Cristina+and+Joey


 * Afghanistan - Heg & War**


 * Plan: The United States federal government should reduce nearly all military presence necessary to pursue counterinsurgency in Afghanistan.**


 * Advantage 1: Hegemony**


 * The war in Afghanistan will collapse American primacy – 3 internal links:**


 * First – credibility. Obama announced a July 2011 withdrawal date, but at most only small numbers will leave and it depends on conditions on the ground.**
 * CBS News 6/24** (Brian Montopoli, 6/24/10, " July 2011 Deadline for Afghanistan Troop Withdrawal: Politics Over Policy? ", [])

When President Obama...to their deadline.

**The July 2011 announcement destroyed the perception of US commitment to Afghanistan**
 * Rubin, 10** – resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute; senior lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School's Center for Civil-Military Relations; and a senior editor of the //Middle East Quarterly//. (Michael, Public Square, 3/8, “The Afghanistan Withdrawal: Why Obama Was Wrong to Insist on a Deadline,” http://www.michaelrubin.org/7033/afghanistan-withdrawal-deadline)

It is true ... Iran, and even Russia.


 * Second – overstretch.** **Counterinsurgency doctrine is overstretching the US military and exhausting American leadership – withdrawing to a counterterrorism strategy is vital to preventing great power challengers**
 * Kretkowski, 10** – Frequently assists think tank in conferences and other work products that aid DoD's long-term thinking about threats that may not be addressable via weapons platforms. Spent six months in Afghanistan working with Army public affairs. (Paul, “Against COIN, for CT in Afghanistan and Elsewhere”, 1/7, Beacon (a blog), http://softpowerbeacon.blogspot.com/2010/01/against-coin-for-ct-in-afghanistan-and.html)

Over the winter... a reinvigorated Russia ).

**Kuhner, 9 -** the president of the Edmund Burke Institute for American Renewal (Jeffrey, Washington Times, “Obama’s quagmire; US should look to its own interests,” 9/7, Lexis Academic)
 * Afghanistan is a quagmire of attrition warfare that is destroying US morale and readiness.**

America is losing...arms of extremists.


 * This will obliterate American primacy**
 * Pyne, 9 -** Vice Chair of the Utah State Legislative Compensation Commission and Vice President of the Association of the United States Army's Utah chapter and a Vice President of the Salt Lake Total Force Chapter of the Military Officers Association of America (David, “ Obama failing our troops in Afghanistan,” 11/7, http://westernfrontamerica.com/2009/11/07/obama-failing-troops-afghanistan/)

Since we invaded...Georgia this past year. =**American primacy is vital to accessing every major impact—the only threat to world peace is if we allow it to collapse**=
 * Thayer, 6 -** professor of security studies at Missouri State (Bradley, The National Interest, “In Defense of Primacy”, November/December, p. 32-37)

A grand strategy...prosperity it provides.

Bounding Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan,” Small Wars Journal, 10/21, http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2009/10/toward-a-kilcullenbiden-plan/
 * Third - the dollar.** **Maintaining a large counterinsurgency strategy will bankrupt the US, end the dollar and collapse global US financial influence**
 * Corn, 9** – Ph.D. from the University of Paris and is a graduate of the U.S. Naval War College, currently on leave from the US State Department (Tony, “Toward a Kilcullen-Biden Plan?

Just do the...Vice-President Joe Biden.


 * The plan solves – reducing to a counterterrorism focus creates sustainable presence, and prevents vacillations between engagement and isolationism**
 * Stewart, 9** ( Ryan Family Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (9/16/09, Rory, “The Future of Afghanistan,” http://www.hks.harvard.edu/news-events/news/testimonies/rory-stewart-on-afghanistan)

The best Afghan...less will be more.


 * The plan’s rejection of counterinsurgency creates a doctrinal shift towards selective engagement that can sustain US presence globally**
 * Gventer, 9** - Senior Defense Analyst at the RAND Corporation and a former deputy assistant secretary of defense. She served two tours in Iraq, including a year as a senior adviser to General Peter Chiarelli, the operational commander in Iraq in 2006 (Celeste, “False Promise of 'Counterinsurgency'”, 12/1, http://www.rand.org/commentary/2009/12/01/NYT.html)

An effort to... applying overwhelming force.


 * Obama will sell the plan as a drawdown to a lighter but permanent commitment to Afghanistan – this resolves confusion over the withdrawal deadline and restores US credibility**
 * Stewart, 10** - Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at Harvard, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (Rory, “ Afghanistan: What Could Work”, New York Review of Books, 1/14, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2010/jan/14/afghanistan-what-could-work/?page=3)

But this moderate...focus on Kashmir .1


 * Advantage 2: The War**

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2010/jan/14/afghanistan-what-could-work/?page=3)
 * Counterinsurgency failure inevitable – the mountainous terrain and impossible troop requirements mean the Taliban can hide forever**
 * Stewart, 10** - Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at Harvard, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (Rory, “ Afghanistan: What Could Work”, New York Review of Books, 1/14,

The counterinsurgency strategy... its political structures.

Galston 10 - Senior Fellow of Governance Studies @ Brookings (William, Senior Fellow of Governance Studies @ Brookings, “A Question of Life and Death: U.S. Policy in Afghanistan,” Brookings, June 15th, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2010/0615_afghanistan_galston.aspx)
 * A large military footprint combined with the perception of an illegitimate government make crushing the Taliban impossible – it can recruit faster than we can kill**

Are the basic...force in Afghanistan.

**Pashtun nationalism and the lack of history with a strong state makes combatting corruption or raising a sustainable security force impossible.** **Dorronsoro, 09** - visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (9/23/09, Gilles, The National Interest, “Afghanization,” http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=22218)

In addition, there... discredited Karzai regime.

**Nationalism means that even if the US won every battle it couldn’t beat the insurgency** **Dorronsoro, 09** - visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (2/9/09, Gilles, The National Interest, “Going South in Afghanistan,” http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=20794)

Afghanistan may be... forces ever could.


 * Multiple impacts -**

**Akhtar, 10-** professor of international relations, and a senior analyst & writer. He was the dean of faculty of management, Baluchistan university, and former chairman of International Relations Department, Karachi university (1/26/10, Shameem, “Pakistan’s Instability : The US War Factor,” http://www.islamonline.net/servlet/Satellite?c=Article_C&cid=1262372328640&pagename=Zone-English-Muslim_Affairs/MAELayout#**1)**
 * First – Pakistan. A large counterinsurgency footprint drives insurgents to Pakistan, mobilizes the Pakistani Taliban and will cause Pakistan to collapse**


 * If it is...destabilizing the state.**

Pakistan collapse causes global nuclear conflict – draws in China, India and Russia Pitt, 9**- //a New York Times and internationally bestselling author of two books: "War on Iraq: What Team Bush Doesn't Want You to Know" and "The Greatest Sedition Is Silence." (5/8/09, William, “Unstable Pakistan Threatens the World,”// http://www.arabamericannews.com/news/index.php?mod=article&cat=commentary&article=2183)**


 * But a suicide...should we all.**

Second – terrorism –

Risk of nuclear terrorism is high – an attack will probably come from al Qaeda by 2013 Hall, 10 **(Mimi, USA Today, “Obama seeks front against nuclear terror”, 4/12, http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2010-04-11-nukesummit_N.htm**


 * WASHINGTON — President Obama... attack" by 2013 .**

Afghanistan is a vital safe haven for al Qaeda – terrorism is inevitable but nuclear risks can be reduced if the US drives them out Arkedis, 9 **- director of the National Security Project at the Progressive Policy Institute. He was a counterterrorism analyst with the Naval Criminal Investigative Service from 2002 to 2007 (Jim, “Why Al Qaeda Wants a Safe Haven”, 10/23, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/10/23/got_safe_haven)**


 * I spent five ...i t can access .**

Nuclear terrorism causes extinction Morgan, 9 **- Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin Campus - South Korea (Dennis, Futures, November, “World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race,” Science Direct)**


 * In a remarkable... a nuclear winter .**

A substantial drawdown to a purely counterterrorism presence will maximize US influence in Central Asia and contain instability and terrorism Simon, and Stevenson, 9 *** adjunct Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, AND** Professor of Strategic Studies at the US Naval War College, (Steven and Jonathan, “Afghanistan: How Much is Enough?” Survival, 51:5, 47 – 67, October 2009 http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/section?content=a915362559&fulltext=7132409)

An effort on...in fact, become.

**Gradual withdrawal while maintaining a counterterrorism strategy allows more effective US leadership in the war on terror and maximizes US credibility** **Chellany, 09** - professor of strategic studies at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi (9/14/09, Brahma, Japan Times, “An Advantagous U.S. Exit,” http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20090914bc.html)

When the administration's... military-mullah alliance.


 * A counterterrorism posture empirically works – it reduces the threat of terrorism and can provide actionable intelligence without undermining US credibility**
 * Long, 10** - assistant professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs (Austin, “Small is Beautiful: The Counterterrorism Option in Afghanistan,” Orbis, Spring 2010, Science Direct)

It will therefore... the U nited S tates.


 * Withdrawal of combat troops will immediately turn the population against the Taliban and shore up Afghan government legitimacy**
 * Dorronsoro,9 -**Visiting Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (January 2009, Gilles, “Focus and Exit: An Alternative Strategy for the Afghan War,” http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/afghan_war-strategy.pdf)

This three-zone strategy...Afghanistan’s peripheral regions.