Ben+and+Alison

=Afghanistan - Hegemony, Insurgency=

=** Plan Text **=

** Plan: The United States federal government should reduce nearly all military presence necessary to pursue counterinsurgency in Afghanistan. **
=** Advantage I: Hegemony **=

** First – credibility. Obama announced a July 2011 withdrawal date, but at most only small numbers will leave and it depends on conditions on the ground. **
When President __Obama announced__ late … concessions to their deadline.
 * CBS News 6/24 ** (Brian Montopoli, 6/24/10, " July 2011 Deadline for Afghanistan Troop Withdrawal: Politics Over Policy? ", http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20008781-503544.html)

** The July 2011 announcement destroyed the __perception__ of US commitment to Afghanistan **
__ It is true, __ as Schlesinger … __Pakistan, Iran, and even Russia__.
 * Rubin, 10 ** – resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute; senior lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School's Center for Civil-Military Relations; and a senior editor of the //Middle East Quarterly//. (Michael, Public Square, 3/8, “The Afghanistan Withdrawal: Why Obama Was Wrong to Insist on a Deadline,” http://www.michaelrubin.org/7033/afghanistan-withdrawal-deadline)

** Counterinsurgency doctrine is overstretching the US military and exhausting American leadership – withdrawing to a co **** u nterterrorism strategy is vital to preventing great power challengers **
Over the winter break I … __ (China, a reinvigorated Russia __ ).
 * Kretkowski, 10 ** – Frequently assists think tank in conferences and other work products that aid DoD's long-term thinking about threats that may not be addressable via weapons platforms. Spent six months in Afghanistan working with Army public affairs. (Paul, “Against COIN, for CT in Afghanistan and Elsewhere”, 1/7, Beacon (a blog), http://softpowerbeacon.blogspot.com/2010/01/against-coin-for-ct-in-afghanistan-and.html)

** Afghanistan is a quagmire of attrition warfare that is destroying US morale and readiness. **
__ America is losing the war … __ evil, welcoming __arms of extremists.__
 * Kuhner, 9 - ** the president of the Edmund Burke Institute for American Renewal (Jeffrey, Washington Times, “Obama’s quagmire; US should look to its own interests,” 9/7, Lexis Academic)

** This will obliterate American primacy **
__ Since we invaded __ Iraq six … __US-ally Georgia__ this past year.
 * Pyne, 9 - ** Vice Chair of the Utah State Legislative Compensation Commission and Vice President of the Association of the United States Army's Utah chapter and a Vice President of the Salt Lake Total Force Chapter of the Military Officers Association of America (David, “Obama failing our troops in Afghanistan,” 11/7, http://westernfrontamerica.com/2009/11/07/obama-failing-troops-afghanistan/)

** American primacy is vital to accessing every major impact—the only threat to world peace is if we allow it to collapse **
A grand strategy based on … to the economic prosperity it provides.
 * Thayer, 6 - ** professor of security studies at Missouri State (Bradley, The National Interest, “In Defense of Primacy”, November/December, p. 32-37)

** Maintaining a large counterinsurgency strategy will bankrupt the US, end the dollar and collapse global US financial influence **
Bounding Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan,” Small Wars Journal, 10/21, http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2009/10/toward-a-kilcullenbiden-plan/ Just do the math - __with 63,000 …__ settlement as advocated by Vice-President Joe Biden.
 * Corn, 9 ** – Ph.D. from the University of Paris and is a graduate of the U.S. Naval War College, currently on leave from the US State Department (Tony, “Toward a Kilcullen-Biden Plan?

** Economic leadership prevents economic collapse—leadership preserves resilience **
Although the spread of nuclear weapons, with the … __resemble a fleet of cars without gasoline.__
 * Mandelbaum ** **2005** – Professor and Director of the American Foreign Policy Program at Johns Hopkins – 2005 [Michael, The Case for Goliath: How America Acts As the World’s Governmen t in the Twenty-First Century, p. 192-195]

** That goes nuclear without economic leadership **
At best, an American withdrawal … __ in large numbers, of nuclear weapons __.
 * Mandelbaum 2005 ** – Professor and Director of the American Foreign Policy Program at Johns Hopkins – 2005 [Michael, The Case for Goliath: How America Acts As the World’s Government in the Twenty-First Century, p. 224]

** The plan solves – reducing to a counterterrorism focus creates sustainable presence, and prevents vacillations between engagement and isolationism **
__ The best Afghan policy … __ in the long-term, less will be more.
 * Stewart, 9- ** Ryan Family Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (9/16/09, Rory, “The Future of Afghanistan,” http://www.hks.harvard.edu/news-events/news/testimonies/rory-stewart-on-afghanistan)

** Obama will sell the plan as a drawdown to a lighter but permanent commitment to Afghanistan – this resolves confusion over the withdrawal deadline and restores US credibility **
But this moderate tone gains Obama … __ but a much greater focus on Kashmir __ .1
 * Stewart, 10 ** - Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at Harvard, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (Rory, “Afghanistan: What Could Work”, New York Review of Books, 1/14, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2010/jan/14/afghanistan-what-could-work/?page=3)

** The plan’s rejection of counterinsurgency creates a doctrinal shift towards selective engagement that can sustain US presence globally **
__ An effort to conduct "counterinsurgency" … military capable of applying overwhelming force. __
 * Gventer, 9 ** - Senior Defense Analyst at the RAND Corporation and a former deputy assistant secretary of defense. She served two tours in Iraq, including a year as a senior adviser to General Peter Chiarelli, the operational commander in Iraq in 2006 (Celeste, “False Promise of 'Counterinsurgency'”, 12/1, http://www.rand.org/commentary/2009/12/01/NYT.html)

** Restricting our mission to counterterrorism frees up resources to pay down debt **

 * Kretkowski, 10 ** – Frequently assists think tank in conferences and other work products that aid DoD's long-term thinking about threats that may not be addressable via weapons platforms. Spent six months in Afghanistan working with Army public affairs. (Paul, “Against COIN, for CT in Afghanistan and Elsewhere”, 1/7, Beacon (a blog), [])
 * Benefits of a CT Focus ** __Pulling the … warn off adversaries, and sway those in the middle__

=** Advantage 2: the war **=

** Counterinsurgency failure inevitable – the mountainous terrain and impossible troop requirements mean the Taliban can hide forever **
__ The counterinsurgency strategy and surge in Iraq … __ of the country and its political structures.
 * Stewart, 10 ** - Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at Harvard, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (Rory, “Afghanistan: What Could Work”, New York Review of Books, 1/14, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2010/jan/14/afghanistan-what-could-work/?page=3)

** A large military footprint combined with the perception of an illegitimate government make crushing the Taliban impossible – it can recruit faster than we can kill **
__ Are the basic premises of our current … and political force in Afghanistan. __
 * Galston 10 - ** Senior Fellow of Governance Studies @ Brookings (William, Senior Fellow of Governance Studies @ Brookings, “A Question of Life and Death: U.S. Policy in Afghanistan,” Brookings, June 15th, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2010/0615_afghanistan_galston.aspx)

** Pashtun nationalism and the lack of history with a strong state makes combatting corruption or raising a sustainable security force impossible. **
In addition, **__there is no state …__** in support of the discredited Karzai regime.
 * Dorronsoro, 09 ** - visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (9/23/09, Gilles, The National Interest, “Afghanization,” http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=22218)

** Nationalism means that even if the US won every battle it couldn’t beat the insurgency **
Afghanistan may be the right war, … __regions better than any foreign forces ever could__.
 * Dorronsoro, 09 ** - v i siting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (2/9/09, Gilles, The National Interest, “Going South in Afghanistan,” http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=20794)

** First – Pakistan. A large counterinsurgency footprint drives insurgents to Pakistan, mobilizes the Pakistani Taliban and will cause Pakistan to collapse **

 * __ Akhtar, 10- __** professor of international relations, and a senior analyst & writer. He was the dean of faculty of management, Baluchistan university, and former chairman of International Relations Department, Karachi university (1/26/10, Shameem, “Pakistan’s Instability : The US War Factor,” http://www.islamonline.net/servlet/Satellite?c=Article_C&cid=1262372328640&pagename=Zone-English-Muslim_Affairs/MAELayout#**1)**
 * __ If it is a war against extremists and militancy … may erupt at any moment, thus destabilizing the state. __**

Pakistan collapse causes global nuclear conflict – draws in China, India and Russia
Pitt, 9 ** - a New York Times and internationally bestselling author of two books: "War on Iraq: What Team Bush Doesn't Want You to Know" and "The Greatest Sedition Is Silence." (5/8/09, William, “Unstable Pakistan Threatens the World,” http://www.arabamericannews.com/news/index.php?mod=article&cat=commentary&article=2183) ** **
 * But a suicide bomber in Pakistan … serious about addressing the situation. So should we all.

Risk of nuclear terrorism is high – probably an attack will come from al Qaeda by 2013
Hall, 10 ** (Mimi, USA Today, “Obama seeks front against nuclear terror”, 4/12, http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/20 1 0 - 04-11-nukesummit_N.htm ** **
 * WASHINGTON — President Obama is asking world leaders … __ mass destruction will be used in a terrorist attack" by 2013 __.

Afghanistan is a vital safe haven for al Qaeda – terrorism is inevitable but nuclear risks can be reduced is the US drives them out
Arkedis, 9 ** - director of the National Security Project at the Progressive Policy Institute. He was a counterterrorism analyst with the Naval Criminal Investigative Service from 2002 to 2007 (Jim, “Why Al Qaeda Wants a Safe Haven”, 10/23, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/10/23/got_safe_haven) **
 * __ I spent five years as a counterterrorism … to deny al Qaeda the only physical space it can access __ . **

Nuclear terrorism causes extinction
Morgan, 9 ** - Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin Campus - South Korea (Dennis, Futures, November, “World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race,” Science Direct) **
 * In a remarkable website on nuclear war, … __ unimaginable misery and suffering in a nuclear winter __ . **

Gradual withdrawal while maintaining a counterterrorism strategy allows more effective US leadership in the war on terror and maximizes US credibility
Chellany, 09 ** - professor of strategic studies at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi (9/14/09, Brahma, Japan Times, “An Advantagous U.S. Exit,” http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20090914bc.html) **
 * When the administration's principal war … __ the deep-rooted military-mullah alliance. __**

A substantial drawdown to a purely counterterrorism presence will maximize US influence in Central Asia and contain instability and terrorism
Simon, and Stevenson, 9 ** * adjunct Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, AND **Professor of Strategic Studies at the US Naval War College, (Steven and Jonathan, “Afghanistan: How Much is Enough?” Survival, 51:5, 47 – 67, October 2009 http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/section?content=a915362559&fulltext=7132409) An effort on that scale would … as the residual problem that it has, in fact, become.

** A counterterrorism posture empirically works – it reduces the threat of terrorism and can provide actionable intelligence without undermining US credibility **
It will therefore take about … __ is the best alternative for the U __ nited __S__tates.
 * Long, 10 ** - assistant professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs (Austin, “Small is Beautiful: The Counterterrorism Option in Afghanistan,” Orbis, Spring 2010, Science Direct)

** Withdrawal of combat troops will immediately turn the population against the Taliban and shore up Afghan government legitimacy **
This three-zone strategy is not, //per se…// __ Afghanistan’s peripheral regions. __
 * Dorronsoro,9 - ** Visiting Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (January 2009, Gilles, “Focus and Exit: An Alternative Strategy for the Afghan War,” http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/afghan_war-strategy.pdf)