Justin+Hsu+and+James+Henderson

Past 2nrs: Japan Pan

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Plan
The United States federal government should offer to the People's Republic of China a staged framework agreement consisting of restrictions on United States arms sales to The Republic of China in return for verifiable limits on Chinese military production and deployments relevant to the island, and credible assurances by the People's Republic of China that it would not use force against the Republic of China

Relations
====The US and China are locked an action-reaction cycle of hostility. Negotiating a staged Framework Agreement will de-escalate tensions and create a sustainable path towards relations and cooperation on global existential threats==== Gross, 13 - adjunct fellow of Pacific Forum CSIS, former Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for International Security Affairs in the Department of State, former Counselor of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (Donald, The China Fallacy: How the U.S. Can Benefit from China's Rise and Avoid Another Cold War, p. 152-155 To overcome the structural weaknesses in U.S.-China relations—which could AND conflict U.S. and Chinese military operations and avoid accidental confrontations.

Taiwan is the most important starting point to address strategic distrust – plan is the vital internal link to broader, sustainable cooperation
Glaser, 15 - Charles L Glaser is a professor in the Elliott School of International Affairs and the Department of Political Science at George Washington University. He is also a fellow in the Kissinger Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars ("A U.S.-China Grand Bargain?" International Security, Vol. 39, No. 4 (Spring 2015), pp. 49–90, doi:10.1162/ISEC_a_00199 More important, however, is that focusing on the quality of current crossstrait relations AND of cooperation on other issues and reduce the probability of competition and conflict.

====Nationalism controls the CCP's response to foreign actions—the public will not tolerate signs of weakness and will respond violently to attacks on their national identity – new arms sales risk T-Bill Sell-off or Coup de-tat==== Analysts differ about the extent to which autonomous (non-state-directed) AND ensured. Thus, the Politburo must pay close heed to PLA views.
 * Garver 2016** (John, is Emertius Professor in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology. He specializes in China's foreign relations. He served for many years on a the editorial boards of the journals China Quarterly, Journal of Contemporary China, Issues and Studies, and Asian Security. He is a member of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, has testified before the U.S. Congress, and is the author of twelve books and seventy–five refereed articles and book chapters dealing with China 's foreign relations, "China's Quest: the History of the Foreign Relations of the People's Republic of China," Chapter 28, "China's Quest for Modernity and the Tides of World History," Oxford University Press, 2016, silbs)

That triggers multiple scenarios for nuclear conflict
Regional Security There are a number of areas of concern among China's immediate regional neighbors AND investment (FDI) into developing countries, primarily on the African continent.
 * Perkinson 12**
 * (Jessica, MA International Affairs, American University, frmr Program Coordinator Center for Asian Studies, American University, "The Potential for Instability in the PRC: How the Doomsday Theory Misses the Mark," pg online @ http://aladinrc.wrlc.org/bitstream/handle/1961/10330/Perkinson_american_0008N_10238display.pdf?sequence=1 //um-ef)**

A nuclear war on the peninsula would kill millions, involve massive amounts of fallout, and risk escalation

 * Mount 2015** - Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relation

Adam, The Strategic Logic of Nuclear Restraint, Survival: Global Politics and Strategy Volume 57, Issue 4, 2015, p. 53-76 As things stand today, the most plausible scenario for US nuclear use is in AND neighbouring countries. An invasion of North Korea would be all but impossible.

Offering to curb arms sales is the key internal link to resolving tensions over Taiwan and greater US-China cooperation – spills over to broader arms reductions in the region
There are some in the US and Chinese governments who exhibit symptoms that James C AND in the Taiwan Strait, but in the entire western Pacific, too.
 * Blanchard and Shen 15 (Jean-Marc F. Blanchard is an Assistant Dean for International Cooperation and Exchange at Shanghai Jiaotong University, Simon Shen is** the **Master of Global Political Studies at China University, Hong Kong, 1-31-15, Conflict and cooperation in Sino-US relations: change and continuity, causes and cures, pp. 102-104 // PD)**

The DPP's election means Taiwan is moving towards de jure independence with US backing
Yin, 6/8/16 - Yin Chengde is a research fellow of China Foundation for International Studies ("Time for US to Change Its Taiwan Policy" http://www.chinausfocus.com/political-social-development/time-for-us-to-change-its-taiwan-policy/ The pro-independence DPP has returned to power in Taiwan. Despite repeated warnings AND of the Taiwan Strait and for the benefit of the US itself too.

This enraged China which just ended relations with Taiwan
Tiezzi, 6/26/16 - Shannon Tiezzi is Editor at The Diplomat. Her main focus is on China, and she writes on China's foreign relations, domestic politics, and economy. Shannon previously served as a research associate at the U.S.-China Policy Foundation ("Did China Just Kill Cross-Strait Relations?" The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2016/06/did-china-just-kill-cross-strait-relations/ Well before Taiwan held its elections on January 20, Beijing made it clear that AND more damage done to cross-strait relations than either side can fix.

Tensions are high now and resolving Taiwan is key to multilateralism in Asia
Daniele Ermito 7/14 ("Tsai Administration Faces New Tensions With Beijing"; 2016;Foreign Policy Association; http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2016/07/14/tsai-administration-tensions-beijing/)//pk Tensions between Taipei and Beijing have risen again after China announced the decision to suspend AND confrontation with Beijing, in a region whose security architecture remains dangerously unsteady.

Miscalculation in the strait is the most probable cause of nuclear war – strategic mistrust makes escalation likely
Lowther, 13 – citing a CSIS report (William, Tapei Times, 3/16, "Taiwan could spark nuclear war: report," http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2013/03/16/2003557211) Taiwan is the most likely potential crisis that could trigger a nuclear war between China AND arsenals, such a conflict would be tremendously dangerous and quite possibly devastating. "

Nationalist pressure and nuclear insecurity make the risk of war high and nuclear escalation probable
Glaser, 15 - Charles L Glaser is a professor in the Elliott School of International Affairs and the Department of Political Science at George Washington University. He is also a fellow in the Kissinger Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars ("A U.S.-China Grand Bargain?" International Security, Vol. 39, No. 4 (Spring 2015), pp. 49–90, doi:10.1162/ISEC_a_00199 Although a number of regional sovereignty and maritime disputes have the potential to sour the AND Party] is finding it increasingly difficult to justify its weak responses ."67

US-China conflict over Taiwan goes nuclear
Military power was the most important factor in deciding the outcome of war in traditional AND can hardly afford to commit all forces to the cross-strait conflict.
 * Hu 3/9/16-** Professor in Department of Government and Politics at Wagner College NY, Specializing in comparative and international politics in East Asia. Previous research fellow at the Institute of World Economy and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and a research assistant at the Washington-based US Institute of Peace. (Shaohua, "A framework for analysis of national interest: United States policy toward Taiwan," 144-167, Contemporary Security Policy, 3/9/16, Taylor and Francis Online)//DK

US-China nuclear war over Taiwan likely now – mutually assured destruction isn't factored into PRC strategy
For the United States and its allies and partners in Asia, China's aggressive efforts AND unprepared for a situation that escalates beyond its ability to prevent a catastrophe.
 * Littlefield and Lowther 15**, Alex Littlefield is Senior Editor at Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, Adam Lowther is a Research Professor at the Air Force Research Institute (AFRI) at Maxwell Air Force Base, (8/11/15, Taiwan and the Prospects for War Between China and America, The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/taiwan-and-the-prospects-for-war-between-china-and-america/)//kap

Reducing arms sales to Taiwan facilitates dialogue between China, Taiwan, and the US which would lower the possibility of conflict
Swaine 03- Michael, expert in China and East Asian security studies and a Senior Associate in the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, China, Reverse Course? The Fragile Turnaround in U.S.–China Relations, (http://carnegieendowment.org/files/Policybrief22.pdf) JB The Bush administration and Congress must recognize that, despite the current improvement in relations AND relations. This potential opening should be fully explored by the Bush administration.

The plan solves relations —- single largest setback of the squo
Since ancient times, Taiwan has been the territory of China. Oddly enough, AND flourish on a solid basis in the peaceful environment across the Taiwan Straits.
 * Zurong 13 (Wu Zurong, Research Fellow, China Foundation For Int'L Studies, 4-2-2013, "Is it Time to Stop Arms Sales to Taiwan?," US-China Focus,** http://www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/is-it-time-to-stop-arms-sales-to-taiwan/ **// PD)**

The plan decreases Chinese nationalist pressure and removes the primary source of Chinese insecurity
Simply put, the grand bargain proponents argue that there might be certain areas, AND , still appears to retain a considerable degree of desirability and feasibility.4
 * Chaudhary 15 –** Research Associate, National Maritime Foundation (NMF), New Delhi; Masters Degree of Conflict Analysis & Peace-building (Rana Divyank, "China-US 'Grand Bargain': India's Future Stakes in Great Power Peace," National Maritime Foundation, July 2015, reposted at https://inkandire.wordpress.com/2015/10/07/china-us-grand-bargain-indias-future-stakes-in-great-power-peace/)\\BPS

====US CBMs with China and Taiwan over US arms sales and PLA military deployments would lead to greater stability in the region by getting rid of the ineffective status quo policies and increasing trust among nations which leads to effective and long-lasting cross-strait dialogue==== Swaine 11- Michael, expert in China and East Asian security studies and a Senior Associate in the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, America's Challenge: Engaging a Rising China in the Twenty-First Century, ( Washington: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) JB Regarding Washington's political and security relations with Taiwan, as indicated in chapter 2 despite AND Washington or Beijing to give up its military deployments in other areas .32

The plan solves for all possible alt causes to effective cross-strait relations and confidence building measures
Swaine 11- Michael, expert in China and East Asian security studies and a Senior Associate in the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, America's Challenge: Engaging a Rising China in the Twenty-First Century, ( Washington: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) JB The feasibility and parameters of such an agreement could be initially explored via an authorized AND the most advanced and "high-impact" technologies and weapons systems.