Mikaela+Appleby+and+Jax+Rounds

1nc's: Elections (warming, prolif, or econ collapse) Japan DA Xi Good/Bad Consult Japan CP Steel QPQ CP Japan Joins AIIB CP Cofinacing with AIIB CP Prompt Global Strike CP T QPQ Spanos Co2 Ag
 * Neg**

2nr's: Elections Japan DA CO2 Ag Steel QPQ CP PGS CP

contact: applebymikaela@gmail.com
 * Aff**


 * Taiwan arm sales v1**

=1ac=

Risk of war is growing in the Taiwan strait- The PRC is unsatisfied with Tsai's promises of sticking to the status quo on ambiguous relations—greater reassurances are necessary to preserve relations
Tsai Ing-wen's Policy toward China During the presidential campaign, Tsai Ing- AND the term "cross-Strait" instead of China-Taiwan.11
 * Glaser 2016** (Bonnie, Senior Adviser for Asia and Director, China Power Project, she is concomitantly a non-resident fellow with the Lowy Institute in Sydney, a senior associate with CSIS Pacific Forum and a consultant for the U.S. government on East Asia, prior she served as a consultant for various U.S. government offices, including the Departments of Defense and State, "Prospects for Cross-Strait Relations as Tsai Ing-wen Assumes the Presidency in Taiwan," April, 2016, A Report of the CSIS CHINA POWER PROJECT, Center for Strategic and International Studies, https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/160418_Glaser_ProspectsCrossStraitRelations_Web.pdf, silbs)

And the recent accidental launch is contributing to increasingly tense China-Taiwan relations
(CNN)A Taiwan warship mistakenly launched a supersonic "aircraft carrier killer" AND , whose party has traditionally leaned in favor of formal independence from China.
 * Guerrero 7/1**, (Kay, 7/1/16, Taiwan accidentally launches missile toward China, kills fishing boat captain, CNN, http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/01/asia/taiwan-fires-missile-on-china/index.html)//kap

Arms sales ensure regional instability and make conflict inevitable
U.S. arms sales to Taiwan not only directly harm China's essential interest AND can the China-US relationship develop in a stable and smooth manner.
 * An 13** (Xiao, This article was first published in Chinese and translated by Chen Boyuan, US' arms sales to Taiwan impede Sino-US relationship, http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2013-01/17/content_27716480.htm) msm

Economic and cultural ties don't check – poor political relations outweigh
Taiwan and China have the most unique bilateral relationship in the world. The two AND conflict between the two sides threatens to spillback, negatively effecting economic relations.
 * Wen-cheng '5**
 * (Lin Wen-cheng, Dean of Social Sciences at National Sun Yat-sen University and Executive Director of the Institute for National Policy Research in Taiwan, December 2005, "Cross-strait Confidence Building Measures," p. 1, JH)**

Miscalculation in the strait is the most probable cause of nuclear war – strategic mistrust makes escalation likely
Lowther, 13 – citing a CSIS report (William, Tapei Times, 3/16, "Taiwan could spark nuclear war: report," http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2013/03/16/2003557211) Taiwan is the most likely potential crisis that could trigger a nuclear war between China AND arsenals, such a conflict would be tremendously dangerous and quite possibly devastating."

Nuclear war between the US and China leads to planetary extinction
(Lawrence S. Wittner, Emeritus Professor of History at the State University of New York at Albany, holds a Ph.D. in History from Columbia University, 2011"Is a Nuclear War with China Possible?," Huntington News, November 28th, Available Online at http://www.huntingtonnews.net/14446) While nuclear weapons exist, there remains a danger that they will be used. AND that of the world, they should be working to encourage these policies.
 * Wittner 11**

The aff solves miscalculation- a reduction in arms sales allows adverse impacts to be avoided
Swaine is described by Carnegie as "one of the most prominent American analysts in AND adverse outcomes, including a resort to nuclear weapons, could be avoided.
 * Lowther 15**- William, staff writer, Beijing 'too passive' over Taiwan: Chinese analysts, (http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2015/04/25/2003616749) JB

First, Chinese calculations have changed – they will retaliate to future U.S. arms sales with sanctions
China's recent threat to impose sanctions on U.S. defense companies that sell AND business in China, according to data compiled last year by Factset Research.
 * Harrell 16** Peter, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security and former deputy assistant secretary of state for counter-threat finance and sanctions, China threatens sanctions against U.S. companies: Is this the future?, (http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2016/01/26/china-threatens-sanctions-against-u-s-companies-is-this-the-future/) JB

Arms sales result in Chinese sanctions vs. Boeing – which collapses the company – even if they don't use sanctions, they'll shift business which still triggers the impact
However the continuous sales to Taiwan by the US have been much to the chagrin AND decided by the US government […] It's a governmentto-government issue".50
 * Chesson 11** (Roy David, currently a Foreign Area Officer in the US Navy. BS in Physics from the University of Wisconsin, and MA degree in Security Studies (East Asian) from the Naval Post Graduate School and an MA degree in Engineering Management from Old Dominion University, "How China could Affect the Future of US Defense Corporations," pg online @ https://web.stanford.edu/group/sjeaa/journal111/China3.pdf //um-ef)

Boeing is the key to U.S. Aerospace – that's key to US manufacturing
The large commercial jet aviation market is a duopoly shared by the U.S AND wants to become the world's third-largest aircraft manufacturer by 2015.
 * Platzer '9** (Michaela D. Platzer, Specialist in Industrial Organization and Business, "U.S. Aerospace Manufacturing: Industry Overview and Prospects," pg online @ https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R40967.pdf //um-ef)

Manufacturing capabilities key to tech necessary for deterrence – prevents conflict
The current wave of defense cuts is also different than past defense budget reductions in AND civilian and military export opportunities for the United States in a globalized marketplace.
 * O'Hanlon et al 12** (Mackenzie Eaglen, American Enterprise Institute Rebecca Grant, IRIS Research Robert P. Haffa, Haffa Defense Consulting Michael O'Hanlon, The Brookings Institution Peter W. Singer, The Brookings Institution Martin Sullivan, Commonwealth Consulting Barry Watts, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments "The Arsenal of Democracy and How to Preserve It: Key Issues in Defense Industrial Policy January 2012," pg online @ http://www.brookings.edu//media/research/files/papers/2012/1/26%20defense%20industrial%20base/0126_defense_industrial_base_ohanlon //um-ef)

Tensions high now –absent the plan nationalistic tensions rise and increase the risk of retaliation
The United States and China have been wrestling over the issue of arms sales to AND Washington and Beijing must work together to find ways to tackle the challenges.
 * Feng 12** (Zhu Feng is a professor in the School of International Studies and the deputy director of the Center for International and Strategic Studies at Beijing University, "What the U.S. Needs to Realize About China's Nationalism," pg online @ http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2011/09/23/should-the-us-continue-selling-arms-to-taiwan/what-the-us-needs-to-realize-about-chinas-nationalism //um-ef)

Nationalism controls the CCP—the public will not tolerate signs of weakness and will respond violently - collapses the CCP
Analysts differ about the extent to which autonomous (non-state-directed) AND ensured. Thus, the Politburo must pay close heed to PLA views.
 * Garver 2016** (John, is Emertius Professor in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology. He specializes in China's foreign relations. He served for many years on a the editorial boards of the journals China Quarterly, Journal of Contemporary China, Issues and Studies, and Asian Security. He is a member of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, has testified before the U.S. Congress, and is the author of twelve books and seventy–five refereed articles and book chapters dealing with China 's foreign relations, "China's Quest: the History of the Foreign Relations of the People's Republic of China," Chapter 28, "China's Quest for Modernity and the Tides of World History," Oxford University Press, 2016, silbs)

That triggers multiple scenarios for nuclear conflict
Regional Security There are a number of areas of concern among China's immediate regional neighbors AND investment (FDI) into developing countries, primarily on the African continent.
 * Perkinson 12** (Jessica, MA International Affairs, American University, frmr Program Coordinator Center for Asian Studies, American University, "The Potential for Instability in the PRC: How the Doomsday Theory Misses the Mark," pg online @ http://aladinrc.wrlc.org/bitstream/handle/1961/10330/Perkinson_american_0008N_10238display.pdf?sequence=1 //um-ef)

Plan
====The United States federal government should offer to the People's Republic of China (PRC) a staged agreement consisting of restrictions on United States arms sales in return for verifiable limit on PRC military production and deployment relevant to the Republic of China (ROC) and a promise that the PRC will not use force against the ROC.====

Confidence building measures with China and Taiwan over arms sales and PLA military deployments lead to long-lasting cross-strait dialogue
Swaine 11- Michael, expert in China and East Asian security studies and a Senior Associate in the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, America's Challenge: Engaging a Rising China in the Twenty-First Century, (Washington: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) JB Regarding Washington's political and security relations with Taiwan, as indicated in chapter 2 despite AND Washington or Beijing to give up its military deployments in other areas.32

The plan solves for every alt cause to effective relations
The feasibility and parameters of such an agreement could be initially explored via an authorized AND the most advanced and "high-impact" technologies and weapons systems.
 * Swaine 11**- Michael, expert in China and East Asian security studies and a Senior Associate in the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, America's Challenge: Engaging a Rising China in the Twenty-First Century, (Washington: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) JB

Only mutual assurances solve - guarantees stability in the region and prosperous relations
In general, true balance-of-power environments can at least potentially increase AND , including any resort to nuclear weapons, would almost certainly be avoided.
 * Swaine 15** (Michael, "Beyond American Predominance in the Western Pacific: The Need for a Stable U.S.-China Balance of Power," pg online @ http://carnegieendowment.org/2015/04/20/beyond-american-predominance-in-western-pacific-need-for-stable-u.s.-china-balance-of-power/i7gi //um-ef)


 * Taiwan arm sales v2**

=1ac=

Risk of war is growing in the Taiwan strait- The PRC is unsatisfied with Tsai's promises of sticking to the status quo on ambiguous relations—greater reassurances are necessary to preserve relations
Tsai Ing-wen's Policy toward China During the presidential campaign, Tsai Ing- AND the term "cross-Strait" instead of China-Taiwan.11
 * Glaser 2016** (Bonnie, Senior Adviser for Asia and Director, China Power Project, she is concomitantly a non-resident fellow with the Lowy Institute in Sydney, a senior associate with CSIS Pacific Forum and a consultant for the U.S. government on East Asia, prior she served as a consultant for various U.S. government offices, including the Departments of Defense and State, "Prospects for Cross-Strait Relations as Tsai Ing-wen Assumes the Presidency in Taiwan," April, 2016, A Report of the CSIS CHINA POWER PROJECT, Center for Strategic and International Studies, https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/160418_Glaser_ProspectsCrossStraitRelations_Web.pdf, silbs)

And the recent accidental launch is contributing to increasingly tense China-Taiwan relations
(CNN)A Taiwan warship mistakenly launched a supersonic "aircraft carrier killer" AND , whose party has traditionally leaned in favor of formal independence from China.
 * Guerrero 7/1**, (Kay, 7/1/16, Taiwan accidentally launches missile toward China, kills fishing boat captain, CNN, http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/01/asia/taiwan-fires-missile-on-china/index.html)//kap

Arms sales ensure regional instability and make conflict inevitable
U.S. arms sales to Taiwan not only directly harm China's essential interest AND can the China-US relationship develop in a stable and smooth manner.
 * An 13 **(Xiao, This article was first published in Chinese and translated by Chen Boyuan, US' arms sales to Taiwan impede Sino-US relationship, http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2013-01/17/content_27716480.htm) msm

Economic and cultural ties don't check – poor political relations outweigh
Taiwan and China have the most unique bilateral relationship in the world. The two AND conflict between the two sides threatens to spillback, negatively effecting economic relations.
 * Wen-cheng '5**
 * (Lin Wen-cheng, Dean of Social Sciences at National Sun Yat-sen University and Executive Director of the Institute for National Policy Research in Taiwan, December 2005, "Cross-strait Confidence Building Measures," p. 1, JH)**

Miscalculation in the strait is the most probable cause of nuclear war – strategic mistrust makes escalation likely
Lowther, 13 – citing a CSIS report (William, Tapei Times, 3/16, "Taiwan could spark nuclear war: report," http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2013/03/16/2003557211) Taiwan is the most likely potential crisis that could trigger a nuclear war between China AND arsenals, such a conflict would be tremendously dangerous and quite possibly devastating."

Nuclear war between the US and China leads to planetary extinction
(Lawrence S. Wittner, Emeritus Professor of History at the State University of New York at Albany, holds a Ph.D. in History from Columbia University, 2011"Is a Nuclear War with China Possible?," Huntington News, November 28th, Available Online at http://www.huntingtonnews.net/14446) While nuclear weapons exist, there remains a danger that they will be used. AND that of the world, they should be working to encourage these policies.
 * Wittner 11**

That triggers multiple scenarios for nuclear conflict
Regional Security There are a number of areas of concern among China's immediate regional neighbors AND investment (FDI) into developing countries, primarily on the African continent.
 * Perkinson 12 **(Jessica, MA International Affairs, American University, frmr Program Coordinator Center for Asian Studies, American University, "The Potential for Instability in the PRC: How the Doomsday Theory Misses the Mark," pg online @ http://aladinrc.wrlc.org/bitstream/handle/1961/10330/Perkinson_american_0008N_10238display.pdf?sequence=1 //um-ef)

The aff solves miscalculation- a reduction in arms sales allows adverse impacts to be avoided
Swaine is described by Carnegie as "one of the most prominent American analysts in AND adverse outcomes, including a resort to nuclear weapons, could be avoided.
 * Lowther 15**- William, staff writer, Beijing 'too passive' over Taiwan: Chinese analysts, (http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2015/04/25/2003616749) JB

Tensions high now –absent the plan nationalistic tensions rise and increase the risk of retaliation
The United States and China have been wrestling over the issue of arms sales to AND Washington and Beijing must work together to find ways to tackle the challenges.
 * Feng 12 **(Zhu Feng is a professor in the School of International Studies and the deputy director of the Center for International and Strategic Studies at Beijing University, "What the U.S. Needs to Realize About China's Nationalism," pg online @ http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2011/09/23/should-the-us-continue-selling-arms-to-taiwan/what-the-us-needs-to-realize-about-chinas-nationalism //um-ef)

Nationalism controls the CCP—the public will not tolerate signs of weakness and will respond violently - collapses the CCP
Analysts differ about the extent to which autonomous (non-state-directed) AND ensured. Thus, the Politburo must pay close heed to PLA views.
 * Garver 2016** (John, is Emertius Professor in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology. He specializes in China's foreign relations. He served for many years on a the editorial boards of the journals China Quarterly, Journal of Contemporary China, Issues and Studies, and Asian Security. He is a member of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, has testified before the U.S. Congress, and is the author of twelve books and seventy–five refereed articles and book chapters dealing with China 's foreign relations, "China's Quest: the History of the Foreign Relations of the People's Republic of China," Chapter 28, "China's Quest for Modernity and the Tides of World History," Oxford University Press, 2016, silbs)

Plan
====The United States federal government should offer to the People's Republic of China (PRC) a staged agreement consisting of restrictions on United States arms sales in return for verifiable limit on PRC military production and deployment relevant to the Republic of China (ROC) and a promise that the PRC will not use force against the ROC. ====

Contention 2 – Solvency
====Accounting for Taiwanese Identity is necessary to provide a functional strategy for Taiwan survival – ONLY a strategy that places THE STATE at the center of analysis can be 'Ethical' in the context of Taiwanese lives==== Sterling-Folker and Shinko, 05 – (Jennifer [the Alan R. Bennett Honors Professor of Political Science at the University of Connecticut] Rosemary E. [PhD in international relations theory and political theory from the University of Connecticut, Millennium - Journal of International Studies], "Discourses of Power: Traversing the Realist-Postmodern Divide", vol. 33 no. 3 pages 637-664, June 2005, http://mil.sagepub.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/content/33/3/637.full.pdf+html, 7/10/16)JRO It is precisely the equation between the state and order that leads realism, in AND surer way to marginalise oneself from the sites of and exercise of power.

Rejecting the state rollsback decades of political progress - Taiwanese history checks that radicalism works best from within
Sterling-Folker and Shinko, 05 –(Jennifer [the Alan R. Bennett Honors Professor of Political Science at the University of Connecticut] Rosemary E. [PhD in international relations theory and political theory from the University of Connecticut, Millennium - Journal of International Studies], "Discourses of Power: Traversing the Realist-Postmodern Divide", vol. 33 no. 3 pages 637-664, June 2005, http://mil.sagepub.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/content/33/3/637.full.pdf+html, 7/10/16)JRO It was the Taiwanese desire to embrace statehood and the parameters of the Westphalian system AND namely, history), and what remains the same (namely, structure).

Realism proves the US and China are mutually using Taiwan to counterbalance the other – squo comprised of deterrent strategic calculations
Sterling-Folker and Shinko, 05 –(Jennifer [the Alan R. Bennett Honors Professor of Political Science at the University of Connecticut] Rosemary E. [PhD in international relations theory and political theory from the University of Connecticut, Millennium - Journal of International Studies], "Discourses of Power: Traversing the Realist-Postmodern Divide", vol. 33 no. 3 pages 637-664, June 2005, http://mil.sagepub.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/content/33/3/637.full.pdf+html, 7/10/16)JRO What does it mean to say 'the China-Taiwan relationship'? For a AND . . . where two big nuclear powers could come into conflict'.18

Realism is how states interact – governmental officials are the ones who designate each other as malicious – studying those structures is critical to resolving tensions
Sterling-Folker and Shinko, 05 –(Jennifer [the Alan R. Bennett Honors Professor of Political Science at the University of Connecticut] Rosemary E. [PhD in international relations theory and political theory from the University of Connecticut, Millennium - Journal of International Studies], "Discourses of Power: Traversing the Realist-Postmodern Divide", vol. 33 no. 3 pages 637-664, June 2005, http://mil.sagepub.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/content/33/3/637.full.pdf+html, 7/10/16)JRO Realism is What States Do It is not that change is not possible in realism AND so doing, effect the politics and behavior of the other states involved?

Confidence building measures with China and Taiwan over arms sales and PLA military deployments lead to long-lasting cross-strait dialogue
Swaine 11- Michael, expert in China and East Asian security studies and a Senior Associate in the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, America's Challenge: Engaging a Rising China in the Twenty-First Century, (Washington: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) JB Regarding Washington's political and security relations with Taiwan, as indicated in chapter 2 despite AND Washington or Beijing to give up its military deployments in other areas.32

The plan solves for every alt cause to effective relations
The feasibility and parameters of such an agreement could be initially explored via an authorized AND the most advanced and "high-impact" technologies and weapons systems.
 * Swaine 11**- Michael, expert in China and East Asian security studies and a Senior Associate in the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, America's Challenge: Engaging a Rising China in the Twenty-First Century, (Washington: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) JB

Only mutual assurances solve - guarantees stability in the region and prosperous relations
In general, true balance-of-power environments can at least potentially increase AND , including any resort to nuclear weapons, would almost certainly be avoided.
 * Swaine 15 **(Michael, "Beyond American Predominance in the Western Pacific: The Need for a Stable U.S.-China Balance of Power," pg online @ http://carnegieendowment.org/2015/04/20/beyond-american-predominance-in-western-pacific-need-for-stable-u.s.-china-balance-of-power/i7gi //um-ef)