Christina+&+Colin

=**AFF**=

The shale boom is unsustainable—US reserves and productivity are decreasing rapidly
The speed and scope of the shale-led energy renaissance in the US has AND 345 billon barrels, equivalent to 10 percent of estimated global oil resources.
 * Gopinath 9-3-13**—New Delhi economist writing for Yale Global Online (Deepak, "Shale Energy No Quick Solution," Yale Global Online, http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/shale-energy-no-quick-solution)BC

Natural gas prices will keep increasing despite flat consumption—that impacts sectors throughout the economy
The average price of natural gas is expected to increase by almost a dollar in AND said suggests greater rig efficiency in extracting more gas from a single location.
 * Schwartzel, 13** [Erich Schwartzel, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Expert on Fracking, visited Pappas' Public Policy Class and was part of a round table discussion that consisted of Barry Rabe, professor at UM and others, really funny too, "U.S. report predicts rising natural gas prices in 2013-14", http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/business/news/us-report-predicts-rising-natural-gas-prices-in-2013-14-669602/]

The impact is price spikes
In an interview with POWER, Berman argued that the boom in drilling shale gas AND be gas-coal switching if prices do go much higher than now."
 * Maize, 12/1/12** ["Is Shale Gas Shallow or the Real Deal?", Kennedy, Veteran Journalist Kennedy Maize has spent the past 40 years working as a journalist, analyst, and manager in the private sector and federal government, with over 35 years of that focused on energy and environmental topics. Over that time, he has seen myriad examples of how group think, policy fads, and bad judgment can result in colossal failures, particularly in the field of atomic energy. Maize has seen, up close and personal, the demise of the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, the arrival of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the birth of the U.S. Department of Energy, the failures of nuclear flight, the hubris of atomic earthmoving, the boom and bust uranium market, the birth and death of breeder reactors, and the 60-year wandering in the wilderness of nuclear waste policy. After graduating from Penn State and graduate study at the University of Maryland, Kennedy Maize worked for newspapers in Pennsylvania, New York, and Virginia and the Associated Press in Baltimore. He then spent five years in management at the National Institute of Health and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission before taking a job covering energy, environment, and business topics for Editorial Research Reports, a division of Congressional Quarterly, where his work appeared in over 1,000 daily newspapers in the U.S. during the mid-to-late 1970s. Maize became a staff writer and editor at The Energy Daily, a preeminent energy trade paper, on March 28, 1979, the day the Three Mile Island accident began outside Harrisburg, Pa. Over more than 10 years at The Energy Daily, he covered the nuclear and coal industries, including stories involving the Clinch River Breeder Reactor, the U.S. Synthetic Fuels Corp., the Powder River Basin coal leasing scandal, and the Chernobyl explosion. In 1993, he founded The Electricity Daily, where he was the editor for 14 years, writing about changes in the electricity business, the rise and fall of Enron, the stagnation of the nuclear power business, and the arrival of market forces in the utility field. Since 2006, he has been an editor at POWER magazine, and the founder of MANAGING POWER magazine, where he has written about the Fukushima catastrophe, the emergence of shale gas and decline of coal, and the often ill-advised push for renewable electricity technologies http://www.powermag.com/gas/Is-Shale-Gas-Shallow-or-the-Real-Deal_5188.html]

Robust domestic production is key to manufacturing growth—that's the basis for economic recovery
Duesterberg, 12 [Tom is Executive Director of the Manufacturing and Society in the 21st Century program at the Aspen Institute. He recently retired as President and CEO of The Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, an economic research and executive education organization based in Arlington, Virginia with more than 500 manufacturing firms as members. Previous positions include: Director of the Washington Office of The Hudson Institute, Assistant Secretary for International Economic Policy at the U.S. Department of Commerce, chief of staff to two members of Congress, and associate instructor at Stanford University. His commentary and analysis on manufacturing, economic performance, globalization, and related policy issues can be found in major news outlets. He holds a B.A. degree from Princeton and M. A. and Ph.D. degrees from Indiana University, "Impact of the Energy Boom on US Manufacturing", http://www.aspeninstitute.org/about/blog/impact-energy-boom-us-manufacturing] The manufacturing sector has been leading the US economic recovery since the end of the AND renewable energy—manufacturing uses 90 percent more renewables than the transportation sector.

Maintaining low prices through adequate supply is key to lock in a massive economic benefit—that galvanizes key industries
Expanded supply, coupled with low natural gas prices, has the potential to contribute AND , would need to be changed to a more market-oriented method.
 * Pirog and Ratner 12**- *Energy specialist in the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies International Economics Program, **specialist in energy policy for the Congressional Research Service (Robert and Michael, "Natural Gas in the U.S. Economy: Opportunities for Growth" Congressional News Service, http://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42814.pdf)//WK

Natural gas production directly correlates with growth and innovation—unique spillover effects
Carey, 12/13/12 [Julie M, Julie M. Carey is an energy economist with Navigant Economics who provides consulting and testifying services Navigant's unconventional oil and gas offerings include advisory services for strategic business decision analysis, construction risk management, economic and antitrust analyses, investment banking and restructuring advisory services, and expert services for disputes and investigations, "How Unconventional Oil And Gas Is Supercharging The U.S. Economy", http://www.forbes.com/sites/energysource/2012/12/13/how-unconventional-oil-and-gas-is-transforming-the-u-s-economy/] It's an exciting time to be in the energy industry in America. The impact AND infrastructure build out and related opportunities (including both direct and indirect jobs).

Domestic manufacturing is key to overall resilience
Manufacturing is critically important to the American economy. For **generations**, the strength of AND vulnerable to everything from exchange rate fluctuations to trade embargoes to natural disasters.
 * Ettlinger, 11** [Michael, Vice President for Economic Policy at the Center for American Progress Prior to joining the Center, he spent six years at the Economic Policy Institute directing the Economic Analysis and Research Network. Previously, he was tax policy director for Citizens for Tax Justice and the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy for 11 years. He has also served on the staff of the New York State Assembly. "The Importance and Promise of American Manufacturing Why It Matters if We Make It in America and Where We Stand Today", http://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/issues/2011/04/pdf/manufacturing.pdf]

Economic collapse causes competition for resources and instability that escalates and goes nuclear
Harris and Burrows, 9 – *counselor in the National Intelligence Council, the principal drafter of Global Trends 2025, **member of the NIC's Long Range Analysis Unit "Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis", Washington Quarterly, http://www.twq.com/09april/docs/09apr_burrows.pdf) Increased Potential for Global Conflict Of course, the report encompasses more than economics AND within and between states in a more dog-eat-dog world.

Our impact has a strong statistical basis – rally around the flag
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict AND not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention.
 * Royal 10** – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, "Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises," in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-214

Low natural gas prices key to domestic steel manufacturing
America's steel industry, for decades a symbol of industrial decline, is betting on AND American industrial power, a competitive edge in the 21st Century.
 * James 12**- Correspondent for Reuters (Steve, "Analysis: Steelmakers eye gas to cut costs, drive exports", Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/16/us-steel-gas-idUSBRE82F12Y20120316)//WK

Low steel prices are the vital internal link to primacy
This analysis presented by the U.S. steel industry addresses the importance of AND problems; • Inventory problems, long lead times and extended construction schedules.
 * AISI et al. 7**- (*American Iron and Steel Institute, **Specialty Steel Industry of North America, ***Steel Manufacturers Association, ****Steel Manufacturer's Association, *****United Steel Workers, "Steel and the National Defense", http://www.ssina.com/news/releases/pdf_releases/steel_and_national_defense_0107.pdf)//WK

Hegemony solves conflict escalation and great power war
Brooks, et al, 13 [Don't Come Home, America: The Case against Retrenchment Stephen G. Brooks (bio), G. John Ikenberry (bio) and William C. Wohlforth (bio), Stephen G. Brooks; G. John Ikenberry and William C. Wohlforth STEPHEN G. BROOKS is Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College. G. JOHN IKENBERRY is Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University and Global Eminence Scholar at Kyung Hee University in Seoul. WILLIAM C. WOHLFORTH is Daniel Webster Professor of Government at Dartmouth College, International Security Volume 37, Number 3, Winter 2012, p. Project Muse] Assessing the Security Benefits of Deep Engagement Even if deep engagement's costs are far AND disengaged—even as it pushes cooperation toward U.S. preferences.

And, natural gas acts as a bridge fuel—spurring broad renewable development
Natural gas is a good transition step on the road to greener energy sources like AND fuels is equally beneficial in percentage terms no matter how fast the transition."
 * Ju 12 – **Anne Ju (senior science writer for the Cornell Chronicle) July 17, 2012 "Study Proves Natural Gas Can Bridge the Gap to a Clean Energy Economy" http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Study-Proves-Natural-Gas-Can-Bridge-the-Gap-to-a-Clean-Energy-Economy.html

CO2 emissions will run away in the status quo—natural gas is the only effective alternative to coal—U.S. development is modeled globally and prevents extinction
The battle against runaway climate change is being lost.** The green movement and the ** adaptation to these extremes would mean profound social, cultural and political changes.
 * Riley 8/13—BA, LL.M., PhD, professor of energy law at The City Law School at City University London (Alan, 8/13/12, "Shale Gas to the Climate Rescue," http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/14/opinion/shale-gas-to-the-climate-rescue.html, RBatra)**
 * AND**

The plan solves warming – most recent and comprehensive study
Levi, 1/3/13 [Climate consequences of natural gas as a bridge fuel Michael Levi, David M. Rubenstein Senior Fellow for Energy and the Environment and Director of the Program on Energy Security and Climate Change, Climate Consequences of Natural Gas As a Bridge Fuel, http://www.cfr.org/energyenvironment/climate-consequences-natural-gas-bridge-fuel/p29772] 5 Conclusions and discussion Beginning with well known stabilization scenarios that feature direct transitions from AND does it mean that other plausible scenarios might not have superior climate outcomes.

OCS expansion key to solve warming – the impact is extinction
Lamborn, 08 [Path of wisdom: Open up Outer Continental Shelf to gas drilling, House Representative Doug Republican Colorado, http://thehill.com/opinion/op-ed/7688-path-of-wisdom-open-up-outer-continental-shelf-to-gas-drilling] Many years ago that great philosopher Woody Allen wrote, "More than any other AND I see a bad moon rising / I see trouble on the way."

Extinction—GHG emissions are the proximate cause
Advocacy about the health consequences will ensure that climate change is a high priority. AND as dissipation of metabolic heat becomes impossible, therefore making many environments uninhabitable.
 * Costello 11 –**, Anthony, Institute for Global Health, University College London, Mark Maslin, Department of Geography, University College London, Hugh Montgomery, Institute for Human Health and Performance, University College London, Anne M. Johnson, Institute for Global Health, University College London, Paul Ekins, Energy Institute, University College London ["Global health and climate change: moving from denial and catastrophic fatalism to positive action" May 2011 vol. 369 no. 1942 1866-1882 Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society]

OCS restrictions must be lifted but federal action is key – Congress has to fund DOI leasing projects
Washington must do something about the increasing price of gasoline, now topping $4 AND them back. Thus far, none of these efforts has been successful.
 * Lieberman 08** – senior policy analyst for Energy and Environment for the Heritage Foundation (Ben, "Listing the Offshore Drilling Ban: A Positive Step in the Fight against High Energy Prices", The Heritage Foundation, 7/14/2008, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2008/07/lifting-the-offshore-drilling-ban-a-positive-step-in-the-fight-against-high-energy-prices)//BD

85% of gas is off limits now
Luthi, 11/9/12 [Luthi is the president of the National Ocean Industry Association, representing more than 275 companies engaged in all aspects of the exploration and production of both traditional and renewable energy resources on the nation's outer continental shelf, "Let's find agreement on new offshore access", http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/energy-a-environment/267089-lets-find-agreement-on-new-offshore-access] Now that the election is (finally) behind us, President Obama has an AND is waiting for us there, because we're not allowed to go look.

And, the plan creates certainty for offshore production—balances supply
Mr. GRILES. America's public lands have an abundant opportunity for exploration and development AND from and buy, so they can have certainty about where to go.
 * Griles 3** [Lisa, Deputy Secretary, Department of the Interior, "Energy Production on Federal Lands," Hearing before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, United States Senate]

And, that sustains low prices and ensures adequate supply
Hastings, 12 [House Representative Doc, Republican Washington, President Obama's offshore drilling plan must be replaced, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/energy-a-environment/239529-president-obamas-offshore-drilling-plan-must-be-replaced] Though President Obama uses lofty rhetoric to claim support for American oil and natural gas AND or support using American energy to create American jobs and strengthen America's economy.

Nearly 100 new projects are capable of development
Paul **Hillegeist et al** (President and COO at Quest Offshore Resources, Inc, Sean Shafer, Project Director, Andrew Jackson, Project Manager, Leslie Cook, Senior Research Consultant) December **2011** "The State of the Offshore U.S. Oil and Gas Industry" http://energytomorrow.org/images/uploads/Quest_2011_December_29_Final.pdf If drilling permits going forward were to be issued at pre‐moratorium rates, AND to the nation in terms of energy security, employment and government revenue.

Otherwise, restrictions crush predictability and timing of projects
One legacy of congressional moratoria is their impact on the timing of possible OCS development AND restrictions were defensible in the absence of more permanent alternatives for similar leasing prohibitions =NEG=
 * Hagerty 10 **Curry L. (Specialist in Energy and Natural Resources Policy at the Congressional Research Service) June 15, 2010 "Outer Continental Shelf Moratoria on Oil and Gas Development" http://crs.ncseonline.org/nle/crsreports/10Jul/R41132.pdf

**1NC vs. AUV's**
T - Its Exports/Imports Bank DA China CP Security K Case - Tech theft Security
 * 2NR vs. AUV's**