Sofi+Do+&+Lauren

__**Offshore Wind Development**__

__Plan Text:__ The United States Federal Government should provide a long term investment tax credit and one-stop permitting for ocean offshore wind energy development.

__Advantages:__ Warming (ocean acidification - ext)/Heg (great power war)

Warming is anthropogenic – the most comprehensive data-sets are conclusive
Green 13 – Professor of Chemistry @ Michigan Tech


 * John Cook – Fellow @ Global Change Institute, produced climate communication resources adopted by organisations such as NOAA and the U.S. Navy


 * Dana Nuccitelli – MA in Physics @ UC-Davis** *Mark Richardson – PhD Candidate in Meteorology, et al.,(“Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature,” Environmental Research Letters, 8.2)//BB An accurate perception of the degree of scientific consensus is an essential element to public support for climate policy (Ding et al 2011). Communicating the scientific consensus also increases people's acceptance that climate change (CC) is happening (Lewandowsky et al 2012). Despite numerous indicators of a consensus, there is wide public perception that climate scientists disagree over the fundamental cause of global warming (GW;et al 2012, Pew 2012).

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In the most comprehensive analysis performed to date, we have extended the analysis of peer-reviewed climate papers in Oreskes (2004)... __A__ mong papers expressing a position on AGW, an overwhelming  percentage (97 .2% based on self-ratings, 97.1% based on abstract ratings)  endorses the scientific consensus on AGW  .=====

Even if some warming is inevitable, keeping it below 4 degrees avoids the worst impacts
Kim 12 – PhD in Anthropology @ Harvard, former president of Dartmouth, Now President of the World Bank

(Jim Yong, “Turn Down the Heat,” p. ix)//BB


 * __ The 4°C scenarios are devastating __**: the inundation of coastal cities..The World Bank Group will step up to the challenge.

Catastrophic warming risks extinction
Mazo 10 – PhD in Paleoclimatology from UCLA

(Jeffrey Mazo, Managing Editor, Survival and Research Fellow for Environmental Security and Science Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, 3-2010, “Climate Conflict: How global warming threatens security and what to do about it,” pg. 122)//BB

The best estimates for global warming to the end of the century range from 2.5-4.~C above pre-industrial levels, depending on the scenario. Even in the best-case scenario, the low end of the likely range is 1.goC, and in the worst 'business as usual' projections, which actual emissions have been matching, the range of likely warming runs from 3.1--7.1°C. Even keeping emissions at constant 2000 levels (which have already been exceeded), global temperature would still be expected to reach 1.2°C (O'9""1.5°C)above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century."  Without early  and  severe reductions in emissions..  What is certain is that there is no precedent in human experience for such rapid change or such climatic conditions, and  even in the best case adaptation to these extremes would mean profound social, cultural and political changes.

Independently, emissions cause ocean acidification – extinction
Romm 12 – physicist and climate expert, Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress

(Joseph J., “Science: Ocean Acidifying so fast that it threatens humanity’s ability to feed itself”, 3/2/12; http://earthlawcenter.org/news/headline/science-ocean-acidifying-so-fast-it-threatens-humanitys-ability-to-feed-itself/)

** The world’s oceans may be turning acidic faster today from human carbon emissions ** than they did during four major extinctions... **“** ** Once a species goes extinct it’s gone forever. We’re playing a very dangerous game ** **.”**

US offshore wind development curbs carbon emissions
Thaler 12 - Professor of Energy Policy, Law & Ethics

(Jeff, “FIDDLING AS THE WORLD BURNS: HOW CLIMATE CHANGE URGENTLY REQUIRES A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE PERMITTING OF RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS,” 42 Environmental Law Journal 1101)//BB

==== Unfortunately, as the economic and health costs from fossil fuel emissions have grown so too has the byzantine labyrinth of laws and regulations to be navigated before a renewable energy project can be approved, let alone... The net capacity factor101 for offshore turbines is greater than standard land-based turbines, and their blade-tip speeds are higher than their land - based counterparts. ====

Offshore wind is comparatively the cleanest and most productive renewable energy
Jensen 13 – partner in the Washington, DC office of Holland & Hart LLP

(Thomas, et al, “From the 35th Public Land Law Conference: Balancing Act and Paradigm Shift: The Role of Public Lands in America's Energy Future: Oceans: Are Ocean Wind Turbines like Homesteads and Gold Mines and Railroads? A Public Lands Policy Question for the Climate Change Era,” 34 Pub. Land & Resources L. Rev. 93)//BB

The ** ocean wind resource ** in United States marine waters ** is estimated to be as large as ** 4,223 gigawatts... . ** An energy resource area larger than the total landmass of the United States **, 16 one wholly owned by the American people, ** is unused and wasted as a tool to power ** our ** communities **.

Full-scale offshore wind would generate enough electricity for the entire country
Levitan 13 - writes about energy, the environment, and health. His articles have been published by Scientific American, Discover, IEEE Spectrum, Grist, and others. In previous articles for Yale Environment 360, he has written about vehicle-to-grid technology for electric cars and cities' efforts to recycle food scraps and organic waste

(Dave, “Will Offshore Wind Finally Take Off on U.S. East Coast?,” http://e360.yale.edu/feature/will_offshore_wind_finally_take_off_on_us_east_coast/2693/)//BB

“ ** The East Coast is ** the ** Saudi Arabia of offshore wind... ** The ** Northeast ** and ** mid-Atlantic coasts ** in particular are windy spots with water depths that ** make development feasible ** **.**

Electricity-emissions reductions sufficiently solve global warming
Akorede 12 - .F., Ph.D degree in Electrical Power Engineering from Universiti Putra Malaysia

(H. Hizam,M.Z.A. Ab Kadir,I. Aris,S.D. BubaElectrical & Electronic Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia, “Mitigating the anthropogenic global warming in the electric power industry,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16.5)//BB

5. Power industry's share of CO2 emissions To identify the most productive mitigation strategies.. Other measures proposed for addressing globalwarming in the realm of power generation identified and discussed in this study include adoption of carbon capture and storage technology, improvement in energy efficiency, increasing the use of renewable energy, increasing the share of nuclear power generation, and decarbonisation of fossil fuels. Each of these possible mitigation techniques is discussed in turn in the following subsections.

The lack of a strong and effective __federal mandate__ is a __key barrier__ blocking offshore wind development
Schroeder ‘10 --- J.D., University of California, Berkeley, School of Law (October 2010, Erica, California Law Review, “Turning Offshore Wind On,” Vol. 98, No, 5, Lexis, JMP)

III Current Regulatory Framework for Offshore Wind

Both state and federal governments share control over offshore wind project siting approval and permitting...Cape Wind presents a compelling and frustrating illustration of this problem.

Fast growth promotes US leadership and solves great power war
Khalilzad 11 – PhD, Former Professor of Political Science @ Columbia, Former ambassador to Iraq and Afghanistan

(Zalmay Khalilzad was the United States ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the United Nations during the presidency of George W. Bush and the director of policy planning at the Defense Department from 1990 to 1992. "The Economy and National Security" Feb 8 http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/259024/economy-and-national-security-zalmay-khalilzad)//BB

Today, economic  and fiscal trends pose the most severe long-term threat to the United States’ position as global leader. Either way, hostile states would be emboldened to make aggressive moves in their regions .

Slow growth leads to hegemonic wars – relative gap is key
Goldstein 7 - Professor of Global Politics and International Relations @ University of Pennsylvania, (Avery Goldstein, “Power transitions, institutions, and China's rise in East Asia: Theoretical expectations and evidence,” Journal of Strategic Studies, Volume 30 , Issue 4 & 5 August, EBSCO) Two closely related, though distinct, theoretical arguments focus explicitly on the consequences for international politics of a shift in power between a dominant state and a rising power…In War and Change in World Politics, Robert Gilpin suggested that peace prevails when a dominant Moreover, ** because a dominant state may react to the prospect of a crossover and believe that it is wiser to embrace the logic of ** // preventive war // ** and act early to delay a transition while the task is more manageable **, Organski and Kugler’s ** power-transition theory ** also ** provides grounds for concern ** about the period prior to the possible crossover __.__19

There are hundreds of causes of conflict – hegemony deters and controls escalation by internalizing costs
Moore 4 – Dir. Center for Security Law and Professor of Law @ University of Virginia, Editor of the American Journal of International Law (John Norton, “Solving the War Puzzle: Beyond the Democratic Peace,” pg. 41-43) If ** major interstate war is ** predominantly ** a product of ** a synergy between ** a ** ** p ** otential nondemocratic ** aggressor and an absence of effective deterrenc ** e, what is the role of the many traditional "causes" of war?... And what, in general, happens when levels of deterrence are dramatically increased or decreased?

States will inevitably compete for relative status – only primacy can prevent conflict
Wohlforth 9 - Professor of government at Dartmouth

(William, “Unipolarity, Status Competition, and Great Power War” World Politics, 61:1, January, Project Muse)

Second, I question the dominant view that status quo evaluations are relatively independent of the distribution of capabilities. And what, in general, happens when levels of deterrence are dramatically increased or decreased?

A long-term investment tax credit __catapults__ the offshore wind industry – transitions the US to a green economy
Sopko 13 – JD, former legislative council @ House of Reps

(Nancy, “Offshore Wind Needs a Boost from Congress,” http://oceana.org/en/blog/2013/11/offshore-wind-needs-a-boost-from-congress-0)//BB

Like so many of us, Oceana has seen the damage that the drilling for and burning of fossil fuels can do to the health of our oceans and marine life... The longer we continue with business as usual, the harder it will be to correct the damage we have done.

99.7% of studies prove ITC increases net price value of offshore wind projects
Wyman, 2013, graduate student at the University of Texas

(Constance, “Why The ITC Matters for Offshore Wind”, NA Wind Power, Volume 10, Number 6, http://www.nawindpower.com/issues/NAW1307/FEAT_03_Why_The_ITC_Matters_For_Offshore_Wind.html)

Over the last few years, there has been much discussion about the role of tax credits in the wind industry and whether there should be offshore-specific incentives... The CZMA offers a potential way for the federal government to assert itself and the benefits of offshore wind in state and local decision making.

Offshore wind promotes fast US growth
N’dolo 10 – associate principal @ Camoin Associates

(Michael and Bruce Bailey, “Offshore development can yield economic benefits,” North American Wind Power, Fall 2010)//BB//

//Economic opportunities//

// ** Wind power is a job-creation ** // engine //. There are limitations on the ability of any one state or province to service both coasts, but it is reasonable to assume, for example, that an installation cluster in the Mid-Atlantic region of the ¶ U.S. could provide installation capacity for a number of projects on the East Coast.

Reforming the permitting process is key – Massachusetts provides an opportune model for streamlined development
Kimmel *, and Stalenhoef**, 10-10- 2011 – *Commissioner of the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection** Counsel for the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities

[*Kenneth, *Dawn, “The Cape Wind Offshore Wind Energy Project: A Case Study of the Difficult Transition to Renewable Energy”, Golden Gate University Environmental Law Journal, Volume 5 Issue 1, http://digitalcommons.law.ggu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1073&context=gguelj]

The Cape Wind saga reveals that the current permitting process for ¶ offshore wind energy projects is broken... Nor is there any process to assure developers that ¶ if they select certain sites and abide by known performance standards, ¶ they will receive a permit .99 Thus, the Cape Wind experience both // highlights //// the need for reform ¶ and provides models for the types of reform that are needed. //

Long-term incentives ensure that the supply chain follows on – fed support key
Galluci 11 - Staff Reporter at InsideClimate News Honduras Contributor at Fodor's, Co-Editor & Reporter at The News, Newsroom Intern at Associated Press, Newsroom Intern at Columbus Business

(Maria, “Never-Used Tax Credit Could Jumpstart US Offshore Wind Energy—if Renewed,” http://truth-out.org/news/item/4778:neverused-tax-credit-could-jumpstart-us-offshore-wind-energy%E2%80%94if-renewed)

Matt Kaplan, a North American wind analyst at IHS Emerging Energy Research , said // removing //// the // tax credit's end date could help lure investors by guaranteeing the government's supporteven if projects gets held up by bureaucracy or politics...The key for theentire U.S. offshore wind industry will be // consistent government support //, say the developers. " Stability in tax and regulatory policies will go a long way toward helping this industry develop in the United States," Grybowski said.

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