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Plan: The United States federal government should withdraw its tactical nuclear presence from Turkey.

DESCRIPTIONS OF CONTENTIONS 1) Iran: Iran is nuclearizing now, But removing our tnws from turkey increases their influence over Iran and allows them to convince Iran to give up their nuclear program which leads to the impacts in contention 1.

2) Russia: Our Tnw presence is used as a justification by Russia to keep/build up their own weapons systems. That leads to prolif and global nuk war. Removing our Tnw's puts pressure on Russia to reciprocate.

3)Greece: TNW's in Turkey hurt Greece-Turkey relations. Greece tries to keep up w/ Turkey's military, this tanks the economy --> mead.

4) Nabucco: Removing our Tnws from Turkey increases Turkey-Iran relations which is key to cooperation over the Nabucco pipeline. That allows energy to travel to Europe from sources besides Russia, which is key to preventing Euro-Russian war and great power draw in.


 * Note we may switch between some advantages (ie we may read the cmr scenario, or oil scenarios in the 1ac), but most of the cards are posted, I will try to post more.

//__**Contention 1: The Status Quo**__//

The US has been withdrawing TNW’s for 20 years
Bell and Loehrke 09  (Alexandra, Truman National Security Fellow, Benjamin, Grad student in Public Policy, “The Status of US nuclear weapons in Turkey”)

However; Turkey currently hosts 90 U.S B-61 gravity bombs at the Incirlik Air Base – and they're outdated

 * Bell and Loehrke 09 ** (Alexandra is a Truman National Security Fellow and Benjamin is a grad student at the U of Maryland, “The status of U.S. nuclear weapons in Turkey”, accessed at __http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/the-status-of-us-nuclear-weapons-turkey __on 6/21/10//dml)//

__**Contention 2: Iran**__
 * Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons now**
 * GREEN 6/14** [J.J. Green, the national security correspondent, and Middle East proliferation expert for WTOP, CSPAN, and Voice of America, on WTOP “Iran ‘Definitely’ Building Nuclear Weapon”. 6/14/2010, [] ] Saker

// **Turkish credibility is key to reducing Iran’s arsenal – they’re the single most influential actor ** //

//**Ben-Meir, 09 ** (Alon Ben-Meir, Senior Fellow at the Center for Global Affairs in New York University and teaches courses on the Middle East and international negotiations, Spring 2009, The Whitehead Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations, Nuclear Iran is Not an Option: A New Negotiating Strategy to Prevent Iran from Developing Nuclear Weapons) //

// **However, Turkey can’t convince Iran to stop their nuclear program unless the U.S removes their TNWs ** //

// Kibaroglu 6/7/10  (Mustafa, Professor and Vice Chair of the IR dept @ Bilkent U, “Reassessing the Role of U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Turkey”, Arms Control Today pg 12, June 2010 //dml)


 * This causes cascading proliferation**
 * Rubin 9 ** – senior editor of the Middle East Quarterly, is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and a senior lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School (Michael, October 5, “Bad Options on Iran: An Israeli strike won't suffice”, http://www.meforum.org/2476/bad-options-on-iran )


 * This results in nuclear war**
 * __<span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">Inbar 6 __** (Efraim, Professor of Political Studies at Bar-Ilan University and Director of its Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies “The Need to Block a Nuclear Iran” Article was Peer Reviewed by David Leitner and Tamara Sternlieb, The Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol 10 No 1 Article 7 March 2006) [], AD: 7-31-09)


 * <span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif';">The impact is ARMAGEDDON – Iranian proliferation leads to every major impact **
 * <span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif';">Wimbush and Ford, 10 **<span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 7pt;">(S. Enders Wimbush, Senior Vice President for International Programs and Policy at Hudson Institute, and Christopher A. Ford, senior fellow and director of the Center for Technology and Global Security at Hudson Institute, 1-14-10, Hudson Institute, Perspectives Upon a Nuclear Iran)

//__**Contention 3: Russia**__//


 * <span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif';">Russia isn’t reducing its arsenal now – but withdrawal of our TNWs puts pressure on them to reciprocate. **
 * <span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif';"> Potter 09 **<span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-weight: normal;">[Miles Pomper, MA, editor of Arms Control Today @ ACA, Nikolai Sokov, Ph.D., is senior research associate at James Martin Center for Non-proliferation Studies at Monterey Institute of International Studies, William Potter, Ph.D., is Institute Professor and Director of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies (MIIS) “Breaking the U.S.-Russian deadlock on nonstrategic nuclear weapons,” http://thebulletin.org/web-edition/op-eds/breaking-the-us-russian-deadlock-nonstrategic-nuclear-weapons]

**<span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif';">Absent plan, uncertainty over stockpiles leads to US-Russian war **

<span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif';">Pomper, Potter and Sokov, 2009
<span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt;">[Miles A, William, and Nikolai, The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, “Reducing and Regulating Tactical (Nonstrategic) Nuclear Weapons in Europe,” December]

**<span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif';">And, absent withdrawal, TNWs proliferate – China, India, and Pakistan all get them **

==<span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif';">Pomper, Potter and Sokov, 2009 <span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-weight: normal;">[Miles A, William, and Nikolai, The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, “Reducing and Regulating Tactical (Nonstrategic) Nuclear Weapons in Europe,” December] ==

==<span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif';">Leads to nuclear war and Indo-Pak war. Krepon, 2004 <span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-weight: normal;">[Michael Krepon, MA, is Co-founder of the Henry L. Stimson Center, Ziad Haider, Charles Thornton, “Are Tactical Nuclear Weapons Needed in South Asia?” []] ==

<span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 12pt;">Caldicott 02 <span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif';">, Founder of Physicians for Social Responsibility [Helen, The New Nuclear Danger: George W. Bush’s Military-Industrial Complex, p. X]
 * <span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif';">India-Pakistan nuclear war will escalate globally and destroy the planet **

==<span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif';">Plan is key – Russia is only going to open up to TNW reduction if we reciprocate Higgins, 2005 <span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 8pt; font-weight: normal;">[Davida, CND and Lakenheath Action Group, “US tactical nuclear weapons in Europe,” http://www.cnduk.org/pages/binfo/nato2005.pdf] ==

=<span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 8pt; font-weight: normal;">//__**Contention 4: Greece**__// = **TNW presence undermines Turkey/Greece relations by increasing tensions over nuclear sharing** Claudine **<span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">Lamond and ** Paul **<span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">Ingram ‘9 ** [*recently graduated from the Australian National University holding a Bachelor of Arts in International Relations, and a Bachelor of Asian Studies, Security and Strategic Studies, and **Executive Director of British American Security Information Council, Getting to Zero Papers, No. 11 Politics around US tactical nuclear weapons in European host states 23 January 2009, [])

**<span style="font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">Greece is cutting defense spending now - but it won’t be enough to save the economy because of military tensions with Turkey **
 * <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">Benitez 5/3 ** <span style="font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 8pt;">(Dr. Jorge, Assistant for Alliance Issues to the Director of NATO Affairs in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, specialist in international security for the Department of State and the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, Ph.D. from Tufts School of Law and Diplomacy, NATOsource – the Alliance News blog, “Greece to Cut Defense Expenses, but Keep Balance with Turkey,” May 3 2010

**<span style="font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">Military spending is the biggest internal link – solving Greek/Turkey relations is key ** **<span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">Donahue and Holland 5/14 **<span style="font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 8pt;"> (Patrick and Ben, the Daily News and Economic Review in the Hurriyet Daily News – Turkey's English newspaper, “Turkey may help Greece trip budget deficit,” May 14 2010 [] LM)

//__** <span style="color: black; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 8pt;">Contention 5: Nabucco **__//

**<span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">Channel 4 News 4/30 ** /10 [The news station you can trust, on channel 4, Global economy fears as Greece faces bailout, http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/business_money/global+economy+fears+as+greece+ponders+bailout/3633002]
 * Failure to reign Greek defense spending will collapse the Greek economy taking the global economy with it**


 * Impact- Economic collapse results in global war and extinction.**
 * <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">Mead **, 2-04- **<span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">09 ** (Walter Russell, finally a new econ impact card, Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow in US foreign policy, council on foreign relations, “Only makes you stronger: Why the recession bolstered America” < []>)
 * <span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">Mead **, 2-04- **<span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">09 ** (Walter Russell, finally a new econ impact card, Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow in US foreign policy, council on foreign relations, “Only makes you stronger: Why the recession bolstered America” < []>)


 * <span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif';">Perceptual independence from America allows Turkey to be a regional mediator and restores Turkish-Iranian relations **

<span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 12pt;">Silk **<span style="font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">, **<span style="font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 7pt;"> Professor of Economics at Pace University and Senior Research Fellow,  19<span style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">93   <span style="font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 7pt;"> (Leonard, Professor of Economics at Pace University and Senior Research Fellow at the Ralph Bunche Institute on the United Nations at the Graduate Center, City University of New York. "Dangers of slow growth," Foreign Affairs, Wntr v72 n1 p167(16).)
 * Economic decline makes all your impacts inevitable**

//__**Contention 5: Nabucco**__//
 * <span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 12pt;">Turkish-Iran relations key to the success of Nabucco pipeline - prevents European oil dependence on Russia **
 * <span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 12pt;">Trend Capital 11 - 4 **<span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 8pt;"> –(Trend Capital is a major Azerbaijani news servicer (Turkey may help Iran join Nabucco, http://en.trend.az/capital/ pengineering/1572257.html)


 * <span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 12pt;">Continued European oil dependence on Russia ensures division of European alliance, thus weakening the West **


 * <span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 12pt;">Kagan 8 <span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif';"> – **<span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 8pt;"> (senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Robert, The Return of History and the End of Dreams, pg 17-8)


 * <span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif';">Makes war inevitable **

<span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 12pt;">Cohen 7 <span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif';"> – (Senior Research Fellow, The Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies <span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif';"> (Ariel, Europe's Strategic Dependence on Russian Energy, November 5th, <span style="color: blue; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif';">http://www.heritage.org/ Research/Europe/bg2083.cfm <span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif';">)

<span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 8pt;"> (Robert, The Return of History and the End of Dreams, pg 19)
 * <span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 12pt;">And, it's try or die - war is on the brink **
 * <span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 12pt;">Kagan 8 <span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif';"> - **<span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 8pt;"> senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

<span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 8pt;"> (Robert, The Return of History and the End of Dreams, pg 23-4)
 * <span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 12pt;">European-Russian war will draw in Ukraine, Georgia and other Eastern European countries **
 * <span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 12pt;">Kagan 8 <span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif';"> - **<span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 8pt;"> senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace


 * <span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 12pt;">Extinction **
 * <span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 12pt;">Mearsheimer 93 **<span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 8pt;">, (Professor of Political Science, University of Chicago (John, "The Case for a Ukrainian Nuclear Deterrent" Foreign Affairs, Summer, 1993)