Aff+-+Pranav+and+Ethan

=**Neg disclosure**= 1nc v Korea Aff --- Elections DA, Unification CP, Unification DA, Secrecy CP, Asymmetric Turn on Case 2nr v Korea --- Elections DA, Secrecy CP

1nc v AIIB v 1 --- Elections DA, Japan DA, Reform IFI’s CP, Fragmentation DA 2nr v AIIB --- Elections DA

1nc v AIIB v2 --- Japan CP, Elections DA, T-QPQ 2nr v AIIB v2 --- Elections DA

1nc v Arctic v1 --- T-uncondo, Elections, Canada and Sup Court Advantage CP, Japan DA 2nr v Arctic v1 --- Elections DA

1nc v AIIB v2 --- T-QPQ, Elections DA, Appeasement, Japan CP, Rising Expectations on Case 2nr v AIIB v2 --- Appeasement

1nc v Taiwan --- T-Military, T-Uncondo, Track 2 CP, Elections DA, Japan DA, Assymetric Escalation Turn on Case, Add a condition CP:  2nr v Taiwan --- T-Uncondo

1nc v Taiwan --- Track 2 CP, Taiwan-do-the plan CP, Elections DA, T-Uncondo, Japan DA 2nr v Taiwan --- T-Uncondo

1nc v Taiwan --- Taiwan-do-the plan CP, Elections DA, T-Uncondo, Japan DA, Rising Expectations on Case. Adv CP: <Counterplan text: The United States federal government should reaffirm its commitment to the three Sino-US joint communiques and the 1992 consensus, end its support for separatists through explicitly stating it will not support Taiwan if and only if it declares de Jure independence, but clarify its position on Taiwan by affirming its commitment to defend Taiwan in the event of an unprovoked Chinese invasion, and should support an increase in track two diplomacy over nuclear modernization and the incorporation of China as a responsible stakeholder into multilateral institutions.> 2nr v Taiwan --- Nationalism Turn (read in the 2nc), Adv CP, Elections DA

1nc v AIIB v1 --- Japan CP, Japan DA, Elections DA, Engage AIIB CP, T-QPQ 2nr v AIIB v1 --- Engage AIIB CP, Elections DA

=**Aff disclosure**=

=1ac —- Taiwan V1=

1ac - plan
The United States federal government should diplomatically engage the People's Republic of China over the security measures of a staged Framework Agreement, beginning with an offer of reciprocal reductions in military commitments over Taiwan.

The risk of a US-China war over Taiwan is high. Blocking independence is China's core national interest and outweighs economic ties
Kuntić, 15 – visiting fellow at European Union Centre in Taiwan, National Taiwan University; PhD candidate at the Faculty of Political Science, University of Zagreb (Dario, "The Ominous Triangle: China-Taiwan-the United States relationship" CIRR XXI (72) 2015, 239-280) As Taiwan is important to both China and the United States, conflict of interests AND bonds of commerce, trade, and military ties between the two powers.

The DPP's election means Taiwan is moving towards de jure independence with US backing
Yin, 6/8/16 - Yin Chengde is a research fellow of China Foundation for International Studies ("Time for US to Change Its Taiwan Policy" http://www.chinausfocus.com/political-social-development/time-for-us-to-change-its-taiwan-policy/ The pro-independence DPP has returned to power in Taiwan. Despite repeated warnings AND of the Taiwan Strait and for the benefit of the US itself too.

Recent US backing proves the internal link —- also China's perception is key
Borromeo 7/15("China to US: Stop Support to Taiwan's Independence"; EL; 2016; http://en.yibada.com/articles/142059/20160715/china-stop-support-taiwans-independence.htm)//pk As Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen reportedly got in touch with a number of AND which has a different belief from the Koumintang (Nationalist Party). 4

That enraged China which just ended relations with Taiwan
Tiezzi, 6/26/16 - Shannon Tiezzi is Editor at The Diplomat. Her main focus is on China, and she writes on China's foreign relations, domestic politics, and economy. Shannon previously served as a research associate at the U.S.-China Policy Foundation ("Did China Just Kill Cross-Strait Relations?" The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2016/06/did-china-just-kill-cross-strait-relations/ Well before Taiwan held its elections on January 20, Beijing made it clear that AND more damage done to cross-strait relations than either side can fix.

Nationalist pressure and nuclear insecurity make the risk of war high and nuclear escalation probable
Glaser, 15 - Charles L Glaser is a professor in the Elliott School of International Affairs and the Department of Political Science at George Washington University. He is also a fellow in the Kissinger Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars ("A U.S.-China Grand Bargain?" International Security, Vol. 39, No. 4 (Spring 2015), pp. 49–90, doi:10.1162/ISEC_a_00199 Although a number of regional sovereignty and maritime disputes have the potential to sour the AND Party] is finding it increasingly difficult to justify its weak responses."67

The plan solves nationalism —- prevents humiliation of Chinese leaders
David Firestein 14 - Perot Fellow and EWI's Senior Vice President for the Strategic Trust-Building Initiative and Track 2 Diplomacy.("China's Relations with Taiwan and North Korea"; June 5; East West Institute; http://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Firestein-USCC%20Testimony.pdf)//pk China's public reaction to announcements of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan has AND systems, and I will come back to this point in a moment.

Strategic ambiguity risks miscalculation
Colby and Slocombe, 16 - Mr. Colby is a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. Mr. Slocombe was U.S. undersecretary of defense for policy from 1994 to 2001 (Elbridge and Walter, "U.S. 'Ambiguity' on Taiwan Is Dangerous" Wall Street Journal, 5/23, http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-ambiguity-on-taiwan-is-dangerous-1464022837 If China were to attack Taiwan, would American forces come to the island's defense AND not to fight hard enough to prevent Beijing from achieving its core goals.

Resolving issues over Taiwan ensures peaceful rise —- shapes political development
Fei-Ling Wang 7 - professor of international affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology("Taiwan: A Key to China's Rise and Transformation"; April 6; China Research Center; http://www.chinacenter.net/2007/china_currents/6-2/taiwan-a-key-to-chinas-rise-and-transformation/)//pk Driven by powerful indoctrination or simple nationalist feelings, most Chinese in and outside of AND . And Taiwan can help solidify, quicken, and smooth that process.

US-China nuclear war over Taiwan likely now – deterrence and nfu don't apply
Littlefield and Lowther 15, Alex Littlefield is Senior Editor at Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, Adam Lowther is a Research Professor at the Air Force Research Institute (AFRI) at Maxwell Air Force Base, (8/11/15, Taiwan and the Prospects for War Between China and America, The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/taiwan-and-the-prospects-for-war-between-china-and-america/)//kap For the United States and its allies and partners in Asia, China's aggressive efforts AND – the PRC will see the situation very differently than the United States.

The US and China are locked an action-reaction cycle of hostility. Negotiating a staged Framework Agreement will de-escalate tensions
Gross, 13 - adjunct fellow of Pacific Forum CSIS, former Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for International Security Affairs in the Department of State, former Counselor of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (Donald, The China Fallacy: How the U.S. Can Benefit from China's Rise and Avoid Another Cold War, p. 152-155 To overcome the structural weaknesses in U.S.-China relations—which could AND conflict U.S. and Chinese military operations and avoid accidental confrontations.

Taiwan is the most important starting point to address strategic distrust – plan is the vital internal link to broader, sustainable cooperation
Glaser, 15 - Charles L Glaser is a professor in the Elliott School of International Affairs and the Department of Political Science at George Washington University. He is also a fellow in the Kissinger Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars ("A U.S.-China Grand Bargain?" International Security, Vol. 39, No. 4 (Spring 2015), pp. 49–90, doi:10.1162/ISEC_a_00199 More important, however, is that focusing on the quality of current crossstrait relations AND of cooperation on other issues and reduce the probability of competition and conflict.

Tensions are high now and resolving Taiwan is key to multilateralism in Asia
Daniele Ermito 7/14 BA in International Relations from the University of Bologna and a MSc in Asian Politics from the School of Oriental and African Studies("Tsai Administration Faces New Tensions With Beijing"; 2016;Foreign Policy Association; http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2016/07/14/tsai-administration-tensions-beijing/)//pk Tensions between Taipei and Beijing have risen again after China announced the decision to suspend AND confrontation with Beijing, in a region whose security architecture remains dangerously unsteady.

Cooperation with China is essential to countering a litany of threats
(Donald, "The China Fallacy: How the U.S. Can Benefit from China's Rise and Avoid Another Cold War," pg. 148) =modified for gendered language To turn the perceived danger posed by China's increasing soft power into an opportunity and AND of the United States to prevent any "spillover" from occurring.
 * Gross,** senior associate of Pacific Forum CSIS, **13**

Increasing relations increases Chinese acceptance of a global leadership role
Gross, 13 - adjunct fellow of Pacific Forum CSIS, former Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for International Security Affairs in the Department of State, former Counselor of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (Donald, The China Fallacy: How the U.S. Can Benefit from China's Rise and Avoid Another Cold War, p. 62 Improved relations with China would, moreover, allow the U.S. to AND from relying on military force to achieve its security and foreign policy objectives.

US-China cooperation sets the tone for all international collaboration – key to bolster multilateralism
(Qu, "China-US Cooperation: Key to the Global Future," http://globaltrends.thedialogue.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/China-US-cooperation-Key-to-the-Global-future.pdf) The global future is likely to be increasingly volatile and uncertain. The rate of AND challenges and threats is certain to increase as globalization continues and interdependence deepens.
 * Xing**, President & CEO @ China Institute for International Studies, **13**

Graeme P. **Herd 10**, Head of the International Security Programme, Co-Director of the International Training Course in Security Policy, Geneva Centre for Security Policy, 2010, "Great Powers: Towards a "cooperative competitive" future world order paradigm?," in Great Powers and Strategic Stability in the 21^^st^^ Century, p. 197-198 Given the absence of immediate hegemonic challengers to the US (or a global strategic AND contributed to the crisis; all will be involved in the solution.24
 * ====Independently, successful management of proxy conflicts through regional multilateral institutions prevents existential threats ====**

The plan's reciprocal measures ensures trust and paves the way for broader relations
Gross, 13 - adjunct fellow of Pacific Forum CSIS, former Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for International Security Affairs in the Department of State, former Counselor of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (Donald, The China Fallacy: How the U.S. Can Benefit from China's Rise and Avoid Another Cold War, p. 159-165) Taiwan currently faces an overwhelming military threat from China, which uses its forces to AND be more than sufficient to deter and dissuade China from seeking regional dominance.

China says yes to greater diplomatic engagement; it's verifiable and won't destabilize relations with Taiwan or Asia
Swaine, 11 – senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and one of the most prominent American analysts in Chinese security studies (Michael, America's Challenge: Engaging a Rising China in the Twenty-First Century, p. 359-363 Under such circumstances, avoiding future escalating Sino-American crises over People's Liberation Army AND also not inconceivable that Beijing would permit or provide convincing levels of verification.

Say no arguments overlook the staged implementation of the negotiations – small acts of reciprocation in negotiations will lead to larger cooperation over Taiwan
Swaine, 15- senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace( Micheal, Beyond American Predominance in the Western Pacific: The Need for a Stable U.S.-China Balance of Power, Carnegie Endowment For International Peace, http://carnegieendowment.org/2015/04/20/beyond-american-predominance-in-western-pacific-need-for-stable-u.s.-china-balance-of-power)//JS These obstacles clearly indicate that Washington and Beijing are not about to undertake, much AND , including any resort to nuclear weapons, would almost certainly be avoided.

The plan fosters stronger cooperation —- moderates overcome hardliners
Li, 15 – professor, East China Normal University, School of International Relations and Area Studies (Xiaoting, "Dealing with the Ambivalent Dragon: Can Engagement Moderate China's Strategic Competition with America?" International Interactions: Empirical and Theoretical Research in International Relations Volume 41, Issue 3, 2015, DOI:10.1080/03050629 AND is a foremost necessary condition for balancing or confrontational behavior (Schweller 2004).

The plan effectively changes Chinese behavior
Mattis, 15 - Peter Mattis is a Fellow in the China Program at The Jamestown Foundation ("U.S. Policy Towards China: Imposing Costs Doesn't Mean Ending Engagement" 9/10, http://nationalinterest.org/feature/us-policy-towards-china-imposing-costs-doesnt-mean-ending-13810?page=show The idea of imposing costs or forcing China to face consequences for its actions is AND, is not a fragile flower that will wilt at the first frost.

Negotiated reciprocal concessions are vital to rapprochement and de-securitizing the conflict
Kupchan, 12 – Professor of International Affairs in the School of Foreign Service and Government Department at Georgetown University (Charles, How Enemies Become Friends, p. 41-45 During the second phase of the onset of stable peace, the trading of individual AND second phase, each state becomes confident that the other has benign motivations.

Even if China says no, the plan boosts US resolve and reinforces regional alliances
Glaser, 15 - Charles L Glaser is a professor in the Elliott School of International Affairs and the Department of Political Science at George Washington University. He is also a fellow in the Kissinger Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars ("A U.S.-China Grand Bargain?" International Security, Vol. 39, No. 4 (Spring 2015), pp. 49–90, doi:10.1162/ISEC_a_00199 The preceding assessment lays bare the complexity of a U.S. policy of AND East Asia, increasing U.S. capabilities would enhance its security.

=1ac --- Taiwan V2=

Plan
The United States federal government should diplomatically engage the People's Republic of China over the security measures of a staged Framework Agreement, beginning with an offer of reciprocal reductions in military commitments over Taiwan.

Multilat
====The US and China are locked an action-reaction cycle of hostility. Negotiating a staged Framework Agreement will de-escalate tensions and create a sustainable path towards relations and cooperation on global existential threats==== Gross, 13 - adjunct fellow of Pacific Forum CSIS, former Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for International Security Affairs in the Department of State, former Counselor of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (Donald, The China Fallacy: How the U.S. Can Benefit from China's Rise and Avoid Another Cold War, p. 152-155 To overcome the structural weaknesses in U.S.-China relations—which could AND conflict U.S. and Chinese military operations and avoid accidental confrontations.

Taiwan is the most important starting point to address strategic distrust – plan is the vital internal link to broader, sustainable cooperation
Glaser, 15 - Charles L Glaser is a professor in the Elliott School of International Affairs and the Department of Political Science at George Washington University. He is also a fellow in the Kissinger Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars ("A U.S.-China Grand Bargain?" International Security, Vol. 39, No. 4 (Spring 2015), pp. 49–90, doi:10.1162/ISEC_a_00199 More important, however, is that focusing on the quality of current crossstrait relations AND of cooperation on other issues and reduce the probability of competition and conflict.

Cooperation with China is essential to countering a litany of threats
(Donald, "The China Fallacy: How the U.S. Can Benefit from China's Rise and Avoid Another Cold War," pg. 148) =modified for gendered language To turn the perceived danger posed by China's increasing soft power into an opportunity and AND of the United States to prevent any "spillover" from occurring.
 * Gross,** senior associate of Pacific Forum CSIS, **13**

Increasing relations increases Chinese acceptance of a global leadership role
Gross, 13 - adjunct fellow of Pacific Forum CSIS, former Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for International Security Affairs in the Department of State, former Counselor of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (Donald, The China Fallacy: How the U.S. Can Benefit from China's Rise and Avoid Another Cold War, p. 62 Improved relations with China would, moreover, allow the U.S. to AND from relying on military force to achieve its security and foreign policy objectives.

US-China cooperation sets the tone for all international collaboration – key to bolster multilateralism
(Qu, "China-US Cooperation: Key to the Global Future," http://globaltrends.thedialogue.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/China-US-cooperation-Key-to-the-Global-future.pdf) The global future is likely to be increasingly volatile and uncertain. The rate of AND challenges and threats is certain to increase as globalization continues and interdependence deepens.
 * Xing**, President & CEO @ China Institute for International Studies, **13**

US-China climate cooperation facilitates mitigation strategies globally—-solves extinction
(Xiaoyu, "China-US Cooperation: Key to the Global Future," China Institute of International Studies, http://www.ciis.org.cn/english/2014-01/13/content_6606656.htm) • Cooperation on climate change mitigation, adaptation, and consequence management. China- AND US businesses as well as lower costs and widely disseminate clean energy technologies.
 * Li 14** – MA in Global Studies @ U Denver, Int'l Affairs Coordinator @ UN

US-China cooperation on warming is key
Alice **Chang**, majoring in Economics-Government at Claremont College, "Would You Like It Hot or Cold? An Analysis of U.S.-China Climate Policy," Claremont Colleges, Spring **2015**, 1204. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/1204 The United States and China hold titles as the world's largest economies and GHG emitters AND unique responsibility to curb their emissions and lead efforts to combat climate change.

Multilat cooperation on climate change key
Cunningham 16**, **(Thomas Cunningham is the deputy director of the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Center,"The Foreign Policy of New Energy", http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-foreign-policy-of-new-energy, 06/07/2016, GO) On the other end of the spectrum is global cooperation to address climate change. AND electricity markets, and international regulatory cooperation will be more important than ever.

Warming causes extinction and exacerbates structural violence
Sharp and Kennedy, 14 – is an associate professor on the faculty of the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies (NESA). A former British Army Colonel he retired in 2006 and emigrated to the U.S. Since joining NESA in 2010, he has focused on Yemen and Lebanon, and also supported NESA events into Afghanistan, Turkey, Egypt, Israel, Palestine and Qatar. He is the faculty lead for NESA's work supporting theUAE National Defense College through an ongoing Foreign Military Sales (FMS) case. He also directs the Network of Defense and Staff Colleges (NDSC) which aims to provide best practice support to regional professional military and security sector education development and reform. Prior to joining NESA, he served for 4 years as an assistant professor at the College of International Security Affairs (CISA) at National Defense University where he wrote and taught a Masters' Degree syllabus for a program concentration in Conflict Management of Stability Operations and also taught strategy, counterterrorism, counterinsurgency, and also created an International Homeland Defense Fellowship program. At CISA he also designed, wrote and taught courses supporting the State Department's Civilian Response Corps utilizing conflict management approaches. Bob served 25 years in the British Army and was personally decorated by Her Majesty the Queen twice. Aftergraduating from the Royal Military Academy, Sandhurst in 1981, he served in command and staff roles on operations in Northern Ireland, Kosovo, Gulf War 1, Afghanistan, and Cyprus. He has worked in policy and technical staff appointments in the UK Ministry of Defense and also UK Defense Intelligence plus several multi-national organizations including the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). In his later career, he specialized in intelligence. He is a 2004 distinguished graduate of the National War College and holds a masters degree in National Security Strategy from National Defense University, Washington, D.C. AND is a renewable energy and climate change specialist who has worked for the World Bank and the Spanish Electric Utility ENDESA on carbon policy and markets (Robert and Edward, 8-22, "Climate Change and Implications for National Security" http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/2014/08/22/climate-change-implications-national-security/)djm Our planet is 4.5 billion years old. If that whole time was AND investment patterns, and political decisions; it will be hard to fix!

Climate discourse breaks down securitization—it totally transforms the nature of human ethical responsibility and what constitutes a "security" risk
Trombetta '8 (Maria Julia, Professor of Economics of Infrastructures of Delft University of Technology, "The meaning and function of climate security" http://tudelft.academia.edu/MariaJuliaTrombetta/Papers/899481/The_meaning_and_function_of_climate_security) The two main arguments against considering the environment as a security issue come from Realists AND how the "climate security discourse" has evolved and transformed security practices.

Climate discourse motivates action on climate change
Sixth thesis: The political explosiveness of global risks is largely a function of their AND powerful as this hunger for modernization or it is condemned to repeated failure.
 * Beck 10** (Ulrich, Professor of Sociology at University of Munich, the British Journal of Sociology Visiting Centennial Professor at the London School of Economics and Political Sciences, and, since 2009, Senior Loeb Fellow at the Harvard Design School, "Climate for Change, or How to Create a Green Modernity?", Theory Culture Society 2010 27: 254)

Scenario 2
Graeme P. **Herd 10**, Head of the International Security Programme, Co-Director of the International Training Course in Security Policy, Geneva Centre for Security Policy, 2010, "Great Powers: Towards a "cooperative competitive" future world order paradigm?," in Great Powers and Strategic Stability in the 21^^st^^ Century, p. 197-198 Given the absence of immediate hegemonic challengers to the US (or a global strategic AND contributed to the crisis; all will be involved in the solution.24
 * ====Multilateralism ensures international cooperation preventing existential threats====**

Imagine for a moment that the social world is a bit like an onion- AND and parcel of each and every practice that makes the world go round.
 * ====Multilateral diplomacy is the explanatory force behind global order – multiple theoretical perspectives and empirics confirm that we control the internal link to all global crises ====**
 * Pouliot, 16**—Dr. Vincent, Scholar and Professor @ McGill U, Director of the Centre for International Peace and Security Studies, twice awarded the Lemieux Prize for the best thesis in political science. International Pecking Orders: The Politics and Practice of Multilateral Diplomacy, Cambridge Press. p. 254-9 –br

Multilateralism is inevitable and is part of the solution to violence even if it's not a panacea
Emmanuelle **Jouannet 7**, Professor, Universite Paris I - Pantheon Sorbonne, "ESSAY: WHAT IS THE USE OF INTERNATIONAL LAW? INTERNATIONAL LAW AS A 21ST CENTURY GUARDIAN OF WELFARE", 28 Mich. J. Int'l L. 815, Michigan Journal of International Law, Lexis It now seems impossible to turn back from the present course. To deny the AND conduct of domestic and international actors, combats misery, and prevents risks.

Multilateralism serves as a vehicle for resistance and avoid legitimizing Western violence
Seyla Benhabib 9, PhD, Eugene Meyer Professor of Political Science and Philosophy at Yale University and Adjunct Prof of Law at Yale Law, "Cosmopolitan Norms, Human Rights and Democratic Iterations," http://www.brown.edu/Research/ppw/files/cosmopolitan%20norms,%20human%20rights%20and%20democratic%20iterations2.doc I do not wish to deny, therefore, the many ambivalencies, contradictions and AND as undermining democratic sovereignty, when in fact, it can enhance it.

China says yes to the plan which builds broader Asian trust
Gross, 13 - adjunct fellow of Pacific Forum CSIS, former Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for International Security Affairs in the Department of State, former Counselor of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (Donald, The China Fallacy: How the U.S. Can Benefit from China's Rise and Avoid Another Cold War, p. 159-165) Taiwan currently faces an overwhelming military threat from China, which uses its forces to AND be more than sufficient to deter and dissuade China from seeking regional dominance.

Negotiated reciprocal concessions are vital to rapprochement and de-securitizing the conflict
Kupchan, 12 – Professor of International Affairs in the School of Foreign Service and Government Department at Georgetown University (Charles, How Enemies Become Friends, p. 41-45 During the second phase of the onset of stable peace, the trading of individual AND second phase, each state becomes confident that the other has benign motivations.

China says yes to greater diplomatic engagement; it's verifiable and won't destabilize relations with Taiwan or Asia
Swaine, 11 – senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and one of the most prominent American analysts in Chinese security studies (Michael, America's Challenge: Engaging a Rising China in the Twenty-First Century, p. 359-363 Under such circumstances, avoiding future escalating Sino-American crises over People's Liberation Army AND also not inconceivable that Beijing would permit or provide convincing levels of verification.

Say no arguments overlook the staged implementation of the negotiations – small acts of reciprocation in negotiations will lead to larger cooperation over Taiwan
Swaine, 15- senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace( Micheal, Beyond American Predominance in the Western Pacific: The Need for a Stable U.S.-China Balance of Power, Carnegie Endowment For International Peace, http://carnegieendowment.org/2015/04/20/beyond-american-predominance-in-western-pacific-need-for-stable-u.s.-china-balance-of-power)//JS These obstacles clearly indicate that Washington and Beijing are not about to undertake, much AND , including any resort to nuclear weapons, would almost certainly be avoided.