Kalen+McCain+(Fedora)+and+Chris+Gilmer-Hill

=__ **Aff Stuff** __=

**North Korea Sanctions 1AC V1**
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China is not enforcing sanctions now- several indicators
RFA: What has been the impact of the increased international trade sanctions against North AND reason to help sort out what they see as essentially an American problem.
 * Radio Free Asia, 7-14-16**, (interview with RFA~’s Executive Editor Dan Southerland, Russian historian and North Korea expert Andrei Lankov) "Interview: Sanctions Against North Korea Aren~’t Working," http://www.rfa.org/english/news/korea/sanctions-07142016162348.html

Plan
====The United States Federal government should negotiate an agreement with the People~’s Republic of China to not deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in Northeast Asia if the People~’s Republic of China agrees to fully enforce United Nations sanctions against the Democratic People~’s Republic of Korea.====

North Korea is developing warheads and delivery systems that destabilize the region: escalates every conflict and risks nuclear miscalc. Allowing development to continue ensures nuclear war.
McLennon, Garth. (Hudson Institute, his writing focuses primarily on American foreign policy) "Needle in a Haystack: How North Korea Could Fight a Nuclear War ~| 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea." 38 North Informed Analysis of North Korea RSS. Sponsored by The U.S.-Korea Institute at SAIS, The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, 13 June 2016. Web. 09 July 2016. . Since its January 6 test of what was claimed to be a hydrogen bomb and AND through scenario-based analysis that is fully cognizant of the above factors.
 * McLennon 6/13**

Nuclear development must be halted soon- delay makes it impossible to reverse
Mitchel B. **Wallerstein,** 12/18/20**15** (deputy U.S. assistant secretary of defense for counterproliferation policy from 1993 to 1997 and the current President of Baruch College), WASHINGTON POST, Ignoring North Korea~’s nuclear threat could prove to be a dangerous mistake, Dec. 18, 2015. from https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-price-of-inattention-to-north-korea/2015/12/18/a3eb5308-9d3b-11e5-8728-1af6af208198_story.html?tid=a_inl It is too easy to dismiss as bluster the near-constant stream of threats coming out of Pyongyang. But while the world looks the other way, North Korea~’s young and isolated leader, Kim Jong Un, is aggressively pursuing four parallel military initiatives: expanding the amount of fissile material (plutonium and highly enriched uranium) the country possesses; producing a longer-range missile capable initially of reaching targets in the Pacific and eventually the continental United States; developing a smaller and lighter nuclear warhead to sit atop a long-range missile; and seeking a survivable, strategic "deterrent" via a small missile-launch submarine or mobile, land-based missile launch system. There is much that we do not know about what goes on inside this highly secretive state, but there is both commercially available satellite imagery and credible deductive analysis to support the conclusion that North Korea is making progress on all four fronts. Unclassified satellite imagery taken this year indicates that North Korea has restarted its plutonium reactor at Yongbyon and an adjoining plant housing centrifuges used to enrich uranium. This has led to speculation that it could be in the process of expanding its nuclear stockpile, estimated to be about six to 10 weapons, to 20 or more by the end of 2016 and possibly to 50 or more by 2020. An arsenal of this size would significantly complicate any diplomatic effort to roll back and eventually eliminate nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula. It would also make it much more difficult to pinpoint the precise location of each weapon in the event that they needed to be secured or destroyed.

China not fully enforcing sanctions- North Korea is still importing banned items
Elizabeth **Shim,** 5/11/**16** (Journalist focusing on global Asian cultures for United Press International), North Korea keeps importing banned components from China, analyst says UPI http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2016/05/11/North-Korea-keeps-importing-banned-components-from-China-analyst-says/3631462990916/?spt=sec%26or=tn North Korea continues to import components from China that could go toward nuclear weapons development, an analyst said Tuesday. David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security told reporters at a Johns Hopkins University seminar that the parts being imported into North Korea from China haven~’t been curtailed, South Korean newspaper Hankook Ilbo reported. Pyongyang is transporting aluminum tubes, vacuum pumps, valves, cylinders of uranium hexafluoride and a variety of materials despite sanctions, according to the analyst. Computer numerical control equipment, or CNC, are being procured from Siemens Taiwan, which reduces costs, Albright said. The analyst also said key products and technologies that could go toward the assembly and operation of a gas centrifuge cannot be manufactured in North Korea, and they must be sourced from abroad. North Korean officials are buying the equipment from intermediary firms in Hong Kong and mainland China. This way, they are able to circumvent embargoes. The brokers purchase equipment in China, including Japan-made products, on behalf of Pyongyang~’s enterprises, and they are then able to transport the goods across the China-North Korea border, Albright said. Customs is easy to get through, although Beijing agreed to implement North Korean sanctions in March at the United Nations Security Council. China has not been as cooperative as it could be with regard to enforcing the law and penalties, Albright said. Other data have raised questions regarding China~’s effective implementation of international sanctions. Trade appears to be growing despite new bans.

THAAD deployment is why there~’s no Chinese sanction enforcement.
Speaking earlier this year, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that the X-band radar capability "goes far beyond the defense need of the Korean peninsula."¶ THAAD is exclusively capable of intercepting missiles in their "terminal" phase, as the platform~’s name suggests. The terminal phase of a missile refers to its descent toward a target.¶ THAAD would not be capable of striking ballistic missiles overflying the Korean peninsula, for example.¶ North Korea will likely sharply protest the U.S.-South Korea alliance~’s deployment of the advanced missile defense system.¶ The U.S.-South Korea joint announcement comes shortly after the United States, for the first time ever, named North Korean leader Kim Jong-un under new sanctions.¶ North Korea~’s official KCNA news agency described the listing of Kim Jong-un under the new U.S. sanctions list as a "hideous crime" and said it would treat the move as a "declaration of war."¶ The THAAD deployment decision could also inflame tensions between the United States and China in East Asia.¶ After North Korea~’s latest nuclear test in January 2016, China acquiesced to new and unusually harsh sanctions at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) against North Korea, under the requirements of UNSC resolution 2270.¶ The decision to go ahead with a THAAD deployment on the Korean peninsula could cause Beijing to defy Washington on continued cooperation against the Kim regime, including possibly the implementation of existing sanctions.¶ Though the historically close relationship between North Korea and China has been adrift in recent years, Pyongyang has shown recent signs of trying to improve bilateral ties.
 * Panda 7/8**/16 (Ankit Panda - editor at The Diplomat. He writes on security, politics, economics, and culture. – "It~’s Official: The United States and South Korea Agree to Deploy THAAD" – 7/8/16 - http://thediplomat.com/2016/07/its-official-the-united-states-and-south-korea-agree-to-deploy-thaad/)/TK

China is key to the success or failure of sanctions
Julian **Ryall,** 4-13-20**16**, "Is North Korea finally close to collapse?," Deutsche Welle, http://www.dw.com/en/is-north-korea-finally-close-to-collapse/a-19183141 If international sanctions are to work, much will depend on China, which has traditionally been North Korea~’s closest ally and has in the past been less-than-rigorous in ensuring that its borders are closed to items that have been banned by previous UN sanctions resolutions. The signs this time, however, are encouraging. Earlier this month, Beijing indicated its own growing displeasure with Kim Jong-un~’s continued defiance of international efforts to convince him to halt nuclear and missile tests by announcing that it would ban all imports of coal, iron, iron ore, gold, titanium and rare earth minerals. Those lucrative exports account for the bulk of North Korea~’s overseas earnings, and losing them will put a sizeable dent in Pyongyang~’s income. At the same time, China announced that it would halt exports of oil into the North, which will quickly limit the military~’s ability to operate. "Everything depends on China and, to a certain extent Russia, but I do believe we are seeing the start of a crisis for the North Korean state," said Ken Kato, director of Human Rights in Asia, and a member of the International Coalition to Stop Crimes Against Humanity in North Korea.

Effective sanctions block North Korean nuclear and missile development programs.
[Scott A Snyder, April 2016, National Committee On American Foreign Policy, A U.S.-ROK-China dialogue on North Korea~’s Nuclear Stalemate: Update, Review, and Assessment, https://www.ncafp.org/2016/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/NCAFP_US-China-ROK-Trilateral-Report_April-2016.pdf, July 10 2016, KC] Experts believe North Korea now has 10 to 20 nuclear weapons and Pyongyang has mastered warhead miniaturization—AND Korea~’s development of a deliverable nuclear weapon would also increase the likelihood that it would threaten, intimidate, or blackmail its neighbors and adversaries in a crisis.
 * Snyder, 2016** Senior Fellow at Korea Studies

THAAD deployment will destroy China-South Korea relations
China~’s ambassador to South Korea recently warned the opposition Minjoo Party of Korea (MPK AND will have a direct impact on China~’s national security interests," Hua added.
 * Tiezzi** 2/25/**16 (Shannon Tiezzi - Editor at The Diplomat. Her main focus is on China, and she writes on China~’s foreign relations, domestic politics, and economy. Shannon previously served as a research associate at the U.S.-China Policy Foundation, where she hosted the weekly television show China Forum. She received her A.M. from Harvard University and her B.A. from The College of William and Mary. Shannon has also studied at Tsinghua University in Beijing – "China Warns THAAD Deployment Could Destroy South Korea Ties ~’in an Instant~’" – 2/25/16 - http://thediplomat.com/2016/02/china-warns-thaad-deployment-could-destroy-south-korea-ties-in-an-instant/)/TK**

China-South Korea Relations key to South Korean trade exports and regional stability
"China-South Korea relations are facing an opportunity of great development. To AND, but also a stabilizer to regional and world peace," Xi said.
 * BBC 14 (BBC Worldwide Monitoring – "Chinese president hopes to inject vitality into ties with South Korea" – 7/4/14 - http://www.lexisnexis.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/hottopics/lnacademic/)/TK**

Exports, especially to China, are key to the South Korean economy
NEW trade figures from South Korea on September 1st surprised even the gloomiest of economic forecasters. The country~’s exports shrank by the largest annual amount in six years, AND increased, so too would demand for intermediate goods, such as electronic components, which make up the bulk of South Korea~’s exports to China.
 * The Economist 15 (The Economist - an English-language weekly newspaper owned by the Economist Group and edited in offices based in London – "Why a big slump in South Korea~’s exports matters" – 9/1/15 - http://www.economist.com/news/business-and-finance/21662952-steepest-year-drop-trade-2009-mark-sagging-global-demand-why-big-slump)/TK**

As long as South Korea~’s economy remains strong, it~’s key to solving climate change - has the stance to lead the world by promoting green growth
Korea~’s approach to climate change falls under a broader set of policies known as " AND there, and will continue to be long after the diplomats leave Paris.
 * O~’Donnell 15** (Jill Kosch O~’Donnell – an independent writer with a special interest in energy policy. She holds an M.A. in International Relations and Economics from the Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies – "How Korea Can Lead on Climate Change" – 11/24/15 - http://blogs.cfr.org/asia/2015/11/24/how-korea-can-lead-on-climate-change/)/TK

South Korea is prepared and wants to lead the process
South Korea formally proposed that it will cut its emissions to 37 percent below business as usual by 2030. This target reflects a much stronger target than they were floating domestically. AND Each of these steps earned them praise as a global climate leader.
 * Schmidt 15** (Jake Schmidt - directs National Resources Defense Council~’s International program with a team of experts and partners working on climate change, clean energy, biogems, and sustainable development in India, Latin America, Canada, and at the international level. Schmidt holds a bachelor~’s degree in economics from Muhlenberg College and a M.P.P. in environmental policy, with a certificate in ecological economics from the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland – "South Korea Announces Climate Target in Advance of Paris Climate Agreement" – 6/30/15 - https://www.nrdc.org/experts/jake-schmidt/south-korea-announces-climate-target-advance-paris-climate-agreement)/TK

Anthropogenic warming causes structural violence and extinction – IPCC and scientist consensus
The Earth is warming so rapidly that unless humans can arrest the trend, we AND for key sowing stages near or below 35 degrees, the report said.
 * Hannam and Snow 14 (Peter Hannam - Environment Editor at The Sydney Morning Herald. He covers broad environmental issues ranging from climate change to renewable energy for Fairfax Media. Deborah Snow - senior writer with The Sydney Morning Herald and a former federal political reporter for the Australian Financial Review – *Article cites IPCC report* – "Climate change could make humans extinct, warns health expert" – 3/31/14 - http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-change-could-make-humans-extinct-warns-health-expert-20140330-35rus.html)/TK**

US-China miscalc on the brink now: failure to de-escalate tensions result in US china war
CNN 7/13/16 "Has South China Sea ruling set scene for next global conflict?" http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/13/asia/south-china-sea-global-conflict-risks/index.html?utm_source=feedburner%26utm_medium=email%26utm_campaign=Feed%3A+cnn%2FCVMu+(CNN+Top+Stories) Risk of miscalculation Ashley Townshend, research fellow at the U.S. Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, AND but it would now be under domestic pressure to register its defiance of the verdict and demonstrate that it had no intention of changing its position.

THAAD kills relations- prevents diplomatic resolution of SCS disputes.
Gamel, 2016 a Senior Correspondent for Stars and Stripes [Kim Gamel, July 10, 2016, Korean Penninsula Tensions Raise Stakes for Regional Security, Stars and Stripes, http://www.stripes.com/news/korean-peninsula-tensions-raise-stakes-for-regional-security-1.418405?utm_source=Sailthru%26utm_medium=email%26utm_campaign=Defense%20EBB%2007-11-16%26utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief, July 11, 2016 KC] SEOUL, South Korea — Already-high tensions spiked on the Korean Peninsula as AND relations among China, Russia and North Korea are likely to be strengthened."

THAAD risks a US nuclear first-strike
PressTV, Iran news and documentary network. "US planning nuclear first strike on Russia or China. PressTV: April 10 2016  CGH ¶ An American anti-war activist and journalist says that the THAAD missile deployment AND called missile defense system would be used to pick of that retaliatory strike."
 * PressTV 16**

Conflict in SCS goes nuclear
Polina **Tikhonova 2015** (is a writer, journalist and a certified translator Master~’s Degree in English Philology from the University of Oxford and a Bachelor~’s Degree in Journalism from the Saint Petersburg State University) http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/11/us-nuclear-war-south-china-sea/ "US Faces Nuclear War Threat Over South China Sea – Chinese Professor" China is willing to start a nuclear war with the United States over the South AND reputation or human lives, for the U.S.," Baohui wrote.

China says yes – the disarmament of the entire Korean peninsula and prevention of regional conflict is their number one priority.
Clearly, North Korean provocations and its growing threats to the region are detrimental to Chinese interests. AND particularly the United States, would assert themselves on the peninsula in the event of a power vacuum.66
 * Yuan 15** Associate Professor Yuan specializes in Asia-Pacific security, Chinese defence and foreign policy, and global and regional arms control and non-proliferation issues (Yuan, Jingdong. "Conflict and Cooperation in Sino-US Relations." 2015. Print) DD

China hates THAAD- derails denuclearization
Ed **Adamczyk** 7/8/**16** Ed Adamcyzk is a journalist for the United Press International.http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2016/07/08/Russia-warns-of-dangerous-consequences-of-decision-to-deploy-anti-missile-system-in-S-Korea/7111467985138/ Russia voiced strong objections Friday to the U.S. agreement with South Korea AND signed deals with the United States to purchase the THAAD air defense system.

Sanctions key to solve Korea, but dialogue is necessary
The launch of the three-stage rocket, the second since December 2012, AND removal of a useful buffer between it and America~’s ally in the south.
 * Economist 16** (No Listed Author, Writer for The Economist, "Only China can stop North Korea from becoming a full nuclear power" Feb. 8^^th^^ 2016, http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21690199-china-north-korea-nuclear-power-missile-test)

Plan solves Sino-Japan conflicts: focus on containment risks war, only increased U.S. strategic engagement with China solves

 * Lehmann 2015 -** Emeritus Professor at IMD Business School in Switzerland, contributor to Forbes, currently Visiting Professor at Hong Kong University and at NIIT University

Jean-Pierre, "China, Japan And The US — A Complex Combustible Triangle," Apr 4, http://www.forbes.com/sites/jplehmann/2015/04/05/china-japan-and-the-us-a-complex-combustible-triangle/%235987d7e01a53 With the turn of the century circumstances changed dramatically. In the early 1990s the AND as if Taro Aso is in a position to fill his grandfather~’s shoes.

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=__**Neg stuff**__=

__**Past 2NRs**__
__**previous 1NC offense**__
 * - Elections and Case**
 * - Rising Expectations DA and Precision Airstrike CP (vs. North Korea Sanctions aff)**
 * - T: QPQ (vs. Market Econ Status)**
 * - analytic "European Space Agency" should do the plan CP and elections (vs. ISS aff)**
 * - cap K**
 * - rising expectations DA**
 * - Elections DA**
 * - Japan DA**
 * - Precision Airstrikes on North Korea Adv CP**
 * - containment DA**
 * - T QPQ**
 * - Europe Space Agency analytic CP**
 * - Russia Alliance DA**
 * - THAAD good (v. NK sanctions aff)**