Evan+and%20Michael


 * __South Korea 1AC__**


 * Text: The United States Federal Government should substantially reduce the presence of its ground forces in South Korea.**

__**Advantage 1: Prolif**__

The ongoing North Korean nuclear crisis illustrates. . . technology highlighted the proliferation problem.
 * North Korea will proliferate**
 * Carpenter in 9** – PhD in diplomatic history from Texas, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at Cato, contributing editor to the National Interest, editorial board of the Journal of Strategic Studies (Tad Galen, “54. East Asian Security Commitments,” Cato Institute Handbook for Policymakers, 7th edition, page 563, http://www.cato.org/pubs/handbook/hb111/hb111-54.pdf, WEA)


 * This fuels nuclear terrorist capability**
 * Bandow and Carpenter in 4** – *JD from Stanford, senior fellow at Cato, former special assistant to Reagan, writes for Fortune, National Interest, WSJ, Washington Times, **PhD in diplomatic history from Texas, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at Cato, contributing editor to the National Interest, editorial board of the Journal of Strategic Studies (Ted Galen and Doug, “The Korean conundrum,” pages 96-97)**
 * Although the prospect of North Korea possessing a nuclear arsenal is . . . pass on fissile material and other nuclear technology to either transnational actors or to rogue states.”122**

The impact is global nuclear war Speice in 6 **(Patrick, J.D. Candidate 2006, Marshall-Wythe School of Law, College of William and Mary, “NEGLIGENCE AND NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION: ELIMINATING THE CURRENT LIABILITY BARRIER TO BILATERAL U.S.-RUSSIAN NONPROLIFERATION ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS,” William & Mary Law Review, February, Lexis)**
 * The potential consequences of the unchecked spread of nuclear knowledge and material to terrorist groups that seek to cause mass destruction in the United States are . . . escalate to the use of nuclear weapons.**

North Korea prolif will include ballistic missiles – they have access to the technology Hildreth in 8 **(Steven, Specialist in missile defense and non-proliferation foreign affairs, defense and trade division, “North Korean Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States," January 24, http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/101748.pdf)**
 * Some experts voice . . . use proven missile designs from other countries.**

This causes nuclear war Mistry in 3 **– assistant professor of political science at the University of Cincinnati (Dinshaw, “Containing missile proliferation,” pages 9-12)**
 * Thus the missile threat is . . . Missiles then under-mine the stability of deterrence.**

DPRK ballistic missiles cause nuclear escalation on the peninsula and first strikes on the US. Anthony in 0 **(Ian, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, “11. Responses to proliferation: the North Korean ballistic missile programme,” SIPRI Yearbook 2000: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security, http://www.sipri.org/research/disarmament/expcon/resultoutput/yearbook/yb0011)**
 * The accelerated development of a family of long-range rocket engines by North Korea in the 1990s has . . . the launch failed.21**

That causes extinction Africa News in 99 **(“Third world war: Watch the Koreas,” October 25, Lexis)**
 * If there is one place today where the much-dreaded Third World War could easily erupt and probably reduce earth to a huge smouldering cinder it is . . . it was moving towards normalising relations with North Korea.**

The threshold for ballistic missile prolif is low – multiple stockpiles are on the brink of retirement, and proliferation snowballs Mistry in 3 **– Assistant Professor at the University of Cincinnati (Dinshaw Mistry, “Beyond the MTCR,” International Security 27.4, pages 119-149)**
 * There have also been negative trends . . . regimes) could collapse.**

US withdrawal forces China to stop North Korean proliferation Bandow in 10 **(Doug, senior fellow at the Cato Institute. A former special assistant to President Ronald Reagan, he is the author of Tripwire: Korea and U.S. Foreign Policy in a Changed World and co-author of The Korean Conundrum: America's Troubled Relations with North and South Korea, “Let the Koreans Take Care of the Koreas,” Huffington Post, May 21, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/doug-bandow/let-the-koreans-take-care_b_542141.html)**
 * What value, then, is the alliance? . . . use its full array of diplomatic and economic tools on Pyongyang.**

Removing US threats is key Today Online in 10 **(“NKorea vows to bolster nuclear deterrent unless US ends hostile policy,” February 19, http://www.todayonline.com/BreakingNews/EDC100219-0000172/NKorea-vows-to-bolster-nuclear-deterrent-unless-US-ends-hostile-policy)**
 * SEOUL, South Korea (AP) - North Korea says . . . agency reported, citing a Defense Ministry report.**


 * Advantage 2 is Regionalism**

At the conclusion of the Second World War... independent East Asian Union.  ==
 * 1. U.S. alliance relationships are unsustainable – Asian powers should develop a regional security strategy that does not rely on the U.S. – solves multiple avenues for conflict**
 * Francis, 06** – former Australian Ambassador to Croatia and fellow at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University from 05-06 (Fall 2006, Neil, Harvard International Review, “For an East Asian Union: Rethinking Asia's Cold War Alliances,” [], JMP)

Second, __ a multilateral security arrangement in Northeast Asia is ... the U.S.-Korea alliance.__
 * 2. Withdrawal will reduce Korea’s veto of multilateral security mechanisms – prevents great power war**
 * Lee, 09** – Seoul National University (December 2009, Geun, “The Nexus between Korea’s Regional Security Options and Domestic Politics,” [|www.cfr.org], JMP)

__A stronger ** regional security organization **__ ... policy makers in Asian countries. 
 * 3. East Asian regional security architecture solves terrorism and territorial disputes**
 * Nanto, 08** – Specialist in Industry and Trade Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division for Congressional Research Services (1/4, “East Asian Regional Architecture: New Economic and Security Arrangements and U.S. Policy,” www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33653.pdf)

== __ The sort of unintended escalation ... ____the__ __ U __ nited __ S __ tates. After coming to power in 1993, ... new strategies in Asia.  == 5. Economic collapse causes nuclear war Bearden 2k [Tom, US Army Lieutenant, Director, Association of Distinguished American Scientists, Fellow Emeritus, Alpha Foundation's Institute for Advanced Study, “The Unnecessary Energy Crisis: How To Solve It Quickly”, http://cheniere.org/techpapers/Unnecessary%20Energy%20Crisis.doc, 6/12]  == The United States ... The time is now for the Eagle to head home. By devolving full responsibility ... definition of U.S. interests. “First Among Equals,” [], JMP) A better alternative __...__ __ the smoother will be the transition. __ ==   To be sure, __the United States should... __ __conflict is virtually certain. __     Even more important, Washington needs to back away __...__ __economic and geopolitical ambitions.__
 * 4. Territorial disputes draw in great powers --- causes World War 3**
 * Waldron, 97** – professor of strategy and policy at the U.S. Naval War College and an associate of the Fairbank Center for East Asian Research at Harvard (March 1997, Arthur, Commentary, “How Not to Deal with China,” EBSCO)
 * 5. Asian regional cooperation is key to the global economy **
 * He, 07** – Assistant Professor of Political Science at Georgia State University (Kai, "The Hegemon’s Choice between Power and Security: Explaining U.S. Policy toward Asia after the Cold War", American Political Science Association, August 30th 2007, July 27th 2010, Galileo, p. 25-28, WOMBAT)
 * Advantage 3 is Offshore Balancing**
 * 1. Withdrawal creates a multipolar balance of power in East Asia and paves the way for an offshore balancing strategy.**
 * Espiritu, 06** – Commander, U.S. Navy (3/15/06, Commander Emilson M. Espiritu, “The Eagle Heads Home: Rethinking National Security Policy for The Asia-Pacific Region,” [], JMP)
 * 2. An offshore balancing strategy prevents great power wars**
 * Layne 6** (Christopher, Associate Professor in Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University “The Peace of Illusions” p 170)
 * 3. Offshore Balancing solves US China conflict – we have multiple internal links:**
 * a. Arms races**
 * Bandow, 09** – Fellow at the American Conservative Defense Alliance and Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (1/12/09, Doug,
 * b. Transition wars**
 * Layne 7** (Christopher, Associate Professor in the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University and Research Fellow with the Center on Peace and Liberty at The Independent Institute, literary and national editor of the Atlantic, Review of International Studies (2009), "The Case Against the American Empire," American Empire: A Debate, p. 73-74, DB)
 * c. Geopolitical rivalries and miscalculations**
 * Bandow, 09** – senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to Reagan (2/24/09, Doug, “Balancing Beijing,” EBSCO, JMP)

Add all of this together __,__ and __ ... ____There can be no victors from such a conflagration.__  == Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United States of America”, []] __ A war between China ,...__ considered in this study. 5. Even a limited nuclear exchange causes extinction Takai 9,  Retired Colonel and Former Researcher in the military science faculty of the Staff College for Japan’s Ground Self Defense Force (“U.S.-China nuclear strikes would spell doomsday”, October 7,  []  ) What would happen if China launched... heeding by nuclear hard-liners. 6. Regionalism solves their transition wars arguments Kupchan 3, (Charles A., Political Science Quarterly, 00323195, Summer 2003  , Vol. 118, Issue 2 “The Rise of Europe, America's Changing Internationalism, and the End of U.S. Primacy” Database: Academic Search Premier) As this new century progresses ,...in the past. __Advocates of hegemony ..____ great power __ Eurasian __ wars __. __During the cold war ..__ getting its own way. **The pursuit of primacy causes geopolitical backlash – the impact is terrorism and war with Iran, Syria, North Korea and China ** **Layne 07 ** – Professor, and Robert M. Gates Chair in Intelligence and National Security at the George Bush School of Government and Public Service (Christopher “American Empire” C0-Written with Bradley A. Thayer, Chapter 2: The Case Against the American Empire 2007, p. 54-55, MT) In this chapter, I argue that __... __<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 8pt;"> the logic of the strategy of primacy and empire. **<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 11pt;">Unipolarity leads to balancing – states will bandwagon against us – turns their transition arguments ** **<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 10pt;">Layne 07 ** <span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 8pt;">– Professor, and Robert M. Gates Chair in Intelligence and National Security at the George Bush School of Government and Public Service (Christopher “American Empire” C0-Written with Bradley A. Thayer, Chapter 2: The Case Against the American Empire 2007, p. 62-63, MT) <span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;">However, while offensive realism explains t__...__ __<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 11pt;"> dominate the international political system. __<span style="font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 11pt;">
 * d. US attempts at containment**
 * Klare 6,** professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College, 06 [Michael, **“** **<span style="color: black; font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 8pt; font-weight: normal;">Containing China: The US's real objective”, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/HD20Ad01.html] **
 * 4. War will draw in other countries and go nuclear**
 * Hunkovic 9**, American Military University, 09 [Lee J, 2009, “The Chinese-Taiwanese Conflict
 * Heg decline is inevitable – trying to hold on to it causes great power war**
 * Layne 6** (Christopher, Associate Professor in Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University “The Peace of Illusions” p 190)
 * No impact to heg – we can’t influence other countries**
 * Mastanduno 9** (Michael, Professor of Government at Dartmouth, World Politics 61, No. 1, Ebsco, DB)