Richard+&+Ryan

=Aff=

a) economics, and depleting reservoirs
Gopinath 13 [New Delhi economist writing for Yale Global Online (Deepak, “Shale Energy No Quick Solution,” Yale Global Online, http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/shale-energy-no-quick-solution] The speed and scope of the shale-led energy renaissance in the US has AND 345 billon barrels, equivalent to 10 percent of estimated global oil resources.

b) Temporary recoveries only mask structural instabilities
Ahmed 14 [Dr. Nafeez Ahmed is the Executive Director of the Institute for Policy Research & Development and Chief Research Officer at Unitas Communications where he leads on geopolitical risk. (“Former BP geologist: peak oil is here and it will 'break economies'”, The Guardian, January 2014] What happens when the shale boom... goes boom? These scientific studies are not AND even bigger financial mess, on a faster trajectory toward costly environmental destruction.
 * Weijermars—senior practitioner at Alboran Energy Strategy Consultants, specializing in independent strategy analysis and training
 * McCredie—planning and strategy consultant for energy related projects

The impact is price spikes
Maize 12 [“Is Shale Gas Shallow or the Real Deal?”, Kennedy, Veteran Journalist Kennedy Maize has spent the past 40 years working as a journalist, analyst, and manager in the private sector and federal government, with over 35 years of that focused on energy and environmental topics, http://www.powermag.com/gas/Is-Shale-Gas-Shallow-or-the-Real-Deal_5188.html] In an interview with POWER, Berman argued that the boom in drilling shale gas AND be gas-coal switching if prices do go much higher than now.”

Natural Gas Price Increase crushes the economy
Schwartzel 13 [Erich Schwartzel, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Expert on Fracking, visited Pappas’ Public Policy Class and was part of a round table discussion that consisted of Barry Rabe, professor at UM and others, really funny too, “U.S. report predicts rising natural gas prices in 2013-14”, [] ] The average price of natural gas is expected to increase by almost a dollar in AND to go up to $5 or $6 in the longer term."

Robust domestic production is key to manufacturing growth—that’s the basis for economic recovery
Duesterberg, 12 [Tom is Executive Director of the Manufacturing and Society in the 21st Century program at the Aspen Institute. He recently retired as President and CEO of The Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, an economic research and executive education organization based in Arlington, Virginia with more than 500 manufacturing firms as members. Previous positions include: Director of the Washington Office of The Hudson Institute, Assistant Secretary for International Economic Policy at the U.S. Department of Commerce, chief of staff to two members of Congress, and associate instructor at Stanford University. His commentary and analysis on manufacturing, economic performance, globalization, and related policy issues can be found in major news outlets. He holds a B.A. degree from Princeton and M. A. and Ph.D. degrees from Indiana University, “Impact of the Energy Boom on US Manufacturing”, []] The manufacturing sector has been leading the US economic recovery since the end of the AND renewable energy—manufacturing uses 90 percent more renewables than the transportation sector.

Adequate natural gas supply is key to low prices—galvanizes the economy
Pirog and Ratner 12 [Energy specialist in the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies International Economics Program, **specialist in energy policy for the Congressional Research Service (Robert and Michael, “Natural Gas in the U.S. Economy: Opportunities for Growth” Congressional News Service, http://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42814.pdf] Expanded supply, coupled with low natural gas prices, has the potential to contribute AND, would need to be changed to a more market-oriented method.

Natural gas production directly correlates with __growth and innovation__
Carey 12 [Julie M, Julie M. Carey is an energy economist with Navigant Economics who provides consulting and testifying services Navigant’s unconventional oil and gas offerings include advisory services for strategic business decision analysis, construction risk management, economic and antitrust analyses, investment banking and restructuring advisory services, and expert services for disputes and investigations, “How Unconventional Oil And Gas Is Supercharging The U.S. Economy”, http://www.forbes.com/sites/energysource/2012/12/13/how-unconventional-oil-and-gas-is-transforming-the-u-s-economy/] It’s an exciting time to be in the energy industry in America. The impact AND infrastructure build out and related opportunities (including both direct and indirect jobs).

Domestic manufacturing is key to overall resilience
Ettlinger, 11 [Michael, Vice President for Economic Policy at the Center forAmerican Progress Prior to joining the Center, he spent six years at the EconomicPolicy Institute directing the Economic Analysis and Research Network.Previously, he was tax policy director for Citizens for Tax Justice and the Instituteon Taxation and Economic Policy for 11 years. He has also served on the staff ofthe New York State Assembly. “The Importance and Promise of American Manufacturing Why It Matters if We Make It in America and Where We Stand Today”, http://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/issues/2011/04/pdf/manufacturing.pdf] Manufacturing is critically important to the American economy. For generations, the strength of AND vulnerable to everything from exchange rate fluctuations to trade embargoes to natural disasters.

Economic collapse causes competition for resources and instability that escalates and goes nuclear
Harris and Burrows, 9 [counselor in the National Intelligence Council, the principal drafter of Global Trends 2025, **member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis”, Washington Quarterly, http://www.twq.com/09april/docs/09apr_burrows.pdf] Increased Potential for Global Conflict Of course, the report encompasses more than economics and indeed believes the future is AND constantly volatile economic environment as they would be if change would be steadier. In surveying those risks, the report stressed the likelihood that terrorism and nonproliferation will AND the absence of economic outlets that would become narrower in an economic downturn. The most dangerous casualty of any economically-induced drawdown of U.S. AND more focus on preemption rather than defense, potentially leading to escalating crises. Types of conflict that the world continues to experience, such as over resources, AND within and between states in a more dog-eat-dog world.

Our impact has a strong statistical basis
Royal 10 [Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises,” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-214] Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict AND not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention.

Natural gas key to spur growth in the chemical industry
Pirog and Ratner 12 - *Energy specialist in the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies International Economics Program, **specialist in energy policy for the Congressional Research Service Robert and Michael, “Natural Gas in the U.S. Economy: Opportunities for Growth” Congressional News Service, [|http://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42814.pdf] Natural gas is used in the chemicals industry both as a fuel and as a AND that of gasoline, makes the competition more economically damaging for European refiners.

Soles Extinction
Sustainability in economic terms means the efficient management of scarce resources as well as a AND keeping up international competitiveness as a pre-requisite of sustainable job creation.
 * ICCA 2** – (CCA (International Council of Chemical Associations), “SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY,” http://www.cefic.be/position/icca/pp_ic010.htm)/

A US-led natural gas revolution solidifies global leadership
Mead 12 – Walter Russell Mead is the James Clark Chase Professor of Foreign Affairs and Humanities at Bard College and an Editor-at-Large for American Interest. (“Energy Revolution 2: A Post Post-American Post”, American Interest, [], July 15, 2012) Forget peak oil; forget the Middle East. The energy revolution of the 21st AND role in shoring up the foundations of the American-led world order.

And it allows us to determine how the international system functions—alters the global balance of power
Gjelten 12 [ Tom Gjelten is a Diplomatic Correspondent for NPR. (“The Dash for Gas: The Golden Age of an Energy Game-Changer”, World Affairs, [], January/Febraury 2012] For a fresh perspective on geopolitical trends, look at the world through the lens AND gas, that vulnerability disappears. There would also be geopolitical effects overseas.

Energy primacy is key to primacy and prevents extinction
Hagel 12 [Chuck Hagel is a Professor at Georgetown University. (“The Challenge of Change”, [], May 15, 2012] A new world order is being built today by seven billion global citizens. America’s AND or region. Instability and violence disrupt supply and distribution and increase prices.

Hegemony solves __conflict escalation__ and __great power war__
Brooks et al. 13 [Don't Come Home, America: The Case against AND Volume 37, Number 3, Winter 2012, p. Project Muse] Assessing the Security Benefits of Deep Engagement Even if deep engagement's costs are far less AND disengaged—even as it pushes cooperation toward U.S. preferences.

Independently new geopolitical change in gas solves resource wars
Mead, 12 [Walter Russell, James Clarke Chace Professor of Foreign Affairs and Humanities at Bard College, 7/18/12, “Energy Revolution 3: The New American Century” The American Interest) []] But on the bigger stage of world politics, it’s the United States that benefits AND one in which the whole oil question is a lot more laid back.

Nuke war
McBay et al, 11 [Eric McBay et al, Lierre Keith, Derrick Jensen, May 5, 2011 publication. “Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save the Planet” Google Books] Resource wars between nuclear states will break out. War between the US and Russia AND settles, global warming will be even more rapid and worse than before.

1AC – Plan
====Plan: The United States Federal Government should remove restrictions on and accelerate leasing of offshore natural gas production of the Outer Continental Shelf within the Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic Ocean, and Pacific Ocean.====

OCS restrictions must be lifted and federal action is key – Congress has to fund DOI leasing projects
Lieberman 8 [senior policy analyst for Energy and Environment for the Heritage Foundation (Ben, “Listing the Offshore Drilling Ban: A Positive Step in the Fight against High Energy Prices”, The Heritage Foundation, 7/14/2008, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2008/07/lifting-the-offshore-drilling-ban-a-positive-step-in-the-fight-against-high-energy-prices] Washington must do something about the increasing price of gasoline, now topping $4 AND them back. Thus far, none of these efforts has been successful.

85% of gas is off limits now
Luthi, 12 [Luthi is the president of the National Ocean Industry Association, representing more than 275 companies engaged in all aspects of the exploration and production of both traditional and renewable energy resources on the nation’s outer continental shelf, “Let's find agreement on new offshore access”, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/energy-a-environment/267089-lets-find-agreement-on-new-offshore-access] Now that the election is (finally) behind us, President Obama has an AND is waiting for us there, because we’re not allowed to go look.

And, the plan creates certainty for offshore production—balances supply
Griles 3 [Lisa, Deputy Secretary, Department of the Interior, “Energy Production on Federal Lands,” Hearing before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, United States Senate] Mr. GRILES. America’s public lands have an abundant opportunity for exploration and development AND from and buy, so they can have certainty about where to go.

And, that sustains low prices and ensures adequate supply
Hastings, 12 [House Representative Doc, Republican Washington, President Obama's offshore drilling plan must be replaced, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/energy-a-environment/239529-president-obamas-offshore-drilling-plan-must-be-replaced] Though President Obama uses lofty rhetoric to claim support for American oil and natural gas AND or support using American energy to create American jobs and strengthen America’s economy.

Nearly 100 new projects are capable of development
If drilling permits going forward were to be issued at pre‐moratorium rates, AND to the nation in terms of energy security, employment and government revenue.
 * Hillegeist et al 11** [President and COO at Quest Offshore Resources, Inc, Sean Shafer, Project Director, Andrew Jackson, Project Manager, Leslie Cook, Senior Research Consultant) December 2011 “The State of the Offshore U.S. Oil and Gas Industry” http://energytomorrow.org/images/uploads/Quest_2011_December_29_Final.pdf]

Otherwise, restrictions __crush predictability and timing__ of projects
Hagerty 10 [Specialist in Energy and Natural Resources Policy at the Congressional Research Service) June 15, 2010 “Outer Continental Shelf Moratoria on Oil and Gas Development” http://crs.ncseonline.org/nle/crsreports/10Jul/R41132.pdf] One legacy of congressional moratoria is their impact on the timing of possible OCS development AND restrictions were defensible in the absence of more permanent alternatives for similar leasing prohibitions

====Obama’s recent announcement only approved seismic studies to determine where resources might be located---it’s entirely separate from decisions about resource development, which the plan authorizes---but it’s perceived as a pro-industry move, which makes disad links non-unique==== HC 7-18 (Houston Chronicle, “Seismic rift: Obama splits with environmentalists on Atlantic oil exploration,” 7/18/14, http://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Seismic-rift-Obama-splits-with-environmentalists-5631901.php) The Obama administration on Friday green-lighted a plan to allow the oil industry AND year. But conservationists have threatened legal action, potentially slowing the timeline.

=Neg=

1NCs
T - its T - nonmilitary T - exploration T - development T - research

Security K Consumption K

Death Cult

China CP Hawaii CP Navy CP Japan CP DOD CP Privatization CP

NOAA tradeoff DA Russian SOI DA Russia Gas DA Midterms politics DA (GOP good) Ex-Im DA China Coal DA Coast Guard tradeoff DA NASA tradeoff DA

Case-specific turns

2NRs
T - nonmilitary T - research

Death Cult

DOD CP

NOAA tradeoff DA Russian SOI DA Midterms politics DA (GOP good) NASA tradeoff DA

Condo good (s/o to Gonni)

Case-specific turns