Cotler+&+Rose

For affirmative questions email: brettdcotler@gmail.com For negative questions email: jhrose555@gmail.com =1ac=

Contention 1 is Arctic Leadership--
Scenario 1 is conflict --

Russia is taking aggressive military actions in the Arctic – prefer the most recent evidence
Today the world continues to focus on Moscow’s brazen aggression in Ukraine and its blatant AND act as a rogue actor in the Arctic, as it has elsewhere.
 * Blank and Braun 7-29-14** is a senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington and visiting professor in the department of government at Harvard University (Stephen* and Aurel**, “BLANK & BRAUN: Russia’s dangerous Arctic adventurism,” Washington Times, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/jul/29/blank-braun-russias-dangerous-arctic-adventurism/#ixzz39GbcEmDE)BC

Russian Arctic militarization is expanding rapidly – the lack of ice-capable ships prevents a US response
As the U.S. and E.U. keep a very close AND by entering into a military buildup simply to dominate Russia in the Arctic.
 * Mitchell 14** – Jon Mitchell is an independent author for Foreign Policy Journal, citing Naval Statements and Nicholas Cunningham, an expert in the field (“Russia’s Territorial Ambition and Increased Military Presence in the Arctic” April 23, 2014 []) zabd

Expanding militarization risks conflict among multiple rising Arctic powers
The Arctic, always before on the frigid edges of the international imagination, is AND exploitation of the Arctic “will become a future mission of the navy .”
 * Blank, 14** - Stephen J. Blank is a senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council; served as the Strategic Studies Institute’s expert on the Soviet bloc and the post-Soviet world since 1989. Prior to that he was Associate Professor of Soviet Studies at the Center for Aerospace Doctrine, Research, and Education, Maxwell Air Force Base (Stephen, “Enter Asia: The Arctic Heats Up” World Affairs Journal, March/April, [|http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/enter-asia-arctic-heats)//DH]

Claims of Arctic cooperation don’t account for the decline in U.S. leadership which makes great power war likely
The Arctic in the unipolar moment One of the cornerstones of America's unipolar moment AND the structure are very likely to translate into changes to state security strategies.
 * Murray, 12** – Vice President of Research at the Frontier Centre for Public Policy and an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Alberta. He holds a senior fellowship at the Atlantic Institute for Market Studies, a research fellowship at the University of Calgary’s Centre for Military and Strategic Studies, and a research fellowship at the University of Alberta’s European Union Centre of Excellence.(Robert, “Arctic politics in the emerging multipolar system: challenges and consequences” The Polar Journal, June, Taylor & Francis)//DH

Arctic conflict risks a nuclear confrontation
Wallace & Staples ‘10 – *Professor Emeritus at the University of British Columbia, **President of the Rideau Institute in Ottawa (Michael, Steven, “Ridding the Arctic of Nuclear Weapons: A Task Long Overdue,”) //J.N.E

The fact is, the Arctic is becoming a zone of increased military competition. AND in which nuclear powers find themselves in military confrontation can be taken lightly.

US Russia war is the only scenario for Extinction
A much greater existential risk emerged with the build-up of nuclear arsenals in AND mere preludes to the existential risks that we will encounter in the 21st century
 * Bostrum, 2** - professor of philosophy at Oxford (March, Nick, “Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards,” Journal of Evolution and Technology, http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html)

US Arctic leadership generates __allied cooperation__ sufficient to check Russia
(CNN) -- While much of the world is focused on the Russian AND a safe, secure and prosperous region in which to live and work.
 * Slayton and Rosen 3-14-14** -- research fellow at the Hoover Institution and co-chair of the Hoover Institution's Arctic Security Initiative AND an international and national security lawyer by training, is a senior legal adviser at CNA Corporation (David M.* and Mark E.**, “Another region where the Russian military threatens to dominate the U.S.,” CNN, [])BC

The perception of arctic counterbalancing induces Russian cooperation
The United States devotes much of its diplomatic and military energies to the Middle East AND Congress “to start building infrastructure up there” (Joling and Papp).
 * Dowd 11** – Senior Fellow of the Fraser Institute and Senior Editor of Fraser Insight. In addition to conducting research into defence and security, he has contributed to the Institute’s Economic Freedom of North America Annual Report. Dowd is an adjunct professor at Butler University; was as a founding member of the Sagamore Institute leadership team, where he continues to hold a senior fellow post; and was director of Hudson Institute’s corporate headquarters (Alan, “The Big Chill: Energy Needs Fueling Tensions in the Arctic,” []) zabd

Icebreakers are key to credible US diplomacy that diffuses the risk of conflict
While the other Arctic powers are racing to carve up the region, the U nited AND , the region could erupt in an armed mad dash for its resources.
 * Borgerson 8** -- International Affairs Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (Scott G., “Arctic Meltdown: The Economic and Security Implications of Global Warming,” Foreign Affairs, March/April, [])BC

The plan’s key to __freedom of navigation__ – the Arctic is a vital test case for FON __globally__
Käpylä and Mikkola ’13 – Finnish Institute of International Affairs (Juha, Harri, “The Global Arctic”, August, FIIA BRIE FING PAPER 133) http://www.fiia.fi/assets/publications/bp133.pdf // J.N.E // //Secondly, the US also has a range of security interests in the Arctic.// //AND// the region// would have for the //principle of freedom of navigation in general//.

That’s the litmus test for whether US primacy is sustainable
Attracting international partners to join in the reinvigorated approach is essential and not impossible. AND only across the Taiwan Straits, but also throughout the South China Sea.
 * Kraska, 11 -** Dr. James Kraska is a Senior Fellow in FPRI's Program on National Security. He serves as Mary Derrickson McCurdy Visiting Research Scholar at Duke University Marine Laboratory, where he focuses on international law of the sea and marine policy and governance.(James, __Maritime Power and the Law of the Sea: Expeditionary Operations in World Politics__, p. 411-412)

¶ Assessing the Security Benefits of Deep Engagement ¶ Even if __ deep engagement's __ costs are AND __ disengaged—even as it pushes cooperation toward U.S. preferences. __
 * The impact is global conflict escalation **
 * Brooks, et al, 13 ** [Don't Come Home, America: The Case against Retrenchment Stephen G. Brooks [|__(bio)__], G. John Ikenberry [|__(bio)__] and William C. Wohlforth [|__(bio)__] , Stephen G. Brooks; G. John Ikenberry and William C. Wohlforth STEPHEN G. BROOKS is Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College. G. JOHN IKENBERRY is Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University and Global Eminence Scholar at Kyung Hee University in Seoul. WILLIAM C. WOHLFORTH is Daniel Webster Professor of Government at Dartmouth College, International Security ¶ [|__Volume 37, Number 3, Winter 2012__] , p. Project Muse]

Current reliance on non-US icebreakers puts the entire US commitment to Antarctica in jeopardy
The U.S. inventory of icebreakers relevant to McMurdo resupply operations is effectively AND S. government, preferably an icebreaker //owned and operated by the USCG//.
 * Augustine, 12** - Report of the U.S. Antarctic Program Blue Ribbon Panel; Augustine was the chair of the Panel (Norman, “More and Better Science in Antarctica Through Increased Logistical Effectiveness” July, [|http://www.nsf.gov/od/opp/usap_special_review/usap_brp/rpt/antarctica_07232012.pdf)//DH] USAP = US Antarctic Program

Icebreakers are vital to continual, year-round polar ocean research – that’s vital to adaptation to climate change and ocean acidification – it’s also key to US leadership in the ATS
While polar oceans comprise only about ten percent of global ocean area, they exert AND 2012 and 2013, by the IGNATUYK of the Russian Murmansk Shipping Company.
 * Faulkner, 7/23/14** – Division Director of Polar Programs at the National Science Foundation (Kelly, Congressional Testimony, “U.S. POLICY IN THE ARCTIC”, Proquest Congressional)//DH

Warming risks extinction
Costello 11 –, Anthony, Institute for Global Health, University College London, Mark Maslin, Department of Geography, University College London, Hugh Montgomery, Institute for Human Health and Performance, University College London, Anne M. Johnson, Institute for Global Health, University College London, Paul Ekins, Energy Institute, University College London [“Global health and climate change: moving from denial and catastrophic fatalism to positive action” May 2011 vol. 369 no. 1942 1866-1882 Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society] Advocacy about the health consequences will ensure that climate change is a high priority. AND __as dissipation of metabolic heat becomes impossible,__ therefore __making__ many __environments uninhabitable.__

__Major gaps exist in our current scientific understanding, limiting our ability to forecast the__ __AND__ __) to__ **__increase ecosystem resiliency__** as well as local-scale mitigation efforts.
 * Research-driven adaptation strategies build in __resilience__ to prevent total ecosystem collapse **
 * Doney, 8 -** Senior Scientist Marine Chemistry & Geochemistry Department Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (Scott, **“**The Federal Ocean Acidification Research and Monitoring Act: H.R. 4174” Written testimony presented to the Committee on Science and Technology, Subcommittee on Energy and Environment, United States House of Representatives6/5, []

1ac – making snowballs

 * Contention 3 is solvency -- **

Building two new icebreakers is sufficient for the US reclaim polar leadership
NRC 7 – working arm of the United States National Academies, which produces reports that shape policies, inform public opinion, and advance the pursuit of science, engineering, and medicine (National Research Council, “Polar Icebreakers in a Changing World: An Assessment of US Needs,” []) mj CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS The committee finds that both operations and maintenance of the polar icebreaker AND Arctic. Other agencies should reimburse incremental costs associated with directed mission tasking.

The plan immediately retrofits the Polar Sea as a stopgap solution while new Icebreakers are being built
[])//DH// //WASHINGTON — The U.S. Coast Guard’s No. 2 commander said refurbishing// // AND // // to act quickly .// “That window is now//,” he said.//
 * Song, 14** (Kyung, The Seattle Times, “Coast Guard makes case to refurbish idled icebreaker” 6/18

//** Current heavy polar icebreakers are degrading – it threatens U.S. Arctic leadership **// //** Koren 7/11 ** – Staff Writer for National Journal (Marina, “What Happened to America's Most Important Arctic Ships?”, [])// J.N.E The U.S. __Coast Guard__ is facing a dilemma at the North Pole AND __A young and capable fleet of icebreakers would certainly come in handy then.__ =***__Neg__ Stuff***=

__1NC's__ 1. T its, noaa pic, land cp, noaa da 2. T its, china cp, dredging cp, china wind, oil turns on case 3. FW, heg da, frontier k, lovecraft pic 4. T non military, military cp, exim ptx, consumption k, oil da 5. Oil da, china soft power, china cp, cap k, t extraction, biod turn on case 6. Noaa da, exim ptx, china aquaculture da, t its, itq cp 7. China cp, china aquaculture da, exim ptx, anthro k 8. Immigration ptx, t resource extraction, nasa tradeoff, anthro k 9. Arctic pic, adv cp, t its, immigration ptx 10. T its, warming reps k, immigration ptx, adv cp, china coal da on case

__2NR's__ 1. Noaa pic + budget da vs. aquaculture 2. Dredging cp, china tradeoff + oil turns vs. wind 3. FW vs. Fear of Oceans 4. Military cp + exim ptx vs. Otec 5. Cap k vs. Otec 6. China aquaculture da vs. aquaculture 7. China cp + aquaculture da vs. aquaculture 8. Nasa da vs. ssd 9. Politics + adv cp vs. natural gas 10. China coal da + adv cp vs. natural gas

__R1 vs. nuclear shipping __ 1NC= tria ptx, russia oil da, adv cp, t its, t development, manufacturing turn on prices Block= adv cp, oil da, case, t its, t development 2NR= t its, t development