Ethan+Chen+and+Hang+Sun

toc =1AC - Korea=

Plan
Plan - The United States federal government should diplomatically engage the People’s Republic of China by offering to withdraw US military presence from the Korean peninsula in exchange for China securing peaceful unification of the Korean peninsula.

Advantage 1 - Collapse
The wait-and-see approach towards North Korea is unsustainable – delays ensure collapse or uncoordinated interventions, either cause a second Korean war Kydd 2015 – Prof of Political Science at UW Madison Andrew H, “Pulling the Plug: Can There Be a Deal with China on Korean Unification?”, The Washington Quarterly Volume 38, Issue 2, 2015, p 63-77 The U nited S tates and South Korea have largely abandoned negotiations for a policy of waiting AND path for the Korean Peninsula is coordination on the details likely to succeed.

Collapse in the North is imminent Rudi 10/30

Mariella - citing Bruce Bennett, senior defense analyst @ Rand in NEA military issues Mariella, "What will happen in North Korea Collapses," www.smmirror.com/articles/News/What-Will-Happen-If-North-Korea-Collapses/44454 North Korea is a time bomb. That was the thesis behind Dr. Bruce AND and your extended family were likely going to be exterminated,” he said.

The Kim regime is cracking for numerous reasons; collapse is inevitable Gobrey 2015 - senior research analyst for Business Insider Intelligence

Pascal-Emmanuel "Why North Korea's collapse is inevitable," Aug 21, theweek.com/articles/572913/why-north-koreas-collapse-inevitable In this case, North Korea's reigning ideology — Juche, a combination of communism AND people whether the international community has its act together when North Korea collapses.

Collapse opens a nuclear Pandora’s box Spector 2015 - Executive Director of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies’ James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies Leonard, "The Future Impact of North Korea’s Emerging Nuclear Deterrent on Nuclear Nonproliferation," November, 38north.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/NKNF-Spector-Emerging-Nuclear-Deterrent.pdf Civil Unrest The potential for proliferation involving North Korea’s growing nuclear arsenal must also consider AND .25 **__grave for Kim Jong Un and the North Korean people alike.__**

Collapse causes loose nukes and bioterror Lind 2015 - Prof of government at Dartmouth Jennifer, "Korean Unification: Before the Bonanza," Feb 12, http://38north.org/2015/02/jlind021215/ But aside from bulls and bears, there’s an 800-pound gorilla in the AND
 * __fissile material, pathogens, and toxic chemicals could disappear across international borders.__**

No checks can prevent lashout by Kim and the spread of WMDs to terrorists Peters 2015 - Research Fellow, joined the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction Robert, "The WMD Challenges Posed by a Collapse of North Korea," Apr 15, 38north.org/2015/04/rpeters041415/ The most time consuming and manpower intensive operational task AND coupled with very significant manpower //[human capital]// requirements could prove insurmountable.
 * Edited for gendered language

Kim will go down swinging, using CBWs to kill millions Kazianis 2016 - former Exectuive Editor of the National Interest Harry, "Why the World Should Fear North Korea's Biological Weapons," Jan 18, nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/why-the-world-should-fear-north-koreas-biological-weapons-14951 While the world might be worried about all things North Korea—especially its growing AND Food for thought every time the world’s attention turns to the Korean peninsula.

North Korea creates the most probable scenario of nuclear war Averna 2014 - retired Army Officer, Masters in Strategy and a Masters in Diplomacy from Norwich University

Richard B, North Korea: Unstable, Intractable and Under New Management: Options for the US Military on the Korean Peninsula, Seton Hall Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations15.1(Winter 2014): 65-78. North Korea possesses the greatest threat of drawing the US into a high intensity and AND part, in order to counterbalance any US capability already in the region.

Cooperation is necessary to ensure peaceful reunification in the event of collapse Terry 2014 - former analyst at the CIA and a Senior Research Scholar at Columbia University’s Weatherhead East Asian Institute Sue Mi, A Korea Whole and Free, July/Aug 2014 Foreign Affairs But it is a mistake to conclude that reunification should therefore be avoided. Contrary AND Korea and its partners should be able to handle the fallout of collapse.

Advantage 2 - Unification
Through either a carrot or a stick, __China’s leverage is necessary__ to force out North Korean leadership and ensure a peaceful transition Kydd 2015 – Prof of Political Science at UW Madison Andrew H, “Pulling the Plug: Can There Be a Deal with China on Korean Unification?”, The Washington Quarterly Volume 38, Issue 2, 2015, p 63-77 Finally, what about North Korea itself? Pyongyang's leadership would definitely be opposed to AND , the United States and China must first address their legacy of mistrust.

However, China won’t push for regime change and unification absent US concessions – risking a nuclear war on the peninsula Kydd 2015 – Prof of Political Science at UW Madison Andrew H, “Pulling the Plug: Can There Be a Deal with China on Korean Unification?”, The Washington Quarterly Volume 38, Issue 2, 2015, p 63-77 What kind of deal could enlist Chinese support for unification at a price tolerable to AND , China is unlikely to misinterpret the Korean case as setting a precedent.

Relations are at an all-time high, means negotiations will go smoothly Cui 2015 - China's ambassador to the US

Tiankai, China & America: Stay Focused on What Really Matters, nationalinterest.org/feature/china-america-stay-focused-what-really-matters-13704 Despite thorny issues that often dominate the headlines, China and the United States are AND the United States can complement each other and produce win-win results.

It is the only way to provide stability in North East Asia, prevent nuclear conflict, and lift 25 million people from poverty Terry 2014 - former analyst at the CIA and a Senior Research Scholar at Columbia University’s Weatherhead East Asian Institute Sue Mi, “A Korea Whole and Free,” July/Aug 2014 Foreign Affairs The real fear of South Koreans, however, is not that Seoul won’t be AND the Soviet Union and the United States divided it at the 38th parallel.

The current cycle of provocation drives North Korean nuclearization and guts our assurances – a departure is necessary Lewis 16 - director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies Jeffery, "America Is in Denial About North Korea’s Nukes," foreignpolicy.com/2016/03/11/america-is-in-denial-about-north-koreas-nukes/ The whole thing is pretty explicit, leaving not much to the imagination — which AND I shudder to think what Kim will do to get our attention next.

A nuclear war on the peninsula would kill millions, involve massive amounts of fallout, and risk escalation Mount 2015 - Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relation Adam, The Strategic Logic of Nuclear Restraint, Survival: Global Politics and Strategy Volume 57, Issue 4, 2015, p. 53-76 As things stand today, the most plausible scenario for US nuclear use is in AND neighbouring countries. An invasion of North Korea would be all but impossible.

=NEGS=

Neg vs Old ISS

 * 1NC Off-Case
 * Espionage DA
 * Low Level Coop CP


 * 2NR
 * Espionage DA

Neg vs SSA

 * 1NC Off-Case
 * Espionage DA
 * Japan DA


 * 2NR
 * Espionage DA

Neg vs ISS

 * 1NC Off-Case
 * Space Leadership DA
 * Low Level Coop CP


 * 2NR
 * Space Leadership DA

Neg vs ISS

 * 1NC Off-Case
 * Space Leadership DA
 * Low Level Coop CP
 * Elections DA


 * 2NR
 * Space Leadership DA

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