achmmatlintashma

=Contact= Aff: ethanmatlin@gmail.com Neg: jtashma@gmail.com

=Aff=

Plan Text

 * The United States federal government should substantially normalize trade relations with Cuba.**

1ac leadership

 * Contention 1 is Leadership.**

The safeguarding of US authority requires multilateralism that is broader and certainly deeper than in AND own self-interest, lead the way to a new world order.
 * It’s unsustainable without a visible commitment to multilateralism**
 * Lake, 10–** Professor of Social Sciences, distinguished professor of political science at UC San Diego (David A., “Making America Safe for the World: Multilateralism and the Rehabilitation of US authority”, [|http://dss.ucsd.edu/~dlake/documents/LakeMakingAmericaSafe.pdf)//NG]

A core premise of deep engagement is that it prevents the emergence of a AND case would generate intensely competitive behavior, possibly including regional __great power war__ ).
 * US leadership prevents global conflict—retrenchment causes multiple great power wars**
 * Brooks et al 13** [Stephen G. Brooks is Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College.G. John Ikenberry is the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University in the Department of Politics and the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. He is also a Global Eminence Scholar at Kyung Hee University.William C. Wohlforth is the Daniel Webster Professor in the Department of Government at Dartmouth College. “Don't Come Home, America: The Case against Retrenchment”, Winter 2013, Vol. 37, No. 3, Pages 7-51,@http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/ISEC_a_00107, GDI File]

At the international political level, President Obama sees resuming relations with Cuba as a AND decline in the greater global order bringing true peace for years to come.
 * The plan is key to multilateralism—spills over to conflict prevention in the Mideast and Kashmir**
 * Dickerson 10** (Sergio M Dickerson, Lieutenant Colonel, US Army, paper submitted in fulfillment of a Master of Strategic Studies Degree at the US Army War College, “UNITED STATES SECURITY STRATEGY TOWARDS CUBA,” 1/14/10, [|http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a518053.pdf)//SJF]

// The two countries’ histories have long been intertwined, particularly after the Monroe Doctrine of // // AND // // truly **willing to extend his hand** once America’s traditional adversaries unclench their fists. //
 * The plan’s approach boosts US credibility in negotiating other global hot spots**
 * Hinderdael, 11-** M.A. candidate at SAIS Bologna Center, B.A in History and Economics from University of Virginia (Klaas, “Breaking the Logjam: Obama's Cuba Policy and a Guideline for Improved Leadership”, 6/11/11, [], google scholar)//KW//

//**Only __unconditional__ removal of the __entire embargo__ solves**// //**Vivanco 6**- LLM from Harvard Law School, Americas director of Humans Rights Watch (Jose Miguel, “Restraint, not force, will bring change to Cuba”, humans rights watch, 12/22/06, [], google scholar)//KW This reluctance would be understandable but misguided. Most Cubans do want change. If AND when the US stops acting like Goliath will Cuba stop looking like David.

FOR most of our history, theU nited S tates assumed that its security was inextricably AND cooperating in matters of common concern would be reduced to a historical footnote.
 * Independently, the plan sends a clear signal to improve Latin American relations**
 * White, 13**-Senior fellow at the Center for International Policy and former U.S. ambassador to Paraguay and El Salvador (Robert, “After Chávez, a Chance to Rethink Relations With Cuba”, New York Times, 3/7/13, []

Anti-Americanism has become the political chant de jour for leaders seeking long- AND throughout Latin America, and would go a long way toward creating goodwill.
 * U.S.-Cuba policy is the vital internal link—it’s the litmus test for greater Latin American engagement**
 * Perez, 10** ­– JD, Yale Law (David, “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U.S. State Department” 13 Harv. Latino L. Rev. 187, Spring, lexis)

In addition to economic and financial matters, Brazil and other Latin American nations are AND consultation and collaborationon a new, more effective approach to the problem.
 * Relations solve a laundry list—specifically terrorism, proliferation, and warming**
 * Inter-American Dialogue 12** (“Remaking the Relationship The United States and Latin America”, the Inter-American Dialogue is the leading US center for policy analysis, exchange, and communication on issues in Western Hemisphere affairs, April 2012, http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf)

Jonathan __Tepperman’s article__ in the September 7, 2009 issue of Newsweek, “Why AND __Jong-Il and his successors are more rational than Mr. Tepperman__ ?
 * Prolif leads to extinction**
 * Krieger, 9** [David, Pres. Nuclear Age Peace Foundation and Councilor – World Future Council, “Still Loving the Bomb After All These Years”, 9-4, https://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2009/09/04_krieger_newsweek_response.php?krieger]

Proliferation Optimism: Proliferation optimism was revived in the academy in Kenneth Waltz’s 1979 book AND that a future Middle East crisis could result in a devastating nuclear exchange.
 * Proliferation causes extinction – our card assumes your defense**
 * Kroenig, 12** [, Matthew, Assistant Professor of Government, Georgetown University and Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations, May 26th “The History of Proliferation Optimism: Does It Have A Future?” [])

__War is deeply embedded in__ our __history__ and our culture, probably since before we AND we shall effectively have abolished the ancient institution of warfare. Good riddance.
 * Multilateralism solves extinction**
 * Dyer ‘4–** independent journalist, cites Frans de Waal, Ph. D in biology, works at Yerkes National Primate Center (Gwynne, “The End of War: Our Task Over the Next Few Years is to Transform the World of Independent States into a Genuine Global Village”, [|http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1230-05.htm)//NG]

Any Third Lebanon War/General Middle East War is apt to involve WMD on AND , fought with 21st Century weaponry will be anything but the Biblical Armageddon.
 * Mideast war causes extinction**
 * Stirling 11**, hereditary Governor & Lord Lieutenant of Canada, Lord High Admiral of Nova Scotia, & B.Sc. in Pol. Sc. & History; M.A. in European Studies, “General Middle East War Nears - Syrian events more dangerous than even nuclear nightmare in Japan”, []


 * It’s uniquely likely**
 * Ferguson 7** – Professor of History @ Harvard University [Niall, 6/17, [], CMR]

__For some time I have been warning__ that __the next great global conflict will begin__ __AND__ will soon possess __nuclear weapons, and you have a recipe for Armageddon__**.**

Despite the crucial importance of national and regional initiatives, the world ultimately cannot solve AND mediator on the transatlantic divide; and a resurgent Russia remained largely apart.
 * Multilateralism is crucial to solutions to warming**
 * Lee et al 10** (Bernice Lee, Research Director, Energy, Environment and Resource Governance at Chatham House, “The United States and climate change: from process to action,” 2-23, [|http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/files/16489_us0510_lee_grubb.pdf)//NG]

One can imagine a scenario for global catastrophe that runs similarly. If the human AND __Mars—red, desolate, with perhaps a few hardy **microbes surviving.**__
 * Extinction**
 * Brandenburg & Paxson ’99** [John (physicist & rocket scientist) & Monica (award-winning author & expert on global warming), //Dead Mars, Dying Earth//, p. 232]

// The world has warmed since those heady days of Gaia, and scientists have grown // // AND // // scope, that could make a rapid transition from one state to another. //
 * Best methodology shows positive feedbacks will push us past the tipping point – causes extinction.**
 * Guterl 12** – Executive Editor of Scientific American, expert in Climate and Environment, Science Policy, citing James Hanson, a NASA scientist (Fred, “Climate Armageddon: How the World’s Weather Could Quickly Run Amok”, 5/25/12; < http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=how-worlds-weather-could-quickly-run-amok>)//Beddow//

//**Independently, CO2 causes ocean acidification–extinction.**// //**Romm 12** – physicist and climate expert, Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress (Joseph J., “Science: Ocean Acidifying so fast that it threatens humanity’s ability to feed itself”, 3/2/12; < http://earthlawcenter.org/news/headline/science-ocean-acidifying-so-fast-it-threatens-humanitys-ability-to-feed-itself/>) //Beddow __The world’s oceans may be turning acidic faster__ today __from human carbon emissions__ than they AND seafood” are poised to expand and “remain for thousands of years.”

Anderegg et al 10 – PhD Candidate @ Stanford in Biology (William, “Expert credibility in climate change,” National Academy of Sciences, p. 12107-12109)//BB
 * Global warming is real and human induced – top climate scientists agree**

Preliminary reviews of scientific literature and surveys of cli- mate scientists indicate striking agreement AND discussions in media, policy, and public __ forums regarding anthropogenic climate change __.

Understanding how decreases in CO2 emissions would affect global temperatures has been hampered in recent AND the same time scale as the political decisions that lead to the reductions.
 * It’s not inevitable—__every increment__ of C02 is key**
 * Matthews and Soloman 4/26** (H. Damon Matthews and Susan Solomon, Associate Professor and 2009/2010 University Research Fellow in the Department of Geography Planning and Environment at Concordia and an atmospheric chemist, working for most of her career at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 4/26/13, “Irreversible does not mean unavoidable”, [], t.c.)

1ac transition

 * Contention 2 is Transition**

// Cuba underRaúl Castro has entered a new period of economic, social, and // // AND // // -way trade must include both Cuba’s private sector as well as SOEs. //
 * Cuban reforms are inevitable but the status quo risks economic and social collapse – offering normal trade relations is vital**
 * Ashby 13,** Senior Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs. He served in the U.S. Commerce Department's International Trade Administration as Director of the Office of Mexico and the Caribbean and acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of Commerce for the Western Hemisphere (Timothy, "Preserving Stability in Cuba After Normalizing Relations with the United States – The Importance of Trading with State-Owned Enterprises" 3/29/13, Council on Hemispheric Affairs, http://www.coha.org/preserving-stability-in-cuba-timothy-ashby/)//AD//

//**Cuban collapse destroys the global war on terror and makes conflicts in hotspots around the globe more likely**// //**Gorrell, 5 -** Lieutenant Colonel, US Army, paper submitted for the USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT (Tim, “CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS?” [] **GWOT=Global War on Terrorism**// // Regardless of the succession, under the current U.S. policy, Cuba’s // // AND // // in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro Cuba? //

//**Hotspots risk escalation to global nuclear war**// // David Bosco (a senior editor at Foreign Policy magazine) July 2006 “Forum: Keeping an eye peeled for World War III” [] // // The understanding that small but violent acts can spark //**global conflagration**// is etched into the AND not even a hint that France, Russia or China would respond militarily.

The option with the greatest possibility of success and reward for the United States is AND guides her onto a path that will benefit the nations of the Americas.
 * The unconditional offer of normal trade relations boosts US-Cuban relations and fosters a stable transition**
 * Koenig, 10** (Lance Koenig, US Army Colonel, paper submitted for a Masters in Strategic Studies at the US Army War College, “Time for a New Cuba Policy” [])