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1AC Mayport
__The Navy still cannot afford to move portions of its fleet down to its Mayport__, Fla., __facility, despite the service's continued investment into its shipyards__ headquartered __there__. __At issue is a proposed plan to move one of the Navy's aircraft carriers from__ the service's main shipyard in __Norfolk__ ,Va., __down to__ the __Mayport__ facility. Service officials announced it would be moving a Marine Corps Amphibious Ready Group down to Florida on June 16. The first of those three ships in the group, the USS New York, will head down to Mayport by 2013. The USS Iwo Jima and USS Fort McHenry will follow in 2014, according to a service statement. But __due to increasing pressure on the Navy's bottom line, service officials have yet to pull the trigger on the carrier move__, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Jonathan Greenert said on Wednesday. " __We're upgrading the pier in Mayport__ . It will be able to take a carrier visit and be able to do some maintenance there," Greenert told reporters at the Pentagon. "[But] __right now we just don't have the__ fiscal __resources to conduct a carrier move__ ." The Florida and Virginia congressional delegations have been battling over the proposed carrier move on Capitol Hill since the Navy began considering the shift. Rep. Ander Crenshaw (R-Fla.) hailed the Marine Corps deployment to Mayport as a boon for the state's floundering shipbuilding industry. However, the Florida Republican said he would continue to push for a carrier deployment to Mayport, in spite of the Navy's fiscal woes. “My fight continues for all parts of the Mayport equation, including the future homeporting of a nuclear aircraft carrier,” he said in a statement released shortly after the Navy announced its plans for the Marine Corps Ready Group. Proponents of the carrier move argue that __having the ships deployed to different points along the Eastern seaboard would make them less susceptible to a Pearl Harbor-type attack.__ __Currently, all Navy carriers deployed on the East Coast are stationed in Norfolk__.
 * The Navy is funding upgrades at Naval Station Mayport now but has canceled funding necessary to permanently base carriers—that leaves the entire fleet vulnerable due to concentration at Norfolk**
 * THE HILL 6-27-2012** (“Navy move to Mayport still unaffordable, says Greenert,” http://thehill.com/blogs/defcon-hill/navy/235165-navy-move-to-mayport-still-unaffordable-says-greenert)

**Naval Power.**
Thompson 09, Chief Operating Officer at the Lexington Institute, PhD in government from Georgetown, (Loren, March 10th, “Navy Will Offer Up Carrier & Air Wing in Quadrennial Review”, http://lexingtoninstitute.org/1383.shtml) Of course, today's carriers make World War Two carriers look like toys. With nuclear propulsion, supersonic fighters, and over four acres of deck space, they are the biggest warships in history. But at any given time some are being repaired, some are being replenished, some are in training and some are in transit; if the fleet is cut to ten then maybe half a dozen will be available for quick action on any given day. Congress didn't think that was enough, so it mandated in law that at least eleven carriers must be maintained in the force. But with big bills coming from the Obama Administration and other items like healthcare costs pressuring Navy budgets, the service has repeatedly sought relief from that requirement. This year's quadrennial review is the likely venue for another such bid. The issue is coming to a head now because the pace of new carrier commissionings is not keeping up with the rate of retirements. Kitty Hawk, the last carrier in the fleet powered by fossil fuels, was removed from the force last summer after nearly 50 years of service. The Navy plans to decommission the nuclear-powered Enterprise in November of 2012, leaving the fleet with only the ten flattops of the Nimitz class for three years, until the next-generation Ford class of carriers debuts in September of 2015. Going to ten isn't supposed to happen under present law, but since the service hasn't made budgetary provisions for maintaining the Enterprise and its crew until the Ford class arrives, it looks like ten carriers will be the total number in the fleet. In the current budget environment, once the Navy gets used to having ten carriers, that's probably where it will stay. Navy insiders think the service will decide to forego the refueling of the Lincoln, which is scheduled for 2012. And when the decision to stay at ten is formalized, the service can also move to eliminate one of its carrier wings. That step would cut the Navy's projected shortfall in strike aircraft by half. So billions of dollars are saved by skipping the refueling, cutting the purchase of aircraft, and eliminating the need to sustain 6,000 personnel associated with ship operations and air-wing support. There's only one problem with all this. It reduces the nation's capacity to project power from the sea at the same time access to foreign bases is becoming doubtful. And why is such a move necessary? Because the Obama Administration has decided to stick with Bush-era plans to grow the size of ground forces by 92,000 personnel, and the Navy must pay part of the bill for that. Yet the administration is getting ready to depart Iraq, which was the main reason for increasing the size of ground forces in the first place. There are precious few other places where the warfighting scenarios for the next QDR suggest a big ground force will be needed. Most of the scenarios envision reliance on air power for the big fights of the future -- the kind of air power delivered by carriers. So cutting carriers to build a bigger ground force doesn't make much sense.
 * Carrier reductions are coming now—maintaining the fleet is key to US power**

State government facilities include those owned or leased by all levels of government and can be located domestically and overseas. Many of these facilities such as courthouses, education facilities, libraries, and archives are open to the public and provide important government services. Other facilities contain highly sensitive information, materials, processes, and equipment such as military installations, embassies, and research facilities and are not open to the public. These facilities, varied in function, size, and location, are differentiated from other CIKR sectors because they are uniquely governmental. __The abundance of government facilities and military__ related __infrastructure in Virginia coupled with their symbolic nature and past attacks on such infrastructure in the U.S. suggests this sector remains especially vulnerable to exploitation by terrorist and extremist groups__. Potential Trend(s) Impacting Sector __Due to the desire of most international and many domestic groups to target the U.S. government, trends of significance include terrorism tradecraft techniques of surveillance, elicitation, and security probes__. The trend of illicit entry into the U.S. also affects this sector, as many individuals will enter government facilities to obtain necessary documentation. __Local, state, and federal government facilities are highly interconnected, both physically and through cyber networks__. Efforts to identify, understand, and analyze interdependencies and dependencies are challenging because of the diversity and complexity of these facilities or components. Interdependencies vary widely and each has its own characteristics, whether physical, cyber, or geographic in nature. Virginia facilities may be impacted by the closure of Guantanamo Bay; a recent report by the House Armed Services Committee has recommended government sites in Quantico and Norfolk as possible transfer locations for current Guantanamo detainees. According to early February 2009 reporting, a task force has 30 days to recommend where to put the 245 remaining detainees.451 Potential Threat Group(s) Local, state, and federal __government facilities represent attractive targets for a wide variety of groups__. While __international groups are__ most __likely to target__ the __military__ and federal sector __assets as symbols of the West__, domestic movements including anarchists, black separatists, white nationalists, and homegrown extremists have conducted activities targeting facilities at various levels of government. Domestic Incidents On a national level, __numerous reports of surveillance and security probes against military installations continue__. These reports include incidents of elicitation as well as security breaches involving the use of fraudulent military and law enforcement credentials. Although the vast majority of these incidents have not been definitely linked to terrorism, the continued reporting of preoperationaltype surveillance merits increased vigilance.452 Virginia The Virginia Fusion Center has not received a significant number of unresolved reports pertaining to general government facilities. __Much__ more __reporting has been received regarding suspicious activity around military bases__. It is unclear at this time if this disparity reflects actual rates of occurrence or if this is due to the increased security awareness inherent in military force protection. Examples of suspicious activity pertaining to Virginia include: • Suspicious attempts to purchase military uniforms near Yorktown453 • Persistent attempts to bypass security controls by a group of subjects at Fort Story454 • Suspicious photography of the entrance gate to the Naval Weapons Laboratory at Dahlgren455 The Virginia Fusion Center does not currently possess active threat information against any of these facilities, nor is there any evidence of patterns in the timing, location, or individuals involved in these incidents. Intelligence Gaps 1. Have suspicious employment inquiries been received at Virginia’s government or DIB facilities? 2. Have any possible surveillance activities of any building or assets associated with government or DIB assets occurred? 3. Have suspicious inquiries about security measures been received? 4. How frequently are unauthorized attempts to access government or DIB facilities in Virginia discovered? 5. Have there been any threats against government or DIB staff or officials? 6. Have any concerns regarding potential misconduct by current or recently separated employees been received? Projections __The__ Government Buildings and __Military Installations sector is expected to remain an important and potentially vulnerable sector at risk for surveillance, infiltration, or attacks__ by groups with nefarious intentions. It is anticipated the VFC will continue to receive reporting of potential surveillance or probing of government and military facilities. __Interest as a Target: Remain High - Due to the symbolic nature and the potential operational disruption__, facilities within this sector may be desirable, if not necessarily feasible targets for many international and domestic groups. Number of Virginia-based assets: Remain Constant – Current economic conditions make expansion unlikely, but industries that support government and military functions will not likely face the same contraction of other sectors. Interdependencies: Significant - __These sectors are heavily reliant on energy, IT, and telecommunications, as well as each major transportation mode. The interruption of government__ or CIKR __could quickly cascade and have significant impact on other sectors,__ especially those that are highly regulated. As shown in the Terrorism Screening Center’s 2007 Virginia Terrorist Screening Database Encounters Report, __a number of potentially “watch-listed” subjects either applied for government and military positions or were involved in suspicious incidents near such facilities__. Although these instances have not been linked to specific plots, __these instances underscore the potential for infiltration or pre-incident activity__.
 * Terrorist attack at Norfolk is highly likely—even attacks against other infrastructure in Virginia will have ripple effects**
 * VFC 2009** (Virginia State Police Virginia Fusion Center, “2009 VIRGINIA TERRORISM THREAT ASSESSMENT COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF STATE POLICE VIRGINIA FUSION CENTER MARCH 2009,” http://rawstory.com/images/other/vafusioncenterterrorassessment.pdf)

HAMAS was created in 1987 by leaders of the Palestinian wing of the Muslim Brotherhood. Widely recognized as a terrorist organization, __HAMAS__ has governed the Gaza portion of the Palestinian Territories since July 2007 and __utilizes__ political power and social programs as well as __violent terrorist tactics to pursue the goal of establishing an Islamic Palestinian state__ in place of Israel.25 HAMAS, also known as the Islamic Resistance Movement, has also been involved in increasingly sophisticated methods of targeting children with their propaganda efforts.26 Domestic Activities __HAMAS has the largest U.S. presence of any Palestinian group, and maintains a complex fundraising, propaganda, and recruitment infrastructure__ .27 According to 2008 Terrorism Screening Center ground encounter data, __HAMAS was one of the three most frequently encountered groups in Virginia__ .28 In 2007, the TSC reported 189 total Virginia encounters with subjects tied to HAMAS in Virginia.29 Current estimates suggest that __numerous members, supporters, and sympathizers may reside in and near Virginia;__ these estimates appear to gain credibility from reports that several thousand protestors from the National Capitol area demonstrated in Washington, D.C. as a result of the most recent Gaza conflict.30 While no potential threats have been identified from HAMAS against targets in the U.S., members residing in Virginia have participated in fundraising and political activities to support the group. Subjects identified as defendants in the Holy Land Foundation trial have been tied to Arlington and Fairfax Counties.31 Additional __subjects with ties to HAMAS have been identified in Norfolk, Newport News,__ Chesterfield County, __and Falls Church__ .h
 * Hamas is a unique threat to Norfolk**
 * VFC 2009** (Virginia State Police Virginia Fusion Center, “2009 VIRGINIA TERRORISM THREAT ASSESSMENT COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF STATE POLICE VIRGINIA FUSION CENTER MARCH 2009,” http://rawstory.com/images/other/vafusioncenterterrorassessment.pdf)

As part of its plan to transport high-level radioactive waste to Western Shoshone Indian land at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the U.S. Department of Energy ( __DOE) proposes__ up to 334 barge shipments carrying giant high-level radioactive waste containers on the James River from the Surry nuclear power plant in Gravel Neck, Virginia __to the Port of Norfolk__. (See the second page of this fact sheet for a map of the proposed route). The James River, of course, is the lifeblood of numerous communities, including Newport News and Virginia Beach. __Accidents happen__. But what if high-level radioactive waste is involved? __Each barge sized container would hold the long-lasting radiological equivalent of 200 Hiroshima-sized bombs__. But U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) __design criteria__ for atomic waste transport containers __are woefully inadequate__. Rather than full-scale physical safety testing, scale model tests and computer simulations are all that is required. The underwater immersion design criteria are meant to “test” (on paper, at least) the integrity of a slightly damaged container submerged under 3 feet of water for 8 hours. An undamaged cask is “tested” (on computers, at least) for a 1 hour submersion under 656 feet of water. __But if a cask were accidentally immersed under water, or sunk by terrorists__, is it reasonable for NRC to assume that the cask would only be slightly damaged, or not damaged at all? Given that barge casks could weigh well over 100 tons (even up to 140 tons), __how____can NRC assume that they could be recovered from underwater__ within 1 hour, or even within 8 hours? Special cranes capable of lifting such heavy loads would have to be located, brought in, and set up. __Given the James River’s historic significance, as well as the U.S. Navy installations and tourist destinations around Norfolk, the potential for terrorist attack on these barge shipments is increased__.
 * High risk of radiological accidents and terrorism against Naval forces at Norfolk**
 * NIRS 2008** (Nuclear Information and Resource Service, “The Yucca Mountain Dump Plan Would Launch Up to 334 Barges of Deadly High-Level Radioactive Waste Onto the James River,” Date is Date Last Mod, Jan 21, http://www.nirs.org/factsheets/vabargefactsheet92804.pdf)

**Terrorism, natural disasters, foreign attack, and accidents all threaten US naval power—creation of a second carrier port is key to prevent this and increase readiness** **O’ROURKE 6-14-2012** (Ronald, Specialist in Naval Affairs with the Congressional Research Service, “Navy Nuclear Aircraft Carrier (CVN) Homeporting at Mayport: Background and Issues for Congress,” http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/R40248.pdf) A Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) on Mayport homeporting alternatives was released in November 2008. The FEIS examined 12 alternatives for homeporting additional surface ships at Mayport. Four of the 12 alternatives involved homeporting a CVN; another four involved making Mayport capable of homeporting a CVN, but not immediately homeporting a CVN there; and the remaining four did not involve making Mayport capable of homeporting a CVN. Ten of the 12 alternatives also involved transferring additional ships other than a CVN— various combinations of cruisers, destroyers, frigates, large-deck amphibious assault ships (LHDs), and other amphibious ships (LPDs and LSDs)—to Mayport. The FEIS also assessed a 13th alternative of homeporting no additional ships at Mayport. __Homeporting a single additional__ ship—a __CVN__ — __was Alternative 4__. The FEIS identified Alternative 4 as __the Navy’s preferred alternative__. The FEIS, like the January 2009 ROD, stated that a key reason for the Navy’s desire to transfer a CVN to Mayport is __to hedge against the risk of a catastrophic event that could damage the Navy’s CVN homeporting facilities in the Hampton Roads area__ of Virginia. The FEIS stated: Based on a thorough review of the alternatives, the Department of the Navy has determined Alternative 4 to be its Preferred Alternative. __Alternative 4 involves homeporting one CVN, dredging, infrastructure and wharf improvements, and construction of CVN nuclear propulsion plant maintenance facilities.__ Factors that influenced selection of Alternative 4 as the Preferred Alternative included impact analysis in the EIS, estimated costs of implementation, including military construction and other operation and sustainment costs, and strategic dispersal considerations. __Homeporting a CVN at NAVSTA Mayport would enhance distribution of CVN homeport locations to reduce risks to fleet resources in the event of natural disaster, manmade calamity, or attack by foreign nations or terrorists. This includes risks to aircraft carriers, industrial support facilities, and the people that operate and maintain those crucial assets__. __The aircraft carriers of the United States Navy are **vital strategic assets** that serve our national interests in both peace and war. The President calls upon them for their **unique ability** to provide **both deterrence and combat support** in times of crisis__. Of the 11 aircraft carriers currently in service, five are assigned to the Atlantic Fleet. __Utilizing the capacity at__ NAVSTA __Mayport__ to homeport a CVN __disperses critical Atlantic Fleet assets to reduce risks, thereby enhancing operational readiness. Operational readiness is **fundamental** **to the Navy’s mission**__ and obligation to the Commander in Chief.24

**Basing at Mayport independently increases deployment speed, fleet redundancy, and operational flexibility** **G.A.O. 2010** (DEFENSE INFRASTRUCTURE Opportunities Exist to Improve the Navy’s Basing Decision Process and DOD Oversight, May, http://www.gao.gov/assets/310/304353.pdf) According to Navy officials, the Department of the Navy made its recent decision to homeport a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier at Naval Station Mayport using its strategic laydown and strategic dispersal processes and its environmental planning guidance documents. In addition, the Navy stated in its record of decision that the most critical considerations in making the decision were the environmental impacts, recurring and nonrecurring costs associated with changes in surface ship homeporting options, and strategic dispersal considerations. However, according to its record of decision, the need to develop a hedge against the potentially **crippling results** of a **catastrophic event** was ultimately the determining factor in the Navy’s decision to establish a second nuclear-powered aircraft carrier homeport on the East Coast of the United States at Mayport. The Navy has historically had multiple aircraft carrier homeports on each coast. Currently, the Navy has three nuclear-powered aircraft carrier homeports on the West Coast —Bremerton and Everett, Washington, and San Diego, California— and one East Coast carrier homeport in the Hampton Roads area, which includes Norfolk and Newport News, Virginia.7 According to Navy officials,8 the Navy used elements of its strategic laydown process existing at the time the Mayport decision was in the process of being made to apportion the fleet to the Pacific (West) Coast, to the Atlantic (East) Coast based on its force structure analysis. According to officials, the process relies on several documents, including conventional campaign plans; homeland defense requirements; the Cooperative Strategy for the 21st Century Seapower, Navy 2030 Ashore Vision; the 2001 and 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review, and the Global Maritime Posture. Based on these strategic laydown analyses, the Navy developed a baseline for the total Navy force structure to try to optimize the sourcing of forces based on the speed of response, the maritime strategy, and the Quadrennial Defense Review direction. Using the output from the strategic laydown process, Navy officials said that they performed its strategic dispersal process, which allowed the Navy to further assess and determine the distribution of the fleet by homeport based on strategic requirements and the ability to balance operational, fiscal, and infrastructure factors. Based on its analysis, the Navy decided to establish a second East Coast homeport for a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. Navy officials said that the Navy worked on the assumption that it would not establish a new carrier homeport but upgrade an existing carrier homeport to support nuclear-powered aircraft carriers. Navy officials said that Naval Station Mayport was the best option because it was an existing conventional carrier homeport with underutilized facilities since the USS John F. Kennedy was retired in 2007. According to Navy officials, the Navy used its strategic dispersal process to evaluate key operational factors, such as response time to combatant commands, transit times to deployment areas and training, geographic location of air wings, historic aircraft carrier loading, physical pier capacity, transit times for pier side to open ocean, antiterrorism and force protection, and mitigation of natural and man-made risks for both the Hampton Roads area and Naval Station Mayport. For example, the Navy believes the following constitute risk factors associated with the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier consolidation in Hampton Roads : (1) singular homeport, maintenance, and support location ; (2) all of the Atlantic Fleet nuclear-powered aircraft carrier trained crews, associated community support infrastructure, and nuclear carrier support facilities within a 15 nautical mile radius ; (3) single 32 nautical mile access channel with two major choke points (bridges); (4) approximately 3-hour transit time from carrier piers to open ocean; and (5) the planned significant increase in commercial shipping volume because of the planned Craney Island upgrades. Furthermore, the Navy used the U.S. Coast Guard’s Port Threat Assessments for the Coast Guard Sectors of Hampton Roads and Mayport, which determined that the overall threat level for Hampton Roads is moderate, whilethe overall threat level for Mayport is low. According to the threat assessments, a moderate threat level indicatesa potential threat exists against the port and that one or more groups have either the intention or capability to employ large casualty-production attacks or cause denial of commercial, military, and passenger vessel access to the port, while a low threat level indicates that little or no information exists on one or more groups with a capability or intention to damage the port. Navy officials also identified the following benefits associated with homeporting a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier at Naval Station Mayport : • the shortest access to the Atlantic Ocean of any current Navy homeport, • additional dispersed controlled industrial facility and nuclear maintenance capabilities , • physical separation of East Coast nuclear-powered aircraft carriers , • physical separation between piers and shipping lanes , • smaller commercial shipping traffic volume, and • strategic and operational flexibility.

**Mayport basing enhances surge capacity** **NAVFAC 2008** (Naval Facilities Engineering Command, NAVFAC Southeast, “Final EIS for the proposed homeporting of additional surface ships at Naval Station Mayport, FL Vol I: Final Environmental Impact Statement,” November, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ada491893) The purpose of the proposed action is to ensure effective support of fleet operational requirements through efficient use of waterfront and shore side facilities at NAVSTA Mayport. The 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review ( QDR) called for the Department of Defense (DoD) to be capable of swiftly defeating aggression in overlapping conflicts worldwide. This required the Navy to modify its operational philosophy and to ensure it was capable of providing more warfighting assets, more quickly, to multiple locations. In Navy terms, this is called surge capability – or the ability to send trained naval battle forces in addition to those currently deployed. The Navy adopted the Fleet Response Plan (FRP) institutionalizing an enhanced naval surge capability. Under the guidance of USFF, the fleet training cycle has been adjusted with refined maintenance, modernization, manning, and training processes to enable the fleet to consistently sustain a level of at least six surge capable carrier strike groups available within 30 days, and one additional strike group able to deploy within 90 days of an emergency order. Achieving this higher level of surge capability is a difficult task requiring Navy ships and Sailors to maintain an appropriate level of training (or readiness) for longer periods of time, while continuing to achieve ship maintenance and Sailor quality of life standards. The Navy has developed plans for ashore infrastructure to ensure appropriate support of the FRP and the Navy’s required operational battle force. While budgetary decisions drive the trend to consolidate or reduce the number of Navy bases overall, retaining bases in dispersed locations nationwide and worldwide supports the FRP and the operational battle force. Required capabilities at Navy bases are driven by strategic/geographic location and fleet operational readiness. USFF has finite berthing capacity for surface ships in the turning basin at NAVSTA Mayport. NAVSTA Mayport also has established shore support capacity for ship maintenance and repair, as well as military personnel support facilities, not being fully utilized. The Navy will begin in 2010 to decommission frigates currently homeported at NAVSTA Mayport. The Navy needs to utilize the available facilities at NAVSTA Mayport, both pierside and shoreside, in an effective and efficient manner, thereby minimizing new construction. The CNO has directed USFF to review and assess a broad range of options for homeporting additional surface ships at NAVSTA Mayport. Consideration of NAVSTA Mayport as a homeport for any of the classes of ships being discussed in the FEIS is based on the following: • Use of NAVSTA Mayport helps preserve distribution of homeport locations and ports to reduce the risks to fleet resources in the event of natural disaster, manmade calamity, or attack by foreign nations or terrorists ; • Full use of NAVSTA Mayport preserves the capabilities of the Jacksonville Fleet Concentration Area, which supports U.S. based naval surge capability ; and • Utilization of NAVSTA Mayport helps optimize fleet access to naval training ranges and operating areas by retaining ship homeport locations within six hours transit time of local operating areas.

**Surge capacity is key to Naval power** **GLOBAL SECURITY 2011** (“Fleet Response Plan,” May 7, http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/frp.htm) The Fleet Response Plan, adopted in 2003, calls for six of the Navy's 12 aircraft carriers to be available for deployment within 30 daysand another two to be available in 90 days. Typically, the Navy will have two carriers based in the United States deployed overseas, in addition to one carrier permanently stationed in Japan. The requirement to be able to swiftly defeat aggression in overlapping conflicts called for in the 2001 QDR has necessitated a focus on developing new surge capabilities to complement and capitalize on our current competency in providing immediately employable forward-deployed naval forces. The recently created Fleet Response Plan (FRP) will significantly increase the rate at which we can augment deployed forces as contingencies require. Under the regular rotation approach, the training, manning, maintenance, and readiness funding practices of the Inter-Deployment Readiness Cycle (IDRC) were optimized to meet the requirements of Global Naval Forward Presence Policy. While a modest number of forward deployed units were at peak readiness, the majority of ships and associated units were not deployed and thus at a point in their IDRC that made it difficult and expensive to swiftly "surge" to a crisis, conflict or for Homeland Defense. The FRP features a change in readiness posture that institutionalizes an enhanced surge capability for the Navy. Under the guidance of Commander Fleet Forces Command (CFFC), a revised IDRC is being developed that meets the demand for a more responsive force. With refined maintenance, modernization, manning and training processes, as well as fully-funded readiness accounts, the Fleet can consistently sustain a level of at least 6 surge-capable carrier strike groups, with two additional strike groups able to deploy within approximately 90 days of an emergency order. In parallel with this, the Naval Reserve Force is embarked on a fully integrated active-reserve transformation to a more flexible unit structure. Part of this transformation is focused on providing a rapid surge capability of skilled aviators who have trained with active-duty units to reinforce them and rapidly boost their ability to generate combat sorties. The enhanced and expanded readiness availability delivered by the Fleet Response Plan provides the President with unprecedented responsiveness. Instead of predictable, lock-step, 6-month deployments to pre-determined regions in support of the Global Naval Forward Presence Policy, the Flexible Deployment Concept allows units that have attained high readiness to embark on deployments of varied duration in support of specific national priorities such as Homeland Defense, multi-national exercises, security cooperation events, deterrent operations, or prosecution of the Global War on Terrorism. often in multi-Carrier Strike Group formations. These deployments provide "presence with a purpose" and can also occur in less predictable patterns, thereby forcing potential adversaries to adjust to our operational timelines. The sustained readiness created via the Fleet Response Plan will enable the Flexible Deployment Concept. Flexible Deployment Concept implementation will occur under the emerging Joint Presence Policy. Naval implementation of these new presence requirements will be carefully monitored to ensure that schedules and OPTEMPO standards are adhered to so that our unprecedented force levels will not result in uncertainties for our sailors or allies. The military build-up for and waging of Operation Iraqi Freedom dramatically impacted the IDTC and the deployment schedules of the Navy's aircraft carriers as six carriers were sent to the Persian Gulf and another carrier was sent to fill the vacuum left by the Kitty Hawk's deployment to the Persian Gulf. In some instances carriers were surged earlier than expected and in other cases carriers experienced an extended deployment, most notably the USS Abraham Lincoln, who deployed in July 2002 and did not return to the US until May 2003. Prior to OIF the Navy began to experiment with an altered IDTC that reduced the time that a carrier would spend in the yard and accelerated the ships training cycle. The USS Carl Vinson returned from a deployment on January 23, 2002 and after spending roughly 4 months in the yard began sea trials and its IDTC in September. The Vinson had completed its COMPTUEX by late November, its JTFEX in January and was deployed on February 6, 2003. In March 2003, the Chief of Naval Operations released his "Culture of Readiness" message to the Navy that directed Commander, Fleet Forces Command to develop IDTC processes and milestones that would improve the speed of response for the full combat power of the Navy. The CFFC convened a working group composed of fleet and TYCOM representatives and developed a fleet response concept that would make the necessary changes to attain the increased readiness and responsiveness. In May 2003, the Navy issued a message to major commands describing the Fleet Response Plan which would dramatically alter the IDTC and the way in which the Navy leadership viewed deployments. The FRP would shift the focus away from rotational deployments and presence to being capable of surging substantial forces, ideally 6 surge ready carrier strike groups and 2 carrier strike groups that would follow shortly thereafter. In addition, under FRP, eight out of 10 of the Navy's submarines are able to respond to emergent fleet requirements at any time. To meet this objective the Navy intends to extend the interval between maintenance periods and modify training and manpower processes. The Navy also adopted a mindset of "R+plus" (R=return) rather than "D-minus" (D=Deploy). The idea being that working up for a scheduled deployment was not as important as being available as quickly as possible from the end of the last deployment. Instead of the rather vague "surge status" or "deployed status" the Navy created emergency surge status, surge ready status, and routine deployable. Emergency surge assets are those that would be employed in cases of urgent need. Attaining emergency surge status occurs upon completion of the Basic phase of the IDTC. "Emergency Surge" status should be attained with three to four months of the completion of its maintenance period. Surge ready status are those assets that can deploy upon completion of the intermediate phase of the IDTC. Ships should attain Surge Ready status within six months of the completion of its maintenance period. Routine deployable is equivalant to completion of the current IDTC. The goal of the current new concept would be to move assets through the IDTC as quickly as possible and conducting refesher training to insure readiness. The FRP was instituted by July 1, 2003 and the 6+2 surge goals were completed by December 1, 2003. Maintaining the Fleet Readiness Plan (FRP) construct of six aircraft carriers available within 30 days plus two additional carriers available within 90 days is a difficult task. Maintenance requirements on carriers alone make satisfying the FRP a challenging scheduling problem. By increasing the average cycle time for a Carrier Strike Group (CSG) to 27 months, the FRP requirements can be met continuously, after an initial maintenance adjustment period of 62 months. During the summer of 2004 the Navy surged some aircraft carriers from their homeports. to generate as many as seven of 12 carriers on station. for Coalition operations. The ability to push that kind of military capability to the four corners of the world is quite remarkable and recent. Several years ago, the Navy could deploy only two. Through this series of deployments, surge operations and exercises, the Navy will demonstrate and exercise a new approach to operations and maintenance.

**Even if carrier reliance is bad, we won’t change it—it’s only a question of effectiveness** **REUTERS 5-6-10** (“Navy to Gates: Yes, we need 11 aircraft carriers,” http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/05/07/us-navy-usa-carriers-idUSTRE6460AN20100507) "The Navy remains firmly committed to maintaining a force of 11 carriers for the next three decades," Sean Stackley, the service's warship buyer, told the Senate Armed Services Seapower subcommittee on Thursday. The 11-carrier force structure is based on "world-wide presence requirements, surge availability, training and exercise, and maintenance" needs, he said in an opening statement.

__In the future, the demand for the Navy will continue to be part of an activist US foreign policy. There is no end in sight for coalition leadership, counter-terrorism on a global scale, or the use of U.S. forces to demonstrate commitment and resolve in areas of interest__. The importance of access secured by continuous Department of Defense and Department of State efforts with partners will support this global presence. __U.S. interests in securing the__ global commons ( __sea__, air, space, cyber) __will remain in place, and the U.S. will remain the guarantor of security for democratic nations through its near monopoly on high-end military power and defensive systems. Continued demand for active peacetime engagement by the U.S. military will be met by maritime diplomacy to support administration priorities and to support security cooperation activities__ by COCOMs.
 * Naval reliance is also inevitable**
 * WHITENECK 2010** (Daniel Whiteneck • Michael Price • Neil Jenkins •Peter Swartz, CNA Analysis & Solutions, “The Navy at a Tipping Point: Maritime Dominance at Stake?” March, http://www.public.navy.mil/usff/documents/navy_at_tipping_point.pdf)

Second, __no other country (or combination of countries) will create the forces required for a navy with global influence. America’s European allies, and its Asian allies as well, have created navies that are capable of sustained regional operations__, or routine “cruising” by small squadrons of surface ships that show the flag, conduct engagement and exercises, and demonstrate national interest in economic ties with the visited nations and regions. These navies can also conduct short-term surges for uses of force against low end threats or act as supporters to USN-led naval operations; __however persistent out-of-area operations (even by a low number of assets) would quickly deplete their resources and political support at home__.
 * No one can fill in for US naval power**
 * WHITENECK 2010** (Daniel Whiteneck • Michael Price • Neil Jenkins •Peter Swartz, CNA Analysis & Solutions, “The Navy at a Tipping Point: Maritime Dominance at Stake?” March, http://www.public.navy.mil/usff/documents/navy_at_tipping_point.pdf)

**Effective carrier forces are key to diplomatic and military power—presence alone defuses conflicts before they start even when the US has no allied support** **EAGLAN 2008** (Mackenzie Eaglen is Senior Policy Analyst for National Security at The Heritage Foundation, “Aircraft Carriers Are Crucial,” July 31, Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/30/AR2008073003078.html) For any U.S. president, the aircraft carrier embodies the ultimate crisis management tool. Continuously deployed throughout the globe, carrier-strike groups give our military unparalleled freedom of action to respond to a range of combat and non-combat missions. The recent George Washington incident only further emphasizes the significance of maintaining a robust carrier fleet, one large enough to meet all contingencies and "surge" in crises, no matter what may happen. Carriers can move large contingents of forces and their support to distant theaters, respond rapidly to changing tactical situations, support several missions simultaneously, and, perhaps most importantly, guarantee access to any region in the world. In a time when America's political relationships with other countries can shift almost overnight, aircraft carriers can reduce America's reliance on others -- often including suspect regimes -- for basing rights. A carrier's air wing can typically support 125 sorties a day at a distance up to 750 nautical miles. They also operate as a hub in the strike group's command, control, communications and intelligence network, playing an increasingly larger role in controlling the battlespace at sea. Whether in a direct or support role, carriers have taken part in almost every major military operation the U.S. has undertaken since the Second World War. They also serve as first-rate diplomatic tools to either heighten or ease political pressure. When tensions with North Korea or Iran increase, a carrier, or sometimes two, is sent to patrol off their coast. And when an election takes place in a nascent democracy or country central to U.S. interests, a strike group typically is sailing offshore. In March, when Taiwan held important presidential elections that will chart the future of that country's relationship with China, both the Kitty Hawk and Nimitz trolled nearby to ensure a smooth transition of events and deliver a psychological message of U.S. interest.

**Forward-deployed carriers are key to US deterrence—solves terrorism, regional war, WMD attacks, and terrorism** **PIENO 1993** (John, retired Navy captain, commanded the carrier Forrestal, “Why We Need 12 Aircraft Carriers,” New York Times, Sept 6, http://www.nytimes.com/1993/09/06/opinion/l-why-we-need-12-aircraft-carriers-511193.html) Your view is contrary to that of the majority of knowledgeable people who have thought about how to protect America's national security interests in the years ahead. Civilian analysts, professors, members of Congress, think tanks and even the Clinton Administration have concluded that forward presence and mobility are essential elements of a post-cold war national security strategy. When the United States military presence is declining around the world and overseas bases are being closed, the Navy and its aircraft carriers are more important than ever. Every President since World War II has found it necessary to ask, "Where are the carriers, and how fast can we get them there?" President Clinton, in his first six months, has had to deploy aircraft carriers to Somalia, Iraq and the Balkans. The carrier's flexibility and awesome military power make it an effective Presidential tool in managing crises. The presence of a carrier can often stabilize a crisis and prevent hostilities or limit their spread. We saw the value of aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf war. They were on the scene within 48 hours of the invasion of Kuwait by Saddam Hussein, and many believe that the presence of the carriers prevented him from invading Saudi Arabia and its oilfields. The carriers and their aircraft were also an important part of the military campaign that freed Kuwait and defeated the Iraqi army. While the number of aircraft carriers may be subject to discussion and debate, it is important to remember that even with 12 aircraft carriers, the United States cannot maintain a full-time carrier presence in the most important regions of the world -- the Mediterranean, the Western Pacific, the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean. If the United States were to reduce its carrier force to 10 or fewer carriers there would be gaps of as long as four months in carrier presence in these regions. Further, our sailors and airmen are already stretched beyond breaking point with long deployments to meet crises around the world. To reduce the number of carriers further would be foolish. The so-called new world order is one of uncertainty and danger. Proliferation of nuclear and chemical weapons, along with Scud missiles, provides more countries and even terrorist groups with the capability to threaten United States security. We need a strong Navy and a strong carrier force to meet the unknown dangers of the years ahead. In my 25 years of naval service, I served in virtually every trouble spot of the world aboard aircraft carriers. They send a powerful signal to friend and foe alike.

__The combination of horror and outrage that will surge upon the nation will demand that the president retaliate__ for the incomprehensible damage done by the attack. The problem will be that __the president will not immediately know how to respond or against whom__. The perpetrators will have been incinerated by the explosion that destroyed New York City. Unlike 9-11, there will have been no interval during the attack when those hijacked could make phone calls to loved ones telling them before they died that the hijackers were radical Islamic extremists. There will be no such phone calls when the attack will not have been anticipated until the instant the terrorists detonate their improvised nuclear device inside the truck parked on a curb at the Empire State Building. Nor will there be any possibility of finding any clues, which either were vaporized instantly or are now lying physically inaccessible under tons of radioactive rubble. Still, the president, members of Congress, the military, and the public at large will suspect another attack by our known enemy – Islamic terrorists. __The first impulse will be to launch a nuclear strike on Mecca__, to destroy the whole religion of Islam. Medina could possibly be added to the target list just to make the point with crystal clarity. Yet what would we gain? The moment Mecca and Medina were wiped off the map, __the Islamic world__ – more than 1 billion human beings in countless different nations – __would feel attacked. Nothing would emerge intact after a war between the__ United States __and Islam. The apocalypse would be upon us__. Then, too, we would face an immediate threat from our long-term enemy, the former Soviet Union. Many in __the Kremlin would see this as an opportunity to grasp__ the __victory__ that had been snatched from them by Ronald Reagan when the Berlin Wall came down. __A missile strike by the Russians on a score of American cities could possibly be pre-emptive__. Would the U.S. strategic defense system be so in shock that immediate retaliation would not be possible? __Hardliners in Moscow might argue that there was never a better opportunity to destroy America__. In China, our newer Communist enemies might not care if we could retaliate. With a population already over 1.3 billion people and with their population not concentrated in a few major cities, __the Chinese might calculate to initiate a nuclear blow__ on the United States. What if the United States retaliated with a nuclear counterattack upon China? The Chinese might be able to absorb the blow and recover. __The North Koreans might calculate even more recklessly.__ Why not launch upon America the few missiles they have that could reach our soil? More confusion and chaos might only advance their position. If Russia, China, and the United States could be drawn into attacking one another, North Korea might emerge stronger just because it was overlooked while the great nations focus on attacking one another.
 * Terrorism causes nuclear war**
 * CORSI**, **2005** .Jerome, PhD in political science from Harvard. excerpt from Atomic Iran, http://911review.org/Wget/worldnetdaily.com/NYC_hit_by_terrorist_nuke.html.

**Reduction in carrier presence would tip the balance away from US naval dominance and cause war in the Middle East** __Is there a logical “tipping point” that can be__ numerically __assigned?__ Is a 285 ship-Navy the tipping point, or is it at 250, or 230? __At what number, does the Navy reach a point where it is no longer able to project combat credibility with constant forward presence?__ Is the Navy able to deter and reassure at 230 ships? __It depends__. We have defined a “global navy.” We have assessed what it is asked to do by the political leadership and what it will be asked to do in an evolving world of rising powers, rogue nations, and threats from non-state actors. We conclude that __there is not a specific number at which the navy ceases to be “the global navy.” It depends on how one defines the threat environment, the demand signal, and the objectives of naval forces within the foreign policy__. __The Navy can remain the global maritime power__ with either the 2 hub or 1+ hubWESTPAC option. Both preserve a global presence for the Navy __and__ allow it to __be a force for reassuring allies, deterring the major maritime challenger, and working__ within joint and combined environments __to address the security threats in the two top priority areas of global politics for the foreseeable future__. The Shaping and Surge options sacrifice either presence or combat credibility to an extent that threatens the Navy’s ability to maintain its status. They could be chosen only within the context of major changes in U.S. foreign policies; an acceptance of a much diminished role for the United States as a leader willing to act only in concert with other nations in protecting the global system from low-end threats, or a neoisolationist America willing to go it alone on high-end threats and letting other issues resolve themselves at the local and regional levels. If the Navy refuses to choose an option, it faces the prospect of a long, slow glide into the Shrinking Status Quo. This would be a navy 20 percent smaller than the one we have now, with the same balance of forces. It will fall through the capacity and capability necessary for either a 2-hub or 1+ hub navy to be constantly present overseas or to be dominant up and down the escalation ladder, without making the strategic choices to be either a shaping or surge force. Our most relevant example of a navy that faced this choice in the past was the Royal Navy in the early part of the 20th Century. It had maintained a policy of meeting two challengers and carrying out what we would call maritime security operations throughout the empire since the end of the Napoleonic Wars in 1815. It was the undisputed “global navy,” but it faced rising powers in Germany and the United States, domestic spending pressures, and new alignments on the continent in Europe. The British Government (with the Royal Navy as an active participant in the decision process) chose to re-orient its foreign and security policies to meet the German threat, leave the Western Atlantic and Eastern Pacific to the United States, and assume what we would call a 1+ hub strategy. It was able to meet the threat of Germany, contribute to the Triple Entente with France and Russia, forge a treaty with Japan that lasted through World War I, and meet all of its empire maritime policing needs. It was not these decisions that drained the treasury, but four years of war in Europe and its toll on the British Army and nation. Without an empire to police, might __the United States__ be able to carry out the 2-hub strategy? It does not have the luxury of the British who faced only one potential threat. It __faces a current fight (Islamic terror, Afghanistan, Iranian adventurism) in CENTCOM and a potential future fight requiring deterrence and reassurance to meet a traditional rising national challenger. Both situations require a combat-credible, visible presence by naval forces for prompt denial, escalation and de-escalation dominance, deterrence by denial__ (missile defense), __and assured access__. On the other hand, the maritime security operations in other areas of the world can be addressed in large part by local and regional efforts, with the U.S. playing a supporting role. __The inherent flexibility of naval people and platforms and assets has been proven again and again. The ability of high-end assets to flex for a number of missions along the spectrum of operations has been a staple of deployments by carrier strike groups and their escorts and their air assets. What has not been proven is the ability of a global navy to use forces that are not dominant or not____present overseas to deter challengers, deny regional aggressors, or reassure partners. When you are no longer present in **one or two areas** of vital national interest with dominant maritime forces, you are at the “**tipping point**__ .”
 * WHITENECK 2010** (Daniel Whiteneck • Michael Price • Neil Jenkins •Peter Swartz, CNA Analysis & Solutions, “The Navy at a Tipping Point: Maritime Dominance at Stake?” March, http://www.public.navy.mil/usff/documents/navy_at_tipping_point.pdf)

in the Context of International Relations”] __The Middle East conflict is unparalleled in terms of **its potential for spreading globally**. During the Cold War__, amid which the Arab-Israeli conflict evolved, __the two opposing superpowers directly supported the conflicting parties__ : the Soviet Union supported Arab countries, while the United States supported Israel. On the one hand, the bipolar world order which existed at that time objectively played in favor of the escalation of the Middle East conflict into a global confrontation. On the other hand, __the Soviet Union and the United States__ were not interested in such developments and they __managed to keep the situation under control. The behavior of both superpowers in the course of all the wars in the Middle East proves that__. In 1956, during the Anglo-French-Israeli military invasion of Egypt (which followed Cairo’s decision to nationalize the Suez Canal Company) the United States – contrary to the widespread belief in various countries, including Russia – not only refrained from supporting its allies but insistently pressed – along with the Soviet Union – for the cessation of the armed action. Washington feared that the tripartite aggression would undermine the positions of the West in the Arab world and would result in a direct clash with the Soviet Union. __Fears that hostilities in the Middle East might acquire a global dimension could materialize also during the Six-Day War__ of 1967. On its eve, Moscow and Washington urged each other to cool down their “clients.” When the war began, both superpowers assured each other that they did not intend to get involved in the crisis militarily and that that they would make efforts at the United Nations to negotiate terms for a ceasefire. On July 5, the Chairman of the Soviet Government, Alexei Kosygin, who was authorized by the Politburo to conduct negotiations on behalf of the Soviet leadership, for the first time ever used a hot line for this purpose. After the USS //Liberty// was attacked by Israeli forces, which later claimed the attack was a case of mistaken identity, U.S. President Lyndon Johnson immediately notified Kosygin that the movement of the U.S. Navy in the Mediterranean Sea was only intended to help the crew of the attacked ship and to investigate the incident. The situation repeated itself during the hostilities of October 1973. Russian publications of those years argued that it was the Soviet Union that prevented U.S. military involvement in those events. In contrast, many U.S. authors claimed that a U.S. reaction thwarted Soviet plans to send troops to the Middle East. Neither statement is true. The atmosphere was really quite tense. Sentiments both in Washington and Moscow were in favor of interference, yet both capitals were far from taking real action. When U.S. troops were put on high alert, Henry Kissinger assured Soviet Ambassador Anatoly Dobrynin that this was done largely for domestic considerations and should not be seen by Moscow as a hostile act. In a private conversation with Dobrynin, President Richard Nixon said the same, adding that he might have overreacted but that this had been done amidst a hostile campaign against him over Watergate. Meanwhile, Kosygin and Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko at a Politburo meeting in Moscow strongly rejected a proposal by Defense Minister Marshal Andrei Grechko to “demonstrate” Soviet military presence in Egypt in response to Israel’s refusal to comply with a UN Security Council resolution. Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev took the side of Kosygin and Gromyko, saying that he was against any Soviet involvement in the conflict. __The above suggests an unequivocal conclusion that control by the superpowers in the bipolar world did not allow the Middle East conflict to escalate into a global confrontation__. __After the__ end of the __Cold War, some__ scholars and political observers __concluded that a real threat of the__ Arab-Israeli __conflict going____beyond regional frameworks ceased to exist. However, in **the 21st century this conclusion no longer conforms to the reality**__. The U.S. military __operation in Iraq has changed the balance of forces__ in the Middle East. __The disappearance of the Iraqi counterbalance has brought Iran to the fore as a____regional power__ claiming a direct role in various Middle East processes. I do not belong to those who believe that the Iranian leadership has already made a political decision to create nuclear weapons of its own. Yet Tehran seems to have set itself the goal of achieving a technological level that would let it make such a decision (the “Japanese model”) under unfavorable circumstances. __Israel already possesses nuclear weapons and delivery vehicles__. In such circumstances, __the absence of a Middle East settlement opens **a dangerous prospect of a nuclear collision** in the region__, __which would have **catastrophic consequences for the whole world**__**.**__The transition to a multipolar world has objectively strengthened the role of states and____organizations that are directly involved in regional conflicts, which increases the__ latter’s __danger and reduces the possibility of controlling them. This refers, above all, to the Middle East conflict.__ The coming of Barack Obama to the presidency has allayed fears that the United States could deliver a preventive strike against Iran (under George W. Bush, it was one of the most discussed topics in the United States). However, fears have increased that such a strike can be launched //Yevgeny Primakov// 1 3 2 RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS VOL. 7 • No. 3 • JULY – SEPTEMBER• 2009 by Israel, which would have unpredictable consequences for the region and beyond. It seems that President Obama’s position does not completely rule out such a possibility.
 * Middle East war goes global and nuclear**
 * PRIMAKOV 2009** [September, Yevgeny, President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation; Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences; member of the Editorial Board of //Russia in Global Affairs//. This article is based on the scientific report for which the author was awarded the Lomonosov Gold Medal of the Russian Academy of Sciences in 2008, “The Middle East Problem

This raises a more fundamental question: What is the value of naval power in a world in which naval battles are not fought? To frame the question more clearly, let us begin by noting that __the United States has maintained global maritime hegemony since the end of World War II__. Except for the failed Soviet attempt to partially challenge the United States, __the most important geopolitical fact since World War II was that the world’s oceans were effectively under the control of the U.S. Navy. Prior to World War II, there were multiple contenders for maritime power__, such as Britain, Japan and most major powers. __No one__ power, not even Britain, __had global maritime hegemony. The United States now does__. The question is whether this hegemony has any real value at this time — a question made relevant by the issue of whether to blockade Iran. The United States controls the blue water. To be a little more precise, the U.S. Navy can assert direct and overwhelming control over any portion of the blue water it wishes, and it can do so in multiple places. It cannot directly control all of the oceans at the same time. However, __the total available naval force that can be deployed by non-U.S. powers__ (friendly and other) __is so limited that they lack the ability, **even taken together,** to assert control **anywhere** should the United States challenge their presence__. This is an unprecedented situation historically. __The current situation is__, of course, **__invaluable__** __to the United States. It means that a seaborne invasion of the United States by any power is completely impractical__. Given the geopolitical condition of the United States, the homeland is secure from conventional military attack but vulnerable to terrorist strikes and nuclear attacks. __At the same time, the United States is in a position to **project forces at will** to **any part of the globe**__. Such power projection might not be wise at times, but **__even failure__** __does not lead to reciprocation. For instance, no matter how badly U.S. forces fare in Iraq, the Iraqis will not invade the United States__ if the Americans are defeated there. __This is not a trivial fact. Control of the seas means that military or political failure in Eurasia will not result in a direct conventional threat to the United States. Nor does such failure necessarily preclude future U.S. intervention in that region. It also means that no other state can choose to invade the United States. Control of the seas allows the United States to intervene where it wants, survive the consequences of failure and be immune to occupation itself. It was the most important geopolitical consequence of World War II, and one that still **defines the world**__. The issue for the United States is not whether it should abandon control of the seas — that would be irrational in the extreme. Rather, the question is whether it has to exert itself at all in order to retain that control. Other powers either have abandoned attempts to challenge the United States, have fallen short of challenging the United States or have confined their efforts to building navies for extremely limited uses, or for uses aligned with the United States. No one has a shipbuilding program under way that could challenge the United States for several generations. One argument, then, is that the United States should cut its naval forces radically — since they have, in effect, done their job. Mothballing a good portion of the fleet would free up resources for other military requirements without threatening U.S. ability to control the sea-lanes. Should other powers attempt to build fleets to challenge the United States, the lead time involved in naval construction is such that the United States would have plenty of opportunities for re-commissioning ships or building new generations of vessels to thwart the potential challenge. The counterargument normally given is that the U.S. Navy provides a critical service in what is called littoral warfare. In other words, while the Navy might not be needed immediately to control sea-lanes, it carries out critical functions in securing access to those lanes and projecting rapid power into countries where the United States might want to intervene. Thus, U.S. aircraft carriers can bring tactical airpower to bear relatively quickly in any intervention. Moreover, the Navy’s amphibious capabilities — particularly those of deploying and supplying the U.S. Marines — make for a rapid deployment force that, when coupled with Naval airpower, can secure hostile areas of interest for the United States. That argument is persuasive, but it poses this problem: The Navy provides a powerful option for war initiation by the United States, but it cannot by itself sustain the war. In any sustained conflict, the Army must be brought in to occupy territory — or, as in Iraq, the Marines must be diverted from the amphibious specialty to serve essentially as Army units. Naval air by itself is a powerful opening move, but greater infusions of airpower are needed for a longer conflict. Naval transport might well be critically important in the opening stages, but commercial transport sustains the operation. If one accepts this argument, the case for a Navy of the current size and shape is not proven. How many carrier battle groups are needed and, given the threat to the carriers, is an entire battle group needed to protect them? If we consider the Iraq war in isolation, for example, it is apparent that the Navy served a function in the defeat of Iraq’s conventional forces. It is not clear, however, that the Navy has served an important role in the attempt to occupy and pacify Iraq. And, as we have seen in the case of Iran, a blockade is such a complex politico-military matter that the option not to blockade tends to emerge as the obvious choice. The Risk Not Taken The argument for slashing the Navy can be tempting. But consider the counterargument. First, and most important, we must consider the crises the United States has **not** experienced. The presence of the U.S. Navy has **shaped the ambitions** of primary and secondary powers. The threshold for challenging the Navy has been so high that few have **even initiated** serious challenges. Those that might be trying to do so, like the Chinese, understand that it requires a substantial diversion of resources. Therefore, the mere existence of U.S. naval power has been effective in **averting crises that likely would have occurred otherwise**. Reducing the power of the U.S. Navy, or fine-tuning it, would not only open the door to challenges but also eliminate a useful, if not essential, element in U.S. strategy — the ability to bring relatively rapid force to bear. There are times when the Navy’s use is tactical, and times when it is strategic. At this moment in U.S. history, the role of naval power is highly strategic. The domination of the world’s oceans represents the **foundation stone** of U.S. grand strategy. It allows the United States to take risks while minimizing consequences. It facilitates risk-taking. Above all, it eliminates the threat of sustained conventional attack against the homeland. U.S. grand strategy has **worked so well that this risk appears to be a phantom**. The dispersal of U.S. forces around the world attests to what naval power can achieve. It is illusory to believe that this situation cannot be reversed, but it is ultimately a generational threat. Just as U.S. maritime hegemony is measured in generations, the threat to that hegemony will emerge over generations. The apparent lack of utility of naval forces in secondary campaigns, like Iraq, masks the fundamentally **__indispensable role__** the Navy plays in U.S. national security.
 * US naval power guarantees hegemony, prevents attacks on the US mainland, and deters potential rivals from even attempting to change the status quo**
 * FRIEDMAN 2007** (George, PhD, Chief Executive Officer and founder of STRATFOR, “The Limitations and Necessity of Naval Power,” April 10, http://www.stratfor.com/limitations_and_necessity_naval_power)

The future security environment underscores two broad security trends. First, __international political realities and the internationally agreed-to sovereign rights of nations will increasingly limit the sustained involvement of American permanent land-based, heavy forces__ to the more extreme crises. __This will make offshore options for deterrence and power projection **ever more paramount**__ in support of our national interests. Second, __the naval dimensions of American power will re-emerge as the primary means for assuring our allies and partners, ensuring prosperity in times of peace, and countering anti-access, area-denial efforts in times of crisis__. We do not believe these trends will require the dismantling of land-based forces, as these forces will remain essential reservoirs of power. As the United States has learned time and again, once a crisis becomes a conflict, it is impossible to predict with certainty its depth, duration and cost. That said, __the U.S. has been shrinking its overseas land-based installations, so the ability to project power globally will make the forward presence of naval forces an **even more essential dimension of American influence**__. What we do believe is that **__uniquely responsive__** __Navy-Marine Corps capabilities provide the basis on which our most vital overseas interests are safeguarded. Forward presence and engagement is what allows the U.S. to maintain awareness, to deter aggression, and to quickly respond to threats as they arise__. Though we clearly must be prepared for the high-end threats, such __preparation should be made in balance with the means necessary to **avoid escalation** to the high end **in the first place**__. __The versatility of maritime forces provides a truly **unmatched advantage.**____The sea remains a vast space that provides nearly unlimited freedom of maneuver. Command of the sea allows for the presence of our naval forces, supported from a network of shore facilities, to be adjusted and scaled with little external restraint__. It permits reliance on proven capabilities such as prepositioned ships. __Maritime capabilities encourage and enable cooperation with other nations to solve common sea-based problems such as piracy, illegal trafficking, proliferation of W.M.D__ ., and a host of other ills, which if unchecked can harm our friends and interests abroad, and our own citizenry at home. __The flexibility and responsiveness of naval forces provide our country with a general strategic deterrent in a potentially violent and unstable world. Most importantly, our naval forces project and sustain power at sea and ashore at the time, place, duration, and intensity of our choosing__. Given these enduring qualities, tough choices must clearly be made, especially in light of expected tight defense budgets. The administration and the Congress need to balance the resources allocated to missions such as strategic deterrence, ballistic missile defense, and cyber warfare with the more traditional ones of sea control and power projection. The maritime capability and capacity vital to the flexible projection of U.S. power and influence around the globe must surely be preserved, especially in light of available technology. Capabilities such as the Joint Strike Fighter will provide strategic deterrence, in addition to tactical long-range strike, especially when operating from forward-deployed naval vessels. __Postured to respond quickly, the Navy-Marine Corps team integrates sea, air, and land power into adaptive force packages spanning the entire spectrum of operations, from everyday cooperative security activities to unwelcome — but not impossible — **wars between major powers**. This is exactly what we will need to meet the challenges of the future__.
 * Naval power is critical to overall US capabilities—this allows us to deter and defeat any challenger and contain every impact**
 * ENGLAND, JONES, AND CLARK 2011** (Gordon England is a former secretary of the Navy. General James Jones is a former commandant of the Marine Corps. Admiral Vern Clark is a former chief of naval operations; “The Necessity of U.S. Naval Power,” July 11, http://gcaptain.com/necessity-u-s-naval-power?27784)

So what is left? __Waning empires. Religious revivals. Incipient anarchy. A coming retreat into fortified cities. These are the Dark Age experiences that a world without a hyperpower might quickly find itself reliving.__ The trouble is, of course, that __this Dark Age would be an altogether more dangerous one__ than the Dark Age of the ninth century. For the world is much more populous—roughly 20 times more—so friction between the world's disparate “tribes” is bound to be more frequent. Technology has transformed production; now human societies depend not merely on freshwater and the harvest but also on supplies of fossil fuels that are known to be finite. __Technology has upgraded destruction__, too, __so it is now possible not just to sack a city but to obliterate it.__ For more than two decades, globalization—the integration of world markets for commodities, labor, and capital—has raised living standards throughout the world, except where countries have shut themselves off from the process through tyranny or civil war. __The reversal of globalization—which a new Dark Age would produce—would certainly lead to economic stagnation and even depression__. __As the United States sought to protect itself after a second September 11__ devastates, say, Houston or Chicago, __it would inevitably become a less open society, less hospitable for foreigners__ seeking to work, visit, or do business. Meanwhile, as Europe's Muslim enclaves grew, Islamist extremists' infiltration of the EU would become irreversible, increasing trans-Atlantic tensions over the Middle East to the breaking point. An economic meltdown in China would plunge the Communist system into crisis, unleashing the centrifugal forces that undermined previous Chinese empires. Western investors would lose out and conclude that lower returns at home are preferable to the risks of default abroad. The worst effects of the new Dark Age would be felt on the edges of the waning great powers. __The wealthiest ports of the global economy__ —from New York to Rotterdam to Shanghai— __would become__ the __targets__ of plunderers and pirates. With ease, terrorists could disrupt the freedom of the seas, targeting oil tankers, aircraft carriers, and cruise liners, while Western nations frantically concentrated on making their airports secure. Meanwhile, __limited nuclear wars could devastate numerous regions, beginning in the Korean peninsula and Kashmir, perhaps ending catastrophically in the Middle East.__ In Latin America, wretchedly poor citizens would seek solace in Evangelical Christianity imported by U.S. religious orders. In Africa, __the great plagues of AIDS and malaria would continue their deadly work__. The few remaining solvent airlines would simply suspend services to many cities in these continents; who would wish to leave their privately guarded safe havens to go there? __For all these reasons, the prospect of an apolar world should frighten us__ today a great deal more than it frightened the heirs of Charlemagne. __If the United States retreats from global hegemony__ —its fragile self-image dented by minor setbacks on the imperial frontier— __its critics at home and abroad must not pretend that they are ushering in a new era of multipolar harmony, or even a return to the good old balance of power__. Be careful what you wish for. __The alternative to unipolarity would not be multipolarity at all. It would be apolarity—a global vacuum of power. And far more dangerous forces than rival great powers would benefit from such a not-so-new world disorder__.
 * There’s no alternative to American power—US decline exacerbates every impact and cause nuclear war**
 * FERGUSON 2004** (Niall, Prof of History at NYU, Foreign Policy, July/August)

Under the third option, the United States would seek to retain global leadership and to preclude the rise of a global rival or a return to multipolarity for the indefinite future. On balance, this is the best long-term guiding principle and vision. Such a vision is desirable not as an end in itself, but because a world in which the United States exercises leadership would have tremendous advantages. First, the global environment would be more open and more receptive to American values -- democracy, free markets, and the rule of law. Second, such a world would have a better chance of dealing cooperatively with the world's major problems, such as nuclear proliferation, threats of regional hegemony by renegade states, and low-level conflicts. Finally, __U.S. leadership would help preclude the rise of another hostile global rival__, __enabling the__ United States and the __world to avoid another global__ cold or hot __war and__ all the attendant dangers, including a __global nuclear exchange__. U.S. leadership would therefore be more conducive to global stability than a bipolar or a multipolar balance of power system.
 * The impact is global nuclear war**
 * KHALILZAD 1995** (Zalmay, RAND analyst and now U.S. ambassador to Iraq, The Washington Quarterly)

Plan
**Plan: the United States federal government should increase its investment in transportation infrastructure necessary to sustain a home port for a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier at Naval Station Mayport.**

__A lot of work must take place before a carrier can again call Mayport home__. the __carriers__ newer than the USS John F. Kennedy __are larger and require more channel depth, meaning Mayport must be dredged, and__ the nuclear __fuel requires a significant upgrade to the wharf__ at Mayport. Funds for both projects have been included in congressional bills since 2010, according to Crenshaw, totalling over $77 million. __HR 2055__, which passed the House 411-5, __includes__ nearly $15 million for __transportation infrastructure improvements at Mayport and "funding, as, necessary," for future projects such as the maintenance wharf__ and controlled industrial facility. __If everything is fast-tracked, the earliest Mayport could see a carrier is estimated to be 2016__, though it could be as late as 2019.
 * The plan is key to carrier basing at Mayport**
 * FCN 6-14-2011** (House Passes Bill Including Mayport Carrier Money, http://www.firstcoastnews.com/news/article/207690/0/House-Passes-Bill-Including-Mayport-Carrier-Money)

**Local industry is strong enough to support carrier basing** Private ship repair firms in northeast Florida will likely be able to support the maintenance requirements of a nuclear aircraft carrier if one is homeported at Naval Station Mayport in 2019 as the Navy plans. Of the 20 surface ships currently homeported at Mayport, the Navy plans to decommission 12 guided-missile frigates between 2011 and 2015. According to the Navy, the total depot maintenance workload at Mayport has averaged 225,000 work days per year over the last several years. The Navy estimates that the decommissioning of the frigates will reduce this average workload by about 135,200 work days after all of the frigates have been decommissioned in 2015—a potential decrease of 60 percent if no other work is allocated to Mayport. According to private ship repair firm representatives, this decrease in workload will likely result in the loss of some jobs for ship repair firms in northeast Florida, but the Navy expects the private ship repair firms to be able to support a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier in 2019 for five key reasons. • The Navy has implemented mitigation measures to offset the decreased workload, such as transferring the maintenance of three barges from Norfolk Naval Shipyard to Mayport. These measures will likely not fully offset the decreased workload, but the Navy has stated it is continuing to explore other mitigation options, such as the homeporting of some littoral combat ships.11 Additionally, the Navy expects the proposed homeporting of a nuclear aircraft carrier at Mayport in 2019 to further increase the workload at Mayport by an average of 28,800 work days per year. • The northeast Florida area is home to three master ship repair firms certified by the Navy to have the capabilities and capacities to support the maintenance requirements of U.S. Navy surface ships, including aircraft carriers. Each of these firms has significant production and administrative facilities either on or near Naval Station Mayport, and officials from these firms told us they will maintain their presence in northeast Florida. Additionally, these private ship repair officials told us they have options by which they can adjust to fluctuations in workload. For example, two of the firms have ship repair personnel at other Navy homeports that could be used to supplement the firms’ workforces at Mayport during workload increases or used to transfer personnel during workload decreases. Similarly, there is a large transient, temporary ship repair workforce that can be used to supplement each of the ship repair firm’s full-time workforce as needed. Because of these options, private ship repair firm officials told us that although they are concerned over the projected decrease in workload, workload fluctuations are common in the ship repair industry and their firms would be able to withstand any lulls in workload at Mayport and that it would not impact their ability to support a nuclear carrier beginning in 2019. • The tasks required of the private ship repair firms to support a nuclear carrier are the same as those performed on conventional carriers in the past and the other types of ships currently homeported at Mayport. • Private ship repair firms in northeast Florida have previously demonstrated the ability to support carrier maintenance. In fact, the largest aircraft carrier availability ever performed outside of a public shipyard was completed on the USS John F. Kennedy in Mayport in 2003. • Finally, according to the Navy, the contracting strategy used with the private ship repair firms provides the firms with early visibility into the Navy’s maintenance planning, thus allowing the firms to appropriately size their workforces in anticipation of future workload.
 * GAO 2011** (Government Accountability Office, “Subject: Defense Infrastructure: Ability of Ship Maintenance Industrial Base to Support a Nuclear Aircraft Carrier at Naval Station Mayport,” March 29, http://www.gao.gov/assets/100/97346.pdf)

Inherency

 * Contention 1 is inherency**

//__The White House on Thursday put Port Miami’s long-awaited dredging project on a list of fast-tracked, nationally significant seaport improvement projects, guaranteeing it an expedited permitting process__. ¶ Practically speaking, the designation means little, since the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers had already pushed the plan forward after it cleared all regulatory hurdles and survived a legal challenge from environmentalists. ¶ The Army Corps is already expected to put the $180 million project up for bid in August. ¶ Still, in a joint statement, Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez and Port Miami Director Bill Johnson lauded the federal recognition, with Johnson saying __“over the past several years the deep dredge has been a number one priority for Port Miami.”__ ¶ // Thursday’s announcement by the White House does not mean money is likely to flow from the federal government any time soon//. In March, pushing the much-needed dredging project along, Gov. Rick Scott visited the port and announced the state would advance the county more than $90 million. ¶ Scott’s hope was that the state would be reimbursed. Miami-Dade will cover the remainder of the $180 million cost to deepen the port from 42 to 50 feet, a move the county is undertaking to accommodate the mega-ships that will glide through the newer, deeper Panama Canal. ¶ Because Congress has ordered the Army Corps not to begin any new projects indefinitely, Johnson said, the White House would need to propose funding for Miami-Dade, which then would send the money back to the state. ¶ Asked Johnson: “ __I’ve got a big question mark: Where are the dollars? Is the president putting dollars for Port Miami into his budget next year?” That wasn’t clear Thursday, with one senior administration official saying only, “__//Today’s announcements focus just on expediting all remaining federal reviews//__.”__
 * Obama has expedited approval for projects, but not allocated funds – aff is still inherent**
 * Morgan and Rabin 7/19** – Miami Herald reporter, environment reporter (Curtis and Charles, “White House Speeds Up Permits, Offers No New Cash For PortMiami Dredge Project”, The Miami Herald, July 21 2012, [] )//CB//

Plan

 * THE UNITED STATES FEDERAL**
 * GOVERNMENT SHOULD SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE ITS INVESTMENT IN EXPEDITED PORT DEEPENING PROJECTS IN THE UNITED STATES.**

Agriculture

 * Contention 2 is Agriculture**


 * U.S. agriculture exports are facing a crisis of competitiveness**
 * AgriMoney, 2/20** - investors' link to the food chain. The increasing numbers of mouths to feed, the demand for ever-more sophisticated diets, and the potential for turning food into fuel has turned the growing business into big business. Agriculture, to which financial markets owe a debt of history, is back at the forefront of investment thinking.(“US crop exports face 'crisis of competitiveness'”, Agrimoney.Com, 2/20/12, [|http://www.agrimoney.com/news/us-crop-exports-face-crisis-of-competitiveness--4179.html)//GP]

__US grain exporters face a "crisis of competitiveness__ " which is seeing foreign rivals raise market share, __helped in corn by doubts over the quality of American supplies.__ The __US Grains Council, whose role is to promote the country's grain exports, warned of "rapidly changing market realities" which were eroding US pre-eminence in agricultural commodity shipments__. __The group focused on corn, in which the US is, for the first time in 2011-12, to account for less than 50% of world shipments,____thanks to__ the emergence of __Ukraine__ as a major exporter. __America's exports will ease to 43.2m tonnes__, __or 46% of the world total__ , down from 52% last season, __on US Department of Agriculture exports__. However, __the US is also to be overtaken by Brazil as a soybean exporter, and in wheat is seeing its lead in shipments eroded by Australia and Russia.__ 'Crisis of competitiveness' " __US producers face a crisis of competitiveness," the council said, noting an "intense battle" for share in export markets__. __"Aggressive competitors in Argentina, Brazil and the Black Sea region… are ramping up production in response to high global prices for corn and other feed grains.__ " __US producers "can hardly fault others for competing effectively for market share__ because, in large part, we taught them how to do it", the group said. " __But rising competition means US producers must look aggressively to emerging markets in which the US can earn a competitive edge__ ." Foreign threats The comments follow forecasts last week from the USDA that t __he US was over the next decade to continue to lose market share in exports of major crops including corn, soybeans and wheat and, to a lesser extent, cotton and sorghum.__ In wheat, US shipments will represent 16% of the world total in 2021, down from an average of 23% over the past five years, the last decade, mainly due to increased shipments from the Black Sea. The USGC highlighted that in corn, __"the US cannot take market dominance for granted", noting "increasing self-sufficiency" in the rest of the world. "Non-US demand continues to rise rapidly, prices remain high, and non-US producers are responding."__ Quality doubts However, it also flagged the dent to demand for US shipments stoked by the poor-quality crop in 2009, when wet conditions delayed the harvest for weeks, leaving crop exposed to poor weather. The council had logged "concerns" about US corn quality "in virtually every market around the world", with longer-standing complaints too about moisture content. In the US too, corn buyers such as Smithfield Foods, the hog producer, complained over the quality of the 2009 harvest, in which moisture levels often came in at 20-30%, creating ripe conditions for the spread of fungi, including those which produce vomitoxin.


 * Sustaining US agricultural exports depends on __capacity upgrades__ in port infrastructure**
 * Khachatryan and Casavant 11** —Research Associate and Director/Professor at the Freight Policy Transportation Institute at the School of Economic Sciences at Washington State Unviersity (Hayk and Ken, THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN U.S. TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE IMPROVEMENTS AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE, [], EL)

__The efficient and affordable freight transportation system that facilitates the linkage to international markets has always been important drivers for U.S. export-oriented__. In turn, the importance of participating in international trade is reflected in increasing exports over the past decades (Figure 2). Despite the sharp decline of the 1980’s and late 1990’s, the value of agricultural exports has exceeded the imports since early 1970’s. The sharpest decline in agricultural commodities exports happened during the economic downturn of 2008 – 2009, followed by a quick recovery in 2010. The positive trade balance since the 1970’s lead to higher farm prices and increased producer revenues. Reasons for exports fluctuations include but are not limited to U.S. dollar’s value against foreign currencies, changes in the economies of importing countries, and foreign countries’ favorable agricultural policies leading to increased competition in the world export markets. __The extent to which international markets are important to largely export-oriented agricultural economy can also be reflected in export market shares of major agricultural commodities__ shown in Table 2. The export share of total agricultural production has gradually increased from 15.9% in 1988 to 21.4% in 1996. Primary crops and meat and livestock categories’ export share increased from 25.8% to 31.1% and 7.4% to 11.1% respectively. The average percentage of export market share is higher in the 1990s’indicating that U.S. farm income becomes more reliant on the foreign trade. In turn __, foreign trade relies on cost-effective and timely transportation efficiency.__ Table 3 shows the export shares for several important agricultural commodities. Excluding grapes, soybeans and sunflower seed categories, __the export share of production for other major agricultural commodities was found to be increased__ from 1988 to 1996. Most notably, the export share for almonds increased from 51.6 to 71.8%, apples shares were 12%, up from 6.2%. Export shares of wheat and soybeans are significant, averaging about 51% and 34% respectively. __With increasing world food demand and growing foreign per capita expenditures on U.S. farm products, the positive relationship between agricultural export shares and foreign market dependence has important implications for trade policies__. In particular, the pattern in export share of production for agricultural commodities suggests __adequate response in investing and increasing transport capacity is needed in order to support uninterrupted trade flow__. Recent wheat trade data published by the Foreign Agricultural Service Production, Supply and Distribution (FAS PSD) shows that the U.S. wheat exports have dominated in the top 5 wheat exporting countries (Figure 3). Despite the significant reductions during the last three 18 years, due to the economic downturn, the U.S. is leading exporter with more than 35 million metric tons exported in 2010, the highest. The rest of the major wheat exporting competitor countries listed in the FAS PSD online database are European Union, Canada, Australia, and Argentina. Soybean world exports are largely dominated by U.S. and Brazil, followed by Argentina, Paraguay, and Canada. The U.S. soybean exports increased almost 70% since 2005, reaching more than 43 million metric tons in 2010. Brazil, the second largest producer of soybeans has significantly increased the export levels during the last decade, reaching 32.3 metric million tons in 2010. 1 __The trend in key agricultural commodity exports and imports__, as well as export share of production for major commodities, __speak about certain need for increasing transportation capacity and improving existing infrastructure.__ 3.2 Freight Services and Modal Share World’s leading economies—U.S., Japan, China, Germany and France cumulatively account for 50% of global gross domestic product (GDP) of $60.9 trillion (TN) and 35% of global goods exports of $16 TN. With its most expensive freight transportation network measured by the length of paved roads, waterways, railroad, pipelines, and number of airports, the U.S. has the highest level of freight activity. __Due to relatively larger geographic area and lower population density, goods are shipped comparatively longer destinations from producers to local end-user locations and export ports.__ Although as a result of emerging economies, the U.S. share of world GDP has declined between 2001 and 2008 (after the “dot-com boom” years), __the demand for its freight and port services has significantly increase d __ (Figure 5). After relatively short steady state from 2000 to 2002, the U.S. freight services increased by 69%, reaching $68 B/year in 2008. Compatibly, since 2003, the port services doubled in value, reaching more than $63 B/year in 2008. From 2007 to 2008, __the total international merchandise trade and imports passed through U.S. freight system increased about 12% and 7%, respectively__. This trend is consistent with the U.S. trade growth of about 7% per year since 1990. __The combination of observed and projected increasing trade volumes encourage further development and/or maintenance of transportation facilities that link local producers to foreign markets.__ The modal share utilization trend is another important consideration for prioritizing transportation infrastructure investments. Almost all of the freight transportation uses some combination of two or more modes of transportation: trucks, trains, barges, and ocean vessels. Depending on distance, a cargo of export goods may be transported from local production area to 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 Billion Dollars Freight services Port services22 transshipment locations using trucks, then continue its way by rail or barge to exporting ports. Among other considerations, mode utilization depends on the industry (commodity type) and geographic location (accessibility). For example, rail (generally utilized for long-destination shipments) is the most cost-effective mode for many agricultural products transportation from elevator to transshipment location or exporting port shipments. Truck mode is utilized for shorter-distance, time-dependent shipments. According to freight transportation statistics by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 77.7% (by weight) of U.S. merchandise trade uses waterborne transportation, and 21.7% relies on either truck or rail modes (Figure 6). Only less than 1% of the trade volume is attributed to air transportation. 3.3 Ports and Inland Waterways __Ocean ports are one of the most vital hubs for U.S. international trade flows. Congestion and low efficiency result in delays and disruptions, which impact the entire supply chain__ (Blonigen and Wilson, 2006). __Clark et al__ ., (2004) __show that an increase in port efficiency from 25th to 75th percentile reduces port shipping costs by 12%__. In addition to port efficiency, an increase in the inland transport infrastructure efficiency from 25 th to 75 th percentile improves the bilateral trade by 25%. This estimate is comparable to the estimate of 28% reported in Limao 24.1 44.9 25.1 5.9 21.7 77.7 0.4 0.1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 U.S. total land trade U.S. total water trade U.S. total air trade Other and unknown Percent Valu e Weight24 and Venables, (2001). __Port efficiency can be measured by linking its impact on transportation costs.__ In their investigation of the transportation cost determinants, Sánchez et al. (2003) found statistically significant positive correlation between transport costs and distance and value per weight variables. The frequency of services and the level of containerization were both negatively correlated, but only the frequency of services was found to be statistically significant. Waterborne imports and exports account for about 1.4 billion tons, an equivalent of $3.95 TN in international trade, and U.S. ports secure about 13.3 million jobs that generate about $649 billion in personal income (AAPA, 2010). __Improving the capacity and efficiency of U.S. public ports infrastructure is particularly important given the projected increases in freight shipment for the next decade.__ According to the U.S. Department of Transportation, the volume of containerized cargo will double by 2020 (BTS RITA, 2009). U.S. total exports to the top 15 countries for 2000, 2005, and 2010 are compared in Figure 7. Compared to 2000 and 2005 levels, exports in 2010 were increased significant especially for Canada, Mexico and China. Except for Japan, 2010 exports to all 15 countries are increased. __This increasing trend in U.S. merchandise is directly comparable to agricultural export statistics discussed above.__ Figure 8 shows the Pacific region’s top 15 export product categories. Even with a decreased 2010 level, the computer and electronics category still provides the highest exports, followed by the transportation equipment category. Agricultural products exports category is the third, with substantial increases from 2000 to 2010. Among the Pacific ports, Port of Los Angeles provides the highest number of import and export twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) followed by Port of Long Beach, Port of Oakland, Port of Seattle, Port of Tacoma and Port of Portland (Figure 9). With the exception of Port of Oakland, imports exceed exports at all of the Pacific ports. In particular, the three biggest ports import twice of the export volumes. __The increased levels of U.S. total merchandise and agricultural commodities exports emphasize the importance of both port and inland waterways infrastructure improvements__. One of those improvement projects is the recent lock repair project on Columbia-Snake River System (CSR) by the Army Corps of Engineers that operates about 12,000 miles of waterways in the US. The CSRS links the Pacific Northwest (PNW) economy to the rest of the world through the 16 ports.


 * The Panama Canal expansion will shift global trade patterns away from the Gulf Coast without port upgrades – this cuts off US grain exports**
 * Stallman, 2012** – President of the American Farm Bureau (Bob, “Update Our Ports or Miss the Boat”, American Farm Bureau, April 2012, [] ) //MGD

Someone once said that it’s not leaving port, but coming in, that determines the success of a voyage. While this has some truth to it, the port that one departs from is just as important to a successful endeavor. __It may surprise many that if the planned expansion of the Panama Canal was completed tomorrow, the United States, one of the world’s largest trading powers, would only have six ports deep enough to handle the new larger ships that will pass.__ Yet, __we are competing with all other parts of the world that are updating their ports____.__ Since agriculture goods play a significant role in U.S. trade, __modernizing our ports is extremely important for farmers and ranchers to be able to continue to thrive in the world market.__ If You Build It, They Will Come __Even more surprising than the U.S. only having six large ports is the fact that all these ports are isolated on the East and West Coasts.__ That’s right, __Gulf Coast ports, including New Orleans, do not currently have the capacity to handle larger ships. If upgrades to U.S. ports are not completed in time,__ for major trade leaving the U.S. Gulf, __smaller boats will need to be utilized to trans-ship our goods to ports like those in the Bahamas and Dominican Republic, where they would offload to larger vessels traveling to Latin America, Asia and other parts of the world.__ Similarly, goods coming from other countries would potentially have to go through the same routine in the Caribbean, offloading to smaller vessels to enter ports in the U.S. Gulf. If you are scratching your head, you aren’t the only one. __This process of loading and offloading ships costs a lot of money. Inadequate port size also leads to higher transportation costs because vessels may be loaded to less than capacity and more vessels may be required to ship the same amount of commodities.__ In the meantime, __our competitors around the world fare much better. Because their ports are deep enough, it is easier and less expensive to move products in and out. Further, Europe, Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean are all undergoing major new port projects or expansion of existing facilities. Latin America__, for example, __is rapidly continuing with some of the world’s most sizable port development projects.__ The region is catching up with other regions through larger port investments, which stand at almost $12 billion. This means __China will have access to sell its farm products to Latin America, where Asia never had access before.__ For Right of Way, Gross Tonnage Rules The expansion of the Panama Canal will allow significantly larger ships to move through the waterway. The project, expected to be completed in 2014, should increase cargo volume by an average of 3 percent per year, doubling the 2005 tonnage by 2025. Currently, the largest ship able to pass through the canal can hold up to 3,500 TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent unit, a measure used for capacity in container transportation). To maximize the canal’s new dimensions, shipbuilders are making larger vessels that are able to hold up to 12,000 TEUs and require 50-51 feet of draft. __These larger ships require deeper and wider shipping channels, greater overhead clearance, and larger cranes and shore infrastructure – all of which make the U.S. Gulf a non-trading player. Some U.S ports can accommodate the larger vessels. However, most cannot, including many ports that are very important to U.S. agricultural exports.__ The U.S. exports approximately one-quarter of the grain it produces. __In 2011, more than 58 percent of our grain exports departed from the U.S. Gulf. This may significantly change as larger ships carrying grain from our competitors are able to access our trading partners.__ **The Panama Canal could potentially shift world trade as** __U.S. exporters will be unable to pass on higher transportation costs when customers can purchase similar products from other countries.__ As the saying goes, “For Right of Way, Gross Tonnage Rules.” This law, known as the rule of common sense on the water, is also common sense for international trade. In other words, __those with the biggest ships and ports__ __to accommodate them will win every time. To maintain our competiveness in the world market, it is essential that the U.S. update and modernize its ports to accommodate larger ships. Without this investment in infrastructure, we will literally miss the boat.__


 * The collapse of U.S. agricultural competitiveness turns every impact and makes extinction inevitable**
 * Lugar, 4** – U.S. Senator – Indiana, (Richard, “Plant Power” Our Planet v. 14 n. 3, http://www.unep.org/OurPlanet/imgversn/143/lugar.html

__In a world confronted by global terrorism, turmoil in the Middle East, burgeoning nuclear threats and other crises, it is easy to lose sight of the long-range challenges. But we do so at our peril. One of the most daunting of them is meeting the world’s need for food and energy in this century__. __ At stake is ____not only preventing starvation and saving the environment, but also world peace and security__. __History tells us that states may go to war over access to resources, and that poverty and famine have often bred fanaticism and terrorism. Working to feed the world will minimize factors that contribute to global instability and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction__. With the world population expected to grow from 6 billion people today to 9 billion by mid-century, the demand for affordable food will increase well beyond current international production levels. People in rapidly developing nations will have the means greatly to improve their standard of living and caloric intake. Inevitably, that means eating more meat. This will raise demand for feed grain at the same time that the growing world population will need vastly more basic food to eat. Complicating a solution to this problem is a dynamic that must be better understood in the West: developing countries often use limited arable land to expand cities to house their growing populations. __As good land disappears, people destroy timber resources and even rainforests as they try to create more arable land to feed themselves. The long-term environmental consequences could be disastrous for the entire globe.__ Productivity revolution To meet the expected demand for food over the next 50 years, we in the United States will have to grow roughly three times more food on the land we have. That’s a tall order. My farm in Marion County, Indiana, for example, yields on average 8.3 to 8.6 tonnes of corn per hectare – typical for a farm in central Indiana. To triple our production by 2050, we will have to produce an annual average of 25 tonnes per hectare. Can we possibly boost output that much? Well, it’s been done before. Advances in the use of fertilizer and water, improved machinery and better tilling techniques combined to generate a threefold increase in yields since 1935 – on our farm back then, my dad produced 2.8 to 3 tonnes per hectare. Much US agriculture has seen similar increases. But of course there is no guarantee that we can achieve those results again. __Given the urgency of expanding food production to meet world demand, we must invest much more in scientific research and target that money toward projects that promise to have significant national and global impact__. For the United States, that will mean a major shift in the way we conduct and fund agricultural science. __Fundamental research will generate the innovations that will be necessary to feed the world.____The U__ nited __S__ tates __can take a leading position in a productivity revolution. And our success at increasing food production may play a decisive humanitarian role in the survival of billions of people and the health of our planet__.

**Cotton**

 * Contention 3 is __cotton__**

Farm Bill legislation is not the only issue that needs a unified effort from the U.S. cotton industry, Weil said. To __compete with other cotton producing countries, U.S. cotton will have to maintain and increase its quality while ensuring timely delivery. If merchants can market a quality product with on-time delivery, U.S. cotton will remain a highly valued commodity by international mills. Cooperation along the production supply chain__ - from seed breeders, growers, ginners, warehousers and __shippers - is the key to success in increasing the quality of U.S. cotton__. Weil believes U.S. seed breeders have produced varieties with exceptional fiber characteristics, with the help of grower and industry input. But improvements must continue to keep up with demands from international mills. "I think the American grower has done a phenomenal job in communicating to the seed breeders, or perhaps the industry as a whole has been communicating to seed breeders, what the market is demanding out of the fibers. And growers are much more sensitive to that," Weil said. "The qualities have improved greatly and seed breeders have been staying on top ofthat and have afforded better yields for growers on top of better quality. So I think growers are doing a great job responding to what the market needs." While U.S. varieties meet international mill standards, Weil says U.S. cotton could be improved with fewer neps and less contamination. Harvesting and ginning technologies need to address these issues in the future, so that quality is maintained down the pipeline. "We probably need to be more sensitive to things that might detract from the quality such as neps and short fiber content that we often hear about on the merchant level when we deal with our customers in foreign markets. These textile mills invest a tremendous amount of money in spinning and weaving equipment, and the modern technology involved in those pieces of machinery demands a lot from the fiber to perform at peak efficiencies," Weil said. "If we can't provide that, either because of the ginning, the way it's packaged or because of the foreign material in the fiber, the mills will complain very heavily. It can blow up a mill and hurt their efficiency." __Mills__ not only need cleaner, contamination-free cotton, but they also __need on-time delivery. In the past, U.S. cotton has been a reliable commodity in a marketplace where other suppliers didn't have the infrastructure or ability to deliver shipments as timely__. But the market has shifted. China leads the world in production, and India's yields have reached record levels as its growers take advantage of technologies. With these countries in close proximity to Asian mill markets, __U.S. logistics must find less expensive, more efficient delivery channels to compete with overseas markets. One way to achieve this__, Weil believes, __is to move more cotton to the country's ports, staging it for export shipments__. "The __best way we can deal with congestion in the interior is to go ahead and just continually move it and stage it in ports around the country. I think we are fortunate to have as many ports as we do, so that it does spread the opportunity to ship cotton effectively__ . We have great facilities on the East and West coasts, as well as in the Gulf of Mexico, to facilitate timely shipments for exports," Weil said. " __I think the capacity is there to move the cotton, as fast as we can get ships and containers available to load the cotton.__ But I think the real sticking point is in the interior. Warehouses are rewarded when cotton is kept in the loan. But we need to be sure it can be moved in a timely and reliable manner. We all need to cooperate, or we need to force the issue."
 * Ports are key to cotton export competitiveness**
 * Harris, 7** — associate editor at Cotton Grower magazine (Drew, “Paradigm Shift Changes Market For The US Cotton Grower”, May, ProQuest, EL)

// Because __the U.S. cotton industry is highly dependent on foreign markets, it is important__ for the industry __to keep U.S. cotton competitive with foreign suppliers such as India__ and Uzbekistan. __Transportation is one of the major factors that affect the competitive position of U.S. cotton, allowing the delivery of cotton to international markets in a timely, cost effective manner__. The __increase in U.S. cotton exports has__ clearly __resulted in a shift in trade patterns____and__ logistical __requirements__. In particular __, increasing cotton demand in China__ and other Asian countries __has increased cotton shipments to congested U.S. west coast ports__ (Fraire et al.). This problem was exacerbated during 2008 as Atlantic and Gulf __ports became increasingly inaccessible for containerized cotton exports.__ Outgoing grain and oilseed exports required a greater number of containers and berths at ports. Delta and Southeast cotton shipments to China were increasingly shipped via the West Coast instead of Savannah, which resulted for the first time in a declining futures market basis for Delta/SE cotton relative to Texas cotton. While port congestion has eased since that time due to the global economic downturn, __adequate transportation infrastructure that guarantees cotton shipments in a timel__ y, efficient __manner____will provide a greater level of competitiveness for U.S. cotton exports__ in the future. Consequently, the primary objective of this study is to evaluate U.S transportation infrastructure serving the cotton industry. Furthermore, this study will analyze the potential impacts of transportation infrastructure improvements on the U.S. cotton industry, focusing on requirements in Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana. These states were chosen because they are contiguous and, when taken together, account for about half of U.S. cotton production. While production is high in this region, only about one-quarter of U.S. cotton exports are shipped via Texas and Louisiana ports. This is in contrast to the western cotton states of California, Arizona and New Mexico that account for less than ten percent of cotton production. About one-half of U.S. cotton exports, however, are shipped through western seaports. Further, the proximity of Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana to Mexico merits analysis because of Mexico’s prominence as a major market. Finally, improvements and expansion of the Panama Canal are analyzed to assess the impacts on cotton shipping patterns in the United States and globally. Many of the logistical and infrastructure issues affecting the cotton industry in recent years have related to major producing states. The task of accumulating cotton in this production area for shipment to the Texas-Mexico border, Gulf ports, and western __U.S. ports is of major importance to the overall competitiveness of the U.S. cotton industry.__ Inefficiencies with this process, however, emphasize the need for additional study. Global container fleet capacity is forecast to increase from 13.2 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in 2010 to 16.8 million TEU in 2013, placing additional demand on U.S. ports and transportation system infrastructure (ACP 2010). The demand for containers for the export of corn, wheat, oilseeds, and distiller’s dry grain (DDG) increased from 306,000 TEU in 2003 to 804,000 TEU in 2008. While this represents a relatively small share of total containers available for U.S. cargo, much of the increased demand occurred at the ports of Savannah and Norfolk. Part of the reason for this was the significant increase in freight rates for bulk cargo during this time period. The situation resulted in a shortage of containers on the East Coast and led to the increased shipments of cotton to the West Coast for export. Although congestion and container shortages were mitigated somewhat by the recent economic recession, __global cargo shipments have recovered and are expected to again strain the U.S. port system__. //
 * Specifically, __port efficiency__ is key — only the plan solves**
 * Rossen et al 11** – A report prepared under cooperative agreements between the Agricultural Marketing Service and Texas AgriLife Research (Parr, “Impacts of Transportation Infrastructure on the U.S. Cotton Industry”, CNAS, 5/11, http://www.ams.usda.gov/AMSv1.0/getfile?dDocName=STELPRDC5092073)//MM//

//**The cotton trade is __zero-sum__ — the plan __secures US market share__ at the expense of competitors**// //**Lyford and Welch, 4** — assistant professor in the Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics at Texas Tech University, AND, assistant professor and Texas AgriLife Extension Economist in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Texas A&M University (Conrad P. and J. Mark, “Measuring Competition for Textiles: Does the U.S. Make the Grade?”, Texas Tech University, The International Cotton Research Center at Texas Tech University, presented at the Southern Agricultural Economics Association, 2/18/2004, http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/34616/1/sp04ly01.pdf, Deech)// // This study evaluates the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturers of cotton yarn products compared to international rivals by analyzing the current competitive state of this industry and by identifying competitive trends. This will be accomplished by comparing objective measures of market share of textile products, a price-based comparison of goods offered in the market place, a comparison of costs of production between major market participants, and an evaluation of the efficiencies/inefficiencies associated with the transport of initially processed textile products in contrast to the shipment of raw cotton. Revealed Comparative Advantage A key aspect of evaluating whether a producer of a given good is competitive in his/her market offering depends on both a definition and measure of the term ‘competitiveness’. Drescher and Maurer cite Bellendorf’s definition of competitiveness as the ability of firms and industries “… to protect and/or improve their position in relation to competitors which are active in the same market ” (p. 162). This definition is consistent with that of Sharples and Kennedy and Rossen who define competitiveness as the ability to achieve market share. A producer who attains a market share for his/her product is by definition competitive. A product for which market share is increasing can be said to be increasing in competitiveness and, conversely, a product is regarded as decreasing in competitiveness if the market share for that product is in decline. In the following discussion, market share will both define competitiveness and serve as its primary measure. Market share as an empirical measure of competitiveness is founded on the performance of a given product in the marketplace. Since the focus of this paper is the global marketplace, export shares will be used as indicators of international competitiveness. These relative shares will be analyzed for the clues they may provide as to how and in which direction the competitiveness of a given industry may be changing (Drescher and Maurer). Balassa asserts that an analysis of the trade performance of individual countries would indicate the comparative advantage one nation holds over others in the marketing of manufactured goods. This analysis is based on a comparison of “…the relative shares of a country in the world exports of individual commodities and indicating changes in relative shares over time (Balassa, p.105). Thus, comparative advantage as described by Balassa is consistent with the concept of competitiveness used here. Direct observation of trade performance may then reveal comparative advantage (competitiveness) in the production of that commodity. Balassa introduces an index called “Revealed Comparative Advantage” (RCA) as a means of measuring comparative advantage. The export based RCA index used here is based on an application of Balassa’s RCA by Leishman, Menkhaus and Whipple and is calculated in three steps. First, a country’s market share in the production of a specific good (x t ij ) is calculated as a country’s export of a certain good divided by the world exports of that good, [Equation omitted] equals the exports of commodity i by country j in time t and X t iw equals the world w exports of commodity i in time t. Second, a country’s market share in the export of all manufactured goods (x t kj ) is calculated by dividing its own exports of all manufactured goods by the combined world exports of all manufactured goods, - 4 - [Equation omitted] where X t kj equals the exports from country j of all manufactured goods k in time t and X t kw equals the world w exports of all manufactured goods k in time t. Third, dividing the market share of a country in the production of a certain good by its market share in the export of all goods yields the current RCA index in time t for country j in commodity i: [Equation omitted] The higher the RCA, the greater importance of that good relative to all manufactured exports. An index value of 120 indicates that a country’s exports of that good for a given year is 20% higher than its share in total world exports of all manufactured goods. An index value of 80 reveals that a country’s exports for a given good are 20% lower than its share of world exports of all manufactured goods. Export data for textile yarn, fabric, etc.(SITC Rev. 3 code 65) and all manufactured goods (SITC Rev. 3 code 6) were gathered for years 1989 through 2001 for the major textile producing nations of China, Indonesia, Pakistan, and the United States as well as total world trade in each classification. Figures are available online from the Comtrade database of the United Nations Statistics Division (trade statistics were not reported for all nations for all years). RCA index values were calculated for each of these nations and are shown in Figure 1. The data indicate that the U nited S tates holds the weakest competitive position among the textile producers reported here. The export of U.S. textile products was 13.13 % lower than that of all U.S. manufacturing exports in 1989 (it’s high for the time range) and 15.64% lower in 2001. Pakistan is shown to be the country in which the exportation of textile products is highest relative to other manufacturing exports, with the export share for textiles exceeding all - 5 - manufacturing by 400%. Indonesia has seen the greatest percentage gains in RCA values from 1989 to 2001, increasing 55%. //

//**This is __good__ — __four impacts__ — first is __Xinjiang__ — the plan ends Chinese encroachment on Xinjiang province**// //**Zhao and Tisdell, 9** — professor of agricultural economics at Wuhan University of Science and Engineering, AND, professor at the School of Economics, The University of Queensland (Xufu and Clem, “The Sustainability of Cotton Production in China and in Australia: Comparative Economic and Environmental Issues”, ECONOMICS, ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, Working Paper No. 157, The University of Queensland, June 2009, http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/55338/2/WP%20157.pdf, Deech)// // Although globally China has retained its position as the major producer of cotton, India has edged out the United States as the second largest producer of cotton, and in recent decades Australia progressed from being of negligible importance as a global cotton supplier to being a significant supplier. Although the general location of cotton production in Australia has not changed much since 1980, the location ofChina’s cotton production has tended to shift towards its west, particularly Xinjiang. This shift has had a positive impact on aggregate yields of cotton in China because growing conditions for cotton tend to be more favourable there than in eastern China, especially compared to areas in the Yellow River region. Improvements in farming systems have, of course, also played a role in increasing cotton yields in China and elsewhere. In considering the sustainability of cotton yields and production, it is important to take into account economic factors, the geographical location of cotton growing and the farming systems involved. This will now be done for Australia and China in order to better appreciate the challenges faced by both those countries in sustaining their cotton supplies. //

//**Specifically, the success of the Chinese cotton industry causes __mass migrations__ to Xinjiang**// //**Giglio, 12** (Davide, “Separatism And The War On Terror In China’s Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region”, thesis presented in completion of a Certificate-of-Training in United Nations Peace Support Operations, Peace Operations Training Institute, 2/22/2012, http://media.peaceopstraining.org/theses/giglio.pdf, Deech)// // The development, from the 1950s, of mineral resources and the opening up of the region for cotton production, brought an influx of ethnic Chinese which dramatically altered the province’s ethnic balance. In 1949, Xinjiang had 3.2 millions Uighurs and only 140,000 Chinese. Now, of the total population, 40 percent are Han, and only 47 percent are Uighur. Given current migration patterns, Uighurs fear they might soon be significantly outnumbered. The growth of the Han Chinese population of Xinjiang has been achieved by flooding the region with massive numbers of Chinese immigrants. Initially Han Chinese migration to Xinjiang was officially encouraged to support agricultural development and to promote security with respect to a possible Soviet threat to the lightly populated territory. Since the 1980s, official support for compulsory migration has been toned down, possibly in response to increasing tensions with the local populace, but voluntary immigration to Xinjiang has proceeded apace. In part, this reflects the same kinds of pressures being experienced elsewhere in China as millions of people flood out of the rural areas to seek work in the growing manufacturing economy. //

//**The impact is global terrorism**// //**Hays, 8** — former professor and lecturer on East Asian affairs (Jeffrey, “TERRORISM, TERRORIST GROUPS AND ANTI-TERRORIST EFFORTS IN IN XINJIANG”, Facts and Details, October 2011, http://factsanddetails.com/china.php?itemid=1004&catid=5&subcatid=89#7708, Deech)// // Beijing blames outside agitators and foreign-based terrorist groups for the unrest, specifically those from the East Turkistan Islamic Movement who it says have trained in militant camps in Pakistan. Yet Beijing has provided no direct evidence, and analysts say they suspect its claims are driven more by ideology than proof. Uighur activists say harsh crackdowns only lead to greater anger among **young Uighurs** who already **feel** culturally and economically **sidelined by waves of Han migration to the region**. September 11th and the war on terrorism, gave China an opportunity to cast a localized Uighur separatist movement as an international terrorist threat. China described itself as a “victim of international terrorism,” blamed unrest in Xinjiang on Osama bin Laden and asked the United States to include ETIM on its lists of terrorist organizations. At first Washington refused but when it sought support for its activitie sin Afghanistan and the invasion of Iraq it changed its position and included the group on the terrorist list. James Miflor, a professor at Georgetown and expert on Xinjiang, told National Geographic that many officials believe Xinjiang faces a serious terrorist threat because that “is what they are constantly told.” In one speech Osama bin Laden called Chinese “pagan Buddhists.” It is hard to gage the support of Al-Qaida and Osama bin Laden because the Chinese Muslims are so afraid to speak their minds. But some have expressed sympathy for the Taliban and said there is not solid proof to link Osama bin Laden with September 11th. See Separate Article: TERRORIST ATTACKS IN XINJIANG Websites and Resources Good Websites and Sources: Wikipedia article Wikipedia ; Blog with stuff on Xinjiang china.notspecial.org ; About Xinjiang (Chinese government site) aboutxinjiang. ; History and Development of Xinjiang (Chinese government site) news.xinhuanet.com ; Uighurs and Xinjiang Council on Foreign Relations ; Muslims in China: Islam in China islaminchina.wordpress.com ; Claude Pickens Collection harvard.edu/libraries ; Islam Awareness islamawareness.net ; Wikipedia article Wikipedia ; Asia Times atimes.com ; Xinjiang History Wikipedia article Wikipedia ; Great Game Info sras.org ; Great Game in Afghanistan atimes.com. Book on the Great Game: The Dust of Empire: The Race for Mastery in the Asian Heartland by Karl E. Meyer (Century Foundation/Public Affairs, 2003). Separatism and Human Rights: Wikipedia article on Terrorism in China Wikipedia ; All Quiet on the Western Front? silkroadstudies.org Human Rights in Xinjiang Human Rights Watch article hrw.org ; Human Rights in Xinjiang Human Rights Watch article hrw.org ; Human Rights in Xinjiang Human Rights Watch article hrw.org ; Uyghur Human Rights Groups: U.S.-based Taklamakan Uighur Human Rights Association; German-based East Turkestan Information Center; Germany-based World Uyghur Congress; and Rebiya Kadeer’s Uyghur American Association: World Uyghur Congress uyghurcongress.org ; Uyghur American Association uyghuramerican.org ; Uyghur Human Rights Project uhrp.org Uighur and Xinjiang Experts: Dru Gladney of Pomona College; Nicolas Bequelin of Human Rights Watch; and James Miflor, a professor at Georgetown University. Travel Warnings U.S. State Department Advisories: Travel.State.gov British travel warnings: fco.gov.uk. Australian travel warnings: dfat.gov.au/travel. Travel Advise Web Sites : Lonely Planet Lonely Planet Lonely Planet’s Thorn Tree Thorn Tree Links in this Website: XINJIANG Factsanddetails.com/China ; XINJIANG EARLY HISTORY Factsanddetails.com/China ; XINJIANG LATER HISTORY Factsanddetails.com/China ; XINJIANG AND CHINA Factsanddetails.com/China ; XINJIANG SEPARATISM AND HUMAN RIGHTS Factsanddetails.com/China ; TERRORISM IN XINJIANG Factsanddetails.com/China ; Factsanddetails.com/China ; XINJIANG RIOTS IN 2009 Factsanddetails.com/China ; UIGHURS Factsanddetails.com/China ; HORSEMEN AND SMALL MINORITIES IN XINJIANG Factsanddetails.com/China ; XINJIANG, URUMQI Factsanddetails.com/China ; XINJIANG. KASHGAR Factsanddetails.com/China ; XINJIANG KARAKORUM HIGHWAY Factsanddetails.com/China ; RIOTS AND DEMONSTRATIONS IN CHINA Factsanddetails.com/China ; POLICE IN CHINA Factsanddetails.com/China ; HUMAN RIGHTS IN CHINA Factsanddetails.com/China ; DISSIDENTS, POLITICAL ACTIVISTS AND POLITICAL PRISONERS IN CHINA Factsanddetails.com/China ; TERRORISM AND BOMBINGS IN CHINA Factsanddetails.com/China PLACES IN XINJIANG : Xinjiang Tourism Administration, 16 South Hetan Rd, 830002 Urumqi, Xinjiang China, tel. (0)- 991-282-7912, fax: (0)- 991-282-4449. Web Sites : Wikipedia Wikipedia Government site Xinjiang.gov ; Photos and Qanats : Synaptic Synaptic Wikipedia article on qanats Wikipedia ; Turpan : Turpan Tourism Division, 41 Qingnian Rd, 838000 Turpan. Xinjiang China, tel. (0)- 995-523-706, fax: (0)- 995-522-768 ; Urumqi : Urumqi Tourism Bureau, 32 Guangming Rd, 830002 Urumqi, Xinjiang China, tel. (0)-991-283-2212, fax: (0)- 991-281-9357 Web Sites: Travel China Guide Travel China Guide ; China Map Guide China Map Guide ; Getting There Sites : Urumqi is accessible by air and bus and lies at the end on the main east-west train line from Beijing. It is connected to Kashgar and other Xinjiang cities to southwest by a new train that began operating in the early 2000s.Travel China Guide (click transportation) Travel China Guide Tian Shan : Wikipedia Wikipedia ; Links in this Website: XINJIANG, URUMQI Factsanddetails.com/China Kashgar Travel China Guide Travel China Guide ; Lonely Planet Lonely Planet ; China Vista China Vista ; Getting There: Kashgar is accessible by air and bus and connected to Urumqi and the rest of China by a new train that began operating in 2004. There are two daily trains between Kasghar and Urumqi that cover the 1,598 kilometer distance in about 24 hours, There are also flights on Xinjiang Airlines 757s every evening. Website: CNINFO.net Travel China Guide (click transportation) Travel China Guide Lonely Planet (click Getting There) Lonely Planet ; Links in this Website: XINJIANG. KASHGAR Factsanddetails.com/China ; XINJIANG KARAKORUM HIGHWAY Factsanddetails.com/China Terrorist Groups in Xinjiang Many scholars think that there is no organized Islamic terrorist group in Xinjiang and the various bombings and attacks have been local in nature and carried out by individuals or small groups that had some local grievance. At most there are several small groups with similar goals. If there is a large organized group it appears to lack the personnel and weaponry to carry out a sophisticated attack. James Millward of Georgetown University told the Washington Post, “The degree of organization of Uighur groups or East Turkestan separatist groups is a big question among many experts outside of China.” Beijing has said there are more than 50 “terrorist” groups fighting for independence in Xinjiang and claims that 1,000 members of 10 different groups have undergone training at camps in Afghanistan, with some returning to Xinjiang and elsewhere in China and set up secret cells. Millward and many Western analysts say the problem in Xinjiang is not a religious problem but a civil rights problem s that has to do with Uighurs feeling discriminated against and not getting job opportunities. The Chinese view the problem differently. Yu Jianrong of the Institute of Rural Development in the Chinese Academy of Sciences told the Washington Post: “The main and core issue is separatism, although it combines some farmer and land problems...We cannot regard this purely as citizens trying to protect their rights.” Whenever there is an attack or an arrest the Chinese government says that the attackers or the people arrested are members of the ETIM (See Below) or are Uighur separatist but offer no evidence to back up their claims other than those involved were Uighurs. Al- Qaida, Xinjiang and China Beijing does have justifiable concerns. Xinjiang borders Pakistan and Afghanistan, the home of many Muslim extremist and members for Al-Qaida and the Taliban. Many think the interests of Beijing would be better served if the government focused crackdowns and their paramilitary activity on Pakistan-based militant groups that slip across the border into Xinjiang and talk the more moderate a Uighur groups. American sources believe that maybe 600 or 700 Uighurs passed through the Al-Qaeda Afghanistan camps and/or fought with the Taliban. Those that were captured were young and in their 20s and 30s described as very naive. They mostly didn’t want have anything to do with Al-Qaeda and were generally supportive of the United States because it pressured China. //

//**That causes __WMD theft__**// //**Ferguson and Potter, 4** — president of the Federation of American Scientists, former project director of the Independent Task Force on U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, adjunct professor in the security studies program at Georgetown University, former scientist-in-residence at the Monterey Institute’s Center for Nonproliferation Studies, winner of the 2003 Robert S. Landauer Lecture Award from the Health Physics Society, consultant for Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Sandia National Laboratories, and the National Nuclear Security Administration, former physical scientist in the Office of the Senior Coordinator for Nuclear Safety at the U.S. Department of State, co-chairman of the U.S.-Japan Nuclear Working Group, M.A. and Ph.D. in physics from Boston University, AND, Sam Nunn and Richard Lugar Professor of Nonproliferation Studies and Founding Director of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, member of the Council on Foreign Relations, member of the International Advisory Board of the Center for Policy Studies in Russia (Charles D. and William C., “The Four Faces of Nuclear Terrorism”, Nuclear Threat Initiative, Monterey Institute, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, 2004, http://jeffreyfields.net/427/Site/Blog/30F67A03-182C-4FC7-9EFD-A7C321F6DC8D_files/analysis_4faces.pdf, Deech)//

// China has been gradually modernizing its nuclear arsenal. However, at this time, it is unclear whether this modernization program will in- crease or decrease security risks that terrorists might exploit. While more Chinese nuclear weapons might mean more opportunities for theft, a modernized force might incorporate more up-to-date security proce- dures. Isolated storage and transportation links could pose increased risks for any nation’s nuclear weapons security program. China is be- lieved to assemble nuclear warheads at a number of nuclear facilities, and the Lop Nur test site may contain a storage facility for Chinese nuclear weapons (although it is probably unused, since China has not tested a nuclear weapon since 1996).56 Lop Nur is remotely located in northwest Xinjiang province, where nationalist/ separatist organizations have been campaigning for autonomy from Beijing. Although Xinjiang separatist groups have not openly expressed interest in acquiring nuclear weapons, some reports have alleged that Uighur separatists may have stolen radioactive sources from Lop Nur in 1993.57 It is difficult to offer an overall assessment of the security of China’s nuclear arms against terrorists because Beijing has a long-standing prac- tice of not publishing sensitive information. In addition, China shows little concern (at least openly) that nuclear terrorism can occur on Chi- nese soil. While this lack of concern may be justified, the Chinese gov- ernment still has to factor in security threats posed by Xinjiang separatist s and other groups that may engage in terrorism in China. Nonetheless, the dominant role of the Chinese Communist Party and its security ap- paratus in Chinese society, and the limited presence of terrorist groups in China, appear to reduce substantially the danger that a terrorist or- ganization might gain control of an intact nuclear weapon in that country. //

//**Xinjiang terrorism causes __extinction__**// //**Cui, 12** (Jia, “No mercy for terrorist acts in Xinjiang”, China Daily, 3/8/2012, http://www.chinadailyapac.com/article/no-mercy-terrorist-acts-xinjiang, Deech)// //Many incidentsof terrorism -related violence that happened in the region in the last year actually had an international origin, Zhang Chunxian, a deputy to the National People's Congress and the Party secretary of Xinjiang, said on the sidelines of the annual NPC session " The infiltration of three overseas forces of separatists, extremists and terrorists , the social situation in nearby countries and international anti-terrorism activities may have directly or indirectly prompted such incidents," Zhang said. Three violent attacks were carried out in southern Xinjiang's Kashgar and Hotan last year and another happened last month. On Feb 28, nine terrorists armed with knives suddenly attacked a crowd on a pedestrian street on Xingfu road, in Kashgar prefecture's Yecheng county, and killed 13 people. Seven terrorists were shot dead at the scene and two were arrested. The incident was a terrorist attack targeting civilians, the regional information office said. The Yecheng incident has been properly dealt with and social order has been restored, Zhang said. Zhang said violent terrorists don't have the mindset of normal people and the government will not tolerate terrorists as their violent activities target civilians. "Their acts are against the human race. They wave knives at old people, women and children with extremely brutal means. It's not a religious problem, nor is it an ethnic problem." Xinjiang has witnessed a leapfrog in its economic development in recent years, but development doesn't necessarily bring stability, said Nur Bekri, a deputy to the NPC and chairman of Xinjiang said on Wednesday. Xinjiang's GDP rose by 12.3 percent year-on-year and reached 660 billion yuan ($105 billion) last year. Average per capita income of urban residents in the region increased to 15,514 yuan in 2011, a 13.7-percent hike year-on-year, and the average per capita income of rural residents increased by 17.2 percent to reach 5,442 yuan. "Meanwhile, without a stable social environment, the region could not be further developed," he added. "Maintaining the region's stability is still a grim and overwhelming task." He said that terrorist organizations, such as the East Turkistan Islamic Movement campaigning for Xinjiang's independence in neighboring Pakistan, havecountless links with terrorists within the region , which covers one-sixth of China's landmass and borders eight countries, including Pakistan, Afghanistan and India. "Violent activities by individual terrorists will not affect the close friendship between China and Pakistan," Nur said. " **Anti-terrorism is a global task, as terrorism is threatening the lives of all people in the world** ." //

//**Second is the __Uzbek cotton industry__ — it requires __massive irrigation__ which __shrinks the Aral Sea__**// //**EJF, 2k** (Environmental Justice Foundation, “The Aral Sea Crisis”, page last modified 7/2/2012, http://www.ejfoundation.org/page146.html, Deech)// // Once the world's fourth largest body of inland water, the Aral has now shrunk to just 15% of its former volume. Its salinity has risen by almost 600% and all native fish are gone from its waters. Over 40,000 km2 of the former sea bed is now exposed - an area equivalent in size to six million football (soccer) pitches. Trawlers lie stranded and commercial fishing activities have long since ground to a halt. Before the expansion of Uzbekistan's cotton production, the Aral Sea was home to 24 native species of fish. Its waters encompassed over 1100 islands forming countless lagoons and shallow straits, and on the open seas, fleets of trawlers landed 40,000 tonnes of fish every year. But the Aral's receding shoreline and rising salinity have had a devastating impact on the ecosystems it used to support. While the damage to the Aral Sea's ecosystems began in the Soviet era, the situation has deteriorated substantially under the Karimov administration. Indeed, between 1990 and 2000 the sea's total volume decreased by almost 50%. **The decline of the Aral Sea is closely linked to Uzbekistan's cotton irrigation systems which draw water from the region's two major rivers** : the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya. Together these giant waterways once carried more water than the Nile. But because of Uzbekistan's exhaustive demand for irrigation, the volume of water now reaching the Aral Sea has declined substantially. Indeed, at certain times of year the Amu Darya river runs dry long before it reaches the Aral Sea. According to recent data from the World Bank, Uzbekistan's irrigated cotton fields currently consume an average 14,000 m3 of water per hectare every year. With 1.47 million hectares under cotton this would equate to over 20 km3 of water annually. The water demand created by Uzbekistan's irrigated cotton fields is exacerbated by the country's decrepit infrastructure. A recent report suggested that irrigation and drainage infrastructure is beginning to fall apart; canals are silted up or damaged, gates are broken or non-existent, and pumps are held together by improvised repairs and parts cannibalised from other machinery. Estimates now suggest that up to 60% of water diverted from the rivers fails to reach the fields. //

//**The impact is __lethal pandemics__ – it exposes the worst biological weapons test site to the mainland**// //**CNN, 99** (“Anthrax time bomb ticking in Aral Sea, researchers say”, 6/21/1999, http://articles.cnn.com/1999-06-21/world/9906_21_anthrax.island_1_ken-alibek-anthrax-spores-vozrozhdeniye?_s=PM:WORLD, Deech)// // SAN FRANCISCO CNN In the 1960s, Vozrozhdeniye was merely a tiny island in the vast Aral Sea. Today, with the sea reduced to half its former size, and a much larger Vozrozhdeniye closing in on the shore, some U.S. researchers believe the island is a toxic time bomb set to infect central Asia with some of the deadliest germs on Earth. According to the Monterey Institute of International Studies in California, Vozrozhdeniye was a secret biological weapons test site. Soviet, and later Russian, scientists routinely released deadly agents including plague, small pox, tularemia and anthrax into the air over the island for much of the last 50 years, the institute claims. These weapons were extraordinarily potent. Some of them were actually engineered, genetically, to become more lethal than the strains in nature, said the institutes Jonathan Tucker. In 1988, in a hasty effort to bury evidence of its alleged biological warfare program, the Soviet military hauled tons of bleachsoaked anthrax canisters to Vozrozhdeniye, doused them with even more bleach and then dumped them, the institute says. The Monterey Institute claims that anthrax is still simmering in the islands soil. Tucker said that U.S. scientists who took samples from Vozrozhdeniye in 1997 were able to recover viable spores that could be grown in a culture to form live anthrax bacteria. Russia has never acknowledged any role in the anthrax dump. But the institutes allegations are backed by a former top Russian biological researcher. It is clear, when you destroy tons and tons of their weapons, it wouldnt be possible to kill everything. And now, what we know, is this island is contaminated, said Ken Alibek, who was chief of Russias biological weapons research and development program before defecting to the United States in 1992. If anthrax spores have survived, it is possible rodents, birds and other wildlife on the island have been infected, researchers said. And because of another environmental disaster, the shrinking of the Aral Sea, the island could be connected to the mainland within a few years. Since 1960, the sea has been systematically reduced because of the diversion of water from two key feeding rivers, the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya, to irrigate nearby crop land. By the late 1980s, the sea had lost more than half the volume of its water and had just slightly more than half its former depth left. With Vozrozhdeniye now expanding toward the shore, scientists fear infected animals could soon spread toxins to neighboring Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. This islandis definitely a potential time bomb, because the shrinking of the sea and the likely emergence within a few years of a land bridge to the mainland and the possibility that insects and rodents, carrying deadly diseases, could cross over and infect the local population , Tucker said. //

//**That risks outbreaks of genetically engineered smallpox that overcomes vaccines**// //**O’Sullivan, 5 –** Center for Risk and Economic Assessment of Terrorism Events (CREATE) University of Southern California (Terrence, “THE UNCERTAIN DYNAMICS OF GLOBAL BIOTERRORISM: SMALLPOX AS A HYPOTHETICAL CASE FOR RISKS AND RESPONSES” [|http://create.usc.edu/research/50763.pdf)//DH]//

//Second, and perhaps even more alarming, however, are the reports and circumstantial evidence that the Soviets enhanced the disease causing abilities of smallpox and many already deadly agents. The former bioweapons scientists related details about the aggressive weaponization of agents, as well as experimentation with isolating ever more deadly and virulent strains of different bioagents, and pursuit of bioengineering enabling a smallpox agent to overcome the immune systems of even vaccinated people. 15 This is true as well with smallpox weapons development. A former Soviet army general bragged in a press interview about the potency of the smallpox virus that in 1971 reportedly exposed a research ship sailing off of Vozrozhdeniye Island in the Aral Sea, and may have led to a smallpox epidemic in the city of Aralsk, Kazakhstan. This outbreak was noteworthy in that it sickened even those who had been vaccinated against smallpox – an immunity that normally should have afforded substantial protection from the virus in most people for at least ten years after receiving the vaccinia inoculation. 16 Just as sobering was the fact that of the three who died, though they were unvaccinated, all appear to have contracted the rare (averaging 2 percent of natural cases) and almost universally fatal hemorraghic version of smallpox. While the cases are too few to be statistically significant, there is circumstantial evidence that the outbreak was caused by a particularly deadly smallpox strain, possibly India-1. And if true, such a strain had also survived aerosol dissemination of smallpox virus from the Aral Sea bioweapons facility – over a distance of as much as 15 kilometers. Such a bioweapon could overcome the standard transmissibility limitations of unaltered smallpox virus and be capable of infecting countless numbers of people simultaneously. And as noted above, an even greater danger is the threat of an engineered smallpox virus, capable of overcoming the immune systems of even those inoculated against the disease. 17//

//**The spread of genetically engineered smallpox risks extinction**// //**Posner, 5** - professor of law and economics at the University of Chicago (Richard, Skeptic, Winter, “Catastrophe”, proquest)//DH

The smallpox virus is stable in aerosol form and has an infectious incubation period of seven to seventeen days .112 Even when symptoms do appear, at the end of that period, they frequently are mistaken for those of other diseases, such as flu or even chickenpox.11^ The aerosols of smallpox virus in the exhalations of an infected person carry for several meters so that,114 without an effective vaccine, hospital workers and family members would be quickly infected by the first wave of infected persons, especially if the disease hadn't been identified. The average reproduction rate of smallpox that is, the number of persons likely to be infected by contagion from one infected person, a number that varies not only with the contagiousness of the disease and the length of time before the infected person dies and so ceases to be contagious but also with the density of population and frequency of interactions among people and of course the extent and efficacy of vaccination-is 5.5.115 Suppose a terrorist infected 1,000 people at widely separated locations; each of the victims infected on average 5.5 others within three days, who in turn infected on average 5.5 others in the same period , and this continued for three weeks, that is, for seven rounds. By then more than 150 million people would have become infected (1,000 χ 5.57J. Border controls and other methods of preventing terrorists from achieving physical proximity to their victims, which are the methods recommended for preventing suicide terrorism,116 would not work against this type of attack. An innocent person flying from Athens airport to the United States who had been infected with smallpox at the Athens airport could become the port of entry for smallpox in the United States. With smallpox spreading as the result of an attack such as I have described and the vaccine ineffective-for I am assuming a "juiced-up" smallpox virus similar to the juiced-up mousepox virus created by the Australian scientists and no cure, only isolation (of everyone known to be infected or thought to have been exposed to the disease) or quarantining (isolating everyone who might have been exposed to it) could limit the further spread of the disease. Quarantining is the more costly measure, both to those administering it and to the population at large, because more people are subject to it,117 but it is hard to see how it could be avoided in the case of a large-scale outbreak of smallpox. Yet it might well be ineffectual. __The relatively long infectious incubation period of smallpox would allow the disease to spread to a great distance before a quarantine could be imposed__.118 Many health workers would be infected, and those who were not, lacking vaccine protection, would be reluctant to approach infected persons, and if they did, their ranks would be rapidly thinned as they caught the disease. If the terrorist avoided detection, he could continue spreading the disease even after known victims had been quarantined, until he himself became disabled by it. __Isolated human populations might escape infection but might not be viable in a world from which most of the human race, perhaps including all the urban populations and all health workers, had vanished. The occasional outbreaks of smallpox in modern times before its eradication were quickly contained__.119 __But these were isolated outbreaks rather than implementations of a plan of widespread destruction.__ And many potential victims, plus hospital and other public health workers, had been vaccinated. __A terrorist who got hold of smallpox virus, gene spliced it as was done with the mousepox virus, grew the virus in living cells, and extracted modest quantities of the virus in fluid form could place the fluid in aerosolizers__ that he would unobtrusively deposit in airport departure lounges, shopping malls, movie theaters, indoor stadiums, and other enclosed spaces in which people congregate. The aerosolizers would spray an invisible mist that could infect hundreds or even thousands of people within a few minutes at each location, all of whom would then be carriers.120 __Within weeks, hundreds of millions of people around the world would be infected, and the disease would be unstoppable__. A bizarre wrinkle is that airports are beginning to install air fresheners, which a terrorist could switch with dispensers of aerosolized bioweapons without anyone noticing.

//__Textile firms__, once an export engine of China, __are fighting for__ __their survival__ this year __with rising costs and dismal overseas market__ hit by the subprime crisis. Those firms wooing foreign buyers at the 103rd China Import and Export Fair, the largest trade fair in the country also called the Canton Fair, felt the pinch. __Few__ __buyers__ visited their exhibition stall, and fewer still __signed contracts.__ William Lowry, an American clothing buyer, came to the fair for the 20th time this year. It was different from previous years because this time he just looked, he did not buy. " __Chinese product competitiveness was not much__ __as it was. I'm thinking of buying from other countries. The reduction in tax rebates and the devaluation of the dollar have made Chinese products 20 percent higher than what it was.__ " "Twenty percent means I'm looking elsewhere," William said. The Chinese currency has ventured below the seven yuan mark since the government loosened the unit's peg to the dollar in 2005. __The yuan has gained about 18 percent since then. This has made Chinese textile products more expensive and its price advantage has almost vanished compared with products from Vietnam and India__. The yuan appreciation, together with the rising material and labor costs, has driven some textile firms to the brink of bankruptcy. Source: China Textile Network Company - 4 The Lanyan Group, the largest denim products manufacturer based in the eastern Shandong Province, received only one million-meter cloth order this year, one fifth last year's total. In the area where Lanyan is, only 70 out of over 100 textile factories are working normally. Even those still operating are finishing their previous orders, said Zhang Meng, a manager with the Lanyan Group. Anyway, the textile firms are finding ways to survive. Changing the price tag is sure to be the first choice for many of the textile exhibitors on the fair. "Our quoted price is 10 percent higher than last spring. Our labor cost increased 10 percent and dyeing costs rose eight percent last year," said Yang Hongchang, a sales manager of Ningbo Yongnan Knitting Co Ltd, a major knitted coat and T-Shirt exporter to Europe, Canada, New Zealand and Russia. However, __the price rise has made foreign buyers hesitate before making their decision.__ "Australia is a small country in population and we are a small company. __We're affected by the States and people don't want to spend now.__ "The price is seven to ten percent higher than last year. I have to look and see," said a manager with Des Rowe, an Australian footwear agency, without giving his name. //
 * Third is the __Chinese textile industry__ — it’s on the brink now**
 * PRC Ministry of Commerce 2008**(4/25, "Chinese textile firms struggle to survive in 2008", China Textile Network Company, http://textination.de/en/tiw/2008/TIW04252008.pdf) //EL//

//**Only strong U.S. cotton export competitiveness __jumpstarts__ the industry**// //**Kantz 10**—agricultural trade magazine reporter ( Brian, “U.S. Cotton Gearing Up”, International Cotton Magazine, May, ProQuest, EL) // //__The world's top cotton exporter looks to capitalize on growing world demand__ Like all cotton-producing nations, the United States needs a good year. Or at least a decent year. __Along the entire supply chain, the American cotton industry wants to prove that it is heading in a positive direction and that the challenges of the past several years are behind it.__ Fortunately for the U.S., early signs say that 2010 //11 will be a good cotton year. "Across the U.S. Cotton Belt, especially in Texas and other parts of the Southeast, folks are feeling better about the industry," says Dr. Mark D. Lange, president and CEO of the National Cotton Council (NCC) of America. The NCC represents the interests of American cotton producers, ginners, warehousers, merchants, cottonseeders, cooperatives and manufacturers. "The good news for us is that the world needs a great deal of U.S. cotton. And since prices are a little stronger than they have been in the last six or seven years, that's giving people a general sense of optimism." China Needs U.S. Cotton It's true. __Demand for cotton is on the rise and consumers will rely on the United States - the world's largest cotton exporter - to supply much of the fiber__. Earlier this year, Joseph W. Glauber, chief economist for the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), put a number on the need, reporting that __"world cotton production (up 10.5 percent) and consumption (up 2.6 percent) are both projected to rise in 2010-11, with world consumption outpacing the increase in production due to continued economic recovery."__ As prices have risen with the increasing demand, American producers have been persuaded to increase plantings for the 2010 growing year. In fact, this will be the first increase in cotton acreage in the U.S. in the last three years. A March report from the USDA projected U.S. planted area at 10.5 million acres, up 15 percent from 2009. This would produce a crop of 16.0 million bales, up nearly 30 percent from 2009 based on a normal weather assumption. Of the total projected crop, "U.S. exports will be limited by available supplies and are forecast at 12.6 million bales, leaving ending stocks of about 3.4 million," Glauber reported. __China, the world's leading consumer of cotton, is thought to be in significant need of cotton supply this year. China's domestic planting of cotton is forecast to decline by 4.9 percent from 2009, while its imports may increase by as much as 30 percent__, according to the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences. Interestingly, the U.S. share of Chinese imports was 60 percent in 2008/09, but dropped to 25 percent in 2009/10. During that same period, India's share of Chinese imports rocketed from 10 percent in 2008-09 to 40 percent in 2009/10. This April, however, the Government of India announced a ban on cotton exports. If the ban lasts, it could mean a windfall for American cotton, as it would once again become the chief cotton supplier to China. Supply Chain Report Across the various sectors of the U.S. cotton industry, anticipation is building. And that feeling starts with the producers. "Most regions have adequate soil moisture heading into the season, which is different than the last several years. From the reports I've seen, Texas is setting up for a particularly big crop this year," says Lange. "More acres are being planted to cotton and planting conditions are favorable.

// Sample Article: China: Rescuing the Textile Industry Summary A proposal by China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to raise export tax rebate rates for its textile and garment sectors seems likely to be implemented. __China's textile sector is under__ __severe stress, but Beijing cannot allow it to collapse. There is a fair chance the Communist Party's grip on internal stability would go down with it.__ Analysis A proposal to increase export tax rebate rates for the Chinese textile and garment sectors, floated June 6 by the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, appears likely to be implemented, a source told STRATFOR on June 12. The move would mark a reversal of a key tenet of the government's economic reform program. It is not clear whether the source's information was based on a conversation with senior Chinese officials or simply on a fresh batch of rumors. However, regardless of its origins, STRATFOR believes such a positive call to be well-founded. __China's textile sector is under severe stress, but Beijing cannot allow it to collapse without risking widespread social instability that could threaten the government's hold on power. Textiles are one of the most vital pillars of economic stability in China. The industry accounted for 57 percent of China's $262 billion 2007 trade surplus,__ and it supports more than 20 million textile workers, 65 percent of whom are rural migrant workers. From China's opening up in the 1980s until recent years, textiles export tax rebates were one of the primary ways in which the Chinese government channeled indirect state subsidies to the industry. Only once the sector had gathered enough self-sustaining momentum -- and in response to intensifying foreign political pressure over a soaring trade surplus and spiraling energy costs -- did Beijing start slashing tax rebates. Now, however, __China's textile sector is skating on thin ice__. Although the sector's absolute export sales value continues to hit new record monthly highs -- reaching $14.6 billion in April -- __its rate of growth has started slipping. In the same month, growth in China's textiles and apparel exports slowed__ to 11.6 percent compared to April 2007. In addition, about 80 percent of the country's textiles export income goes to less than one-third of China's total pool of textile businesses. __When absolute export sales eventually start dipping, the first ones to feel the pinch will be the bottom two-thirds of exporters -- especially the smaller-scale enterprises that have been China's engine of new job creation in recent years. This in turn would lead to an overnight loss of tens of thousands of jobs, provoking massive social instability.__ For exporters of textile products and garments, the last crunch came in 2004, when the rebate rate for their exported goods fell from 17 percent to the current 11 percent. China wanted to cut down on its excessive energy consumption (textiles is one of the most energy-intensive industries) and start transitioning its economy from a high-polluting, export-driven model to a self-sustaining one driven by domestic consumption. Until the global economy and demand for Chinese exports started to look shaky over the past year, the lower export rebates had become the norm. Now, the textile industry appears to be structuring itself in anticipation that tax rebates will start going back up. Since the beginning of 2008, rumors have been rife that tax rebates would be lowered again. However, the president of the China National Textile and Apparel Association (CNTAA) said May 9 that textile tax rebates have hit a floor and will not be lowered any further. After that, rumors began to fly that rebates would start going back up. Since the comment, companies have started factoring in lower operating costs on the basis of higher future tax rebate levels. Whether firms are doing this through blind optimism or for lack of any other survival means, __the situation puts a certain pressure on Beijing__. At this point __, failing to fulfill these industry expectations would essentially pull the plug on hundreds of thousands of Chinese textile companies__. Official statistics confirm that there are more than 40,000 textile companies that earn $660,000 or more in annual export sales. (Even this number is understated, however, given the number of companies operating under the government radar and smaller companies with earnings below the threshold.) The proposal to increase rebates has the backing of Beijing's most powerful political and economic players. These include the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce, the central bank, and China's key textile-related industry bodies, the CNTAA and the China Cotton Association. Beijing usually issues policy proposals for public comment only after any main internal controversies or disagreements inside the top leadership circles have been ironed out. Given this level of support, and given that the official stamp of approval already has been granted to this particular proposal document, it is certain that some policy move will result. Signs have appeared in recent months indicating that China is trying to prepare itself for any impending dip in the fortunes of the export sector. Beijing's Labor Protection Bureau recently issued a call for Chinese companies to increase workers' pay by at least 3.5 percent -- a clear indication that __the government is trying to ward off potential social unrest.__ China's Communist regime is trying to buy itself some time to counterbalance the Chinese textile sector's inevitable long-term decline. The textiles industry has its problems; it is highly energy-intensive and responsible for much of the foreign pressure on China for the trade surplus. But __Beijing needs to keep the industry afloat, at least in the short to medium term, for its own economic, social and political survival. If the industry collapses, there is a good chance the Communist Party's grip on internal stability will go down with it --__ in which case energy concerns and foreign pressure on trade surplus figures become irrelevant, to the regime at least. //
 * That solves CCP instability**
 * Stratfor 08** **-** subscription-based provider of geopolitical analysis 6/12 [China: Rescuing the Textile Industry, http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/china_rescuing_textile_industry] //EL//

//**Nuclear war**// //**Renxing, 5** (San, The Epoch Times “The CCP's Last-ditch Gamble: Biological and Nuclear War. Hundreds of millions of deaths proposed”, 8/5/2005, http://en.epochtimes.com/news/5-8-5/30931.html)// // Since the Party’s life is “above all else,” **__it would not be surprising if the CCP resorts to the use of__** biological, chemical, and **__nuclear weapons__** in its attempt **__to extend its life__**__. The CCP__, which disregards human life, __would not hesitate to kill two hundred million Americans, along with seven or eight hundred million Chinese__ , to achieve its ends. These speeches let the public see the CCP for what it really is. With evil filling its every cell the CCP intends to wage a war against humankind in its desperate attempt to cling to life. That is the main theme of the speeches. This theme is murderous and utterly evil. In China we have seen beggars who coerced people to give them money by threatening to stab themselves with knives or pierce their throats with long nails. But we have never, until now, seen such a gangster who would use biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons to threaten the world, that they will die together with him. This bloody confession has confirmed __the CCP__ ’s nature: That of __a monstrous murderer who has killed 80 million Chinese people and who now plans to hold one billion__ people __hostage and gamble with their lives__. //

//** Fourth is the Amazon-Increased U.S cotton exports stop Brazilian expansion in the market - empirics **// //**__ New York Times ‘4 __** (June 29, Brazil's Big Stake in Cotton Likely to Become Bigger, [])// EL

__It all depends on prices,__ said Mr. Oliveira, 40, who is also president of the São Paulo state cotton growers' association. __If prices are attractive, people here are going to plant more cotton.__ And __if the United States is forced to get rid of its subsidies, you can bet that prices will go up and you'll see a lot more cotton around here.__ In its W.T.O. complaint, __Brazil contended that__ the more than $3 billion in __annual subsidies paid out to American cotton growers led to increased output in the United__ States and artificially depressed global prices __, robbing Brazil of potential export markets__ and undercutting the livelihood of its farmers. The subsidies have helped make the United States the world's second-largest cotton producer and the leading cotton exporter, with more than 40 percent of the global market. Using data from the United States Department of Agriculture, Brazil argued that __American cotton exports would fall 41 percent__ and production would drop 29 percent __if Washington scrapped its subsidies.__ It also estimated that world cotton prices would rise 12.6 percent, __helping farmers in developing countries like Brazil that do not have the benefit of government subsidies__. The United States has vowed to appeal the W.T.O. decision, saying that the aid programs for American cotton producers are fully consistent with international trade rules. Because the appeals process can drag on for months, maybe years, it is unlikely that Washington will cut cotton subsidies sharply anytime soon. But if Brazil's challenge survives the appeal, Congress could eventually be forced to reduce all agricultural subsidies, which total about $19 billion a year. This could have implications far broader than cotton, said Brink Lindsey, director of the Center for Trade Policy Studies at the libertarian Cato Institute in Washington. __Without United States cotton__ __subsidies,__ according to the Brazilian Association of Cotton Producers, __Brazil could double its cotton production in just two years.__ Brazil, South America's largest country, is already on track to harvest a record 1.38 million tons of cotton this season, more than twice as much as it produced five years ago. Exports are booming and could bring in as much as $600 million in 2004, the same amount spent in 2003 to import cotton from abroad, much of it from the United States.


 * Brazilian Cotton Expansion collapses the Amazon and the Cerrado **
 * __ La Vina 7 __**- Antonio, Dean of the Ateneo School of Government, Lindsey Fransen, Associate @ World Resources Institute, Paul Faeth, Managing Director at the World Resources, Yuko Kurauchi, Consultant @ World Bank, ‘7 [January, UNEPI Policy Note, Agriculture Subsidies, Poverty, and the Environment, []] //EL

__Cotton production in Brazil__, along with a number of other agricultural commodities such as soy and livestock, __is primarily carried out by large-scale, mechanized farming operations (ICAC 2002). The success of agribusiness has contributed to overall economic growth in Brazil, but outcomes for__ the poor and for __the environment have been mixed.__ Structural changes in the agricultural sector favoring large farms have increased production and export earnings, but they have placed smaller, poor farmers under increased competitive pressure (OECD 2005). Not only can this increase rural poverty, but __the expansion of large farms can have the effect of pushing small-scale farmers off agricultural land and into ecologically vulnerable areas such as the Cerrado (savannahs) and Amazon__ (WWF 2003). Thus, __if subsidy reductions in the United States create incentives for increasing cotton production in Brazil, special safeguards may be necessary to ensure__ that the reforms indeed allow small-scale farmers to beneﬁt along with larger operations, and __that the environment is protected__.


 * Amazon destruction causes extinction. **
 * __ Takacs 96 __** - Ph.D. in science and technology studies @ Cornell, Professor of Environmental Humanities, Institute for Earth Systems Science and Policy, California State University, Monterey Bay, David, The Idea of Biodiversity: Philosophies of Paradise, p. 200-1] EL

" __Habitat destruction and conversion are eliminating species at such a frightening pace that extinction of many contemporary species and the systems they live in and support ... may lead to ecological disaster and severe alteration of the evolutionary process__ ," Terry Erwin writes." And E. 0. Wilson notes: "The question I am asked most frequently about the diversity of life: __if enough species are extinguished, will the ecosystem collapse, and will the extinction of most other species follow soon afterward? The only answer anyone can give is: possibly__. __By the time we find out, however, it might be too late. One planet, one experiment.__ "" So biodiversity keeps the world running. It has value in and for itself, as well as for us. Raven, Erwin, and Wilson oblige us to think about the value of biodiversity for our own lives. The Ehrlichs' rivet-popper trope makes this same point; __by eliminating rivets, we play Russian roulette with global ecology and human futures: "It is likely that destruction of the rich complex of species in the Amazon basin could trigger rapid changes in global climate patterns. Agriculture remains heavily dependent on stable climate, and human beings remain heavily dependent on food.__ By the end of the century __the extinction of__ __perhaps a million species in the Amazon basin could have entrained famines in which a billion human beings perished. And if our species is very unlucky, the famines could lead to a thermonuclear war, which could extinguish civilization.""__ Elsewhere, Ehrlich uses different particulars with no less drama: __What then will happen if the current decimation of organic diversity continues? Crop yields will be more difficult to maintain in the face of climatic change, soil erosion, loss of dependable water supplies, decline of pollinators, and ever more serious assaults by pests__. __Conversion of productive land to wasteland will accelerate__ ; deserts will continue their seemingly inexorable expansion. Air pollution will increase, and local climates will become harsher. __Humanity will have to forgo many of the direct economic benefits it might have withdrawn from Earth's well stocked genetic library.__ It might, for example, miss out on a cure for cancer; but that will make little difference. As ecosystem services falter, mortality from respiratory and epidemic disease, natural disasters, and especially famine will lower life expectancies to the point where cancer (largely a disease of the elderly) will be unimportant. __Humanity will bring__ __upon itself consequences depressingly similar to those expected from a nuclear winter. Barring a nuclear conflict, it appears that civilization will disappear some time before the end of the next century__ not __with a__ bang but a __whimper__. 14

Solvency

 * Contention 4** **– solvency**


 * The federal government is key – port infrastructure is under __federal jurisdiction__ and federal action is vital to __leadership__ **
 * AAPA, 11** - AAPA represents 160 of the leading seaport authorities in the United States, Canada, Latin America and the Caribbean and more than 300 sustaining and associate members, firms and individuals with an interest in seaports (American Association of Port Authorities, “The U.S. Government’s Historic Role in Developing and Maintaining Landside and Waterside Connections to Seaports”, March 2011, [|http://aapa.files.cms-plus.com/PDFs/Transportation%20and%20the%20Constitution1.pdf)//GP]

Over time these constitutional responsibilities have been further defined and __our Constitution has formed the basis for the U.S. government to play a significant role in our nation’s transportation and infrastructure system__. As established in the timeline on page 2, over the years the leaders of our country saw that it was in the national interest to ensure that our ports, waterways, railways and highways benefited from federal oversight and support. For four centuries, beginning with the founding of the Jamestown colony, seaports have served as a vital economic lifeline for America by bringing goods and services to people, creating economic activity and enhancing the overall quality of life. Seaports continue to be the critical link for access to the global marketplace here in the United States handling more than 99 percent of cargoes. __Maintaining our national infrastructure that supports foreign and interstate commerce is__ not only __a federal responsibility__ but is in the national interest as established by our forefathers. In fact, improving waterways and coastal ports for navigation and national security is__the__ __most federal of infrastructure responsibilities__, dating to the early missions assigned the Continental Army by then General George Washington. In Federalist Paper #42 written by James Madison, a case is made that the powers conferred by the Constitution for regulating commerce and establishing post roads are essential. He wrote: “Nothing which tends to facilitate the intercourse between the States can be deemed unworthy of the public care.” Back to Basics In these times of a tightening Federal Budget, as Congress and the Administration take on the task of prioritizing expenditures, we need to identify and prioritize core federal missions that are in the national interest and help to revitalize our economy. Modern, navigable seaports are vitalto international commerce and economic prosperity. For this to be a reality, Federal government investment is needed to maintain and strengthen our nation’s infrastructure that supports foreign and interstate commerce— the underpinnings of our economic security. These are wise investments that pay dividends immediately and over time, and form the backbone of our economy and society at large. Investments in port infrastructure are multipliers, as they create infrastructure that allows long-term job creation, //positioning the United States as a leader// __in international trade and commerce__. Waterways Pursuant to Article 1, Section 8 of the United States Constitution, Congress, by statute, has reserved jurisdiction over navigable waters for the federal government, which can determine how the waters are used, by whom, and under what conditions. As a result, the federal government takes the lead in building, maintaining, and operating the nation’s navigation channels. Authority to construct and maintain navigation projects on behalf of the United States was granted to the Corps of Engineers in the General Survey Act of 1824. In 1826, Congress passed the first Rivers and Harbors Act and provided funds to the Corps to make specific navigation improvements to the Ohio, Mississippi, and Missouri Rivers. Congress has continued to appropriate funds for specific navigation projects and the Corps has played a dual role by assessing, as well as implementing, needed projects in federal navigation channels. In 1899, Congress enacted the Rivers and Harbors Act, which makes it unlawful to undertake any modifications of navigable water channels unless authorized by the Secretary of the Army on the recommendation of the Corps of Engineers. It is well established that __the Commerce Clause is the basis for__ //exclusive federal jurisdiction// __over navigable waterways__. __The__ landmark United States __Supreme Court__ case of Gibbons v. Ogden, 22 U.S. 1 (1824) __found that__ __navigation of vessels in and out of__ the __ports__ of the nation __is a form of interstate commerce and that__ //federal law takes precedence// .Federal authority over navigable waterways has been repeatedly affirmed by the U.S. Supreme Court. Highways and Intermodal Connectors With interstate commerce and connectivity as the impetus, the federal role in ensuring a contiguous system of roads spanning the states has been implicit in our federal government since the writing of the Constitution. These powers were granted to Congress in Article I, Section 8 of the U.S. Constitution by the clauses describing the regulation of commerce with foreign nations and among the several states …” and the responsibility “to establish Post Offices and Post Roads.” As the timeline illustrates, since the founding of this great nation, our most visionary leaders have engaged in national infrastructure initiatives. The highway system as we know it today was largely borne out of the 1939 Bureau of Public Roads report commissioned by Franklin Delano Roosevelt titled Toll Roads and Free Roads, which proposed a map of a transcontinental national superhighway system. This led to President Eisenhower’s Federal-Aid Highway of 1956 and subsequent development of the Interstate System. Without the federal role in planning, coordinating and providing funding, our current system of inter-regional highways would not have been possible. Today, this federal responsibility continues through the surface transportation programs funded largely by federal gas taxes. Highways, arterials and secondary roads that are identified as being important to the nation's economy, defense, and mobility are classified as part of the National Highway System (NHS) and are eligible for federal funds through the federal-aid program. Road infrastructure that accesses major intermodal terminals, including seaports, are designated NHS connectors by the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT). While accounting for less than one percent of total NHS mileage, this important infrastructure represents a critical link in the goods movement value chain, carrying truck traffic between transportation modes and to the broader network of the interstate system. According to the Federal Highway Administration, of the 616 total defined NHS intermodal connectors, 253 are connected to ocean and river ports. Of the 1,222 total miles defined as part of the NHS intermodal connectors, 532 miles are port-related infrastructure. Unfortunately, these roads are often inadequate and in poor condition, plagued by inadequate turning radii and shoulder deficiencies and have been found to have twice the percentage of mileage with pavement deficiencies when compared to non-interstate NHS routes according to a study conducted by USDOT. States and MPOs have traditionally assigned freight-focused projects a low priority when compared with passenger-related improvements. Due to their freight-focused nature, NHS connectors generally do not fare well in project selection within the State and MPO planning processes. This critical infrastructure is more important than ever as our nation rebuilds the economy and creates jobs by expanding commerce through free trade agreements and increasing America’s exports and international competitiveness. These roads are key pieces of our connection to the world marketplace. In addition to their national economic importance, NHS Intermodal connectors are vital to defense mobilization and national security. With the military's increasing reliance on strategic ports and commercial trucking for mobility, intermodal connectors are critical to national defense planning. Given the reliance of our national economy and defense on intermodal connectors, __it is important that the federal government remain engaged in__ __identifying, prioritizing and funding improvements to this critical infrastructure____which has__ //languished when dependent upon State and local planning// //processes.// Summary From the earliest days of our nation, there has been a clear and __consistent federal role and national interest in developing and maintaining landside and waterside connections to America’s seaports__. This vital transportation infrastructure literally connects American farmers, manufacturers and consumers to the world marketplace. More than a quarter of U.S. GDP and over 13 million jobs are accounted for by international trade. Especially in challenging fiscal times like today, it is critical that basic, core federal missions such as these, that directly impact America’s economic vitality, jobs, and global competitiveness, be recognized and prioritized.


 * Federal leadership is vital to expediting new projects and coordinating federal agencies – it creates faster infrastructure development**
 * Woodley Jr. 8** — Chairman – PIANC (Permanent International Association of Navigation Congresses) USA (John Paul, “Dredging key to keeping nation’s economy afloat”, Seaports Magazine, [], Summer) EL

Like many nations, __the United States will be challenged over the next decade to be able to accommodate the projected rapid increases in trade at its harbors.__ z __The United States is moving toward an adequate channel infrastructure to handle the larger containerships now being introduced into the world fleet,__ but __in order to handle them we need to: • Provide a reliable funding stream to complete ongoing channel construction projects__ on optimal schedules; • __Work toward consensus between government agencies at all levels and with stakeholders on how to move forward on critical authorized or ongoing channel improvements;__ • __Streamline the project study, design and authorization process to the extent possible; • Work with state and local port authorities to move quickly to add additional landside cargo-handling facilities and to improve intermodal connections__ ; and • Explore opportunities for short-sea shipping to minimize the overland move and reduce highway and rail congestion. __I submit that the United States needs to be working toward a national commitment to create and maintain a network of harbors equal to or better than any other nation’s__. To reach this goal, __we should consider establishing multiyear funding streams and project authorizations__ determined at least three to five years out to enable all stakeholders to plan and react accordingly. Finally, __we need a visionary leadership process to balance all multiple demands on use of water.If the Army Corps of Engineers, other federal agencies, states, local governments and the nongovernment sector communicate the state of the nation’s infrastructure to the Congress, we could see a renewed emphasis__. Collaboration is key to accomplish this goal – collaboration to modernize our harbors and bring them up to 21st century needs, to deliver environmentally sustainable solutions, and to work alongside other water interests, including government and nongovernment organizations. There are opportunities to change the way we do business, save valuable resources and improve our performance. Together, we can ensure our water transportation systems continue to be our trade window to the world. In so doing, __we will do our part to keep America’s economy strong for generations to come.__

It's just before noon on a recent weekday, and the nation's fastest-growing container shipping port is bustling with activity. Massive, 10-story-high cranes, each shaped like an upside down "U," lift tractor-trailer-size containers onto and off cargo ships at dockside. A station checking for radioactivity in containers leaving the port clicks right along, while a non-stop stream of trucks enters and leaves the 1,200-acre facility. The freight moving through here touches the lives of people in 15 states, some 44% of the nation's population. __Even more critically, as the USA seeks to double exports in the next five years, this is one of the nation's few major ports with a higher percentage of exports than imports. Those exports – such as kaolin clay from Sandersville, Ga.; poultry from around the region; grain from the Midwest; automobiles from Southeast plants, and chemicals from around the nation – accounted for nearly one-eighth of the USA's containerized exports in 2010__. Now, __this port__ – like others along the U.S. Atlantic Coast – __is at a critical crossroads__. Their fate is tied to the first major expansion of the Panama Canal in its nearly 100-year history. When that project is completed in 2014, the canal's larger locks will be able to accommodate cargo ships with three times the current capacity. Those larger vessels, known as "post-Panamax" ships, will be calling at ports here and elsewhere on the East Coast. The problem: The port in Norfolk, Va., is the only one on the East Coast that has a channel deep enough to accommodate the larger vessels. As a result, other __ports along the Atlantic Ocean are scrambling to dredge deeper channels so they can handle the bigger ships. "**Other countries** throughout the world **are looking at what is necessary in terms of their own (shipping) infrastructure to be competitive**in world trade__ ," says Kurt Nagle, president and CEO of the American Association of Port Authorities. " __It's something the U.S. really needs to be doing. The general concern is the **U.S. is behind** **the curve** and really at the stage of needing to play catch-up."__ Officials say the Panama Canal expansion will mean some ships that previously had to deliver their freight to the generally deeper ports of the West Coast, where goods are moved mainly by rail across the nation, will be able to deliver goods more efficiently via all-water routes directly to East Coast ports. Officials such as Page Siplon, executive director of Georgia's Center of Innovation for Logistics, say there could be a 25% to 30% shift in freight shipping. __A long-sought Port of Savannah channel-deepening project would result in 15% to 20% cheaper shipping costs__, says Chris Cummiskey, Georgia's commissioner of economic development. Consumers across the Southeast could see a direct impact from the project. "Exporters will have lower costs of getting their goods to the world," says Billy Birdwell, a spokesman for the Army Corps of Engineers, which will deepen Savannah's port channel once it's approved. "Therefore, they are saving money, able to hire more people, able to do more work. Goods coming in will cost less to ship in, which will ultimately be passed on to consumers." Ambitions to expand __In his 2010 State of the Union address, President Obama announced the goal of doubling the nation's exports in the next five years. **The nation cannot**meet that goal – or **compete successfully in an increasingly global economy – without modern ports capable of handling the biggest ships**.__**__"Trade is going to grow significantly, and we need__** __to be able to have the **infrastructure to accommodate it**,__ " Nagle says. " __To be able to do that, we really need an infrastructure to enable us to trade our goods, our coal, our grain__ ." __Officials here say their port is a critical component in those efforts__. __Most of the Port of Savannah's business, 84%, is truck-size containers, which are used to ship products and goods around the world. It's the second-busiest container port in the nation for the export of U.S. goods, behind only Los Angeles; it's one of the only major ports in the nation that exports more goods than it imports__ – 52.2% to 47.8% last year. Officials here boast that 8.6% of all containerized goods that move in or out of the USA come through here; the port handles 12.4% of all containerized exports. Savannah's port is a vital cog in Georgia's economy, second only to Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport as an economic driver. It's responsible for 7% of the state's total employment, sustaining nearly 300,000 full- and part-time jobs, directly and indirectly. It also generates $61.7 billion in annual sales, worth $2.6 billion in state and local taxes. But **__the port's role in the__**__regional and **national economy is even more vital**__, says executive director Curtis Foltz. "Well __over 95% of the cargo that moves through this port doesn't come from Savannah and isn't destined for Savannah__ ," he says. " __Ports are conduits__ . We're shipping to and from central Florida, Texas, the lower Midwest, the Middle Tennessee Valley, North Carolina. Our port serves almost 45% of the U.S. population. __The economic development and prosperity doesn't stop at the state border."____Now, the state is rushing headlong to ensure it holds onto that development and prosperity, trying to complete the harbor deepening as close as possible to 2014.__ Marooned at low tide __Savannah's channel is just 42 feet deep, making it one of the shallowest major ports on the East Coast. Officials here say that some vessels already have to wait for high tide before they can traverse the channel – an expensive undertaking.__ " __We're already seeing exports being left on the docks__ because there is not sufficient water capacity to get those export containers onto the vessels," says port spokesman Robert Morris. "Close to 80% of the vessels are restrained by tide. Those vessels having to sit in a port or out at sea causes costs to rise." __The channel-deepening is especially important for exports,__ officials say, because goods exported through Savannah are typically much heavier: forest products, kaolin clay, poultry, grain and automobiles, for instance. Imported goods tend to be lighter items such as socks, clothing, transistor radios and iPods. __The Port of Savannah formally asked the federal government to consider studying a deepening of the harbor in 1996. Congress authorized a federally funded study in 1999, and began multiple rounds of environmental, cost-benefit and engineering studies, coupled with multiple rounds of public comment.__ A long process It typically takes about 10 years from the beginning of the study phase to a decision on such projects – essentially, approval from four federal agencies, the secretaries of Commerce, Interior and the Army, and the administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, to begin construction. Some frustrated officials here gripe that this is one of the longest-studied federal projects in history. __"It should have already been done," Foltz says. "Failing that, **it has to be done as quickly as possible, or commerce in the U.S. is going to suffer.** There's no doubt, it's got to get done." No one seems sure when that might happen, though. Funding for the $569 million **Savannah Harbor Expansion Project is required to be split, about one-third from the state, two-thirds from the federal government**. Georgia already has allocated__ most of __its share; the state also has completed upgrades to several roads that link the port and nearby interstate highways. But officials here were disappointed when President **Obama's proposed budget for fiscal year 2012 included just $600,000 for the project**__, for pre-construction engineering and design **__but no money for construction__**. The Corps of Engineers' Birdwell says __the project now faces another delay__. "We had anticipated that the decision would be made midyear 2012," he says. "However, we recently undertook additional analysis that may delay the final decision." A boon to consumers The Corps of Engineers projects that __the Savannah port expansion will generate an annual net benefit of $116 million to $125 million for the state__ and those who use the port, Birdwell says. One of the nation's largest importers, Home Depot, imports about 20% of its goods through Savannah, says Mark Holifield, supply chain senior vice president. " __The deepening of the ports creates efficiency and lowers the cost of doing business__ ," he says. "We don't just try to save money to raise our margins. We try to save money at the Home Depot so we can pass the savings on to our customers. We typically roll cost savings into prices." AJC International, a major exporter of beef, pork and poultry, exports 100 container loads of poultry through Savannah each week, says Eric Joiner, vice chairman and co-founder. He compares the harbor expansion project with a major airport lengthening a runway to handle new, larger passenger jets. __"It becomes an economic issue and a service issue," he says. "The steamship companies are going to go to those ports that can accommodate their ships. This will keep us very competitive."__
 * The plan will allow the US to double exports in the next 5 years**
 * USA Today 11** – news agency (Larry Copeland, “A goal to be port of call for all; U.S. sites digging in to accommodate big ships,” USA Today, October 3, 2011, lexis)//CB

Pre-Empts

 * Contention 5 is pre-empts**

The Post and Courier, 12/14 —The Post and Courier editorial staff (“Another dredging cheerleader?”, 14 Dec 2011, Proquest, [|http://search.proquest.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/docview/910864475)//chm]
 * Obama doesn’t push the plan—Lahood**

Georgia's deepening project for the Savannah River has a major out-of-state supporter with powerful political connections. No, not South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood. Secretary LaHood has promised a meeting of stakeholder s this month in Washington to work on ways to //expedite// the project, which recently received a permit from the S.C. Department of Health and Environmental Control board. In a meeting with Georgia officials last month, Mr. LaHood declared of the deepening project: " We'll figure out how to get the federal dollars to make this project happen. It has to happen ."

**The federal government has exclusive jurisdiction over the plan- It is in the Constitution** Sherman 2 – Director of Research and Information Services American Association of Port Authorities (Rexford, “Seaport Governance in the United States and Canada”, American Association of Port Authorities, __ [|http://www.aapa-ports.org/files/PDFs/governance_uscan.pdf)//MM] __

//The U.S. Constitution does grant the federal government exclusive jurisdiction over the navigable waters// of the United States, including its deepdraft channels and harbors--authority delegated primarily to the Coast Guard and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. But federal jurisdiction over harbors stops at the water's edge. Port authorities in the United States are instrumentalities of state or local government established by enactment or grants of authority by the state legislature. Neither Congress nor any federal agency has the power, or even the right, to appoint or dismiss port commissioners or staff members, or to amend, alter or repeal a port authority charter. Certain //port activities are//, of course //, subject to federal law and jurisdiction, particularly those pertaining to foreign and interstate commerce//


 * Maintenance dredging is distinct from dredging to increase channel depths**
 * Allen, 12** - Judson Falknor Professor of Law, University of Washington; Visiting Professor, Yale Law School and Distinguished Visiting Professor of Maritime Studies, U.S. Coast Guard Academy (Craig, “ Future Ports Scenarios for 21ST Century Port Strategic Planning”, JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION LAW, LOGISTICS & POLICY, [])//DH//

//75 “Maintenance” dredging refers to dredging operations to keep or restore the channel depth and width to its designed project dimensions. It is contrasted with dredging operations to increase the channel’s depths, widths or length beyond the original project dimensions .//

//**No prior questions – focus on critical theory makes it impossible for the world to act, turns their K**// //**Owen, 2002, Professor of Social & Political Philosophy** [David, Deputy Director, Centre for Philosophy and Value at Univ. of Southampton; PhD from Durham University. “Reorienting International Relations: On Pragmatism, Pluralism and Practical Reasoning”, Millennium, vol. 31 (No. 3) 2002, 653- 73. http://mil.sagepub.com/content/31/3/653Accessed 7/22/11 //]

Commenting on the ‘philosophical turn’ in IR, Wæver remarks that ‘[a] frenzy for words like “epistemology” and “ontology” often signals this philosophical turn’, although he goes on to comment that these terms are often used loosely.4 However, loosely deployed or not, it is __clear that debates concerning ontology and epistemology play__ a __central role in__ the __contemporary IR__ theory wars. In one respect, this is unsurprising since it is a characteristic feature of the social sciences that periods of disciplinary disorientation involve recourse to reflection on the philosophical commitments of different theoretical approaches, and there is no doubt that such reflection can play a valuable role in making explicit the commitments that characterise (and help individuate) diverse theoretical positions. Yet __, such a philosophical turn is not without__ its __dangers__ and I will briefly mention three before turning to consider a confusion that has, I will suggest, helped to promote the IR theory wars by motivating this philosophical turn. The __first__ danger __with____the philosophical turn is that it has an inbuilt tendency to prioritise issues of ontology and epistemology over explanatory and__ /or __interpretive power as if the latter__ two __were__ merely __a simple function of the former__. But while the explanatoryy and/or interpretive power of a theoretical account is not wholly independent of its ontological and/or epistemological commitments (otherwise criticism of these features would not be a criticism that had any value), it is by no means clear that it is, in contrast, wholly dependent on these philosophical commitments. __Thus,__ for example, one need not be sympathetic to rational choice theory to recognise that it can provide powerful accounts of certain kinds of problems, such as the tragedy of the commons in which dilemmas of collective action are foregrounded. It may, of course, be the case that the advocates of rational choice theory cannot give a good account of why this type of theory is powerful in accounting for this class of problems (i.e., how it is that the relevant actors come to exhibit features in these circumstances that approximate the assumptions of rational choice theory) and, if this is the case, it is a philosophical weakness—but this does not undermine the point that, for a certain class of problems, rational choice theory may provide the best account available to us. In other words, while the __critical judgement of theoretical accounts__ in terms of their ontological and/or epistemological sophistication is one kind of critical judgement, it __is not the__ only or even necessarily __the most important kind.__ The __second danger__ run by the philosophical turn __is that because prioritisation of ontology and epistemology promotes theory-construction from philosophical first principles, it cultivates a theory__ -driven rather than problem-driven __approach__ to IR. Paraphrasing Ian Shapiro, the point can be put like this: __since it is the case that there is always a plurality of possible true descriptions of a given action__, event or phenomenon, the __challenge is to decide which is the most apt__ in terms of getting a perspicuous grip on the action, event or phenomenon in question given the purposes of the inquiry; __yet__ , from this standpoint, ‘ __theory-driven work__ is part of a reductionist program’ in that it ‘ __dictates always opting for__ the description that calls for the explanation that flows from the __preferred model__ or theory’.5 The justification offered for this strategy rests on the mistaken belief that it is necessary for social science because general explanations are required to characterise the classes of phenomena studied in similar terms. However, as Shapiro points out, this is to misunderstand the enterprise of science since ‘whether there are general explanations for classes of phenomena is a question for social-scientific inquiry, not to be prejudged before conducting that inquiry’.6 Moreover, this strategy easily slips into the promotion of the pursuit of generality over that of empirical validity. The __third danger is that the preceding two combine to encourage__ the __formation of a particular image of disciplinary debate__ in IR—what might be called (only slightly tongue in cheek) ‘the Highlander view’—namely, __an image of warring theoretical approaches with each,__ despite occasional temporary tactical alliances, __dedicated to the strategic achievement of sovereignty over__ the __disciplinary field__. __It encourages this view because the turn to, and prioritisation of, ontology and epistemology stimulates the idea that there can only be one theoretical approach which gets things right__, namely, the theoretical approach that gets its ontology and epistemology right __. This__ image __feeds back into IR exacerbating the first and second dangers, and so a potentially vicious circle arises.__


 * No impact to container shortages – don’t affect trade and exports**
 * Tarnef, 10 ** – Chubb Marine Underwriters, AVP at Chubb Insurance (Barry, “Container Shortage”, July 2010, [] , page 1-2) // EK

While the reports on this topic have been consistent over the past days, some freight forwarders have asserted that while cargo volumes have increased they are in line with seasonal expectations and space can still be found on vessels. Furthermore, the container shortage has yet to have an impact. Shippers could stay in close contact with their transportation providers and intermediaries and devise contingency plans that might include looking at different ports if bottlenecks or equipment issues arise and modal options such as ocean-air and air. __ Whether or not the ocean container shortage is fact or fiction, shippers should continue carefully inspecting the equipment for suitability prior to loading their cargo into the boxes __. A few minutes can make the difference between loss-free delivery and a cargo claim. A quick walk around the container and stepping inside (being sure to close the doors to detect any light entering) allow you to identify defects and damages that need repair or require the container to be replaced.

Dawers 7/19 - JULY 19, 2012 1:44 AM by [|BILL DAWERS] -Savannah Morning News ( [] ) MK
 * Executive order doesn’t guarantee faster approval or funding**

We were already expecting the final approval this fall of the dredging of the Savannah Harbor to 47 feet. So __it is unclear at this point what practical effect the President’s executive order has__. It certainly indicates a fresh seriousness from Washington, but __the action does not seem to guarantee federal funding or a faster approval process__ than had been previously promised.

Among the provisions in the bill of most interest to ports and the freight community is establishment __of a National Freight Policy that includes development of a National Freight Strategic Plan. The National Freight Strategic Plan, along with state freight plans and advisory committees, will enable freight projects that improve cargo movement, reduce congestion, increase productivity and improve the safety, security and resilience of freight transportation. Among the types of projects being addressed are freight intermodal connectors, railway/highway grade separations and geometric improvements to interchanges and ramps – all of which are often sought by the seaport industry. Also, by continuing the Projects of National and Regional Significance (PNRS) program, the bill authorizes funds for large, multimodal projects that bolster freight mobility in locations that generate national or regional economic benefits. AAPA has supported this program since its inception.__
 * Status quo solve congestion and bottlenecks**
 * Dredging Today 7-2-12** (America’s Seaports Recognized in MAP-21 Surface Transportation Bill Reauthorization [])MSD

As a result, the most important political questions are simply not asked. __It is assumed that U.S. military intervention is an act of "aggression," but no consideration is given to the aggression to which intervention is a response__. The status quo ante in Afghanistan is not, as peace activists would have it, peace, but rather terrorist violence abetted by a regime--the Taliban--that rose to power through brutality and repression. This requires us to ask a question that most "peace" activists would prefer not to ask: What should be done to respond to the violence of a Saddam Hussein, or a Milosevic, or a Taliban regime? What means are likely to stop violence and bring criminals to justice? __Calls for diplomacy__ and international law are well intended and important; they implicate a decent and civilized ethic of global order. But they __are__ also __vague and empty__, because they are not accompanied by any account of how diplomacy or international law can work effectively to address the problem at hand. The campus left offers no such account. To do so would require it to contemplate tragic choices in which moral goodness is of limited utility. Here what matters is not purity of intention but the intelligent exercise of power. Power is not a dirty word or an unfortunate feature of the world. It is the core of politics. Power is the ability to effect outcomes in the world. Politics, in large part, involves contests over the distribution and use of power. __To accomplish anything__ __in the political world, one must attend to the means that are necessary to bring it about__. And to develop such means is to develop, and to exercise, power. To say this is not to say that power is beyond morality. It is to say that power is not reducible to morality. As writers such as Niccolo Machiavelli, Max Weber, Reinhold Niebuhr, and Hannah Arendt have taught, __an unyielding concern with moral goodness undercuts political responsibility____.__ The concern may be morally laudable, reflecting a kind of personal integrity, but it suffers from three fatal flaws: (1) __It fails to see that the purity of one's intention does not ensure the achievement of what one intends____.__ Abjuring violence or refusing to make common cause with morally compromised parties may seem like the right thing; but if such tactics entail impotence, then it is hard to view them as serving any moral good beyond the clean conscience of their supporters; (2) it fails to see that __in a world of real violence and injustice, moral purity is not simply a form of powerlessness; it is often a form of complicity in injustice__. This is why, from the standpoint of politics--as opposed to religion-- __pacifism is always a potentially immoral stand.__ In categorically repudiating violence__,__ __it refuses in principle to oppose certain violent injustices with any effect__; and (3) __it fails to see that politics is as much about unintended consequences as it is about intentions____; it is the effects of action, rather than the motives of action, that is most significant__. Just as the alignment with "good" may engender impotence, it is often the pursuit of "good" that generates evil. This is the lesson of communism in the twentieth century: __it is not enough that one's goals be sincere or idealistic; it is equally important, always, to ask about the effects of pursuing these goals and to judge these effects in pragmatic and historically contextualized ways. Moral absolutism inhibits this judgment. It alienates those who are not true believers. It promotes arrogance. And it undermines political effectiveness.__
 * Do not evaluate their ethics without first assessing the consequences of its actual implementation. Viewing ethics in isolation is irresponsible & complicit with the evil they criticize.**
 * Issac****2002** .,( Jeffery C. Professor of political science at Indiana-Bloomington & Director of the Center for the Study of Democracy and Public Life. PhD Yale University. From “Ends, Means, and Politics.” Dissent Magazine. Volume 49. Issue # 2. Available online @ subscribing institutions using Proquest. Herm


 * New Orleans still lacks mass transit evacuation plans. The carless will be trapped again.**
 * Renne et al., 08** – Renne is a PhD from the University of New Orleans, Sanchez is a PhD from the University of Utah, and Litman is a director at the Victoria Transport Policy Institute (John Renne, Thomas Sanchez, and Todd Litman, “National Study on Carless and Special Needs Evacuation Planning: A Literature Review”, October 2008, accessed 7/3/12)//BZ

__The objective of this study is to research how__ __state departments of transportation__ __(state DOTs),__ __metropolitan planning organizations__ (MPOs), __transit agencies, and local governments are considering, in the context of their emergency preparedness planning, the unique needs of minority, low-income, elderly, disabled, and limited English proficient__ (LEP) __persons, especially for households without vehicles__ (referred to as “carless” in this report). The evacuations of New Orleans and Houston in fall 2005 due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita were two of the largest evacuations in U.S. history. One of **__the main shortcomings was the lack of planning to evacuate carless residents, particularly minority, low-income, elderly, disabled, and LEP persons__**__.__ In a report to Congress, the U.S. Department of Transportation and U.S. Department of Homeland Security revealed that [ __m]ethods for communicating evacuation options by modes other than personal vehicles are not well developed in most____cases. A number of jurisdictions indicate locations where public transportation may be obtained, but many have no specific services identified to assist persons in getting to those designated locations__. This situation is a particular problem for people with various disabilities (U.S. Department of Transportation in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security 2006, p. ES - 5) __New Orleans is not____unique__. In fact, according to the 2000 U.S. Census, seven cities had carless populations higher than the 27 percent in New Orleans, including New York (56 percent), Washington, D.C. (37 percent), Baltimore (36 percent), Philadelphia (36 percent), Boston (35 percent), Chicago (29 percent), and San Francisco (29 percent). Nationally, approximately ten percent of the population is disabled and many of these individuals cannot drive, even if a car exists within their household. __As the population ages, more and more people will become mobility-restricted.__ Even the elderly who have cars may be reluctant to drive them during a mandated long-distance evacuation. **__These groups face disproportionate risk and suffered loss of life in the flood of New Orleans__**__.__ For example, __71% of those who died in Katrina in New Orleans were over the age of 60, and 47% over the age of 75__ (AARP 2006a and 2006b). Perhaps, __more alarming than the scope of emergency transport for low-mobility populations is the persistence of the problem__. __The extra risks that carless households face during an evacuation are well-recognized and have been documented in numerous reports and papers__ (Bourne, 2004; Fischett 2001). __Despite this attention, relatively little has been done to improve the situation and only recently has a concerted effort been made to address this problem__. Although some plans call for the use of local resources for the movement of indigent and elderly populations during times of emergency, the strategies remain questionable. **__Based on the current level of preparedness, it is quite likely that the tragedies seen in New Orleans during and after Hurricane Katrina are bound to be repeated__** unless best practices can be understood and adopted widely (Jenkins, Laska and Williamson 2007).

Plan

 * The plan: The United States federal government should substantially increase its investment in evacuation transportation infrastructure in New Orleans.**

The Advantage

 * The intersection of race and poverty and car-lessness made the aftermath of Katrina into an overwhelming display of institutional racism. Mass transportation is critical for evacuation.**
 * Wailoo et al. 10** (Keith Wailoo- B.A, 1984, Yale University; M.A., 1989, and Ph.D. (History and Sociology of Science), 1992, University of Pennsylvania; joint appointment: Associate Professor of History, Karen M. O’Neill- Karen M. O’Neill studies how land and water policies change the standing of program beneficiaries and experts and change government's claims to authority and power., Jeffrey Dowd- graduate student, Roland Anglin- Associate Research Professor; Director, Joseph C. Cornwall Center for Metropolitan Studies School of Public Affairs and Administration (SPAA) Rutgers University-Newark ; Katrina’s Imprint: Race and Vulnerability in America; 11/2010; pages 23-27)

A landmark decision most known today for its application beyond transportation, Plessy v. Ferguson provided the legal basis for basis for separate schools, restaurants, theaters, hospitals, cemeteries, and public facilities of all kinds from 1896 through 1954, when the legal doctrine of separate but equal was overturned by the Supreme Court’s Brown v. Board of Education decision. However, __in wake of recent events in New Orleans, the issues involved in Plessy’s support of segregated transportation retain their relevance and are worth revisiting__. For, despite the broad applications that would shape its subsequent history, __Plessy ultimately turned on the issue of public access to transportation, which Justice John Marshall Harlan,__ the sole dissenter on the Plessy verdict, __discussed with great eloquence. Railroads__, he noted, __were public “highways.”__ Although privately owned, __they served the public and exercised public functions, as demonstrated by legislatures’ use of the public-spirited right of eminent domain to seize land for the construction of railroad tracks.__ “The right to eminent domain nowhere justifies taking property for private use,” he emphasized. Accordingly, Harlan reasoned, __all citizens should have equal rights to the use of the railroads as a matter of civil rights. “Personal Liberty,”__ he maintained, citing Black’s Constitutional Law, __“consists of the power of locomotion, or changing situation, or removing one’s person to whatsoever places one’s inclination may direct.” **Harlan’s words are newly resonant in the aftermath of**__ Hurricane **__Katrina__**__, where we saw a tremendous failure in the power of personal locomotion that was largely defined by race. Katrina’s illustration of persistent and pervasive racial inequalities regarding transportation in the United States suggests how little this nation has really traveled since Plessy__. Described by some as a wake-up call about racial inequality in America, __Katrina left behind__ – in the Superdome, stranded on the rooftops of their homes, and paddling through the waters that flooded New Orleans – __a group of residents who were overwhelmingly black__. Also among those unable to evacuate were prisoners, the elderly and disabled people, both black and white – many of whom did not survive. Indeed, the old and the sick number prominently among Katrina’s fatalities – for obvious reasons. What unifies this group is their social status as immobile people, a status overcome during emergencies only if adequate money and planning are in place. But what explains that race, rather than age and physical fragility, was the common factor that united the vast majority of those who remained in the city after Katrina struck? __Of the 270,000 Katrina survivors stuck in New Orleans, 93 percent were black.__ And those left behind shared characteristics that are often unevenly distributed by race. __They were predominantly poor and unskilled: 77 percent had a high school education or less, 68 percent had neither money in the bank nor a useable credit card, and 57 percent had total household incomes of less than $20,000 per year__. Poverty is one of the major reasons why many of the evacuees did not manage to leave before the storm. They lacked the resources to either travel or support themselves once they had relocated. Moreover __, the evacuees also tended to share one characteristic closely related to both their racial and economic demographics: 55 percent had no car or other way to evacuate__. In this respect, Hurricane Katrina’s victims were not unique to New Orleans. __Although no longer legally prohibited from traveling freely on the nation’s “public highways,” like their segregation era counterparts, many contemporary African Americans both in New Orleans and elsewhere experience a similar restriction on their mobility, largely as a consequence of low levels of car ownership and a deficient public transportation system__. Access to Transportation Across the nation, __African Americans are three times more likely to lack a car then whites. Latinos come in second when it comes to carlessness – they are two and half times more likely to own no vehicle. The racial shape of this disparity becomes clear when one looks at the statistics: only 7 percent of white families in the United States own no vehicle, as compared with 21 percent of black households, 17 percent of Latino households, 15 percent of Native American households, and 13 percent of Asian Americans households__ – and disparities with whites are even greater in urban areas. Across the nation, __people of color are also less able to rely on the cars they do own for longer trips, as might be required during emergencies like evacuation. Their cars are usually significantly older and cheaper than those owned by whites__. Stereotypes about African Americans favoring Cadillacs not withstanding, cars owned by blacks and Latinos have median values in the $5,000 range, while the value of cars owned by white family households averages well over $12,000. Meanwhile, the many blacks and Latinos who own no car are still worse off, as automobile owners typically have better access to employment, healthcare, affordable housing, and other necessities. __More to the point, as Katrina demonstrated, in a disaster, access to a car can be a matter of life or death.__**__This is especially true in urban areas such as New Orleans__**__, where people of color constitute a larger portion of the population than they do in the country as a whole.__ According to the 2000 U.S. Census, people of color make up 30 percent of the nation’s population, but 73 percent of the population in New Orleans. __In the counties affected by Hurricane Rita, Katrina, and Wilma in 2005, blacks and Latinos made up 24 percent and 14 percent of the carless households, respectively, whereas only 7 percent of white households lacked a car.__ These statistics acquire real urgency in the case of disasters such as the hurricanes of 2005. Unlike the citizens of nations such as Germany, Japan, Holland, and Britain, all of which have fairly comprehensive public transportation systems in place, Americans who have no access to cars are carless in a society where an automobile is often crucial to both daily life and emergency transportation. __The stranding of African Americans in New Orleans__, then, __can be read through the intersection of economics and racial discrimination.__ Although urban dwellers in metropolitan areas with effective public transportation, like New York city, sometimes choose not to own automobiles as a matter of convenience, not owning a car is inconvenient in many other American cities. The infrastructure of the highway informs the preparation of America as a nation obsessed with cars and ownership. As a result, in the Big Easy, as in most of the nation’s urban areas, “ __public transit is considered a mode of last resort or a novelty for tourists and special events. Most middle-class residents seldom use public transit and so have little reason to support it. As a result, service quality is minimal, and poorly integrated into the overall transport system.” African Americans__, however, __depend on public transportation despite its many limitation__. For low-income African Americans in New Orleans and elsewhere, __the economic challenges posed by car ownership and American car culture are only compounded by the expensive and exclusionary forms of discrimination that attend virtually every economic transaction required to buy and maintain an automobile. African Americans routinely pay more for cars of similar value than whites.__ Though no research group has yet produced a national study of this, a 1996 class action suit against an Atlanta-area car dealership revealed that the dealership routinely made between two and seven times as much profit on cars sold to African Americans as compared with vehicles sold to whites. Moreover, broader evidence from a study performed by economists Ian Ayres and Peter Siegelman suggests that such practices are not unusual. Audits of the car prices offered to more than three hundred pairs of trained testers dispatched to negotiate with Chicago-area car dealerships produced final price offers on which black males were asked to pay $1,100 more than white males for identical vehicles, while the prices offered to black and whte women exceeded those offered to white men by $410 and $92, respectively. __Once they do buy a car, blacks and Latinos alike are often required to pay a significantly higher annual percentage rate than whites on car loans__ – on average, 7.5 percent as compared with 6 percent, which accounts to a difference of $900 over the life of a six-year loan on a $20,000 car. __Car insurance differentials__, while they vary from state to state, __are even more striking__. In California, a recent proposal to eliminate zip code insurance premium pricing by the California Insurance Commissions (the outcome of which has yet to be resolved) illuminates the problem. The Consumers Union found that California’s largest insurance companies typically charge a female driver with a perfect driving record and twenty-two years driving experience an average of 12.9 percent, or $152, more if she lives in a predominantly Latino zip code versus a non-Hispanic white area. In some cases, differentials were as high as 66 percent – the surcharge imposed on the predominantly African American residents of Baldwin Hills, California. __Another less well documented, but perhaps more formidable barrier to car ownership among black urbanites is the lack of affordable parking in many of their neighborhoods__. Suburban development around cities such as New Orleans was designed with car ownership (as well as white flight) in mind, but the older housing stock and apartment buildings that dominate many urban areas do not include garages or space for parking. Moreover, __as tourism and business travel increasingly displace other forms of commerce in many historic cities, even less parking is available to residents – making car ownership ever more expensve and difficult in many inner-city neighborhoods.__


 * No disaster is natural – who lives and who dies is part of a social calculus based on how much a society decides to care for the under privileged. FEMA didn’t just make mistakes for a few months—the death and suffering stemming from Katrina were decades in the making.**
 * Smith 06 –** Distinguished Professor of Anthropology and Geography at the CUNY Graduate Center where he also directs the Center for Place, Culture and Politics (Neil, “There’s No Such Thing as a Natural Disaster” March 2006, http://www.ladeltacorps.org/uploads/4/3/8/1/4381788/cg-ar-packet.pdf )//ALo

__It is generally accepted among environmental geographers that there is no such thing as a natural disaster. In every phase and aspect of a disaster – causes, vulnerability, preparedness, results and response, and reconstruction – **the contours of disaster and the difference between who lives and who dies is to a greater or lesser extent a social calculus**. Hurricane Katrina provides the most startling confirmation of that axiom.__ This is not simply an academic point but a practical one, and __it has everything to do with how societies prepare for and absorb natural events and how they can or should reconstruct afterward. It is difficult,__ so soon on the heels of such an unnecessarily deadly disaster, __to be discompassionate, but it is important in the heat of the moment to put social science to work as a counterweight to official attempts to relegate Katrina to the historical dustbin of inevitable “natural” disasters.__ First, causes. The __denial of the naturalness of disasters is in no way a denial of natural process.__ Earthquakes, tsunamis, blizzards, droughts and hurricanes are certainly events of nature that require a knowledge of geophysics, physical geography or climatology to comprehend. __Whether a natural event is a disaster or not depends ultimately,__ however, __on its location. A large earthquake in the Hindu Kush may spawn no disaster whatsoever while the same intensity event in California could be a catastrophe.__ But even among climatic events, natural causes are not entirely divorced from the social. The world has recently experienced dramatic warming, which scientists increasingly attribute to airborne emissions of carbon, and around the world Katrina is widely seen as evidence of socially induced climatic change. Much as a single hurricane such as Katrina, even when followed by an almost equally intense Hurricane Rita, or even when embedded in a record 2005 season of Atlantic hurricanes, is not in itself conclusive evidence of humanly induced global warming. Yet it would be irresponsible to ignore such signals. The Bush administration has done just that, and it is happy to attribute the dismal record of death and destruction on the Gulf Coast – perhaps 1200 lives by the latest counts – to an act of nature. It has proven itself not just oblivious but ideologically opposed to mounting scientific evidence of global warming and the fact that rising sea-levels make cities such as New Orleans, Venice, or Dacca immediately vulnerable to future calamity. Whatever the political tampering with science, __the supposed “naturalness” of disasters here becomes an ideological camouflage for the social (and therefore preventable) dimensions of such disasters, covering for quite specific social interests.__ __Vulnerability__, in turn, __is____highly differentiated; some people are much more vulnerable than others.__ Put bluntly, in many climates __rich people tend to take the higher land leaving to the poor and working class land more vulnerable to flooding and environmental pestilence. This is a trend not an iron clad generalization__ : oceanfront property marks a major exception in many places, and Bolivia’s La Paz, where the wealthy live in the cooler valley below 13,000 feet, is another. __In New Orleans,__ however, __topographic gradients doubled as class and race gradients, and as the Katrina evacuation so tragically demonstrated, the better off had cars to get out, credit cards and bank accounts for emergency hotels and supplies, their immediate families likely had resources to support their evacuation, and the wealthier also had the insurance policies for rebuilding.__ Not just the market but __successive administrations from the federal to the urban scale, made the poorest population in New Orleans most vulnerable. Since 2001, knowing that a catastrophic hurricane was likely and would in all probability devastate New Orleans, the Bush administration nonetheless opened hundreds of square miles of wetland to development on the grounds that the market knows best, and in the process eroded New Orleans’ natural protection; and they cut the New Orleans Corps of Engineers budget by 80%, thus preventing pumping and levee improvements.__ At the same time, __they syphoned resources toward tax cuts for the wealthy and a failed war in Iraq__ (Blumenthal 2005). __Given the stunned amazement with which people around the world greeted images of a stranded African American populace in the deadly sewage pond of post-Katrina New Orleans, it is difficult not to agree with__ Illinois senator Barack __Obama: “the people of New Orleans weren’t just abandoned during the hurricane,” but were “abandoned long ago”__ (DailyKos 2005). __After causes and vulnerability comes preparedness. The incompetence of preparations for Katrina, especially at the federal level, is well known. As soon as the hurricane hit Florida, almost three days before New Orleans, it was evident that this storm was far more dangerous than its wind speeds and intensity suggested. Meteorologists knew it would hit a multi-state region but the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), overseen by a political appointee with no relevant experience and recently subordinated to the Homeland Security Administration, assumed business as usual__. They sent only a quarter of available search and rescue teams to the region and no personnel to New Orleans until after the storm had passed (Lipton et. al. 2005). __Yet more than a day before it hit, Katrina was described by the National Weather Service as a “hurricane with unprecedented strength” likely to make the targeted area “uninhabitable for weeks, perhaps longer”__ (NYT 2005). __Days afterward, as the President hopped from photo-op to photo-op the White House, not given to listening to its scientists, seemed still not to understand the prescience of that warning or the dimensions of the disaster.__ The results of Hurricane Katrina and responses to it are as of this writing still fresh in our memory but it is important to record some of the details so that the rawness of what transpired not be rubbed smooth by historical rewrite. __The results can be assessed in thousands of lives unnecessarily lost, billions of dollars of property destroyed, local economies devastated and so forth, but that is only half the story. The images ricocheting around the world of a crippled United States, unconcerned or unable to protect its own population, receiving offers of aid from more than 100 countries, only reaffirmed for many the sense, already crystalizing from the debacle in Iraq, of a failing superpower.__ The level of survivors’ amply televised anger, bodies floating in the background, shocked the world. Reporters were not “embedded” this time, and so the images were real, uncensored, and raw. As the true horror unfolded, the media were working without a script, and it took almost a week before pre-existing absorptive news narratives regained control. But by then it was too late. __Distraught refugees, 1 mostly African American, concluded that they were being left in the New Orleans Superdome and Convention Center to die__ ; they pleaded for help, any help, as they angrily demanded to know why, if reporters could get in and out, they could not. __When the National Guard did arrive, it was quickly apparent that they were working under orders to control the city militarily and protect property rather than to bring aid to the desperate. Angry citizens, who waded through the fetid city looking for promised buses that never came, were prevented, at gunpoint, from getting out.__ “We are not turning the West Bank [a New Orleans suburb] into another Superdome,” argued one suburban sheriff. Groups of refugees who tried to organize water, food and shelter collectively were also broken up at gunpoint by the national guard. Numerous victims reported being besieged and the National Guard was under orders not to distribute their own water (Bradshaw and Slonsky, 2005; Whitney 2005). A __s late as four days after the hurricane hit New Orleans, with government aid still largely absent, President Bush advised refugees that they ought to rely on private charities such as the Salvation Army__ (Breed 2005). When the first federal aid did come, stunned recipients opening boxes asked why they were being sent anthrax vaccine. “These are the boxes Homeland Security told us to send,” came the reply. __Unfortunately, shocking as it was, the tragedy of New Orleans is neither unique nor even especially unexpected, except perhaps in its scale. The race and class dimensions of who escaped and who was victimized by this decidedly unnatural disaster not only could have been predicted, and was, but it follows a long history of like experiences.____In 1976, a devastating earthquake eventually killed 23,000 people in Guatemala and made 1.5 million people homeless. I say “eventually,” because the vast majority of deaths were not the direct result of the physical event itself but played out in the days and weeks that followed. Massive international relief flooded into Guatemala but it was not funneled to the most affected and neediest peasants, who eventually came to call the disaster a “classquake” (O’Keefe et. al. 1976). In communities surrounding the Indian Ocean, ravaged by the tsunami of December 2004, the class and ethnic fissures of the old societies are re-etched deeper and wider by the patterns of response and reconstruction. There, “reconstruction” forcibly prevents local fishermen from re-establishing their livelihoods, planning instead to secure the oceanfront for wealthy tourists. Locals increasingly call the reconstruction effort the “second tsunami.” In New Orleans there are already murmurings of Katrina as “Hurricane Bush.” It is not only in the so-called Third World, we can now see, that one’s chances of surviving a disaster are more than anything dependent on one’s race, ethnicity and social class.__


 * Transportation policy is the root of transportation inequality – this lies at the heart of racial, environmental inequality, and classism.**
 * Pastor et al. 06** [Manuel Pastor is codirector of the Center for Justice, Tolerance, and Community at the University of California, Santa Cruz. Robert D. Bullard is Ware Professor of Sociology and director of the Environmental Justice Resource Center at Clark Atlanta University. James K. Boyce is professor of economics at the Political Economy Research Institute of the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. Alice Fothergill is assistant professor of sociology at the University of Vermont. Rachel Morello-Frosch is Carney Assistant Professor in the School of Medicine at Brown University. Beverly Wright is professor of sociology and director of the Deep South Center for Environmental Justice at Dillard University.] “Environment, Disaster and Race After Katrina” http://urbanhabitat.org/files/Pastor.Bullard.etc.Env.Katrina.pdf

__How consequential is racial inequality in environmental conditions?__ A Southern California study estimating __lifetime cancer risk from air toxins shows,__ for example, __that risk declines as income rises, but is still around 50 percent higher at all income levels for African Americans, Latinos and Asians. And lead poisoning,__ commonly triggered by conditions in older housing, is __five times more common among Black children than white children.__ Disaster Vulnerability and Environmental Justice __The social dynamics that underlie the disproportionate environmental hazards faced by low-income communities and minorities also play out in the arena of disaster prevention, mitigation, and recovery__. In a sense, __environmental justice is about slow-motion disasters—and disasters reveal environmental injustice in a fast-forward mode. Both revolve around the axes of__ disparities of __wealth and power__. Lack of wealth heightens the risks that individuals and communities face for three reasons. First, __it translates into a lack of purchasing power to secure private alternatives to public provision of a clean and safe environment for all__. Second, __it translates into less ability to withstand shocks__ (such as health bills and property damage) __that wealth would cushion.__ Third, __it translates through the “shadow prices” of cost-benefit analysis into public policies that place a lower priority on protecting “less valuable” people and their assets.__ In the aftermath of Katrina, there is an added risk that transfers could turn New Orleans into a little more than a theme park for affluent tourists. __In the vicious circle of disaster vulnerability, those with less wealth face greater risks, and when disaster strikes, their wealth is further sapped.__ But __risk is not just about money: even middleclass African Americans, Latinos, and Asians face elevated environmental risks. This reflects systematic differences in power and the legacy of racial discrimination__. Power also shows up in private decisions by firms choosing where to site hazards and how much to invest in environmental protection: their choices are constrained not only by government regulations, but also by informal governance exercised by mobilized communities, civil society, and the press (see Pargal et al. 1997; Boyce 2004). In both public and private arenas, then, __power disparities drive outcome disparities—and the resulting patterns reflect race and ethnicity as well as wealth__. 1 Why? Land, Markets, and Power __The power explanation suggests that low-income people and communities of color are systematically disadvantaged in the political decision-making process__. This argument can incorporate the other explanations: what seems to be rational land use, after all, may be predetermined by political processes that designate disenfranchised communities as sacrifice zones (see Pulido 2000; Boone and Modarres 1999; Wright 2005). Indeed, land use decisions often build on accumulated disadvantage. In the largely Latino community of Kettleman City in California’s Central Valley, for example, __an effort to place a toxic waste incinerator__ in a landfill already proximate to the city was viewed as building on existing dis-amenities but __added insult to injury for an already overburdened community__ (Cole and Foster 2001). Likewise, income is a marker of political power as well as of market strength. The interplay of land use, income, and power means that certain variables used in statistical analyses—such as zoning and household wealth— carry multiple explanations. To demonstrate convincingly that power is behind siting decisions requires the inclusion of some variables that are directly and irrefutably connected to power differentials. __The most important of these variables is race__. 2 __Disparate patterns by race__, particularly when one has controlled for income and other variables involved in the land-use and market-dynamics explanations, __most clearly point to the role of unequal influence and racial discrimination. Racially disparate outcomes are also important in their own right. They can result from processes that are not so much a direct exercise of power as essentially embedded in the nature of our urban form, including housing segregation and real estate steering, informal methods that exclude communities from decision-making processes__ (including less provision of information regarding health risks), __the past placement of hazards__ (which justifies new hazards as rational land use), __and other forms of less direct “institutionalized” or “structural” racism__ (see Feagin and Feagin 1986; Institute on Race and Poverty 2002). And __it is precisely racialized risk that has galvanized a movement for environmental equity rooted in civil rights law and activism**. Race and racism therefore are at the heart of the evidentiary debate**__. It is Not Just Hazards **__Environmental and transportation justice are at the heart of emergency preparedness and emergency response__**__. The former provides a guidepost to who is most likely to be vulnerable to the disaster itself,__ and the latter provides information about who will need the most help when disaster strikes. __It is to the intersection of disaster vulnerability with race, income, and other social characteristics that we now turn.__


 * It’s not just about New Orleans—Katrina highlighted the pervasive suffering caused by racialized poverty everywhere.**
 * Luft 2009 –** Associate Professor, Ph.D. University of California, Santa Barbara (Rachel, “Beyond Disaster Exceptionalism: Social Movement Developments in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina” //American Quarterly//, Volume 61, Number 3, September 2009, http://www.bupedu.com/lms/admin/uploded_article/eA.477.pdf )//ALo

__Traditionally, scholars have distinguished disasters from other kinds of harmful events by characterizing them as “sudden” or “explosive,” discrete or “unique,” and “acute.” 17 These designations have sought to render exceptional both the disasters themselves and the experience of the people who encounter them.__ In the 1980s, a new, __constructionist school of disaster scholarship began to emphasize the preexisting social conditions that contribute to and exacerbate disaster, pointing to the social origins of disaster and calling into question the notion of their suddenness and discreteness. It emphasized the ongoing conditions of “social vulnerability”—poverty, racism, sexism—that construct and interact with disaster. 18 Understanding these enduring social problems as disastrous in their own right has further challenged the narrow assessment of natural disasters and other emergencies as exceptionally acute.__ From this perspective, __“the line separating the chronic from the acute becomes even more blurred.” 19 Social vulnerability scholarship has helped to identify how **“the challenges of life are a ‘permanent disaster’” for people already oppressed** by class, race, gender, sexuality, disability, age, and other forces of systemic oppression. 20 It moves to **displace “natural” disasters as the greatest risk to human well-being** and to **replace them with an understanding of the social and ongoing conditions that produce daily risk, suffering, and trauma.** It also helps to explain the behavior of people who already experience daily hazards because they live at the intersection of poverty, racism, and/or sexism when they face what appears to be a discrete disaster.__ 21 __Within weeks of Hurricane Katrina’s landfall, social scientists were publishing analyses of the disaster from social constructionist and social vulnerability perspectives.__ 22 They noted that __years of human and infrastructural neglect— the racialized poverty that had 27 percent of New Orleans’s inhabitants living below the poverty line; the poorly designed and maintained levees; and the federal government’s inadequately managed and funded emergency management operations agency, to cite only the most obvious examples—had produced the devastating outcomes of the storm.__ At the same time, grassroots movement leaders were also pointing to the social construction of the disaster. __In addition to identifying the particular race, class, and gender determinants of Katrina’s outcomes, they also contextualized them in the long history of U.S. imperialism, the “national oppression” of Blacks, and the disenfranchisement of women and children.__ 23 Instead of emphasizing the exceptional elements of Hurricane Katrina, __these grassroots leaders saw in the policy decisions that helped produce its outcomes, the standard operating procedure of the U.S. government; they likened the displacement, impoverishment, and service deprivation of hurricane survivors to the **chronic conditions of racialized poverty.**__ __Additionally they predicted that the **reconstruction would turn** the Gulf Coast, and in particular **New Orleans, into a laboratory for** privatization as part of what Naomi Klein calls **“disaster capitalism.”**__ 24 __They further anticipated that the reconstruction of New Orleans would become a bellwether for incursions into domestic infrastructure in other parts of the country, calling it the canary in the mines of U.S. homeland policy__. As movement lawyer Bill Quigley put it more recently, responding to the federal bailout of financial institutions in late 2008, “ __Welcome to Katrina world.”__ 25 Social constructionist and social vulnerability perspectives were apparent at the grassroots in the narrative devices first-generation movement organizers used to link pre- and postdisaster New Orleans to sites around the country. As they spoke to __a steady stream of volunteers, movement leaders urged visitors to “make the connections” between their own communities and New Orleans. They insisted that **“the storm began a long time before Katrina.”** When they asked visitors if they were “preparing for the Katrina in your own backyard,” they were not referring to the threat of natural disaster elsewhere (though they reminded them of such a threat when nonlocals wondered whether New Orleans should be rebuilt), **but rather to every community’s structures of disenfranchisement**.__ These refrains were picked up by solidarity activists nationwide, who helped to make the linkages. In an early article, San Francisco–based Catalyst Project organizer Molly McClure tied disaster exceptionalism to a charitable—as opposed to political and systemic—response to the storm: “With charity, I don’t have to connect the dots between sudden catastrophes like Katrina, and the perhaps slower but very similar economic devastation happening in poor communities and communities of color, every day, right here, in my city.” 26 __First-generation Katrina movement groups de-exceptionalized disaster in order to reframe the recovery and reconstruction process in the broader context of ongoing U.S. social problems. Second-generation groups did so in order to move beyond Katrina to the ongoing social problems themselves.__ Although Safe Streets began with Katrina triage, for example, it proceeded to tackle the New Orleans criminal justice system. __“The criminal justice and public safety system in New Orleans was in crisis long before Katrina devastated our city,”__ explained an SSSC brochure in 2007. __From the tragic waters of Katrina, we have been given an opportunity for a fresh start.__


 * The horrors of Katrina justify the statement: ‘Never again’. The victims of Katrina were a result of the neoliberal regime that looked on as thousands perished, reflective of a fascist machine where democracy is lost.**
 * Giroux, 06** – Professor of English and Cultural Studies at McMaster University, previous professors at BU, Miami U, and Penn State (Henry, “Reading Hurricane Katrina: Race, Class, and the Biopolitics of Disposability”, accessed from JSTOR 7/1/12)//BZ

Hurricane Katrina may have reversed the self-imposed silence of the media and public numbness in the face of terrible suffering. Fifty years after the body of Emmett Till was plucked out of the mud-filled waters of the Tallahatchie River, another set of troubling visual representations has emerged that both shocked and shamed the nation. In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, grotesque images of bloated corpses floating in the rotting waters that flooded the streets of New Orleans circulated throughout the mainstream media. What first appeared to be a natural catastrophe soon degenerated into a social debacle as further images revealed, days after Katrina had passed over the Gulf Coast, hundreds of thousands of poor people, mostly blacks, some Latinos, many elderly, and a few white people, packed into the New Orleans Superdome and the city’s convention center, stranded on rooftops, or isolated on patches of dry highway without any food, water, or any place to wash, urinate, or find relief from the scorching sun .1 Weeks passed as the flood water gradually receded and the military gained control of the city, and more images of dead bodies surfaced in the national and global media. TV cameras rolled as bodies emerged from the flood waters while people stood by indifferently eating their lunch or occasionally snapping a photograph. Most of the bodies found “were 50 or older, people who tried to wait the hurricane out” (Frosch 2005, 1-4). Various media soon reported that over 154 bodies had been found in hospitals and nursing homes. The New York Times wrote that “ the collapse of one of soci-ety’s most basic covenants—to care for the helpless—suggests that the elderly and critically ill plummeted to the bottom of priority lists as calamity engulfed New Orleans (Jackson 2005). Dead people, mostly poor African- Americans, left uncollected in the streets, on porches, hospitals, nursing homes, in electric wheelchairs, and in collapsed houses prompted some people to claim thatAmerica had become like a “Third World country” while others argued that New Orleans resembled a “Third World RefugeeCamp (Brooks 2005, 1-2).There were now, irrefutably, two Gulf crises.The Federal Emergency Management Agency ( FEMA ) tried to do damage control by forbidding journalists to “accompany rescue boats as they went out to search for storm victims.” As a bureau spokeswoman told Reuters News Agency, “We have requested that no photographs of the deceased be made by the media ” (Neal 2005). But questions about responsibility and answerability would not go away. Even the dominant media for a short time rose to the occasion of posing tough questions about accountability to those in power in light of such egregious acts of incompetence and indifference. The images of dead bodies kept reappearing in New Orleans, refusing to go away. For many, the bodies of the poor, black, brown, elderly, and sick came to signify what the battered body of Emmett Till once unavoidably revealed, and America was forced to confront these disturbing images and the damning questions behind the images. The Hurricane Katrina disaster, like the Emmett Till affair, revealed a vulnerable and destitute segment of the nations citizenry that conservatives not only refused to see but had spent the better part of two decades demonizing. But like the incessant beating of Poes tell-tale heart, cadavers have a way of insinuating themselves on consciousness, demanding answers to questions that aren’t often asked. The body of Emmett Till symbolized overt white supremacy and state terrorism organized against the threat that black men (apparently of all sizes and ages) posed against white women. But the black bodies of the dead and walking wounded in New Orleans in 2005 revealed a different image of the racial state, a different modality of state terrorism, marked less by an overt form of white racism than by a highly mediated displacement of race as a central concept for understanding both Katrina and its place in the broader history of U.S. racism .2 That is, while Till s body insisted upon a public recognition of the violence of white supremacy, the decaying black bodies floating in the waters of the Gulf Coast represented a return of race against the media and public insistence that this disaster was more about class than race, more about the shameful and growing presence of poverty, “the abject failure to provide aid to the most vulnerable ” (Foner 2005, 8).Tills body allowed the racism that destroyed it to be made visible, to speak to the systemic character of American racial injustice. The bodies of the Katrina victims could not speak with the same directness to the state of American racist violence but they did reveal and shatter the conservative fiction of living in a color-blind society. The bodies of the Katrina victims l aid bare the racial and class fault lines that mark an increasingly damaged and withering democracy and revealed the emergence of a new kind of politics, one in which entire populations are now considered disposable, an unnecessary burden on state coffers, and consigned to fend for themselves. At the same time, what happened in New Orleans also revealed some frightening signposts of those repressive features in American society, demanding that artists, public intellectuals, scholars, and other cultural workers take seriously what Angela Davis insists “are very clear signs of. . . impending fascist policies and practices,” which not only construct an imaginary social environment for all of those populations rendered disposable but also exemplify a site and space “where democracy has lost its claims ” (2005, 122,124).


 * Racism creates a permanent condition of war**
 * Mendieta 02**, Eduardo Mendieta, PhD and Associate professor of Stonybrook School of Philosophy, “‘To make live and to let die’ –Foucault on Racism Meeting of the Foucault Circle, APA Central Division Meeting” http://www.stonybrook.edu/commcms/philosophy/people/faculty_pages/docs/foucault.pdf

This is where racism intervenes, not from without, exogenously, but from within, constitutively. For the emergence of biopower as the form of a new form of political rationality, entails the inscription within the very logic of the modern state the logic of racism. For __racism grants,__ and here I am quoting: “ __the conditions for the acceptability of putting to death in a society of normalization. Where there is a society of normalization, where there is a power that is, in all of its surface and in first instance, and first line, a bio-power, racism is indispensable as a condition to be able to put to death someone, in order to be able to put to death others. The homicidal__ [meurtrière] __function of the state__, to the degree that the state functions on the modality of bio-power, __can only be assured by racism__ “(Foucault 1997, 227) To use the formulations from his 1982 lecture “The Political Technology of Individuals” –which incidentally, echo his 1979 Tanner Lectures –the power of the state after the 18th century, a power which is enacted through the police, and is enacted over the population, is a power over living beings, and as such it is a biopolitics. And, to quote more directly, “ __since the population is nothing more than what the state takes care of for its own sake,__ of course __, the state is entitled to slaughter it, if necessary.__ So the reverse of biopolitics is thanatopolitics.” (Foucault 2000, 416). __Racism, is the thanatopolitics of the biopolitics of the total state. They are two sides of one same8 political technology, one same political rationality: the management of life, the life of a population, the tending to the continuum of life of a people__. And __with the inscription of racism within the state of biopower, the long history of war that Foucault has been telling in these dazzling lectures has made a new turn: the war of peoples, a war against invaders, imperials colonizers, which turned into a war of races, to then turn into a war of classes, has now turned into the war of a race, a biological unit, against its polluters and threats. Racism is the means by which__ bourgeois __political power, biopower, re-kindles the fires of war within civil society.__**__Racism normalizes and medicalizes war. Racism makes war the permanent condition of society, while at the same time masking its weapons of death and torture.__** As I wrote somewhere else, **__racism banalizes genocide by making quotidian the lynching of suspect threats to the health of the social body. Racism makes the killing of the other__**, of others, **__an everyday occurrence by internalizing and normalizing the war of society against its enemies__**. To protect society entails we be ready to kill its threats, its foes, and if we understand society as a unity of life, as a continuum of the living, then these threat and foes are biological in nature.


 * Racism outweighs every impact – its the precondition to ethical political decision making.**
 * MEMMI****2000 –** Professor Emeritus of Sociology at the University of Paris (Albert, “RACISM”, translated by Steve Martinot, pp.163-165)

__The struggle against racism will be long, difficult, without intermission, without remission, probably never achieved, yet for this very reason, it is a struggle to be undertaken without surcease and without concessions. One cannot be indulgent toward racism. One cannot even let the monster in the house, especially not in a mask. To give it merely a foothold means to augment the bestial part in us and in other people which is to diminish what is human. To accept the racist universe to the slightest degree is to endorse fear, injustice, and violence. It is to accept the persistence of the dark history in which we still largely live. It is to agree that the outsider will always be a possible victim__ (and which [person] man is not [themself] himself an outsider relative to someone else?). __Racism illustrates in sum, the inevitable negativity of the condition of the dominated**;**__ __that is it illuminates in a certain sense the entire human condition. The anti-racist struggle, difficult though it is, and always in question, is nevertheless one of the prologues to the ultimate passage from animality to humanity. In that sense, we cannot fail to rise to the racist challenge. However, it remains true that one’s moral conduct only emerges from a choice: one has to want it. It is a choice among other choices, and always debatable in its foundations and its consequences.__ Let us say, broadly speaking, that the choice to conduct oneself morally is the condition for the establishment of a human order for which racism is the very negation. This is almost a redundancy. __One cannot found a moral order, let alone a legislative order, on racism because racism signifies the exclusion of the other and his or her subjection to violence and domination. From an ethical point of view**,**__ if one can deploy a little religious language, __racism is “the truly capital sin.**”**____fn22__ It is not an accident that almost all of humanity’s spiritual traditions counsel respect for the weak, for orphans, widows, or strangers. It is not just a question of theoretical counsel respect for the weak, for orphans, widows or strangers. __It is not just a question of theoretical morality and disinterested commandments. Such unanimity in the safeguarding of the other suggests the real utility of such sentiments. All things considered, we have an interest in banishing injustice, because injustice engenders violence and death. Of course, this is debatable. There are those who think that if one is strong enough, the assault on and oppression of others is permissible. But no one is ever sure of remaining the strongest. One day, perhaps, the roles will be reversed. All unjust society contains within itself the seeds of its own death**.**__ It is probably smarter to treat others with respect so that they treat you with respect. “Recall,” says the bible, “that you were once a stranger in Egypt,” which means both that you ought to respect the stranger because you were a stranger yourself and that you risk becoming once again someday. __It is an ethical and a practical appeal – indeed, it is a contract, however implicit it might be. In short, the refusal of racism is the condition for all theoretical and practical morality. Because, in the end, the ethical choice commands the political choice. A just society must be a society accepted by all. If this contractual principle is not accepted, then only conflict, violence, and destruction will be our lot. If it is accepted, we can hope someday to live in peace. True, it is a wager, but the stakes are irresistible.__


 * Transportation infrastructure is critical to evacuation**
 * Wolshon, 06** – Assistant Professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Louisiana State University (Brian, “The Aftermath of Katrina”, http://www.nae.edu/Publications/Bridge/TheAftermathofKatrina/EvacuationPlanningandEngineeringforHurricaneKatrina.aspx)//BZ

__Although little can be done to alter the weather, we can prepare for the eventuality of hurricanes__ and other natural and man-made hazards. For decades, __engineers and scientists have been developing techniques, strategies, and materials to help the built environment withstand the effects of hurricanes.__ In addition, building and zoning codes have been changed to keep critical infrastructure away from hazardous areas to minimize the risks of flood and wind damage. __The only way to protect people__, however, __is to evacuate__ __them when threats arise,____but this is often easier said than done.__ At the fundamental level, __the concept of evacuation is simple—move people away from danger__. In reality, evacuations, particularly __evacuations on a mass scale, are complex undertakings__ .As the nation clearly saw during Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, it is not always possible to evacuate everyone who is in danger. The most obvious problem is the sheer scope of the event. Hurricane evacuations may involve millions of people over hundreds of thousands of square miles. In addition, __because evacuations are inconvenient and disruptive, evacuees often delay travel decisions until the threat appears imminent,__ thus __compressing the enormous travel demand into shorter time periods.__ One complicating factor is that **__transportation infrastructure is neither planned nor designed to accommodate evacuation-level demand__** ; __building enough capacity to move the population____of an entire city in a matter of hours is simply not economically, environmentally, or socially feasible__. __Roadways are not even designed to be delay-free under routine peak-period condition__ s. The effectiveness of an evacuation is also greatly affected by human behavior and socioeconomics. No matter how threatening the conditions, some people refuse or are unable to leave. Despite these difficulties, the evacuation of New Orleans for Hurricane Katrina was widely viewed as a success; data show that more people were able to leave the city in a shorter time than had been thought possible. There were also apparent failures, however, particularly in the evacuation of low-mobility groups. This article highlights the development of the evacuation management plan for Hurricane Katrina and summarizes some of the facts, findings, and unresolved issues. The discussion is presented from the perspective of a transportation engineer and centers primarily on the highway-based aspects of the evacuation, including demand, capacity, and issues related to the non-evacuees. This article also presents some lessons learned and how they may be applied to other locations and other threat scenarios and identifies unanswered questions and research needs that should be addressed in the future. The Katrina Evacuation Plan **__The city of New Orleans has long been considered “a disaster waiting to happen__** .” For those who prepare for, respond to, and study such events, **__the level of death and destruction wrought by Katrina was not outside the realm of possibil__**__ity__. Although a complete evacuation of the city has been the cornerstone of hurricane preparedness planning for the region, the highway evacuation plan used for Katrina evolved over a period of many years based on valuable lessons learned from prior storms in Louisiana and elsewhere.

Framing

 * Impacts should be viewed through the lens of environmental and racial justice– this is necessary to understand and rebuild after Katrina.**
 * Sze 06** Julie Sze is an assistant professor in American Studies at the University of California, Davis. Her forthcoming book on the culture, politics and history of environmental justice activism in New York City is under contract with MIT Press. It looks at the intersection of planning and health, especially through the prism of asthma, and at changes in garbage and energy systems as a result of privatization, globalization and deregulation. Toxic Soup Redux: Why Environmental Racism and Environmental Justice Matter after Katrina By Julie Sze Published on: Jun 11, 2006

Thus, __the Gulf Coast region was, in many ways, “Ground Zero” of the environmental justice movement__, and its advocates led the way in publicizing the troubling racial disparity in exposure to pollution from the oil and petrochemical sectors. But __environmental racism refers not only to the disparity of pollution effects, it also refers to the larger systemic problems that caused it, such as the exclusion of voices and perspectives of racial minorities and working-class populations from environmental policy-making__. **__The term “transportation racism__** ,” for example, __is given__ by sociologists like Robert Bullard among others **__to the application of an environmental justice framework to transportation planning and policy__** .6 And __given that transportation is a key component of disaster planning and evacuation, the fact that the stranded were poor, black, disproportionately elderly, young and old, and without private transportation reflects dimensions of environmental racism. Environmental justice is__ also __a useful framework for understanding Katrina__ because __it is an integrative approach that refuses a divide between the natural/ environmental and the social/ racial. Environmental justice expands the concept of environment to include public and human health concerns__, in addition to natural resources such as air, land and water. Thus, __taking an environmental justice perspective on Katrina necessarily refuses an analysis that divides natural and social disasters. This analysis is perhaps best represented by__ Eric __Klinenberg’s account of how race and class intersected with the natural disaster discourse__ in Chicago’s 1995 heat wave that killed 700 Chicagoans, many of them poor and African-American. He rejects the rhetoric of natural disaster adopted by politicians as a simplified mode of explanation for who, why and how so many died.7 Similarly, __environmental justice activists reject race and class “neutrality” by forcing a closer look at who benefits and who bears the burdens of environmental and energy policies.__ Years before Katrina hit, __environmental justice activists were anticipating the racially disproportionate effects__ of climate change, __in terms of coastal flooding and the health effects of heat waves, through the Environmental Justice and Climate Change Initiative__ (EJCC). The EJCC is a coalition of 28 U.S. environmental justice, climate justice, religious, policy, and advocacy groups that formed to pressure the Bush Administration and Congress on climate change and the Kyoto Protocol. As their 2002 fact sheet stated: “ __People of color are concentrated in urban centers in the South, coastal regions, and areas with substandard air quality. New Orleans, which is 62 percent African-American and 2 feet below sea level, exemplifies the severe and disproportionate impacts of climate change in the U.S.”__ 8 __Lastly, despite the centrality of environmental racism and environmental justice frameworks to understanding the racially disproportionate ways in which Katrina’s effects and its aftermath were and are being experienced, **this analysis has been largely ignored in media, academic, and policy perspectives**__. In part, the lack of analysis stems from the literal disappearance of environmental justice activists from the region who, like millions of others, are displaced or in some cases perhaps dead. __Without the vigilance of these environmental justice activists in the rebuilding effort, the clean-up and redevelopment of New Orleans will not include perspectives that prioritize environmental justice and community health concerns__ .9 This trend is already exemplified by the Bush Administration’s temporary suspension of environmental regulations in the wake of rebuilding, which they hope to make permanent in reconstruction legislation (and that echo the Administration’s suspension of environmental regulations in the name of national security).10 Although __these moves to dismantle environmental laws__ are not surprising, they __are particularly dangerous given the literal erasure of the meaning of environmental justice by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency just weeks before Katrina__. In June, __the Administration announced that it was removing race and class from special consideration in its definition of environmental justice__, pulling back from Clinton’s 1994 Executive Order on Environmental Justice which mandated that all federal agencies generate agency-specific strategies to address the disproportionate pollution experienced by minority communities, and set a controversial and abbreviated public comment period, ending just 10 days before Katrina hit. Thus, **__the moment that the concept of environmental racism is being most attacked__**, is paradoxically the most crucial time to bring environmental justice back into the center of the analysis of Katrina in particular, and of how the health and environments of communities of color in the United States in general are fundamentally shaped by race and class considerations. **__Inserting an environmental justice framework into Hurricane Katrina ensures that the perspectives of local environmental justice activists, community and environmental health views on rebuilding New Orleans, and the concept of environmental justice in national policy terms, will not be easily erased__**. The vibrancy of the regional environmental justice movement was a product of local histories of economic development, environmental pollution, and race relations. __With Katrina, we need to hear more, not less, from environmental justice activists who have been long engaged with the toxic, environmental and disaster politics in the region.__

Health Policy Institute (Reilly, “Environmental Justice Through the Eye of Hurricane Katrina” 2008, http://198.65.105.204/hpi/sites/all/files/EnvironmentalJustice.pdf )//ALo
 * Environmental justice demands federal action; leaving policies up to local populations CREATES Katrina–like disasters as communities fail to live up to their obligations to the poor.**
 * Morse 08** - senior attorney with the Biloxi office of Mississippi Center for Justice; received Equal Justice Works Katrina Legal Fellowship; received Edwin D. Wolf Public Interest Law Award from the Lawyers Committee for Civil Rights Under Law; co-founder of the Steps Coalition; Panelist for the Joint center for Political and Economic Studies, NAACP; published by the Joint Center For Political and Economic Studies

The __American transportation model unfairly tends to burden minorities and the poor__. In general, z __federal transportation funding is divided so that 80 percent goes to highways and 20 percent goes to public transportation, but states tend to spend less on public transportation__. __Transportation policy that favors automobiles and highways over public transit systems serves non-metropolitan needs more than metropolitan needs, promotes white flight from urban to suburban areas, displaces low-income urban communities to make room for elevated freeways, weakens inner cities, induces sprawl, and increases air pollution__. 188 __Even within public transportation__, which functions most efficiently in densely developed urban areas with a clear city-center orientation, 189  __there is a subsidy bias in favor of higher-income riders using rail service over lower-income riders using buses. This tends to geographically limit the availability of inter-urban passenger rail service__. 190 __As public transportation is restricted, personal transportation costs increase. This burden falls significantly more heavily on the lowest income quintile, among whom up to 36 percent of the after-tax household budget is spent on transportation, double what the highest quintile spends.__ 191 Low-income households who use an automobile to commute spend 7 percent more of their income on transportation than those using public transportation. 192 Nationwide, the amount of income spent on transportation among very low-income households increased by 36.5 percent between 1992 and 2000, double the rate of increase for those in the top quintile. 193 __Environmental justice highlights the systemic effects of transportation policy on the environment, such as the hybrid benefits of a stronger public transit system—reduced carbon footprint, increased social and community connection, and wider access to jobs, goods, and public services for disadvantaged communities. An emphasis on automobiles and highways, viewed from an environmental justice perspective, produces the opposite results—increased pollution, increased social and community isolation, and decreased access to jobs, goods, and public services. To some, transportation, evacuation, and disaster relief may set the outer limit of the social agenda of environmental justice, but the New Orleans Superdome experience has highlighted the link between increased vulnerability of disadvantaged populations to environmental and natural disasters and decreased governmental response to those populations after disaster strikes. **In the realm of evacuation and disaster response, environmental justice mirrors international human rights obligations of government** **to provide for internally displaced persons, including the right to return and to adequate interim care and treatment**. 194__


 * A federal response is the only ethical route. We need to recognize our collective responsibility to vulnerable populations.**
 * Giroux, 2006** – Professor of English and Cultural Studies at McMaster University, previous professors at BU, Miami U, and Penn State (Henry, “Reading Hurricane Katrina: Race, Class, and the Biopolitics of Disposability”, accessed from JSTOR 7/1/12)//BZ

In a May 25, 2001 interview, Grover Norquist, head of the right-wing group Americans for Tax Reform, told National Public Radios Mara Liasson: “I don’t want to abolish government. I simply want to reduce it to the size where I can drag it into the bathroom and drown it in the bathtub” (Qtd. in Hertmann 2005). As a radical right-wing activist and practical strategist, Norquist has been enormously instrumental and successful in shaping tax policies designed to “starve the beast,” a metaphor for policies designed to drive up deficits by cutting taxes, especially for the rich, in order to paralyze government and dry up funds for many federal programs that offer pro tection for children, the elderly, and the poor. Norquist saw his efforts pay off when thousands of people, most of them poor and black, drowned in the basin of New Orleans and upwards of one million were displaced. Under such circumstances, a decades-long official policy of benign neglect became malign neglect, largely rationalized through a market fundamentalism in which the self-interested striving of individuals becomes the cornerstone of both freedom and democracy. This is a politics that wages war against any viable notion of the democratic social. A nd as Lawrence Grossberg points out, “ The free market in neoliberalism is fundamentally an argument against politics, or at least against a politics that attempts to govern society in social rather than economic terms ” (117). The neoliberal efforts to shrink big government and public services must be understood both in terms of those who bore the brunt of such efforts in New Orleans and in terms of the subsequent inability of the government to deal adequately with Hurricane Katrina. Reducing the federal governments ability to respond to social problems is a decisive element of neoliberal policymaking, as was echoed in a Wall Street Journal editorial that argued without irony that taxes should be raised for low-income individuals and families, not to make more money available to the federal government for addressing their needs but to rectify the possibility that they “might not be feeling a proper hatred for the government” (Qtd. in Krugman 2002, 31). If the poor can be used as pawns in this logic to further the political attack on big government, it seems reasonable to assume that those in the Bush administration who hold such a position would refrain from using big government as quickly as possible to save the very lives of such groups, as was evident in the aftermath of Katrina. The vilification of the social state and big government — really an attack on non-military aspects of government—has translated into a steep decline of tax revenues, a massive increase in military spending, and the growing immiseration of poor Americans and people of color. Under the Bush administration, Census Bureau figures reveal that “since 1999, the income of the poorest fifth of Americans has dropped 8.7 percent in inflation-adjusted dollars. . . [and in 2005] 1.1 million were added to the 36 million already on the poverty rolls” (Scheer 2005).While the number of Americans living below the poverty line is comparable to the combined populations of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Texas, and Arkansas, the Bush administration chose to make in the 2006 budget $70 billion in new tax cuts for the rich while slashing programs that benefit the least fortunate (Legum et al 2005). Similarly, the projected $2.7 trillion budget for 2007 includes a $4.9 billion reduction in health funds for senior citizens (Medicare) and the State Children s Health Insurance Program; a $17 million cut in aid for child- support enforcement; cutbacks in funds for low-income people with disabil ities; major reductions in child-care and development block grants; major defunding for housing for low-income elderly; and an unprecedented rollback in student aid. In addition, the 2007 budget calls for another $70 billion dollars in tax cuts most beneficial to the rich and provides for a huge increase in military spending for the war in Iraq (Weisman 2006, A10). While President Bush endlessly argues for the economic benefits of his tax cuts, he callously omits the fact that 13 million children are living in poverty in the United States, “4.5 million more than when Bush was first inaugurated” (Scheer 2005). And New Orleans had the third highest rate of children living in poverty in the United States (Legum et al 2005). The illiteracy rate in New Orleans before the flood struck was 40 percent ; the embarrassingly ill-equipped public school system was one of the most underfunded in the natio n. Nearly 19 percent of Louisiana residents lacked health insurance, putting the state near the bottom for the percentage of people without health insurance. Robert Scheer, a journalist and social critic, estimated that one-third of the 150,000 people living in dire poverty in Louisiana were elderly, left exposed to the flooding in areas most damaged by Katrina (2005). It gets worse. In an ironic twist of fate, one day after Katrina hit New Orleans, the U.S. Census Bureau released two important reports on poverty, indicating that “Mississippi (with a 21.6 percent poverty rate) and Louisiana (19.4 percent) are the nations poorest states, and that New Orleans (with a 23.2 percent poverty rate) is the 12th poorest city in the nation. [Moreover,] New Orleans is not only one of the nation’s poorest cities, but its poor people are among the most concentrated in poverty ghettos. Housing discrimination and the location of government-subsidized housing have contributed to the city’s economic and racial segregation” (Dreier 2005). Under neoliberal capitalism, the attack on politically responsible government has only been matched by an equally harsh attack on social provisions and safety nets for the poo r. And in spite of the massive failures of market-driven neoliberal policies—extending from a soaring $420 billion budget deficit to the underfunding of schools, public health, community policing, and environmental protection programs— the reigning right-wing orthodoxy of the Bush administration continues to “give precedence to private financial gain and market determinism over human lives and broad public values” (Greider 2005). The Bush administration’s ideological hostility towards the essential role that government should play in providing social services and crucial infra-structure was particularly devastating for New Orleans in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Prior to 9/11, the Federal Emergency Management Agency listed a hurricane strike on New Orleans as one of the three most likely catastrophic disasters facing America. The Houston Chronicle wrote in December 2001 that “[t]he New Orleans hurricane scenario may be the deadliest of all” (Krugman 2005). And yet the Bush administration consistently denied repeated requests for funds by the New Orleans Army Corps of Engineers. Ignoring such requests, the Bush administration cut the Army Corps’ funding by more than a half-billion dollars in its 2002 budget, leaving unfinished the construction for the levees that eventually burst. And in spite of repeated warnings far in advance by experts that the existing levees could not withstand a Category 4 hurricane, the Bush administration in 2004 rejected the Southeast Louisiana Urban Flood Control Project’s request for $100 million, offering instead a measly $16.5 million. Huge tax cuts for the rich and massive cuts in much-needed programs continued unabated in the Bush administration, all the while putting the lives of thousands of poor people in the Gulf Basin in jeopardy. As David Sirota has reported, this disastrous underfunding of efforts to build the levee infrastructure, coupled with even more tax cuts for the rich and less revenue for the states, continued right up to the time that Hurricane Katrina struck, making it almost impossible for governments in the Gulf region either to protect their citizens from the impact of a major hurricane or to develop the resources necessary for an adequate emergency response plan in the event of a flood.


 * The 1AC is a pedagogical advocacy that opens up new opportunities for democratic deliberation and political action. A recognition of our obligations to the materially deprived helps to combat the biopolitics of disposability.**
 * Giroux, 2006** – Professor of English and Cultural Studies at McMaster University, previous professors at BU, Miami U, and Penn State (Henry, “Reading Hurricane Katrina: Race, Class, and the Biopolitics of Disposability”, accessed from JSTOR 7/1/12)//BZ

Biopolitics is not just about the reduction of selected elements of the population to the necessities of bare life or worse; it is also potentially about enhancing life by linking hope and a new vision to the struggle for reclaimingthe social, providing a language capable of translating individual issues into public considerations, and recognizing that in the age of the new media the terrain of culture is one of the most important pedagogical spheres through which to challenge the most basic precepts of the new authoritarianism. The waste machine of modernity, as Bauman points out, must be challenged within a new understanding of environmental justice, human rights, and democratic politics (2000, 15). Negative globalization with its attachment to the mutually enforcing modalities of militarism and racial segregation must be exposed and dismantled. And this demands new forms of resistance that are both more global and differentiated. But i f these struggles are going to emerge, especially in the United States, then we need a politics and pedagogy of hope, one that takes seriously Hannah Arendt s call to use the public realm to throw light on the “dark times” that threaten to extinguish the very idea of democracy Against the tyranny of market fundamentalism, religious dogmatism, unchecked militarism, and ideological claims to certainty, an emancipatory biopolitics must enlist education as a crucial force in the struggle over democratic identities, spaces, and ideals. Central to the biopolitics of disposability is the recognition that abiding powerlessness atrophies the public imagination and leads to political paralysis. Consequently, its policies avidly attack critical education at all levels of cultural production in an all-out effort to undermine critical thought, imagination, and substantive agency. To significantly confront the force of a biopolitics in the service of the new authoritarianism, intellectuals, artists, and others in various cultural sites—from schools to higher education to the media— will have to rethink what it means to secure the conditions for critical education both within and outside of the schools. In the context of formal schooling, this means fighting against the corporatization, commercialism, and privatization of public schools. Higher education has to be defended in the same terms. Against the biopolitics of racial exclusion, the university should be a principal site where dialogue, negotiation, mutual understanding, and respect provide the knowledge and experience for students to develop a shared space for affirming differences while simultaneously learning those shared values necessary for an inclusive democratic society. Similarly, both public and higher education must address with new courage the history of American slavery, the enduring legacy of racism in the United States, and its interface with both political nationalism and the enduring market and religious fundamentalisms at work in contemporary societ y Similarly, racism must be not be reduced to a private matter, a case of individual prejudice removed from the dictates of state violence and the broader realm of politics, and left to matters of “taste, preference, and ultimately, of consumer, or lifestyle choice” (Gilroy 2005,146-47). What must be instituted and fought for in higher education is a critical and anti-racist pedagogy that unsettles, stirs up human consciousness, “breeds dissatisfaction with the level of both freedom and democracy achieved thus far,” and inextricably connects the fates of freedom, democracy, and critical education (Bauman 2003,14). Hannah Arendt once argued that “the public realm has lost the power of illumination,” and one result is that more and more people “have retreated from the world and their obligations within it” (1955, 4). The public realm is not merely a space where the political, social, economic, and cultural interconnect; it is also the pre-eminent space of public pedagogy —that is, a space where subjectivities are shaped, public commitments are formed, and choices are made. As sites of cultural politics and public pedagogy, public spaces offer a unique opportunity for critically engaged citizens, young people, academies, teachers, and various intellectuals to engage in pedagogical struggles that provide the conditions for social empowerment. Such struggles can be waged through the new media, films, publications, radio interviews, and a range of other forms of cultural production. It is especially crucial, as Mark Poster has argued, that scholars, teachers, public intellectuals, artists, and cultural theorists take on the challenge of understanding how the new media technologies construct subjects differently with multiple forms of literacy that engage a range of intellectual capacities (2001). This also means deploying new technologies of communication such as the Internet, camcorder, and cell phone in political and pedagogically strategic ways to build protracted struggles and reclaim the promise of a democracy that insists on racial, gender, and economic equality. The new technoculture is a powerful pedagogical tool that needs to be used, on the one hand, in the struggle against both dominant media and the hegemonic ideologies they produce, circulate, and legitimate, and, on the other hand, as a valuable tool in treating men and women as agents of change, mindful of the consequences of their actions, and utterly capable of pursuing truly egalitarian models of democracy. The promise of a better world cannot be found in modes of authority that lack a vision of social justice, renounce the promise of democracy, and reject the dream of a better future, offering instead of dreams the pale assurance of protection from the nightmare of an all-embracing terrorism. Against this stripped-down legitimation of authority is the promise of public spheres, which in their diverse forms, sites, and content offer pedagogical and political possibilities for strengthening the social bonds of democracy, new spaces within which to cultivate the capacities for critical modes of individual and social agency, and crucial opportunities to form alliances to collectively struggle for a biopolitics that expands the scope of vision, operations of democracy, and the range of democratic institutions— that is, a biopolitics that fights against the terrors of totalitarianism. Such spheres are about more than legal rights guaranteeing freedom of speech; they are also sites that demand a certain kind of citizen informed by particular forms of education, a citizen whose education provides the essential conditions for democratic public spheres to flourish. Cornelius Castoriadis, the great philosopher of democracy, argues that if public space is not to be experienced not as a private affair, but as a vibrant sphere in which people learn how to participate in and shape public life, then it must be shaped through an education that provides the decisive traits of courage, responsibility, and shame, all of which connect the fate of each individual to the fate of others, the planet, and global democracy (1991, 81-123). In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, the biopolitical calculus of massive power differentials and iniquitous market relations put the scourge of poverty and racism on full display. To confront the biopolitics of disposability, we need to recognize the dark times in which we live and offer up avision of hope that creates the conditions for multiple collective and global struggles that refuse to use politics as an act of war and markets as the measure of democracy. Making human beings superfluous is the essence of totalitarianism, and democracy is the antidote in urgent need of being reclaimed. Katrina should keep the hope of such a struggle alive for quite sometime because for many of us the images of those floating bodies serve as an desperate reminder of what it means when justice, as the lifeblood of democracy, becomes cold and indifferent in the face of death.

si
 * Integrating ethical obligations to the other into politics is the only way to prevent totalitarianism**
 * Simmons 99** William Paul, current Associate Professor of Political Science at ASU, formerly at Bethany College in the Department of History and Political Science, “The Third: Levinas' theoretical move from an-archical ethics to the realm of justice and politics,” Philosophy & Social Criticism November 1, 1999 vol. 25 no. 6

__Levinas argues for a place for both ethics and politics__, or, to employ his metaphor, a place for both the Jewish tradition of ethics and responsibility and, along with it, the Greek tradition of language, justice and politics. This section will analyze the mutual necessity of both ethics and politics. According to Levinas, __ethics and politics can both be needed only if there is separation__, that is, if each has its own justiﬁcation. Neither ethics nor politics should be taken to their extremes; __each must be moderated by the other__. ‘I think there’s a direct contradiction between ethics and politics, if both these demands are taken to the extreme.’ 56 __Ethics must temper the political because politics unbounded leads to tyranny, absolute power of the strongest.__ __Politics ignores the individuality of each citizen__, treating each as a cipher, a member of a species. Further, without a norm outside of the scope of the said, there is no standard to judge political regimes. The call for a standard by which to judge regimes is what Levinas means by a return to Platonism. Plato, in the Republic, had used the good beyond being as his standard. A return to Platonism would be necessary to restore ‘the independence of ethics in relation to history’ and trace ‘a limit to the comprehension of the real by history’. 57 __Levinas ﬁnds a standard in the ethical relationship with the Other. The norm that must continue to inspire and direct the moral order is the ethical norm__ of the interhuman. __If the moral-political order totally relinquishes its ethical foundation, it must accept all forms of society, including the fascist or totalitarian__, for it can no longer evaluate or discriminate between them. The state is usually better than anarchy – but not always. __In some instances__, – fascism or totalitarianism, for example – __the political order of the state may have to be challenged in the name of our ethical responsibility to the other__. This is why __ethical philosophy must remain the ﬁrst philosophy__. 58 At the same time, __ethics needs politics. To reach those others who are far away, ethics must be transﬁxed into language, justice and politics__. ‘As prima philosophia, __ethics cannot itself legislate for society or produce rules of conduct whereby society might be revolutionized or transformed__ .’ 59 __Although this universalization distances the ego from the Other, it must be done to reach the others__. We must, out of respect for the categorical imperative or the other’s right as expressed by his face, un-face human beings, sternly reducing each one’s uniqueness to his individuality in the unity of the genre, and let universality rule. Thus __we need laws__, and – yes – courts of law, institutions and the state to render justice. 60 Further, __politics is necessary because there are those who will refuse to heed the new law, ‘Thou shall not kill__ .’ Levinas is well aware that this commandment is not an ontological impossibility. Many will take Cain’s position and shun the responsibility for the Other. Thus, __politics is necessary to prohibit murder__, in all its forms. ‘ __A place had to be foreseen and kept warm for all eternity for Hitler and his followers__ .’ 61 __Both ethics and politics have their own justiﬁcation. The justiﬁcation for ethics is found in the face-to-face relationship with the Other__. The justiﬁcation for politics is to restrain those who follow Cain’s position and ignore the responsibility for the Other. __Politics does not subsume ethics, but rather it serves ethics. Politics is necessary but it must be continually checked by ethics. Levinas calls for a state that is as ethical as possible__, one which is perpetually becoming more just. __Levinas calls for the liberal state__.


 * The state is inevitable – our obligation is to make it as ethical as possible**
 * Simmons 99** William Paul, current Associate Professor of Political Science at ASU, formerly at Bethany College in the Department of History and Political Science, “The Third: Levinas' theoretical move from an-archical ethics to the realm of justice and politics,” Philosophy & Social Criticism November 1, 1999 vol. 25 no. 6

__Since ‘it is impossible to escape the State__ ’, 70 __Levinas insists that the state be made as ethical as possible. The world of institutions and justice must be held in check by the an-archical responsibility for the Othe__ r. Levinas calls for both an-archy and justice. Alongside the an-archical responsibility for the Other __there is a place for the realm of the said, which includes__ ontology, justice and __politics__. Levinas’ thought is not apolitical as many have charged. __His harsh critiques of the political realm refer to a politics unchecked by ethics__. For example, in Totality and Inﬁnity, __Levinas sees politics as antithetical to an ethics based on the Other__. ‘The art of foreseeing war and winning it by every means – politics – is henceforth enjoined as the very exercise of reason. Politics is opposed to morality, as philosophy to naïveté.’ 71 __Politics unrestrained__, by necessity, __totalizes the Other__ __by reducing him or her to abstract categories. Levinas will call for a politics that is founded on ethics and not on ontology. The state must be answerable to the an-archical relationship with the Other, it must strive to maintain the exteriority of the Other__. Levinasian heteronomic political thought oscillates between the saying and the said, an-archy and justice, ethics and politics. The liberal state is the concrete manifestation of this oscillation. Levinas calls for a balance between the Greek and the Judaic traditions. __Neither tradition should dominate.__ The fundamental contradiction of our situation (and perhaps of our condition). . . that both the hierarchy taught by Athens and the abstract and slightly anarchical ethical individualism taught by Jerusalem are simultaneously necessary in order to suppress the violence.0020 __Each of these principles, left to itself, only hastens the contrary of what it wants to secure.__

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