Enayat+Kapadia+&+Wesley+Chen

hrcp appeasment t2cp uncloscp ||
 * 1AC #1 || SCS ||
 * 1AC #2 || SED ||
 * Neg || elections

**The Hague case pushes SCS __tensions__ and __disputes__ to the __brink__ --- the s-quo encourages Chinese aggression**
Two days ago, the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) at The ........ the South China Sea may be choppy for years to come.
 * Rapp-Hooper and Cronin 7/14** --- Senior Fellow with the Asia-Pacific Security Program at CNAS. She is formerly a Fellow with the CSIS Asia Program and Director of the CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative. Her expertise includes Asia security issues, deterrence, nuclear strategy and policy, and alliance politics. She was previously a Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Cronin is a Ph.D. is the Senior Director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security. Previously, he was the Senior Director of the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) at the National Defense University, where he simultaneously oversaw the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs. Dr. Cronin has a rich and diverse background in both Asian-Pacific security and U.S. defense, foreign and development policy [Mira and Patrick, “CHOOSE YOUR OWN ADVENTURE: THE NEXT PRESIDENT’S VOYAGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA,” War on the Rocks, July 14th, 2016, http://warontherocks.com/2016/07/choose-your-own-adventure-the-next-presidents-voyage-in-the-south-china-sea/]//Mnush

** China’s **** lack of adherence **** to the Hague case causes **** increased aggression **** and makes **** conflict likely **
**Bush 16** --- Director, Center for East Asia Policy Studies, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, John L. Thornton China Center (Richard C. Bush, 7-13-2016, "The South China Sea ruling and China’s grand strategy" Brookings Institution, 7-17-2016, [|http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2016/07/13-south-china-sea-grand-strategy-bush)//jonah] The //I// nternational //T// ribunal on the //L// aw //o// f the //S// ea...........prosperity and depending on the United States for security.)

**Current __FONOPs__ don’t solve --- but __push__ SCS to the __brink of conflict__ --- diplomatic negotiations are key**
// The //showdown over the South......................// support the international community and //uphold the rule of law//. All options must be on the table.”
 * Thompson 7/12**/16 --- investigative reporter who won the 1985 Pulitzer Prize for public service journalism (Mark Thompson, 7-12-2016, "Showdown Now Looming Over the South China Sea" TIME, 7-20-2016, http://time.com/4402562/south-china-sea-hague-ruling/)//jonah//

** Recent ilaw court decision brings tensions in the SCS on the brink of global war – a second set of negotiations is the **** only chance **** at resolution **
Could an old map bring Asia to the brink of war?........................., books and records. For three decades our claims met no challenge or confrontation."
 * Hunt and Hume 7/13** --- [Katie and Tim, “Has South China Sea ruling set scene for next global conflict?” CNN, July 13th, 2016, http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/13/asia/south-china-sea-global-conflict-risks/]//Mnush

**SCS war goes** **nuclear** **– status quo military focus only makes it** **worse**
In the campaigns currently underway for the US ............................. missiles against pre-determined targets.
 * Symonds ’16** --- [Peter, “The danger of nuclear war between the US and China,” World Socialist Web Site, May 30th, 2016, https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2016/05/30/pers-m30.html]//Mnush

** Escalation can happen in **** weeks **
China could go to war with America.................// connected with specific events or countries”.
 * Adi-Tabatabi 7/11** --- [Sean, “China On Course For War With America Within Weeks,” Your News Wire, July 11th, 2016, http://yournewswire.com/china-on-course-for-war-with-america-within-weeks/]//Mnush//

** Escalates **** and **** spills over **** to other regions including the **** Arctic **
// China has accused the United States ......................... // escalating superpower friction// could draw them in.
 * Roberts and Phillips ’15** --- [Dan and Tom, “US ratchets up tension with China,” Mail Guardian, October 30th, 2015, http://mg.co.za/article/2015-10-30-us-ratchets-up-tension-with-china]//Mnush//

**China will backlash by expanding naval activity in the Arctic**
Tisdall 10/30 – assistant editor of the Guardian and a foreign affairs columnist Simon, US ratchets up tension with China, Mail & Guardian, []

//The presence of a United States warship...................// superpower friction could draw them in.

**Arctic war draws in great powers and goes nuclear**
Wallace and Staples 10 (Michael Wallace and Steven Staples. *Professor Emeritus at the University of British Columbia and President of the Rideau Institute in Ottawa “Ridding the Arctic of Nuclear Weapons: A Task Long Overdue,” []) The fact is, the Arctic is becoming a zone.................... the Arctic because of climate change.” 62

** Diplomacy is **** key **
// The //ruling is a....................engagement// on the issue.
 * Ivanov 16** --- CEO, Asia Society Australia (Phillipp Ivanov, 7-13-2016, "After the Ruling — What's Next in the South China Sea?" Asia Society, 7-16-2016, http://asiasociety.org/blog/asia/after-ruling-%E2%80%94-whats-next-south-china-sea)//jonah//

**The plan __defuses__ SCS tensions __without triggering their DAs__**
The Permanent Court of Arbitration................................ compel all the actors to behave wisely and peacefully.
 * Bader 7/13** --- senior fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. From 2009 until 2011, Bader was special assistant to the president of the United States for national security affairs at the National Security Council. In that capacity, he was the principal advisor to President Obama on Asia. Bader served from 2005 to 2009 as the director of the China Initiative and subsequently as the first director of the John L. Thornton China Center [Jeffrey A, “What the United States and China should do in the wake of the South China Sea ruling,” Brookings, July 13th, 2016, http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2016/07/13-us-policy-south-china-sea-ruling-bader]//Mnush

**China non-compliance risks undermining broader ILAW institutions **
// Will China accept................. of //international law can be preserved.//
 * Burke-White 7/12** --- [William, “Will China abide by the South China Sea decision?” CNN, July 12th, 2016, http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/12/opinions/south-china-sea-decision-burke-white/]//Mnush//

**The plan __aligns Chinese compliance__ with the Hague decision**
Option 3: “Roll Back” I will start by stating that........................... in the broader U.S.-China relationship
 * Liedman 16** --- CFR's Navy fellow and an expert in maritime strategy (Sean R. Liedman, 6-28-2016, "U.S. Strategy in the South China Sea" Journal Of Political Risk, Vol. 4, No. 5, 7-16-2016, http://www.jpolrisk.com/u-s-strategy-in-the-south-china-sea/)//jonah

**Non-compliance hurts credibility of ilaw**
With the final award in the 2013 ....................... international dispute settlement to global peace and security.
 * Davenport 7/8** --- Doctoral Candidate at Yale Law School [Tara, “Why the South China Sea Arbitration Case Matters (Even if China Ignores It),” The Diplomat, July 8th, 2016 (BIRTHDAY), http://thediplomat.com/2016/07/why-the-south-china-sea-arbitration-case-matters-even-if-china-ignores-it/]//Mnush

**Effective international law facilitates global coordination over __transnational threats__ --- solves multiple existential threats**
We face imminent financial ....................which administrative law principles are required).
 * Shafer ’12** --- Melvin C. Steen professor of Law and Affiliated Professor in the Department of Political Science, University of Minnesota [Gregory, “International Law and Global Public Goods in a Legal Pluralist World,” Eur J Int Law (2012) 23 (3): 669-693, http://ejil.oxfordjournals.org/content/23/3/669.full]//Mnush

**Solves __nuclear conflict__**
All states in the contemporary................... give up a portion of their sovereignty.
 * Pickering ’14** --- MA international relations, Melbourne School of Government [Heath, “Why Do States Mostly Obey International Law?”[]x]//Mnush

**Current international law standards can’t enforce anything –pressure is key**
The Award as a Focal Point for........................... with final and binding legal authority.
 * Davenport 7/8** --- Doctoral Candidate at Yale Law School [Tara, “Why the South China Sea Arbitration Case Matters (Even if China Ignores It),” The Diplomat, July 8th, 2016 (BIRTHDAY), http://thediplomat.com/2016/07/why-the-south-china-sea-arbitration-case-matters-even-if-china-ignores-it/]//Mnush

**Independently --- realigning __Freedom of Navigation Operations__ to be __consistent__ with I-Law is __key to UNCLOS compliance__**
In the face of Beijing’s constant overreaching,....................... claim to have achieved their essential goals.
 * Bosco ’16** --- senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He served as China country desk officer in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and taught a graduate seminar on US-China-Taiwan relations at Georgetown's School of Foreign Service [Joseph A, “U.S. Ambiguity Strengthens Beijing in the South China Sea,” The National Interest, February 6th, 2016, http://nationalinterest.org/feature/us-ambiguity-strengthens-beijing-the-south-china-sea-15131]//Mnush

**Current policy that undermines UNCLOS hurts the US international drug control strategy**
Petitioner's brief ignores................... countries failed to satisfy their own obligations.
 * Taft et al 13** --- U.S. Department of State Legal Adviser, 2001-2005, joined by five other former USDOS Legal Advisers [William H, “Brief of Former State Department Legal Advisers as //Amici Curiae// in Support of Respondent, Carol Anne Bond v. United States of America,” http://www.americanbar.org/content/dam/aba/publications/supreme_court_preview/briefs-v2/12-158_resp_amcu_fsdl.authcheckdam.pdf]//Mnush

**Credibility on drug control solves Afghanistan counter-narcotics**
Chairman Ros-Lehtinen, Ranking Member Deutch, ................... the interagency and our partners here on the Hill, will be necessary.
 * Brownfield ’14** --- Assistant Secretary, International Narcotics & Law Enforcement Affairs Department of State [William R, “Counternarcotics Operations in Afghanistan,” CQ Congressional Testimony, p. lexis]//Mnush

**Nuclear war**
Cronin ’13 --- professor of public policy @ George Mason University [ Audrey Kurth, “Thinking Long on Afghanistan: Could it be Neutralized?” Center for Strategic and International Studies The Washington Quarterly • 36:1 pp. 55_72 @http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2013.751650]//Mnush// // With ISAF withdrawal inevitable, a // sea change // is already underway : the question is whether the // U// nited // S// tates will be // ahead of the curve // or // behind it. // Under current circumstances, key actions within Afghanistan by any one state are per................. but // nuclear war.//

1AC---Plan
====Thus the plan --- the United States federal government should substantially increase its diplomatic engagement with the People’s Republic of China over substantially decreasing United States Freedom of Navigation Operations that are inconsistent with international law, on the condition that the People’s Republic of China abide by the International Court of Justice’s Permanent Court of Arbitration’s decision in The Republic of the Philippines v. the People’s Republic of China.====

**__Diplomatic action__ is key --- current military involvement __solves__ their DAs but a __reliance__ on __continued__ military engagement causes __escalation__**
A long brewing crisis.................... //China, pragmatism overcomes ambition//.
 * Kalman 16** --- management professional in the marine transportation industry, an officer in the US Navy for eleven years, (Brian Kalman, 12-1-2016, "The South China Sea Crisis: International Law, Sovereignty and the Control of Natural Resources" No Publication, 7-16-2016, [|https://southfront.org/the-south-china-sea-crisis-international-law-sovereignty-and-the-control-of-natural-resources/)//jonah]

** Requiring FONOPs to be **** consistent **** with international law causes China to **** say yes **** --- shows a signal of **** international law compliance **
**Campbell 16** --- Chairman, Center for a New American Security, Former Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs (Kurt, 7-13-16, “Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Testimony,” East Asia Subcommittee, 7-17-16, [|http://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/071316_Campbell_Testimony.pdf)//jonah] Senator Gardner, Senator Cardin, it is an ................................ South China Sea and reinforce the international order in Asia.

**Current FONOPs that are inconsistent with I-Law make __broader FONOPs unsustainable__ and __fails__ --- the plan only __compliments__ this strategy to make it effective**
// Like the two other recent U.S. freedom of ..................... //FONOPs are not going to be enough//
 * Ku 16** --- Professor of Law, Hofstra University (Julian G. Ku, 5-16-2016, "Freedom of Navigation Operations in the South China Sea Aren’t Enough" Foreign Policy, 7-16-2016, http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/05/16/freedom-of-navigation-operations-in-the-south-china-sea-arent-enough-unclos-fonop-philippines-tribunal/)//jonah//

**The case __alone__ is woefully insufficient --- only __diplomatic engagement__ facilitates compliance with __broader international law__**
**GT 7-15**-16 --- (Global Times, 7-15-2016, "Diplomacy, not courthouse, key to resolving South China Sea dispute: European Parliament member" Global Times, 7-17-2016, http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/994592.shtml)//jonah// Diplomacy//, //instead of courthouse// , is the //right.....................// and objective policies," Scholz concluded.


 * 1AC __---S&ED**

**Strategic mistrust is fueling multiple flashpoints within the region – high level talks are necessary to avoid they escalate**
Zhao 2015 - Professor and Director of the Center for China–US Cooperation at Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver

Suisheng, "A New Model of Big Power Relations? China–US strategic rivalry and balance of power in the Asia–Pacific," Journal of Contemporary China Volume 24, Issue 93, 2015, p 377-397

The Asia–Pacific region has become a...................... flashpoints in the twenty-first century.

**Containment drives China to fracture US alliances and risks nuclear war – only cooperation can solve**
Ilamn 2016 - Currently works in Pacivis (Global Civil Society Research Center) of U of Indonesia Zidy, "Is the South China Sea the Stage for the Next World War?," Jul 3, nationalinterest.org/feature/the-south-china-sea-the-stage-the-next-world-war-16833?page=show

What is happening today is that .................reverse the negative trend, she surely has much to do.

**Now is a unique moment – China is likely to use force post the Hague ruling in fishing disputes**
Johnson 2016 - senior reporter covering energy for Foreign Policy Keith, "Can Indonesia Afford a Fish War with China?," Jul 8, foreignpolicy.com/2016/07/08/can-indonesia-afford-a-fish-war-with-china/

In recent years, Indonesia has tried to....................... they have the capability and the political willing ness to push back ,” Medeiros said, “ that affects China’s strategic calculation .”

**This //Maritime Militia// will spark a war that escalates**
Chao 2016 - international relations doctoral student (Mellon Ethnopolitics Fellow) in Political Science @ UPenn Brian C, "Coast Guards Could Accidentally Spark War in the South China S," Jun 28, nationalinterest.org/feature/coast-guards-could-accidentally-spark-war-the-south-china-16766?page=show

Chinese activities __ in __ the C hina S eas over the ............................. in the South China Sea, regardless of whether the hulls are battleship grey or coast-guard white.

**Only having open channels of communication can prevent this version of the Th0u-cyd-i-des Trap from going nuclear**
Lam Peng Er 2016 - Senior Research Fellow, East Asian Institute "China, the United States, Alliances, and War: Avoiding the Thucydides Trap?," Asian Affairs: An American Review Volume 43, Issue 2, 2016, p. 36-36

That the intelligentsia in the United States and China openly ................................management between the United States and China.

**Avoiding war from the Thucydides trap requires mutual understanding.**
Allison 15 – (Graham Allison is the director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School. He served as Special Advisor to the Secretary of Defense under President Reagan and as Assistant Secretary of Defense for Policy and Plans under President Clinton. He has twice been awarded the Department of Defense's highest civilian award, the Distinguished Public Service Medal. “The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War?” September 24, 2015, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/09/united-states-china-war-thucydides-trap/406756/)~SY

Last November, in a seminal meeting of ...... than anyone has yet imagined.

**S&ED creates the channels necessary to ensure cooperation in moments tension**
Garrison 2016 – Director of International Studies @ University of Wyoming Jean and Marc Wall, "The Rise of Hedging and Regionalism: An Explanation and Evaluation of President Obama's China Policy," Asian Affairs: An American Review Volume 43, Issue 2, 2016, p 47-63

With each flare-up in tensions, cooler ....................... of a practical, no-nonsense approach to maintain overall stability and manage ongoing tensions.

** An extension of S&ED that includes higher level officials ensures that mistrust stays in check **
Dai 2016 - Former State Councilor of China Bingguo, "On Building a New Model of Major-Country Relations Between China and the United States," Jun 20, [|www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjb_663304/zzjg_663340/bmdyzs_664814/xwlb_664816/t1350752.shtml]

For the past decades, China......................... of major-country relationship. The path will be bumpy, but it leads to a bright future.

**By developing already existing mechanisms, the plan solves any alt causes**
Yung 2016 - Donald Bren Chair of Non-Western Strategic Thought at the U.S. Marine Corps University Christopher and Wang Dang, "THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA CAN GET ALONG IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA," Jul 6, warontherocks.com/2016/07/the-united-states-and-china-can-get-along-in-the-south-china-sea/

China and the U nited S tates have ......................... joint interest in preserving stability remains paramount.

**The global economy is weak – and central banks are running out of tricks to keep it from collapsing**
Bartholomeusz 7/11 - Business Spectator Columnist for The Australian Business Review Stephen, "A trap for the global economy?," www.theaustralian.com.au/business/a-trap-for-the-global-economy/news-story/6e438ea2280cc55328742f8bfe5fe001

The challenges facing Bank of England ..................c entral banks would have little capacity to respond.

**S&ED is the only forum for officials from both countries to work on stabilizing the global economy while maintaining US economic leadership**
Lew 2016 - U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Jack, "America and the Global Economy: The Case for US Leadership," Foreign Affairs, May/June Issue

The relationship between the United States and.......................... economic and financial landscape of the future.

**That solves a host of existential threats**
Lew 2016 - U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Jack, "America and the Global Economy: The Case for US Leadership," Foreign Affairs, May/June Issue

But the difficulty in securing ..........................on macroeconomic policy and governance in the IMF, the World Bank, and the G-20.

**Second, Even if progress isn’t made, it __sends a perception__ that calms economic turmoil**
Hormats 2015 - is vice chairman at Kissinger Associates and former U.S. under secretary of state for economic growth, energy, and the environment Robert D, "On Economic Fronts, the U.S. and China Are Stronger Together," Sep 21, foreignpolicy.com/2015/09/21/on-economic-fronts-the-u-s-and-china-are-stronger-together-xi-jinping-visit/

The broader point here is not to suggest that................................... misreading of the other’s policies or intentions.

**That prevents US-C war from breaking out**
Kumar ’15 (Kalyan Kumar is a staff writer for the Australian branch of the International Business Times, 11/17/15, “Economic collapse of big economies like US and China may trigger war, says financial analyst Warren Pollock” [] Poetic Justice)

Leading American financial analyst Warren .............. their heads in their asses in the Pentagon," he added.

**The S&ED is essential for implementing structural reforms that allow for sustained Chinese growth**
Hong 6/8 (Zou Hong is a staff writer for China Daily, “China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue: Structural reforms to aim for stable growth” 6/8/16, [] Poetic Justice)

China and the U nited S tates reached ................ a possible U.S. Federal Reserve rate increase.

**A collapsed Chinese economy is one that invites belligerence and causes war**
Dobell 2016 - Journalism Fellow at the Lowy Institute Graeme, "The Biggest China 'Threat': War in the South China Sea or Economic Meltdown?," Jul 5, nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-biggest-china-threat-war-the-south-china-sea-or-economic-16843?page=show

If China’s future course is the vital question,........................... the South China Sea stays closer to the teacup end of the scale.

Plan
====The United States federal government should diplomatically engage the People’s Republic of China by offering to indefinitely extend and include higher-level officials at the Strategic & Economic Dialogue.====

**The eighth and final round of Strategic and Economic Dialogue concluded in June, opening channels for communication and cooperation on a litany of issues**
Shen 2016 - professor and Vice Dean at the Institute of International Studies, Fudan University Dingli, "Strategic Dialogue Advances Partnership, with a Limit," Jun 14, www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/strategic-dialogue-advances-partnership-with-a-limit/

China and the US have just................. economic and people-based cooperation.

**Scheduling the next round now signals commitment and allows for changes making for more effective discussions**
Reade 2016 - Senior Associate with the Freeman chair in China Studies @ CSIS Claire, "The U.S.-China S&ED: Time to Tinker, Not to Toss," Jun 27, https://www.csis.org/analysis/us-china-sed-time-tinker-not-toss

The last U.S.-China Strategic and Economic ................ while increasing the effect iveness of the effort.

**Upgrading the SED to include presidential dialogue sets a clear agenda and builds crisis management mechanisms**
Rudd 2015 - Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs & Former Prime Minister, Australia Kevin, "US-China 21: The Future of US-China Relations Under Xi Jinping," belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Summary%20Report%20US-China%2021.pdf

Beyond the two countries’ embassies, the .................... This is now necessary because the stakes today are even higher.

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