Mimi+and+Shreya

=1AC= Advantages are regionalism, succession, and Korean conflict. =Plan=
 * The United States federal government should implement a phased withdrawal of nearly all its forces in the Republic of Korea.**

=Regionalism Adv – 1ac=


 * Advantage 2 is Regionalism**


 * U.S. alliance relationships are unsustainable – Asian powers should develop a regional security strategy that __does not__ rely on the U.S. – solves a litany of impacts**


 * Francis, 6 ** – former Australian Ambassador to Croatia and fellow at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University from 05-06 (Fall 2006, Neil, Harvard International Review, “For an East Asian Union: Rethinking Asia's Cold War Alliances,” [], JMP)

At the conclusion of the Second World War,..o provide the leadership necessary to create a strong, independent East Asian Union.

** Regionalism is currently halfhearted – only a __clear sign__ of U.S. withdrawal can motivate regionalism ** ** Carpenter and Bandow 4 **** – * ** Vice President of Defense and Foreign Studies at the Cato Institute, AND **Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute** ( ** Ted Galen Carpenter, 12/2004, The Korean Conundrum: America’s Troubled Relations With North and South Korea, pg 160-161)DR **


 * The security treaties with the **... the central and west-central Pacific.

Withdrawal will reduce Korea’s veto of multilateral security mechanisms – key to regionalism Lee, 9 ** – Seoul National University (December 2009, Geun, “The Nexus between Korea’s Regional Security Options and Domestic Politics,” [|www.cfr.org], JMP) **


 * The idea of multilateral security __...__ __loose form of the U.S.-Korea alliance.__**

Accelerating U.S. withdrawal is key to catalyze a multipolar region and pave the way for off-shore balancing Espiritu, 6 ** – Commander, U.S. Navy (3/15/06, Commander Emilson M. Espiritu, “The Eagle Heads Home: Rethinking National Security Policy for The Asia-Pacific Region,” [], JMP) **


 * Can the U.S. live with the ... the Eagle to head home. **

Strengthening the East Asian regional security architecture key to solve terrorism, China conflicts, and environmental degradation Nanto, 8 ** – Specialist in Industry and Trade Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division for Congressional Research Services (1/4, “East Asian Regional Architecture: New Economic and Security Arrangements and U.S. Policy,” www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33653.pdf) **


 * __ A stronger __**__regional security__ **... exist or will exist in the future. **

Terrorism leads to extinction Sid-Ahmed, 4** (Mohamed, Managing Editor for Al-Ahali, “Extinction!” August 26-September 1, Issue no. 705, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm) **


 * __ A nuclear attack by terrorists __ __will ..., we will all be losers .__**


 * Environmental disasters lead to extinction**
 * Watson 6 (Captain Paul, Founder and President of Sea Shepherd Conservation Society, Former Field Correspondent for Defenders of Wildlife, Sierra Club Member, Greenpeace Member, Last Mod 9-17, http://www.eco-action.org/dt/beerswil.html)**


 * The facts are clear. More plant...  and mind numbing specter of massive human destruction. **

Territorial disputes draw in great powers --- causes World War 3 Waldron, 97** – professor of strategy and policy at the U.S. Naval War College and an associate of the Fairbank Center for East Asian Research at Harvard (March 1997, Arthur, Commentary, “How Not to Deal with China,” EBSCO) **


 * __ MAKING __ __THESE flash-points..., or Japan--or the __ __ U __ nited __ S __ tates. **

A Multilateral Security Alliance would maintain US military flexibility and credibility abroad Kinne 04**- Colonel and US Army Researcher**
 * (5/3/04, “U.S. Strategy Towards North Korea” pg online @ [http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-**
 * bin/GetTRDoc?Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf&AD=ADA423691]//au)**


 * Adoption of the three-pronged... our own vital interests worldwide. **

=Succession=
 * Advantage 2 is Succession**


 * A massive power struggle is underway in North Korea – warring factions will facilitate several avenues for conflict**
 * Bandow, 6/9** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (6/9/10, Doug, The Daily Caller, “Confronting North Korea: Who’s in charge?”[], JMP)

We see through a ...r more than Washington’s problem.

[], JMP)
 * Succession politics makes provocations __more likely and dangerous__ and crushes the chance of effective engagement to rollback North Korea’s nuclear program**
 * Bandow, 09** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (7/29/09, Doug, “Kim’s Heir,”

President George W. Bush f...n more unsettled and dangerous future.

**Kim Jong Un needs to score some political victories to ensure a stable succession process – right now he is using military provocations to try and win support of the military** **Lee, 10** (5/27/10, Jean H., writer for the Associated Press, The Associated Press, “Analysis: Attack May Be Tied to NKorean Succession”, http://www.lexisnexis.com)

Young, inexperienced and ... North Korea should be the least of our worries.


 * The plan solves by motivating China and South Korea to effectively influence the leadership transition**
 * Bandow, 08** – Fellow at the American Conservative Defense Alliance and former special assistant to Reagan (9/15/08, Doug, “Dear Leader Goes South,” [], JMP)

Two men have ruled the northern **__...__**__ **, most importantly South Korea and China.** __


 * Chinese involvement is key to stabilize Korea – prevents violent collapse, military response by South Korea, North Korea nuclearization and allied proliferation**
 * Bandow, 10** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (5/3/10, Doug, “Taming Pyongyang,” [], JMP)

Second, the United States, South Korea ... involving China in the North Korean issue.

=Korean War= The sinking of the South Korea’s ship makes conflict inevitable – retaliation will spark an escalatory war and failure to respond will only cause more North Korean provocations.
 * Bandow, 10 – senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to Reagan (4/18/10, Doug, “Let the Koreans Take Care of the Koreas,” [], JMP)**

__It has been weeks ...__** ill-prepared to defend its own personnel. **

Even if a conflict won’t start __intentionally__, current high tensions risk __accidents__ that __escalate__ to global nuclear war STRATFOR, 10 ** (5/26/10, “North Korea, South Korea: The Military Balance on the Peninsula,” [], JMP) **


 * Managing Escalation **
 * But __ no one, of course... situation escalates much further.__**

The status quo is fundamentally different – nuclear use is now likely and deterrence won’t solve Chung, 10** – Visiting Professor at the School of International Relations, Nanyang Technological University and former Professor of international relations at Seoul National University (6/1/10, Chung Chong Wook, “The Korean Crisis: Going Beyond the Cheonan Incident,” http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/Perspective/RSIS0352010.pdf) **


 * The sinking of the Cheonan, f __..__ __often defy the strategic calculus__**

U.S. presence makes provocations inevitable and guarantees our draw in Bandow, 10** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (5/3/10, Doug, “Taming Pyongyang,” [], JMP) **


 * Suspicions continue to moun.. must continue doing so in 2010 is bizarre. **

The U.S. response to bolster deterrence will just increase provocations and make miscalculation more likely Armstrong, 10 – ** Professor of history and director of the Center for Korean Research at Columbia University.. (Charles, 5/26/10, CNN, “The Korean War never ended” []) **


 * On the other hand, there ... Korean War, not start it anew. **

North Korea might decide that it has nothing to lose in the status quo – making more miscalculations likely Righter, 10** – Worked for the Far Eastern Economic Review and Newsweek in Asia, as development and diplomatic correspondent of The Sunday Times. (Rosemary, 5/25/10, Times Online, “It’s risky, but this time North Korea must pay” []) **


 * It is the lack of ... quite reached this danger point. **


 * North Korean aggression and nuclearization will cause escalatory nuclear conflict which destroys the environment and economy, causing extinction**
 * Hayes & Hamel-Green, 10 – *Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development, AND** Executive Dean of the Faculty of Arts, Education and Human Development act Victoria University (1/5/10, Executive Dean at Victoria, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia,” [])

The international community is.. consideration from the international community.


 * Withdrawing __ground troops__ solves – stops North Korea from probing U.S. weakness to draw our forces into a wider conflict. Air and naval installations will maintain power projection capabilities.**
 * Stanton, 10** – U.S. Army Judge Advocate in Korea from 98-02 and practicing attorney in Washington, D.C. (4/12/10, Joshua, The New Ledger, “It's Time for the U.S. Army to Leave Korea,” [], JMP)

Proceeding against the advice of my ... clock, aligns with the correct result.


 * Withdrawal is necessary to prevent U.S. entanglement in Korean conflicts – there is no need to show resolve when our interests aren’t at stake- turns deterrence because US presence keeps Korea from a hard line policy against the north**
 * Bandow, 10** – senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to Reagan (5/24/10, Doug, “Avoiding Pyongyang,” [], JMP)

After an investigation of nearly ... over to the South Korean people.


 * U.S. presence is useless to deter North Korea – withdrawal will motivate South Korea and China to stabilize and de-nuclearize the peninsula**
 * Erickson, 10** – Executive Director of CenterMovement.org (5/6/10, Stephen, “End the Cold War in Korea: Bring American Troops Home Before it’s Too Late,” [], JMP)

On the night of March 26... be brought home before it’s too late.


 * A phased withdrawal prevents U.S. draw in – regional security efforts can effectively resolve Korea crises**
 * Carpenter, 09** – vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute (Ted Galen, CATO Handbook for Congress, 7th Edition, “54. East Asian Security Commitments,” [], JMP)

South Korea The U.S. alliance with the ... South Korea as a security client.


 * Reinforcing deterrence just makes __miscalculation__ more likely**
 * Armstrong, 10 –** Professor of history and director of the Center for Korean Research at Columbia University (Charles, 5/26/10, CNN, “The Korean War never ended” [])

New York (CNN) -- The Korean War began 60 y... Korean War, not start it anew.