Lance+Kotler+&+Colin+Dike

1AC AIIB

Plan: The United States federal government should substantially increase its diplomatic and economic engagement with the People’s Republic of China over the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank with the purpose of joining the bank.

1ac China Rise Adv

China’s rise is inevitable --- U.S. failure to seek membership in the AIIB sends the signal that it doesn’t want to integrate China into global economic governance and crushes America’s ability to shape the global order Wyne, 15 --- contributing analyst at Wikistrat, and a global fellow with the Project for the Study of the 21st Century (4/7/15, Ali, “The American World Order and China’s New Bank,” [], article downloaded on 5/3/16, JMP) The United States has sensibly declared its intention to rebalance towards the Asia-Pacific AND writ large—than, respectively, excluding China and shunning its efforts.

U.S. concerns over Chinese governance prevents efforts to positively reform the AIIB and facilitate multilateralism and deep cooperation with China Edwards & Qahir, 15 --- *Associate Professor of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University, AND Diplomacy graduate student at Seton Hall (4/6/15, Martin & Katayon, “US should stop blocking China’s AIIB and join allies in new club,” [], article downloaded 4/23/16, JMP) China’s growing economic clout is complicating US efforts to maintain its grip on the world’s AND route for deepening cooperation between the US and the People’s Republic of China.

Engaging on the AIIB is critical --- it’s the focal point for China’s expanded international role and flexible negotiations - cooperation will help resolve Myanmar conflict and spillover to solve all other conflicts Noori, et. al, 15 --- Program Specialist, Middle East & North Africa Programs at United States Institute of Peace (8/24/15, Maral Noori, Daniel Jasper and Jason Tower, “Overcoming Barriers to U.S.-China Cooperation,” [], downloaded on 4/21/16, JMP) In 2011, U.S. president Barack Obama announced plans to "pivot AND . cooperation. Development lending could prove a minimally politically sensitive testing ground.

Two internal links scenarios: First is South China Sea The suspicious atmosphere allows military conflict to erupt at any time --- joining the AIIB allows both sides to manage competition to prevent war Shambaugh, 15 – professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, and a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution (David, “In a fundamental shift, China and the US are now engaged in all-out competition,” South China Morning Post, 6/11/15, [] Red+JMP) The relationship between the United States and China has rightly been described as the most AND a marriage in which divorce is not an option. Divorce means war.

South China Sea conflict goes nuclear Christensen 6/5/15 – Thomas J., Boswell professor of world politics and director of the China and the World Program at Princeton University, is a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, “China's Rising Military: Now for the Hard Part” http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-06-05/china-s-rising-military-now-for-the-hard-part One reason for this is that no consensus exists in East Asia on the territorial AND conditions in which a technologically superior foe attacks crucial targets with conventional weapons.

Second is Multilateralism Independently, China will be forced to turn to aggressive military actions without a bilateral AIIB – plan enhances overall multilateral relations Lipscy, 15 --- Assistant Professor of Political Science and the Thomas Rohlen Center Fellow, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University (5/7/15, Phillip Y., “Who's Afraid of the AIIB; Why the United States Should Support China's Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank,” [], downloaded 4/23/16, JMP) When China first proposed creating the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) in 2013 AND encourage, not discourage, Chinese foreign policy initiatives such as the AIIB.

Multilateralism is an impact filter – increased relations between the great powers deters all conflict Herd 10 (Graeme P., Head of the International Security Programme, Co-Director of the International Training Course in Security Policy, Geneva Centre for Security Policy, “Great Powers: Towards a “cooperative competitive” future world order paradigm?,” in Great Powers and Strategic Stability in the 21st Century, 2010, p. 197-198) Given the absence of immediate hegemonic challengers to the US (or a global strategic AND contributed to the crisis; all will be involved in the solution.24

Failure to recalibrate U.S. economic policy toward diplomatic solutions with China risks miscalculation that triggers great power conflict Wyne, 15 --- contributing analyst at Wikistrat and a global fellow at the Project for the Study of the 21st Century (6/1/15, Ali, “Is America’s Mind-set the Greatest Threat to Its Future?” [], article downloaded 5/3/16, JMP) *Joseph Nye is a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School and one of the most esteemed analysts of world affairs Nye suggests that the greatest threat to U.S. influence may not be AND world order.” Here’s to hoping that the United States heeds that judgment.

Ensuring peaceful rise is necessary to prevent World War 3 --- lack of engagement on AIIB has wrecked U.S. leadership Lehmann, 15 --- Emeritus Professor at IMD, Lausanne (Switzerland), currently Visiting Professor at Hong Kong University and at NIIT University in Neemrana, Rajasthan (India) (4/2/15, Jean-Pierre Lehmann, “China And The US: The AIIB Fiasco &amp; America's Colossal Loss Of Face,” http://www.forbes.com/sites/jplehmann/2015/04/02/china-and-the-us-the-aiib-fiasco-americas-colossal-loss-of-face/print/, article downloaded 6/14/16, JMP) It is very worrying for the world that American policy makers should be capable of making such outrageous errors, scoring own-goals, as the decision to play poker against China over the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and losing so spectacularly and humiliatingly. There is today, I think, little disagreement that the decision to invade Iraq AND us hope the appropriate lessons are learned. Pax Americana is still needed.

1ac Solvency --- Join AIIB

U.S. should engage China to join the AIIB --- allows it to exert net more influence Knight, 15 --- Faculty Director of the SIS Honors Program and Assistant Professor at American University's School of International Service and expert on international political economy (4/3/15, Sarah Cleeland Knight, “The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank – Three Questions for Sarah Cleeland Knight,” [], article downloaded 5/11/16, JMP) A growing number of countries are joining the China-led AND best, working quietly with China, to ensure that it actually does.

The plan will rebalance the relationship with China --- preventing a collision between the rising powers Lee & Fullilove, 5/17/16 --- *President, East Asia Institute (South Korea), AND **Executive Director, Lowy Institute for International Policy (Australia) (Michael, “Crisis in Global Governance: A Conversation with Richard N. Haass and the Council of Councils,” [], article downloaded 5/30/16, JMP) LEE: And at the same time, you know, there is interesting AIIB AND where to hedge is so hard, which does come back to leadership. MABRY: Mmm hmm. Excellent.

U.S. involvement will allow AIIB to safeguard its independence from China, develop higher standards and transparency, reverse perception of containment and boost the credibility of its Asia rebalance Lazarus, 3/2/16 --- MA candidate at The Fletcher School, Tufts University (Leland, “Why the U.S. Should Embrace the AIIB; There are compelling reasons for the U.S. to join China’s new development bank,” [], article downloaded 4/24/16, JMP) China’s new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has been the source of considerable AND improve the AIIB as a member, instead of opposing the bank altogether.

The plan reverses the perception of hostility Marston, 16 --- Southeast Asia analyst at a Washington, D.C., think tank (2/28/16, Hunter, “A Four-Point Plan for Reviving the U.S. Role in Asia,” [], article downloaded 5/3/16, JMP) Downplay the Current Mindset of Rivalry The great challenge of the century for future American leaders will be accounting for China’s AND it will also determine U.S. standing in the world in the Asian century.

U.S. participation in the AIIB ensures that China exercises constructive global leadership --- SQ sends the signal of containment Bergsten, 15 --- director emeritus and senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (3/15/15, Fred, “US should work with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank; Washington should sign up and bless the desire of its friends to join, writes Fred Bergsten,” [], article downloaded 5/2/16, JMP) China’s decision to create a new development bank for Asia is proving a highly divisive AND willingness to exercise constructive global leadership.

1AC – Climate Advantage

The choices made in Asian infrastructure development now will determine the future of global warming – expanding renewable energy markets and building sustainable and climate resilient infrastructure through the AIIB are key to keep warming below 2 degrees Nassiry and Nakhooda 16 – Darius Nassiry, head of the international cooperation department at the Global Green Growth Institute, investment manager with the Norwegian Investment Fund for Developing Countries (Norfund) Center for Global Development, Smita Nakhooda, international finance to support developing countries to respond to climate change, “The AIIB and the investment in action,” 4/13/2016, https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/resource-documents/the_aiib_and_investment_in_action_final_20160413.pdfTK The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (the AIIB or the Bank) is poised AND with major long-term commercial benefits for many members of the AIIB.

And the aff causes a global alt energy movement – spills over and creates a global model that solves climate change Taggart 15 - principal of Sydney, Australia-based Grenatec, a non-profit research organization studying the viability of a Pan-Asian Energy Infrastructure (Stewart Taggart, 3/31/2015, “Can China’s Infrastructure Bank Solve Climate Change?,” http://grenatec.com/can-chinas-infrastructure-bank-solve-climate-change)TK Can China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) fix climate change? Yes. AND to climate change replicable elsewhere. Deals like this don’t occur every day.

And AIIB success will kickstart global finance and lending institutions to increase sustainable development Elgin-Cossart and Hart ’15 - Senior Fellow and Director of China Policy at AND JB­­­ In recent years, China has moved into development finance in a very big way AND banks, and in the process, create a race to the top.

Now is key to prevent 2 degrees increase Harvey ’14 ­- Chelsea Harvey is a science reporter for Business Insider. She is based in New York City (Chelsea Harvey, science reporter, “Here's How Little Time We Have Until Global Warming Is Out Of Control,” September 2014, http://www.businessinsider.com/when-will-climate-change-be-out-of-control-2014-9 ) JB The news is in: humans are totally failing in the global effort to stop AND goal will require dedication, international cooperation and a lot of hard work.

Consensus of global scientists agree – warming is real, anthropogenic and happening now Maibach et al ’14 Distinguished Professor of Communication at George Mason University and Director of the Center for Climate Change Communication at GMU. (Edward Maibach, Teresa Myers, Anthony Leiserowitz, “Climate Scientists need to set the Record Straight: There is a scientific consensus that human caused climate change is happening,” 5/7/14, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full)NH Human-caused climate change is happening and is accelerating AND Americans about the scientific consensus regarding the realities of climate change.

Climate change will be catastrophic and result in human extinction Flournoy Ph.D. 12 – Professor at the University of Ohio, Ph.D. and M.A. from the Univeristy of Texas, Postgraduate Associateship at the University of London, B.A. from Southern Methodist University, Editor of the Online Journal of Space Communications. Citing Dr. Feng Hsu, Senior Engineer and Manager at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center (Don M., Ph.D., SpringerBriefs in Space Development, “Solar Power Satellites,” 2012, Springer)JSL In the Online Journal of Space Communication, Dr. Feng Hsu, a NASA AND our Sun” (Hsu 2010) (Fig. 2.1).

Loopholes and loose regulations in the AIIB now could cause backsliding – only U.S. involvement can correct course and ensure environmentally friendly regulations Elgin-Cossart and Hart ’15 - Senior Fellow and Director of China Policy at VM Unfortunately, the AIIB’s draft environmental and social framework, released last week, does AND as well as the comparative advantage of each institution in undertaking specific projects.

The plan solves – leverages empirically successful US-Chinese cooperation to cut GHG emissions Mauro ’15- senior fellow at Peterson Institute for International Economics (Paolo Mauro, Peterson Institute for International Economics, “Why America Should Join the AIIB,” 6/12/15, https://piie.com/commentary/op-eds/why-america-should-join-aiib)//NH Continuing to maintain that stance would be a mistake. The United States has an AND United States is well placed to play a constructive role in that endeavor.

Plan
====The United States Federal government should negotiate an agreement with the People’s Republic of China to not deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in Northeast Asia if the People’s Republic of China agrees to fully enforce United Nations sanctions against the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.====

North Korea is developing warheads and delivery systems that destabilize the region, escalate every conflict, and risk nuclear miscalc - Allowing development to continue ensures nuclear war
McLennon 6/13 McLennon, Garth. (Hudson Institute, his writing focuses primarily on American foreign policy) "Needle in a Haystack: How North Korea Could Fight a Nuclear War | 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea." 38 North Informed Analysis of North Korea RSS. Sponsored by The U.S.-Korea Institute at SAIS, The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, 13 June 2016. Web. 09 July 2016. . Since its January 6 test of what was claimed to be a hydrogen bomb and AND through scenario-based analysis that is fully cognizant of the above factors.

North Korean prolif risks a Korean war which threatens extinction
Peter Hayes, & Michael Hamel- Green, 2009 (Honorary Professor, Center for International Security Studies & professor in social sciences in the College of Arts at Victoria University Melbourne) The Path Not Taken, The Way Still Open: Denuclearizing The Korean Peninsula And Northeast Asia, Dec. 14, 2009. Retrieved Apr. 24, 2016 from http://apjjf.org/-Peter-Hayes/3267/article.html The consequences of failing to address the proliferation threat posed by the North Korea developments AND threat but a global one that warrants priority consideration from the international community.

North Korean nuclearization causes sales of nuclear materials to terrorist organizations – risks nuclear terror
Maxwell 11 Col. David S. Maxwell, USA, is Chief, Strategic Initiatives Group, US Army Special Operatoins Command; a fellow at the Insititute of Korean-American Studies; sits on the board of advisors for //Small Wars Journal//, and is a member of the faulty at the National War College (Maxwell, David S. “Irregular Warfare on the Korean Peninsula.” Confronting Security Challenges on the Korean Peninsula. Marine University Press; 2011. Print.) DD In addition to the nuclear program, other weapons of mass destruction have been under AND of the regime will overseas contacts as a source of funding and leverage.

Nuclear terror leads to extinction
Myhrvold 14 - chief executive and founder of Intellectual Ventures and a former chief technology AND , and bombings in major cities. Strategic objectives cannot be far behind.

Nuclear development must be halted soon- delay makes it impossible to reverse
Mitchel B. Wallerstein, 12/18/20 15 (deputy U.S. assistant secretary of defense for counterproliferation policy from 1993 to 1997 and the current President of Baruch College), WASHINGTON POST, Ignoring North Korea’s nuclear threat could prove to be a dangerous mistake, Dec. 18, 2015. from https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-price-of-inattention-to-north-korea/2015/12/18/a3eb5308-9d3b-11e5-8728-1af6af208198_story.html?tid=a_inl It is too easy to dismiss as bluster the near-constant stream of threats AND each weapon in the event that they needed to be secured or destroyed.

China not fully enforcing sanctions- North Korea is still importing banned items
Elizabeth Shim, 5/11/ 16 (Journalist focusing on global Asian cultures for United Press International), North Korea keeps importing banned components from China, analyst says UPI http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2016/05/11/North-Korea-keeps-importing-banned-components-from-China-analyst-says/3631462990916/?spt=sec&or=tn North Korea continues to import components from China that could go toward nuclear weapons development AND implementation of international sanctions. Trade appears to be growing despite new bans.

THAAD deployment destroys Chinese support for sanctions enforcement.
Panda 7/8 /16 (Ankit Panda - editor at The Diplomat. He writes on security, politics, economics, and culture. – “It's Official: The United States and South Korea Agree to Deploy THAAD” – 7/8/16 - http://thediplomat.com/2016/07/its-official-the-united-states-and-south-korea-agree-to-deploy-thaad/)/TK Speaking earlier this year, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that the X- AND years, Pyongyang has shown recent signs of trying to improve bilateral ties.

China is key to the success or failure of sanctions
Julian Ryall, 4-13-20 16, "Is North Korea finally close to collapse?," Deutsche Welle, http://www.dw.com/en/is-north-korea-finally-close-to-collapse/a-19183141 If international sanctions are to work, much will depend on China, which has AND member of the International Coalition to Stop Crimes Against Humanity in North Korea.

Effective sanctions block North Korean nuclear and missile development programs
Snyder, 2016 Senior Fellow at Korea Studies [Scott A Snyder, April 2016, National Committee On American Foreign Policy, A U.S.-ROK-China dialogue on North Korea’s Nuclear Stalemate: Update, Review, and Assessment, [], July 10 2016, KC] Experts believe North Korea now has 10 to 20 nuclear weapons and Pyongyang has mastered AND threaten, intimidate, or blackmail its neighbors and adversaries in a crisis.

China says yes - Backing down on THAAD is the only way to get China on board for sanctions against North Korea.
Michael Casey, 2016 (staff writer) NATIONAL INTEREST, Ignore China and Deploy THAAD to South Korea, Apr. 17, 2016. Retrieved Apr. 23, 2016 from http://nationalinterest.org/feature/ignore-china-deploy-thaad-south-korea-15810 The United States has a range of options to respond to the North Korean threat AND retaliate by deploying additional military assets to the East and South China Seas.

New sanctions make it harder for North Korea to build nuclear weapons.
Choe Sang-Hun and Edward Wong 2016 (Pulitzer Prize-winning South Korean journalist, & American journalist and a foreign correspondent for The New York Times) BOSTON GLOBE, Feb. 26, 2016. Retrieved Apr. 23, 2016 from https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/world/2016/02/26/doubts-asia-over-whether-new-sanctions-against-north-korea-can-work/ptfdGOiberUkznz4FI1IxI/story.html Still, the proposed sanctions, especially mandatory inspections of all cargo, would make AND the list of luxury goods countries are banned from selling to the North.

Regime instability in North Korea Risks a Nuclear Catastrophe
Lankov 7/7 Andrei Lankov taught since 2004 at Kookmin University in Seoul, and previously taught Korean history at the Australian National University. His major research interest is North Korean history and society. "The grave nuclear risk of North Korean instability," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 7-7-2016 [] The "Korean question" is a bit like a dormant volcano. Nothing especially AND —a crisis in which nuclear weapons could be very much in play.

THAAD deployment will destroy Sino-SoKo relations
Tiezzi 2/25/ 16 (Shannon Tiezzi - Editor at The Diplomat. Her main focus is on China, and she writes on China’s foreign relations, domestic politics, and economy. Shannon previously served as a research associate at the U.S.-China Policy Foundation, where she hosted the weekly television show China Forum. She received her A.M. from Harvard University and her B.A. from The College of William and Mary. Shannon has also studied at Tsinghua University in Beijing – “China Warns THAAD Deployment Could Destroy South Korea Ties 'in an Instant'” – 2/25/16 - http://thediplomat.com/2016/02/china-warns-thaad-deployment-could-destroy-south-korea-ties-in-an-instant/)/TK China’s ambassador to South Korea recently warned the opposition Minjoo Party of Korea (MPK AND will have a direct impact on China’s national security interests,” Hua added.

Relations key to South Korean trade exports and promoting stability
BBC 14 (BBC Worldwide Monitoring – “Chinese president hopes to inject vitality into ties with South Korea” – 7/4/14 - http://www.lexisnexis.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/hottopics/lnacademic/)/TK "China-South Korea relations are facing an opportunity of great development. To AND, but also a stabilizer to regional and world peace," Xi said.

Exports, especially to China, are key to the South Korean economy
The Economist 15 (The Economist - an English-language weekly newspaper owned by the Economist Group and edited in offices based in London – “Why a big slump in South Korea’s exports matters” – 9/1/15 - http://www.economist.com/news/business-and-finance/21662952-steepest-year-drop-trade-2009-mark-sagging-global-demand-why-big-slump)/TK NEW trade figures from South Korea on September 1st surprised even the gloomiest of economic AND components, which make up the bulk of South Korea’s exports to China.

Strong SoKo econ is key to solving climate change - has the stance to lead the world by promoting green growth
O’Donnell 15 (Jill Kosch O’Donnell – an independent writer with a special interest in energy policy. She holds an M.A. in International Relations and Economics from the Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies – “How Korea Can Lead on Climate Change” – 11/24/15 - http://blogs.cfr.org/asia/2015/11/24/how-korea-can-lead-on-climate-change/)/TK Korea’s approach to climate change falls under a broader set of policies known as “ AND there, and will continue to be long after the diplomats leave Paris.

South Korea’s green leadership can spill over globally
Feffer 15 (John Feffer - director of Foreign Policy In Focus at the Institute for Policy Studies. He is the author of several books and numerous articles. He has been an Open Society Foundation Fellow and a PanTech fellow in Korean Studies at Stanford University. He is a former associate editor of World Policy Journal. He has worked as an international affairs representative in Eastern Europe and East Asia for the American Friends Service Committee – “Can a Green Asia Lead the World?” – 12/9/15 - http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/can-a-green-asia-lead-the-world_us_56684863e4b0cc4a8e5abaf2)/TK South Korean President Park Geun-Hye has made a very public commitment to shrink AND Green in a big way, then there’s hope yet for the world.

Anthropogenic warming causes extinction – IPCC and scientist consensus
Hannam and Snow 14 (Peter Hannam - Environment Editor at The Sydney Morning Herald. He covers broad environmental issues ranging from climate change to renewable energy for Fairfax Media. Deborah Snow - senior writer with The Sydney Morning Herald and a former federal political reporter for the Australian Financial Review – *Article cites IPCC report* – “Climate change could make humans extinct, warns health expert” – 3/31/14 - http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-change-could-make-humans-extinct-warns-health-expert-20140330-35rus.html)/TK The Earth is warming so rapidly that unless humans can arrest the trend, we AND for key sowing stages near or below 35 degrees, the report said.

Warming is a threat multiplier – exacerbates multiple scenarios for conflict
Barron-Lopez 14 (Laura Barron-Lopez – Congressional reporter at the Hill - *Article sights Pentagon report* - “Pentagon: Climate change a national security threat” - 10/13/14 - http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/220575-pentagon-unveils-plan-to-fight-climate-change)/TK The Pentagon is integrating climate change threats into all of its "plans, operations AND the first comprehensive one-stop plan from the Pentagon on the issue.

Paris and current climate strategies aren’t enough – tech development can solve and there is still time to mitigate the effects
Goldenberg 5/11 /16 (Suzanne Goldenberg - the US environment correspondent of the Guardian and is based in Washington DC. She has won several awards for her work - Article cites head of the United Nations climate science panel and leader of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – “UN climate science chief: it's not too late to avoid dangerous temperature rise” – 5/11/16 - https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/11/un-climate-change-hoesung-lee-global-warming-interview)/TK But Lee insisted the 2C goal remained technically feasible, although it could become prohibitively AND be ramped up fast to hold down the costs of the energy transition.

Our frame for climate change alters the paradigm for climate debates, spurring action
Watson 2016 - associate professor at the University of Queensland in Brisbane, president of the Society for Conservation Biology and director of the science and research initiative at the Wildlife Conservation Society James, "Bring climate change back from the future," Nature 534:7608, doi:10.1038/534437a The death of the last individual of the last population of a mammal species, AND harness the fears of the future to address the realities of the present.

Recent SCS ruling puts US-China miscalc on the brink, failure to de-escalate tensions result in US china war
CNN 7/13/ 16 “Has South China Sea ruling set scene for next global conflict?” http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/13/asia/south-china-sea-global-conflict-risks/index.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+cnn%2FCVMu+(CNN+Top+Stories) Risk of miscalculation Ashley Townshend, research fellow at the U.S. Studies AND the verdict and demonstrate that it had no intention of changing its position.

Conflict in SCS goes nuclear
Polina Tikhonova 2015 (is a writer, journalist and a certified translator Master's Degree in English Philology from the University of Oxford and a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism from the Saint Petersburg State University) [] “US Faces Nuclear War Threat Over South China Sea – Chinese Professor” China is willing to start a [|nuclear war] with the United States over the South AND reputation or human lives, for the U.S.,” Baohui wrote.

THAAD kills relations- prevents diplomatic resolution of SCS and NoKo conflict
[Kim Gamel, July 10, 2016, Korean Penninsula Tensions Raise Stakes for Regional Security, Stars and Stripes, [], July 11, 2016 KC] SEOUL, South Korea — Already-high tensions spiked on the Korean Peninsula as AND relations among China, Russia and North Korea are likely to be strengthened.”
 * Gamel, 2016 a Senior Correspondent for Stars and Stripes**

THAAD destroys multilat relations and causes prolif – multilat filters global conflicts
Jing 12 (“Missile Issues in East Asia” The Nonproliferation Review; Zhong Jing is a fellow at the National Defense University, Beijing, China; summer 2012, https://www.nonproliferation.org/wp-content/uploads/npr/92jing.pdf - LK) It is ironic that the nonproliferation regime, whic Imu'til'¶ United States took so AND of U.S. and South¶ Korean relations with North Korea.

Extinction risks are underestimated—trumps everything else
Bostrom 12 - Professor of Philosophy at Oxford (Nick, directs Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute, Interview with Ross Andersen, correspondent at The Atlantic, 3/6, “We're Underestimating the Risk of Human Extinction”, [] Bostrom, who directs Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute, has argued over the course AND eliminating poverty or curing malaria, which would be tremendous under ordinary standards.

High magnitude, low probability scenario planning (like nuclear war) is productive in IR
Timothy Junio 13, cybersecurity postdoctoral fellow at CISAC, PhD in political science from the University of Pennsylvania, and Thomas Mahnken, Naval War College, “Conceiving of Future War: The Promise of Scenario Analysis for International Relations”, September, International Studies Review Volume 15, Issue 3, pages 374–395 This article introduces political scientists to scenarios—future counterfactuals—and demonstrates their value AND . An important starting point is to explain how future counterfactuals fit into the

__ Neg __ 1NC Strats: __T__ T - QPQ/bilateral T - Unconditional T - Categories

__DA__ Russia DA Containment DA THAAD DA Elections DA Appeasement DA Japan DA

__CP__ Video Cameras CP AIIB Multi-Plank CP

__K__ Neolib K

__Case Offense__ Turn - Sanctions incentivize proliferation Turn - Expansion into space causes militarization and space war Turn - Green econ bad

2NR's: Video Cameras CP Elections DA Containment DA Case