AFL+and%252520Julian

Aff: Afghanistan with Heg (cred, overstretch) and The War


 * Plan: The United States federal government should reduce nearly all military presence necessary to pursue counterinsurgency in Afghanistan **
 * Advantage I: Hegemony **


 * The war in Afghanistan will collapse American primacy – 2 internal links: **


 * First – credibility. **
 * Obama announced a July 2011 withdrawal date, but it is based on the conditional success of the counterinsurgency mission and the US won’t actually withdraw.**
 * Rogin, 10** - staff writer for Foreign Policy, Prior to that, Josh covered defense and foreign policy for Congressional Quarterly. Josh has also worked at the House International Relations Committee, and the Brookings Institution (Josh, “Petraeus: Withdrawal timeline does not mean "switching off the lights",” The Cable, 6/29, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/06/29/petraeus_withdrawal_timeline_does_not_mean_switching_off_the_lights )

When General David Petraeus testifies today... exactly what they've been doing ."


 * Second –overstretch **


 * Counterinsurgency doctrine is overstretching the US military and exhausting American leadership – withdrawing to a co **** u nterterrorism strategy is key **
 * Kretkowski, 10 ** – Frequently assists think tank in conferences and other work products that aid DoD's long-term thinking about threats that may not be addressable via weapons platforms. Spent six months in Afghanistan working with Army public affairs. (Paul, “Against COIN, for CT in Afghanistan and Elsewhere”, 1/7, Beacon (a blog), [])

__I __ now  __oppose a counterinsurgency__ (COIN) __strategy__...__rising power (China, a reinvigorated Russia __


 * Afghanistan is a quagmire of attrition warfare that is destroying US morale and readiness. **
 * Kuhner, 9 - ** the president of the Edmund Burke Institute for American Renewal (Jeffrey, Washington Times, “Obama’s quagmire; US should look to its own interests,” 9/7, Lexis Academic)

__America is losing the war  in Afghanistan __...evil, welcoming __arms of extremists.__


 * This will obliterate American primacy **
 * Pyne, 9 - ** Vice Chair of the Utah State Legislative Compensation Commission and Vice President of the Association of the United States Army's Utah chapter and a Vice President of the Salt Lake Total Force Chapter of the Military Officers Association of America (David, “Obama failing our troops in Afghanistan,” 11/7, http://westernfrontamerica.com/2009/11/07/obama-failing-troops-afghanistan / )

__Since we invaded __Iraq six and a half years ago...__US-ally Georgia __ this past year.

Heg key to solve all impacts- only threat to world peace if it collapses.

 * Kagan 07** (Robert, Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Senior Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund) 2007  “End of Dreams, Return of History,” Hoover Institution, No. 144, August/September, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/6136

<span style="font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 7pt;">The jostling for status and influence ... <span style="font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">draw the United States back in again <span style="font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 8pt;">.
 * The plan solves – reducing to a counterterrorism focus creates sustainable presence, and prevents vacillations between engagement and isolationism **
 * Stewart, 9- ** Ryan Family Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (9/16/09, Rory, “The Future of Afghanistan,” [])

__<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">The best Afghan policy would be __<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">...__<span style="background: aqua; color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">limit our objectives to counter-terrorism __


 * Obama will sell the plan as a drawdown to a lighter but permanent commitment to Afghanistan – this resolves confusion over the withdrawal deadline and restores US credibility **
 * Stewart, 10 ** - Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at Harvard, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (Rory, “Afghanistan: What Could Work”, New York Review of Books, 1/14, [])

__<span style="background: aqua; color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">By asserting __ convincingly that Afghanistan is... more sustainable, and more permanent presence


 * The plan’s rejection of counterinsurgency creates a doctrinal shift towards selective engagement that can sustain US presence globally **
 * Gventer, 9 ** - Senior Defense Analyst at the RAND Corporation and a former deputy assistant secretary of defense. She served two tours in Iraq, including a year as a senior adviser to General Peter Chiarelli, the operational commander in Iraq in 2006 (Celeste, “False Promise of 'Counterinsurgency'”, 12/1, http://www.rand.org/commentary/2009/12/01/NYT.html)

__<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">An effort to conduct " counterinsurgency " __<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">...__<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">U.S. military capable of applying overwhelming force. __


 * Advantage 2: The War **


 * Counterinsurgency will fail for multiple reasons.**
 * Nelson, 9** – former director of a Joint Task Force in support of Operation Enduring Freedom, retired naval officer with assignments at the National Counterterrorism Center and National Security Council, and Senior Fellow at the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (Rick, “The Other Side of the COIN”, 10/1, http://csis.org/publication/other-side-coin )


 * <span style="font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 7pt;">Probably not. <span style="font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">Counterinsurgency doctrine <span style="font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 7pt;">, or COIN...<span style="font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 7pt;">expenditure that any “all-in” approach would entail.   **
 * A large military footprint combined with the perception of an illegitimate government make crushing the Taliban impossible – it can recruit faster than we can kill **
 * Galston 10 - ** Senior Fellow of Governance Studies @ Brookings (William, Senior Fellow of Governance Studies @ Brookings, “A Question of Life and Death: U.S. Policy in Afghanistan,” Brookings, June 15th, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2010/0615_afghanistan_galston.aspx)

__<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">Are the basic premises of our current policy __<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">...__<span style="background: aqua; color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">military presence and political force in Afghanistan __


 * Pashtun nationalism and the lack of history with a strong state makes combatting corruption or raising a sustainable security force impossible. **
 * Dorronsoro, 09 ** - visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (9/23/09, Gilles, The National Interest, “Afghanization,” http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=22218)

<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">In addition, **__there is no state structure...__<span style="background: aqua; color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">as the major provider of insecurity **


 * Multiple impacts - **


 * First – Pakistan. A large counterinsurgency footprint drives insurgents to Pakistan, mobilizes the Pakistani Taliban and will cause Pakistan to collapse **
 * __ Akhtar, 10- __** professor of international relations, and a senior analyst & writer. He was the dean of faculty of management, Baluchistan university, and former chairman of International Relations Department, Karachi university (1/26/10, Shameem, “Pakistan’s Instability : The US War Factor,” http://www.islamonline.net/servlet/Satellite?c=Article_C&cid=1262372328640&pagename=Zone-English-Muslim_Affairs/MAELayout#**1)**

__<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">If it is a war against extremists __<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">...__<span style="background: aqua; color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">US military occupation of Afghanistan, __

Pakistan collapse causes global nuclear conflict – draws in China, India and Russia Pitt, 9 ** - a New York Times and internationally bestselling author of two books: "War on Iraq: What Team Bush Doesn't Want You to Know" and "The Greatest Sedition Is Silence." (5/8/09, William, “Unstable Pakistan Threatens the World,” []) **


 * __<span style="background: aqua; color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">Pakistan is now trembling on the edge of violent chaos __<span style="background: aqua; color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">... **__<span style="background: aqua; color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">collision course with unimaginable disaster __<span style="background: aqua; color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">**__<span style="background: aqua; color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">. __**

Second – terrorism –

Risk of nuclear terrorism is high – an attack will come from al Qaeda by 2013 Hall, 10 ** (Mimi, USA Today, “Obama seeks front against nuclear terror”, 4/12, [|http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/20] 1 0 - 04-11-nukesummit_N.htm **


 * __<span style="background: aqua; color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">nuclear terrorism __ <span style="color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">— <span style="color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 8pt;">a threat so dire that it...__<span style="background: aqua; color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">used in a terrorist attack" by 2013 __<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">.  **

Arkedis, 9** - director of the National Security Project at the Progressive Policy Institute. He was a counterterrorism analyst with the Naval Criminal Investigative Service from 2002 to 2007 (Jim, “Why Al Qaeda Wants a Safe Haven”, 10/23, [])
 * Afghanistan is a vital safe haven for al Qaeda – terrorism is inevitable but nuclear risks can be reduced is the US drives them out

I spent five years as a … physical space it can access

Nuclear terrorism causes extinction Morgan, 9 ** - Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin Campus - South Korea (Dennis, Futures, November, “World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race,” Science Direct) **


 * __<span style="background: aqua; color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">terrorists __ <span style="color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 8pt;">obviously already know... __ suffering in a nuclear winter __ . **

Gradual withdrawal while maintaining a counterterrorism strategy allows more effective US leadership in the war on terror and maximizes US credibility Chellany, 09 ** - professor of strategic studies at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi (9/14/09, Brahma, Japan Times, “An Advantagous U.S. Exit,” []) **


 * <span style="color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 8pt;">. __<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">Before Afghanistan becomes a Vietnam-style quagmire __<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">... **__<span style="background: aqua; color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">aid the fight against international terrorism __<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">**<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">. **

A substantial drawdown to a purely counterterrorism presence will maximize US influence in Central Asia and contain instability and terrorism Simon, and Stevenson, 9 ** * adjunct Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, AND **Professor of Strategic Studies at the US Naval War College, (Steven and Jonathan, “Afghanistan: How Much is Enough?” Survival, 51:5, 47 – 67, October 2009 [])

__<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">increasingly strong perceptions of the Karzai government __<span style="background: aqua; color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">...__<span style="background: aqua; color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">denying al-Qaeda access to Afghanistan __<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">.


 * A counterterrorism posture empirically works – it reduces the threat of terrorism and can provide actionable intelligence **
 * Long, 10 ** - assistant professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs (Austin, “Small is Beautiful: The Counterterrorism Option in Afghanistan,” Orbis, Spring 2010, Science Direct)

__<span style="background: aqua; color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">If the strategic goal is to disrupt, __<span style="background: aqua; color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">...__<span style="background: aqua; color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">environment filled with hostile Taliban __


 * Withdrawal of combat troops will immediately turn the population against the Taliban and shores up Afghan government legitimacy **
 * Dorronsoro,9 - ** Visiting Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (January 2009, Gilles, “Focus and Exit: An Alternative Strategy for the Afghan War,” [])

__<span style="background: aqua; color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">the presence of foreign troops is the most __<span style="background: aqua; color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">...__<span style="background: aqua; color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">without the help of foreign troops <span style="color: black; font-family: 'Georgia','serif'; font-size: 11pt;">. __