Andrew+&+Alana

 Aff: Natural Gas
==== Plan: The United States federal government should increase leasing for offshore natural gas production in the Outer Continental Zone in the United States. ====

Robust __domestic__ production is key to __manufacturing__ growth—that’s the basis for economic recovery
Duesterberg, 12 [Tom is Executive Director of the Manufacturing and Society in the 21st Century program at the Aspen Institute. He recently retired as President and CEO of The Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, an economic research and executive education organization based in Arlington, Virginia with more than 500 manufacturing firms as members. Previous positions include: Director of the Washington Office of The Hudson Institute, Assistant Secretary for International Economic Policy at the U.S. Department of Commerce, chief of staff to two members of Congress, and associate instructor at Stanford University. His commentary and analysis on manufacturing, economic performance, globalization, and related policy issues can be found in major news outlets. He holds a B.A. degree from Princeton and M. A. and Ph.D. degrees from Indiana University, “Impact of the Energy Boom on US Manufacturing”, @http://www.aspeninstitute.org/about/blog/impact-energy-boom-us-manufacturing ]

The manufacturing sector has been leading
AND supply give firms in the sector a competitive advantage.



Natural gas production directly correlates with growth and innovation—unique spillover effects
** Carey, 12/13/12 ** [Julie M, Julie M. Carey is an energy economist with Navigant Economics who provides consulting and testifying services Navigant’s unconventional oil and gas offerings include advisory services for strategic business decision analysis, construction risk management, economic and antitrust analyses, investment banking and restructuring advisory services, and expert services for disputes and investigations, “How Unconventional Oil And Gas Is Supercharging The U.S. Economy”, @http://www.forbes.com/sites/energysource/2012/12/13/how-unconventional-oil-and-gas-is-transforming-the-u-s-economy/ ] The impact of gas development AND as a result of the gas sector

Domestic manufacturing is key to overall __resilience__
**Ettlinger, 11** [Michael, Vice President for Economic Policy at the Center for ¶ American Progress Prior to joining the Center, he spent six years at the Economic ¶ Policy Institute directing the Economic Analysis and Research Network. ¶ Previously, he was tax policy director for Citizens for Tax Justice and the Institute ¶ on Taxation and Economic Policy for 11 years. He has also served on the staff of ¶ the New York State Assembly. “The Importance and Promise¶ of American Manufacturing Why It Matters if We Make It in America and Where We Stand Today”, @http://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/issues/2011/04/pdf/manufacturing.pdf ] Manufacturing is critical AND economic and political disruptions

Economic collapse causes competition for resources and instability that escalates and goes nuclear
**Harris and Burrows, 9** – *counselor in the National Intelligence Council, the principal drafter of Global Trends 2025, **member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis”, Washington Quarterly, @http://www.twq.com/09april/docs/09apr_burrows.pdf )

the potential for greater conflict AND could result in conflict

Low natural gas prices key to domestic steel manufacturing
James 12- Correspondent for Reuters (Steve, “Analysis: Steelmakers eye gas to cut costs, drive exports”, Reuters, @http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/16/us-steel-gas-idUSBRE82F12Y20120316)//WK America's steel industry AND a competitive edge in the 21st Century

Low steel prices are the vital internal link to primacy
AISI et al. 7- (*American Iron and Steel Institute, **Specialty Steel Industry of North America, ***Steel Manufacturers Association, ****Steel Manufacturer’s Association, *****United Steel Workers, “Steel and the National Defense”, @http://www.ssina.com/news/releases/pdf_releases/steel_and_national_defense_0107.pdf)//WK The American steel industry AND dependent upon foreign steel

Hegemony solves conflict escalation and great power war
**Brooks, et al, 13** [Don't Come Home, America: The Case against Retrenchment Stephen G. Brooks (bio), G. John Ikenberry (bio) and William C. Wohlforth (bio), Stephen G. Brooks; G. John Ikenberry and William C. Wohlforth STEPHEN G. BROOKS is Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College. G. JOHN IKENBERRY is Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University and Global Eminence Scholar at Kyung Hee University in Seoul. WILLIAM C. WOHLFORTH is Daniel Webster Professor of Government at Dartmouth College, International Security Volume 37, Number 3, Winter 2012, p. Project Muse] US presence gives it the leverage AND does not emerge effortlessly

Advantage 2: China

Chinese energy insecurity risks war in the South China Sea – conflict draws in the U.S.
** Glaser 12 ** – Bonnie S. Glaser is a Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. (“Armed Clash in the South China Sea”, CFR, @http://www.cfr.org/east-asia/armed-clash-south-china-sea/p27883, April, 2012) The risk of conflict AND Defense Treaty

US-China war causes extinction
** Lieven 12 ** – Anatol Lieven is a Professor in the War Studies Department at King’s College in London. He is a Senior Fellow at the New America Foundation in Washington. (“Avoiding US-China War”, New York Times, June 12, 2012, @http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/13/opinion/avoiding-a-us-china-war.html )

China will not be able to AND civilization would be wrecked

China is seeking LNG imports in the status quo
** Zhu and Sethuraman 12  **  (Bloomberg reporters (Winnie AND Dinakar, “China’s Easing Grip on Gas Opening Door to North America Exports,” 6/4/12,  @http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-06-04/china-s-easing-grip-on-gas-opening-door-to-north-america-exports  )    U.S. pricing will be attractive    AND    increased overseas purchases of LNG

Exports would dominate the Asian market and provide China with a stable supply of energy
** Levi 12 ** – Michael Levi is a David M. Rubenstein Senior Fellow for Energy and the Environment and is the Director of the Program on Energy Security and Climate Change. (“A Strategy for U.S. Natural Gas Exports”, Council on Foreign Relations, @http://www.hamiltonproject.org/files/downloads_and_links/06_exports_levi.pdf, June, 2012) Asian LNG market AND be dominant

That solves Chinese energy insecurity and checks war in the South China Sea
** Stone 11  **  – Matt Stone is an Energy Consultant, US Foreign Policy Analyst, and Junior Associate at McKinsey & Company. (“Natural Gas”, The Diplomat, @http://thediplomat.com/whats-next-china/natural-gas/ , February 15, 2011) China's naval build-up AND cooperation on energy

The recent Russia-China natural gas deal doesn’t solve
** Sieff 14 ** – Martin Sieff is a writer for the Asia-Pacific Defense Forum. (“China’s gas deal with Russia faces enormous challenges”, The Asia-Pacific Defense Forum, @http://apdforum.com/en_GB/article/rmiap/articles/online/features/2014/06/11/china-russia-gas, June 11, 2014) The deal between China and Russia AND infrastructure in Siberia

Advantage 3: Warming

CO2 emissions will run away in the status quo—natural gas is the only effective alternative to coal—U.S. development is modeled globally and prevents extinction
Current policies to reduce carbon dioxide AND from coal to shale gas
 * Riley 8/13 —BA, LL.M., PhD, professor of energy law at The City Law School at City University London (Alan, 8/13/12, “Shale Gas to the Climate Rescue,” @http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/14/opinion/shale-gas-to-the-climate-rescue.html, RBatra) **

Natural gas acts as a bridge fuel—spurring broad renewable development
**Ju 12 –** Anne Ju (senior science writer for the Cornell Chronicle) July 17, 2012 “Study Proves Natural Gas Can Bridge the Gap to a Clean Energy Economy” @http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Study-Proves-Natural-Gas-Can-Bridge-the-Gap-to-a-Clean-Energy-Economy.html

Natural gas is a good transition AND business as usual

Only the plan solves global emissions
** Riley, 12 ** [August, Alan Riley is a professor of energy law at The City Law School at City University London, “Shale Gas to the Climate Rescue”,  @http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/14/opinion/shale-gas-to-the-climate-rescue.html?_r=0  ] By developing gas AND renewable economy

Even if some warming is inevitable, keeping it below 4 degrees avoids the worst impacts
**Kim 12** – PhD in Anthropology @ Harvard, former president of Dartmouth, Now President of the World Bank

(Jim Yong, “Turn Down the Heat,” p. ix)//BB The 4C scenario AND mitigate carbon emissions

Catastrophic warming risks extinction
** Mazo 10  ** – PhD in Paleoclimatology from UCLA

(Jeffrey Mazo, Managing Editor, Survival and Research Fellow for Environmental Security and Science Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, 3-2010, “Climate Conflict: How global warming threatens security and what to do about it,” pg. 122)//BB Without reductions in emissions AND existential threat to civilization

Independently, emissions cause ocean acidification – extinction
**Romm 12** – physicist and climate expert, Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress

(Joseph J., “Science: Ocean Acidifying so fast that it threatens humanity’s ability to feed itself”, 3/2/12; @http://earthlawcenter.org/news/headline/science-ocean-acidifying-so-fast-it-threatens-humanitys-ability-to-feed-itself/ ) The oceans may be turning acidic AND recipe for mass extinction

Solvency:

OCS restrictions must be lifted but federal action is key – Congress has to fund DOI leasing projects
**Lieberman 08** – senior policy analyst for Energy and Environment for the Heritage Foundation (Ben, “Listing the Offshore Drilling Ban: A Positive Step in the Fight against High Energy Prices”, The Heritage Foundation, 7/14/2008, @http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2008/07/lifting-the-offshore-drilling-ban-a-positive-step-in-the-fight-against-high-energy-prices)//BD Washington must do AND has been successful

85% of gas is off limits now
** Luthi, 11/9/12 ** [Luthi is the president of the National Ocean Industry Association, representing more than 275 companies engaged in all aspects of the exploration and production of both traditional and renewable energy resources on the nation’s outer continental shelf,  “Let's find agreement on new offshore access”, @http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/energy-a-environment/267089-lets-find-agreement-on-new-offshore-access ] We have unlocked AND OCS

The plan creates certainty for offshore production—balances supply
**Griles 3** [Lisa, Deputy Secretary, Department of the Interior, “Energy Production on Federal Lands,” Hearing before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, United States Senate] America's lands have AND develop quickly

That sustains low prices and ensures adequate supply
**Hastings, 12** [House Representative Doc, Republican Washington, President Obama's offshore drilling plan must be replaced, @http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/energy-a-environment/239529-president-obamas-offshore-drilling-plan-must-be-replaced ] Energy production AND economic security

Nearly 100 new projects are capable of development
Paul **Hillegeist et al** (President and COO at Quest Offshore Resources, Inc, Sean Shafer, Project Director, Andrew Jackson, Project Manager, Leslie Cook, Senior Research Consultant) December **2011** “The State of the Offshore U.S. Oil and Gas Industry” @http://energytomorrow.org/images/uploads/Quest_2011_December_29_Final.pdf If drilling permits AND substantial additional gains

Otherwise, restrictions crush predictability and timing of projects
Curry L. ** Hagerty ** (Specialist in Energy and Natural Resources Policy at the Congressional Research Service) June 15, ** 2010 ** “Outer Continental Shelf Moratoria on Oil and Gas Development” @http://crs.ncseonline.org/nle/crsreports/10Jul/R41132.pdf predictability AND locations