aff+cites 

If you have any questions feel free to email jaredflippen@gmail.com


 * NOTE:** Every 1ac will include the Taiwan advantage. However, the trade advantage and the relations are interchangeable (i.e. a 1ac with Taiwan+Relations or Taiwan+Trade). If we have contact info will will disclose advantages immediately after pairings come out.

Plan
====Plan: The United States federal government should offer to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) a staged agreement consisting of restrictions on United States arms sales in return for verifiable limit on PRC military production and deployment relevant to the Republic of China (ROC) and a commitment that the PRC will not use force against the ROC.====

The DPP’s election means Taiwan is moving towards de jure independence with US backing
DPP = Democratic Progressive Party The pro-independence DPP has returned to power AND of the Taiwan Strait and for the benefit of the US itself too.
 * Yin, 6/8/16 -** Yin Chengde is a research fellow of China Foundation for International Studies (“Time for US to Change Its Taiwan Policy” []

The recent accidental launch is contributing to increasingly tense China-Taiwan relations
Guerrero 7/1, (Kay, 7/1/16, Taiwan accidentally launches missile toward China, kills fishing boat captain, CNN, http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/01/asia/taiwan-fires-missile-on-china/index.html)//kap (CNN) A Taiwan warship mistakenly launched a supersonic "aircraft carrier killer" AND , whose party has traditionally leaned in favor of formal independence from China.

The risk of a US-China war over Taiwan is high. Blocking independence is China’s __core__ national interest and outweighs economic ties
As Taiwan is important to both China and the United States, conflict of interests AND bonds of commerce, trade, and military ties between the two powers.
 * Kuntić, 15** – visiting fellow at European Union Centre in Taiwan, National Taiwan University; PhD candidate at the Faculty of Political Science, University of Zagreb (Dario, “The Ominous Triangle: China-Taiwan-the United States relationship” CIRR XXI (72) 2015, 239-280)

Nationalist pressure and nuclear insecurity make the risk of war high and nuclear escalation probable
Although a number of regional sovereignty and maritime disputes have the potential to sour the AND Party] is finding it increasingly difficult to justify its weak responses .”67
 * Glaser, 15** - Charles L Glaser is a professor in the Elliott School of International Affairs and the Department of Political Science at George Washington University. He is also a fellow in the Kissinger Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (“A U.S.-China Grand Bargain?” International Security, Vol. 39, No. 4 (Spring 2015), pp. 49–90, doi:10.1162/ISEC_a_00199

U.S. arms sales to Taiwan ensure regional instability, makes conflict inevitable, and destroys regional stability
An 1-17-13 Xiao, This article was first published in Chinese and translated by Chen Boyuan, US' arms sales to Taiwan impede Sino-US relationship, http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2013-01/17/content_27716480.htm, msm U.S. arms sales to Taiwan not only //directly harm China’s essential interest// AND //can the China-US relationship develop in a stable and smooth manner//.

It’s the __most probable__ cause of nuclear war – strategic mistrust makes escalation likely
Taiwan AND arsenals, such a conflict would be tremendously dangerous and quite possibly devastating. ”
 * Lowther, 13** – citing a CSIS report (William, Tapei Times, 3/16, “Taiwan could spark nuclear war: report,” [])
 * CSIS = Center for Strategic and International Studies; covers Nuclear Issues

US-China war goes nuclear
Talmadge 16, Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at The George Washington University, (Caitlin, February 2016, Conventional Counterforce as a Pathway to Nuclear Escalation, https://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/china_policy_brief_talmadge_0.pdf)//kap This escalation scenario is distinct from other possible pathways to nuclear use. For example AND Similarly, the United States may cross Chinese nuclear tripwires without realizing it.

The aff solves miscalculation- a reduction in arms sales allows adverse impacts to be avoided
Swaine is described by Carnegie as “one of the most prominent American analysts in AND //adverse outcomes//, including a resort to nuclear weapons , //could be avoided//.
 * Lowther 15 **- William, staff writer, Beijing ‘too passive’ over Taiwan: Chinese analysts, ([]) JB

Reducing arms sales to Taiwan facilitates dialogue between China, Taiwan, and the US which would lower the possibility of conflict
The Bush administration and Congress must recognize that, despite the current improvement in relations //AND// relations. This //potential opening should be fully explored// by the Bush administration.
 * Swaine 03- **Michael, expert in China and East Asian security studies and a Senior Associate in the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, China, Reverse Course? The Fragile Turnaround in U.S.–China Relations, ([]) JB

First, Chinese calculations have changed – they will retaliate to future U.S. arms sales with sanctions
China’s recent threat to impose sanctions on U.S. defense companies that sell AND business in China, according to data compiled last year by Factset Research.
 * Harrell 16 **- Peter, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security and former deputy assistant secretary of state for counter-threat finance and sanctions, China threatens sanctions against U.S. companies: Is this the future?, ([]) JB

====And, U.S arms sales are inevitable and result in Chinese sanctions vs. Boeing – Boeing is at-risk – Sanctions collapse Boeing’s civilian sector and take down the whole company – even if China doesn’t //__SANCTION__// Boeing, they’ll shift business which still triggers the impact==== Chesson 11 (Roy David, currently a Foreign Area Officer in the US Navy. BS in Physics from the University of Wisconsin, and MA degree in Security Studies (East Asian) from the Naval Post Graduate School and an MA degree in Engineering Management from Old Dominion University, “How China could Affect the Future of US Defense Corporations,” pg online @ https://web.stanford.edu/group/sjeaa/journal111/China3.pdf //um-ef) However the continuous sales to Taiwan by the AND wants to become the world’s third-largest aircraft manufacturer by 2015.
 * UTC = United Technologies Corporation

And, manufacturing capabilities key to technology necessary for U.S. deterrence – prevents conflict
O’Hanlon et al 2k12 (Mackenzie Eaglen, American Enterprise Institute Rebecca Grant, IRIS Research Robert P. Haffa, Haffa Defense Consulting Michael O'Hanlon, The Brookings Institution Peter W. Singer, The Brookings Institution Martin Sullivan, Commonwealth Consulting Barry Watts, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments “The Arsenal of Democracy and How to Preserve It: Key Issues in Defense Industrial Policy January 2012,” pg online @ [] //um-ef) The current wave of defense cuts is also different than past defense budget reductions in AND __civilian and military export opportunities for the U __nited __S __tates __ in a globalized marketplace __.

====And, Nationalism controls the CCP’s response to foreign actions—the public will not tolerate signs of weakness and will respond violently to attacks on their national identity – new arms sales risk T-Bill Sell-off or Coup de-tat==== Garver 2016 (John, is Emertius Professor in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology. He specializes in China’s foreign relations. He served for many years on a the editorial boards of the journals China Quarterly, Journal of Contemporary China, Issues and Studies, and Asian Security. He is a member of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, has testified before the U.S. Congress, and is the author of twelve books and seventy–five refereed articles and book chapters dealing with China 's foreign relations, “China’s Quest: the History of the Foreign Relations of the People’s Republic of China,” Chapter 28, “China’s Quest for Modernity and the Tides of World History,” Oxford University Press, 2016, silbs) Analysts differ about the extent to which autonomous (non-state-directed) AND ensured. Thus, the Politburo must pay close heed to PLA views.

That triggers multiple scenarios for nuclear conflict
Perkinson 12 (Jessica, MA International Affairs, American University, frmr Program Coordinator Center for Asian Studies, American University, “The Potential for Instability in the PRC: How the Doomsday Theory Misses the Mark,” pg online @ http://aladinrc.wrlc.org/bitstream/handle/1961/10330/Perkinson_american_0008N_10238display.pdf?sequence=1 //um-ef) Regional Security There are a number of areas of concern among China’s immediate regional neighbors AND investment (FDI) into developing countries, primarily on the African continent.

The plan solves relations --- single largest setback of the squo
Zurong 13 (Wu Zurong, Research Fellow, China Foundation For Int'L Studies, 4-2-2013, "Is it Time to Stop Arms Sales to Taiwan?," US-China Focus, [] // PD) Since ancient times, Taiwan has been the territory of China. Oddly enough, AND flourish on a solid basis in the peaceful environment across the Taiwan Straits.

Strategic distrust blocks Chinese support for Korean unification and undermines South Korean leadership
China’s support for North Korea at the United Nations as well as its opposition to AND that nonetheless occurs and has an adverse impact on South Korea’s international prospects.
 * Gross, 13** - adjunct fellow of Pacific Forum CSIS, former Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for International Security Affairs in the Department of State, former Counselor of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (Donald, __The China Fallacy: How the U.S. Can Benefit from China’s Rise and Avoid Another Cold War__, p. 218-219)

__China’s leverage is necessary__ to force out North Korean leadership and ensure a peaceful transition
Kydd 2015 – Prof of Political Science at UW Madison

Andrew H, “Pulling the Plug: Can There Be a Deal with China on Korean Unification?”, The Washington Quarterly Volume 38, Issue 2, 2015, p 63-77 Finally, what about North Korea itself? Pyongyang's leadership would definitely be opposed to AND , the United States and China must first address their legacy of mistrust.

It is the only way to provide stability in North East Asia, prevent nuclear conflict, and lift 25 million people from poverty
Terry 2014 - former analyst at the CIA and a Senior Research Scholar at Columbia University’s Weatherhead East Asian Institute

Sue Mi, “A Korea Whole and Free,” July/Aug 2014 Foreign Affairs The real fear of South Koreans, however, is not that Seoul won’t be AND the Soviet Union and the United States divided it at the 38th parallel.

A nuclear war on the peninsula would kill millions, involve massive amounts of fallout, and risk escalation
Mount 2015 - Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relation

Adam, The Strategic Logic of Nuclear Restraint, Survival: Global Politics and Strategy Volume 57, Issue 4, 2015, p. 53-76 As things stand today, the most plausible scenario for US nuclear use is in AND neighbouring countries. An invasion of North Korea would be all but impossible.

Offering to curb arms sales is the __key internal link__ to resolving tensions over Taiwan and __greater US-China cooperation__ – spills over to broader arms reductions in the region
Blanchard and Shen 15 (Jean-Marc F. Blanchard is an Assistant Dean for International Cooperation and Exchange at Shanghai Jiaotong University, Simon Shen is the Master of Global Political Studies at China University, Hong Kong, 1-31-15, //Conflict and cooperation in Sino-US relations: change and continuity, causes and cures//, pp. 102-104 // PD) There are some in the US and Chinese governments who exhibit symptoms that James C AND //in the Taiwan Strait, but in the entire western Pacific//, too.

Plan creates US-Sino cooperation for peaceful Korean unification and prevent the impact to collapse
Because the underlying security competition between the United States and China is a major cause AND legitimate, interim political structure leading to the formation of a new government.
 * Gross, 13** - adjunct fellow of Pacific Forum CSIS, former Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for International Security Affairs in the Department of State, former Counselor of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (Donald, __The China Fallacy: How the U.S. Can Benefit from China’s Rise and Avoid Another Cold War__, p. 222-223)