Alexandria+Herr%20and%20Jeewon%20Chon

We are reading a South Korea aff with a Korean Conflict advantage and a Regionalism advantage.


 * Plan:**
 * The United States federal government should implement a phased withdrawal of its ground troops in the Republic of Korea.**


 * Advantage 1 is Korean Conflict**

__It has been weeks …__ its own personnel.
 * The sinking of the South Korea’s ship makes conflict inevitable – retaliation will spark an escalatory war and failure to respond will only cause more North Korean provocations.**
 * Bandow, 10** – senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to Reagan (4/18/10, Doug, “Let the Koreans Take Care of the Koreas,” [], JMP)

[], JMP) WASHINGTON - __The chairman of …__ in its dispute with South Korea.
 * More North Korean attacks are coming**
 * VOA News, 10** (5/31/10, “Admiral Mullen: North Korea May Attack Again,”

[], JMP) ANOTHER NUCLEAR TEST? __North Korea, which Kim's …__in a report this week.
 * North Korea’s declining economy makes this inevitable**
 * Reuters, 10** (3/17/10, Jon Herskovitz, “North Korea may turn more menacing but options limited,”

[], JMP) A multinational investigation … 20 sailors aboard was sunk.
 * South Korea __won’t__ back down this time around – ensures escalation**
 * AFP, 6/15** (6/5/09, “S.Korea to re-enact naval battle amid tensions,”

Still, does an American presence … to deter U.S. intervention.
 * U.S. presence actively __facilitates this belligerence__**
 * Bandow, 08** – Fellow at the American Conservative Defense Alliance and former special assistant to Reagan (6/9/2008, Doug, “Ending the U.S.-Korea Alliance,” [], JMP)

[], JMP) __A high-ranking North Korean …__ at staving off punishment for the incident.
 * North Korea will respond by initiating an __all out war__**
 * GSN, 6/4** (6/4/10, Global Security Newswire, “War Possible at Any Time, North Korea Says,”

Suspicions continue to mount that North … America must continue doing so in 2010 is bizarre.
 * Old takeouts don’t apply – North Korea is now willing to risk armed conflict – U.S. presence makes provocations inevitable and guarantees our draw in**
 * Bandow, 10** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (5/3/10, Doug, “Taming Pyongyang,” [], JMP)

Rather than being …. by its alliance commitments.
 * Causes __nuclear attack__ on the U.S.**
 * Layne, 06 –** professor of government at Texas A & M University (Christopher, The Peace of Illusions: American Grand Strategy from 1940 to the Present, p. 169)

Alliance advocates are … necessary to guarantee their own security.
 * And it turns regional conflicts into __global__ ones**
 * Bandow, 05** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (Fall 2005, Doug, National Interest, “Seoul Searching,” vol. 81, EBSCO, JMP)

Proceeding against the advice of my cardiologist…. clock, aligns with the correct result.
 * Withdrawing __ground troops__ solves – stops North Korea from probing U.S. weakness to draw our forces into a wider conflict. Air and naval installations will maintain power projection capabilities.**
 * Stanton, 10** – U.S. Army Judge Advocate in Korea from 98-02 and practicing attorney in Washington, D.C. (4/12/10, Joshua, The New Ledger, “It's Time for the U.S. Army to Leave Korea,” [], JMP)

We see through a glass darkly, … far more than Washington’s problem.
 * A massive power struggle is underway in North Korea – warring factions will facilitate several avenues for conflict**
 * Bandow, 6/9** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (6/9/10, Doug, The Daily Caller, “Confronting North Korea: Who’s in charge?”[], JMP)

[], JMP) President George W. Bush famously … unsettled and dangerous future.
 * Succession politics makes provocations __more likely and dangerous__ and crushes the chance of effective engagement to rollback North Korea’s nuclear program**
 * Bandow, 09** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (7/29/09, Doug, “Kim’s Heir,”

This report examines …**__WMD attacks or incidents.__**
 * Conventional weaknesses will force North Korea to resort to CBW use – either deliberate, accidental or unathorized**
 * ICG, 09** (6/18/09, International Crisis Group, “North Korea’s Chemical and Biological Weapons Programs,” [], JMP)

=Immediately following 9-11… be developed within days.=
 * North Korean bioweapon use would __spread globally__ within __six weeks__ – greater risk that nuclear weapons**
 * Levy, 07** (6-8-07, Janet Ellen, The American Thinking, “The Threat of Bioweapons,” [], JMP

__Of all the weapons of mass destruction…__, then patriotism is the highest of all crimes.
 * Impact is extinction**
 * Ochs 02** – MA in Natural Resource Management from Rutgers University and Naturalist at Grand Teton National Park [Richard, “BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS MUST BE ABOLISHED IMMEDIATELY,” Jun 9, http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html]

The international community is … from the international community.
 * Also, North Korean aggression and nuclearization will cause intentional, miscalculated, or accidental nuclear conflict – even a limited nuclear war causes rapid cooling and ozone disruption, collapses the economy, and spills over to other hot spots**
 * Hayes & Hamel-Green, 10** – *Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development, AND ** Executive Dean of the Faculty of Arts, Education and Human Development act Victoria University (1/5/10, Executive Dean at Victoria, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia,” [])

Two men have ruled the northern … **__most importantly South Korea and China.__**
 * The plan solves by motivating China and South Korea to effectively influence the leadership transition**
 * Bandow, 08** – Fellow at the American Conservative Defense Alliance and former special assistant to Reagan (9/15/08, Doug, “Dear Leader Goes South,” [], JMP)

Second, the United States, … China in the North Korean issue.
 * Chinese involvement is key to stabilize Korea – prevents violent collapse, military response by South Korea, North Korea nuclearization and allied proliferation**
 * Bandow, 10** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (5/3/10, Doug, “Taming Pyongyang,” [], JMP)

On the night of … __brought home before it’s too late.__
 * U.S. presence is useless to deter North Korea – withdrawal will motivate South Korea and China to stabilize and de-nuclearize the peninsula**
 * Erickson, 10** – Executive Director of CenterMovement.org (5/6/10, Stephen, “End the Cold War in Korea: Bring American Troops Home Before it’s Too Late,” [], JMP)

The U.S. alliance with … South Korea as a security client.
 * A phased withdrawal prevents U.S. draw in – regional security efforts can effectively resolve Korea crises**
 * Carpenter, 09** – vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute (Ted Galen, CATO Handbook for Congress, 7th Edition, “54. East Asian Security Commitments,” [], JMP)


 * Advantage 2 is Asian Regionalism**

At the conclusion of the Second World War, the United States established bilateral military alliances in the Asia-Pacific intended to contain Soviet and Chinese communist expansion in the region. …East Asian Union.
 * U.S. alliance relationships are unsustainable – Asian powers should develop a regional security strategy that __does not__ rely on the U.S. – solves WMD terrorism, tame China, prevents Sino-Japan conflict, Japan imperialism, solve resource conflicts and stop major power domination**
 * Francis, 06** – former Australian Ambassador to Croatia and fellow at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University from 05-06 (Fall 2006, Neil, Harvard International Review, “For an East Asian Union: Rethinking Asia's Cold War Alliances,” [], JMP)

The idea of multilateral security cooperation … __loose form of the U.S.-Korea alliance.__
 * Specially, withdrawal will reduce Korea’s veto of multilateral security mechanisms – yielding a peace system on the peninsula that prevents great power war**
 * Lee, 09** – Seoul National University (December 2009, Geun, “The Nexus between Korea’s Regional Security Options and Domestic Politics,” [|www.cfr.org], JMP)

Can the U.S. live with the risk of an … Eagle to head home.
 * Accelerating U.S. withdrawal is key to catalyze a multipolar balance of power in the region and pave the way for an off-shore balancing strategy.**
 * Espiritu, 06** – Commander, U.S. Navy (3/15/06, Commander Emilson M. Espiritu, “The Eagle Heads Home: Rethinking National Security Policy for The Asia-Pacific Region,” [], JMP)

“First Among Equals,” [], JMP) It’s the job of military planners to …. **__will be the transition.__**
 * The plan eases the transition to a more multipolar world – trying to cling to the status quo makes hegemonic decline and conflict with China inevitable**
 * Bandow, 09** – Fellow at the American Conservative Defense Alliance and Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (1/12/09, Doug,

__A stronger **regional security …**__ will exist in the future.
 * Strengthening the East Asian regional security architecture key to solve terrorism, territorial disputes, disease, environmental degradation, and maritime security**
 * Nanto, 08** – Specialist in Industry and Trade Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division for Congressional Research Services (1/4, “East Asian Regional Architecture: New Economic and Security Arrangements and U.S. Policy,” www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33653.pdf)

__MAKING THESE flash-points … or Japan--or the__ __U__nited __S__tates.
 * Territorial disputes draw in great powers --- causes World War 3**
 * Waldron, 97** – professor of strategy and policy at the U.S. Naval War College and an associate of the Fairbank Center for East Asian Research at Harvard (March 1997, Arthur, Commentary, “How Not to Deal with China,” EBSCO)

South Korea’s foreign minister reports that Washington … local dispute into an international crisis.
 * Also, plan prompts South Korean conventional force modernization which allows it to deter Chinese aggression**
 * Bandow, 09** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to Reagan (6/16/09, Doug, “A Tattered Umbrella,” [], JMP)

TAIPEI — It's the stuff of dark sci-fi scenarios; the war that nobody wants…**world's superpower and the rising Asian giant.**
 * Chinese aggression against Taiwan will escalate and go nuclear**
 * Adams, 09** – reporter for global post and newsweek on China and Taiwan (3/31/09, Jonathon, Global Post, “The dragon sharpens its claws,”

(Ching Cheong, The Straits Times, “No one gains in war over Taiwan,” 6-25-2000, Lexis-Nexis Universe) A cross-strait … everything else
 * Extinction**
 * Cheong, 2000** – East Asia Correspondent

The U.S. finds itself in an unenviable situation… __We can help them do so.__
 * Only a commitment to withdrawal troops will motivate South Korea and China to stabilize and denuclearize the peninsula – this avoids accidental conflict with China, preserves larger U.S. deterrence and stops friction with Japan**
 * Garfinkle, 03** – taught American foreign policy and Middle East politics at the University of Pennsylvania and is editor of The National Interest (1/27/03, Adam, National Review, “Checking Kim,” [], JMP)