Danish+Khan+and+Stephen+Lowe 

=Aff questions: dankhan1099@gmail.com= =Neg questions: stephenlowep@gmail.com=

= = = = =2NRs= Japan Disad/Case Low level coop CP/ Space leadership Disad Xi Good T- China spec Canada Coop CP/Japan Disad Taiwan do the plan CP/Japan Disad = = =1AC_Arctic(Khan,Michigan)=

Plan
====The United States federal government should offer to fully support and pursue full member status in the Arctic Council for the People’s Republic of China if the People’s Republic of China agrees to participate in bilateral cooperative agreements regarding Arctic scientific research and environmental policy issues.====

China won’t back Arctic warming initiatives, __decking__ US-China warming cooperation and unraveling the entire partnership – supporting __Beijing’s Arctic status__ is key
Tiezzi, 15 —Shannon, Editor at The Diplomat, previously served as a research associate at the U.S.-China Policy Foundation, MA @ Harvard, also studied at Tsinghua University in Beijing. “Why Did China Opt Out of the Arctic Climate Change Statement?” The Diplomat, Sept 1, [] --br On Sunday and Monday, foreign ministers and other international leaders met in Anchorage, AND Paris summit, and for U. //S.-China cooperation in general//.

Try or die – the Arctic will be ice free by 2100, driving 2/3 of all global trade through the Arctic without regulation
Saul and Chestney, 16 —Jonathan and Nina, Reuters reporters citing Whit Sheard of the Circumpolar Conservation Union, Julie Gourley, senior Arctic official at the U.S. State Department and multiple studies. “Arctic thaw opens shipping waterways, risks to environment,” Feb 25, [] --br The Arctic is thawing even //faster than lawmakers can formulate new rules// to prevent the AND damage caused by physical hazards encountered in the Arctic, and navigating restrictions."

__Arctic cooperation__ is __vital__ – it’s the __epicenter__ of __glacier research__ and __shipping__ emission regulation
Slayton and Brigham, 15 —David Slayton is research fellow, co-chair and executive director of the Arctic Security Initiative at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. Lawson W. Brigham is distinguished professor of geography and Arctic policy at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, a fellow at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy’s Center for Arctic Study & Policy, and a member of Hoover’s Arctic Security Initiative. “Strengthen Arctic cooperation between the US and China,” Aug 27, Alaska Dispatch News (ADN), [] --br Five key areas of cooperation can enhance Arctic cooperation between the U.S. AND the linkages of the polar regions to global change is another //fruitful course// ahead

It’s on the __brink__ – China’s carefully assessing US __signals of commitment__
Davenport, 16 —Coral, covers energy and climate change policy at The New York Times, previously a fellow with the Metcalf Institute for Marine and Environmental Reporting and covered energy and the environment for National Journal, Politico, and Congressional Quarterly. “Supreme Court’s Blow to Emissions Efforts May Imperil Paris Climate Accord,” New York Times (NYT), Feb 10, [] --br The Supreme Court’s surprise decision Tuesday to halt the carrying out of President Obama’s climate AND States has long been the //chief obstacle// to meaningful global climate change agreements.

Acting now is key to reviving US-China Arctic cooperation – it’s try or die
Slayton and Brigham, 15 —David Slayton is research fellow, co-chair and executive director of the Arctic Security Initiative at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. Lawson W. Brigham is distinguished professor of geography and Arctic policy at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, a fellow at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy’s Center for Arctic Study & Policy, and a member of Hoover’s Arctic Security Initiative. “Strengthen Arctic cooperation between the US and China,” Aug 27, Alaska Dispatch News (ADN), [] --br The China-U.S. relationship is a daily and recurring, sometimes AND , World Meteorological Organization, and International Hydrographic Organization, among other institutions.

The plan revives US-China cooperation by spurring __highly-visible__, __lasting__ changes
Slayton and Brigham, 15 —David Slayton is research fellow, co-chair and executive director of the Arctic Security Initiative at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. Lawson W. Brigham is distinguished professor of geography and Arctic policy at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, a fellow at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy’s Center for Arctic Study & Policy, and a member of Hoover’s Arctic Security Initiative. “Strengthen Arctic cooperation between the US and China,” Aug 27, Alaska Dispatch News (ADN), [] --br Fifth, joint Arctic marine research is an arena with much promise. Joint oceanographic AND within their already existing dialogue and in international organizations including the Arctic Council.

Arctic environmental cooperation spills over to boost multilateral cooperation and halt warfare globally creating a paradigmatic governance shift- but it’s on the brink
Heinenen, 16 —Lassi, Professor of Arctic Politics @ University of Lapland, Finland. author of more than 200 scientific publications and is the editor of //The Arctic Yearbook//. “High Arctic Stability as an Asset for Storms of International Politics,” __Future Security of the Global Arctic: State Policy, Economic Security and Climate__, Palgrave Macmillan, p. 4-8 [] --br More importantly, the international community is facing bigger and unpredicted challenges and serious irrational AND there are challenges, which go beyond state sovereignty and nationalistic security thinking.

Pursuing Chinese full member status in exchange for environmental cooperation locks in multilateral peace
Dwyer, 15 — Commander William G. Dwyer III, United States Coast Guard, “China’s Strategic Interests in the Arctic,” NDU Press 3rd Place Paper, United States Army War College, Joint Force Quarterly, NDU Press, [], p. 15-17 China and America share a common interest of freedom of navigation in the Arctic. AND current state of liberalism fostered through the Arctic Council to a realist view.

__US-China cooperation__ is key – they’re the __two largest emitters__ and __drive multilateral action__
Hongzhou, 15 —Zhang, Associate Research Fellow with the China Programme @ S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) at Nanyang Technological University (Singapore). “China-US Climate Change Cooperation: Beyond Energy,” The Diplomat, Oct 13, [] --br The Paris Summit in December 2015 is being seen as the “last chance” AND government retreats from efforts to curb emissions in favor of stabilizing economic growth.

US-China climate cooperation facilitates __mitigation and adaptation__ strategies globally – solves extinction
Li 14 – MA in Global Studies @ U Denver, Int’l Affairs Coordinator @ UN (Xiaoyu, “China-US Cooperation: Key to the Global Future,” China Institute of International Studies, http://www.ciis.org.cn/english/2014-01/13/content_6606656.htm) • Cooperation on climate change mitigation, adaptation, and consequence management. China- AND US businesses as well as//lower costs and widely disseminate// clean energy //technologies//.

Expert consensus that warming is real and existential – melting glaciers ignite a cascade that exceeds cost-benefit analysis
Treich and Rheinberger, 15 —Christoph Rheinberger (Professor of Health Policy and Management @ Harvard) and Nicolas Treich (Professor at the Toulouse School of Economics). Citing Weitzman (economist @ Harvard) and Bostrom (prof @ Oxford). “On the economics of the end of the world as we know it,” The Economist, [] -- br CLIMATE change //puts humanity at risk//. The Pope’s celebrated encyclical letter on the subject AND be very effective in overcoming the current inertia that climate negotiations suffer from.

==== Warming comes first its underrepresented in decision calculus - Ignoring Slow Violence psychologically structures ecological devastation- that plays out across temporal scales and justifies global violence. ==== Nixon 11 (Rob Nixon is the Rachel Carson Professor of English, University of Wisconsin-Madison, NY Times Contributor and former is an affiliate of the Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies the Harvard University Press 2011 “Slow Violence and the Environmentalism of the Poor” Pg 2-3 http://www.elimeyerhoff.com/books/nixon-rob--slow-violence-and-the-environmentalism-of-the-poor.pdf) Underlying his plan is an overlooked but crucial subsidiary benefit that he outlined: offloading AND are scientifically convoluted cataclysms in which casualties are postponed, often for generations.

**__ Framing __**

__No War- Institutions and cooperative norms check conflict escalation__
Pouliot 11 —Professor of Poli Sci @ McGill University [Vincent Pouliot, “Multilateralism as an End in Itself,” International Studies Perspectives (2011) 12, 18–26] Because it rests on open, nondiscriminatory debate, and the routine exchange of viewpoints AND that further strengthen the impetus for multilateral dialog. Pg. 21-23

No __great power war__---deterrence, economic interdependence, political and business elites and social changes
John Aziz 14, former economics and business editor at TheWeek.com, Don't worry: World War III will almost certainly never happen, March 6, http://theweek.com/article/index/257517/dont-worry-world-war-iii-will-almost-certainly-never-happen Next year will be the seventieth anniversary of the end of the last global conflict AND countries are less desperate to go to war to seize other people's stuff.

__Another institutional observation regarding the post-WWII calm is that institutions have 26 allowed__ __AND__ be significant, and so this suggests another avenue for further extension.36
 * Institutions and democracy check conflict **
 * Jackson and Nei 15 ** (Matthew O. Jackson is the William D. Eberle Professor of Economics at Stanford, and earned his PhD in economics from Stanford GSB -2015 draft- “Networks of Military Alliances, Wars, and International Trade” P. 26-27 http://arxiv.org/pdf/1405.6400.pdf)

Michael ** Quinlan 9 **, distinguished former British defence strategist and former Permanent Under-Secretary of State, Thinking About Nuclear Weapons, 63-9 Even if initial nuclear use did not quickly end the fighting, __the supposition of__ __AND__ __cosmic holocaust might be mistakenly precipitated in this way belongs to science fiction.__
 * No state would __escalate to use nuclear weapons__—no plausible scenario for global exchange **

Karina ** Sangha 11 **, MA Political Science-University of Waterloo, “”The Obsolescence of Major War: An Examination of Contemporary War Trends,” Vol 5, No 1: Spring 2011, http://web.uvic.ca/~onpol/spring2011/Two%20-%20Sangha.pdf Indeed, beyond analyses as to the frequency of major war,¶ __further support for__ __AND__ for such obsolescence, which we will now examine in greater¶ detail.
 * There’s no political support for launching great power conflicts—psychology has changed **

**__ Method __**

(Christian Parenti, former visiting fellow at CUNY's Center for Place, Culture and Politics, as well as a Soros Senior Justice Fellow, teaches in the Liberal Studies program at New York University, interview with Vincent Emanuele, writer, activist and radio journalist who lives and works in the Rust Belt, “Climate Change, Militarism, Neoliberalism and the State,” May 17, 2015, http://ouleft.sp-mesolite.tilted.net/?p=1980) You mention mutual aid and how it was overhyped by the left in the aftermath AND of climate science very seriously, I am something of a carbon fundamentalist.
 * Institutional action engages a social forum for productive political action capable of transforming legal barriers to ecological crises prevention **
 * Parenti & Emanuele 15 **

__This__ short advisory __paper__ collates a set of recommendations about how best to shape mass AND
 * Institutional action is the only solvency because individual agency lacks access to resources necessary to produce effective ecological solutions **
 * CAG 10 **—Climate Change Communication Advisory Group. Dr Adam Corner School of Psychology, Cardiff University - Dr Tom Crompton Change Strategist, WWF-UK - Scott Davidson Programme Manager, Global Action Plan - Richard Hawkins Senior Researcher, Public Interest Research Centre - Professor Tim Kasser, Psychology department, Knox College, Galesburg, Illinois, USA. - Dr Renee Lertzman, Center for Sustainable Processes & Practices, Portland State University, US. - Peter Lipman, Policy Director, Sustrans. - Dr Irene Lorenzoni, Centre for Environmental Risk, University of East Anglia. - George Marshall, Founding Director, Climate Outreach, Information Network - Dr Ciaran Mundy, Director, Transition Bristol - Dr Saffron O’Neil, Department of Resource Management and Geography, University of Melbourne, Australia. - Professor Nick Pidgeon, Director, Understanding Risk Research Group, School of Psychology, Cardiff University. - Dr Anna Rabinovich, School of Psychology, University of Exeter - Rosemary Randall, Founder and director of Cambridge Carbon Footprint - Dr Lorraine Whitmarsh, School of Psychology, Cardiff University & Visiting Fellow at the, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. (Communicating climate change to mass public audience, http://pirc.info/downloads/communicating_climate_mass_audiences.pdf)
 * __a role in fostering demand for - as well as acceptance of – policy__**

(Robin- National Foundation Fellow at the Integrative Graduate Education and Research Traineeship, Spring, “Narrating the Environmental Apocalypse: How Imagining the End Facilitates Moral Reasoning Among Environmental Activists” Ethics and the Environment, Vol 17 No 1, ProjectMuse) Environmental Apocalypticism and Activism As we saw in the introduction, critics often argue that AND apocalypticism and moral reasoning looks like in practice. [End Page 12]
 * The discourse of the 1ac is a tool for galvanizing support against climate change **
 * Veldman 12 ** – PhD Candidate Religion and Nature at U of Florida

AND
 * The Affirmative’s scenario planning is a useful practice which builds policy knowledge which can be translated into real world warming solutions– **
 * Wimbush 8 [S. **Enders, director of the Center for Future Security Strategies, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, “A Parable: The U.S.-ROK Security Relationship Breaks Down”, //Asia Policy//, Number 5 (January 2008), 7-24]
 * __What if the U.S.-__** ROK **__security relationship were to break down?__**
 * __with luck avoiding__****__having to say: “I never thought about that.”__**

__In deliberation something happens that typically fails to occur during ordinary political discourse. Much__ __AND__ __notion that **public deliberation leads citizens to focus more on the public good.**__ = = = =
 * Political simulation is empathic and better for decision-making **
 * Raisio 10** [Harri, Researcher, Faculty of Public Administration, University of Vaasa and PhD student in Social and Health Management, at the University of Vaasa, “The Public as Policy Expert: Deliberative Democracy in the Context of Finnish Health Care Reforms and Policies,” Journal of Public Deliberation, Volume 6, Issue 2, 2010]