Aff


 * idk whats going on w this wiki if you're looking for peeples-mcmillan cites just email me at masonwpeeples@gmail.com**


 * taiwan arms sales 1ac**

The risk of a US-China war over Taiwan is high. Blocking independence is China's core national interest and outweighs economic ties
Kuntić, 15 – visiting fellow at European Union Centre in Taiwan, National Taiwan University; PhD candidate at the Faculty of Political Science, University of Zagreb (Dario, "The Ominous Triangle: China-Taiwan-the United States relationship" CIRR XXI (72) 2015, 239-280) As Taiwan is important to both China and the United States, conflict of interests AND bonds of commerce, trade, and military ties between the two powers.

The DPP's election means Taiwan is moving towards de jure independence with US backing
Yin, 6/8/16 - Yin Chengde is a research fellow of China Foundation for International Studies ("Time for US to Change Its Taiwan Policy" http://www.chinausfocus.com/political-social-development/time-for-us-to-change-its-taiwan-policy/ The pro-independence DPP has returned to power in Taiwan. Despite repeated warnings AND of the Taiwan Strait and for the benefit of the US itself too.

That enraged China which just ended relations with Taiwan
Tiezzi, 6/26/16 - Shannon Tiezzi is Editor at The Diplomat. Her main focus is on China, and she writes on China's foreign relations, domestic politics, and economy. Shannon previously served as a research associate at the U.S.-China Policy Foundation ("Did China Just Kill Cross-Strait Relations?" The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2016/06/did-china-just-kill-cross-strait-relations/ Well before Taiwan held its elections on January 20, Beijing made it clear that AND more damage done to cross-strait relations than either side can fix.

And the recent accidental launch is contributing to increasingly tense China-Taiwan relations
(CNN)A Taiwan warship mistakenly launched a supersonic "aircraft carrier killer" AND , whose party has traditionally leaned in favor of formal independence from China.
 * Guerrero 7/1**, (Kay, 7/1/16, Taiwan accidentally launches missile toward China, kills fishing boat captain, CNN, http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/01/asia/taiwan-fires-missile-on-china/index.html)//kap

Nationalist pressure and nuclear insecurity make the risk of war high and nuclear escalation probable
Glaser, 15 - Charles L Glaser is a professor in the Elliott School of International Affairs and the Department of Political Science at George Washington University. He is also a fellow in the Kissinger Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars ("A U.S.-China Grand Bargain?" International Security, Vol. 39, No. 4 (Spring 2015), pp. 49–90, doi:10.1162/ISEC_a_00199 Although a number of regional sovereignty and maritime disputes have the potential to sour the AND Party] is finding it increasingly difficult to justify its weak responses."67

====Risk of war is growing in the Taiwan strait- The PRC is unsatisfied with Tsai's promises of sticking to the status quo on ambiguous relations—greater reassurances are necessary to preserve cross-strait relations==== Tsai Ing-wen's Policy toward China During the presidential campaign, Tsai Ing- AND the term "cross-Strait" instead of China-Taiwan.11
 * Glaser 2016** (Bonnie, Senior Adviser for Asia and Director, China Power Project, she is concomitantly a non-resident fellow with the Lowy Institute in Sydney, a senior associate with CSIS Pacific Forum and a consultant for the U.S. government on East Asia, prior she served as a consultant for various U.S. government offices, including the Departments of Defense and State, "Prospects for Cross-Strait Relations as Tsai Ing-wen Assumes the Presidency in Taiwan," April, 2016, A Report of the CSIS CHINA POWER PROJECT, Center for Strategic and International Studies, https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/160418_Glaser_ProspectsCrossStraitRelations_Web.pdf, silbs)

Arms sales ensure regional instability, makes conflict inevitable, and destroys regional stability
Xiao, This article was first published in Chinese and translated by Chen Boyuan, US' arms sales to Taiwan impede Sino-US relationship, http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2013-01/17/content_27716480.htm, msm U.S. arms sales to Taiwan not only directly harm China's essential interest AND can the China-US relationship develop in a stable and smooth manner.
 * An 1-17-13**

US-China nuclear war over Taiwan likely now – deterrence and nfu don't apply
Littlefield and Lowther 15, Alex Littlefield is Senior Editor at Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, Adam Lowther is a Research Professor at the Air Force Research Institute (AFRI) at Maxwell Air Force Base, (8/11/15, Taiwan and the Prospects for War Between China and America, The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/taiwan-and-the-prospects-for-war-between-china-and-america/)//kap For the United States and its allies and partners in Asia, China's aggressive efforts AND – the PRC will see the situation very differently than the United States.

Causes nuclear war that wipes out all life on the planet
While nuclear weapons exist, there remains a danger that they will be used. AND that of the world, they should be working to encourage these policies.
 * Wittner 11** - (Lawrence S. Wittner, Emeritus Professor of History at the State University of New York at Albany, holds a Ph.D. in History from Columbia University, 2011"Is a Nuclear War with China Possible?," Huntington News, November 28th, Available Online at http://www.huntingtonnews.net/14446)

Economic and cultural ties don't check – poor political relations outweigh
Taiwan and China have the most unique bilateral relationship in the world. The two AND conflict between the two sides threatens to spillback, negatively effecting economic relations.
 * Wen-cheng '5**
 * (Lin Wen-cheng, Dean of Social Sciences at National Sun Yat-sen University and Executive Director of the Institute for National Policy Research in Taiwan, December 2005, "Cross-strait Confidence Building Measures," p. 1, JH)**

Miscalculation in the strait is the most probable cause of nuclear war – strategic mistrust makes escalation likely
Lowther, 13 – citing a CSIS report (William, Tapei Times, 3/16, "Taiwan could spark nuclear war: report," http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2013/03/16/2003557211) Taiwan is the most likely potential crisis that could trigger a nuclear war between China AND arsenals, such a conflict would be tremendously dangerous and quite possibly devastating."

The aff solves miscalculation- a reduction in arms sales allows adverse impacts to be avoided
Lowther 15- William, staff writer, Beijing 'too passive' over Taiwan: Chinese analysts, (http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2015/04/25/2003616749) JB Swaine is described by Carnegie as "one of the most prominent American analysts in AND adverse outcomes, including a resort to nuclear weapons, could be avoided.

1ac- plan
====Plan: The United States federal government should offer to the People's Republic of China (PRC) a staged agreement consisting of restrictions on United States arms sales in return for verifiable limit on PRC military production and deployment relevant to the Republic of China (ROC) and a promise that the PRC will not use force against the ROC. ====

China says yes to greater diplomatic engagement; it's verifiable and won't destabilize relations with Taiwan or Asia
Swaine, 11 – senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and one of the most prominent American analysts in Chinese security studies (Michael, America's Challenge: Engaging a Rising China in the Twenty-First Century, p. 359-363 Under such circumstances, avoiding future escalating Sino-American crises over People's Liberation Army AND also not inconceivable that Beijing would permit or provide convincing levels of verification.

Even if China says no, the plan boosts US resolve and reinforces regional alliances
Glaser, 15 - Charles L Glaser is a professor in the Elliott School of International Affairs and the Department of Political Science at George Washington University. He is also a fellow in the Kissinger Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars ("A U.S.-China Grand Bargain?" International Security, Vol. 39, No. 4 (Spring 2015), pp. 49–90, doi:10.1162/ISEC_a_00199 The preceding assessment lays bare the complexity of a U.S. policy of AND East Asia, increasing U.S. capabilities would enhance its security.

Reducing arms sales to Taiwan facilitates dialogue between China, Taiwan, and the US which would lower the possibility of conflict
Swaine 03- Michael, expert in China and East Asian security studies and a Senior Associate in the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, China, Reverse Course? The Fragile Turnaround in U.S.–China Relations, (http://carnegieendowment.org/files/Policybrief22.pdf) JB The Bush administration and Congress must recognize that, despite the current improvement in relations AND relations. This potential opening should be fully explored by the Bush administration.

The plan solves for all possible alt causes to effective cross-strait relations and confidence building measures
Swaine 11- Michael, expert in China and East Asian security studies and a Senior Associate in the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, America's Challenge: Engaging a Rising China in the Twenty-First Century, (Washington: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) JB The feasibility and parameters of such an agreement could be initially explored via an authorized AND the most advanced and "high-impact" technologies and weapons systems.

Reducing arms sales are key—solves US-Sino relations, China-Taiwan relations, and strengthens the overall trilateral relationship
Arms sale: "the biggest obstacle" 6.1 Ever since Sino- AND proposal to minimize the potentially negative impact of arms sales on trilateral relations.
 * Jianwei 2009** (Wang, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at EAI, "THE UNITED STATES AND NEW DYNAMICS IN CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS," National University of Singapore, 2009, silbs)

Relations are improving but the biggest problem is continued arms sales—prevents military CBMs between China and Taiwan to resolve structural mistrust
1. AND opposed either side unilaterally changing the status quo, as defined by the United States.
 * Jianwei 2009** (Wang, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at EAI, "THE UNITED STATES AND NEW DYNAMICS IN CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS," National University of Singapore, 2009, silbs)
 * we don't endorse this author's use of ableist language**