Jack+McMillin+and+Jake+Movsovitz


 * Neg**

2n: Jmovsovitz@gmail.com

Tournament 2nrs: Heidegger

2nrs pre camp tourney:

Appeasement DA Consult Japan CP RIsing Expectations Japan DA Elections


 * Aff #1 - INCSEA**

The United States Federal Government should diplomatically engage in a binding, high-level incidents at sea agreement with the People’s Republic of China.
 * Plan:**


 * Adv 1 - Maritime Incidents**

Status quo China policy magnifies the risk of conflict while emboldening aggressive moves by our allies and threatening cooperative efforts – the impacts are linear
GOLDSTEIN ’15 (Dr. Lyle J.; Associate Professor in the China Maritime Studies Institute at the US Naval War College, Meeting China Halfway: How to Defuse the Emerging US-China Rivalry, p. 353-360)ww Military incidents and crises ... then inflames it further

====Status Quo US engagement policy and the Asia Pivot create the perception of containment by refusing to engage China bilaterally, causes Chinese aggression and emboldens our allies. An INCSEA is necessary to reduce the risk accidents and miscalc in the South and East China Seas====

KLEINE-AHLBRANDT ’15 (Stephanie; Director of the Asia-Pacific Program – U.S. Institute of Peace, “US-China Relation and Maritime Security in the Asia-Pacific,” in New Dynamics in US-China Relations: Contending for the Asia Pacific, edited by Mingjiang and Kemburi, p. 110-120)ww

Maritime security issues ... region is sustainable.

====Only risk of conflict between the US and China is in the form of miscalculation – accidents and confrontations are becoming more likely in the squo and risk escalation into all-out conflict. Current risk-reduction measures are inadequate and non-binding – the plan is key.==== Kovach 15 -- She is a four-time recipient of national journalism awards from the Marine Corps Heritage Foundation, most recently for reporting on the Marine withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014. Kovach received the 2014 Semper Fidelis award from the Marine Corps-Law Enforcement Foundation, for bringing the Marine Corps story home from the war zone to San Diego. She was a fellow in 2011 of the Medill National Security Journalism Initiative conference on covering the military. In 2015, she reported from China and other Asia-Pacific nations as a Jefferson fellow with the East-West Center in Honolulu, covering "The South China Sea: Trade, Resources and Conflict.” (Gretel C., “Unease at China’s rise in South China Sea: U.S. and Southeast Asian allies challenge expansive maritime claims”, http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2015/jun/27/china-rise-southeast-asia//bj) The U.S. and China are ... a real risk.”

Uniquely risks nuclear escalation – deterrence theory collapses in crisis situations
CIMBALA ’15 (Stephen J.; Professor of Political Science – Pennsylvania State University-Brandywine, “Chinese Military Modernization: Implications for Strategic Nuclear Arms Control,” Strategic Studies Quarterly, Summer, http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/digital/pdf/Summer_2015/cimbala.pdf)ww A nother characteristic of ... ability to control escalation .10

Accentuates structural inequality and causes extinction
Helfand, International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War co-president, ‘13 [Nov 4, Arms Control Association, The Humanitarian Consequences Of Nuclear War, [], accessed 7/3/16, ge] In March, 130 nations gathered ... of climate disruption

Independently, incidents at sea risk political fallout that disrupts U.S.-China cooperation on the environment, social unrest, the economy, and diseases
GRIFFITHS ’10 (David; an independent consulting analyst who specializes in international aspects of confidence, cooperation, and capacity building, with a particular focus on maritime and coastal zone issues, “U.S.-China Maritime Confidence Building: Paradigms, Precedents, and Prospects,” Naval War College China Maritime Studies Institute, Number 6, July)ww

As two great powers ... at an inopportune time

Disease Risks Extinction – Burnout and Natural Resistance Theories are Outdated
CASADEVALL ’12 (Arturo; M.D., Ph.D., Professor of Microbiology, Immunology and Infectious Diseases – Albert Einstein College of Medicine – Yeshiva University, “The Future of Biological Warfare,” Microbial Biotechnology, 5(5), EBSCO) ww In considering the importance ... natural evolution or bioengineering.

Confidence Building Measures like the plan overcome strategic distrust and solidify cooperative efforts in other areas
GURTOV ‘14 (Mel; Professor Emeritus of Political Science – Portland State University and Editor in Chief of Asian Perspectives, “Back to the Cold War? The US-China Military Competition,” 3/10, http://www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/back-to-the-cold-war-the-us-china-military-competition/)ww Looking back over the history ... change becomes irreversible

Sqou engagement insufficient - US-Sino tensions high
A recent high-level... these waters encompass
 * Thayer 3/22 **/2016 (Carl; Southeast Asia regional specialist who taught at the Australian Defence Force Academy, Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, Australian Command and Staff College, and Centre for Defence and Strategic Studies, Australian Defence College., “After Natuna Incident, South China Sea Tensions Likely to Get Worse Before They Get Better”, http://thediplomat.com/2016/03/after-natuna-incident-south-china-sea-tensions-likely-to-get-worse-before-they-get-better/”)AC

====Status Quo measures to address incidents at sea are insufficient – a high-level formal agreement is key – Even if China says ‘no’ the offer is sufficient to start a dialogue – Engagement builds trust and ensures strategic cooperation continues==== McVADON ’09 (Eric A.; Rear Admiral – United States Navy (Retired), Director of Asia Pacific Studies and Consultant on East Asia Security Affairs – Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, “The Reckless and the Resolute: Confrontation in the South China Sea,” China Security, v. 5, n. 2, Spring)ww The repetition of risky ... the need to hedge

Dialogue overcomes mistrust in the region and establishes a framework for dealing with conflicts
BOUCHAT ’14 (Clarence J.; Retired United States Air Force Officer and Current Senior Researcher – Strategic Studies Institute and Adjunct Faculty Member – U.S. Army War College, “The Paracel Islands and U.S. Interests and Approaches in the South China Sea,” June, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub1207.pdf)ww

The issue of immediate ... without foregoing the precepts of UNCLOS .391

China says ‘yes’ – signals it as a responsible actor in the SCS

 * Hong ’15 ** (Dr. Nong.; Director of the Center for Oceans Law and Policy at the China-based National Institute for South China Sea Studies (NISCSS) and Senior Fellow at the China Institute of the University of Alberta, Canada., “A look at China's stance on the South China Sea dispute”, [])AC

While China's rise stands ... respective core interests

Altering the decision makers solves
REDDEN and SAUNDERS ’12 (Mark E.; Captain – U.S. Navy, Senior Military Fellow in the Center for Strategic Research (CSR), Institute for National Strategic Studies, at the National Defense University and Phillip C.; Director of the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs and a Distinguished Research Fellow in CSR, “Managing Sino-U.S. Air and Naval Interactions: Cold War Lessons and New Avenues of Approach,” Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs Institute for National Strategic Studies, China Strategic Perspectives, No. 5, September)ww

A second approach would ... international rules and norms

A Binding, Formal Agreement solves Non-Compliance
HUGHES ’08 (Ensign Michael, JAGC, USNR; J.D. UCLA, “Ensuring ‘Fair Winds and Following Seas’: A Proposal for a Sino-American Incident at Sea Agreement,” 56 Naval L. Rev. 275, l/n)ww

Additionally, like INCSEA ... noncompliance with a future Sino-American ISA

Squo behavior isn’t indicative of post-agreement behavior
WINKLER ’14 (David F.; PhD, Commander – U.S. Navy (Retired) and Director of Programs – Naval Historical Foundation, Washington D.C., “Breaking News: Incidents at Sea Did Not End with the Cold War,” Canadian Naval Review, v. 9, n. 4)ww Pedrozo provides a ... in their actions

Yes Escalation – Shortened Decision Times, Human Error, and Third Parties
SMITH ’13 (Sheila A.; Senior Fellow for Japan Studies – Council on Foreign Relations, “A Sino-Japanese Clash in the East China Sea,” Contingency Planning Memorandum No. 18, April, http://www.cfr.org/japan/sino-japanese-clash-east-china-sea/p30504)ww

Although recent incidents ... response by either side

The United States federal government should repeal the Wolf Amendment and engage the People’s Republic of China in a dialogue over their participation as a partner on the International Space Station.
 * Aff #2 : ** **ISS**
 * Plan: **


 * The Advantage **

Inviting China to the ISS is key --- continued Chinese exclusion destroys international space partnerships

 * Bradley 13** [Mack A. Bradley, “The Space to Lead,” a thesis presented to the Washington University of St. Louis, Missouri, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts, August 2013]

After 40 years of intense ... of // Chinese design //

==== Positive engagement provides a foundation for a stronger overall relationship and reverses anti-Chinese sentiment amongst government planners – that allows cooperation on space weather modeling, satellite observation, and exploration ====
 * Weeden 15** [Brian, Technical Advisor for Secure World Foundation and a former U.S. Air Force Officer with sixteen years of professional experience in space operations and policy, “An Opportunity to Use the Space Domain to Strengthen the U.S.-China Relationship,” September 9, 2015, http://nbr.org/research/activity.aspx?id=602]

The U.S.-China relationship ... //outside the military realm//.

Expanded space cooperation enables more effective data sharing --- that produces better models capable of anticipating solar flares and geomagnetic storms

 * Johnson-Freese 15** [Joan Johnson-Freese is a Professor of National Security Affairs at the U.S. Naval War College, “Found in Space: Cooperation,” October 9, 2015, http://www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/u-s-china-space-cooperation-a-welcome-dialogue-begins]

The increasing U.S. propensity ... issues to go unaddressed

Hazardous space weather coming now – causes grid blackouts, satellite collapse, trillion dollars in damages and – collapses the modern world

 * Hines, 15** (Nico, London editor of The Daily Beast; 07/29/15; “You’ll Have 12 Hours to Get Ready for the Solar Storm That Could Paralyze the World”; http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/07/29/you-ll-have-12-hours-to-get-ready-for-the-solar-storm-that-could-paralyze-the-world.html)//JPM

LONDON — Last time it happened ...
 * felt for years.”**

Extinction
IBT 11 [ International Business Times, Solar Flare Could Unleash Nuclear Holocaust Across Planet Earth, Forcing Hundreds of Nuclear Power Plants Into Total Meltdowns, []]

What happens when ... of the total population.

US-China satellite cooperation crucial to ocean observation and climate models --- but anti-Chinese space collaboration precludes it

 * Freedman 13** [Andrew, “NOAA Criticized for Likely Satellite Gap and China Option,” September 23, 2013, []]

With a likely gap in critical weather ... loss of its fleet.

Effective satellite data models are key to ocean ecosystem adaptation

 * McCauley 16** [Douglas, professor of marine biology at the University of California, Santa Barbara and an Alfred P. Sloan Research Fellow in the Ocean Sciences, “How Satellites and Big Data Can Help to Save the Oceans,” Yale Environment 360, http://e360.yale.edu/feature/how_satellites_and_big_data_can_help_to_save_the_oceans/2982]

Yet a key question remains: ... sea as it happens.

The brink is now – acidification, warming and de-oxygenation all threaten to overwhelm ocean ecosystem resilience

 * Young 14** [Grace, thesis submitted for a Bachelor of Science in Mechanical & Ocean Engineering at MIT, “Missiles & Misconceptions: Why We Know More About the Dark Side of the Moon than the Depths of the Ocean” 1/17, []]

The misconceptions that ... before it is too late

It will end all life on the planet
Dingle 11 [Sarah, reporter for ABC Radio Current Affairs, “Ocean heading for mass extinction, scientists warn”, ABC News, [], June 21, 2011]

Scientists are warning ... partners in ISS

The invitation creates dialogues that opens up avenues for future engagement even if they say no

 * Kohler 15** [Hannah, J.D. from Georgetown Law, “The Eagle and the Hare: U.S.–Chinese Relations, the Wolf Amendment, and the Future of International Cooperation in Space,” Georgetown Law Journal vol. 103, 2015, []]

However the 2014–2015 Wolf Amendments ... //investments in space//.

Engagement good in the context of China
__ Engagement is the proper policy ... __ relationship with China
 * Franklin ’97 ** - President and CEO Barbara Franklin Enterprises & Former U.S. Secretary of Commerce (Barbara Hackman, China Today: Evil Empire or Unprecedented Opportunity, August 1, 1997)//LA

American scholars ignore substantial evidence of growing U.S.-Sino cooperation
China’s fast growth ... observation and research
 * Zurong 15 ** - Research fellow at the China Foundation for International Studies (Wu, “The Assumption That a Rising China Seeks Hegemony is Wrong,” May 4th, 2014, China U.S. Focus, http://www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/the-assumption-that-a-rising-china-seeks-hegemony-is-wrong/)

Engagement can co-exist interrogation of epistemology
Lynch 8 – M.A., M.Phil., Ph.D.(1993), Columbia University, Political Science 1 December 2008 (Cecelia Lynch, International Studies Review, Reflexivity in Research on Civil Society: Constructivist Perspectives, http://isr.oxfordjournals.org/content/10/4/708)//AR

In arguing this ... of intellectual practice.

Demanding specific, practical policy reforms is the only way to achieve scaled and durable change – strategic and skillful political engagement is necessary to solve structural racial violence

 * Liu 14** [Eric, “Time to turn protests into change,” CNN, December 4, 2014, []]

More than a week after the ... //season of powerful citizenship//.