Aff+Matthew+Fishman+and+Elaine+Wong

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**War is increasingly likely – diplomatic dialogue is key**
Days before an international arbitration court rules on the disputed territory in the South China AND , director of the US-Asia Law Institute at New York University.
 * Coonan, 7-9**-16—Chris, citing Jerome A Cohen, director of the US-Asia Law Institute at New York University, "Armed conflict threat as regional rivals await South China Sea ruling," http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/asia-pacific/armed-conflict-threat-as-regional-rivals-await-south-china-sea-ruling-1.2715377 —br

**Mistrust is fueling multiple flashpoints within the region – high level talks are necessary to avoid they escalate**

 * Zhao 2015** - Professor and Director of the Center for China–US Cooperation at Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver

Suisheng, "A New Model of Big Power Relations? China–US strategic rivalry and balance of power in the Asia–Pacific," Journal of Contemporary China Volume 24, Issue 93, 2015, p 377-397 The Asia–Pacific region has become a test ground to determine whether China and AND become one of the most dangerous flashpoints in the twenty-first century.

**The SCS is the world's most dangerous hotspot – regional multilateral norms are try or die**
The vast South China Sea has become one of the world's most dangerous hotspots. AND and the rights of all nations, large and small—are upheld.
 * Gewirtz, 16**— Paul, Director @ Yale Law School's China Center. Law Professor with a speciality in Chinese law, and American foreign policy, Online: "Limits of Law in the South China Sea," The Brookings Institution: Center For East Asia Policy Studies, May 8, http://www.brookings.edu//media/research/files/papers/2016/05/09-limits-of-law-south-china-sea/limits-of-law-in-the-south-china-sea.pdf —AWW

**South China Sea conflict goes nuclear and is existential – it also crushes cooperation on other existential threats**
The simple answer is that these are two frightfully well-armed nuclear powers, AND two largest greenhouse gas emitters working together, I truly fear the worst.
 * Kuo, 7-10**—Mercy Kuo interviewing Kaiser Kuo – founder of Sinica Podcast, director of international communications @ Baidu (Chinese Google) and columnist at The Beijinger. Part of a series where M. Kuo engages with subject-matter experts, policy practitioners and strategic thinkers across the globe for their diverse insights into the U.S. rebalance to Asia. "New Potus Brief: Getting US-China Relations Right," The Diplomat, -us-china-relations-right/ —br

**Now is a unique moment – China is likely to use force post the Hague ruling in fishing disputes**

 * Johnson 2016** - senior reporter covering energy for Foreign Policy

Keith, "Can Indonesia Afford a Fish War with China?," Jul 8, foreignpolicy.com/2016/07/08/can-indonesia-afford-a-fish-war-with-china/ In recent years, Indonesia has tried to stay above the fray as other countries AND to push back," Medeiros said, "that affects China's strategic calculation."

**This Maritime Militia will spark a war that escalates**

 * Chao 2016** - international relations doctoral student (Mellon Ethnopolitics Fellow) in Political Science @ UPenn

Brian C, "Coast Guards Could Accidentally Spark War in the South China S," Jun 28, nationalinterest.org/feature/coast-guards-could-accidentally-spark-war-the-south-china-16766?page=show Chinese activities in the China Seas over the past few years have caused growing consternation AND regardless of whether the hulls are battleship grey or coast-guard white.

**Only having open channels of communication can prevent this version of the Thucydides Trap from going nuclear**

 * Lam Peng Er 2016** - Senior Research Fellow, East Asian Institute

"China, the United States, Alliances, and War: Avoiding the Thucydides Trap?," Asian Affairs: An American Review Volume 43, Issue 2, 2016, p. 36-36 That the intelligentsia in the United States and China openly ponder and hold a conversation AND will place tremendous stress on crisis management between the United States and China.

**We solve this advantage**

 * SQ containment strategies inevitably fail – high level dialogue needed**
 * Ilamn 2016** - Currently works in Pacivis (Global Civil Society Research Center) of U of Indonesia

Zidy, "Is the South China Sea the Stage for the Next World War?," Jul 3, nationalinterest.org/feature/the-south-china-sea-the-stage-the-next-world-war-16833?page=show What is happening today is that China has gathered enough power and is becoming powerful AND States to reverse the negative trend, she surely has much to do.

**S&ED creates the channels necessary to ensure cooperation in moments tension**

 * Garrison 2016** – Director of International Studies @ University of Wyoming

Jean and Marc Wall, "The Rise of Hedging and Regionalism: An Explanation and Evaluation of President Obama's China Policy," Asian Affairs: An American Review Volume 43, Issue 2, 2016, p 47-63 With each flare-up in tensions, cooler heads in both capitals stepped in AND , no-nonsense approach to maintain overall stability and manage ongoing tensions.

**SQ doesn't solve – an extension of S&ED that includes higher level officials ensures that mistrust stays in check**

 * Dai 2016** - Former State Councilor of China

Bingguo, "On Building a New Model of Major-Country Relations Between China and the United States," Jun 20, www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjb_663304/zzjg_663340/bmdyzs_664814/xwlb_664816/t1350752.shtml For the past decades, China and the US have basically sticked to the path AND The path will be bumpy, but it leads to a bright future.

**By developing already existing mechanisms, the plan solves any alt causes**

 * Yung 2016**- Donald Bren Chair of Non-Western Strategic Thought at the U.S. Marine Corps University

Christopher and Wang Dang, "THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA CAN GET ALONG IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA," Jul 6, warontherocks.com/2016/07/the-united-states-and-china-can-get-along-in-the-south-china-sea/ China and the United States have fundamentally different philosophies about the nature and meaning of AND maritime interests may vary, the joint interest in preserving stability remains paramount.

Plan
====**Plan: The United States federal government should diplomatically engage the People's Republic of China by offering to indefinitely extend and include higher-level officials at the Strategic & Economic Dialogue.**====

**Warming is anthropogenic and causes extinction**

 * Adams 16** —- has a degree in agriculture and cites studies done by NASA and the IPCC

(Andrew, Prince George Citizen, 4/16/16, "There is no debating scientific facts," http://www.princegeorgecitizen.com/opinion/columnists/there-is-no-debating-scientific-facts-1.2229437)//ernst Last week I wrote about the signs of early spring and put a few jabs AND watching conspiracy theories?" P.s. The Earth is not flat.

**Initiatives by the US and China are necessary to solve, but dialogue through the plan is necessary**

 * Shi et al 2014 -**Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Longyu Shi, Weichen Ma, Guofan Shao, Lina Tang, Yangyang Wang & Haowei Wang, "The US and China need to turn ongoing bilateral dialogue into immediate joint mitigation," International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology Volume 22, Issue 1, 2015, p 25-29 Climate change mitigation is an important consideration for sustainable development at both national (Halsnæs AND cooperation is supposed to have synergic effects but nothing can happen without action.

**Empirically, S&ED drives critical climate initiatives**

 * Reynolds 2016** - writer and foreign policy analyst based in New York

Ben, "Climate Change Outcomes of the 2016 Strategic and Economic Dialogue," Jun 30, www.chinausfocus.com/finance-economy/climate-change-outcomes-of-the-2016-strategic-and-economic-dialogue/ At this year's S&ED, the U.S. and China launched AND that we place the fate of our children before the struggle for hegemony.

**Expert consensus that warming is real and existential – ignites a cascade that exceeds cost-benefit analysis**
CLIMATE change puts humanity at risk. The Pope's celebrated encyclical letter on the subject AND be very effective in overcoming the current inertia that climate negotiations suffer from.
 * Treich and Rheinberger, 15**—Christoph Rheinberger (Professor of Health Policy and Management @ Harvard) and Nicolas Treich (Professor at the Toulouse School of Economics). Citing Weitzman (economist @ Harvard) and Bostrom (prof @ Oxford). "On the economics of the end of the world as we know it," The Economist, http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2015/07/climate-change — br

**The eighth and final round of Strategic and Economic Dialogue concluded in June, opening channels for communication and cooperation on a litany of issues**

 * Shen 2016** - professor and Vice Dean at the Institute of International Studies, Fudan University

Dingli, "Strategic Dialogue Advances Partnership, with a Limit," Jun 14, www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/strategic-dialogue-advances-partnership-with-a-limit/ China and the US have just conducted their eighth round of Strategic and Economic Dialogue AND was rich in ideological confrontation but lacked economic and people-based cooperation.

**Scheduling the next round now signals commitment and allows for changes making for more effective discussions**

 * Reade 2016** - Senior Associate with the Freeman chair in China Studies @ CSIS

Claire, "The U.S.-China S&ED: Time to Tinker, Not to Toss," Jun 27, https://www.csis.org/analysis/us-china-sed-time-tinker-not-toss The last U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED AND impressive S&ED gathering, while increasing the effectiveness of the effort.

**Upgrading the SED to include presidential dialogue sets a clear agenda and builds crisis management mechanisms**

 * Rudd 2015** - Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs & Former Prime Minister, Australia

Kevin, "US-China 21: The Future of US-China Relations Under Xi Jinping," belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Summary%20Report%20US-China%2021.pdf Beyond the two countries' embassies, the principal mechanism for managing the breadth and depth AND 周恩来 ). This is now necessary because the stakes today are even higher.