George+and+Ian

We run a South Korea aff with - Korean Conflict (2 scenarios) CBWs Strikes and China War - Regionalism - North Korean Proliferation

PLAN TEXT: The United States federal government should implement a phased withdrawal of its ground troops in the Republic of Korea. (the generic plan text that the majority of ROK teams will runs)

NOTE: George might "forget" some of the line-by-line in exchange for Banana Flavor Laffy Taffy and Diet Coke.


 * Contention One is Inherency **

**Printz and** **Doran** **0****6** (Scott A., Lieutenant Colonel, and George Doran, Project Adviser, USAWC Strategy Research Project, “A U.S Military Presence in a Post-Unified Korea: Is it Required?”, [] )
 * Withdrawal of U.S. troops in South Korea is inevitable due to anti-American sentiment and budgetary pressure. **

__A second factor that could adversely impact ...__ __because the U.S. will rely more on the capabilities of allies__ 42.


 * Contention Two is Korean Conflict**

__It has been weeks since …__ to defend its own personnel.
 * Cheonan sinking makes conflict inevitable**
 * Bandow, 10** – senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to Reagan (4/18/10, Doug, “Let the Koreans Take Care of the Koreas,” [], JMP)


 * The U.S. response to bolster deterrence will just increase provocations and make miscalculation more likely **
 * Armstrong, 10 –** Professor of history and director of the Center for Korean Research at Columbia University.. (Charles, 5/26/10, CNN, “The Korean War never ended” [])

On the other hand, __there …__ War, not start it anew.


 * North Korea might decide that it has nothing to lose in the status quo – making more miscalculations likely **
 * Righter, 10 ** – Worked for the Far Eastern Economic Review and Newsweek in Asia, as development and diplomatic correspondent of The Sunday Times. (Rosemary, 5/25/10, Times Online, “It’s risky, but this time North Korea must pay” [])

It is __the lack of …__ quite reached this danger point.

**Scenario One is CBW strikes**

As Dr. Gray pointed out__,__ __Third …__ of the United States military.295
 * US conventional forces encourage CBW strikes—these would cripple combat effectiveness **
 * TULAK 1995 ** (Arthur, Captain in the US army and Master’s Degree in Defense and Strategic Studies, “Tactical nuclear weapons - does the U.S. army still need them?” [])

As a result, today, in the … __ might demand harsh nuclear retribution .__
 * CBW use would result in US nuclear retaliation **
 * SCHNEIDER 1997 ** (Barry, Director of the USAF Counterproliferation Center at Air University, Maxwell AFB, Alabama, and an Associate Professor of International Relations in the Department of Future Conflict Studies at the U.S. Air War College., Future War and Counterproliferation, 72-73)

Absolute and all-encompassing, __ the … __of more destruction to come.
 * US nuclear response destroys the nuclear taboo—this makes worldwide nuclear wars inevitable **
 * GIZEWSKI 1996 ** (Peter, Senior Associate, Peace and Conflict Studies Programme, University of Toronto, International Journal, Summer, p. 400) Calum


 * Scenario Two is China War **

(May 27) -- __ Tensions continue to … would be much much worse. __ South Korea's Response: South Korea is far from defenseless, however. It has a standing army of more than 500,000 and nearly 10 times that in trained reservists. It has twice the population of the North and is a First-World economic power with huge industrial capacity, while North Korea is an economic backwater where much of the population is malnourished. In any protracted conflict, these would be huge advantages. What's more, the DMZ is heavily mined, and the border area is hilly (even mountainous along the East Coast) and offers natural defensive positions. International Actors: Alliances haven't changed … by these postwar social challenges.
 * War will result in CBW use and draw in both the U.S. and China and push Taiwan to declare independence **
 * Watcher, 10 ** ** (5/27/10, **** Paul Watcher, writer for aol. http://www.aolnews.com/world/article/south-korea-vs-north-korea-what-another-korean-war-would-look-like/19491485) **

Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United States of America ”, []] __ A war between China, Taiwan … __ be considered in this study.
 * Global nuclear war **
 * Hunkovic 09 ** American Military University [Lee J, 2009, “The Chinese-Taiwanese Conflict

**Contention Three is Regionalism**

At the conclusion of the … a strong, independent East Asian Union.
 * U.S. alliance relationships are unsustainable – … and stop major power domination **
 * Francis, 06 ** – former Australian Ambassador to Croatia and fellow at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University from 05-06 (Fall 2006, Neil, Harvard International Review, “For an East Asian Union: Rethinking Asia's Cold War Alliances,” [], JMP)

** Regionalism is currently halfhearted – only a __…__ motivate __sustainable__ regional security cooperation ** ** Carpenter and Bandow 4 **** - * ** Vice President of Defense and Foreign Studies at the Cato Institute, AND **Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute** ( ** Ted Galen Carpenter, 12/2004, The Korean Conundrum: America’s Troubled Relations With North and South Korea, pg 160-161)DR **
 * The security treaties with the … **central and west-central Pacific.

Specially, withdrawal will reduce Korea’s veto of multilateral security mechanisms – yielding a peace system on the peninsula that prevents great power war Lee, 09 ** – Seoul National University (December 2009, Geun, “The Nexus between Korea’s Regional Security Options and Domestic Politics,” [|www.cfr.org], JMP) **
 * Korea’s Option of Multilateral Security … __ form of the U.S.-Korea alliance .__**

Accelerating U.S. withdrawal is key to catalyze a multipolar balance of power in the region and pave the way for an off-shore balancing strategy. Espiritu, 06 ** – Commander, U.S. Navy (3/15/06, Commander Emilson M. Espiritu, “The Eagle Heads Home: Rethinking National Security Policy for The Asia-Pacific Region,” [], JMP) **
 * Can the U.S. live with the … the Eagle to head home. **

Strengthening the East Asian regional security architecture key to solve terrorism, territorial disputes, disease, environmental degradation, and maritime security Nanto, 08 ** – Specialist in Industry and Trade Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division for Congressional Research Services (1/4, “East Asian Regional Architecture: New Economic and Security Arrangements and U.S. Policy,” www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33653.pdf) **
 * __ A stronger __**__regional security organization **…**__ ** will exist in the future. **

Territorial disputes draw in great powers --- causes World War 3 Waldron, 97 ** – professor of strategy and policy at the U.S. Naval War College and an associate of the Fairbank Center for East Asian Research at Harvard (March 1997, Arthur, Commentary, “How Not to Deal with China,” EBSCO) **
 * __ MAKING THESE flash-points all … Japan--or the __ __U __ nited __S __ tates. **

Contention Four is Prolif North Korea will proliferate – US micromanaging fails Carpenter 2009 ** – PhD in diplomatic history from Texas, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at Cato, contributing editor to the National Interest, editorial board of the Journal of Strategic Studies (Tad Galen, Cato Institute Handbook for Policymakers, 7th edition, “54. East Asian Security Commitments”, page 563, http://www.cato.org/pubs/handbook/hb111/hb111-54.pdf, WEA) **


 * __ The ongoing North Korean nuclear … __ technology __ highlighted the __ proliferation __ problem __ . **

US withdrawal forces China to stop North Korean proliferation—this solves allied prolif Bandow 2010 ** (Doug, senior fellow at … __ and economic tools on Pyongyang. __**

 Bandow and Carpenter 2004 –** *JD from … actors or to rogue states.”122 **

Terrorism causes global nuclear war. Speice, 2006 ** (Patrick, J.D. Candidate 2006, Marshall-Wythe School of Law, College of William and Mary, “NEGLIGENCE AND NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION: ELIMINATING THE CURRENT LIABILITY BARRIER TO BILATERAL U.S.-RUSSIAN NONPROLIFERATION ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS,” William & Mary Law Review, Feb, l/n) The potential consequences of the … __ the use of nuclear weapons. __