Gus+and+Max

=Plan=
 * The United States federal government should implement a phased withdrawal of its ground troops in the Republic of Korea.**

=Advantage 1 is Succession=


 * A massive power struggle is underway in North Korea – warring factions will facilitate several avenues for conflict**
 * Bandow, 6/9** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (6/9/10, Doug, The Daily Caller, “Confronting North Korea: Who’s in charge?”[], JMP)

We see through a glass darkly, … far more than Washington’s problem.

[], JMP)
 * Succession politics makes provocations __more …__ rollback North Korea’s nuclear program**
 * Bandow, 09** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (7/29/09, Doug, “Kim’s Heir,”

President George W. Bush famously said … more unsettled and dangerous future.

**Kim Jong Un needs to score some political victories to ensure a stable succession process – right now he is using military provocations to try and win support of the military** **Lee, 10** (5/27/10, Jean H., writer for the Associated Press, The Associated Press, “Analysis: Attack May Be Tied to NKorean Succession”, http://www.lexisnexis.com) Young, inexperienced and virtually unknown … to make his political debut.

**Even if the succession process goes smoothly, regime collapse is still inevitable which will destabilize the region** //**Meyers, 10**// //– professor at Dongseo University in South Korea (3/26/10, B.R. Meyers, “ North Korea on the Edge; If the regime collapses, will the rest of the world be ready?” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704100604575145672974954144.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_RIGHTTopCarousel)//

As for __tensions__ with the … the least of our worries.


 * Conventional weakness means deliberate, accidental, or unauthorized CBW use is likely**
 * ICG, 09** (6/18/09, International Crisis Group, “North Korea’s Chemical and Biological Weapons Programs,” [], JMP)

This report examines North Korea’s … **__unauthorised WMD attacks or incidents.__**


 * This would cripple U.S. combat effectiveness**
 * TULAK 1995** (Arthur, Captain in the US army and Master’s Degree in Defense and Strategic Studies, “Tactical nuclear weapons - does the U.S. army still need them?” [])

As Dr. Gray pointed out, __Third …__ of the United States military.295
 * CBW use would result in US nuclear retaliation**
 * SCHNEIDER 1997** (Barry, Director of the USAF Counterproliferation Center at Air University, Maxwell AFB, Alabama, and an Associate Professor of International Relations in the Department of Future Conflict Studies at the U.S. Air War College., Future War and Counterproliferation, 72-73)

As a result, today, in the … __might demand harsh nuclear retribution.__


 * US nuclear response destroys the nuclear taboo—this makes worldwide nuclear wars inevitable**
 * GIZEWSKI 1996** (Peter, Senior Associate, Peace and Conflict Studies Programme, University of Toronto, International Journal, Summer, p. 400)

__Absolute and all-encompassing, the … of more destruction to come__.


 * Even a limited nuclear war causes rapid cooling and ozone disruption, collapses the economy, and spills over to other hot spots causing extinction**
 * Hayes & Hamel-Green, 10** – *Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development, AND ** Executive Dean of the Faculty of Arts, Education and Human Development act Victoria University (1/5/10, Executive Dean at Victoria, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia,” [])

The international community is increasingly … consideration from the international community.


 * Withdrawing __ground troops__ solves – stops … will maintain power projection capabilities.**
 * Stanton, 10** – U.S. Army Judge Advocate in Korea from 98-02 and practicing attorney in Washington, D.C. (4/12/10, Joshua, The New Ledger, “It's Time for the U.S. Army to Leave Korea,” [], JMP)

Proceeding against the advice of …, aligns with the correct result.


 * The plan solves by motivating China and South Korea to effectively influence the leadership transition**
 * Bandow, 08** – Fellow at the American Conservative Defense Alliance and former special assistant to Reagan (9/15/08, Doug, “Dear Leader Goes South,” [], JMP)

Two men have ruled the … **__importantly South Korea and China.__**


 * Chinese involvement is key to stabilize Korea – prevents violent collapse, military response by South Korea, North Korea nuclearization and allied proliferation**
 * Bandow, 10** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (5/3/10, Doug, “Taming Pyongyang,” [], JMP)

Second, the United States, South … in the North Korean issue.

=Advantage 2 is Regionalism=


 * U.S. alliance relationships are unsustainable – …** a strong, independent East Asian Union.

**Regionalism is currently halfhearted – only a __…__ motivate __sustainable__ regional security cooperation** **Carpenter and Bandow 4 - *** Vice President of Defense and Foreign Studies at the Cato Institute, AND ** Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute **(**Ted Galen Carpenter, 12/2004, The Korean Conundrum: America’s Troubled Relations With North and South Korea, pg 160-161)DR

The security treaties with the … **central and west-central Pacific.**


 * Specially, withdrawal will reduce Korea’s veto of multilateral security mechanisms – yielding a peace system on the peninsula that prevents great power war**
 * Lee, 09** – Seoul National University (December 2009, Geun, “The Nexus between Korea’s Regional Security Options and Domestic Politics,” [|www.cfr.org], JMP)

Korea’s Option of Multilateral Security … __form of the U.S.-Korea alliance.__


 * Strengthening the East Asian regional security architecture key to solve terrorism, territorial disputes, disease, environmental degradation, and maritime security**
 * Nanto, 08** – Specialist in Industry and Trade Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division for Congressional Research Services (1/4, “East Asian Regional Architecture: New Economic and Security Arrangements and U.S. Policy,” www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33653.pdf)

__A stronger **regional security organization** …__ will exist in the future.


 * Territorial disputes draw in great powers --- causes World War 3**
 * Waldron, 97** – professor of strategy and policy at the U.S. Naval War College and an associate of the Fairbank Center for East Asian Research at Harvard (March 1997, Arthur, Commentary, “How Not to Deal with China,” EBSCO)

__MAKING THESE flash-points all … Japan--or the__ __U__nited __S__tates.

=Advantage 3 is China=

“First Among Equals,” [], JMP)
 * The plan eases the transition to a more multipolar world – trying to cling to the status quo makes hegemonic decline and conflict with China inevitable**
 * Bandow, 09** – Fellow at the American Conservative Defense Alliance and Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (1/12/09, Doug,

It’s the job of military … **__smoother will be the transition.__**


 * Withdrawal solves accidental war with China, stops friction with Japan and yields a nuclear free peninsula**
 * Garfinkle, 03** – taught American foreign policy and Middle East politics at the University of Pennsylvania and is editor of The National Interest (1/27/03, Adam, National Review, “Checking Kim,” [], JMP)

NO NORMAL DIPLOMACY The U.S. finds … __it. We can help them do so.__

Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United States of America”, []]
 * Conflict with China will escalate to global nuclear war**
 * Hunkovic, 09 –** American Military University [Lee J, 2009, “The Chinese-Taiwanese Conflict

__A war between China, Taiwan …__ be considered in this study.

**Bandow, 09** – senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to Reagan (2/24/09, Doug, “Balancing Beijing,” EBSCO, JMP)
 * Motivating Beijing to take a greater regional role ensures its peaceful rise**

So Washington should exhibit humility … other’s economic and geopolitical ambitions.


 * Realism is true and inevitable – a shift away collapses into chaos.**


 * __Mearsheimer__** 200**__1__** [professor of political science … //Tragedy of Great Power Politics//, pg. 361]

__The optimists' claim that security … in each region at peace.__