Kai+&+Layla+(HJPV-BEFJR)

=ayy lmao hmu at coolia45@gmail.com for questions or life advice or hit me up on tinder or tumblr (https://www.tumblr.com/blog/coolia45)= = = =1AC= **__ Manufacturing __**
 * The shale boom is unsustainable—US reserves and productivity are decreasing rapidly **
 * Gopinath 9-3-13**—New Dehli economist writing for YaleGlobal Online (Deepak, “Shale Energy No Quick Solution,” YaleGlobal Online, http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/shale-energy-no-quick-solution)BC

The speed and... global oil resources.


 * Natural gas prices will keep increasing despite flat consumption—that impacts sectors throughout the econSomy **
 * Schwartzel, 13 ** [Erich Schwartzel, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Expert on Fracking, visited Pappas’ Public Policy Class and was part of a round table discussion that consisted of Barry Rabe, professor at UM and others, really funny too, “U.S. report predicts rising natural gas prices in 2013-14”, []]


 * __The average price....__** a single location.

In an interview ..... __higher than now.”__
 * The impact is price spikes **
 * Maize, 12/1/12 ** [“Is Shale Gas Shallow or the Real Deal?”, Kennedy, Veteran Journalist¶ Kennedy Maize has spent the past 40 years working as a journalist, analyst, and manager in the private sector and federal government, with over 35 years of that focused on energy and environmental topics. Over that time, he has seen myriad examples of how group think, policy fads, and bad judgment can result in colossal failures, particularly in the field of atomic energy. Maize has seen, up close and personal, the demise of the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, the arrival of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the birth of the U.S. Department of Energy, the failures of nuclear flight, the hubris of atomic earthmoving, the boom and bust uranium market, the birth and death of breeder reactors, and the 60-year wandering in the wilderness of nuclear waste policy. After graduating from Penn State and graduate study at the University of Maryland, Kennedy Maize worked for newspapers in Pennsylvania, New York, and Virginia and the Associated Press in Baltimore. He then spent five years in management at the National Institute of Health and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission before taking a job covering energy, environment, and business topics for Editorial Research Reports, a division of Congressional Quarterly, where his work appeared in over 1,000 daily newspapers in the U.S. during the mid-to-late 1970s. Maize became a staff writer and editor at The Energy Daily, a preeminent energy trade paper, on March 28, 1979, the day the Three Mile Island accident began outside Harrisburg, Pa. Over more than 10 years at The Energy Daily, he covered the nuclear and coal industries, including stories involving the Clinch River Breeder Reactor, the U.S. Synthetic Fuels Corp., the Powder River Basin coal leasing scandal, and the Chernobyl explosion. In 1993, he founded The Electricity Daily, where he was the editor for 14 years, writing about changes in the electricity business, the rise and fall of Enron, the stagnation of the nuclear power business, and the arrival of market forces in the utility field. Since 2006, he has been an editor at POWER magazine, and the founder of MANAGING POWER magazine, where he has written about the Fukushima catastrophe, the emergence of shale gas and decline of coal, and the often ill-advised push for renewable electricity technologies¶ http://www.powermag.com/gas/Is-Shale-Gas-Shallow-or-the-Real-Deal_5188.html]

[]]
 * Robust __domestic__ production is key to __manufacturing__ growth—that’s the basis for economic recovery **
 * Duesterberg, 12 ** [Tom is Executive Director of the Manufacturing and Society in the 21st Century program at the Aspen Institute. He recently retired as President and CEO of The Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, an economic research and executive education organization based in Arlington, Virginia with more than 500 manufacturing firms as members. Previous positions include: Director of the Washington Office of The Hudson Institute, Assistant Secretary for International Economic Policy at the U.S. Department of Commerce, chief of staff to two members of Congress, and associate instructor at Stanford University. His commentary and analysis on manufacturing, economic performance, globalization, and related policy issues can be found in major news outlets. He holds a B.A. degree from Princeton and M. A. and Ph.D. degrees from Indiana University, “Impact of the Energy Boom on US Manufacturing”,


 * __The manufacturing__** **__sector....__** the transportation sector.

Pirog and Ratner 12- *Energy specialist in the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies International Economics Program, **specialist in energy policy for the Congressional Research Service (Robert and Michael, “Natural Gas in the U.S. Economy: Opportunities for Growth” Congressional News Service, http://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42814.pdf)//WK** __Expanded supply, coupled.......__**more market-oriented method.**
 * __ Maintaining low prices __**** through adequate supply is key to lock in a massive economic benefit—that __galvanizes key industries__ **

Natural gas production directly correlates with growth and innovation—unique spillover effects Carey, 12/13/12 **[Julie M, Julie M. Carey is an energy economist with Navigant Economics who provides consulting and testifying services Navigant’s unconventional oil and gas offerings include advisory services for strategic business decision analysis, construction risk management, economic and antitrust analyses, investment banking and restructuring advisory services, and expert services for disputes and investigations, “How Unconventional Oil And Gas Is Supercharging The U.S. Economy”, http://www.forbes.com/sites/energysource/2012/12/13/how-unconventional-oil-and-gas-is-transforming-the-u-s-economy/]**


 * It’s an exciting.... ** __and indirect jobs).__

Domestic manufacturing is key to overall __resilience__ Ettlinger, 11 **[Michael, Vice President for Economic Policy at the Center for ¶ American Progress Prior to joining the Center, he spent six years at the Economic ¶ Policy Institute directing the Economic Analysis and Research Network. ¶ Previously, he was tax policy director for Citizens for Tax Justice and the Institute ¶ on Taxation and Economic Policy for 11 years. He has also served on the staff of ¶ the New York State Assembly. “The Importance and Promise¶ of American Manufacturing Why It Matters if We Make It in America and Where We Stand Today”, http://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/issues/2011/04/pdf/manufacturing.pdf]**


 * __Manufacturing is__** __critically .....**__ __to natural disasters__.

Econ decline leads to nuclear war and terrorism – causes widespread suffering
Harris and Burrows 9 - *PhD in Euro History, **member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit**
 * Mathew, PhD European History @ Cambridge, counselor in the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and Jennifer is a member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis” []**
 * Increased Potential for Global Conflict**
 * Of course, the .... more dog-eat-dog world. **

Our impact has a strong statistical basis – rally around the flag Royal 10 **– Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises,” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-214**

Low natural gas prices key to domestic steel manufacturing
 * Less intuitive ..... deserves more attention. **
 * James 12- Correspondent for Reuters (Steve, “Analysis: Steelmakers eye gas to cut costs, drive exports”, Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/16/us-steel-gas-idUSBRE82F12Y20120316)//WK//**

//__America's steel industry__**,.....** __the 21st Century.__//

// Low steel prices are the vital internal link to primacy // //**AISI et al. 7- (*American Iron and Steel Institute,** Specialty Steel Industry of North America, ***Steel Manufacturers Association,** **Steel Manufacturer’s Association,** ***United Steel Workers, “Steel and the National Defense”, http://www.ssina.com/news/releases/pdf_releases/steel_and_national_defense_0107.pdf)**//**WK** __This analysis__** presented .....extended construction schedules.

Successful international engagement solves global nuclear war, prevents authoritarian regimes from perpetuating violence
Brooks 13 (Stephen, Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College, John Ikenberry is the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University in the Department of Politics and the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, William C. Wohlforth is the Daniel Webster Professor in the Department of Government at Dartmouth College “Don’t Come Home America: The Case Against Retrenchment,” International Security, Vol. 37, No. 3 (Winter 2012/13), pp. 7–51) A core premise of //.....// g rather than shrinking. 85

**__ Warming __**
 * And, natural gas acts as a bridge fuel—spurring broad renewable development **
 * Ju 12 – ** Anne Ju (senior science writer for the Cornell Chronicle) July 17, 2012 “Study Proves Natural Gas Can Bridge the Gap to a Clean Energy Economy” []


 * __Natural gas is .....__** **__fast the transition.”__**

5 Conclusions and discussion ¶ ..... superior ¶ climate outcomes. ¶
 * The plan solves warming – most recent and comprehensive study **
 * Levi, 1/3/13 ** [Climate consequences of natural gas as a bridge fuel ¶ Michael Levi, David M. Rubenstein Senior Fellow for Energy and the Environment and Director of the Program on Energy Security and Climate Change, Climate Consequences of Natural Gas As a Bridge Fuel, []]


 * Runaway CO2 emissions now - natural gas is the only effective alternative to coal—U.S. development is modeled globally and prevents extinction **
 * Riley 12 ** —BA, LL.M., PhD, professor of energy law at The City Law School at City University London (Alan, 8/13/12, “Shale Gas to the Climate Rescue,” http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/14/opinion/shale-gas-to-the-climate-rescue.html, RBatra)


 * __The battle against .....__**** __and medium term.__ **

Many years ago.... **__on the way.”__**
 * OCS expansion key to solve warming **
 * Lamborn, 08 ** [Path of wisdom: Open up Outer Continental Shelf to gas drilling, House Representative Doug Republican Colorado, []]

Warming causes extreme suffering – leads to extinction – GHG emissions key
 * Costello 11 – **, Anthony, Institute for Global Health, University College London, Mark Maslin, Department of Geography, University College London, Hugh Montgomery, Institute for Human Health and Performance, University College London, Anne M. Johnson, Institute for Global Health, University College London, Paul Ekins, Energy Institute, University College London [“Global health and climate change: moving from denial and catastrophic fatalism to positive action” May 2011 vol. 369 no. 1942 1866-1882 Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society]

Advocacy about the ....many __environments uninhabitable.__

**__ Solvency __** Lieberman 08 – senior policy analyst for Energy and Environment for the Heritage Foundation (Ben, “Listing the Offshore Drilling Ban: A Positive Step in the Fight against High Energy Prices”, The Heritage Foundation, 7/14/2008, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2008/07/lifting-the-offshore-drilling-ban-a-positive-step-in-the-fight-against-high-energy-prices)//BD
 * Plan: The United States federal government should increase leasing for offshore natural gas production in the Outer Continental Zone of the United States. **
 * OCS restrictions must be lifted but federal action is key – Congress has to fund DOI leasing projects **
 * __Washington must do .....__**** __has been successful.__ **


 * And, the plan creates certainty for offshore production—balances supply **
 * Griles 3 ** [Lisa, Deputy Secretary, Department of the Interior, “Energy Production on Federal Lands,” Hearing before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, United States Senate]

Mr. GRILES. __America’s__ ..... __**where to go.**__


 * And, that sustains low prices and ensures adequate supply **
 * Hastings, 12 ** [House Representative Doc, Republican Washington, President Obama's offshore drilling plan must be replaced, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/energy-a-environment/239529-president-obamas-offshore-drilling-plan-must-be-replaced]

__Though__ President __Obama .......__ __**strengthen America’s economy**__.

Curry L. ** Hagerty **(Specialist in Energy and Natural Resources Policy at the Congressional Research Service) June 15, ** 2010 **“Outer Continental Shelf Moratoria on Oil and Gas Development” http://crs.ncseonline.org/nle/crsreports/10Jul/R41132.pdf
 * Otherwise, restrictions crush predictability and timing of projects **

__One legacy of ......__ similar leasing prohibitions'

** 2nr --- t **

 * rd 3 vs nopp **
 * 1nc --- ptx da, japan cp, japan da, heidegger k, russia da, t-its, military, ocean acidification good **
 * 2nc --- t, japan **
 * 1nr --- ptx **
 * 2nr --- japan, ptx **


 * rd 5 vs lng **
 * 1nc --- t-its, osw cp, russia econ da, heidegger, china da on case, protectionism da on case, warming link turns on case **
 * 2nc --- t, warming link turns **
 * 1nr --- cp, russia **
 * 2nr --- cp, warming link turns **


 * doubles vs icebreakers **
 * 1nc --- t-its, t-military, alaska cp, navy cp, coast guard da, ptx da, russia da on case, manufacturing da on case, biod da on case **
 * 2nc --- russia da **
 * 1nr --- ptx **
 * 2nr --- ptx **