Anna+and%20Fabi


 * The United States federal government should reduce its military presence in Afghanistan to levels consistent with a counterterrorism strategy.**


 * Advantage 1: Hegemony**


 * The US won’t withdraw in July 2011 – but the announcement of the deadline is perceived as withdrawal**
 * Rogin, 10** - staff writer for Foreign Policy, Prior to that, Josh covered defense and foreign policy for Congressional Quarterly. Josh has also worked at the House International Relations Committee, and the Brookings Institution (Josh, “Petraeus: Withdrawal timeline does not mean "switching off the lights",” The Cable, 6/29, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/06/29/petraeus_withdrawal_timeline_does_not_mean_switching_off_the_lights)

When General David Petraeus testifies …. exactly what they've been doing ."


 * Counterinsurgency doctrine is overstretching the US military and exhausting American leadership – withdrawing to a counterterrorism strategy is vital to preventing great power challengers**
 * Kretkowski, 10** – Frequently assists think tank in conferences and other work products that aid DoD's long-term thinking about threats that may not be addressable via weapons platforms. Spent six months in Afghanistan working with Army public affairs. (Paul, “Against COIN, for CT in Afghanistan and Elsewhere”, 1/7, Beacon (a blog), http://softpowerbeacon.blogspot.com/2010/01/against-coin-for-ct-in-afghanistan-and.html)

Over the winter break I had …… a rising power (China, a reinvigorated Russia ).

**Kuhner, 9 -** the president of the Edmund Burke Institute for American Renewal (Jeffrey, Washington Times, “Obama’s quagmire; US should look to its own interests,” 9/7, Lexis Academic)
 * Afghanistan is a quagmire of attrition warfare that is destroying US morale and readiness.**

America is losing the war in Afghanistan… welcoming arms of extremists.


 * This will obliterate American primacy**
 * Pyne, 9** **-** Vice Chair of the Utah State Legislative Compensation Commission and Vice President of the Association of the United States Army's Utah chapter and a Vice President of the Salt Lake Total Force Chapter of the Military Officers Association of America (David, “ Obama failing our troops in Afghanistan,” 11/7, http://westernfrontamerica.com/2009/11/07/obama-failing-troops-afghanistan/)

Since we invaded Iraq six … US-ally Georgia this past year.


 * American primacy is vital to accessing every major impact—the only threat to world peace is if we allow it to collapse**
 * Thayer, 6 -** professor of security studies at Missouri State (Bradley, The National Interest, “In Defense of Primacy”, November/December, p. 32-37)

A grand strategy based on American primacy … primacy due to the economic prosperity it provides.


 * The plan solves – reducing to a counterterrorism focus creates sustainable presence, and prevents vacillations between engagement and isolationism**
 * Stewart, 9-** Ryan Family Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (9/16/09, Rory, “The Future of Afghanistan,” http://www.hks.harvard.edu/news-events/news/testimonies/rory-stewart-on-afghanistan)

The best Afghan policy … Afghanistan in the long-term, less will be more.


 * Obama will sell the plan as a drawdown to a lighter but permanent commitment to Afghanistan – this resolves confusion over the withdrawal deadline and restores US credibility**
 * Stewart, 10** - Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at Harvard, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (Rory, “ Afghanistan: What Could Work”, New York Review of Books, 1/14, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2010/jan/14/afghanistan-what-could-work/?page=3)

But this moderate tone gains ….but a much greater focus on Kashmir .1


 * Advantage 2: the war**


 * Counterinsurgency is impossible in Afghanistan, multiple reasons**
 * Nelson, 9** – former director of a Joint Task Force in support of Operation Enduring Freedom, retired naval officer with assignments at the National Counterterrorism Center and National Security Council, and Senior Fellow at the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (Rick, “The Other Side of the COIN”, 10/1, http://csis.org/publication/other-side-coin)

Q1: General McChrystal is expected to … “all-in” approach would entail.


 * The war is unwinnable – large troop footprints drive the Pashtuns further towards the Taliban**
 * Fuller, 9** – CIA officer for 25 years, former CIA station chief in Kabul and a former vice-chair of the CIA's National Intelligence Council (Graham, Christian Science Monitor, 12/2, "Obama speech: kicking the can down the road in Afghanistan", lexis)

The "objective" situation in Afghanistan … Afghanistan will prevent exacerbation of the problem.

Galston 10 - Senior Fellow of Governance Studies @ Brookings (William, Senior Fellow of Governance Studies @ Brookings, “A Question of Life and Death: U.S. Policy in Afghanistan,” Brookings, June 15th, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2010/0615_afghanistan_galston.aspx)
 * A large military footprint combined with the perception of an illegitimate government make crushing the Taliban impossible – it can recruit faster than we can kill**

Are the basic premises … political force in Afghanistan.


 * Multiple impacts -**

**Akhtar, 10-** professor of international relations, and a senior analyst & writer. He was the dean of faculty of management, Baluchistan university, and former chairman of International Relations Department, Karachi university (1/26/10, Shameem, “Pakistan’s Instability : The US War Factor,” http://www.islamonline.net/servlet/Satellite?c=Article_C&cid=1262372328640&pagename=Zone-English-Muslim_Affairs/MAELayout#**1)**
 * First – Pakistan. A large counterinsurgency footprint drives insurgents to Pakistan, mobilizes the Pakistani Taliban and will cause Pakistan to collapse**


 * If it is a war against extremists … they may erupt at any moment, thus destabilizing the state.**

Pakistan collapse causes global nuclear conflict – draws in China, India and Russia Pitt, 9**- //a New York Times and internationally bestselling author of two books: "War on Iraq: What Team Bush Doesn't Want You to Know" and "The Greatest Sedition Is Silence." (5/8/09, William, “Unstable Pakistan Threatens the World,”// http://www.arabamericannews.com/news/index.php?mod=article&cat=commentary&article=2183)**

But a suicide bomber in Pakistan … addressing the situation. So should we all.

Second – terrorism –

Risk of nuclear terrorism is high – probably an attack will come from al Qaeda by 2013 Hall, 10 **(Mimi, USA Today, “Obama seeks front against nuclear terror”, 4/12, http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2010-04-11-nukesummit_N.htm**


 * WASHINGTON — President Obama is asking …. used in a terrorist attack" by 2013 .**

Anti Americanism from occupation is the greatest link to global terrorism – Afghanistan is irrelevant Pena 09 **- Senior Fellow, The Independent Institute (December 9, Charles, “Can the U.S. Withdraw from Afghanistan and Iraq? ” http://www.independent.org/events/transcript.asp?eventID=145 )**


 * Here are the issues. Number one, …. after the United States in the U.S. **

Nuclear terrorism causes extinction Morgan, 9 **- Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin Campus - South Korea (Dennis, Futures, November, “World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race,” Science Direct)**


 * In a remarkable website on nuclear war, …. suffering in a nuclear winter .**

Gradual withdrawal while maintaining a counterterrorism strategy allows more effective US leadership in the war on terror and maximizes US credibility Chellany, 09 **- professor of strategic studies at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi (9/14/09, Brahma, Japan Times, “An Advantagous U.S. Exit,” http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20090914bc.html)**


 * When the administration's principal war target … deep-rooted military-mullah alliance. **

A substantial drawdown to a purely counterterrorism presence will maximize US influence in Central Asia and contain instability and terrorism Simon, and Stevenson, 9 *** adjunct Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, AND** Professor of Strategic Studies at the US Naval War College, (Steven and Jonathan, “Afghanistan: How Much is Enough?” Survival, 51:5, 47 – 67, October 2009 http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/section?content=a915362559&fulltext=7132409)

An effort on that scale would garner majority US … problem that it has, in fact, become.


 * Withdrawal of combat troops will immediately turn the population against the Taliban and shore up Afghan government legitimacy**
 * Dorronsoro, 9 -**Visiting Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (January 2009, Gilles, “Focus and Exit: An Alternative Strategy for the Afghan War,” http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/afghan_war-strategy.pdf)

This three-zone strategy …. Afghanistan’s peripheral regions.


 * A counterterrorism posture empirically works – it reduces the threat of terrorism and can provide intelligence without undermining US credibility**
 * Long, 10** - assistant professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs (Austin, “Small is Beautiful: The Counterterrorism Option in Afghanistan,” Orbis, Spring 2010, Science Direct)

It will therefore take about … alternative for the U nited S tates.


 * Advantage 3: Dollar**


 * Counter-insurgency being waged in Afghanistan is key cause of dollar vulnerability which is the US’s hegemonic Achilles’ heel**
 * Layne 10-** is Professor and Robert M. Gates Chair in National Security at Texas A&M’s George H.W. Bush School of Government & Public Service (Christopher Layne, “Graceful Decline,” The American Conservative, May 2010, http://www.amconmag.com/article/2010/may/01/00030/)

The dollar’s vulnerability is … being waged in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Bounding Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan,” Small Wars Journal, 10/21, http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2009/10/toward-a-kilcullenbiden-plan/
 * COIN collapses the dollar**
 * Corn, 9** – Ph.D. from the University of Paris and is a graduate of the U.S. Naval War College, currently on leave from the US State Department (Tony, “Toward a Kilcullen-Biden Plan?

Just do the math - …. Vice-President Joe Biden.


 * Economic leadership prevents economic collapse—leadership preserves resilience**
 * Mandelbaum** **2005** – Professor and Director of the American Foreign Policy Program at Johns Hopkins – 2005 [Michael, The Case for Goliath: How America Acts As the World’s Government in the Twenty-First Century, p. 192-195]

Although the spread of … this way resemble a fleet of cars without gasoline.


 * That goes nuclear without economic leadership**
 * Mandelbaum 2005** – Professor and Director of the American Foreign Policy Program at Johns Hopkins – 2005 [Michael, The Case for Goliath: How America Acts As the World’s Government in the Twenty-First Century, p. 224]

At best, an American withdrawal would … in large numbers, of nuclear weapons.