AFF 1

Plan

The United States federal government should substantially increase career and technical education formula grants for public secondary education, including a Career and Technical Education Pathways Trust Fund supplemented by Social Innovation Financing.

ADV 1: State Budgets

State budget shortfalls slow economic growth and ensure they lack sufficient revenue to fund pensions

Donlan 17 [Thomas G. Donlan, editor at Barron’s, “There’s a Hole in State Pensions,” Feb 11, 2017, http://www.barrons.com/articles/theres-a-hole-in-state-pensions-1486794298]

Left unchecked, state pensions will be the next subprime mortgage crisis --- investors are already downgrading state credit

Booth 17 [Danielle DiMartino Booth, President of MoneyStrong, former Federal Reserve insider, March 24, 2017, “Pension Crisis Too Big for Markets to Ignore,” Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-03-24/pension-crisis-too-big-for-markets-to-ignore]

That collapses the US economy

Reeves 3/24 [Jeff Reeves is a stock analyst and executive editor of InvestorPlace.com. His commentary has also appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, USA Today, and the Wall Street Journal network, “Your pension could be at the center of America's next financial crisis,” March 24, 2017, http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/finance/325564-the-pension-crisis-will-be-americas-next-financial-crisis]

Trump is uniquely inclined towards diversionary war – irrational character

Foster 16 [Dennis M., professor of international studies and political science at the Virginia Military Institute, 12/19/16, “Would President Trump go to war to divert attention from problems at home?,” http://inhomelandsecurity.com/would-president-trump-go-to-war-to-divert-attention-from-problems-at-home]

That goes nuclear

Street 16 [Tim, fellow of the Sustainable Security Programme at the Oxford Research Group, previously researcher with the British American Security Information Council, Ph.D. from Warwick University, 11/30/16, “President Trump: Successor to the Nuclear Throne,” http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/publications/briefing_papers_and_reports/president_trump_successor_nuclear_throne

Independently, economic collapse could spark a major war with Russia
Bruno, 6/27 - MA International relations @ The University of Toronto. Industry analyst and served as a United Nations officer in North Africa. Analyst in the global investment banking sector for a leading international advisory group responsible for putting sustainability and corporate responsibility on the finance map; specializing in aerospace, transportation, energy, and mining sectors. (Alessandro, "The Next Stock Market Crash Could Be Around the Corner," Lombardi Letter, 6/27/17, https://www.lombardiletter.com/next-stock-market-crash-spell-economic-collapse/13134/)//DK

Federal CTE funding critical to avoid impending budget crisis and stimulate economic growth

CCD 17, [Published by the American Association of Community Colleges, 6-23-2017, "Governors support CTE, job-training funding – Community College Daily," Community College Daily, http://www.ccdaily.com/2017/05/governors-support-cte-job-training-funding/]

Federal stimulus key to kickstart growth --- fiscal policy has more leverage than monetary policy

Bryan 16 [Bob, Business Insider, “Only one thing that can jumpstart the global economy right now — but no government is willing to do it,” Feb 22, 2016, http://www.businessinsider.com/fiscal-stimulus-could-jumpstart-economy-2016-2http://www.businessinsider.com/fiscal-stimulus-could-jumpstart-economy-2016-2]


CTE stimulates economic growth through a staggering multiplier effect and rescues state budgets

Ogul 17 – writer for Orlando Sentinel (David, “How to improve a state economy through technical education”, 2/17/17, Orlando Sentinel, http://www.orlandosentinel.com/brandpublishing/forstudentsnotprofit/os-how-to-improve-a-state-economy-20170217-story.html//GHS-AK)

States funding conflicts with balanced-budget requirements and downgrade their creditworthiness --- only federal block grants solve

Gamage 10 [David Gamage, Assistant Professor, University of California, Berkeley, School of Law (Boalt Hall), “Preventing State Budget Crises: Managing the Fiscal Volatility Problem,” California Law Review, 98 Calif. L. Rev. 749, June, 2010, lexis]

1ac cyber

ADV 2: The Workforce

Scenario 1 is Cyber

The defensive workforce gap makes the US unprepared for a large scalecyber attack

Kim 5/19/17 (Anne Kim - Senior Writer at the Washington Monthly. She is also a senior fellow at the Aspen Institute’s initiative on financial security and a senior fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute. Before joining the Monthly, Anne served as senior policy strategist at the nonprofit CFED, as the economic program director at the think tank Third Way, and as legislative director and deputy chief of staff to Rep. Jim Cooper – “Trump Is Ignoring America’s Looming Cybersecurity Threat” – 5/19/17 - http://washingtonmonthly.com/2017/05/19/trump-is-ignoring-americas-looming-cybersecurity-threats/)/TK

The risk of a damaging cyber attack on the grid is coming – that can cause a US military retaliation

Knake 4/3/17 (Robert K. Knake - Whitney Shepardson senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. His work focuses on Internet governance, public-private partnerships, and cyber conflict. Knake served from 2011 to 2015 as director for cybersecurity policy at the National Security Council – “A Cyberattack on the U.S. Power Grid” – 4/3/17 - https://www.cfr.org/report/cyberattack-us-power-grid)/TK

Cyber-attacks warrant nuclear military retaliation

“- we fuckin” - Tyler
Robert Tilford 12, Graduate US Army Airborne School, Ft. Benning, Georgia, “Cyber attackers could shut down the electric grid for the entire east coast” 2012, http://www.examiner.com/article/cyber-attackers-could-easily-shut-down-the-electric-grid-for-the-entire-east-coa
**we reject ableist and offensive language

CTE is key to STEM education

Wolfe 6/26/17 (Alexis Wolfe - science policy analyst and writer for FYI and is currently working on expanding FYI’s multimedia portfolio. Prior to joining AIP, she was an Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education Fellow and NOAA Sea Grant Knauss Marine Policy Fellow at the U.S. Department of Energy, focusing on science communication – “Career and Technical Education Emerging as Vehicle for STEM in Trump Era” – 6/26/17 - https://www.aip.org/fyi/2017/career-and-technical-education-emerging-vehicle-stem-trump-era)/TK

Improving STEM education in primary and secondary schools is key to a high level workforces that closes the Cyber gap

Kay et al 12 (David J. Kay - Research Analystin the Center for Technology andNational Security Policy (CTNSP), Institutefor National Strategic Studies,at the National Defense University;Terry J. Pudas - Senior ResearchFellow in CTNSP; Brett Young -Research Assistant in CTNSP – “Preparing the Pipeline:The U.S. Cyber Workforcefor the Future” – August 2012 - http://ctnsp.dodlive.mil/files/2013/07/DH-072.pdf)/TK

Scenario 2 is Agriculture

Severe food shortages are coming now – collapses the international order

Heneghan 15 [Carolyn, freelance writer with experience in food and agriculture systems around the world, “Where food crises and global conflict could collide” Fooddive 1/22/15, http://www.fooddive.com/news/where-food-crises-and-global-conflict-could-collide/350837 //GK]

Food shortages trigger nuclear escalation

FDI 12 (Future Directions International, a Research institute providing strategic analysis of Australia’s global interests; citing Lindsay Falvery, PhD in Agricultural Science and former Professor at the University of Melbourne’s Institute of Land and Environment, “Food and Water Insecurity: International Conflict Triggers & Potential Conflict Points,” http://www.futuredirections.org.au/workshop-papers/537-international-conflict-triggers-and-potential-conflict-points-resulting-from-food-and-water-insecurity.html)


US agriculture ships internationally – that’s key to global food security

Edmark 15 [Dave, U of A System Division of Agriculture, “Food security vital for national interests, world markets,” Cattle News Network 10/23/15, http://www.cattlenetwork.com/news/food- security-vital- national-interests- world-markets //GK]

Cte provides graduates for the ag program

Willis 17 [Victoria, masters in agricultural education from Clemson University, “Nurturing our Established Roots: The Smith-Hughes Act as a Model for Agricultural Education Career Preparation” The Agricultural Education Magazine Vol 89 Issue 4, January 2017, pg 27 //GK]

CTE ensures agricultural literacy and causes an influx of new agricultural workers

Trexler 16 [Tiffany, masters of science in agricultural education from California State University, Chico, “THE ADDITION OF AN AGRICULTURE MECHANICS PATHWAY TO BEAR CREEK HIGH SCHOOL” CSU Chico spring 2016, pgs 12-15 //GK]
- improves student perception of agricultural careers, and increases enrollment in urban schools

ADV: 3 Solvency

The plan galvanizes private sector support for secondary CTE education through social innovation financing and competitive grants

Hasak 16 [Jonathan Hasak is a Manager of Public Policy and Government Affairs at Year Up, graduate of the Harvard Graduate School of Education and a former Teach for America corps member who taught in the Oakland Unified School District, “A summer surprise: the case for CTE reform,” 7/1/16, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/education/286111-a-summer-surprise-the-case-for-cte-reform]


Social innovation financing reduces runaway spending and encourages competition

Costa 11 [Kristina Costa, Special Assistant at the Center for American Progress. 10-19-2011 "Financing Tools for Social Innovation," Center for American Progress, https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/general/news/2011/10/19/10435/innovation-for-the-public-good-financing-tools-for-social-innovation/] /adres

AFF 2

Plan

The United States federal government should substantially increase career and technical education formula grants for public secondary education, including a Career and Technical Education Pathways Trust Fund supplemented by Social Innovation Financing.

Adv 1 – Agriculture

Severe food shortages are coming now – collapses the international order

Heneghan 15 [Carolyn, freelance writer with experience in food and agriculture systems around the world, “Where food crises and global conflict could collide” Fooddive 1/22/15, http://www.fooddive.com/news/where-food-crises-and-global-conflict-could-collide/350837 GK]
World War III is unimaginable for many, but some experts believe that not only is this degree of global conflict imminent, but it may be instigated not by military tensions, oil and gas, or nuclear threats, but instead by, of all things, food. As it stands, countries across the globe are enduring food crises, and the U.N.’s Food & Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that about 840 million people in the world are undernourished, including the one in four children under the age of 5 who is stunted because of malnutrition. Assistant director-general of U.N. FAO Asia-Pacific Hiroyuki Konuma told Reuters that social and political unrest, civil wars, and terrorism could all be possible results of food crises, and “world security as a whole might be affected.” Such consequences could happen unless the world increases its output of food production 60% by mid-century. This includes maintaining a stable growth rate at about 1% to have an even theoretical opportunity to circumvent severe shortages. These needs are due to the growing global population, which is expected to reach 9 billion by 2050 while demand for food will rise rapidly. Where the problems lie Exacerbating this issue is the fact that the world is spending less on agricultural research, to the dismay of scientists who believe global food production may not sustain the increased demand//. According to American Boondoggle, “The pace of investment growth has slowed from 3.63 percent per year (after inflation) during 1950–69, to 1.79 percent during 1970–89, to 0.94 percent during 1990– 2009.” Decreased growth in agricultural research and development spending has slowed across the world as a whole, but it is even slower in high-income countries. Water scarcity is another problem, including in major food-producing nations like China, as well as climate change. Extreme weather events are having a severe effect on crops, which have been devastated in countries like Australia, Canada, China, Russia, and the U.S., namely due to floods and droughts. An Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change recently warned that climate change may result in “a 2% drop each decade of this century,” according to RT. Rising food costs also contribute to poor food security across the world as prices remain high and volatile. Higher food costs inhibit lower socioeconomic people’s access to food, which contributes to the FAO’s disturbing figure of global malnutrition. In addition to an inability for people to feed themselves, poverty can also reduce food production, such as some African farmers being unable to afford irrigation and fertilizers to provide their regions with food. Still another issue for decreased food production is the fact that many farmers are turning crops like soy, corn, and sugar into sources for biofuel rather than edible consumption, which means these foods are taken away from people to eat. Could these shortages lead to a major global conflict? Studies suggest that the food crisis could begin as early as 2030, just a short 15 years from now, particularly in areas such as East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Both regions have significant problems with domestic food production. Some experts believe that, to secure enough food resources for their populations, countries may go to war over the increasingly scarce food supply. This could be due in part to warring parties blocking aid and commercial food deliveries to areas supporting their enemies, despite the fact that such a practice breaks international humanitarian law. Conflict also leads to lack of food supply for populations as people become displaced and forced from their homes, jobs, and income and thus cannot buy food to feed themselves. Displaced farmers are also unable to produce their normal crops, contributing still more to food shortages in certain countries. Food insecurity is a major threat to world peace and could potentially incite violent conflict between countries across the world. Thus, the U.N. and other governmental bodies are desperately trying to find ways to solve the problem before it becomes something they cannot control.

US agriculture surplus allows massive exports – that’s key to global food security

Edmark 15 [Dave, U of A System Division of Agriculture, “Food security vital for national interests, world markets,” Cattle News Network 10/23/15, http://www.cattlenetwork.com/news/food- security-vital- national-interests- world-markets GK]
Improving global food security should be a U.S. priority because it is the right thing to do and it will create new market opportunities for American agriculture in the long run, said Stephanie Mercier, a senior policy and advocacy adviser for the Farm Journal Foundation. A more stable world Recognizing a U.S. tradition of aiding in world food relief dating back to World War I and including the Marshall Plan after World War II, Mercier noted that encouraging food security also promotes a more stable world. “The World Bank has done research that shows a country facing extreme poverty and hunger faces a much higher probability in any given year of seeing internal conflict erupt either in the form of a civil war or a military coup,” she said. Mercier noted that the U.S. ability to help countries improve their economies has frequently led to the creation of new opportunities for U.S. exports. Fifty percent of U.S. agricultural exports go to developing countries//, she said, and six of the world’s fastest growing economies are in sub-Saharan Africa.Over time, we know that a lot of the beneficiaries are agricultural systems that have now become significant commercial markets for U.S. food and agricultural exports,” she said. “These kinds of transitions do not happen overnight. They take decades sometimes.” Mercier cited two nations that have realized major gains because of agricultural exports from the U.S. Guatemala experienced an approximately tenfold increase in agricultural imports from the U.S. between 1990 and 2014 with the value rising from $120 million to $1 billion. Corn, wheat and dairy exports were major components of the activity, she said, which would not have happened at that level without increasing demand in that part of the world and lower tariffs due to trade agreements. Ghana has benefitted through the U.S. Department of Agriculture Food for Progress program to improve health and nutrition practices for more than 28,000 women and children in rural areas, and the Feed the Future program is helping farmers there obtain credit. Mercier said U.S. agricultural exports to Ghana have risen from $21 million to $168 million since 1990, largely from poultry, rice and wheat. The U.S. private sector has also launched its own efforts. Mercier said the New Alliance for Food Security includes 120 companies spending $8 billion to build infrastructure and supply chains in Africa.

Food insecurity escalates – causes cyclical conflict and political unrest – it’s a conflict multiplier

Hendrix and Brinkman 13 [Cullen S., associate professor of international studies at Denver University, and Henk-Jan, chief of policy, planning and application at United Nations Peacebuilding Support Office, “Food Insecurity and Conflict Dynamics: Causal Linkages and Complex Feedbacks” Stability: International Journal of Security & Development, 2(2): 26, pg 2 GK]
A nuanced relationship between food insecurity and violence emerges: while (increases in) food insecurity can be a source of grievances that motivate participation in rebellion, acute and severe food insecurity has a dampening effect on conflict behavior. Communal conflicts tend to occur against a backdrop of chronic food insecurity, though the effects of rapid changes in food access are less clear. Regarding urban unrest, the picture is somewhat more straightforward: higher consumer prices, particularly for food and fuel, are associated with increases in urban protest and rioting, which can have adverse effects for institutions and influence policy decisions that affect the whole country. However, it is usually not the most foodinsecure that riot, but rather those with comparatively better access. This is partly because of interactions with other variables, such as political regime (which affects the likelihood that demonstrations or riots are repressed) and incentives for the government to shield consumers from higher international prices. Equally important is the role of weak institutions, whose presence implies that there are few mechanisms through which conflicts can be managed. Likewise, lower costs to collective action faced by urban populations can play a part in accelerating conflict. The resulting instability can itself cause further price increases, contributing to a vicious cycle and protracted crisis.// If food insecurity can be a threat multiplier for conflict, improving food security can reduce tensions and contribute to more stable environments. Yet, food security interventions – both in the form of national level programmes and international efforts to address acute insecurity via emergency assistance or chronic insecurity through support programmes – can also become a source of conflict and, if they are not designed and implemented correctly, further distort food markets and suppress local production. But if done right, the vicious cycle of food insecurity and conflict can be transformed into a virtuous cycle of food security and stability that provides peace dividends, reduces conflict drivers, such as horizontal inequalities2, enhances social cohesion, rebuilds social trust, and builds the legitimacy and capacity of governments. In many cases, these results are generated through the process of interventions themselves, for example, through the inclusion of various groups in community-driven programmes.

The need for skilled agriculture workers will continue to grow – improving CTE is critical to ensure a sufficient amount of graduates

Willis 17 [Victoria, masters in agricultural education from Clemson University, “Nurturing our Established Roots: The Smith-Hughes Act as a Model for Agricultural Education Career Preparation” The Agricultural Education Magazine Vol 89 Issue 4, January 2017, pg 27 GK]
Considering retirement rates, the need to supply the STEM pipeline, and the worlds’ expected population growth to reach 9 billion by 2050, we as a society need agricultural education more now than we ever have. We, as an industry, are charged to provide for the world’s growing population, and the only way to accomplish this task is to provide a steady flow of graduates that are prepared to be innovative, think critically, and solve problems within the industry and workforce. Agricultural education programs need to continue to create a rigorous, positive and respected program image in order to attract more participation and interest, while aiming to increase student retention. Student enrollments in high school vocational education were increasing in the 1960s and 1970s, but in the 1980s enrollments began a downward spiral. Data indicates that after decades of decline, secondary career and technical education enrollment is currently on the upswing in image and enrollment (High School Vocational Education). While vocational education’s image is on the upswing, it is still important to continue promoting the attributes, successes, and career preparation opportunities available within the agricultural education program.//Industry and business professionals expect our graduates to possess literacy, numeracy, communication, technology, and general employability skills gained through participation in their high school program. “Business persons and community representatives are calling for input into standards development and assessment for high school programs and graduates, which should include standards targeted toward both academics and workplace” (High School Vocational Education). While the Smith-Hughes Act was introduced many decades ago, much can still be learned and applied to present day agricultural education classrooms. By closing in on the gap between classroom curriculum and industry needs, students will be better prepared to enter the workforce. Students will apply classroom knowledge and life skills to a real world setting to contribute to society. Professional development and inservice opportunities to learn and collaborate with industry professionals should be made available to teachers to assist with the needs for college and career preparation in the 21st century. Agricultural education’s history of student career preparedness will continue to give the program a positive image within the educational system and local community. The roots of agricultural education have long been nurtured and established because of the Smith-Hughes Act and what the agricultural education program was built upon still greatly contributes to our program’s purpose and its impact on society by developing skilled students prepared to take on the challenges of the future for the betterment of our society.

CTE ensures agricultural literacy, improves student perception of agricultural careers, and increases enrollment in urban schools – that causes an influx of new workers to sustain the agricultural sector

Trexler 16 [Tiffany, masters of science in agricultural education from California State University, Chico, “THE ADDITION OF AN AGRICULTURE MECHANICS PATHWAY TO BEAR CREEK HIGH SCHOOL” CSU Chico spring 2016, pgs 12-15 //GK]
One of the reasons there is a need to expand CTE in general, but agricultural programs especially, is to combat agricultural illiteracy. Many people are unaware of what agriculturalists do on a day to day basis which provides a need to educate. “Expansion of high school agricultural education programs in urban areas, including nontraditional urban high schools, provides multiple benefits to students and the future of agriculture in general.” (Henry, Talbert and Morris, 2014, p. 1) As described by Henry, Talbert and Morris, urban students tend to hold a negative view of agricultural related jobs, viewing such careers as less rewarding compared to other fields. If we can educate urban communities on the secondary level we can change this negative association. From interviewing school administrators and agriculture teachers, Henry et al. found that including agriculture courses in urban schools not only enhanced students’ knowledge of agriculture but also heightened student comprehension regarding higher education opportunities and careers in agriculturally related fields. Need for trained workers Another reason there is a need to expand CTE programs is the lack of skilled employees entering the work force. The educational reforms of the 1990’s and the passage of the No Child Left Behind Act in 2002 led to the belief that economic success hinges on having a four year degree (The Abell Foundation 2005). This belief has led to a gap in the job market of qualified skilled labors. As previously stated, there will be a four percent growth rate in the number of welding positions between 2014 and 2024 adding 14,400 jobs nationwide and a combined addition of 87,400 jobs in plumbing, sheet metal, and machinist jobs according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg and the New York Times have all reported that there will be an increased need for welding positions in the next five years as well. According to Philips (2014), the average age of a welder in the country is 55 and many are nearing the age of retirement. It is estimated that in the next five years 25% of skilled welders will be retiring (Kendrick 2014). The American Welding Society projects that by 2020 there will be a shortage of 290,000 welders including: inspectors, engineers, and teachers (Philips, 2014; Kendrick, 2014). This shortage provides an opportunity for young people entering the job market in the coming years. One major attraction of the welding profession is the compensation rate. According to Cohen (2015), entry level welders earn on average $16.50 an hour and rates increase to an average of $30 an hour for experienced welders. Specialty welders can earn anywhere from $50 an hour to upwards of $100 an hour (Cohen, 2015). Students could start their welding careers in as little as nine months after completing a certification program through a community college or trade school. As stated on their website, San Joaquin Delta College (n. d.) offers a certificate program that prepares students for employment in entry level welding positions. By offering agriculture mechanics at Bear Creek, students could jump start this certification process because classes are articulated with San Joaquin Delta College, thus students are eligible to receive dual credit. This is a viable option for students who do not want to go to a four year university but want to receive high compensation. The combination of the need to educate urban students about agriculture and the gap in the job market has created the need to bring Agriculture Mechanics to Bear Creek High School. At Bear Creek High School, only 24% of students complete requirements to enter a UC or CSU after graduation according to the California Department of Education School Accountability Report Card 2015. This means that roughly three quarters of the student population will be going to a community college, trade school, military, or working after they graduate. This is a large percentage of students that would benefit from the opportunities that the addition of an agriculture mechanics pathway would present. The students that will benefit most are those that do not do well in more traditional classes or those who do not know what they want to do after graduation. The advantages of adding an agriculture mechanics pathway to Bear Creek High School have been outlined in this review of literature. An overview of the agricultural education model was presented, several studies gave evidence as to the opportunities that CTE provides, and the cultural/community benefits of expanding agricultural programs were addressed. It is due to all of these factors that the need for a mechanics pathway was researched and planned, with the intent of rapid adoption.

Urban agriculture is stagnating now – lack of resources and limited course offerings stand in the way of enrollment

Russell 16 [Rebecca A., masters of science in agricultural education, “PERCEPTIONS OF SECONDARY AGRICULTURAL EDUCATION PROGRAMS, THE NATIONAL FFA ORGANIZATION, AND AGRICULTURAL CAREERS OF STUDENTS NOT ENROLLED IN A HIGH SCHOOL AGRICULTURAL COURSE” University of Kentucky Theses and Dissertations – Community & Leadership Development 2016, pgs 1-3 //GK]
Urban areas hold a large volume of students, yet the focus of agricultural studies in those areas may not be as strong as rural areas. Frick, Birkenholz, Gardner, & Machtmes (1995) found rural high school students have a higher content knowledge of agriculture than urban high school students. They also concluded, while knowledge is limited for urban high school students, the urban student’s perceptions of agriculture were still fairly positive. While perceptions may be fairly positive, urban high school students rarely have the opportunity to visit with farmers to develop their perceptions through real-life experience (Frick, Birkenholz, Gardner, & Machtmes, 1995). With a decline in rural farmland, urban areas are growing; increasing the percentage of youth which are removed from the farm. Farms may not be as conveniently located in urban areas as farms would be in a rural area; therefore, urban high school students could have difficulty finding transportation to farms. It is important to educate youth to keep positive perceptions of agriculture in heavily populated areas. Secondary agricultural education programs provide youth with reliable information about the agricultural industry. These programs enhance student’s agricultural knowledge to help develop individuals who are ready to face future agricultural challenges. Secondary Agricultural Education Programs Secondary agricultural education programs provide students an opportunity to gain a wide variety of knowledge of agriculture and the opportunities within the industry. These program areas are offered as elective classes, therefore, students must choose to enroll in them. Program areas within secondary agricultural education programs include, but are not limited to, horticulture and plant science systems, animal science systems, environmental science and natural resources systems, and agricultural power, structural, and technical mechanics (Kentucky Department of Education, 2015). Secondary agricultural education programs use the three component model utilized by the National FFA Organization (Figure 1.1). The three component model consists of “classroom/laboratory, SAE, and FFA (National FFA Organization, 2015). According to the National FFA Organization (2015), the classroom component should contain contextual, inquiry-based instruction and learning through an interactive classroom and laboratory. Agriculture teachers are encouraged to provide students the learning environment to adhere to the classroom component.

The aff solves – it puts students in urban schools on the agricultural career path

Russell 16 [Rebecca A., masters of science in agricultural education, “PERCEPTIONS OF SECONDARY AGRICULTURAL EDUCATION PROGRAMS, THE NATIONAL FFA ORGANIZATION, AND AGRICULTURAL CAREERS OF STUDENTS NOT ENROLLED IN A HIGH SCHOOL AGRICULTURAL COURSE” University of Kentucky Theses and Dissertations – Community & Leadership Development 2016, pgs 5-7 //GK]
In order to continue to have youth interested in agriculture, students must be educated about the importance of, and opportunities in, the agriculture industry. Diversity in the agricultural workforce should depict the diversity of the U.S. population. Urban areas are growing; increasing the percentage of youth which are removed from the farm. With a limited knowledge of agriculture, urban high school students may also have a limited knowledge of career opportunities in the agricultural industry. Underrepresented audiences in agricultural careers are limited, and a large barrier to these limitations is the lack of information about career opportunities in agriculture (Outley, 2008). Urban high school students perceive careers in agriculture as being for people who have an agricultural background (White, Stewart, & Linhardt, 1991). Esters & Bowen (2005) found students who did not choose an agricultural career cited a lack of career opportunities as a reason. Changing these perceptions is imperative to the success of agriculture programs. Merely taking part in a recruitment workshop can reflect more positive attitudes of students about agriculture as a career from before and after the workshop (Fraze, Wingenbach, Rutherford, & Wolfskill, 2011). General exposure to agricultural subjects could change the minds of many youth. Demographics in urban high schools are largely diverse. It is important for urban high school students to be educated about the career opportunities within the agricultural workforce. Diversity in the agricultural workforce should depict the diversity in the United States. In order to have these accurate representations, colleges of agriculture must first recruit under-represented students in to agricultural degree programs, which can largely be done in urban areas (Fraze, Rutherford, Wingenbach, & Wolfskill, 2011). Some students who graduated from an urban agricultural high school indicated a lack of underrepresented audiences in agriculture, which kept students from pursuing an agricultural career (Esters & Bowen, 2005). Educating students about career opportunities available in agriculture could, in turn, increase diversity in the agricultural workforce. Understanding the barriers of students enrolling in agriculture-related classes, FFA, or entering agriculture related careers is important for the future of the agriculture industry. Vincent, Henry, & Anderson (2012) found structural barriers that exist for under-represented students enrolling in college of agriculture could start with the culture of the agricultural industry portrayed by the teacher. Identifying student attitudes toward agriculture can provide information about whether students would have an interest of entering an agriculture-related career (Osborne & Dyer, 2000). Exposing students to agricultural opportunities and increasing the number of underrepresented students studying in agricultural majors is necessary (Foster & Savala, 2012). Agricultural colleges are now trying to target a higher number of urban students; therefore, urban, under-represented students should be the populations which these colleges should turn recruitment efforts (White, Stewart, & Linhardt, 1991). Yet, it is still difficult for colleges of agriculture to recruit diverse populations of youth (Fraze, Wingenbach, Rutherford, & Wolfskill, 2011). New recruitment strategies need to be addressed in order to reach the everchanging urban population.

Renewed urban investment in agriculture ensures long term food security within cities

Brown et al 2 [Katherine H. Brown, founder of City Sprouts, an inner-city garden and food security project in Omaha, Nebraska; Martin Bailkey, professor in the department of Urban and Regional Planning at the University of Wisconsin, Madison; Alison Meares-Cohen, Northeast Program Manager of Heifer International; Jack Smit and Joe Nasr, directors of the Urban Agriculture Network in Washington, DC; Terri Buchanan, executive director of The Sustainable Food Center, Austin, TX; and Peter Mann, international coordinator for WHY (World Hunger Year). “Urban Agriculture and Community Food Security in the United States: Farming from the City Center To the Urban Fringe” Urban Agriculture Committee of the Community Food Security Coalition, February 2002, pgs 11-12 //GK]
Urban agriculture is a significant economic activity, central to the lives of tens of millions of people throughout the world. There is ample evidence here and abroad, that the potential of urban agriculture for food security is very real. Only now is its full potential beginning to be tapped. The United Nations Development Program estimates that fifteen percent of food worldwide is grown in cities and this figure could be significantly expanded.15 Certainly urban agriculture has been an important factor for subsistence among city dwellers caught up in regional conflicts or in the throes of economic readjustment. When transportation lines to the countryside are disrupted or when consumers cannot afford to buy fruits and vegetables, gardens sometimes offer urbanites the only buffer against starvation. In Russia, food production on large-scale rural farms fell by 40 percent since Soviet times, making the cost of food very high on the new free market. Many Russians have survived through access to dachas (small plots of land given to citizens), which produce 30 percent of the total food grown in the country and 80 percent of the vegetables.16 Between 1970 and 1990, the number of Moscow families engaged in food production increased from 20 percent to 65 percent. This is one striking example of a powerful shift toward urban agriculture worldwide, especially in response to economic crisis. While Russia has begun once more to export grain in 2001, small-scale urban growing remains central to people’s basic food security. Even in less dire circumstances, urban agriculture presents considerable benefits. For instance, currently 14% of Londoners already grow some food in their gardens. It is estimated that Londoners could produce up to 232,000 tons of fruits and vegetables, or 18% of the population’s daily nutritional needs.17 In the United States, a 1993 report estimated that one third (696,000) of the 2 million farms are located within metropolitan areas. These farms produced 35% of all crops and livestock sales.18At a time when rural farms are going out of business at an unprecedented rate in the U.S., the number of urban and peri-urban farms is actually increasing. In 1998, 15,700 new small farms were registered with state agriculture departments; most of these were located within suburban areas.19 People are often surprised about how much produce can be grown on the small plots and acreages usually found in cities. Of course, yields depend on factors such as the weather, the amount of available land, soil conditions, seed species, the availability of a dependable water source, and the gardener’s skill. But even given these constraints, the use of intensive methods of growing can maximize the efficiency of small-scale operations, as well as providing much of a household’s yearly vegetable needs and nutritional requirements.20 Urban commercial gardens using raised beds, soil amendments, and “season extenders” such as row cover and greenhouses produce yields that are generally 13 times more per acre than those of rural farms.21 This potential is well illustrated by The Food Project in urban and suburban Boston. Staff and volunteers annually raise more than 120,000 pounds of fresh vegetables on 23 acres. This produce is distributed to shareholders in their Community Supported Agriculture (CSA) project and to guests in Boston shelters and soup kitchens.22 In addition to vegetables, urban agriculture includes the production of honey (beekeeping), worms for composting and soil amendments, poultry and eggs, fish, and meats such as rabbit, chicken and goat.

Independently, that aids 31 million Americans living in poverty – absent the aff, starvation is a guarantee

Brown et al 2 [Katherine H. Brown, founder of City Sprouts, an inner-city garden and food security project in Omaha, Nebraska; Martin Bailkey, professor in the department of Urban and Regional Planning at the University of Wisconsin, Madison; Alison Meares-Cohen, Northeast Program Manager of Heifer International; Jack Smit and Joe Nasr, directors of the Urban Agriculture Network in Washington, DC; Terri Buchanan, executive director of The Sustainable Food Center, Austin, TX; and Peter Mann, international coordinator for WHY (World Hunger Year). “Urban Agriculture and Community Food Security in the United States: Farming from the City Center To the Urban Fringe” Urban Agriculture Committee of the Community Food Security Coalition, February 2002, pgs 6-7 //GK]
One preventable consequence of our food system is hunger in the midst of plenty. An unacceptable number of Americans, including many children, do not get enough to eat on a daily basis. A USDA document on U.S. food security released in 2000 reports that even in the United States, where food is generally plentiful, safe, nutritious, and relatively inexpensive, 31 million Americans were food insecure in 1999, including approximately 12 million children. 5 Poverty, in all its ramifications, is the root source of much food insecurity. In 2001, more than 31 million people (11.3% of the population) lived below the poverty line, meaning that if they were a family of four, they earned less than $17,960 each year. 6 People who are living in poverty are likely also to experience food insecurity: children, inner-city residents, single parent female-headed households, people of color, people living with disabilities, the elderly, and farm workers. Each year in the past decade more and more families reported that they ran out of food and didn’t have money to buy more. This represents one in ten households in the United States. Hunger and homelessness rose sharply in major American cities in 2001, according to the Conference of Mayors’ 27-City Survey. Requests for emergency food assistance climbed an average of 23 percent and requests for emergency shelter an average of 13 percent in the 27 cities surveyed. Over the same period, resources available for emergency food assistance failed to keep up with demand in most cities.7 Effects of Food Insecurity Food insecurity, whether related to actual food insufficiency, nutritional quality, or anxiety about a future lack of food, affects the quality of life of urban residents in farreaching ways. Inadequate nutrition is clearly associated with school and work absences, fatigue, and problems with concentration. Hunger and poor nutrition are also linked to the increased incidence and virulence of infectious diseases, many of which-- such as TB--are on the rise in US cities. Furthermore, the lack of a nutritious diet is a well-known risk factor for any number of chronic diseases such as diabetes, hypertension, and heart failure. Even when cash is available to low-income urban residents, food is not always so readily accessible. Many supermarkets have closed or moved from the inner city due to complex market forces related to the increasing impoverishment of their clientele and the deterioration and depopulation of once vibrant communities. Unfortunately, it is not unusual for many remaining inner-city grocery and convenience stores to hike prices, even on basic foods. “A study in Detroit found that grocery stores near downtown and closer to lower-income neighborhoods charged on average 10 percent more than those on the beltway. Another study of all food stores in three low -income zip codes in Detroit found that only four out of five stores carried a minimal “healthy food basket” (with products based on the food pyramid).”8 Low-income consumers have less food shopping choices than middle-income consumers across the country: they have fewer retail options, limited transportation options, and often face higher prices at chain supermarkets.9 Thus ironically, people on limited incomes in cities are likely to pay more for their food than wealthier shoppers in higher income neighborhoods. The range, freshness, and quality of foods are also often compromised in inner-city groceries, thus further limiting customers’ maximal choices for nutritious and affordable meals. As the locus of poverty shifts to urban areas, an expanded urban agriculture program could build community food security by improving the quantity, quality, regularity and nutritional balance of food intake, thereby reducing hunger and improving nutrition.

The plan galvanizes private sector support for secondary CTE education through social innovation financing and competitive grants

Hasak 16 [Jonathan Hasak is a Manager of Public Policy and Government Affairs at Year Up, graduate of the Harvard Graduate School of Education and a former Teach for America corps member who taught in the Oakland Unified School District, “A summer surprise: the case for CTE reform,” 7/1/16, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/education/286111-a-summer-surprise-the-case-for-cte-reform]

In less than 16 days, the United States Congress will adjourn for their summer recess. The backlog of legislation waiting for lawmakers during an election year makes it unlikely our nation’s youth should expect legislative action that helps increase their employability skills anytime soon. Yet given the difficult economic reality young graduates face today and declining labor force participation, Congress can help improve career pathways right away for all our youth if they reauthorize the Perkins Career and Technical Education Act.
Signed into law by President Bush in 2006, the Perkins Act aspired to provide individuals with the academic and technical skills needed for success in a skills-based economy. Despite the law’s contribution to strengthening career and technical education (CTE) infrastructure, however, young people often enter CTE programs that are not always aligned to employer demandand which continue to suffer from a pejorative perception as second-rate programs for students tracked out of four-year colleges.
In order for CTE programs to become a real stepping-stone to opportunity and success and a pathway to help employers address their need for skilled employees, CTE education must be more responsive to our shifting economic landscape. Seamless alignment to skills demanded in the labor market could especially help ensure CTE programs are attracting Opportunity Youth – young people neither in school nor employed – and preparing them for gainful employment and lifelong learning.
The good news is that reforming CTE already has bipartisan support. Policy recommendations to expand the pathways from skills development to work are included in Speaker Ryan’s new agenda as well as in Hillary Clinton’s. Moreover, the House Education and Workforce Committee just this past week released a new bill to reauthorize Perkins and strengthen the quality of CTE programs. Given the potential to immediately improve labor market and life outcomes for all our youth, Congress should not wait until after the presidential election to reauthorize Perkins and instead consider the following five reforms.
First, empower states. The federal government distributes money through formula grants to high schools and community colleges and does not require states to identify economic priorities when funding CTE programs. As a result, states do not play an active role in helping determine which CTE programs to fund. Increased autonomy would allow states to select and fund high-quality CTE programs that are actually aligned with regional priorities for economic growth.
Second, use set-aside money to fund a national CTE Pathways Trust Fund. Too many secondary and postsecondary schools do not provide career pathways to students that increase their employability skills.Through a competitive national innovation grant, Congress can make funds available to school districts, superintendents, and community colleges across the country. Similar to California’s Career Pathways Trust, these grants can be made available for grade nine through fourteen career pathway programs that enhance local career pathways that connects schools with business entities; develops career-relevant pathways aligned to high growth sectors; and provides pathways to postsecondary education aligned with regional economies.
Third, use Social Innovation Financing (SIF) to expand student access to CTE programs. Social Innovation Financing is an innovative government approach that leverages private-sector resources to finance government investments. Congress can use unspent SIF money to develop a Pay For Success initiative that increases community college students’ access to quality CTE programs through expansion of work-based job placements and competency platforms that engage in real-world experiences.
Fourth, create a national private sector led campaign to invest in CTE infrastructure. There is currently no coordinated private sector campaign at the federal level that invests in CTE. As part of Perkins reauthorization, Congress can create a commission that leverages existing collateral of national campaigns such as Grads of Life. This commission could be put in charge with creating a new private sector campaign to secure employer commitments to invest in CTE programs.
And finally, empower intermediary organizations to support CTE programs. Inconsistent levels of involvement by the private sector in CTE has led to programs that are not aligned with emerging in-demand occupations in high growth industry sectors. Congress can explicitly clarify through Perkins reauthorization the importance of intermediary organizations to convene cross-sector stakeholders and help mobilize funding and resources to make coordination between CTE programs and the workforce more cohesive.
Despite aspirations to climb ladders of opportunity, not all young people have been afforded a quality education or the dignity of work. Congress has an opportunity this summer to immediately help improve career pathways for our nation’s youth. They should use their remaining days in session to reauthorize the Perkins Career and Technical Education Act.

Linking high schools to CTE programs administered by the private sector ensures the development of a workforce that overcomes looming productivity and skills gaps

Jackson and Hasak 14 [John H. Jackson is the president and CEO of the Schott Foundation for Public Education, held leadership positions at the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People and has served as an adjunct professor of Race, Gender, and Public Policy at the Georgetown Public Policy Institute, and Jonathan Hasak is a recent graduate of the Harvard Graduate School of Education and Manager of Public Policy and Government Affairs at Year Up, “Look Beyond The Label: Reframing, Reimagining, and Reinvesting in CTE,” American Educator, Fall 2014, https://www.aft.org/ae/fall2014/jackson_hasak]

2. Address the Student-Readiness and Teaching-Training Gaps
Despite being held accountable for student academic growth in reading and mathematics under the federal Carl D. Perkins Career and Technical Education Act, CTE teachers have limited time to work on academic concepts, since the majority of instructional time is spent delivering technical skills. To that extent, many certified teachers either have not been properly trained or are simply struggling to teach both technical expertise and academic skills.
Link High Schools to CTE Programs: Too many students attend CTE programs without basic academic content knowledge. The need for remediation for students, especially those whose skills will not qualify them for current high-quality CTE because of entrance exams, makes the job extremely difficult for teachers. To balance academic and technical experience in classrooms, one solution is to allow students to take remedial courses at nearby high schools for academic credit. With the majority of classroom time spent delivering technical skills that are relevant for specific jobs, more applied learning and time to support academic concepts such as quantitative reasoning and data collection are needed. By having one teacher who can cover technical content and another who can reteach basic academic skills, students would have a more balanced educational experience and an opportunity to become better professionals who are not dependent on one single technical skill set alone.
Attract High-Achieving Students: CTE programs must attract more than just students who prefer to circumvent four-year colleges. Framing these pathways around upward social mobility for all students would be more politically resonant than calls to rectify inequalities in CTE. By attracting high-achieving students, CTE programs would diversify the social capital of their student population and acquire more financial resources; ultimately, it would also lead to the mixed grouping of students, which has proven most effective in raising academic performance.14 By signaling its dedication to making its students attractive to prospective employers, turning them into good citizens, and providing an excellent education, these programs would offer a compelling message to any student eager for an employer-recognized credential that would lead to a meaningful job.
3. Involve the Business Community
With some 14 million students enrolled in CTE programs in nearly 1,300 public high schools and 1,700 two-year colleges, many of these students are being shortchanged in their career and college preparation. As such, an emerging productivity and skill gap has emerged, with 45 percent of American employers blaming entry-level vacancies on a skills shortage.15 And while President Obama has asked for $1.1 billion in his proposed 2015 budget to reauthorize the Perkins Act,16 employers continue spending more than $400 billion a year in formal and informal employee training.17 Quite simply, most CTE programs have failed to translate the technical expertise of their training systems into jobs for students.
The stakeholders most integral to ensuring students’ future employment are business leaders. We must engage the business community and help it see the untapped potential of millions of young men and women. While employers across the country are already collaborating with vocational programs, there is still need for more cross-sector collaboration on a larger scale. But employers must do more than just offer half measures and identify a skills shortage as a critical problem; they should actively help resolve the nation’s skills problem through a more systemic approach.
In Michigan, for example, new legislation was recently proposed to give students and families more choice in substituting CTE courses for electives. Admirable as it is, the legislation does not attempt to build or integrate a clear route for students to pursue college or career; rather, it hopes that trading Algebra II for a CTE course will somehow improve career readiness. And even when the federal government announced in February 2014 that it would provide $148 million for a manufacturing innovation institute in Detroit, it is difficult not to see the program stuck in the past when it is technical, not manufacturing, jobs that are growing fastest in Michigan.
Help the Business Community Become Active Collaborators: Making the relationship between education and employment more transparent is indispensable in reimagining CTE; efforts to do so should integrate work and learning opportunities for students with clear occupational positions and salaries in mind. Educators can accomplish this by illuminating skills taught in classrooms as foundations for skills needed for employment, therein transcending abstract schooling experiences into something more personal—something that can ignite student curiosity, creativity, and imagination.
Convincing business leaders to see themselves not as charitable givers but as active partners in CTE requires helping them see that CTE programs could reduce their costs. As an example, the business community could lobby local and state governments to provide tax incentives for hiring CTE students. In turn, CTE programs would make hiring qualified employees easier since such programs could lead to a pipeline of talent through internships, apprenticeships, and summer jobs.
Connecting employers and career opportunities to CTE students would directly target a skills and productivity gap that, if not addressed, will continue to affect economic productivity for students and employers alike.
Use Public-Private Partnerships as Tools to Engage Businesses: To constantly update equipment and curricula, and to develop teachers who can incorporate new techniques in their training, we need more public-private partnerships (PPPs). With shrinking government budgets and limited financial resources, PPPs enable the private sector to improve learning outcomes for students by providing education services beyond public finance. Case studies conducted in Latin America have shown that some of the benefits from PPPs for schools are greater efficiency, increased student choice, and wider access to education.18

Social innovation financing reduces runaway spending and encourages competition

Costa 11 [Kristina Costa, Special Assistant at the Center for American Progress. 10-19-2011 "Financing Tools for Social Innovation," Center for American Progress, https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/general/news/2011/10/19/10435/innovation-for-the-public-good-financing-tools-for-social-innovation/] /adres
Last week we examined why strong leadership is essential to public-sector innovation. An agency leader who wants to develop more innovative solutions to social problems can expect resistance on many fronts, both political and logistical. But no obstacle looms larger than the problem of financing. Public-sector innovators have to convince a risk-averse—and financially constrained—political system to take a chance on new ideas. The financing hurdle can be overcome with a little creativity, however. Successful new and emerging social-innovation financing models are an encouraging sign for agency leaders, community advocates, and financiers alike. There are three key principles for successful social-innovation finance. First, innovation requires appropriate levels of financial backing at each stage of the process, with small sums available for promising ideas and larger sums for proven innovations that merit scaling up. Second, money must follow success, rewarding new ideas that work and pulling funding away from less-successful innovations. Finally, it sometimes makes sense for government funds to be supplemented by contributions from private-sector nonprofits—especially for the most experimental ideas. Let’s consider each principle in greater detail. Apply “stage-gate” funding The so-called stage-gate approach ensures the right level of financing is made available to programs at different stages of their evolution. This method was used by the Department of Education’s Investing in Innovation Fund, otherwise known as the i3 Fund. The smallest i3 grants, up to $3 million each, were made available for programs that used an innovative approach to improve education outcomes but lacked sufficient data to merit scale. The largest grants, up to $25 million each, were targeted for innovations that already had proven results and needed support to scale up their efforts and increase their reach. Social Innovation Fund grants, which have been given out by the Corporation for National Community Service since 2010, incorporate an additional innovation. CNCS grants are given to intermediaries who then sub-grant them to others. As a result, government policymakers are insulated somewhat from the political fallout associated with failed ventures. Stage-gate funding has found success in other governments as well. In the United Kingdom, the National Health Service is piloting Regional Innovation Funds. The funds have invested about a third of their total $350 million on the 250 most promising projects, initially granting $15,000-$70,000 to new ideas. The rest of the funds are focused on scaling up the best interventions that boost outcomes and also save public money. These include innovations that help move special-needs children from hospital to home five months sooner, saving the health service more than $2,000 a day. Another innovation that received funding for scaling up was inhalers that whistle when used correctly. That means that the 50 percent of Britons who incorrectly used traditional inhalers are now much less likely to have an asthma attack. Make sure money flows to success The second financing principle of targeting money to things that work needs to be anchored in a commitment to data-driven outcome measurements. If successful programs know they will attract more funding, there is a much greater incentive for innovative approaches to emerge. One example is the work of the United Kingdom’s Greater Manchester region to reduce criminal recidivism. This program brought together 10 local authorities, 10 programs targeting young offenders, two magistrate courts, and a prison to pool their funding and apply it to the approaches that were proven to work best. Instead of funding more than 200 different, small-scale efforts, funds were moved to the 10 programs most successful at reducing reoffending among youth. Think outside the traditional budget box In order to make financing innovative social programs truly effective, agencies should engage the support of other sectors. Both i3 and the Social Innovation Fund require grantees to demonstrate they can access funds from other sources, like foundations. This encourages social innovators to look beyond government for resources and allows a relatively small amount of federal money to leverage far greater amounts of private capital. For instance, $50 million in SIF funding will be complemented by at least an additional $150 million in nongovernment funds. New York City’s most untested innovations have often been backed by funding from foundations and private sources. The Fund for Public Schools, for example, has raised around $150 million over the last five years from the private and philanthropic sectors to support initiatives such as the innovation zone that allows schools to try new approaches. If some of these approaches prove unsuccessful, political leaders are insulated from the claim that public money was wasted. Arranging financing for social innovation work is but one crucial part of the puzzle. Next week we’ll consider what makes an agency’s culture most able to innovate.

The plan creates an effective model of recruitment and retaining teachers

Thomas Wilkin and Godfrey Nwoke 11 - *Assistant Professor in the Department of Career and Technology Teacher Education at New York City College of Technology of the City University of New York** Professor and Chair of the Department of Career and Technology Teacher Education at New York City College of Technology of the City University of New York. (“Career and Technical Education Teacher Shortage: A Successful Model for Recruitment and Retention”;Spring;http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/ejournals/JSTE/v48n1/wilkin.html)//pk
Abstract The role of Career and Technical Education (CTE) as a major source of skilled workers for the American economy and a vital component of American education is well established.Several recent studies show that when CTE programs combine rigorous academic standards and industry-based technical content, the result is higher academic achievement and better economic outcomes for an increasing number of high school students. In spite of the documented successes and achievements of CTE high schools, studies show that many high school programs are faced with serious challenges, not the least of which is the difficulty in attracting qualified CTE subject teachers. This article examined one highly successful CTE teacher recruitment effort in New York that involves the city department of education, the teachers union, and a public university. The article focuses on the key elements of the teacher training program as a model for effective CTE teacher recruitment and retention. Background Career and Technical Education (CTE) has been a mainstay in the American education system for the past century. Looking forward, it is clear that the journey ahead will be very different from the one already traveled. For CTE to continue to be a relevant and major contributor to the successful lives and careers of students, many challenges must be addressed and overcome. Primary among these challenges is the need to provide highly qualified and highly competent CTE teachers who are able to prepare students to be successful in their careers and in their lives. In an effort to highlight and address this challenge, the Association for Career and Technical Education (ACTE) dedicated the January 2010 issue of its official publication, Techniques (Volume 85, No. 1), to the problem of CTE teacher recruitment and retention. The purpose of this paper is to examine one highly successful long-term CTE teacher preparation effort in the New York City Public School system. We will first briefly examine CTE from a national perspective, noting recent trends in the field. Secondly, we will report on the status of CTE education within the New York City Public School system. We will then focus on the Success Via Apprenticeship Program (SVA), a unique and valuable cooperative endeavor between the New York City Department of Education, the United Federation of Teachers (UFT), and the City University of New York (CUNY). We will conclude with recommendations for the future. National Trends in CTE From a national perspective, Kazis (2005) in “Remaking Career and Technical Education for the 21st Century” draws several broad conclusions about CTE in the United States. Kazis notes that, while shrinking, CTE remains a significant component of the U.S. high school experience and appears to help less motivated and at-risk students stay in school and graduate. He further notes that the overall rigor of technical education in high school has improved, but there is more to do and many obstacles to overcome. Kazis’s (2005) article which was supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Ford Foundation refers to a consistent message that runs through seven short essays which comprise the work. The message is: CTE at the high school level must either change or die. Change may mean shrinkage in absolute size. It will certainly mean shifts in the kind and range of programs offered students and in the expectations placed on students, faculty, and administrators. The future may be different in urban and suburban regions, where the economic bases and the educational resources available for CTE can be quite different. The future is also likely to vary with the differential ability of state and regional CTE systems to meet rising expectations for quality and performance (p. 3). The author notes in conclusion, that the greatest influence on CTE will come from the politics of education reform in the states and nationally, as well at the kinds of pressure and support the stakeholders for CTE and other reform movements bring to bear on public opinion and on the educational establishment. In a related article, Medrich (2005) notes that for CTE to remain valued, certain steps must be taken. The steps include combining career-focused education with a strong academic core; removing less compelling program concentrations and eliminating weak course offerings. In addition, focus must be placed on the fundamentals, such as, creating an engaging curriculum; developing instructional strategies that are appropriate to the subject matter; providing support for students less prepared for rigorous coursework; and designing quality assessments. The overall national focus centers on improving the quality of CTE by employing new and creative approaches to the content and process of career and technical education. CTE Teacher Shortage The shortage of CTE teachers in the United States is a significant problem. Documented shortages exist in various states across the country. The state of Michigan, in a July 22, 2009 letter from Governor Jennifer Granholm, issued an exemption to retiree earnings in areas of critical shortages for 2009-2010 which includes numerous CTE position designations. In Virginia, the State Dept. of Education has designated Career and Technical Education a critical teacher shortage area since 2003. Other states that have identified CTE as a critical teacher shortage area include South Dakota, Iowa, and New York. Pytel, (2008) in the article “Shortage of Vocational Workers” notes the coming shortage of skilled vocational workers and comments on efforts by Des Moines (Iowa) Area Community College to address this need. On the website “Technology Education in Connecticut” (Kane, 2009) reports that the CTE teacher shortage undermines career and technical education and could potentially impact economic growth. In the policy brief, “Teacher Shortage Undermines CTE” (Connely, 2009) notes that there has been an increase of almost six million students in CTE courses in just seven years, yet many existing teacher education programs have been eliminated. The number of CTE teacher education programs fell from 432 to 385 (from 1990 to 2000)—a decrease of 11%. Also, there is a growing number of teacher retirements affecting the supply of CTE teachers. In 2009, the National Commission on Teaching and America’s Future estimated that “during the next four years, we could lose a third of our most accomplished educators to retirement.” Several states, including Oregon, Alabama, New York, and California, to name but a few, are already engaged in unique and creative ways to address this critical shortage. Kiker and Emeagwali (2010) profiled programs designed to address the problem in several states including Kentucky, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. Reese (2010) reviewed the different pathways that states have used to meet their needs for qualified CTE teachers. Reese noted that both traditional CTE teacher preparation programs and alternative programs that recruit industry career changers can prepare future teachers to the highest quality by employing experienced teachers as mentors and models of excellence. New York State has been active in addressing the CTE teacher shortage in a variety of ways since the mid-1980s. Currently, there are three pathways to obtaining CTE teacher certification in the State of New York. The first pathway requires successful completion of an approved CTE teacher preparation program. There are only three such approved programs in New York State public universities, namely, New York City College of Technology of the City University of New York in Brooklyn; the State University of New York at Oswego; and Buffalo State College of the State University of New York in Buffalo. The second pathway which is an alternative route to certification is known as Transitional A for career changers. The Transitional A certificate authorizes a school district to hire an individual with at least four years of experience in the trade to begin teaching while completing the requirements for the initial teaching certificate. The initial certificate requirements including a few college courses, a certification test, and mentoring all of which must be completed within three years. The third pathway to CTE teacher certification is through Individual Evaluation. In this pathway, a prospective CTE teacher who meets the minimum certification requirements including trade experience, college course work, and the certification test, submits his or her credentials to the State Education Department for evaluation and certification. In addition to the pathways already mentioned, individuals may also apply and receive New York State certification as CTE teachers if they are from a U.S state that has Interstate Reciprocity with New York, have non-U.S. credentials; or possess the National Board Certification. New York City’s CTE Teacher Recruitment and Retention Model: The SVA Program For over two decades, New York City has been successful with recruiting and retaining CTE teachers through a unique program known as the Success Via Apprenticeship (SVA) Program. The SVA program, originally called the Substitute Vocational Assistant Program, was established in 1984 as a collaborative project of the New York City Department of Education, the United Federation of Teachers (UFT) which is the teachers’ union, and the City University of New York (CUNY). The program was designed to prepare highly motivated graduates of CTE high schools to become CTE teachers. It is a comprehensive five and one half year experience that includes three components, namely, a salaried teaching internship, college level academic study, and relevant work experience in industry. The program specifically seeks out candidates from minority populations, including young women, who are pursuing careers in non-traditional trade and industrial occupations such as electrical installation, automotive maintenance, and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) maintenance. Participant Eligibility and Selection Prospective participants of the SVA program must be recent graduates of a New York City CTE or comprehensive high school. An applicant must be recommended and nominated by his or her trade teacher and selected by a selection committee of the school headed by the assistant principal for CTE. Priority is given to applicants who come from minority groups in terms of race, ethnicity, or gender (males or females pursuing non-traditional careers). Each applicant must have an outstanding academic record and be eligible for admission to the City University of New York (CUNY) either by virtue of Regents test scores, Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) scores, or passing CUNY’s basic skills tests of reading, writing, and mathematics. At the beginning of each recruitment cycle which is usually in early spring, application forms are sent to CTE schools soliciting applications especially in those subject areas of current or foreseeable teacher shortage. Selection of applicants in each high school is done by a committee including trade teachers, building administrators, and representatives of the teachers’ union. Selected applicants are required to apply to CUNY and pass the CUNY basic skills tests in reading, writing, and mathematics unless they have received satisfactory scores in the Regents examinations or the SAT. Applicants who meet testing requirements are scheduled for an interview by SVA program administrators. During the interview, an important eligibility criterion is that the applicant must demonstrate interest in becoming a teacher of his or her CTE trade subject. Program Components The SVA program is composed of a Teaching Internship, Industrial Work Experience, and Post-Secondary Academic Study. In the teaching internship component of the program, participants spend five months in a CTE high school during each year of program enrollment. While in the school, the SVA is assigned to a mentor teacher under whom the intern learns about unit and lesson planning, lesson presentation, classroom management, and school dynamics. Right from the first year, the intern is given ample opportunity to plan and teach lessons under the guidance and supervision of the mentor. Each intern is required to teach for one full semester under supervision during the third or fourth year to fulfill the student teaching requirement for State certification. Career and technical education subject teachers seeking the initial teaching certificate in New York State must have a minimum of four years of full-time work experience. In order to meet this requirement through the work experience component of the SVA, participants are placed with employers in business and industry in work environments that match each participant’s career or trade area. Over the years, program administrators have developed a network of employers in business, industry, and government agencies as job sites for placement of participants. These include automotive service shops, electrical contractors, electronics and computer service companies, hospitals, and museums, among many others. Each participant completes seven months of work experience in his or her trade during each year of program. The work experience is supervised by on-the job trainers and closely monitored by a program administrator who makes regular visits to the job site to evaluate the participants’ progress. In the post-secondary academic study also known as the college component; participants are enrolled in teacher education courses at New York City College of Technology. Each participant is required to complete 44 credits of coursework during the five and one half years in the program (a total of 62 credits is required for State certification). The curriculum consists of courses in liberal arts and sciences, professional courses in career and technical education, and student teaching. Program Uniqueness Program administrator involvement and monthly meetings are among the unique aspects of the program. Program administrators handle the recruitment, interviews, placement, and supervision of participants in school and job sites. They conduct regular school site and job site visits and evaluations of all participants. In addition, program partners, administrators and participants meet during mandatory monthly meetings. Administrators deliver reports on various components of the program including school sites, work sites, etc. The college representative also reports on general college and academic matters affecting participants. At each meeting, a selected group of participants make presentations on topics of interest to them. The required dress code for all participants is business attire. Elements of Program Success The SVA program has been very successful in recruiting, preparing, and retaining young CTE teachers in the New York City public high schools. This success is attributable to four key factors, namely, compensation, contractual commitment, administrator involvement, and high performance expectations. The high schools from which participants graduate play a crucial role in identifying students who have the interest and potential to succeed as CTE educators. By working with the schools, SVA program administrators not only know subject areas where there are potential shortages, they are also able to project need and identify potential replacements. While enrolled in the program, participants are paid 90% of the contractual salary rate for a starting teacher (currently $45, 000 per year). The salary rate is very competitive and, in some cases, far exceeds what a recent college graduate earns in certain jobs and, certainly, the annual salary of a high school graduate. As employees of New York City Department of Education, program participants are also eligible for many of the benefits that a certified teacher is entitled to under the teachers’ union contract, including pension, health, dental, and optical insurance, as well as annual leave benefits. Successful program completion also means a higher salary step at initial full-time employment as a certified teacher. The SVA program pays participants’ college tuition and fees for course work leading to the New York State initial teaching certificate. Many participants take advantage of this educational opportunity and complete the Bachelor of Science in Education (B.S. Ed.) degree within the five years of participating in the SVA program. In return for all the benefits of participating in the SVA program, each participant is required to sign a letter of commitment to work for five years as a CTE teacher in New York City public schools. If a participant who successfully completes fails to meet the contractual obligation to work in New York City, the Department of Education has the recourse to seek reimbursement of all tuition and fees paid on behalf of the participant. The SVA program has very high standards of performance and conduct in all three components. Participants must receive excellent evaluations by school site mentors, college supervisors, and work site supervisors to maintain their status in and successfully complete the program. In the college component, for example, participants are held to the same academic standards as other degree-seeking students of the teacher preparation program. They must maintain a minimum grade point average of 2.50 in college courses or risk being dismissed from the program. Participants who receive poor evaluations in any of the three components of the program are brought before a personnel committee which handles all disciplinary problems and is comprised of program administrators and representatives of the teachers’ union. If a participant is found to be not meeting program standards of performance or conduct, he or she is placed on probation and given an opportunity to improve within one academic semester. If there is no improvement after one semester, the participant is dismissed from the program. Regarding evaluation of the overall program, the most recent data indicates that the program has been highly successful. In the last five years, 36 SVA Interns have graduated from the program. Thirty-four (94.4%) were offered and accepted regular teaching positions. Of the 34 that accepted teaching positions, 33 (94%) are currently teaching. SVA Program Limitations Although there are many obvious benefits to the program, some limitations do exist. The most significant limitation to the program’s operation is cost. Considered as a whole, the overall salary and associated employee benefits cost to the program are substantial. Related administrative costs are also incurred on an annual basis. The other primary limitation of the program involves order of magnitude. The number of program completers is relatively small (due to cost constraints) which means that the need for certified CTE teachers in the overall New York public school system is met in a small, incremental manner. Future Directions Successful efforts like the SVA Program can have a major positive impact on the current and future recruitment and retention of qualified CTE teachers. In the future, cooperative efforts between industry and education can yield positive results while at the same time address the cost issues associated with programs such as these.There can be creative approaches to encourage students to pursue careers in teaching CTE subjects. One suggestion could be to attract students with associate degrees in technical areas by offering tuition assistance for the education courses required for certification. A concerted effort could be organized on a state by state basis to actively recruit students pursuing technical associate degrees and provide full or partial tuition assistance support as they pursue their teaching certification. Also, much can be done in the way of simplifying the bureaucracy surrounding the CTE certification process. There are untapped pools of technical talent in industry and the military. If the process to certification were streamlined and made more user friendly, there could be a significant increase in talented and productive CTE teachers.

Dialogical Scenario planning and wind tunneling is good for educators --- imagining future worlds challenges bias, spurs creativity, answers value questions

By Daniel W. Rasmus 9/29/16 (Active National Educator’s Workshop, The Front End of Innovation rewarded U.C. President's Undergraduate Fellowship, some degree in writing. “Scenario planning and the future of education” http://www.seriousinsights.net/media/Scenario%20planning%20and%20the%20future%20of%20education.pdf)masw
Synopsis
In 2006, Microsoft developed a vision for the future of education that reflects the impact technology can have on policy and practice. In this article, Daniel W. Rasmus describes how Microsoft used its Future of Work scenarios to explore possible scenarios for learning in the future. Microsoft used a scenario-planning process to explore education through the lens of work, examining educators, learners, and administrators in the context of creating, synthesizing, absorbing, sharing, and managing information. This approach provided a unique perspective through which to view the application of commercially available software to solve the challenges of learning while concomitantly generating ideas that might not have arisen from a strictly pedagogical perspective.
If education is to contribute to the sustainability of global economies, its institutions will face the same pressure to adapt as the governments, businesses, and communities it serves. Educators will need to face uncertainty in order to embrace the future. In doing so, they will need to create a context for what is known, or thought to be known, as well as a means to explore a wide range of possibilities for what cannot be known. Scenario planning, a strategic process of exploring uncertainty, is a technique designed to challenge assumptions, identify contingencies, anticipate game-changing events, spur creativity, and, most importantly, identify actionable implications that make plans more robust and resilient. If employed as intended, scenario planning can help educators develop innovative responses to strategic imperatives and current and future challenges. The strategic principles that emerge from the scenario-planning process are meant not to be exhaustive but to point toward policy implications for an uncertain future.Scenarios help frame aspirations and create a context for contingencies. Much as today’s technical architectures for learning are driven by an extrapolation of global networkenabled social behavior, education can benefit from policy that creates fluid institutions not ones where the strategy is constantly in flux but ones where policy is adaptive.
In 2004, the business division of Microsoft created a set of scenarios that describe alternative possibilities for the future of work on a rolling ten-year horizon. The scenarios have been applied for a range of purposes, including the development of a vision that anticipates future business situations through the lens of potential social, economic, political, technological, and environmental developments. The scenarios The People-Ready Business Scenario planning and the future of education 2 have also been applied to education and learning as a form of work, creating a unique perspective on how technology may help shape tomorrow’s educational experience. This article presents the processes that led to the Microsoft vision for education, and it suggests how educational leaders may use such processes to elaborate a range of distinctive futures for their own institutional needs. The scenario-planning process Scenario planning is not a deterministic process but an intuitive one based on consensus. Although individuals can reason toward conclusions from within scenario logics, it is not always possible to establish clear causal effects. However, since the process is not meant to provide singular, iron-clad predictions,anydebate about the scenarios provided below would be secondary to their main purpose in illustrating how the process works. By allowing educators to anticipate possible future influences on education, scenario planning can help them become more resilient in the face of change.
Scenario planning begins with uncertainties about the question at hand, in this case, “What will work look like at the end of the next decade?” Explicit agreement on a set of uncertainties can defuse bias and disarm personal agendas, taking particular concepts off the table as ultimately indeterminate. This process reveals a kind of waveparticle duality in concepts of the future, focusing attention on the fluid, wave-like nature of a concept and away from its more deterministic particle form. In crafting an initial response to the key question, a team from the Microsoft Business Division consulted with company representatives from the Office and Windows development teams; with representatives from our education, public sector, facilities, and product planning departments; and with outside experts to develop a list of uncertainties that were critical to the future of work. The original list of uncertainties ran to well over 100 items; after extensive discussion among team members, each member selected their 3 most critical and important uncertainties, which narrowed the final list to fewer than 20 (Exhibit 1 included at end of document). This culling process, common to scenario-planning exercises, sets consensus priorities and develops crucial buy-in for the team that will eventually use these critical uncertainties as elements of, or even characters in, the scenario narratives.
The next step in scenario planning involves identifying extreme possibilities for the various uncertainties and then combining these possibilities in various ways to identifythe combinations that allow for the richest and most diverse narratives. For instance, education may develop into a driving force for innovationwith a leading role in society or it may be marginalized, seen as largely irrelevant, and left to survive on subsistence budgets. If we overlay those dimensions with the less central uncertainty about where and how people will store personal data, we may end up with scenarios describing a strong, bleeding-edge education system in which people keep their data on keychains and, at the other extreme, a weak, struggling education system where people store their data on the Internet. The framework that arises from this pairing is obviously limited; it does not support expansive narratives, nor is it inclusive enough to capture the range of possibilities for other forces. This does not invalidate these uncertainties as important forces, but it disqualifies that pairing as a candidate for the primary strategic drivers that shape the narrative.
In the context of the Microsoft focus on the future of work, we needed to identify uncertainty combinations that would create challenging contexts for the evolution of the workplace. The team settled on the tensions around globalization and organizing principles for the world. The extremes in this construct revolved around acceptance or rejection of a network-centric orientation versus the continuance of hierarchical structures. This pairing created a powerful story framework upon which a set of four vivid scenarios could be constructed (Exhibit 2 included at the end of this document). In creating these scenarios, Microsoft deliberately avoided the identification of precise certainties. The primary motivation for the future of work scenarios was identifying gaps between currently available software and future workplace requirements. With this as a strategic imperative, the definition of predetermined elements, like the McREL (2005) conclusion that “Technology will enable customized learning to occur any time, any place” (4), would have artificially constrained the process — limiting possibilities for scenarios such as Frontier Friction, for example, which imagines a future in which a terrorist act aimed at technology (and specifically at electronic representations of money) precipitates a widespread rejection of technology. Forcing a technology company to imagine such a future does precisely what a scenario should do: Challenge prevailing assumptions that can, if allowed to persist through the process, inhibit the range of other possibilities. The result of such inhibition can be seen in Miller’s (2003) examination of tertiary education for the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, where the graphic clearly illustrates the choice of constraints among conceivable futures (8). Rather than inhibit the range of possible futures, Microsoft chose to let the uncertainties play out against the widest range of interactions; in this way, emergent implications of an uncertainty are more likely to emerge from the interplay of narrative elements, much in the spirit of Schwartz’s (1991) assertion that “Scenario creation is not a reductionist process; it is an art, as is story-telling” (108).
The resulting scenarios have been shared with a wide range of Microsoft customers, including public sector agencies, elected officials, and business leaders. In some cases these conversations have led to deeper insights about Microsoft and it’s thinking; in others, they have helped organizations reflect on their own strategic imperatives and even seeded new scenario-planning processes within customer or partner organizations. They have also offered a framework for understanding possible outcomes for the Microsoft Office Information Worker Board of the Future, a program in which young people, age 17-24, are brought together to help Microsoft better
The People-Ready Business Scenario planning and the future of education 4 understand attitudes about work among the Millennial generation and examine the popular conceptions and misconceptions about this generation (Rasmus 2004, 24). The Board of the Future used the scenarios to play out the implications of survey results and test their predictions about the future of work. Seeing education as work
The Microsoft education vision emerges from its understanding of education and learning as a kind of work; the specifics of that vision are the result of a process called wind tunneling, an intellectual exercise for testing fitness and developing the implications of an idea within the logic of the scenario. Education is an uncertainty in the future of work, but the fitness of educational decisions may be tested in the context of the various scenarios. When strategic considerations are played out against the four scenarios for the future of work, several possible futures emerge for education, each with its own character (Figure 1). Figure 1
Definition: Wind tunnelling Wind tunnelingcan be thought of as an intellectual exercise for testing the fitness of an idea or concept, much as a wind tunnel tests the fitness of an airplane or automobile design. In a wind tunneling exercise, a concept,product, process, or even a persona is placed into a future scenarioandthe team assigned to develop that scenario visualizes how it would be represented, if at all, in that particular future. In the strategic dialogue that generates scenarios, wind tunneling offers a process by which elements of a system can be played against possible futures to reveal thedifferent ways in which those elements might influence, and be influenced by, other factors in the scenario. The process forces the organization to challenge assumptions and fosters creativity in imagining scenarios.
The People-Ready Business Scenario planning and the future of education 5 In Proud Tower, for instance, a world where corporate interests dominate and corporations subsume much of the role now played by government, education is closely aligned with corporate objectives. In this scenario, education must ensure that workers can contribute appropriate levels of value to corporations. Curriculum is targeted toward the requirements of local organizations as those are the most likely employers for graduates. Although travel is not restricted, economic forces motivate people to remain associated with their local employment environment. Colleges and universities are seen not as separate institutions but as part of a continuum of learning and preparation that extends through employment. Students who excel and demonstrate the motivation for higher education receive that education with the expectation that they will later return the corporation’s investment. Early identification of aptitude is seen as a competitive advantage as measures can be taken early in a child’s education to motivate him or her toward local corporate loyalty, avoiding the costs of losing talent to external recruiting.
It is not, however, Proud Tower that drives the Microsoft vision of education as work. Rather, our vision more closely reflects the results of Freelance Planet, a world of expectations that closely mirror current developments in the emergent, networkcentric workplace. In this future, companies divest their non-core competencies until they are holding companies with only brand, money, and partner relationships to manage directly. Partner relationship skills determine an organization’s ability to attract and retain talent, not just through pay but by creating interesting work experiences and environments so workers want to associate with them. Schools in Freelance Planet are dynamic institutions created and funded by affiliations of parents, communities, educators, employers, and regional governments. Their function is to provide students with a wide range of skills to make them competitive in a global labor market, to encourage entrepreneurship and innovation, and to provide an outlet for creative expression. Learning occurs both independently and in collaborative peer groups, and most of it occurs online.
One way to create even more illustrative futures is to populate the potential futures with people who live and work within the logic of the scenario. Although generic individuals can serve as representatives of a future, the best outcomes result from the creation of role-based characters. Roles provide a context for deriving more specific implications within industries and a more dramatic way to drive home the differentiators between various futures. The planning process benefits from populating futures because participants relate to the potential lives of the characters, often resulting in deeper strategic exploration. In the context of the Microsoft process, the roles also act as a means of expanding insights about the personal impact of technology within the industries and institutions that form its customer base. In constructing its vision for the future of education, Microsoft asked students from Eton College to identify characteristics of students who lived in the futures identified in the scenario-planning process; the Future of Work team created narratives based on these characteristics and informed by the logics of the various futures (Exhibit 3,
Wind tunnelling (cont.) In the case of the Microsoft education vision, several areas of technology as well as social and economic forces were wind tunnelled against various aspects of education. Where would learners get information in Proud Tower, and how would that be different in Continental Drift? Who would employ teachers in each of the scenarios? Where would education funding come from? What organization would create curricula? When the various aspects of education had been wind tunnelled, the team developed a perspective on how those elements would fit together. A view of education emerged as the constraints placed on the various elements by the scenario influenced the development of the particular attributes of education in each scenario. Continental Drift, as a world of nationalist and regional bias, has a strong, centralized, government-controlled education system with nationalistic overtones. In Freelance Planet, the tone and character of education is personal; learning results from the interaction of learners within a complex ecosystem where questions often end in debate rather than an answer.
The People-Ready Business Scenario planning and the future of education 6 included at the end of this document). These narratives vividly illustrate the distinctions between futures in terms of culture, attitude, and values. Finally, and most importantly, while educational institutions may formulate a vision based on a scenario they judge to be most plausible or desirable, they also need to consider the development of strategies that are sufficiently resilient, flexible, or adaptable to address more than one possible scenario. The wind tunneling process described above can serve as a foundation for this form of decision making as well insofar as it allows planners to discern the extent to which a single strategic decision may have beneficial outcomes across multiple scenarios. As a further result of this process, Microsoft has identified ten strategic implications for the future of education (Exhibit 4 included at the end of this document).
Conclusion As an instrument of strategic planning, scenario planning can be a way of maintaining competitive differentiation not only for corporations but also for public-sector entities such as educational institutions. For those charged with creating meaningful education policy and practice, it is important to create plans that are resilient and that drive curricula that prepare students for any future they may encounter. As valuable as scenarios are to corporations and to public institutions, it is perhaps this last point that makes them indispensable to education: Educators are preparing students for a future that neither teachers nor students can foresee with certainty. The range of possible futures facing today’s youth and the necessities of global competition obligate education policy makers to exercise peripheral vision at its most acute level to create programs that stretch administrators, educators, students, institutions, and communities to anticipate a range of outcomes rather than settling for easily measured outputs.
In promoting such foresight, scenarios allow educational institutions to consider larger questions when formulating policy decisions. For most educators today, goals are established by the political organizations, public or private, that own the learning environments. The leaders of these organizations and the strategic plans they develop are usually driven by the perceived need for short-term measures of achievement: standardized test scores, funding, external recognition, and reelection, among others. However, strategic plans, as Michael Porter often points out, are not visions (Hammonds 2001), and when short-term policy decisions are divorced from any broader vision, their value is compromised. In this context, scenarios can expand the scope of strategic planning by challenging the assumptions that drive such shortsighted objectives. Scenarios can guide an exploration of values questions — What is the ultimate measure of success in education? — and promote thinking about the social and political goals of education — Is the goal of education to produce citizens prepared and motivated to engage in the political process? To equip workers with the skills to contribute to the private or public sector? To guide people toward The People-Ready Business Scenario planning and the future of education 7 lifelong learning? Educators who use scenarios have not only a means of creating plans that confer competitive advantage but also a vital vehicle for refining their overall mission.
Scenarios can help educators and policy makers develop creative responses to challenges, unveil new opportunities, and avoid the myopiaof simple trend watching. They can also be used to educate constituencies about the work of policy makers, offering engaging illustrations of the long-term implications of change. One of the biggest benefits of scenario planning comes from the strategic dialogue generated during their creation, which moves planning from questions of tactics and strategy to a more comprehensive vision of institutional values and purpose. Exhibit 1: Critical uncertainties for the future of work The Future of Work team collaborated with various stakeholders to create a list of critical uncertainties and suggested polarities (table 1).The categories that make up this list entail a number of questions, including the following: Does globalization continue unfettered, or do ideological, economic, or political forces drive toward a return to regionalization? Do people get to retire, or do they continue to work in order to retain a work identity or to fund a lifestyle, including healthcare? While demographics are more determinate in the ten-year horizon, this question becomes more uncertain at longer timeframes.
Will decision making be ideological or pragmatic?// This question may have a large impact on workforce and immigration policy, in that an ideological framework may shut certain classes of workers out of the economy or create less fluid immigration policy than local, regional, or national interests may dictate if examined in a rational, pragmatic way. Will the organization structure of the world be hierarchical or networked? Perhaps more pointedly, will the world recognize the networked aspects of work and create management practices, representations, and technology that explicitly manage through networks rather than hierarchies? The People-Ready Business Scenario planning and the future of education 8 Polarity A Critical uncertainties Polarity B <table omitted>

We’re using state as Heuristic, only a prior understanding of government can allow us to understand the tools that the government uses

Zanotti ‘14
Dr. Laura Zanotti is an Associate Professor of Political Science at Virginia Tech. Her research and teaching include critical political theory as well as international organizations, UN peacekeeping, democratization and the role of NGOs in post-conflict governance.“Governmentality, Ontology, Methodology: ssRe-thinking Political Agency in the Global World” – Alternatives: Global, Local, Political – vol 38(4):p. 288-304,. A little unclear if this is late 2013 or early 2014 – The Stated “Version of Record” is Feb 20, 2014, but was originally published online on December 30th, 2013. Obtained via Sage Database.
By questioning substantialist representations of power and subjects, inquiries on the possibilities of political agency are reframed in a way that focuses on power and subjects’ relational character and the contingent processes of their (trans)formation in the context of agonic relations. Options for resistance to governmental scripts are not limited to ‘‘rejection,’’ ‘‘revolution,’’ or ‘‘dispossession’’ to regain a pristine ‘‘freedom from all constraints’’ or an immanent ideal social order. It is found instead in multifarious and contingentstrugglesthat are constituted within the scripts of governmental rationalitiesand at the same time exceed and transform them. This approach questions oversimplifications of the complexities of liberalpolitical rationalities and of their interactions with non-liberal political players and nurtures a radical skepticism about identifying universally good or bad actors or abstract solutions to political problems. Internationalpowerinteracts in complex ways with diverse political spaces and within these spaces it is appropriated, hybridized, redescribed, hijacked, and tinkered with. Governmentality as a heuristic focuses on performing complex diagnostics of events. Itinvites historically situated explorations and careful differentiations rather than overarching demonizations of ‘‘power,’’ romanticizations of the ‘‘rebel’’ or the ‘‘the local.’’ More broadly, theoretical formulations that conceive the subject in non-substantialist terms and focus on processes of subjectification, on the ambiguity of power discourses, and on hybridization as the terrain for political transformation, open ways for reconsidering political agency beyond the dichotomy of oppression/rebellion. These alternative formulations also fosteran ethics of political engagement, to be continuouslytaken up through plural and uncertain practices, that demand continuous attention to ‘‘what happens’’ instead of fixations on ‘‘what ought to be.’’83 Such ethics of engagement would not await the revolution to come or hope for a pristine ‘‘freedom’’ to be regained. Instead, it would constantly attempt to twistthe working ofpower by playing with whatever cards are availableand would require intense processes of reflexivity on the consequences of political choices. To conclude with a famous phrase by Michel Foucault ‘‘my point is not that everything is bad, but that everything is dangerous, which is not exactly the same as bad. If everything is dangerous, then we always have something to do. So my position leads not to apathy but to hyper- and pessimistic activism.’’84

The system is sustainable - the world is improving --- promotes higher living standards, regulatory protections and provisions that protect the most vulnerable

Teixeira 3-7-2017 – PhD in sociology @ U W-Madison, author or co-author of six books (Ruy, “The Optimistic Leftist: Why the 21st Century Will Be Better Than You Think,” Kindle Reader)
The first thing to note about the left's twenty-first century is that living standards should rise very substantially and that is a very good thing. Indeed, the left will play a central role in pushing that trend forward by saving capitalism from its tendencies toward stagnation, periodic crises and inequality— capitalism's "Piketty problem." The right has little interest in doing so; only the left has the proper incentive structure, emerging coalition and ideological commitments to guide capitalism onto a new and healthier growth path that can better support rising living standards. This will take some time; cautious politicians and vested interests will resist change. But the political and economic imperatives of building the opportunity state are clear and will become more so over time, as the postindustrial progressive coalitioncontinues to grow and the demand for better economic performance becomes ever stronger. This demand for better performance will eventually be met, even if gradually, with some setbacks along the way. And as living standards get on a healthier trajectory, much of the left agenda that seems difficult to push today will become much easier to sell to voters. As a result, the opportunity state will be strengthened.
A RICHER WORLD
How much are living standards likely to rise? Far more than people currently think. Consider the developing worldfirst. As globalization and economic development proceed in these countries, we will more and more see not just the decline and possible elimination of extreme poverty, but the rise of large swathes of the developing world to the living standards currently enjoyed by the middle classes of the advanced world. Indeed, conventional projections indicate that world GDP per capita, currently only about one-quarter of today's U.S. level, should be nearly 50 percent higher than the current U.S. level by the end of this century.l Projections for individual countries highlight the sweeping nature of likely economic changes in this century: Turkey, Mexico, Brazil, India, Indonesia and South Africa by 2100 should have GDP per capita levels from 70 percent higher than the current level in the United States to more than double that level. China is projected to have a GDP per capita level around two and a halftimes today's U.S. level. And a long list of countries should have per capita incomes in 2100 from 35 to 65 percent higher than the current U.S. level: Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Cameroon, Senegal, Tanzania, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Cambodia, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, Costa Rica and many others. Another long list of countries is expected to best the current U.S. per capita income level by amounts from 5 to 35 percent by 2100; only a handful of countries, like Zimbabwe, Eritrea and Burundi, are projected to still be below this level by 2100. In short, the world and most people in it should be much richer by the year 2100. That means hundreds of millions—billionsof people attaining a standard of living that would be characterized as middle class in today's advanced countries. The left should see this development as very good news indeed. Many, many more people across the world will be able to lead lives largely free of material suffering, with comfort levels most global citizens can only dream about today. That should be applauded vigorously. And material advance across the world will create much more favorable conditions forthe left's key priorities: the extension and consolidation of democracy; the spread of modern, egalitarian norms on race, gender and sexuality; and, of course, robust mixed economies—opportunity statesthat can combine the support citizens need to get ahead (education, health care, child care, social insurance) with the judicious regulation and state investments in infrastructure and science needed to ensure strong growth. Across the world, all these priorities will become much easier to meet as many more countries become rich by today's standards. Turning to the advanced world, as noted earlier GDP per capita growth in the United States has been quite slow in the first part of the twenty-first century (only 0.9 percent per year) and household/family income growth even slower. But better days are coming, partly because of delayed recovery from the Great Financial Crisis, partly because of ongoing technological advance and partly because of better policies that will increasingly be adopted to mitigate inequality and promote faster growth. Even if future per capita income growth fails to match the pace of the late twentieth century (which was itself slow by the standards of the immediate post—World War Il period), the United States should be a far richer country by midcentury. Thomas Piketty projects that per capita income growth will slow to about 1.2 percent per year.2 Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) projections are somewhat more optimistic at 1.5 percent per year.3 Both, however, are significantly lower than the 1.7 percent per year since 1973 and, especially, the 2.4 percent per year from 1946 to 1973. But even under these projections, which reflect slow growth by historical standards, the United States will become much, much richer by 2050. At 1.2 percent per year, per capita income will be 50 percent higher than it is today; at 1.5 percent per year it will be 66 percent higher. And if the United States can be returned to its long-term post-1870 growth trajectory, 1.9 percent per year (still significantly lower than the postwar years), per capita income will be 90 percent higher at midcentury than today. A much richer country should mean much richer people, especially if growth is reasonably well distributed, as will increasingly be the political and economic imperative going forward. How much richer? Today, median family income is about $70,000 (2014 dollars); at a 1.2 percent growth rate, it would rise to $105,000 by midcentury. Median household income, which includes single-person households, is lower—about $57,000 today—but would still rise to $86,000 by 4 2050 at this growth rate. At a 1.5 percent growth rate, the corresponding figures for median family and household income would be $116,000 and $94,000 by midcentury. And at the historic 1.9 percent per year growth rate, the corresponding median incomes would be $133,000 and $108,000.
A MASS UPPER MIDDLE CLASS
Of course, families and households vary considerably by size, so the same income can mean very different living standards when that income supports a single person or an entire family of four or five. Thus, to clarify the effect of these trends on living standards, it is useful to look at a standard household size and adjust household incomes to fit that standard size. Using a three-person household as the standard, economist Stephen Rose has shown that the median adult in the United States today enjoys a standard of living equivalent to $65,000 for a family of three. Using the same standard, Rose defines the upper middle class as those adults whose household incomes are the equivalent of $100,000 a year for a family of three, but less than $350,000. By this measure, over a quarter (29 percent) of U.S. adults are in the upper middle class today.6 Interestingly, this analysis indicates that the biggest change since 1979 in class positions defined by these standardized income levels has been a dramatic rise in the size of the upper middle class, which more than doubled, from 13 to 29 percent of adults. The rich ($350,000+) have, as popular perception suggests, also increased, but they are still a very small group, only 1.8 percent of adults. Also consistent with popular perception, the Middle middle class ($ 100,000 in adjusted income) has declined over this time period (down 7 points to 32 percent of adults). But it is also the case that the lower middle class in income) has declined (down 7 points to 17 percent), as has the poor/near poor (less than $30,000, down 4 points to 20 percent). Thus, the rise of the upper middle class deserves a place of greater significance in the left's calculations going forward since this group appears to be absorbing the much-publicized declines in middling income groups. Applying the previous growth rates to these data, the median adult by midcentury would have an adjusted income of $98,000 at 1.2 percent growth, $108,000 at 1.5 percent growth and $124,000 at 1.9 percent growth. That means that around half or more of the country by that time would enjoy the living standards of today's upper middle class (or even better). Thus, a reasonable aspiration for the left in advanced countries should be to make current upper-middle-class affluence a majority lifestyle in coming decades and to raise the rest of the population as close to that level as possible. And in the developing world, the goal should be to raise a majority of these countries' populations to the current living standards of the advanced countries' middle middle and lower middle classes. These goals may seem far-fetched, but they are attainable given decent, long-term economic growth and a reasonably fair distribution of the benefits from growth. The left should accept nothing less and, as noted, given the intimate connection in today's world between fair distribution and growth potential, the left is well positioned to be the leader in growth promotion. Indeed, it is really only the left that is well positioned to provide that leadership; the right is infatuated with supply-side and austerity doctrines that are fundamentally counter-productive and anti-growth. And of course the right doesn't take inequality seriously at all, failing especially to see its currently deleterious influence on economic performance.
TWENTY-FIRST-CENTURY OPPORTUNITY STATES
Decent growth and rising living standards, highly desirable in and of themselves, will underpin a whole host of other gains that accord with left priorities. This is because a richer society in which the typical citizen is experiencing a significant elevation of their living standards is a society much more open to investing in collective goods and helping all citizens prosper. Consider the role of education. The role of education in promoting upward mobility is well established but so too is its role in promoting growth and mitigating inequality.z Perhaps no single area will be as central to twenty-first- century opportunity states as this one. Therefore we will likely see massive investment in expanding access to education and improving its quality. This will certainly include the provision of universal pre-school, an intervention whose effectiveness is clear, with strong connections to better educational outcomes, particularly for poorer children. And we will certainly see a very substantial increase in access to a college education. This will include not only a substantially larger share of young people completing a four-year college degree but, critically, the development of a new "standard" level of education beyond the high school diploma. That will be a community college degree or equivalent—in other words, 14 years of education will replace the current 12 as the standard credential needed to satisfy minimal job requirements. To facilitate this transition, we are likely to see, as Hillary Clinton advocated, attendance at community college made essentially free to all qualified applicants. This makes sense; if a community college degree becomes the new high school diploma, then community college, just like high school today, should be made publicly available at no cost. In addition, though it may take longer, we are likely to see, as Bernie Sanders advocated, free tuition at public four-year colleges and universities so that more of those wishing to bolster their credentials beyond 14 years of school can do so. Other aspects of the opportunity state will see considerable expansion as society becomes richer. This will include provision of supplementary retirement accounts with universal enrollment, expansion of Social Security and Obamacare, paid family and medical leave, guaranteed access toaffordable child care, and expanded income, training and public job provision supports for employment. As Lane Kenworthy notes, all of these programs can be seen as forms of public 8 insurance. It is risk management to protect vulnerable citizens who might otherwise not have access to (or lose through misfortune) adequate retirement or employment income, health care or child care. These are all crucial components to a successful modern life, and creating a safety net with public programs helps ensure that everyone has the opportunity to advance. As such, these programs will be critical aspects of the twenty-first-century opportunity state. They will support everyone, but will be particularly important for poorer members of society, who are more likely to need this insurance and, without it, more likely to have their upward mobility stymied. A richer society with healthy growth is both more able to afford this expansion of opportunity and more likely to feel okay about doing so.