Jordan+and+Zach

=Afghanistan- Hegemony and War= = = =1ac – plan=

Plan: The United States federal government should substantially reduce military presence assigned to the counterinsurgency mission in Afghanistan.

=1ac – Hegemony=


 * Advantage I: Hegemony**


 * The war in Afghanistan will collapse American primacy – 2 internal links:**


 * First – credibility. Obama announced a July 2011 withdrawal date, but it is based on the conditional success of the counterinsurgency mission. This deadline is __perceived__ as unconditional withdrawal and has created global confusion** [J1]
 * Rogin, 10** - staff writer for Foreign Policy, Prior to that, Josh covered defense and foreign policy for Congressional Quarterly. Josh has also worked at the House International Relations Committee, and the Brookings Institution (Josh, “Petraeus: Withdrawal timeline does not mean "switching off the lights",” The Cable, 6/29, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/06/29/petraeus_withdrawal_timeline_does_not_mean_switching_off_the_lights )

When General David … they've been doing ."

=1ac – Hegemony [J2] =


 * The counterinsurgency mission will fail for multiple reasons – there is no chance of meeting the deadline** [J3]
 * Nelson, 9** – former director of a Joint Task Force in support of Operation Enduring Freedom, retired naval officer with assignments at the National Counterterrorism Center and National Security Council, and Senior Fellow at the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (Rick, “The Other Side of the COIN”, 10/1, http://csis.org/publication/other-side-coin )


 * Q1: General McChrystal …** “all-in” approach would entail.

=1ac - Hegemony=


 * Cross border sanctuaries, government corruption, ethnic tensions within the Afghan army and the utter failure of population protection makes failure inevitable**
 * Dorronsoro, 10** - visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment, is an expert on Afghanistan, Turkey, and South Asia. Previously, Dorronsoro was a professor of political science at the Sorbonne, Paris and the Institute of Political Studies of Rennes (Gilles, “The Case for Negotiations,” In These Times, 5/24, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=40863 [J4]

The coalition's strategy…Hence the need for a negotiated settlement. =1ac - Hegemony=


 * Security exists only in 5 of 116 areas in Afghanistan and the Taliban is spreading despite Obama’s surge – the problem is COIN itself**
 * Hallinan, 10** -columnist for foreign policy in focus (7/22/10, Conn, “The Great Myth: Counterinsurgency,” [] ) [J5]

When it was launched … General Stanley McChrystal.

=1ac – Hegemony=


 * Failure will spillover to the entirety of US foreign policy and prevent Obama from exercising leadership**
 * Fernholz, 10** – writing fellow at the American Prospect and Research Fellow at the New America Foundation (Tim, The American Prospect, “The Ultimate Test Case,” March, 2010, lexis) **Katulis = security policy analyst at the Center for American Progress** [J6]

Obama's final … any of his other initiatives. =1ac - Hegemony=


 * The plan restores US credibility – ending the counterinsurgency mission will salvage Obama’s Afghanistan policy and allow a sustainable presence ** [J7]
 * Stewart, 10 ** - Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at Harvard, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (Rory, “ Afghanistan: What Could Work”, New York Review of Books, 1/14,  http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2010/jan/14/afghanistan-what-could-work/?page=3)

But this moderate … focus on Kashmir .1

=1ac – Hegemony=


 * Second –overstretch**


 * COIN is overstretching the US military and exhausting American leadership – withdrawing to a counterterrorism strategy is vital to preventing great power challengers **
 * Kretkowski, 10 ** – Frequently assists think tank in conferences and other work products that aid DoD's long-term thinking about threats that may not be addressable via weapons platforms. Spent six months in Afghanistan working with Army public affairs. (Paul, “Against COIN, for CT in Afghanistan and Elsewhere”, 1/7, Beacon (a blog), http://softpowerbeacon.blogspot.com/2010/01/against-coin-for-ct-in-afghanistan-and.html)

Over the winter …, a reinvigorated Russia  ).

=1ac – Hegemony=

** Kuhner, 9 - ** the president of the Edmund Burke Institute for American Renewal (Jeffrey, Washington Times, “Obama’s quagmire; US should look to its own interests,” 9/7, Lexis Academic)
 * Afghanistan is a quagmire of attrition warfare that is destroying US morale and readiness.**

America is losing … welcoming arms of extremists.

=1ac – Hegemony=


 * This will obliterate American primacy **
 * Pyne, 9 - ** Vice Chair of the Utah State Legislative Compensation Commission and Vice President of the Association of the United States Army's Utah chapter and a Vice President of the Salt Lake Total Force Chapter of the Military Officers Association of America (David, “  Obama failing our troops in Afghanistan,” 11/7, http://westernfrontamerica.com/2009/11/07/obama-failing-troops-afghanistan/)

Since we invaded … Georgia this past year. =1ac – Hegemony=


 * American primacy is vital to accessing every major impact—the only threat to world peace is if we allow it to collapse**
 * Thayer, 6 - ** professor of security studies at Missouri State (Bradley, The National Interest, “In Defense of Primacy”, November/December, p. 32-37)

A grand strategy … economic prosperity it provides.

=1ac – Hegemony=


 * Reducing presence to just counterterrorism creates sustainable presence, and prevents vacillations between engagement and isolationism**
 * Stewart, 9-** Ryan Family Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (9/16/09, Rory, “The Future of Afghanistan,” http://www.hks.harvard.edu/news-events/news/testimonies/rory-stewart-on-afghanistan )

__The best Afghan …__ less will be more.


 * The plan causes a shift to selective engagement **
 * Gventer, 9 ** - Senior Defense Analyst at the RAND Corporation and a former deputy assistant secretary of defense. She served two tours in Iraq, including a year as a senior adviser to General Peter Chiarelli, the operational commander in Iraq in 2006 (Celeste, “False Promise of 'Counterinsurgency'”, 12/1, http://www.rand.org/commentary/2009/12/01/NYT.html)

An effort to … applying overwhelming force.

=1ac - Insurgency=


 * Advantage 2: the war**

**Pashtun nationalism and the lack of history with a strong state makes combatting corruption or raising a sustainable security force impossible.** **Dorronsoro, 09** - visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (9/23/09, Gilles, The National Interest, “Afghanization,” http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=22218 ) In addition, **there …** discredited Karzai regime.

**Nationalism means that even if the US won every battle it couldn’t beat the insurgency** **Dorronsoro, 09** - visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (2/9/09, Gilles, The National Interest, “Going South in Afghanistan,” http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=20794 )

Afghanistan may be … foreign forces ever could. =1ac – Insurgency=

**Akhtar, 10-** professor of international relations, and a senior analyst & writer. He was the dean of faculty of management, Baluchistan university, and former chairman of International Relations Department, Karachi university (1/26/10, Shameem, “Pakistan’s Instability : The US War Factor,” http://www.islamonline.net/servlet/Satellite?c=Article_C&cid=1262372328640&pagename=Zone-English-Muslim_Affairs/MAELayout#**1 )
 * Scenario one is Pakistan.**
 * A large counterinsurgency footprint drives insurgents to Pakistan, mobilizes the Pakistani Taliban and will cause Pakistan to collapse**

If it is a war …, thus destabilizing the state.

=1ac – Insurgency=


 * Pakistan collapse causes global nuclear conflict – draws in China, India and Russia**
 * Pitt, 9** - //a New York Times and internationally bestselling author of two books: "War on Iraq: What Team Bush Doesn't Want You to Know" and "The Greatest Sedition Is Silence." (5/8/09, William, “Unstable Pakistan Threatens the World,” // http://www.arabamericannews.com/news/index.php?mod=article&cat=commentary&article=2183 )

||  || But a suicide … should we all.

=1ac – Insurgency=

**Scenario two is Terrorism**
 * Risk of nuclear terrorism is high – probably an attack will come from al Qaeda by 2013 **
 * Hall, 10** (Mimi, USA Today, “ Obama seeks front against nuclear terror”, 4/12, http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2010-04-11-nukesummit_N.htm

WASHINGTON — President … in a terrorist attack" by 2013.

=1ac – Insurgency=


 * Nuclear terrorism causes extinction **
 * Morgan, 9 ** - Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin Campus - South Korea (Dennis, Futures, November, “World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race,” Science Direct)

In a remarkable …, to a life of unimaginable misery and suffering in a nuclear winter.

=1ac – Insurgency=


 * Indicts of the counterterrorism option underestimate the size of what the plan leaves intact – it is sufficiently resourced to provide force protection, intelligence gathering, army training and will maintain the support of the local population ** [J8]
 * Long, 10 ** - assistant professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs (Austin, “ Small is Beautiful: The Counterterrorism Option in Afghanistan,” Orbis, Spring 2010, Science Direct)

This insoluble problem is why the counterterrorism … other counterterrorism deployment.

**Gradual withdrawal while maintaining a counterterrorism strategy allows more effective US leadership in the war on terror and maximizes US credibility** **Chellany, 09** - professor of strategic studies at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi (9/14/09, Brahma, Japan Times, “An Advantagous U.S. Exit,”  http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20090914bc.html )

When the administration's … part of the deep-rooted military-mullah alliance.


 * Withdrawal of combat troops will immediately turn the population against the Taliban and shore up Afghan government legitimacy**
 * Dorronsoro,9 - **Visiting Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (January 2009, Gilles, “Focus and Exit: An Alternative Strategy for the Afghan War,” http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/afghan_war-strategy.pdf )

This three-zone strategy is not, //per …// __Afghanistan’s peripheral regions.__

=1ac – Insurgency=


 * A counterterrorism posture empirically works – it reduces the threat of terrorism and can provide actionable intelligence without undermining US credibility **
 * Long, 10 ** - assistant professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs (Austin, “ Small is Beautiful: The Counterterrorism Option in Afghanistan,” Orbis, Spring 2010, Science Direct)

It will therefore  take about three years … best alternative for the U  nited  S  tates.

= 1ac – Insurgency =


 * A substantial drawdown to a purely counterterrorism presence will maximize US influence in Central Asia and contain instability and terrorism**
 * Simon, and Stevenson, 9** * adjunct Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, AND **Professor of Strategic Studies at the US Naval War College, (Steven and Jonathan, “Afghanistan: How Much is Enough?” Survival, 51:5, 47 – 67, October 2009 http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/section?content=a915362559&fulltext=7132409)

An effort on that scale … the residual problem that it has, in fact, become.