HJPPConnorWilliam

**__ Transition – 1AC __**
 * __ 1AC Cuba __**
 * Contention one is transition**
 * Cuban reforms are inevitable but the loss of US investment risks economic and social collapse – offering normal trade relations is vital**
 * Ashby 13** (Timothy, Senior Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, He served in the U.S. Commerce Department's International Trade Administration as Director of the Office of Mexico and the Caribbean and acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of Commerce for the Western Hemisphere, "Preserving Stability in Cuba After Normalizing Relations with the United States – The Importance of Trading with State-Owned Enterprises", 3/29/13, Council on Hemispheric Affairs, http://www.coha.org/preserving-stability-in-cuba-timothy-ashby/)

Cuba under Raúl Castro has entered a new period of economic, social, and AND -way trade must include both Cuba’s private sector as well as SOEs.
 * The unconditional offer of normal trade relations fosters a stable transition**
 * Koenig 10** – US Army Colonel, paper submitted for a Masters in Strategic Studies at the US Army War College (Lance, “Time for a New Cuba Policy” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA518130)

The option with the greatest possibility of success and reward for the United States is AND guides her onto a path that will benefit the nations of the Americas.
 * Cuban instability destroys the global war on terror and makes conflicts in hotspots around the globe more likely**
 * Gorrell 5** - Lieutenant Colonel, US Army, paper submitted for the USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT (Tim, “CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS?” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074)
 * GWOT = Global War on Terrorism

Regardless of the succession, under the current U.S. policy, Cuba’s AND in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro Cuba?
 * Those escalate to global nuclear war**
 * Bosco 6** (David, Senior Editor – Foreign Policy Magazine, “Could This Be The Start of WWIII?”, Los Angeles Times, 7-23, Lexis)

The understanding that small but violent acts can spark global conflagration is etched into the AND not even a hint that France, Russia or China would respond militarily.
 * Independently, the embargo itself overstretches the war on terror**
 * Johnson 10** – Andy Johnson is a director in the national security program at The Third Way (“End the Embargo of Cuba”, The National Security Program, 9/6/10, http://content.thirdway.org/publications/326/Third_Way_Memo_-_End_the_Embargo_of_Cuba.pdf)

Keeping the embargo in place requires that the US government devote time and resources to AND in the Western Hemisphere bureau to initiate a new path for engaging Cuba.
 * Threats are increasing now – only a more effective war on terror solves**
 * Clark 13** - Bruce Clarke is a retired Army Colonel with extensive strategic, operational and tactical experience. He is widely published on a myriad of strategic and operational subjects. Immediately prior to his retirement from the Army, Colonel Clarke was the Director of US National Security Studies at the US Army War College(Bruce, The Examiner, “ The end to the war on terrorism--really?” 5/28, http://www.examiner.com/article/the-end-to-the-war-on-terrorism-really)

I have been struck by the response to what my liberal friends call President Obama’s AND , Hezbollah or Iran's Revolutionary Guards will use them when they get them.
 * This risks a massive global nuclear war**
 * Ayson 10** (Robert, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies – Victoria University of Wellington, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects”, Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 33(7), July, InformaWorld)

But these two nuclear worlds—a non-state actor nuclear attack and a AND be admitted that any preemption would probably still meet with a devastating response. **__ Multilateralism – 1AC __**
 * Contention two is multilateralism**
 * US leadership is unsustainable without a highly visible ** **commitment to multilateralism**
 * Lake 10** **–** Professor of Social Sciences, distinguished professor of political science at UC San Diego (David A., “Making America Safe for the World: Multilateralism and the Rehabilitation of US authority”, http://dss.ucsd.edu/~dlake/documents/LakeMakingAmericaSafe.pdf)

The safeguarding of US authority requires multilateralism that is broader and certainly deeper than in AND own self-interest, lead the way to a new world order.
 * Only the plan resolves the rallying cry for anti-Americanism**
 * Perez 10** ­– JD, Yale Law (David, “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U.S. State Department” 13 Harv. Latino L. Rev. 187, Spring, lexis)

Conclusion For fifty years the Castro regime has ruled Cuba with an iron fist. AND eventually be used as a stepping-stone towards the normalization of relations.
 * The plan creates a credible model ** **for multilateral conflict resolution – spills over to the Middle East and Kashmir**
 * Dickerson 10** – Lieutenant Colonel, US Army, paper submitted in fulfillment of a Master of Strategic Studies Degree at the US Army War College (Sergio M, “UNITED STATES SECURITY STRATEGY TOWARDS CUBA,” 1/14/10, http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a518053.pdf)//SJF

At the international political level, President Obama sees resuming relations with Cuba as a AND decline in the greater global order bringing true peace for years to come.

The embargo is the only barrier to effective multilateralism – overcomes any alt causes – facilitates re-engagement with the UN
Williams, 9 – (Erasmus, “St. Kitts and Nevis votes to end Cuba embargo”, 30 October, 2009, http://m.sknvibes.com/news/newsdetails.cfm/11840)//SP The 192-Member Assembly in its resolution urged the lifting of stiff commercial, AND 1948, it was classified as an act of genocide, he added.
 * Middle East War escalates – causes extinction**
 * Stirling 11** (The Earl of Stirling, Governor and Lord Lieutenant of Canada, Lord High Admiral of Nova Scotia, B.Sc. in Political Science and History, M.A. in European Studies, “General Middle East War Nears - Syrian events more dangerous than even nuclear nightmare in Japan”, March, http://europebusines.blogspot.com/2011/03/general-middle-east-war-nears-syrian.html)

Any Third Lebanon War/General Middle East War is apt to involve WMD on AND , fought with 21st Century weaponry will be anything but the Biblical Armageddon.
 * And – Middle East war is highly likely – only conflict resolution now solves**
 * Beck 13** – Middle East Analyst at TheCommentator (Noah, “A nuclear Middle East is doomsday, 5/28/13, http://www.thecommentator.com/article/3633/a_nuclear_middle_east_is_doomsday)

As the Obama administration tries to unbury itself from snowballing scandals, my apocalyptic thriller AND , knowing that it’s not my imagination this time, is far worse.
 * Nuclear conflict** **over Kashmir is inevitable absent new international action**
 * Zargar 13** – Middle East reporter, Greater Kashmir News (Abdul Majid, “Kashmir Vs Global Community,” 6/7/13, http://www.greaterkashmir.com/news/2013/Jun/8/kashmir-vs-global-community-57.asp)

Normal relations between India and Pakistan offer tremendous benefits & incentives to the global community AND may take only minutes for the whole world to suffer & suffer irretrievably.

IndoPak war causes miscalc – escalates to nuclear war
The Economist 11 (“A rivalry that threatens the world,” 5/19/11, http://www.economist.com/node/18712274)//SJF

Armed and dangerous To Indians Pakistan's existential fears are exaggerated, blown up by the AND border incursion could swiftly escalate into something very much bigger and more lethal.

Water disputes make escalation uniquely probable

 * Overdorf 9** – Indian analyst for GlobalPost (Jason, “The coming war for water,” 9/21/9, http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/india/090731/the-coming-war-water?page=0,1)

These troop movements are indeed a constant part of daily life in Indian-controlled AND new dam in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir with the help of the Chinese.
 * Only the plan’s re-engagement with institutions like the UN facilitates solutions – without multilateral instititutions their impacts are inevitable**
 * Tharoor 3** **–** Minister of State for Human Resources Development (Shashi, “Why America Still Needs the United Nations”, p. 67)

The UN's relevance does not stand or fall on its conduct on any one issue AND provided a framework for them to work in partnership with the United States.
 * Multilateralism checks the worst abuses and conflict resolution solves inevitable extinction through space colonization**
 * Masciulli 11** — Professor of Political Science at St Thomas University (Joseph, “The Governance Challenge for Global Political and Technoscientific Leaders in an Era of Globalization and Globalizing Technologies,” Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society February 2011 vol. 31 no. 1 pg. 3-5)

In this dangerous world, if people are to have their human dignity recognized and AND survival and security to their longer term agendas. Pg. 4-5
 * And – It’s key to solve warming**


 * Hague 10** (William Hague, Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs and Member of Parliament for Richmond, United Kingdom, “The Diplomacy of Climate Change,” 9/27/10)

A world that is failing to respond to climate change is one in which the AND It's business that best understands the incentives needed to help us all prosper.
 * Multilateralism is the only avenue for solvency**
 * Lee 10** – Research Director, Energy, Environment and Resource Governance at Chatham House (Bernice, “The United States and climate change: from process to action,” 2-23, http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/files/16489_us0510_lee_grubb.pdf)

Despite the crucial importance of national and regional initiatives, the world ultimately cannot solve AND mediator on the transatlantic divide; and a resurgent Russia remained largely apart.
 * Accelerating climate change leads to extinction – we must quicken reductions now**
 * Mazo 10** (Jeffrey, Ph.D. in Paleoclimatology – UCLA, Managing Editor – Survival, and Research Fellow for Environmental Security and Science Policy –International Institute for Strategic Studies, “Climate Conflict: How global warming threatens security and what to do about it”, pg. 122, March)

The best estimates for global warming to the end of the century range from 2 AND adaptation to these extremes would mean profound social, cultural and political changes.
 * Warming is real and anthropogenic**
 * Anderegg 10** (William, PhD Candidate @ Stanford in Biology, “Expert credibility in climate change,” National Academy of Sciences, p. 12107-12109)

Preliminary reviews of scientific literature and surveys of cli- mate scientists indicate striking agreement AND discussions in media, policy, and public forums regarding anthropogenic climate change.
 * Warming is not inevitable – every increment of CO2 is key**
 * Matthews 13** (H. Damon Matthews and Susan Solomon, Associate Professor and 2009/2010 University Research Fellow in the Department of Geography Planning and Environment at Concordia and an atmospheric chemist, working for most of her career at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “Irreversible does not mean unavoidable”, 4-26, http://www.sciencemag.org/content/340/6131/438.full.pdf?keytype=ref&siteid=sci&ijkey=X0PL7KHfd9%2FH6)

Understanding how decreases in CO2 emissions would affect global temperatures has been hampered in recent AND the same time scale as the political decisions that lead to the reductions.
 * Any step short of unconditional removal means we won’t create the same symbol of multilateralism**
 * Vivanco 6** - LLM from Harvard Law School, Americas director of Humans Rights Watch (Jose Miguel, “Restraint, not force, will bring change to Cuba”, humans rights watch, 12/22/06, http://www.hrw.org/news/2006/12/21/restraint-not-force-will-bring-change-cuba, google scholar)

This reluctance would be understandable but misguided. Most Cubans do want change. If AND when the US stops acting like Goliath will Cuba stop looking like David.
 * Our multilateral commitment solves geopolitical wars**
 * Kupchan 11** – *Professor of international affairs at Georgetown University; **Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, (Charles and Whitney, “The false promise of unipolarity: constraints on the exercise of American power,” Cambridge Review of International Affairs, June 2011, Vol. 24, No. 2, p. 165-173)//Bwang

These examples aside, Brooks and Wohlforth also fail to address another important pathway through AND and toleration of political diversity rather than the normative hegemony of the West.

Plan – 1AC

 * The United States federal government should normalize its economic relations with Cuba.**

The appointment of Diaz-Canel won’t instigate reforms
Nelson 13 – CBS4 News member, National Association of Television Arts and Sciences (Gary, Miami CBS News, “Miguel Diaz-Canel: Cuba’s Next President?”, Feb 26, 2013, [])//EK

“He may be the guy,” said University of Miami’s Professor Jaime Suchlicki on AND in that atmosphere. He is a Marxist/Leninist,” Suchlicki said.

Cuban economic growth has direct positive benefits for the Cuban people
Báez, 4 – Ph.D. and professor of sociology at the University of Puerto Rico (Antonio, “State Resistance to Globalisation in Cuba”, Pluto Press, pg. 159)//eek

Clearly, there exists a correlation between economic growth and social development in Cuba. AND workers that any developing country can provide (Lage Dávila, 1996)

Neoliberalism is empirically the chief pacifying and stabilizing force in Latin America
Parish 02 -- (Randall and Mark, “Kantian Liberalism and the Collective Defense of Democracy in Latin America”, Journal of Peace Research 39:2, 2002, [])//AS We argue that systemic forces are becoming increasingly important in shaping a liberal peace in AND integrated them in a theoretical framework that draws explicitly on the liberal argument.

The aff’s economic system prevents violence and improve quality to life
Both things have happened after 30 years of neoliberalism. The voraciousness of the market AND the fury of the people and compels them to burst onto the scene.
 * Ceceña 2009** (Ana Esther, National Autonomous University of Mexico; Director of the ObservatorioLatinoamericano de Geopolítica and active in the Americas Demilitarisation Campaign, “Postneoliberalism and its bifurcations” //Development Dialogue// Issue 51, http://rosalux-europa.info/userfiles/file/DD51.pdf#page=35)//CS