Teddy+Kontopoulos%20and%20Dineth%20Bandarage


 * Plan: The United States federal government should implement a phased withdrawal of its military presence in the Republic of Korea.**

__**Advantage 1 is CBW’s**__


 * Nuclear deterrence prevents North Korean aggression but pressure for US preventive strikes will grow – troop withdrawal encourages regional solutions**
 * Bandow, 09** (Doug Bandow is a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute. He is a former Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan and the author of several books, including Foreign Follies: America's New Global Empire (Xulon) and Tripwire: Korea and U.S. Foreign Policy in a Changed World, “Starting the Second Korean War? Restraint is almost certainly the better part of valor,” Reason.com, Feb 26, http://reason.com/archives/2009/02/26/starting-the-second-korean-war)

The government in Seoul responded with a yawn and Secretary Clinton … the U.S. need not worry about the latest North Korean gambit.


 * American attack on North Korea causes extinction and North Korea CBW retaliation on the US**
 * Chol, 02** (Director Center for Korean American Peace, 10/24/10, http://nautilus.org/fora/security/0212A_Chol.html)

Any military strike initiated against North Korea will promptly explode into a thermonuclear exchange between a tiny nuclear-armed...They would end up finding themselves reduced to a second-class nuclear power.


 * North Korean bioweapon use would spread globally within six weeks**
 * Levy, 07** (6-8-07, Janet Ellen, The American Thinking, “The Threat of Bioweapons,” http://www.americanthinker.com/2007/06/the_threat_of_bioweapons.html, JMP)

Immediately following 9-11, an anthrax attack originating from...and can be rapidly deployed, activated and impossible to trace. The technology to develop biological agents is widely available for legitimate purposes and large quantities can be developed within days.


 * Extinction**
 * Ochs 02** – MA in Natural Resource Management from Rutgers University and Naturalist at Grand Teton National Park [Richard, “BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS MUST BE ABOLISHED IMMEDIATELY,” Jun 9, http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html]

Of all the weapons of mass destruction, the genetically engineered biological weapons, many without a known...adrenaline and vengeance of a fight must not blind us. The game is over. If patriotism would extinguish humanity, then patriotism is the highest of all crimes.


 * CBW causes US nuclear retaliation**
 * Schneider, 97** (Barry, Director of the USAF Counterproliferation Center at Air University, Maxwell AFB, Alabama, and an Associate Professor of International Relations in the Department of Future Conflict Studies at the U.S. Air War College., Future War and Counterproliferation, 72-73) Calum

As a result, today, in the minds of many, the only legitimate use of U.S. nuclear weapons would...an aroused American public might demand harsh nuclear retribution.


 * That destroys the nuclear taboo—makes nuclear wars inevitable**
 * Gizewski, 96** (Peter, Senior Associate, Peace and Conflict Studies Programme, University of Toronto, International Journal, Summer, p. 400) Calum

Absolute and all-encompassing, the prohibition sets all nuclear weapons apart as unique, regardless of size or power. Nuclear explosives...which may well include the prospect of more destruction to come.


 * And, deterrence isn’t sufficient—taboo is the barrier preventing nuclear conflict escalation**
 * Tannenwald, 99** (Nina, Director of the International Relations Program and Joukowsky Family Research Assistant Professor at the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University, International Organization, Summer) Calum

We have recently witnessed the fiftieth anniversary of the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the only use of nuclear weapons...The origin of the taboo is an extremely important issue, but for reasons of space and analytical focus, I do not probe it here.7


 * The taboo maintains deterrence and solves the impact of deterrence failure**
 * Tannenwald, 05** (Nina, Director of the International Relations Program and Joukowsky Family Research Assistant Professor at the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University, International Security, Spring) Calum

These leaders were articulating a view with a long tradition in the history of weapons and warfare: a weapon once introduced inevitably comes to be widely accepted...by reinforcing deterrence and by inducing restraint even in cases where deterrence did not operate.5


 * And, the only scenario for Korean War is if the US attacks**
 * Bandow, 09** (Doug, senior fellow at the Cato Institute. A former special assistant to President Ronald Reagan, he is the author of Tripwire: Korea and U.S. Foreign Policy in a Changed World and co-author of The Korean Conundrum: America's Troubled Relations with North and South Korea, “North Korea: Paper Tiger,” Campaign for Liberty, June 4, http://www.campaignforliberty.com/article.php?view=100) Calum

Yet the so-called Democratic People's Republic of Korea is an impoverished wreck...If Washington could deter Joseph Stalin and Mao Zedong, two of the greatest mass murderers in human history, it can deter Kim Jong-il.


 * Our conventional forces cause North Korea to resort to CBWs**
 * Tulak, 95** (Arthur, Captain in the US army and Master’s Degree in Defense and Strategic Studies, “Tactical nuclear weapons - does the U.S. army still need them?” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA389152&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf) Calum

As Dr. Gray pointed out, Third World armies are seeking equalizers to defeat Western contingency forces...when faced with this actual scenario, chose wisely to emphasize U.S. tactical nuclear capabilities then deployed in the land, air, and sea forces of the United States military.295

__**Contention 2 is China:**__


 * Recent defense cuts crush US heg in Asia**
 * Blumenthal, 09** – resident fellow at AEI (5/1/2009, Dan, Far Eastern Economic Review, “The Erosion of U.S. Power in Asia,” http://www.aei.org/article/100445, JMP)

The point is not that Washington is poised to go to war with North Korea or China. Rather, only by maintaining its role as Asia's security guarantor can the U.S. hope to secure an enduring peace in this dynamic region. It has a strong interest in avoiding even the perception of American retrenchment...A missile defense system must attempt to shoot down missiles at all points on its trajectory. The Obama administration has just undermined that capability.


 * The plan eases the transition to multipolarity – only way to prevent US-Chinese conflict**
 * Bandow, 09** – Fellow at the American Conservative Defense Alliance and Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (1/12/09, Doug, “First Among Equals,” http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=20570, JMP)

It’s the job of military planners to plot future contingencies, which is why the U.S. Joint Forces Command looked ahead in its newly published Joint Operating Environment 2008. Despite obvious foreign threats...America has been called. The sooner Washington begins preparing for this new role, the smoother will be the transition.


 * Only withdrawal solves war with China and causes a nuclear-free Korea**
 * Garfinkle, 03** – taught American foreign policy and Middle East politics at the University of Pennsylvania and is editor of The National Interest (1/27/03, Adam, National Review, “Checking Kim,” http://article.nationalreview.com/267742/checking-kim/garfinkle, JMP)

NO NORMAL DIPLOMACY The U.S. finds itself in an unenviable situation: one in which it has no military options...Washington, hoping as before to free-ride on us for an outcome that benefits China more than it.


 * Conflict with China escalates to global nuclear war**
 * Hunkovic, 09**, American Military University [Lee J, 2009, “The Chinese-Taiwanese Conflict Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United States of America”, http://www.lamp-method.org/eCommons/Hunkovic.pdf]

A war between China, Taiwan and the United States has the...determine its eventual outcome, therefore, other countries will not be considered in this study.


 * That causes economic collapse and destroys US-Sino relations**
 * Cossa, 98**, analyst CSIS, [Ralph, “Security Implications of Conflict in the South China Sea: Exploring Potential Triggers of Conflict”, http://www.southchinasea.org/docs/Cossa,%20Security%20Implications%20of%20%20Conflict%20in%20the%20S.ChinaSea.pdf]

A failure to peacefully resolve the dispute, especially if it leads to renewed military actions by any one or more of the claimants, would have...minimum, result in punitive economic sanctions. China's economic development would be set back and the credibility of its leadership would likely suffer as a consequence.

February 26, http://www.examiner.com/x-3108-Baltimore-Republican-Examiner~y2009m2d26-Will-this-recession-lead-to-World-War-III#comments)
 * Economic decline causes nuclear war**
 * O'Donnell, 09** (Sean, Baltimore Republican Examiner, a graduate student at the University of Baltimore studying law and ethics, B.A. in History from the University of Maryland, a Squad Leader in the Marine Corps Reserve, Will this recession lead to World War III?

Could the current economic crisis affecting this country and the world lead to another world war...Hopefully the economy gets better before it gets worse and the terrifying possibility of World War III is averted. However sometimes history repeats itself.


 * Motivating Beijing to take a greater regional role ensures its peaceful rise and relations**
 * Bandow, 09** – senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to Reagan (2/24/09, Doug, “Balancing Beijing,” EBSCO, JMP)

So Washington should exhibit humility about its ability to force change. As Secretary Clinton observed, “We have to continue to press them. But our pressing on those issues...and positively—if America and the PRC prove willing to accommodate each other’s economic and geopolitical ambitions.


 * US-Sino relations are key to global peace and warming**
 * Zhou, 08**, Assistant Professor in the Department of Asian Languages and Cultures at Hobart and William Smith Colleges – NY -- Dr. Jinghao, Does China’s Rise Threaten the United States? Asian Perspective, Vol. 32, No. 3, 2008, pp. 171-182

Third, there are many common interests between China and the United States...responsible, accountable, and democratic stakeholder.32 If China moves in that direction, the United States can focus on shared interests such as fighting terrorism and promoting world peace.


 * Warming causes extinction**
 * Tickell, 08** [Oliver, Climate Researcher, The Guardian, 8-11, “On a planet 4C hotter, all we can prepare for is extinction”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange]

We need to get prepared for four degrees of global warming, Bob Watson told the Guardian last week...may be analogous to the present: the warming caused by human emissions could propel us towards a similar hothouse Earth.

__**Contention 3 is Regionalism:**__


 * U.S. alliance relationships are unsustainable**
 * Francis, 06** – former Australian Ambassador to Croatia and fellow at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University from 05-06 (Fall 2006, Neil, Harvard International Review, “For an East Asian Union: Rethinking Asia's Cold War Alliances,” http://hir.harvard.edu/index.php?page=article&id=1586, JMP)

At the conclusion of the Second World War, the United States established bilateral military alliances...prevent domination of the region by any major power. The determining factor will be ASEAN’s ability to provide the leadership necessary to create a strong, independent East Asian Union.


 * Withdrawal will reduce Korea’s veto of multilateral security mechanisms**
 * Lee, 09** – Seoul National University (December 2009, Geun, “The Nexus between Korea’s Regional Security Options and Domestic Politics,” www.cfr.org, JMP)

Korea’s Option of Multilateral Security Cooperation in Northeast Asia The idea of multilateral security cooperation in Northeast Asia is not a recent one. Since 1988, Korea...against a multilateral security mechanism in Northeast Asia, particularly when such an option still maintains a loose form of the U.S.-Korea alliance.


 * Withdrawal also causes offshore balancing and causes multilateralism in Asia**
 * Espiritu, 06** – Commander, U.S. Navy (3/15/06, Commander Emilson M. Espiritu, “The Eagle Heads Home: Rethinking National Security Policy for The Asia-Pacific Region,” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA448817&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf, JMP)

Can the U.S. live with the risk of an unstable Korean Peninsula? The obvious answer is “no.” It is clear that a stable Korean peninsula is more beneficial...It is possible by taking the “let them work it out” (the Koreas) approach would certainly be advantageous to the U.S. The time is now for the Eagle to head home.


 * East Asian multilateralism solves a litany of impacts**
 * Nanto, 08** – Specialist in Industry and Trade Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division for Congressional Research Services (1/4, “East Asian Regional Architecture: New Economic and Security Arrangements and U.S. Policy,” www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33653.pdf)

A stronger regional security organization in East Asia could play a role in quelling terrorism...any architecture can be evaluated, however, is how well it contributes to a resolution of problems as they now exist or will exist in the future.


 * Terrorism causes extinction**
 * Sid-Ahmed, 4** (Mohamed, Managing Editor for Al-Ahali, “Extinction!” August 26-September 1, Issue no. 705, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm)

A nuclear attack by terrorists will be much more critical than Hiroshima and Nagazaki, even if -- and...this war will be without winners and losers. When nuclear pollution infects the whole planet, we will all be losers.


 * Territorial conflict escalates to World War three**
 * Waldron, 97** – professor of strategy and policy at the U.S. Naval War College and an associate of the Fairbank Center for East Asian Research at Harvard (March 1997, Arthur, Commentary, “How Not to Deal with China,” EBSCO)

MAKING THESE flash-points all the more volatile has been a dramatic increase in the quantity and quality of China's...perhaps not clearly understood until the moment of crisis itself, could easily draw in neighboring states--Russia, or India, or Japan--or the United States.

__**Contention 4 is Solvency:**__


 * Plan key to long-term alliance stability**
 * Roehrig, 08** – Associate Professor in the National Security Decision Making Department at the U.S. Naval War College (Terence, "On Korea", Academic Paper Series, 2008, June 27th 2010, p. 143, KONTOPOULOS) PDF

The more difficult dimension here is the political message these changes might send to either the ROK or the DPRK. For many in South Korea, sovereignty and a...likely to determine that their alliance promotes the interests of both countries.


 * Credibility of the nuclear guarantee has survived past withdrawals**
 * Payne, et. al, 10** – Professor in Defense and Strategic Studies at Missouri State University (March, Dr. Keith Payne, Study Director Thomas Scheber Kurt Guthe, “U.S. Extended Deterrence and Assurance for Allies in Northeast Asia”, http://www.nipp.org/National%20Institute%20Press/Current%20Publications/PDF/US%20Extend-Deter-for%20print.pdf, JMP)

South Korea has been the beneficiary of a U.S. nuclear guarantee for more than a half century. Throughout that time, the guarantee...end, though, the U.S. nuclear guarantee has retained its assurance value.


 * Reunification is inevitable---North Korean regime is unsustainable**
 * Printz and Doran, 06** (Scott A., Lieutenant Colonel, and George Doran, Project Adviser, USAWC Strategy Research Project, “A U.S Military Presence in a Post-Unified Korea: Is it Required?”, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA448748&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf)

Yet in spite of the current grim and unpredictable situation on the peninsula, many analysts and political leaders hold out hope for a "calm" Korea - a unified Korea. Though unification has been a long held ideal, especially...currently preoccupied with their own economic and political affairs and are growing weary of the financial drain North Korean creates.5


 * North Korea never follows through with agreements**
 * Kang and Cha, 03** – *associate professor of Business at Dartmouth, AND **associate professor of government Georgetown’s school of Foreign Service (May/June 2003, David C. Kang, Victor D. Cha, Foreign Policy, “Think Again: The Korea Crisis,” http://www.ituassu.com.br/asia_fp1.pdf, JMP)

“North Korea Does Not Honor International Agreements” Mostly true. Heralded for a half century...But perhaps the best evidence of strategic deception occurred in June 1950: On the eve of the Korean War, North Korea put forth a major peace initiative to the South.


 * Japan can’t develop a full-scale nuclear deterrent**
 * Chanlett-Avery & Nikitin, 09** – *Specialist in Asian Affairs AND **Analyst in Nonproliferation at the Congressional Research Service (2/19/09, Emma and Mary Beth, “Japan’s Nuclear Future: Policy Debate, Prospects and U.S. Interests,” http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/09024CRS.pdf, JMP)

This paper examines the prospects for Japan pursuing a nuclear weapons capability...public and elite opinion, restrictive domestic laws and practices, and the negative diplomatic consequences of abandoning its traditional approach is analyzed.


 * U.S. will still preserve deterrence through long-range strike capabilities**
 * Espiritu, 06** – Commander, U.S. Navy (3/15/06, Commander Emilson M. Espiritu, “The Eagle Heads Home: Rethinking National Security Policy for The Asia-Pacific Region,” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA448817&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf, JMP)

Even though we are already reducing the number of U.S. troops in the region, one alternative to the current policy is to accelerate...Asia through strengthened long-range strike capabilities, streamlined and consolidated headquarters, and a network of access arrangements. 30