GT+Dandgaval+Ortiz

__These are known and potential situations that could easily require all or many of the elements of national power to resolve. I__ n view of such global issues, __can the U.S. afford to sustain the status quo and simply let the Cuban situation play out?__ The U.S. is at a crossroads: should the policies of the past 40 years remain in effect with vigor? Or should the U.S. pursue a new approach to Cuba in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro Cuba?

U.S. resources and expertise are key to revive the oil sector
Farnsworth 13 - vice president of the Council of the Americas and Americas Society (4/11/2013, Eric, “ENERGY SECURITY OPPORTUNITIES IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN, HEARING BEFORE THE HOUSE COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS SUBCOMMITTEE ON THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE, http://docs.house.gov/meetings/FA/FA07/20130411/100622/HHRG-113-FA07-Wstate-FarnsworthE-20130411.pdf, JMP) More broadly, the //U//nited //S//tates has a strategic interestin working with willing nations in the hemisphere to develop their own energy resources effectively mitigation, and they//need our technical assistance//to improve the investment climate and the rule of law.

The U.S. is losing its influence in Latin America

 * Council on Foreign Relations 08 ** – independent task force project, CFR is an independent, nonpartisan organization (‘US Latin America Relations: A New Direction for a New Reality’, May 2008, http://www.cfr.org/mexico/us-latin-america-relations/p16279)//MJ

For over 150 years, **__the Monroe Doctrine provided the guiding princi- ples for U.S. policy toward Latin America, asserting U.S. primacy in the foreign affairs of the region.__**
 * __By truly begin- ning to engage Latin America on its own terms, Washington can mark the start of a new era in U.S.-Latin America relations.__**

Large-scale rapprochement not likely now but oil investment could catalyze stronger relations
Metzker 13 (6/17/2013, Jared, “Analysts Say //Oil Could Help Mend U.S.-Venezuela Relations//,” http://www.ipsnews.net/2013/06/analysts-say-oil-could-help-mend-u-s-venezuela-relations/, JMP) WASHINGTON, Jun 17 2013 (IPS) - A shift in U.S. foreign policy towards Venezuela may be pending as a bilateral rapprochement suddenly appears more possible than it has in years “I don’t think Washington is going to push hard to send an ambassador to Caracas,” he said. “It will probably take more time to observe the new government and see where it is going.”

This is critical to boost U.S. influence and mold the regional economic framework
Goldwyn 13 --- President, Goldwyn Global Strategies, LLC (4/11/2013, David L., “The Impact of the Tight Oil and Gas Boom on Latin America and the Caribbean: Opportunities for Cooperation,” House Committee on Foreign Affairs; Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere; “Energy Opportunities in Latin America and the Caribbean” http://docs.house.gov/meetings/FA/FA07/20130411/100622/HHRG-113-FA07-Wstate-GoldwynD-20130411.pdf, JMP) III. The Impact of Hemispheric Energy Trends on U.S. Foreign Policy ¶ The tight oil boom will produce competitive pressure on the region’s oil and gas producers. it will require new approaches to energy and foreign policy. It will require fresh policy approaches, money, and creative diplomacy. But more than anything it //will require leadership//. As a citizen I thank the committee for its leadership on this critical issue.

This will boost U.S. standing in important Latin American regional forums
Delahunt 12 --- chairman of the Venezuela-US Friendship Group and retired U.S. Representative (10/30/2012, William, “A new role for the US and Venezuela,” http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2012/10/30/podium-venezuela/EJ6Jd2yRKfaJ76HYrXb4WJ/story.html, JMP) The recent election in Venezuela offers an opportunity to improve the US-Venezuela bilateral relationship. . I am convinced that the Venezuelan government is prepared to //respond favorably to such an initiative//.

That prevents a global war
Rochlin 94 [James Francis, Professor of Political Science at Okanagan U. College, //Discovering the Americas: The Evolution of Canadian Foreign Policy Towards Latin America//, 130-131, Wake Early Bird File] While there were economic motivations for Canadian policy in Central America, security considerations were perhaps more important. Canada possessed an interest in promoting stability in the face of a potential decline of U.S. hegemony in the Americas. Perceptions of declining U.S. influence  in the region – which had some credibility in 1979-1984 due to the wildly inequitable divisions of wealth in some U.S. client states in Latin America, in addition to political repression, under-development, mounting external debt, anti-American sentiment produced by decades of subjugation to U.S. strategic and economic interests, and so on were linked to the prospect of explosive events occurring that such a predicament could generate increased //global instability// and  perhaps even a //hegemonic war//. This is one of the motivations which led Canada to become involved in efforts at regional conflict resolution, such as Contadora, as will be discussed in the next chapter.

And, relations are key to solve proliferation and climate change - only engagement solves
Zedillo et al 08 --- Commission Co-Chair for the Brookings Institute Report on the Partnership for the Americas and former President of Mexico [Ernesto Zedillo, Thomas R. Pickering, etc, Rethinking U.S.–Latin American Relations A Hemispheric Partnership for a Turbulent World. Report of the Partnership for the Americas Commission, The Brookings Institution, November 2008, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Research/Files/Reports/2008/11/24%20latin%20america%20partnership/1124_latin_america_partnership.PDF, ENDI File] The Need for a Hemispheric Partnership Historically, the United States and Latin America have rarely developed a genuine and sustained partnership to address regional—let alone global—challenges. Washington must decide whether it wants to actively reengage and benefit from the region’s dynamism and resources or be sidelined as other economic and political actors fill the void left by its absence.

Garner 10 (Calvin, ‘Venezuela’s Nuclear Program – The Alarmists are Right’, December 13, 2010, http://www.iar-gwu.org/node/240)
Mixed signals from **__a nuclear Venezuela would have troubling implications for keeping Latin America free of nuclear weapons.__**
 * __ would __****__ almost certainly spread, ending the international success story of Latin America as a nuclear-weapons free zone. __**

Climate change causes extinction
Mazo 10 – PhD in Paleoclimatology from UCLA Jeffrey Mazo, Managing Editor, Survival and Research Fellow for Environmental Security and Science Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, 3-2010, “Climate Conflict: How global warming threatens security and what to do about it,” pg. 122 The best estimates for global warming to the end of the century range from 2.5-4.~C above pre-industrial levels, depending on the scenario. Even in the best-case scenario, the low end of the likely range is 1.goC, and in the worst 'business as usual' projections, which actual emissions have been matching, the range of likely warming runs from 3.1--7.1°C. Even keeping emissions at constant 2000 levels (which have already been exceeded), global temperature would still be expected to reach 1.2°C (O'9""1.5°C)above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century." Without early and severe reductions in emissions, the effects of climate change in the second half of the twenty-first century are likely to be catastrophic even in the best case adaptation to these extremes would mean profound social, cultural and political changes.

US and Brazil competition is not zero-sum
Sweig, 10 – Nelson and David Rockefeller Senior Fellow and Director for Latin America Studies and the Global Brazil Initiative at the Council on Foreign Relations (Julia E., “A New Global Player: Brazil's Far-Flung Agenda,” Foreign Affairs, Nov/Dec 2010, [])//HAL Proximity and interests have likewise compelled the new Brazil to learn to live with this changed political environment. It is unlikely that either Brazil or the United States will succeed in dominating diplomacy in Latin America. //Washington regards Brazil's rise not// as //a zero-sum game that threatens U.S. interests// but ratherastheemergence of a not-quite-natural, albeit sometimes necessary, global partner.