Cody+&+Ayu

=**Natural Gas Aff**= ====**Plan: The United States Federal Government should remove restrictions on and accelerate leasing of offshore natural gas production of the Outer Continental Shelf within the Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic Ocean, and Pacific Ocean.**====

**Contention 1 is Prices:**
Shale is Unsustainable:

a) economics, and depleting reservoirs
Gopinath 13 [New Delhi economist writing for Yale Global Online (Deepak, “Shale Energy No Quick Solution,” Yale Global Online, http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/shale-energy-no-quick-solution]

(The...resources)

b) Temporary recoveries only mask structural instabilities
Ahmed 14 [Dr. Nafeez Ahmed is the Executive Director of the Institute for Policy Research & Development and Chief Research Officer at Unitas Communications where he leads on geopolitical risk. (“Former BP geologist: peak oil is here and it will 'break economies'”, The Guardian, January 2014]

(What...destruction)

The impact is price spikes
Maize 12

[“Is Shale Gas Shallow or the Real Deal?”, Kennedy, Veteran Journalist Kennedy Maize has spent the past 40 years working as a journalist, analyst, and manager in the private sector and federal government, with over 35 years of that focused on energy and environmental topics, http://www.powermag.com/gas/Is-Shale-Gas-Shallow-or-the-Real-Deal_5188.html] (In...now)

Natural Gas Price Increase crushes the economy
Schwartzel 13

[Erich Schwartzel, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Expert on Fracking, visited Pappas’ Public Policy Class and was part of a round table discussion that consisted of Barry Rabe, professor at UM and others, really funny too, “U.S. report predicts rising natural gas prices in 2013-14”,  [] ]

(The...term)

Robust domestic production is key to manufacturing growth—that’s the basis for economic recovery
Duesterberg, 12

[Tom is Executive Director of the Manufacturing and Society in the 21st Century program at the Aspen Institute. He recently retired as President and CEO of The Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, an economic research and executive education organization based in Arlington, Virginia with more than 500 manufacturing firms as members. Previous positions include: Director of the Washington Office of The Hudson Institute, Assistant Secretary for International Economic Policy at the U.S. Department of Commerce, chief of staff to two members of Congress, and associate instructor at Stanford University. His commentary and analysis on manufacturing, economic performance, globalization, and related policy issues can be found in major news outlets. He holds a B.A. degree from Princeton and M. A. and Ph.D. degrees from Indiana University, “Impact of the Energy Boom on US Manufacturing”, []] (The manufacturing...transportation sector)

Adequate natural gas supply is key to low prices—galvanizes the economy
Pirog and Ratner 12

[Energy specialist in the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies International Economics Program, **specialist in energy policy for the Congressional Research Service (Robert and Michael, “Natural Gas in the U.S. Economy: Opportunities for Growth” Congressional News Service, http://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42814.pdf] (Expanded...method)

Natural gas production directly correlates with __growth and innovation__
Carey 12

[Julie M, Julie M. Carey is an energy economist with Navigant Economics who provides consulting and testifying services Navigant’s unconventional oil and gas offerings include advisory services for strategic business decision analysis, construction risk management, economic and antitrust analyses, investment banking and restructuring advisory services, and expert services for disputes and investigations, “How Unconventional Oil And Gas Is Supercharging The U.S. Economy”, http://www.forbes.com/sites/energysource/2012/12/13/how-unconventional-oil-and-gas-is-transforming-the-u-s-economy/]

(It's...jobs)

Domestic manufacturing is key to overall resilience
Ettlinger, 11

[Michael, Vice President for Economic Policy at the Center forAmerican Progress Prior to joining the Center, he spent six years at the EconomicPolicy Institute directing the Economic Analysis and Research Network.Previously, he was tax policy director for Citizens for Tax Justice and the Instituteon Taxation and Economic Policy for 11 years. He has also served on the staff ofthe New York State Assembly. “The Importance and Promise of American Manufacturing Why It Matters if We Make It in America and Where We Stand Today”, http://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/issues/2011/04/pdf/manufacturing.pdf]

(Manufacturing...disasters)

Economic collapse causes competition for resources and instability that escalates and goes nuclear
Harris and Burrows, 9

[counselor in the National Intelligence Council, the principal drafter of Global Trends 2025, **member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis”, Washington Quarterly, http://www.twq.com/09april/docs/09apr_burrows.pdf]

(Increased...world)

Our impact has a strong statistical basis
Royal 10

[Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises,” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-214]

<span style="font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;">(Less...attention)

Natural gas key to spur growth in the chemical industry
<span style="font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;">Pirog and Ratner 12

Energy specialist in the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies International Economics Program, **specialist in energy policy for the Congressional Research Service Robert and Michael, “Natural Gas in the U.S. Economy: Opportunities for Growth” Congressional News Service, [|http://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42814.pdf]

<span style="font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;">(Natural gas...refiners)

Soles Extinction
ICCA 2 <span style="font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; font-size: 7pt;">(CCA (International Council of Chemical Associations), “SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY,” http://www.cefic.be/position/icca/pp_ic010.htm)/ (Sustainability...job creation)

A US-led natural gas revolution solidifies global leadership
Mead 12 [Walter Russell Mead is the James Clark Chase Professor of Foreign Affairs and Humanitites at Bard College and an Editor-At-Large for American Interest. ("Energy Revolution 2: A Post Post-American Post", American interest, httpp://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/07/15/energy-revolution-2-a-post-post-american-post/, July 15, 2012)

(Forget peak...order)

Energy primacy is key to primacy and prevents extinction
Hagel 12

[Chuck Hagel is a professor at Georgetown University. ("The Challenge of Change", http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/challenge-change, May 15, 2012)

(A new...prices)

Hegemony solves __conflict escalation__ and __great power war__
<span style="font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;">Brooks et al. 13 <span style="font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; font-size: 8pt;">[Don't Come Home, America: The Case against Retrenchment Stephen G. Brooks (bio), [|G. John Ikenberry] (bio) and William C. Wohlforth (bio), Stephen G. Brooks; G. John Ikenberry and William C. Wohlforth STEPHEN G. BROOKS is Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College. G. JOHN IKENBERRY is Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University and Global Eminence Scholar at Kyung Hee University in Seoul. WILLIAM C. WOHLFORTH is Daniel Webster Professor of Government at Dartmouth College, [|International Security] Volume 37, Number 3, Winter 2012, p. Project Muse] <span style="font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;">(Assessing...U.S preferences)

Independently new geopolitical change in gas solves resource wars
Mead, 12

<span style="font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; font-size: 8pt;">[Walter Russell, James Clarke Chace Professor of Foreign Affairs and Humanities at Bard College, 7/18/12, “Energy Revolution 3: The New American Century” The American Interest) []]

(But on...laid back)

Nuke war
McBay et al, 11 <span style="font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; font-size: 8pt;">[Eric McBay et al, Lierre Keith, Derrick Jensen, May 5, 2011 publication. “Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save the Planet” Google Books] (Resource wars...before)

OCS restrictions must be lifted and federal action is key – Congress has to fund DOI leasing projects
<span style="font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;">Lieberman 8

[senior policy analyst for Energy and Environment for the Heritage Foundation (Ben, “Listing the Offshore Drilling Ban: A Positive Step in the Fight against High Energy Prices”, The Heritage Foundation, 7/14/2008, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2008/07/lifting-the-offshore-drilling-ban-a-positive-step-in-the-fight-against-high-energy-prices]

<span style="font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;">(Washington...successful)

85% of gas is off limits now
Luthi, 12 <span style="font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; font-size: 8pt;">[Luthi is the president of the National Ocean Industry Association, representing more than 275 companies engaged in all aspects of the exploration and production of both traditional and renewable energy resources on the nation’s outer continental shelf, “Let's find agreement on new offshore access”, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/energy-a-environment/267089-lets-find-agreement-on-new-offshore-access] <span style="font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; font-size: 17px;">(Now that...go look)

And, the plan creates certainty for offshore production—balances supply
<span style="font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;">Griles 3

<span style="font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; font-size: 8pt;">[Lisa, Deputy Secretary, Department of the Interior, “Energy Production on Federal Lands,” Hearing before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, United States Senate]

<span style="font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;">(Mr. Griles...to go)

And, that sustains low prices and ensures adequate supply
Hastings, 12

<span style="font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; font-size: 8pt;">[House Representative Doc, Republican Washington, President Obama's offshore drilling plan must be replaced, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/energy-a-environment/239529-president-obamas-offshore-drilling-plan-must-be-replaced]

(Though President...America's economy)

Nearly 100 new projects are capable of development
<span style="font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">Hillegeist et al 11

[President and COO at Quest Offshore Resources, Inc, Sean Shafer, Project Director, Andrew Jackson, Project Manager, Leslie Cook, Senior Research Consultant) December 2011 “The State of the Offshore U.S. Oil and Gas Industry” http://energytomorrow.org/images/uploads/Quest_2011_December_29_Final.pdf] (If drilling...government revenue)

Otherwise, restrictions __crush predictability and timing__ of projects
<span style="font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;">Hagerty 10

<span style="font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; font-size: 8pt;">[Specialist in Energy and Natural Resources Policy at the Congressional Research Service) June 15, 2010 “Outer Continental Shelf Moratoria on Oil and Gas Development” http://crs.ncseonline.org/nle/crsreports/10Jul/R41132.pdf]

<span style="font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;">(One legacy...leasing prohibitions)

====Obama’s recent announcement only approved seismic studies to determine where resources might be located---it’s entirely separate from decisions about resource development, which the plan authorizes---but it’s perceived as a pro-industry move, which makes disad links non-unique==== <span style="font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;">HC 7-18

<span style="font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; font-size: 8pt;">(Houston Chronicle, “Seismic rift: Obama splits with environmentalists on Atlantic oil exploration,” 7/18/14, http://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Seismic-rift-Obama-splits-with-environmentalists-5631901.php)

<span style="font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;">(The Obama...slowing the timeline)


 * <span style="font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;">Negative off-case positions: **

T-its Privatization CP Midterms DA Security K Impact defense on Case
 * 1) Desalination Aff--Mitch & Will [CL Lab]**
 * 1NC strat--**
 * 2NR-- Security and Case**

T-non military Military CP Ex Im PTX DA Security K Case turns: Shipping
 * 2) Arctic Mapping--Michelle & Nicole [SS lab]**
 * 1NC strat--**
 * 2NR--Case**

T-its Russia oil DA Cap & Trade CP Case turns: Heg
 * 3) Natural Gas--Sammie & Myna [SS lab]**
 * 1NC Strat--**
 * 2NR--Case **