Pappas+and+Miles

=1ac korea aff=


 * Plan: The United States federal government should implement a phased withdrawal of its military presence in the Republic of Korea.**


 * Advantage one is China**

“First Among Equals,” [], JMP) It’s the job of military … **__ smoother will be the transition. __**
 * China war is inevitable --- the plan eases the transition to multipolarity**
 * Bandow, 09** – Fellow at the American Conservative Defense Alliance and Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (1/12/09, Doug,

 NO NORMAL DIPLOMACY The U.S. finds … __it. We can help them do so.__
 * And withdrawal prevents war with China**
 * Garfinkle, 03** – taught American foreign policy and Middle East politics at the University of Pennsylvania and is editor of The National Interest (1/27/03, Adam, National Review, “Checking Kim,” [], JMP)

Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United States of America”, []] __ A war between China, Taiwan … __ be considered in this study. **Bandow, 09** – senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to Reagan (2/24/09, Doug, “Balancing Beijing,” EBSCO, JMP) So Washington should exhibit humility … other’s economic and geopolitical ambitions.
 * Global Nuclear war**
 * Hunkovic, 09 –** American Military University [Lee J, 2009, “The Chinese-Taiwanese Conflict
 * The plan ensures china’s rise is peaceful – solves relations**

Third, __ there are **many common …** __ terrorism and promoting world peace. We need to get prepared … us towards a similar hothouse Earth.
 * Strong Relations solve warming and global peace**
 * Zhou, 8,** Assistant Professor in the Department of Asian Languages and Cultures at Hobart and William Smith Colleges – NY -- Dr. Jinghao, Does China’s Rise Threaten the United States? Asian Perspective, Vol. 32, No. 3, 2008, pp. 171-182
 * Extinction**
 * Tickell, 08** (Oliver, Climate Researcher, The Gaurdian, “On a planet 4C hotter, all we can prepare for is extinction”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange)


 * Advantage Two is Regionalism**

At the conclusion of the … a strong, independent East Asian Union.
 * Bilateral policies fail --- regionalism is key to stability**
 * Francis, 06** – former Australian Ambassador to Croatia and fellow at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University from 05-06 (Fall 2006, Neil, Harvard International Review, “For an East Asian Union: Rethinking Asia's Cold War Alliances,” [], JMP)

** Carpenter ** and Bandow **4 - *** Vice President of Defense and Foreign Studies at the Cato Institute, AND ** Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute **(**Ted Galen Carpenter, 12/2004, The Korean Conundrum: America’s Troubled Relations With North and South Korea, pg 160-161) The security treaties with the … **central and west-central Pacific. **   **Regionalism solves great power war** Korea’s Option of Multilateral Security … __ form of the U.S.-Korea alliance. __
 * The plan is key --- presence ensures other countries pass the buck to the US**
 * Lee, 09** – Seoul National University (December 2009, Geun, “The Nexus between Korea’s Regional Security Options and Domestic Politics,” [|www.cfr.org], JMP)

__ A stronger **regional security organization** …__ will exist in the future.  __ MAKING THESE flash-points __ __all …__ openness toward repression and irredentism. Today China buys weapons from European states and Israel, but most importantly from Russia. The latest multibillion-dollar deal includes two Sovremenny-class destroyers equipped with the much-feared SS-N-22 cruise missile, capable of defeating the Aegis anti-missile defenses of the U.S. Navy and thus sinking American aircraft carriers. This is in addition to the Su-27 fighter aircraft, quiet Kilo-class submarines, and other force-projection and deterrent technologies. In turn, the Asian states are buying or developing their own advanced aircraft, missiles, and submarines--and considering nuclear options. __ The sort of unintended escalation __ __… Japan--or the __ __ U __ nited __ S __ tates. **Advantage Three is Korean War** [], JMP) USUALLY, there is a familiar cycle to Korea crises.  Like a street gang showing off … **__ North Korea found its customers. __**
 * And, it solves territorial disputes and a litany of other impacts**
 * Nanto, 08** – Specialist in Industry and Trade Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division for Congressional Research Services (1/4, “East Asian Regional Architecture: New Economic and Security Arrangements and U.S. Policy,” www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33653.pdf)
 * Territorial disputes cause great power wars**
 * Waldron, 97** – professor of strategy and policy at the U.S. Naval War College and an associate of the Fairbank Center for East Asian Research at Harvard (March 1997, Arthur, Commentary, “How Not to Deal with China,” EBSCO
 * The risk of miscalculation and war on the peninsula is high now the status quo is fundamentally different**
 * Sanger, 10** (5/28/10, David E. Sanger, NY Times, “In the Koreas, Five Possible Ways to War,”

Suspicions continue to mount that … doing so in 2010 is bizarre. The international community is increasingly … consideration from the international community.
 * And, the plan solves U.S. presence makes provocations inevitable and guarantees our draw in**
 * Bandow, 10** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (5/3/10, Doug, “Taming Pyongyang,” [], JMP)
 * Extinction**
 * Hayes** & Hamel-Green**, 10** – *Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development, AND ** Executive Dean of the Faculty of Arts, Education and Human Development act Victoria University (1/5/10, Executive Dean at Victoria, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia,” [])
 * Contention two is solvency**

South Korea The U.S. alliance with the Republic … to forcibly reunify the peninsula. Under those conditions, South Korea should certainly be able to defend itself. Yet instead of building military forces sufficient to protect its security, Seoul remains heavily dependent on the United States for key aspects of its defense. Despite its proximity to North Korea, the ROK spends a paltry 2.77 percent of its gross domestic product on the military—less than does the United States, half a world away and located in a peaceful region. There is simply no justification for continuing that free ride. Equally unpleasant is the growing … with a nuclear-armed North Korea. That is not to say that the United States has no interests at stake regarding North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. Washington understandably wants to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons—in East Asia and elsewhere. There is also legitimate concern that North Korea might eventually become a nuclear arms peddler, supplying bombs to other anti-American regimes— and perhaps even to terrorist organizations. Pyongyang’s apparent assistance to Syria regarding nuclear technology highlighted the proliferation problem. Nevertheless, the danger a nuclear-armed North Korea could pose to the United States is more remote and theoretical than the danger to North Korea’s neighbors. Their risk exposure is inherent—imposed by the realities of geography. Even if North Korea acquired only a few nuclear warheads and only modestly increased the range of its current delivery systems, it would pose a plausible threat to the security of South Korea, Japan, China, and Russia. Conversely, __America’s risk exposure is …__ have the most at stake. It is time, indeed it is long past time, to insist that South Korea manage its own security affairs. The United States has drawn down its military forces stationed in that country from approximately 37,000 to 27,000 over the past six years. Washington should implement a complete withdrawal within the next three years and terminate the misnamed mutual security treaty. That commitment was designed for an entirely different era. There is no need and very little benefit today for keeping South Korea as a security client.
 * A phased withdrawal prevents U.S. draw in – regional security efforts can effectively resolve Korea crises**
 * Carpenter, 09** – vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute (Ted Galen, CATO Handbook for Congress, 7th Edition, “54. East Asian Security Commitments,” [], JMP)

[], JMP) President George W. Bush famously said … **__ likely to become near impossible .__**  Reports suggest that Kim Jong-il may have pancreatic cancer; some analysts predict he could die within the year. Since the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) was established in 1948, only two men have held supreme power: Kim Il-sung, who died at age eighty-two in 1994, and his son, Kim Jong-il. The monarchical succession from the former to the latter faced opposition at home and in China, the DPRK’s closest ally, but Kim Jong-il’s rise to power was carefully orchestrated by his father in a process that took more than two decades. Who now will take the throne?  North Korea has evolved into the modern equivalent of the Ottoman Empire. “Great Leader” Kim Il-sung was married twice and had many other relationships. Kim Jong-il apparently has had four wives or long-term mistresses. The result has been several children from different spouses as well as a number of illegitimate children. Family members have played a significant role in the regime. Kim Jong-il faced political competition from his uncle, Kim Yong-ju, who eventually was sidelined by Kim Il-sung. Kim Jong-il also pushed aside his younger half-brother, Kim Pyong-il, who since 1979 has been posted as ambassador to several European nations, keeping him out of domestic North Korean politics. When the elder Kim died in July 1994, Kim Jong-il appeared to face little opposition to taking control. Until Kim Jong-il fell ill, he appeared to give little thought to his succession. However, STRATFOR’s Roger Baker believes that Kim “has a very strong fear that after he dies, if the country changes direction, that his family may be on the receiving end of vigilantism or punished or killed.” That’s plausible, though Kim may simply desire to cement his legacy by choosing someone who would have little choice but to venerate Kim’s rule. Observes Atsuhito Isozaki of Tokyo’s Keio University: “Since Kim had a stroke last year, North Korea appears to be in a hurry in naming his successor.” Earlier this year Kim apparently designated twenty-six year-old Kim Jong-un, his youngest son, as his heir. Reports indicate that Kim Jong-un was recently shifted from his position at the Korean Workers’ Party to the National Defense Commission (NDC). Party and military officials have been tasked with promoting the younger Kim, jokingly referred to by some observers as “Cute Leader”; he is being called “Brilliant Comrade” and “Commander Kim” by the North’s media. Open Radio for North Korea reports that diplomats and military leaders have been informed of his new status and promotional efforts have been launched, including party and military propaganda campaigns. Reports are circulating that the succession may be confirmed at an upcoming party conference in October of this year or next. Another theory is that the process may be formalized in 2012, the centenary of the birth of Kim Il-sung. Kim Jong-un is a virtual unknown outside of North Korea. Only one photo of him exists, taken when he attended the International School in Bern, Switzerland. During his two years there he apparently demonstrated some proficiency in English, French, and German, enjoyed skiing and watching Hollywood action movies, and favored the National Basketball Association. Classmates say he showed no political interest, though he was only in his mid-teens then. However, __unless Kim Jong-il …__ named Jang to the NDC. Jang is only four years younger than Kim and his independent authority is hard to assess. Jang, backed by the NDC’s O Kuk-ryol and Kim Yong-chun, is thought to have been tasked to act as Kim Jong-un’s principal mentor. However, he might not be satisfied playing a secondary role in the event of Kim Jong-il’s death. Many other senior officials have been waiting for years and even decades to take charge. Their loyalty to Kim Jong-il might not survive his death. Especially since there are more than a few Kim family members available to front for competing factions. For instance, Kim Jong-il’s oldest son is thirty-eight year-old Kim Jong-nam, who apparently fell into disgrace after he was discovered traveling on a forged passport while attempting to enter Japan in order to visit Tokyo Disneyland. He now lives in Macau. Although he seems out of the power equation and in a television interview voiced his support for Kim Jong-un, reports recently surfaced that his supporters were being purged and that Kim Jong-un’s aides organized an assassination plot, busted by China. (If true, this would seem to mimic the Ottoman practice of new sultans eradicating male family members who could challenge their ascension.) Kim Jong-un has an older brother, Kim Jong-chol. Their mother, Ko Yong-hui, is said to have been Kim Jong-il’s favorite wife. Before she died of cancer in 2004 she reportedly was promoting both sons as potential heirs. The twenty-eight year-old Kim Jong-chol is supposedly sickly and viewed as effeminate by his father. Nevertheless, he apparently runs the Party Leadership Department, traditionally a critical position. However, some of the department’s functions apparently have been transferred to Jang. Although Kim Jong-chol has formally pledged to support his younger brother, that could change and the former could be used by a competing faction. Kim Jong-il’s current wife/mistress, Kim Ok, and her relatives, though currently unimportant politically, also conceivably could play a role in providing a family connection in any ensuing power struggle. So could Kim Pyong-il, Kim Jong-il’s half-brother who is currently serving as the DPRK’s ambassador to Poland. More distant family members are not likely to dominate the North’s political future, but still might play a role in any factional struggle. __How this international soap opera will turn out is anyone’s guess. But it could have a **significant impact on Pyongyang’s relations** ** with the rest of the world **—and not for the better.__ Given the horrors perpetuated by … more unsettled and dangerous future. Two men have ruled the northern half of the Korean peninsula for sixty-three years. “Great Leader” Kim Il-sung was installed by the Soviets after the peninsula was divided by the victorious powers at the end of World War II. He gradually moved his son, Kim Jong-il, into a central leadership role, and the “Dear Leader” took over after his father’s death in July 1994. But Kim Jong-il has gone missing amid rumors of illness, incapacity, or death. What comes next if the Dear Leader does not reemerge? North Korea offers a rare example … __, with competing wives and families.__ Kim Jong-il pushed aside an uncle and younger step-brother in his rise to power. He has three sons by two different wives (whether de jure or de facto no one knows for sure) and a son-in-law. His brother-in-law, Jang Song-taek, disappeared in a purge a few years ago but recently reemerged. Suspected illegitimate children wield political power and make economic deals. But if Kim is out, the family reign seems over. The Great Leader went to great effort to empower his eldest son. Jong-il first received public mention as the unnamed “party center,” allowing him to shape the communist hierarchy. But Jong-il’s oldest son is in disgrace. His second son is a couple weeks short of his twenty-seventh birthday. The youngest may be the most promising, but Korean culture venerates age and seniority. None of the sons have taken obvious, let alone important, political roles. Jang ranks second in the party hierarchy, but his influence absent Kim Jong-il is hard to assess. Top officials outside of Kim’s family are closely tied to the two rulers, but are unlikely to offer more than transitional leadership. Number two and de facto head of state Kim Yong-nam (no relation) is nearly eighty-one. The top military leader Jo Myong-rok is Kim’s number two on the National Defense Commission but also is over eighty-two. A better bet might be another, younger general, O Kuk-ryol. Of course, all speculation will …, it **__ could have deadly consequences .__** Analysts have long speculated on whether Kim was serious about negotiating away his country’s nuclear program and if he had sufficient authority to impose a pacific policy on the military. The nuclear negotiations recently stalled, with Pyongyang growing more belligerent after Washington refused to remove North Korea from its list of terrorist states. Whether this reflects a routine turn in DPRK negotiating strategy, an increase in military influence, or a problem with Kim Jong-il’s health no one knows. It’s tempting to believe that things can’t get worse in North Korea, where an unpredictable, brutal personal dictatorship has left the common people to suffer through mass immiseration and starvation. However, by all accounts Kim is intelligent and understands the challenges facing his nation. And it is conceivable, even if not likely, that he has been convinced of the economic and political benefits to be gained from nuclear disarmament. But if not Kim, then … **__importantly South Korea and China.__**
 * And, Succession politics makes … provocations __more likely and dangerous__**
 * Bandow, 09** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (7/29/09, Doug, “Kim’s Heir,”
 * The plan solves by motivating China and South Korea to effectively influence the leadership transition**
 * Bandow, 08** – Fellow at the American Conservative Defense Alliance and former special assistant to Reagan (9/15/08, Doug, “Dear Leader Goes South,” [], JMP)

On the night of March 26 … __destroyed the South Korean warship.__ Normally such an unprovoked attack would start a war, but the Korean peninsula is not a normal place. The Koreans, with their strong sense of nationalism, remain divided along the 38th parallel, with a 2.5 mile “demilitarized zone” between them. Meanwhile approximately 28,000 US troops still help guard the border. An armistice formally ended hostilities in Korea in 1953, but officially the war never ended. No peace treaty was ever signed. One year ago, the North formally and ominously withdrew from the armistice. North Korea, a tiny country with the world’s 4th largest standing army, is the most militarized society in the world. It has a standing army of 1.2 million soldiers, and a peasant militia with as many as 4 million reserves. Some 13,000 artillery pieces, dug into the hills within range of the South Korean capital of Seoul, are poised to obliterate the South’s most important city upon “The Dear Leader’s” command. Some estimates suggest that as many as one million South Koreans could die under such an assault. Then there’s the matter of North Korea’s several nuclear weapons. __ South Korea __, officially the “Republic … leverage to obtain outside assistance. South Korea today might well be able to ultimately defend itself against the North, but the bloodshed would be horrific. A key factor in any future conflict is Seoul’s location so near the North. Experts suggest (See “Is Kim Jong-il Planning to Occupy Seoul?” ) that a recently revised North Korean military strategy consists of swiftly taking Seoul and holding the city’s millions of people as hostages. All of this begs a couple of important questions. How many more South Korean ships can be torpedoed before the South retaliates, surely starting a larger war? And, what are 28,000 American troops doing in the middle of this Korean powder keg? As the sinking of the Cheonan clearly indicates, the sparks are already flying. __The permanent US military deployment__ … __home before it’s too late.__ Second, the United States, South … in the North Korean issue.
 * U.S. presence is useless to deter North Korea – withdrawal will motivate South Korea and China to stabilize and de-nuclearize the peninsula**
 * Erickson, 10** – Executive Director of CenterMovement.org (5/6/10, Stephen, “End the Cold War in Korea: Bring American Troops Home Before it’s Too Late,” [], JMP)
 * Its critical to get china on board --- solves stability and conflict**
 * Bandow, 10** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (5/3/10, Doug, “Taming Pyongyang,” [], JMP)