Kevin+Lou+and+James+Pavur

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 * The United States federal government should implement a phased withdrawal of its ground troops in the Republic of Korea. **

Korean Conflict--Miscalc, Bio-Weapons, Tripwire-draw in Regionalism -- Asian Multipolarity Modernization-- China war

=CITES:=
 * Advantage one is Korean Conflict **

Suspicions continue to mount that … doing so in 2010 is bizarre.
 * U.S. presence makes North Korean provocations inevitable and guarantees our draw in **
 * Bandow, 10 ** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former Special Assistant to Reagan (5/3/10, Doug, “Taming Pyongyang,” http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=23336, JMP)

But no one, of course...the situation escalates much further.
 * Even if a conflict won’t start … escalate to global nuclear war **
 * STRATFOR, 10 ** (5/26/10, “North Korea, South Korea: The Military Balance on the Peninsula,” http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100526_north_korea_south_korea_military_balance_peninsula, JMP)

The sinking of the Cheonan, …, premature pessimism is not advisable.
 * The status quo is fundamentally different – nuclear use is now likely and deterrence won’t solve **
 * Chung, 10 ** – Visiting Professor at the School of International Relations, Nanyang Technological University and former Professor of international relations at Seoul National University (6/1/10, Chung Chong Wook, “The Korean Crisis: Going Beyond the Cheonan Incident,” http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/Perspective/RSIS0352010.pdf)

New York (CNN) -- The Korean … War, not start it anew.
 * Reinforcing deterrence … just makes miscalculation more likely **
 * Armstrong, 10 – ** Professor of history and director of the Center for Korean Research at Columbia University (Charles, 5/26/10, CNN, “The Korean War never ended” http://www.cnn.com/2010/OPINION/05/24/armstrong.north.korea/index.html)

This report examines North Korea’s chemical and biological weapons capabilities in the context of its military doctrine and national objectives. It is based on open source literature, interviews and unpublished documents made available to Crisis Group. Companion reports published simultaneously assess the DPRK’s nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities and what the policy response of the international community should be to its recent nuclear and missile testing.[1] North Korea’s programs to develop … unauthorised WMD attacks or incidents.
 * Deliberate, accidental or unauthorized CBW use is likely **
 * ICG, 09 ** (6/18/09, International Crisis Group, “North Korea’s Chemical and Biological Weapons Programs,” http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/north-east-asia/north-korea/167-north-koreas-chemical-and-biological-weapons-programs.aspx, JMP)

Immediately following 9-11, an anthrax attack … can be developed within days.
 * Will spread globally within six … – greater risk that nuclear weapons **
 * Levy, 07 ** // founder of ESG Consulting, an organization that provides consultation for political causes and issues related to terrorism and national security. // (6-8-07, Janet Ellen, The American Thinking, “The Threat of Bioweapons,” http://www.americanthinker.com/2007/06/the_threat_of_bioweapons.html, JMP)

Of all the weapons of … the highest of all crimes.
 * Impact is extinction **
 * Ochs 02 ** – MA in Natural Resource Management from Rutgers University and Naturalist at Grand Teton National Park [Richard, “BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS MUST BE ABOLISHED IMMEDIATELY,” Jun 9, http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html]


 * And, North Korean aggression and nuclearization will cause intentional, miscalculated, or accidental nuclear conflict – even a limited nuclear war causes rapid cooling and ozone disruption, collapses the economy, and spills over to other hot spots **
 * Hayes & Hamel-Green, 10 ** – *Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development, AND Executive Dean of the Faculty of Arts, Education and Human Development act Victoria University (1/5/10, Executive Dean at Victoria, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia,” http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf)
 * The international community is increasingly … consideration from the international community. **

**Withdrawing troops is the best response to North Korea’s perception of U.S. weakness – stops it from drawing U.S. forces into a wider conflict** **Stanton, 10** ** – U .S. Army Judge Advocate in Korea from 98-02 and practicing attorney in Washington, D.C. (4/12/10, Joshua, The New Ledger, “It's Time for the U.S. Army to Leave Korea,” http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/04/11/opinion/main6386737.shtml, JMP) **


 * Proceeding against the advice of …, aligns with the correct result. **

**Independently,** **withdrawal will motivate South … stabilize and de-nuclearize the peninsula** **Erickson, 10** ** – Executive Director of CenterMovement.org (5/6/10, Stephen, “End the Cold War in Korea: Bring American Troops Home Before it’s Too Late,” http://www.centermovement.org/topics-issues/end-the-cold-war-in-korea-bring-american-troops-home-before-its-too-late/, JMP) **


 * On the night of March 26 … home before it’s too late. **

Advantage two is Regionalism

U.S. alliance relationships are unsustainable – … and stop major power domination Francis, 06 ** – former Australian Ambassador to Croatia and fellow at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University from 05-06 (Fall 2006, Neil, Harvard International Review, “For an East Asian Union: Rethinking Asia's Cold War Alliances,” http://hir.harvard.edu/index.php?page=article&id=1586, JMP ) **


 * At the conclusion of the … a strong, independent East Asian Union. **

**Regionalism is currently halfhearted – only a … motivate sustainable regional security cooperation** **Carpenter and Bandow** 4 - * ** Vice President of Defense and Foreign Studies at the Cato Institute, AND ** Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute (Ted Galen Carpenter, 12/2004, The Korean Conundrum: America’s Troubled Relations With North and South Korea, pg 160-161)DR __The security treaties with the … central and west-central Pacific.__

Korea’s Option of Multilateral Security … form of the U.S.-Korea alliance.
 * Specially, withdrawal will reduce Korea’s veto of multilateral security mechanisms – yielding a peace system on the peninsula that prevents great power war **
 * Lee, 09 ** – Seoul National University (December 2009, Geun, “The Nexus between Korea’s Regional Security Options and Domestic Politics,” www.cfr.org, JMP)


 * Accelerating U.S. withdrawal is key to catalyze a multipolar balance of power in the region and pave the way for an off-shore balancing strategy. **
 * Espiritu, 06 ** – Commander, U.S. Navy (3/15/06, Commander Emilson M. Espiritu, “The Eagle Heads Home: Rethinking National Security Policy for The Asia-Pacific Region,” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA448817&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf, JMP)

Can the U.S. live with the … the Eagle to head home.


 * Independently, U.S. presence saps South Korea’s desire to develop its own independent defense and diplomatic strategy and boost morale to effectively deter North Korea **
 * Wook-Sik, 06 ** – representative of the Civil Network for a Peaceful Korea (Cheong, 4/4/06, “ROK-U.S. Alliance: More Harm Than Good” http://english.ohmynews.com/articleview/article_view.asp?at_code=321054)

Considering all these figures, we … of its alliance with America.


 * Strengthening the East Asian regional security architecture key to solve terrorism, territorial disputes, disease, environmental degradation, and maritime security **
 * Nanto, 08 ** – Specialist in Industry and Trade Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division for Congressional Research Services (1/4, “East Asian Regional Architecture: New Economic and Security Arrangements and U.S. Policy,” www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33653.pdf)

A stronger __regional security organization …__ will exist in the future.

__MAKING THESE flash-points all … Japan--or the__ United States. = =
 * Territorial disputes draw in great powers --- causes World War 3 **
 * Waldron, 97 ** – professor of strategy and policy at the U.S. Naval War College and an associate of the Fairbank Center for East Asian Research at Harvard (March 1997, Arthur, Commentary, “How Not to Deal with China,” EBSCO)


 * Advantage three is South Korean Defense **

Bennett 10--- (Bruce, Senior Policy Analyst – RAND Corporation, “S. Korea’s Military Capability ‘Inadequate’”, Chosun Ilbo, 1-29, http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/01/29/2010012900705.html) An American academic says South … __Korea's catastrophic threats," he added.__
 * South Korea is free-riding – defense spending is tiny**

South Korea’s foreign minister reports … dispute into an international crisis.
 * Plan prompts South Korean conventional force modernization which allows it to deter Chinese aggression **
 * Bandow, 09 ** – Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to Reagan (6/16/09, Doug, “A Tattered Umbrella,” http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=21606, JMP)

McDevitt 8 (Michael, Rear Admiral – US Navy (Ret.), Center for Naval Analyses, “Asian Military Modernization: Key Areas of Concern”, 6-4, http://www.iiss.org/conferences/global-strategic-challenges-as-played-out-in-asia/asias-strategic-challenges-in-search-of-a-common-agenda/conference-papers/fourth-session-an-asian-arms-race/asian-military-modernization-key-areas-of-concern-michael-mcdevitt/) Military modernization goes on continuously … will fuel the capabilities competition.
 * Chinese rise makes multiple regional conflicts inevitable – only ROK conventional deterrence solves**

TAIPEI — It's the stuff of … and the rising Asian giant.
 * Chinese aggression against Taiwan will escalate and go nuclear **
 * Adams, 09 ** – reporter for global post and newsweek on China and Taiwan (3/31/09, Jonathon, Global Post, “The dragon sharpens its claws,” http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/china-and-its-neighbors/090331/the-dragon-sharpens-its-claws)


 * Escalation is likely – impact is full-scale US/China nuclear war**

Dodge 5 (Paul, Department of Defense and Strategic Studies – Missouri State University, “China’s Naval Strategy and Nuclear Weapons: The Risks of Intentional and Inadvertent Nuclear Escalation”, Comparative Strategy, 24(5), December, p. 415-416) In the summer of 2005, Chinese … warfighting strategy may be revealed.

(Ching Cheong, The Straits Times, “No one gains in war over Taiwan,” 6-25-2000, Lexis-Nexis Universe) A cross-strait conflict, even … puts sovereignty above everything else.
 * THE IMPACT IS Extinction **
 * Cheong, 2000 ** – East Asia Correspondent


 * Contention 4 is framework preempt: **
 * The Neg must defend the status quo or a competitive policy option. **