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Cuban attempts at offshore drilling are inevitable – only a rapid U.S. response can prevent spills
Bert and Clayton 12 – Melissa, 2011-12 Military Fellow, U.S. Coast Guard, and Blake, Fellow for Energy and National Security (“Addressing the Risk of a Cuban Oil Spill,” March, [|http://www.cfr.org/cuba/addressing-risk-cuban-oil-spill/p27515)//SEP] Defending U.S. Interests An oil well blowout in Cuban waters... the United States risks a second Deepwater Horizon, this time from Cuba.

Status quo efforts are insufficient to stop an oil spill – general and pre-approved licenses are needed to solve
CDA, 12 – Center for Democracy in the Americas, nonprofit devoted to changing American policy towards the countries of the Americas (“Not Like Oil and Water: Cuba and the U.S. Can Cooperate on Drilling,”http://cubacentral.wordpress.com/2012/09/07/not-like-oil-and-water-cuba-and-the-us-can-cooperate-on-drilling/)//SEP The Environmental Defense Fund recently released a report called [|//Bridging the Gulf//] in which __... and technology to Cuba for use during a significant oil spill.__

Alternative methods of spill containment fail in Cuban waters – only U.S. techniques solve
Bert and Clayton, 12 – Melissa, 2011-12 Military Fellow, U.S. Coast Guard, and Blake, Fellow for Energy and National Security (“Addressing the Risk of a Cuban Oil Spill,” March, [|http://www.cfr.org/cuba/addressing-risk-cuban-oil-spill/p27515)//SEP] Washington cannot count on the technical know-how of Cuba’s ... __like containment booms____ineffective.__

Oil spills are very likely without advanced U.S. drilling technology – which no country can use under the embargo
Davenport, 11 (Coral, National Journal, “Drill, Bebe, Drill,” 7/28, [|http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/will-sloppy-drilling-off-the-coast-of-cuba-threaten-florida-gulf-beaches--20110728)//SEP] But the potential of a closer relationship with Cuba comes with a terrifying specter : __...__issues special advance licenses granting U.S. companies the ability to travel to Cuban waters to give aid in a disaster. Cuban officials are also cautiously indicating interest in cooperating with the U.S. on the plan, despite the embargo.

Oil spill casts the final blow to Florida’s coral reefs– even a few days delay would be catastrophic
(Kaylee, “ What if Cuba’s Offshore Oil Project, Only 100 Miles From Florida, Goes Wrong?”, Popular Mechanics, November 2, 2011, [|http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/coal-oil-gas/what-if-cubas-offshore-oil-project-only-100-miles-from-florida-goes-wrong)//TWR] Cuba’s enormous offshore oil potential, discovered several years ago, lies in Gulf waters even deeper than those where BP’s Deepwater Horizon ... The moment a spill reaches U.S. waters, though, the green light is on. "We have a robust response plan put together by the Coast Guard with industry to address any pollution in U.S. waters."
 * Thompson, 11- ** Freelance writer focused on science, environmental, and outdoor stories

Ocean biodiversity key to survival
Craig, 3 - Attorneys’ Title Professor of Law and Associate Dean for Environmental Programs at Florida State University (Robin Kundis, “ARTICLE: Taking Steps Toward Marine Wilderness Protection? Fishing and Coral Reef Marine Reserves in Florida and Hawaii,” McGeorge Law Review, Winter 2003, 34 McGeorge L. Rev. 155) Biodiversity and ecosystem function arguments for conserving marine ecosystems also exist, just as they do for terrestrial ecosystems, ... really do not know what we are doing to the sea and hence should be preserving marine wilderness whenever we can - especially when the United States has within its territory relatively pristine marine ecosystems that may be unique in the world.

U.S. embargo makes drilling slow and ineffective now
Krauss & Cave, 12 (Clifford and Damien, New York Times, “Cuba’s Prospects for an Oil-Fueled Economic Jolt Falter With Departure of Rig,” 11/9, [] ) Cuba’s hopes of reviving its economy with an oil boom have produced little more than three dry holes ,...for the rig’s arrival were first made several years ago. Cuba produces a small amount of oil and relies on Venezuela to provide around 115,000 barrels a day at highly subsidized rates, in exchange for the services of Cuban doctors and other professionals. Venezuelan production has been sliding steeply in recent years, and Cuban officials have been unnerved by the health problems of Venezuela’s president, Hugo Chávez, a crucial ally for the island.

Venezuelan cutoff is inevitable and devastates Cuba’s economy overnight – offshore drilling solves
CDA, 11 – Center for Democracy in Americas, nonprofit devoted to changing U.S. policy towards the countries of the Americas, (CAs Cuba plans to drill in the Gulf of Mexico, U.S. policy poses needless risks to our national interest,” [|http://democracyinamericas.org/pdfs/Cuba_Drilling_and_US_Policy.pdf)//MM] Cuba’s arrangement with Venezuela is unsustainable over the long-term. ... (including Angola, Russia, Algeria, South Africa, and Brazil) that produce oil. But the better solution may lie offshore if supplies are recoverable and in amounts that meet Cuba’s own domestic requirements.

Venezuelan oil discount is unsustainable – Maduro will be susceptible to domestic pressure to reduce aid
Keppel, 13 - Economist, writer, and producer with a focus on the Americas, MA International Affairs, Columbia University (Stephen, “What Chávez's Death Means for Cuba, Venezuela and the U.S.” ABC News, March 16, 2013, [] ) Upon hearing news of the death of Hugo Chávez, scores of Venezuelans gathered in cautious celebration in Doral, a South Florida community ... it appears that __Maduro __will win. But he will face a tough economic situation. Plus, he __ lacks the charisma of Chávez and may not be able to maintain popularity if things get tougher. __

Offshore oil development leads to Cuban political and economic stability
Pinon, 11 – Visiting Research Fellow at the Latin American and Caribbean Center’s Cuban Research Institute at FIU (Jorge, Spring, "Why the United States and Cuba Collaborate (and What Could Happen If They Don't)," casgroup.fiu.edu/pages/docs/2157/1306356964_Hemisphere_Vol._20.pdf)//SEP If Cuba’s suspected but yet undiscovered hydrocarbon reserves are proven real, it will take between three and five years to develop them fully. ... Cuban energy policy should embrace energy conservation, modernization of the energy infrastructure, and balance in sourcing oil/gas supplies and renewable energy sources that protect the island’s environment. The country would benefit from the guidance of a variety of partners, including the United States.

Developing just a few wells solves Cuban dependence on Venezuela – majority of the discovered oil will go to Cuba
Katusa, 11(Marin, 11/1, 321Energy, “Will Offshore Oil Lubricate U.S.-Cuban Relations?” ttp://www.321energy.com/editorials/casey/casey110111.html)//SEP And yes, __finding and developing oil resources in Cuban waters would provide a major boost to the country's struggling economy and would help to reduce its total dependence on__ oil-rich, leftist ally __Venezuela...____so a few good wells would make a marked difference for the Caribbean nation.__

Cuban instability results in Latin American instability, terrorism, and democratic backsliding
Gorrell, 5 – Lieutenant Colonel (Tim, “CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS?” 3/18, [] ) Regardless of the succession, under the current U.S. policy, Cuba’s problems of a post Castro transformation only worsen. In addition to Cubans on the island, there will be those in exile who will return claiming authority. And there are remnants of the dissident community within Cuba who will attempt to exercise similar authority.... Or should the U.S. pursue a new approach to Cuba in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro Cuba?

Caribbean instability causes bioterrorism and LNG explosions
Bryan, 1 – Director of the Caribbean Program, North/South Center & Stephen, Senior Fellow Council of Foreign Relations (Anthony T., “Terrorism, Porous Borders, and Homeland Security: The Case for U.S.-Caribbean Cooperation,” 10-21, [|http://www.cfr.org/publication/4844/terrorism_porous_borders_and _homeland_ security.html] ) Terrorist acts can take place anywhere. The Caribbean is no exception. ... Again, //Caribbean countries are// as //vulnerable// as anywhere else //to the clandestine manufacture and deployment of biological weapons// within national borders.

Single LNG tanker explosion is equal to fifty-five Hiroshima bombs – outweighs nuclear war
Lovin,1 (Amory B., Chief Scientist of the [|Rocky Mountain Institute], and L. Hunter Lovin, President – National Capitalism and Co-Founder – Rocky Mountain Institute, “Brittle Power: Energy Strategy for National Security”, [] ) About nine percent of such a tankerload of LNG will probably, if spilled onto water, boil to gas in about five minutes. ... The energy content of a single standard LNG tanker (one hundred twenty-five thousand cubic meters) is equivalent to seven-tenths of a megaton of TNT, or about //fifty-five Hiroshima bombs.//

Now is key – China is shoring up influence in Cuba
Boston Globe, 2/9 (“Cuba’s reforms pave way for new US policy, too”, 2013, http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/editorials/2013/02/09/cuba-reform-create-opportunity-drag-policy-into-century/xER2NTTXGsxdLej0miHwFM/story.html) Relations between the U nited S tates and Cuba have been stuck since the U nited S tates imposed a full economic embargo ... Raul Castro’s recent decision to lift travel restrictions on Cuban citizens is similarly momentous — and signals that //the timing is ripe// for a new diplomatic agenda with Cuba.

Cooperative drilling boosts U.S. influence in Latin America and prevents Chinese incursion
Benjamin-Alvadaro, 6 – **Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha** Given that there are no formal diplomatic of economic relations between the governments of the United States and Cuba, ...Cuba totaling more than $1 billion dollars over the past four years under conditions that are less than optimal circumstances but have well-served the commercial interests of all parties involved.
 * (** Jonathan, Report for the Cuban Research Institute, “The Current Status and Future Prospects for Oil Exploration in Cuba: A Special,” http://cri.fiu.edu/research/commissioned-reports/oil-cuba-alvarado.pdf)

Chinese influence in Latin America causes Taiwan war
Fergusson, 12 – Researcher at Royal Society for the Arts, Master of Science, China in the International Arena, University of Glasgow **(**Robert, “The Chinese Challenge to the Monroe Doctrine,” http://www.e-ir.info/2012/07/23/does-chinese-growth-in-latin-america-threaten-american-interests/) Taiwan – domestic, or foreign policy? ¶ China’s goals in the region amount to more than the capture of natural resources. ...The U.S.A might find itself in a position where it could no longer withstand the diplomatic pressure to allow the PRC to conclude a settlement on Taiwan, //perhaps by force//.

Taiwan is likely to escalate to nuclear war
Lowther, 3/16 (William, Taipei Times, citing a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, “Taiwan could spark nuclear war: report,” []) Taiwan is the//most likely potential crisis//that could//trigger a nuclear war// between China and the US ... Although conflict “mercifully” seems unlikely at this point, the report concludes that “it cannot be ruled out and may become increasingly likely if we are unwise or unlucky.” ¶ The report says: “ With both sides possessing and looking set to retain //formidable nuclear weapons arsenals//, such a conflict would be tremendously dangerous and quite possibly //devastating//.”