GHJPP+LW


 * Jason and Fred**


 * Aff questions** jason.2898.levin@gmail.com
 * Neg questions** fr3d.wang@gmail.com

__**AFF**__ Natural gas - Manufacturing - Geopolitics
 * 1AC**

1AC Manufacturing The shale revolution is unsustainable —- logistics, safety and extraction —- North Dakota proves —- our authors assume your indicts Hussain 7/27 (Syed Rashid, Staff Writer for Saudi Gazette, "Euphoria over shale gas ~’surge~’ pointless," 7/27/2014, Saudi Gazette, http://www.saudigazette.com.sa/index.cfm?method=home.regcon%26contentid=20140727212780)//JL// //While euphoria over the ongoing shale revolution and the energy independence of the Americas continue// //AND// //in other energy-rich regions - including the strategically important Middle East.//

//US production is temporary and declining —- EIA data proves// //Koch 13 [Wendy, Staff Writer for USA Today, 2013, "Could Fracking Boom Peter Out Sooner Than DOE Expects?" http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/11/03/fracking-boom-bust-us-energy-independence/3328561/]// //Many wells behind the energy gush are quickly losing productivity, and some areas could// //AND// //2012 in the Barnett of Texas and the Haynesville of Texas and Louisiana.//

//Claims of a natural gas revolution are based on false data and industry manipulation – our wells are a bust// //Hunt 2/24—Masters in Biology, renewable energy consultant and owner of Community Renewable Solutions, [Tam Hunt, "Why the natural gas revolution is not it~’s all cracked up to be" http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/why-the-natural-gas-revolution-may-not-be-all-its-cracked-up-to-be]// //Natural gas is the Ron Burgundy of energy: kind of a big deal.¶// //AND// //as discussed in the 2012 Annual Energy Outlook Issue in Focus %2311).//

//Natural gas prices will keep increasing despite flat consumption—that impacts sectors throughout the economy// //Schwartzel, 13 [Erich Schwartzel, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Expert on Fracking, visited Pappas~’ Public Policy Class and was part of a round table discussion that consisted of Barry Rabe, professor at UM and others, really funny too, "U.S. report predicts rising natural gas prices in 2013-14", http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/business/news/us-report-predicts-rising-natural-gas-prices-in-2013-14-669602/]// //The average price of natural gas is expected to increase by almost a dollar in// //AND// //said suggests greater rig efficiency in extracting more gas from a single location.//

//A decrease in productivity will cause price spikes// //Maize, 12/1/12 ["Is Shale Gas Shallow or the Real Deal?", Kennedy, Veteran Journalist¶ Kennedy Maize has spent the past 40 years working as a journalist, analyst, and manager in the private sector and federal government, with over 35 years of that focused on energy and environmental topics. Over that time, he has seen myriad examples of how group think, policy fads, and bad judgment can result in colossal failures, particularly in the field of atomic energy. Maize has seen, up close and personal, the demise of the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, the arrival of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the birth of the U.S. Department of Energy, the failures of nuclear flight, the hubris of atomic earthmoving, the boom and bust uranium market, the birth and death of breeder reactors, and the 60-year wandering in the wilderness of nuclear waste policy. After graduating from Penn State and graduate study at the University of Maryland, Kennedy Maize worked for newspapers in Pennsylvania, New York, and Virginia and the Associated Press in Baltimore. He then spent five years in management at the National Institute of Health and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission before taking a job covering energy, environment, and business topics for Editorial Research Reports, a division of Congressional Quarterly, where his work appeared in over 1,000 daily newspapers in the U.S. during the mid-to-late 1970s. Maize became a staff writer and editor at The Energy Daily, a preeminent energy trade paper, on March 28, 1979, the day the Three Mile Island accident began outside Harrisburg, Pa. Over more than 10 years at The Energy Daily, he covered the nuclear and coal industries, including stories involving the Clinch River Breeder Reactor, the U.S. Synthetic Fuels Corp., the Powder River Basin coal leasing scandal, and the Chernobyl explosion. In 1993, he founded The Electricity Daily, where he was the editor for 14 years, writing about changes in the electricity business, the rise and fall of Enron, the stagnation of the nuclear power business, and the arrival of market forces in the utility field. Since 2006, he has been an editor at POWER magazine, and the founder of MANAGING POWER magazine, where he has written about the Fukushima catastrophe, the emergence of shale gas and decline of coal, and the often ill-advised push for renewable electricity technologies¶ http://www.powermag.com/gas/Is-Shale-Gas-Shallow-or-the-Real-Deal_5188.html]// //In an interview with POWER, Berman argued that the boom in drilling shale gas// //AND// //be gas-coal switching if prices do go much higher than now."//

//Sustaining low prices sparks a renaissance in domestic manufacturing —- specifically chemical and steel industries// //BCG 14 (Boston Consulting Group, "Study: Manufacturers Will Benefit From Low-Cost U.S. Natural Gas," 2/13/2014, Manufacturing.net, http://www.manufacturing.net/news/2014/02/study-manufacturers-will-benefit-from-low-cost-us-natural-gas)//JL CHICAGO — Cheap natural gas will have a greater impact on U.S. AND coauthor. "The energy advantage helps them reach that tipping point faster."

Domestic manufacturing is key to overall economic resilience Ettlinger, 11 [Michael, Vice President for Economic Policy at the Center for¶ American Progress Prior to joining the Center, he spent six years at the Economic¶ Policy Institute directing the Economic Analysis and Research Network.¶ Previously, he was tax policy director for Citizens for Tax Justice and the Institute¶ on Taxation and Economic Policy for 11 years. He has also served on the staff of¶ the New York State Assembly. "The Importance and Promise¶ of American Manufacturing Why It Matters if We Make It in America and Where We Stand Today", http://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/issues/2011/04/pdf/manufacturing.pdf] Manufacturing is critically important to the American economy. For generations,¶ the strength of AND vulnerable to everything from¶ exchange rate fluctuations to trade embargoes to natural disasters

Natural gas production directly correlates with growth and innovation —- unique spillover effects Carey, 12/13/12 [Julie M, Julie M. Carey is an energy economist with Navigant Economics who provides consulting and testifying services Navigant~’s unconventional oil and gas offerings include advisory services for strategic business decision analysis, construction risk management, economic and antitrust analyses, investment banking and restructuring advisory services, and expert services for disputes and investigations, "How Unconventional Oil And Gas Is Supercharging The U.S. Economy", http://www.forbes.com/sites/energysource/2012/12/13/how-unconventional-oil-and-gas-is-transforming-the-u-s-economy/] It~’s an exciting time to be in the energy industry in America. The impact AND infrastructure build out and related opportunities (including both direct and indirect jobs).

Economic decline causes global nuclear war Tilford 8 — Earl Tilford, military historian and fellow for the Middle East and terrorism with The Center for Vision %26 Values at Grove City College, served as a military officer and analyst for the Air Force and Army for thirty-two years, served as Director of Research at the U.S. Army~’s Strategic Studies Institute, former Professor of History at Grove City College, holds a Ph.D. in History from George Washington University, 2008 ("Critical Mass: Economic Leadership or Dictatorship," Published by The Center for Vision %26 Values, October 6th, Available Online at http://www.visionandvalues.org/2008/10/critical-mass-economic-leadership-or-dictatorship/, Accessed 08-23-2011) Nevertheless, al-Qaeda failed to seriously destabilize the American economic and political systems AND world affairs move; the world could devolve to that point very quickly. Geopolitics

1AC GEOPOLITICS ADVANTAGE

Offshore access key to independence —- sufficient supply US G.P.O. 6 -Energy independence : hearing before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, United States Senate, One Hundred Ninth Congress, second session, on discussing the goal of energy independence, March 7, 2006.COMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND NATURAL RESOURCES UNITED STATES SENATE ONE HUNDRED NINTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION ON DISCUSSING THE GOAL OF ENERGY INDEPENDENCE//RSoni// //The Energy Policy Act of 2005 signals a first step in a much-needed// //AND// //. Government policies must encourage, not interfere with, the global marketplace.//

//Energy independence solves global leadership and ensures a stable liberal order —- locks in hegemony// //Mead, 12 (Walter Russell, James Clarke Chace Professor of Foreign Affairs and Humanities at Bard College and Editor-at-Large of The American Interest magazine, The American Interest, Energy Revolution 3: The New American Century, http://www.the-american-interest.com/2012/07/18/energy-revolution-3-the-new-, 7/18/12)// //Energy Revolution 3: The New American Century Get ready for an American century:// //AND// //build functioning international institutions when all parties are relatively optimistic about their prospects.//

//Hegemony deters all conflict// //Brooks, et al, 13 [Don~’t Come Home, America: The Case// //AND// //Volume 37, Number 3, Winter 2012, p. Project Muse]// //¶ Assessing the Security Benefits of Deep Engagement¶ Even if deep engagement~’s costs are// //AND// //disengaged—even as it pushes cooperation toward U.S. preferences.//

//Plan// //The United States federal government should remove restrictions on and accelerate leasing of offshore natural gas in the United States.// //Solvency// //OCS restrictions must be lifted but federal action is key – Congress has to fund DOI leasing projects// //Lieberman 08 – senior policy analyst for Energy and Environment for the Heritage Foundation (Ben, "Listing the Offshore Drilling Ban: A Positive Step in the Fight against High Energy Prices", The Heritage Foundation, 7/14/2008, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2008/07/lifting-the-offshore-drilling-ban-a-positive-step-in-the-fight-against-high-energy-prices)//BD Washington must do something about the increasing price of gasoline, now topping %244 AND them back. Thus far, none of these efforts has been successful.

Gas-only leases solve Burton, ~’6 Director of the Minerals Management Service of the DoI (Johnnie Burton, 14 June 2006, "LEGISLATIVE HEARING before the COMMITTEE ON RESOURCES U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED NINTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION," https://bulk.resource.org/gpo.gov/hearings/109h/28226.txt)//CC// //H.R. 4761 would amend the OCS Lands Act to allow for gas// //AND// //be extremely difficult to administer, and potentially extremely costly for the government.//

//Canada and Cuba prove// //Peterson, ~’6 Rep. PA (John E. Peterson, 14 June 2006, "LEGISLATIVE HEARING before the COMMITTEE ON RESOURCES U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED NINTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION," https://bulk.resource.org/gpo.gov/hearings/109h/28226.txt)//CC I guess Canada has drilled gas only in Lake Erie since 1913. They have AND gas off the coast of Florida, that gas that America should have.

The plan creates certainty for offshore production—balances supply Griles 3 [Lisa, Deputy Secretary, Department of the Interior, "Energy Production on Federal Lands," Hearing before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, United States Senate] Mr. GRILES. America~’s public lands have an abundant opportunity for exploration and development AND from and buy, so they can have certainty about where to go.

Nearly 100 new projects are capable of development Paul Hillegeist et al (President and COO at Quest Offshore Resources, Inc, Sean Shafer, Project Director, Andrew Jackson, Project Manager, Leslie Cook, Senior Research Consultant) December 2011 "The State of the Offshore U.S. Oil and Gas Industry" http://energytomorrow.org/images/uploads/Quest_2011_December_29_Final.pdf If drilling permits going forward were to be issued at pre‐moratorium rates, AND to the nation in terms of energy security, employment and government revenue.

The aff sustains low prices and ensures adequate supply Hastings, 12 [House Representative Doc, Republican Washington, President Obama~’s offshore drilling plan must be replaced, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/energy-a-environment/239529-president-obamas-offshore-drilling-plan-must-be-replaced]

Though President Obama uses lofty rhetoric to claim support for American oil and natural gas AND or support using American energy to create American jobs and strengthen America~’s economy.

Restrictions crush predictability and timing of projects Curry L. Hagerty (Specialist in Energy and Natural Resources Policy at the Congressional Research Service) June 15, 2010 "Outer Continental Shelf Moratoria on Oil and Gas Development" http://crs.ncseonline.org/nle/crsreports/10Jul/R41132.pdf One legacy of congressional moratoria is their impact on the timing of possible OCS development AND restrictions were defensible in the absence of more permanent alternatives for similar leasing prohibitions

//Certainty, immediacy and complete repeal are key to sustained investment// //Nichols 9 (Larry, Chairman and CEO of Devon Energy Corporation, Chairman of the American Petroleum Institute, "Statement of API Chairman J. Larry Nichols on behalf of the American Petroleum Institute at the House Natural Resources Committee// //Hearing on Offshore Development," 2/25/2009, House Testimony Publications, http://naturalresources.house.gov/uploadedfiles/nicholstestimony02.25.09.pdf)//JL We were very disappointed by Secretary of the Interior Salazar~’s decision to delay the OCS AND are often wrongly characterized as "nonproducing" by opponents of offshore development.

__**PAST NEGS - Fred**__

Security Politics States CP Heg Retrenchment
 * 1NC vs. Helen-Raneem (OSW)**


 * 2NR---Security**

T - Development Security Advantage CP (with 3 planks) Politics Heg Retrenchment Russia SOI Dedev
 * 1NC vs. Emily-June (Nuclear Shipping)**


 * 2NR---T**

Security Politics Advantage Counterplan (with too many planks) China Coal DA China Manufacturing DA
 * 1NC vs. Colin-Christina (Natural Gas)**


 * 2NR---China Coal, China Manu, Politics**

China Coal DA Politics Security
 * 1NC vs. Rahul-Ritt (Natural Gas)**


 * 2NR---Security**

Politics (Midterms-GOP Good) T - Its Courts CP Heg Turns (War, China) China Manufacturing DA China Coal DA
 * 1NC vs. Akshy-Emma (Natural Gas)**


 * 2NR---PTX, Heg Turns, Case**

Politics (Immigration-Cyber Terror) T - Its Death Cult Russia Exports DA Heg Turns China Coal DA
 * 1NC vs. Christina-Colin (Natural Gas)**


 * 2NR---PTX, Case**

Politics (Corporate Inversion) Security K China Aquaculture DA
 * 1NC vs. Ellie-Mikayla (Aquaculture)**


 * 2NR---China Aqua**

Ban Nuclear CP London Convention DA Security K EIS CP
 * 1NC vs. Cho-Chin (SSD)**


 * 2NR---London Convention DA**

Tuck and Yang Anthro/metaphors Binaries (case) Afro-optimism good (case)
 * 1NC vs. Cajanding-Stroud (Middle Passage)**


 * 2NR---Tuck and Yang, Binaries**