Josh+and+Nathaniel


 * Plan: The United States federal government should implement a phased withdrawal of its ground troops in the Republic of Korea.**


 * Advantage 1 is Korean War**

Suspicions continue to mount that North Korea...To argue that America must continue doing so in 2010 is bizarre.
 * U.S. presence makes North Korean provocations inevitable and guarantees our draw in****
 * Bandow, 10** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (5/3/10, Doug, “Taming Pyongyang,” [], JMP)

Managing Escalation But no one, ... the situation escalates much further.
 * Even if a conflict won’t start __intentionally__, current high tensions risk __accidents__ that __escalate__ to global nuclear war**
 * Stratfor****, 10** (5/26/10, “North Korea, South Korea: The Military Balance on the Peninsula,” [], JMP)

The sinking of the Cheonan...premature pessimism is not advisable.
 * The status quo is fundamentally different – nuclear use is now likely and deterrence won’t solve**
 * Chung****, 10** – Visiting Professor at the School of International Relations, Nanyang Technological University and former Professor of international relations at Seoul National University (6/1/10, Chung Chong Wook, “The Korean Crisis: Going Beyond the Cheonan Incident,” http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/Perspective/RSIS0352010.pdf)

The Korean War began 60 years ago...It is time to end the Korean War, not start it anew.
 * Reinforcing deterrence just makes __miscalculation__ more likely**
 * Armstrong****, 10 –** Professor of history and director of the Center for Korean Research at Columbia University (Charles, 5/26/10, CNN, “The Korean War never ended” [])


 * North Korea might decide that it has nothing to lose in the status quo – making more miscalculations likely**

It is __the lack of obvious motive__...never quite reached this danger point.
 * Righter, 10** – Worked for the Far Eastern Economic Review and Newsweek in Asia, as development and diplomatic correspondent of The Sunday Times. (Rosemary, 5/25/10, Times Online, “It’s risky, but this time North Korea must pay” [])

The international community is...consideration from the international community.
 * Also, North Korean aggression will cause nuclear conflict – even a limited nuclear war causes rapid cooling and ozone disruption and spills over to other hot spots**
 * Hayes & Hamel-Green, 10** – *Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development, AND ** Executive Dean of the Faculty of Arts, Education and Human Development act Victoria University (1/5/10, Executive Dean at Victoria, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia,” [])

Once again, as a result this time...to home than you might think.
 * Even a small war between the two countries would kill the US economy**
 * Detroitbuisnessbureau.com 10** (5/24/10 Mike Davis is the author. Blog. http://www.thedetroitbureau.com/2010/05/how-a-new-korean-war-would-affect-u-s-business/)

Could the current economic...However sometimes history repeats itself.
 * The impact is nuclear war**
 * O’Donnell, 09** (2/26/09, Sean, “Will this recession lead to World War III?” [], JMP)

This report examines...**__unauthorised WMD attacks__** **__or incidents.__**
 * Conventional weaknesses will force North Korea to resort to CBW use – either deliberate, accidental or unauthorized**
 * ICG, 09** (6/18/09, International Crisis Group, “North Korea’s Chemical and Biological Weapons Programs,” [], JMP)


 * North Korean bioweapon use would __spread globally__ within __six weeks__ – greater risk than nuclear weapons**
 * Levy, 07** (6-8-07, Janet Ellen, The American Thinking, “The Threat of Bioweapons,” [], JMP)
 * __Immediately following 9-11__**...can be developed within days.

__Of all the weapons__...highest of all crimes.
 * Impact is extinction**
 * Ochs 02** – MA in Natural Resource Management from Rutgers University and Naturalist at Grand Teton National Park [Richard, “BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS MUST BE ABOLISHED IMMEDIATELY,” Jun 9, http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html]

Proceeding against the...aligns with the correct result.
 * Withdrawing __ground troops__ solves – stops North Korea from probing U.S. weakness to draw our forces into a wider conflict. Air and naval installations will maintain power projection capabilities.**
 * Stanton, 10** – U.S. Army Judge Advocate in Korea from 98-02 and practicing attorney in Washington, D.C. (4/12/10, Joshua, The New Ledger, “It's Time for the U.S. Army to Leave Korea,” [], JMP)

On the night of March 26...before it's too late.
 * U.S. presence is useless to deter North Korea – withdrawal will motivate South Korea and China to stabilize and de-nuclearize the peninsula**
 * Erickson, 10** – Executive Director of CenterMovement.org (5/6/10, Stephen, “End the Cold War in Korea: Bring American Troops Home Before it’s Too Late,” [], JMP)

The vortex of Korean politics...bring home its troops.
 * Withdrawal will spur peaceful negotiations and inter-Korean peace**
 * Feffer****, 04** – contributor to Foreign Policy In Focus and the author of //North Korea, South Korea: U.S. Policy at a Time of Crisis// (6/23/04, John, “Bring Our Troops Home (from Korea),” [], JMP)


 * Advantage 2 is Regionalism**

At the conclusion of the Second...independent East Asian Union.
 * U.S. alliance relationships are unsustainable – Asian powers should develop a regional security strategy that __does not__ rely on the U.S. – solves WMD terrorism, tame China, prevents Sino-Japan conflict and stops major power domination**
 * Francis, 06** – former Australian Ambassador to Croatia and fellow at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University from 05-06 (Fall 2006, Neil, Harvard International Review, “For an East Asian Union: Rethinking Asia's Cold War Alliances,” [], JMP)

**Regionalism is currently halfhearted – only a __clear sign__ of U.S. withdrawal can motivate __sustainable__ regional security cooperation** **Carpenter and Bandow 4 - *** Vice President of Defense and Foreign Studies at the Cato Institute, AND ** Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute **(**Ted Galen Carpenter, 12/2004, The Korean Conundrum: America’s Troubled Relations With North and South Korea, pg 160-161)DR __The security treaties with the__...**central and west-central Pacific.**

Korea’s Option of Multilateral Security Cooperation...the U.S.-Korea alliance.
 * Specially, withdrawal will reduce Korea’s veto of multilateral security mechanisms – yielding a peace system on the peninsula that prevents great power war**
 * Lee, 09** – Seoul National University (December 2009, Geun, “The Nexus between Korea’s Regional Security Options and Domestic Politics,” [|www.cfr.org], JMP)

Can the U.S. live with the risk...the Eagle to head home.
 * Accelerating U.S. withdrawal is key to catalyze a multipolar balance of power in the region and pave the way for an off-shore balancing strategy.**
 * Espiritu, 06** – Commander, U.S. Navy (3/15/06, Commander Emilson M. Espiritu, “The Eagle Heads Home: Rethinking National Security Policy for The Asia-Pacific Region,” [], JMP)

__A stronger **regional security organization**__...exist or will exist in the future.
 * Strengthening the East Asian regional security architecture key to solve terrorism, territorial disputes, disease, environmental degradation, and proliferation**
 * Nanto, 08** – Specialist in Industry and Trade Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division for Congressional Research Services (1/4, “East Asian Regional Architecture: New Economic and Security Arrangements and U.S. Policy,” www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33653.pdf)

Victor A **Utgoff** **2002** (Deputy Director of the Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division of the Institute for Defense Analysis) Survival Vol 44 No 2 Proliferation, Missile Defence and American Ambitions, p. 87-90 In sum, widespread proliferation...cities or even whole nations.
 * Prolif cause nuclear war**

MAKING THESE flash-points...or Japan--or the United States.
 * Territorial disputes cause World War 3**
 * Waldron, 97** – professor of strategy and policy at the U.S. Naval War College and an associate of the Fairbank Center for East Asian Research at Harvard (March 1997, Arthur, Commentary, “How Not to Deal with China,” EBSCO)

But we biologists know...greatest dying of them all.
 * Bio-D loss causes extinction**
 * Coyne and Hoekstra ‘7** (Jerry, Prof. Ecology @ U. Chicago, and Hopi, Associate Prof. Organismic and Evolutionary Biology @ Harvard, Weekend Australian, “Diversity lost as we head towards a lonely planet”, 11-10, L/N)

Steinbruner 98 – Senior Fellow at Brookings Institution [John D., “Biological weapons: A plague upon all houses,” Foreign Policy, Dec 22, LN] It is a considerable comfort...problem for the species as a whole.
 * Infections disease cause extinction**