Joe+Hamilton+and+Rui+Jin

====The United States Federal Government should offer to support and pursue full member status in the Arctic Council for China if China agrees to participate in bilateral cooperative agreements regarding Arctic scientific research, environmental monitoring and environmental policy issues.====
 * 1AC Shell**

China won't back Arctic warming initiatives, kills broader US-China warming cooperation – supporting Beijing's Arctic status is key
On Sunday and Monday, foreign ministers and other international leaders met in Anchorage, AND Paris summit, and for U.S.-China cooperation in general.
 * Tiezzi, 15**—Shannon, Editor at The Diplomat, previously served as a research associate at the U.S.-China Policy Foundation, MA @ Harvard, also studied at Tsinghua University in Beijing. "Why Did China Opt Out of the Arctic Climate Change Statement?" The Diplomat, Sept 1, http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/why-did-china-opt-out-of-the-arctic-climate-change-statement/ —br

Cooperation is on the brink – China's carefully assessing US signals of commitment
The Supreme Court's surprise decision Tuesday to halt the carrying out of President Obama's climate AND . Then President George W. Bush pulled the United States out entirely.
 * Davenport, 16**—Coral, covers energy and climate change policy at The New York Times, previously a fellow with the Metcalf Institute for Marine and Environmental Reporting and covered energy and the environment for National Journal, Politico, and Congressional Quarterly. "Supreme Court's Blow to Emissions Efforts May Imperil Paris Climate Accord," New York Times (NYT), Feb 10, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/11/us/politics/carbon-emissions-paris-climate-accord.html —br

Only the plan can revive cooperation – it spurs highly-visible, lasting change to combat warming
Fifth, joint Arctic marine research is an arena with much promise. Joint oceanographic AND within their already existing dialogue and in international organizations including the Arctic Council.
 * Slayton and Brigham, 15**—David Slayton is research fellow, co-chair and executive director of the Arctic Security Initiative at Stanford University's Hoover Institution. Lawson W. Brigham is distinguished professor of geography and Arctic policy at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, a fellow at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy's Center for Arctic Study & Policy, and a member of Hoover's Arctic Security Initiative. "Strengthen Arctic cooperation between the US and China," Aug 27, Alaska Dispatch News (ADN), http://www.adn.com/article/20150827/strengthen-arctic-cooperation-between-us-and-china —br

The China-U.S. relationship is a daily and recurring, sometimes AND , World Meteorological Organization, and International Hydrographic Organization, among other institutions.
 * ====Acting now is key to reviving US-China Arctic cooperation – it's try or die ====**
 * Slayton and Brigham, 15**—David Slayton is research fellow, co-chair and executive director of the Arctic Security Initiative at Stanford University's Hoover Institution. Lawson W. Brigham is distinguished professor of geography and Arctic policy at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, a fellow at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy's Center for Arctic Study & Policy, and a member of Hoover's Arctic Security Initiative. "Strengthen Arctic cooperation between the US and China," Aug 27, Alaska Dispatch News (ADN), http://www.adn.com/article/20150827/strengthen-arctic-cooperation-between-us-and-china —br

Arctic cooperation is vital to combatting warming – it's the epicenter of wider US-China climate efforts
Five key areas of cooperation can enhance Arctic cooperation between the U.S. AND the linkages of the polar regions to global change is another fruitful course ahead
 * Slayton and Brigham, 15**—David Slayton is research fellow, co-chair and executive director of the Arctic Security Initiative at Stanford University's Hoover Institution. Lawson W. Brigham is distinguished professor of geography and Arctic policy at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, a fellow at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy's Center for Arctic Study & Policy, and a member of Hoover's Arctic Security Initiative. "Strengthen Arctic cooperation between the US and China," Aug 27, Alaska Dispatch News (ADN), http://www.adn.com/article/20150827/strengthen-arctic-cooperation-between-us-and-china —br

US-China cooperation on warming is key – they're the two largest emitters and drive multilateral action – renewed cooperation is vital
The Paris Summit in December 2015 is being seen as the "last chance" AND government retreats from efforts to curb emissions in favor of stabilizing economic growth.
 * Hongzhou, 15**—Zhang, Associate Research Fellow with the China Programme @ S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) at Nanyang Technological University (Singapore). "China-US Climate Change Cooperation: Beyond Energy," The Diplomat, Oct 13, http://thediplomat.com/2015/10/china-us-climate-change-cooperation-beyond-energy/ —br

Warming is real, anthropogenic, and threatens extinction
Although most of us worry about other things, climate scientists have become increasingly worried AND the whole world to replace dirty energy with clean as soon as possible.
 * Griffin, 15 –** Professor of Philosophy at Claremont, David, "The climate is ruined. So can civilization even survive?", 4-14, http://www.cnn.com/2015/01/14/opinion/co2-crisis-griffin/

The Arctic is thawing even faster than lawmakers can formulate new rules to prevent the AND damage caused by physical hazards encountered in the Arctic, and navigating restrictions."
 * ==== "Timeframe" is a reason to vote aff – the Arctic will be ice-free by 2100 ====**
 * Saul and Chestney, 16**—Jonathan and Nina, Reuters reporters citing Whit Sheard of the Circumpolar Conservation Union, Julie Gourley, senior Arctic official at the U.S. State Department and multiple studies. "Arctic thaw opens shipping waterways, risks to environment," Feb 25, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-shipping-arctic-idUSKCN0VY1N9 —br

Multilat
Britain leaving the EU could signal a new shift away from multilateralism as leaders around AND does not play a constructive role in multilateral institutions, including the EU.
 * ====Brexit was just the tip of the iceberg – multilateralism is collapsing, but demonstrated political will can revive it ====**
 * Wurf, 16**—Hannah, Research Associate working in the G20 Studies Centre at the Lowy Institute. Her research interests are global governance and multilateralism, June 9, Online: "http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2016/06/09/What-the-UK-needs-now-is-more-multilateralism-not-less.aspx", Article: "What the UK needs now is more multilateralism, not less" Accessed on: 06-24-16//AWW

More importantly, the international community is facing bigger and unpredicted challenges and serious irrational AND there are challenges, which go beyond state sovereignty and nationalistic security thinking.
 * ====Arctic environmental cooperation spills over to boost multilateral cooperation globally, but it's on the brink – our impact is reverse causal – cooperation creates a paradigmatic governance shift that halts warfare and several other immediate existential risks ====**
 * Heinenen, 16**—Lassi, Professor of Arctic Politics @ University of Lapland, Finland. author of more than 200 scientific publications and is the editor of The Arctic Yearbook. "High Arctic Stability as an Asset for Storms of International Politics," Future Security of the Global Arctic: State Policy, Economic Security and Climate, Palgrave Macmillan, p. 4-8 http://www.palgrave.com/us/book/9781137468246 —br

The Arctic will continue to be a strategically important region into the future as nations AND opportunity to reinforce strong maritime governance in the Arctic for their mutual benefit.
 * ====The plan's signal drives cooperation – the US has a narrow window as Arctic Council leaders to lock in cooperation – it spills over to solve South China Sea conflict ====**
 * Dwyer, 15**— Commander William G. Dwyer III, United States Coast Guard, "China's Strategic Interests in the Arctic," NDU Press 3rd Place Paper, United States Army War College, Joint Force Quarterly, NDU Press, http://uscga.edu/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=65722, p. 18-20

South China Sea conflict goes nuclear.
Christensen 6/5/15 – Thomas J., Boswell professor of world politics and director of the China and the World Program at Princeton University, is a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, "China's Rising Military: Now for the Hard Part" http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-06-05/china-s-rising-military-now-for-the-hard-part One reason for this is that no consensus exists in East Asia on the territorial AND conditions in which a technologically superior foe attacks crucial targets with conventional weapons.

China and America share a common interest of freedom of navigation in the Arctic. AND current state of liberalism fostered through the Arctic Council to a realist view.
 * ====Pursuing Chinese full member status in exchange for environmental cooperation locks in multilateral peace – that's key to defuse inevitable proxy conflicts that wreck stability ====**
 * Dwyer, 15**— Commander William G. Dwyer III, United States Coast Guard, "China's Strategic Interests in the Arctic," NDU Press 3rd Place Paper, United States Army War College, Joint Force Quarterly, NDU Press, http://uscga.edu/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=65722, p. 15-17

Graeme P. **Herd 10**, Head of the International Security Programme, Co-Director of the International Training Course in Security Policy, Geneva Centre for Security Policy, 2010, "Great Powers: Towards a "cooperative competitive" future world order paradigm?," in Great Powers and Strategic Stability in the 21^^st^^ Century, p. 197-198 Given the absence of immediate hegemonic challengers to the US (or a global strategic AND contributed to the crisis; all will be involved in the solution.24
 * ====Independently, successful management of proxy conflicts through regional multilateral institutions prevents existential threats ====**

Institutionalized cooperative norms check conflict escalation and it's reverse causal
Because it rests on open, nondiscriminatory debate, and the routine exchange of viewpoints AND that further strengthen the impetus for multilateral dialog. Pg. 21-23
 * Pouliot 11**—Professor of Poli Sci @ McGill University [Vincent Pouliot, "Multilateralism as an End in Itself," International Studies Perspectives (2011) 12, 18–26]

*China is willing to cooperate to gain more arctic influence-our ev cites the Chinese vice foreign minister
Acknowledging the diversity of Arctic actors and their visions, the Arctic Resilience Assessment ( AND towards collaboration, creating new opportunities for local communities (English/Chinese).
 * Strambo 15** —- (Claudia Strambo, Novermber 17, 2015, "China in a heterogeneous and complex Arctic", Arctic Resilience Report, http://arctic-council.org/arr/china-in-a-heterogeneous-and-complex-arctic/)//Jmoney

Russia
The U.S. envoy to Canada says the Arctic Council is a great AND is the main energy source for many remote northern communities, he said.
 * ====Arctic environmental cooperation is the only chance for US-Russia relations – the US is ducking a stance on looming Russia-China Arctic status conflicts ====**
 * Heyman*, 16**—*Canadian Ambassador Bruce Heyman, being quoted by The Canadian Press, "U.S. ambassador: Arctic Council a good venue to co-operate with Russia," CTV News transcript, May 29, http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/u-s-ambassador-arctic-council-a-good-venue-to-co-operate-with-russia-1.2922129 — br

The plan's clarification of stance is key – inaction guarantees escalation
In 2015, the United States will assume the chair of the Arctic Council. AND United States is an Arctic nation: it should start acting like one.
 * Holland 14** (Andrew, Senior Fellow for Climate and Energy at The American Security Project, "Conflict in Arctic more likely due to perceived U.S. policy weakness and leadership on Arctic affairs," From Testimony in front of US House Committee on Foreign Afairs, http://unclosdebate.org/evidence/2018/conflict-arctic-more-likely-due-perceived-us-policy-weakness-and-leadership-arctic, MJW)

We're closer to US-Russia nuclear war than at any time in history – acting now is key
A nuclear war between Europe and Russia is coming closer to reality. Igor Ivanov AND training for a future war than any war games on home soil could.
 * Culbertson 16**—Alix, journalist, formerly with the BBC and Asia City Media Group, BA @ University of Leeds, "European NUCLEAR WAR IMMINENT as Russia relations break down", The Sunday Express, Mar 19, 2016, http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/653986/Europe-nuclear-war-imminent-Russia)//ml

Sophie Shevardnadze: Dr. Theodore Postol, former advisor to the U.S AND many warheads targeted on each of these great cities by the other side.
 * ====US-Russia nuclear war would end all life on Earth in half an hour – escalates uncontrollably ====**
 * Postol 16** (Theodore, former advisor to the U.S. Chief of Naval operations, professor of technology and international security at MIT, nuclear expert, interview with Sophie Shevardnadze, RT.com, 3/14/16, https://www.rt.com/shows/sophieco/324941-nuclear-cold-war-us/)//ml

Arctic environmental cooperation is vital to avoiding total fallout in the strategic triangle between the US, Russia and China in the Arctic
In September 2015, President Xi Jinping first welcomed Russian president Vladimir Putin to Beijing AND and political resources necessary for consistent engagement with traditional allies and new partners.
 * Wishnick 15** (Elizabeth Wishnick, Associate Professor of Political Science at Montclair State University and Senior Research Scholar in the Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia University, December 2015, http://www.nbr.org/publications/element.aspx?id=850)-gb

Russia-China alliance can quickly become deadly
Amid reports that China accuses the U.S. of illegally entering the South AND pilots) in the four years after the Nanjing Massacre in December 1937."
 * Tikhonova 15 (Polin, Masters @ Oxford, citing Goldstein, professor of China Maritime Studies @ US Naval War College, "U.S. Underestimates Power Of China-Russia Alliance," Oct 28,** http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/10/u-s-underestimates-power-of-china-russia-alliance/)- **gb**

The Navy also boasted its Arctic submarine laboratory, saying that it's one of the AND about their alliance as they have a common enemy – the United States.
 * ====The Arctic is key—it'll be the site of a Third World War absent cooperation ====**
 * Paloma 16** (Jereco Paloma, 6-24-2016, "WW3 Creeps In The Arctic: US Navy Deploys Nuclear Submarine After Russia's Growler," Morning News USA, http://www.morningnewsusa.com/ww3-creeps-arctic-us-navy-deploys-nuclear-submarine-russias-growler-2365651.html, MJW)

Russia is a key member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a political, economic AND , the Sino-Russian relationship remains very much a marriage of convenience.
 * ====Independently, Russia-China Arctic ties crush Ukraine stability ====**
 * Pezard and Smith 16 (Stephanie Pezard and Tony Smith, Pezard is a political scientist at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation, Smith is a graduate of the U.S. Air Force Academy and a doctoral candidate at the Pardee RAND Graduate School, http://warontherocks.com/2016/05/friends-if-we-must-russia-and-chinas-relations-in-the-arctic/)-gb**

Ukraine conflict is an existential risk
Here's the short version: The best case scenario has the Ukraine crisis being resolved AND this incident is that nuclear war could begin even during periods of calm.
 * Baum 14** - Executive Director @ Global Catastrophic Risk Institute [Seth Baum (Ph.D. in Geography @Pennsylvania State University and a Post-Doctoral Fellowship @ Columbia University Center for Research on Environmental Decisions), "Best And Worst Case Scenarios for Ukraine Crisis: World Peace And Nuclear War," Huffington Post, Updated: 05/07/2014 5:59 am EDT, pg. http://tinyurl.com/lxx49og

Pan
====Bifocal lens of China threat and opportunity are false constructions based the West's need for certainty and power – the failings of opportunity policies or engagement will converge with the fear incited by the threat constructions making conflict inevitable as politicians push for "hedging strategies" against China.==== At the core of the Western self-imagination is the modern knowing subject. AND context that this book has sought to deconstruct a less than healthy field.
 * Pan '12** - Senior Lecturer in International Relations at Deakin University (Chengxin, Knowledge, Desire and Power in Global Politics, p.148-150)//CT

The 'China threat' paradigm has the potential to become a dangerous self-fulfilling prophecy, further use of which guarantees deterioration of relations and increases the risk of conflict.
Pan 12, Chengxin Pan is a Senior Lecturer in the International Relations at the School of Humanities and Social Sciences and a member of the Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalization at Deakin University (Chengxin Pan, Knowledge, Desire, and Power in Global Politics, pg. 105-107)//AM If changing Chinese public opinion and Beijing's growing assertiveness in foreign policy are better understood AND all the more imperative to lay bare its intrinsic link with power practice.

Alt – Reject the aff to open their representations and language to deconstructive self-watching. Only complete rejection of latent neocolonial representations can change Western self-imaginations.
One message from this study is that it is no longer adequate for us to AND , facilitated by its various scientific, theoretical, and pedagogical guises. .
 * Pan '12** - Senior Lecturer in International Relations at Deakin University (Chengxin, Knowledge, Desire and Power in Global Politics, p.151-152)//CT

Polls show Clinton will win the election now
Benen 6/15 (Steve, MSNBC. "Latest polls show Clinton getting stronger, Trump falling." http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/latest-polls-show-clinton-getting-stronger-trump-falling) When Donald Trump wrapped up the Republicans' presidential nomination, 2016 polling showed him gaining AND ) and Hispanics (11% favorable/89% unfavorable).

Engagement with China causes an electoral backlash – ensures the plan gets spun negatively
Golan 15 (Shahar, University of Washington, The Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies, "Building a Pragmatic Coalition in American Politics", https://digital.lib.washington.edu/researchworks/bitstream/handle/1773/33275/Task%20Force%20E%202015.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y) In recent times China has become one of the most contentious issues regarding American foreign AND roadblocks for the rethink of US military bases in the Pacific.

GOP candidates will rhetorically weaponize the plan
Harris 16 (Peter, Prof of political science @ Colorado State U, "President Obama's Partisan Foreign Policy," Jan 26,nationalinterest.org/feature/president-obamas-partisan-foreign-policy-15019?page=2) The political scientist V.O. Key once wrote that "latent" public AND luxury. Future public opinion is the least of their worries.

Trump victory risks extinction via climate change and global war
Nisbet 16 (Matthew, Associate Professor of Communication Studies and Affiliate Associate Professor of Public Policy and Urban Affairs at Northeastern University who studies the role of communication, media, and public opinion in debates over science, technology, and the environment, New Scientist, "Trump would deliver fatal blow to fight against climate change," 5/27/16http://www.northeastern.edu/camd/commstudies/people/matthew-nisbet/#sthash.Zoq2zrjr.dpuf) Trump would deliver fatal blow to fight against climate change A Donald Trump presidency would AND . The stakes riding on a US presidential election have never been higher.