Connor+&+Willi

GRAMS CN--Chapkis and Neme-Micula
For aff stuff - williamnememicula@gmail.com

For neg stuff - connorchapkis@gmail.com

**Warming is anthropogenic – the most comprehensive data-sets are conclusive**
Green 13 – Professor of Chemistry @ Michigan Tech AND 1% based on abstract ratings) endorses the scientific consensus on AGW.
 * John Cook – Fellow @ Global Change Institute, produced climate communication resources adopted by organisations such as NOAA and the U.S. Navy
 * Dana Nuccitelli – MA in Physics @ UC-Davis**
 * Mark Richardson

**Consensus flows aff—prefer peer review on important scientific issues**
Powell, 14 – science author who has been a college and museum president and was a member of the National Science Board for 12 years, appointed first by President Reagan and then by President George H. W. Bush (Jim, “Consensus: 99.84% of Peer-Reviewed Articles Support the Idea of Global Warming,” []) Polls show that many members of the public believe scientists substantially disagree about human- AND cause. //These are known facts about which virtually all publishing scientists agree.//

**Extinction—GHG emissions are the proximate cause**
Costello 11, Anthony, Institute for Global Health, University College London, Mark Maslin, Department of Geography, University College London, Hugh Montgomery, Institute for Human Health and Performance, University College London, Anne M. Johnson, Institute for Global Health, University College London, Paul Ekins, Energy Institute, University College London [“Global health and climate change: moving from denial and catastrophic fatalism to positive action” May 2011 vol. 369 no. 1942 1866-1882 Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society] Advocacy about the health consequences will ensure that climate change is a high priority. AND __as dissipation of metabolic heat becomes impossible,__ therefore __making__ many __environments uninhabitable.__

**Specifically true for rice and wheat, which are __key dietary staples__—causes extinction from immune system collapse**
WEDNESDAY, May 7, 2014 (HealthDay News) -- As carbon dioxide levels AND saying is that we have a big, big problem," she said.
 * Mozes 14** (Alan Mozes, HealthDay Reporter, "Could Rising Carbon Dioxide Levels Strip Foods of Some Nutrients?" May 7, 2014 [], RLA)

**Eliminating federal laws that chill offshore wind is necessary to mitigate its worst impacts—this card is fantastic**
Thaler 12 (Jeff Thaler, FIDDLING AS THE WORLD BURNS: HOW CLIMATE CHANGE URGENTLY REQUIRES A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE PERMITTING OF RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS, University of Maine School of Law September 17, 2012 Environmental Law, Volume 42, Issue 4, Forthcoming, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2148122) This Article instead will start with the oft-stated goal of increasing domestic and AND and Block Island in Rhode Island would likewise be shallow-water installations.

**Only US leadership solves climate multilateralism**
Brown 11 – Professor of Environmental Ethics and Law (Donald, 2-2011, “The World Waits In Vain For US Ethical Climate Change Leadership As the World Warms,” http://rockblogs.psu.edu/climate/2011/02/the-world-waits-in-vain-for-us-ethical-climate-change-leadership.html)//BB I. Introduction. Although some progress was made on a number of procedural issues AND for climate change damages. This is tragic failure of US domestic leadership.

**That’s key to effective cooperation**
Effective climate mitigation requires international cooperation, and these global efforts need broad public support AND norms of reciprocity and individuals’ beliefs about the potential effectiveness of specific agreements.
 * Bechtel 13** – *Department of Political Science, University of St. Gallen, Switzerland and **Department of Political Science, Stanford University (Michael M. Bechtel and Kenneth F. Scheve, “Mass support for global climate agreements depends on institutional design” PNAS Direct Submission, Edited by Robert O. Keohane, Princeton University, July 1 2013)

**Electricity-emissions reductions are necessary and sufficient to solve global warming**
Akorede 12 - F., Ph.D degree in Electrical Power Engineering from Universiti Putra Malaysia(H. Hizam, M.Z.A. Ab Kadir, I. Aris, S.D. Buba Electrical & Electronic Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia, “Mitigating the anthropogenic global warming in the electric power industry,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16.5)//BB 5. Power industry's share of CO2 emissions To identify the most productive mitigation strategies AND of these possible mitigation techniques is discussed in turn in the following subsections.

**Only action now solves future catastrophe**
Talbott 10 – Director and President @ Brookings(William Antholis, managing director of the Brookings Institution and a senior fellow in Governance Studies, former director of studies at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, and Strobe Talbott, president of the Brookings Institution, deputy Sec. of State under Clinton, “The Global Warming Tipping Point,” The Globalist, http://www.theglobalist.com/storyid.aspx?StoryId=8523)//BB Moreover, we need to start reductions now in order to slow temperature rise later AND not burn fossil fuels and therefore do not pump CO2 into the atmosphere.

**China’s developing offshore wind now to win the energy race**
WSJ 14 (Wall street journal “China's New Wager: Pulling Energy From the Ocean” Wall street journal 3/31/14 accessed 6/23/14) HONG KONG— A race is under way to unlock one of the world's biggest AND viable, says Dan Heller, the company's vice president of new ventures. ¶

**Clean tech leadership is key to Chinese soft power**
Look at overseas coverage of China over the past six months and you would be AND , it could earn both domestic support and a significantly improved international image.
 * Guschin, 14** – MA degree in China studies from Saint-Petersburg State University. His current research focuses on the PRC’s economic integration within Asia-Pacific and Sino-Russian cooperation in the Arctic (Arthur, “China’s Renewable Energy Opportunity,” The Diplomat, 4/3/2014, []) //RGP

**a. Perception**
Zhang ’10 (Yunling Zhang – Professor of international economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, “Rising China And World Order,” July 22, 2010, pg 54)//JHH China is likely to continue to make use of both strategic institu-tions to AND ) has called the ASEAN way a "security through dialogue" model.

**b. Maritime Power would be zero sum**
Implications for the United States Given the uncertainties surrounding the prospects of China's maritime soft AND on this foundation, lest it see its regional primacy go into decline.
 * Holmes, 9** – *holds the John A. van Beuren Chair of Asia-Pacific Studies and is an affiliate member of the China Maritime Studies Institute at the U.S. Naval War College AND ** Professor of Strategy at the Naval War College (*Toshi AND** James, “Chinese Soft Power in the Indian Ocean,” APSA 2009 Toronto Meeting Paper, [])//schnall

**China rise leads to __US-Sino war__ and __institutional instability__ – internal pressures __force__ China to escalate**
Adams 4/25 (Elizabeth Adams – Communications Coordinator for Global Outreach at the University of Delaware, citing & quoting Susan Shirk – Ph.D @ MIT, chair of the 21st Century China Program and Ho Miu Lam Professor of China and Pacific Relations at the School of International Relations and Pacific Studies, chair of the IGCC International Advisory Board, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State in the Bureau of East Asia and Pacific Affairs, with responsibility for China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Mongolia (1997-2000), U.S. Defense Policy Board, the Board of Governors for the East-West Center (Hawaii), the Board of Trustees of the U.S.-Japan Foundation, and the Board of Directors of the National Committee on United States-China Relations, “China's challenge lies not in economy but in fragile political system, expert says,” April 25, 2014, http://www.udel.edu/udaily/2014/apr/china-challenge-042514.html)//JHH 9:01 a.m., April 25, 2014--The way Americans AND system are being resolved and if China will be able to rise peacefully.”

** Chinese leadership will trigger multiple hotspots **
Keck, 14 —*cites Mearsheimer extensively, Prof of IR @ U Chicago, Godfather of realism Zachary, “US-China Rivalry More Dangerous Than Cold War?” The Diplomat, Jan 28—http://thediplomat.com/2014/01/us-china-rivalry-more-dangerous-than-cold-war/ --BR The prominent realist international relations scholar John Mearsheimer says there is a greater possibility of AND potential threat to the United States than anything America has previously dealt with.

**Korea war goes nuclear**
Chol 2 - Kim Chol, The Agreed Framework is Brain Dead, 2002, p. http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/0212A_Chol.html The second choice is for the Americans to initiate military action to knock out the AND . They would end up finding themselves reduced to a second-class nuclear

**South China Sea goes nuclear**
Two concerns have driven much of the debate about international security in the post- AND
 * Goldstein, 13** – Avery, David M. Knott Professor of Global Politics and International Relations, Director of the Center for the Study of Contemporary China, and Associate Director of the Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics at the University of Pennsylvania (“First Things First: The Pressing Danger of Crisis Instability in U.S.-China Relations,” International Security, vol. 37, no. 4, Spring 2013, Muse //Red)
 * __a crisis__**__, compressing the time frame for diplomacy to avert military conflict.__

**Taiwan goes nuclear**
__Taiwan is the__**__most likely potential crisis__**__that could__**__trigger a nuclear war__**__between China__ __AND__
 * Lowther 13** William, Taipei Times, citing a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3/16/13, “Taiwan could spark nuclear war: report,” []
 * __arsenals__**, __such a conflict would be__ tremendously dangerous and quite possibly **__devastating__** .”

1AC—Solvency

 * Lastly is solvency**

**A long-term investment tax credit __catapults__ the offshore wind industry**
Sopko 13 – JD, former legislative council @ House of Reps (Nancy, “Offshore Wind Needs a Boost from Congress,” http://oceana.org/en/blog/2013/11/offshore-wind-needs-a-boost-from-congress-0)//BB Like so many of us, Oceana has seen the damage that the drilling for AND , the harder it will be to correct the damage we have done.

**Offshore wind has more momentum than ever before – Investment Tax Credits are VITAL right now to bring in investors**
Ocean News and Technology, 14 (“Offshore wind experiences an "extraordinary" year in the U.S.”, Ocean News and Technology, ProQuest, Volume 20, Issue 1) 2013wasanextraordinary, exciting, precedent-filled yearfor offshore windand AND to west and relieve some of the congestion, thus lowering transmission costs.

**Long-term incentives ensure that the supply chain follows on—fed support key**
Galluci ‘11 - Staff Reporter at InsideClimate News Honduras Contributor at Fodor's, Co-Editor & Reporter at The News, Newsroom Intern at Associated Press, Newsroom Intern at Columbus Business (Maria, “Never-Used Tax Credit Could Jumpstart US Offshore Wind Energy—if Renewed,” http://truth-out.org/news/item/4778:neverused-tax-credit-could-jumpstart-us-offshore-wind-energy%E2%80%94if-renewed) Matt Kaplan, a North American wind analyst at IHS Emerging Energy Research , said // AND // way toward helping this industry develop in the United States," Grybowski said.

**Pre-emption of state barriers solves – nuclear power, hydropower, cell tower and vehicle emissions statutes prove**
Thaler 12 – Visiting Professor of Energy Policy, Law & Ethics, University of Maine School of Law and School of Economics (Jeff, “FIDDLING AS THE WORLD FLOODS AND BURNS: HOW CLIMATE CHANGE URGENTLY REQUIRES A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE PERMITTING OF RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS,” Environmental Law, 42, Lexis)//BB However, statutes expediting agency review of offshore wind projects ¶ solve only part of AND such ¶ as the ESA, the MMPA, and the MBTA. ¶

**Only a federal __mandate__ can guarantee the expansion of wind energy**
Schroeder, 10 --- J.D., University of California, Berkeley, School of Law (October 2010, Erica, California Law Review, “Turning Offshore Wind On,” Vol. 98, No, 5, Lexis, JMP) However, the Oceans Act and Ocean Management Plan, though promising, have come AND **back it up, offshore wind power development is sure to be slow** **. **

**Pragmatism is critical to infuse ethics into climate change policy**
Lilley 10 (Jonathan Charles Lilley, Phd Philosophy, Delaware, A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the University of Delaware in partial fulfillment of the requir ements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Marine Studies“Navigating A Sea Of Values: Understanding Public Attitudes Toward The Ocean And Ocean Energy Resources,” Summer 2010, pg online @ http://www.ceoe.udel.edu/windpower/resources/J_Lilley_8-03_FINAL.pdf //um-ef) 2.3.3 Environmental Pragmatism and Policy ... contribute in the political arena.

1AC Fear
====**Enlightenment philosophy is founded on a fear of the ocean. We seek predictability and limits because we fear the inevitability of chaos and death. Attempts to circumscribe our voyage only represses what we fear and guarantees that it will be expressed in another place and at another time time. The project of our affirmative is to explore this ocean without refuge, to give up on the myth of a safe harbor.**==== __Of the ‘terrain of pure understanding’ Kant says: //This domain is// //an island//__ //__AND__// __the first truly vampiric civilization, in which death alone comes to rule__. ====**Fascism, too, is founded on a fear of the ocean. Mass exterminations are the result of a desire to cleanse and purify our community, to resist the unknown by drawing limits and isolating us from the real of blood and death. The obsession with policy will lead us nowhere—only a focus on poetry, language without an instrumental purpose, as a resistance to literal, limiting thought undermines the conditions of possibility for misery and atrocity**==== However great the revulsion that can be felt in contact with a single corpse, AND __in the blister. What matters is **burning a hole through the wall**__. ====**Modern science has created a myth of infinite knowledge which stifles creativity and represses excess with the quest for literal truth. Our philosophical investigation of the ocean resists this completion and provides an outlet for scientific inquiry and resists the dominant form of scholarship as accumulation and work, which demands predictability, order, and stasis. Exploration resists both scientific certainty and mystical obscurantism—thought without restriction is important in and of itself**==== __One consequence of the__ Occidental __obsession with transcendence, logicized negation, the purity of__ __AND__ brief, and instead of a draining anaesthetic attachment there is the sting.
 * Land 1992** (Nick Land is a lecturer in Continental Philosophy at Warwick University, The Thirst for Annihilation: Georges Bataille and Virulent Nihilism) 75-9 IMPORTANT NOTE: parts in italics are quotations in the text from Kant. Kant is the bad guy. He’s going for framework against Bataille. You probably want to preserve that formatting.)
 * Land 1992** (Nick Land is a lecturer in Continental Philosophy at Warwick University, The Thirst for Annihilation: Georges Bataille and Virulent Nihilism, 138-140)
 * Land 1992** (Nick Land is a lecturer in Continental Philosophy at Warwick University, The Thirst for Annihilation: Georges Bataille and Virulent Nihilism, 24-5)

**In the fiction of H.P. Lovecraft, Cthulhu and his lost city of R’lyeh beneath the ocean stand in for the horror of the Real, that which exceeds the power of language to literally assimilate**
H.P. __Lovecraft__ once __wrote that the true weird tale must convey “__ __AND__ transcendent Real and the Thing, and this synonymity introduces the object a. ====**The Cthulhu Mythos is the foundation of cosmic horror. The point is not just fear, but a dislocation of humanity’s central place in the universe. Revealing that the sublime powers of the universe are indifferent towards and untroubled by humanity fascinates and terrifies us, shattering the frame of terrestrial philosophy**==== __To appreciate the cosmic mystery that Lovecraft so obsessively tried to convey and conjure to__ __AND__ __materialistic civilization and thoroughly disillusioned with it, yearns for that sublime unknown.__ ====**The aff’s exploration of the unknown through cosmic horror reveals the gaps and fissures of the Planet and decenters human subjectivity—this is the necessary prerequisite to an encounter with political and ecological crises**==== __The world is increasingly unthinkable – a world of planetary disasters, emerging pandemics,__ __AND__ as Plato once put it, “hair, mud, and dirt.”
 * Laliberte 2013** (Chris, “The Real in R’lyeh: On Lacan and Lovecraft,” With Caffeine & Careful Thought, Vol 1. Iss 1., November, http://142.150.190.119/index.php/wcct/article/view/20138) THIS EVIDENCE IS GENDER MODIFIED
 * Mariani 2014** (Mike, Terror Incognita: The Paradoxical History of Cosmic Horror, from Lovecraft to Ligotti, Los Angeles Review of Books, April 10, https://lareviewofbooks.org/essay/terror-incognita-paradoxical-history-cosmic-horror-lovecraft-ligotti)
 * Thacker 2010** (Eugene, associate professor at The New School, In the Dust of this Planet, kindle)

1ac – space col
Contention 1 is Getting off the Rock

**Extinction is inevitable if we stay on earth**
- Asteroid

- Gamma-ray Burst

- Collapse of the Vacuum

- Rogue Black Holes

- Giant Solar Flares Extinction by Asteroid: The end of Future Human ...
 * FHE 14 ** a group of scientist and other professionals Future Human Extinction: Natural Disasters Asteroid impact The Future of Human Evolution http://futurehumanevolution.com/future-human-extinction-risks/future-human-extinction-natural-disasters]

AND

disease, which humans helped transport as they migrated into the New World.

**Reducing existential risk __by even a tiny amount__ outweighs __every other impact__—the math is //conclusively on our side//.**
Bostrom 11 — Nick Bostrom, Professor in the Faculty of Philosophy & Oxford Martin School, Director of the Future of Humanity Institute, and Director of the Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology at the University of Oxford, recipient of the 2009 Eugene R. Gannon Award for the Continued Pursuit of Human Advancement, holds a Ph.D. in Philosophy from the London School of Economics, 2011 (“The Concept of Existential Risk,” Draft of a Paper published on ExistentialRisk.com, Available Online at http://www.existentialrisk.com/concept.html, Accessed 07-04-2011)*we don’t endorse gendered language

Holding probability constant, risks become more serious as we move toward the upper-

AND

the positive value of the direct benefit of such an action.[13]

====**Reducing the probability of existential disaster through space colonization is more valuable than preventing specific impact scenarios. Overly detailed impact predictions are __improbable__ and create __false perceptions of security__.**====

**Yudkowsky 6** —Co-founder and Research Fellow of the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence—a non–profit research institute dedicated to increasing the likelihood of, and decreasing the time to, a maximally beneficial singularity, one of the world’s foremost experts on Artificial Intelligence and rationality [Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Cognitive Biases Potentially Affecting Judgment Of Global Risks,” Draft of a chapter in //Global Catastrophic Risks//, edited by Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic, August 31st, 2006, Available Online at http://singinst.org/upload/cognitive-biases.pdf, Accessed 11-11-2010]

According to probability theory, adding additional detail onto a story must render the story

AND

well as misdirecting defensive investments into needlessly narrow or implausibly detailed risk scenarios.

**Err affirmative—the __availability heuristic__ and “//good story bias//” will make you undervalue our impact**
Bostrom 11 — Nick Bostrom, Professor in the Faculty of Philosophy & Oxford Martin School, Director of the Future of Humanity Institute, and Director of the Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology at the University of Oxford, recipient of the 2009 Eugene R. Gannon Award for the Continued Pursuit of Human Advancement, holds a Ph.D. in Philosophy from the London School of Economics, 2011 (“The Concept of Existential Risk,” Draft of a Paper published on ExistentialRisk.com, Available Online at http://www.existentialrisk.com/concept.html, Accessed 07-04-2011)

Many kinds of cognitive bias and other psychological phenomena impede efforts at thinking clearly and

AND

succeed at the box office (although more likely to happen in reality).

**Space colonization is possible--it could occur now but the main problem is lack of NASA support**
Warburton 14 [Matthew writer for the liberty voice NASA Space Tourism, Migration and Colonization March 28, 2014 http://guardianlv.com/2014/03/nasa-space-tourism-migration-and-colonization/]

To paraphrase the late astronaut John Young, NASA is not motivated by a sense

AND

not beyond conceivable at all, and could one day become a reality.

**A. Economically feasible transportation of resources**
ISCE 12 [Wednesday, 11 April 2012 The International Space Elevator Consortium (ISEC) is composed of individuals scientists and organizations from around the world who share a vision of humanity in space, [|Why do I want a Space Elevator], []]

What does a space elevator give us? In a nutshell, a Space Elevator

AND

all of us and a Space Elevator is the way to provide this capability

**B. Mars colonization**

 * (MSE)=Martian space elevator

Hinton 09 [Gaylen he attended the University of Utahfocused on Research and Development management of complex multidisciplinary engineering projects. Gaylen's technical achievements include 16 U.S. Patents. dpufTHE COLONIZATION OF MARS VIA A MARTIAN SPACE ELEVATOR The Mars Society http://www.marspapers.org/papers/Hinton_2009.pdf]

If a complete MSE was sent from earth with the first Mars colony, then

AND

flurry of activity around those launch windows, but little use between them.

**There are plenty of places to colonize**
-The moon

-Mars

-Venus

- Asteroids

- Exoplanets

Markert 14 [July 14 Jennifer

AND

would be colonized by robots before the unfreezing and subsequent human takeover began.

**Portable farms means space colonization is possible**
Davis 13 [Colle and Phyllis He is the founder and co-inventor at the Portable Farms company. As an inventor, he has designed systems that are used commercially. He also provides consulting and training to those willing to pay his fee for his many years of expertise. There are probably not all that many people that have more years of relevant first hand experience than Colle Davis. Portable Farms Makes Space Colonization Possible 12/2013 http://portablefarms.com/2012/space-colonization/

In order to colonize the Moon and Mars, the colonists will eat the food

AND

own food in a new and unprecedented way through the technology of aquaponics.

1ac – plan
====**The United States federal government should support the construction of an ocean-based space elevator located within the United States’ Exclusive Economic Zone off the coast of Hawaii through a dedicated funding stream.**====

**Only an ocean based elevator solves**
- Weather because of the equator

- Safety because of currents

- City island

Smitherman 2k [David V, August. Smitherman is Architect,

AND

lands and tropical rain forests in the world in the equatorial regions.13

**More ev—Hawaii is uniquely key—the position in the ocean is key to weather conditions a repairs**
van Pelt 09 [Michel, 6/12. van Pelt works as an engineer at ESTEC, the technical centre of the European Space Agency (ESA). Space Tethers and Space Elevators. [|http://books.google.com/books?id=539QDxp-rtQC&pg=PA151&lpg=PA151&dq=equators+key+spot+for+space+elevators&source=bl&ots=T-o2aAY3UO&sig=moplba34imbtC1Yc6w3uj_xg08o&hl=en&sa=X&ei=kMHKU_ukLIH17AaTg4HIBg&ved=0CEAQ6AEwAw#v=onepage&q=equator&f=false] pg 151. 7/19]//kmc

An important decision in the development of any space elevator is where to connect it

AND

international waters will require new international treaties (Fig. 6.3).

**No miscalc or escalation—every crisis ever disproves and neither side would launch**

 * Quinlan 9** (Michael, Former Permanent Under-Sec. State – UK Ministry of Defense, “Thinking about Nuclear Weapons: Principles, Problems, Prospects”, p. 63-69) *we don’t endorse gendered language

Even if initial nuclear use did not quickly end the fighting, the supposition of

AND

cosmic holocaust might be mistakenly precipitated in this way belongs to science fiction.

**counter-forcing solves escalation of wars**

 * Mueller 09 –** Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies and Professor of Political Science at Ohio State University (John, “Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda” p. 8, Google Books)

To begin to approach a condition that can credibly justify applying such extreme characterizations as

AND

, weather, and __sheltering, would perish__ during the first month.15

**nuclear deterrence and unidirectional evolutionary trends check the impact**

 * Tepperman 09** — Jonathan Tepperman, Deputy Editor of //Newsweek//, Member of the Council on Foreign Relations, now Managing Editor of //Foreign Affairs//, holds a B.A. in English Literature from Yale University, an M.A. in Jurisprudence from Oxford University, and an LL.M. in International Law from New York University, 2009 (“Why Obama Should Learn to Love the Bomb,” //The Daily Beast//, August 28th, Available Online at http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2009/08/28/why-obama-should-learn-to-love-the-bomb.print.html, Accessed 01-27-2012)

__A growing and compelling body of research suggests that nuclear weapons__ may not, in

AND

__oppressive, but nothing in their behavior suggests they have a death wish__.

**No scenario for great power war – laundry list**

 * Deudney and Ikenberry, 09–** Professor of Political Science at Johns Hopkins AND Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University (Jan/Feb, 2009, Daniel Deudney and John Ikenberry, “The Myth of the Autocratic Revival: Why Liberal Democracy Will Prevail,” Foreign Affairs, NG)

This bleak outlook is based on an exaggeration of recent developments and ignores powerful countervailing

AND

__international system is far more **primed for peace**__ than the autocratic revivalists acknowledge.

**__empirics__ and __longitudinal trends__ – the world is entering a new era of great power peace**

 * Fettweis, 10 –** Assistant Professor of National Security Affairs in the National Security Decision Making Department at the U.S. Naval War College, holds a Ph.D. in International Relations and Comparative Politics from the University of Maryland-College Park, October 27, 2010 (Christopher J., D//angerous Times?: The International Politics of Great Power Peace//, Georgetown University Press, ISBN 978-1-58901-710-8, Chapter 4: Evaluating the Crystal Balls, p. 83-85)

The obsolescence-of-major-war vision of the future differs most drastically

AND

that the rules by which international politics are run may indeed be changing.

**Even the creators of nuclear winter theory acknowledge that nuclear war could never wipe out everyone**
**Robock, 10 –** Professor in the Department of Environmental Scienes at Rutgers University (Alan, May/June 2010“Nuclear Winter”, WIREs Climate Change, (Alan, Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, “Nuclear Winter,” WIREs Climate Change, May/June, Wiley Online Library via University of Michigan Libraries)

__While it is important to point out the consequences of nuclear winter, it is__

__AND__

consequences of nuclear winter are extreme enough without these additional effects, however.

====**The Robock et al studies assume 5,000 megatons are used and produce 150 teragrams of smoke—that’s 95% of the total world arsenal which means it’s only credible with a US-Russian war using 100% of current arsenals**====


 * ROBOCK et al 2007** (Alan Robock Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, USA Luke Oman Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, USA Now at Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA Georgiy L. Stenchikov Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, USA, “Nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals: Still catastrophic consequences,” JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, July 6, American Geophysical Union via University of North Carolina Libraries)

We do not conduct detailed new studies of the smoke and dust emissions from nuclear

AND

emitted by the use of 1/3 of the current nuclear arsenal.

**But we won’t use them all and some won’t detonate**

 * MARTIN 1982** (Dr Brian Martin is a physicist whose research interests include stratospheric modelling. He is a research associate in the Dept. of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Australian National University, Current Affairs Bulletin, December, http://www.uow.edu.au/arts/sts/bmartin/pubs/82cab/index.html)

What fraction of the 11,000Mt would be exploded in a major nuclear war

AND

depending on whether the war occurs suddenly or builds up gradually.[48]

**No nuclear winter—150 teragrams of smoke is the key threshold**

 * ROBOCK et al 2007** (Alan Robock Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, USA Luke Oman Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, USA Now at Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA Georgiy L. Stenchikov Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, USA, “Nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals: Still catastrophic consequences,” JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, July 6, American Geophysical Union via University of North Carolina Libraries)

Figures 5 and 7 also show temperature and precipitation time series for the 50 Tg

AND

classified as nuclear “winter ,” they would still be severe and unprecedented.

**US first strike will succeed**

 * LIEBER AND PRESS 2006** (Keir A. Lieber, the author of War and the Engineers: The Primacy of Politics Over Technology, is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame.Daryl G. Press, the author of Calculating Credibility: How Leaders Assess Military Threats, is Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania, “The Rise of US Nuclear Primacy,” Foreign Affairs, March/April, http://www.dartmouth.edu/~dpress/docs/Press_Rise_US_Nuclear_Primacy_FA.pdf)

For almost half a century, the world’s most powerful nuclear states have been locked

AND

shadow of U.S. nuclear primacy for many years to come.

**Even the newest scientific data doesn’t support nuclear winter**

 * SEITZ 2011** (Russell, served as an Associate of The Center for International Affairs and a Fellow of the Department of Physics at Harvard. He is presently chief scientist at Microbubbles LLC, Nuclear winter was and is debatable, Nature, 7 J U LY 2011, vol 475)

Alan Robock’s contention that there has been no real scientific debate about the ‘ __nuclear__

__AND__

__unseasonably small as to call the very term ‘nuclear winter’ into question__.

**Nuke winter won’t happen even if the theory is correct—arsenals have changed**

 * DUNNING 2011** (Brian, Computer Scientist and award-winning science writer/blogger, “Nuclear War and Nuclear Winter,” Skeptoid #244, Feb 8, http://skeptoid.com/episodes/4244)

Other cataclysmic events have proven that the nuclear winter scenario is not at all far

AND

... Who wants to be accused of being in favor of nuclear war?"