GJP+Evan+and+Nathan

=Contention 1 is Oil=

TRANSBOUNDARY AGREEMENT December 21, 2012 –BRW) *We do not endorse gendered or ableist language*
 * Declining Mexican exports entrench US reliance on Saudi Arabia oil**
 * Lugar 12** (Richard Lugar, yeah the congressmen, (good luck w/politics) A MINORITY STAFF REPORT PREPARED FOR THE USE OF THE COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS UNITED STATES SENATE One Hundred Twelfth Congress Second Session [] OIL, MEXICO, AND THE

I directed Senate Foreign…on these issues. Sincerely,


 * But, the Hydrocarbon agreement reverses that trend- increases oil cooperation and energy independence**
 * Boman, 13** oil and natural gas expert (Karen Boman, 4/22/13, “Bill Seeks to Allow Drilling Near US Mexico Maritime Border”, http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=125950) *We do not endorse gendered or ableist language*

Bill Seeks to Allow… //production shortfalls//, Lugar added.


 * Two scenarios**


 * Scenario one is Saudi dependence**


 * Saudi Arabian instability is inevitable – but the US gets drawn in if we’re dependant on Saudi Oil**
 * Glaser 2011** (Professor of Political Science and International Relations Elliot School of International Affairs The George Washington University, “ Reframing Energy Security: How Oil Dependence Influences U.S. National Security,” August 2011, [] ) *We do not endorse gendered or ableist language*

A cutoff of Saudi … a very long time.” [1]


 * That fuels regional arms race and instability**
 * Luft 2007** (Gal Luft, executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, “Dependence on Middle East Energy and its Impact on Global Security,” Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, most recent cited date – 2007, [] ,) *We do not endorse gendered or ableist language*

Despite the high visibility…large could be incalculable.

McDowell 3, Lt, US navy, November 2003 (Steven ,“Is Saudi Arabia a Nuclear Threat?” Naval Postgrad Thesis, [] ) *We do not endorse gendered or ableist language*
 * Saudi instability collapses U.S. Security Umbrella in the middle east and allows for terrorist groups to obtain nuclear weapons**

The security umbrella …the war on terrorism .


 * Nuclear terrorism causes extinction**
 * Sid-Ahmed 4** (Mohamed Sid-Ahmed; former member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of Egypt, leading member of the National Progressive Unionist Party, and leading journalist for Al-Ahmar; Accessed June 25, 2012; http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm; Written August 26, 2004; “Extinction!”-BRW) *We do not endorse gendered or ableist language*

The advent of the…will all be losers .

Oil dependence could reduce…to ensure secure access.
 * None of their turns apply- Dependence on finite amounts of oil makes conflict and intervention inevitable – it creates an incentive to go to war**
 * Glaser 2011** (Professor of Political Science and International Relations Elliot School of International Affairs The George Washington University, “ Reframing Energy Security: How Oil Dependence Influences U.S. National Security,” August 2011, [] ,) *We do not endorse gendered or ableist language*

Nonetheless, **__the United States…__** dealt with in reform.
 * Investment solves long term oil dependence – Mexico has enough oil to sustain the US- it’s a question of negotiation**
 * Myers et. Al 12** (William C. Danvers, Staff Director Kenneth A. Myers, Jr., Staff Director U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 77-567 WASHINGTON : 2012 A MINORITY STAFF REPORT PREPARED FOR THE USE OF THE COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS UNITED STATES SENATE –BRW) *We do not endorse gendered or ableist language*


 * Scenario 2 is Energy Diplomacy:**

**US policy is disengaged from energy diplomacy- efforts are insufficient** **Geman 12** ( Clinton: 'Energy diplomacy' central to US foreign policy By Ben Geman - 10/18/12 09:46 AM ET http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/262727-clinton-energy-central-part-of-diplomacy-foreign-policy#ixzz2aAy0c6Gj –BRW) *We do not endorse gendered or ableist language*

Secretary of State Hillary… payments to foreign governments

**The plan is key to expanded energy cooperation– bilateral engagement spills over** **Goldwyn 13** (David Goldwyn, President and Founder, Goldwyn Global Strategies Energy Opportunities in Latin America and the Caribbean. Testimony by U.S. House of Representatives Documents – published: 2013 – april -- [] ) *We do not endorse gendered or ableist language*

On February 20, 2012…Deputy Assistant Secretary level.


 * Access to energy resources is an impact filter—it’s reverse casual and prevents the __escalation__ of conflict**
 * Clinton 12** former Secretary of State (Hillary Rodham Clinton, “ Energy Diplomacy in the 21st Century” October 18, 2012, [] ) *We do not endorse gendered or ableist language*

But let me start…hoarding it for themselves.

**Specifically, THA is the key Starting point for Energy diplomacy – it is k2 effective transition to renewables and prevents economic shocks- it’s reverse causal** **Hormats 13** (Why Global Energy Diplomacy Matters By Robert D. Hormats | Thursday, April 25, 2013 Robert D. Hormats was sworn in as the U.S. Under Secretary of State on September 23, 2009. Mr. Hormats was formerly vice chairman of Goldman Sachs (International). Before joining Goldman Sachs, he served as Assistant Secretary of State for Economic and Business Affairs from 1981 to 1982, Ambassador and Deputy U.S. Trade Representative from 1979 to 1981, and Senior Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic and Business Affairs at the Department of State from 1977 to 1979. Mr. Hormats has been a visiting lecturer at Princeton University and served on the Board of Visitors at Tufts University's Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and the Dean's Council at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. He is also a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. –BRW) *We do not endorse gendered or ableist language* America's growing energy self-sufficiency… damage and climate change.

Royal, 10, director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010 (Jedediah, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal, and Political Perspectives, pg 213-215, -BRW) *We do not endorse gendered or ableist language*
 * Economic collapse incentivizes war and conflict – this inevitably goes nuclear**

Less intuitive is how…ancillary to those views.

**Additionally it is reverse causal – increased economic growth makes war obsolete and acts as an impact filter to your disadvantages** **Deudney, 9**, (A FEW YEARS LATER HE CHANGED HIS MIND ABOUT K WAVE THEORY) professor of political science at John Hopkins et al, 09 [Daniel, and John Ikenberry, professor of international affairs at Princeton, Foreign Affairs, [] -BRW) *We do not endorse gendered or ableist language*

This bleak outlook is…the autocratic revivalists acknowledge.

=Contention 2 is Manufacturing=


 * Natural Gas prices will increase in the status quo:**

a) LNG exports- They are inevitable and will constrain domestic production and causes mass price spikes
Muro ‘11 (Mark Muro Policy Director, Brookings Institution Metropolitan Policy Program "Export Natural Gas? Not So Fast" [] *We do not endorse gendered or ableist language*

Along these lines, I…higher-value production economy.

b) Supply- Domestic supply will run out without new drilling- accelerates prices- all of their ev is contrived and not accurate
RP Siegel 2-22, PE, is an inventor, consultant and author, “Shale Energy Bubble Threatens Second Economic Collapse,” [] Accessed Date: 2-22-13 y2k There has been more… this doesn’t keep happening.

And, that breaks the manufacturing sector- price spikes and volatility crush recovery and undermine productivity
Markey ‘12 (Rep. Ed Markey, D-Mass. Ranking Member, House Natural Resources Committee [|http://energy.nationaljournal.com/2012/09/sizing-up-the-role-of-natural.php%232246213 sept 2012)] *We do not endorse gendered or ableist language*

The boom in American…oil and gas companies.

That kills advanced manufacturing and innovation- sustained growth is key
Lind ‘12 (Michael Lind is policy director of New America’s Economic Growth Program and a co-founder of the New America Foundation. Joshua Freedman is a program associate in New America’s Economic Growth Program. “Value Added: America’s Manufacturing Future,” pg online @ [] ) *We do not endorse gendered or ableist language*

Manufacturing, R&D and the…50 percent by 2020.33


 * Two scenarios:**


 * First is Deterrence**

Advanced manufacturing is k2 effective defense industrial base
The current wave of defense… __in a globalized marketplace __.
 * O’Hanlon et al 12** (Mackenzie Eaglen, American Enterprise Institute Rebecca Grant, IRIS Research Robert P. Haffa, Haffa Defense Consulting Michael O'Hanlon, The Brookings Institution Peter W. Singer, The Brookings Institution Martin Sullivan, Commonwealth Consulting Barry Watts, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments “The Arsenal of Democracy and How to Preserve It: Key Issues in Defense Industrial Policy January 2012,” pg online @ [] //um-ef) *We do not endorse gendered or ableist language*

Paone 9 (Chuck, 66th Air Base Wing Public Affairs for the US Air Force, 8-10-09, “Technology convergence could prevent war, futurist says,” http://www.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123162500) *We do not endorse gendered or ableist language*
 * That makes war obsolete- it’s the ultimate deterrent**

The convergence of "exponentially… people don't know it.

Specifically, its k2 deter russia and china war
Since the 1950s, __the __…__been since the 1950s__ .
 * Watts 2008** (Senior Fellow @ The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (Barry D, “The US Defense Industrial Base, Past, Present and Future,” CBA, __http://www.csbaonline.org/4Publications/PubLibrary/R.20081015._The_US_Defense_In/R.20081015._The_US_Defense_In.pdf__) *We do not endorse gendered or ableist language*


 * Second is Nanotechnology**

A strong manufacturing base is k2 accelerate nanotech development and secure US nano-leadership – countries are heavily invested and competing
__Nanotech __nology, __<span style="font-family: Georgia,serif;">often touted as __<span style="font-family: Georgia,serif;">…__that we can here."__
 * MTN 2005** (“Lack of Manufacturing Base Imperils U.S. Lead in Nanotechnology” pg online @ [] //um-ef) *We do not endorse gendered or ableist language*


 * US unilateral development on nanotech is k2 regulation and safety- other nations will exploit it **

**Forrest 1989** [David, President of the Institute for Molecular Manufacturing and a Senior Fellow at the Foresight Nanotech Institute, member of the Working Group for the International Technology Roadmap for Productive Nanosystems, and of the Technical Advisory Group to the American National Standards Institute (ANSI) on the ISO Technical Committee on Nanotechnology (TC/229), “Regulating Nanotechnology Development,” 3-23, [] ] *We do not endorse gendered or ableist language*

__ If we tried to __…__ as soon as possible. __


 * And, US is a prerequisite to international development- sets the ground for cooperation **

**Goel 2008** [Dr. Anita, MD, PhD, is the president and scientific director of Nanobiosym Labs and president and CEO of Nanobiosym Diagnostics, the commercial arm of Nanobiosym that is developing next-generation diagnostic capabilities, 4-28, “Harnessing Nanotechnology to Drive the New Global Economy,” [] ] *We do not endorse gendered or ableist language*

I envision that the…growing multibillion-dollar market.

Unregulated nanotech development causes extinction

 * Gubrud 97** (Mark Avrum Gubrud, a research associate, Center for Superconductivity Research (University of Maryland, College Park), is ''a physicist, writer and social activist, November 1997, [], “Nanotechnology and International Security”) *We do not endorse gendered or ableist language*

<span style="font-family: Georgia,serif; font-size: 11pt;">The greatest danger coincides… // the next world war //<span style="font-family: Georgia,serif; font-size: 8pt;">.


 * And, the plan solves:**

THA is k2 effective natgas development- fills in for the harm of exports
HCNR 2013 (House Committee on Natural Resources, 6-27-13, “ House Votes to Approve Transboundary Hydrocarbons Agreement with Mexico “, [] ) *We do not endorse gendered or ableist language*

Today, the House of… received strong bipartisan support.”

Massive amounts of natural gas in the gulf- reinforces US supply and prevents shocks

 * Science Daily, 9** (Science Daily, 6/1/9, “Significant Gas Resource Discovered In Gulf Of Mexico”, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090531100819.htm) *We do not endorse gendered or ableist language*

Recent drilling by a…of gas hydrate systems.”

=Plan=


 * Text: The United States federal government should ratify the Transboundary Hydrocarbons Agreement.**

=Contention 3 is Solvency=

The aff IS inherent - Obama won’t push and will veto the plan – that would kill the bill in the squo
The Obama administration can not … Resource Extraction Disclosure Rule.
 * Boman 6/26** staff writer at rigzone (Karen Boman, “White House Cannot Support Gulf Transboundary Bill” June 26, 2013 [] ) //KY


 * TBHA is k2 U.S.-Mexico energy production- solves energy dependence**
 * Myers et. al 12** (William C. Danvers, Staff Director Kenneth A. Myers, Jr., Staff Director U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 77-567 WASHINGTON : 2012 A MINORITY STAFF REPORT PREPARED FOR THE USE OF THE COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS UNITED STATES SENATE –BRW) *We do not endorse gendered or ableist language*

The centerpiece of the… commencement of Congressional hearings.

TBHA can ONLY be done through legislation

 * Simmons 2013** – Regulatory and state affairs director at the Institute for Energy Research (Daniel, “IER’s Simmons to Testify on Hydrocarbons Agreement,” IER, 4/24/13, IER, http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/2013/04/24/testimony-of-daniel-simmons-subcommittee-on-energy-and-mineral-resources/)//Bwang

North America is an… __ Hydrocarbon Agreement ____ to Congress. __

Only the US can ratify the TBHA

 * Snow 2013** Oil and Gas Journal Editor (Nick, “House panel asks Obama to take energy steps with Mexico, Canada,” OGJ, 3/14/13, http://www.ogj.com/articles/2013/03/house-panel-asks-obama-to-take-energy-steps-with-mexico--canada.html)//Bwang

__ Ratifying TBHA ____ also would __ …__implementing legislation__ ,” he said.

Sarukhan 12 (Arturo Sarukhan, Mexican Ambassador to the U.S. since February 2007, “Viewpoints: What Should the Top Priority Be for U.S. – Mexican Relations?” American Society/Council of the Americas, 12/3/12, [|www.as-coa.org/articles/viewpoints-what-should-top-priority-be-us-mexican-relations])
 * Engagement inevitable – its only a question of effectiveness**
 * a. TPP**

Over the past two… efforts toward economic progress.

Janes 13 (Jared Janes, Reporter for The Monitor, 2/4/13, “Cuellar: U.S. aid to Mexico should continue”, http://www.themonitor.com/news/local/article_72349d54-6e60-11e2-898e-001a4bcf6878.html//DH) U.S. aid allocated under …the assistance to Mexico.”
 * b. Merida Initiative**

Seelke and Finklea 6/12 (Clare Ribando Seelke is a Specialist in Latin American Affairs and Kristin M. Finklea is an Analyst in Domestic Security “U.S.-Mexican Security Cooperation: The Mérida Initiative and Beyond”, June 12, 2013, [], A.S.) Inaugurated on December 1, 2012…on ¶ Mérida Initiative funding.
 * c. Funding inevitable**

<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 10pt;">[1] David, //Catastrophic Consequences//, pp. 30-31; Thomas Hegghammer, “Islamist Violence and Regime Stability in Saudi Arabia,” //International Affairs//, Vol. 84, No. 4 (2008), pp. 701-715, at p. 715. Other relatively optimistic assessments included J. Robinson West, “Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the Gulf,” in Kalicki and Goldwyn, //Energy and Security//.