Srinidhi+and+Azhar


 * CONTENTION ONE IS KOREAN CONFLICT**


 * We’ll isolate two internal links –**


 * A Subpoint is Tensions –**

Suspicions continue to mount that North Korea torpedoed the Cheonan…………That Washington took military command in underdeveloped, impoverished South Korea in 1950 is understandable. To argue that America must continue doing so in 2010 is bizarre.
 * U.S. presence facilitates tensions on the peninsula encouraging North Korean provocations –means the US gets drawn in**
 * Bandow, 10 ** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (5/3/10, Doug, “Taming Pyongyang,” [], JMP)


 * This means Korean conflict is the most probable scenario – tensions make all-out war possible **
 * Powell 10 ** (**5/26/10 ** Bill Powell works for Time Magizine. “War on the Korean Peninsula: Thinking the Unthinkable.” http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1991928,00.html)

__"A symphony of death." That's the chilling phrase that Kurt Campbell, who is now Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs ………__ China's Prime Minister, Wen Jiabao, will head to Seoul on Friday for talks with Lee. North Korea will dominate that discussion. Let's hope they figure out how to keep Pyongyang in the loop.


 * Even if a conflict won’t start __intentionally__, high tensions risk __accidents__ that __escalate__ to global nuclear war**
 * Stratfor, 10 ** (5/26/10, “North Korea, South Korea: The Military Balance on the Peninsula,” [], JMP)

Managing Escalation But __no one, of course, ……….. they might be if the situation escalates much__


 * The status quo is different – nuclear use is likely and deterrence won’t solve**
 * Chung, 10 ** – Visiting Professor at the School of International Relations, Nanyang Technological University and former Professor of international relations at Seoul National University (6/1/10, Chung Chong Wook, “The Korean Crisis: Going Beyond the Cheonan Incident,” http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/Perspective/RSIS0352010.pdf)

The sinking of the Cheonan, for which South Korea blames Pyongyang, ……….. of how the situation is perceived. Despite all these ominous developments, however, premature pessimism is not advisable.


 * Reinforcing deterrence makes __miscalculation__ likely**
 * Armstrong, 10 –** Professor of history and director of the Center for Korean Research at Columbia University (Charles, 5/26/10, CNN, “The Korean War never ended” [])

New York (CNN) -- The Korean War began 60 years ago on June 25, 1950, and it still hasn't ended. …….. since 2008, as a way of reducing tensions on the Korean peninsula. It is time to end the Korean War, not start it anew.


 * Withdrawing __ground troops__ solves – stops North Korea from probing U.S. weakness to draw our forces into a wider conflict. Air and naval installations will maintain power projection capabilities.**
 * Stanton, 10 ** – U.S. Army Judge Advocate in Korea from 98-02 and practicing attorney in Washington, D.C. (4/12/10, Joshua, The New Ledger, “It's Time for the U.S. Army to Leave Korea,” [], JMP)

Proceeding against the advice of my cardiologist, I must concede that for once, Ron Paul is …………. an imbecile. This is just one occasion in which he inadvertently, in the fashion of a stopped clock, aligns with the correct result.


 * Withdrawal spurs peaceful negotiations and inter-Korean peace**
 * Feffer, 04 ** – contributor to Foreign Policy In Focus and the author of //North Korea, South Korea: U.S. Policy at a Time of Crisis// (6/23/04, John, “Bring Our Troops Home (from Korea),” [], JMP)

The vortex of Korean politics can make even Donald Rumsfeld sound like the most ……….. show the world that the United States, if only after 51 years, does eventually bring home its troops.


 * B subpoint is Succession –**


 * A massive power struggle is underway in North Korea – warring factions facilitate several avenues for conflict**
 * Bandow, 6/9 ** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (6/9/10, Doug, The Daily Caller, “Confronting North Korea: Who’s in charge?” http://dailycaller.com/2010/06/09/confronting-north-korea-whos-in-charge/, JMP)

We see through a glass darkly, said the Apostle Paul, and that is certainly the case when it comes to North Korea………..America could help as they search for a solution. But North Korea truly is their problem far more than Washington’s problem.

[], JMP) President George W. Bush famously said that he “loathed” North Korea’s Kim Jong-il. Yet the United States might come to miss the brutal dictator, with his abundant gut and bouffant hair. Resolving the North Korean nuclear crisis through diplomacy was never going to be easy; ……….. At the same time, however, policy makers must realistically assess the future. The United States and North Korea’s neighbors had better prepare for the possibility of an even more unsettled and dangerous future.
 * Succession politics makes provocations __more likely and dangerous__ and crushes chance of effective engagement to rollback North Korea’s nuclear program**
 * Bandow, 09 ** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (7/29/09, Doug, “Kim’s Heir,”

**Kim Jong Un needs political victories to ensure a stable succession process – he’s using military provocations to try and win support of the military** **Lee, 10 ** (5/27/10, Jean H., writer for the Associated Press, The Associated Press, “Analysis: Attack May Be Tied to NKorean Succession”, http://www.lexisnexis.com) Young, inexperienced and virtually unknown even at home, Kim Jong Un **needs** **at least a few political victories ** under his belt <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">if he is to succeed his father as leader of ……….. world leaders into a huddle on how to avert war, he <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">may finally <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">have a reason to make his political debut <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 7pt;">.

**Even if succession is smooth, regime collapse is inevitable and destabilizes the region** //**<span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-style: normal;">Meyers, 10 **////<span style="font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 8pt; font-style: normal;"> – professor at Dongseo University in South Korea (3/26/10, B.R. Meyers, “ North Korea on the Edge; If the regime collapses, will the rest of the world be ready?” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704100604575145672974954144.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_RIGHTTopCarousel) //

As for __tensions__ with the south, they __rose again__ Friday __with the sinking of a South Korean naval ship near a disputed maritime border with North Korea,__ ………..we should focus our contingency planning on a worst-case nuclear scenario instead of fretting about Beijing's role on a post-Kim peninsula. A Chinese occupation of North Korea should be the least of our worries.


 * The plan solves by motivating China and South Korea to effectively influence the leadership transition**
 * <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">Bandow, 0<span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">8 ** – Fellow at the American Conservative Defense Alliance and former special assistant to Reagan (9/15/08, Doug, “Dear Leader Goes South,” http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=19868, JMP)

Two men have ruled the northern half of the Korean peninsula for sixty-three years. ……….. **__an uncertain <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">leadership transition in Pyongyang <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">to others in the region, most importantly <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">South Korea and China .__**


 * Chinese involvement is key to stabilize Korea – prevents violent collapse, military response by South Korea, North Korea nuclearization and allied proliferation**
 * <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">Bandow, 10 ** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (5/3/10, Doug, “Taming Pyongyang,” http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=23336, JMP)

Second, the United States, South Korea and Japan must develop a unified approach to China ………..the risk is real. And unacceptable. The incident should impel a serious rethinking of the current U.S.-ROK alliance as well as the strategy for involving China in the North Korean issue.

**Succession crisis makes conflict inevitable**
 * <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-family: 'Georgia','serif';">Foster-Carter 10 ****<span style="font-family: 'Georgia','serif';"> – ** senior research fellow in sociology and modern Korea at Leeds University, and a freelance consultant, writer and broadcaster on Korean affairs. **<span style="font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-weight: normal;">(6/18/10, **Aidan Foster-Carter, “A North Korean leadership car crash” ttp://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/LF18Dg01.html)

__<span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">Succession is the Achilles' heel of dictatorships __, for obvious reasons. In extreme cases, such as North Korea, ……….. __Beijing yearns for a nice pliant client in Pyongyang, one who would do the sensible thing and stop causing trouble.__


 * North Korean aggression and nuclearization causes intentional, miscalculated, or accidental nuclear conflict – even a limited nuclear war causes cooling and ozone disruption, collapses the economy, and spills over to other hot spots**
 * <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">Hayes & Hamel-Green, 10 ** – *Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development, AND ** Executive Dean of the Faculty of Arts, Education and Human Development act Victoria University (1/5/10, Executive Dean at Victoria, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia,” http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf )

The international community is increasingly aware that cooperative diplomacy is the most productive way to tackle the multiple, interconnected global challenges facing humanity, not least of which is the increasing proliferation of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction………..The Korean nuclear proliferation issue is not just a regional threat but a global one that warrants priority consideration from the international community.


 * And it turns regional conflicts into __global__ ones**
 * <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">Bandow, 0<span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">5 ** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (Fall 2005, Doug, National Interest, “Seoul Searching,” vol. 81, EBSCO, JMP)

Alliance advocates are searching for a new raison d'être for a Cold War relic. ……….. __<span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">forces __ necessary to guarantee their own security.

This report examines North Korea’s chemical and biological weapons capabilities in the context of its military doctrine and national objectives ……….. __<span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">This strategy <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">poses a significant <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">danger because it risks **deliberate, accidental or unauthorised WMD attacks or incidents.** __
 * Conventional weaknesses force North Korea to use CBW’s – either deliberate, accidental or unathorized**
 * <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">ICG, 0<span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">9 ** (6/18/09, International Crisis Group, “North Korea’s Chemical and Biological Weapons Programs,” [], JMP)


 * North Korean bioweapon use would __spread globally__ within __six weeks__ – greater risk that nuclear weapons**
 * <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">Levy, 0<span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">7 ** (6-8-07, Janet Ellen, The American Thinking, “The Threat of Bioweapons,” [], JMP)

Immediately following 9-11, an anthrax attack originating from letters containing anthrax spores infected 22 people, killing five. After almost six years, the case has not been solved. ……….. and can be rapidly deployed, activated and impossible to trace. The technology to develop biological agents is widely available for legitimate purposes and large quantities can be developed within days.


 * Extinction**
 * <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">Ochs ** **0<span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">2 ** – MA in Natural Resource Management from Rutgers University and Naturalist at Grand Teton National Park [Richard, “BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS MUST BE ABOLISHED IMMEDIATELY,” Jun 9, http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html]

__Of all the weapons of mass destruction, the genetically engineered <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">bio logical <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">weapons ,__ ……….. The egos of leaders must not blind us. The adrenaline and vengeance of a fight must not blind us. The game is over. If patriotism would extinguish humanity, then patriotism is the highest of all crimes.

Throughout the 50-year alliance the United States and the ROK have continually readjusted the conditions and terms of the alliance……….. __<span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">On a daily basis <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">the DPRK news agency website runs editorials calling for a “Death-defying fight against the United States.”__ 3
 * And, our impacts are NOT constructed – DPRK rhetoric proves our arguments**
 * <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">Wallace 4 ** – Colonel of the US army (Joseph K., 5/3, “TRANSFORMING DETERRENCE ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA”, []) *note: the footnotes from 1 and 2 are from Homer T. Hodge, a Senior Intelligence Officer for Asia at the US Army National, footnote 3 is from the DPNK news agency


 * Thus we offer the following Plan: The United States federal government should implement a phased withdrawal of its ground troops in the Republic of Korea.**


 * __CONTENTION TWO IS MULTILATERALISM__**


 * A Subpoint is East Asian Regionalism:**


 * U.S. alliance relationships are unsustainable – Asian powers should develop a regional security strategy that __does not__ rely on the U.S.**
 * <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">Francis, 06 ** – former Australian Ambassador to Croatia and fellow at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University from 05-06 (Fall 2006, Neil, Harvard International Review, “For an East Asian Union: Rethinking Asia's Cold War Alliances,” [], JMP)

At the conclusion of the Second World War, the United States established bilateral military alliances in the Asia-Pacific intended to contain Soviet and Chinese communist expansion in the region. ……….. The determining factor will be ASEAN’s ability to provide the leadership necessary to create a strong, independent East Asian Union.

** Regionalism is currently halfhearted – only a __clear sign__ of U.S. withdrawal can motivate __sustainable__ regional security cooperation ** **<span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10.5pt; letter-spacing: 0.05pt;">Carpenter and Bandow 4 **** - * ** Vice President of Defense and Foreign Studies at the Cato Institute, AND ** Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute ** ( ** Ted Galen Carpenter, 12/2004, The Korean Conundrum: America’s Troubled Relations With North and South Korea, pg 160-161)DR

The security treaties with the United States and the U.S. troop presence allow the diversion of financial resources to domestic priorities. ……….. **<span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">America still <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">can have a potent <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">power projection capability <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">with a <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">reduced military presence based in Guam and <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">other U.S. territories in the central and west-central Pacific.**


 * Specially, withdrawal will reduce Korea’s veto of multilateral security mechanisms – yielding a peace system on the peninsula that prevents great power war**
 * <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">Lee, 09 ** – Seoul National University (December 2009, Geun, “The Nexus between Korea’s Regional Security Options and Domestic Politics,” [|www.cfr.org], JMP)

Korea’s Option of Multilateral Security Cooperation in Northeast Asia The idea of multilateral security cooperation in Northeast Asia is not a recent one. __Since__ 19 __88__, ………..Moreover, **__<span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">if the <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">U.S. capability and credibility in delivering its security promises to alliance partners <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">are questioned , <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">there will be fewer veto powers in Korean politics against a multilateral security <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">mechanism in Northeast Asia__**__, particularly when such an option still maintains a loose form of the U.S.-Korea alliance.__


 * Strengthening the East Asian regional security architecture solves territorial disputes and a bunch of other impacts**
 * <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">Nanto, 08 ** – Specialist in Industry and Trade Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division for Congressional Research Services (1/4, “East Asian Regional Architecture: New Economic and Security Arrangements and U.S. Policy,” www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33653.pdf)

__<span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">A stronger **<span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">regional security organization ** in East Asia <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">could play a role in <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">quell ing <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">terrorism __ by violent extremists. ………... A metric by which any architecture can be evaluated, however, is how well it contributes to a resolution of problems as they now exist or will exist in the future.


 * Territorial disputes draw in great powers --- causes World War 3**
 * <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">Waldron, 97 ** – professor of strategy and policy at the U.S. Naval War College and an associate of the Fairbank Center for East Asian Research at Harvard (March 1997, Arthur, Commentary, “How Not to Deal with China,” EBSCO)

__MAKING THESE flash-points all the more volatile has been <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">a dramatic increase in the quantity and quality of China's weapons acquisitions.__ ……….., Muslims, or Mongolians living inside China. __<span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">Chains of alliance __ __or interest, perhaps not clearly understood until the moment of crisis itself**, <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">could easily draw in neighboring states-- **<span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">Russia, or India<span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">, or Japan--or the __ __<span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0in;">U __ nited __<span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: lime none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0in;">S __ tates


 * B Subpoint is Russian Economics**


 * U.S. military concessions toward North Korea are critical to break the deadlock in the six party talks. This will provide a framework to re-establish US-Russian relations, stabilize the peninsula, and allow Russia to become a major economic player in the region.**
 * Toloraya, 08** – diplomat with the rank of Minister and Director of Korean Programs at IMEMO, the top Russian Foreign Ministry official in charge of the Korean peninsula, Doctor of Economy and a Full Professor degree in Oriental Studies (Georgy, //Asian Perspective,// “ **<span style="font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 8pt; font-weight: normal;">THE SIX PARTY TALKS: A RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE”, ProQuest) **

__<span style="font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">The real root of the controversy, as Russian experts interpret it, is the fact that no "strategic decision" has yet been taken __<span style="font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 8pt;">in either capital about the future. ……….. __In this era of uncertainty of world finance, the development of the real estate sector is fast becoming a priority, and this means an increased need for Russia’s greater involvement in Northeast Asian regional energy and industrial projects.__ **Independently, peaceful US overtures toward Korea is critical to break the deadlock in Russian-DPRK relations and pave the way for a massive expansion of renewed economic ties on the peninsula** **Joo, 09** – Professor of Political Science at the University of Michigan (April 09, Seung-Horris, “Moscow–Pyongyang Relations under Kim Jong-il: High Hopes and Sober Reality”)

Trade and Investment In the late 1980s, North Korea's trade with the Soviet Union and its affiliates constituted three-quarters of North Korea's total trade volume. Bilateral trade between Pyongyang and Moscow sharply dropped from approximately $US1bn in 1989–90 to $US80m in the mid-1990s. ……….. . By the same token, North Korea has become highly dependent on China in political and economic terms, and Russia will have tough time competing with China. The onset of a mini-Cold War between the USA and Russia may lead to a rekindling of intimate relations between Moscow and Pyongyang, but this scenario is unlikely. What is more likely is a complete immobilization or a sudden death due to serious illness of Kim Jong-il. What impact this eventuality will have on Moscow–Pyongyang relations will be anybody's guess. No matter what happens, Russia will have a long way to go before it is recognized as a major political–economic player in Korea and Northeast Asia. Institute of State Governance and the Yonsei Leadership Center (Nov/Dec, Seung Ham Yang, Woosang Kim, and Yongho Kim, “RUSSO-NORTH KOREAN RELATIONS IN THE 2000S”, Proquest)
 * These increased ties are key to creating a trans-Siberian railroad that revitalizes the Asian and Russian economies**
 * Yang et al. 04**- Yang is Professor of Political Science at Yonsei University in Seoul, Korea, and Director of the

__Improved relations with North Korea would generate an opportunity to engage economically on the Korean Peninsula, by participating__, for example, __in__ future __projects linking Russia with the two Koreas. Specifically, Russia is interested in participating in the Trans-Siberian Railroad__ (TSR) __project.__ ……….. we address the notion that security still functions as one of the main factors in the Moscow-Pyongyang relationship.


 * A Russian economic collapse will trigger nuclear strikes against the US, provoke a Russo-Sino war, and threaten the world with an accidental launch**
 * David 99 –** Professor of Political Science at John Hopkins University [Steven R., “Saving America from the Coming Civil Wars,” //Foreign Affairs,// Jan/Feb, LN]

__ If internal war does strike Russia, economic deterioration will be a prime cause __ __. __ ……….. . For  __ Russia __ , America must reduce the chances that  __ civil __ __ conflict __ there __ will unleash nuclear weapons against the United States. __