Joe+and+Sean

Contention 1 is inherency

The U.S. plans to keep forces in S. Korea until 2012   Transformation of the U.S.- South … the timetable for OPCON transfer. 
 * Bakanic et al 08 **; (Elizabeth Bakanic, Mark Christopher, Sandya Das, Laurie Freeman, George Hodgson, Mike Hunzeker, R. Scott Kemp, Sung Hwan Lee, Florentina Mulaj, Ryan Phillips; all part of Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson School of International Affairs); January 2008; // Preventing Nuclear Proliferation Chain Reactions: Japan, South Korea, and Egypt //; [] 

 Thus the plan:

The United States federal government should implement a phased withdrawal of its ground troops in the Republic of Korea.

 Contention 2 is Korean Conflict

The sinking of the Cheonan makes conflict inevitable – retaliation will spark an escalatory war and failure to respond will only cause more North Korean provocations  __It has been weeks since … __to defend its own personnel.
 * Bandow, 10 ** – senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to Reagan (4/18/10, Doug, “Let the Koreans Take Care of the Koreas,” [], JMP)

 The status quo is __…__ now in __five different ways__ [], JMP)  <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">USUALLY, there is a familiar cycle … ** __<span style="background: yellow; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-highlight: yellow;">North Korea found its customers __ **** __<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">. __ **<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">
 * <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Sanger **** <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">,  **** <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">10  ** <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">(5/28/10, David E. Sanger, NY Times, “In the Koreas, Five Possible Ways to War,”

<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"> Quick attacks are the best way for Kim Jong Il to get political victories—means there’s a short time frame because of irrationality. <span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> Young, inexperienced and virtually unknown … __ to make his political debut. __ <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"> Also, North Korean aggression and nuclearization will cause intentional, miscalculated, or accidental nuclear conflict – even a limited nuclear war causes rapid cooling and ozone disruption, collapses the economy, and spills over to other hot spots <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"> <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">The international community is increasingly … consideration from the international community. <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"> U.S. presence makes provocations inevitable and guarantees our draw in <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"> <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Suspicions continue to mount that … doing so in 2010 is bizarre. <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"> Conventional weaknesses will force North Korea to resort to CBW use – either deliberate, accidental or unauthorized <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">This report examines North Korea’s chemical and biological weapons capabilities in the context of its military doctrine and national objectives. It is based on open source literature, interviews and unpublished documents made available to Crisis Group. Companion reports published simultaneously assess the DPRK’s nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities and what the policy response of the international community should be to its recent nuclear and missile testing.[1] <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"> <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">North Korea’s programs to develop ** __<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">… unauthorised WMD attacks or incidents. __ **
 * <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Lee, 10 ** <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">(5/27/10, Jean H., writer for the Associated Press, The Associated Press, “Analysis: Attack May Be Tied to NKorean Succession”, http://www.lexisnexis.com)
 * <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Hayes & Hamel-Green, 10 ** <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">– *Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development, AND ** Executive Dean of the Faculty of Arts, Education and Human Development act Victoria University (1/5/10, Executive Dean at Victoria, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia,” [])
 * <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Bandow **** <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">,  **** <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">10  ** <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">– Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (5/3/10, Doug, “Taming Pyongyang,” [], JMP)
 * <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">ICG, 09 **<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"> (6/18/09, International Crisis Group, “North Korea’s Chemical and Biological Weapons Programs,” [], JMP)

North Korean bioweapons use would __…__ – greater risk that nuclear weapons <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 5.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"> <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 5.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Immediately following 9-11, an anthrax attack originating from __<span style="background: yellow; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-highlight: yellow;">… __<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 5.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">can be developed within days. <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"> Impact is extinction <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> Of all the weapons of mass … then patriotism is the highest of all crimes. Withdrawing ground troops solves – stops North Korea from probing U.S. weakness to draw our forces into a wider conflict. Air and naval installations will maintain power projection capabilities. <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"> <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Proceeding against the advice of …, aligns with the correct result. <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"> Contention 3 is China <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> The plan allows for peaceful Chinese expansion, status quo guarantees conflict <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;">“First Among Equals,” [], JMP) <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"> <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"> <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">It’s the job of military … ** __<span style="background: yellow; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-highlight: yellow;">smoother will be the transition __ **** __<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">. __ ** <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"> Withdrawal solves accidental war with China, stops friction with Japan and yields a nuclear free peninsula <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"> <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">NO NORMAL DIPLOMACY The U.S. finds … __<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">it. We can help them do so. __<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"> <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"> Conflict with China will escalate to global nuclear war <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United States of America”, []] <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> __<span style="background: yellow; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-highlight: yellow;">A war between China, Taiwan … __<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">be considered in this study.
 * <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Levy, 07 **<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"> (6-8-07, Janet Ellen, The American Thinking, “The Threat of Bioweapons,” [], JMP)
 * <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Ochs 02 **<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> – MA in Natural Resource Management from Rutgers University and Naturalist at Grand Teton National Park <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">[Richard, “BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS MUST BE ABOLISHED IMMEDIATELY,” Jun 9, http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html] <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">
 * <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Stanton, 10 **<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"> – U.S. Army Judge Advocate in Korea from 98-02 and practicing attorney in Washington, D.C. (4/12/10, Joshua, The New Ledger, “It's Time for the U.S. Army to Leave Korea,” [], JMP)
 * <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Bandow, 09 ** <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;">– Fellow at the American Conservative Defense Alliance and Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (1/12/09, Doug,
 * <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Garfinkle, 03 **<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"> – taught American foreign policy and Middle East politics at the University of Pennsylvania and is editor of The National Interest (1/27/03, Adam, National Review, “Checking Kim,” [], JMP)
 * <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Hunkovic, 09 **** <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> –  **<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">American Military University [Lee J, 2009, “The Chinese-Taiwanese Conflict

<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"> U.S. ground withdrawal forces China to stop North Korean proliferation—this solves allied prolif What value, then, is the … __ and economic tools on Pyongyang ____. __
 * <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">BANDOW 2010 ** <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">(Doug, senior fellow at the Cato Institute. A former special assistant to President Ronald Reagan, he is the author of Tripwire: Korea and U.S. Foreign Policy in a Changed World and co-author of The Korean Conundrum: America's Troubled Relations with North and South Korea, “Let the Koreans Take Care of the Koreas,” Huffington Post, May 21, []) Calum <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">

China’s rise is inevitable – the US response determines whether it will be a danger <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> __<span style="background: yellow; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-highlight: yellow;">As it faces an ascendant … ____<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">system, the West will triumph. __
 * <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Ikenberry, 08 ** <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">– professor of International Affairs at Princeton University (Jan/Feb 2008, John G., Vol. 87, Issue 1 Foreign Affairs, “The Rise of China and the Future of the West,” Proquest)

<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"> Contention 4 is solvency

U.S. alliance relationships are unsustainable – … and stop major power domination <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"> <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">At the conclusion of the … a strong, independent East Asian Union. <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"> Specially, withdrawal will reduce Korea’s veto of multilateral security mechanisms – yielding a peace system on the peninsula that prevents great power war <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"> <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Korea’s Option of Multilateral Security … __<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">form of the U.S.-Korea alliance. __<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">
 * <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Francis, 06 **<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"> – former Australian Ambassador to Croatia and fellow at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University from 05-06 (Fall 2006, Neil, Harvard International Review, “For an East Asian Union: Rethinking Asia's Cold War Alliances,” [], JMP)
 * <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Lee, 09 **<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"> – Seoul National University (December 2009, Geun, “The Nexus between Korea’s Regional Security Options and Domestic Politics,” [|www.cfr.org], JMP)