Julia+and%20Ayush

Afghanistan Aff Advantages- Dollar (economic leadership impact) Hegemony (Thayer) Insurgency (Pakistan Instability and Nuclear Terrorism)

Plan- The United States federal government should substantially reduce military presence assigned to the counterinsurgency mission in Afghanistan.


 * Advantage I: Hegemony**
 * The US won’t withdraw in July 2011 – but the announcement of the deadline is perceived as withdrawal**
 * Rogin, 10** - staff writer for Foreign Policy, Prior to that, Josh covered defense and foreign policy for Congressional Quarterly. Josh has also worked at the House International Relations Committee, and the Brookings Institution (Josh, “Petraeus: Withdrawal timeline does not mean "switching off the lights",” The Cable, 6/29, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/06/29/petraeus_withdrawal_timeline_does_not_mean_switching_off_the_lights )

When General David Petraeus … what they've been doing ."


 * COIN is impossible in Afghanistan**
 * Nelson, 9** – former director of a Joint Task Force in support of Operation Enduring Freedom, retired naval officer with assignments at the National Counterterrorism Center and National Security Council, and Senior Fellow at the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (Rick, “The Other Side of the COIN”, 10/1, http://csis.org/publication/other-side-coin )

Q1: General McChrystal is expected to …. that any “all-in” approach would entail.


 * Cross border sanctuaries, government corruption, ethnic tensions within the Afghan army and the utter failure of population protection makes failure inevitable**
 * Dorronsoro, 10** - visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment, is an expert on Afghanistan, Turkey, and South Asia. Previously, Dorronsoro was a professor of political science at the Sorbonne, Paris and the Institute of Political Studies of Rennes (Gilles, “The Case for Negotiations,” In These Times, 5/24, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=40863

The coalition's strategy in Afghanistan is at an impasse. The renewed efforts … strategic defeat. Hence the need for a negotiated settlement


 * Security exists only in 5 of 116 areas in Afghanistan and the Taliban is spreading despite Obama’s surge – the problem is COIN itself**
 * Hallinan, 10**-columnist for foreign policy in focus (7/22/10, Conn, “The Great Myth: Counterinsurgency,” [])

When it was launched in March, __ the Marjah …__ of former Afghan War commander General Stanley McChrystal.


 * Failure will spillover to the entirety of US foreign policy and prevent Obama from exercising leadership**
 * Fernholz, 10** – writing fellow at the American Prospect and Research Fellow at the New America Foundation (Tim, The American Prospect, “The Ultimate Test Case,” March, 2010, lexis) **Katulis = security policy analyst at the Center for American Progress**

Obama's final decision in December offered something for everyone, or tried to: The U.S. would deploy an additional 30,000 … any of his other initiatives.


 * The plan restores US credibility – ending the counterinsurgency mission will salvage Obama’s Afghanistan policy and allow a sustainable presence **
 * Stewart, 10 ** - Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at Harvard, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (Rory, “ Afghanistan: What Could Work”, New York Review of Books, 1/14, [] )

But this moderate tone gains Obama the leverage that Bush … a much greater focus on Kashmir .1


 * COIN is overstretching the US military and exhausting American leadership – withdrawing to a counterterrorism strategy is vital to preventing great power challengers **
 * Kretkowski, 10 ** – Frequently assists think tank in conferences and other work products that aid DoD's long-term thinking about threats that may not be addressable via weapons platforms. Spent six months in Afghanistan working with Army public affairs. (Paul, “Against COIN, for CT in Afghanistan and Elsewhere”, 1/7, Beacon (a blog), http://softpowerbeacon.blogspot.com/2010/01/against-coin-for-ct-in-afghanistan-and.html)

Over the winter break I had an epiphany … (China, a reinvigorated Russia  ).

** Kuhner, 9 - ** the president of the Edmund Burke Institute for American Renewal (Jeffrey, Washington Times, “Obama’s quagmire; US should look to its own interests,” 9/7, Lexis Academic)
 * Afghanistan is a quagmire of attrition warfare that is destroying US morale and readiness.**

__ America is losing the war in … Afghans into __ the evil, welcoming __arms of extremists .__


 * This will obliterate American primacy **
 * Pyne, 9 - ** Vice Chair of the Utah State Legislative Compensation Commission and Vice President of the Association of the United States Army's Utah chapter and a Vice President of the Salt Lake Total Force Chapter of the Military Officers Association of America (David, “  Obama failing our troops in Afghanistan,” 11/7, http://westernfrontamerica.com/2009/11/07/obama-failing-troops-afghanistan/)

Since we invaded Iraq six and a half years …i nvasion of US-ally Georgia this past year.


 * American primacy is vital to accessing every major impact—the only threat to world peace is if we allow it to collapse**
 * Thayer, 6 - ** professor of security studies at Missouri State (Bradley, The National Interest, “In Defense of Primacy”, November/December, p. 32-37)


 * Withdrawal allows the US to replenish its strategic reserve**
 * Friedman, 10** - American political scientist. He is the chief intelligence officer, and CEO of the private intelligence corporation Stratfor. Prior to Stratfor, Friedman spent almost twenty years in academia, teaching political science at Dickinson College. During this time, he regularly briefed senior commanders in the armed services as well as the U.S. Army War College (George, “The 30-Year War in Afghanistan,” Stratfor, 6/29, http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100628_30_year_war_afghanistan )

There is an anomaly in this strategy, … re-establish its ground reserves.


 * Reducing presence to just counterterrorism creates sustainable presence, and prevents vacillations between engagement and isolationism**
 * Stewart, 9-** Ryan Family Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (9/16/09, Rory, “The Future of Afghanistan,” http://www.hks.harvard.edu/news-events/news/testimonies/rory-stewart-on-afghanistan )

__The best Afghan policy …__In Afghanistan in the long-term, less will be more.


 * The plan causes a shift to selective engagement **
 * Gventer, 9 ** - Senior Defense Analyst at the RAND Corporation and a former deputy assistant secretary of defense. She served two tours in Iraq, including a year as a senior adviser to General Peter Chiarelli, the operational commander in Iraq in 2006 (Celeste, “False Promise of 'Counterinsurgency'”, 12/1, http://www.rand.org/commentary/2009/12/01/NYT.html)

An effort to conduct … credible U.S. military capable of applying overwhelming force.


 * Advantage 2: counterinsurgency**
 * The war is unwinnable – large troop footprints drive the Pashtuns further towards the Taliban**


 * Fuller, 9** – CIA officer for 25 years, former CIA station chief in Kabul and a former vice-chair of the CIA's National Intelligence Council (Graham, Christian Science Monitor, 12/2, "Obama speech: kicking the can down the road in Afghanistan", lexis)

The "objective" situation in Afghanistan remains … American withdrawal from Afghanistan will prevent exacerbation of the problem.

Galston 10 - Senior Fellow of Governance Studies @ Brookings (William, Senior Fellow of Governance Studies @ Brookings, “A Question of Life and Death: U.S. Policy in Afghanistan,” Brookings, June 15th, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2010/0615_afghanistan_galston.aspx)
 * A large military footprint combined with the perception of an illegitimate government make crushing the Taliban impossible – it can recruit faster than we can kill**

__Are the basic premises of our …and political force in Afghanistan.__


 * Multiple impacts -**

** Akhtar, 10- ** professor of international relations, and a senior analyst & writer. He was the dean of faculty of management, Baluchistan university, and former chairman of International Relations Department, Karachi university (1/26/10, Shameem, “Pakistan’s Instability : The US War Factor,” http://www.islamonline.net/servlet/Satellite?c=Article_C&cid=1262372328640&pagename=Zone-English-Muslim_Affairs/MAELayout#**1)**
 * First – Pakistan. A large counterinsurgency footprint drives insurgents to Pakistan, mobilizes the Pakistani Taliban and will cause Pakistan to collapse**


 * __If it is a war against extremists and … may erupt at any moment, thus destabilizing the state .__**

Pakistan collapse causes global nuclear conflict – draws in China, India and Russia

Pitt, 9**- //a New York Times and internationally bestselling author of two books: "War on Iraq: What Team Bush Doesn't Want You to Know" and "The Greatest Sedition Is Silence." (5/8/09, William, “Unstable Pakistan Threatens the World,”// http://www.arabamericannews.com/news/index.php?mod=article&cat=commentary&article=2183)**




 * But a suicide bomber in Pakistan rammed a car packed with explosives … addressing the situation. So should we all.**

Second – terrorism –

Risk of nuclear terrorism is high – probably an attack will come from al Qaeda by 2013 Hall, 10 **(Mimi, USA Today, “Obama seeks front against nuclear terror”, 4/12, http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2010-04-11-nukesummit_N.htm**


 * WASHINGTON — President Obama is asking … in a terrorist attack" by 2013  .**

Nuclear terrorism causes extinction

Morgan, 9 **- Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin Campus - South Korea (Dennis, Futures, November, “World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race,” Science Direct)**


 * In a remarkable website on nuclear … and suffering in a nuclear winter  .  **

Gradual withdrawal while maintaining a counterterrorism strategy allows more effective US leadership in the war on terror and maximizes US credibility

Chellany, 09 ** - professor of strategic studies at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi (9/14/09, Brahma, Japan Times, “An Advantagous U.S. Exit,” http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20090914bc.html)**


 * When the administration's principal war target … deep-rooted military-mullah alliance. **

Withdrawal of combat troops will immediately turn the population against the Taliban and shore up Afghan government legitimacy

Dorronsoro, 9 -**Visiting Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (January 2009, Gilles, “Focus and Exit: An Alternative Strategy for the Afghan War,” http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/afghan_war-strategy.pdf)**


 * This three-zone strategy is not…. __of Afghanistan’s peripheral regions__**

= =


 * Advantage 3 is the dollar**

COIN collapses the it

Corn, 9 **– Ph.D. from the University of Paris and is a graduate of the U.S. Naval War College, currently on leave from the US State Department (Tony, “Toward a Kilcullen-Biden Plan?**


 * Bounding Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan,” Small Wars Journal, 10/21,**


 * http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2009/10/toward-a-kilcullenbiden-plan/**


 * Just do the math - __with 63,000 troops …__ as advocated by Vice-President Joe Biden.**

Economic leadership prevents economic collapse—leadership preserves resilience

Mandelbaum 2005 **– Professor and Director of the American Foreign Policy Program at Johns Hopkins – 2005 [Michael, The Case for Goliath: How America Acts As the World’s Government in the Twenty-First Century, p. 192-195]**


 * Although the spread of nuclear weapons, with the … __United States would in this way resemble a fleet of cars without gasoline.__**

That goes nuclear without economic leadership

Mandelbaum 2005 **– Professor and Director of the American Foreign Policy Program at Johns Hopkins – 2005 [Michael, The Case for Goliath: How America Acts As the World’s Government in the Twenty-First Century, p. 224]**


 * At best, an American withdrawal …__, of nuclear weapons __.**

= =

Indicts of the counterterrorism option underestimate the size of what the plan leaves intact – it is sufficiently resourced to provide force protection, intelligence gathering, army training and will maintain the support of the local population

Long, 10 ** - assistant professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs (Austin, “Small is Beautiful: The Counterterrorism Option in Afghanistan,” Orbis, Spring 2010, Science Direct)

This insoluble problem is why the counterterrorism option is important. If even a costly effort in …. than any other counterterrorism deployment.