AS+Arjun+Stephanie

Conditional Cuba embargo! Arjun and stephanie: Either the china scenario will be run with leadership and relations, or ag with leadership and relations, or both, ask in round and we will happily disclose :)

1ac

Plan

The United States federal government should offer to substantially ease its economic restrictions on the Republic of Cuba in exchange for demonstrated Cuban economic reform. advantage 1 – relations

US-Latin American relations are low and it undermines the development of strong regionalism

Inter-American Dialogue 12 - the Inter-American Dialogue is the leading US center for policy analysis, exchange, and communication on issues in Western Hemisphere affairs("Remaking the Relationship The United States and Latin America", April 2012, http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf)

What is at stake is..... these disappointing trends are scarce.

US Cuba policy is the vital internal link – greater economic engagement is the litmus test for engaging all of Latin America Perez, 10 ­– JD, Yale Law (David, "America~'s Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U.S. State Department" 13 Harv. Latino L. Rev. 187, Spring, lexis)

Anti-Americanism has become the political .... long way toward creating goodwill.

WE ACCESS 3 INTERNAL LINKS TO EXTINCTION
Stronger regionalism is vital to effective democracy promotion Inter-American Dialogue 12 - the Inter-American Dialogue is the leading US center for policy analysis, exchange, and communication on issues in Western Hemisphere affairs("Remaking the Relationship The United States and Latin America", April 2012, http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf)

The democratic outlook in the.... be an important first step.

Latin American democracy key to global democracy Hillman, 2 – Ph.D., Professor and Director, Institute for the Study of Democracy and Human Rights, St. John Fisher College (Richard S., Democracy and Human Rights in Latin Americai, Preface, p. vii) //SP//

//Latin American experiences, especially in .... and discourse throughout the world. //

//Democracy prevents extinction// //Diamond 1995 - Hoover Institute Senior Fellow (Larry, "Promoting Democracy in the 1990s," http://wwics.si.edu/subsites/ccpdc/pubs/di/fr.htm)//

//This hardly exhausts the lists of threats to our security and well-being in// //AND// //which a new world order of international security and prosperity can be built.//

//Relations spur effective global cooperation in preventing the dissemination of nuclear weapons to terrorists and preventing climate change// //Inter-American Dialogue 12 ("Remaking the Relationship The United States and Latin America", the Inter-American Dialogue is the leading US center for policy analysis, exchange, and communication on issues in Western Hemisphere affairs, April 2012, http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf)//

//In addition to economic and ..... effective approach to the problem. //

//Nuclear terrorism results in all-out nuclear war and extinction// //Ayson, 10 – Director, Centre for Strategic Studies, Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, "After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects," Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, pp. 571-593, 6/21, http://dl2af5jf3e.search.serialssolutions.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/?sid=sersol%3ARefinerQuery%26citationsubmit=Look+Up%26url_ver=Z39.88-2004%26l=DL2AF5JF3E%26rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fsersol%3ARefinerQuery%26SS_LibHash=DL2AF5JF3E%26SS_ReferentFormat=JournalFormat%26rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1080%2F1057610X.2010.483756%26rft.genre=article%26SS_doi=10.1080%2F1057610X.2010.483756%26rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal)//SY

But these two nuclear worlds—a non-state..... still meet with a devastating response.

Current Cuba policy wrecks OAS credibility – regional coalitions overtake it Reuters 12 (Brian Ellsworth, "Despite Obama charm, Americas summit boosts U.S. isolation," 4/16/12, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/16/us-americas-summit-obama-idUSBRE83F0UD20120416)//SJF//

// (Reuters) - President Barack Obama sat patiently through diatribes, .... Washington Office on Latin America //

//Cyber-attack coming in the Western Hemisphere – OAS legitimacy is key to coordination// //Caribbean News Now 6/25 ("OAS launches cyber security crisis management exercise," 6/25/13, http://www.caribbeannewsnow.com/headline-OAS-launches-cyber-security-crisis-management-exercise-16500.html)//SJF

WASHINGTON, USA — The assistant secretary general of the Organization of American States ( AND ..... The event will conclude on Tuesday.

Cyberattacks cause extinction—Us retaliation Andreasen 6/14 – national security consultant to the Nuclear Threat Initiative and its Nuclear Security Project (Steve, "Cyberwar~'s Threat Does Not Justify a New Policy of Nuclear Deterrence," 6/14/13, http://www.nti.org/analysis/opinions/cyberwars-threat-does-not-justify-new-policy-nuclear-deterrence/)//SJF//

// President Obama is expected to..... agreements related to limiting cyberwar. //

//The plan sends a clear signal to improve Latin American relations and reinvigorate the OAS// //White, 13-Senior fellow at the Center for International Policy and former U.S. ambassador to Paraguay and El Salvador (Robert, "After Chávez, a Chance to Rethink Relations With Cuba", New York Times, 3/7/13, []//

//FOR most of our history,..... reduced to a historical footnote. //

Advantage 2 – leadership //Increasing economic engagement with Cuba is the vital internal link to establishing a credible commitment to multilateralism and successful conflict resolution. This spills over to conflict prevention in the Middle East and Kashmir// //Dickerson 10 – Lieutenant Colonel, US Army, paper submitted in fulfillment of a Master of Strategic Studies Degree at the US Army War College (Sergio M, "UNITED STATES SECURITY STRATEGY TOWARDS CUBA," 1/14/10, http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a518053.pdf)//SJF

At the international political level, ..... peace for years to come.

AND, The U.S. and China are competing for Latin American influence – US economic engagement is key to winning Mallén, May 30, 2013 – MA in International Reporting from CUNY Graduate School of Journalism [Patricia Rey, "Latin Lovers: China And U.S. Both Vying To Increase Influence And Trade In Latin America, Caribbean", http://www.ibtimes.com/latin-lovers-china-us-both-vying-increase-influence-trade-latin-america-caribbean-1284839 //cc]//

//The battle is on. The..... to play with," he added. //

//Middle East war goes nuclear – outweighs every impact and rationality doesn~'t check// //Beck 5/28 – Middle East Analyst at TheCommentator (Noah, "A nuclear Middle East is doomsday, 5/28/13, http://www.thecommentator.com/article/3633/a_nuclear_middle_east_is_doomsday)//SJF

As the Obama administration tries..... this time, is far worse.

Current conflict resolution in Kashmir is ineffective – new international action is key to prevent nuclear conflict Zargar 6/7 – Middle East reporter, Greater Kashmir News (Abdul Majid, "Kashmir Vs Global Community," 6/7/13, http://www.greaterkashmir.com/news/2013/Jun/8/kashmir-vs-global-community-57.asp)//SJF//

//Normal relations between India and..... world to suffer %26 suffer irretrievably. //

//AND, China-Cuba relations high now – ideological, geopolitical, and economic alliances// //Feinberg 11 - professor of international political economy at UC San Dieg, nonresident senior fellow with the Latin America Initiative at Brookings (Richard E., "Reaching Out: Cuba~'s New Economy and the International Response", November, Brookings, [cuba feinberg/1118_cuba_feinberg.pdf)//ID]//

//Chinese officials downplay Chinese interests.... offer a more durable partnership //

//Soft power is zero-sum – expanding US power comes at the expense of regional competitors// //Kochan, 12 - Professor of Law, Chapman University School of Law (Donald, "CIVIL RESISTANCE AND THE LAW: NONVIOLENT TRANSITIONS TO DEMOCRACY: YOU SAY YOU WANT A (NONVIOLENT) REVOLUTION, WELL THEN WHAT? TRANSLATING WESTERN THOUGHT, STRATEGIC IDEOLOGICAL COOPTATION, AND INSTITUTION BUILDING FOR FREEDOM FOR GOVERNMENTS EMERGING OUT OF PEACEFUL CHAOS" 114 W. Va. L. Rev. 897, lexis)//

//The concept of soft power..... attractiveness of its political values." n94 //

//Failure to force China out of the region destroys U.S. international legitimacy —- makes a Taiwan conflict inevitable// //Vega, 5 (Juan, J.D. candidate at the University of Minnesota Law School, M.B.A at the University of Florida, "China~'s Economic and Political Clout Grows in Latin America at the Expense of U.S. Interests," 14 Minn. J. Global Trade 377, Summer 2005, lexis, Tashma) // //5. Potential Loss of Political and Logistical Support in the Event of a U// //AND// //offering favorable bilateral trade agreements and reconsidering the wisdom of its agricultural subsidies.//

//Taiwan conflict leads to nuclear Armageddon// //Strait Times 2k (June 25, "Regional Fallout: No one gains in war over Taiwan", Lexis) //

//THE DOOMSDAY SCENARIO THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross-strait war escalating// //AND// //cannot be ruled out entirely, for China puts sovereignty above everything else.//

//Cuba will say yes to efforts to pursue greater normalization// //Sweig 12 – Nelson and David Rockefeller senior fellow for Latin America studies and director for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (Julia E, "US Cuba Normalization," 7/6/12, http://uscubanormalization.blogspot.com/2012/06/julia-sweig-overview-for-council-on.html)//SJF

The second point is what~'s happening in Cuba. ..... the Obama administration has supported.

Offers of economic engagement will eventually spur political reform and normalization of relations, it will also restore US credibility Perez, 10 ­– JD, Yale Law (David, "America~'s Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U.S. State Department" 13 Harv. Latino L. Rev. 187, Spring, lexis)

As discussed above, any major ..... open society flourish in Cuba.

**1ac agriculture**

The collapse of global agriculture is inevitable – monocultures, pesticides, soil depletion, climate change, pollinators, peak oil and declining yields all mean a new ag model is key to sustainability Peters, 10 – LL.M. expected 2011, University of Arkansas School of Law, Graduate Program in Agricultural and Food Law; J.D. 2010, University of Oregon School of Law (Kathryn, "Creating a Sustainable Urban Agriculture Revolution" J. ENVTL. LAW AND LITIGATION [Vol. 25, 203, http://law.uoregon.edu/org/jell/docs/251/peters.pdf)

The U.S. agricultural system is.....help to ensure food security.

Cuba~'s model of urban agriculture is a sustainable alternative Peters, 10 – LL.M. expected 2011, University of Arkansas School of Law, Graduate Program in Agricultural and Food Law; J.D. 2010, University of Oregon School of Law (Kathryn, "Creating a Sustainable Urban Agriculture Revolution" J. ENVTL. LAW AND LITIGATION [Vol. 25, 203, http://law.uoregon.edu/org/jell/docs/251/peters.pdf)

While urban agriculture was a..... impacting the environment or society.

The plan jumpstarts US investment in Cuban organoponics – causing a widespread global urban agricultural revolution Shkolnick, 12 - J.D. Candidate, Drake University Law School (Jacob, "SIN EMBARGO: n1 THE CUBAN AGRICULTURAL REVOLUTION AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE UNITED STATES" 17 Drake J. Agric. L. 683, Fall, lexis)

VI. New Opportunities While investment in Cuban businesses ..... for urban agriculture to flourish.

This prevents the collapse of US agriculture and extinction Peters, 10 – LL.M. expected 2011, University of Arkansas School of Law, Graduate Program in Agricultural and Food Law; J.D. 2010, University of Oregon School of Law (Kathryn, "Creating a Sustainable Urban Agriculture Revolution" J. ENVTL. LAW AND LITIGATION [Vol. 25, 203, http://law.uoregon.edu/org/jell/docs/251/peters.pdf)

An adequate food supply is essential for the survival of the human race. Historically AND of the population currently lacks access to land on which to grow food. In the face of environmental, economic, and social equity challenges, it is AND urban areas with access to an adequate supply of fresh, nutritious food.

Access to the US export market is key to the viability of the Cuban model Kost, 4 – agricultural economist, Specialty Crops Branch, Economic Research. Service, US Department of Agriculture (William, "CUBAN AGRICULTURE: TO BE OR NOT TO BE ORGANIC?" [])

In addition to the above European markets, the successful expansion and viability of Cuba~'s AND Cuba could be well positioned to meet U.S. certification standards. For the U.S. organic market, in addition to a lifting of AND organic market will be meeting U.S. requirements for organic certification. Tapping the U.S. market may create sufficient price incentives for Cuban producers AND domestic consumption in an environment where other production approaches are just not available.

Solvency The executive will do the plan – it~'s normal means Perales et al., 10- senior program associate of the Latin American Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. (Jose Raul, "The United States and Cuba: Implications of an Economic Relationship," Woodrow Wilson Center Latin American Program, August 2010, []

Whether or not one agrees ..... t his stated goals regarding Cuba.

XO solves – Obama has "non-withstanding" authority to temporarily lift the embargo, which ensures long term solvency and sends a positive signal

 * Doherty, 8** – director of the Smart Strategy Initiative at the New America Foundation (Patrick, Masters in Security Studies from Fletcher University, "An Obama Policy for Cuba", December 12, 2008, http://newamerica.net/node/8668)//eek

Finally, Obama must sign an executive order to meet the urgent needs of the AND . Such an action will instill immediate good will among the Cuban people. With these three objectives accomplished, Cuba policy will once again be back in the AND and open the door to dealing effectively with our own hemisphere~'s many challenges.

Cuba will say yes – it needs desperately needs new capital to aid economic reforms Iglesias, 12 – Commander, US Navy. Paper submitted for the Master of Strategic Studies Degree at the the US Army War College (Carlos, "United States Security Policy Implications of a Post-Fidel Cuba" []) GOC = Government of Cuba, FAR = Cuban military

For Cuba, the destitute economy can wait no longer. The Cuban Minister of AND mains, and other critical infrastructure are in advanced stages of disrepair."76 This national disrepair signals an immense latent demand for infrastructure rehabilitation. The magnitude of the need for public goods developments alone is staggering. One estimate assessed the requirements at just over %248 billion.77 FDI at these levels would be most welcomed by U.S. capital and if invested, would help prime the Cuban economic engine. 24