Sophie+&+Sam


 * Sophie (2N) : phabaceous@gmail.com**
 * Samantha (2A) : samanthaqrock@gmail.com**


 * note: I was 2n for approx. 3 practice debates so far (2a the rest of the time), so past 2nr strats are limited.**

=__**1AC**__= The United States federal government should normalize its trade relations with Cuba.

Cuban reforms are inevitable but the loss of external investment risks economic and social collapse – offering normal trade relations is vital

 * Ashby 13,** Senior Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs. He served in the U.S. Commerce Department's International Trade Administration as Director of the Office of Mexico and the Caribbean and acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of Commerce for the Western Hemisphere(Timothy, "Preserving Stability in Cuba After Normalizing Relations with the United States – The Importance of Trading with State-Owned Enterprises" 3/29/13, Council on Hemispheric Affairs, http://www.coha.org/preserving-stability-in-cuba-timothy-ashby/)//AD

Cuba under Raúl Castro has entered a new period of economic.... Two-way trade must include both Cuba’s private sector as well as SOEs.

**Economic liberalization will force political reform to accommodate**
Lopez-Levy 13 – PhD candidate at Josef Korbel School of International Studies, coauthor of “Raul Castro and the New Cuba” (Arturo, The National Interest, April 10, 2013, [])//EK

If Cuba implements the type of mixed economy proposed..... U.S. pursue a new approach to Cuba in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro Cuba?

**Hotspots all risk escalation to global nuclear war**
David Bosco (a senior editor at Foreign Policy magazine) July 2006 “Forum: Keeping an eye peeled for World War III” []

The understanding that small but violent acts can spark //global conflagration ...... // and yet there was not even a hint that France, Russia or China would respond militarily.

**Independently, enforcing the embargo itself undermines the war on terror**

 * Johnson, et al, 10** – Andy Johnson is a director in the national security program at The Third Way (“End the Embargo of Cuba”, The National Security Program, 9/6/10, [|http://content.thirdway.org/publications/326/Third_Way_Memo_-_End_the_Embargo_of_Cuba.pdf)//EX]

Keeping the embargo in place requires that the US government ..... could better focus on actual state sponsors of terror and instead use resources in the Western Hemisphere bureau to initiate a new path for engaging Cuba.

Terror leads to existential Russia war
Starr 13 - MT, Senior Scientist and Director of Clinical Laboratory Science (Steven, Nuclear Darkness, “Nuclear War caused by Terrorism”, 2013, [])//EK

As long as the US and Russia maintain LoW capability and a de facto LoW policy.... status would at least least prevent the quick-launch of these weapons under such circumstances.

US/Russian war causes extinction – most probable
Bostrom ‘2 (Nick Bostrom, professor of philosophy - Oxford University, March, 2002, Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards, Journal of Evolution and Technology, p. http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html) A much greater existential risk emerged with the build-up of nuclear arsenals .....Unfortunately, we shall see that nuclear Armageddon and comet or asteroid strikes are mere preludes to the existential risks that we will encounter in the 21st century.

**Greater focus and resources to counter-terrorism is vital – WMD terrorism risks are increasing**

 * Clark, 13 -** Bruce Clarke is a retired Army Colonel with extensive strategic, operational and tactical experience. He is widely published on a myriad of strategic and operational subjects. Immediately prior to his retirement from the Army, Colonel Clarke was the Director of US National Security Studies at the US Army War College(Bruce, The Examiner, “ The end to the war on terrorism--really?” 5/28, [])

I have been struck by the response...... Israel and our allies around the world! No one should doubt that al Qaeda, Hezbollah or Iran's Revolutionary Guards will use them when they get them.

**This risks extinction**
(Robert, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 33.7, InformaWorld)//BB
 * Ayson 10 ** - Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington

But these two nuclear worlds—a non-state actor nuclear attack and .... although it must be admitted that any preemption would probably still meet with a devastating response.

**The unconditional offer of normal trade relations boosts US-Cuban relations and fosters a stable transition**

 * Koenig, 10** – US Army Colonel, paper submitted for a Masters in Strategic Studies at the US Army War College (Lance, “Time for a New Cuba Policy” [])

The option with the greatest possibility of success and reward for the United States.... opportunity to create an inflection point for Cuba that guides her onto a path that will benefit the nations of the Americas.

**Removing sanctions and allowing greater engagement makes the democratization process stable**

 * Lopez-Levy 11 ** – PhD candidate at Josef Korbel School of International Studies, coauthor of “Raul Castro and the New Cuba” (Arturo, New America Foundation, May 2011, [])//EK

Diplomacy, not sanctions, must be the primary tool for resolving differences with Havana..... There are numerous examples, world-wide, of the positive repercussions a transition to a market economy (the Cuban non-state sector would jump from 15% of GDP today to 35% in 2015) has for the independence of civil society. The United States should support such a course in Cuba.

**Failure of economic reform causes civil war**

 * Lopez-Levy 11 ** – PhD candidate at Josef Korbel School of International Studies, coauthor of “Raul Castro and the New Cuba” (Arturo, New America Foundation, May 2011, [])//EK

Indeed, if Cuba’s economic reform fails and local revolts ensue, the most likely outcome ..... and a stable process of political liberalization that welcomes the growth of nonpartisan Cuban civil society organizations.

**The embargo props up the regime and stops democratization**

 * Lloyd, 10**- Writer for the NYT among other major publications and former Political Science teacher at the University of Chicago (Delia, “Ten Reasons to Lift the Cuba Embargo”, Politics Daily, 8/24/10, http://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/08/24/ten-reasons-to-lift-the-cuba-embargo/)//TL

5. It doesn't work. Of course, if the embargo were the last outpost of Cold War politics ..... yet another potential catalyst for democratization.

= 1ac Multilateralism =

**US leadership is unsustainable without a highly visible commitment to multilateralism**

 * Lake, 10–** Professor of Social Sciences, distinguished professor of political science at UC San Diego (David A., “Making America Safe for the World: Multilateralism and the Rehabilitation of US authority”, [|__http://dss.ucsd.edu/~dlake/documents/LakeMakingAmericaSafe.pdf__])//NG

The safeguarding of US authority requires multilateralism..... at home or abroad. Recognizing the universal need to restrain authority, the United States should, in its own self-interest, lead the way to a new world order.

**The plan is a powerful symbol of that commitment**

 * Burgsdorff, 9–** Ph. D in Political Science from Freiburg University, EU Fellow at the University of Miami (Sven Kühn von, “Problems and Opportunities for the Incoming Obama Administration”, [|__http://aei.pitt.edu.proxy.lib.umich.edu/11047/1/vonBurgsdorfUSvsCubalong09edi.pdf__])//NG//

// 6.3 How would the international community react? .... by the international community as// steps towards effective multilateralism.//

** The alternative to multilateralism is unilateral militarism – the plan establishes a model for hemispheric diplomacy that sustains US leadership **

 * Grandin 10 ** – teaches history at New York University and is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences (Greg, “Empire's Senescence: U.S. Policy in Latin America,” //New Labor Forum//, 19:1, Winter 2010, pg. 14-23)//SJF

Washington’s relations with Latin America.... as domestic ideologues, unchecked corporate power, and political paralysis quicken the U.S.’s fall.

**The plan creates a credible model for multilateral conflict resolution**

 * Dickerson 10 **– Lieutenant Colonel, US Army, paper submitted in fulfillment of a Master of Strategic Studies Degree at the US Army War College (Sergio M, “UNITED STATES SECURITY STRATEGY TOWARDS CUBA,” 1/14/10, http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a518053.pdf)//SJF

At the international political level, President Obama sees resuming relations with Cuba.... The U.S. could begin to lead again and reverse its perceived decline in the greater global order bringing true peace for years to come.

**Reliance on unilateralism will collapse US leadership and cause global wars with weapons of mass destruction**

 * Montalván, 10** - a 17-year veteran of the U.S. Army including multiple combat tours in Iraq, master's of science from Columbia University's Graduate School of Journalism (Luis, “Multilateralism is Essential for Peace in the 21st Century” Huffington Post, 4/23, [])

Unilateralism is the wrong approach for American Diplomacy.... limited resources and security have divided us. Now is the time to create rather than divide common ground.

**Even if heg decline is inevitable, multilateralism solves your transition war arguments**

 * He, 10 **—Professor of Political Science at Utah State University(Kai He, “The hegemon’s choice between power and security: explaining US policy toward Asia after the Cold War,” __Review of International Studies__ (2010), 36, pg. 1121–1143)//NG

When US policymakers perceive a rising or a stable...... security in the future anarchic, multipolar world. Pg. 1141-1143

**This diplomatic approach prevents conflict escalation. Only the AFF can access a large war impact**

 * Wright 10****–**Executive director of studies at The Chicago Council on Global Affairs (Thomas, "Strategic Engagement’s Track Record," The Washington Quarterly)//NG

The obstacles to a new international order are not just due to free-riding, barriers to coordination, misunderstandings, or relatively minor differences.....the adjustment of differences through negotiation, is possible only in ‘legitimate’ international orders.49

**Any step short of __unconditional removal__ means won’t create the same symbol of multilateralism**
(Jose Miguel, “Restraint, not force, will bring change to Cuba”, humans rights watch, 12/22/06, [], google scholar)//KW
 * Vivanco 6 **- LLM from Harvard Law School, Americas director of Humans Rights Watch

This reluctance would be understandable but misguided..... US could begin to reverse the dynamic that helped keep Mr Castro in power. Only when the US stops acting like Goliath will Cuba stop looking like David.

=__Add-ons__=

=__Neg Strats__=

**1.**
1NC: T-G2G, Alan Gross CP, Pltx, Geography K 2NC/1NR: T, CP, Pltx 2NR: CP and plltx

**2.**
1NC: T-trade, NADBank CP, Immigration Pltx, Colonialism K 2NC/1NR: T, CP, Pltx 2NR: CP and pltx

**3.**
1NC: T -conditional, Immigration Pltx, XO CP, Neolib K 2NC/1NR: T, Neolib, case 2NR: T

Round 2
1NC: T-conditional, Immigration pltx, Environmental conditions cp, Rage K 2NC/1NR: K, T 2NR: K

Round 4
1NC: T-trade, Immigration pltx, XO CP, Rage K 2NC/1NR: K, T 2NR: T

Round 5
1NC: 2NC/1NR: 2NR: