Kyra+and+Maddie

Plan: The United States federal government should remove all of its tactical nuclear weapons from the Republic of Turkey ADVANTAGE 1 Iran

//[J.J.// **//Green//**//, the national security correspondent, and Middle East proliferation expert for WTOP, CSPAN, and Voice of America, on WTOP “Iran ‘Definitely’ Building Nuclear Weapon”.// **//6/14//**///2010,// [|//http://www.wtop.com/?nid=25&sid=1979648//] //] Saker//
 * Initially note – Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons now**

"There is no doubt Iran is definitely building a nuclear weapon .... Hammer says the body of evidence against Iran includes belligerent statements from Iranian officials, human intelligence sources and Iran's own military activity.

In addition to improvements in bilateral relations with its immediate neighbors... **__Turkey therefore will have to seriously reconsider its policy on U.S. nuclear weapons.__**
 * US withdraw of TNW’s from turkey grants them the credibility to prevent Iranian nuclearization**
 * __Kibaroglu 6/7__**/10 (Mustafa, Professor and Vice Chair of the IR dept @ Bilkent U, “Reassessing the Role of U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Turkey”)

[Tulin **__Daloglu,__** Turkey expert for Foreign Policy, “Turkey Takes Sides”, published **__4/16__**/2010. [] ] In principle, ...but the truth is that the only person he will have to blame is himself.
 * Without this credibility Iran will nuclearize**

For President Obama and most of the American foreign-policy apparatus... fear that an Iranian leadership with a handful of nuclear weapons would cause the U.S.'s demise.
 * This causes cascading proliferation**
 * Rubin 9** – senior editor of the Middle East Quarterly, is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and a senior lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School (Michael, October 5, “Bad Options on Iran: An Israeli strike won't suffice”, http://www.meforum.org/2476/bad-options-on-iran )

Further improvements in Iranian missiles would initially .... these states would not resist the temptation to counter Iranian influence by adopting similar nuclear postures.
 * This results in nuclear war**
 * __Inbar 6__** (Efraim, Professor of Political Studies at Bar-Ilan University and Director of its Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies “The Need to Block a Nuclear Iran” Article was Peer Reviewed by David Leitner and Tamara Sternlieb, The Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol 10 No 1 Article 7 March 2006) [], AD: 7-31-09)

//[Uzi Mahnaimi and Sara Baxter, staff writers for The// **//Sunday Times//**//, “Revealed: Israel Plans Nuclear Strike on Iran”, 1/7/20//**//07//**//.// [|//http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article1290331.ece//] //] Saker// Israel has drawn up secret plans to destroy Iran’s ... whose president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has declared that “Israel must be wiped off the map”.
 * ISRAEL AND THE U.S. WILL NUKE IRAN AS SOON AS IT DEVELOPS NUKES – THIS RESULTS IN TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL NUCLEAR WAR.**

//[Tariq Khaitous,// **//Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists//**//, “Why Arab Leaders Worry About Iran’s Nuclear Program”, 5/23/20//**//08//**//.// [|//http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/why-arab-leaders-worry-about-irans-nuclear-program//] //] Saker// The Arab countries also fear that ... Tehran could easily provide the Shiite insurgency with armaments and personnel, crisscrossing both across the long Iran-Iraq border.
 * IRANIAN PROLIF LEADS TO AN ISREALI NUCLEAR STRIKE AND WIDESPREAD TERRORISM.**

We have reached a point in human history ... we will all be losers.
 * terrorist attack would cause extinction**
 * __Sid-Ahmed__** political analyst Sept 1 **__2k4__** (Mohamed, “Extinction” Al-Ahram weekly, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm)

Israel is especially dangerous because its leaders and supporters... Only a worldwide disarmament movement can stop it.
 * Middle east war causes extinction, draws in russia**
 * Moore 9—**BA in pol sci from Wayne State (Carol, Six Escalation Scenarios to Nuclear World War III, 16 February,http://pakalert.wordpress.com/2009/02/16/six-escalation-scenarios-to-nuclear-world-war-iii/

Turkey has quietly held NATO tactical nuclear weapons ... the Turks with whom I met would agree.
 * Independently the existence of Turkish TNW’s causes middle-east wildfire proliferation and war**
 * Bell 2009** (Alexandra, Truman National Security Fellow, Aug 26, “Turkey’s Nuclear Crossroads,” www.Ploughshares.org)

For more than 40 years... contain its chief security concerns, and foster the necessary conditions for the removal of tactical U.S. nuclear weapons from Turkish soil.
 * Turkish nukes don’t deter or serve any purpose – only a risk of the advantage**
 * __Bell and Loehrke 9__** – manager at the Ploughshares Fund, Truman National Security Fellow, writer about U.S nuclear weapons in Turkey and research assistant at the Ploughshares Fund, graduate student at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

//[Sabrina Taverernise, staff writer for the// **//New York Times//**//, “For Turkey, an Embrace of Iran is a Matter of Building Bridges”,// **//6/12//**///2010.// [|//http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/13/world/middleeast/13turkey.html//] //] Saker// At the heart of the current friction ... the Azeri dialect spoken in Iran’s no __ rth. __
 * ONLY TURKEY’S METHOD OF DIPLOMACY CAN CONVICE IRAN TO GIVE UP ITS BOMB.**

ADVANTAGE 2 RUSSIA

U.S.-Russian relations ... Cold War to take place.
 * U.S-Russia relations are low now. If we do not act soon, this will trigger a new Cold War.**
 * Deatsch 09** Amanda Deastsch- Her dissertation for M.A. from Webster University. (“Misperceptions in U.S.-Russia relations: Prospects for a new Cold War?” abstract)

Kolesnikov et al. 08 (Sergei, Rolf Mützenich, Patrik Vankrunklesven, “Time to remove tactical nuclear weapons from Europe?” < []> Dr. Rolf Mützenich has a phD from the University of Bremen in political science, member of SPD, Spokesperson on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament. Patrik Vankrunklesven is a Belgian Senator, and PNND Council Member, Sergei Kolesnikov is a PNND Council Member) However, it will be difficult to move towards ... appeals and through contact with parliamentary colleagues in these countries.
 * removing tactical nuclear weapons from Europe is uniquely key to convincing Russia to reduce its stockpile of nuclear weapons**

__Almost all discussions of nuclear arms ...__ Italy of radiation and fires were simply not addressed.
 * And the proliferation of tactical nuclear weapons is the greatest threat the US faces today- leads to nuclear terrorism and justifies using nukes in war**
 * Turner 2003** (Stansfield, Former Director of the CIA, former admiral in the Navy and acted as Commander in Chief of NATO’s southern flank, currently a senior research scholar at the University of Maryland, College Park School of Public Policy, Forward in the book __Tactical Nuclear Weapons: Emergent Threats in an Evolving Security Environment__)

However, change is in the air. ...remove the weapon__s__ from Europe.
 * US TNW’s will be forced out of every country except turkey in the squo**
 * Podvig 10** (“What to do about tactical nuclear weapons” http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/columnists/pavel-podvig/what-to-do-about-tactical-nuclear-weapons The Bulletin Online) February 25, 2010 Pavel Podvig is a columnist for The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. He works as a research associate at Stanford’s Center for International Security and Cooperation. He headed the Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces Research Project in 1995.

Finally there is the issue of NATO’s ... enough to justify this contradiction.
 * Keeping TNWs in Europe kills American and NATO credibility on nonproliferation**
 * Kristensen 2010** (Hans M., May 10, Federation of American Scientists Security Blog, “US Nuclear Weapons in Europe: Status and Issues”, , > Hans M. Kristensen is Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists. Between 1998 and 2002, Kristensen directed the Nuclear Strategy Project at the Nautilus Institute in Berkeley, CA. Kristensen was a Special Advisor to the Danish Ministry of Defence in 1997-1998 as a member of the Danish Defence Commission, a Danish Ministry of Defence led review of Danish military policy. He was a Senior Researcher with the Nuclear Information Unit of Greenpeace International in Washington D.C from 1991 to 1996, prior to which he coordinated the Greenpeace Nuclear Free Seas Campaign in Denmark, Norway, Finland and Sweden)

Finally, Mr. Chairman, I wish to touch on a subject that, l... all provisions for mutual inspection and accountability will also disappear The stationing of NATO’s TNWs .... deployments and such discussion could begin as early as December 2009.16
 * The impact of continued Russian proliferation is global thermonuclear war**
 * Talbott, 2007** (Strobe, President, the Brookings Institution, “Building a Constructive U.S.-Russian Relationship” – http://www.brookings.edu/testimony/2007/1030_russia_talbott.aspx
 * Removing TNW’s is key to reviving US-Russian relations**
 * Claudine Lamond**, Australian National University (International Relations), June **2009**, “International Security Report” []


 * US-Russia have the ability to maintain a strong relationship – NOW is key**
 * Dmitry V. Suslov**, Deputy Director for Research at the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, May 18, **2010**, “U.S. - Russia relations after the New START treaty” []

The U.S.-Russia relationship has clearly .__.__ 16 working groups dealing with a range of issues.

In these and other ways, ..."If not now, when? If not us, who?"
 * U.S.-RUSSIA RELATIONS CHECK FOUR SCENARIOS OF NUCLEAR WAR**
 * COHEN 1** (Stephen, Prof of Russian Studies at NYU, June 7, http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20010625&c=1&s=cohen)