Michael+and+Arthur

Turkey Advantages- Iran, Russia, NATO Realism Pre-empt

Plan: The United States Federal government should remove all of its tactical nuclear weapons from Turkey

Inherency
 * The US has 90 nukes in Incirlik Air Base in Turkey**
 * Walsh and Holmgreen, 7**(Brian and Casper, “Potential Nuclear Proliferation in Turkey”, 2007)

Additionally, Turkey hosts the Incirlik Air Base...military in the event of nuclear war.


 * These nukes are outdated and don’t deter or serve any purpose**

For more than 40 years, Turkey has been a quiet.... conditions for the removal of tactical U.S. nuclear weapons from Turkish soil.
 * Bell and Loehrke 9** – manager at the Ploughshares Fund, Truman National Security Fellow, writer about U.S nuclear weapons in Turkey and research assistant at the Ploughshares Fund, graduate student at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists


 * Advantage 1 is Iran**

//[J.J.// **//Green//**//, the national security correspondent, and Middle East proliferation expert for WTOP, CSPAN, and Voice of America, on WTOP “Iran ‘Definitely’ Building Nuclear Weapon”.// **//6/14//**///2010,// [|//http://www.wtop.com/?nid=25&sid=1979648//] //] Saker// "There is no doubt Iran is ... own military activity.
 * Initially note – Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons now**

In addition to improvements in bilateral relations...r**econsider its policy on U.S. nuclear weapons.**
 * US withdraw of TNW’s from turkey grants them the credibility to prevent Iranian nuclearization**
 * Kibaroglu 6/7**/10 (Mustafa, Professor and Vice Chair of the IR dept @ Bilkent U, “Reassessing the Role of U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Turkey”)

**Turkish credibility is key to reducing Iran’s arsenal – they’re the single most influential actor** The presence of a third party acting .... which it has long and friendly relations.
 * Ben-Meir, 09** (Alon Ben-Meir, Senior Fellow at the Center for Global Affairs in New York University and teaches courses on the Middle East and international negotiations, Spring 2009, The Whitehead Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations, Nuclear Iran is Not an Option: A New Negotiating Strategy to Prevent Iran from Developing Nuclear Weapons)

The current nature of the Iranian leadership – illustrated by....with Iran given the ’absence of rational leadership‘ in Tehran.
 * Iran will not follow current nuclear taboos- only Turkish diplomacy can solve**
 * Kaye & Wehrey 7**- *Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation AND **I**nternational Policy Analyst at the RAND Corporation. (June 2007, Survival, “A Nuclear Iran: The Reactions of Neighbours” JSTOR)


 * Iran nuclear proliferation causes cascading proliferation in the Middle East and global nuclear war**

I**nbar 6** (Efraim, Professor of Political Studies at Bar-Ilan University and Director of its Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies “The Need to Block a Nuclear Iran” Article was Peer Reviewed by David Leitner and Tamara Sternlieb, The Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol 10 No 1 Article 7 March 2006) [], AD: 7-31-09) Further improvements in Iranian missiles would ...... of stable nuclear deterrence in the region.

To be sure, the prospects of Turkey developing ....Ankara from pursuing nuclear weapons.”
 * The withdraw of TNWs does not cause Turkish proliferation**
 * Tertrais, 8** (Bruno, “The Coming NATO Nuclear Debate”, 26/9/2008, Tertrais is a member of the [|International Institute for Strategic Studies] and a member of the Global Agenda Council on International Security Cooperation)

Israel is especially dangerous because its leaders ....Only a worldwide disarmament movement can stop it.
 * Middle east war causes extinction, draws in russia**
 * Moore 9**—BA in pol sci from Wayne State (Carol, Six Escalation Scenarios to Nuclear World War III, 16 February,@http://pakalert.wordpress.com/2009/02/16/six-escalation-scenarios-to-nuclear-world-war-iii/

//[Uzi Mahnaimi and Sara Baxter, staff writers for **The**// **//Sunday Times//**//, “Revealed: Israel Plans Nuclear Strike on Iran”, 1/7/**20**//**//07//**//.// [|//http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article1290331.ece//] //] Saker// Israel has drawn up secret plans to destroy Iran’s .... declared that “Israel must be wiped off the map”.
 * ISRAEL WILL NUKE IRAN AS SOON AS IT DEVELOPS NUKES – THIS RESULTS IN TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL NUCLEAR WAR.**


 * An Israeli strike results in extinction **
 * Ivashov, 07 ** (Leonid Ivashov, analyst at the Strategic Culture Foundation, 4/21/2007, "Iran: the Threat of a Nuclear War," [])

What might cause the force... all respects much more nightmarish than WWII.

=Russia 1AC=

U.S.-Russian //relations// are at their lowest point ..... //a new// (and different) //Cold War// to take place.
 * U.S-Russia relations are low now. If we do not act soon, this will trigger miscalculations and a new Cold War.**
 * Deatsch 09** Amanda Deastsch- Her dissertation for M.A. from Webster University. (“Misperceptions in U.S.-Russia relations: Prospects for a new Cold War?” abstract)

However, it will be difficult to move towards a .... through contact with parliamentary colleagues in these countries.
 * removing tactical nuclear weapons from Europe is uniquely key to convincing Russia to reduce its stockpile of nuclear weapons**
 * Kolesnikov et al. 08 ** (Sergei, Rolf Mützenich, Patrik Vankrunklesven, “Time to remove tactical nuclear weapons from Europe?” < []> Dr. Rolf Mützenich has a phD from the University of Bremen in political science, member of SPD, Spokesperson on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament. Patrik Vankrunklesven is a Belgian Senator, and PNND Council Member, Sergei Kolesnikov is a PNND Council Member)

Although this is a sharp decline from the height ...there is also room for substantial unilateral confidence building efforts.
 * Unilateral action by the US to remove TNWs from Europe inspires confidence in Russia to do the same**
 * Bildt and Sikorski 2010** (Carl and Radek, February 1, NYT, “Next, the Tactical Nukes,” [] Carl Bildt is the Foreign Minister of Sweden and is former Prime Minister of Sweden, Radek Sikorski is the Foreign Minister of Poland, In 2002-2005 he was a resident fellow at the American Institute of Enterprise in Washington and Executive Director of the New Atlantic Initiative. R. Sikorski is the editor of “European Outlook”, a cycle of analytical publications, and organizer of international conferences on UN reform, the future of NATO and the 25th anniversary of Solidarity. He was Senator for Bydgoszcz in 2005-2007 (6th term of the Senate). In 2005-2007 R. Sikorski served as Minister of National Defence)

Finally there is the issue of NATO’s nonproliferation ...not important enough to justify this contradiction.
 * Keeping TNWs in Europe kills American and NATO credibility on nonproliferation**
 * Kristensen 2010** (Hans M., May 10, Federation of American Scientists Security Blog, “US Nuclear Weapons in Europe: Status and Issues”, , > Hans M. Kristensen is Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists. Between 1998 and 2002, Kristensen directed the Nuclear Strategy Project at the Nautilus Institute in Berkeley, CA. Kristensen was a Special Advisor to the Danish Ministry of Defence in 1997-1998 as a member of the Danish Defence Commission, a Danish Ministry of Defence led review of Danish military policy. He was a Senior Researcher with the Nuclear Information Unit of Greenpeace International in Washington D.C from 1991 to 1996, prior to which he coordinated the Greenpeace Nuclear Free Seas Campaign in Denmark, Norway, Finland and Sweden)

Almost all discussions of nuclear arms simply ignore ... radiation and fires were simply not addressed.
 * And the proliferation of tactical nuclear weapons is the greatest threat the US faces today- leads to nuclear terrorism and justifies using nukes in war**
 * Turner 2003** (Stansfield, Former Director of the CIA, former admiral in the Navy and acted as Commander in Chief of NATO’s southern flank, currently a senior research scholar at the University of Maryland, College Park School of Public Policy, Forward in the book Tactical Nuclear Weapons: Emergent Threats in an Evolving Security Environment)

We have reached a point in human history ...the whole planet, we will all be losers.
 * terrorist attack would cause extinction**
 * Sid-Ahmed** political analyst Sept 1 **2k4** (Mohamed, “Extinction” Al-Ahram weekly, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm)

In some respects, TNWs are more dangerous....” others may well emulate this example.
 * Tactical nuclear weapons are a bigger threat than strategic nuclear weapons- we control the most probable internal link to a nuclear attack**
 * Sokov 2002** (Nicolai Socov, “Issue Brief: Tactical Nuclear Weapons”, Nicolai Sokov is a senior research associate at the Center of Nonproliferation Studies, Monteray Institute of International Studies. He worked at the Institute of USA and Canadian Studies and the Institute of World Economy and International Relations in Moscow. From 1987-92 he worked at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Soviet Union and Russia, he participated in Sstart I and Start II negotiations. He wrote the book Russian Strategic Modernization: Past and Future.)

The stationing of NATO’s TNWs in western European states has ....as early as December 2009.16
 * Removing TNW’s is key to reviving US-Russian relations**
 * Claudine Lamond**, Australian National University (International Relations), June **2009**, “International Security Report” []


 * US-Russia have the ability to maintain a strong relationship – NOW is key**
 * Dmitry V. Suslo**v, Deputy Director for Research at the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, May 18, **2010,** “U.S. - Russia relations after the New START treaty” []

The U.S.-Russia relationship has clearly overcome the ..... with a range of issues.

In these and other ways, ...Jewish philosopher Hillel, "If not now, when? If not us, who?"
 * U.S.-RUSSIA RELATIONS CHECK MULTIPLE SCENARIOS OF NUCLEAR WAR**
 * COHEN 1** (Stephen, Prof of Russian Studies at NYU, June 7, @http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20010625&c=1&s=cohen)

=Nato 1AC=

A primary reason for this neglect .... weapons are safely and securely isolated.
 * The Removal of TNW’s from Europe is the first step in solving NATO’s dissolution**
 * Podvig 2010** (Pavel, 2/25, expert in Russian nuclear arsenal and physicist, head of the Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces Research Project, Stanford research associate, “What to do about tactical nuclear weapons” The Bulletin)

Some officials worry that the debate over tactical nuclear weapons... role of nuclear weapons in today's world.
 * TNW’s in Turkey spur NATO fracturing**
 * Landler 4/23**/2010 (Mark, The International Herald Tribune, “U.S. wants to keep nuclear weapons in Europe; Clinton aims to persuade NATO allies tactical arms should serve as deterrent” Page: lexis nexis)

The dissolution of the alliance would ....civilization, with NATO as our invincible arm.
 * NATO’s collapse would bring mulitpolar world, European arms races, Russian aggression**
 * Sikorski 04** **(**Radek, 3/2/2004, “NATO has not Perished yet while we are still alive” The National Interest)

=Preempts= The optimists' claim that security competition .... keeping the major states in each region at peace.
 * And only the affirmative’s viewpoint of relations in the Middle East are correct- Realism is true and inevitable**
 * Mearsheimer 2001**** [professor of political science at University of Chicago, //The Tragedy of Great Power Politics//, pg. 361]