Ethan+Rothstein+&+Jonathan+Hart

Afghanistan-

Relations adv—1ac

 * U.S-Sino Relations on the brink – multiple warrants **
 * Pennington 15 ** [Matthew – Reporter on U.S and Asia affairs at the Associated Press and previously was an information officer at the United Nations Development Program, “Relations between the U.S and China are getting tense”, June 20th 2015, The Business Insider, [|http://www.businessinsider.com/relations-between-the-us-and-china-are-getting-tense-2015-6//KK]]

WASHINGTON (AP) — __ Tensions between the U.S. and China are growing __ ... __ The South China Sea and cybersecurity didn't get a mention. __

Nowadays, __Sino-US relations have become the world's most dynamic, influential bilateral relationship with the most important influence.__.. __ As a result, the future Sino-U.S. relations are worthy of anticipation. __
 * Sino-U.S. relations are key to solve a zero sum china rise which will cause war- constant diplomacy and cooperation are key **
 * Jimin, 13** -Ph.D and Assistant Research Fellow for the Institute for International and Strategic Studies at the Party School of Central Committee of C.P.C. (Chen, “Building a New China-US Relationship”, ChinaUSFocus, 6/27/13, [])//TL

**Relations key to solve a laundry list of impact**
In Beijing analysts still struggle to define the precise state of the China-US relationship... replicate the bloody history of the rise and fall of great powers in centuries past.
 * Rudd, 13**- Former prime minister and foreign minister of Australia (Kevin, “The China-US 'war' is now on thaw”, Business Spectator, 6/11/13, [])//TL

**The aff provides opportunity for improved US-Sino relations—joint interests in Afghanistan spill over**
Lin 15 - Research Associate, China and the World Program, Princeton University (Dalton, "“One Belt, One Road” and China’s International Relations", Princeton University, 9/15, [|www.uscnpm.org/blog/2016/03/21/one-belt-one-road-and-chinas-international-relations/])//NY The OBOR project faces the biggest challenges in Pakistan on the security front... OBOR project has successfully accomplished its near-term tasks.

**China’s economy slowing now**
Li 6/27 —an associate professor of economics at the University of Utah.Minqi Li has published many articles in the filed of political economy, the Chinese economy, global capitalist crisis, peak oil, and climate change. (Minqi, Why is China's Economy Slowing Down?, The Real News Network, 6/27/16, [] ) // ET In spite of President Obama's optimistic outlook for the American and global economy... __ and at this point especially Russia, Brazil, and as well South Africa, could be vulnerable, maybe also India __.

** US-China coop over Afghanistan ensures success of China’s OBOR initiative **
Xiaochen 1/14-- Chen, researcher at Chongyang institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China, 1-14-2016, "China and US have reasons to cooperate in Afghanistan," China Daily, ,[]

But why are China and the US cooperating to resolve Afghanistan's problem?... it //can bridge the trust gap between Beijing and Washington and help create a demonstrative model for bilateral relations.//

** OBOR key to the Chinese economy **
Wong 15, Deputy Chairman and Chief Executive, The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, (Peter, China to widen its economic influence by “One Belt, One Road” HSBC Global Connections 10/5/15, [] ) //eb In response to expected flat world trade growth abroad and moderate economic activity at home... but China has certainly made an impressive start.

**China economic collapse causes WW3- hotspot for escalation**
But imagine a China disintegrating... In the final analysis, neo-con insanity is more of a danger to the Bush presidency than China. **=**
 * Plate, 03 -** Mr. Plate is a member of the Pacific Council on International Policy, the Century Association of New York and the Phi Beta Kappa Society (Tom Plate, “Why Not Invade China” Asia Pacific Media Networks, 6/30, [])//JS

**China is uniquely situated to help Afghanistan but U.S support is necessary to ensure success**
====Khalilzad 14 [Zalmay – Previous U.S ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the United Nations under President George Bush, U.S. counselor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), President of Khalilzad Associations – an international business consulting firm, “ Why Afghanistan Courts China”, Nov. 3rd 2014, [] ] ====

Last week, Afghanistan’s new president, Ashraf Ghani, traveled to China for his first state visit abroad... __ and thereby cede wider regional influence to China __

**Likelihood of US-China cooperation over Afghanistan is high—driven by common goal of regional security**
Clarke 10/12/15 – Michael, Associate Professor at the National Security College,ANU, 10-12-2015, "Afghanistan: An Opportunity for U.S.–China Cooperation?," National Interest, [] Michael Auslin has called for a “new realism” in U.S. foreign policy toward China...largely ‘hands off’ approach to the security situation in Afghanistan as it pursues the OBOR strategy.

**The New Silk Road lays foundation for U.S.-Chinese cooperation in Afghanistan**
Huang ** Yinjiazi, ** 09/14/** 15 **, (Huang Yinjiazi, writer for Xinhua News Agency, September 14, 2015, “(Xi's U.S. Visit) Spotlight: Silk Road wide enough for China-U.S. cooperation”, [], accessed on 6/21/16) BEIJING, Sept. 14 (Xinhua) -- Over 2,000 years ago, the ancient Silk Road...sustainable development of the region are the key to success ," Yang said.

**Slowdown causes an aggressive China – risks war and undercuts cooperation on a laundry list**
__ A strong services sector __, and the millions of jobs it will create... __ curbing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. __
 * Krawitz 10** [Howard M., Visiting Senior Fellow @ NDU, former Chief of Staff, U.S. Army, “China’s trade opening and implications for regional stability” __The People’s Liberation Army and China in Transition__ – National Defense University Press -- []]

**Engagement key--Containment risks nationalist backlash and Arms Races**
The Unsustainability of American Predominance and the Chinese Response...China’s maritime periphery would become a matter of political survival for future Chinese leaders.
 * Swaine, 15 **- senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace( Micheal, Beyond American Predominance in the Western Pacific: The Need for a Stable U.S.-China Balance of Power, Carnegie Endowment For International Peace, [])//JS

** Multiple issues hinder US-India relations **
Sibal, 16 - serving as the Foreign Secretary of India from July 2002 to November 2003. Dr. Sibal served as Ambassador of India to Egypt, France, and Turkey(Kanwal, “ What to Expect from US-India Relations in 2016”, The Diplomat, 2-9, [] For starters, theUnited States’ Pakistan policy remains... Without a strong U.S. leadership role, progress is unlikely to come soon.

**Affirmative**

**1ac – Taiwan** ====**The risk of a US-China war over Taiwan is high. Blocking independence is China’s __core__ national interest and outweighs economic ties**==== As Taiwan is important to both China and the United States, conflict of interests AND bonds of commerce, trade, and military ties between the two powers.
 * Kuntić, 15** – visiting fellow at European Union Centre in Taiwan, National Taiwan University; PhD candidate at the Faculty of Political Science, University of Zagreb (Dario, “The Ominous Triangle: China-Taiwan-the United States relationship” CIRR XXI (72) 2015, 239-280)

====**The DPP’s election means Taiwan is moving towards de jure independence with US backing**==== The pro-independence DPP has returned to power in Taiwan. Despite repeated warnings AND of the Taiwan Strait and for the benefit of the US itself too.
 * Yin, 6/8/16 -** Yin Chengde is a research fellow of China Foundation for International Studies (“Time for US to Change Its Taiwan Policy” []

**This enraged China just ended relations with Taiwan**
Well before Taiwan held its elections on January 20, Beijing made it clear that AND more damage done to cross-strait relations than either side can fix.
 * Tiezzi, 16** - Shannon Tiezzi is Editor at The Diplomat. Her main focus is on China, and she writes on China’s foreign relations, domestic politics, and economy. Shannon previously served as a research associate at the U.S.-China Policy Foundation (“Did China Just Kill Cross-Strait Relations?”, 6/26/16, The Diplomat, []

====**Nationalist pressure and nuclear insecurity make the risk of war high and nuclear escalation probable**==== Although a number of regional sovereignty and maritime disputes have the potential to sour the AND Party] is finding it increasingly difficult to justify its weak responses .”67
 * Glaser, 15** - Charles L Glaser is a professor in the Elliott School of International Affairs and the Department of Political Science at George Washington University. He is also a fellow in the Kissinger Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (“A U.S.-China Grand Bargain?” International Security, Vol. 39, No. 4 (Spring 2015), pp. 49–90, doi:10.1162/ISEC_a_00199

**Strategic ambiguity risks miscalculation**
If China were to attack Taiwan, would American forces come to the island’s defense AND not to fight hard enough to prevent Beijing from achieving its core goals.
 * Colby and Slocombe, 16** - Mr. Colby is a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. Mr. Slocombe was U.S. undersecretary of defense for policy from 1994 to 2001 (Elbridge and Walter, “U.S. ‘Ambiguity’ on Taiwan Is Dangerous” Wall Street Journal, 5/23, []

====**It’s the __most probable__ cause of nuclear war – strategic mistrust makes escalation likely**==== Taiwan is the //most likely// potential crisis that could trigger a nuclear war between China AND arsenals, such a conflict would be tremendously dangerous and quite possibly devastating. ”
 * Lowther, 13** – citing a CSIS report (William, Tapei Times, 3/16, “Taiwan could spark nuclear war: report,” [] )

**It risks extinction**
But what would that “victory” entail? An attack with these Chinese nuclear AND — destroying agriculture, creating worldwide famine, and generating chaos and destruction.
 * Wittner, 12** - Professor of History emeritus, SUNY Albany (Lawrence, “Is a Nuclear War With China Possible?” Huffington Post, 1/30, []

1ac – relations ====**The US and China are locked an action-reaction cycle of hostility. Negotiating a staged Framework Agreement will de-escalate tensions and create a sustainable path towards relations and cooperation on global existential threats**==== To overcome the structural weaknesses in U.S.-China relations—which could AND conflict U.S. and Chinese military operations and avoid accidental confrontations.
 * Gross, 13** - adjunct fellow of Pacific Forum CSIS, former Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for International Security Affairs in the Department of State, former Counselor of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (Donald, __The China Fallacy: How the U.S. Can Benefit from China’s Rise and Avoid Another Cold War__, p. 152-155

====**Taiwan is the most important __starting point__ to address strategic distrust – plan is the vital internal link to broader, sustainable cooperation**==== More important, however, is that focusing on the quality of current crossstrait relations AND of //cooperation on other issues// and reduce the probability of competition and conflict.
 * Glaser, 15** - Charles L Glaser is a professor in the Elliott School of International Affairs and the Department of Political Science at George Washington University. He is also a fellow in the Kissinger Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (“A U.S.-China Grand Bargain?” International Security, Vol. 39, No. 4 (Spring 2015), pp. 49–90, doi:10.1162/ISEC_a_00199

**Relations solves prolif, US-china nuclear war, and broader US multilateralism**
The foremost near-term security benefit to the United States of developing improved relations AND China could work alongside the United States in maintaining regional security and stability.
 * Gross, 13** - adjunct fellow of Pacific Forum CSIS, former Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for International Security Affairs in the Department of State, former Counselor of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (Donald, __The China Fallacy: How the U.S. Can Benefit from China’s Rise and Avoid Another Cold War__, p. 62

**US-Sino regional cooperation solves mulitalt- specifically true for asia**
A shared U.S.-China vision for regional security would serve to align AND a common vision, and implements agreed practices which strengthen regional stability.53
 * Gross, 13** - adjunct fellow of Pacific Forum CSIS, former Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for International Security Affairs in the Department of State, former Counselor of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (Donald, __The China Fallacy: How the U.S. Can Benefit from China’s Rise and Avoid Another Cold War__, p. 66

====**Multilat on the brink now- declining efficacy of International institutions make now key**==== Rising multipolarity was once thought to lead to multilateralism. The more numerous the great AND short of expectations, as states keep negotiating mostly on an individual basis.
 * Malamud, 16** - Andrés Malamud, Malamud, PhD, is a senior research fellow at the Institute of Social Sciences of the University of Lisbon, where he chairs the PhD program in Comparative Politics, 06-06-16, Online: “ [] ”, Article: “It’s a multipolar world after all! (It’s just not a multilateral one.)” Accessed on: 06-24-16//AWW

====**Independently, successful management of proxy conflicts through regional multilateral institutions prevents existential threats**==== Given the absence of immediate hegemonic challengers to the US (or a global strategic AND  contributed to the crisis; all will be involved in the solution.24
 * Herd, 10** - Graeme P. Herd, Head of the International Security Programme, Co-Director of the International Training Course in Security Policy, Geneva Centre for Security Policy, 2010, “Great Powers: Towards a “cooperative competitive” future world order paradigm?,” in Great Powers and Strategic Stability in the 21st Century, p. 197-198

**Relations are key to stopping nuclear modernization – solves global nuclear war**
Shaping China’s military development Improved relations with China would allow the U.S. AND an arms control regime that //considerably lowers the risk of nuclear war// .44
 * Gross, 13** - adjunct fellow of Pacific Forum CSIS, former Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for International Security Affairs in the Department of State, former Counselor of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (Donald, __The China Fallacy: How the U.S. Can Benefit from China’s Rise and Avoid Another Cold War__, p. 62

**Chinese nuclear modernization means they can’t be deterred and causes war**
Even against a conventionally armed weaker power, such an early escalation of conflict would AND gain by the nuclear modernization might give them added resolve in a crisis.
 * Christensen, 15 –** William P. Boswell Professor of World Politics of Peace and War and Director of the China and the World Program at Princeton(Thomas, __The China Challenge: Shaping the Choices of a Rising Power__, p. 85-86)

1ac - plan ====The United States Federal Government should diplomatically engage the People’s Republic of China over a staged Framework Agreement, beginning with an offer of reciprocal reductions in military commitments over Taiwan.====

1ac – solvency ====**Plan begins negotiations over a Framework Agreement with staged, reciprocal reductions of forces over Taiwan. China will say yes and it will build a foundation for larger cooperation that reduces the overall risk of nuclear war in Asia**==== Taiwan currently faces an overwhelming military threat from China, which uses its forces to AND be more than sufficient to deter and dissuade China from seeking regional dominance.
 * Gross, 13** - adjunct fellow of Pacific Forum CSIS, former Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for International Security Affairs in the Department of State, former Counselor of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (Donald, __The China Fallacy: How the U.S. Can Benefit from China’s Rise and Avoid Another Cold War__, p. 159-165)

====**China says yes to greater diplomatic engagement; it’s verifiable and won’t destabilize relations with Taiwan or Asia**==== Under such circumstances, avoiding future escalating Sino-American crises over People’s Liberation Army AND also not inconceivable that Beijing would permit or provide convincing levels of verification.
 * Swaine, 11 –** senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and one of the most prominent American analysts in Chinese security studies (Michael, __America’s Challenge: Engaging a Rising China in the Twenty-First Century__, p. 359-363

====**Even if China says no, the plan boosts US resolve and reinforces regional alliances**==== The preceding assessment lays bare the complexity of a U.S. policy of AND East Asia, increasing U.S. capabilities would enhance its security.
 * Glaser, 15** - Charles L Glaser is a professor in the Elliott School of International Affairs and the Department of Political Science at George Washington University. He is also a fellow in the Kissinger Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (“A U.S.-China Grand Bargain?” International Security, Vol. 39, No. 4 (Spring 2015), pp. 49–90, doi:10.1162/ISEC_a_00199

====**Negotiated reciprocal concessions are vital to rapprochement and de-securitizing the conflict**==== During the second phase of the onset of stable peace, the trading of individual AND second phase, each state becomes confident that the other has benign motivations.
 * Kupchan, 12 –** Professor of International Affairs in the School of Foreign Service and Government Department at Georgetown University (Charles, How Enemies Become Friends, p. 41-45

====**China is only hostile in response to disrespect of Chinese sovereignty – Social identity theory dictates China’s foreign policy not offensive realism**==== Overall, in all the three dimensions, the very fact that China was trying AND of disrespect towards its sovereignty, just as it was twenty years ago. =Things We have Read as the Neg:= = = Japan DA = = Russia Relations DA = = Japan Multiplan CP (found In the AIIB File) = = Consult Japan CP = = Neolib K = = Warming K = = Pan K = = T-QPQ = = T-Unconditional = = T-Gov to Gov = = Heg Turn—Causes War = = Heg Turn—Causes Terror = = =Things We have Gone For as The neg= = = Pan K = = Neolib K = = Warming K = =
 * Lee, 16** - Department of Political Science, University of California, Los Angeles (James Jungbok Lee (2016) Will China’s Rise Be Peaceful? A Social Psychological Perspective, Asian Security, 12:1, 29-52, DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2016.1140644 SIT = Social Identity Theory