Sidharth+and%20Raymond

1AC - Inherency

Withdrawal is inevitable, but Obama signaled a shift from the original July 2011 timetable by replacing McChrystal Petraeus.

Riedel, 6/28/10 - Former Obama Advisor (Bruce, Interview with Spiegel, “McChrystal has made a Fool of himself,” Spiegel, @http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,703243,00.html CT)

Riedel: If there is a silver … needs to succeed in Afghanistan.

The United States merely needs to maintain its status as a global hegemon. Primary negative scenarios wrong for why military presence are wrong - staying in Afghanistan will only weaken U.S. hegemony.


 * Innocent, 09** – Foreign Policy Analyst Cato Institute (July 2009, CQ Researcher, “Afghanistan Dilemma” @http://library.cqpress.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/cqresearcher/document.php?id=cqresrre2009080706&type=hitlist, IC)

No strategic, political or economic … and economically than would withdrawal__.__

Continuing to commit to larger military footprint in Afghanistan undermines U.S. hegemony in several ways:

First, public support for counterinsurgency will only last for 3 years. While Obama taking ownership for the war reset this clock, the American public will demand improvement by the end of the year. Such improvement is empirically denied - parallels between Afghanistan and 1949 Communist China prove.


 * Gvosdev, 6/25/10** - former editor of the National Interest (Nikolas, “The Realist Prism: Knowing When to Walk Away from Afghanistan,” World Politics View, @http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/5891/the-realist-prism-knowing-when-to-walk-away-from-afghanistan CT)

The Obama administration is running … to Chiang than to Uribe.

Material preponderance not key – if public support for engagement collapses, then unipolarity will unravel

Kupchan, ‘2 - Professor of International Relations, … of the Twenty-First Century, p. 63)

The second trend that will … resources were to remain supreme.

Second, continuing counterinsurgency efforts in Afghanistan will overstretch the military.

Dorronsoro 10 - Visiting Scholar @ Carnegie (Gilles, “The Case for Negotiations,” May 24th, Carnegie,@http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=40863)

The coalition's strategy in Afghanistan … province, would overstretch the U.S. military.


 * Empirically, hegemonic overreach is unsustainable because it destroys diplomatic negotiation as a political tool - it is critical to understanding recurrent global crises and flaws in U.S. hegemony.**


 * Florig, 10** - Hankuk University of Foreign Studies (Dennis, “Hegemonic Overreach vs. Imperial Overstretch,” 2/6,http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID1548783_code1259934.pdf?abstractid=1548783&mirid=1 ) JB

The theory of hegemonic overreach … destroy your way of life.

Third, large military footprint in Afghanistan skewing spending in favor of defense spending. This unbalanced approach undermines U.S. primacy.


 * Norris and Sweets, 10—**Executive Director of Enough and a research associate at American Progress, (6/8/10, John and Andrew, Center for American Progress, “Less Is More: Sensible Defense Cuts to Boost Sustainable Security,”@http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/06/less_is_more.html) CS

Our current international posture is … in promoting our interests internationally.


 * American primacy is vital to accessing every major impact—the only threat to world peace is if we allow it to collapse.**
 * Thayer, 06 -** Professor of security studies at Missouri State (November 2006, Bradley, The National Interest, “In Defense of Primacy”, November/December, p. 32-37)

A grand strategy based on … __are the equivalent of a blitzkrieg__.

1AC - Afghan Stability Adv.

Adv. - Afghan Stability


 * US can’t win – unclear objective, can’t replace opium, safe havens in Pakistan, killing increases terrorist recruitment.**


 * O’ Connor ’10 –** former executive director of the Australian Defense Council (6/23/2010, Michael, “Best We Can Do is to Pull Out of Afghanistan”@http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/best-we-can-do-is-to-pull-out-of-afghanistan/story-e6frg6zo-1225882965439) HG


 * __This is a war that will …__** protect Australia from terrorist attack.

Prolonging military presence in Afghanistan will only allow Islamic extremist takeover of Pakistan

Kristof, ‘9 - a columnist for The Times since 2001, is a two-time Pulitzer Prize winner (Nicholas D., 9/6, “The Afghanistan Abyss,” New York Times, @http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/06/opinion/06kristof.html?_r=1&pagewanted=print CT)

President Obama has already dispatched … of American and Afghan blood.

Islamic extremist takeover of Pakistan leads to nuclear war.


 * Ricks, 01** – senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security and covers Iraq for the Washington Post Staff Writer (Thomas E., 10/21/01, “Some Fear Regional Destabilization, Retribution Against U.S” @http://cndyorks.gn.apc.org/news/articles/warconsequences.htm, IC)

The prospect of Pakistan being …, an expert on strategic games.

Extinction The foreign policy of the … Fissile Material/Cut-off Convention.
 * Fai 7/8/01** (Ghulam Nabi; Executive director - Kashmiri American Council) Washington Times l/n wbw)

Setting clear deadline solves Afghan stability two ways - (1) ensures credible negotiations between Taliban and Karzai and (2) mobilizes assistance for Kabul.


 * Schlesinger, 10—** an Adjunct Fellow at the Century Foundation in New York City, former Director of the World Policy Institute at the New School University in New York City Governor Mario Cuomo’s speechwriter and foreign policy advisor for 12 years (3/10/10, Stephan, “The Only Way Out Of Afghanistan Is With A Withdrawal Deadline,” @http://takingnote.tcf.org/2010/03/the-only-way-out-of-afghanistan-is-a-withdrawal-deadline.html) CS

What else does a deadline accomplish? **__A … if the U.S. reduced its own__****__.__**