Chloe+Chen+and+Nassim+Fedel



= __ 1AC Heg—Credibility __ = **Rogin, 10** - staff writer for Foreign Policy, Prior to that, Josh covered defense and foreign policy for Congressional Quarterly. Josh has also worked at the House International Relations Committee, and the Brookings Institution (Josh, “Petraeus: Withdrawal timeline does not mean "switching off the lights",” The Cable, 6/29, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/06/29/petraeus_withdrawal_timeline_does_not_mean_switching_off_the_lights )
 * Obama announced a July 2011 withdrawal date, but it is based on the conditional success of the counterinsurgency mission. This deadline is __perceived__ as unconditional withdrawal and has created global confusion**

When General David Petraeus testifies … __exactly what they've been doing__ ."

** __ Announced withdrawal shattered credibility __ ** **Rubin, 10** – resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute ; senior lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School's Center for Civil-Military Relations; and a senior editor of the // Middle East Quarterly //. (Michael, Public Square, 3/8, “The Afghanistan Withdrawal: Why Obama Was Wrong to Insist on a Deadline,” http://www.michaelrubin.org/7033/afghanistan-withdrawal-deadline ) __It is true,__ as Schlesinger … __ Pakistan, Iran, and even Russia __.

= __1AC Heg—Public Support__ =

**__ Public support- Afghanistan kills it __** **Gvosdev, 6/25/10** - former editor of the National Interest (Nikolas, “The Realist Prism: Knowing When to Walk Away from Afghanistan,” World Politics View, [] CT) The **__ Obama administration is running … to Chiang than to Uribe__**.

G. John **__Ikenberry__**, Professor of … **__support__**  –  **__that could be drying up__**.
 * Its key to hegemony **

** Stewart, 10 ** - Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at Harvard, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (Rory, “ Afghanistan: What Could Work”, New York Review of Books, 1/14, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2010/jan/14/afghanistan-what-could-work/?page=3) __ But this moderate tone gains … a much greater focus on Kashmir  __ .1
 * Obama will sell the plan as a drawdown to a lighter but permanent commitment to Afghanistan – this resolves confusion over the withdrawal deadline and restores US credibility **

vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at Cato (Malou and Ted, “Escaping the Graveyard of Empires: A Strategy to Exit Afghanistan,” http://www.cato.org/pubs/wtpapers/escaping-graveyard-empires-strategy-exit-afghanistan.pdf ) Myth #3: Withdrawal Would Erode America’s … ** __ undermine U.S. security than would withdrawal __ . **

Continued overdeployment and commitment in Afghanistan devastates our ability to accomplish important foreign policy goals Obama's final decision in December … __… any of his other initiatives__.

US engagement solves genocide ** – PhD from Harvard, Professor of Government and International Affairs at Georgetown, former consultant to the State Department and for National Intelligence Estimates (Robert, “The American Era”, pages 51-52, WEA) ** __ The U nited S tates possesses the __ … Sudan __ provides a more recent example __. = __ 1AC Heg—Overstretch __ =

Overstretch- Afghanistan causes it ** – Frequently assists think tank … __ a rising power (China, a reinvigorated Russia __ ). **

This collapses deterrence ** - former secretary of defense and senior fellow at CSIS, (William J Perry, Former Secretary of Defense, and Michele A. Flournoy, Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, National Defense, “The US Military: Under Strain And At Risk,” – National Defense, May, http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/issues/2006/may/TheU.S.MilitaryUnder.htm) ** **.**

Overstrech kills multilateralism Elsewhere we are also losing … __and engagement for several years__ .
 * Keith W.   **Mines**, Founding Member, Council on Emerging National Security Affairs, and Political Officer, United States Embassy in Ottawa,   **3/8/2005** (“On Fighting a 16-Division War with a 10-Division Force” – Foreign Policy Research Institute) accessed 7/9/2006, http://www.fpri.org/enotes/20050308.military.mines.16dwar10dforce.html **

Thats key to solve every global problem __In the end, the strong … __ lend legitimacy to US policies.
 * Stewart ** Patrick  **, Research Associate, Center on International Cooperation, New York University <span style="font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">  **, 2002**<span style="font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 8pt;"> (Multilateralism and United States Foreign Policy) p. 19 **

Independently,- Overstretch causes global WMD conflicts ** Hankuk University of Foreign Studies (Dennis, “Hegemonic Overreach vs. Imperial Overstretch,” 2/6, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID1548783_code1259934.pdf?abstractid=1548783&mirid=1 ) ** __ There is an even larger … particularly prone to massive miscalculation. __

Withdrawal allows the US to replenish its strategic reserve ** - American political scientist. He is the chief intelligence officer, and CEO of the private intelligence corporation Stratfor. Prior to Stratfor, Friedman spent almost twenty years in academia, teaching political science at Dickinson College. During this time, he regularly briefed senior commanders in the armed services as well as the U.S. Army War College (George, “The 30-Year War in Afghanistan,” Stratfor, 6/29, **  http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100628_30_year_war_afghanistan )

There is an anomaly in this strategy, however. Where the United States previously had devolved operational responsibility to allied groups, or simply hunkered down, this strategy tries to return to devolved responsibilities by first surging U.S. operations. The fourth phase actually increases U.S. operational responsibility in order to reduce it. __From the grand strategic point … and re-establish its ground reserves __.

= __ 1AC Heg—Readiness __ =

Readiness- afghanistan will kill it ** the president of the Edmund Burke Institute for American Renewal __  (Jeffrey, Washington Times, “Obama’s quagmire; US should look to its own interests,” 9/7, Lexis Academic)  __** __America is losing the war …__ evil, welcoming __ arms of extremists. __

This causes great power war ** Vice Chair of the Utah State Legislative Compensation Commission and Vice President of the Association of the United States Army's Utah chapter and a Vice President of the Salt Lake Total Force Chapter of the Military Officers Association of America (David, “  Obama failing our troops in Afghanistan,” 11/7, http://westernfrontamerica.com/2009/11/07/obama-failing-troops-afghanistan/) ** __ Since we invaded Iraq six … US-ally Georgia  __ this past year.

= __ 1AC Heg—Dollar Hegemony __ =

Dollar hegemony- continued large deployments collapse it along with the global economy ** – Ph.D. from the University of Paris and is a graduate of the U.S. Naval War College, currently on leave from the US State Department (Tony, “Toward a Kilcullen-Biden Plan? ** Bounding Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan,” Small Wars Journal, 10/21, http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2009/10/toward-a-kilcullenbiden-plan/   Just do the math - __ with 63,000 … __ by Vice-President Joe Biden.

Economic leadership prevents economic collapse—leadership preserves resilience ** – Professor and Director of the American Foreign Policy Program at Johns Hopkins – 2005 [Michael, The Case for Goliath: How America Acts As the World’s Government in the Twenty-First Century, p. 192-195] ** Although the spread of nuclear … __a fleet of cars without gasoline.__

That goes nuclear without economic leadership ** – Professor and Director of the American Foreign Policy Program at Johns Hopkins – 2005 [Michael, The Case for Goliath: How America Acts As the World’s Government in the Twenty-First Century, p. 224] ** At best, an American withdrawal … __large numbers, of nuclear weapons __.

Restricting our mission to counterterrorism frees up resources to pay down debt ** – Frequently assists think tank in conferences and other work products that aid DoD's long-term thinking about threats that may not be addressable via weapons platforms. Spent six months in Afghanistan working with Army public affairs. (Paul, “Against COIN, for CT in Afghanistan and Elsewhere”, 1/7, Beacon (a blog), http://softpowerbeacon.blogspot.com/2010/01/against-coin-for-ct-in-afghanistan-and.html) ** Benefits of a CT Focus
 * __Pulling … sway those in the middle__ .  **

= __ 1AC Heg—Solvency __ =

No Offense- the US will go down fighting ** “Follies of Power: America’s Unipolar Fantasy” p. 4-5 ** __ It is tempting to believe …__ another, the world grows dangerous.

Hegemony still matters in a multipolar world ** Senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security (George, “A Gentler Hegemony”, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/16/AR2008121602480.html) ** __ Of course we are entering a … as their own capacities rise. __

The plan solves – reducing to a counterterrorism focus creates sustainable presence, and prevents vacillations between engagement and isolationism ** Ryan Family Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (9/16/09, Rory, “The Future of Afghanistan,”  http://www.hks.harvard.edu/news-events/news/testimonies/rory-stewart-on-afghanistan ) ** __ The best Afghan policy would … __ -term, less will be more.

The plan’s rejection of counterinsurgency creates a doctrinal shift towards selective engagement that can sustain US presence globally ** - Senior Defense Analyst at the RAND Corporation and a former deputy assistant secretary of defense. She served two tours in Iraq, including a year as a senior adviser to General Peter Chiarelli, the operational commander in Iraq in 2006 (Celeste, “False Promise of 'Counterinsurgency'”, 12/1, http://www.rand.org/commentary/2009/12/01/NYT.html) ** __ An effort to conduct " counterinsurgency " … capable of applying overwhelming force. __

Heg sustainable – doomsayers are wrong ** “ America’s Global Advantage US Hegemony and International Cooperation” p. 1-2 ** __ The United States has been … deficit policy would otherwise have. __

= __ 1AC War—Losing Now __ =

The War is unwinnable –numbers and nationalism mean that even if we win every battle we can’t beat the insurgency Dorronsoro, 09** - visiting scholar at the … any foreign forces ever could. **

No chance of winning with COIN in Afghanistan ** – former director of a Joint Task Force in support of Operation Enduring Freedom, retired naval officer with assignments at the National Counterterrorism Center and National Security Council, and Senior Fellow at the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (Rick, “The Other Side of the COIN”, 10/1, http://csis.org/publication/other-side-coin ) ** ** Probably not. __ Counterinsurgency doctrine__, … any “all-in” approach would entail. **

A large military footprint combined with the perception of an illegitimate government make crushing the Taliban impossible Galston 10 - ** Senior Fellow of Governance Studies @ Brookings (William, Senior Fellow of Governance Studies @ Brookings, “A Question of Life and Death: U.S. Policy in Afghanistan,” Brookings, June 15th, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2010/0615_afghanistan_galston.aspx) ** __ Are the basic premises of … and political force in Afghanistan. __

__ Pashtun nationalism and the lack of history with a strong state makes combatting corruption or raising a sustainable security force impossible. __ ** - visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (9/23/09, Gilles, The National Interest, “Afghanization,” http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=22218 ) **
 * __  In addition,   __ ** there is no … ** of the discredited Karzai regime. **

__ Nationalism means that even if the US won every battle it couldn’t beat the insurgency __ ** - visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (2/9/09, Gilles, The National Interest, “Going South in Afghanistan,” c ) ** __  Afghanistan may be the right … any foreign forces ever could. __ = __ 1AC War—Pakistan Collapse __ =

A large counterinsurgency footprint drives insurgents to Pakistan, mobilizes the Pakistani Taliban and will cause Pakistan to collapse __ Akhtar, 10 <span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif';">-  __ **  professor of international relations, … __ moment, thus destabilizing the state. __ **

Pakistan collapse causes global nuclear conflict – draws in China, India and Russia ** - //<span style="font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 8pt; font-style: normal;">a New York Times and internationally bestselling author of two books: "War on Iraq: What Team Bush Doesn't Want You to Know" and "The Greatest Sedition Is Silence." (5/8/09, William, “Unstable Pakistan Threatens the World,” // http://www.arabamericannews.com/news/index.php?mod=article&cat=commentary&article=2183 ) ** But a suicide bomber in Pakistan … situation. So should we all.

= __1AC War—Terrorism__ =

** __used in a terrorist attack" by 2013__  . **

Afghanistan is a vital safe haven for al Qaeda – terrorism is inevitable but nuclear risks can be reduced is the US drives them out ** - director of the National Security Project at the Progressive Policy Institute. He was a counterterrorism analyst with the Naval Criminal Investigative Service from 2002 to 2007 (Jim, “Why Al Qaeda Wants a Safe Haven”, 10/23, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/10/23/got_safe_haven) ** __I spent five years as a … physical space it can access__.

Nuclear terrorism causes extinction ** - Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin Campus - South Korea (Dennis, Futures, November, “World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race,” Science Direct) ** In a remarkable website on nuclear … __and suffering in a nuclear winter__.

__ Gradual withdrawal while maintaining a counterterrorism strategy allows more effective US leadership in the war on terror and maximizes US credibility __ ** - professor of strategic studies at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi (9/14/09, Brahma, Japan Times, “An Advantagous U.S. Exit,” http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20090914bc.html ) ** __  When the administration's principal war … deep-rooted military-mullah alliance. __

A substantial drawdown to a purely counterterrorism presence will maximize US influence in Central Asia and contain instability and terrorism ** * adjunct Senior … it has, in fact, become. **

= __ 1AC War—Solvency __ =

Indicts of the counterterrorism option underestimate the size of what the plan leaves intact – it is sufficiently resourced to provide force protection, intelligence gathering, army training and will maintain the support of the local population Long, 10 ** - assistant professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs (Austin, “Small is Beautiful: The Counterterrorism Option in Afghanistan,” Orbis, Spring 2010, Science Direct) ** This insoluble problem is why the counterterrorism option is important. If even a costly effort in Afghanistan cannot fully achieve the goal against al Qaeda, then it is crucial to determine whether a less costly effort can achieve a similar effect by keeping Afghanistan inhospitable to al Qaeda. This would be a clear and cost-effective alignment of resources with goals, the essence of strategy. Determining the viability of the … presents __a__  possible __ counterterrorism force posture __. Possible Counterterrorism Force Posture First, this posture __would require …__  one in reserve at Bagram.10 These forces would work together as task forces, with the Tier 1 operators being tasked with executing direct action missions to kill or capture al Qaeda targets while the other units would serve as security and support for these missions. According to Sean Naylor’s reporting, these direct action task forces are structured like the regional task forces in Iraq in 2006 that were tasked to hunt al Qaeda in Iraq. Naylor also reports similar units are already in place in Afghanistan.11 __In addition to these ground …__ of several Army aviation units.14 The JAF based task force would likely need to operate principally in the heartland of the Haqqani network (Khost, Paktia, and Paktika provinces) as this would be where al Qaeda’s principal ally in the east could best protect its members (who are not generally Pashtun). For similar reasons, the KAF based task force would principally operate against targets in Kandahar, the home of the Quetta Shura Taliban, and some of the surrounding provinces such as Helmand and Oruzgan. Both task forces would nonetheless be capable of acting against targets elsewhere in the Pashtun regions. __In addition__ to these two … a history of resisting the Taliban.22 Supporting local allies does not mean abandoning the Afghan government any more than supporting local allies in the Awakening movement in Iraq’s Anbar province meant abandoning the Iraq government. However, it does pose risks, as local allies interests may not always align with those of the central government.23 Balancing the two will require deftness which will be discussed later. In addition to the two … be approximately 5,000 U.S. and Coalition troops.25 In addition, a conventional force component would be needed to serve as a quick reaction force, to provide security for the bases, and to protect convoys. A reasonable estimate for this force would be a brigade or regimental combat team, giving a battalion to each base with the higher headquarters at Bagram. This would add about another 3,500 troops.26 In addition, about 500 U.S. personnel would remain as advisers and liaisons to Afghan security forces, particularly the Afghan National Army where they would be attached at brigade and corps level. Additional air support besides the … __ than any other counterterrorism deployment. __

Withdrawal of combat troops will immediately turn the population against the Taliban and sure up Afghan government legitimacy Dorronsoro,9 - ** Visiting Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (January 2009, Gilles, “Focus and Exit: An Alternative Strategy for the Afghan War,” http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/afghan_war-strategy.pdf ) This three-zone strategy is … __independence of Afghanistan’s peripheral regions.__