Catherine+and%20Natalie


 * 1. South Korea-- Korea War, Regionalism, Modernization**


 * 2. Plan: The United States federal government should implement a phased withdrawal of its ground troops in the Republic of Korea.**


 * Advantage 1 is Korean Conflict**
 * U.S. presence makes North Korean provocations inevitable and guarantees our draw in**
 * Bandow, 10** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (5/3/10, Doug, “Taming Pyongyang,” [], JMP)

Suspicions continue to mount that … doing so in 2010 is bizarre.


 * Even if a conflict won’t start __… escalate__ to global nuclear war**
 * STRATFOR, 10** (5/26/10, “North Korea, South Korea: The Military Balance on the Peninsula,” [], JMP)

Managing Escalation But __no one__, … the situation escalates much further.


 * The status quo is fundamentally different – nuclear use is now likely and deterrence won’t solve**
 * Chung, 10** – Visiting Professor at the School of International Relations, Nanyang Technological University and former Professor of international relations at Seoul National University (6/1/10, Chung Chong Wook, “The Korean Crisis: Going Beyond the Cheonan Incident,” http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/Perspective/RSIS0352010.pdf)

The sinking of the Cheonan, …, premature pessimism is not advisable.


 * Reinforcing deterrence … just makes __miscalculation__ more likely**
 * Armstrong, 10 –** Professor of history and director of the Center for Korean Research at Columbia University (Charles, 5/26/10, CNN, “The Korean War never ended” [])

New York (CNN) -- The Korean … War, not start it anew.

This report examines North Korea’s … **__unauthorised WMD attacks or incidents.__**
 * ­Deliberate, accidental or unauthorized CBW use is likely**
 * ICG, 09** (6/18/09, International Crisis Group, “North Korea’s Chemical and Biological Weapons Programs,” [], JMP)


 * Impact is extinction**
 * Ochs 02** – MA in Natural Resource Management from Rutgers University and Naturalist at Grand Teton National Park [Richard, “BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS MUST BE ABOLISHED IMMEDIATELY,” Jun 9, http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html]

__Of all the weapons of …__ the highest of all crimes.


 * And, North Korean aggression and nuclearization will cause intentional, miscalculated, or accidental nuclear conflict – even a limited nuclear war causes rapid cooling and ozone disruption, collapses the economy, and spills over to other hot spots**
 * Hayes & Hamel-Green, 10** – *Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development, AND **Executive Dean of the Faculty of Arts, Education and Human Development act Victoria University (1/5/10, Executive Dean at Victoria, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia,” [])**

The international community is increasingly … consideration from the international community.

Withdrawing troops is the best response to North Korea’s perception of U.S. weakness – stops it from drawing U.S. forces into a wider conflict Stanton, 10** – U.S. Army Judge Advocate in Korea from 98-02 and practicing attorney in Washington, D.C. (4/12/10, Joshua, The New Ledger, “It's Time for the U.S. Army to Leave Korea,” [], JMP) **


 * Proceeding against the advice of …, aligns with the correct result. **

Withdrawal will motivate South Korea and China to stabilize and de-nuclearize the peninsula Erickson, 10** – Executive Director of CenterMovement.org (5/6/10, Stephen, “End the Cold War in Korea: Bring American Troops Home Before it’s Too Late,” [], JMP) **


 * On the night of March 26 … __home before it’s too late.__**

Withdrawal will spur peaceful negotiations and inter-Korean peace Feffer, 04** – contributor to Foreign Policy In Focus and the author of //North Korea, South Korea: U.S. Policy at a Time of Crisis// (6/23/04, John, “Bring Our Troops Home (from Korea),” [], JMP) **


 * The vortex of Korean politics can make even Donald Rumsfeld sound like the most radical Korean peace activist. "After the cold war," he declared on June 3, "U.S. forces have been stationed in South Korea for too long." The occasion was the announcement of the largest U.S. troop reductions from the Korean peninsula since the Korean War armistice, which took place 51 years ago this month. The Pentagon is withdrawing one-third of its forces from South Korea and sending a portion of them to Iraq. **
 * Since this announcement comes at a … **
 * Although they have only a minor … __the benefits outweigh the costs.__**
 * Beset on all sides for its Iraq policy, the Bush administration needs a foreign policy victory. It needs to demonstrate that it isn't ignoring the Korean peninsula. And it needs to show the world that the United States, if only after 51 years, does eventually bring home its troops. **

Advantage 2 is Regionalism

U.S. alliance relationships are unsustainable – … and stop major power domination Francis, 06** – former Australian Ambassador to Croatia and fellow at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University from 05-06 (Fall 2006, Neil, Harvard International Review, “For an East Asian Union: Rethinking Asia's Cold War Alliances,” [], JMP) **


 * At the conclusion of the … a strong, independent East Asian Union. **

Regionalism is currently halfhearted – only a __…__ motivate __sustainable__ regional security cooperation Carpenter and Bandow 4 - * ** Vice President of Defense and Foreign Studies at the Cato Institute, AND **Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute ** ( ** Ted Galen Carpenter, 12/2004, The Korean Conundrum: America’s Troubled Relations With North and South Korea, pg 160-161)DR

__The security treaties with the … **and defend their own interests.**__

**Specifically, withdrawal will reduce Korea’s veto of multilateral security mechanisms – yielding a peace system on the peninsula that prevents great power war**
 * Lee, 09** – Seoul National University (December 2009, Geun, “The Nexus between Korea’s Regional Security Options and Domestic Politics,” [|www.cfr.org], JMP)

Korea’s Option of Multilateral Security Cooperation in Northeast Asia The idea of multilateral security … __form of the U.S.-Korea alliance.__

Can the U.S. live with the … the Eagle to head home.
 * Accelerating U.S. withdrawal is key to catalyze a multipolar balance of power in the region and pave the way for an off-shore balancing strategy.**
 * Espiritu, 06** – Commander, U.S. Navy (3/15/06, Commander Emilson M. Espiritu, “The Eagle Heads Home: Rethinking National Security Policy for The Asia-Pacific Region,” [], JMP)


 * Independently, U.S. presence saps South Korea’s desire to develop its own independent defense and diplomatic strategy and boost morale to effectively deter North Korea**
 * Wook-Sik, 06** – representative of the Civil Network for a Peaceful Korea (Cheong, 4/4/06, “ROK-U.S. Alliance: More Harm Than Good” [])

Considering all these figures, we … __of its alliance with America.__


 * Strengthening the East Asian regional security architecture key to solve terrorism, territorial disputes, disease, environmental degradation, and maritime security**
 * Nanto, 08** – Specialist in Industry and Trade Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division for Congressional Research Services (1/4, “East Asian Regional Architecture: New Economic and Security Arrangements and U.S. Policy,” www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33653.pdf)

__A stronger **regional security organization** …__ will exist in the future.


 * Territorial disputes draw in great powers --- causes World War 3**
 * Waldron, 97** – professor of strategy and policy at the U.S. Naval War College and an associate of the Fairbank Center for East Asian Research at Harvard (March 1997, Arthur, Commentary, “How Not to Deal with China,” EBSCO)

__MAKING THESE flash-points all … Japan--or the__ __U __ nited __S __ tates.


 * Advantage 3 is South Korean Defense**

South Korea is free-riding – defense spending is tiny
Bennett 10--- (Bruce, Senior Policy Analyst – RAND Corporation, “S. Korea’s Military Capability ‘Inadequate’”, Chosun Ilbo, 1-29, http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/01/29/2010012900705.html)

An American academic says __ South … __ __Korea's catastrophic threats," he added.__


 * Plan prompts South Korean conventional force modernization which allows it to deter Chinese aggression**
 * Bandow, 09** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to Reagan (6/16/09, Doug, “A Tattered Umbrella,” http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=21606, JMP)

South Korea’s foreign minister reports … dispute into an international crisis.

Chinese rise makes multiple regional conflicts inevitable – only ROK conventional deterrence solves
McDevitt 8 (Michael, Rear Admiral – US Navy (Ret.), Center for Naval Analyses, “Asian Military Modernization: Key Areas of Concern”, 6-4, http://www.iiss.org/conferences/global-strategic-challenges-as-played-out-in-asia/asias-strategic-challenges-in-search-of-a-common-agenda/conference-papers/fourth-session-an-asian-arms-race/asian-military-modernization-key-areas-of-concern-michael-mcdevitt/) __ Military modernization __ goes on continuously … will fuel the capabilities competition.


 * Chinese aggression against Taiwan will escalate and go nuclear**
 * Adams, 09** – reporter for global post and newsweek on China and Taiwan (3/31/09, Jonathon, Global Post, “The dragon sharpens its claws,” http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/china-and-its-neighbors/090331/the-dragon-sharpens-its-claws )

TAIPEI — It's the stuff of … **__and the rising Asian giant.__**

Escalation is likely – impact is full-scale US/China nuclear war
Dodge 5 (Paul, Department of Defense and Strategic Studies – Missouri State University, “China’s Naval Strategy and Nuclear Weapons: The Risks of Intentional and Inadvertent Nuclear Escalation”, Comparative Strategy, 24(5), December, p. 415-416)

In the summer of 2005, Chinese … warfighting strategy may be revealed.

(Ching Cheong, The Straits Times, “No one gains in war over Taiwan,” 6-25-2000, Lexis-Nexis Universe)
 * THE IMPACT IS Extinction**
 * Cheong, 2000** – East Asia Correspondent

__A cross-strait conflict, even … puts sovereignty above everything else.__

There are no prior questions to problem oriented IR- empirical validity is a sufficient justification for action. Emphasis on metaphysical hurdles destroys any chance of effectively describing the world and guiding action David Owen,  Reader of Political Theory at the Univ. of Southampton, Millennium Vol 31 No 3 200  2  p. 655-7
 * Debate should only include discussions that are policy relevant—K’s don’t relate to politics are therefore useless**
 * Nye 09** (Joseph Nye**,** professor at Harvard University and former dean of the Harvard Kennedy School., BA suma cum laude Princeton, PhD Harvard, Former Chair National Intelligence Council, Former Asst. Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, you know who he is, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/12/AR2009041202260_pf.html 4-13-09)


 * Advantage 3 is South Korean Defense**

South Korea is free-riding – defense spending is tiny
Bennett 10--> (Bruce, Senior Policy Analyst – RAND Corporation, “S. Korea’s Military Capability ‘Inadequate’”, Chosun Ilbo, 1-29, http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/01/29/2010012900705.html)

An American academic says __ South … __ __ Korea 's catastrophic threats," he added.__


 * Plan prompts South Korean conventional force modernization which allows it to deter Chinese aggression**
 * Bandow, 09** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to Reagan (6/16/09, Doug, “A Tattered Umbrella,” http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=21606, JMP)

South Korea’s foreign minister reports … dispute into an international crisis.

** Plan prompts South Korean conventional force modernization which allows it to deter Chinese aggression   ** ** Bandow, 09 ** – Senior Fellow at the CATO institute

Chinese rise makes multiple regional conflicts inevitable – only ROK conventional deterrence solves McDevitt 8 (Michael, Rear Admiral – US Navy (Ret.), Center for Naval Analyses, “Asian Military Modernization: Key Areas of Concern”, 6-4, []) Chinese aggression against Taiwan will escalate and go nuclear Adams, 09 – reporter for global post and newsweek on China and Taiwan (3/31/09, Jonathon, Global Post, “The dragon sharpens its claws,” http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/china-and-its-neighbors/090331/the-dragon-sharpens-its-claws )

Chinese rise makes multiple regional conflicts inevitable – only ROK conventional deterrence solves
McDevitt 8 (Michael, Rear Admiral – US Navy (Ret.), Center for Naval Analyses, “Asian Military Modernization: Key Areas of Concern”, 6-4, http://www.iiss.org/conferences/global-strategic-challenges-as-played-out-in-asia/asias-strategic-challenges-in-search-of-a-common-agenda/conference-papers/fourth-session-an-asian-arms-race/asian-military-modernization-key-areas-of-concern-michael-mcdevitt/) __ Military modernization __ goes on continuously … will fuel the capabilities competition.


 * Chinese aggression against Taiwan will escalate and go nuclear**
 * Adams, 09** – reporter for global post and newsweek on China and Taiwan (3/31/09, Jonathon, Global Post, “The dragon sharpens its claws,” http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/china-and-its-neighbors/090331/the-dragon-sharpens-its-claws )

TAIPEI — It's the stuff of … **__ and the rising Asian giant. __**

Escalation is likely – impact is full-scale US/China nuclear war
Dodge 5 (Paul, Department of Defense and Strategic Studies – Missouri State University, “China’s Naval Strategy and Nuclear Weapons: The Risks of Intentional and Inadvertent Nuclear Escalation”, Comparative Strategy, 24(5), December, p. 415-416)

In the summer of 2005, Chinese … warfighting strategy may be revealed.

(Ching Cheong, The Straits Times, “No one gains in war over Taiwan,” 6-25-2000, Lexis-Nexis Universe)
 * THE IMPACT IS Extinction**
 * Cheong, 2000** – East Asia Correspondent

__A cross-strait conflict, even … puts sovereignty above everything else.__