Eva+Farber+&+Justin+Tsang

NEG
-T-unconditional, Pan K, Xi good, case, Japan da -Neolib, T, State Department da, case -T-unconditional, space leadership da, Xi bad, case -T-qpq, elections, space leadership, case
 * 1NCs:**

-xi good + case -elections + case -T-qpq -neolib
 * 2NR:**


 * AFF**

Plan
====The United States Federal government should negotiate an agreement with the People’s Republic of China to not deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in Northeast Asia if the People’s Republic of China agrees to fully enforce United Nations sanctions against the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. ====

North Korea is developing warheads and delivery systems that destabilize the region escalate every conflict and risk nuclear miscalculation. Allowing development to continue ensures nuclear war.
McLennon, Garth. (Hudson Institute, his writing focuses primarily on American foreign policy) "Needle in a Haystack: How North Korea Could Fight a Nuclear War ~| 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea." 38 North Informed Analysis of North Korea RSS. Sponsored by The U.S.-Korea Institute at SAIS, The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, 13 June 2016. Web. 09 July 2016. . Since factors.
 * McLennon 6/13 **

North korean proliferation risks a korean war which threatens the entire planet
Peter **Hayes, &** Michael Hamel-**Green, 2009** (Honorary Professor, Center for International Security Studies & professor in social sciences in the College of Arts at Victoria University Melbourne) The Path Not Taken, The Way Still Open: Denuclearizing The Korean Peninsula And Northeast Asia, Dec. 14, 2009. Retrieved Apr. 24, 2016 from http://apjjf.org/-Peter-Hayes/3267/article.html The community.

North Korean nuclearization means sale of nuclear material on the global arms market – risks terrorist usage of a dirty bomb
In leverage.
 * Maxwell 11 Col. David S. Maxwell, USA, is Chief, Strategic Initiatives Group, US Army Special Operatoins Command; a fellow at the Insititute of Korean-American Studies; sits on the board of advisors for Small Wars Journal, and is a member of the faulty at the National War College (Maxwell, David S. "Irregular Warfare on the Korean Peninsula." **Confronting Security Challenges on the Korean Peninsula. Marine University Press; 2011. Print.) DD

Nuclear terror leads to extinction
Myhrvold 14 - chief executive and founder of Intellectual Ventures and a former chief technology officer at Microsoft

Nathan P, Strategic Terrorism: A Call to Action, cco.dodlive.mil/files/2014/04/Strategic'Terrorism'corrected'II.pdf Technology behind.

Nuclear development must be halted soon- delay makes it impossible to reverse
Mitchel B. **Wallerstein,** 12/18/20**15 **(deputy U.S. assistant secretary of defense for counterproliferation policy from 1993 to 1997 and the current President of Baruch College), WASHINGTON POST, Ignoring North Korea’s nuclear threat could prove to be a dangerous mistake, Dec. 18, 2015. from https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-price-of-inattention-to-north-korea/2015/12/18/a3eb5308-9d3b-11e5-8728-1af6af208198'story.html?tid=a'inl It destroyed.

China not fully enforcing sanctions- North Korea is still importing banned items
Elizabeth **Shim,** 5/11/**16** (Journalist focusing on global Asian cultures for United Press International), North Korea keeps importing banned components from China, analyst says UPI http://www.upi.com/Top'News/World-News/2016/05/11/North-Korea-keeps-importing-banned-components-from-China-analyst-says/3631462990916/?spt=sec&or=tn __North__ __bans__.

THAAD deployment destroys Chinese support for sanctions enforcement.
Speaking ties.
 * Panda 7/8**/16 (Ankit Panda - editor at The Diplomat. He writes on security, politics, economics, and culture. – "It's Official: The United States and South Korea Agree to Deploy THAAD" – 7/8/16 - http://thediplomat.com/2016/07/its-official-the-united-states-and-south-korea-agree-to-deploy-thaad/)/TK

China is key to the success or failure of sanctions
Julian **Ryall,** 4-13-20**16**, "Is North Korea finally close to collapse?," Deutsche Welle, http://www.dw.com/en/is-north-korea-finally-close-to-collapse/a-19183141 __If__ Korea.

Effective sanctions block North Korean nuclear and missile development programs.
[Scott A Snyder, April 2016, National Committee On American Foreign Policy, A U.S.-ROK-China dialogue on North Korea’s Nuclear Stalemate: Update, Review, and Assessment, https://www.ncafp.org/2016/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/NCAFP'US-China-ROK-Trilateral-Report'April-2016.pdf, July 10 2016, KC] __ Experts __ crisis.
 * Snyder, 2016** Senior Fellow at Korea Studies

THAAD deployment will destroy China-South Korea relations
China’s added.
 * Tiezzi** 2/25/**16 (Shannon Tiezzi - Editor at The Diplomat. Her main focus is on China, and she writes on China’s foreign relations, domestic politics, and economy. Shannon previously served as a research associate at the U.S.-China Policy Foundation, where she hosted the weekly television show China Forum. She received her A.M. from Harvard University and her B.A. from The College of William and Mary. Shannon has also studied at Tsinghua University in Beijing – "China Warns THAAD Deployment Could Destroy South Korea Ties 'in an Instant'" – 2/25/16 - http://thediplomat.com/2016/02/china-warns-thaad-deployment-could-destroy-south-korea-ties-in-an-instant/)/TK**

China-South Korea Relations key to South Korean trade exports and promoting stability
" China- said.
 * BBC 14 (BBC Worldwide Monitoring – "Chinese president hopes to inject vitality into ties with South Korea" – 7/4/14 - http://www.lexisnexis.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/hottopics/lnacademic/)/TK**

Exports, especially to China, are key to the South Korean economy
NEW China.
 * The Economist 15 (The Economist - an English-language weekly newspaper owned by the Economist Group and edited in offices based in London – "Why a big slump in South Korea’s exports matters" – 9/1/15 - http://www.economist.com/news/business-and-finance/21662952-steepest-year-drop-trade-2009-mark-sagging-global-demand-why-big-slump)/TK**

As long as South Korea’s economy remains strong, it is a key first step to bettering climate change - has the stance to lead the world by promoting green growth
Korea’s Paris.
 * O’Donnell 15** (Jill Kosch O’Donnell – an independent writer with a special interest in energy policy. She holds an M.A. in International Relations and Economics from the Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies – "How Korea Can Lead on Climate Change" – 11/24/15 - http://blogs.cfr.org/asia/2015/11/24/how-korea-can-lead-on-climate-change/)/TK

South Korea is prepared and wants to lead the process
So uth leader.
 * Schmidt 15** (Jake Schmidt - directs National Resources Defense Council’s International program with a team of experts and partners working on climate change, clean energy, biogems, and sustainable development in India, Latin America, Canada, and at the international level. Schmidt holds a bachelor's degree in economics from Muhlenberg College and a M.P.P. in environmental policy, with a certificate in ecological economics from the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland – "South Korea Announces Climate Target in Advance of Paris Climate Agreement" – 6/30/15 - https://www.nrdc.org/experts/jake-schmidt/south-korea-announces-climate-target-advance-paris-climate-agreement)/TK

Anthropogenic warming causes extinction – IPCC and scientist consensus
The said.
 * Hannam and Snow 14 (Peter Hannam - Environment Editor at The Sydney Morning Herald. He covers broad environmental issues ranging from climate change to renewable energy for Fairfax Media. Deborah Snow - senior writer with The Sydney Morning Herald and a former federal political reporter for the Australian Financial Review – *Article cites IPCC report* – "Climate change could make humans extinct, warns health expert" – 3/31/14 - http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-change-could-make-humans-extinct-warns-health-expert-20140330-35rus.html)/TK**

Recent SCS ruling puts US-China miscalc on the brink, failure to de-escalate tensions result in US china war
Risk position.
 * CNN **7/13/**16** "Has South China Sea ruling set scene for next global conflict?" http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/13/asia/south-china-sea-global-conflict-risks/index.html?utm'source=feedburner&utm'medium=email&utm'campaign=Feed%3A+cnn%2FCVMu+(CNN+Top+Stories)

THAAD kills relations- prevents diplomatic resolution of SCS disputes.
SEOUL, South Korea — __Already-high__ __strengthened."__
 * Gamel, 2016 **[Kim Gamel** **a Senior Correspondent for Stars and Stripes, July 10, 2016, Korean Penninsula Tensions Raise Stakes for Regional Security, Stars and Stripes, http://www.stripes.com/news/korean-peninsula-tensions-raise-stakes-for-regional-security-1.418405?utm'source=Sailthru&utm'medium=email&utm'campaign=Defense%20EBB%2007-11-16&utm'term=Editorial%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief, July 11, 2016 KC]

Conflict in SCS goes nuclear
China wrote.
 * Tikhonova 15** (Polina Tikhonova** **is a writer, journalist and a certified translator Master's Degree in English Philology from the University of Oxford and a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism from the Saint Petersburg State University) http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/11/us-nuclear-war-south-china-sea/ "US Faces Nuclear War Threat Over South China Sea – Chinese Professor"



KOREA 1AC:
====**Plan** - The United States federal government should diplomatically engage the People’s Republic of China by offering to withdraw US military presence from the Korean peninsula in exchange for China securing peaceful unification of the Korean peninsula.====

The wait-and-see approach towards North Korea is unsustainable – delays ensure collapse or uncoordinated interventions, either cause a second Korean war (0:38)

 * Kydd 2015** – Prof of Political Science at UW Madison

Andrew H, "Pulling the Plug: Can There Be a Deal with China on Korean Unification?", The Washington Quarterly Volume 38, Issue 2, 2015, p 63-77 The succeed.

Collapse opens a nuclear Pandora’s box (0:21)

 * Spector 2015** - Executive Director of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies’ James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies

Leonard, "The Future Impact of North Korea’s Emerging Nuclear Deterrent on Nuclear Nonproliferation," November, 38north.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/NKNF-Spector-Emerging-Nuclear-Deterrent.pdf Civil Box.25 grave for Kim Jong Un and the North Korean people alike.

Collapse causes loose nukes and bioterror (0:17)

 * Lind 2015** - Prof of government at Dartmouth

Jennifer, "Korean Unification: Before the Bonanza," Feb 12, http://38north.org/2015/02/jlind021215/ But borders.

No checks can prevent lashout by Kim and the spread of WMDs to terrorists (0:40)

 * Peters 2015** - Research Fellow, joined the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction

Robert, "The WMD Challenges Posed by a Collapse of North Korea," Apr 15, 38north.org/2015/04/rpeters041415/ The insurmountable.
 * Edited for gendered language

Kim will go down swinging, using CBWs to kill millions (0:27)

 * Kazianis 2016** - former Exectuive Editor of the National Interest

Harry, "Why the World Should Fear North Korea's Biological Weapons," Jan 18, nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/why-the-world-should-fear-north-koreas-biological-weapons-14951 While peninsula.

Cooperation is necessary to ensure peaceful reunification in the event of collapse (0:17)

 * Terry 2014** - former analyst at the CIA and a Senior Research Scholar at Columbia University’s Weatherhead East Asian Institute

Sue Mi, A Korea Whole and Free, July/Aug 2014 Foreign Affairs But collapse.

Through either a carrot or a stick, China’s leverage is necessary to force out North Korean leadership and ensure a peaceful transition (0:25)

 * Kydd 2015** – Prof of Political Science at UW Madison

Andrew H, "Pulling the Plug: Can There Be a Deal with China on Korean Unification?", The Washington Quarterly Volume 38, Issue 2, 2015, p 63-77 Finally, mistrust.

However, China won’t push for regime change and unification absent US concessions – risking a nuclear war on the peninsula (0:35)

 * Kydd 2015** – Prof of Political Science at UW Madison

Andrew H, "Pulling the Plug: Can There Be a Deal with China on Korean Unification?", The Washington Quarterly Volume 38, Issue 2, 2015, p 63-77 What precedent.

It is the only way to provide stability in North East Asia, prevent nuclear conflict, and lift 25 million people from poverty (0:20)

 * Terry 2014** - former analyst at the CIA and a Senior Research Scholar at Columbia University’s Weatherhead East Asian Institute

Sue Mi, "A Korea Whole and Free," July/Aug 2014 Foreign Affairs The parallel.

A nuclear war on the peninsula would kill millions, involve massive amounts of fallout, and risk escalation (0:23)

 * Mount 2015** - Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relation

Adam, The Strategic Logic of Nuclear Restraint, Survival: Global Politics and Strategy Volume 57, Issue 4, 2015, p. 53-76 As impossible.

Independently, the plan bolsters the Korean economy (0:21)

 * Terry 2014** - former analyst at the CIA and a Senior Research Scholar at Columbia University’s Weatherhead East Asian Institute

Sue Mi, "A Korea Whole and Free," July/Aug 2014 Foreign Affairs But vitality.

Korean economic leadership key to global growth, green economy, cybersecurity, prolif, terror, and climate (0:37) (2:20)
Kim, 13 – Sung-han, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Republic of Korea ("Global Governance and Middle Powers: South Korea’s Role in the G20," CFR, February 2013, http://www.cfr.org/south-korea/global-governance-middle-powers-south-koreas-role-g20/p30062 //red) Many i so.

=solvency=

Absent the negotiations, conflict between the US and China is probable

 * Whyte** Sep 9, **2015** - graduate of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University

Leon, "Evolution of the US-ROK Alliance: Is There a Post-Unification Future? Pt. 2," thediplomat.com/2015/09/evolution-of-the-us-rok-alliance-is-there-a-post-unification-future-pt-2/ Without North Korea, or in the immediate aftermath of a North Korean collapse, the chances of conflict between the United States and the PRC possibly will rise if the two giants end up touching on two different sides of the Yalu River, leaving Korea forever a shrimp between two whales. According to prominent offensive realist thinker John Mearsheimer, as China continues to grow economically and militarily it will seek to establish a regional hegemony in Asia Pacific and push the United States out. Following this framework, smaller states like Korea, Japan and others will join with America to balance against a rising China, but this will increase the chances of conflict. Under this scenario, maintaining current American alliances will be a threat to China and vital to America for maintaining its current role. Because of this potential for conflict, planning, discussion, and transparency about intentions should start now. China’s unwillingness to discuss these issues openly is understandable, but there should be efforts to bring them up discretely with the Chinese while openly stating America’s friendly intentions in East Asia and in Korea. This effort should not only be bilateral between the United States and China, but should also include South Korea, and emphasis should be placed on the ways that China can benefit from having a more stable and prosperous neighbor.

Withdraw will stoke Korean nationalism accelerates unification

 * Kydd 2015** – Prof of Political Science at UW Madison

Andrew H, Pulling the Plug: Can There Be a Deal with China on Korean Unification?, The Washington Quarterly Volume 38, Issue 2, 2015, p 63-77 The role of South Korea is the key factor to overcome China-U.S. mistrust. In this regard, Korean nationalism is a crucial asset. Grassroots opposition to U.S. troops in Korea has been a long simmering problem for the alliance, exacerbated by occasional flare-ups when U.S. troops are accused of mistreating Koreans. Nationalist opposition to the U.S. presence would undoubtedly grow in a post-unification environment, especially if Korea has committed to U.S. withdrawal and if China is cooperating. This nationalism may represent the greatest assurance to China that the United States would not violate its pledge and attempt to remain in Korea after unification. Similarly, Korean nationalism would help assure the United States that unified Korea will not become a vassal state to China.

===

Solves – Withdraw causes China to Abandon NoKo===

Withdrawing causing China to abandon North Korea

 * Carpenter 2014** - Senior fellow for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute

Ted Galen, "U.S. Should Test China’s Disenchantment with North Korea," www.cato.org/blog/us-should-test-chinas-disenchantment-north-korea Evidence policy.

China says yes - It’s in China’s best interest to guide the unification process, but only an agreed commitment between the US & China can solve

 * Chen 2015** - assistant professor of Government and Public Administration at the University of Macau

Dingding, Sorry, America: China Can't Solve Your North Korea Problem, Jan 26, nationalinterest.org/feature/sorry-america-china-cant-solve-your-north-korea-problem-12110?page=2 That States.

The plan is key to South Korean middle power, preventing war in the region and blocks calls for Korean prolif

 * Glosserman 2016**- executive director of the Pacific Forum, a program of the Center for Strategic and International Studies

Brad and David Santoro, "Ending South Korea's Nuclear Temptation," The Wall Street Journal Asia [Hong Kong] 11 Mar 2016: A.15. South pack.

Andrew H, “Pulling the Plug: Can There Be a Deal with China on Korean Unification?”, The Washington Quarterly Volume 38, Issue 2, 2015, p 63-77