Ella+&+Simone

We're running Law of the Sea for the Camp Tournament-- Prior to this we've run Aquaculture, OTEC, and the Walt Whitman Aff -Ella

=LOST--1AC=

Arctic
The __Arctic’s____unfavorable__ weather and __climate__ conditions have produced one of the most inhospitable environments AND __to ratify__ the Convention __to preserve its right to influence the Arctic’s future.__
 * Advantage 1 is the Icy Wasteland**
 * Two Scenarios:**
 * First is resources – US adherence to LOST in the Arctic is inevitable, however ratification is key to resource access – the alternative is energy dependence and high vulnerability to price shocks**
 * Kolcz-Ryan, 09** – Marta, University of Dayton (“AN ARCTIC RACE: HOW THE UNITED STATES’ FAILURE TO RATIFY THE LAW OF THE SEA CONVENTION COULD ADVERSELY AFFECT ITS INTERESTS IN THE ARCTIC,” University of Dayton Law Review, vol 35, no 1, [] //blue)

Maritime natural resource exploitation – from oil and natural gas to seabed minerals – has AND __exerting political and economic leverage__ over the United States and its allies. 22
 * Only ratification solves – legal uncertainty absent lost creates a chilling effect that prevents resource utilization and endangers the economy**
 * Rogers, 12** – Will, Research Associate at the Center for a New American Security (“Security at Sea: The Case for Ratifying the Law of the Sea Convention,” Center for a New American Security, April 2012, [] //blue)

Increased Potential for Global Conflict Of course, the report encompasses more than economics and AND within and between states in a more dog-eat-dog world.
 * Econ decline causes global catastrophe and nuclear war**
 * Harris and Burrows, 9** – *counselor in the National Intelligence Council, the principal drafter of Global Trends 2025, **member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis”, Washington Quarterly, http://www.twq.com/09april/docs/09apr_burrows.pdf)

Less intuitive is how periods of __economic decline__ may __increase__ the __likelihood of__ external __conflict__ AND popularity, __are statistically linked to an increase in__ the use of __force__.
 * Statistics prove**
 * Royal 10** – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises,” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-214

__With the world's energy supplies finite, the US heavily dependent on imports__, and AND , or at least a big part of it, would have survived.
 * Energy dependence risks extinction**
 * Lendman 07 -** Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization. [Stephen Lendman, “Resource Wars - Can We Survive Them?,” rense.com, 6-6-7, pg. [] ]

The fact is, __the Arctic is becoming a zone of increased military competition__. AND __in which nuclear powers find themselves in military confrontation can be taken lightly__.
 * Second is conflict –** **war in the Arctic would go nuclear**
 * Wallace & Staples ‘10** – *Professor Emeritus at the University of British Columbia, **President of the Rideau Institute in Ottawa (Michael, Steven, “Ridding the Arctic of Nuclear Weapons: A Task Long Overdue,”) //J.N.E

Until recently, international strategic concern with the Arctic Ocean was limited to the comings AND __on the sidelines and the Arctic in danger of “uncontrolled pillage.”__ 25
 * LOST is key to resolve tensions and prevent environmental destruction**
 * King 7** – Andrew King is currently an associate at Archer Norris, a law corporation. Education: University of California, Hastings College of the Law, San Francisco, J.D., 2007 Witkin Awards for Excellence: Remedies; Mediation; and American West – Law, Culture & Environment CALI Excellence for the Future Award: Pretrial Practice Hastings Constitutional Law Quarterly, Member, 2005 - 2006 Best Moot Court Brief (2005); Best Moot Court Oralist, Honorable Mention (2005) University of York, York, England, B.A., with first class honors, 2000 Nominated for Royal Historical Society Prize for Undergraduate Dissertation (2007, Andrew, “Thawing a Frozen Treaty: Protecting United States Interests in the Arctic with a Congressional-Executive Agreement on the Law of the Sea”, http://www.hastingsconlawquarterly.org/archives/V34/I2/king.pdf - II. Renewed Interest in the Arctic Region and a Snapshot of Recent Territorial Claims // SM)

Planetary Keystone __The Arctic and the subarctic regions surrounding it are important for many reasons__ __AND__ __climate change, the Arctic is a keystone ecosystem for the entire planet.__
 * Arctic environment destruction causes extinction**
 * WWF** ** 10 ** (December 1, 2010 “Drilling for Oil in the Arctic: Too Soon, Too Risky” World Wildlife Fund [] ) zabd

The Arctic __The Arctic is emerging as one of the most important maritime domains__ in AND economic __cooperation and respect for rightful natural resource claims__ by all Arctic countries.
 * The plan solves both scenarios – LOST ratification allows US resource access and ensures cooperation and stability**
 * Rogers, 12** – Will, Research Associate at the Center for a New American Security (“Security at Sea: The Case for Ratifying the Law of the Sea Convention,” Center for a New American Security, April 2012, [] //blue)

As noted by John D. Negroponte during testimony before the Senate Committee, joining AND __resources is__ for the United States __to become__ a __party to the Convention.__
 * Ratification is key to resource development – no alternative ensures access**
 * Kolcz-Ryan, 09** – Marta, University of Dayton (“AN ARCTIC RACE: HOW THE UNITED STATES’ FAILURE TO RATIFY THE LAW OF THE SEA CONVENTION COULD ADVERSELY AFFECT ITS INTERESTS IN THE ARCTIC,” University of Dayton Law Review, vol 35, no 1, [] //blue)

South China Sea Advantage
Finally, __the United States will have a stronger hand when it comes to the__ __AND__ ed in the Wall Street Journal this past month asking for Senate ratification.
 * Advantage 2 is Deserted Islands**
 * Ratifying the LOST mediates the South China Sea and solves tensions.**
 * Hachigian 12**. Nina Hachigian, Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress with expertise in National security, U.S. foreign policy, U.S.-China relations, Asia geopolitics. China’s Rise Is A Big Reason to Ratify the Law of the Sea Convention; Center for American Progress. http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/china/news/2012/06/12/11698/chinas-rise-is-a-big-reason-to-ratify-the-law-of-the-sea-convention/ MMG.

Ratifying __LOSC will give the U__ nited __S__ tates added __legitimacy__ as it seeks to defend the AND , including freedom of navigation rights for the U.S. Navy.
 * Specifically, it’s key to US diplomatic credibility – China will comply with LOST if pressured, but only US engagement can do that**
 * Rogers, 12** – Will, Research Associate at the Center for a New American Security (“Security at Sea: The Case for Ratifying the Law of the Sea Convention,” Center for a New American Security, April 2012, [] //blue)

In order to be prepared to counter specific threats as they arise across the globe AND a global “partnership of maritime nations sharing common goals and values.”67
 * That checks Chinese aggression and enhances US credibility in the region**
 * Vanecko 11** [Jonathan J. Vanecko, Liutenant CMDR USN at US Naval War College and worked in the pentagon, May 11 2011, “Time to Ratify UNCLOS; A New Twist on an Old Problem,” [], MM]

South China Sea is a hotbed for East Asian Conflict.
__T____he South China Sea is a powder keg of territorial claims__ __AND__ __What's still unclear is just how bad things could plausibly get there.__
 * Business Insider 6/10/14.** This Map Shows Why The South China Sea Could Lead To The Next World War. [] . MMG

__Taiwan is the most likely__ potential __crisis that could trigger a nuclear war between China__ __AND__ __arsenals,__ such __a conflict would be tremendously dangerous and__ quite possibly __devastating.”__
 * Extinction- maritime conflict and Chinese aggression escalate to full blown US/China nuclear war**
 * Lowther, 2013** (William, 3/16/13, “Taiwan could spark nuclear war: report,” [], Accessed: 6/27/14 FG)

Two concerns have driven much of the debate about international security in the post- AND
 * Goes nuclear fast**
 * Goldstein, 13** – Avery, David M. Knott Professor of Global Politics and International Relations, Director of the Center for the Study of Contemporary China, and Associate Director of the Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics at the University of Pennsylvania (“First Things First: The Pressing Danger of Crisis Instability in U.S.-China Relations,” International Security, vol. 37, no. 4, Spring 2013, Muse //Red)
 * __a crisis__**__, compressing the time frame for diplomacy to avert military conflict.__


 * Rising tensions over the SCS independently kill the US Japan Alliance**

__If a conflict did erupt__ __AND__ __Any misunderstanding at the highest levels could have serious adverse consequences for the alliance.__
 * Carnegie 4/10/14** . Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; a Global Think Tank. Obama’s Quiet Priority in Japan: The East China Sea. [] . MMG.

__The U.S.-Japan alliance is the cornerstone of our engagement in the__ __AND__ , and better able to work together to address common security concerns
 * Japan alliance is key to stability – solves democracy, warming**
 * Campbell 10**. Kurt M. Campbell¶ Assistant Secretary, Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs¶ Statement before the House Armed Services Committee¶ Washington, DC. U.S. Department of State. http://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2010/07/145191.htm>. MMG

There are tragic stories of death and injury every day in all our local papers AND ways of driving, of operating our economies, that don’t risk extinction?
 * Warming causes extinction**
 * Henderson 05** Hill, March 16th, 2005, Countercurrents.org “Racing To Extinction” [] (MG)

This hardly exhausts the lists of threats to our security and well-being in AND __with its provisions for legality, accountability, popular sovereignty, and openness.__
 * Democracy checks extinction**
 * Diamond, 95** – Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, founding co-editor of the Journal of Democracy, Professor of Political Science and Sociology and Coordinator of the Democracy Program at the the Center on Democracy at Stanford University (Larry, "Promoting Democracy in the 1990s: Actors and instruments, issues and imperatives : a report to the Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict", December 1995, June 26th 2010, http://wwics.si.edu/subsites/ccpdc/pubs/di/di.htm)

Solvency
The first draft of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea ( AND  assert its role as a global leader and accede to this important treaty.”
 * US ratification of LOST adds credibility to the convention and helps with enforcement- checks Chinese manipulation of treaty**
 * May 12** [Cmdr Bradley May, commander May served more than 14 years as a submarine officer on active duty and in a Reserve capacity. He currently works at Space and Naval Warfare (SPAWAR) Systems Center Atlantic, June 2012, “Now Hear This: The U.S. Senate Should Ratify UNCLOS,” [], MM]

__U.S. accession to the Law of the Sea Convention has received support__ __AND__ __benefits are not limited to the continental shelf and its resources__, however.
 * Signing onto LOST lets the US maximize legal certainty and best secure international recognition**
 * NOAA****14,** 6/26/ **“**LAW OF THE SEA CONVENTION” [] (MG)

__Some__ have __argue__ d __that UNCLOS has already become "customary international law," and__ thus __AND__ __-membership complicates__ everyday __bilateral and multilateral cooperation with__ scores of __international partners.__
 * Ratification now is key to check abusive interpretations of the treaty**
 * Patrick 12** - Stewart M. Patrick is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (where he writes the blog The Internationalist) and Director of the Program on International Institutions and Global Governance. (6/10/2012, Stewart, The Atlantic, “(Almost) Everyone Agrees: The U.S. Should Ratify the Law of the Sea Treaty”, [] // SM)

Gerard said the US would benefit since __the treaty would extend the nation's control of__ __AND__ __to make major investments without the certainty about risks that this treaty provides."__ = =
 * Certainty is key – no investment without it**
 * Snow 12** – Nick Snow has covered oil and gas in Washington for more than 30 years. He worked in several capacities for The Oil Daily and was founding editor of Petroleum Finance Week before joining OGJ as its Washington correspondent in September 2005 and becoming its full-time Washington editor in October 2007. (7/9/2012, Nick, Oil & Gas Journal, “US should ratify Law of the Sea treaty, Senate panel told”, [|http://www.ogj.com/articles/print/vol-110/issue-7a/general-interest/us-should-ratify-law-of-the-sea.html //] SM)

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