Sean+and%20Chuong

=Plan Text=

The United States federal government should substantially reduce military presence assigned to the counterinsurgency mission in Afghanistan in order to pursue counterterrorism.

=Cred I/L=


 * Advantage one is hegemony **


 * The war in Afghanistan will collapse American primacy – 3 internal links: **


 * First – credibility. Obama announced a July 2011 withdrawal date, but at most only small numbers will leave and it depends on conditions on the ground. **
 * CBS News 6/24 ** (Brian Montopoli, 6/24/10, " July 2011 Deadline for Afghanistan Troop Withdrawal: Politics Over Policy? ", [] )

When President __ Obama announced __ late … some concessions to their deadline.

** The July 2011 announcement destroyed the … of US commitment to Afghanistan  **
 * Rubin, 10 ** – resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute ; senior lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School's Center for Civil-Military Relations; and a senior editor of the // Middle East Quarterly //. (Michael, Public Square, 3/8, “The Afghanistan Withdrawal: Why Obama Was Wrong to Insist on a Deadline ,” http://www.michaelrubin.org/7033/afghanistan-withdrawal-deadline )

It is true, as Schlesinger … 8 Pakistan, Iran, and even Russia. Last December President Obama told … __ Afghanistan to the Afghan people. __ =Overstretch I/L=
 * Whether we win the war or not doesn’t matter – not leaving nation-building to the Afghan people destroys credibility and destabilizes Pakistan. **
 * Bandow 7/20 ** (Doug, senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to Reagan, 7/20/10, “Why Are We in Afghanistan?” http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11995)


 * Second –overstretch **

Over the winter break I … a rising power ( China, a reinvigorated Russia   ).
 * Counterinsurgency doctrine is overstretching the US military and exhausting American leadership – withdrawing to a counterterrorism strategy is vital to preventing great power challengers **
 * Kretkowski, 10 ** – Frequently assists think tank in conferences and other work products that aid DoD's long-term thinking about threats that may not be addressable via weapons platforms. Spent six months in Afghanistan working with Army public affairs. (Paul, “Against COIN, for CT in Afghanistan and Elsewhere”, 1/7, Beacon (a blog), http://softpowerbeacon.blogspot.com/2010/01/against-coin-for-ct-in-afghanistan-and.html)

** Kuhner, 9 -  ** the president of the Edmund Burke Institute for American Renewal (Jeffrey, Washington Times, “Obama’s quagmire; US should look to its own interests,” 9/7, Lexis Academic) __ America is losing the war … __ evil, welcoming __ arms of extremists. __
 * Afghanistan is a quagmire of attrition warfare that is destroying US morale and readiness. **

Since we invaded Iraq six … US-ally Georgia  this past year.
 * This will obliterate American primacy **
 * Pyne, 9 - ** Vice Chair of the Utah State Legislative Compensation Commission and Vice President of the Association of the United States Army's Utah chapter and a Vice President of the Salt Lake Total Force Chapter of the Military Officers Association of America (David, “  Obama failing our troops in Afghanistan,” 11/7, http://westernfrontamerica.com/2009/11/07/obama-failing-troops-afghanistan/)

U.S.withdrawal would leave behind a power vacuum, spurring terrorism, economic turmoil, disease and multiple nuclear wars. Niall Ferguson, July/August 2004 “A World Without Power,” FOREIGN POLICY Issue 143 So what is left? Waning … such a not-so-new world disorder.

=Econ I/L=


 * Third, the dollar – **

Bounding Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan,” Small Wars Journal, 10/21, http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2009/10/toward-a-kilcullenbiden-plan/ Just do the math - __with 63,000 …__ by Vice-President Joe Biden.
 * Maintaining a large counterinsurgency strategy will bankrupt the US, end the dollar and collapse global US financial influence **
 * Corn, 9 ** – Ph.D. from the University of Paris and is a graduate of the U.S. Naval War College, currently on leave from the US State Department (Tony, “ Toward a Kilcullen-Biden Plan?

Although the spread of nuclear … __a fleet of cars without gasoline.__
 * Economic leadership prevents economic collapse—leadership preserves resilience **
 * Mandelbaum ** ** 2005 ** – Professor and Director of the American Foreign Policy Program at Johns Hopkins – 2005 [Michael, The Case for Goliath: How America Acts As the World’s Government in the Twenty-First Century, p. 192-195]


 * That goes nuclear without economic leadership **
 * Mandelbaum 2005 ** – Professor and Director of the American Foreign Policy Program at Johns Hopkins – 2005 [Michael, The Case for Goliath: How America Acts As the World’s Government in the Twenty-First Century, p. 224]

At best, an American withdrawal … __ large numbers, of nuclear weapons __.

Of course we are entering a … as their own capacities rise. 
 * Even if multipolarity is inevitable – US hegemony still key – US must remain the at the top to shape the new international system favorably – we still access our impacts **
 * Kaplan **0** 8 ** Senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security (George, “A Gentler Hegemony”, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/16/AR2008121602480.html)

Even if heg isn’t good – maintaining flexibility to adapt is key to solve violent transtion Richard Haas (president of the Council on Foreign Relations, former director of policy planning for the Department of State, former vice president and director of foreign policy studies at the Brookings Institution, the Sol M. Linowitz visiting professor of international studies at Hamilton College, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a lecturer in public policy at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, and a research associate at the International Institute for Strategic Studies) April 20** 08 ** “Ask the Expert: What Comes After Unipolarity?” http://www.cfr.org/publication/16063/ask_the_expert.html Given that the global population … which will stem from globalization. Multipolarity incentivizes great power conflict – only unipolarity can solve –its based in more scientifically validated methods William Wohlforth (professor of government at Dartmouth College) 2009 “ Unipolarity, Status Competition, and Great Power War”Project Muse upshot is a near scholarly consensus … tend to be zero sum  .9 =INSURGENCY=


 * Advantage 2: Insurgency **

Q1: General McChrystal is expected … any “all-in” approach would entail. Galston 10 - Senior Fellow of Governance Studies @ Brookings (William, Senior Fellow of Governance Studies @ Brookings, “A Question of Life and Death: U.S. Policy in Afghanistan,” Brookings, June 15th, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2010/0615_afghanistan_galston.aspx)
 * Counterinsurgency is impossible in Afghanistan, multiple reasons **
 * Nelson, 9 ** – former director of a Joint Task Force in support of Operation Enduring Freedom, retired naval officer with assignments at the National Counterterrorism Center and National Security Council, and Senior Fellow at the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (Rick, “The Other Side of the COIN”, 10/1, http://csis.org/publication/other-side-coin )
 * A large military footprint combined with the perception of an illegitimate government make crushing the Taliban impossible – it can recruit faster than we can kill **

__Are the basic premises of … and political force in Afghanistan. __

** Pashtun nationalism and the lack of history with a strong state makes combatting corruption or raising a sustainable security force impossible. ** ** Dorronsoro, 09 ** - visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (9/23/09, Gilles, The National Interest, “Afghanization,”  http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=22218 ) In addition, ** there is no … **of the discredited Karzai regime. ** Nationalism means that even if the US won every battle it couldn’t beat the insurgency ** ** Dorronsoro, 09 ** - visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (2/9/09, Gilles, The National Interest, “Going South in Afghanistan,” http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=20794 ) Afghanistan may be the right … any foreign forces ever could.

=Pakistan Mpx=

** Akhtar, 10- ** professor of international relations, … __ moment, thus destabilizing the state. __
 * Large counterinsurgency footprint drives insurgents to Pakistan, mobilizes the Pakistani Taliban and will cause Pakistan to collapse **

 ||  || ||  ||  But a suicide bomber in Pakistan … situation. So should we all. =Terrorism Mpx=
 * Pakistan collapse causes global nuclear conflict – draws in China, India and Russia **
 * Pitt, 9 ** - //a New York Times and internationally bestselling author of two books: "War on Iraq: What Team Bush Doesn't Want You to Know" and "The Greatest Sedition Is Silence." (5/8/09, William, “Unstable Pakistan Threatens the World,” // http://www.arabamericannews.com/news/index.php?mod=article&cat=commentary&article=2183 )

** Second – terrorism – ** WASHINGTON — President Obama is asking … used in a terrorist attack" by 2013  .
 * Risk of nuclear terrorism is high – probably an attack will come from al Qaeda by 2013 **
 * Hall, 10 ** (Mimi, USA Today, “ Obama seeks front against nuclear terror”, 4/12, http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2010-04-11-nukesummit_N.htm

I spent five years as a … physical space it can access  . 
 * Afghanistan is a vital safe haven for al Qaeda – terrorism is inevitable but nuclear risks can be reduced is the US drives them out **
 * Arkedis, 9 ** - director of the National Security Project at the Progressive Policy Institute. He was a counterterrorism analyst with the Naval Criminal Investigative Service from 2002 to 2007 (Jim, “Why Al Qaeda Wants a Safe Haven”, 10/23, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/10/23/got_safe_haven)

In a remarkable website on nuclear … and suffering in a nuclear winter.
 * Nuclear terrorism causes extinction **
 * Morgan, 9 ** - Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin Campus - South Korea (Dennis, Futures, November, “World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race,” Science Direct)
 * Withdrawal of combat troops will immediately turn the population against the Taliban and shore up Afghan government legitimacy **
 * Dorronsoro,9 - **Visiting Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (January 2009, Gilles, “ Focus and Exit: An Alternative Strategy for the Afghan War,” [])

This three-zone strategy is … __ independence of Afghanistan’s peripheral regions. __ =SOLVENCY=

Contention three is Solvency:


 * The plan solves – reducing to a counterterrorism focus creates sustainable presence, and prevents vacillations between engagement and isolationism **
 * Stewart, 9- ** Ryan Family Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (9/16/09, Rory, “The Future of Afghanistan,”  http://www.hks.harvard.edu/news-events/news/testimonies/rory-stewart-on-afghanistan )

__ The best Afghan policy would … __ -term, less will be more.

But this moderate tone gains … a much greater focus on Kashmir .1 An effort to conduct "counterinsurgency" … capable of applying overwhelming force. Pulling the bulk of U.S. … sway those in the middle. 
 * Obama will sell the plan as a drawdown to a lighter but permanent commitment to Afghanistan – this resolves confusion over the withdrawal deadline and restores US credibility **
 * Stewart, 10 ** -  Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at Harvard, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (Rory, “   Afghanistan: What Could Work”, New York Review of Books, 1/14,  http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2010/jan/14/afghanistan-what-could-work/?page=3)
 * The plan’s rejection of counterinsurgency creates a doctrinal shift towards selective engagement that can sustain US presence globally  **
 * Gventer, 9 ** - Senior Defense Analyst at the RAND Corporation and a former deputy assistant secretary of defense. She served two tours in Iraq, including a year as a senior adviser to General Peter Chiarelli, the operational commander in Iraq in 2006 (Celeste, “False Promise of 'Counterinsurgency'”, 12/1, http://www.rand.org/commentary/2009/12/01/NYT.html)
 * Restricting our mission to counterterrorism frees up resources to pay down debt **
 * Kretkowski, 10 ** – Frequently assists think tank in conferences and other work products that aid DoD's long-term thinking about threats that may not be addressable via weapons platforms. Spent six months in Afghanistan working with Army public affairs. (Paul, “Against COIN, for CT in Afghanistan and Elsewhere”, 1/7, Beacon (a blog), http://softpowerbeacon.blogspot.com/2010/01/against-coin-for-ct-in-afghanistan-and.html)