AFF+-+Josh+&+Doug

1AC – 3.0

Plan Text
====The United States federal government should substantially expand the United States Coast Guard’s non-military heavy polar icebreaking capabilities.====

Russia
====Russian Arctic militarization is expanding rapidly – the lack of ice-capable ships prevents a US response==== As the U.S. and E.U. keep a very close AND by entering into a military buildup simply to dominate Russia in the Arctic.
 * Mitchell 14** – Jon Mitchell is an independent author for Foreign Policy Journal, citing Naval Statements and Nicholas Cunningham, an expert in the field (“Russia’s Territorial Ambition and Increased Military Presence in the Arctic” April 23, 2014 []) zabd

Expanding militarization risks conflict among multiple rising Arctic powers
The Arctic, always before on the frigid edges of the international imagination, is AND exploitation of the Arctic “will become a future mission of the navy .”
 * Blank, 14** - Stephen J. Blank is a senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council; served as the Strategic Studies Institute’s expert on the Soviet bloc and the post-Soviet world since 1989. Prior to that he was Associate Professor of Soviet Studies at the Center for Aerospace Doctrine, Research, and Education, Maxwell Air Force Base (Stephen, “Enter Asia: The Arctic Heats Up” World Affairs Journal, March/April, [|http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/enter-asia-arctic-heats)//DH]

====Claims of Arctic cooperation don’t account for the decline in U.S. leadership which makes great power war likely==== The Arctic in the unipolar moment One of the cornerstones of America's unipolar moment has AND the structure are very likely to translate into changes to state security strategies.
 * Murray, 12** – Vice President of Research at the Frontier Centre for Public Policy and an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Alberta. He holds a senior fellowship at the Atlantic Institute for Market Studies, a research fellowship at the University of Calgary’s Centre for Military and Strategic Studies, and a research fellowship at the University of Alberta’s European Union Centre of Excellence.(Robert, “Arctic politics in the emerging multipolar system: challenges and consequences” The Polar Journal, June, Taylor & Francis)//DH

Arctic conflict risks a nuclear confrontation
Wallace & Staples ‘10 – *Professor Emeritus at the University of British Columbia, **President of the Rideau Institute in Ottawa (Michael, Steven, “Ridding the Arctic of Nuclear Weapons: A Task Long Overdue,”) //J.N.E The fact is, the Arctic is becoming a zone of increased military competition. AND in which nuclear powers find themselves in military confrontation can be taken lightly.

That causes extinction
Vestergaard ’10 – visiting fellow with the CSIS Proliferation Prevention Program, researching uranium governance, specialist in nuclear weaponry for DIIS (“Conference on an Arctic Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Copenhagen, 10-11, 2009”, Danish Institute for International Studies, *note: the document was released in 2010) //J.N.E Global climate consequences of a regional nuclear war a certain number of small weapons will AND at four specific latitudes (as labelled) (Mills et al 2008).

====The plan would revitalize US presence in the Arctic that __spills over__ to international influence==== NRC 7 – working arm of the United States National Academies, which produces reports that shape policies, inform public opinion, and advance the pursuit of science, engineering, and medicine (National Research Council, “Polar Icebreakers in a Changing World: An Assessment of US Needs,” []) mj Economic activity is predicted to increase and move northward as a result of sea- AND government polar icebreaking capability to ensure year-round access throughout the region.

US Arctic leadership generates __allied cooperation__ sufficient to check Russia
(CNN) -- While much of the world is focused on the Russian AND a safe, secure and prosperous region in which to live and work.
 * Slayton and Rosen 3-14-14** -- research fellow at the Hoover Institution and co-chair of the Hoover Institution's Arctic Security Initiative AND an international and national security lawyer by training, is a senior legal adviser at CNA Corporation (David M.* and Mark E.**, “Another region where the Russian military threatens to dominate the U.S.,” CNN, [])BC

The perception of arctic counterbalancing induces Russian cooperation
The United States devotes much of its diplomatic and military energies to the Middle East AND Congress “to start building infrastructure up there” (Joling and Papp).
 * Dowd 11** – Senior Fellow of the Fraser Institute and Senior Editor of Fraser Insight. In addition to conducting research into defence and security, he has contributed to the Institute’s Economic Freedom of North America Annual Report. Dowd is an adjunct professor at Butler University; was as a founding member of the Sagamore Institute leadership team, where he continues to hold a senior fellow post; and was director of Hudson Institute’s corporate headquarters (Alan, “The Big Chill: Energy Needs Fueling Tensions in the Arctic,” []) zabd

Climate change makes arctic methane release inevitable
Duarte and Huertas 12- *Director of the Oceans Institute at the University of Western Australia, **Staff Scientist at Spanish Scientific Research Council CSIC (Carlos and Antonio Delgado, “Methane Hydrates: A Volatile Time Bomb in the Arctic”, Arctic News, [])//WK The risk with climate change is not with the direct effect of humans on the AND to climate change appears to be a careless walk on the razor edge.

Methane bursts cause extinction-comparatively outweighs nuclear war
Ryskin 3- Ph.D. Chemical Engineering California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA Engineer-Physicist St. Petersburg Polytechnic Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia Fluid dynamics; statistical physics; geophysics Associate Professor of Chemical and Biological Engineering (Gregory, “Methane Driven Oceanic Eruptions and Mass Extinctions”, Northwestern University Department of Chemical Engineering, [])//WK// // METASTABILITY AND ERUPTION A liquid subject to gravity and completely or partially saturated with dissolved // // AND // weapons//, implicated in the nuclearwinter scenario (Turco et al., 1991).

Status quo mapping efforts are insufficient for detection and extraction
Ruppel et al. 11- U.S. Geological Survey (Dr. Carolyn, “A New Global Gas Hydrate Drilling Map Based on Reservoir Type”, USGS and DOE National Laboratory joint report in //Fire and Ice//, Fire and Ice, Vol 1. Issue 11, [|http://www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Oil-Gas/methane%20hydrates/MHNews_2011_05.pdf#Page=13])//WK Several types of maps depicting global gas hydrate occurrences have been formulated, since large AND or methane flux that modify or destroy BSRs. Two internal links:

a) Icebreakers are key to effective methane detection
APL 6- Applied Physics laboratory at the University of Washington (Applied Physics Laboratory report for the Acoustic Navigation and Communications for High-latitude Ocean Research, “Acoustic Navigation and Communications for High-latitude Ocean Research A Report from an International Workshop Sponsored by the National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs”, anchor.apl.washington.edu/ANCHOR_workshop_report.pdf)//WK The recent release of the newest International Bathymetric Chart of the Arctic Ocean (IBCAO AND  all of the measurements to be co-registered in space and time.

Mapping key to effective methane extraction
Long et al 8- *researcher for Pacific Northwest National Library (P.E, “Preliminary Geospatial Analysis of Arctic Ocean Hydrocarbon Resources”, US Department of Energy, [])//WK Ice over the Arctic Ocean is predicted to become thinner and to cover less area AND fact that these areas do not have highest potential for future hydrocarbon reserves.

====b) Icebreakers are key to extraction-the alternative is waiting for ice to melt which causes methane release==== Hargreaves 12- CNN correspondent focusing on the energy industry (Steve, “Oil: Only part of the Arctic's massive resources”, CNN Money, [])//WK NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- When Royal Dutch Shell sinks five wells off Alaska AND Arctic passable year round, and without requiring the services of an icebreaker.

The plan solves – two icebreakers are sufficient
NRC 7 – working arm of the United States National Academies, which produces reports that shape policies, inform public opinion, and advance the pursuit of science, engineering, and medicine (National Research Council, “Polar Icebreakers in a Changing World: An Assessment of US Needs,” []) mj CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS The committee finds that both operations and maintenance of the polar icebreaker AND Arctic. Other agencies should reimburse incremental costs associated with directed mission tasking.