Nate+and+Paul

== =1ac – plan=

The United States federal government should substantially reduce military presence assigned to the counterinsurgency mission in Afghanistan.

=1ac – Hegemony=


 * Advantage I: Hegemony**


 * The war in Afghanistan will collapse American primacy – 2 internal links:**


 * First – credibility. Obama announced a July 2011 withdrawal date, but it is based on the conditional success of the counterinsurgency mission. This deadline is __perceived__ as unconditional withdrawal and has created global confusion**
 * Rogin, 10** - staff writer for Foreign Policy, Prior to that, Josh covered defense and foreign policy for Congressional Quarterly. Josh has also worked at the House International Relations Committee, and the Brookings Institution (Josh, “Petraeus: Withdrawal timeline does not mean "switching off the lights",” The Cable, 6/29, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/06/29/petraeus_withdrawal_timeline_does_not_mean_switching_off_the_lights )

When General David Petraeus ... which is exactly what they've been doing ."

=1ac – Hegemony=


 * The counterinsurgency mission will fail for multiple reasons – there is no chance of meeting the deadline**
 * Nelson, 9** – former director of a Joint Task Force in support of Operation Enduring Freedom, retired naval officer with assignments at the National Counterterrorism Center and National Security Council, and Senior Fellow at the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (Rick, “The Other Side of the COIN”, 10/1, http://csis.org/publication/other-side-coin )


 * Q1: General McChrystal is expected to request **... any “all-in” approach would entail.

=1ac - Hegemony=


 * Cross border sanctuaries, government corruption, ethnic tensions within the Afghan army and the utter failure of population protection makes failure inevitable**
 * Dorronsoro, 10** - visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment, is an expert on Afghanistan, Turkey, and South Asia. Previously, Dorronsoro was a professor of political science at the Sorbonne, Paris and the Institute of Political Studies of Rennes (Gilles, “The Case for Negotiations,” In These Times, 5/24, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=40863

A few tactical successes are possible, ...marginal military gains for the coalition in the next 18 months are the exact equivalent of a strategic defeat. Hence the need for a negotiated settlement. =1ac - Hegemony=


 * Security exists only in 5 of 116 areas in Afghanistan and the Taliban is spreading despite Obama’s surge – the problem is COIN itself**
 * Hallinan, 10** -columnist for foreign policy in focus (7/22/10, Conn, “The Great Myth: Counterinsurgency,” [] )

__the Marjah operation was billed as a “ turning point” in the Afghan War ,__... firing of former Afghan War commander General Stanley McChrystal.

=1ac – Hegemony=


 * Failure will spillover to the entirety of US foreign policy and prevent Obama from exercising leadership. Big footprint equals big terrorism**
 * Fernholz, 10** – writing fellow at the American Prospect and Research Fellow at the New America Foundation (Tim, The American Prospect, “The Ultimate Test Case,” March, 2010, lexis) **Katulis = security policy analyst at the Center for American Progress**

Obama's plan echoed the surge he opposed in Iraq: An escalation to protect civilians in population centers and train Afghan security forces ..., hindering his ability to execute any of his other initiatives. =1ac - Hegemony=


 * The plan restores US credibility – ending the counterinsurgency mission will salvage Obama’s Afghanistan policy and allow a sustainable presence **
 * Stewart, 10 ** - Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at Harvard, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (Rory, “ Afghanistan: What Could Work”, New York Review of Books, 1/14,  http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2010/jan/14/afghanistan-what-could-work/?page=3)

But this moderate tone gains Obama the leverage that Bush lacked. ... Afghanistan but a much greater focus on Kashmir .1

=1ac – Hegemony=


 * Second –overstretch**

Over the winter break I had an epiphany about the interrelation of U.S. hard and soft power: I  now  oppose a counterinsurgency (COIN) strategy  in Afghanistan and advocate a purely counterterror  (CT)  ... or complex challenges from a rising power (China, a reinvigorated Russia  ). =1ac – Hegemony=
 * Counterinsurgency doctrine is overstretching the US military and exhausting American leadership – withdrawing to a counterterrorism strategy is vital to preventing great power challengers **
 * Kretkowski, 10 ** – Frequently assists think tank in conferences and other work products that aid DoD's long-term thinking about threats that may not be addressable via weapons platforms. Spent six months in Afghanistan working with Army public affairs. (Paul, “Against COIN, for CT in Afghanistan and Elsewhere”, 1/7, Beacon (a blog), http://softpowerbeacon.blogspot.com/2010/01/against-coin-for-ct-in-afghanistan-and.html)

** Kuhner, 9 - ** the president of the Edmund Burke Institute for American Renewal (Jeffrey, Washington Times, “Obama’s quagmire; US should look to its own interests,” 9/7, Lexis Academic)
 * Afghanistan is a quagmire of attrition warfare that is destroying US morale and readiness.**

__ America is losing the war in Afghanistan. __ __...____ our huge military and economic footprint drives numerous Afghans into __ the evil, welcoming __ arms of extremists. __ =1ac – Hegemony=


 * This will obliterate American primacy **
 * Pyne, 9 - ** Vice Chair of the Utah State Legislative Compensation Commission and Vice President of the Association of the United States Army's Utah chapter and a Vice President of the Salt Lake Total Force Chapter of the Military Officers Association of America (David, “  Obama failing our troops in Afghanistan,” 11/7, http://westernfrontamerica.com/2009/11/07/obama-failing-troops-afghanistan/)

Since we invaded Iraq six and a half years ago and Afghanistan eight years ago... Even Russia has done so with their invasion of US-ally Georgia this past year.

=1ac – Hegemony=


 * American primacy is vital to accessing every major impact—the only threat to world peace is if we allow it to collapse**
 * Thayer, 6 - ** professor of security studies at Missouri State (Bradley, The National Interest, “In Defense of Primacy”, November/December, p. 32-37)

A grand strategy based on American primacy means ensuring the United States stays the world's number one power‑the diplomatic, economic and military leader. Those arguing against primacy claim that the United States should retrench, ei­ther because the United States lacks the power to maintain its primacy and should withdraw from its global commitments, or because the maintenance of primacy will lead the United States into the trap of "imperial overstretch." In the previous t __ retrenchment __, in any of its guis­es, must be avoided. If the United States adopted such a strategy, it would be a profound strategic mistake that __ would lead to far greater instability and war in the world __ ,... __ the only way to bring relief to desperately poor countries of the Third World is through the adoption of free market economic policies and globaliza­tion, which are facilitated through Amer­ican primacy __ .4 As a witness to the failed alternative economic systems, Lal is one of the strongest academic proponents of American primacy due to the economic prosperity it provides.
 * Multiple impacts -**

**Akhtar, 10-** professor of international relations, and a senior analyst & writer. He was the dean of faculty of management, Baluchistan university, and former chairman of International Relations Department, Karachi university (1/26/10, Shameem, “Pakistan’s Instability : The US War Factor,” http://www.islamonline.net/servlet/Satellite?c=Article_C&cid=1262372328640&pagename=Zone-English-Muslim_Affairs/MAELayout#**1 ) __ If it is a war against extremists and militancy inside Pakistan, it is a civil war because its **origins stem** from the US ,____...____ overshadowed by the counterinsurgency operations in FATA, but they may erupt at any moment, thus destabilizing the state .__
 * First – Pakistan. A large counterinsurgency footprint drives insurgents to Pakistan, mobilizes the Pakistani Taliban and will cause Pakistan to collapse**

=1ac – Insurgency=


 * Pakistan collapse causes global nuclear conflict – draws in China, India and Russia**
 * Pitt, 9** - //a New York Times and internationally bestselling author of two books: "War on Iraq: What Team Bush Doesn't Want You to Know" and "The Greatest Sedition Is Silence." (5/8/09, William, “Unstable Pakistan Threatens the World,” // http://www.arabamericannews.com/news/index.php?mod=article&cat=commentary&article=2183 )

part of another conflict that is brewing, one which puts what is happening in Iraq and Afghanistan in deep shade, and which represents a grave and growing threat to us all. __ Pakistan is now trembling on the edge of violent chaos __, and is doing so... . The Obama administration appears to be gravely serious about addressing the situation. So should we all.

**Second – terrorism –**
 * Risk of nuclear terrorism is high – probably an attack will come from al Qaeda by 2013 **
 * Hall, 10** (Mimi, USA Today, “Obama seeks front against nuclear terror”, 4/12, http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2010-04-11-nukesummit_N.htm

WASHINGTON — President Obama is asking world leaders to commit to a new international offense against nuclear terrorism... it is more likely than not that a weapon of mass destruction will be used in a terrorist attack" by 2013.

=1ac – Hegemony=

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100628_30_year_war_afghanistan )
 * Withdrawal allows the US to replenish its strategic reserve**
 * Friedman, 10** - American political scientist. He is the chief intelligence officer, and CEO of the private intelligence corporation Stratfor. Prior to Stratfor, Friedman spent almost twenty years in academia, teaching political science at Dickinson College. During this time, he regularly briefed senior commanders in the armed services as well as the U.S. Army War College (George, “The 30-Year War in Afghanistan,” Stratfor, 6/29,

There is an anomaly in this strategy,... United States begin to free up forces and re-establish its ground reserves.

=1ac – Hegemony=


 * Reducing presence to just counterterrorism creates sustainable presence, and prevents vacillations between engagement and isolationism**
 * Stewart, 9-** Ryan Family Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (9/16/09, Rory, “The Future of Afghanistan,” http://www.hks.harvard.edu/news-events/news/testimonies/rory-stewart-on-afghanistan )

__The best Afghan policy would be to reduce the number of foreign troops from the current level of 90,000 to__ f __...__ and less money over a longer period. In Afghanistan in the long-term, less will be more.


 * The plan causes a shift to selective engagement **
 * Gventer, 9 ** - Senior Defense Analyst at the RAND Corporation and a former deputy assistant secretary of defense. She served two tours in Iraq, including a year as a senior adviser to General Peter Chiarelli, the operational commander in Iraq in 2006 (Celeste, “False Promise of 'Counterinsurgency'”, 12/1, http://www.rand.org/commentary/2009/12/01/NYT.html)

An effort to conduct "counterinsurgency" in Afghanista... credible U.S. military capable of applying overwhelming force.

=1ac – solvency=


 * Counterterrorism is sufficiently resourced to provide force protection, intelligence gathering, army training and will maintain the support of the local population **
 * Long, 10 ** - assistant professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs (Austin, “Small is Beautiful: The Counterterrorism Option in Afghanistan,” Orbis, Spring 2010, Science Direct)

This insoluble problem is why the counterterrorism option is important. If even a costly effort in Afghanistan cannot fully achieve the goal against al Qaeda, then it is crucial to determine whether a less costly effort can achieve a similar effect by keeping Afghanistan inhospitable to al Qaeda. This would be a clear and cost-effective alignment of resources with goals, the essence of strategy. Determining the viability of the counterterrorism option requires detailing what it might look like. Most discussion of the counterterrorism option has been vague. R... 29 This is small compared to the current posture in Afghanistan , smaller still than the forces implied in General McChrystal’s report, and tiny compared to the peak number of forces in Iraq. On the other hand, it is vastly larger than any other counterterrorism deployment.

** Troop freezes or increases will cause the Taliban to unite with al-Qaeda and collapse the Afghan government ** In June, Dutch army general Mart de Kruif estimated that there were between 10,000 and 18,000 Taliban fighters in southern Afghanistan. 15 The number of al Qaeda operatives appears to be much smaller. According to a Pakistani intelligence assessment provided to the // New York Times // last February, al Qaeda has adapted to ... troop increases are likely to push disparate Islamist groups to unite.
 * Innocent and Carpenter, 9 -** *foreign policy analyst at Cato who focuses on Afghanistan and Pakistan AND **vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at Cato (Malou and Ted, “Escaping the Graveyard of Empires: A Strategy to Exit Afghanistan,” [] )