Avi+&+Joann

Note: 1AC impact scenarios/cards are subject to change, but the advantages will still be Multilateralism and Transition

1ac transition

 * Contention 1 is transition**

Cuban reforms are inevitable but the loss of external investment risks economic and social collapse – offering normal trade relations is vital

 * Ashby 13,** Senior Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs. He served in the U.S. Commerce Department's International Trade Administration as Director of the Office of Mexico and the Caribbean and acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of Commerce for the Western Hemisphere(Timothy, "Preserving Stability in Cuba After Normalizing Relations with the United States – The Importance of Trading with State-Owned Enterprises" 3/29/13, Council on Hemispheric Affairs, http://www.coha.org/preserving-stability-in-cuba-timothy-ashby/)//AD

Cuba under Raúl ....SOEs.

Cuban collapse destroys the global war on terror and makes conflicts in ehotspots around the globe more likely – specifically risks war over Korea, Africa, and Taiwan

 * Gorrell, 5 -** Lieutenant Colonel, US Army, paper submitted for the USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT (Tim, “CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS?” [] **GWOT=Global War on Terrorism**

Regardless of the succession, .......post-Castro Cuba?

Hotspots all risk escalation to global nuclear war
Bosco 2006 (a senior editor at Foreign Policy magazine, David, July 2006, “Forum: Keeping an eye peeled for World War III” [])

The understanding ........or China would respond militarily.

Korean war escalates and goes nuclear
STRATFOR ‘10 (International Think Tank, “North Korea, South Korea: The Military Balance on the Peninsula,” http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100526_north_korea_south_korea_military_balance_peninsula, May 26, 2010)

So the real issue is the .......much further.

So does Africa
Glick ‘7 - Senior Middle East Fellow – Center for Security Policy (Caroline, “Condi’s African Holiday”, 12-12, [|http://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/home.aspx?sid=56&categoryid=56&subcategoryid=90&newsid=11568])

__ The Horn of ____ ..... __ Sudan and Kenya.

Taiwan conflict causes extinction
Global Times, 11 - Major Chinese English newspaper. Interviewer: GT reporter Wang Wenwen. Lu Yuan is deputy secretary-general of the PLA Academy of Military Sciences and Robert Farley is a professor at the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce in the University of Kentucky. (“Sino-US war unlikely but not impossible”, Global Times, 11/15/11, http://www.globaltimes.cn/NEWS/tabid/99/ID/684012/Sino-US-war-unlikely-but-not-impossible.aspx)//TL

Editor's Note:

A recent report released by the ......it might be inclined to use those assets to pre-empt the US attack.

Independently, enforcing the embargo itself undermines the war on terror

 * Johnson, et al, 10** – Andy Johnson is a director in the national security program at The Third Way (“End the Embargo of Cuba”, The National Security Program, 9/6/10, [|http://content.thirdway.org/publications/326/Third_Way_Memo_-_End_the_Embargo_of_Cuba.pdf)//EX]

Keeping the .........for engaging Cuba.

Greater focus and resources to counter-terrorism is vital – WMD terrorism risks are increasing

 * Clark, 13 -** Bruce Clarke is a retired Army Colonel with extensive strategic, operational and tactical experience. He is widely published on a myriad of strategic and operational subjects. Immediately prior to his retirement from the Army, Colonel Clarke was the Director of US National Security Studies at the US Army War College(Bruce, The Examiner, “ The end to the war on terrorism--really?” 5/28, [])

Unfortunately this ambitious .... they get them.

This risks extinction
Ayson 10 - Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 33.7, InformaWorld)//BB

But these two nuclear worlds—....... response.

US leadership is unsustainable without a highly visible commitment to multilateralism

 * Lake, 10–** Professor of Social Sciences, distinguished professor of political science at UC San Diego (David A., “Making America Safe for the World: Multilateralism and the Rehabilitation of US authority”, [|__http://dss.ucsd.edu/~dlake/documents/LakeMakingAmericaSafe.pdf__])//NG

The safeguarding ........ to a new world order.

The plan is a powerful symbol of that commitment

 * Burgsdorff, 9–** Ph. D in Political Science from Freiburg University, EU Fellow at the University of Miami (Sven Kühn von, “Problems and Opportunities for the Incoming Obama Administration”, [|__http://aei.pitt.edu.proxy.lib.umich.edu/11047/1/vonBurgsdorfUSvsCubalong09edi.pdf__])//NG

6.3 How would the international community react? ...... //steps towards effective multilateralism.//

The alternative to multilateralism is unilateral militarism – the plan establishes a model for hemispheric diplomacy that sustains US leadership
Grandin 10 – teaches history at New York University and is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences (Greg, “Empire's Senescence: U.S. Policy in Latin America,” //New Labor Forum//, 19:1, Winter 2010, pg. 14-23)//SJF

Washington’s relations ...... the U.S.’s fall.

The plan creates a credible model for multilateral conflict resolution
Dickerson 10 – Lieutenant Colonel, US Army, paper submitted in fulfillment of a Master of Strategic Studies Degree at the US Army War College (Sergio M, “UNITED STATES SECURITY STRATEGY TOWARDS CUBA,” 1/14/10, http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a518053.pdf)//SJF At the international ... peace for years to come.

Reliance on unilateralism will collapse US leadership and cause global wars with weapons of mass destruction
¶ Unilateralism is the wrong ...... Concerns over economic stability, limited resources and security have divided us. Now is the time to create rather than divide common ground.
 * Montalván, 10** - a 17-year veteran of the U.S. Army including multiple combat tours in Iraq, master's of science from Columbia University's Graduate School of Journalism (Luis, “Multilateralism is Essential for Peace in the 21st Century” Huffington Post, 4/23, [])

Multilateralism prevents nuclear war with rising Asian powers
- unilat -> mil backlash b/c Asian powers want to rise - but multilat solves that – coop with cina
 * __ Kugler, 6 __–** Professor of World Politics at Claremont Graduate University (Jacek, “The Asian Ascent: Opportunity for Peace or Precondition for War?”, [])//NG

Given the fundamental ...... anticipated from a nuclear war

Solvency
The option .......the nations of the Americas.
 * The unconditional offer of normal trade relations boosts US-Cuban relations and fosters a stable transition**
 * Koenig, 10** – US Army Colonel, paper submitted for a Masters in Strategic Studies at the US Army War College (Lance, “Time for a New Cuba Policy” [])

Vivanco 6 - LLM from Harvard Law School, Americas director of Humans Rights Watch (Jose Miguel, “Restraint, not force, will bring change to Cuba”, humans rights watch, 12/22/06, [], google scholar)//KW
 * Any step short of unconditional removal won’t create the same symbol of multilateralism**

This reluctance ...... Cuba stop looking like David.


 * Diaz-Canel won’t change anything**
 * Wilkinson, 13** – chair of the International Institute for the Study of Cuba (Stephen, “ What Will a New Generation of Leadership Mean for Cuba?” 3/6, [])

A: Stephen Wilkinson, .... is to wake up to the fact that waiting for the Castros to die is a waste of time."

CSG ’13 (Cuba Study Group, Restoring Executive Authority Over U.S. Policy Toward Cuba February 2013, http://www.cubastudygroup.org/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=45d8f827-174c-4d43-aa2f-ef7794831032)
 * Continued embargo empowers Cuban repression against its own people, promoting inequality and disposability**

Helms- .... transitions to democracies and market economies.xi


 * Lifting trade barriers doesn’t force neoliberalism on Cuban society – Latin American study proves that countries determine their own fates based on the shortcomings of past regimes**
 * Cato Institute ‘09** - public policy research organization — a think tank – dedicated to the principles of individual liberty, limited government, free markets and peace. Its scholars and analysts conduct independent, nonpartisan research on a wide range of policy issues. (Cato, “Cato Handbook for Policymakers: 7th Edition”, Cato, 2009, [] ) //CW

Perhaps __the biggest ............. United States.__

The status quo is structurally improving Goklany 9— Worked with federal and state governments, think tanks, and the private sector for over 35 years. Worked with IPCC before its inception as an author, delegate and reviewer. Negotiated UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Managed the emissions trading program for the EPA. Julian Simon Fellow at the Property and Environment Research Center, visiting fellow at AEI, winner of the Julian Simon Prize and Award. PhD, MS, electrical engineering, MSU. B.Tech in electrical engineering, Indian Institute of Tech. (Indur, “Have increases in population, affluence and technology worsened human and environmental well-being?” 2009, [] ) 3. Trends in Human Well-being .... (Goklany 2007a). Other indicators of human well-being that improve independently with affluence and time are access to safe water and sanitation (see below), literacy, level of education, food supplies per capita, and the prevalence of malnutrition (Goklany 2007a, 2007b).