Haley+and+Will

Afghanistan 1AC The plan: The United States Federal Government should reduce nearly all military presence necessary to pursue counterinsurgency in Afghanistan.

Advantage 1: Hegemony

The war in Afghanistan will collapse American primacy- 3 internal links:

When President Obama...concessions to their deadline.
 * First- credibility. Obama announced a July 2011 withdrawal date, but at most only small numbers will leave and it depends on conditions on the ground.**
 * CBS News 6/24** (Brian Montopoli, 6/24/10, " July 2011 Deadline for Afghanistan Troop Withdrawal: Politics Over Policy? ", [])

**Rubin, 10** – resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute; senior lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School's Center for Civil-Military Relations; and a senior editor of the //Middle East Quarterly//. (Michael, Public Square, 3/8, “The Afghanistan Withdrawal: Why Obama Was Wrong to Insist on a Deadline,” []) It is true...Iran, and even Russia.
 * The July 2011 announcement destroyed the __perception__ of US commitment to Afghanistan **

Second-overstretch **Kretkowski, 10** – Frequently assists think tank in conferences and other work products that aid DoD's long-term thinking about threats that may not be addressable via weapons platforms. Spent six months in Afghanistan working with Army public affairs. (Paul, “Against COIN, for CT in Afghanistan and Elsewhere”, 1/7, Beacon (a blog), []) Over the winter... (China, a reinvigorated Russia).
 * Counterinsurgency doctrine is overstretching the US military and exhausting American leadership – withdrawing to a co u nterterrorism strategy is vital to preventing great power challengers **

**Kuhner, 9** - the president of the Edmund Burke Institute for American Renewal (Jeffrey, Washington Times, “Obama’s quagmire; US should look to its own interests,” 9/7, Lexis Academic) America is losing the war...arms of extremists.
 * Afghanistan is a quagmire of attrition warfare that is destroying US morale and readiness. **

Since we invaded...this past year.
 * This will obliterate American primacy **
 * Pyne, 9 - ** Vice Chair of the Utah State Legislative Compensation Commission and Vice President of the Association of the United States Army's Utah chapter and a Vice President of the Salt Lake Total Force Chapter of the Military Officers Association of America (David, “Obama failing our troops in Afghanistan,” 11/7, [|http://westernfrontamerica.com/2009/11/07/obama-failing-troops-afghanistan] / )

A grand strategy...the economic prosperity it provides.
 * American primacy is vital to accessing every major impact—the only threat to world peace is if we allow it to collapse **
 * Thayer, 6 - **professor of security studies at Missouri State (Bradley, The National Interest, “In Defense of Primacy”, November/December, p. 32-37)


 * Third, the dollar – **

Bounding Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan,” Small Wars Journal, 10/21, http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2009/10/toward-a-kilcullenbiden-plan/ Just do the math...Vice-President Joe Biden.
 * Maintaining a large counterinsurgency strategy will bankrupt the US, end the dollar and collapse global US financial influence **
 * Corn, 9 ** – Ph.D. from the University of Paris and is a graduate of the U.S. Naval War College, currently on leave from the US State Department (Tony, “Toward a Kilcullen-Biden Plan?

Although the spread...cars without gasoline.
 * Economic leadership prevents economic collapse—leadership preserves resilience **
 * Mandelbaum ** **2005** – Professor and Director of the American Foreign Policy Program at Johns Hopkins – 2005 [Michael, The Case for Goliath: How America Acts As the World’s Governmen t  in the Twenty-First Century, p. 192-195]

<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;">At best, an American withdrawal...of nuclear weapons.
 * That goes nuclear without economic leadership **
 * <span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;">Mandelbaum 2005 **<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;"> – Professor and Director of the American Foreign Policy Program at Johns Hopkins – 2005 [Michael, The Case for Goliath: How America Acts As the World’s Government in the Twenty-First Century, p. 224]

<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;">The best Afghan policy...less will be more.
 * The plan solves – reducing to a counterterrorism focus creates sustainable presence, and prevents vacillations between engagement and isolationism **
 * <span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;">Stewart, 9- **<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;">Ryan Family Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (9/16/09, Rory, “The Future of Afghanistan,” [])

<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;">But this moderate...greater focus on Kashmir.
 * Obama will sell the plan as a drawdown to a lighter but permanent commitment to Afghanistan – this resolves confusion over the withdrawal deadline and restores US credibility **
 * <span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;">Stewart, 10 **<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;"> - Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at Harvard, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (Rory, “Afghanistan: What Could Work”, New York Review of Books, 1/14, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2010/jan/14/afghanistan-what-could-work/?page=3)

<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;">An effort to conduct...applying overwhelming force.
 * The plan’s rejection of counterinsurgency creates a doctrinal shift towards selective engagement that can sustain US presence globally **
 * <span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;">Gventer, 9 **<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;"> - Senior Defense Analyst at the RAND Corporation and a former deputy assistant secretary of defense. She served two tours in Iraq, including a year as a senior adviser to General Peter Chiarelli, the operational commander in Iraq in 2006 (Celeste, “False Promise of 'Counterinsurgency'”, 12/1, http://www.rand.org/commentary/2009

Benefits of a CT Focus...and sway those in the middle.
 * Restricting our mission to counterterrorism frees up resources to pay down debt **
 * Kretkowski, 10 ** – Frequently assists think tank in conferences and other work products that aid DoD's long-term thinking about threats that may not be addressable via weapons platforms. Spent six months in Afghanistan working with Army public affairs. (Paul, “Against COIN, for CT in Afghanistan and Elsewhere”, 1/7, Beacon (a blog), [])


 * Advantage 2: the war **

<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;">[]) The counterinsurgency strategy...and its political structures.
 * Counterinsurgency failure inevitable – the mountainous terrain and impossible troop requirements mean the Taliban can hide forever **
 * Stewart, 10 ** - Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at Harvard, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (Rory, “Afghanistan: What Could Work”, New York Review of Books, 1/14,

<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;">Are the basic premises...political force in Afghanistan.
 * A large military footprint combined with the perception of an illegitimate government make crushing the Taliban impossible – it can recruit faster than we can kill **
 * <span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;">Galston 10 - **<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;">Senior Fellow of Governance Studies @ Brookings (William, Senior Fellow of Governance Studies @ Brookings, “A Question of Life and Death: U.S. Policy in Afghanistan,” Brookings, June 15th, [])

In addition...of the discredited Karzai regime.
 * Pashtun nationalism and the lack of history with a strong state makes combatting corruption or raising a sustainable security force impossible. **
 * <span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;">Dorronsoro, 09 **<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;"> - visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (9/23/09, Gilles, The National Interest, “Afghanization,” [])

Aghanistan may be the right war, but...better than any foreign forces ever could.
 * Nationalism means that even if the US won every battle it couldn’t beat the insurgency **
 * <span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;">Dorronsoro, 09 **<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;"> - v <span style="color: black; font-family: 华文宋体; font-size: 10pt;">i <span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;">siting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (2/9/09, Gilles, The National Interest, “Going South in Afghanistan,” [])


 * Multiple impacts - **

If it is a war...thus destabilizing the state.
 * First – Pakistan. A large counterinsurgency footprint drives insurgents to Pakistan, mobilizes the Pakistani Taliban and will cause Pakistan to collapse **
 * <span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;">Akhtar, 10- **<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;">professor of international relations, and a senior analyst & writer. He was the dean of faculty of management, Baluchistan university, and former chairman of International Relations Department, Karachi university (1/26/10, Shameem, “Pakistan’s Instability : The US War Factor,” http://www.islamonline.net/servlet/Satellite?c=Article_C&cid=1262372328640&pagename=Zone-English-Muslim_Affairs/MAELayout#**1)**

Pakistan collapse causes global nuclear conflict – draws in China, India and Russia <span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;">Pitt, 9 **<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;">- a New York Times and internationally bestselling author of two books: "War on Iraq: What Team Bush Doesn't Want You to Know" and "The Greatest Sedition Is Silence." (5/8/09, William, “Unstable Pakistan Threatens the World,” []) **
 * <span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;">But a suicide bomber in Pakistan...So should we all. **

Second – terrorism –

Risk of nuclear terrorism is high – probably an attack will come from al Qaeda by 2013

<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;">Hall, 10 __**<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;"> (Mimi, USA Today, “Obama seeks front against nuclear terror”, 4/12, [|http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/20] **__ 1 <span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;">0 - <span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;">[|__04-11-nukesummit_N.htm__] WASHINGTON- President Obama is asking world leaders...by 2013.

Afghanistan is a vital safe haven for al Qaeda – terrorism is inevitable but nuclear risks can be reduced is the US drives them out Arkedis, 9 ** - director of the National Security Project at the Progressive Policy Institute. He was a counterterrorism analyst with the Naval Criminal Investigative Service from 2002 to 2007 (Jim, “Why Al Qaeda Wants a Safe Haven”, 10/23, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/10/23/got_safe_haven) **
 * I spent five years...the only physical space it can access. **

Nuclear terrorism causes extinction <span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;">Morgan, 9 **<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;"> - Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin Campus - South Korea (Dennis, Futures, November, “World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race,” Science Direct) **
 * In a remarkable websit on nuclear war...suffering in a nuclear winter. **

Gradual withdrawal while maintaining a counterterrorism strategy allows more effective US leadership in the war on terror and maximizes US credibility <span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;">Chellany, 09 **<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;"> - professor of strategic studies at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi (9/14/09, Brahma, Japan Times, “An Advantagous U.S. Exit,” http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20090914bc.html) **
 * When the administration's...military-mullah alliance. **

A substantial drawdown to a purely counterterrorism presence will maximize US influence in Central Asia and contain instability and terrorism Simon, and Stevenson, 9 ** * adjunct Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, AND **Professor of Strategic Studies at the US Naval War College, (Steven and Jonathan, “Afghanistan: How Much is Enough?” Survival, 51:5, 47 – 67, October 2009 http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/section?content=a915362559&fulltext=7132409) An effort on that scale...in fact, become.

I will therefoe take about three years...is the best alternative for the United States.
 * A counterterrorism posture empirically works – it reduces the threat of terrorism and can provide actionable intelligence without undermining US credibility **
 * <span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;">Long, 10 **<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;"> - assistant professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs (Austin, “Small is Beautiful: The Counterterrorism Option in Afghanistan,” Orbis, Spring 2010, Science Direct)

This three-zone strategy is not...Aghanistan's peripheral regions.
 * Withdrawal of combat troops will immediately turn the population against the Taliban and shore up Afghan government legitimacy **
 * <span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;">Dorronsoro,9 - **<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt;">Visiting Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (January 2009, Gilles, “Focus and Exit: An Alternative Strategy for the Afghan War,” http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/afghan_war-strategy.pdf)