Andy+Hou+and+Kevin+Li

Emails: TSMDebateKL@gmail.com andy2khou@gmail.com

AFF:

1ac—Plan
====The United States federal government should diplomatically and economically offer to fully support and pursue full member status in the Arctic Council for the People’s Republic of China if China agrees to participate in bilateral cooperative agreements regarding Arctic scientific research and environmental policy issues.====

Brexit was just the “tip of the iceberg” – multilateralism is collapsing, but demonstrated political will can revive it
Wurf, 16 —Hannah, Research Associate working in the G20 Studies Centre at the Lowy Institute. Her research interests are global governance and multilateralism, June 9, Online: “http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2016/06/09/What-the-UK-needs-now-is-more-multilateralism-not-less.aspx”, Article: “What the UK needs now is more multilateralism, not less” Accessed on: 06-24-16//AWW

China won’t back Arctic warming initiatives, __decking__ US-China warming cooperation – supporting __Beijing’s Arctic status__ is key
Tiezzi, 15 —Shannon, Editor at The Diplomat, previously served as a research associate at the U.S.-China Policy Foundation, MA @ Harvard, also studied at Tsinghua University in Beijing. “Why Did China Opt Out of the Arctic Climate Change Statement?” The Diplomat, Sept 1, [] --br

__Arctic cooperation__ is __vital__ – it’s the __epicenter__ of __glacier research__ and __shipping__ emission regulation
Slayton and Brigham, 15 —David Slayton is research fellow, co-chair and executive director of the Arctic Security Initiative at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. Lawson W. Brigham is distinguished professor of geography and Arctic policy at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, a fellow at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy’s Center for Arctic Study & Policy, and a member of Hoover’s Arctic Security Initiative. “Strengthen Arctic cooperation between the US and China,” Aug 27, Alaska Dispatch News (ADN), [] --br

==== Arctic environmental cooperation spills over to boost multilateral cooperation globally, but it’s on the brink – our impact is reverse causal – cooperation creates a paradigmatic governance shift that halts warfare and several other immediate existential risks ==== Heinenen, 16 —Lassi, Professor of Arctic Politics @ University of Lapland, Finland. author of more than 200 scientific publications and is the editor of //The Arctic Yearbook//. “High Arctic Stability as an Asset for Storms of International Politics,” __Future Security of the Global Arctic: State Policy, Economic Security and Climate__, Palgrave Macmillan, p. 4-8 [] --br

Acting now is key to reviving US-China Arctic cooperation – it’s try or die
Slayton and Brigham, 15 —David Slayton is research fellow, co-chair and executive director of the Arctic Security Initiative at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. Lawson W. Brigham is distinguished professor of geography and Arctic policy at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, a fellow at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy’s Center for Arctic Study & Policy, and a member of Hoover’s Arctic Security Initiative. “Strengthen Arctic cooperation between the US and China,” Aug 27, Alaska Dispatch News (ADN), [] --br

Pursuing Chinese full member status in exchange for environmental cooperation locks in __multilateral peace__ – that’s key to defuse inevitable __proxy conflicts__ that __wreck stability__
Dwyer, 15 — Commander William G. Dwyer III, United States Coast Guard, “China’s Strategic Interests in the Arctic,” NDU Press 3rd Place Paper, United States Army War College, Joint Force Quarterly, NDU Press, [], p. 15-17

Cooperation is on the __brink__ – China’s carefully assessing US __signals of commitment__
Davenport, 16 —Coral, covers energy and climate change policy at The New York Times, previously a fellow with the Metcalf Institute for Marine and Environmental Reporting and covered energy and the environment for National Journal, Politico, and Congressional Quarterly. “Supreme Court’s Blow to Emissions Efforts May Imperil Paris Climate Accord,” New York Times (NYT), Feb 10, [] --br

The plan revives US-China cooperation by spurring __highly-visible__, __lasting__ changes
Slayton and Brigham, 15 —David Slayton is research fellow, co-chair and executive director of the Arctic Security Initiative at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. Lawson W. Brigham is distinguished professor of geography and Arctic policy at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, a fellow at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy’s Center for Arctic Study & Policy, and a member of Hoover’s Arctic Security Initiative. “Strengthen Arctic cooperation between the US and China,” Aug 27, Alaska Dispatch News (ADN), [] --br

__US-China cooperation__ is key – they’re the __two largest emitters__ and __drive multilateral action__
Hongzhou, 15 —Zhang, Associate Research Fellow with the China Programme @ S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) at Nanyang Technological University (Singapore). “China-US Climate Change Cooperation: Beyond Energy,” The Diplomat, Oct 13, [] --br

US-China climate cooperation facilitates __mitigation and adaptation__ strategies globally – solves extinction
Li 14 – MA in Global Studies @ U Denver, Int’l Affairs Coordinator @ UN (Xiaoyu, “China-US Cooperation: Key to the Global Future,” China Institute of International Studies, http://www.ciis.org.cn/english/2014-01/13/content_6606656.htm)

Cooperation in the arctic empirically leads to increases in science diplomacy
Numminen 10  (Lotta Numminen at the The Finnish Institute of International Affairs, Environmental Programme, ¶ “Breaking the Ice: Can environmental and scientific cooperation be the way forward in the Arctic” [|Political Geography] ¶ [|Volume 29, Issue 2], February 2010, Pages 85–87

Science Diplomacy increases multilateralism
Edwina Hollander, Researcher for Marine and Estuarine Ecology at the University Of Tasmania, 15 , Online: “http://www.e-ir.info/2015/08/30/how-does-science-diplomacy-cope-with-challenges-facing-diplomacy-more-broadly/", Article: “How Does Science Diplomacy Cope with Challenges Facing Diplomacy More Broadly?” Accessed on: 06-23-16//AWW

Science diplomacy solves climate change
Wolfe 13 – Audra J Wolfe is a writer, editor, and historian at The Guardian with a BS in chemistry from Purdue University and a historian of science (PhD from UPenn) and author of an award-winning Cold War science book, “Science diplomacy works, but only when it’s genuine”, [], The Guardian, Aug 23, dz

Expert consensus that warming is real and existential – melting glaciers ignite a cascade that exceeds cost-benefit analysis
Treich and Rheinberger, 15 —Christoph Rheinberger (Professor of Health Policy and Management @ Harvard) and Nicolas Treich (Professor at the Toulouse School of Economics). Citing Weitzman (economist @ Harvard) and Bostrom (prof @ Oxford). “On the economics of the end of the world as we know it,” The Economist, [] -- br

Milankovitch cycles makes global warming inevitable

 * Wu 15** - Writer for The Science Times (Brian Wu, 3/13/15, "Fluctuations in the Orbit of the Earth Can Impact Global Warming", www.sciencetimes.com/articles/4258/20150313/fluctuations-orbit-earth-impact-global-warming.htm)

Try or die – the Arctic will be ice free by 2100, driving 2/3 of all global trade through the Arctic without regulation
Saul and Chestney, 16 —Jonathan and Nina, Reuters reporters citing Whit Sheard of the Circumpolar Conservation Union, Julie Gourley, senior Arctic official at the U.S. State Department and multiple studies. “Arctic thaw opens shipping waterways, risks to environment,” Feb 25, [] --br

Independently, successful management of proxy conflicts through regional multilateral institutions prevents existential threats
Graeme P. Herd 10, Head of the International Security Programme, Co-Director of the International Training Course in Security Policy, Geneva Centre for Security Policy, 2010, “Great Powers: Towards a “cooperative competitive” future world order paradigm?,” in Great Powers and Strategic Stability in the 21st Century, p. 197-198

Multilateral diplomacy is the only explanatory force behind global order – multiple theoretical perspectives and empirics confirm that we control the internal link to all global crises
Pouliot, 16 —Dr. Vincent, Scholar and Professor @ McGill U, Director of the Centre for International Peace and Security Studies, twice awarded the Lemieux Prize for the best thesis in political science. __International Pecking Orders: The Politics and Practice of Multilateral Diplomacy__, Cambridge Press. p. 254-9 –br

The plan’s __signal__ drives cooperation – the US has a __narrow window__ as Arctic Council leaders to __lock in cooperation__ – it __spills over__ to solve __South China Sea__ conflict
Dwyer, 15 — Commander William G. Dwyer III, United States Coast Guard, “China’s Strategic Interests in the Arctic,” NDU Press 3rd Place Paper, United States Army War College, Joint Force Quarterly, NDU Press, [], p. 18-20

Neg: Past 1NC: Rising Expectations, Japan DA, Consult Japan CP, Elections DA Past 2NR: Rising Expectations, Japan DA, Consult Japan CP