Bryant+and+Charles


 * Icebreakers***

ZHAO AND YOON

=1AC - Plan=

Plan: The United States federal government should substantially expand non-military heavy polar icebreaking capabilities.
=Arctic Leadership Advantage=

Russian Arctic militarization is expanding rapidly – the lack of ice-capable ships prevents a US response
Mitchell 14 – Jon Mitchell is an independent author for Foreign Policy Journal, citing Naval Statements and Nicholas Cunningham, an expert in the field ("Russia's Territorial Ambition and Increased Military Presence in the Arctic" April 23, 2014 http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2014/04/23/russias-territorial-ambition-and-increased-military-presence-in-the-arctic/) zabd

As the U.S. and E.U. keep a very close

AND

by entering into a military buildup simply to dominate Russia in the Arctic.

Expanding militarization risks conflict among multiple rising Arctic powers
Blank, 14 - Stephen J. Blank is a senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council; served as the Strategic Studies Institute's expert on the Soviet bloc and the post-Soviet world since 1989. Prior to that he was Associate Professor of Soviet Studies at the Center for Aerospace Doctrine, Research, and Education, Maxwell Air Force Base (Stephen, "Enter Asia: The Arctic Heats Up" World Affairs Journal, March/April, http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/enter-asia-arctic-heats)//DH

The Arctic, always before on the frigid edges of the international imagination, is

AND

exploitation of the Arctic "will become a future mission of the navy."

Claims of cooperation don't account for the decline in U.S. leadership which makes great power war likely
Murray, 12 – Vice President of Research at the Frontier Centre for Public Policy and an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Alberta. He holds a senior fellowship at the Atlantic Institute for Market Studies, a research fellowship at the University of Calgary's Centre for Military and Strategic Studies, and a research fellowship at the University of Alberta's European Union Centre of Excellence.(Robert, "Arctic politics in the emerging multipolar system: challenges and consequences" The Polar Journal, June, Taylor & Francis)//DH//

//The Arctic in the unipolar moment One of the cornerstones of America's unipolar moment has//

//AND//

//the structure are very likely to translate into changes to state security strategies.//

//**====Arctic conflict risks a nuclear confrontation====**//

//**Wallace & Staples '10** – *Professor Emeritus at the University of British Columbia, **President of the Rideau Institute in Ottawa (Michael, Steven, "Ridding the Arctic of Nuclear Weapons: A Task Long Overdue,")// J.N.E

The fact is, the Arctic is becoming a zone of increased military competition.

AND

in which nuclear powers find themselves in military confrontation can be taken lightly.

Extinction

 * Vestergaard '10** – visiting fellow with the CSIS Proliferation Prevention Program, researching uranium governance, specialist in nuclear weaponry for DIIS ("Conference on an Arctic Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Copenhagen, 10-11, 2009", Danish Institute for International Studies, *note: the document was released in 2010) //J.N.E

Global climate consequences of a regional nuclear war a certain number of small weapons will

AND

at four specific latitudes (as labelled) (Mills et al 2008).

The plan revitalizes US presence in the Arctic - that spills over to international influence

 * NRC 7 – working arm of the United States National Academies, which produces reports that shape policies, inform public opinion, and advance the pursuit of science, engineering, and medicine (National Research Council, "Polar Icebreakers in a Changing World: An Assessment of US Needs,"** http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=11753&page=R1**) mj**

Economic activity is predicted to increase and move northward as a result of sea-

AND

government polar icebreaking capability to ensure year-round access throughout the region.

US Arctic leadership generates allied cooperation sufficient to check Russia
Slayton and Rosen 3-14-14 — research fellow at the Hoover Institution and co-chair of the Hoover Institution's Arctic Security Initiative AND an international and national security lawyer by training, is a senior legal adviser at CNA Corporation (David M.* and Mark E.**, "Another region where the Russian military threatens to dominate the U.S.," CNN, http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/14/opinion/slayton-rosen-russia-u-s-arctic/)BC

(CNN) — While much of the world is focused on the Russian incursion

AND

a safe, secure and prosperous region in which to live and work.

Perception of Arctic counterbalancing induces Russian cooperation – strength is key
Dowd 11 – Senior Fellow of the Fraser Institute and Senior Editor of Fraser Insight. In addition to conducting research into defence and security, he has contributed to the Institute's Economic Freedom of North America Annual Report. Dowd is an adjunct professor at Butler University; was as a founding member of the Sagamore Institute leadership team, where he continues to hold a senior fellow post; and was director of Hudson Institute's corporate headquarters (Alan, "The Big Chill: Energy Needs Fueling Tensions in the Arctic," https://www.fraserinstitute.org/research-news/news/display.aspx?id=2147483979) zabd

The United States devotes much of its diplomatic and military energies to the Middle East

AND

Congress "to start building infrastructure up there" (Joling and Papp).

=Warming Advantage=

Arctic research is necessary to understand climate change and adopt best mitigation and survival strategies

 * NRC 11 (Committee on Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean; National Research Council, Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, The National Academies Press, 2011. Pg online at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13169)**

Antarctica and the surrounding Southern Ocean remains one of the world's last frontiers. Covering

AND

, an important step toward understanding present climate and predicting future climate change.

Our future ability to predict and solve global warming is dependent upon icebreakers, the US NEEDS to invest to maintain leadership because there is NO alternative
NRC et al 07 (National Research Council, Polar Research Board,Marine Board (MB)Earth and Life Studies (DELS)Transportation Research Board, Committee on the Assessment of U.S. Coast Guard , " Polar Icebreakers in a Changing World:An Assessment of U.S. Needs." Online PDF at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11753#orgs )

This chapter has highlighted some of the most exciting polar research being conducted today.

AND

Icebreaker Coordinating Committee (AICC) and supports the continuation of this successful relationship

Climate change risks extinction and ecosystem collapse
Kirschbaum, 3/20 –PhD Environmental Biology in the Australian Nation in 1986, BSc Agriculture, Researcher at Landcare Research (Miko, "Climate-change impact potentials as an alternative to global warming potentials," 2014, IOP Science, Miko U F Kirschbaum 2014 Environ. Res. Lett. 9 034014)//VIVIENNE

2.1.2. Rate-of-warming impacts The rate of

AND

similar to the 'hockey-stick' relationship of Hammitt et al (1996).

=Shipbuilding Advantage=

Shipbuilding low now

 * Insinna** 3/**13** - Staff Writer at National Defense Magazine (Valerie, "Coast Guard Trying to Stay the Course on its Shipbuilding Plans During Tough Fiscal Times") National Defense http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/archive/2013/march/Pages/CoastGuardTryingtoStaytheCourseonitsShipbuildingPlansDuringToughFiscalTimes.aspx //Laura T

The Coast Guard is in the middle of a 25-year effort to replace

AND

confident we're going to get the replacement ships built," the commandant said.

Plan revitalizes the industry

 * O'Rourke 10** - Naval specialist and congressional consultant (Ronald, "Coast Guard Polar Icebreaker Modernization: Background, Issues, and Options for Congress") Congressional Research Service. http://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc29706/m1/1/high_res_d/RL34391_2010Sep29.pdf //Laura T

The status of the U.S. shipbuilding industrial base, particularly the part

AND

in their construction for a period of a few or several years.

USFG must build – general contracting leads to failure – previous Coast Guard programs prove
Brown et al 8 - Associate Professor @ Ohio State

Trevor, "The Challenge of Contracting for Large Complex Projects: A Case Study of the Coast Guard's Deepwater Program," http://faculty.maxwell.syr.edu/vanslyke/CV%20&%20Docs/Brown%20Potosk%20Van%20Slyke%20(2008%20IBM)%20Large%20Complex%20Contracts%20-%20Case%20of%20Deepwater.pdf

One of the biggest challenges facing the next administration in washington, DC, will

AND

buy, or assemble the product, and designing the acquisition contract

Federal support key – solves South China Sea War

 * Crospey 12** – PhD, Senior Fellow at Hudson Institute, Former Assistant to the Secretary of Defense and Deputy Undersecretary of the Navy. (Seth, "The U.S. Navy Shipbuilding Plan: Assumptions and Associated Risks to National Security,") Statement before the Committee on Armed Services Subcommittee on Oversight & Investigations U.S. House of Representatives, http://www.hudson.org/files/publications/SethCropsey—USNavyShipbuildingPlan—Testimony041812.pdf //Laura T

If the Navy's assumption is mistaken that current political leadership will agree to large future

AND

political liberty would benefit for the remainder of this century. Thank you.

China conflict escalates and goes nuclear

 * Glaser 11 –** PhD Political Science at George Washington (Charles, "Will China's Rise Lead to War?") Foreign Affairs, Vol 90 Issue 2. EbscoHost. //Laura T

ACCOMMODATION ON TAIWAN? THE PROSPECTS for avoiding intense military competition and war may be

AND

military efforts and a general poisoning of U.S.-Chinese relations.

Icebreakers key to US economic growth
Bert, 11 - Melissa Bert is a captain in the U.S. Coast Guard and a visiting fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York ("Look North, America" New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/28/opinion/28iht-edbert28.html)//DH

America has a vast pool of untapped resources in its backyard. The North American

AND

nations already there, gaining momentum and market share.

Fast growth promotes US leadership and solves great power war

 * Khalilzad 11** – PhD, Former Professor of Political Science @ Columbia, Former ambassador to Iraq and Afghanistan

(Zalmay Khalilzad was the United States ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the United Nations during the presidency of George W. Bush and the director of policy planning at the Defense Department from 1990 to 1992. "The Economy and National Security" Feb 8 http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/259024/economy-and-national-security-zalmay-khalilzad)//BB

Today, economic and fiscal trends pose the most severe long-term threat to

AND

, hostile states would be emboldened to make aggressive moves in their regions.

***Arctic Mapping** * ===1AC—Plan===

A. Economy—Status quo shipping is dangerous and unprofitable due to outdated maps and data—the plan is key to sustain development and incentivizes greater investment
Sea ice and depth mapping deficits still exist near the Northern Sea Route that could AND Suez Canal, which had more than 17,000 vessels last year.
 * Kendrick 6/28/14**—writer for the Barents Observer, graduate of the University of Maryland's master's program in journalism (Lyle, "Map Shortcomings Could Hinder Northern Sea Route Growth," Barents Observer, 6/28/14, http://barentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2014/06/map-shortcomings-could-hinder-northern-sea-route-growth-28-06)//JG

The plan massively increases shipper and navigational confidence
Arctic explorers may have come up empty-handed in the search for Sir John AND protect the environment, but also to make marine safety our top priority."
 * Davison 12**—writer for Alaska Dispatch (Janet, "Arctic mapping to make navigating Northwest Passage safer," Alaska Dispatch, 10/14/12, http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/arctic-mapping-make-navigating-northwest-passage-safer)//JG

Arctic shipping not cost effective absent the plan—multiple barriers key to effective global shipping, but effective shipping lanes in the Arctic could reap huge potential benefits
Arctic sea ice is melting rapidly, and within the next decade the effects of AND foreseeable future, only be cost effective for a limited number of operators.
 * Humpert and Raspotnik 12** (Malte Humpert- Executive Director of The Arctic Institute, graduate studies at Georgetown University included regime change in the Arctic, energy and security issues, and economic potential of Arctic shipping routes, and Andreas Raspotnik, Research Fellow at the University of Cologne, double PhD, "The Future of Arctic Shipping" October, 11, 2012, http://www.thearcticinstitute.org/2012/10/the-future-of-arctic-shipping.html)//HA

Shipping key to stable food prices, trade, and world economic stability
Mitropolous 5 (Efthimios, Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization of the United Nations, World Maritime Day Parallel Event, 11/15, International Maritime Organization, http://www.imo.org/Newsroom/mainframe.asp?topic_id=1028&doc_id=5415) We hoped to kick-start moves towards creating a far broader awareness that a AND international shipping half the world would starve and the other half would freeze.

Trade prevents war, contains war, and checks escalation—solves all other impacts
GRISWOLD 2011 (Daniel Griswold is director of the Center for Trade Policy Studies at the Cato Institute and author of Mad about Trade: Why Main Street America Should Embrace Globalization. "Free Trade and the Global Middle Class," Hayek Society Journal Vol. 9 http://www.cato.org/pubs/articles/Hayek-Society-Journal-Griswold.pdf) Our more globalized world has also yielded a "peace dividend." It may not AND and less likely those gains will be destroyed by civil conflict and war.

Economic decline causes war
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict AND such, the view presented here should be considered ancillary to those views.
 * Royal 10** (Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal, and Political Perspectives, pg 213-215)

B. Environment— attempts at Arctic shipping are inevitable in the SQUO
The Arctic is currently changing in ways we are still trying to grasp, but AND , geopolitical boundaries, and many other effects of a changing northern climate.
 * National Geographic 13** National Geographic Staff, NOVEMBER 8, 2013, http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/energy/great-energy-challenge/big-energy-question/arctic-what-do-we-need-to-know/)//HA

But absent effective charts, current shipping risks environmental catastrophe—navigation capabilities are key to cooperation and disaster response
2. Development of Arctic maritime infrastructure to support safety and environmental protection While the AND (SAR) capability, salvage capacity, and emergency pollution response. 6
 * ICS 14** (INTERNATIONAL CHAMBER OF SHIPPING (ICS), "Arctic Shipping Position Paper" 2014, http://www.ics-shipping.org/docs/default-source/resources/policy-tools/ics-position-paper-on-arctic-shipping.pdf?sfvrsn=12)//HA

Biodiversity hotspots key to global biodiversity
The Arctic contribution to global biodiversity is significant. Although the Arctic has relatively few AND year in order to take advantage of the short but productive Arctic summers2.
 * Johnsen et. al 10** (Kathrine I. Johnsen (Editor in Chief), Björn Alfthan, Lawrence Hislop, Janet F. Skaalvik, "Protecting Arctic Biodiversity" UNEP, 2010, http://www.unep.org/pdf/arcticMEAreport_screen.pdf)//HA

Marine hotspots are key—the impact is extinction
Mittermeier '11 (et al, Dr. Russell Alan Mittermeier is a primatologist, herpetologist and biological anthropologist. He holds Ph.D. from Harvard in Biological Anthropology and serves as an Adjunct Professor at the State University of New York at Stony Brook. He has conducted fieldwork for over 30 years on three continents and in more than 20 countries in mainly tropical locations. He is the President of Conservation International and he is considered an expert on biological diversity. Mittermeier has formally discovered several monkey species. From Chapter One of the book Biodiversity Hotspots—F.E. Zachos and J.C. Habel (eds.), DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-20992-5_1, # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2011. This evidence also internally references Norman Myers, a very famous British environmentalist specialising in biodiversity. available at: http://www.academia.edu/1536096/Global_biodiversity_conservation_the_critical_role_of_hotspots)//HA Extinction is the gravest consequence of the biodiversity crisis, since it is irreversible. AND than 30% of original vegetation remaining" criterion to a genuine hotspot.

Militaristic Russia expansionism into the Arctic now—US policy and support from other Arctic nations key to prevent escalatory conflict
As the U.S. and E.U. keep a very close AND by entering into a military buildup simply to dominate Russia in the Arctic.
 * Mitchell 14** (Jon Mitchell, pursuing Masters degree in public policy, with a concentration in international affairs "Russia's Territorial Ambition and Increased Military Presence in the Arctic" April 23, 2014, Foreign Policy Journal, http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2014/04/23/russias-territorial-ambition-and-increased-military-presence-in-the-arctic/)//HA

First is civilian presence—Arctic maritime transport and infrastructure policies are key to prevent competition from escalating by encouraging cooperation
The Arctic is facing remarkable climatic and oceanic change that is triggering unprecedented opportunities and AND remains startlingly underdeveloped when compared with southern Canadian provinces and other Arctic regions.
 * Higginbotham** and **Grosu** 14 (JOHN HIGGINBOTHAM a senior fellow at CIGI and Carleton University, MARINA GROSU master's graduate in international public policy of Wilfrid Laurier University's School of International Policy and Governance junior research fellowship at CIGI. "THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND ARCTIC MARITIME DEVELOPMENT IN THE BEAUFORT AREA" MAY 2014, CIGI, http://www.cigionline.org/sites/default/files/cigi_pb_40.pdf)//HA

Second is Maritime Domain Awareness—it's collapsing now due to outdated maps and charts, the plan solves
Perry and Andersen 12—vice president and director of studies at the IFPA, research analyst at IFPA (Charles and Bobby, The Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, Inc. (IFPA), now in its thirty-sixth year, develops innovative strategies for new security challenges. IFPA conducts studies, workshops, and conferences on nation¬al security and foreign policy issues and produces innovative reports, briefings, and publications, NEW STRATEGIC DYNAMICS in the ARCTIC REGION, Implications for National Security and International Collaboration, http://www.ifpa.org/pdf/StrategicDynamicsArcticRegion.pdf/cc) One key capability gap that will likely continue to hamper Arctic operations in the coming AND of multi-year ice, well beyond the ship's icebreaking capabilities.333

High tensions in the arctic will escalate due to competition, but the plan incentivizes cooperation
There is ample reason and precedent suggesting that countries will resort to armed conflict to AND threat of a militarized conflict in the Arctic is therefore real as well.
 * Aerandir 12** (Mate Wesley Aerandir Lieutenant United States Navy B.A., "BREAKING THE ICE: POTENTIAL U.S.-RUSSIAN MARITIME CONFLICT IN THE ARCTIC" December 2012, http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a573497.pdf)//HA

Methodological analysis proves our impact
1. Potential for Maritime Conflict in the Arctic Based on the methodology established for AND international institutions and economic incentives in restraining actors' behavior in an anarchic system.
 * Aerandir 12** (Mate Wesley Aerandir Lieutenant United States Navy B.A., "BREAKING THE ICE: POTENTIAL U.S.-RUSSIAN MARITIME CONFLICT IN THE ARCTIC" December 2012, http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a573497.pdf)//HA

US-Russia war causes extinction
The ongoing crisis in Ukraine has made it clear that the danger of nuclear war AND weapons, there is the danger of an accidental nuclear war.
 * Helfand 14** (Ira Helfand, M.D, past president of Physicians for Social Responsibility, co-president of the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War. "Another View: Ukraine crisis puts focus on danger of nuclear war" May 3, 2014, http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/2014/05/04/another-view-ukraine-crisis-danger-nuclear-war/8665185/)//HA

1AC—Solvency
====Navigational capabilities are key to a successful arctic strategy—federal mapping guidelines, standard operating procedures, and vessel of opportunity protocol is vital to navigation services in Arctic waters—NOAA mapping is key, but funding is necessary==== Arctic transits and access to Arctic resources become more feasible, national security and commercial AND research vessel to survey, or contract for hydrographic data in the region.
 * Foxx 13—**U.S. Secretary of Transportation (Anthony, CMTS Chair, J.D. from New York University School of Law, U.S. Arctic Marine Transportation System: Overview and Priorities for Action http://www.cmts.gov/downloads/CMTS%20U%20S%20%20Arctic%20MTS%20Report%20%2007-30-13.pdf//cc)

Only US national investment and a regulatory strategy solves
Slayton 5/21/14—Research Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University and Co-Chair and Executive Director, Arctic Security Initiative (David M, House Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Hearing Using New Ocean Technologies: Promoting Efficient Maritime Transportation and Improving Maritime Domain Awareness and Response Capability Written Statement for the Record to the United States House of Representatives Transport, Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Sub-Committee//cc) With regard to Arctic shipping, the United States should continue to be proactive at AND maritime and Arctic interests and responsibilities urgently and as a national strategic priority.

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