Maggie+and%20Greg

South Korea - Conflict, China, Regionalism


 * Plan:**
 * The United States federal government should implement a phased withdrawal of its ground troops in the Republic of Korea.**


 * Advantage 1 is YOU DON’T POKE A MONSTER**


 * Scenario 1 is Draw In**


 * The sinking of the South Korea’s ship makes conflict inevitable – retaliation will spark an escalatory war and failure to respond will only cause more North Korean provocations.**
 * Bandow, 10** – senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to Reagan (4/18/10, Doug, “Let the Koreans Take Care of the Koreas,” [], JMP)

__It has been weeks since …__ to defend its own personnel.

[], JMP)
 * The status quo is __fundamentally different__ than the past – the chance of a major miscalculation and global escalation is possible now in __five different ways__**
 * Sanger, 10** (5/28/10, David E. Sanger, NY Times, “In the Koreas, Five Possible Ways to War,”

USUALLY, there is a familiar cycle … **__else North Korea found its customers.__**

[], JMP)
 * And more attacks are coming**
 * VOA News, 10** (5/31/10, “Admiral Mullen: North Korea May Attack Again,”

WASHINGTON - __The chairman of the …__ in its dispute with South Korea.


 * U.S. presence makes provocations inevitable and guarantees our draw in**
 * Bandow, 10** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (5/3/10, Doug, “Taming Pyongyang,” [], JMP)

Suspicions continue to mount that North… must continue doing so in 2010 is bizarre.


 * U.S. presence __facilitates this__**
 * Armstrong, 10 –** Professor of history and director of the Center for Korean Research at Columbia University.. (Charles, 5/26/10, CNN, “The Korean War never ended” [])

On the other hand, __there is a …__ Korean War, not start it anew.


 * Withdrawing __ground troops__ solves – stops North Korea from drawing our forces into a wider conflict**
 * Stanton, 10** – U.S. Army Judge Advocate in Korea from 98-02 and practicing attorney in Washington, D.C. (4/12/10, Joshua, The New Ledger, “It's Time for the U.S. Army to Leave Korea,” [], JMP)

Proceeding against the advice… aligns with the correct result.


 * __Scenario 2 is succession__ –**


 * A massive power struggle is underway in North Korea**
 * Bandow, 6/9** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (6/9/10, Doug, The Daily Caller, “Confronting North Korea: Who’s in charge?”[], JMP)

We see through a glass darkly… far more than Washington’s problem.

[], JMP)
 * Succession politics makes provocations __more likely and dangerous__ and prevents rollback of North Korea’s nuclear program**
 * Bandow, 09** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (7/29/09, Doug, “Kim’s Heir,”

President George W. Bush famously .. even more unsettled and dangerous future.


 * Conventional weaknesses will force North Korea to resort to chemical weapons**
 * ICG, 09** (6/18/09, International Crisis Group, “North Korea’s Chemical and Biological Weapons Programs,” [], JMP)

This report examines North Korea’s .. **__WMD attacks or incidents.__**


 * North Korean bioweapon use would __spread globally__ within __six weeks__ – greater than nuclear**
 * Levy, 07** (6-8-07, Janet Ellen, The American Thinking, “The Threat of Bioweapons,” [], JMP)

Immediately following 9-11, an anthrax … quantities can be developed within days.


 * Extinction**
 * Ochs 02** – MA in Natural Resource Management from Rutgers University and Naturalist at Grand Teton National Park [Richard, “BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS MUST BE ABOLISHED IMMEDIATELY,” Jun 9, http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html]

__Of all the weapons of …__ patriotism is the highest of all crimes.


 * The plan solves – motivates China and South Korea to influence the leadership transition**
 * Bandow, 08** – Fellow at the American Conservative Defense Alliance and former special assistant to Reagan (9/15/08, Doug, “Dear Leader Goes South,” [], JMP)

Two men have ruled the northern … **__most importantly South Korea and China.__**


 * China is key to stabilize Korea – prevents violent collapse, military response by South Korea, North Korea nuclearization and allied proliferation**
 * Bandow, 10** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (5/3/10, Doug, “Taming Pyongyang,” [], JMP)

Second, the United States, South Korea… China in the North Korean issue.


 * U.S. presence won’t deter North Korea – withdrawal will motivate South Korea and China to stabilize the peninsula**
 * Erickson, 10** – Executive Director of CenterMovement.org (5/6/10, Stephen, “End the Cold War in Korea: Bring American Troops Home Before it’s Too Late,” [], JMP)

On the night of March 26 the … __brought home before it’s too late.__


 * Advantage 2 is Regionalism**


 * U.S. alliance relationships are unsustainable – Asian powers should develop a regional security strategy that __does not__ rely on the U.S. – ensures stable region**
 * Francis, 6** – former Australian Ambassador to Croatia and fellow at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University from 05-06 (Fall 2006, Neil, Harvard International Review, “For an East Asian Union: Rethinking Asia's Cold War Alliances,” [], JMP)

At the conclusion of the Second World War, the United … strong, independent East Asian Union.


 * Withdrawal will reduce Korea’s veto of multilateral security mechanisms – solves peace on the peninsula – prevents great power war**
 * Lee, 9** – Seoul National University (December 2009, Geun, “The Nexus between Korea’s Regional Security Options and Domestic Politics,” [|www.cfr.org], JMP)

Korea’s Option of Multilateral … __form of the U.S.-Korea alliance.__


 * Accelerating U.S. withdrawal is key to catalyze a multipolar balance of power in the region**
 * Espiritu, 6** – Commander, U.S. Navy (3/15/06, Commander Emilson M. Espiritu, “The Eagle Heads Home: Rethinking National Security Policy for The Asia-Pacific Region,” [], JMP)

Can the U.S. live with the risk …for the Eagle to head home.


 * Strengthening the East Asian security key to solve terrorism, territorial disputes, disease, environmental degradation, and maritime security**
 * Nanto, 8** – Specialist in Industry and Trade Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division for Congressional Research Services (1/4, “East Asian Regional Architecture: New Economic and Security Arrangements and U.S. Policy,” www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33653.pdf)

__A stronger **regional security** **…**__ now exist or will exist in the future.


 * Territorial disputes draw in great powers --- causes World War 3**
 * Waldron, 97** – professor of strategy and policy at the U.S. Naval War College and an associate of the Fairbank Center for East Asian Research at Harvard (March 1997, Arthur, Commentary, “How Not to Deal with China,” EBSCO)

__MAKING THESE … or Japan--or the__ __U__nited __S__tates.

Advantage 3 is China

“First Among Equals,” [], JMP)
 * The plan eases the transition to a more multipolar world – trying to cling to the status quo makes hegemonic decline and conflict with China inevitable**
 * Bandow, 09** – Fellow at the American Conservative Defense Alliance and Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (1/12/09, Doug,

It’s the job of military planners to plot…**__smoother will be the transition.__**


 * Only plan will motivate South Korea and China to stabilize and denuclearize – avoids accidental conflict with China, preserves larger U.S. deterrence and stops friction with Japan**
 * Garfinkle, 03** – taught American foreign policy and Middle East politics at the University of Pennsylvania and is editor of The National Interest (1/27/03, Adam, National Review, “Checking Kim,” [], JMP)

NO NORMAL DIPLOMACY The U.S. finds itself in an … __benefits China more than it__

**Bandow, 09** – senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to Reagan (2/24/09, Doug, “Balancing Beijing,” EBSCO, JMP)
 * Motivating Beijing to take a greater regional role ensures its peaceful rise**

So Washington should exhibit humility a…and geopolitical ambitions.

Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United States of America”, []]
 * Accidental conflict with China will escalate**
 * Hunkovic, 09 –** American Military University [Lee J, 2009, “The Chinese-Taiwanese Conflict

__A war between China, …__ countries will not be considered in this study.


 * And:**
 * South Korean modernization will be conventional**
 * Bandow, 09** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to Reagan (6/16/09, Doug, “A Tattered Umbrella,” [], JMP)

South Korea’s foreign minister reports that … dispute into an international crisis.

Realism is true and inevitable – a shift away collapses into chaos.
 * __Mearsheimer__** 200**__1__** [professor of political science at University of Chicago, //The Tragedy of Great Power Politics//, pg. 361]

__The optimists' claim that … in each region at peace.__