Mark+and+Andrew

Islamic Republic of Afghanistan =1AC #1: Hegemony= =1ac – plan=


 * The United States federal government should implement a phased withdrawal of its counterinsurgency forces in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. We’ll clarify.**

=Heg=
 * Contention 1 is Heg:**

U.S. hegemony is sustainable – your authors underestimate longetivy and exaggerate decline Omestad 8 (10/29/08, Thomas, "Is America Really On the Decline?" U.S. News and World Report) There have been other body … wagers on others as well.

=Credibility=


 * The war in Afghanistan will collapse American primacy – 5 internal links:**


 * First – credibility. Obama announced a July 2011 withdrawal deadline, but only small numbers will leave**
 * CBS News 6/24** (Brian Montopoli, 6/24/10, " July 2011 Deadline for Afghanistan Troop Withdrawal: Politics Over Policy? ", [])

When President __Obama announced__ late … some concessions to their deadline.

**The July 2011 announcement destroyed the … of US commitment to Afghanistan**
 * Rubin, 10** – resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute; senior lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School's Center for Civil-Military Relations; and a senior editor of the //Middle East Quarterly//. (Michael, Public Square, 3/8, “The Afghanistan Withdrawal: Why Obama Was Wrong to Insist on a Deadline,” http://www.michaelrubin.org/7033/afghanistan-withdrawal-deadline)

It is true, as Schlesinger … Pakistan, Iran, and even Russia.


 * The plan restores US credibility – ending the counterinsurgency mission will salvage Obama’s Afghanistan policy and allow a sustainable presence**
 * Stewart, 10** - Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at Harvard, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (Rory, “ Afghanistan: What Could Work”, New York Review of Books, 1/14, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2010/jan/14/afghanistan-what-could-work/?page=3)

But this moderate tone gains … government. In his politer words:

=Overstrech=


 * Second –overstretch**


 * COIN doctrine is overstretching the US military and exhausting US**
 * Kretkowski, 10** – Frequently assists think tank in conferences and other work products that aid DoD's long-term thinking about threats that may not be addressable via weapons platforms. Spent six months in Afghanistan working with Army public affairs. (Paul, “Against COIN, for CT in Afghanistan and Elsewhere”, 1/7, Beacon (a blog), http://softpowerbeacon.blogspot.com/2010/01/against-coin-for-ct-in-afghanistan-and.html)

Over the winter break I … a rising power (China, a reinvigorated Russia ).

**Kuhner, 9 -** the president of the Edmund Burke Institute for American Renewal (Jeffrey, Washington Times, “Obama’s quagmire; US should look to its own interests,” 9/7, Lexis Academic)
 * Afghanistan is a quagmire of attrition warfare that is destroying US morale and readiness.**

__America is losing the war …__ evil, welcoming __arms of extremists.__


 * This will obliterate American primacy**
 * Pyne, 9** **-** Vice Chair of the Utah State Legislative Compensation Commission and Vice President of the Association of the United States Army's Utah chapter and a Vice President of the Salt Lake Total Force Chapter of the Military Officers Association of America (David, “ Obama failing our troops in Afghanistan,” 11/7, http://westernfrontamerica.com/2009/11/07/obama-failing-troops-afghanistan/)

Since we invaded Iraq six … US-ally Georgia this past year.

A grand strategy based on …the economic prosperity it provides. =Economy=
 * American primacy is vital to accessing every major impact—the only threat to world peace is if we allow it to collapse**
 * Thayer, 6 -** professor of security studies at Missouri State (Bradley, The National Interest, “In Defense of Primacy”, November/December, p. 32-37)


 * Third, the dollar –**

Bounding Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan,” Small Wars Journal, 10/21, http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2009/10/toward-a-kilcullenbiden-plan/
 * Maintaining a large counterinsurgency strategy will bankrupt the US and collapse global US financial influence**
 * Corn, 9** – Ph.D. from the University of Paris and is a graduate of the U.S. Naval War College, currently on leave from the US State Department (Tony, “Toward a Kilcullen-Biden Plan?

Just do the math - __with 63,000 … the Iraq trillion dollar war__. In these conditions, a//ny// responsible Administration - be it Democrat or Republican - would be justified in taking a closer look. That “endless money forms the sinews of war” (Cicero) is a timeless truth. The question is to what extent does the U.S. have endless money at this particular juncture? Among the numerous analogies made … and Afghanistan at this point. That said, a //temporary// 40,000 //surge// remains a realistic option, but only so long as the White House strategy rests on two pillars “bounding” the counterinsurgency campaign - on the one hand, a convocation of a new loya jirga as advocated by counterinsurgency expert David Kilcullen - on the other, a regional diplomatic settlement as advocated by Vice-President Joe Biden.


 * Economic leadership prevents economic collapse**
 * Mandelbaum** **2005** – Professor and Director of the American Foreign Policy Program at Johns Hopkins – 2005 [Michael, The Case for Goliath: How America Acts As the World’s Government in the Twenty-First Century, p. 192-195]

Although the spread of nuclear … __a fleet of cars without gasoline.__


 * That goes nuclear without economic leadership**
 * Mandelbaum 2005** – Professor and Director of the American Foreign Policy Program at Johns Hopkins – 2005 [Michael, The Case for Goliath: How America Acts As the World’s Government in the Twenty-First Century, p. 224]

At best, an American withdrawal … __large numbers, of nuclear weapons__.

=Space=

Fourth, as political scientist Barry … __ability to command forces worldwide.__
 * Heg key to air and space power**
 * Thayer, 07** – Associate Professor in the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University (Bradley A., American Empire, Routledge, page 16)

The first key implication derived …, Indonesia, Myanmar, or North Korea. =Asia Stability=
 * Air and space power solve multiple nuclear wars in Asia**
 * Khalilzad and Lesser, 98** (Zalmay, Permanent United States Ambassador to the United Nations, Ian, Senior Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States in Washington, “Sources of Conflict in the 21st Century,” http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR897/MR897.chap3.pdf)


 * Primacy is the lynchpin of Asian stability—decline risks war, deterrence breakdowns, and prolif**
 * Lieber 2005** – PhD from Harvard, Professor of Government and International Affairs at Georgetown, former consultant to the State Department and for National Intelligence Estimates (Robert, “The American Era”, page 158, WEA)

Parallels between America’s role in … as a true major power competitor.

Jonathan S. Landay (national security and intelligence correspondent for the Contra Costa Times) March 10, 2000, Knight Ridder/Tribune News Service, “Top administration officials warn stakes for U.S. are high in Asian conflicts” Lexis
 * Global nuclear war – most probable scenario**

Few if any experts think …, according to the Commerce Department.

=Solvency=


 * Contention 2: Solvency**


 * The plan solves – reducing to a CT focus creates sustainable presence**
 * Stewart, 9-** Ryan Family Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (9/16/09, Rory, “The Future of Afghanistan,” http://www.hks.harvard.edu/news-events/news/testimonies/rory-stewart-on-afghanistan)

__The best Afghan policy would …__ -term, less will be more.


 * The plan’s rejection of counterinsurgency creates a doctrinal shift towards selective engagement that can sustain US presence globally**
 * Gventer, 9** - Senior Defense Analyst at the RAND Corporation and a former deputy assistant secretary of defense. She served two tours in Iraq, including a year as a senior adviser to General Peter Chiarelli, the operational commander in Iraq in 2006 (Celeste, “False Promise of 'Counterinsurgency'”, 12/1, http://www.rand.org/commentary/2009/12/01/NYT.html)

An effort to conduct "counterinsurgency" … capable of applying overwhelming force.


 * Restricting our mission to counterterrorism frees up resources to pay down debt**
 * Kretkowski, 10** – Frequently assists think tank in conferences and other work products that aid DoD's long-term thinking about threats that may not be addressable via weapons platforms. Spent six months in Afghanistan working with Army public affairs. (Paul, “Against COIN, for CT in Afghanistan and Elsewhere”, 1/7, Beacon (a blog), http://softpowerbeacon.blogspot.com/2010/01/against-coin-for-ct-in-afghanistan-and.html)


 * Benefits of a CT Focus:** … sway those in the middle.


 * The Afghan COIN model will overstretch the US military and collapse US hegemony**
 * Klare, 10** - Five Colleges professor of Peace and World Security Studies, whose department is located at Hampshire College, defense correspondent of The Nation magazine, and author of Resource Wars and Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America's Growing Petroleum Dependency (Michael, “'Two, Three, Many Afghanistans'”, 4/8, The Nation, http://www.thenation.com/issue/april-26-2010)

Now we have President Obama … increased anti-Americanism and violence.

Peace, like good health, is … sleep; it never takes a rest.
 * Heg solves great power wars - it’s key to peace**
 * Thayer, 07** – Associate Professor in the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University (Bradley A., American Empire, Routledge, page 42)


 * Hegemonic decline ensures global instability and war**
 * Thayer, 06** – Associate Professor in the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University (Bradley A., “In Defense of Primacy,” National Interest, November/December, Lexis)

A grand strategy based on … allies the benefits of primacy.

= =

=1AC #2: Hegemony & War=

ایالات متحده دولت فدرال باید عقب نشینی تمام نیروهای ضد شورش خود را از جمهوری اسلامی افغانستان است. (Same plan text as above, just in Persian)

=1ac – Hegemony=


 * Advantage I: Hegemony**


 * The war in Afghanistan will collapse American primacy – 2 internal links:**


 * First – credibility. Obama announced a July 2011 withdrawal date, but at most only small numbers will leave**
 * CBS News 6/24** (Brian Montopoli, 6/24/10, " July 2011 Deadline for Afghanistan Troop Withdrawal: Politics Over Policy? ", [])

When President __Obama announced__ late … some concessions to their deadline.

**The July 2011 announcement destroyed the … of US commitment to Afghanistan**
 * Rubin, 10** – resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute; senior lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School's Center for Civil-Military Relations; and a senior editor of the //Middle East Quarterly//. (Michael, Public Square, 3/8, “The Afghanistan Withdrawal: Why Obama Was Wrong to Insist on a Deadline,” http://www.michaelrubin.org/7033/afghanistan-withdrawal-deadline)

It is true, as Schlesinger … Pakistan, Iran, and even Russia.


 * Second –overstretch**


 * COIN doctrine is overstretching the US military and exhausting American leadership**
 * Kretkowski, 10** – Frequently assists think tank in conferences and other work products that aid DoD's long-term thinking about threats that may not be addressable via weapons platforms. Spent six months in Afghanistan working with Army public affairs. (Paul, “Against COIN, for CT in Afghanistan and Elsewhere”, 1/7, Beacon (a blog), http://softpowerbeacon.blogspot.com/2010/01/against-coin-for-ct-in-afghanistan-and.html)

Over the winter break I … a rising power (China, a reinvigorated Russia ).

**Kuhner, 9 -** the president of the Edmund Burke Institute for American Renewal (Jeffrey, Washington Times, “Obama’s quagmire; US should look to its own interests,” 9/7, Lexis Academic)
 * Afghanistan is a quagmire of attrition warfare that is destroying US morale and readiness.**

__America is losing the war …__ evil, welcoming __arms of extremists.__


 * This will obliterate American primacy**
 * Pyne, 9** **-** Vice Chair of the Utah State Legislative Compensation Commission and Vice President of the Association of the United States Army's Utah chapter and a Vice President of the Salt Lake Total Force Chapter of the Military Officers Association of America (David, “ Obama failing our troops in Afghanistan,” 11/7, http://westernfrontamerica.com/2009/11/07/obama-failing-troops-afghanistan/)

Since we invaded Iraq six … US-ally Georgia this past year.

A grand strategy based on … the economic prosperity it provides.
 * American primacy is vital to accessing every major impact—the only threat to world peace is if we allow it to collapse**
 * Thayer, 6 -** professor of security studies at Missouri State (Bradley, The National Interest, “In Defense of Primacy”, November/December, p. 32-37)


 * The plan solves – reducing to a counterterrorism focus creates sustainable presence, and prevents vacillations between engagement and isolationism**
 * Stewart, 9-** Ryan Family Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (9/16/09, Rory, “The Future of Afghanistan,” http://www.hks.harvard.edu/news-events/news/testimonies/rory-stewart-on-afghanistan)

__The best Afghan policy would …__ -term, less will be more.


 * Obama will sell the plan as a drawdown to a lighter but permanent commitment to Afghanistan – this resolves confusion over the withdrawal deadline and restores US credibility**
 * Stewart, 10** - Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at Harvard, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (Rory, “ Afghanistan: What Could Work”, New York Review of Books, 1/14, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2010/jan/14/afghanistan-what-could-work/?page=3)

But this moderate tone gains … government. In his politer words:


 * The Afghan COIN model will overstretch the US military and collapse US hegemony**
 * Klare, 10** - Five Colleges professor of Peace and World Security Studies, whose department is located at Hampshire College, defense correspondent of The Nation magazine, and author of Resource Wars and Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America's Growing Petroleum Dependency (Michael, “'Two, Three, Many Afghanistans'”, 4/8, The Nation, http://www.thenation.com/issue/april-26-2010)

Now we have President … increased anti-Americanism and violence.

=1ac - Insurgency=


 * Advantage 2: the war**

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2010/jan/14/afghanistan-what-could-work/?page=3)
 * Counterinsurgency failure inevitable – the mountainous terrain and impossible troop requirements mean the Taliban can hide forever**
 * Stewart, 10** - Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at Harvard, studied at Oxford and served briefly in the British army before working in the diplomatic service in Indonesia and as British representative to Montenegro (Rory, “ Afghanistan: What Could Work”, New York Review of Books, 1/14,

The counterinsurgency strategy and surge … country and its political structures.

= **A large military footprint combined with the perception of an illegitimate government make crushing the Taliban impossible – it can recruit faster than we can kill** = Galston 10 - Senior Fellow of Governance Studies @ Brookings (William, Senior Fellow of Governance Studies @ Brookings, “A Question of Life and Death: U.S. Policy in Afghanistan,” Brookings, June 15th, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2010/0615_afghanistan_galston.aspx)

__Are the basic premises of … and political force in Afghanistan.__

**Pashtun nationalism and the lack of history with a strong state makes combatting corruption or raising a sustainable security force impossible.** **Dorronsoro, 09** - visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (9/23/09, Gilles, The National Interest, “Afghanization,” http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=22218)

In addition, **there is no …** of the discredited Karzai regime.

**Nationalism means that even if the US won every battle it couldn’t beat the insurgency** **Dorronsoro, 09** - visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (2/9/09, Gilles, The National Interest, “Going South in Afghanistan,” http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=20794)

Afghanistan may be the right … any foreign forces ever could.

**Gradual withdrawal while maintaining a counterterrorism strategy allows more effective US leadership in the war on terror and maximizes US credibility** **Chellany, 09** - professor of strategic studies at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi (9/14/09, Brahma, Japan Times, “An Advantagous U.S. Exit,” http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20090914bc.html)

When the administration's principal war target is not the Taliban but rather al-Qaida remnants on the run, why chase a troop-intensive strategy pivoted on protecting population centers to win grassroots support? In reality, what it calls a "clear, hold, build" strategy is actually a "surge, bribe, run" strategy, except that the muddled nature of the mission and the deepening U.S. involvement crimp the "run" option. America's quandary is a reminder that … deep-rooted military-mullah alliance.


 * Risk of nuclear terrorism is high – probably an attack will come from al Qaeda by 2013**
 * Hall, 10** (Mimi, USA Today, “Obama seeks front against nuclear terror”, 4/12, http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2010-04-11-nukesummit_N.htm

WASHINGTON — President Obama is asking … used in a terrorist attack" by 2013.


 * Afghanistan is a vital safe haven for al Qaeda – terrorism is inevitable but nuclear risks can be reduced is the US drives them out**
 * Arkedis, 9** - director of the National Security Project at the Progressive Policy Institute. He was a counterterrorism analyst with the Naval Criminal Investigative Service from 2002 to 2007 (Jim, “Why Al Qaeda Wants a Safe Haven”, 10/23, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/10/23/got_safe_haven)

I spent five years as a … physical space it can access.


 * Nuclear terrorism causes extinction**
 * Morgan, 9** - Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin Campus - South Korea (Dennis, Futures, November, “World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race,” Science Direct)

In a remarkable website on nuclear … and suffering in a nuclear winter.


 * A substantial drawdown to a purely counterterrorism presence will maximize US influence in Central Asia and contain instability and terrorism**
 * Simon, and Stevenson, 9** * adjunct Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, AND **Professor of Strategic Studies at the US Naval War College, (Steven and Jonathan, “Afghanistan: How Much is Enough?” Survival, 51:5, 47 – 67, October 2009 http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/section?content=a915362559&fulltext=7132409)

An effort on that scale … considerable traction in the region. Congressional democrats are balking at anticipated requests for more troops These factors suggest that the … has, in fact, become.