists downloaded fresh data from a pair of __Nasa__ satellites and AND , thus threatening water insecurity for farms, other industry and the public.

** Water shortages trigger conflict – countries refuse to cooperate **
**Brinkley 13** – Hearst professional in residence at Stanford University and a Pulitzer Prize-winning former correspondent for the New York Times. (Joel, “Avert water wars - build desalination plants,” SF Gate, November 22, 2013, http://www.sfgate.com/opinion/brinkley/article/Avert-water-wars-build-desalination-plants-5002898.php)//ac Get ready for the water wars__.__ And __…millions of the world's people.__

**South Asia war is most likely and outweighs – drags in US, Russia, and China – deterrence doesn’t check**
**Perkovich 13** – PhD, University of Virginia MA, Harvard University BA, University of California at Santa Cruz, president for studies and director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. His research focuses on nuclear strategy and nonproliferation, with a concentration on South Asia, Iran, and the problem of justice in the international political economy (George, “Preventing Nuclear War in South Asia: Unprecedented Challenges, Unprecedented Solutions,” Carnegie Endowment, November 8, 2013, http://carnegieendowment.org/2013/11/08/preventing-nuclear-war-in-south-asia-unprecedented-challenges-unprecedented-solutions/gt13#)//ac I became acquainted with Secretary McNamara in the mid- 1990s … And another lecture, for another evening, with another speaker.

**That’s key to infinite water – desalination is just becoming competitive but federal funding key to resolve market uncertainty**
**NRC 2008** (National Research Council - Committee on Advancing Desalination Technology Water Science and Technology Board Division on Earth and Life Studies. AMY K. ZANDER, Chair, Clarkson University, Potsdam, New York MENACHEM ELIMELECH, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut DAVID H. FURUKAWA, Separation Consultants Inc., Poway, California PETER GLEICK, Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security, Oakland, California KENNETH HERD, Southwest Florida Water Management District, Brooksville, Florida KIMBERLY L. JONES, Howard University, Washington, DC PHILIP ROLCHIGO, Pentair, Inc., Golden Valley, Minnesota SANDEEP SETHI, Carollo Engineers, Sarasota, Florida JOHN TONNER, Water Consultants International, Mequon, Wisconsin HENRY J. VAUX, University of California, Berkeley JUDITH S. WEIS, Rutgers University, Newark, New Jersey, WARREN W. WOOD, Michigan State University, East Lansing. “Desalination: A National Perspective” []) Efforts to identify new, untapped sources of supply have dominated water policy for the AND  by state and local governments, nongovernmental organizations, and the private sector.

**Only the plan provides sufficient certainty**
**NRC 2008** (National Research Council - Committee on Advancing Desalination Technology Water Science and Technology Board Division on Earth and Life Studies. AMY K. ZANDER, Chair, Clarkson University, Potsdam, New York MENACHEM ELIMELECH, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut DAVID H. FURUKAWA, Separation Consultants Inc., Poway, California PETER GLEICK, Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security, Oakland, California KENNETH HERD, Southwest Florida Water Management District, Brooksville, Florida KIMBERLY L. JONES, Howard University, Washington, DC PHILIP ROLCHIGO, Pentair, Inc., Golden Valley, Minnesota SANDEEP SETHI, Carollo Engineers, Sarasota, Florida JOHN TONNER, Water Consultants International, Mequon, Wisconsin HENRY J. VAUX, University of California, Berkeley JUDITH S. WEIS, Rutgers University, Newark, New Jersey, WARREN W. WOOD, Michigan State University, East Lansing. “Desalination: A National Perspective” []) Public health protection and reliability are high priorities for public water supply facilities ; therefore AND  an assessment of environmental impacts or to provide better estimates of treatment costs.

**Nuclear energy is key – they are safe and necessary for sufficient solvency**
(American Nuclear Society March 2005, The American Nuclear Society (ANS) is an international, not-for-profit 501(c)(3) scientific and educational organization with a membership of approximately 15,000 scientists, engineers, educators, students, and other associate members. Approximately 900 members live outside the United States in 45 countries. There are 51 U.S. and nine non-U.S. local sections, 24 nuclear plant branches and 34 student sections. ANS members represent more than 1,750 corporations, educational institutions, and government agencies “Use of Nuclear Energy for Desalination”, ANS, http://www.ans.org/pi/ps/docs/ps62.pdf) The American Nuclear Society (ANS) endorses the use of nuclear power reactors AND delivering the copious quantities of energy required for large-scale desalination projects.
 * ANS 2005 **

**The plan is key to market dominance and global modelling – it’s safe and the tech spills over and is modelled globally**
**IAEA 7** – International Atomic Energy Agency (“Economics of Nuclear Desalination: New Developments and Site Specific Studies,” July 2007, http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/publications/PDF/te_1561_web.pdf) Seventy percent of the planet is covered with water, but only 2.5 AND the fossil fuelled based systems for the production of needed electricity and heat. =__Negativo__=